Small Storm In Middle Of Nowhere To Become Very Powerful Hurricane. Then What?

Brand new Tropical Storm Lee, halfway between Africa and
the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, already has "that look"
on satellite photos, suggesting it will turn into a very
powerful hurricane, as forecasters anticipate.

 A tropical depression - often a precursor to a tropical storm or hurricane, formed today in the middle of nowhere, Atlantic Ocean. 

By late this afternoon, it had already strengthened into Tropical Storm Lee. 

At last check, it was about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, a north/south chain of islands that marks the extreme northeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea.

This storm, a nothing burger as of early Tuesday afternoon, wouldn't even be worth mentioning except that forecasters are way more confident than usual in this type of situation that this will become a very powerful hurricane. 

Conditions are nearly perfect for what will eventually be Hurricane Lee to strengthen into a monster. The water it's going over is at record warm levels. 

Super warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes. Upper level winds over the storm are expected to be quite light, especially starting mid to late week. That's another necessary ingredient for a monster storm.

By Sunday, the National Hurricane Center expects top winds with Lee to be 145 mph.  It could be even stronger. Some of the computer models suggest it will be stronger than that. 

With such a strong hurricane out there, it's natural to start worrying about any land it might hit. This is a Cape Verde hurricane, so named because that's the area where it originated.

Cape Verde hurricanes are notorious for being extreme disasters. Huge hurricanes ranging from the Great New England hurricane of 1938 to Hurricane Dorian in 2019 were Cape Verde types.

Nobody knows for sure where this storm will end up, but early signs are actually kind of encouraging.  The current hope is that it will go north of the Lesser Antilles and north of Puerto Rico, which would minimize damage.

Then what?  At that point, a week from now,  Lee will still be heading toward the United States, which of course would be really bad.

Again, no guarantees, but early signs are again hopeful.  If it strengthens quickly, chances are it will make a north turn earlier, missing the East Coast. If stays weak until it gets closer to the Caribbean, then it will probably track further west, becoming a bigger threat to the East Coast.

Current forecasts have Lee getting really strong early in its life, which could help. 

Also, the heat ridge that's now baking Vermont and the rest of the eastern United States and southeastern Canada will be replaced by a much cooler dip in the jet stream within a week.

This dip, called a trough, if it sets up over the eastern United States, will tend to deflect Lee, making it move north, then northeast well off the coast. 

Again, though, Lee bears watching. If the trough in the eastern United States turns out weaker than expected, or further west than forecast, that could open the door for the hurricane to turn north the East Coast of the United States or into southeastern Canada. 

I did see one computer run that had this smashing into New England as a powerful hurricane. However, for complicated reasons, that scenario didn't make meteorological sense. This afternoon's run of the American computer model today had it hitting Cape Cod and eastern Maine around September 16.  I also find that prognostication unconvincing. 

Computer model forecasts beyond five days are often notoriously inaccurate. 

However, unpleasant surprises have happened. Forecasts had called for Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Florence in 2018 to curve northward and miss the United States. Florence ended up striking North Carolina and Irma hit Florida. Both were Cape Verde hurricanes, and both caused billions of dollars in damage.

In any event, it's way, way too early to think about how close Lee comes to the East Coast. We'll know much more in about four to seven days from now.  Until then, try not to wilt in the tropical heat that has engulfed Vermont this week. 

Tuesday Vermont Heat Update: It Gets Worse

A hot, hazy view of Lake Champlain in Burlington,
Vermont on Monday.

To my mild surprise, it made it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Monday, making a late addition to this year's tally of 90 degree days in the Champlain Valley. 

That brings us to seven such days this year, and it looks like we'll add a couple more before fall arrives.

This hot spell is arguably turning into the most uncomfortable one of the year, too, though an early July heat wave was pretty much as bad as this one. 

In this case, the humidity is high, there aren't any cooling breezes to speak of, and the heat is grinding on for several days. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington wrote in its forecast discussion yesterday:

"Remember, heat impacts are cumulative, meaning they increase over time. It will be important to monitor your health and water intake over the next several days, especially in the noon to 7 p.m. time frame. Vulnerable populations, like those without access to air conditioning, will be at highest risk of heat illness."

In that spirit, the NWS office has expanded the heat advisory today to include pretty much all of Vermont.  Officially a heat index of 95 is needed to declare an advisory, but in long hot spells like this one, with the stress building day by day, an advisory is out just to alert people to take care. 

