Botched Vermont Forecast: "Rain Storm" Turn Into Snowy Mess

 Boy, forecasters got this storm wrong. That "rain" out there in Vermont this morning is looking awfully white. 

Route 100 near Warren, Vermont
overnight. Photo via Facebook by
Enrique Melendez. 

Instead of a mostly rain event, heavy wet snow clogged highways throughout Vermont along with widespread power outages. The commute to work that was supposed to be easy was a mess for many people.  

Now that we woke up unpleasantly surprised, the storm is mostly over. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, when it became apparent that this was a snowy surprise, last night issued a winter weather advisory for northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain. 

In hindsight, it probably should have been a winter storm warning. As of 7 a.m. this morning 34,000 homes and businesses across Vermont had no electricity. This is yet another big hit for the state's electric utilities, who have suffered widespread storm damage with increasing frequency in recent years.

Many roads and highways were closed by fallen trees and power lines and stuck cars. 

 I have no clue whether climate change helped intensify last night's storm, but other storms that have causes widespread power failures in Vermont in the past decade were probably turbo-charged at least a bit by climate change. 

Snowfall totals from overnight are pretty impressive. Especially considering it was a heavy, wet snow that doesn't pile up as readily as powdery stuff. 

We don't have a complete list of totals yet, but I see reports of 9.5 inches in Calais, Duxbury and East Warren; 9.0 inches in Cabot and Standard; 8.0 inches in Waterbury Center and 7.5 inches in Worcester.

Even parts of the Champlain Valley, which were forecast to receive absolutely no snow, got at least a little.  There's a good inch of new snow on the ground here in St. Albans. However, most of the snow in the valley was mixed with a drenching rain. Places around Burlington and right near the lake got little or no snow, while the eastern Champlain Valley near the foothills of the Green Mountains got buried. 

The only bright spot to this episode is that Vermont ski areas got an unexpected but welcome dump of snow. 

WHAT WENT WRONG?

This was one of the most spectacularly wrongly forecast storm in Vermont I can remember in recent memory. And wrong with consequences. The expectation of  harmless, moderate cold rain, mixed with a little snow at mid and high elevations, turned into a dangerous winter storm. (At least in terms of power outages, tree damage and horrible road conditions).

The storm was an example of when temperatures are marginal, anything can happen. Forecasters believed temperatures would be just above freezing through most o the storm. The computer models, and meteorologists who examined them, suggested that a few inches of snow would fall on mountain summits. 

Also, areas at and above 1,500 feet would see one to three inches of snow before a likely changeover to rain.  Temperatures were expected to be around 34 degrees or even a tad higher through a thick layer of the atmosphere, from valleys to mountains and even above that. 

However, temperatures stayed just a couple degrees cooler than forecast.  Usually, if a meteorologist predicts an overnight low of 40 degrees and it turns out to be 38 instead, it's still regarded as an accurate forecast. 

But when a storm is ongoing, and the forecast is off by two degrees while readings are close to freezing, you can have real problems, as we did last night. 

Being a Monday morning quarterback, I can now see one clue ahead of the storm that might have let us know it was going to be a snowstorm, not a rain storm. 

In last evening's update, I noted predicted precipitation amounts would be a little higher than previously thought. It turns out that was a trend I'm sure many meteorologists wish they'd latched onto.    

t turns out precipitation rates and amounts were much heavier than forecast. When temperatures are marginal, as they were last night, heavier precipitation can cool the air a little, ensuring it lands on the ground as wet snow instead of rain

A for-example. Burlington was expected to receive the lighter amounts of rain compared to other parts of the state, maybe a third of an inch or so. Instead, rain, mixed with snow at times came down really hard at times, amounting to a storm total of 1.28 inches. A little more than half of that fell in just a two-hour period, which is an impressive precipitation rate for this time of year. 

 Elsewhere in Vermont, rain and melted snow was only a little more than forecast, but it might have been enough to help keep things mostly snow instead of mostly rain. 

Temperatures still remained near 32 or 33 degrees throughout the storm, which created a wet snow that was so destructive to trees and power lines.  And it made the snow that much more difficult to clear away. 

