Drought Keeps Intensifying In And Around Vermont; Getting Dangerous

A brown hayfield and brown sugar maple leaves in
the background Wednesday near Woodstock, Vermont
as drought continues to intensify. 

 I traveled back and forth between St. Albans in northwest Vermont, and Woodstock in the southeast on Wednesday. 

Our no longer so green Green Mountains scared me a bit. 

I know it's September and you normally see hints of fall colors in the landscape this time of year. But what I saw looked...... scorched. 

On many hillsides, the drought has prematurely turned leaves brown, as if exposed to a nearby fire. 

Underneath those trees, a slight breeze Wednesday afternoon brought down some of those desiccated leaves. Each one landed with a soft, faint dusty clatter on dirt roads, driveways, sidewalks and such. 

Each footstep on walking trails and paths stirred up a bit of dust.  We know the forest fire danger has been high for some time now.  But this drought is getting so intense, I'm beginning to worry about what will happen later this autumn when we get the strong, dry blasts of wind we always get later in September through November. 

We could see wildland fires like we've never seen before. 

Vermont is known for having "asbestos forests."  It's really hard to set them ablaze, at least normally. 

If our forests manage to catch fire, those blazes tend to be relatively small and are extinguished comparatively easily. Flames don't roar through the tree tops. They crackle close to the ground. 

Lots of brown, drought-stricken trees visible on 
this hillside near Quechee, Vermont Wednesday. 

Vermont forests are traditionally too moist, the humidity in the air is too high, and fallen logs and trees are too soggy to support much in the way of flames. 

We don't have those flammable conifers forests of the American West or the blow torch eucalyptus and palm trees that fuel California conflagrations. 

Now, though, climate change is changing the game here in Vermont, as it is virtually everywhere.

What was once almost unthinkable is turning possible. 

Extremes have gotten wild, and we blast from one extreme to the other. After two summers of destructive floods, we're now in a drought more intense than seen in decades, if ever. 

Our asbestos forests are turning into matchsticks. 

I worry that we'll have some super intense Vermont forest fires, the kind that roar through the tree tops like you see on the news when the western United States goes up in flames. I'm not saying that will happen.  I'm saying it's become an improbable possibility. 

It happened in New Jersey last year.  It's been known to happen in places like Maine, in the 1940s, and in Quebec.  We in Vermont might not be prepared for what might be coming, beyond the dry wells, water shortages, damaged crops and struggles with snow making in the ski industry. 

DROUGHT MONITOR NEWS 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out this morning as usual. It shows a still-worsening situation in Vermont, despite some rain last weekend. 

All of Vermont is in drought, of course. It's one of four states - the others being Washington, Utah and Arizona, - in which 100 percent of each state's territory is in at least moderate drought. 

Drought continues to deepen in Vermont, according
to this week's U.S. Drought Monitor.
The more vivid orange is severe drought,
the lighter orange is moderate drought. 

Severe drought has expanded in Vermont, now covering more than half of Vermont, compared to a third of the state last week.  

The severe drought designation covers a much broader section of central Vermont than last week, and also a good chunk of the Northeast Kingdom. 

A spot of extreme drought has cropped up in west central New Hampshire, right near the Vermont border, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Under extreme drought conditions, stream flow is reduced to a thin trickle or stops altogether, many wells go dry, dairy farms struggle financially, crop losses mount and well drillers and water haulers have more business than they can handle. 

Based on weather forecast, I think parts of Vermont are heading for the extreme drought category in coming weeks, unless we are very pleasantly and very surprised by rainfall. 

THE FORECAST

The weather forecast continues to be discouraging and frightening for our region. In other words, the rain dances so far aren't working. 

In the short term, today and Friday will continue the dry weather. The forest fire danger is high for the rest of today, as has so often been the case lately. 

We'd feared the fire danger would be even scarier today, but winds will be somewhat lighter than expectations were a few days ago. Though the air will be dry, the humidity will be slightly higher than in recent days. Dew points will be in the 50s instead of the 40s. Slightly higher humidity nudges the fire risk downward.  

Also there might be some clouds in the sky this afternoon as a weak cold front comes through. That front might even kick off an isolated sprinkle in one or two spots, but don't hold your breath on that one. 

The air will turn dry and clear again tonight and Friday.  There might even be a frost risk again in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom around dawn Friday. 

