Vermont Gets Flurried To Death, Tons Of Snow In Northern Mountains Results

The latest National Weather Service snow forecast map.
Parts of the northern Green Mountains should continue
to pile up the snow, while low elevations in
southern Vermont continue with their snow drought.

 This is one of those winter periods we have so often in Vermont in which nor'easters and big dumps of snow completely pass us by. 

But some of us get our share of snow, anyway, in the form of sporadic snow showers, light snow and random snowflakes in the cold, damp northwest winds of winter. 

Basically, Vermont gets flurried to death. 

The long siege of snow flurries in Vermont that started last Thursday and will pretty much continue all this week is one of the most impressive I've seen. 

It's true that this type of regime brings big snow winners and snow losers.  Deep valleys miss out, while the central and northern Green Mountains practically drown in powder. That type of situation is writ large this week.

Our latest installment of this phenomenon has been going on since last Thursday and will continue pretty much the rest of this week.

Under this regime, valleys don't get all that much snow, but eventually, he ground whitens even there. The mountains, get creamed, though. 

So far, since Thursday. Westfield, Vermont has received a little over two feet of snow. Montgomery has had nearly a foot and a half. Jay Peak, which always does best in this type of situation, has had three feet of snow in the past week. 

Meanwhile, it pretty much didn't snow at all in the Champlain Valley until Saturday and Sunday. The wind shifted and relaxed a little, so the snow didn't bypass the valley. And Lake Champlain offered its second installment of lake effect snow this winter. 

Deepest new snow on Sunday morning included 4.7 inches in Shelburne, 4.6 inches in Huntington and 4.2 inches in Charlotte.

ANOTHER SNOW BLITZ COMING

We get a break from the snow today, as a little bit of high pressure from the west is interfering with the cold, wet north flow of air. 

But that snowy northwest wind is about to re-establish itself big time for parts of Vermont for the rest of the week.  Some of the snow totals we'll hear about by the end of the week will be impressive, but those big totals will probably be limited to the central and northern Green Mountains. 

This will be  enough that the National Weather Service has issued a long-lasting winter weather advisory from a little after midnight Tuesday morning to at least Wednesday evening for the northern Green Mountains of Vermont and parts of the Adirondacks and other sections of northern New York.

That snow will probably keep falling beyond Wednesday. 

The snowfall in the advisory zone will probably never fall all that heavily, but the persistence is what will pile up the fluff. 

If you're near the Green Mountains in northern Vermont, you can generally expected a good three to eight inches of snow, with locally higher amounts. If you're way up high, near the summits, at elevations of 2,000 feet or more, expect one to two feet of snow by Friday. 

A note that all of Franklin County, Vermont is under the advisory, but sections of the county closest to Lake Champlain probably won't receive a boatload of snow. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the heavier snow will probably be east of a line from Fairfax to Highgate.

Much of Vermont will receive a little snow, it'll be a dusting to a couple inches.  Parts of the southern Champlain Valley, low elevations in western Rutland County and lower Connecticut Valley might not get any snow at all, or if they do, just a few occasional lonely snowflakes. 

By the time you get down to places like Springfield and Brattleboro this week, the sun will be out much of the day during this whole thing. 

Everyone will be windy and cold during this whole week, though.   Winds will gust to 30 to 35 mph, Tuesday, Wednesday and probably Thursday. High temperatures will only be in the teens to around 20, so wind chills are going to be a problem.

Where there's a bunch of snow, blowing snow is going to be a big problem. The snow that falls will be very light and fluffy, which means the wind will pick it up easily. Expect some big drifts on some of the roads exposed to the wind, whiteout conditions at times, and lift holds at the some of the ski areas due to the gusts. 

Toward the end of the week and early next weekend, those of us who will have gotten snow will see it tapering off. Temperatures will moderate a bit, getting up into the 20s, which actually is fairly comfortable for this time of year. 

Research Group Pins Blame For Big 2024 Global Weather Disasters On Climate Change

The organization World Weather Attribution blames
many of the world's worst weather disasters of 2024
largely on climate change. 

 A research group says that many of the most extreme weather disasters of 2024 were made worse than they otherwise would have due to climate change. 

The group World Weather Attribution issued their 2024 summary on December 27.

