Hurricane Rafael Turns Out To Be Another Over-Performer, Indirect Effects Flooding Georgia

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Rafael bearing down
on western Cuba today. It'll cause big trouble in
Cuba, but the storm's future is uncertain after that. 

 Late season Hurricane Rafael is now bearing down on western Cuba, and like several other storms in this weird hurricane season, Rafael is turning out to be an over-performer. 

Top sustained winds with Rafael had increased to 110 mph by late this morning,  and were expected to increase further by the time it reaches landfall in western Cuba later today.   

Rafael rapidly strengthened overnight, a habit of several hurricanes this year. Think Beryl, Helene, Milton as examples. 

Water in the western Caribbean Sea is unusually warm, even by their standards, probably thanks in part to climate change. So we have another strong one. 

Rafael will probably be what is considered a major hurricane later today, which is one with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.

Rafael will weaken slightly as it passes over Cuba, but will still be a pretty impressive hurricane once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.

From there, the future of Rafael gets more uncertain, but the trends might well be good for the United States.

I think.

Originally, Rafael the thinking among many forecasters is that Rafael would continue to head north while weakening over dry air and increasing upper level winds. That would make Rafael a "mere" tropical storm at landfall in the United States.

Troublesome, but not another Helene or Milton.

The forecast now is shifting. Forecasters had wondered for days if a strong ridge of high pressure to the north would steer Rafael westward, and that's looking more likely.  That would put Rafael over warmer water and less disruptive upper level winds than if it headed north. The result is Rafael would last longer as a hurricane and only slowly weaken.

But it would also avoid a United States landfall. 

The future of Rafael beyond about Friday is really uncertain. Hopefully, it will die a slow death over the western Gulf of Mexico, but we don't really know that for sure yet. 

GEORGIA

Well to the northeast of Rafael, we have another heavy rain and flood situation, this time in parts of Georgia and South Carolina. 

You might remember in the couple of days leading up to Hurricane Helene, torrential rains fell in western North Carolina.  So when the torrents with the actual hurricane hit that region, cataclysmic, deadly floods resulted.

The rains before Helene up in North Carolina were known as a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE.  These heavy rains often set up hundreds of miles north of a hurricane, and can themselves cause serious flooding. 

Or, they can set the stage for catastrophic flooding when the hurricane actually arrives, like in the case of Helene.

This time, a sort of PRE event is setting up in Georgia. Moisture streaming north from Hurricane Rafael is starting to pool in Georgia, which should unleash torrential rains today and tonight. 

A good six inches or more of rain could fell across central Georgia and southwestern South Carolina through tonight. It actually hasn't rained much down there lately, and you'd think that would limit the flooding a bit.

But the dryness has made the hard Georgia clay even harder, so the water will run off more easily into creeks and rivers, raising the flash flood risk.

The great news is that Hurricane Rafael, as noted, is not heading toward anything close to Georgia. So this won't be a case of a flood made exponentially worse by an arriving hurricane, since such a storm isn't heading toward the Southeast. 

Wildfires On Both Coasts As Some Eastern Cities Endure Longest Dry Spell On Record

Southern Californians are hoping they don't see scenes
like this today, but there's an especially high risk of
very fast, scary, big wildfires in the region today.
This is a photo of a wildfire along the 405 six years ago.

 Parts  of the West and East coasts of the United States are playing with fire today. 

And I'm not talking about the political situation. 

The danger of actual wildfires roars back to life in the two American locations today.

THE WEST

The focus out west is on heavily populated Orange, Santa Barbara Ventura and northern Los Angeles counties. 

Intense, dry Santa Ana winds are blowing today and should really howl later today, with wind gusts to at least 75 mph in some areas. The relative humidity should fall into the the arid, static electricity zone of single digits to low teens. 

The intense winds and extreme low humidity should last well into Thursday. 

The fire risk in southern Californian is considered the worst in at least four years. Today's NOAA Fire Weather Outlook has an "extremely critical fire risk" in parts of southern California, the first time in four years that dire alert has been issued for that region. 