Predictions have changed some for this weekend. A few days ago, we thought Saturday and Sunday would bring absolutely no rain,

Now, a little light rain does seem to be in the cards.  Any rain is wonderful, but the anticipated showers this weekend will only temporarily slow the pace at which the drought is deepening. 

There's still some questions as to how much rain we'll get, but most forecasts call for light amounts. A few places might not get anything at all. A small minority of computer-generated forecasts call for a good half inch, but most meteorologist are discounting that idea.

Instead, it looks like a package of weak disturbances will blow through, flinging showers here and there, especially Saturday night and Sunday.  Rainfall looks like it will be a quarter inch or less. Probably less.

After that, it's back to dry weather. To break or even bruise the drought a bit, we need frequent, soaking rains. A drenching storm once every three days or so would be ideal. That's not in the cards. 

Instead, strong, dry high pressure will probably park itself over northern New England again next week.  A weak coastal low might try to send moisture our way, but it will likely get shunted off to our south. 

It still looks like our next shot at rain would be around September 19 or 20. From this distance, early indications are that system would also be on the weak side. The overall weather pattern through the end of the month and quite possibly beyond continues to look sadly dry. 

Air Quality Still Crappy In Most Of U.S., Canada Including Vermont As Wildfires Rage

Wildfire smoke from Canada turned the setting sun over
Georgia, Vermont on Sunday into a weird, red dot.
The dot eventually disappeared in the smoke before
reaching the horizon. 

After choking our way through a smoky Sunday, we'll do the same today - here in Vermont and in huge swaths of the United States and Canada.  

Forests across much of Canada and parts or the United States West   are burning ferociously, having dried out in a long, and in many cases hot summer. 

In the Great Lakes and Northeast, and in central and southeast Canada,  the smoke is stuck beneath sprawling, stalled high pressure.  There's nothing coming along to produce a wind shift to flush the crud out.  

Instead, this week, we'll have to wait for the smoke particles to gradually precipitate out of the air to ever so slowly improve the air quality to something other than gross. 

If we eventually do see a change in the weather pattern, it could backfire. Perhaps weather fronts would grab new batches of smoke from the still-raging fires in central Canada and send them to populated areas.

Meanwhile, wildfires are increasing in the United States West, which are also starting to contribute to the bad air. This is turning out to be a rough month for those of us who like to breathe. 

For now, as of this Monday morning, air quality alerts are up in parts of Colorado, all of Wisconsin, Michigan and New York, and almost all of New England. Not to mention huge chunks of Canada. Major global cities in the top ten list of worst air this morning included Detroit, Michigan and Toronto and Montreal, Canada. 

VERMONT SMOKE/WEATHER

This morning's map from IQAir.com shows a band of
bad air across northern New England and southern
Quebec. Click on the image to make it 
bigger and easier to see. 

Here in Vermont, most of the state remains under an air quality alert. The alert that was to expire at midnight last night was extended to at least midnight tonight. 

Early this morning, Bennington and Windham counties were exempted, for now anyway, as the air is marginally cleaner there.

The air over the past couple of days hasn't been the worst it's been this year. We've had moments, like on July 26, where it was incredibly bad, much worse than it is now. But that's not exactly great news. Our latest batch of bad air is seemingly lasting forever. 

Since Saturday, the air has generally and persistently been in the orange "unhealthy for sensitive groups" category since Saturday.  Sometimes it flirts with the red, unhealthy for everybody zone. 

But really, even the unhealthy for sensitive groups doesn't mean the perfectly fine, fitness specimens among us aren't being affected. That persistence that's troubling. The longer you breathe bad air the worse it is for everybody. 

A weak cold front today and tonight won't do much to disperse the smoke.  If the cold front goes far enough south, the air near the Canadian border might temporarily get a little better. The center of strong high pressure in central and northern Quebec has - for now  - clean air under it, so some of that better air might sneak in late today before the smoke returns tonight.

SMOKE AS FOG MACHINE

This time of year, we often see early morning fog form in the valleys. The fog gets less and less likely the longer you've gone without rain. Except when there's smoke. In their forecast discussion,  National Weather Service/South Burlington meteorologist Tyler Danzig gave us an excellent explanation as to why smoke encourages morning fog:

"Canadian wildfire smoke is the culprit for fog development with all other signs pointing to no fog Increased cloud condensation nuclei from the smoke acts as a binding agent, similar to butter and eggs in cooking for water molecules. As it cools overnight, the can collect and condense the moisture more easily than normal air molecules, leading to enhanced fog development."

