Cold Snap Is Here, Thankfully Summer Returns In Just A Few Days

Photo from New Hampshire's Mount Washington 
Observatory shows rime ice forming this morning atop
the mountain, where it was 28 degrees at dawn. 

The last and strongest of series of cold fronts blasted through Vermont overnight with a gush of strong north winds and ever so brief downpours. Welcome now to October in June.  

Or maybe January if you're way up high.  When you get these weird bowling balls of chilly air coming down from the North Pole this time of year, it tends to stay warmish in the valleys, but the mountains cool off fast. 

And they did.

What a lovely morning to report from atop Mount Washington. As of early this morning, the temperature there was 28 degrees with dense fog as they're in the clouds. Rime ice is forming up there.  The wind on Mount Washington was northwest at 62 mph, yielding a wind chill of 8 above.

I looked at the Whiteface Mountain, New York webcam   at an elevation of about 4,800 feet and of course all I could see was dense fog. They're in the clouds. I couldn't tell if that was ice or water on the camera lens. 

It wasn't quite so bad atop Vermont's Mount Mansfield, and so far at least, it appears to be too warm for snow up there.   At last check this morning, it was 39 degrees up there with a northwest wind gusting to 55 mph. 

As advertised, today is not a great day for a hike.'

Even in the lowlands. We're starting the day with temperatures that actually aren't that unusual for this time of year. Most of us were in the upper 40s to low 50s as dawn broke.

Trouble is, temperatures just won't rise much by afternoon. Especially in northern Vermont, which has a higher chance of rain today.

Most of the area north of Route 2 will rain lightly most of the day, with a stiff northwest wind holding temperatures in the low 50s..We're still actually looking at "high" temperatures in the 40s in parts of the Northeast Kingdom.

With such low temperatures today, we're lucky skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy tonight and a breeze will continue. That will prevent anyone from getting a late season frost.

We in northern New England can consider ourselves the odd man out, given how many places are having record breaking heat waves.

France, Germany and other western European nations are expecting the hottest temperatures for so early in the season over this weekend.  France already logged temperatures as high as 104 degrees Friday, which for them is the earliest recorded.

The hot dry weather has already helped set forests ablaze in Spain and Germany.

Heat is also building once again in the middle of the United States. Head advisories and warnings are in effect for places as far north as the Canadian border in North Dakota. 

Even the normally sultry South is expecting worse heat than normal, with heat advisories from Louisiana to Florida. Orlando, Florida could hit 100 degrees for the first time in several years today.  It's as bad a day to visit Disney as it is for a hike in Vermont.

Places like Mississippi and Alabama are expecting highs in the 95 to 100 degree range daily for at least a week.

That heat dome in the middle of the nation will actually help free us from the current autumn in summer weekend.  It'll wobble a little east, and the overall jet stream pattern will flatten.  That will allow warmer air to sneak in from the west as the week goes on.

Thankfully, the bulk of the heat will stay well to our west. It'll gradually warm up, and from Wednesday onward into next weekend, we should see highs temperatures in the low 80s, which would actually be a wee bit warmer than normal for late June. Won't that be nice?

Big Storms Died On Approach To Vermont As Expected; Few Storms Today, Shocking Cold Weekend

Those big blobs you see in this satellite photo near 
western and northern New York and over Montreal are
intense late afternoon thunderstorms Thursday.
They rapidly weakened later as they moved into Vermont.

 From a weather geek's perspective, anyway, it was fascinating to watch how relatively stable air over Vermont chewed up, destroyed and spit out what had been some powerful thunderstorms approaching from the west and north Thursday evening. 

There had been a tornado watch out for all but eastern New York. It felt like tornado weather here in Vermont too, as winds became strong and gusty from the south, seemingly feeding  into the line of storms and supercells over the St. Lawrence River Valley and near Montreal.

The storms caused flooding and wind damage around Montreal.  Many trees and power lines came down in northwestern and far northern New York, too. 

