Cyclone Freddy Turned Much More Tragic As It Broke Records For Longevity, Power

Satellite photo of Cyclone Freddy between Madagascar and
Mozambique.  It caused catastrophic flooding and 
will go down in history as the world's longest 
lasting tropical cyclone on record. 

 Back on March 9, I posted on a storm known as Cyclone Freddy, which was near the east coast of Africa that day. 

It was about to break records for the longest lasting tropical cyclone on record for anywhere on Earth.

So here's a followup: 

Unfortunately, since then, Freddy strengthened, and slammed into Mozambique for a second time, and in this second hit, unleaded floods that killed hundreds. 

At last check, Freddy had killed no fewer than 522 people in Mozambique, Malawi and Madagascar. 

As Al Jazeeri reports, Mozambique and Malawi were both dealing with cholera outbreaks before the storm, so this will only make things worse.

The storm finally dissipated last Wednesday inland over Mozambique as it continued to unleash its torrential rains. 

It looks like Freddy lasted 36 days, which would exceed the record by Typhoon/Hurricane John in the Pacific Ocean back in 1994. It's unusual for a tropical system to last more than a couple weeks. 

It's unclear how climate change affected Freddy's strength and longevity, but it's certainly more than plausible that had an effect.  Climate scientists warn that in many parts of the world, tropical cyclones are becoming more powerful and persistent under the influence of a warming planet. 

As Guy On Climate put it:

"It's fairly easy to see why Freddy's behavior can be blamed on climate change. They system traversed warmer than average waters on its long path across the Indian Ocean and between Madagascar and the African coast."

The World Meteorological Organization will examine the history of Freddy and later certify whether or not it was indeed the record hold for most long-lived tropical cyclone. 

Did The Mississippi Tornadoes Friday Night Have To Be So Deadly?

Victims pick through the destruction of a deadly 
tornado in Rolling Fork, Mississippi, Photo via Twitter
by Aaron Rigsby @AaronRigsbyOSC

The death toll from Friday night's tornadoes in Mississippi rose to 26 as more severe weather and possible tornadoes pummeled the South on Sunday. 

I don't seen any reports of additional deaths on Sunday from the severe weather.  But I have to ask myself: Did that many people have to die in Friday's storms? 

This was the worst kind of tornado you could get. It was exceptionally strong, so unless you were in a storm shelter or extreme fortified building, chances of survival weren't great.

The tornado raced forward at 70 mph through the Mississippi darkness.  Before people knew it, it was upon them, despite warnings from the National Weather Service and highly dedicated, professional television meteorologists. 

People have a habit of relying on visual cues when endangered by a tornado. At night you don't have those cues.

With all those factors, it was almost inevitable there would be deaths and injuries. Even so, I'm convinced the toll of deaths and injuries cold have been lower.  

I've seen a lot of accurate commentary that the tornado hit an area with a lot of mobile homes, substandard housing and relative poverty.  Fear of a tornado tragedy like the one that hit towns like Rolling Fork have been a concern for years. 

True, some safe rooms and shelters opened to the public in some parts of Mississippi before Friday's storms. But I don't think there were enough community storm shelters for people in those mobile homes, or an effective system to coax residents out of their unsafe homes and into shelters in the hours before tornadoes touched down. 

Part of that is all the false alarms you get. Sometimes, a tornado watch is issued, but the tornadoes that do form don't seem particularly destructive. Or they are devastating, like on Friday night.  But these storms cover narrow paths. 

Thousands of people were at home just a few miles from the tornado path, blissfully unaware of the horrors nearby. 

Typically a tornado warning is issued anytime between a few minutes and a little less than a half hour before a twister strikes a particular location. That doesn't give much time to flee and drive to a shelter. It's really dangerous to be caught in a car during a tornado.

But forecasts continue to get better ahead of severe weather and tornadoes, with more lead time. Meteorologists are more and more frequently alerting specific target zones an hour or two ahead of time when they suspect a particularly dangerous situation will develop.