Key findings include:

-- Climate change contributed to the deaths of at least 3,700 people the displacement of 26 weather events the group studies in 2024.  They explain: "These were just a small fraction of the 219 events that met our trigger criteria, used to identify the most impactful weather events. It's like the total number of people killed in extreme weather events intensified by climate change this year is in the tens, or hundreds of thousands."

--Globally, climate change added on average 41 additional days of dangerous heat in 2024 that threatened people's health. The countries the had the most dangerous heat days in 2024 were mostly small islands and developing states that don't have the infrastructure to protect people from the heat. 

---Although many of 2024's extreme events were in part influence by El Nino, especially in the early part of the year, in most cases climate change played a larger role than El Nino in making these individual problems - such as a huge drought in the Amazon - worse. 

--- Of 16 floods WWA studied, 15 were driven by rainfall amplified by climate change. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leasing to heavier downpours. Some of the floods had huge death tolls due to shortcomings in storm warnings and evacuation plans. 

--- Warmer seas in general strengthen tropical cyclones. Thirty of 38 Atlantic hurricanes between 2019 and 2023 were made noticeably stronger than they otherwise would have been without climate change. That climate change is also increasing the risk of the Philippines being hit be strong typhoons.

An example not mentioned in the WWA report is the fact that in November, the Philippines were hit by four powerful typhoons within ten days. 

World Weather Attribution works with scientists to quantify how climate change influences to the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. They do so, usually immediately after an extreme event using weather observations and computer modeling.  The organization also evaluates how existing vulnerabilities worse the impacts of those extreme weather events. 

WWA tries to make their analyses public as soon as they become available, very often days or weeks after the event.  

That's good, since these events are still hot topics in the media not long after they occur. If these reports are made public months or years after these disasters, the publics minds will have long since moved on to the next topic. 

In their end of year report, WWA had a few "New Year's resolutions" to pass on. Those include efforts to accelerate shifts away from fossil fuel use, improvements in warning procedures around the world to get people out of the way of sudden disasters, and more real-time reporting of heat deaths since this problem is underreported.  

Vermont Wasn't Alone: More Than 350 U.S. Weather Stations Had Hottest Year In 2024

A small thunderstorm pops up over Lake Champlain near
South Hero, Vermont on a hot, steamy July, 2024 day. 
Nearby Burlington ended up having their hottest year
on record, as did more than 300 U.S. cities last year. 

When I said the other day that a couple cities in Vermont had their warmest year on record in 2024, we weren't exactly unique.  

Turns out Burlington, Vermont was among at least 299 United States sites that had their warmest year on record in the Lower 48.  Another 60 sites tied their records for warmest year.

Data are trickling in from other cities so this number might grow. 

This is more evidence hat we are living in a very different climatological world than we did just a few decades ago. If the climate were normal, most places would not have a record warm or cold year. But a roughly equal number of cities would have had a record warm or a record cold year. 

Not in 2024, that's for sure! 

Only three states - Delaware, Rhode Island and South Carolina - didn't have any cities reporting record breaking or record tying heat. 

That means the 2024 heat was widespread across the nation. Virtually everyone enjoyed or endured - depending on your perspective - a hot 2024, But it does seem it was most widespread from the Southwest, through Texas and parts of the Deep South. And also the interior Northeast and parts of the Great Lakes. 

In Vermont, the data set compiled by the Southeast Regional Climate Center says Burlington, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier and Woodstock had their hottest year on record in 2024.  Bennington tied the record for hottest year. 

Nearby cities that had their hottest year in 2024 include Albany in New York and Concord, Berlin and North Conway, New Hampshire.    

There were a couple spots that were coolish, at least by comparison. 

The heat was well distributed throughout the year. It wasn't just one standout month that skewed 2024 toward warmth. 

Some cities had more than 40 record highs distributed through the year, which is a lot. Pascagoula, Mississippi endured 56 days with record highs in 2024. San Antonio and Tampa had 56 such days. 

Phoenix, Arizona famously suffered through 21 consecutive days of record highs late September and October.  No American city had ever had that many consecutive record highs. 

Here in Vermont, Burlington managed just 11 record highs, but that's a lot for a single year when the records go back to the 1880s. There were no record lows in Burlington in 2024.

