Tornado Toll From Friday Got Much Worse, And We're Going To Do It Again

Areas in orange and especially red are most at risk for
another round of tornadoes tomorrow. If this map looks
familiar, it's because the forecast map ahead of 
last Friday's tornado outbreak was almost identical to this one.

Saturday morning, I was vaguely relieved that there had "only" been nine deaths associated with a widespread tornado outbreak on Friday. 

I should not have been so smug.

At last check, 32 people died in the Friday tornadoes, which is worse than the death toll from twisters exactly a week earlier. This toll includes another person died in a Delaware tornado on Saturday. 

The deaths back on March 24 were focused on Mississippi, where dangerous night time tornadoes blasted a handful of relatively rural towns. 

 I think so many people died March 24 at least in part because the tornadoes came through at night, when people aren't as aware of the danger. 

Not only was the death count worse than a week early, this past Friday's tornadoes covered a far, far more widespread area.   

By my count, more than 100 preliminary reports of tornadoes came in from at least a dozen states. It was one of the most widespread outbreaks I've seen in recent years. It stretched from Arkansas to Georgia and from Iowa to New Jersey and Delaware.

This time, the death toll was high because there were so many tornadoes. With that many twisters - some of them unusually violent - spinning in so many different places, it's inevitable there would be casualties no matter how good the warnings. 

As the Associated Press reports, the most concentrated deaths were east of Memphis where nine people died in yes, a tornado that struck after dark. Overall in Tennessee, 15 people died in this outbreak, so Tennessee was the worst hit in this one. 

So far this year, 63 Americans have died in tornadoes. The average annual number of deaths from twisters is 80, so we're already pretty close.  The absolute peak of tornado season doesn't hit until late April through early June, so we've got a long way to go. 

A new, thankfully lesser and smaller severe storm outbreak hit northern Texas Sunday. I'm not yet sure if any tornadoes touched down, but there were several reports of damaging winds and large hail.  Airports around Dallas declared ground stops as the storms rolled through. I'm also not aware of any deaths or serious injuries in Texas last night. 

NEXT UP. 

Now, unfortunately, it's rinse and repeat. A storm that appears as if it will be remarkably similar to Friday's is looming for the Midwest and South tomorrow. Forecast maps show the exact same areas that were under the highest risk Friday are again at the greatest peril from this new storm. 

The strongest tornadoes at this point seem poised to hit eastern Iowa, western Illinois and northeastern Missouri which were hit hard last Friday. 

Arkansas looks like another target.  This after neighborhoods on the west and north side of Little Rock were devastated by a large tornado on Friday. 

In Arkansas, one person died in North Little Rock. About 50 people in the Little Rock metro area were injured and the city said 2, 648 structures were damaged or destroyed. The supercell that produced the Little Rock tornado dropped another twister on the city of Wynne, Arkansas, causing an additional four fatalities. 

I'm sure people in Arkansas are praying there won't be a repeat.

Much like on Saturday, this storm could produce severe weather in Ohio, Pennsylvania and western New York on Wednesday,

This same storm system is also going to create another blizzard in the northern Plains. 

One glimmer of hope is that after this next storm, things are forecast to settle down for awhile. The weather pattern is changing, at least temporarily, to one that will produce little severe weather and a rather low chance of tornadoes in the U.S. for at least a week, beginning Thursday. 

This was kind of a morbid post, but sometimes reality sucks. Maybe tornado season is getting is energy out early and the rest of it will be more mild?  Time will tell.

 

Wild Satellite Photo Shows A Odd, Sometime Violent Weather Day In The Northeast

Satellite photo of the Northeast taken after 1 pm 
Saturday features a dry slot and a squall line, among
other things. Click on the photo to make it bigger
and easier to pick out features.

 It really did turn out to be a Dug Nap kind of weird weather day Saturday here in Vermont, as expected. 

Things were pretty weird and wild throughout the Northeast for that matter. The satellite photos help tell the story. 

The first visible satellite image in this post was taken shortly after 1 p.m. Saturday. Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see the features. 

Up here in Vermont, you see clouds to our east, which was the cold, rainy spell we had in the morning. As you can see, skies had abruptly cleared after that and temperatures shot upwards.

The mostly clear skies were something called a dry slot.  The center of the big storm was over the Great Lakes, and you can see some of its clouds in the far left of the photo.

The storm was strong enough to pull a plume of warm, dry air up from the southwest into its circulation, and that tongue of spring-like air reached us here in Vermont. Temperatures got as high as 68 in Burlington, and 69 in Bennington, the warmest weather since mid-November. 