Friday night, about an hour and a half before the tornadoes starting raining death and destruction on Mississippi, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center released a statement. It said that thunderstorms that were about to cross the Mississippi River from Louisiana were entering an atmospheric environment that would encourage strengthening storms and tornadoes in Mississippi.

The statement said those atmospheric conditions seemed primed to create strong to intense tornadoes

This NOAA statement was released to the public, as all such short-term storm forecasts are,  but there were few systems in place to act on it. In a perfect world, that statement would have been the cue to quickly get people out of mobile homes in the northern half of Mississippi and into safer shelters for the night. 

NOAA released similar statements in the hour or two before a horrific tornado struck Mayfield, Kentucky in December, 2010.   Tornadoes that night killed 89 people, most of them in and near Mayfield. 

After that tornado, there were complaints that people were not allowed to leave work places or other sites to seek safe shelter in the time between the NOAA statement warning of impending danger and the time the tornado struck.  Similar complaints were made after a tornado warning came to fruition in Illinois that night, killing six people at an Amazon warehouse. 

It would take coordination and a little money to form a chain when these warnings are issued. You'd need shelters ready to open, then someone to help quickly flush people out of unsafe housing and into shelters in time for the tornado's arrival. 

A system like this would be especially helpful in the South, from Arkansas and Louisiana to Georgia. It's a region especially prone to strong, night time tornadoes, with large areas of poverty and substandard housing that's especially dangerous in such storms. 

As forecasting continues to improve in severe weather events, it's time to take that increased meteorological precision and put it to work for some of American's most vulnerable people. 

A new outbreak of severe weather seems likely late this week in the South and Midwest. If the Storm Prediction Center puts out more dire statements an hour or two before a powerful tornado, and people take heed, that will be a win. Hopefully the first of many wins. 

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: Meh! And Still Waiting For Spring

It's that kind of early spring, with half-melted snow
holding fast on the ground, clouds, scattered cold
rain and wet snow showers. And bits of sun. The
upcoming week will bring more of the same to Vermont. 

Thankfully, the snow in Saturday mostly under-performed rather than over-performed, as I had feared.

Judging from Vermont Agency of Transportation web cams and my own travels, most places in central and northern parts of the state got about a half inch to an inch of snow.The Champlain Valley south of Georgia, and low elevations in southwestern and southeastern Vermont got nada. Lucky of them! 

 I had about a half inch at my place in St. Albans, Vermont, which melted, only to be replaced by another half inch overnight. 

It's going to be that kind of week. 

We're going to stay in somewhat of a holding pattern in Vermont  this week. Spring won't really advance much, but winter won't win any really big battles. 

We'll just plod on, like we mostly have over the past couple of weeks, with a slow snow melt, with some minor setbacks with bits of snow here and there. 

Today sets the tone.  It'll be blustery and chilly, but not super cold for this time of year. A few rain showers will dampen the pavement here and there, and no doubt your spirits, too. The mountains and hills will see a few snow showers, and they'll get a bit of additional snow, probably two inches or less. 

Monday and Tuesday will feature some sun, some clouds, and daytime temperatures hovering in the upper 30s to low 40s as they  have been all month.  

Of course as they week goes on, and the forecast gets more long range, the reliability of these weather predictions starts to fade a little.

Still, it looks like a sharp cold front might come in Wednesday or Wednesday evening, first with maybe a few rain showers. It's possible this could end up giving us some snow squalls, too. Meteorologists will keep an eye on that. 

If we do get those snow squalls, it'll be just a couple of inches of snow, not some big foot deep blizzard. We have to keep trying to look on the bright side here. 

Thursday looks like it might actually be one of the colder days of this entire month. From this vantage point it looks like the afternoon would barely get above freezing. 

Early indications are we'll sort of warm up, and get some (mostly!)  rain next weekend. Let's just  hope it does turn out to be some light rain, and doesn't change into a late season snowstorm. I doubt it will, but judging how grudging this early spring has been so far, nothing would surprise me. 

There's not much hope looking into the first week to 10 days of April, either. The trends for the beginning of April are still leaning toward chillier than average weather with  near to slightly above normal rain and, um, snow.