The heat in Vermont has lasted years. Each of the past five years are among Burlington's top 10 warmest. 

Since 2000, Burlington has had 46 record highs, and just one record low.

Nighttimes during 2024 in the United States were also particularly oppressive, especially near the overheated Gulf of Mexico. Brownsville, Texas and Key West, Florida each had more than 40 nights the were record warmer.  

Analysts could not find any cities that came anywhere close to their top 10 list of coolest years. The closest to that was probably Los Angeles, as measure at the airport. Winter storms early in 2024 kept the city cool. The airport is also close to the coast, so summer and autumn breezes off the Pacific Ocean kept inland heat waves at bay.

So Los Angeles was tied for their 26th coolest year out of the past 80 years. Not a big deal. 

Final figures aren't quite in yet, but either 2012 or 2024 will turn out to be the hottest year on record in the United States.  The bets are 2024 will be the hottest, we'll find out within days with NOAA releases their monthly report. 

Climatologists are also already sure that last year was the world hottest on record, breaking the mark set just a year earlier. 

Despite Better Weather This Winter, Climate Change Is Changing The Face Of Vermont Winter Recreation

Ice fishing enthusiasts on Lake Champlain several 
years ago. Climate change has made many winter
sports and recreation seasons shorter and more
unreliable than in the past. 

By historical standards, this December in Vermont has been no great shakes in terms of winter weather.
 

But in at least parts of the state, perhaps the whole state, this was  the most wintry December since 2019, and a rare exception to the balmy Decembers of the past few decades.

That's not saying much. The record warmth and rain in  the final few days of 2024, spelled more trouble for a potentially beleaguered industry.  

We're talking ski areas, and especially outfits related to cross country skiing and snow shoeing, snowmobiling, ice fishing and outdoor skating. 

Traditional winter weather has returned now that it's January. It's cold, and some of the ski resorts got decent shot of snow in the past couple of days.  Even if this winter turns out to be the much colder and snowier than what we've gotten used to in the past couple of decades, it will probably be an outlier.  With climate change, strangely balmy winters are here to stay. 

Which makes us question the future of Vermont's storied winter sports and recreation industry.  At the very least that industry is changing. And  will continue to change. 

Our ski resorts' ever increasing reliance on snowmaking is well documented. This is especially true for smaller independent resorts,  Big conglomerates like Vail can weather a bad ski season in say, Colorado, because their other resorts elsewhere in the world might save the day with better snow.

Marketplace, with airs on National Public Radio, recently took a look at the Bolton Valley Ski Area in Vermont.

Bolton has heavily invested in snow making in recent years so it's ready to take advantage of any moments when it's cold enough to manufacture the flakes. Since the family that runs the resort bought it in 2017, they've invested $1 million in snowmaking, notes Marketplace. 

The resort has had other trouble with likely climate change-related issues this year. The access road to the resort was essentially wiped out by flash floods in July. Repairs to the road barely finished before the ski season started.

CROSS COUNTRY SKIING

The Bolton ski area has a relatively high base elevation, at about 2,000 feet, so they're more likely to see snow than rain, compared to places in the valleys. Which brings us to businesses like cross country ski centers. 

Last winter's record warmth and lack of snow meant that Vermont's 26 ski touring centers had about 50 percent fewer visitors than the prior winter, which also fell well short of a banner year. 

New Hampshire Public Radio last March ran a piece about how cross country skiing, particularly school competitions in the sport, are having a tough time in the Green Mountain State. Says NHPR:

"Kate Hale, a postdoc studying show hydrology at the University of Vermont, says the winter season is shrinking in Vermont due to climate change. 

'Snow on is occurring almost two weeks later on average in the year and snow off is now occurring about a week earlier in the spring,' Hale says. 

On top of the shrinking length of the season, Hale said that Vermont is seeing an increasing amount of rain-on-snow events."

Kind of like what's going on this weekend and early in the week.  You finally manage to get a snowpack, albeit a thin one, but still enough to cross country ski. Then it's suddenly 50 degrees and raining so you have to start over again with the snow. 

Hale told NHPR that Vermont/s snowpack depth has declined about 13 percent between 1965 and 2022.

That really takes a toll in cross country teams that are based in the warmest, lowest parts of Vermont, like the Champlain Valley.

