Very Scary Storm Day Underway For Large Parts Of Nation, Here In Vermont, Some Trouble Too

A severe weather outbreak with the risk of strong 
tornadoes is in the cards today. The area in pink and
dark red is the riskiest area. The same areas under
the tornado danger will also face severe flooding
this week. 

Today and the next few days will be among the most dangerous and potentially deadly weather days the United States has had all year.  

Up here in Vermont, things aren't nearly that dire, but we will have our own share of weather trouble. 

I'll start things off with how bad the national weather situation is, then get into what we will deal with in the Green Mountain State. 

Spoiler: Us Vermonters should consider ourselves damn lucky compared to many other areas of the U.S.

NATIONAL DANGER

When I opened the National Weather Service home page this  morning, the U.S. map already looked scary.

A tornado watch was already in effect in parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas, with a tornado warning or two thrown in. Flood watches covered a large area of the Midwest and South.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories stretched from  North Dakota, through the northern Great Lakes to northern New York and northern New England. 

This was just the beginning. Things will get a lot worse today. And stay really bad the rest of the week.

Tornadoes

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had declared a relatively rare high risk severe weather and tornado danger zone in the area where Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois come together.  This is an area with Memphis pretty much at the center A large substantial risk zones surrounded that area 

"Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3 plus tornadoes appear likely," the Storm Prediction Center wrote this morning. 

It's so bad that if I lived in a mobile home or other unsubstantial structure, I'd leave now before there are any watches or warnings. People in this area better be ready to get to their tornado shelters pretty damn quickly this afternoon and evening 

The very same region most at risk for destructive tornadoes today is also the epicenter of a terribly high risk of catastrophic deadly flooding over the next few day.

Extreme Floods 

Weather fronts associated with today's tornadoes will stall near the region until at least Saturday. Daily rainfall in a broad area centered near Memphis will range from three to six inches and possibly more in some spots. 

By tomorrow, another rare high risk zone has been declared in Memphis and the surrounding adjacent states: This is a high risk zone for flooding, issued by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. This means that terrible damage is pretty much inevitable. Even places that have never flooded before are at risk for inundation. 

The National Weather Service office in Memphis is already calling this a "historical rainfall event."

I brought up this flood risk in a post yesterday. If anything, expected rainfall totals might even go a bit higher than the foot or more I mentioned in the previous post.  This will be an ongoing thing starting today and going into next week. 

Even after the rain stops by Sunday, rivers in the region will be building toward potential record crests.

If possible, people who live in low lying areas in broad zone from roughly near Little Rock, Arkansas to Cincinnati, Ohio should be getting ready to leave, and if possible, moving possessions out. 

This whole thing will probably be yet another weather disaster costing $1 billion or more. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The National Weather Service ice forecast map shows
widespread ice in central and eastern Vermont. It
won't be enough to cause widespread power outages
but will cause some icy road conditions. 

Unlike all those other areas, Vermont is not headed toward a full-fledged disaster,  But there are several things that will keep us on our toes the next few days.

We've got snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, high winds, quick temperature changes and even thunder to contend with.  

The winter weather advisory that was in effect for just the Northeast Kingdom has now been expanded to include all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley and the western half of Rutland County. 

It'll cloud up pretty quickly today. Though temperatures will get well above freezing today, they'll crash temporarily with the onset of precipitation toward dark. So, we'll get a burst of snow this evening and tonight. 

Even in those areas with no winter weather advisory, that burst of snow and sleet overnight will make the roads quickly get slush and snow covered and slippery overnight. 

The Champlain Valley in particular is in for a noisy overnight and early morning. The snow should go over to rain after leaving maybe a dusting to 1.5 inches of snow. But the winds will really pick up.

A wind advisory has been posted for overnight in much of the Champlain Valley as gusts could go as high as 55 mph in hours before dawn. That could be enough for a few branches to come down, and maybe a couple power lines, too.  

During all that wind, the rain could come down pretty heavily at times and some rumbles of thunder could mix in with all this. 

Meanwhile, in eastern Vermont, the warmer air will have a harder time moving in.  The initial burst of snow will give way to another batch of freezing rain overnight and early Thursday. Between the initial wet snow, the freezing rain and some winds, there might be isolated power outages there, too, but nothing widespread. 

The main threat through the early part of the Thursday morning commute will be icy roads. 

