Extreme Rains In Italy, Oman Break Records, Again In Climate Change World

Destruction in Italy after extreme rains fell in Quillano, Italy.
Photo by Taro Pecorano/LaPress/AP

 The weather remains very quiet here in Vermont and will stay that way for probably a week. No news to report here, which is a nice break from any risk of extremes.  

The only thing we need to confront is above normal temperatures through probably at least the third week of October.

This year of weather extremes rolls on elsewhere in the world, of course. As CNN and the Washington Post highlight,  the latest victims were northwestern Italy and Oman. 

The Italian rainfall is almost too wild to believe.

The town of Rossiglione, in Italy's Genoa province, had 29.2 inches of rain in just 12 hours, the most ever recorded in Europe.  For comparison's sake, Rossiglione usually gets about 50 inches of rain per year, so they got more than half that in 12 hours.

For those of us in Vermont who want to compare, it normally takes about 10 months for 29 inches of rain to fall on the Green Mountain State.

There are more impressive rain totals from this Italian storm. In just six hours, 19.5 inches of rain fell on Cairo Monenotte in Genoa Province. And 7.1 inches fell in one hour at  Vicomorasso, about 16 miles east of Rossiglione.

Not surprisingly, the extreme downpours created a massive flood with serious damage. Remarkably and thankfully,  there have so far no reports of casualties from this terrible storm. 

In Oman, a rare cyclone-- we call them hurricanes here in the U.S., hit the nation's northern coast. This area is normally a desert with almost no rain ever. 

In Al Khaburah, Oman, 14 inches of rain fell in six hours.  It normally takes three years for that much rain to fall in that part of Oman.  Huge flooding naturally resulted from this mess. At least 14 people died in the storm. .

The Italian and Oman extreme rains follow other unprecedented floods this year in China, central Europe and New York and New Jersey from former Hurricane Ida. 

Extreme flooding in Oman. Via CNN

A warmer climate means more extreme rain events, so the kind of post you're reading now is going to seem a bit like a broken record.   There will be more and more of these kinds of floods.

It does make me paranoid about us here in Vermont. As we well know, the hilly and steep landscape and all those small brooks and streams easily go wild in heavy rains.  We still shudder when we remember the Tropical Storm Irene floods in 2011.

I don't know if we're primed to get eventually get something worse than Irene in an atmosphere now stoked by climate change.  It might happen next month, ten years from now or never. 

Italy and Oman are far, far away from Vermont. But the recent extreme rains in those two nations still feel too close to home.  

Will Those Pesky Clouds Finally Depart Today?

Skies were finally clearing over St. Albans, Vermont
this morning, and that clearing trend should spread
across the rest of the state today. 

 Today's the day when us Vermonters should finally see the sun after a long hiatus.

It's been overcast since Saturday, so I'm sure lots of you are beginning to wonder whether the sun would ever reappear. 

Although that sunshine should come sometime today, exactly when is the question. 

The Canadian province of Quebec, at least north of Montreal, basked in sunshine Tuesday and that drier air has been slowly trying to bleed southward across the International Border.

The dry air has been battling stubborn moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere here in Vermont.  Forecasters think the battle will be won as the sun gets high enough into the sky late this morning to cause the atmosphere to mix. 

Drier air up above will start to dip down and skies will clear. 

It looks like northern areas will be the first to clear later this morning, and that process should head south through the state by early afternoon.

These overcast sieges happen in Vermont from time to time in the autumn, and it's often hard to predict when they will break up.  So don't be surprised if the clearing comes a little sooner or somewhat later in the day than forecast in any given location.

My bet is on an earlier clearing trend. At my place in St. Albans, not far from the Canadian border, skies cleared abruptly shortly after 8 a.m at least briefly, though patches of low clouds were moving back in. So it might be an uneven clearing trend as we go through the morning.   

Once we clear out, we should see a fair amount of sun until the weekend.  Do expect many areas of fog and overcast in the mornings, though, which is typical of this time of year.

A backdoor cold front is coming in Saturday, which might help to temporarily cloud us over.  It's called a backdoor cold front because it's coming in from the northeast, instead of the west or northwest like most cold fronts do.

The backdoor cold should bring a whoosh of more moist air off the Atlantic, so many of us could see some more fog and drizzle Saturday.  Another system might bring more clouds Sunday, but the upcoming weekend won't be nearly as dank and dreary as the past one. 

Nights in particular have been warm.  With the clearing skies, daytimes will now become warmer too, as temperatures push toward 70 degrees. With clearer skies at night, though, overnight lows will be cooler for the rest of the week, but not nearly cold enough to produce frost. 

