Potpourri: NH Tornado, Decent Rains, Quick Heat Squirt

Tornado path in Charlestown, New Hampshire. Click
on the pic to make it bigger and easier to see.

Let's do some odds and ends today to catch our breath after several days of interesting weather

And more possibly interesting things to come. So here we go:  

NEW HAMPSHIRE TORNADO

To absolutely nobody's surprise, the National Weather Service office in Gray, Maine, confirmed a tornado on Monday in Charlestown and Claremont, New Hampshire 

That was the tornado I talked about yesterday that was caught on a truck dash cam. 

The National Weather Service said the tornado was an EF-1 with top winds of 90 mph.

It traveled 4.8 miles and had a maximum width of about 330 yards. It lasted only six minutes, touching down at 6:22 p.m. Monday. In that short time, it snapped or uprooted about 1,000 trees.  It looks like the tornado missed buildings, which is nice. A few houses suffered a little damage from falling trees in the area, but it's unclear if that damage was from the tornado or straight line winds.

The tornado did close Route 12 in Charlestown for several hours so crews could clear fallen trees and replace about 20 utility poles wrecked by the twister, says WMUR. 

The damage track traced by the National Weather Service/Gray confirmed the tornado stayed a little east of the Connecticut River through its entire life, meaning officially, no tornado in Vermont. 

DECENT RAINS FOR NOW

That long dry spell in Vermont from May 5 through 13 in Vermont had many of us wondering if this would be another kind of droughty summer, like the past two were. At least in northern Vermont. 

It turns out this month's dry spell didn't parch us out to the level we were at in 2020 and 2021. Soil moisture before the dry spell was good, so we had reserves. And the rains seem to have returned. 

Most place in Vermont got at least an inch of rain Saturday afternoon through Monday evening. Yesterday, some of the showers in northern and central Vermont deposited slightly more rain than I thought we'd get. I was surprised by the intensity of a downpour late last evening for instance. 

For the month so far, Burlington is only 0.17 inches below normal as of midnight. For the year as a whole, Burlington is about a half inch above normal for precipitation. Nothing extreme, but normal is good. 

More is on the way. Nothing excessive, but enough to keep the crops and gardens at least somewhat watered.

A disturbance should bring more light rain on Thursday. We'll have to watch out for Sunday.  The timing of a cold front is uncertain. It could be a bust, or we could receive strong thunderstorms with heavy downpours, or something in between. We'll have to wait and see. 

Long range forecasts through the end of the month indicate somewhat above normal precipitation around here, but note that long range forecasts are iffy.  Still, the next two weeks seems to want to feature a parade of modest rainfalls passing through. Of course we don't know what the rest of summer will bring

HEAT SQUIRT

Speaking of summer, it looks like we're in for another spell of hot summer weather, though this one will be brief. We're on a temperature roller coaster, as you've surely noticed we're off to a cool start today. 

After Thursday's chilly showers, we should pop up to 80 degrees on Friday, and stay warm and muggy Friday night. At this point, Saturday is looking it could be another day of near 90 degree temperatures. The record high in Burlington on Saturday is 92 degrees, so I don't think that record will be broken, but you never know. 

It'll cool down again after that cold front I mentioned for Sunday.

Tornado In New Hampshire Just Over Vermont Border, And Storm Wrap Up For Monday.

A man caught this tornado on his dash cam Monday
as he drove through Charlestown, New Hampshire
just across the border from Springfield, Vermont.

 The first fairly widespread spell of severe thunderstorms of the season is over, with pockets of damage here and there. 

The most dramatic event with this system was a tornado in Charlestown, New Hampshire, just over the Connecticut River from Springfield, Vermont at around 6:30 p.m. Monday.

YouTuber Silver & Brass caught the tornado on his truck dashcam. As you can see in the video, there's clearly a funnel with strong, swirling winds that eventually hits the truck.  The truck takes little if any damage. 

After the tornado passes, the driver continues down the road and encounters dozens of trees felled by the tornado. 