The rain should taper off in the morning as temperatures rocket upward into the 50s east, 60s west during the day. The afternoon shouldn't actually be all that bad. 

Except: That wind advisory in especially the northern Champlain Valley will still be in effect. We expect another burst of winds, this time from the west, in the late afternoon and evening. That could cause a slight smattering of new power outages and a few more downed tree branches.

NEXT STORM

Friday looks nice, then the weekend, not so much. We'll get the tail end of that horrible flood I mentioned that's going to take place in the mid-South this weekend. 

No flooding for us, but the remnants of that system will swing several waves of low pressure our way. That'll be enough to set off some occasional rain all weekend. 

There could be a little snow and sleet at the onset of the new precipitation on Saturday, but this should be mostly rain.  It doesn't look like it will rain hard enough to set off any flooding worries. 

Beyond Sunday, the weather will turn colder.   Hard to say if there will be much precipitation in that colder air, but we'll at least see some snow showers, or cold rain showers.  There's a slight chance a stronger storm or two could form along the coast to bring extra snow during next week, but so far, the risk of that happening looks pretty damn low, which is great news. 

 

Yes, More Vermont Winter Weather On The Way

Yep! Another ice forecast map from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington. This time, at least
the ice shouldn't be thick enough to cause more than a
few widely scattered power outages in the NEK

 Just a quick update this evening to acknowledge that yes, there's another winter weather advisory up for parts of Vermont. 

I'll keep it brief this evening. 

That new storm will swing a batch of snow into most of Vermont Wednesday evening. That will quickly go over the freezing rain again overnight. 

In most of southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley, the freezing rain won't last all that long as temperatures overnight keep warming up. The freezing rain might not even materialize in some spots in the Champlain Valley. 

The Northeast Kingdom will hold on to the cold air, though, so the freezing rain could keep going all night and into early Thursday. At the very least the roads up that way will be nasty in many spots overnight Wednesday and for the early morning commute. 

The worst hit places could accumulate up to a quarter inch of ice. That might set off some isolated tree damage and widely scattered power outages, but nothing like parts of central and southern Vermont endured over the weekend. 

Everybody will be in the rain Thursday, though that rain will be tapering off through the morning. It will be another warm day, kind of like how Monday quickly warmed up.

This storm is looking pretty windy, too.  So far there's no wind advisories up, but it could get pretty gusty overnight Wednesday.  Forecasters are watching for the possibility of even strong southwest to west winds Thursday afternoon. That's when you might see possible wind advisories popping up. 

The storm, though on the strong side, is moving fast, so it won't have a chance to dump a ridiculous amount of precipitation on us. Rainfall won't be enough to cause any flooding issues. 

Unlike last night, there won't be an immediate rush of cold air behind the storm. Friday actually looks nice and springlike. There will be at least some sun and temperatures should reach the 50s. 

The upcoming weekend looks rainy, with a slight chance of - UGH - maybe a little ice in some spots. 

I'll have much more on this tomorrow morning, but there's your update for now.

Yet Another Big Flood Disaster Looms In Kentucky, Surrounding Areas This Week

You're going to be reading about another big, deadly U.S. weather disaster this week. 

Precipitation forecast for the next seven days in the
U.S. That huge blob in the middle is where flooding
is expected this week, Area in brown and yellow in
the middle are where are least seven inches and a much
a 15 inches is expected by Sunday.

Catastrophic flooding hit areas of Kentucky and surrounding areas back in February, and some of the same areas are in for another big flood calamity this week. 

Torrential rains are in the forecast for the same general area daily Wednesday through Thursday.  Some areas in a zone from Arkansas to Kentucky could see more than a foot of rain. 

Even worse, at least part of the flood event will be accompanied by severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Some of those tornadoes could be intense and long lasting. 

THE TORNADOES

The focus tonight is mostly on Kansas and Oklahoma and parts of western Missouri. This area in the heart of tornado alley is at risk of tornadoes from now well into tonight. 

On Wednesday, the severe weather will become much more widespread,. running from the southern Great Lakes all the way down to northeastern Texas. 

The biggest threat for strong tornadoes will run from Arkansas up through the Memphis area and to southern Illinois, Indiana and eastern Kentucky.  Those are the precise areas that will probably suffer the worst flooding in the coming days. 