Last year, the South Burlington cross country team had to take buses up to the higher elevation Sleepy Hollow Ski Center in higher elevation Huntington. But the travel time interferes with homework and sleep for team members, so that's not great, either. 

As the Waterbury Roundabout/Barre Times Argus noted in September, the longer summers and shorter, less snowy winters are changing the face of outdoor recreation in Vermont, as people gravitate toward hiking and mountain biking and away from snowshoeing and cross country skiing. 

SNOWMOBILES

 Vermont Public Radio's podcast Brave Little State last March had an eye opening look at snowmobiling in Vermont. 

In 2001, the Vermont Association of Snow Travelers did an economic impact study of snowmobiling in the Green Mountain State.  Reports Brave Little State:

"That study estimated that snowmobilers that year spend about $511 million on gas, food, lodging and snowmobiles - including parts and service. That figure also includes vehicle registration and VAST membership fees, which go right back into the organization."

Turns out that 2001 study was done near the heyday of snowmobiling in Vermont. Since then, VAST is now selling  half the number of annual trail passes than it did a couple decades ago. The Vermont Agency of Transportation says the number of snowmobile registrations is down by half. 

Meanwhile, the cost of gas, insurance and trail maintenance is going up. Especially since the snow has become so unreliable in Vermont due to our warmer winters. 

On top of all that, floods in the summer of 2023 caused $4 million in damage to VAST trailers. Additional flooding caused more damage in 2024,

Cindy Locke, executive director of VAST, told Brave Little State: "Will we survive this? I don't know. You know, I don't know if snowmobiling will survive, you know, winters without snow. I know they won't. Like we won't survive after  just a few, if we have brown winters." 

 ICE FISHING

On Lake Champlain, what had been in the past reliable annual ice events have been interrupted and canceled by warm weather in recent years. 

Last year, The Pond Hockey Classic on Malletts Bay in Colchester was canceled.  A major Lake Champlain winter ice fishing derby was canceled for the second winter in a row due to thin or nonexistent ice. 

A 2020 study indicates below freezing periods have declined by nearly three weeks since 1960.  That has shortened or in some cases eliminated the period of time in winter when lake ice is relatively safe for ice fishing. 

Which isn't good, since tourism based on ice fishing amounts to expenditures of $147 million per year, according to information from the University of Vermont.

THIS WINTER

I don't know what the rest of this winter will bring. December brought mixed results, with some decent snow cover at times, but also some pretty intense thaws. Overall this winter is almost guaranteed to be colder than last winter, as 2023-24 was the warmest one on record.

Snowfall so far this winter has been unimpressive. You can get decent snows with slightly warmer than average winters, so it's not like the odd winter in Vermont can't bring deep snows. 

But that seems to be gradually getting less and less likely as the climate change years go by. The face of winter outdoor sports in Vermont is changing, and in many cases fading. Athletic types are going to need to get used to embracing warmer weather sports. 

 

Why Burlington, Vermont's Biggest Ever Snowstorm 15 Years Ago Wasn't That Big A Deal

Buried cars in South Burlington, Vermont, January 3,
2010, after Burlington received a record 33.1 inches of
snow. Though it was the biggest storm on record,
it's not remembered as much as other, more widespread
snowstorms and blizzard in Vermont history. 

Fifteen years ago today, Burlington, Vermont was digging out from is biggest snowstorm on record. On January 2-3, 2010, the city was buried beneath 33.1 inches of fresh snow. 

Despite that record, the January, 2010 snow blitz isn't really remembered as a top tier historic snowstorm, like the famous Blizzard of 1888, December, 1969, the Valentine's Blizzard of 2007 or even the Pi Day Blizzard of March, 2017.

The storm 15 years ago is a great illustration of how quirky Vermont weather can be. 

The January, 2010, was, oddly, pretty much just a phenomenon of the Burlington area, and not particularly widespread. There wasn't a lot of wind with the storm, and the snow's consistency was like the lightest of feathers. 

Usually during winter storms, Burlington receives less snow than the mountains, which can more easily collect moisture, or southern Vermont, which more frequently gets clipped by powerful nor'easters along the coast. 