Radar showed one severe storm managed to make it all the way into far northwestern Vermont  before dying out as it approached Jay Peak.  That storm pounded Highgate with hail at least the size of quarter, and cars there are reportedly dented.  

Just a little to the south and east was me, in St. Albans. The approaching storm looked menacing, a solid line of black to my west in New York State.  By the time the storm was overhead, though, it was just a gentle thundershower. I saw a few cloud to cloud lightning strokes. Winds gusted to about 30 mph under the storm, which was actually calmer than the winds in the hours leading up to the storm. Rainfall was moderate. 

By the time the storms reached Burlington, they could only muster 0.04 inches of rain. 

Another couple of cold fronts are coming through today. They'll set off more showers and storms.  Almost everybody will have at least a sprinkle. The showers were passing through northwestern Vermont this morning. 

Storms looked ominous on approach to St. Albans, 
Vermont Thursday evening, but were rather gentle
by the time they rolled into town. 

A few lucky devils might see some gusty winds and small hail, especially east of the Green Mountains. That's because there will be a few hours of heating before the showers get there. The sun's heat will help destabilize the air, giving a little extra energy to the showers and storms. 

Then "winter" arrives.

COLD WAVE TO IMPRESS

After seasonable temperatures in the 70s to around 80, the second cold front comes through this evening, and that one will mean business. 

Temperatures will crash this evening and overnight to the 40s to around 50 by dawn. That's not so bad, but then readings won't go up much tomorrow.

Saturday's weather is actually a classic winter upslope snow event. In those winter situations, cold northwest winds go up and over the Green Mountains dumping half a foot or a foot of snow on the mountains. The snow showers often back up into the Champlain Valley, so a couple to a few inches of snow pile up there, too.

But it's June. It's pretty hard to get snow near the Summer Solstice. That said, it's still looking cold enough for some wet snow flakes Saturday morning at the summits of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. That's pretty unusual for late June. 

The chill tomorrow is also impressive.  Light rain now expected most of the day in the Champlain Valley will keep things particularly chilly. The record for lowest high temperature for Saturday is 56 degrees, and that might well be challenged.

Some colder spots in mid to high elevations and in the Northeast Kingdom might not get out of the 40s Saturday afternoon. Brisk north winds will make things feel even colder.

Though the coldest hollows might get into the 30s at night during this cold snap, it's good to know it won't get quite nippy enough to produce late season frost. 

The strong upper level low causing this summer chill is looking like it will move out more slowly than earlier forecasts indicated. So Sunday is looking a little cloudier, and a little colder than first forecast. Western Vermont could see highs topping 60 degrees Sunday, while eastern Vermont, especially north of White River Junction stays in the 50s. 

That's still very, very cold for June.

We're still looking at a slow warmup to seasonable weather once again by midweek, so summer ain't over, despite this weekend's very autumnal chill.

Worst Storms Still To Miss Us; Vermont Saturday To Be Even Colder Than First Thought, Baking Elsewhere

UPDATE: 4 p.m. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is focusing on the
red circle, and especially the pink circle within it,
as the likeliest spot for a tornado or two this evening.
Despite the close proximity of Vermont to this.
storms are expected to weaken sharply as they
approach the Green Mountain State later this evening. 

Normally, if I looked at the way radar and satellite images look now, I'd say things look ominous for Vermont. But I'm still not super concerned. 

True, rotating supercells have erupted in southern Ontario and Quebec and are edging into western New York.

A tornado watch is in effect as far east as the central Adirondacks.

In the St. Lawrence Valley, temperatures are well into the 80s and dew points are in the low 70s, extremely humid.  That's a trigger to sustain those storms.

The humidity extends all the way northeastward to Montreal. 

We'll probably hear a number of damage reports from Ontario, Quebec, New York and Pennsylvania today. Forecasters see a tornado threat late this afternoon in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York and central parts of that state. 

However, we in Vermont still seem protected from these storms, as awful as this looks on paper. More stable, slightly cooler air is still circulating into Vermont on strong southeast winds.  Temperatures are lower and dew points are only in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Still, the humidity has crept up a bit in northwestern Vermont.  A lone thunderstorm in northern Vermont this morning proved we can sustain some storms. 

