I'm Shocked That So Far, Forecasters Aren't Really Backing Off Of Northeast Soaker Forecast

Rainfall forecasts with the upcoming storm remain
encouragingly consistent. Heaviest rain is 
forecast for southern Vermont, where it's needed most.
Up to two inches south, less than an inch Northeast.

 This is increasingly looking like this will be "the one."  

By that I mean for once, the forecasts have remained steady.  There's very little change to the idea that the drought-stricken Northeast is about to get a nice soaking rain. 

It won't be nearly enough to erase the drought. Some areas would need a good ten inches of rain to do that, and we're only talking about an inch of rain, two at the very most with this one. 

But unlike past hoped-for rains this autumn, this one still looks like it's going to come to pass.

Frankly his takes some getting used to, talking about a noticeable storm headed our way. That hasn't happened in ages, it seems. Not that I'm complaining.

If there's any trends in the forecast, they're minor. Things have trended a little colder to the southwest of the storm track. To the point where a winter storm watch has been issued for northeastern Pennsylvania. Up to a foot of snow could come down in some high elevations of the Poconos.

But moisture is moisture. Snow would tamp down brush and wildfires at least as well as a soaking rain, right?

Folks from New Jersey to New Hampshire will be dancing in the rain as they watch the smoke from these fires dissipate under the rainy overcast tomorrow

VERMONT FORECAST

Up here in Vermont, the forecast for this storm has trended a wee bit warmer. That means only the highest elevations will see any real snow, at least the way it looks now. 

Tail end lighter precipitation Friday night through Sunday might pile up a few inches way up high, but the period of heaviest precipitation Thursday and Thursday night would be rain, unless maybe you're way up at 3,000 feet of elevation or higher. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will hit southern Vermont, which is great, because that's where it's currently the driest. 

Best guesses through Saturday morning brings about 1.25 to nearly two inches of rain for most areas south of Route 4.

The Champlain Valley looks like they're in for maybe an inch of rain.

The Northeast Kingdom is most likely to get cheated out of some of the rain. There's a lot of east winds with this system, especially when the best moisture arrives. When there's a steady, strong east wind with a storm system, New Hampshire's White Mountains often block a lot of the moisture from reaching places like St. Johnsbury, Lyndonville, Newport and Island Pond. 

So, those areas will probably see less than an inch of rain, with a few places possibly only clocking in with a half inch. Still, that helps. 

Winds shift into the northwest over the weekend. Usually a departing storm this time of year will bring snow showers even to the valleys. It shouldn't be hard to get below freezing in late November. 

Not this time. There's very little cold air to our north to tap into, so valleys should keep going with mostly cold rain showers, while the high elevations do get a little snow.  

The precipitation - valley showers and mountain snow shower - will gradually wane during the day Sunday. 

Beyond the weekend, the forecast still looks iffy. Unfortunately, it looks like it's trending a little less stormy than earlier predictions, so we might not get as much needed extra rain and snow as I first thought. 

But who knows? I'll keep an eye on it.  

First Major West Coast Atmosphere River Getting Their Wet Season Off To A Doozy Of A Start

We've entered the season in which pretty big storms come off the Pacific Ocean and hit various parts of the West Coast, sometimes intensely, sometimes not.  

Satellite view shows the strong "bomb" cyclone centered off
the Washington and British Columbia coast this afternoon.
It's the comma shaped thing on the right hand side of the 
image. Part of the atmospheric river is visible as that
long white streak heading west from the storm

The first major storm of the season looks like quite a doozy. What is known as a bomb cyclone will team up with an atmospheric river .

A bomb cyclone is a storm that's intensifying super fast. A storm is a center of lower air pressure. In general, the lower the air pressure in a storm, the stronger it is.

 Technically, if the air pressure in a storm drops by 24 millibars within 24 hours, the storm is a bomb. 

Bomb storms are often dangerous they are simply strong and getting stronger. You can plan on a lot of wind and precipitation if you're hit with a bomb cyclone, and that will be the case with this "bomb"

This storm could be the most intense in the region since at least the 1940s. 

