For Vermont Storm Addicts Out There, A Recent Video

Back on September 8, some strong to severe thunderstorms rolled across Vermont

As usual, I like to take videos of said storms. The video in this post is around South Burlington and Burlington of the storm and its aftermath. 

Bonus: Part of the storm's aftermath was absolutely gorgeous.

 I shot the storm with an iPhone and something is funky with the microphone, so sorry about the sound issues.

Snarky me often calls videos of big storms such as violent hurricanes, tornadoes and floods, "weather porn."  Although fun to watch, this particular video is probably more R rated. Sexy enough, but not weather porn.

By the way, word to the wise. Don't Google the phrase "weather porn."  It leads you to some really weird stuff. 

Anyway, back to my storm video.  Many mobile users have trouble seeing videos on this here blog thingy when I insert the video into the blog. If you have that trouble, just click right here on this hyperlink to view. 

If you see the video displayed click on the arrow, then the YouTube logo for best viewing.  And as those pesky YouTubers say, feel free to subscribe to my channel.

Here's the vid!

Definite Cracks In That "Never Ending Summer" Regime

Weather patterns nationally and locally
are finally beginning to transition to
one more typical of autumn

Here in Vermont and across most of the nation, summer has continued unabated well into September, with no sign that the season is transitioning to autumn.  

Until now.

The pillars of summer's dominance are falling like dominoes, as rain and chilly air begin to make real inroads. And did somebody say snow?

Relax. There's no snow is in the Vermont forecast just yet. I'm talking about the western mountains. 

Normally, as we go into autumn, the jet stream gets more energetic and begins to slip south.  This allows larger storm systems to form and create widespread rains. It also increasingly lets cold air trapped in Canada loose,  sending it down on the United States.

During the first two weeks of September, t seemed like this transition was not showing the usual signs of starting.  Now, it has.

One welcome aspect of that shift happened in drought and wildfire stricken British Columbia, and Washington and Oregon in the United States.

As that jet stream sank south, it allowed an atmospheric river of moisture from the Pacific Ocean to smack into these areas. Some areas have seen up to four inches of rain. This will end or at least seriously reduce the risk of wildfires in these areas.

Some of the rain is brushing far northern California, but unfortunately most of that state will remain in drought and wildfire risk for some time yet.

It'll be cold enough behind that western storm to unleash a little snow by Monday in the high elevations of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.  That's normal for this time of year, but still a sign of the season.

The first frost advisories of the season were up this morning in northern Minnesota, too. Again, normal, but still.

Here in Vermont, long range forecasts for summer warmth through the end of the month have fallen by the wayside.  Warm weather will not last as long as previous forecasts suggested. That's not to say we, or other parts of the nation won't have spells of warm weather between now and October.  It's just that it won't be consistently warm anymore. 

There's no sign of extreme cold coming up, but you will feel autumn's onset, especially toward the end of next week.

Before then, a brief intrusion of cooler air will drop temperatures into the mid and upper 30s Sunday night in the coldest hollows and the 40s elsewhere.  Once again, that's nothing unusual, but will still be the coldest weather since the end of May or very early June.

But at least it will be sunny and VERY pleasant Sunday and Monday, too.  But a big dip in the jet stream is coming, though there's a lot of argument about when later in the week that will happen.

When it does, you'll notice a transition to serious fall weather. Again, nothing wild for Vermont in September, but it sure won't be beach weather!  

Giant Sequoias Greatly Endangered By Forest Management, Climate Change And Current Fire

The famed General Sherman sequoia, probably
2,500 years old, wrapped in aluminum foil
in an attempt to save it from an oncoming
wildfire this week. Photo from National
Park Service.

It comes down to this now, apparently.

We're killing living things that are thousands of years old through climate change. Wildfires are closing in on California's giant sequoias as I write this. 

As the BBC reports:

"Officials fear the fire could reach the Giant Forest, a grove of some of the world's biggest trees, within hours. 

The forest hosts some 2,000 sequoias, including the 275-foot General Sherman, the biggest tree by volume on Earth and about 2,500 years old."

In desperation, crews have wrapped the base of the General Sherman and other giant sequoias in aluminum foil in a last ditch attempt to save them. 

Sequoias are actually pretty fire resistant.  Over the centuries, many wildfires have burned through sequoia groves. 

But those fires burned along the ground, perhaps scorching the lower trunks of these trees but leaving the mid and upper parts of the trees green.  Sequoias usually lack lower branches that can catch fire and then spread flames upward through the tree.