The most intense risk includes cities like Oxnard, Santa Clarita, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley and Camarillo, with a combined population of almost 1.2 million.

A nearly as high a risk for volatile, fast-spreading firestorms has put another 10 million southern Californians under the gun today. 

 The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles has declared this a rare particularly dangerous situation. They wrote in this morning's forecast discussion:

"These are Extremely Critical and highly volatile conditions. Any new fires in the Red Flag Warning area - and especially the PDS Red Flag Warning area - will have rapid fire spread, extreme fire behavior and long range spotting."

Under these conditions, there will be little if any time for people to get out of the way if a fire starts.  People fleeing from those thousands of houses along those narrow canyon roads will quickly gum up traffic, potentially trapping people in deadly firestorms.  

The strong winds are sure to topple some trees and power lines. The fallen power lines can easily spark these dangerous wildfires. Pacific Gas and Electric is considering shutting off power to some areas to prevent fires from starting this way. 

Then there's the careless, the nut jobs and criminals who might think it's fun to start a cataclysmic fire. That's why the region is nervous. 

Strong, dry winds in northern California today have that part of the state also under alert for fast-spreading, dangerous wildfires. 

A huge area, including the San Francisco Bay area all the way to the Central Valley is under alert.   The highest risk seems to be in Napa and Sonoma counties. 

THE EAST

Though the fire situation isn't as dire or as potentially deadly in the eastern United States, it's been a much longer slog with fires in this neck of the woods. There's been various peaks and valleys in how serious the fire danger is amid an ongoing drought. 

Today represents a peak. Fires are ongoing in southern New England, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, and those could worsen today. A large wildfire is burning near the Lehigh Gap in Pennsylvania, for example. 

Record warmth is again embracing much of the East. In much of the region, strong, dry west winds would fan the flames. A red flag warning for fire danger is in effect for the three southern New England States. 

The dryness is getting ridiculous. Philadelphia is still experiencing its longest stretch without rain, with 38 consecutive days without measurable precipitation and counting. Showers are unlikely there until Sunday night. 

Atlantic City, New Jersey and Washington, DC will likely break their records for longest rainless streak today, each enduring 35 consecutive days so far without measurable rain. 

Here in Vermont, bits of rain especially in the north have helped tamp down the fire danger somewhat. Today, southern parts of the state are have a high risk of forest fires, while it's a moderate risk north. Light rain showers should come through this morning in the northern  half of the state will help, but won't be enough to prevent dry conditions and a fire danger from returning tomorrow into Sunday.  

National Election Day Weather: Some Trouble Spots, But Mostly Smooth Sailing

Today's National Weather Service hazards map
doesn't have all that many issues for people heading
to the polls. The red in California is fire hazards.
The green and dark red in Missouri and Arkansas
are floods. Parts of the Rockies are having winter weather.

 As I noted in a post earlier today, here in Vermont it's smooth weather sailing for those going to the polls today. 

In the United States as a whole, there are weather trouble spots, as there always are, but it's mostly not terrible.

The presidential election hinges really on swing states that we've heard about ad nauseum.  Those include Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and maybe Georgia and North Carolina.

None of those states face any really remarkable or terribly hazardous weather today, so I don't think weather will affect turnout there one way or another. Besides, a lot of people in those states have already voted, so they won't even have to step out the door today. 

Michigan and Wisconsin look pretty rainy today, but people should be able to handle that. Western North Carolina is still trying to claw their way back from Hurricane Helene.  Early voting in counties hit hard by the hurricane has been pretty strong, which suggests the disaster won't hurt turnout too much in North Carolina.

It's actually cool for the season in Nevada and Arizona, which is a huge shift from the otherwise hot year they've had so far. So no wilting in 100 degree heat to vote there, thank goodness. 

Most of Pennsylvania looks sunny and warm today so no issues there. 

 There are weather trouble spots today in the United States.

 Parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri are still trying to recover from severe weather and flooding yesterday, so I imagine some polling places might be challenged by power outages, blocked roads and damaged neighborhood. 

Quite a bit of flash flooding was going on in parts of Arkansas and Missouri this morning. Parts of Hawaii are dealing with floods, too.

