Mother's Day Weekend: Not Bad, But Bring The Fleece

Mother's Day weekend last year, part of my perennial 
gardens in St. Albans looked like this - snowed on
and kinda frozen. But this year.....

 Every spring, my sisters and I like to pick a day to do yard clean up at my mother's house in West Rutland, Vermont.  

So we're going Sunday.  It will be a bit of an event for me. Even though my mother lives not far from me -  a two hour drive 

I have not seen her in person in more than a year. That's due to Covid. Didn't want to risk it, given she's 92 years old and has lung problems. 

But the whole family is now vaccinated against Covid, so we figure it's safe. (We interrupted this blog post for this PSA:  If you have not yet been vaccinated against Covid, do it!!! It's safe ad the Vermont Health Department is falling all over itself to make it super easy).

Anyway, many of you have Mother's Day plans, and this weekend in Vermont will be.....not bad. 

It'll be unlike last year's Mother's Day weekend, when it snowed during an otherwise relatively mild month. 

This year, it isn't going to snow, but her might be a few raindrops here and there. Not many, though. 

We're trapped in a southward dip in the jet stream, which usually means cool, showery weather.  We'll have the cool temperatures, but the timing and positioning of the weather disturbances within this dip in the jet stream suggests Mother's Day - and the weekend as a whole - will be mostly dry. '

....it's cool out there, but the same perennial garden as
above has recovered from those April snows, and is 
unaffected by a very light frost this morning. It's
also further along than it was at this point last year. 

A weakening disturbance could set off some scattered showers Saturday and Saturday night.  Any sunshine in the morning should get largely cut off by mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. 

Sunday should be chilly for this time of year, but certainly not frigid. That means highs in the 55-60 range instead of the normal mid-60s for this time of year. 

The sun will be in and out of the clouds. A few showers might pop up, especially mountains and north, but they should be both light and brief. 

We're stuck in a pretty long term chilly weather pattern, so don't expect any summer-like weather anytime soon.  We won't see any 70 degree temperatures again for awhile, that's for sure. 

Long range forecasts call for mostly cooler than normal weather through about May 20, if not beyond that. 

Climate: The "New Normal" Is (Mostly) Warmer Than The Old One

New average temperatures, based on newer data, have
gone up in most of the United States since the last update
a decade ago. The northern Plains have 
cooled off a bit, however. 

 Every decade, what is considered "normal" weather for all the weather stations in the United States get an update. 

The latest update just came through, and for almost everybody, normal is warmer than it used to be.

Normal is calculated by taking an average of what it's been like for the most recent 30-year period. Until this week, "normal" was the average for the period 1981 to 2010.  Now, it's the average of 1991 to 2020.

Climate change is of course in full swing, so these averages for most of us are toastier than they once were.   As the Washington Post reports:

"'We're really seeing the fingerprints of climate change in the new normals,' Michael Palecki, manager of NOAA's effort to update the climate normals said at an April news briefing. 'We're not trying to hide that. We're in fact reflecting that.'" 

TOASTIER UNITED STATES

The average temperature of the United States for a year is now 53.28 degrees. That's 1.7 degrees warmer than in the 1930s and approximates the pace of warming across the rest of the globe due to climate change. 

Most of the United States is warmer than it was under the new definition of normal announced this week. The areas seeing the biggest upward trend are the Southwest, southern and central Rockies, California, and the East Coast east of the Appalachians. 

The Southwest is also quite a bit drier than it used to be. The area was already pretty dry. The combination of higher temperatures and lower precipitation means the worsening droughts they have been suffering through will get even more extreme if these trends continue. 

The Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest are actually a bit cooler under the new averages, especially in the spring for some reason. Scientists are studying why.  It could be a wavier jet stream than in the past that is bringing more frequent cold shots. Increased snow cover or an increasing cloud cover might be holding temperatures down. 

Or it could be changes in farm practices. There's more corn and soybean growing in these areas than in the past. What is known as "corn sweat" - moisture being given off by these plants - the evaporates. The evaporation has a cooling effect. At least in the summer. 