In January, 2010, Burlington got more snow than anyone in Vermont. Nearby Essex Junction was close, with 30 inches, and Charlotte had two feet.

But many other areas of Vermont had just a run of the mill midwinter snowfall. The summit of Mount Mansfield only managed 11 inches. Stowe had just 4.5 inches, and Marshfield had a whopping 2.7 inches.

Snow accumulation of over 20 inches was limited to just most of Chittenden County and northern Addison County. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and some towns in Rutland and Franklin counties sw a foot or so of snow, but much of central Vermont had six inches or less. 

There were two main reasons why the January, 2010 storm hit Burlington so hard but wasn't a big deal elsewhere in the state.

One reason was lake effect. All day, the wind flow was just perfect over the unfrozen Lake Champlain to scoop up moisture into clouds and snow.  The other reason was a temperature inversion just about summit level along the Green Mountains.

Usually, the moisture in a northwest wind flow doesn't release snow until the wind is forced to ride up the west slopes of the Greens.  In January, 2010, that inversion blocked the air flow, so the snow was released from the clouds over Chittenden County, and not the mountains to the east.  

OTHER STORMS

Other historic snowstorms in Vermont hit much wider areas, which of course made them more memorable. The Valentine's Day blizzard in 2007 deposited 20 to 30 inches snow on almost all of the state.  

 The Pi Day Blizzard spread 20 to 35 inches of snow across most of central and northern Vermont along with most of New York and parts of Pennsylvania.  

Another reason why the January, 2010 storm was so manageable was the lack of water in the snow. It was so light and fluffy that you can almost clear it away with a leaf blower.  If you melted Burlington's big January, 2010 storm down, you get the equivalent of just under an inch of rain. 

Fluffy snow packs down more readily, too. So within days of the big storm, there wasn't all that much snow on the ground. Despite continuously below freezing temperatures and 9.1 inches of additional snow in the interim, the snow depth in Burlington was down to 13 inches by January 13. 

The snow pretty much went away on its own. 

Other big snowstorms in Burlington had a much higher water content, meaning the snow was heavier. That made the snow harder to shovel, harder to plow, and easier to get stuck in.  Plus, the only way to get rid of the dense snow was through thawing.   

Despite temperatures in the single digits above zero, the snow in the Valentine's blizzard of 2007 was dense and heavy. The 25.7 inches of snow that fell in that storm consisted of just under two inches of water. 

Another  heavy snowstorm in March, 2011 - now Burlington's fourth largest with 25.8 inches, had a storm total of 2.43 inches of liquid, though the first few hours of that storm was in the form of rain, not snow. 

On December, 25-28, 1969, Burlington was hit by 29.7 inches of snow. The water equivalent was 2.73 inches.

The Pi Day Blizzard in March, 2017 was also relatively light and fluffy, but not quite as feathery as January, 2010. Pi Day dumped  30.4 inches of snow on Burlington with a water equivalent of 1.13 inches. 

So yes, the January, 2010 snowstorm was a big deal, at least for Burlington. But what makes a snowstorm truly memorable is not just the amount, but the consistency of the snow, the wind, and how widespread the storm is. 

Worst Winter Storms So Far This Winter Hitting Large Section Of U.S.: Snow, Ice, Even Tornadoes

When the National Weather Service home page map
gets colorful, you know there's active weather. All
those pinks and blues from Montana to
Kansas and then east to the Mid-Atlantic are
winter storm warnings, watches and advisories.

With Arctic air making a belated blast into the United States, it's inevitable we'd see a big winter storm blossom out of the situation.  

Sure enough, winter storm warnings and watches, with a few ice storm warnings are flying now in a   from Montana, then down to Kansas, and then extending in a broad band to the Mid-Atlantic states.

Many of these areas have until now, not yet experienced a winter storm yet this season. So this will be a cold slap in the face. 

South of the storm, severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes are set to break out in Louisiana, eastern Texas and Mississippi Sunday, which are unfortunately the places hit hardest by a tornado outbreak in the closing days of 2024.

The storm is expected to be rich with ice, which is bad news. Freezing rain is anticipated in a  broad streak from Kansas, across much of Missouri, southern Illinois and into Kentucky. 

