Monday Evening Update: Vermont Appears To Have Escaped Serious Flood Issues Today

After the first autumn cold front of the season passed
through St. Albans, we see an fall like scene of a fading
perennial garden, hints of color on leaves, and chilly
wet surroundings. 

 The line of torrential showers that passed slowly through Vermont this afternoon was crossing the Connecticut River into New Hampshire shortly before 6 p.m. today. 

The downpours left Vermont with a smattering of flood warnings, but so far, there have been no reports of serious issues.

The saving grace is the line of downpours never stalled. They kept moving eastward, slowly, but steadily. Rainfall rates in some spots were as much as two inches per hour, but the heaviest blasts of rain never lingered long over a particular area.

That prevented major issues. I'm sure we'll see reports from some towns of something like two inches of rain today. But that falls just short of flood weather. 

Flood warnings were issued for parts of the central Champlain Valley, near Springfield, and near Barre, which had to have shook up residents given their history of calamitous floods in recent years. 

There's still time for reports to come in, but it appears that there might have been minor washouts, ponding of water on roads in spots, and small streams and brooks getting loud and rambunctious. 

But unlike Connecticut yesterday, we ended up not having a new disaster. Not even close. 

The warm, humid air that has plagued us for days is gone, replaced by a decidedly autumnal feel. It's still raining in many areas, and that will continue for a few hours yet. But the rain isn't nearly heavy enough to set off any late breaking flooding. 

So, anybody with flooding PTSD in Vermont can relax. 

Typical of a strong autumn cold front (Yes, it's August, but this has all the hallmarks of something that would come through in mid to late September) gusty north winds are funneling down the Champlain Valley. 

If you're silly enough to be on a small boat over on Lake Champlain, it's rough out there. Probably a good idea to head to a marina and wait for nicer days. There's probably some two to four foot waves out there on the open lake this evening.  Gusts have reached as high as 38 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

We can expect more rain showers now into Thursday as a cold upper level low pressure system pretty much parks over us. It won't depart until later Thursday. 

So, we're faced with early October weather Tuesday, Wednesday and a good part of Thursday. That means partly to mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and highs only in the 60s, coolest tomorrow.

The clouds and breezes will keep overnight lows "warm" meaning upper 40s to mid 50s. Unlike daytime highs, those lows are only slightly cooler than normal for this time of year. 

It still looks like it will warm up this weekend. But like we've seen much of this month, with a series of upper level disturbances keeping us unsettled, there's hints that another upper level low might take up residence over us starting Sunday.

I'm still not sure that will happen, and to what extent. But if that upper low sets up over us, it will be a much warmer version than the one we'll have this week. Worst case scenario is near normal temperature for late August and scattered showers this coming Sunday through Tuesday. 

At this point, none of those day look like they'll be washouts. 

Intense Flash Flooding In Northeast, And Ontario, Some Vermont Flood Risk Today

Extreme flooding again, this time in Connecticut on
Sunday. Photo from WINY Radio via Facebook. 

 While we in Vermont were harassed by scattered, mostly light showers and overcast skies on Sunday, new outbreaks of intense flash flooding hit other areas not too far from the Green Mountain State. 

Parts of Connecticut were under a flash flood emergency when up to ten inches of rain deluged the southwest parts of the state in a matter of hours. That led to a disaster on par with what happened around St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville on July 30 when eight inches of rain fell in a few hours there. 

The flooding in western Connecticut Sunday was described as a one in a thousand year flood event, which means the chances of what happened yesterday in any given year is 0.1 percent. Of course, in the age of climate change, I think this percentage chance need to be altered.

Up to ten inches of rain fell in just a few hours. In some western Connecticut towns, up to six inches of rain fell in just three hours. 

Unfortunately, reports are two people were swept away in the Connecticut flooding but deaths had not been confirmed as of this morning.

As you'd expect damage is severe, with many roads washed out. Homes and businesses are trashed. The same story we've heard way too often this year.