The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will continue daily beyond that Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 

By the way it has already been a stormy few days. At least 29 tornadoes have been counted so far from Sunday and Monday, mostly in the Midwest, along with hundreds of reports of strong thunderstorm winds and large hail 

THE FLOODING

A weather front will essentially stall in the mid-South as huge amounts of moisture feed into the system from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  Waters there are warmer than average, which means evaporation is higher. That means incredible amounts of moisture can be transported to places like Memphis and Jonesboro, Arkansas, which will unleash incredible torrents

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center:

"This setup is shaping up to be a more extreme flooding scenario considering the multi-day prospects and forecasted.....rainfall totals reach 10-15+ inches in the hardest hit locations."

Local weather offices in the region are warning people of a "generational" flood with record amounts of rain and record high waters. Intense downpours will create instant flash floods.  

This will be another tragic event in a place in the U.S. that doesn't need more of this crap. 

Vermont March Weather: Warm And Weird

A warm March sent daffodil shoots growing much
earlier than normal in Vermont this year. This new
spring greenery had to endure occasional wintry
setbacks, as seen here on March 21. That state
of affairs will continue into April. 

 Well, we got through another month, so it's time to look back at our overall Vermont weather in March, which, as you might have noticed was weird. And warm. 

MARCH TEMPERATURES

Burlington came in with a mean temperature for the month of 38.0 degrees. That puts us in a three way tie with 2010 and 1902 for the sixth warmest March on record. 

It's also the sixth time in a year a month in Burlington was in the top ten warmest list. 

This March was even warmer than the one a year ago, in 2024 which was merely the seventh warmest on record. Yeah, we've had a lot of hot Marches lately. A lot of hot months and years, actually, thanks to climate change. 

The entire rest of Vermont was much warmer than average in March, too. But figures are incomplete, as I noticed missing data on a few days from several of our regular long standing weather stations like Rutland and St. Johnsbury. 

The warmest March day in Burlington was 72 on the 19th and 20th.  This makes March, 2025 one of only 11 Marches in the past 140 years or so to get that warm.  It was not close to the hottest March day on record, though. It was 84 degrees in both March, 1946 and March, 1998.

Rapid snowmelt and some rain led to widespread, but minor flooding across Vermont around St. Patrick's Day. 

You could see the effects of such a mild March by the unusually early signs of spring. Crocuses were blooming by mid-month in a few locations. Green daffodil shoots poked up all through the second half of the month. The sound of returning red wing blackbirds filled the air in marshy areas way earlier in the month than usual. I even had a report of two of people in southern Vermont hearing spring peepers yesterday. That's really early for the season. 

Burlington had its final zero degree reading of the season on March 3. That meant nine days this past winter got to zero or below.  Historically we'd have roughly 20 or more such days per winter, so the downward trend in very cold days continues. 

MARCH PRECIPITATION

It was a little wetter than average virtually everywhere in Vermont in March, which is a good thing since we still have lingering effects from last autumn's drought. 

Precipitation wasn't overwhelming, though, as Burlington had 2.81 inches of rain and melted snow and ice. That's just a little over half an inch above average. By my count, Burlington had its 37th wettest March on record, so not all that impressive.

Precipitation around the state was similarly above average, but not to an extreme extent. 

Winter this March was notably absent until the end of the month. Early in the month, the summit of Mount Mansfield did have its highest snow depth since at least 2019.

But in most of Vermont aside from high elevations, very little snow fell into the end of the month. 

As we just saw, the last weekend of the month brought a big thump of five to nine inches of snow to the north, and a quite damaging ice storm to parts of central and southern Vermont.   

The snow and ice melted quickly during another very warm final day of March, though as of early yesterday, there was still 89 inches of snow near the Mount Mansfield summit. 

APRIL OUTLOOK

April is often regarded as a cruel month, as you think spring is coming, but you always end up getting slapped in the face with winter. 

That's no different this year. 

Today will be much colder than yesterday as many of us won't get out of the 30s. 

And, of course, Wednesday night, we're in for yet another round of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Though it won't be as bad as the last one, eastern Vermont in particular will likely see a glaze of ice, slick roads, and maybe an isolated power outage or two by early Thursday. 

The precipitation should change to rain on Thursday. 

Long range forecasts also call for mostly chillier than normal weather around here through at least the first half of April. We shall see. 