As I mentioned yesterday, it's a great idea to check on those vulnerable people the NWS refers to.  

Schools are reopening today, and they'll be hot, too. So far, as of 6:30 this morning, I don't see any school closings or early closings this afternoon.

Today and tomorrow will probably be a bit hotter than Monday, so it's intensifying. Thursday is still a wild card. We know it will be very warm and humid then, but I don't know yet if clouds and possible showers will prevent us from hitting again.

The late week and weekend are still looking pretty showery, with possible downpours before average September weather finally hits next week. 

Remember, heat impacts are cumulative meaning they increase
over time. It will be important to monitor your health and water
intake over the next several days especially in the noon to 7PM
timeframe. Vulnerable populations, like those without access to
air conditioning, will be at higher risk of heat illness.

Vermont Strong: Joy In Seeing Businesses Reopen After Horrific July Flood

This is a sad scene inside Bear Pond Books in 
Montpelier during the devastating floods in July.....

 I'll be the first to admit Vermont has a long way to go to fully recover from the catastrophic floods we had in July. 

The rallying cry after the flood has been Vermont Strong, and I don't think I've ever heard of more accurate catchphrase. 

We have been working together to clean up, repair, and get people back in homes, and businesses reopened. Keep it going Vermont!

A case in point is downtown Montpelier. The whole downtown was flooded, and dozens of stores, restaurants and other enterprise were devastated. But these businesses are reopening, and that is bringing joy to everyone, I swear.

A perfect example is Bear Pond Books. It's been there in Montpelier since 1973, and over the years has become a beloved independent book store and gathering place.

 Back on July 14, I posted a sad photo from inside Bear Pond Books, showing a ruined copy of climate activist Greta Thunberg's book, "The Climate Book" dejectedly floating in muddy waters inside the flood-destroyed store.

I was delighted today to see Bear Pond Books post on social media with much happier photos. The store re-opened on September 1, and a giant flood of shoppers - not water - invaded the store. 

....and here's the much happier scene inside 
Bear Pond Books when it reopened September 1.

One Bear Pond Books reopening photo really struck me. It showed a crowded store, its restored old hardwood floors gleaming. 

In the foreground, a smiling shopper looks thrilled to be there. Off to the left, a man and a woman appear to be having a joyful conversation. In the background, a sales clerk is happily ringing up what looks to be a woman's many purchases.

It's a wonderful photo, both emotionally and artistically. It shows a piece of Vermont community the way it's supposed to work. The image actually makes me a bit verklempt. 

You can't escape the climate change angle, though. In that new, happy photo, you see a book on display on the lower right. It's called "How To Live In A Chaotic Climate."

Will these newly climate charged severe storms keep flooding Montpelier again and again? 

 If so, what's the future for what I think is the most charming capital city in the United States. Not just Montpelier, but all of us. 

I'm not going to spoil the joy right now. I just need to drive down to Montpelier to stock up on some books, and see what else is open and interesting. For now, I'll celebrate the ongoing recovery. 

 

Vermont Heat Update: It Intensifies Today And Tomorrow, Peaks Wednesday

The hibiscus on our back deck is certainly welcoming the
hot, humid weather with lots of new blooms, even if
I can't quite muster as much enthusiasm for the hot spell.

 The temperature got up to 84 degrees on Sunday in Burlington, Vermont, which actually isn't all that remarkable for early September. 

What is remarkable is that it was the hottest temperature since July 28.   As mentioned in a previous post, we had the coolest high August maximum high temperature since 1927.

We're more than making up for it this week.  It should get into the low 90s on many valley floors sometime this week. There's even a shot at an "official" heat wave in Burlington, which is three consecutive days of 90 plus temperatures. 

That's a pretty arbitrary definition of a heat wave, but it is what it is. 

Anyway, it's going to be an uncomfortable week. 

A heat advisory is in effect today in the Champlain Valley. That the heat index, which takes into consideration actual temperatures combined with humidity, could make it feel as hot as 95 degrees. 

Today won't even be the hottest of this toasty stretch. I doubt many places will make it to 90 today. There's a better chance of it getting past 90 degrees tomorrow and the day after. I'm pretty sure the National Weather Service will also issue heat advisories Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday as well. 

With the humidity in place, nights won't cool off very much either. Dawn this morning wasn't too terrible, as it had gotten into the low 60s.  The next few nights will only go down to 70 or so in the warmer valleys, so we won't be able to recover from the day's heat so well going forward.