 An atmospheric river is a long narrow corridor of deep moisture.  When one of these comes a shore, a 200 to 400 mile wide band,

So we have a strong storm and a stronger than usual atmospheric river. The result is a West Coast mess that started today. 

THE RESULT

Between this afternoon and Sunday evening, ten to as much as 15 inches of rain to northwestern California and southwestern Oregon. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says that by Thursday, there's a high risk of dangerous flooding in parts of northwestern California. High risk flood alerts from NOAA happen only about four times a year and it's exceedingly rare for them to be issued three days before the event, as this one was.

High risk days account for two-fifths of all U.S flood deaths and at least 80 percent of all flood damage. So this is serious. 

Emergency managers are especially worried about mudslides and debris flows, especially on slopes that suffered wildfires in recent years.

The storm is accompanied by those high winds. Many neighborhoods are pretty heavily forested, which means trees could fall on houses. People are being warned to stay in interior rooms on the lowest floors of their homes because of this risk, 

Those winds tonight could gust to 70 mph, with possible 85 mph gusts near the beaches. 

Ten to as much as 20 inches of rain could
fall in the yellow shaded area of 
northwest California and southwest
Oregon over the next several days. 

The rough weather extends all the way to Washington and British Columbia. High winds are expected even in the big cities of Seattle, Tacoma and Vancouver, Canada. 

Blizzard warnings are up for Washington's Cascade mountains, 

Previous to this storm, some strong systems have hit British Columbia, and sideswiped Washington State with some decent rains. But points further south have had just small introductory systems to introduce the rainy season.  

This will be a real slap of reality and could be the start of a rough winter on the West Coast, especially roughly from San Francisco north.  There's a La Nina weather pattern, albeit a weak one, and that often cause extra storminess in the Pacific Northwest

WEST COAST STORM AND VERMONT

The West Coast storminess is unrelated to the super welcome precipitation that we're expecting starting Thursday. That one got energy from a previous storm that came ashore from the Pacific a few days ago. 

Despite the power of what's hitting the West this week, I so far see few signs of that storm spawning anything extreme in our neck of the woods.   

One piece of that atmosphere river should come through New England in about a week as a modest system with light precipitation. After that, the weather pattern seems like it could be active for us, but that's uncertain.  

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Sara Thankfully Dies, Leaves A Flooded Honduras Behind

Damage in Honduras from now-departed Tropical
Storm Sara, which dissipated this past weekend.

 Tropical Storm Sara, having tortured Honduras for several days with torrential rains and flooding, finally moved inland over Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico over the weekend and died away. 

Good riddance

It left behind widespread flooding in Honduras, with reports of up to 40 inches of rain. So far, I'm grateful to report only two deaths, which seems surprisingly and happily low for a storm of this magnitude

At last check, reports from Honduras indicate 11 bridges, 226 homes and 252 streets and roadways destroyed.  More than 7600 people have been rescued.  

Some forecasts last week suggested Sara would re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico, head east and becomc a threat to Florida.

The remnants of Sara might end up in Florida this week as a patch of briefly heavy rain, but that's about it. Nothng to worry about. 

One weird aspect of this is the remnants might ended up heading south to below Jamaica in the Caribbean, which is where this thing all started in the first place. But there's very little chance - if any - that the Sara remnants would regenerate.

Sara will probably - but not definitely - be the last tropical storm of the busy 2024 season. The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, though a few tropical and subtropical storms and even hurricanes have been known to form in December.

However, the National Hurricane Center as of this morning is forecasting no tropical storm development for at least the next seven days. 

 

Vermont/Northeast Storm Update: Still Looking Nicely Wet But Some White Question Marks

A first guesstimate of expected rainfall from the upcoming
storm, courtesy of the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington. Most of us can expect 1 to 1.5
inches of rain (dark green and yellow) with about two
thirds of an inch in the Northeast Kingdom. This is
through early Friday morning. A little additional rain
and snow is expected over the weekend. 