However, those powerful storms still look like they will be in a sharp weakening trend as they move toward and into Vermont later this evening. Stable air from the Atlantic is the bane of severe storms. It will be interesting to see how fast the storms weaken.

Still, I do see the possibility of some decent lightning, some downpours and even perhaps gusty winds over northwestern Vermont especially this evening.  This is especially true if more of that stable air erodes out of the New York side of the Champlain Valley. 

It won't be nearly as dangerous as it is in New York State now, but there's still a low chance of a relatively strong storm in Vermont. However, we still appear to be dodging another bullet. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Enjoy the summer-ish weather today and to a certain extent tomorrow, because summer in Vermont is about to go on hiatus for a few days. 

Meanwhile, forecasts are consistent that powerful, sometimes severe thunderstorms expected to erupt in western and central New York today will either miss us entirely by going to our south, or just fizzling out on their way to the Green Mountain State. 

Some of us did manage to get a little rain this morning as once was a cluster of thunderstorms decayed into showers as they zipped through New York and Vermont. 

Most of rest of today should stay pretty much rain-free, with maybe just a few isolated showers. We'll deal with gusty south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. It'll be a little more humid, too, as temperatures once again get up to about 80 degrees or so. 

Those decaying showers and storms should move into Vermont this evening. They will have weakened rapidly by the time they get to Vermont because much of today's air is coming from the Atlantic Ocean. That air tends to be stable and not able to support the updrafts that keep thunderstorms going. 

Still, many of us will see rain, and some rumbles of thunder. That stable air near the surface means there could be a bit of a temperature inversion.  If that happens and it thunders, the thunder might seem louder, and more rolling and a bit more strange than how we usually hear it. 

This first round will be Cold Front #1. The air behind this first one isn't that cold, so we'll still pop up into the seasonable 70s to around 80 Friday. Then Cold Front #2 comes in with its own batch of showers and storms Friday. 

It looks like Vermont continues its charmed life. Though a few storms might be strong-ish, particularly in eastern Vermont, most of any severe storms that due form would be east or south of us. 

COLD WAVE

Trends have been for making the anticipated June chill this weekend even chillier than we first thought. Definitely bring your fleece to whatever outdoor event you might be going to. 

It now appears temperatures Saturday afternoon will stay in the 50s for the vast majority of the area. Basically, high temperatures Saturday will be the same or even a little colder than what is normally our low temperatures for this time of year. 

It's even possible that the coldest places in the Northeast Kingdom could stay in the upper 40s. I did a spot check of National Weather Service forecasts up that way. A for instance is the remote town of Averill. The expected "high" temperature there Saturday is 47 degrees.  Brrr!

Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will actually add a wind chill to the mix.  Light, but cold showers will be scattered around as well.

Yesterday, I speculated about snow atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire. That looks even more likely now. There could even be some wet snow flakes Saturday morning on the summits of mountains like Camels Hump, Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak. 

Thankfully, there probably will be too many clouds and too many breezes to create any kind of nighttime frost threat, except perhaps in the most protected, coldest valleys of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. 

It'll be a little better on Sunday. We'll see more periods of sun. Northwest winds will remain brisk but not as gusty as on Saturday. And highs will get into the 60s. That's still quite cold for this time of year, but not as awful.

Trends continue to bring our temperatures back up to near or just a smidge below normal for the first half of next week, so this extremely early preview of autumn won't last all that long.

By the way, the expected chill in northern New England and Quebec this weekend is an exception.  There's always hot and cold spots somewhere on Earth.  The hot spots this weekend will be quite hot. 

Parts of western Europe will be close to record highs for so early in the summer. Record heat has baked much of the central U.S. for the past few days  That heat is forecast to reassert itself and become intense again across large swaths of the central and southern U.S. this weekend and early next week.

Many more record high temperatures are expected to fall in much of the U.S. through at least early next week. Just not here in Vermont. 