Meanwhile, in Ontario, five inches of rain drenched Toronto Saturday, setting off new rounds of flooding in a summer that has already seen intense flooding in Ontario.  Once again, people had to be pulled from cars suddenly stranded in rapidly rising water. 

This will be Toronto's wettest summer on record, according to Environment Canada.   The wettest summer on record in Toronto was previously 15.6 inches of rain, but already this summer, they've had 18.73 inches and counting. 

Here we go again. Vermont under a slight
risk for flash flooding today. 

I'm struck by how frequently the floods have been in the Northeast and southeastern Canada this summer. Central and northern Vermont on July 11. Vermont's Northeast Kingdom on July 30.  Toronto, Canada on July 15 and August 17. Montreal on August 2. Now Connecticut.

MORE FLOODS?

Today brings one last day for awhile for some flood threats in New England, including here in Vermont. 

The cold front that promises to bring in that chilly air we've been advertising is set to come through today.  NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has upgraded us from a marginal to a slight risk of excessive rain and flash flooding across Vermont today.

That is level two out of four-point scale. 

These risks are always tricky to assess in advance.  Sometimes, the heavy rain moves right along and doesn't linger over one area, minimizing the flood threat. Other times, heavy downpours hit the same area over and over again, and you have a local flash flood.

Today is kind of a tossup, so we'll have to wait until this afternoon to see how everything behaves. 

We know the line of storms ahead of today's cold front will have some torrential downpours. It's just a question of whether they linger over a particular spot for a couple or few hours.  Especially if it lingers over the Green Mountains, that could cause trouble, as the rainwater would gush down the steep slopes and cause some flash flooding.  

If we get any flash flooding in Vermont today, it'll happen between 1 and 8 p.m., says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  Any flash flooding would take the form of washed out culverts, gravel roads and ditches, flooding of the type of small streams that rise quickly in heavy rains, and street flooding in urban areas. 

I don't think flash flooding today will be super widespread. Most of us should only get 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, which is manageable. But a few unlucky spots could get much more. 

The National Weather Service said this morning the ground is still so soggy that we can only handle 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in an hour before flash flooding would probably begin. Some towns that get hit by the heaviest downpours today could see that much rain in such a short time period. 

Seek higher ground very quickly if your area goes under flash flood warning.

We won't have to worry about flooding along main rivers like the Winooski, Lamoille, Missisquoi, Mad rivers and Otter Creek.  Those rivers will see sharp rises overnight, but won't go over their banks or cause anything scary or really damaging. 

I always hate to talk about flash flood risks because we Vermonters are so jumpy now when it comes to floods.  It's happened so much and so frequently, any forecast that mentions flooding probably triggers PTSD in more than a few people.

But, it will be over by this evening, so at least we don't have to sit and worry for very long.

COLD SNAP

As the chilly air pours in this evening, any Vermont flood risk will evaporate for the foreseeable future. The cold air in the atmosphere will probably trigger a fair number of rain showers Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly part of Thursday.  But all those showers will be light and pose absolutely no flood danger. 

After that, it should stay dry until at least next Sunday, or possibly even longer. 

 

Strong August Vermont Cool Spell Looms, But Back In The Day, It Would Have Been "Normal"

It's going to feel like autumn in Vermont this coming week,
though we'll definitely have to wait several more weeks at
least before we see fall foliage and snow
capped mountains like this. 

 Arguably the coolest August weather in quite a few years appears to be looming in Vermont for the upcoming week. 

It's looking like we'll have a couple days with highs just in the 60s, with maybe a couple upper 50s for highs in the coldest spots. Overnight lows during this spell, which will peak Tuesday and Wednesday, will fall into the 40s to maybe around 50 in the warmest spots.

That's quite a shocking change after the long, humid, almost tropical summer we've had here in the Green Mountain State. 

It's still hazy and humid out there this Sunday morning. Some light showers dampened things last night, and we have a chance of some scattered showers today. Not too big a deal. Though an isolated spot or two could see a very heavy downpour. 