Eventually, we'll have the kind of bright, sunny warm spring days we all deserve. But not anytime soon, the way it looks. 

Stormy, Ugly Day, Saturday Evening In Vermont

Clear skies and light winds at dawn this morning in St. 
Albans, Vermont seemed to promise a lovely Saturday.
Instead, we'll get blasted by a burst of wet snow,
gusty winds, cold rains and raw conditions. 

 If you were looking to enjoy the Great Outdoors in Vermont today, think again. 

It's going to be a stormy day and evening, with snow, rain, schmutz and wind. Though this will be no means be a paralyzing storm, it will just be unpleasant to say the least. 

As dawn broke, it didn't seem so bad out there. I was greeted by beautiful clear skies and calm winds at daybreak today  in St. Albans, Vermont, for instance.  But things will go downhill pretty quickly. 

From late morning into the afternoon, a band of relatively heavy precipitation will roam the state, heading southwest to northeast.  Before that hits, temperatures will rise above freezing, so you'd think we'll just get a cold rain. 

But the moisture associated with this band of stuff will cool the atmosphere, so most of us will see a burst of heavy, wet snow. 

I suspect it might snow hard enough for a time in any given location, even in the valleys, to make the roads slick for a little while at least.   It won't be much snow, but a little dab will do ya, especially if it's wet snow like this will be.

Most of any accumulation will be on grassy surfaces and on existing snow cover. Maybe one to at most two inches in the valleys and a little more than that in the mountains. Be aware that this burst of snow might over-perform. I've seen several situations in the past where in this weather set up, an expected dusting of snow turns into a few inches. 

That over-performance is not guaranteed today, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

While this is going on, the winds will be picking up. In most places, the gusts will reach to 35 or 40 mph. With snow changing to a light rain, with temperatures staying in the 30s, it's going to feel awfully raw out there. 

The western slopes of the Green Mountains are going to be even windier. A wind advisory is up for those parts of the state from mid-afternoon to about midnight tonight. Winds there could gust to 50 mph, or even more in a few favored spots. 

I expect a few scattered power outages out of this. But it won't be nearly as bad as the storm we had on March 14 and 15, when tens of thousands of Vermonters lost power in a heavy, wet snowstorm. 

The burst of snow will taper for a time to light rain showers in the valleys, with light mixed stuff in the mountains. 

Another period of mostly rain will come through later tonight. Temperatures overnight will only be in the mid-30s, the same as readings during the expected snow this afternoon. But by late tonight, warmer air will have  moved in aloft. 

Mountains could still get a little snow and sleet out of this, but most of us will see a cold rain.

Sunday will end up with typical March weather: Blustery, kind of chilly, maybe some scattered rain and snow showers, especially in the morning and in the mountains. 

We should count ourselves lucky with today's storm.  It's not nice, but it's also not destructive here in Vermont. The same storm spawned a deadly tornado in Mississippi last night, which I have more details on in another, separate post this morning in this here blog thingy. 

BREAKING: Violent Tornado Kills At Least 23 In Mississippi

Storm chaser Max Olsen, @MesoMax919 on Twitter,
captured the massive Mississippi tornado illuminated'
by lightning last night. 

A powerful tornado or tornadoes swept through western and central Mississippi overnight, killing at least 23 people, and causing widespread destruction. 

Reports were still just coming in as of dawn today, but the towns of Silver City and Rolling Fork were devastated. 

The disaster in Mississippi adds a new tragedy to a tornado year that has already been busy and threatens to be more destructive than average as we head into peak severe storm season during the mid and late spring. 

This tornado was the most dangerous you can get due to its size, timing, forward speed  and location.  

It was clearly a powerful, wide tornado that had a forward speed of roughly 70 mph. That speed is often too fast to keep ahead of warnings. It happened at night, when people are either sleeping, or can't seen visual cues that something dangerous is headed their way. '

It also hit a part of the nation with lots of mobile homes and substandard housing which are particularly prone to a tornado's destructive power. 

The 23 deaths - and possibly more - add to the nine deaths from other tornadoes earlier this year.  And we haven't even gotten to the peak months for tornado deaths in April, May and June. 