One More Nice Day, Then Big Changes Still Scheduled

Severe storms are expected to develop in New York State\
tomorrow. Vermont looks like it will continue to live
its charmed life as the storms are forecast to fizzle
on approach to Vermont 

 Yesterday was about as fine a June day as you can get in Vermont.  We had those blue skies mixed with puffy clouds warm temperatures and comfortable humidity. What's not to love about it?

If you missed out on this, you have another chance today. 

Then the weather gets unsettled, but Vermont will continue to lead its charmed life: A threat of severe storms later tomorrow will fizzle as they approach the Green Mountain State.

For several days, we've been watching severe weather dance along the edges of a torrid heat wave baking the South and middle of the nation.

A warm front tomorrow will make that heat come closer to us, but not quite make it into the area.  The warmth and humidity will soar across pretty much all of New York State except the extreme eastern part of Empire State.

Here in Vermont, it will turn warmish and somewhat more humid on Thursday, but it won't be anything extreme.

The oppressive air in New York State will set the stage for possible severe thunderstorms there. All of New York west of the Hudson Valley and Adirondacks are under a slight risk level of severe weather. There could even be a brief tornado or two in the western half of New York and Pennsylvania.

These storms might end up looking ominous on radar for us Vermonters. After all, severe storms that develop in New York often end up here. 

But the air will be much more stable here. The storms are expected to rapidly weaken on approach. Sure, there will be a fair number of showers around Thursday evening and night and there could be some rumbles of thunder, but at this point, severe weather is not looking like much of a threat to us.

I'll update of course if the air turns out to be more humid and unstable than current forecasts show.

Friday will be another transition day as that unusually strong June cool spell starts headed into our neck of the woods.  We should see more showers around, especially north. Though it will probably make it into the seasonable 70s during the day, you'll notice it cooling off later in the afternoon and night. 

Saturday looks cold for this time of year. It is June, though, so it can't get that nippy.  Still, highs then will only make it into the low 60s north, and mid to upper 60s southern Valleys. The Northeast Kingdom probably won't even make it out of the 50s for highs. 

The record for the lowest 'high" temperature in Burlington for Saturday's date is 56 degrees in 1959. That record does seem safe. But normal high temperatures this time of year should be in the mid and upper 70s, so yeah, bring your fleece if you're going to some sort of outdoor event Saturday.

The sun is as strong as it can get this time of year.  That means the sun's heat will create updrafts that will create scattered, chilly showers. Those showers will produce downdrafts that will grab even colder air from aloft. Which means it will feel quite cold under those showers. If you do get caught in a shower Saturday afternoon, temperatures might briefly dip down into the 50s. 

I certainly don't think it will be cold enough for snow at summit level in the Green Mountains, but I'll be interested to see if the top of New Hampshire's Mount Washington sees any flurries on Saturday. In any event, Saturday won't be a great day for a mountain hike. 

It'll warm up somewhat after Saturday, but temperatures will remain a little below normal at least into the middle of next week.

 

Another Derecho, This Time In Midwest, And Yellowstone Drowns

All those blue and black dots extending from Wisconsin
 to West Virginia represent storm damage reports from
an apparent derecho yesterday and last night. 

 Along the western, northern and eastern edges of big heat waves, you often see violent thunderstorms, the so called "Ring Of Fire" I talked about earlier this week. 

That is certainly the case with the current record heat wave gripping the middle and south of the nation. An apparent derecho formed yesterday afternoon, bringing winds gusts of up to 84 mph at Chicago's O'Hare Airport and a 98 mph gust to Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Meanwhile, out on the northwest edge of the heat, an unprecedented flood hit areas in and near Yellowstone National Park.

DERECHO

It's already been a bad year for derechos, which are defined as damaging and dangerous thunderstorm complexes that travel at least 240 miles, spreading destruction along the way. 

I don't think it's been officially declared yet, but it's apparent a derecho originated in southern Wisconsin Monday afternoon, then roared southeastward through the Chicago area, Indiana, Ohio and into West Virginia. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 382 thunderstorm wind reports yesterday and last night, most of them in the Wisconsin to West Virginia swath. 