On Twitter, meteorologist Eric Weglarz said it was the best, clearest video of what is known as a QLCS tornado he's seen in New England.

QLCS stands for Quasi-Linear Convective System, which is a line of storms that has bends and kinks in it. Sometimes, the air will start to spin near one of these kinks, and a tornado results.  That is apparently what happened in Charlestown. 

The tornado appeared to be along Route 11 in Charlestown near the intersection of Route 12A. That puts the twister on the edge of town closest to the Vermont border. Though the storm hasn't been analyzed yet, the path of it doesn't appear to have touched Vermont in any way, so no Vermont tornado.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine are expected in Charlestown today to determine the exact path and strength of this tornado. 

In Vermont, there wasn't anything as dramatic as a tornado, but still, there was storm damage. 

After seeming to start fading in the late afternoon, thunderstorms rejuvenated as the raced northeastward through central and northern Vermont in the evening. 

Warren was hit with what was probably a microburst that tossed down numerous trees and wires. Earlier in the day a storm blew down some trees and wires along Route 22A near Addison, and started a brush fire. 

I'm not sure how the brush fire got going.  Perhaps the storm's rains missed that particular spot, allowing fallen lines to set the small blaze? Not sure. 

Trees were also reported down around Guilford and Athens, in far southern Vermont. 

Power outages across Vermont peaked at about 3,900, according to VTOutages.com

Heavy rain was another factor with these storms.  Flood warnings and flash flood warnings went up in Rutland and Addison counties for a time Monday evening. Though I'm sure there were some eroded driveways and gravel roads in that region, I haven't seen any reports of serious damage.

The rain with these storms overall did more good than harm, as they ended a 10-day dry spell. 

As Roger Hill (@wxeringheights) points out on Twitter, pretty much everybody in Vermont except a few spots in the lower Connecticut River Valley received at least an inch of rain over the past three days. 

Some three day totals were pretty impressive: Brandon, Jeffersonville and Johnson, for instance, each received around four inches of rain between Saturday and last night.

WHAT'S NEXT

If you like variety, this is your week. 

Sunday was cloudy and humid, Monday was active to say the least, and today, we're back to April.  It'll be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool today, with numerous showers around, especially in the  north this afternoon.  The showers won't be particularly heavy, but it will make things feel like a throwback to earlier in the spring. 

Skies will clear and it will be quite cool tonight, with lows close to 40 degrees. The coldest hollows will probably have some frost, but most of us will stay in the safe zone. Barely.

After a cool, but sunny Wednesday, the forecast gets uncertain, but definitely still variable. It seems like some showers will be around Thursday, then it will get warm Friday, possibly hot on Saturday.  A new cold front will bring showers and storms over the weekend, but we don't know precisely when the front will come through. 

Which means we don't know how strong any storms will be, how hot it will get Saturday, and how much it will cool down Sunday and Monday. As usual, stay tuned. 

Videos.

As always, if you don't see an image of the video on your screen, click on the hyperlinks to view. 

First up, here's the tornado and its aftermath from that dash cam by Silver & Brass. The phone conversations between the driver and his wife are also humorous, but note that they are NSFW. 

For a much milder mood, here's a very brief video I took of some very pleasant rains and rumbles of thunder in St. Albans, Vermont last evening. 

 

Vermont Severe Storm Update: Pockets Of Flooding Now Biggest Concern

A few pockets of flooding wind and hail with today's 
turbulent weather in Vermont, but here in St. Albans, just
 little more welcome rain and a couple rumbles of thunder.

 Most of us did NOT receive severe thunderstorms in Vermont today, but a few places got it pretty good.

I give special kudos to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. Before this all started today, they noted in their forecast discussion that several storms would form over the Green Mountains ahead of the main line of storms coming in from New York. 

Those Vermont storms would stabilize the air and limit the punch of the main squall line, except maybe in far southern Vermont. That's exactly what happened. 

The NWS/South Burlington also said some of those earlier storms would pack a punch and they did so. Several trees and power lines came down along Route 22A near Addison, and there were some reports of small hail, mostly about dime size.