All this leaves sequoias pretty much intact in a wildfire.  

What's new is the and aggressive wildfires that have roared across California in recent years. These fires are so intense that an entire sequoia can go up in flames as flames shoot ridiculously skyward. Those flames burn entire sequoias, destroying them.

A combination of poor forest management that allowed dense, flammable undergrowth to flourish, and climate change, threatens the existence of sequoias.

Since sequoias have a storied relationship with Americans, that would be yet another big climate change tragedy on top of many others.

Last year, an intense wildfire killed more than 10,000 sequoias, representing nearly 14 percent of the world's population of these trees, noted NPR in a report aired this morning. The dead sequoias are now black, tragic, immense dead poles sticking high up into the air. 

With the new fire looming today, all we can do is hope that firefighters can keep the most destructive flames at bay and save the sequoias, including the beloved General Sherman. 

Perfect Weather: In The Eye Of The Beholder But Thursday Was A Good Candidate

I paused in under a sugar maple in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard yesterday to take note of the most perfect 
weather day of 2021, at least in my opinion

My bad.

Yesterday morning, I should have issued a Perfect Weather Warning for central and northern Vermont.

What wasn't to love about Thursday?  Deep blue skies decorated with just a few lovely clouds, wonderfully comfortable temperatures, a slight breeze, early hints of fall color glinting in the pristine air. 

Kinda why we live in Vermont, huh?

I declared yesterday the best weather day of 2021, at least in northern and central Vermont.  Sorry, far southern Vermont, you had a few extra clouds.

Perfect weather is in the eye of the beholder, of course. Some people think 95 degrees with high humidity is the best conditions possible. Others prefer winter cold and blizzards as their best weather.  There's a few crazy storm chasers out there who think perfect weather consists of powerful tornadoes marauding across the Great Plains landscape.

My definition of perfection was yesterday, though. Dawn broke with temperatures in the low 50s.  That meant it was comfortable for sleeping, but the air that got into the house through open windows wasn't too cold.

There was patchy ground fog around, and it's always wonderful to see the sun's rays pierce the fog brilliantly as it lifts.

The day went on to give us deep blue sky.  Air behind a cold front the day before came straight down from Quebec, shunting western wildfire smoke away from us.  Even from a distance, because there was no haze, Vermont's Green Mountains looked, well, green. 

The now lower sun angle of September made the light feel warm, but not hot. Temperatures climbed into the mid 70s by afternoon. I spend some time working rather hard digging in the garden.  I had plenty of energy because there was no heat or humidity to drain me. 

We have so many gloomy days over the course of a year in Vermont that a day like Thursday was one to savor. 

Delightful weather can treat us any time of year, of course.  But September is a prime great weather month here in New England. 

The summer heat has relaxed, so temperatures are often comfortable.   You can get weather like thi sin the spring, too. But spring is more volatile than September.  Spring storm systems, still energized by a just ended winter, tend to give us more extremes in the spring.

Which is why you need to brace for late season snows, severe thunderstorms and bouts of heavy rain in the spring. 

In September, storm systems in general are weaker because they haven't ramped up from the summer doldrums yet. Sure a cold front can still sometimes stir up some nasty thunderstorms every once in a great while. Wednesday was an example of that.   

Those days are exceptions, though.

The only extremes we get in September are when hurricanes venture north into New England, which is fairly rare. Of course when a hurricane does happen, things go from unpleasant to disastrous in a hurry.  Nobody wants a repeat of the Great Hurricane of September, 1938, for instance.

Overall, though, September is a moment on the weather timeline to pause and enjoy.  The sky is still blue the gardens are still providing a wonderful harvest. The air is often soft and bright and clean.

While we might not have the perfection of Thursday coming up every day for the next couple of weeks, there's plenty of wonderful weather in the cards.

The clouds you saw in the sky this morning should at least partly clear by this afternoon, giving us another bright, comfortable day. 

Though Saturday will features scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder, especially north, it will by no means become a washout. Sunday looks absolutely delightful and could rival Thursday for awesomeness.

The first half of next week looks nice, too.

Enjoy it.  Soon enough, you'll be shoveling snow, scraping ice off your windshield while you desperately try to warm up the car.  You'll be blasted by icy winds, and you'll fall and hurt your hip on your slippery driveway. Your heating bills will skyrocket, and cabin fever will inspire murderous thoughts about your loving significant other. 

Put that out of your mind. When the sun comes out today, put on your sunglasses, a little sunscreen and bathe in that wonderful early autumn air.  