A heat wave gets dangerous cumulatively. The longer it stays hot, the more a person's body is stressed. People who are vulnerable to heat, especially those who already have underlying health issues, need to be careful.

If you know an elderly or person with health issues, check up on them this week.  If their house is hot, consider taking them out on an air conditioned trip if they're up for it. Meanwhile, everyone should stay hydrated.

If you need to do strenuous work, try to do it early in the morning when it's a bit cooler.

As mentioned yesterday, we'll have to watch the schools, too, since most aren't geared up for heat waves.  Traditionally, we didn't often have heat waves during the school season, but that seems to be changing. 

The heat dome over us should begin to break down Thursday, but it will be a slow process. Thursday will continue to be humid and very warm.  Whether it gets to 90 degrees or not then depends on the timing of any clouds and showers that work their way in. 

Longer range forecasts call for a sluggish weather pattern, with things not moving west to east as quickly as they should. 

With all the humidity lingering, that could set us up for - UGH! more heavy rain toward the end of the week. 

The good news is the flood risk is diminished some because for the first time since early June, we will have had a week or so of dry weather. So the soils will be able to absorb a little more rain water than they did in July and August.

Still, we'll have to watch later in the week in case enough rain does fall to cause local flood issues. We have a lot of time to monitor that. 

At least we won't have any tropical storms or hurricanes in the mix to make any late week rain worse. The Atlantic Ocean remains abuzz with tropical storms and wannabe hurricanes, but I don't see any real threat to the United States coasts for at least a week.  

Meanwhile, very long range forecasts have shifted.

Those predictions reaching into mid month had been indicating continued warmer than normal temperatures past September 15. Now, those forecasts hint at cooler than normal weather toward the middle of the month.

That's no guarantee, since forecasts that far out aren't necessarily accurate. But if it pans out, it will be a shock to the system again. Cooler than normal weather in mid-September is much different that slightly chillier than normal air in mid-summer.

If it gets cool in mid-September, you'll know for sure it's autumn. For now though, enjoy or endure a very, very belated summer heat wave

Odd Vermont September Heat Begins Today, But Really Gets Going Midweek

A hot muggy evening in Vermont, September 2020. A hot
spell is due this week, continuing a trend in recent years
of very warm Septembers in the Green Mountain State.

 The last time the temperature in  Burlington, Vermont got passed 83 degrees was way back on July 28.  As mentioned in a previous post, it was the coolest August maximum since 1927. 

Well, it's payback time. 

It could get as warm as 85 degree today, and then, at least in the valleys, it will probably be in the upper 80s to around 90 each day Monday through Thursday. Quite a stretch for a Vermont September if it pans out.

Although this won't be the worst heat wave ever, the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes two factors that will make this one a little tougher to take than you might expect.

For one, although we had our fair share of humid days in August. we haven't had a true hot day since July 28, when it was 91 degrees in Burlington. So, we'll have to re-acclimate to the hot weather. 

An even bigger deal is the fact that schools are open. Most Vermont schools are not air conditioned, so classrooms will get pretty hot.  Teachers and faculty will have to watch kids closely for signs of heat exhaustion or dehydration.

Vermonters accustomed to schools closing during winter storms. I wonder if some schools will have to shut down because of the heat. 

That's possible, because nights will be quite stuffy during this hot spell as well. Which means room temperatures won't drop much at night. The heat in those school buildings, many of them old, will build up.

One thing that could keep temperatures from really getting out of control is the wet summer we had. The wet ground will add humidity to the air, which would knock back temperatures a bit. Of course, that doesn't help any of us at all, because the extra humidity will just make things feel worse. 

Although there might be a few daily record highs in Vermont between Monday and Thursday, this won't be an all-time record breaker. 

With climate change, Septembers, like pretty much all months, has gotten hotter than they used to be.  

The long time record hottest temperature in Burlington for September was 95 degrees set in 1931. That is, until 2002, when it somehow rocketed up to 98 degrees on September 9 that year. 

Strong 90 degree heat waves also set record highs in September in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2018 so the suite of daily record highs in September have changed hugely over the past two decades.

I don't know how this entire September will pan out, but there's been a big trend for hot Septembers.  Five of the top six hottest Septembers in Burlington have happened since 2015, and seven of the top ten happened since 2002.

Who knows whether this month will join that hot September list, but we're off to a rousing start.  