The air coming with that backdoor cold front is only somewhat cooler than the air ahead of it, so it will still be relatively mild over the weekend, and the warm air will re-establish itself next week.

While we here in Vermont will remain warmer than normal at least through mid-month, there still are signs of impending winter, as you might expect. 

The western United States, which has been on the warm side too, will cool off big time and the first substantial snows of the season should hit the Rocky Mountains next week. 

It's already winter up in Alaska. Deadhorse, way up on the northern edge of that state, tied a record low for the date of 2 below zero yesterday.  Won't be that long before we see temperatures like that in Vermont. 

Historic October 4, 1987 Snowstorm Still Seems Wild

October 4 1987 in Bennington, Vermont. Image from
the Bennington Banner.

 It'll be a pretty nice, warm week here in Vermont, with certainly no snow in the forecast. 

Skies should slowly clear after another cloudy day today, and aside from daily early morning fog for the rest of the week, there will be no weather problems.

That kind of benign weather doesn't always happen during foliage season.

With this year'squiet weather, we can look back at one of the more remarkable weather events I can remember. That was the October snowstorm of 1987.

On this date back then, the sky was clearing after incredible amounts of snow fell, especially in southern Vermont amid peak foliage season. 

Since most of the leaves were still on the trees, the heavy, wet snow collected on those leaves, weighing down the trees until countless branches and whole trees collapsed under the burden. 

The storm stranded thousands of leaf peepers in cold, powerless hotels and inns.  Roads were impassable because of the snow and fallen trees.  

On the bright side, those who could get out were treated to a unique fall foliage experience, especially the day after the storm on October 5.  By then, skies were clear, the remaining trees gleamed with fall foliage amid a deeply snowy landscape in some parts of Vermont. 

While most of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley saw accumulating snow in that storm, the snow focused most heavily on Bennington County and on into the Capital District of New York.

In some towns, a whopping 18 to 24 inches of snow fell, and snowfall rates were up to three inches per hour. You can imagine how fast the trees collapsed under that pace of snow.   There would have been a lot of tree damage even if the storm had occurred in leaf-free winter.

The snowstorm was caused by a relatively slow moving, intensifying nor'easter whose center passed through southern and eastern New England. 

The storm pulled down some unusually cold air from Canada. The strengthening storm also formed its own pool of cold air several thousand feet above the surface.  That cold pool centered itself over western New England and eastern New York, and that created the snowstorm.

Central and northern Vermont received less snow, mostly around six inches in mid and higher elevations, but that was more than enough to break trees there, too.  I wish I wasn't at work the evening the snow began to taper off on Sunday, October 4.

In eastern Chittenden County, fall foliage was laced with lots of snow. There was a dark-post storm overcast overhead, but the sun dramatically broke through the clouds just before sunset. That combination of conditions surely made for some incredible photos. 

Temperatures warmed pretty quickly after the storm, and the snow disappeared fast. But in some towns, it took more than a week to restore power and even longer to clear all those fallen branches and trees. 

That October, 1987 storm proved that even in a relatively warm time of year, a cold surprise can really slap you in the face. 

 

The (Easy) Hunt For Hot October

Here's one forecast map that shows a full latitude ridge
extending from the Gulf of Mexico to Greenland mid-month
That would indicate warmer than normal weather over all
of eastern North America. Western North America,
especially U.S., would be on the cool side. 

In the Northern Hemisphere, the heat of summer is generally over by late September and early October as we plunge toward winter.  

In this climate change world, the weather has not gotten the memo.

Late season heat records have been broken in a LOT of places at a remarkably fast clip in late September and early October.  

In just the first two days of October, hottest temperature for the month records have been broken or tied in four nations. These are 114.8 degrees in Iran; 110 degrees in Morocco; 102 degrees in China and 90 degrees in South Korea, according to meteorologist Scott Duncan, in a thorough recent thread on Twitter. 

The Canary Islands also hit an October record at 101 degrees.

While I was visiting the Great Plains about a week ago, in the final days of September, record heat had engulfed that area, and that hot weather extended well into Canada.  Where I was staying in Yankton, South Dakota,  temperatures exceeded 90 degrees three days in a row.

Hazen, North Dakota reached 100 degrees on September 28, which is likely the furthest north on record the temperature has gotten that hot that late in the season. 

More than two dozen heat records were broken in Saskatchewan, Canada in the last week of September, including 92 in Regina. 

While we in Vermont are not experiencing record heat, we're certainly escaping the kind of chill we often see this time of year. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal  all of this week and very likely beyond that, and daytime highs will poke up into the 70s on some days. 

Nights once again have been particularly warm.  It was 58 degrees early this morning in Burlington, a temperature that would not at all be unusual for that time of day in July.