The Northern Plains are also wetter than they once were. So is much of the East Coast. 

WHY THE UPDATE

Members of the World Meteorological Society are required to update their climate averages once per decade.

Not everyone likes these updates every decade.  I'm not a fan of them. People smarter than me, like many climatologists, aren't thrilled by the updates, either. 

Here's some reporting from the Associated Press on that matter:

"Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said he prefers a constant baseline such as 1951 to 1980, which is what NASA uses. Adjusting normal every 10  years 'perverts the meaning of 'normal and 'normalizes' away climate change' he said in an email.

North Carolina's state climatologist Kathie Dello said, 'It seems odd to still call them normals because 1991-2020 was anything but normal climate-wise." 

A (MOSTLY) WARMER VERMONT

Here in Vermont, Burlington's average temperature took a decided swing uphill. The normal annual mean temperature is now 47.6 degrees, up from 46 degrees under the old "normal."

Interestingly, Montpelier's average temperature is marginally down and it's now 42.6 degrees. It had been 43.3 degrees. 

Even more dramatic than the map above is this one,
which shows how much "normal" temperatures in 
the United States have increased since 1901 

Vermont is now a wetter place, too. This is also consistent with climate change, as experts have long said warmer air is more humid, especially in this parts of the country, leading to more potential precipitation. 

This is probably the more worrisome of the new averages. Individual rainfall events have been trending heavier, despite occasionally droughty spells like we've had the first part of this year and much of last year.

This wetter trend means we are becoming more prone to flooding in the Green Mountain State.

Burlington's annual precipitation average is now 37.53 inches, up from 36.82 inches. Montpelier's is up to 38.7 inches, against the old figure of 37.27 inches. 

Burlington is snowier, too. The average for a season is now 87 inches, up from 81.2 inches. I think epic snow years like the winters of `1994, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2019 really skewed the average. 

This discernible uptick in snowfall might also be related to climate change, believe it or not. Remember a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, which means more precipitation. It still very often gets cold enough to snow, so snowstorms are trending heavier. 

Digging deeper into the new averages, at least for Burlington, it seems every month is more or less equally warmer than the old data, with maybe the pace of warming in March and April a little slower.

Spring and early summer seemed to have gotten wetter the most, but mid to late summer has actually dried out a bit. November has gotten drier too.

There's probably not much rhyme or reason to those subtle changes. Probably natural variability mixed in with the climate change. 

With climate change continuing, all bets are the next update a decade from now will be even warmer than the new "normals" we have just been introduced to. 

Severe Storms Really Ramped Up This Week In South; Vermont Stays Chilly, Calm

In an image from the Homewood, Alabama fire department,
severe flooding strikes an apartment complex Tuesday.

April was a lucky month weather wise in the United States in at least one regard: There was a remarkable lack of tornadoes.  Unfortunately that changed in the first week of May.  

In April, on average, the United States sees 194 tornadoes. This year, only 73 April tornadoes touched down.   

The problem is May got off to a rough start with more twisters in the first four days of the month than all of April. There have been 75 tornadoes so far in May, according to preliminary data from NOAA.

The tornadoes, along with several hundred reports of straight line wind damage and extensive flash flooding, have left much of the southeastern quarter of the United States reeling this week. 

Three deaths have been blamed on this week's tornadoes. 

In yesterday's storms, straight line winds and flash flooding predominated.  There were six tornadoes reported in the nation Tuesday, but a whopping 472 reports of wind damage from thunderstorms

Flooding in some places really got out of hand. The National Weather Service declared a particularly dangerous situation in and around Birmingham, Alabama due to flash flooding.  

Rescuers had to use boats to get people out of a flooded apartment complex and many other people had to be retrieved from flooded cars on streets and highways.  

Severe weather and the threat of tornadoes looks like it will wane for the South, and the rest of the nation for that matter, for a few days.

May is typically a busy tornado month for the U.S., with an average number per year of around 270 of them. 

VERMONT STAYS CHILLY

We up in the North Country have stayed well north of the warm, humid air that helped set off all those severe storms and tornadoes this week. 