The dull patchy white you see in the photo in the Adirondacks and east of Vermont's Champlain Valley is the still-reasonably deep snow cover lingering. 

You can also see trouble brewing in this satellite photo. Above the warm layer of air, the storm was cooling the upper atmosphere. The contrast was making the air unstable.  The result was that patch of bright white clouds over western New York and central Pennsylvania.  That was a squall line of thunderstorms,. It was causing a lot of damage when the satellite photo was taken. 

SQUALL LINE ADVANCES

Satellite photo around 6 p.m. Saturday. A nasty squall
line of thunderstorms and possible tornadoes is
 seen approaching New Jersey and Delaware. Up here
in Vermont, just a smattering of tame showers,. 

The second satellite photo in this post was taken at around 6 p.m. Saturday. Again, click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see. 

That collection of severe thunderstorms that was in Pennsylvania in this photo is now a squall line extending from south of Albany, New York to western Virginia. 

If you look close, you can see individual thunderstorms in that line. A lot of them had supercell characteristics, many were rotating and some had at least the potential to produce tornadoes. Several tornado warnings popped up as this line passed through, especially in New Jersey and Delaware. 

So far, the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, New Jersey has confirmed four tornadoes in New Jersey and one in Bridgeville, Delaware. It's possible more might be confirmed.

The Bridgeville tornado claimed one life.  As you can imagine, it's very rare to have a tornado tragedy like that in the Mid-Atlantic states at the end of March. 

 New Jersey has now already had five tornadoes this year, including one in February. New Jersey doesn't have that many tornadoes, and when they do, it's almost always between May and September,    

A whopping 248 reports of thunderstorm wind damage came in yesterday, mostly in Ohio, western New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware 

Up here in Vermont, things weren't nearly as dramatic. Some fairly hefty thunderstorms passed through far southern parts of the state, but no real damage was done. 

If you look closely at the satellite pic, you see some bubbly little clouds scattered around Vermont. Those were convective showers, touched off by more modest instability than further south. 

After the cold front came through in the evening, Vermont abruptly lost its brief taste of spring. Light rain showers sprang up, and changed to snow flurries in a few places. Burlington went from 61 degrees at 7 p.m. to 50 at 8 p.m. then down to 39 by midnight. 

Today's weather, though bright, was typical of the first half of March. But don't worry, it's April. We're not guaranteed super warm weather, but it'll be at least reasonable through this week.

On Paper, Vermont March Weather Was "Normal". But It Was Weird

Vermont experienced one of its most even-tempered Marches on 
record this year, a huge mid-month snowstorm 
notwithstanding. Here, a pleasant sunset in
St. Albans, Vermont on March 9

 Given all the weather going on all over the place Saturday, I didn't get a chance to review the previous month's weather on the first of the month, like I usually do.

So, today, it's time to delve in March. 

It was a simultaneously sort of average and a really strange month. 

The basic numbers tell a "normal" story. 

In Burlington, the average temperature for March was 33.2 degrees, just a little under a degree warmer than normal.  

Of course, as I always remind  you, this is the "new" normal, based on the average of the past 30 years. The past 30  years were warmer than the overall 20th century average.

Precipitation in Burlington was 2.7 inches, which is on the wet side by 0.86 inches. Snowfall was above normal, too, with 22.9 inches. That's 5.4 inches above normal.

None of these figures from March, 2023 came close to breaking any record. 

Dig deeper, though, and the numbers begin to look wonky. 

WARMISH NIGHTS, COOL DAYS

Completed dig out on March 15 in St. Albans, Vermont
after a foot of heavy, wet snow. 

If it didn't seem like a warm-ish March to you, like the basic numbers indicate,  you can be forgiven.  Daytime highs were near normal, or even a little on the cool side.

Daily low temperatures, which mostly happened when you were probably sleeping, were well above normal.  

For instance, the average high temperature in Burlington in March, 2023 was 40 degrees, which was almost a degree cooler than normal. The average low was 26.3 degrees, which was 2.7 degrees above normal. 

You could see this trend across Vermont. In Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and Bennington, high temperatures this March were right about normal. Low temperatures were quite a bit on the warm side, somewhere close to three degrees above average.

STRANGELY EVEN-TEMPERED

The other thing that made March, 2023 weird was its temperance. March is usually the wildest month of the year, with all kinds of abrupt swings from deep winter cold to late spring warmth and back to winter again. 