This whole episode is proof that although weather forecasting has gotten better in recent years and decades, we can sometimes really be taken by surprise. 

GOING FORWARD

Since weather forecasts around here are usually quite good, we're writing last night off as a bad moment. What happens next seems to be a little more straight forward.

The heavy precipitation has left Vermont, and we have scattered areas of light rain, snow and drizzle left behind. 

Temperatures in the 35 to 42 degree range late this morning and afternoon will help melt remaining slush on roads. However, temperatures will dip below freezing this evening and overnight. Remaining water on roads and driveways and such will freeze, making for some patchy slick spots tomorrow morning. 

Light snow showers will add to all that. Accumulations will be light, if they happen at all. But those snow showers might add to the overall annoyance. 

The next chance of any real snow or rain will come along Friday or Saturday, but it's too soon to tell whether that will be another nasty storm or just another nothing burger. 

a can't say whether

Sunday Evening Vermont Update: Heavier Precipitation, But Still Mostly Rain

We're going to have a cold rain in the Champlain Valley of
Vermont later tonight. Although clouds were increasing this
afternoon, a burst of sun toward sunset gave us a 
golden glow before we got into tonight's chilly rain. 

In checking out the updates from the National Weather Service in South Burlington late Sunday afternoon, there's some changes in the storm forecast tonight and Monday morning, but most people won't really notice the difference. 

We will have mostly a cold rain, as planned. 

This is still going to be mostly a cold, miserable rain overnight and Monday morning. 

It could start off as snow, especially at elevations above 1,500 feet above sea level before midnight tonight, but it will quickly go over to rain, except maybe at the mountain summits, where it might take a bit longer for the changeover.

Rainfall will be a little heavier than I mentioned this morning, The latest projections have the Champlain Valley receiving maybe a little over a third of an inch of rain, most of central Vermont seeing a half to two thirds of an inch, and southeastern Vermont seeing perhaps an inch of rain.

So kinda of a soaker but not the end of the world. 

Another thing I noticed is this icky weather looks like it wants to blast out of here pretty quickly on Monday. 

Monday afternoon might be sort of nice by late November standards, especially west of the Green Mountains. Temperatures will be in the low 40s, there might be glimpses of sun, and winds will only be sort of blustery.  

It will still get cold again Monday night and Tuesday with snow showers. Nothing to get excited about in Vermont. Just a coating in Vermont. The remnants of heavy lake affect snow showers in New York should make it into the Green Mountain State but those will only dust the mountains. At least it will be cold enough for ski resorts to keep making snow after a brief interruption overnight and a good chunk of Monday. 

The rest of the upcoming week looks rather bland with clouds, risks of light snow showers here and there, and temperatures about where they're supposed to be this time of year. That means highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens and 20s.

We're stuck in a sort of pre-winter. If you like big weather drama in Vermont, you're pretty much out of luck of the time being. 

Another Close But No Cigar Shot At Real Snow Here In Vermont

The snow forecast from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington for tonight and Monday is 
looking pretty paltry as warm-ish air will keep things
as mostly rain in the valleys. 

 Yet another modest storm is on Vermont's doorstep for tonight and Monday. But as it looks now, this one will bring little snow to the Green Mountain State, but provide a cold rain for many. 

It's a case of the weather systems almost getting their act together to give us a big dump of snow but not quite. 

There is a coastal low - a developing nor'easter  - at play. Yay for snow lovers, right? Those tend to give us decent early snowstorms this time of year. 

Not this time, folks. The storm will probably take somewhat of an inland track through Rhode Island or Connecticut, then eastern Massachusetts and coastal Maine. 

That path would bring a will bring a little warm air northward, which would cut down on snow totals,

More importantly with this event, there's another storm north of the Great Lakes that will block cold air from feeding into the coastal storm, so we in Vermont will probably be too warm for any heavy snows.

That said, temperatures are marginal, so it's always possible the mountains could get more snow than forecast.

Right now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us mixed snow and rain will move in early tonight in the valleys then change to a plain, cold rain with little if any accumulation Up around 1,500 feet, you might get one or two inches. Summits might see three to five inches. But even up there, it might go over to rain for awhile.