The flowers around my shed, and the greening up woods
behind it in St. Albans, Vermont get a drink of water
from the skies this morning. Chilly, often damp
weather is expected to continue for next several days.

For us, a dip in the jet stream has kept us generally cloudy and chilly, and that state of affairs will continue for probably another week or so. 

Of course there will be breaks of sun here and there over the next week, but we won't have days and days of sun like we tended to have in April. 

Despite the clouds, rainfall doesn't look like it will be all that heavy. Today started off rainy and it will pretty much stay that way all day.  We could get a half inch of rain. Decent, but nothing wild. 

Though we know it will stay cool,  determining the timing and intensity of any showers that come through after today is a bit challenging. There's lots of little disturbances within this big trough in the jet stream over the Northeast, so expect some changes in the forecast going forward.

At this point tomorrow looks dry except for some light showers early, especially in the mountains. It will be blustery and mostly cloudy and nippy, though.  We're at risk for some showers Friday and Saturday. Fingers crossed Sunday - Mother's Day -  looks pretty much rain-free at this point. At least it won't snow on Mother's Day weekend like it did last year. 

However, bring your mother a sweater or some fleece along with the flowers you're getting her:  It stays chilly through at least next Tuesday. 

National Weather Service Burlington Goes Full Star Wars

Screenshot of a brief video the National Weather Service
in South Burlington released to social media to honor
a big day for Star Wars fans.

 Today, May 4,  is a big day for Star Wars fans.  

"May the Fourth be with you."  Get it?

Some of the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont sure do. 

They went full on Star Wars with their forecasting this morning. Their social media output is like the opening of a Star Wars movie epic.  

The social media weather forecasts begin, "In the North Country far far away..." in the familiar movie graphics.

Weather geeks like me like to dive deep into the National Weather Service forecast discussion page to help understand the reasoning behind the weather forecasts. These discussions get into technical terms like "frontogenesis" and how helicity might impact a QLSC, that type of thing. 

This morning's forecast discussion of course gets mixed up with Star Wars.  

While contemplating the prospects for any sunshine on Thursday, they had this to say, mixing weather and Star Wars geekdom into high art of a sort: "Under increasing surface pressure and mid-level ridging, expected for Thursday a dry, though partly cloudy day is. With any luck, some sunshine we may see; but as Obi-Wan would say, 'In my experience, there is no such thing as luck.'" 

Well, yeah, this is Vermont. We often do not luck out with the weather.  

The discussion for the end of the week and weekend go on with this Star Wars-type language. It looks like the forecasting Star Wars stuff from NWS Burlington was the brainchild of meteorologist Nichole Hammond, so good on her! 

I'm glad Hammond and the other meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington often have a little fun with their forecasting today. It just makes them all the more approachable and human, and by extension, trustworthy.  

There's no dangerous weather in the Vermont forecast this week, so the Star Wars levity doesn't distract from any important messages. (When bonafide weather threats arise, the National Weather Service gets really serious, really fast).

So, May the fourth be with you to ward off any raindrops that come your way amid a showery forecast for today. 

Spring's Pace To Slow Down This Week, But Not Stop

Rain falling from clouds and evaporating before reaching
the ground was partly responsible for a spectacular
sunrise in Vermont this morning. 

We Vermonters are jaded enough with our often cold weather so that once the warmer season arrives, chilly still almost feels nice to us.  

It'll be kind of like that this upcoming week. High temperatures most days won't get out of the 50s. Such high temperatures seem nice enough, but we're far enough into spring that even that is cooler than normal.

Except for possibly tomorrow, highs aren't expected to reach as high as 60 degrees until sometimes after next Sunday. 

Normal afternoon temperatures around this time of year are in the low to mid 60s.  Record highs are in the 80s to around 90. We won't be seeing that anytime soon!

At least nights this week don't look frosty. Cloudiness will help keep low temperatures above the 32 degree danger zone. 

Though we will have almost daily chances of rain, it doesn't look like we'll get a huge amount of it. 