Oh, sure, March had a couple snowstorms to make things interesting. But as far as temperatures go, the goofy, capricious personality of March was missing in 2023.

Thawing creates patterns in the snow cover on March 18

The warmest it got in Burlington this March was 52 degrees, and the lowest 15 degrees. That's only a spread of 37 degrees. 

We occasionally have single days in March with that range. Heck, just yesterday, April 1, the spread between high and low temperature was 33 degrees, which was pretty close to the entire month of March. 

 I looked back through Burlington's weather records to at least 1930, and I found only one March - 1956 - that had a smaller range between high and low temperature than this year.

 In 1956, the range was 35 degrees. By contrast, 1938 had a high of 73 and a low of minus 24 for an incredible range of 97 degrees! 

BAD FORECAST

March helped prove why I don't love long range forecasts. In late February, much was made about something called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming would lead to a frigid, wintry March.  That didn't happen. 

Yes, we had some extra snow, including an immense winter storm on March 14-15 that dumped up to 40 inches of snow on southern Vermont and caused widespread power outages. But the frigid month certainly didn't come to pass. 

Spring will not be denied! Daffodil shoots poke
up through the snow on March 23.

One good contrast I'm seeing this year to many recent springs is we're heading into the growing season with enough moisture around. March precipitation was above normal. Not by much, but good enough. Groundwater levels seem good, and there was plenty of snow to melt into the soil.

Drought could always develop, of course, but right now, we're in great shape for spring planting. 

As much as I hate long range forecasts, we can look ahead to this April's weather, and conclude.....not much. 

April is almost as unpredictable as March.  It's beginning to look like this month will be in character.  Expect warm days, cold days, or cold weather and warm weather in the same day. 

Snowfall in April can range from a trace to a foot and a half or more. So far, little snow is in the forecast. But for the past two years, we've had snowstorms in the third week of April.  I'm kind of hoping we don't have a three-peat. 

But we're into spring now. Those little hints of green you're starting to see in sunny areas protected from the wind and cold are going to spread a LOT during this month. It'll be lovely. 

Tornado Update: At Least Nine Dead, Dozens Injured In Big Tornado Outbreak

Severe damage from a tornado Friday in Wynne, Arkansas.
Photo by Ray Sharp, via Facebook and CNN

 The death toll from swarms of tornadoes and intense thunderstorms on Friday is at least nine with dozens injured.

The storms caused damage even more widespread than the tornadoes that afflicted Mississippi last week.  

Nine or more deaths is of course terrible news, but the fact that it wasn't worse is a blessing. 

One factor that probably reduced the death toll was the dire tone of the alerts and warnings issued on Friday. A rare "high risk" alert for tornadoes was issued in parts of the South and Midwest.  As the tornadoes developed, it became clear that some of them, as forecast were quite strong and long lasting. 

Warnings for the tornadoes carried "particularly dangerous situation" alerts which tends to wake up people to the danger even more. 

Another, probably somewhat lesser factor in the could-have-been-worse death toll is many of the tornadoes happened during the day.  Even though we're told not to wait for visual cues when a tornado warning is issued, humans are humans. We instinctive need that jolt to take cover when we see that menacing funnel bearing down on us. 

It appears some of the worst damage was around Little Rock Arkansas and points north and east of there.  The report of 600 injured around Little Rock that I saw turned out to be an exaggeration, but dozens of people were sent to hospitals with tornado injuries in the Little Rock metro area. 

The same supercell thunderstorm that unleashed the tornado in the Little Rock area dropped another powerful twister well to the northeast on the city of Wynne, Arkansas. Two deaths were reported there, along with extensive damage to the community. 

Several tornadoes later roamed the area around Memphis, Tennessee, causing more widespread damage. The twisters avoided the center of Memphis, and instead struck its northern and southern suburbs. 

AccuWeather reported two additional deaths from a likely tornado or tornadoes in Sullivan, Indiana. Widespread damage was also reported in this region, as you might expect. 

In Belvidere, Illinois, a tornado or intense thunderstorm caused much of the roof of the Apollo Theater to collapse during a concert. One of the 260 people inside died and 28 others were injured. 

In Iowa, several large tornadoes roared across the flat landscape. One of the tornadoes caused a lot of damage in Coralville, Iowa, according to the Des Moines Register.

Luckily, though, many of the largest tornadoes threaded the needle and just missed larger Iowa cities such as Ottawa, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Marshalltown and Waterloo. 