In most places, though, the wind was manageable. I saw that Burlington got hit by a severe-warned storm, but the highest gust with it was a not-bad 36 mph. 

The big trouble spot this evening is, as usual around Rutland. That area seems so prone to torrential thunderstorms and it's happened again. 

I already told you about the gullywasher storm they had Saturday and the additional inch or so of rain Sunday morning in Rutland County. 

Late his afternoon, two thunderstorms ahead of the main line of storms merged over Rutland County, dumping torrential rain. Then the main band of storms was working through as I wrote this around 6p.m. and radar indicated the rain was especially heavy with this feature over Rutland County.

It's too soon to know how much flooding there is down in that neck of the woods. Could be minor, could be locally nasty.  Don't know yet. I hope to have some sort of update tomorrow morning. 

A flood warning was issued, followed up at 6 p.m. or so by a flash flood warning specifically for Rutland, Proctor, West Rutland, Pittsford, Ira, Castleton, Hubbardton, Poultney and Florence.  

I also noticed on radar at 6:15 p.m. an area of especially torrential rain moving up from Addison County into eastern Chittenden County.  That area has received little rain is a little better equipped to deal with the runoff. But if this holds together and makes it to areas north and west of Stowe, that could get dicey due to earlier heavy rain there. 

Most of the rest of us are getting rumbles of thunder and some very welcome rain, with a few heavier downpours mixed in just for emphasis

Although the severe thunderstorm watch was still in effect as of 6:15 p.m., I think the risk of damaging winds and large hail is not zero, but pretty low at this point. I noticed a new severe thunderstorm warning did pop up for the area around Montpelier just now. 

Beyond that, flooding is the only real concern I have. 

The outcome is uncertain on the flooding, so I'll update tomorrow. 

Impressive Derecho, Storms And Dust Swept The Northern Plains Thursday

Violet storm and haboob approaching Sioux Falls,
South Dakota last week. Photo via twitter, @NancyAllard17

While we await some potential severe weather later today, I am still agog at the wild storms that swept through parts of the Midwest this past Thursday.  

The storms later today might be dangerous, but Thursday's episode was in a league of its own. 

An impressive line of storms known as a derecho swept through a good chunk of Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota Thursday with wind gusts as high as 107 mph.  Needless to say, widespread damage was left behind.

The storm has been blamed for three deaths.

The storms were a derecho, defined as a fast moving line of intense thunderstorms that lasts for many hours. By definition a derecho produces a swath of damage of at least 240 miles and causes frequent wind gusts of at least 58 mph.

Thursday's event easily met this criteria.  

Preliminary data indicates there were 55 reports of wind gusts of at least 75 mph. This ranks second in the number of such reports with a derechos. Thursday's derecho now means the top four highest wind speed derechos, at least as measured by the number of hurricane-force wind gust reports, have happened in the past two years. 

The derecho with the biggest number of 75 mph+ reports was 64 with a storm last December. Ranking third is the Iowa derecho of August, 2010, which was the most expensive thunderstorm in U.S. history.  Iowa has now been hit with three of the top four worst derechos. 

Thursday's derecho focused its fury on eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, and large swaths of Iowa and Minnesota. 

As the storms briefly turned day into night, the howling winds caused immense damage. 

In Tripp, South Dakota, the wind gusted to a whopping 107 mph. Drone video from the town showed four large grain elevators toppled, and structural damage to several buildings. 

The fast moving line of storms - the forward motion of these things was more than 70 mph - kicked up walls of dust. These are known as haboobs, which are huge dust storms that drop visibility to zero and are obviously very dangerous to anyone out on the highways. 

Haboobs are pretty common in places like Arizona and Texas.  But they're relatively rare in the central and northern Plains. At least they've been rare since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s.

At least five tornadoes were embedded within this derecho. The worst was in Castlewood, South Dakota where a tornado swept through the middle of town, badly damaging the community school and destroying a number of houses.

Video.

As always, click on the links if you can't see the video displayed in this post on your device.