Vermont Storms Behaved As Expected; Summer In Autumn Resumes

As we've seen several times this month, a generally stormy
Vermont day ends with a big sunset. View from St.
Albans, Vermont last evening.

 Well, it could have been worse.

Severe thunderstorms developed pretty much as expected across the southeastern half of Vermont Wednesday, doing the usual damage to trees and power lines in some towns throughout the region. 

The strongest cluster of storms at least in Vermont, started in western Rutland County and moved east-northeast and crossed the border into New Hampshire part way between White River Junction and St. Johnsbury. 

Trees and branches came down along this line in Middletown Springs, then heading over the Green Mountains to Bridgewater (near Killington), then up toward Ryegate and Newbury in the Connecticut River Valley.  

Though forecasts called for a low risk of tornadoes with Wednesday's storms, there's so far no evidence anything of the sort happened, at least in Vermont.   Preliminary indications are that it was all straight-line winds. There was briefly a tornado warning in southern Maine, but it's unknown if one actually touched down.

Northwestern Vermont, as expected, missed out on the "fun" on Wednesday.  Thunderstorms rolled through early in the morning, and a few brief downpours zipped on through in the early afternoon.  My rain gauge in St. Albans caught right around a half inch of rain Wednesday.

That's pretty much it for rain for at least a week, aside from some hit and miss stuff that might come along Saturday afternoon and evening.  

The front that caused the storms was producing heavy rain in southern New England this morning. There were even a few severe thunderstorms on and near Cape Cod. That bad weather is slow to move on  in part because a big, fat ridge of high pressure is building over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada.

Hibiscus plant still thriving out on my St. Albans, Vermont
deck as warm September weather continues. 

The front will wash out eventually as a tropical system moves by offshore, not bothering with  us at all.

This big, fat high pressure will ensure that summer in September continues on for at least a week, if not more.  

Aside from those pesky Saturday showers,  expect a fair amount of sunshine for quite awhile.  It'll be just sort of warm for this time of year at first. Highs each day through Sunday will be in the 70s, which is a little above normal. 

It'll get even toastier by the middle of next week.  Highs have a shot of reaching the mid-80s, at a time of year when barely 70 degrees just about does it for daytime highs. 

I'm not sure how all this warm weather will affect the fall foliage season.  The best colors come after sunny Septembers that have plenty of chilly nights. We are more or less getting the sun, but certainly not the chill. It STILL hasn't been below 50 yet this month in Burlington, and it doesn't look like it will get that chilly in the foreseeable future.

We'll get slapped in the face by cold weather eventually, but it isn't going to happen any time soon. Your garden is safe from frost.

UPDATE: Severe Storms Sweeping Southern Central Vermont; Will Continue Rest Of Afternoon

Best chance of severe thunderstorms 
today is in yellow shaded area.

UPDATE 5:30 p.m. Wednesday

It's just about over for Vermont, anyway, as of 5:30 p.m.

Most if not all the severe storms have moved east of Vermont, though a few strong ones are still possible in far southern Vermont.

The only thing we really have to watch out for now is the possibility of flooding in Bennington County.

Just over the border into New York State from Bennington County, up to four inches of rain has fallen and more is coming down. Flash flooding, some fairly serious, is ongoing there.

One last batch of heavy rain is headed toward Bennington County, and that could be enough to set off some local flash flooding in that area. Iffy, but possible.

A pretty good slug of rain seems to be headed toward central Vermont, too, but it won't be enough to cause flooding. 

As usual, far northwestern Vermont, pretty much the only part of the state that needs rain, kinda missed out. My rain gauge in St. Albans collected a half inch of rain today.

No substantial rain is in the forecast for the next week. 

Several towns in southern and eastern Vermont have reported tree damage from severe thunderstorms today. 

UPDATE: 2:30 p.m. Wednesday 

As of 2:30 p.m., the expected severe storms have developed as expected.

They seemed to have formed into two lines.

The stronger of the two was further south, from near Rutland northeastward to east of Montpelier.

Many of these storms in this southern line so far have remained somewhat separate from one another, giving rise to the risk that they could more easily spin, and potentially drop a quick tornado.

So far there's no evidence of this, but severe thunderstorm warnings have been flying down in that neck of the woods.

This line of storms will slowly sink southward while strong to severe storms race northeastward along that line. 

The second line ran from Chittenden County to the Northeast Kingdom and was following roughly the same pattern as the one further south.