That said, if temperatures turn out to be a degree or two colder than forecast, then snow totals in many areas might surprise some people. It doesn't look like it's in the cards now, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

Even then, this won't be any kind of blockbuster as over all precipitation amounts should be light. Rain and melted snow will probably amount to only a quarter to a half inch, with maybe a little more than that in southeastern Vermont. 

It may be sort of semi-winter outside, but our hibiscus
tree that we brought indoors for the winter last month is
still cranking out tons of springlike blooms, Brightens
up the house a little during the dark days of late November,

Once the coastal storm gets by us Monday afternoon and the storm north of the Great Lakes moves east, the floodgates will open for the colder air to blast into Vermont.

 But by then, the deeper moisture will have passed us by, leaving us with just snow showers, with maybe a bit of additional accumulation in the mountains Monday afternoon into Tuesday. 

Northwest winds will be gusty by Monday afternoon as temperatures start to fall, That will leave us with typical blustery, cloudy late November weather with a few snowflakes in the air through maybe Wednesday. 

Also in the close but not cigar lane with this storm, areas relatively close to Vermont will see their share of snow and winter weather, 

 Northern New Hampshire is under a winter weather advisory for one to three inches of snow in the valleys and six inches above 1,500 feet. 

The cold winds behind the storm will also produce the first big lake effect snows of the season off of Lakes Erie and Ontario in New York.  Up to 15 inches of snow is in the forecast from these south of Buffalo, New York, and 20 or more inches in the Tug Hill Plateau snow belt east of Lake Ontario. 

I like to get away and travel every once in awhile, but it always stings a bit when I'm out of Vermont and I miss a big weather event, like the epic pre-Christmas wind storm last December.

I'm greatly looking forward to another trip away from Vermont that starts Tuesday, and it looks like I will only miss out on bland early December weather.  I will of course be occasionally posting while I'm away from a temporary location I will announce soon. 

An Ominous Climate Threshold Was Reached Last Friday

Red line is shows how far daily temperatures on Earth
were above the pre-industrial average so far this year.
At the end you can see us hit 2 degrees Celsius
above that historic average. The squiggles below
the red line are all the other years since the 1940s.
Click on the chart to make it bigger and easier to see.

 Last Friday, November 17, was the mildest day of the month here in Vermont.

It certainly didn't set any records for warmth, but it was a nice balmy interlude in what has been a somewhat chilly month. 

Worldwide, though, November 17 was an ominously warm day. For the first time, sensitive instruments saw that the day was 2.07 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850-1900 average for Earth. 

It was the first known day that global warmth was more than two degrees Celsius above that largely pre-industrial average.

It also appears as if last Saturday was also 2 degrees Celsius above the what normal was 150 or so years ago. 

The reason all this is disconcerting is because the established goal is to keep Earth's temperature from exceeding 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. So you can see how climate scientists are really bummed about last Friday. 

It was only one day, of course.  We're back below the 2 degree departure from normal, but we as a planet are still running very hot. 

As CNN reports: 

"The threshold was crossed just temporarily, and does not mean that the world is at a permanent state of warming above 2 degrees, but it is a symptom of a planet getting steadily hotter and hotter, and moving towards a longer-term situation where climate crisis impacts will be difficult - in some cases impossible - to reverse."

We are also experiencing an El Nino. That is boosting Earth's temperatures even beyond what climate change has done. It's a one-two punch, causing this year, and probably next to reach record highs for the entire world. Already, each month June through October were the world's warmest on record, and it's beginning to look like November will do the same. 

When El Nino ends, the world will cool off a little. Probably to a point near or even a little below that 1.5 degree danger threshold. That will be temporary, and the world will keep heating up and stay past that 1.5 degree goal. 

The U.N. and other policy makers had made it a policy to try and keep the world from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The scientists said humans and ecosystems would struggle to adapt to that much warming. 

We are apparently already in that struggle. Also, as CNN reports, projections indicate we will fall far short of limits to fossil fuel emissions that would keep the world's temperatures cooler than 2 degree Celsius warming scientists say we should avoid. 