Everyone Behaved Badly At Burning Man Climate Road Blockade

Screen grab from a video by Freedom News TV appears
to show a ranger drawing a weapon on climate protestors
at an ill-fated demonstration on the road to
Burning Man in Nevada.

Today we have a tale of everybody behaving badly over climate change, all involving an effort to disrupt a big event where pretty much everybody behaves badly.  

Social media and the news to some extent is all abuzz about a coalition of climate activist known as Seven Circles who recently blocked a road leaning to the annual Burning Man festival in the middle of nowhere, Nevada. 

Burning Man is a quirky (to say the least!) annual gathering that draws tens of thousands of people to a remote Nevada desert for arts, events and such. As organizers explain: "Our intention is to generate society (sic) that connects each individual to his or her creative powers to participation in community, to the larger realm of civic life, and to the even greater world of nature that exists beyond society."

Of course, like so many idealistic things, lots of other people want to join the fun without actually participating in the idea.  As The Guardian succinctly put it: "In recent years Burning Man has drifted from its hippy roots and has become better known for luxury RVs, wild orgies and Silicon Valley bros."

Touché. 

This year's Burning Man event is going on now, and if past years are any indication, at least 80,000 people are showing up for this thing. 

That brings us to the road blockade, which pretty much shut down the only route to the Burning Man bacchanal. (A full video of it is at the bottom of this post).

A coalition of activists blocked the road to Burning Man, some of them chaining themselves to a 28-foot long metal trailer they placed across the road. Their demands on Burning Man were actually pretty reasonable. Among them: They wanted the event to ban private jets, single use plastics and unlimited generator and propane use. 

All of which of course can contribute to climate change. 

THE BACKGROUND

Plenty of similar climate protests - mostly in Europe over the past couple of years - involved blocking busy highways.  I'm not sure how effective those protests have been, since they only serve to turn the stuck motorists off from the climate cause. That leaves the real powers behind climate change, like powerful corporations and governments, pretty much unscathed.

At least the Burning Man road blockade had more of a focused point. Let's face it, Burning Man  - and all the traffic going to and from it - put lots of carbon in the atmosphere.  

Vox reports that an internal Burning Man study says the annual event pumps 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year. That's roughly how much carbon dioxide 20,000 cars push into the atmosphere each year. 

To be sacrilegious here, if the annual Burning Man didn't exist, humanity would continue on just fine. 

THE CLASH

Anyway, back to the Nevada road blockade. Soon enough, a long traffic jam formed on the remote paved road and those stuck behind the climate protest quickly became irate. Clashes quickly developed .

People, some exiting vehicles that have seen better days, others leaving their super big, expensive gas guzzling trucks and RVs confronted the protestors. 

They kept trying to forcibly remove the trailer, push demonstrators away, and attempt to direct traffic around the edges of the blocked road, and yelled and hurled insults at the activists. 

The activists blocking the road weren't exactly behaving wonderfully either. One kept insisting he has an absolute right to protest in the United States. Which is completely true. However, he wanted to be left alone to protest and block traffic as long as he wished. Even though for most people, there are consequences to direct action. Sometime you are moved, or arrested, unjustly or not.

Worse, as The Guardian notes, this demonstration took place on land owned by the Paiute Tribe, members of which told the activists they weren't allowed to demonstrate like that on tribal land.  The demonstrators were unmoved by this. 

What did move the protestors, literally, was the Pyramid Lake Paiute tribal police department, which wasn't messing around. They showed up just a little over a half hour after demonstrators first blocked the road. 

The police demanded they get off the road within 30 seconds, one of officers, apparently cosplaying Rambo or the Incredible Hulk,  floored the truck he was in and bashed through the trailer blocking the road, despite the fact that some protestors had chained themselves to it. 

The red-faced officer then pulled out a what appears to be a gun or taser and yelled, "Get on the ground, now!"    When one activist who was forced to the ground was picked up and escorted to a truck, you could see in the video her face was bloodied.

Though I understand people stuck in the European protests complain that the police there are too milquetoast, the officers in Nevada took it to the other extreme.  This scene wasn't exactly a tutorial video on how police should de-escalate things, that's for damn sure. a 

Bottom line,  police behaved badly, too.    

Badly enough so that the ranger who plowed through the barricade and drew the gun or taser might be in trouble. "The involved Ranger's conduct is under review," according to a press release from the Paiute Tribe. 