 On paper, there are some aspects of our long awaited soaker storm expected late this week to be more white than wet, but that's not going to  happen this time.
 

Usually, this time of year, given the forecasted storm track and the expected bout of moderately heavy precipitation, we'd expect a sticky wet snowstorm with this thing. 

While I guarantee there will be some snow in Vermont out of this thing, it will be mostly a rainer, at least as it looks now.

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington points out, there's just not a lot of cold air anywhere nearby for the storm to tap into to.

 Storms like this often manufacture their own cold pocket of air, which is why I said on paper this storm looks a bit like a wet snowstorm. 

But the bets are that the storm won't be able to form a strong enough cold pool of air aloft to make it snow much. At least not in the valleys

Mountain peaks in Vermont, the rest of New England and the Adirondacks could do well, and several inches could fall at elevations above 2,000 feet. But most of us will experience a cold rain through most of the storm. 

The National Weather Service's first estimate of
snow in Vermont and surrounding areas through
Friday morning is not bullish at all. Only the
highest elevations would see snow accumulations
according to this forecast. 

That said, meteorologists are still fine tuning the forecast so we can still expect some changes on how much it snows and where, and how much it rains and where. 

Overall, rain and melted snow across Vermont should amount to between 0.75 inches and 1.5 inches between late Wednesday night and Friday morning. So that's a decent slug of moisture, for sure. 

That's true for the rest of the Northeast. The drought zone could expect a lovely one to two inches of rain from this. We're talking from New Jersey through New England all the way to Maine and beyond. 

This won't be nearly enough to erase the drought in the Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England. But it will put a dent in it, and increase runoff into very low reservoirs. At least a bit. 

Even better, this storm should be enough to finally squelch those wildfires in the Northeast that have been torturing the region for more than a month. 

Back here in Vermont, the Vermont Department of Forests Parks and Recreation has extended the burn ban in southern parts of the state until next Monday. It's still dry, after all until this rain gets here. 

BEYOND THURSDAY

The storm is expected to stall, linger and generally weaken overhead through the upcoming weekend. That means more light rain and snow, Friday through Sunday. It probably won't amount to too much, though a few forecast hint at a possible burst of somewhat heavier rain or snow in the middle of that somewhere.

But don't count that. 

At least during the weekend, some snow will pile up at the ski areas. It won't be huge, but it will help the resorts open, and put everyone in the proper frame of mind for winter sports. 

Early guesses are if the snow this weekend finds its way into the valleys, it will be brief, with intervals of light rain thrown in, so there wouldn't be much accumulation. 

After the upcoming weekend, the weather pattern still looks kind of active, but it's impossible to tell how much storminess, how much rain, much much snow will arrive to help keeping chipping away at the drought. 

In fact, it could turn dry again. It's just too soon to figure anything out beyond the upcoming weekend. 

Trump Picks Avid Climate Denier As Energy Secretary Nominee

Donald Trump isn't surprising anyone with his pick over the past couple of days for U.S. Energy Secretary.  

Fracking executive Chris Wright was just picked by Trump
to be U.S. Energy Secretary.  Wright says climate change
is no biggie and we should drill, baby, drill 

The lucky winner is Chris Wright, the head of fracking company Liberty Energy.  And you guessed, it, our buddy Chris thinks climate change is just a bunch of hooey. 

Per the Washington Post:

"The fracking executive runs a foundation focused on dispelling the conventional wisdom on climate change and promoting expanded fossil energy production as a solution to many of the world's problems, an approach others say would drive dangerous levels of warming."

Wright actually does think the climate is changing, but he also thinks it's no biggie. Let's hear from Wright himself, with this quote:

"There is no 'climate crisis,' he said. "The only thing resembling a crisis with respect to climate change is the regressive, opportunity-squelching policies justified in the name of climate change."

