The "Liberal Redneck" And Climate Change

The Liberal Redneck has thoughts on climate change 

 Comedian Trae Crowder has a YouTube channel called "The Liberal Redneck,"

In it, Crowder plays up the political commentary with a thick, rather exasperated southern accent, as a counterpoint to those conservative rants you see from some southern spouters.  

The Liberal Redneck has a video from 2018 that is especially pertinent now, what with the big weather disasters and climate change crises swirling about. 

In this post, Crowder has a solution as to what we should do when we encounter a person who denies the existence of climate change. But a special guest tries to convince The Liberal Redneck that his idea is perhaps not the best one. 

Viewers on mobile devices might not be able to see the video in this post, so click on this hyperlink to see it.  Otherwise, here's the funny video:

 

Another "Never-Ending Summer" Regime In Vermont; Tropical Storm Nicholas

Now that it's mid-September, gardens around my St. 
Albans, Vermont home are definitely past their prime, but
at least I'm not worrying about frost yet as warm
days are in the forecast. 

By mid-September in Vermont we usually start to talk about the risk of frost, especially outside the Champlain Valley. 

That's mid-September frost talk has been becoming less common in recent years, as climate change in general makes our weather warmer.  That's not to say we'll never see mid-September frost again. We will, for sure. 

Just not this year.

It has stayed on the mild side so far all month. True, the average temperature so far this month in Burlington has come out nearly normal, but that's the newly introduced "normal", which is above historical levels.

Plus, signs point toward generally warm weather continuing perhaps to the end of the month. That's not to say there won't be a few cool days thrown in there. But for now, expect warmth, and on some days over the next week or two, summer type warmth. And maybe a bit of humidity.

Before we get there, we'll have to endure the "coldest" night so far this season tonight. It'll get down into the 40s, which is so average for mid-September, really to be ridiculous. Even the notorious cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom should stay at or above 40 degrees overnight. Areas near Lake Champlain should hold in the 50s.

That leads us into a long period of warm weather. Expect daily highs in the 70s each day through at least the next week with lows in the 50s.  Warmer valleys will hit 80 on some of these days and in those banana belt towns, overnight lows will stay above 60 on some nights.  That kind of weather used to be average for mid summer.

As usual, rain last night missed northern Vermont but hit the far south of the state. A band of thunderstorms zipped east along Route 9 overnight, dumping an inch or more of rain down there. The rainfall entirely missed pretty much everyone from Rutland and Windsor counties north.

Looking ahead, other than the warmth, the only interesting weather will come along on Wednesday, courtesy of a cold front.  The "cold" air behind the front won't be chilly at all, you won't notice much of a difference between the air before and after the cold front.

What the cold front lacks in temperature change will more than make up for itself in energy and a ready supply of moisture  This front reminds a little of the one that came through last Wednesday, which produced a slow moving band of heavy rain with embedded strong to locally severe thunderstorms. 

This one won't be exactly the same, but will have similarities. There will be locally heavy rain, and the risk of severe thunderstorms. At this point, the risk of severe weather looks like it'll be directed toward the southeastern half of Vermont and on into southern New England.

There's still time for adjustments in that forecast, so we'll have more details tomorrow and Wednesday morning on any nastiness from that system.

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS

This tropical storm formed in the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday and was east of the southern tip of Texas early this  morning.   Top winds are 60 mph, and this storm might strengthen to hurricane levels by the time it moves ashore somewhere on the mid-Texas coast tonight.

Wind isn't the big concern with this one, though. It's rain.  Nicholas will move inland and slowly move northward through eastern Texas then eventually turn right into Louisiana later this week. 

Any winds will quickly diminish, but forecasts call for 8 to 16 inches of rain in the storm zone, with local amounts up to 20 inches. This, not surprisingly, brings a high risk of flash flooding today, and probably tomorrow to much of coastal Texas, including Houston.

Onshore winds during this will send surges from the Gulf of Mexico toward Houston. This will help prevent flood waters from draining from this vast urban area.  While this won't be as bad as the epic floods in Houston from Hurricane Harvey, it will be bad enough.

Plus, Louisiana doesn't catch a break does it.  Seems almost every tropical system ends up there.  Louisiana is saturated from Hurricane Ida earlier this summer, and they've obviously just started to pick up the pieced from that hurricane. 