Although not as strong as the southern line, some of the storms in the northern line are quite strong, and could become severe as the line slowly sinks south and east.

Far northwestern Vermont is escaping this with showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder for the next couple of hours.

I won't be chasing these storms today because I got out of work a little to late to catch up with them. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 

 Up here in St. Albans, Vermont dawn came with thunder, lightning and downpours, part of that set up for a stormy Wednesday. 

The morning storms up here hinted at today's set up, which has been consistently forecast for days now. Southern Vermont is the storm target.

I know that sounds a bit strange, since all the activity early this morning was up north and the south stayed dry. 

However, when thunderstorms go through a particular spot early in the morning,  more stable air is usually left in their wake.  That's the case here, and will help to squelch storms later this morning and afternoon. Lingering clouds from the storms will hold temperatures down a bit.

Plus, the morning storms were an indication that northwestern Vermont is closer to the cold front that will cause today's problems. The cold front will come through here early enough in the afternoon so that storms won't have a great chance to develop much in the heat of the day.

Still, the north could see a few gusty, rainy storms later today, and non-thunderstorm southerly winds could gust to 40 mph in the Champlain Valley before the cold front arrives, but let's not focus so much on that.

Roughly the southeastern third of Vermont is the target, along with much of New Hampshire, southwestern Maine and the Hudson Valley of New York.

In these areas, some sun will continue to shine into the afternoon.  It has turned humid.  Temperatures will pop up into the low 80s.  Those are many of the ingredients you need to set things off.

Also, on the check list is that approaching cold front to create lift in the atmosphere that would aid and abet storms. And strong winds aloft to help maintain the storms.  The winds high above will also change direction with height, so most of the ingredients are there. 

Strong straight line winds are the main threat, but we'll have to watch for hail and even a brief spin up tornado. A quick twister is possible, though rather unlikely. 

The low chance of tornadoes will come if supercells develop.  These are rotating thunderstorms, not attached to each other like the lines of storms we usually see.  If that happens, there could be a few spin ups.

Today's set up, though, suggests that any individual supercells that form will fairly quickly merge into a line of storms.  That reduces the already low tornado risk somewhat more, but also increases the chances of strong, damaging straight line winds.

I do think some wind damage reports are inevitable today in the areas I talked about.

It looks mid afternoon to early evening is the hot time for the storms today in southern Vermont. They probably will go later than that once you get into New Hampshire and Maine. 

Low but not zero chance of tornadoes today in
green and especially brown shaded area.

Let's insert the usual caveat here:  While most everyone in Vermont, especially southern Vermont, will see showers and storms, not everyone will be "lucky" enough to be hit with a dangerous, damaging storm. The actual scary ones will be hit and miss. 

Torrential downpours are likely with the storms. Though there might be some street flooding and local minor washouts, the storms should be moving along just fast enough to prevent severe flash flooding.

For those under the risk of severe storms today, you know the drill.  Just do your normal stuff, but have a way to get storm warnings, like a weather radio or a reputable source like major local news media like TV and radio stations. 

If you get a severe thunderstorm or God forbid a tornado warning, head indoors immediately.  In the unlikely event of a tornado warning, the basement is your best bet. Failing that, a windowless interior room on the first floor of a sturdy building is best. 

It's kind of late in the season for this type of severe weather outbreak, but these things can and do occur in September every once in awhile.

This will all be out of our hair by tonight, and the forecasts still calls for several days of warm, mostly dry weather. (Could be a few light showers Saturday, we'll see).

Weather geeks out there might have heard of one run of the American computer model known as the GFS that has a strong hurricane racing northward through New England around September 27.  That run of the computer model depicts a hurricane similar to the Great Storm of 1938.

Before you get your panties in a bunch with panic, I wouldn't worry about that just yet. Let's listen to famous tornado chaser Josh Morgerman (icyclone on Twitter), who does have a way with words. "You New Englanders need to cool it with your 1938 fantasies, ya here? Put the nudie magazine (00Z GFS) away."

Chances are there will be some sort of tropical system off the East Coast sometime toward the end of the month, but first, we don't know for sure there will actually be such a system, and two, if there is a storm the forecast is so long range as to be almost meaningless. For the record, a subsequent run of the GFS six hours after the above mentioned one showed a hurricane passing well east of New England.

I'd give it another 10 days.  If the models are still advertising a New England hurricane then, that's the time to worry. But right now I'm really betting against such a scenario.