Here's video from the Argus Leader of the haboob sweeping into Sioux Falls, South Dakota. 

Fox Weather obtained video of the tornado and storm sweeping into Castlewood, South Dakota:

Kevin W. Ray captured the approach of the storm and a tree falling in his Sioux Falls neighborhood:

 

Today's Vermont Severe Weather Threat, Explained

Though the highest threat for damaging, severe 
thunderstorms in in the orange zone, Vermont
is at risk for severe storms as well, 
mostly between 2 and 10 pm. today. 

UPDATE:  

is now in effect for all of Vermont through 8 pm. 

The expected main line of storms is still well to our west, but also as expected, storms are firing up in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains well ahead of this line. 

Some of these storms might become severe as well. 

A few of these storms are capable of turning into supercells, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, which could contain large hail and damaging winds.

Be weather aware folks. Storms will continue to roam the area for the rest of the afternoon and probably into the evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has kept Vermont in the low risk category for severe storms today, which is alert level two of five.

That means stay on your toes for scattered incidents of severe thunderstorms.  Most of us won't see a storm that meets severe criteria. But a few lucky devils will so we'll need to be on our toes.  

The rest of us ought to be on our toes, too, really.  Even if you don't have a storm that's officially "severe," a lot of storms today will have gusty winds, dangerous lightning and torrential downpours. 

The patches of dense fog were burning off as I write this, (later in the morning than usual due to an Xfinity outage). The sun will help destabilize the air ahead of a potent cold front coming from the west later today.

Vermont isn't really at the highest risk of severe weather of all the places in the Northeast. The bullseye seems to be from central New York down through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and down into Maryland.

Those spots as of this writing have the highest chance of damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado. That doesn't mean we're out of the woods in Vermont, it just means the Green Mountain  State has a slightly lesser chance of being on the receiving end of nastiness. 

It looks like the main show for the Northeast will be a whomping squall line.  Up here in Vermont, that squall line might be just a tiny bit weaker. Here's why, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

Well ahead of this squall line, thunderstorms should develop over the Green Mountains by early afternoon as the atmospheric instability grows. These storms could stabilize the air a little bit, so the squall line, when it gets here, might not have all the ingredients to make it super powerful.

That said, the squall line will have what is known as a negative tilt. That means it'll have a northwest to southeast orientation as it approaches us. It won't be a huge tilt, but it might add a little energy to this. 

It looks like the main line of storms will come in somewhere around 5 or 6 p.m in western Vermont, give or take, and be out of eastern Vermont by around 10 p.m. It's hard to say which parts of this squall line will be most intense around here. We won't know until it is approaching or over us

By the way, by far the biggest threat from these storms is straight line winds and localized flooding.  Still there's a very low, but not zero chance of a quick spin up tornado. Don't count on that, but it's within the realm of possibility. 

Although we had a long dry spell, pockets of Vermont had torrential downpours Saturday and Sunday. This is especially true around Rutland. That area received 1 to 3.5 inches of rain in an epic, isolated thunderstorm Saturday. 

Greensboro also picked up a little over two inches of rain Saturday. Some parts of northern Vermont and the Adirondacks also received some heavy downpours Sunday.

If especially heavy storms or several of them hit these wet areas in particular today, there could be some local flash floods. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has us in a risk zone for some pockets of excessive rain and flash flooding today. 

The cold front driving these big thunderstorms has some chilly air behind it. You'll really notice it tomorrow. 

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will barely make it to 60 degrees while lows reach the upper 30s and low 40s midweek. 

So, the bottom line for today: You're at risk of seeing a good boomer any time after about 1 p.m. Anything before late afternoon will be basically appetizers, hit and miss. But some of those early storms might pack a punch, so take 'em seriously. 

The main show is toward evening.  I'll update this as warranted. Basically, if you see a storm coming or receive a severe thunderstorm warning, just get your butt into a sturdy building.  