In all of last year, only 23 people died in twisters, so at least as many people died in Mississippi last night as in all of 2022. That's tragic, to put it mildly. 

Some experts fear that unusually warm Gulf of Mexico waters will contribute extra heat and moisture to storm systems this spring. That is one ingredient needed for tornadoes.

I'll have updates as warranted on this later today.  

The March Spring Thaw Is Both Ugly And Beautiful. In Video And Pics

The March melt and mud season in Vermont isn't the 
state's prettiest look, but it can have its quiet
anticipatory beauty. 

 March in Vermont this year is turning out the way it was when I was a kid decades ago

As we get into the closing week of the month, the snow cover is finally starting to lose the battle to spring. But only grudgingly.

Video of this year's March melt and mud is at the bottom of this post.  

 One day we have some strong sun that opens up more bare patches in the reflected sun's heat near the pine trees. The next day, rain washes some of the crusty old ice and snow away.  

It's an old fashioned year. Under our  climate change regime, we've gotten these weird, warm days in March which disappeared early in the month, and got the crocuses blooming way early - sometimes by St. Patrick's Day. 

Not this year. It actually feels a bit novel to have a throwback March like this. Though even this March is running somewhat warmer in Vermont than the long term average.  

This isn't the prettiest time of year. Old snow sort of half-heartedly glows under the overcast next to expanses of brown grass in open fields. Mud is everywhere. Along road sides, litter that has been buried in snow now glares at us with its own ugliness as we pass by in our mud-flecked and road salt encrusted cars. 

But this "ugly"  seasons is also hopeful, and in a strange way beautiful. On rainy days, the fog curls over remaining patches of snow, as if the damp south wind is trying to steam away the remaining ice. The melting snow and is cheered on by the calls of newly arrived red wind blackbirds. 

Garden plants have gotten used to getting an early start, thanks partly to climate change. This year, an odd, balmy January got daffodils, crocuses trying to come up in mid-January. Only to be denied in active. February and March snowfalls.

These daffodil shoots in St. Albans, Vermont aren't waiting
for the snow to melt to get on with the spring show. 

But the head start was already there, so these early perennials are in a premature schedule. It looks like they're saying, "Screw it. I know there's still a bunch of snow on the ground, but I'm coming on strong anyway."

 So daffodil shoots are popping up through the tops of fading snowbanks. 

Spring this year continues on in its uncertain fashion.  A new storm is probably going to give us a headache inducing mix of rain, ice and snow Saturday and Saturday night. 

Current forecasts don't indicate too much snow and ice accumulation in the valleys, but you never known. We could end up being tricked. Even if we don't. it'll slow down our spring melt a bit.  

There's also no spectacularly warm spring days in the immediate forecast. Eventually, real spring will come. But the tentative daffodil shoots, the mud and yes, even the roadside litter gives us hope that greener, warmer days are around the corner.   

Watch the video below to see what I mean by all this. It starts with a sunny phase of the thawing Wednesday, and moves on to the rainy phase on Thursday. Either click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that.

Factors Coming Together To (Possibly!) Create Nasty Tornado Season In the U.S.

Screenshot from a video showing a
tornado blasting through Montebello,
California Wednesday. It's already 
been a busy year for U.S. tornadoes,
and factors are coming together that
could make for many more twisters,

 A day after a (somewhat) rare tornado stirred up quite a bit of damage in a Los Angeles, California neighborhood, forecasters are eyeing an area in the southern Mississippi Valley that could see another round of destructive tornadoes today.   

These developments come as some factors are coming together to make the dawning core of the tornado season especially dangerous. More on that in a moment. 

The tornado that hit Montebello, California was a high-end EF-1 with top wind speeds of 110 mph. It injured one person, and damaged 17 buildings.  Eleven of those buildings had serious damage. 

It was the strongest tornado to strike the L.A. metro area in 40 years. 

Another tornado touched down in a mobile home park in Santa Barbara County, California.  