Most places in the Green Mountain State have not yet seen their first autumn frost this year. Most of Vermont  usually sees its first frost of the season right about now.  That's not happening this week. Probably won't happen next week, either. 

We're not yet at the stage at which the first frost would set records for lateness.  Records for latest first frosts are right around Halloween.

The persistent warmth is forecast to continue across the eastern half of North America at least through mid-month.  This will include well above normal temperatures far to the north. 

This is turn, could keep water temperatures above normal in the Great Lakes, Hudson Bay, and the myriad of lakes in Quebec and Ontario.  Chances are these bodies of water will also start to freeze over later than usual, too.  This is especially true if the warm pattern holds into November.

That could mean a very cloudy early winter here in Vermont.  When it's relatively cold, moisture rises from the comparatively warm waters, which make the skies over the Northeast and southeast Canada very cloudy.  The very weak sun of November and December can't do much to disperse those clouds.

The cloudiness, if it happens, would also tend to produce frequent bouts of light snow and flurries here in Vermont during the early winter.  There would also be a greater chance of heavier lake effect snows downwind of the larger lakes, especially in western New York.  

Northern Vermont Gets A Welcome Soaking; Southern Vermont Next

By October, Vermont gardens tend to look shabby, but
the colors of lingering flowers and changing leaves
pop out in the gloom and drizzle of a rainy weekend
here in St. Albans, Vermont

 I actually don't mind autumn days like we had in northern Vermont on Saturday. 

It was dark. And overcast. It rained all day. There was fog. It was gloomy.  A great day to get stuff done indoors.  

Today won't be all that much better. Sorry sun lovers!

However, northern Vermont should welcome the rain in particular, as it's still on the dry side, with drought lingering near the International Border.

The rain, while drenching, surely helped ease the drought and dryness, but still wasn't enough to resolve all of the groundwater shortages.   

One unofficial measure of this is the Woof River, which is what we call a small stream that runs past my house in St. Albans.  There's been no water in it for months.  With this rain, there is now the tiniest of trickles in the Woof River, but it's not flowing like it should.   We still need even more rain, on top of the 1.25 inches we've received so far here this weekend. 

Still, it was the style of rain Saturday that definitely helps. Rather than short bursts of downpours that quickly run off, this was a slow, steady wetting that tends to soak in nicely.

The trees are starting to go dormant for the winter, too, so they won't be taking up as much moisture from the ground as they would in late spring and summer. So more of the water will be stored in the ground. We need a few more autumn days like Saturday up here by the Canadian border. 

Though it will stay gloomy, probably through Monday, northern Vermont probably won't get much more rain.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking maybe a quarter of an inch through tomorrow.

Southern Vermont, which got little or no rain Saturday, will have their turn for a soaking today and tomorrow.

A weather front had stalled over northern Vermont all day Saturday and little disturbances rode northwest to southeast along it, keeping the rain going from the pre-dawn hours Saturday to dawn today. 

That front is now slowly sinking southward, and those pesky little disturbances are still riding along this front. That will aim plenty of rain through the southern half of Vermont. 

That part of Vermont is certainly not suffering from drought after a sopping wet summer.  However, September was drier, so the upshot to all the southern Vermont rain will be.......pretty much nothing. 

The rain  - amounting to more than an inch in several areas - will water any lingering autumn garden plants, and that's about it. Precipitation amounts will fall short of being able to produce any real flooding, so that's good news.

The gloom at first glance might not seem wonderful for those of you who want to go out and view the rapidly developing fall foliage.  But give it a chance. Get out there!  The dark skies really make the colors pop. Those colors almost shimmer in the rain.  Patches of fog add contrast, as do grey clouds and shrouded mountains in the background behind bright red, yellow and orange leaves.

But if you insist on sunshine for your fall foliage, you're in luck. It'll start to clear, Tuesday, and skies will be mainly sunny for most of the rest of the week.  And it will be warm, with daytime highs mid to late week hitting 70 or better in many towns. 

The rain and upcoming sun to me is giving us a classic, gorgeous start to a Vermont October. 

 

Running Out Of Hurricane Names, Again

It looks as though, for the second year in a row, they're going to run out of names for Atlantic hurricanes. There's just been too many.  

Powerful Hurricane Sam swirling in the central Atlantic 
northeast of the Leeward Islands earlier this week. 

Currently, Hurricane Sam is heading north in the central Atlantic Ocean, and Tropical Storm Victor is sputtering around the eastern Atlantic. Neither poses a real threat to land.

That leaves just one name left on the list, Wanda.  (When that forms, we can hope that one stays out to sea as well, so we can call it a Fish Storm Named Wanda). 