In several spots in the Rocky Mountains, snow and strong winds are messing up travel and making some roads hazardous. 

California, meanwhile, is bracing for a potential outbreak of wildfires today and especially tomorrow.

Overall, though, it's a rather calm Election Day, at least in terms of weather across the United States. Let's hope everything else stays calm.  Stay tuned!

Election Day: No Weather Excuses Here In Vermont, You Gotta Vote

If you're looking for an excuse not to vote today in
Vermont, the weather isn't it. You can't ask for
more favorable weather to get to the polls. 

 I rarely hear people say or at least admit they're not going to go out and vote because the weather is too lousy. 

People usually trundle off to the polls no matter the conditions outside.  Vermont weather can often be pretty inconvenient in early November when it's election time. You can get snow, ice, wind and cold. 

This is not one of those years. 

If you haven't already voted, the trip to the polls will be a breeze. Literally. Yes, the wind will blow at a fairly decent clip, but nothing scary. It's going to be toasty warm for November, with highs way up in the 60s, which is far warmer than normal for this time of year. It's not going to rain, except maybe for an isolated sprinkle up by the Canadian border.

You might need to bring your sunglasses. That's about it. Whether you have to walk, drive, bike or hop, skip and jump to get to your local election site, it's clear sailing today. 

So no excuses! Go out and vote if you have not done so yet.

This Evening

Tonight the tense national vote count begins. Peoples stomachs are in knots as we await the results, which might not come tonight or even tomorrow or the next day. We shall see. 

It's understandable if you'll need to go outside for some air to take a break from the news this evening. Even here, Ma Nature has got your back. 

It's going to be exceptionally, weirdly balmy outside tonight. Temperatures in warmer, broader valleys will probably never drop below 60 degrees overnight. That's more typical of summer, not November. So take a break. Go for a walk. Breathe the warm evening air tonight to bring your blood pressure down. 

The Outlook

No matter who wins the election, the weather of course will go on. Wednesday, election hangover day, will feature exceptional warmth for November, as we might actually see some late season 70 degree readings during the afternoon.

For comparison, normal highs this time of year are barely in the low 50s. A cold front might kick off some light showers, but don't hold your breath for any decent rains. 

Temperatures will settle back into the seasonable upper 40s and 50s Thursday through the weekend. 

Despite some light showers north Monday and those expected sprinkles Wednesday, the fire danger here in Vermont and in the rest of the Northeast is going to remain high through the week and into the weekend. 

So no setting off fireworks if your favorite candidate wins. Remember, there's a burn ban in Vermont at least through November 11. 

If you're looking for some decent rains - and many of us are at this point, we have an uncertain shot at it later Sunday and Sunday night. 

A middling size storm, possibly bolstered by a little moisture from Tropical Storm Rafael, might, maybe give us a decent but not huge rain storm.  We'll keep an eye on that and hope for the best. 

Zillow Will Show Climate Change Risk In Home Listings

Zillow is about to add climate change risks to their
 extensive online home buyer site. 

 Zillow, that  ubiquitous real estate site that probably now displays every house in the world, and probably some on Pluto, will give climate change risks to all their listings.  

According to Zillow: 

"Zillow is introducing climate risk data, provided by First Street, the standard for climate risk financial modeling, on for-sale property listings across the U.S.  Home shopper will gain insights into five key risks - flood, wildfire, wind, heat and air quality - directly from listing pages, complete with risk scores, interactive maps and insurance requirements."

To get their hands on the climate risk data, Zillow partnered with an outfit called First Street, which specializes in climate risk financial modeling. 

It turns out, quite a few properties are not in great spots if you're worried about climate change disasters. 

As the Verge reports:

"In August, 16.7 percent of new listings on Zillow were at 'major risk of wildfire' while 12.8 percent had a major risk of flooding, says the company. To make potential homeowners aware of those risks, Zillows search map will be updated with color-coded highlights indicating which areas are likely to be affected by those five key risks, with each one having its own color scale to indicate the potential severity."