In Chicago, tornado sirens blared and echoed around downtown skyscrapers. No tornado is known so far to have touched down, but there was plenty of wind damage with those 84 mph gusts. Many cars and houses were damaged by falling trees. The roof of a three story apartment building peeled away. 

Travelers at O'Hare were ordered into below ground shelters or packed themselves into rest rooms, which double as tornado shelters. The air traffic control tower was evacuated, there was obviously a ground stop on all flights, so everything was and still is badly disrupted. Some planes had to be checked for hail damage before being allowed to fly. 

At least 44,000 people were without power. Some won't have their power back until after today. Record heat and humidity is forecast today in Chicago.

That 98 mph wind gust in Fort Wayne is the strongest ever recorded in that city. A SkyWest hangar near the airport was blown to pieces.  Extensive tree damage and widespread power outages continued on into Ohio and parts of West Virginia. All these areas are under the gun for record heat today. Many people will have to endure the heat without air conditioning. 

If last night's weather is confirmed as a derecho, it will already be the third destructive and deadly one to hit North America this year. On May 12, a derecho, accompanied by dust storms struck South Dakota and neighboring parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota, killing two people and causing widespread damage, including the South Dakota cities of Sioux Falls, Watertown and Brookings.

Another derecho in southern Ontario and Quebec hit the most populated section of Canada on May 21 causing at least ten deaths in towns near Toronto and Ottawa. 

Part of a house falls into a flooding river in Gardiner, Montana
Monday during unprecedented flooding in and near 
Yellowstone National Park. Photo by Steve Rupho via CNN

YELLOWSTONE FLOOD

On the northwest side of the heat wave, high temperatures rapidly melted mountain snows, and torrential thunderstorms swept through areas around Yellowstone.  The combination caused unprecedented flooding in rivers across northwestern Wyoming and parts of Montana.

Yellowstone National Park was completely shut down by the flooding. The torrents swept away bridges, collapsed roads, washed away or flooded cabins and homes and stranded an unknown number of tourists. 

Luckily, the rain there is tapering off and temperatures are cooling, but the damage is done.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State continues to be one of the few areas in the nation with benign weather. We have gorgeous days today and tomorrow with sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity.

Thursday looks a bit more humid, and we'll probably see some showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. But this still looks like it won't be anything extreme. Forecasts are also steady for an unusually cool weekend and early next week. 

"Omega Block" To Create Some Big U.S. Weather Contrasts By The Weekend

The weather pattern expected to shape up this 
weekend and early next week over the U.S. A big
ridge of high pressure in the middle of the nation
will keep that area very hot, while the Northwest and
Northeast will be unusually cool. 

 The heat wave grinds on today in the South and parts of the Midwest, with temperatures today up to 100 degrees expected as far north as Yankton, South Dakota and as far north as Chicago tomorrow and Wednesday.  

The heat will grind on in the South especially this week, but we'll remain protected from the scorching weather by a northwest wind flow.  

Over the weekend, the weather pattern over the United States will take on a symmetrical form, with two strong upper level low pressure areas over the northwest and northeast corners of the nation, and a strong, wicket hot dome of high pressure smack dab in the middle. 

It's called an Omega block since the jet stream pattern resembles that of Omega. 

This all means that the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, and New England will be unseasonably cool while temperatures rocket past 100 degrees in the Plains again late this weekend and early next week.

As this weather pattern gradually takes shape, it's already pretty chilly in the northwest. We even see a winter storm warning of all things in effect for high elevations in and  near Glacier National Park in Montana.

Several inches of snow are forecast above 5,000 feet in elevation, and up to two feet above 7,000 feet. Not a great time to hike through that national park!

I think some highest elevations in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies might have some snow issues well into the weekend. 

Eventually, hiking will become no picnic here in Vermont, either. The upcoming weekend cool spell won't feature snow, except perhaps atop Mount Washington. But after some pleasant days through Wednesday and a rain and storm risk Thursday and Friday, things do get chilly, especially in the mountains. 