Current projections are that we will be consistently 1.5 degrees warmer than the pre-Industrial Age next decade, and 2 degrees above that level in the 2040s and 2050s. However, some scientists are worried climate change is accelerating, and those warm temperatures could come sooner. 

 

Vermont Floods Threatened Cherished Snowmobiling And Winter Sports, But Repairs Saved The Season

A still from a YouTube video by Pat Moore shows
this summer's destruction around Okemo Mountain
in Ludlow, Vermont. Repairs were made in 
time for this winter's ski season. 

 Now that much of Vermont has a snow cover, I'm sure lots of people are chomping at the bit for snowmobile season. Also skiing and snowboarding. 

Due to this past summer's horrific floods, the snowmobile season for the winter of 2023-24 could have been curtailed quite a bit. However, volunteers saved the day, er, the winter. 

The Vermont Association of Snow Travelers reported at least $2 million in flood damage to parts of its 4,500 mile network of trails. 

As WPTZ reports, however, at least 90 percent of the damage has been repaired in time for winter. Jim Fay, president of VAST's board of directors, told the television station: 

"Volunteers are spending hours on end, during the week, on weekends, getting stuff brought back up, and we're in good shape."

Fay said volunteers are using personal equipment and hiring local construction companies and paying out of pocket to fix trails "They're going above and beyond," Fay said. 

Two VAST suspension bridges over the Winooski River, one in East Montpelier and the other in Waterbury, were severely damaged and will remain out of commission through this winter. VAST is working with FEMA to obtain funding for those repairs. 

Some Vermont ski areas suffered flood damage, but it wasn't enough to disrupt this winter's ski season.

In hard-hit Ludlow, Okemo had to close for summer activities for a couple weeks due to damage, mostly in town and not so much on the slopes.

Okemo's slopes did suffer some minor erosion damage, but that has long since been fixed.  Some buildings suffered water damage, but that, too has been repaired. 

As of Thanksgiving, only 12 of Okemo's 129 trails were open for skiing and riding, but that's only because it's early in the season.. As snow making and natural snow (hopefully!) pile up, Okemo will expand its offerings. 

Killington, the "Beast of the East" also suffered some flood damage in July, and was forced to curtail some summer operations for awhile.

Two base lodges, Bear Mountain and Skyeship, were heavily damaged, WPTZ reported.  Those buildings weren't used in the summer, and have since been repaired for winter. Some ski trails were also damaged, but have since been fixed and will be used as usual this winter.

Infrastructure in hard hit ski towns - like roads, sewers, electricity and such - have long since been restored and won't be an issue for people visiting during ski season. However, some favorite restaurants and shops have not yet reopened.  

All these tourism-related businesses are of course completely tied to Vermont's economic health. If tourists are discouraged from visiting Vermont  because of flood damage - or fears that the destruction would harm their experience - we all suffer. 

I haven't found data on how the summer flood affected the autumn foliage tourism season. But I do know the floods dented Vermont's summer figures. 

Vermont Business Magazine at the end of August reported tax revenue in most categories fell short in July, the first month of the state's fiscal year. 

The target for rooms and meals tax revenue in July was $14.3 million, but actual revenue was $13.5 million. That's not a crash, but it fell short. Other revenue streams that were less related to the flooding also fell short.

So, bottom line, we'd better hope we see a lot of winter visitors to Vermont.  We'd also better hope for big dumps of mountain snow this winter. That's a tall order in a winter in which El Nino is raging and climate change isn't helping. 

I'm among legions of Vermonters who don't like shoveling snow in the winter. But I don't know about you, but I"m completely willing to take one for the team. 

Canadian Wildfire Season Mercifully Ends After Unprecedented Burn Year

Chart shows the monthly trend line in acreage burned in
Canadian wildfires. Pink line is 2023. All the
other lines are yearly fire activity since 2000,

 Winter has pretty much set in for most of Canada, so after so many months of conflagrations, the nation isn't burning anymore.  