Even if it's a cool April, the forces of spring will win out. Normal temporaries rise rapidly. Today, the normal high temperature in Burlington is 48 degrees and the low is 30. By April 30, the normal high and low temperatures are 63 and 42 degrees.

You're going to see a much greener Vermont landscape by the end of the month compared to what it looks like now. 

Ominous Stat: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Way Under-Performed This Winter And Set A Bad Record

The winter "maximum" sea ice extent in the Arctic was
the lowest on record this year. That's an ominous sign for 
more climate change coming down the pike.

 It's official.

The extent of Arctic sea ice, which normally reaches its peak in March, was pretty pathetic this year. 

It's a sign climate change continues unabated, and it's a factor that could help accelerate the problem. 

First, the immediate issue at hand, per the Washington Post:

 "Just 5.53 million square miles of ice had formed as of March 22 this year - the smallest maximum extent in the 47-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Since then the ice has already begun to melt again."

WaPo goes on:

"The record comes age a grim time for ice in all corners of the globe. In Antarctica, which has historically been more isolated from the effects of human-causing warming, sea ice shrank this month to the second lowest extent on record.  Research published in the journal Nature in February found that Earth's glaciers are dwindling at an accelerating rate,"

Back up there in the Arctic, this year's maximum ice extent was 31,000 square miles smaller than the previous record. That 31,000 square miles is about the same size as South Carolina. 

The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the globe. This winter was a classic example. Some areas of the far north were as much as 22 degrees Fahrenheit above average, which helps explain why Arctic ice didn't freeze as it should have

When there's less sea ice, the Arctic can warm even faster. More ice means when the sun shines on those gleaming white surfaces, bouncing the sun's heat back up into space.

When there's blue open water instead of ice up there in the Arctic, the sun's warmth is absorbed by that water Or as WaPo explains:

"With so little sea ice in the Arctic this year, more sunlight will be able to reach the open ocean, which absorbs more than 90 percent of the radiation that hits it. This will further warm the region, accelerating ice melt and exposing even more water to the light."

That's known as a feedback loop. Arctic ice melts because of climate change. That allows more heat to come in, melting even more ice and accelerating climate change even more. 

As I always like to say, what goes on the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.  

Sure, the lack of ice makes the Arctic melt even faster, but the warming effect does to an extent spread all over the world. It would just make our recent spate of record and near record hot years just keep going and going, like some torrid, evil Energizer Bunny.  

A lack of ice in the Arctic won't in itself make sea levels rise. As you've probably heard me say before. If the ice cubes in your glass of gin and tonic melt, it won't make the glass overflow. But the Arctic heat that might last through the summer can bleed on over to the Greenland ice cap, which is above sea level. The more that ice cap melts, the higher sea levels go. 

One Last Round Of Rain With Our Vermont Storm As We Get Ready For Yet Another One

The Killington, Vermont Police Department posted
this photo of a downed utility pole and wires blocking
a road in the resort town after Sunday's ice storm. 

Today's Day 3 of our long Vermont storm that really started Friday night. 

The great news is today will be the easiest of the three days by far.  

We're still suffering the hangover from Sunday's ice. 

All night and into early this morning, the number of homes and businesses still without electricity in Vermont stayed stubbornly above 5,000, after peaking art around 10,000 yesterday. 

Bottom line: Today's not a perfect weather day of course, but those are kind of rare this time of year anyway. 

Temperatures are warming up, and we should make it into the 60s today for a brief break from our wintry mess.  

The remaining snow and ice from the weekend should disappear for most of us pretty quickly today, it it hasn't already. Here in St. Albans, we had about six inches of new snow Saturday morning. Less than 48 hours, when I got up this morning and looked out the window, you'd never we ever had any snow. 

There is a few changes to the forecast. For most of us, the expected line of showers should come through Vermont in the morning and early afternoon, though there might be some showers behind that line.  

Earlier, we thought the bulk of the showers would be later this afternoon, but things have sped up a bit. 

Our showers might be briefly heavy with a slight chance you'll hear a rumble of thunder or two. But any heavy rain won't last long in any one place.  

We should have a half inch or less of rain today. Between the lingering rain and the snow and ice melt, the rivers should rise, as we've been saying all along. But if any flooding happens, it will be minor. 

QUICK WINTER RETURN

What had been six inches of snow was seen rapidly
melting off my St. Albans, Vermont driveway 
Sunday afternoon as temperatures rose above 
freezing and rain continued. 