Overall, there were 65 preliminary reports of tornadoes in the U.S. on Friday. The number will change as National Weather Service investigators probe the damage swaths. 

Today, the tornado threat is less, but a few twisters could pop up in the Northeast, especially around New Jersey, Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania. 

Signs are pointing toward another possible big tornado and severe weather outbreak early next week in the Midwest and South. 

After that, the weather pattern seems to want to calm down, at least temporarily, so there might be a week or so starting about Wednesday or Thursday in which there won't be many tornadoes, hailstorms or severe thunderstorms. This being April, though, you never know. 

Vermont Update: Yesterday's Extra Snow Melts Away To Warmth, Maybe Few Strong T-Storms?

Vermont Agency of Transportation Web cam along 
Interstate 89 in Brookfield looked like mid-winter
at dawn today after yesterday's heavier than anticipated
snow. That snow should melt fast in mild weather today. 

 We got an early April Fool's Day "gift" on Friday as snow once again over-performed in Vermont. 

What had been forecast to be a brief, light interlude of wet snow before changing to rain ended up being more than that. 

Most of us got some snow accumulation, and some places went right back into winter. Some of the deeper snow reports are 4.1 inches in Bradford, 4 inches in Brookfield, and 2.8 inches in Greensboro. 

Even the Champlain Valley had some unexpected accumulation with one inch in Charlotte and 0.8 inches in both Burlington and St. Albans. 

A fairly brief but soaking rain was beginning to wash that snow away as dawn broke today. The rain was a warm front that is heading through the region. We'll only see a few hours of this cold rain. Then, as advertised, we get a brief squirt of nice, warm air. 

Sun will break through the clouds for most of us, and temperatures will soar into the 50s to low 60s.  That'll be a welcome change from yesterday, won't it?

In the unstable air in that patch of warm weather we'll experience today, it still looks like some showers and thunderstorms will blossom. 

The best chance is in the southern half of Vermont. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk there to "slight" level two out of five alert levels. That means we could end up with scattered reports of wind damage from some of the strongest storms. 

A little further to the south, in southern New York, New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, there's actually a low but real chance of a tornado or two today.

Back in Vermont, showers and storms will tend to be more scattered and weaker in the north.   There's a minimal, at most, chance of any really gusty thunderstorm up there. 

There's actually a slight chance of severe thunderstorms
in much of the Northeast, including southern Vermont
today, which is an early sign of spring. 

This is kind of early in the season to have any kind of severe thunderstorm threat in Vermont. Not unprecedented, but it's definitely before we see this sort of thing. 

The snow melt, and the rain, and the scattered showers and storms will produce enough runoff to raise river levels. But if there's any flooding between now and Sunday morning, it will be pretty minor. 

Just don't be stupid enough to drive your car into any low lying roads that get covered by water in this wet spring episode. 

If you like today's short visit by the forces of spring, don't get used to it.  That sharp cold front will come through tonight, and by morning it will be far below freezing. Probably in the low 20s

The sun will come out on Sunday, but most of us will see daytime highs struggle to reach the 30s.  Some colder spots might not even get above freezing.

At least temperatures will warm back up to kind of average readings, or maybe even a tad above that. The expected highs in the 50s for most of us Monday through Thursday isn't so bad for this time of year. 

Tornado Outbreak Is, Sadly Very Bad, And It Isn't Over

Image from television station KATV shows a large,
destructive tornado today in the Little Rock, Arkansas area.

Just a quick evening update on the tornado situation in the Midwest and South. 

We're probably not even halfway done with this tornado outbreak as of 6 p.m. eastern time and already the news is bad. And it will get worse. 

So far, the worse news is from the Little Rock, Arkansas, area. The west and north side of the metro area was hit hard by a large tornado this afternoon.

Details are still sketchy, but there are reports of at least 600 injuries, and not enough ambulances to transport victims.  in Local hospitals declared a mass casualty event. Video emerging from Little Rock show badly damaged or destroyed houses and cars tossed about on highways. Commercial buildings appear to have also suffered a lot of damage.

More tornadoes remain across much of Arkansas. Little Rock might be hit again, as supercells with possible tornadoes look like they might be headed toward the southeastern side of Little Rock. 

Meanwhile, at least one large, long lasting tornado was marauding through Iowa. Video from Iowa shows a massive tornado chugging through farm country. At last report, the huge tornado was just west of Iowa City.  It appeared that Cedar Rapids could be endangered by this twister a little later on. 