While there won't be any new wind damage in Louisiana from what will then be the remnants of Nicholas, flash flooding will soak much of that state this week. 

Like they need it.

Another Climate Denying Canard Bites The Dust

Overall, the Lower 48 had its warmest summer on record.
The only cool places relative to average you can find
on this map are a few counties in Texas.

 When  you talk with somebody who denies the reality of climate change, you often get a "Yeah, but," and the describe some historic weather event many decades ago that was worse the some current nightmare.  

That argument takes a truism and twists it.  It is true there have always been weather extremes and you can always find some example of some terrible historic heat wave, flood, hurricane, etc. 

One of the anti-climate Yeah But arguments pretty much bit the dust this week.  That's the one where we're told that the nation's hottest summer on record  was way back in 1936 way back in the Dust Bowl era. 

That's supposed to be proof that summers aren't getting hotter. Or something.

Well, they can't use 1936 anymore. At least technically.  The hottest summer on record in the United States is - wait for it - 2021!

Though it might sound like it, I'm not gloating.  I, and probably everybody else, wish that 1936 was still the record holder. We don't hotter summers. They cause drought, heat deaths, heat illnesses, cause decreased productivity, raise energy costs.  Not good. 

This year  barely beat out 1936 by a whisker. Just 0.01 of a degree. So it's essentially a tie.

The stat about this summer being the United States' hottest summer comes from NOAA, who brought this up in their monthly climate summary for the nation.  Climatologists look at June 1 through August 31 to compare summers.  This one managed to end up at Number 1.

Temperatures usually aren't that far above or below normal in the summer compared to other seasons. And when you take three months of data, it usually averages out fairly close to normal.  The average temperature for the summer in the Lower 48 was 74.01 degrees or 2.4 degrees warmer than the long term average.

No states had a cooler than normal summer. The only places I could find that were on the cool side were a handful of counties in Texas.  Five states had their hottest summer and 16 states scored in the top 5.  

This summer's United States statistics also reflect something that's been happening in Vermont that I discussed the other day.  Much of this summer's heat was driven more by particularly toasty nights, especially in the East.

By the way, Vermont was one of two states to have their hottest August on record. The other state was across the river - New Hampshire. 

Can We Ease Northern Vermont Drought Without Flooding Out Southern Vermont

A torrential downpour in South Burlington on Wednesday.
The heaviest rain with Wednesday's storms partly
missed far northern Vermont, which most needs the rain.

We're into that time of year now when we're gradually transitioning out of the normal summer pattern of hit and miss showers and thunderstorms into one where we sometimes get larger areas of rain.

Meanwhile, Vermont is in a weird spot with water needs.  There was too much rain in southern Vermont this summer, and not enough in northern parts of the state. 

 All of northern Vermont within about 30 or 40 miles of the Canadian border are still stubbornly in moderate drought, says the U.S. Drought monitor.

I can sort of confirm that here in St. Albans. We've had some needed rain lately.   But digging through the tough clay soil here two days ago, I found things moist in the top two inches or so of soil, then it was still dusty underneath that.

Also the "Woof River" as we call it here, a tiny stream that runs by our house, is still dry, as it has been since June. 

The drought might or might not continue, but with the normal change in weather patterns, we can hope that northern areas get better rains without flooding out soggy southern Vermont. No guarantees, but here's typical autumn scenarios, from worst to best for southern areas of the state.

DYING HURRICANES

Not a great option for southern Vermont.  Former tropical storms and hurricanes can drop a tremendous amount of rain in the autumn.  Problem is, they usually come up from the south, and can drop their heaviest downpours over southern Vermont.  That would lead to flood problems, but if the rains get far enough north, they can alleviate drought near the Canadian border.

NOR'EASTERS

These coastal storms become more and more common especially as you get toward late autumn. Again, not as great for southern Vermont as they tend to drop more rain there. But if they come inland far enough, northern areas can share in the bounty, too.

Of course, nor'easters can often draw down cold air from Canada and can result in early season snowstorms. 

GREAT LAKES BOMBS

This is a great option for northern Vermont, but can come at a steep price for those who live near the Great Lakes or even northern Plains. 