Monday will be the transition day, as a wet cold front comes through. Most of us should see a good inch of rain by the time it winds down Monday night. 

We'll have to watch for locally heavy rain. It's possible some embedded thunderstorms could hit the same spot repeatedly, raising the (again!) risk of isolated flash flooding. It doesn't look like it will be a widespread problem, but it is something to watch in case things get out of control in one or two towns.

THE COLD SNAP

Forecasts have been trending colder and colder with the upcoming cool blast of air. It will really feel like we're well into autumn Tuesday and Wednesday. 

On both days, there's some questions as to how much cloudiness and showers will be around. Some forecasts have only widely scattered showers under partly sunny skies both days. If that happens, highs will reach the upper 60s for most of us, which is cool for the season, but not totally out of control.

Some forecasts call for lots of clouds and showers both days, which would hold high temperatures in the low 60s, with some upper 50s in the colder, higher elevation towns.  Stiff north winds would make it feel chillier.

Drag out those hoodies and blankets, folks!

I don't think anybody has to worry about frosty nights just yet, but the colder hollows could reach the upper 30s if skies clear enough during the nights.

It'll start to gradually warm up later in the week, and we should be back to normal temperatures (highs 75-82, lows in the 50s to near 60) by next weekend. 

OLD FASHIONED COLD

Nowadays, the type of chill that's in the forecast for this upcoming week is unusual for August. Climate change has made summers hotter, so a couple days of highs in the 60s this time of year has become unusual. 

Especially if you consider the top four hottest Augusts in Burlington have all occurred since just 2016.  

It never used to be that way a few decades ago.  A few days with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s used to happen virtually every August. The coldest high temperature on record for Tuesday in Burlington is 60 degrees, and for Wednesday that record coldest high is 58 degrees.  I strongly doubt we'll break those records. 

There's lots of examples of cold August weather in the past. 

In August 1965 and 1976, it got as cold as 35 degrees in Burlington, and widespread frosts damaged crops in other parts of Vermont.  Eight of the first 10 days of August 1964 got into the 40s in Burlington. On the weekend of August 21-22, 1982, skiers cut turns on three inches of fresh snow near the summit of Killington. 

So yes, it was a different type of late summer in Vermont a few decades ago. 

COLD TO HEAT?

The following is the most uncertain part of the forecast, but there's some evidence to suggest the cold high pressure from Canada this week will end up moving to our east and eventually merging with the Bermuda High. 

If the happens, and if no new cold fronts immediately emerge from Canada, the same weather system that is about to cause our big preview to autumn might also eventually bring in some late season heat. Stay tuned on that one.   

Hurricane Ernesto Ensures Start Of Hurricane Season Fairly Busy, But What's Next?

Hurricane Ernesto today as it began its departure
from Bermuda. 

Hurricane season so far is a bit quieter than the gangbuster predictions we saw earlier this year.

But it's still a busy one, especially since we've already had a few strong ones and it's only mid-August. and there's also plenty of time for the season to really, really ramp up. 

The current storm is Hurricane Ernesto, out in the Atlantic Ocean. 

Ernesto made landfall on west side of Bermuda at around 4:30 a.m. Saturday with top winds of about 85 mph.

It's a slow mover, so Bermuda was hit by hurricane force winds from Friday night well into today. A third of the island's electricity was out.  Bermuda is a rather wealthy nation with sturdy buildings, so not much structural damage is anticipated. 

Bermuda is often affected by hurricanes, but since it's such a small target, actual landfalls are relatively rare. It was reportedly the 12th landfalling hurricane on Bermuda since 1850. Of course, scores of other hurricanes whose eyes never touched the island still managed to unleash hurricane force winds there. 

Ernesto is something like 1,000 miles off the East Coast of the United States, but its effects are still being felt. 

In Rodanthe, on North Carolina's Outer Banks, an oceanfront house collapsed Friday evening into the Atlantic Ocean as swells and high tides from Ernesto hit the East Coast.