The news outlets have been telling us all this about Wright, too. the past couple days

As ABC News reports:

"He has argued that policies aimed at reducing the impact of climate change are misguided and alarmist, describing the terms climate crisis energy transition, carbon pollution, clean energy and dirty energy as 'destructive deceptions;' and 'nonsense.'

Wright claims that any negative impacts of climate change are 'clearly overwhelmed by the benefits of increasing energy consumption' and believes that extreme weather events like hurricanes, tornadoes and floods have not increased because of climate change."

As NPR points out, Wright's opinion there "contradicts the U.S government's own National Climate Assessment, which concluded that climate change is increasing 'the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events,' including contributing to more intense hurricanes, heat waves and flooding."

All this makes me more worried that the Trump administration will just wipe out any government information that relates to climate change, and send scientists who study this critical issue packing. 

Then, we'll all be gaslighted big time by "government reports" or what have you that lie about what is going on with climate, weather extremes and such. 

 A thing I've never truly  understood about climate deniers: To them, the only reason people are sounding the alarm over the issue is that for some reason they want to destroy the economy, make people eat only nuts and berries and end normal society. 

 I mean, huh?

Wright's blindness toward climate science is striking. Of course, I don't know the motivation. Willful ignorance? Or he doesn't want to stop getting rich off fossil fuels?   I'll bet our next weather disaster declaration that has to be part of the issue here. 

Wright's obviously a smart guy. He's got a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering and a masters degree in electrical engineering from Massachusetts Institute Technology. 

I also so far haven't heard anything about Wright's background that suggests he's completely off the rails, unlike some Trump picks so far. 

Wright should already be happy with the Biden administration, which might surprise you.

ABC News notes:

"In 2023, during the Biden administration, the United States broke a record for domestic oil production. The U.S. produced more crude oil that any other country in history - an average of 12.9 million barrels per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration."

Yes, the Biden administration has also been investing in clean energy. But those who think we've let domestic oil and gas production fall by the wayside are definitely mistaken. 

Late Week Storm System Not Weird, But We're No Longer Used To That Sort Of Thing

For the first time in ages, weather forecasts are calling
for a fairly substantial storm in the Northeast, which
would bring badly needed precipitation. This
map is one interpretation of how the storm 
might look like on the weather charts Friday morning. 

 In a normal Vermont November, we gradually slide into winter, with each storm featuring a little more snow and schmutz than the time before. 

This transition also usually features a lot of iffy forecasts that could go one way or another, snow, or rain, or ice, depending on locations just miles apart.

We've had such a dry, storm-free autumn that we never got a chance to get into practice for this sort of thing. 

Which means we now face an actual storm later this week that could bring an actual mix of fairly substantial precipitation. 

I'm not complaining. We sure need the moisture, and we'll take it however we can get it. 

There's questions as to what form the precipitation will take. After all, it's the end of November, so anything can happen. Early bets are mostly rain in the valleys and a tossup in the mountains on this one. Forecasts on the storm will certainly change and shift one way or another by the time it hits beginning Thursday.  

And this isn't even going to be a blockbuster storm by any means. Just a typical thing you'd expect around now. Still, we're in for what might be a fair amount of rain. And some snow. Whatever falls from the sky, it will be the most precipitation we've seen in at least five weeks. It might even be the most we've seen since late September. 

Bring it on.  

THE SETUP 

What will become ingredients for the storm was causing an outbreak of tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding in parts of Oklahoma and northern Texas this morning. The parent storm causing that will head northward and eventually fade.

But the energy isn't going away. At first, it will look like that original storm's cold front will weaken and fall apart as it approaches the east, like so many such fronts have done this autumn. 

Remember that energy, though. The storm will stall in the upper atmosphere above the Great Lakes and spawn a new storm somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic States. That would move north into New England Thursday.

That will cause a decent slug of what I think will be mostly rain throughout the region. Finally! Something to squelch the wildfire risk. This won't be enough to put a huge dent in the drought, but at least we get something. 