So yes, we're experience the joys of smoggy mornings lately. Get used to it, I guess. I expect more of this as long as the smoke lingers. 

REST OF THE WEATHER

Dry and warm with an increasing home grown fire danger is the story for the next week at least. 

That weak cold front coming through later today will stall across central New England and dissipate. It has almost no moisture to work with so don't expect any rain. For most of us. It might help squeeze out isolated showers and storms each afternoon today through Thursday,  mostly in the high elevations of southern and central Vermont.

These will produce little rain, and the vast majority of us will stay dry. This type of weather pattern makes me wonder about the risk of "dry lightning." That's from thunderstorms that produce little rain but do generate lightning strikes that can set forest fires. They're common in the West, but more rare here. But I can see that happening in this weather pattern.  

The wicked strong high pressure will keep deeply humid air at bay for most of the week, which would make forests dry out faster in Vermont than we usually see in August.  

The high pressure will also keep super hot weather away from us for the next few days. Daytime temperatures will be in the 80 to 85 degree range for most of us through Thursday, with lows fairly comfortable in the 55 to 62 degree range, give or take.

That's only slightly warmer than average for this time of year. Hotter, and maybe more humid air looks like it might start making a run at us toward Friday or the weekend. 

Oh, one more thing. It did not rain at all in Burlington this weekend. So the record for most consecutive weekend with precipitation stops at 32.  The last time before these past two days we had a rain or snow-free weekend was on December 14-15, 2024.

Vermont Wintry Weather This Morning Goes Badly, But Record Warmth Around The Corner

Webcam grab from nashvillevtweather.net shows a
gorgeous snowy morning today in Nashville, which
is part of Jericho, Vermont. 

Vermont's first minor bout of winter weather did not go well this morning.

Many places in northern and central Vermont had their expected dusting to an inch of snow last night, preceded by some light rain showers.

 As skies partly cleared early this morning in much of the region, temperatures went below freezing.  

Some of the water on highways froze. Especially on bridges and overpasses, where things tend to freeze up first. 

That's always a nasty recipe, as people cruising along over wet pavement suddenly hit ice as arrive at an overpass. Often at too-high speeds.

Combine this with the fact the first icy morning of the season means motorists aren't accustomed to winter driving and you get havoc.

Which is what happened this morning.  I'm actually feeling smug early today because I had arranged to take a vacation day today, so I didn't have to get caught in the traffic jams caused by the mess on Interstate 89.

And it was a mess this morning,.

Apparently, there was some crashes on the Winooski River bridge on Interstate 89 between Winooski and Burlington probably because of black ice there. Other slide offs and crashed were reported further south toward Williston and South Burlington. 

The result was the usual epic traffic backups on Interstate 89, especially the southbound lanes between Colchester and Burlington.  It looks like those traffic backups had largely cleared by around 8:30 a.m. or so. 

Web cam grab from this morning shows southbound
traffic backed up on Interstate 89 in Colchester due
to crashes, probably caused by ice on bridges
and overpasses.

Other roadways in northwestern Vermont had icy areas, too. For instance, Route 15 near Joe's Snack Bar in Jericho was reportedly glare ice. 

All this and just a little snow that froze. Burlington reported a trace of snow, but nothing measurable. 

It was Burlington's first October snowflakes since 2020. Other snowfall reports include 3.0 inches in Underhill, 2.5 inches in Calais, 3 inches in Jericho Center and 1.5 inches in Walden.

Web cameras in much of northern Vermont show what looks to be widespread areas of about an inch of snow. 

Where skies cleared just before dawn up in northern areas, temperatures really bottomed out this morning. I noticed Lyndonville and Newport were down to 20 degrees as of 7 a.m. Lake Eden, Vermont reported 18 degrees as of 8 a.m.

At least the early morning sun shining on the new snow, with a couple patches of leftover fall foliage gave us a very pretty morning, if you weren't on the roads. 

MUCH WARMER TIMES AHEAD

The snow and ice will quickly melt as the sun asserts itself today. It'll be a chilly day for the season, but still gorgeous. It'll only get into the 40s, but bright sun and light winds will make it feel better.