Seven houses in Rodanthe have collapsed into the ocean in the past four years due at least in part to sea level rise, climate change and storms. Two of the houses collapsed in May and were on the same block as the one that went Friday. 

According to The Island Free Press:

"Chicamacomico Fire and Rescue posted video of the house located at 23214 East Corbina Drive floating into the breakers Friday evening.

Dare County property records show the 1,428 square foot residence was built in 1973, and owned by a couple from Hershey, Pennsylvania. The total tax value of the property and structure was $356,400.

The house, which had been an active vacation rental until earlier this summer, was unoccupied at the time of the collapse. No injuries were reported."

Reports indicate prior storms earlier this summer weakened the house and its supports, making the building unsafe. That's why it was unoccupied on what was otherwise a lovely Cape Hatteras summer Friday evening. 

Elsewhere on the East Coast, beachgoers  from Atlantic Canada to Florida are advised to be wary of rip currents and high surf emanating from Ernesto.

This year was forecast to be a supercharged hurricane season.  There hasn't been a lot of storms at any given time so far. 

But this hurricane season has so far been somewhat busier than it looks.

One measure of hurricane activity is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE. It's a measurement that incorporates storm intensity and duration. 

Because Beryl, Debby and now Ernesto were powerful and lasted quite awhile, the ACE count so far this year is way above normal for this point in August. 

The ACE count for the Atlantic hurricane season as of August 15 is a bit under 50, compared to the normal of around 1

The fifth tropical storm of the year, the one that begins with "E" normally on average forms on August 22, so Ernesto was a little early.

The "F" storm, which will be Francine this year, on average forms on August 29. So we'll wait and see whether Francine forms by then or not.  

We're waiting and seeing because at the moment, after Ernesto, the folks at the National Hurricane doesn't see anything on the radar forming over the next five days at least. There's still a lot of dry air and some Saharan dust circulating over the tropical Atlantic, which is suppressing tropical storms for now. 

Even though forecasts for tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic look fairly minimal in the short term, it could really start popping at the end of this month and in September. By then, dry air is forecast to start moistening up. Ocean temperatures where hurricanes tend to develop are at near record highs. That's jet fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes.

Plus wind shear, which tends to rip apart wannabe tropical storms before they really can get going, typically declines over the tropical Atlantic in late August and September. 

No guarantees, but we might not have escaped a wild season just yet. Hell, it's been difficult to begin with. Hurricane Beryl caused damage from the Windward Islands to Texas to Atlantic Canada, including here in Vermont. 

Hurricane Debby trashed parts of Florida before causing serious flooding and wind damage in many parts of the eastern U.S. Debby is why we had such a nasty wind storm in Vermont last Friday.

Ernesto, before harassing Bermuda, caused damage in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Whether the rest of the season is busy or not, where hurricanes go is even more important than how many.  If big ones keep plowing into land, this could be a super expensive season. If we're fortunately and they keep curving out to sea, then we've obviously dodged a bunch of bullets. 

Upside Down Times: Canada Brings Pollution, Rust Belt Cleans Us Out

Smoke in the atmosphere made the sun cast a brassy hue
on Fairfield Swamp, Vermont Friday evening. 

 Back in the day of the dinosaurs - I'm talking 1960s and 1970s - a summer southwest wind would bring in warm air, sure, but also pollution from all those cars, industrial plants, manufacturing and what not further down the East Coast and from the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. 

You know, rust belt cities like Cleveland, Gary, Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh. 

We'd always look forward to those cold fronts from Canada that would sweep in, bringing fresh, pristine air from the Great White North. 

Pollution controls and climate change has turned those "good old days" backwards.

Now, in the summer, what used to be fresh Canadian north winds often bring wildfire smoke and air pollution alerts to us in Vermont. 

And thanks to the Clean Air Act, the air coming from the former Rust Belt and the East Coast is fresher than it used to be.

Today is a classic example of that backward pollution scenario.

A light northerly flow brought smoke and haze from Canada over the past few days. An air quality alert went into effect. 