Was An Interesting Vermont Weather Saturday, Conditions To Continue "Interesting" Through Monday

Decaying remnants of a thunderstorm that came off
the northern Green Mountains created this pretty sky 
over Burlington, Vermont last evening. Some areas
did manage to see some good boomers y'day.
Meanwhile, severe weather tomorrow?

For a weather geek, conditions in Vermont were pretty interesting on Saturday, what with record warmth once again and some fascinating, sometimes strong thunderstorms. 

We have more weather we really need to pay attention to today and especially Monday. More on that after we get through the sometimes surprising weather we had yesterday. 

First, the heat.

For the third day in a row, Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury reported record high temperatures. 

St. Johnsbury was notable because they reached 90 degrees for the second day in a row, so they were pretty much the hot spot in Vermont during this. 

Burlington reached 88 degrees, besting the old record of 86 in 1961.

I'm pretty sure this was the first time since September, 2017 that Burlington had record highs on three consecutive days.  So it's a pretty rare event. 

Then there were the thunderstorms. We knew a few would form over the mountains, but they became fairly widespread toward evening, more so than many forecasters thought. 

Thunderstorms need some sort of updraft to get them going.  Lose the updraft, lose the thunderstorm. A cold front, low pressure or even a weak trough of low pressure will sustain thunderstorms for a few hours. That's why we have lines of thunderstorms coming through Vermont fairly regularly during the warm season.

We'll have that on Monday, in fact, which I'll get to in a moment. 

On Saturday, the only updrafts to generate thunderstorms were light winds that were forced to rise up the slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. 

Those updrafts generated thunderstorms.  But then, each thunderstorm would move away from that mountain, and the updraft the storm fed on would disappear. So the thunderstorm would collapse, bringing a rush of cool air to the surface as they did so.

That rush of cool air acted like a snowplow pushing a foot of fluff off your driveway back in February. That snowplow effect would generate updraft and another thunderstorm. Then that storm would collapse, generating yet another thunderstorm and so on. 

Each thunderstorm had a brief life, and not all of them generated new ones. I saw one storm on radar that looked like it had a really heavy downpour form in eastern part of the town of Huntington, move into part of Hinesburg and then dissipate before reaching Route 7 in Shelburne. The entire lifespan of this storm was less than 45 minutes. 

The very light air flow was from the southeast on Saturday, so the storms that did generate moved in the opposite direction most summer thunderstorms do. They usually approach us from the west.    Saturday's storms came at us from the southeast. 

A small minority Saturday's thunderstorms were borderline severe. The biggest one came off the Green Mountains into Rutland, dumping torrential downpours and hail the size of dimes or even pennies. 

One unofficial report out of Rutland Town indicated 3.3 inches of rain with that storm including 2.2 inches in 45 minutes. Another 1.1 inches of rain was reported in the spot this morning.

Another report indicated Rutland had up to 1.5 inches of rain in just one hour.   Small hail was also reported up in Highgate. 

As is usual with storms, some places missed out altogether. Burlington reported a rumble of thunder, but not a drop of rain Saturday.  Those of us who did get the rain were grateful, as we needed it.

But be careful what you wish for.....

STORMS, SOME SEVERE LOOM

This morning dawned overcast and humid as the remnants of a pesky storm that had been hanging around the Mid-Atlantic States for a week finally breaks up and comes through New England today. 

We'll have scattered showers and storms, all hit and miss today. 

Interestingly, because today's storms will be slow movers, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has put the northern half of Vermont under a marginal (read low but not zero) risk of flash flooding. However, it's been dry, as you know so stream flows are low.  Any high water, ponding on roads or dirt road erosion today will be isolated.  

Monday's really the day we have to watch out for. 

The potential set up is there for possible severe storms in and near Vermont Monday afternoon and evening. 

A vigorous cold front will be approaching, and this disturbance will be tilted in a northwest to southeast orientation, which can increase the chance of severe thunderstorms.  The air will be moist, and if we can get some morning sun, that will destabilize the atmosphere further. 