The storm that spawned the California twisters has pushed east now.   This is a rather unscientific comment, but I've noticed that most times when there's a tornado or two in California, a much more serious tornado outbreak flairs up in the Plains, South or Midwest. 

Which brings us to today. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there's a moderate risk of severe storms and tornadoes in an area surrounding the Mississippi River in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.  That's a level four out of five alert levels, or second highest risk ranking. 

As of 2:30 p.m. Friday, a tornado watch was already in effect for parts of far east Texas, Arkansas and Louisana,. This tornado threat will grow and spread east through the late afternoon and evening. 

BUSY TORNADO YEAR?

Long range forecasts extending into early April suggest a continued rather busy storm track from the southern Rockies and southern and central Plains, on into the Great Lakes and New England. 

Each storm could carry a tornado risk south of the parent storm track.  There's no way of knowing if that busy storm track will continue on toward the peak of tornado season in May 

On top of that, the Gulf of Mexico is much warmer than normal for this time of year. As the Washington Post reports, this could intensify the frequency and strength of tornadoes in the next couple of months or so. 

A crucial ingredient for tornadoes is very warm, humid air. Winds coming off the Gulf of Mexico would be warmer and carry more moisture if the water temperatures there are higher. So it stands to reason that this would contribute to a busy tornado season. 

Of course, tornadoes need a bunch of other ingredients, such as winds that veer and change speed with height, blasts of lingering cold air coming down from Canada, and punches of dry air coming in from northern Mexico and the Desert South west. 

If those and other factors don't happen this spring, then the bulk of tornado season in 2023 could end up being pretty mellow, despite the hot, wet breath of the the Gulf of Mexico. 

The Washington Post correctly points out that predicting tornado seasons is still not very easy.  Scientists are still having trouble figuring out months in advance whether a season would favor tornadoes or not. 

We do know the water in the Gulf of Mexico was toastier than normal all winter, and that was one contributor to an oddly busy winter for tornadoes. 

The U.S saw 168 tornadoes in January, the second most on record for that month. February saw 55 tornadoes, about double the average for the month. Tornadoes touched down in oddly northern areas for winter including Ohio and New Jersey. 

We have so far caught a bit of a break in March, with just 44 tornadoes reported through Wednesday, which is running a little behind normal. However, as noted above, the number of twisters this month seems poised to increase, perhaps dramatically. 

FLOODING?

By the way, all that hot, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico isn't only a tornado problem. It's a flood problem. At least potentially. 

The hotter and wetter the air, the more rain can be wrung out of the atmosphere as storms pass by. 

The storm expected to cause tornadoes tomorrow is also likely to unleash quite a bit of flooding in the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys today and especially tomorrow,  

That area has been getting a lot of rain all winter. On the bright side, that rain and snow has extended westward to the Mississippi Valley. Water levels were at near record, dangerous low levels last fall, but water levels have now recovered so there's no longer any problems with barge traffic. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

As we know, we don't see many tornadoes in Vermont. We average perhaps one a year, and the bulk of those occur in the summer, when the warm Gulf of Mexico doesn't matter as much. 

I suppose the warm Gulf could get us off to a somewhat early start with severe thunderstorms in late April or May, but that's just a guess. Flip a coin if you want the truthful answer

If the storm track across the nation remains busy, and most of the storms end up in New England, I suppose that could increase the flood threat somewhat over the next few months. 

Already, the year is running a little ahead of normal for precipitation. Burlington on Thursday just went a bit above normal for rain and melted snow for the entire month of March, and we still have eight days to go in the month. Another storm is expected to dump another third to a half inch of rain and melted snow and ice tomorrow and tomorrow night.  

The year 2011 was a landmark, extreme busy spring for both U.S. tornadoes and flooding here in Vermont. I can almost guarantee this year won't be anything like 2011 in Vermont. 

There's much less snow in the mountains to melt than there was at this time in 2011. March that year was much wetter than average. April and May, 2011 saw record high rainfall amounts in Vermont. I really doubt history will be repeated this year 

That said, Vermont is a flood-prone state. It wouldn't surprise me if we do see some flooding this spring as I noted the other day. It's just that the risk isn't all that extreme.