Video: A Quiet Lake Champlain Prepares For Winter

The quietest time on Lake Champlain is now. The summer
is long gone, and winter activity is awaiting a nice 
freeze over. 

 This past Sunday, a day after a super windy day and the day before a sort of, kind of windy day, it was wonderfully calm.  

I happened to be working near Lake Champlain, in and around Swanton, Vermont.  

It was a terrific, quiet early December day in which the lake was clearly preparing itself for winter.  And of course I had to make a quick video.

It was pretty silent. The birds, the summer vacationers, the swimmers and the boaters were long gone.  The summer camps were all buttoned up for the winter. The only noise was the subtle splashing of a few ducks in the water.

Activity returns to the lake soon. This part of the lake freezes over pretty early.  Ice fishing enthusiast will soon take over with their shanties and snowmobiles and such.  Maybe a few ice skaters will glide through this part of the lake too, if the ice is smooth enough and not much snow falls. 

I's been on the mild side lately, so no ice yet.  But there were hints of what was to come. A little ice had formed on exposed rocks and branches that were hit by small waves when the wind was blowing a little the night before. 

Any ice out there is still fleeting. It'll stay mild for at least a few more days, so the winter people will have to wait awhile. For now, the lake is at its quietest, most somber time of year. 

If you can't see the video image below, click on this link to watch this peaceful video. Or, if you see the image below, click on it to view. 

Mauna Loa Eruption Shuts Down Key Climate Monitoring Site

The Mauna Loa Observatory, the world's premier site for
measuring carbon in the atmosphere, has been shut
down by the volcano's eruption. 

 You might have heard that the big Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii is erupting for the first time in 38 years.  

One big problem this eruption has caused is it has temporarily shut down the worlds premier atmospheric carbon monitoring site. 

As Yahoo News reports:

"The Hawaiian station goes back to 1958 and is the main site for the famous Keeling Curve that shows rising carbon dioxide levels from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas that tracks with rising temperatures. Levels of carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa have increased 33 percent since 1958."

The monitoring station is at an elevation of 11,300 feet and has a 131-foot tower that collects air to measure levels of carbon dioxide, radiation and other substances, reports Yahoo News. 

The lava flows are not threatening the actual monitoring station, but the eruption cut power lines further down the mountain. Also, lava crossed the road leading to the observatory. 

The world has something like 300 carbon monitoring stations, so measurements will continue. But Mauna Loa is regarded as the most accurate and cleanest. That's because there's no big population centers nearby. There's not much vegetation around, either. 

And the elevation is so high that it really helps grab a good sample of the atmosphere. It's too high up to contaminate measurements with day to day pollution from cars, houses, factories and such. 

 I'm seeing conflicting reports about whether this is the first time the volcano has screwed up carbon measuring on Mauna Loa. Another Mauna Loa eruption in 1984 halted measurements for 36 days, but that time away was short enough so that it didn't really mess up records, says Yahoo News. But Hawaii News Now says this is the first time in 60 years or more that measurements were interrupted.

The Keeling Curve is named after Charles David Keeling, who in 1958 started taking carbon dioxide measurements atop Mauna Loa.  The Keeling Curve demonstrates the carbon dioxide levels in Earth's atmosphere are currently higher than they've been in 3 million years. 

His son, Ralph Keeling, told Axios that scientists are scrambling to find a similar location to Mauna Loa to take CO2 readings, at least on a temporary basis. 

"In the long run, but I don't know how long, the station will be up again. So the record will continue as before, and we'll have some kind of gap where the data is slightly different or missing," Keeling said. 

Incidentally, some very large volcanic eruptions can temporarily change the climate. Tambora, in 1815, caused a world-wide chill down, leading to New England's "Year Without A Summer" in 1816.

To a lesser extent, Pinatubo in 1991  cooled the world by 1 degree Fahrenheit for a year or two after its eruption.  That almost, briefly wiped out all the heating from climate change at that point in history. 

Most volcanoes, when they do affect the Earth's climate, cool it. But last January's massive Tonga eruption might have the opposite effect. It injected lots of water into the dry stratosphere, which might temporarily accelerate global warming for the next couple of years or so. 

Mauna Loa's eruption is producing lots of lava, but smoke and ash are not rising particularly high in the atmosphere, so this event won't affect the world's climate in any measurable way. 

 

A Windy Vermont December Day, In Video

These Christmas decorations in downtown St. Albans, Vermont
hung in there despite Saturday's gusts to 50 mph or so.

 As I wrote about yesterday, the wind really cranked up in the northern Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York. As always, I like to take video of the weather that surrounds me, so I did during this event, too.    