The storm will get drawn into that slow moving upper level storm. That whole thing will slowly shift eastward from the Great Lakes into New England, continuing the unsettled weather through next weekend. 

This system won't have huge amounts of cold air to work with. But it is the end of November, so it's not hard to get snow, at least in the mountains. 

At times, the snow could venture into the valleys. 

We don't know the extent of any snow just yet, but the ski areas look like they're in for several inches next weekend. 

The early guess on this suggests Vermont could see a good inch of rain and/or melted snow out of this storm. So not bad, really. This storm should affect the entire Northeast, so the super dry zones in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States should be dancing with joy in the cold rain by the end of the week. 

I do see hints that even after this storm departs, we might see a more active weather pattern. That would at least give us a shot at a few more bouts of rain or snow to close out the month and head into December. 

We could sure use it, so bring it on. 

Report: Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases Continue To Zoom Upward

All kinds of greenhouse gases are continuing to increase,
so the pace of global warming shows no sign of slowing. 

 If you think the world is starting to find success at reducing the amount of greenhouse gases we belch into the atmosphere, think again. 

Concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide - three of the main greenhouse gases, rose even faster than in 2022, according to the World Meteorological Organization

 As the Washington Post reports: 

 Concentrations of carbon dioxide - the most important driver of global warming - are now growing faster than at any time since our species evolved, according to the World Meteorological Organizations' annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. The increase can be traced back to stubbornly high rates of fossil fuel consumption, the report said, as well as ecosystems that are becoming more likely to produce emissions and potentially less capable of absorbing excess carbon."

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere last year was a little over 420 parts per million, a level Earth hasn't experienced since the Pliocene Epoch, which was more than three million years ago. You missed that era because human beings didn't exist yet. But at that time, scientists estimate the world was about five degrees warmer than it is now and sea levels were 30 to 60 feet higher than they are now. 

Most of the extra carbon dioxide that accumulated in the atmosphere last year is from us burning coal, oil and gas, like we have since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Carbon dioxide started to increase with that Industrial Revolution and has accelerated since. 

But there might be something called a positive feedback loop increasingly adding to the equation. That's when a trend - climate change in this instance - gets reinforced and boosted by that very same phenomenon. 

Wildfires boosted by climate change also added extra carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The amount of this gas increased by 2.3 parts per million in 2023 the twelfth year in a row that CO2 went up by more than two parts per million.

This feedback loop also involved other greenhouse gases as well 

The WMO said atmospheric levels of carbon monoxide and methane both went up sharply last year. 

The spike in carbon monoxide was the largest yet observed. Most of that comes from wildfires, as burning trees release this chemical into the air. Global carbon emissions from forest fires were 16 percent above average during the 2023-24 fire season. 

A large share of that probably came from Canada, which had by far its worst fire season on record in 2023 with 37 million acres burned. 

Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Methane emissions are also increasing, too.

Those surging methane levels are partly due to bacteria living in landfills and from cows.  A lot of methane comes from wetlands.  It turns out this is a feedback loop. Methane helps warm the atmosphere. Then, a toastier atmosphere allows wetland to increase their methane emissions.

And on and on it goes. 

Thawing Arctic permafrost might well be adding extra methane to the atmosphere. Another example of global warming creating even more global warming. 

The only vague bright spot regarding methane is that 2023 emissions were a wee bit smaller than 2022.

The environment also takes up carbon, removing it from the atmosphere, so that's a good thing. However, there's bad news on this one, too. Per the Washington Post:

"Meanwhile the net amount of carbon taken up by ecosystems last year was about 28 percent lower than in 2021 and 2022, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Monitoring Laboratory. This decline may be in part because of 2023's record high temperatures, which are known to stress plants and cut into ecosystems' ability to serve as a carbon sink."

Since 2024 is virtually guaranteed to be even hotter than 2023, this trend will likely continue.  

Given the political climate, I don't see any slowing of greenhouse emissions anytime soon. So the world will keep getting hotter and hotter.