You've noticed the change here in Vermont. This November, whenever the wind shifts into the north, we don't get wildfire smoke anymore. That's definitely a change from what we experienced from May to early October.  And it's fortunate, since winds have been from the north and northwest most of this month. 

The Canadian fire stats are pretty wild, per the Washington Post:

"About 45.7 million acres have burned in 2023, surpassing the previous high of 17.5 million acres based on records dating back to 1983, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center." 

The total acreage burned is about the same as the annual totals from 2015 to 2022 combined. If all the burned land was combined, it would entirely cover North Dakota, with about 200,000 additional acres in say, South Dakota.

Obviously, Canada is a huge nation. As such, you'd normally expect in any given year that parts of Canada might be hot and dry, while others would be cool and wet. Somehow, almost all of Canada managed to be hot and dry by their standards for much of the year. 

On the west coast, British Columbia saw 7 million acres burn this year, which is more than double the previous record. In eastern Canada, 12.8 acres burned in Quebec, also double the previous record for that province. 

In small sized Nova Scotia, 62,000 acres burned, which was six times the old record.

Some of the fire-ravaged areas also experienced extreme weather whiplash.  Parts of Nova Scotia were devastated by fires in May. Those same areas endured severe flooding in July and August. 

Traffic makes its way along Interstate 89
in Georgia, Vermont on June 25 through smoke and haze from
Canadian wildfires. Canada had by far its worst 
fire season on record. 

It's hard to say whether fires are a steeply accelerating crisis in Canada. We know that trend in wildfires has been increasing in the (former) Great White North, as the nation has turned warmer and sometimes drier with climate change. 

However, 2023 was simply unimaginable, until it happened.

I have to wonder whether 2024 will be a bad year, too.  El Nino is in full force, which tends to make Canada as a whole warmer and drier than usual. Combined with climate change, it could be another bad year. 

Another bad fire year in Canada would of course be bad for the United States, too.  Vast areas of the continental U.S. choked on repeated smoke and pollution episodes from those Canadian fires. That surely had health effects for millions of people. 

Thankfully, right now, most of Canada is snow covered, and will remain that way through at least March and much of April, 2024.  The first fires of the season in Canada usually start in May and taper off in September. 

Vermont Storm Assessment And Forecast: It Was Well Predicted. Coming UP: Lots Of Cold, Not Much Storminess

This is the forecast of snowfall of the storm we just had,
issued less than 24 hours before it started. The southeastern
third of Vermont was expected to get roughly four inches of snow
with much less in western Vermont.....

The snow and schmutz we had last night and early this morning is over, leaving behind a low overcast, fog, and drizzle. 

The snow and sleet on the ground is slowly melting. But enough snow fell in eastern Vermont to guarantee a white Thanksgiving. 

Who knows whether there will be a white Christmas, but at least one holiday is snowy for some of us. 

The forecast location of the heaviest snow was spot on. The heaviest snow was expected along and east of the Green Mountains from Route 2 south. That's exactly what happened. 

Total snowfall, though, was a little more than forecast. The zone of heaviest snow was expected to bring three to five inches. However, several places received six inches, or at least close to it. I saw quite a few reports of more than five inches.

A map of actual snowfall from this storm from the 
National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
The location of the heaviest snow was spot on, but 
the amount of snow was a little heavier than forecast.

The snow winners seem to be 6.3 inches in Maidstone, up in the Northeast Kingdom and 6.0 in Ascutney, in southeastern Vermont. 

It really does look like the summits in the Green Mountains have established a snow cover for the winter. Before the storm, the top of Mount Mansfield had three inches on the ground.

 Several inches of additional snow covered the mountain in this storm. The weather is expected to stay fairly cold for the next week or two, so get used to snow covered mountains. Yay!

Going forward, there's not much exciting weather to talk about. Thanksgiving Day will probably be the warmest of the next week and a half at least. But it won't be that warm, as highs will probably only make it to the low 40s at best. 

Small disturbances from the northwest will keep us in a regime of continued colder than normal weather with minor episodes of snow showers. Winter is here. For now,.

For those who are not quite ready for winter, there's hints of warmer weather starting around the second week of December. However, these long range forecasts are notoriously iffy, so don't count on it!