Winds gusted as high as 66 mph on White's Beach in Grand Isle, and many other places had gusts to or over 50 mph. 

The winds blasted St. Albans, too, taking down a couple trees here and there, and causing power outages scattered about town. (I lost power at my house for a half hour or so, but the great guys and gals at Green Mountain Power worked fast to get my neighborhood's electricity back).

The strongest winds came before dawn, so I missed that excitement. But, the wind came in two surges, one in the morning, and another, slightly less forceful blast in the late afternoon and evening. 

In the video, you can see the wind roaring through the trees around my house just after dawn, when the gusts had already started to die down a bit. The second part of the video is in the late afternoon and evening, when the 40+ mph gusts tossed and jostled the Christmas decorations around town.

The moon also peeked out between the stormy clouds, adding a little spookiness to the scene. This all would have worked great around Halloween. 

To watch the video, you can click on this link if you don't see the image below. Or if you see the image, click on that to watch.  Hang on to your hat while you're watching! 

 

This December's Weather Will Be A Real Wild Card. Here's Why

NOAA on November 30 issued this long range
forecast covering December 8 to 14. It featured
enhanced chances of colder than normal weather
over most of the United States. 

 I've noticed some very conflicting longer range weather forecasts for December, at least for everything after the middle of the upcoming week. 

That's because there are at least two big forces battling it out. Whichever one wins will greatly affect whether its warm, or cold, or snowy or rainy or dry.

The big chatter in social media circles among weather geeks is the Greenland Block gradually setting up. I mentioned this one the other day in a previous post. 

A Greenland block is when massive high pressure sets up over and near Greenland.  When this happens, the jet stream over North America gets squashed further south than it usually is. 

When the jet stream is south like that, it tends to get colder in much of the United States. The jet stream, suppressed to the south, opens the door to frigid Canadian air that can flow southward. Sometimes, the cold air interacts with storm systems passing through, and you can - but not always - get big snowstorms in the eastern United States.

Here in Vermont, it often, but again not always gets cold when there's a Greenland block.  Big snowstorms usually go too far to our east to affect us much, but not always. 

However, with all this in mind, there's another factor in play here big time, at least for now. 

Fighting the Greenland block is a ridge of warm high pressure setting up over and near the southeastern United States. Depending upon how strong this ridge gets, it can make it on the warm side in Vermont. 

Nobody is quite sure if the Greenland block or the southeastern ridge will dominate. For either, it could be win, lose or draw.  Or one can dominate, then the other. 

You see the problem. Long range forecasts are always dicey. With this battle going on, any forecast beyond a few days is very suspect. Take those predictions with a grain of salt. 

To illustrate the forecast iffiness, the first image in this post is the long range 8 to 14 day forecast for the United States that was issued on November 30.  It covers the period from December 8 to 14.  It kind of shows the Greenland block winning, with cold air favored over most of the nation. You can see hints of the southeastern ridge with warm air forecast near the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.

This forecast also anticipated below normal precipitation over New England, as the Greenland block would smush storms too far to our south to affect us that much. 

NOAA yesterday issued this 6 to 10 day forecast that
covers pretty much the same period as the forecast
map above. Now it features mostly warmer than
average temperatures over the eastern half of the nation.
Forecasts this month beyond a few days will be
especially iffy due to questions about how two
large weather systems play with each other. 

Yesterday, the six to 10 outlook was issued, which will cover the period from December 9 to 13.  That's almost the same time period from the earlier, longer range forecast I just mentioned above.

Instead of cold weather dominating the nation, the chill is relegated to the western third of the nation. Warm air would bathe most of the eastern United States. The southeastern warm ridge for the win!  

This updated forecast issued yesterday also favors wetter than normal weather over New England. Because we'd be close to the battle line between cold and warm, so that's where storms would go.

The other big questions are how long will the Greenland block last and how strong will it remain while it's there?  Same issues for the warm southeastern ridge.  Does it move away? Weaken over time? Strengthen? Who knows?

Between the two forecasts I described above, I'd give the edge to the one that was issued yesterday.  Only because it's more recent and covers a time period not as far off in the future as the prediction issued on November 30.

Even so, don't count on either forecast being correct.  I always tell people don't count on forecasts for more than four or five days beyond the current date. That's really, especially true for the rest of this month.  

Whatever happens, we'll probably see an active weather pattern through most of December. That suggests fairly frequent storms, but we don't know whether they will be strong or weak.  We don't know if they will be snow, rain or a mix.  And we don't know how many of these storms will come close enough to Vermont to make a big difference in our weather. 