By Monday, that freezing rain could extend into parts of Virginia and western North Carolina, which is probably the last place that needs more weather havoc

Parts of southern Missouri and Illinois are set to glaze up with up to three quarters of an inch of freezing rain. That's enough to snap trees and power lines, along with making driving impossible. The National Weather Service is warning of widespread and long-lasting power outages. 

North of the worst ice zone, eight to 12 inches of snow is on the menu, with more in a few spots.

Pretty cold air will follow the storm, so the snow and ice will stay around for awhile. Temperatures in Kansas are expected to get below zero Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights. 

The cold will extend to the Gulf Coast, and eventually the Southeast and even Florida in the next few days. Freezing temperatures will extend as far south as New Orleans, Mobile, Alabama and perhaps central Florida

VERMONT EFFECTS

A persistent, broad and strong northwest flow of air out of Canada will keep this storm way south of the Green Mountain State, so it won't affect us at all.

Little disturbances in the northwest flow will bring occasional light snow and flurries to the valleys for the next week, eventually whitening up the ground in those places a little. The Green Mountains should see installments of fluffy, accumulating snow almost daily for at least a week.  Each day's accumulation would only be 1 to 4 inches, but it will add up as it keeps snowing up there every day. 

It'll stay persistently cold, too, and this will be one of the longer periods of nippy weather we've seen in recent years. But those temperatures won't be all that unusual for January. Depending on the day, highs will be mostly in the teens and low 20s. Lows would be in the single digits to near 10, with a few excursions to slightly below zero on some nights if skies clear. 

PERSPECTIVE

This storm and cold snap affecting huge swaths of the U.S. will certainly be disruptive for many millions of people,  and destructive for some. But in the grand scheme of things, this is not super extreme compared to some of history's worst winter weather events. 

In this case, there should only be a smattering of record low temperatures. Snowfall amounts in some spots will be the deepest in years, but should fall well short of breaking records.

Winter storms and cold snaps can still easily happen, even in this age of climate change. But in most (but not all!) cases, this climate change has made these winter outbreaks less severe than they once were. 

At the same time, the hype machine I keep mentioning is in full force.  With this storm, I've seen some breathless weather nerds saying a blizzard rivaling the the Superstorm of 1993 will hit the Deep South (Nope, not happening!) and Florida will see snow amounts unrivaled since the extreme winter of 1977. (Double, triple nope on that idea). 

There could be some snow in the South next week but the prspects of that are iffy at best. 

Those affected by this winter storm should take it seriously and heed all the warnings. But this outbreak of nasty weather is the outcome of a phenomenon known as "January."  

Like it or not, it continues to happen every winter. 

New York Takes Vermont's Lead, Establishes Climate "Superfund" Law

Following Vermont's lead from last year, New York
Gov. Kathy Hochul signed legislation creating a
"climate superfund" to force fossil fuel polluters
 to help pay for climate related damages in the state.

 Vermont lawmakers made waves last spring when the state adopted a law that requires fossil fuel companies and other big polluters to pay for climate related damage all those emissions have and will cause the state. 

The law faces an uncertain future because, as you might imagine the fossil fuel companies are not happy with this idea and will sue. 

But other states have taken a keen interest in Vermont's law, and it's starting to snowball. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul signed into law a bill similar to Vermont's earlier this month. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"The bill...... would allow the state to fine the biggest greenhouse gas emitters a total of $75 billion, to be paid over 25 years into a fund based on their contributions to overall emissions between 2000 and 2018.

That money would be used to pay for the damage already done to homes, roads and bridges - and help cover the cost of preparing for increasingly extreme weather in the years come."

Fossil fuel lobbyists reacted to the New York legislation pretty much the same way they did when Vermont passed their own climate superfund law.  WaPo again:

"New York's law is almost certain to face legal challenges. The American Petroleum Institute, the oil and gas industry's powerful lobbying group, sent state lawmakers a memo in 2023 saying the proposed bill was unconstitutional. A could would probably strike it down, the group did, because it was preempted by federal law and sought to hold companies responsible for the actions of society at large."

Plus, there's the ever-present problem of the incoming Trump administration. Sigh. 

I think this type of law has merit, but buckle up for a long, long legal fight over this. 

 

California, Maryland and Massachusetts have been considering similar laws, but so far no climate superfund bill has made it to the governors desk in any of those states.