First Street offers an example of how the Zillow climate listings might be helpful:

About 78 percent of homes flooded by Hurricane Debby this summer were in spots where flood insurance isn't mandatory. However, 85 percent of them would have been flagged with insurance recommendations in Zillow's new climate risk listings. 

Zillow might have a willing market for this climate information.  A 2023 survey conducted by Zillow indicated eighty percent of buyers now consider climate risks when shopping for a home. 

While Zillow's climate risk information might be helpful, and First Street is a reputable and expert data company, judging risks like this still falls short of perfection. Per the Washington Post:

"Climate risk modeling experts are still developing the best possible way to measure the probability of flooding, fires and other natural disasters in any given area, notes Jesse Keenan, a professor of sustainable real estate and urban planning at Tulane University. 

The data provided from consumer-facing models can be 'uneven' depending on where a person is house hunting, because some risks have been studies more extensively in certain regions than in others, he said."

For most of us, buying a home is one of the biggest investments, if not the biggest investment we'll make in our lifetimes. We want to get it right. Climate change is one way the investment can go south in a hurry. 

So it's good that there are at least efforts to inform potential homebuyers. 

The climate information on Zillow's web site and on the iOS app should be available by the end of this year. It'll be on Android sometime next year. 

 

Oklahoma Continues To Have An Extremely Rough Autumn. Today Will Be Third Day In Row With Tornadoes

Huge board pierced this car in this weekend's 
Oklahoma tornadoes. Twisters can fling things quite a
ways, as was the case here. Notice the lack of 
damage in the background, this board was ejected
some distance from the tornado.

Saturday night and early Sunday, Oklahoma endured a series of intensely destructive tornadoes.

Sunday and Sunday night, a new round of tornado warnings blared across the state amid clusters of severe thunderstorms and flooding downpours. 

'

An even more widespread outbreak of tornadoes and severe weather seems likely today in Oklahoma, northern Texas and western Arkansas. 

The tornadoes early Sunday focused on the southeastern part of the Oklahoma City metro area, hitting Newcastle, Moore, Valley Brook and Hurrah.  You might recognize a couple of those towns as seemingly always being hit by tornadoes, so I guess it happened again. 

This time, eleven people were taken to hospitals with tornado-related injuries. Dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed.  Other storms produced damaging straight line winds and flash flooding. 

Sunday afternoon, tornado warnings blared around Oklahoma City again, as severe thunderstorms and additional flash flooding. More than four inches of rain poured down on Oklahoma City Saturday night and Sunday. 

Today, if anything looks potentially worse.  The area under the gun for severe weather is more widespread than it has been for the past two. The atmospheric at least as of this morning look favorable for a variety of hazards including tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, intense straight line winds, large hail and flash flooding.

In anticipation of the bad weather, dozens of Oklahoma schools and some colleges have canceled classes today. Oklahoma Municipal Court has also canceled sessions today. 

Already, this morning and early afternoon, there's been a couple of tornado warnings in Oklahoma, and that's ahead of the main show expected this afternoon and evening. 

Tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreaks are usually creatures of the spring and summer. Strong storm systems combined with strong daytime heating from the sun combine to create those big storms in the spring.

However, there's sometimes a smaller second season in the fall.  The sun's heating is pretty lame this time of year. But storm systems are stronger this time of year than in the summer. That strength  can overcome the weak daytime heating to produce dangerously stormy weather. 

What makes this situation unusual is that the rough weather has been sitting over or near Oklahoma for three days, if you count today. 

Usually, autumn storms that produce severe storms and tornadoes are in and out quickly. You get a  round of damaging storms on one day, and the next that storm system is hundreds of miles to the east. 

This storm will finally move on tonight and weaken as it moves east, greatly diminishing the severe storm and tornado threat 

This time is different. 

Less than 24 hours after tornadoes in Oklahoma metro area, mid-afternoon severe t-storm warnings: 

 

Vermont Week Ahead: More Big, Weird Temperature Swings, Lack Of Rain Continues.

Late autumn light on a bright and chilly late afternoon
Sunday in St. Albans, Vermont. Another big warm
 up is on the way, though. 