Of course that scene of aggressive police breaking up the blockade  got right wing media in a big happy dance. They like that sort of thing.  

"Everyone has been waiting for law enforcement to step in and establish authority" at climate action road blockades, huffed Fox News weekend host Lawrence Jones. 

Fox contributor Mollie Hemingway went further, saying, "I don't buy that these people care about the environment.....They only care about controlling the economy, people and destroying peoples' lives."

Hemingway didn't explain how the Burning Man climate road blockade destroyed anybody's life. But oh well. Hyperbole sells, right?

A large proportion of the comments on the YouTube video of the whole incident suggested a lot of people got off on watching the violence.  

DOES CLIMATE ACTION WORK?

I'm actually in favor of direct action, like protests, to rail against those who would block efforts to stop climate change. Sure, the Burning Man stunt got publicity, which is good I suppose.  Did it move the needle at all on climate change? I'm not so sure. 

What was Seven Circle's end game? I get why they were protesting Burning Man, but how did they expect the road confrontation to end, and when? Were they going to block the road for an hour? All day? All week? All year?

If so, did the demonstrators really think Burning Man organizers would cave to their demands that afternoon?  I guess my question is, was this demonstration just to call attention to the wastefulness and stupidity of Burning Man?

If so, great! If not, what the hell were they doing there, anyway?

Showy climate protests attract the news media.  But if you make the publicity negative, how effective are you?

I know there's a lot of good climate activists who are not trying to get into the newspapers. .But they are perhaps quietly pressuring politicians and corporations more and more to take the climate crisis seriously.

I know, too, that quiet efforts don't always work, and sometimes you have to make a bunch of noise.  But let's do it in a way where people not only hear the message, but actually listen to it and join the cause. 

Here's the video from Freedom News TV of the whole thing. It's a bit long, but the crapshow is still worth the watch, especially if you like all those "Karen" videos. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Vermont August Had One Weird Cold Statistic, But The Month Was Actually Kinda Normal, But Too Rainy

Unsettled skies over Georgia, Vermont on August 26
were typical for the entire month in the Green 
Mountain State as we had another month of
frequent rains and even sometimes flooding.

August was another weird weather month in Vermont, and I'll start with what was really striking, at least to me. 

For all of August in Burlington - a month normally known for its impressive heat waves, the warmest it ever got was 83 degrees.  

That's the coldest maximum temperature for the month of August since almost a century ago - August, 1927 - which never got above 82 degrees. 

That's one impressive stat, to be honest. 

Especially since, if you add up all the days of the month, August was only slightly cooler than normal. 

And we're talking about the warmer "new normal."  Had this August occurred say in 1980, when averages weren't so skewed by climate change, August would have actually been a bit warmer than normal. 

The heat was similarly tempered in  August statewide. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and Bennington all said their hottest day of the month was between 81 and 83 degrees.

The month probably felt warmer to you than it was, because it was pretty humid much of the time. Nighttime temperatures were pretty close to the "new normal" average while daytime highs were on the cool side. 

The relative coolness of Vermont's August, 2023 stands in contrast to most of the rest of the world. Experts say August on a global basis will either be the warmest on record or very close to it. 

To nobody's surprise, the stats also show it was another wet month.  Burlington's 4.9 inches was about 1.3 inches on the wet side. The rain was frequent, too. Only 12 days in August were precipitation-free in Burlington. 

Other reporting sites were even wetter. Montpelier and Rutland had around six inches for August. That's better than the eye-popping July totals that led to such extreme flooding then, but it was still impressive.

That flooding continued into August as well. Severe flooding struck in and around Middlebury on August 3, and that dangerous flash flooding spread into Rutland and surrounding communities on August 4. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We're starting September this morning with a cool, almost autumnal morning. Most of us were in the 40s at dawn. Gallup Mills, Vermont and Saranac Lake, New York were down to 37 degrees and Island Pond was 39.

Almost makes you think fall is arriving. 

Postpone that thought. 

After those cool daytime temperatures I talked about in August, we have a shot at reaching 90 degrees in the days ahead. Even if we don't get that warm,  reading will go well past that August peak of 83 degrees in Burlington. 

In fact, current forecasts bring Burlington, and many other places in Vermont up to 85 degrees or more each day Sunday through Thursday. 

Longer range forecasts are less reliable, but for what it's worth, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center tilts our odds strongly in favor of generally above normal temperatures through mid-month.