In the autumn, especially when you get into October and November, storms moving northward from the Midwest into the Great Lakes often "bomb out." They get energy from the still relatively warm Great Lakes and become monster, strong storms.

These can be really, really bad. This type of storm caused the famous "Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald" in 1975, and a November, 2013 example created a large Illinois tornado outbreak that killed 11 people and caused $1.6 billion in damage.

Cold fronts associated with these storms often slow down when they reach the eastern Great Lakes and the east coast. Lots of moisture can ride up along these fronts and cause heavy rain.  Or, a storm can form along one of these slow cold fronts. That sometimes prolongs and intensifies the rains over Vermont.

If we get a few of those storms, that would help

FRIENDLY SOUTHWEST WINDS 

If we get into a long lasting or frequent pattern of a jet stream coming at Vermont from the southwest, that would be a great scenario, especially for northern parts of the state.

That would lead to frequent storms with rain practically every other day.  Each individual storm probably wouldn't drop much rain, but the frequency of these storms would add up. A few of these storms could also scoop up some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, enhancing the rainfall.

We've sort of been in this pattern for a few days and it looks like it might continue for a few more, so more shower chances are coming. This has helped northern Vermont a little in the past week, and might continue to do so. 

BAD SCENARIOS

Here's two weather patterns common in the autumn which would make the northern Vermont drought persist or even get worse

What I might call a ridge roadblock sometimes sets up in the autumn, in which a strong upper level ridge sets up over southeastern Canada. That would give us delightful Indian Summer weather, with abnormally warm temperatures and lots of sunshine. But it would also deflect storms away from us.  This set up would also tend to steer hurricanes into the southeastern United States instead of recurving harmlessly out in the open Atlantic Ocean

Another common scenario is a deep dip in the jet stream over us or just to the east. That would make it cold here, and deflect wet, juicy storms off to our south and east. We'd be left with almost worthless cold, light rain showers or gusty snow flurries.  And also lousy weather for outdoor fall fun.

I don't really trust long range forecasts, but for what it's worth, many of the predictions I've seen call for warmer than average temperatures. These forecasts are also undecided on whether we'll be wet or dry for the rest of the autumn. 

Again, for what it's worth, the U.S. Drought Monitor is optimistic.  They're predicting we'll get enough rain in the coming weeks and months so that they can remove the drought designation for northern Vermont. 

So Far Warm Nights Reign Supreme This Year

Home sweet home. Suns sets over my St. Albans, 
Vermont home during yet another very 
balmy September evening.

 We're back in a trend that seems to be the theme of this year in Vermont so far: Warm nights, relatively speaking.  

By now, we usually start talking about frost in the cold spots around Vermont, but there's no hint of that in the forecast.

In Vermont's banana belt around Burlington, the "coldest" night so far this month was 56 degrees at a time of year that it often gets well down into the 40s.  (Tonight will get down to around 50, so closer).

The last time it was under 50 degrees in Burlington was June 23.

Meanwhile, afternoon highs so far this month have mostly been a little on the cool side, so that overall temperatures so far this month are near normal. That's the newly introduced "new normal," which is warmer than it used to be due to climate change. 

This month is echoing July, which was a tad cooler than average in Vermont under the "new normal."  But nights were a little warmer than average that month. Cloudiness kept afternoon highs depressed during most of July, leading to the relatively "cool" month.

 The trend over recent years with climate change is that nights are warming faster than days. So in general, it's harder to get cold nights. 

Harder, but not impossible. The weather pattern could always flip.   It is of course still possible we could get early frosts this month.  Looking further ahead, there's always a chance that we could have a spell of record low temperatures  But the chances of warm nights, and also record highs during the days are greater than the chances of record lows these days. 

Eight or nine months in one location doesn't prove or disprove much of anything with climate change, but the stats this year from Burlington are kind of telling. We've had seven record highs so far this year but no record lows. 

Record highs far outpacing record lows in the United States
in recent years. Click on the image to make it bigger and
easier to read.

Nationally, record highs are far outpacing record lows at reporting stations.  So far more than 20,000 record highs have been set this year, twice the number of record lows. This despite an incredible February cold snap that brought contributed about 4,000 record lows to the tally. 