Ahem. 

Anyway, the National Hurricane Center's annual list of hurricane names doesn't include ones starting with Q, X, Y and Z, since there's so few suitable names starting with those letters.  So they have to find an alternative.

This never used to be a problem, because we both seem to be having more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, and small little wimpy storms that haven't been detected in the past are now being spotted due to better technology. 

In 2005 and last year, the hurricane name list was exhausted, so the National Hurricane Center used Greek names instead. 

Last year holds the record with the most named storms - 30 of 'em - and some of the late season ones were strong.  Greek names often sound similar to one another and that was the trouble last year.  Toward the end of the 2020 season we had storms named Zeta, Eta and Theta, so you can see how that can get confusing. 

To avoid the confusion this year, the National Hurricane Center came up with a full list of supplemental names. It's basically a whole fresh season of names, just in case . So if anything forms after Wanda, they'll be named Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery and so on. 

We can be very sure we won't get to the end of the supplemental list, thank goodness. For the record, the last three names on that list are Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

 That we're running out of the regular list of names definitely means we've had a very busy hurricane season. 

Another way to look at any given hurricane season, one that gives in my opinion a more complete picture of the season is ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

ACE adds up the lifespan and intensity of each hurricane and tropical storm that forms.  A wimpy little tropical storm that only lasts a day or two won't contribute much ACE.  A long lasting and powerful hurricane, like Sam, will contribute lots of ACE.

As of September 30, tropical storms and hurricanes this year had accumulated a total of 121 on the ACE index. With two ongoing systems and more likely, we might well exceed 150 for the season. That's definitely above normal, but not record breaking.  A normal season will accumulate 66 to 111 points on the ACE scale.

ACE indexes for a season vary widely year to year.  It's been as low as about 20 in 1983 to around 250 in the destructive year of 2005.

This system isn't perfect, of course because it doesn't take into account damage suffered by us humans.  A wimpy tropical storm making landfall can cause a damaging flood. Meanwhile, a powerful, long lasting hurricane like Sam can avoid land altogether, causing little suffering for us landlubbers.

On the bright side, after a terrible first half of the season, when it seemed almost every tropical storm or hurricane that formed ended up hitting the United States, we've had a break.

The storms that formed over the past month or so have steered clear of the states. There's nothing on the immediate horizon that suggests anything else is coming. But the hurricane season lasts through November, so there's still time, unfortunately, for another punishing strike by a tropical storm or hurricane.

Warm, Dry Vermont September. Nights Particularly Warm

Fall colors and roiling clouds yesterday near Fairfield, Vermont
closed out a warm, dry month of September in Vermont.
 

September in Vermont continued the general climate trend of 2021 by being warm and dry, with nights especially warm.  

In Burlington, the average temperature for the month was 64.6 degrees. Under the warmer "new normal" charts that came out this year, that's just 1.9 degrees above this "new normal."

That makes it sound like September was just a slightly warm month, but au contraire! 

It was the fifth hottest September on record. September, 2015 holds the record for hottest September.  Also, five of the top six hottest Septembers have been since 2015, so you can see a trend there. 

Had we still been under the "old normal" that had been in place until this year, September, 2021 would have been a full 5.2 degrees warmer than average.

Nights were particularly warm in Burlington this September.   We had one of the highest "low" temperatures for the month, as the coolest it got on any night was 45 degrees.  Only five nights this September managed to get below 50 degrees.

 Historically, we've had numerous Julys with nights that cold, but not so much in recent years. Most Septembers in Burlington get into the 30s, and many of them have seen frost. Not this year. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, the month was warm as well.  Montpelier clocked in with a September mean temperature that was 3.7 degrees above normal.  St. Johnsbury was two degrees milder than average.

Unfortunately for northern Vermont, which needs the rain, September was yet another dry month.  Burlington had 3.06 inches of rain, which is more than half an inch below normal. Montpelier was three quarters of an inch on the dry side, and St. Johnsbury came up more than an inch short in the rain department. 

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued yesterday, drought conditions continue to linger along the Canadian border and it's abnormally dry north of Route 2.

With it being so warm in September, there was obviously no snow, but there was ice to report.  Small hail fell in storms on September 6 and 8, and chilly showers produced more pea sized hail in St. Albans yesterday. 

As always, it's hard to predict weather for an entire upcoming month.  October will start with near to slightly above normal temperatures.  Some needed rain is in the forecast for the first few days of the month, but there won't be anything earth-shattering in that department. 

For what it's worth, long range forecasts into the middle of October call for continued warmer than normal temperatures and below normal rainfall in our area.