The weather pattern, with the jet stream 
configuration as described in image above
is called an Omega block because it 
resembles the symbol from the
Greek alphabet 

The weekend if five days away, so the forecast will need to be fine-tuned. But at this point, expect some very nippy weather, and some cold showers, especially on the Green Mountain summits. I picture temperatures near 40, gusty winds causing sub-freezing wind chills and those light, but cold showers by Sunday up there.

Down here in the valleys were most of us live, it won't be that dramatic, but I expect we'll have a fairly long spell of not beach weather. We'll revert back to what is normal May weather, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50 during that spell of chill.

Omega blocks are usually slow to break down, so once the cooler air hits us by Saturday, it could last quite awhile, maybe even a week or more. For what it's worth, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center keeps us cooler than normal pretty much to the end of the month. 

That doesn't mean every day from this weekend onward to the end of the month will be cool.  It just means that chances are that most days will be on the cool side. 

June Heat Wave Intensifies, So Does "Ring Of Fire" Vermont Sits On Sidelines

National Weather Service home page this morning shows
huge areas under varying heat alerts (the pinks, purples
and oranges on the map). The heat is not headed
toward us here in Vermont. 

 It's been a rather rough weekend weather wise for a good portion of the United States with widespread heat, and large patches of severe storms on the edges of that heat wave.  

Once again, Vermont if blissfully sitting on the sidelines of this bad weather. 

Nothing notable will happen here in the next few days. No extremes in temperatures, nothing impressive with rainfall, and little if any risk of severe storms. 

The Green Mountain State has been lucky in the past couple of years, really, missing out on most of the constant parade of extreme weather events afflicting the nation in the world. 

Over the past two years or so we in Vermont have had a few spells of record heat, and some weird storms, but nothing as off the charts as many other areas have seen. 

The heat, as expected, is expanding eastward from the Desert Southwest. Heat warnings and advisories cover an enormous patch of real estate. These advisories extend from California to Nebraska to Alabama. CNN reports 65 million people are covered by these heat alerts. 

Record highs keep falling. Denver on Saturday tied the mark for the earliest 100 degree reading on record. 

Record highs on Friday included 113 in Phoenix, 109 in Las Vegas, 103 in Austin, 100 in Grand Junction, Colorado and 87 degrees up in the mountains at Flagstaff, Arizona.

Between now and Wednesday, record high temperatures are forecast to be scattered across almost the entire southern two thirds of the United States. These high temperatures will even sneak up to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes early and midweek with highs in the mid and upper 90s forecast in places like Minneapolis, Des Moines, Chicago and Detroit.

While it will briefly turn warm and humid here in Vermont around Thursday, the worst of the heat will miss us as cold fronts will shove the heat to our south.

Normally, along the edges of heat waves, batches of severe storms often form. The heat can make the air highly unstable.  Little pushes of cooler air, or nearby cold fronts just to the north of the heat can be triggers for intense clusters of storms. 

Huge areas of the nation have at least a little risk of severe
thunderstorms today. (dark green and yellow). Light green
areas might have some non-severe storms. Once again,
Vermont avoids the extreme stuff. 

That's precisely what we've been seeing this weekend and will see for the next few days. There were a smattering of tornadoes in Nebraska and Kansas Saturday, with many other reports of baseball and tennis ball sized hail.

Today, areas of severe storms are forecast in a broad area from the Dakotas to Virginia and North Carolina. Many of those same areas are under the gun tomorrow.

Back here in Vermont, all is quiet once again. We should see some showers and rumbles of thunder scattered around very late today and tonight. This won't be a big deal at all and some areas might not see any rain at all. Or very little. It'll be hit and miss.

Then it will be very pleasant again Monday through Wednesday with near normal temperatures (highs in the mid 70s to around 80).  Showers come back into the picture Thursday and Friday, again not looking like that big a deal. 

Then we turn cool again.  No heat waves for you, kiddies in Vermont. We'll just stay in our calm little Green Mountain bubble.