After another very chilly night tonight, especially in eastern Vermont, we're in for a very sharp temperature reversal over the next few days. And dare I say we might also enjoy a bit of beneficial rain.

A strong warm front will approach Vermont tomorrow, so we'll see increasing clouds and winds during the day. Temperatures should get up into the seasonable 50s. 

That warm front will manage to push some showers through Vermont Tuesday night. It looks like southern Vermont could get more than a tenth of an inch of rain with northern areas seeing maybe a quarter to a third of an inch.

That's not much, but it's dry. Not as bad as in southern New England but bad enough to create some fire worries in the Green Mountain State. Over the weekend, a forest fire in Barnard, Vermont, a little northwest of Woodstock, destroyed two camps and injured one camp owner, though the injuries aren't thought to be serious. That fire was expected to continue burning today.

After the warm front blows through, we have a potentially a couple days of record warmth. Wednesday should get to around 70. Highs on Halloween could get well into the 70s.  If it makes it to 77 in Burlington, which is definitely possible, that would be the hottest temperature for so late in the season.

A cold front Thursday evening will bring more showers. It's dicey, but there is hope the showers in Vermont might hold off until the trick or treaters are done spooking up our neighborhoods. Rainfall again won't amount to much, maybe a quarter to a half inch as it looks now, but that will still be needed.

Temperature by Friday and the weekend should be back down to normal for early November - Highs near 50, lows near freezing.  

Vermont Forest Fires Burn As Dry, Warm Spring Rolls On

Forest fire in Killington, as seen from Route 4. Photo by
Paul Holmes, via The Mountain Times

A stubborn forest fire in Killington that has been burning since Saturday re-intensified Wednesday as dry conditions in and around Vermont have officials pleading with people to be careful with outdoor flames. 

The Killington fire started Saturday when a new land owner decided to burn brush and slash from previous logging operations on their rugged property in the Green Mountains near Route 4. 

According to The Mountain Times, the landowner did not have a burn permit, which is required in Killington and most Vermont towns before you can set your brush pile alight. 

The land owner has so far not been publicly identified. 

The Killington fire warden said the new landowner might not have known they needed a burn permit, but that's no excuse.  

Also, duh!! Just walking into the woods and fields on Saturday, or yesterday for that matter, would have immediately told you conditions are dry and you might want to wait for wetter conditions before you burn brush. Fire wardens across the state are disinclined to issue burn permits until things get wetter out there.

For the record, the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation lists today's fire danger in the entire state as high. 

So far, the Killington fire is burning pretty far away from any homes and businesses and no structures are threatened. But it is on steep, very difficult to access terrain, making it hard to fight. 

Since Saturday, personnel from at least 10 fire departments from in and near Rutland County have been battling the fire, reports The Mountain Times. The fire appeared to be largely under control by later Sunday as crews raked fire lines to contain the flames. 

However, it was obvious the fire had re-flared Wednesday, as smoke rose from a hillside north of Route 4. Before Wednesday, the fire had burned around 25 acres, which is much bigger than average for a Vermont forest fire.  

The forest fire danger across Vermont is 
high today. No outdoor burning, please!

According to northeastwildfire.org, the average size of a Vermont forest fire is only about two acres or less. The Green Mountain State usually sees between 200 and 400 of these mostly small fires annually, mostly in the spring.

In the distant past, Vermont had much worse forest fires. In 1908, a total of 106 wildfires burned16,000 acres.  Fires in 1903 burned 5,000 acres. 

Back in Killington, the weather is not cooperating with firefighters.  

Warm temperatures and low humidity are allowing the woods to dry out further, and encouraging the fire. Forecasts call for temperatures in the 80s this afternoon with relative humidity quite low - in the 20 to 30 percent range.  

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and likely on Sunday, but it's unclear whether those showers will amount to all that much. 

The Mountain Times said two smaller forest fires broke out in central Vermont in recent days.  One fire in Pittsfield was also started by an out of state landowner who set a brush pile alight without a permit. Another fire near Chittenden Reservoir was quickly contained.

Much more distant wildfires are affecting Vermont, too. The sky was hazy yesterday, and you'll notice the same today.  That's because winds are carrying smoke aloft from fires in southern and central Canada into New England.

Western New York is under an air quality alert today, in part due to particulates from fires embedded in this haze.