In the short term, the pattern favors warmth.  A couple of modest storms will come through midweek. They'll produce mostly rain, with maybe just a little ice in the coldest pockets. 

If you want to know what will happen after about Thursday, you're on your own.  I'll let you know later in the week. 

 

Another Vermont Wind Storm: Some Places Surprisingly Windier Than The Last Time

Another round of high winds this morning in Vermont
especially over the northern Champlain Valley.

UPDATE: 2:30 PM

Some of those gusts this morning up in Franklin and Grand Isle counties, Vermont were pretty impressive.

White's Beach in Grand Isle gusted to 66 mph. I imagine 60 mph gusts must have affected the lake shore in Franklin County, too, and perhaps up toward  

Colchester Reef gusted to 54 mph, and North Fairfax saw a 51 mph gusts.

More gusty winds might come through later this afternoon, but it won't be as bad as early this morning.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 During last Wednesday's windy storm, most of the strongest gusts were outside the Champlain Valley, which surprised me a bit. 

An inversion in the lower atmosphere kept the strongest gusts a few thousand feet overhead, keeping gusts to a minimum

Interestingly, a somewhat weaker storm system than Wednesday's has been really rocking the Champlain Valley since a little after midnight. 

Gusts have surely reached at least 50 mph in some exposed locations on Champlain Valley hillsides and near open water.  .Out on Hathaway Point Road near St. Albans Bay, a large tree fell, blocking the roadway. There were two other reports of trees down in St. Albans, suggesting winds there could have reached near 60 mph. I'd believe judging from the howling winds outside my house. 

Reported wind gusts so far include 52 mph on Colchester Reef, 47 mph on Burton Island and 44 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

As of 6:30 a.m. today, power outages were pretty minimal, with just 500 or so homes and businesses without power in the Champlain Valley.  Of course, as soon as I wrote this sentence, power failed at my house and neighborhood. It was only out for less than a half hour, though.

It is awfully windy, but away from Franklin County at least,the gusts are falling just short of being capable of widespread damage, which is great news. As rain approaches and overtakes Vermont later this morning and early this afternoon, the wind will tend to diminish some. 

As a cold front crosses Vermont this afternoon, there might be renewed strong wind for a time along and just behind the front. 

A wind advisory is in effect for the Champlain Valley through 6 p.m. today. 

Things should be calmer by tomorrow.

Windy days are common in the late autumn and winter, especially in the Champlain Valley, where south winds funnel between the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. 

This autumn had been until recently unusually calm, with not many windy days. But it has gotten gustier. Today is the fourth day in a row in Burlington with gusts of at least 36 mph. 

It's getting into winter, so expect plenty more blustery days ahead. 

Vermont Meteorological Winter Starts, Ma Nature Gets The Memo

Snow showers start to obscure the view of Lake Champlain
from St. Albans, Vermont on Thursday, December 1
Gusty, cold winds and snow showers were appropriate
conditions for the start of meteorological winter. 

 Yesterday, December 1, was the start of meteorological winter. 

It's the period from December 1 through February 28 (or February 29 on leap years) that climatologists and others regard as winter. 

Astronomical winter is something completely different, of course. That starts on December 21.  

Meteorological winter is set up the way it is, as it makes it easier to compare and contrast past winters and past seasons. 

I noticed here in Vermont, Ma Nature got the memo regarding meteorological winter. Gone was the mild weather on November 30.  It was winter.  (Video at bottom of this post proves it)

On Thursday, bursts of snow came out of the sky, propelled by gusty northwest winds. It was kind of cold, too, with temperatures holding in the 30s.

It wasn't anything unusual for this time of year. Temperatures were actually near normal. But it felt like a winter day, that's for sure. 

Normal temperatures are continuing to plummet, so winter is settling in.  The normal mean temperature today is 33 degrees, at least in Burlington. By New Year's Eve, "normal" will be ten degrees colder than that. 

Actual weather seems to be aiming squarely toward winter, too. Oh, sure, today will be nice enough, and Saturday will be downright mild with a little rain - not snow - thrown into the mix. 

But it will get more and more wintry as we go through the upcoming week. Again, nothing that out of the ordinary for a Vermont December, but definitely winter. 

Long range forecasts also keep us mostly colder than average through the middle of December. 

As winter seemed to settle in yesterday, I, as I often do, took some video clips of a gusty, sometimes snowy December 1 in St. Albans, Vermont.

You can see snow showers move in from the north, gradually obscuring the view of the lake. Then gusts of wind and waves of snow flakes move through. 

You can click on this link to see the video. Or, if you see the image of the video below, click on that to view: 

Vermont November Was Warm, Wet And Weird

Strong storms erupted over northwestern Vermont on 
November 6, the same day an all time record high for 
the month of November was set in Burlington. November
was an odd month, for sure. 