Vermont remains in the slight risk category for severe storms, level two out of five in the risk ranking. An enhanced risk, which is level three out of five, looms just barely to our west in the latest update from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

The biggest threat from these storms will be intense straight line winds in a few spot. This, of course means damage to trees, power lines, even structures. Take any thunderstorm alerts and warnings seriously tomorrow, and get inside a sturdy building if a storm is approaching. Monday is NOT the day to go on a hike or take an excursion out on the lake. 

Some of these storms could also have some large, damaging hail. There's even a very low, but again not zero chance of a quick spin up tornado,  because there will be changes in wind direction and speed with height as these storms come through. That situation can get a storm to start rotating.  

The storms should depart to the east of Vermont by late evening Monday.  We then get into a few days of seasonable May weather for the rest of the week. 

More Vermont Heat Records Fell Friday More Today, Then Storms?

This week's very warm weather is really rushing the 
spring season along. This is the lilac tree in front of
my house six days ago, also note the trees in the 
background........

More record high temperatures baked Vermont yesterday, as expected. 

Burlington reached 88 degrees, besting the old record of 84 set in 1985.  As you can see, Burlington eluded that magical first 90 degree temperature of the season.  I'm doubting we'll make it to 90 today. 

However, St. Johnsbury did come in with an impressive record high of 90 degrees on Friday. That shattered the old record for the date, which was 77 back in 2011. In the rather rare weather pattern we've had the past few days, far northern New England tends to be the hottest part of the region.

Way up in normally icy Caribou, Maine, the temperature reached 90 degrees, smashing the old record of 78 degrees. This was the second earliest 90 degree reading on record for Caribou. 

Back here in Vermont Montpelier broke its record high for the date by a wide margin. It got up to 87 degrees, exceeding the old record by five degrees.

The blocky weather pattern that has caused this record warmth is now starting to break down. We'll squeeze out one more day of near record highs, but for the next few days, we'll have more clouds, some showers and maybe even some strong thunderstorms by Monday. 

.....and the exact same lilac tree this morning. Quite a
change in six days. Nice aroma, too!

Since the heat wave is just starting to erode today, things in Vermont won't be too much different than they were Thursday and Friday. 

This afternoon, you'll see more to those puffy clouds you typically see in the summer - cumulus and towering cumulus mainly over the mountains. 

A few of these clouds will blossom into full-blown, but isolated thunderstorms that will hug the mountains.

You'll probably see these thunderstorms billow up, move slowly northward and dissipate before they get anywhere near most of us valley dwellers.  

Because of the extra clouds this afternoon, it might be a degree or two "cooler" today than Thursday and Friday were. Burlington's record high for today is 86 degrees. I suspect we might just tie that record, but we'll see. Montpelier has a decent shot of at least tying its record high of 85 degrees this afternoon.

After today, the record highs are done for at least awhile, but it'll probably take until later Monday or Monday night to return to truly cool spring weather. 

Remember that big ocean storm well south of New England that was part of this blocking pattern? Some of the remnant moisture from that will blow in Sunday, providing us with chances of hit and miss showers and thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center includes 
Vermont in a large slight risk zone for
severe thunderstorms on Monday

None of the storms will be severe, and not all of us will get needed rain. But at least there's a decent chance of it. Though it will be cooler, with highs in the 75 to 82 degree range, it will be noticeably more humid, so we'll have that to deal with it. 

Monday is kind of a wild card at this point. A cold front will be approaching.  If it doesn't make it here until late afternoon, we could be looking at some scattered severe thunderstorm.  This could be the first outbreak of summer-like strong thunderstorms we've seen this year in Vermont. 

But it's still a maybe.  Things have to line up correctly to give us some big boomers, and it's a little early to tell if that will actually happen. For what it's worth, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk zone for severe storms Monday. That's level two on a five point threat scale. 

We then finally get into the cool air, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, when we expect highs only in the mid 60s, which would actually be just a tad cooler than average for this time of year. 

There are some signs in the long range forecasts that we could get quite warm again by next weekend, but that's a huge maybe.  It almost certainly won't be as toasty as it's been the past few days, but stay tuned!