This morning's radar has a bark much worse than its bite.    It appears to show a band of persistent showers riding west to east across New York and Vermont.  The showers are encountering dry air, so some of it is evaporating as it hits the ground (The evaporating rain in the air helped create a gorgeous sunrise this morning).

It looks like some rain will come down tonight and tomorrow morning, the heaviest south. Even there, amounts will only be a quarter inch or so.  Up north, maybe a tenth of an inch.

Another disturbance rolls through Wednesday with perhaps another half inch of rain.  Forecast models indicate some sort of nor'easter Thursday night and Friday.  Most of the forecasts only give us light rain as the storm would be far enough east, and weak enough to not cause much trouble.  A couple models do show a stronger, closer storm, so we'll see.

The weather pattern after that looks active, but not extreme.  Generally cooler than average weather is probably going to last until at least the middle of the month. Not frigid, mind you. Fingers crossed, I think we're past that. 

On the bright side, since we're on the cool side of things, we're avoiding volatile springtime weather further south.  Several tornadoes touched down in Mississippi Sunday, causing widespread damage but thankfully no serious injuries. 

Today, wide areas of the South can expect severe thunderstorms packing destructive wind, large, damaging hail and some tornadoes. 

Report: Vermont Among U.S. Places With Cleanest Air

A blue sky day with very clean air in St. Albans, Vermont
last summer. Vermont had some of the least 
polluted air in the nation, according to a recent report
from the American Lung Association.

 Breathe free, my fellow Vermonters. 

The American Lung Association says that at least in 2020, the Burlington, Vermont metropolitan area was among the five cities with the least air pollution. 

This from a report  from the American Lung Association's annual national air quality report card called "State Of The Air."

The report looks at trends in air pollution nationally, and drills down to look at where pollution is at its worst, and where the air is relatively clean. 

The Association says it uses the most recent air pollution data compiled by the Environmental Protection Agency for the two most widespread types of pollution -- ozone and particle pollution.  Ozone is basically smog and particle pollution is basically tiny bits of soot floating around in the air. 

Data from air quality monitors is a big part of what goes into this report. 

The top five metro areas in the United States for clean air were listed alphabetically, not by rank. They are Burlington/South Burlington, Vermont, Charlottesville, Virginia, Elmira/Corning, New York, Honolulu, Hawaii and Wilmington, North Carolina. 

My guess is Vermont is lightly populated, so there's not a lot of cars and factories to belch stuff into the air. The wind often comes from the direction of Hudson Bay or thereabouts, and the air up in central Canada tends to be clean.  And Vermont generally has pretty good pollution regulations. 

That's not to say we don't have pollution.  Especially in the winter, particulates get stuck under inversions in valleys, causing some bouts of bad air. 

According to State of the Air, most of the worst cities for ozone and particulate pollution were in California. 

Some other takeaways from the report:

More than 40 percent of Americans or over 135 million people live in places with unhealthy levels of ozone or particle pollution.

People of color are more than three times as likely as others to be living in places with polluted air. 

One bit of good news is 14.8 million people lived in areas with heavy air pollution in 2020 than the year before. Most of that was due to a decrease in ozone pollution. My speculation is that the pandemic caused less driving due to all those lockdowns. Vehicles cause the bulk of ozone pollution so this makes sense to me. 

More info from the report:

"Los Angeles remains the city with the worst ozone pollution in the nation, as it has for all but one of the 22 years tracked by the "State of the Air" report.  Fairbanks, Alaska earned the unfortunate distinction of being the metropolitan area with the worst short-term particle pollution for the first time. And Bakersfield, California returned to the most polluted slot for year-round particle pollution for the second year in a row."

Now that the economy is recovering, and the pandemic will hopefully wane later this year, I'm guessing there will be a lot more vehicle traffic on the roads.  That will probably increase ozone pollution this year. 

I also wonder if wildfire smoke has increased particulate pollution in recent years.  There's an intensifying drought in much of the West, which experts say could well lead to a very bad wildfire season this summer and fall.

Time will tell. 

 

April Summary: A Little Bit Of Everything, But Needed Moisture; May Starts A Bit Off Too

A bit of a dusting of snow on some garden plants in 
St. Albans, Vermont this morning to greet the 
month of May. 