If you thought we were done with winter weather after this past weekend, think again.  First of all, our current storm's cold front will drop us below freezing by Tuesday morning, and most of us won't even make it to 40 degrees Tuesday afternoon. 

By Wednesday morning, most of us will be in the teens, and there could be some single number temperatures in the cold hollows.

Following that is our next storm. With the cold air lingering at first, another round of snow, sleet and freezing rain (sigh!) seems likely Wednesday night. 

The snow probably won't amount to much.  The freezing rain won't accumulate nearly as much ice as the last storm did, so we won't face power outages and tree damage again. 

But, if you're on the roads Wednesday night, you'll probably encounter crappy driving conditions. Things should go over to rain Thursday as we get another squirt of mild air. 

At least the next storm's effects won't be nearly as bad in Vermont as in other places. This next storm is forecast to produce another large severe storm and tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. 

This storm, and a weather front associated with this storm that is expected to stall, looks like it might cause another round of serious flooding in parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas.

Back here in Vermont, don't count on winter ending even after we get through Wednesday night's schmutz. Signs are pointing toward a week long spell of wintry cold and maybe occasional snow starting in about seven days from now. 

Those long range forecasts aren't always right, but the ones I've been seeing have been pretty consistent, so there's that.  

Ice Storm Pretty Much Over In Vermont, Temperatures To Bounce All Over The Place. Still A Minor Flood Risk

Chair lift at Killington Resort coated in ice
today. The resort had to close due to
damage from this morning's ice storm,
but is expected to reopen Monday. 

 As of late Sunday afternoon we can say Hurray!

That's because all winter weather warnings and advisories in Vermont have been dropped. 

Except for maybe some small isolated areas in eastern parts of the state, the freezing rain is over. It hasn't been a nice Sunday afternoon - raw, sometimes rainy, overcast and in the Champlain Valley getting a little windy. But the ice problem is over.

Except the cleanup of course.

It seems like Rutland and Windsor counties, and areas immediately to the north and south of those counties suffered the bulk of the ice issues.

The number of homes and businesses without power in Vermont held roughly steady in the 11,000 range from around 8:30 this morning to mid-afternoon, but were starting to decline late this afternoon, vtoutages.org indicated.

If I had to pick a town that suffered the worst, I'd say Killington. They still had the most outages of any community in Vermont

The gigantic Killington Resort was forced to shut down Sunday. Power was out at much of the resort. Trees along the roads leading to the resort  were collapsing, and blocking traffic. "Trees are continuing to fall around the mountain and trails are beginning to refreeze, creating unsafe conditions for guests and staff," the resort said in a statement. 

Killington expects to reopen for business tomorrow.  At least it will be warm for skiers.

TONIGHT/MONDAY

For most places, the temperature will actually slowly continue to warm overnight. We'll occasionally be harassed by showers, but they won't amount to much, really.

Monday continues to look quite mild, and windy in the Champlain Valley. Most of us valley dwellers should see temperatures reach the low to mid 60s, a huge change from this weekend. Most of the day will feature just scattered showers. 

During the mid to late afternoon a line or broken line of briefly heavy showers and even some thunderstorms will come through Vermont. (This will be the relatively harmless northern extension of a severe weather outbreak expected up and down the East Coast tomorrow).

Any heavy rainfall will be brief. We've already seen the heaviest precipitation with this storm, so we won't have much addition. However, between the melting snow and ice, plus whatever rain we get, I still expect minor flooding Monday and into Tuesday on some Vermont rivers, or at least something close to it. 

Don't worry about major flooding, though.

BEYOND MONDAY, NEW STORM?

We're still looking at a BIG temperature crash Monday night behind the cold front as lows get into the 20s and highs just make it into the 30s Tuesday. 

That sets the stage for the next storm, which frankly still looks similar to the one we had this weekend. 

Lingering cold air will mean the next storm Wednesday night. It's looking like we will once again start off with snow and freezing rain. Before you get too scared, it won't be as bad as this weekend. Probably enough to mess up the roads, but that's it. 

And it will quickly go over to rain by Thursday. 

There's still not a lot of details on the next storm to share. We'll get updates as we get closer.

But I will depress you with one other bit of news. Long range forecasts call for a series of sharp, wintry cold snaps here in Vermont during the first half of April. I hope that's wrong, but I'm throwing that out there!