Last year had a similar ratio of record highs to record lows.

I didn't keep track of record warm low temperatures this year but there were a few remarkable overnights and mornings. At dawn on Christmas Day last year it was in the low 60s, at a time of year and day when it should have been in the low teens. 

There were a couple mornings in March that were in the 50s, and a few overnights in May that stayed in the upper 60s. And as mentioned previously, we endured 11 nights in August that failed to get under 70 degrees.

These warm nights do have implications in our daily lives. Some of them are benefits.  Warm winter nights help with our fuel bills.  Warmer nights generally extend the growing season, though that can be unreliable. One cold night can screw things up royally, even if most evenings are balmy.

Warmer nights can shorten the ice fishing season and make it less safe.  And it can cut the number of hours Vermont ski areas can make snow to replenish slopes after thaws.

We can't say precisely in the coming weeks or months to what extent this warm night trend will continue. But over the next week at least, there's a good possibility that Burlington will continue to stay continuously above 50 degrees. There might even be a night or two in there that feels vaguely muggy, though the worst of summer's heat is certainly gone.

If this keeps up though, you can continue comfortably having dinner out on the deck well into the autumn. 

Wednesday Storms Start Late, But Impress; Ma Nature Throws Gas On Fire

Skies grew ominous over the Champlain Valley of Vermont
late Wednesday afternoon. 

As a weather geek, it was fun to watch how storms belatedly blossomed in Vermont Wednesday as a cold front slowly crept toward and into the Green Mountain State.  

All morning and most of the afternoon, a band of rain with the front slowly worked eastward across New York toward Vermont. 

 There was nothing remarkable about this area of rain.  When it got to my area in far northwestern Vermont it only dropped a third of an inch of rain over several hours.

But as the front got just a little further south and east, I watched as things got interesting. From where I was in South Burlington late Wednesday afternoon, I saw the clouds to the west and southwest turn very dark and very interesting. Suddenly, the boring radar images showed torrential rains blossoming.  Alerts started buzzing out of the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

The storm suddenly turned severe, tossing trees down in Shelburne, Hinesburg and a few other places in Chittenden County. Blinding rain quickly flooded streets. Hail pinged off my truck hood and windshield. 

The approaching storm grew more intense as it approached
the Burlington area......

Where did THAT come from? Forecasters has been watching all day, waiting for some expected extra lift in the atmosphere from a disturbance that would be riding northeastward along the front. 

 That didn't seem to materialize until very late in the afternoon, when BOOM - that bit of atmospheric juice arrived to quickly set off that thunderstorm.

Basically, Mother Nature threw gasoline on a smoldering fire.  

Once that atmospheric energy was added to the mix, a long line of strong thunderstorms eventually stretched from Vermont's Northeast Kingdom all the way down to the Catskill Mountains in southern New York.  

Severe storm warnings and flood advisories crackled up and down the state and into southwestern New England as that line slowly pushed east. Tree damage was reported as far south as Connecticut.

In the grand scheme of things, this was nowhere near an extreme event.  There was damage, but it certainly wasn't a full blown disaster. It was dramatic, especially when a spectacular post-storm sunset entered the picture, but it wasn't terrifying. Just kinda cool, if you ask me. 

...unleashing torrential rains...

Plus there was a lucky break. The storm in Chittenden County produced a microburst over Lake Champlain. 

Microbursts are bad, as they consist of a mad rush of powerful winds that race down vertically from the sky and can cause a lot of tree and structural damage.

Winds from microbursts then spread out, and as they do so, eventually weaken. Which meant the full force of Wednesday's microburst missed where most people live. 

Though I know a number of trees got toppled by the wind on Harbor Road out on Shelburne Point, so they got some of it. 

The cold front that caused Wednesday's excitement is now heading into eastern New England.  It's temporarily stalling out, and could cause a nasty flood situation in Downeast Maine today. A few inches of rain could fall there during the day today. 

...and street flooding in Burlington, Vermont....

Back here in Vermont,  storminess in the upper levels of the atmosphere will touch off scattered showers today and tonight, but they won't have nearly the amount of drama as Wednesday evening's weather did.