 Another warm Vermont  is in the books as November came to a close yesterday. 

Many months in 2022 across Vermont were pretty mellow, with not a lot of extremes. November certainly wasn't one of those months. 

The first part of November saw all time record highs for the month. This was followed by a long stretch of colder than average weather. Then the month finished up with some yo-yo temperatures, and a fair amount of wind. 

Overall, the average temperature for November in Burlington worked out to 43.5 degrees. That tied with 2015 as the second warmest November on record. (The warmest November was in 1948, with a mean temperature of 44.4 degrees).

With that burst of unseasonable heat at the start of the month worked in, all of Vermont was quite a bit warmer than average for the month.  Montpelier, with a mean temperature of 40.9 degrees, was a pretty whopping 6.5 degrees on the warm side. 

Most other places, including St. Johnsbury and Bennington, were nearly 4 degrees on the warm side. 

November, 2022 was on the wet side, too.  That's a good thing. Ground water is now charged up and robust as we head into the winter. That's great for ski areas, who will need water for snow making. And it will prevent wells from going dry over the winter.  Plus, we'll be set up for decent moisture in the spring, unless of course winter turns out to be extraordinarily dry. 

Rainfall wasn't extreme, but the 3.6 inches that fell on Burlington was a good three quarters of an inch above normal.  Far northwestern Vermont was even wetter, thanks to two very wet storms at the beginning and middle of the month. 

Most other stations in Vermont were very roughly a half inch or so wetter than average. 

It was a warm month, so snowfall was understandably on the light side. The three inches Burlington reported came all in one day, and was 2.7 inches below normal for November. 

The extremes at the start of the month were wild to say the least. 

On November 6, Burlington reached 76 degrees, setting a new all-time record high for the entire month of November. Lebanon, New Hampshire, a good proxy for White River Junction, hit 78 degrees. So did Springfield, Vermont.  It was 75 in Bennington. Montpelier, Rutland and St. Johnsbury all topped out at 74 degrees. 

The glow of a mild sunset in my yard in St. Albans, 
Vermont on November 26.  November, and autumn,
2022 as a whole were in the top 10 warmest list 

I don't believe Vermont set a statewide record in November. That honor still goes to the 81 degrees in Bellows Falls in 1950.

Even more impressive were some of the overnight "lows" in early November. The low temperature in Burlington on November 6 was 62 degrees. That's the warmest "low" on record for Burlington. It also is just about a normal low for mid-July. 

The November 6 warmth also triggered several lines of rather strong thunderstorms mostly in northwestern Vermont. This, of course is highly unusual for November, but there you go. 

Another spell of record warmth kept temperatures near 70 degrees in the pre-dawn hours of November 12.

After that, things abruptly flipped.  For a time in mid-November, about 98 percent of the Lower 48 was colder than normal.  That's very much an unusually large amount of real estate to be colder than average.

Here in Vermont, the heat of early November was eroded by eleven consecutive days of colder than  normal weather. This chilly spell wasn't extreme by any means, and no record lows were threatened. But it was a reminder that winter is on the way. 

The closing week of the month was all over the place, as we had an active weather pattern than flung a series of warm and cold fronts through the North Country. 

Overall, east of the Mississippi Valley, November in the United States was warmer than average, with several cities, especially in the Northeast and in Florida, having top ten warmest Novembers.

West of the Mississippi was cold, with cities reporting having among the top ten coldest Novembers in 2022. So yeah, it was a month of extremes. 

WARM AUTUMN, BUT....

Meteorological autumn ran from September 1 to November 30.   Climatologists break up the seasons that way basically for ease of record keeping.

With November's numbers now in, Burlington had its fifth warmest meteorological autumn with a mean temperature of 52.6. Remarkably, seven of the top 10 warmest autumns have occurred since 2011. That is one incredible autumn warming trend in the past decade or so.

Meteorological winter, at least the beginning of it, might not be so abnormally warm. Although the first few days of December might be a little on the warm side, the same is not really in the cards for the rest of the month. At least if long range forecasts are to be believed. 

A pattern known as the "Greenland Block" seems to be setting up. That means a huge high pressure system sets up over and near Greenland.

This, in turn squashes the jet stream over North America southward.  When that happens, the door is wide open for cold Canadian air to sink into much of the United States, including New England.

Sometimes, but not always, this pattern can also be stormy for New England. The devil is in the details, so we don't know how cold or how stormy the middle two weeks of December turn out. But at the moment, odds are favoring a December that's on the chilly side.