 As expected some places in Vermont woke up to a little snow on the ground this morning to meet the month of May. 

It wasn't quite as extensive as I feared. There was no snow on the ground at dawn today in Burlington, but they did have a few snow flurries. 

Here in St. Albans, nothing on the ground, at least when I first woke up. A snow shower shortly after 6 a.m. deposited a dusting of snow, though that quickly melted. 

They had to close Route 108 through Smuggler's Notch again this morning due to snow.  There was a report of 1.5 inches of new snow this morning from Shrewsbury, Vermont. 

A traffic cam at high elevation Route 17 in Buel's Gore early this morning showed a good one to two inches of new snow on the ground.  In southern Vermont, an area along Route 9 in Searsburg showed about an inch of snow.

Route 302 Topsham, Route 4 near the top of Mendon Mountain, Interstate 91 in Sheffield, among others, showed dustings of May snow as well. 

The odd antics of the first morning of May continue the topsy-turvy weather we dealt with in April.  It was dry, it was wet, it was wintry, it was summer-like. We really had a bit of everything, except tornadoes. We go through that back in March. 

If you average April all out, it was somewhat warmer than normal, and - Glory Be! - somewhat on the wet side.  Drought lingered, though starting on the 15th, welcome rains began to arrive. 

The month of April opened with lots of sunny, dry weather,
prompting more early flower blooms than usual. 

The first two weeks of the month put us on a pace that would have brought us one of Vermont's warmest and driest Aprils on record.  Temperatures by the 14th were running more than eight degrees warmer than average.  The maple sugaring season ended abruptly, and much sooner than we'd expect as result.

Only about a quarter inch of precipitation had fallen on Burlington through April 14, against an average about 1.4 inches for those two weeks.

The dry conditions by April 14 were getting scary.   Early season Vermont gardens were dust bowls. Wildfire concerns were rising. With precipitation deficits piling up since last spring, ,the Green Mountain State was looking at the risk of a severe summer drought in 2021.

Then the weather pattern changed. It turned a bit cooler, and much wetter.  The rainfall wasn't all that extreme, but at least we were getting something.  The drought is by no means over, but at least we gained a little ground, especially with soaking rains on the final three days of the month.

Overall, rainfall in Vermont during April was around an inch above normal, thanks to the late month soakers.  

This being Vermont, there had to be a priced paid for this moisture.  And there was.  It seems like every storm that came along just HAD to bring snow along with the rain.  In the end, the snow didn't cause all that much damage, but it was disheartening. 

We had snowfalls on April 1, April 16, and April 21-22, along with at least some snow showers on April 26 and of course, this morning, May 1. 

The April 16 and 21 snows were especially impressive, given the time of year. The April 16 storm dumped as 10 to 11 inches of snow on towns like Winhall, Ludlow, Shrewsbury, Bridgewater and Mount Holly.  

A daffodil in St. Albans, Vermont collapses and freezes
amid several inches of snow, subfreezing air and strong
northwest winds April 22.  This flower death was an
an exception. About 80 percent of the daffodils and
other flowers that were blooming before the snow 
and freeze recovered once temperatures warmed up. 

The April 21-22 was a bit of a surprise with eight inches in some towns, and three to five inches all the way down into the Champlain Valley.  Heavy snow squalls on April 22 rivaled the worst ones we get in the middle of the winter, and cold winds held temperatures below freezing in some areas most of the day 

Yet, two days later, it was 70 degrees.  

April is a notoriously fickle month in Vermont, so what happened this year with the weather I guess is something we should have expected.

May in Vermont can and usually does have its extremes. Just look at last May, when we had a snowy Mother's Day weekend, followed late in the month by the hottest May temperature on record in Burlington. 

I don't know whether this May will be that off the rails or not, we'll see.  In general, forecasts seem to indicate the first half of this May will feature generally cool and showery weather.  That's good if we want to keep whacking away at any lingering dryness out there, bad if you crave a lot of sunshine. 

And, I'm sure there will be a few surprises along the way.