I also want to take the opportunity to give a huge Raspberry to the New York Post.  There were concerns about renewed flash flooding and possible tornadoes in southern New York and New Jersey Wednesday. This just days after the devastating floods last week.

The Post tried to claim the predicted rough weather there was due to Hurricane Larry.  

But Larry was 800 miles off the coast and was having zero impact on the weather around New York City, aside from rip currents and swells at the beaches.  

But adding "Larry" would bring extra social media clicks and revenue to the New York Post.  Never mind that the the predicted New Jersey/New York weather trouble would be entirely caused by the same cold front that gave Vermont its thunderstorms.  

And the storm department, leaving us with a
spectacular sunset.

In any event, there ended up being little storm damage in New Jersey and New York last evening.

Speaking of Larry, it's still expected to sideswipe Bermuda and then kick the southeast corner of Labrador late Friday or early Saturday before heading to its cold death near Greenland Sunday.

Tropical Storm Mindy abruptly spun up south of the Florida Panhandle Wednesday, spinning off a few local flash floods and tornado alerts before coming ashore and falling apart.  It could cause some flooding in Georgia and South Carolina today, but overall, not a big storm there.  

Another tropical system might affect the western Gulf of Mexico next week, and the National Hurricane Center will watch a disturbance come off the western African coast. That might spin up a hurricane next week, but it will be way out to sea.  If that system does grow, it won't affect any major land areas for many days, if at all.

Stormy Wednesday In Vermont

Today's severe thunderstorm outlook: A few cases
of damaging winds possible in dark green area.
Slightly  higher risk in yellow. 

If you like wet and windy, today might be your kind of day here in Vermont.

Forecasts haven't changed much since yesterday,  and a band of showers and storms is still on the schedule to come through the Green Mountain State this afternoon and tonight.

There's still the risk of locally damaging storms embedded in this line.  And some places will see some pretty heavy rains out of this.

Let's get into the deets, shall we?

The storm creating our turbulent weather already has a bit of a history, having set off quite a few severe thunderstorms and even a couple of tornadoes around the central Great Lakes and on into Ontario. 

Tennis ball size hail was reported in eastern Wisconsin, winds gusted to 70 mph or more in  northern Illinois and caused damage and widespread power failures in part of Ontario.

Things won't be quite as dramatic as that, but still, we'll want to keep a eye on the weather today here in Vermont. 

Today is not the day to be out boating around Lake Champlain. Even before any showers and storms get going, winds will gust much of the day to 40 mph, with wave heights three to five feet.  Winds won't be quite as strong as that outside the Champlain Valley today, but you might get a few gusts.

The upper air flow is almost parallel with the approaching cold front, so the band of rough weather later today will only slowly make its way through. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks the storminess will reach the Champlain Valley around 5 or 6 pm. this afternoon and be across central Vermont by dark.

While all parts of Vermont could see isolated instances of damaging winds with these storms, the best chance seems to be in the central and southern Champlain Valley and on into Rutland County. That's the area that seems to be most primed for strong storms.

Marginal risk of flash flooding in
dark green areas Yellow areas at
somewhat higher risk

The Storm Prediction Center even has that zone in a very, very low but not zero chance of having a brief tornado. What is it about Addison County that attracts the storms anyway?  In any event, if there is any severe weather, the greater chance is for damaging straight line winds.

The next trick with this cold front is heavy rain. Those strong south winds you're feeling this morning are pumping in some humid air, so those storms coming in will have some downpours.

For the most part, they're still expected to move slowly but steadily eastward, so they're unlikely to cause much flooding since they won't sit in one spot for too long. 

Still, there's the chance that the line of storms could get a little hung up in its passage across Vermont. That would mean we'd get those "training" storms that I've brought up in this here blog thingy in the past. Essentially, those are storms that go over the same area repeatedly, like boxcars passing by on the railroad tracks. 

It that happens, we could get some scattered instances of flash flooding this evening, so you'll want to be careful with that.  Even without "training" some storms could cause some trouble with street flooding in more urban areas.

Behind the front, there's still a chance of some scattered showers Thursday, but no biggie. Friday will offer another taste of autumn as daytime temperatures stay in the 60s an gusty northwest winds keep blowing.