Tornadoes, some violent and long-lasting, are forecast to last well into the evening in a broad area of the Midwest and South. 

Meanwhile, back here in Vermont, it snowed today. But they have increased the threat of severe thunderstorms. As of this morning, only a low, low marginal risk of severe storms was up for southern Vermont. It was level one on a five point alert scale.

Now, southern Vermont is  under a "slight" risk of severe storms, which is level 2 on the five point scale. The marginal risk has been extended north to just south of the Canadian border. There's also now a very, very low, but not zero chance of a tornado in a narrow band, from the Vermont/New Hampshire border near Brattleboro, through southwestern New England, the New York City area and on into New Jersey.

I'll have a much bigger update tomorrow.

After A (Mostly) Steady State March, Vermont Is In For Dug Nap-Style Weather Roller Coaster

The scene in one of my perennial gardens today fits the
highly changeable weather we'll have the next couple
of days. Note the snowbanks AND the tender
green spring shoots coming up.

 We in Vermont are now in a weather pattern in which pretty much anything could happen, and probably will. So buckle up! 

On the very bright side, there's nothing super destructive or dangerous in our forecast, in contrast to the tornadoes, severe weather, winter storms and floods forecast for much of the nation's midsection today.

We'll still need to stay on our toes, though..

Those snow squalls Wednesday night pretty much behaved as expected. They were spotty, but where they hit, you had these brief blizzards of zero visibility and strong gusty winds. 

When it came through St. Albans, we didn't really get much snow, but the roar of the wind in the darkness was pretty impressive.  We also saw a couple lightning flashes to our west, and later, more lightning was reported near Jay Peak. 

After a chilly but bright Thursday, more changes are coming along, fast and furiously. 

Today will cloud up pretty fast, if it isn't already overcast where you are. An approaching warm front today will ironically not cause warm weather. 

Instead, rain or snow will break out. Even in the valleys, any initial rain will change to snow as the precipitation helps cool the atmosphere, at least temporarily. The snow, maybe mixed with rain in the warmer valleys will continue into the evening. 

Most places should only get a slushy coating to maybe an inch or two in the high spots.  The peak of this will hit during the evening commute, but main roads should stay in pretty good shape. Some back roads, especially in higher elevations, might get a little iffy.

Overnight we'll have drizzle and fog and maybe a little freezing drizzle in the cold spots. Again, annoying, but not the end of the world. 

SATURDAY SURPRISES?

Saturday - April Fool's Day - will fittingly bring us pretty much all kinds of possible weather. It'll pretty much be like that Dug Nap artwork with a forecast of some pretty wild weather changes. 

It won't turn out to be as extreme as in Dug Nap's imagination, but the weather on Saturday will seem to change every hour. 

 A burst of rain should come through Saturday mornin amid raw temperatures in the low 40s.

 Then the sun might actually peek through the clouds for awhile, and temperatures should rocket upward. Warmer valleys, especially west of the Green Mountains, should make it into the low 60s. If that happens, it'll be the warmest since mid-November.  A sign of spring, finally. 

There's actually a marginal risk of
severe storms in parts of Vermont
tomorrow. Sign of spring?

The "problem" with the warm temperatures is that will help make the air unstable. This could set off some showers and thunderstorms. Again springlike.   Another sign of spring is that for the first time this year, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has parts of Vermont in a risk zone for severe thunderstorms. 

Before you panic, it's the lowest level one risk out of five risk categories. That means there might - maybe - be one or two instances of damaging wind gusts in the most vigorous thunderstorms. This would be mostly south of Route 2. Although there might be a rumble or two of thunder further north. 

Then we get a sharp cold front. Temperatures will tumble down to within a few degrees of 20 late Saturday night as rain showers change to snow showers. Fortunately, we won't have much accumulation. 

But during Saturday night and Sunday morning, after all those bursts of rain and the mild weather on Saturday afternoon, we'll probably have some minor flooding. 

 Luckily, this storm won't be powerful for us, anyway, to touch off anything major. But you'll see fields under water, probably. And the low lying roads that usually get flooded in the spring probably will in this go around, too.

The yo-yo weather continues into next week, at least. It'll be a very chilly day for early April on Sunday, with highs barely making into the 30s.  But we'll have a nice rebound to 50 or above next week. But there's a lot of questions as to how warm it will get and how long it will last. Plus, we'll have other fitful bursts of rain to contend with, too.