Wednesday Vermont Storm Update And Nicholas

Best chances of severe storms Wednesday look to be in
the yellow zone. Marginal risk in dark green. Graphic
is from the National Weather Service in South 
Burlington, using data from NOAA's Storm
Prediction Center.

We're still looking at just one day over the next week or more in which we here in Vermont could have some tricky weather.  

That's tomorrow.  

The forecast still calls for the risk of some strong to severe storms, especially in southern and eastern Vermont. 

You know the drill: Some storms might have damaging winds, torrential downpours could set off a local flash flood or two, and the lightning will be dangerous.

You know this part of the drill, too: Southern Vermont will be the real target, while northern Vermont, especially the northwest, escapes the weather to an extent. 

The best chance of severe storms for now looks to be south and east of a roughly Rutland to St. Johnsbury line. Still, there could be a few isolated instances of strong winds in central and even northern Vermont. In this area. NOAA"s Storm Prediction Center has at least a slight risk of severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has been toying with the idea of boosting the risk level of severe weather to "enhanced," which is level 3 in a 5 point risk scale. But due to some uncertainty in the forecast, they're keeping it at slight risk for now. That's level 2 in the 5 point risk scale.

As a warm front comes through tonight, you might be awakened by the sound of rain on the roof and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Nothing severe with that batch of showers and storms, though. 

When you get up tomorrow morning, the air will have a more humid feel to it. That'll set us up for the storms as a cold front slowly comes in from northern New York.

Up in northwest Vermont, lots of clouds will hold down instability, and the best upper air support for strong storms will be to the south. So, there could be some downpours, some lightning, maybe just a little wind up in the that neck of woods.

The morning and early afternoon will feature at least some sun in southern Vermont, which will help to make the atmosphere more unstable.  That means it'll be easier to form strong updrafts that give rise to those towering thunderstorm clouds. 

Stronger winds aloft will help maintain the storms.  When the upper level winds aren't very strong, the towering thunderstorm clouds remain more or less vertical.  That means the warm moist updraft with thunderstorms gets mixed up with the cold downdraft with the storm's rain, and the overall storm falls apart. It's too disorganized.

If there's strong wind aloft, the big towers of the thunderstorms are tilted. That means the warm, wet updraft that sustains the thunderstorm stays on one side of big towering cloud, while the cold, gusty downpours stay out ahead of the updraft, and doesn't interfere with it.   The updrafts and downdrafts don't get mixed up with each other, so the storm can sustain itself and get stronger.  

That's the kind of deal southern Vermont faces tomorrow. It's a pretty typical setup for strong to severe thunderstorms. 

Those strong upper level winds will also change direction with height. That could cause some storms to rotate. Which in some cases can actually spin up a tornado.  The Storm Prediction Center has a very low, but not zero risk of a couple tornadoes in southeastern Vermont, southern New Hampshire and southern Maine Wednesday.

But the main threat will be damaging straight line winds with the storms.

After all that goes by, we stay in some benign, warm weather for several days at least.  There could be a couple showers Saturday, but nothing widespread. Temperatures on many afternoons over the next week will flirt with a summery 80 degrees.

NICHOLAS

Tropical Storm Nicholas managed to increase to hurricane status for a short time overnight just before making landfall in Texas.  Top winds at landfall were 75 mph.

But as we mentioned yesterday, wind isn't the big problem here.  There was a fair bit of storm surge flooding overnight.  Most of the streets in downtown Galveston, Texas were under water from the surge that came in from the Gulf of Mexico, and there is storm surge damage throughout the mid-Texas coast.

Nicholas is forecast to more or less stall over 
Louisiana, which will unleash another disaster
on the state, this time devastating floods.

The even bigger problem is the torrential rain falling on the upper Texas coast and moving into Louisiana. They're still forecasting up to 20 inches of rain. 

Video from Live Storms Media from the Texas Coast last night showed an incredible amount of water pouring from the skies on top of the storm surge.  

Nicholas will diminish to a tropical depression, but will nearly stall over Louisiana this week. That will unleash tremendous amounts of rain on the storm-beleaguered state, and they will have another big disaster on their hands, this time from flooding. 

Even though the wind wasn't extreme, more than a half million people are without power in Houston, surrounding areas and into Louisiana. That doesn't include the people in Louisiana still without electricity from Hurricane Ida a few weeks ago.

The United States really seems to be a target for hurricanes and tropical storms this year. So far, eight such storms have hit the U.S.  

After Nicholas, there's nothing in the next couple of days that is threatening the United States, but there's still plenty of time left in hurricane season for more to hit.