Now, a south wind ahead of low pressure over the Great Lakes has started to drive the smoke back north, out of our hair.  It's still pretty hazy this morning, as it will take time for some of this smoke and haze to depart.

 But visibility should get a little better this afternoon. The air will be a bit easier to breathe, too. The air won't necessarily become crystal clear, but it is improving.  

The air quality alert that was in effect yesterday and last night has been allowed to expire. 

 With the better air quality comes the risk of showers, though the further east you go today and tomorrow,  the less chance you get.  The storm system in the Great Lakes, as we've advertised for days, is just barely crawling eastward, so it will take time to make it into New England. 

So, the rest of the weekend just has a chance of some showers, but it'll be dry most of the time. In eastern Vermont, it might not rain at all. Or if it does, it won't amount to much.

The rain will arrive in earnest Sunday night and especially Monday, when it could come down fairly hard in spot. The best guess is many of us will see a solid inch of rain. 

We're still looking at the strongest push of cool air since June by Tuesday on renewed north winds. I don't know yet if those north winds from Canada will blow more smoke into the Green Mountain State, or whether the cool push of air will tap into a cleaner source of air from elsewhere in the Great White North. 

July Was (Somewhat Surprisingly) The World's 14th Consecutive Record Hottest Month

Very few places on Earth cooler than the 20th century
average through July, 2024.

Data came out this week that shows July was the 14th consecutive month that was the hottest on record for Planet Earth. 

The hottest July ranking was a bit of a surprise among experts. El Nino, which tends to boost global temperatures on top of the warmth of climate change,  has ended.  Chances were, at least according to the experts who watch these things, that July, 2024 would "only" be the second or third hottest.

But nope!  July was the hottest.

There are signs that this long streak of record hot months are ending. Global sea surface temperatures were only the second warmest on record. That ends a 15-month streak in which sea temperatures were record hot. 

Despite continued record heat waves around the world, it's questionable as to whether August will turn out to be another hottest month. It could be close.

After all, climate change sure isn't ending. 

And the last few months of the year could well end up being just a smidge cooler than the final months of 2023. The National Centers for Environmental Information says there's a 77 percent chance that 2024 will be the hottest year on record for Earth. There's a 100 percent chance it will score in the top five, as you might expect.  

Just under 14 percent of the Earth's surface had a record hot month, which is pretty impressive.

Once again, it was hard to find places on Earth that were cooler than what was average in the 20th century. The only places I could find that were ever so slightly chilly were southern South America, a spot west of the Korean Peninsula, another tiny spot between Alaska and Russia, and a small area in the central United States.  

The trend toward warmer months started decades ago, thanks to the release of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels that have made the world all-too toasty. If you are under the age of 48, you have never seen a July on Earth that was at least a little cooler than the 20th century average. 

UNITED STATES

The western and eastern United States were very
hot in July, 2024, but the middle of the nation
caught a break. 

In the United States, July turned out to be just the 11th hottest on record. California and New Hampshire had their hottest July on record. Another 18 states, including Vermont had one of their top ten hottest Julys. 

And as I wrote the other day, many cities on the West Coast and some in the East also had a record hot July.  

But the areas in the middle of the nation were cooler, partly offsetting the overall warmth in the United States. 

Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana were actually a bit cooler than average. They got a break from what was widely expected to be a hot July in that region. 

DISASTERS

Weather and climate disasters costing at least $1 billion in the United States continue to pile up. Four more such calamities were added to the list. They include Hurricane Beryl in Texas (no word if subsequent floods in Vermont and elsewhere in the Northeast also made the cut); New Mexico wildfires in June and July, and hail storms centered in and around Colorado on May 31-June 1. 

We now have a total of 19 weather and climate disasters so far in 2024 that cost at least $1 billion. 

This type of mega-expensive disaster is getting more common. The average annual of inflation-adjusted yearly billion dollar disasters between 1980 and 2023 is 8.5.  The average number in the most recent five years, i.e. 2019 to 2023 was 20.4 such events, says the National Centers for Environmental Information. 