As we get set for the week in  Vermont, which I hear also includes some sort of election, the weather is going to be all over the place. 

Again.

It's already been weird. We had those hottest for so late in the season record highs on Halloween. On November 1, more record highs before dawn, and the afternoon turned out chilly. 

Here in St. Albans on Saturday afternoon, just 48 hours after it was in the upper 70s, it snowed briefly. 

In Burlington, thew low temperature Sunday morning was 29 degrees, the coldest temperature so far this autumn.

The only remarkable thing about that is how mild that coldest so far reading is. Especially if you consider the normal low is in the mid 30s and record lows in Burlington this time of year are in the teens. 

This week, the temperature roller coaster continues, with precious little rain as our long dry spell continues. 

Today

A warm front is approaching, so clouds will be increasing. 

Here's a first in the season alert:  There could be a patch or two of light freezing rain or sleet in a couple spots early this morning. Mostly in northern New York, but there could be isolated instances in northern Vermont.

It won't last long or be widespread.  But it's a here we go again moment, huh?

This afternoon won't be much warmer than Sunday ahead of this front, with highs reaching the 40s. Maybe 50 in the warm spots. Gusty south winds this afternoon could increase the fire danger, especially in southern Vermont where absolutely no precipitation is forecast. The forest fire danger in Vermont is listed as very high today, except "just" high up in the Northeast Kingdom, where they might get those sprinkles. 

Tonight, the temperature won't fall, and might even rise a bit overnight. 

A few showers might break out Monday night with the warm front, but they won't amount to much if they happen at all. Southern Vermont will again probably stay dry, the north might get vaguely damp. 

Tuesday

Election day and night will be weird for a whole bunch of reasons, as you can imagine. But that will include Vermont weather. 

 Temperatures will soar once again to frankly weird levels. Not like Halloween, but still. By afternoon, many of us will be in the 60s again. Maybe near 70 in a few spots if the sun shines a fair amount. 

Then it gets weirder Tuesday night. Many places, especially in western Vermont, will have another oddly balmy, summer-like night. Temperatures might  fail to drop below 60 degrees in some towns. Probably Burlington will be one of them. 

Wednesday

You'd think that the extreme warmth of Tuesday night would set us up for insanely warm temperatures Wednesday. It will be toasty, with some us making it to the low 70s. That is indeed pretty insane for November 6. 

But it will also be falling on the anniversary of one of increasingly bizarro warm spells in the age of climate change. On November 6, 2022, we had our warmest November day on record, making it to 76 degrees in Burlington. The low temperature that day was a July-like 62 degrees.

We probably won't be able to compete with that. Besides, a cold front will be coming through, probably in the afternoon, to keep temperatures ever so slightly in check. Depending on the timing of this front, temperatures might start falling back in the afternoon.

Once again, this cold front looks like it won't have much rain along it. This despite some strangely humid air for this time of year. The atmospheric dynamics aren't there. We just can't catch a break. There could be a tenth of an inch of rain north, and once again, probably nothing south.

For comparison, when the November 2022, heat wave began to break late on the sixth that year, downpours deposited a very nice 0.72 inches of rain on the Champlain Valley. Parts of Franklin and northern Chittenden County got two inches of rain in that episode. Not this year, I'm afraid.

Thursday and Beyond

Temperatures once again head downhill for the end of the week, but signs point to a cool down not a steep as the one we had this weekend. Highs would be in the upper 40s and 50s, which is near to a little bit above normal for this time of year. 

The air by the end of the week will be dry. The ground will be dry. The wind will be dry. And stiff at times. So, we'll have to worry about forest and brush fires again. 

The Long Haul

Once we get beyond five days, forecasts get less accurate. But NOAA's extended forecast that runs to November 17 continues to lean heavily toward warmer than normal temperatures through the middle of the month. 

Maybe not every day will be warm, but the odds are strongly tilted toward most days being, well, not winter..

Those extended forecasts lean slightly toward somewhat wetter weather by the middle of the month, but forecasters are hedging their bets on that one.