It's pretty much a lock, then, that 2024 will have an above average number of these calamities. We don't know yet if Hurricane Debby cost $1 billion. Or if the massive Park Fire in California or other big wildfires burning out there will also cost more than $1 billion. 

Plus, hurricane season is still very young. Hurricanes making landfall in the United States tend to cause a lot of damage. (The latest hurricane, Ernesto, caused damage in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but is expected to have little effect on mainland U.S.). 

Other than the western wildfires, there doesn't appear to be any mega-storms or climate disasters on the horizon in the United States for at least the next few days. But the way things are going, you never know.  

Air Quality Remains Iffy In Vermont, Weekend Rain Slower In Arriving

A very orange looking sun, made that way by wildfire
smoke in the air, hides behind our trees in St. Albans,
Vermont last evening. Air quality will remain
poor today because of all that smoke. 

 So far, we've gotten through our air quality alerts here in Vermont with just mediocre air. 

The air quality index was in the moderate range early this morning, which for the numbers people is between 50 and 100 on the scale.  

Once you get to 101, you start in with the "unhealthy of sensitive people," which is the point of the current air quality alert. That alert is in effect all day.  

Rutland was getting close to that threshold this morning, with an air quality number at 82.

The air will probably worsen a bit through the day as it often does during daylight hours when we have attack of wildfire smoke, from wherever it's coming from.  (For those who wonder, most of the smoke we're having now took a sort of circuitous route mostly from Alberta, Canada).

We'll have another day of brassy colored sunshine, dimmed by all the smoke in the atmosphere. It will be another sort of humid one.   Showers and storms tended to be pretty few and far between yesterday, at least here in in Vermont. They will be even fewer in numbers today, with almost all of us having no rain.

This state of affair will help boost temperatures well into the 80s, with some upper 80s in the warm spots. Which leads us to the weekend. 

WEEKEND SALVAGEABLE?

That sluggish storminess coming in from the Great Lakes is even more sluggish than first thought. At least here in Vermont, it's looking more and more likely most of us will escape with  no rain.  A few showers might develop, especially the further west you go. But many of us will stay dry. Those who do get any showers will only be in the rain for a short burst or short bursts.

Even Sunday now looks like it won't be a washout. Shower chances are better by then. But they will still be hit and miss. 

The weekend will remain on the humid side, and probably still kind of smoky and hazy. Not hard core Chamber of Commerce weather, but probably good enough.

HINT OF AUTUMN

About this time of year, we start seeing cold fronts that suggest that fall is right around the corner. Right on cue, it looks like that slow, slow system from the Great Lakes will swing a cold front through Monday. 

It's that time of year when you start to see tiny pockets of
fall color amid all the summer greenery in Vermont.
It will also briefly feel like autumn next week.

I have a feeling the front will feel like more an autumnal one.  Summer cold fronts usually give us bands and clusters of sometimes strong thunderstorms, but not usually a general soaking hours-long rain.  

Once we get into autumn, cold fronts start to give us full rainy days. At this point, it's beginning to look like Monday will be that type of day.  

It's a few days away, so things could still change, but Monday could well end up being a rainy "autumn" day. 

 It'll be cooler than it's been under the clouds and rain, but it will probably still feel a little humid, and temperatures should still make it into the 70s.

Behind the front on Tuesday, autumn will be in the air. Highs high not make it out of the 60s.  If that happens in Burlington, it will be the coolest day since June 15.  

I wouldn't exactly rush out to the garden and cover your stuff to ward off frost. It's only going to be vaguely cool. Not frigid. Upper 60s for highs aren't that weird for mid-August. Expected lows Tuesday night in the 45 to 55 degree range aren't odd either. The cool air will just seem out of whack because we've had such hot summers in recent years. 

Besides, it really is still summer, for sure. After the cool weather next Tuesday into early Wednesday, we'll get back into a warming trend.