Astoundingly Long, Intense Phoenix Heat Wave Ends, Meteorologists, Climatologists Agog

Phoenix, Arizona just came out of what was very likely
the most extreme, longest lasting heat wave relative to
average temperatures on record anywhere in the U.S.

The high temperature in Phoenix, Arizona reached 99 degrees on Tuesday, not a record high.

That ended an incredible streak of 21 consecutive days with record high temperatures in that city.  Such a long streak of daily record highs has never been seen before in any weather station with at least a few decades of data. Not even close.  

Meteorologists and climatologists were stunned by the length of this intense hot spell. The just ended hot spell is likely by far the most extreme heat wave relative to average temperatures on record anywhere in the U.S.

A streak like that had been considered impossible. As I noted in an October 5 post about the intense autumn heat wave in the Southwest, the longest consecutive day streak of record highs anywhere in the U.S. had been 14 days in Burlington, Iowa on July 4-17, 1936. Those were the famous old Dust Bowl days.  

The 117 degrees in Phoenix on September 28 was the hottest on record for that month. Setting a September record at the end of the month is even more incredible since you would be expecting the desert heat to be simmering down after Labor Day.

That's especially true since the 117 degree reading broke the old record for the month by nine degrees.  It's very rare for a monthly record to break an old record by more than two degrees. 

Phoenix also set a new record high for October on two days - the 1st and 6th with readings on both days of 113 degrees.  That also shattered the old monthly record by a huge margin of six degrees.

Until this year, it had never reached 110 degrees in Phoenix after September 19.  This year, it was at least 110 degrees on nine days after September 19, the most recent on October 7. 

Relief has come to Phoenix in the form of a pretty aggressive autumn chilly snap. The forecast high on Friday there is only 78 degrees, and showers were actually likely. Saturday looks even cooler, with highs in Phoenix only expected to reach the low to mid 70s.  

Saturday's expected high could threaten a record for the lowest maximum temperature for the date. So that's quite a turnaround. 

Temperatures are expected to rebound into the 90s in Phoenix next week, but at least it won't be in the 100s. again.  Normal highs in Phoenix this time of year are in the upper 80s. 

I'm sure the increase in development, pavement and concrete contributes to the increasing heat in Phoenix. But so does climate change. This heat wave was so far off the charts that observers are saying this would have been impossible without climate change. 

These heat waves are increasingly afflicting Phoenix as they are many other cities globally.  For instance, July, 2023 was the hottest month on record in Phoenix, July, 2024 was merely the second hottest. All of Phoenix's top five hottest Junes, Julys, Augusts and Septembers have occurred since 2003.

Records in Phoenix go back to 1895.  

Pretty Much Everybody Had A Freeze In Vermont This Morning; Gorgeous Weather Ensues

My first frosted over windshield of the season this
morning in St. Albans, Vermont. I'm getting a late start
today, so it will have melted by the time I leave the
house, so I won't have to find my ice scraper. 

 Unless you were right along the shores of Lake Champlain this morning, you had a frost and or freeze this morning in Vermont. 

Temperatures were amazingly uniform at dawn, with almost everyone somewhere between 25 and 31 degrees. 

Usually on calm, clear mornings, there's a wide range of temperatures, ranging from frigid in the cold hollows to fairly balmy in warmer banana belt towns.

But at 7 a.m. today, it was 26 degrees in perennial icebox Saranac Lake, New York, and only five degrees warmer at the "tropical" National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

The Burlington morning freeze today was right around nine days later than the average date of the first autumn freeze. Last year, the first freeze of season waited until October 31, which was the latest on record since weather records began at the South Burlington airport in 1941  

The prior record for latest freeze at the airport was on October 28, 2022, so we had a trend going there until this morning. (Asterisk: When weather records were kept at the warmer downtown Burlington location, the latest freeze was on November 1, 1920).

SUNSHINE, DAILY TEMPERATURE SWINGS

We're in for some fantastic weather for the next several days. I'm sure the freeze this morning knocked quite a few leaves off trees in parts of Vermont where they were on the cusp of going past peak foliage. But there is plenty of color to be found.

Low elevations are at or are approaching peak color so the sunny weather is well-timed.

You're going to notice wide daily swings in temperature from chilly mornings to mild afternoons for the next few days. 

Today will still be on the cool side despite the sun, rising only into the 50s, with some upper 40s in the coldest spots. 

If you managed to cover up and rescue your garden plants this morning, you'll need to do it all again tonight as temperatures are forecast to once again drop to near freezing in the majority of spots across the Green Mountain State.

But Friday afternoon, temperatures will rocket into the 60s, only to fall back into the 30s at night. Saturday gets way back up in the 60s again.

After that, it'll stay warm for the season until about Wednesday, and nights will turn a little warmer as well during the first part of next week. Temperatures will probably cool back off toward the second half of next week, but won't be unusually chilly for late October. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Update: As Freeze Looms, Deep Snow "Snoliage" Gorgeous, Tourists, Not So Much

Snoliage near Stowe, Vermont this morning. 

 As more reports came in from the mountains of Vermont and New York today, the snow amounts on the summits seemed more and more impressive. 

Especially for October. 

The summit of Jay Peak had a good foot of snow. At Underhill State Park, Vermont, at a 3,300 foot elevation on the upper slopes of Mount Mansfield, 11 inches was measured. Across the pond, at a spot very close to the summit of Whiteface Mountain, the snow was 15 inches deep.

Snow amounts diminished rapidly as you went downhill in elevation. But the snow extended down the slopes far enough to offer a treat to the leap peepers rampaging through Vermont. 

I headed up to Smuggler's Notch and Stowe this morning to check out the snoliage, and everything was predictably stunning with the colored leaves and white snow. There's video proof at the bottom of this post you can check out. 

OH, THOSE TOURISTS

Most of the tourists were happy and great, but some of them made it obvious why some Vermonters roll their eyes at out of state leaf peepers.

What the hell, the dumber variety of tourists give us all a bit of a bemused chuckle. 

There's plenty of pull-offs along Route 108 through Smugglers Notch to stop and take photos. Also the Smuggler's Notch and Stowe ski areas have large parking lots where you can stop, get out of your car and admire the mountains and snow and leaves around you.  

I had to shake my head and laugh, though at the behavior of some tourists. At no fewer than three entrances to large ski area parking lots, tourists pulled their vehicles over across the entrances so that nobody else could enter the parking lots - which each had room for at least 100 cars. 

Some people honked horns trying to get in, but the tourists who blocked the entrances pretended not to hear them.  

Snoliage near Smuggler's Notch, Vermont this morning. 

On a particularly winding part of Route 108 through the notch, somebody stopped in the middle of the road on a blind corner to take pictures. I stopped in time. 

The guy by the stopped SUV kept waving me to go around him, ignoring the fact that there was a line of traffic in the opposite lane coming through. What, he wanted to see a head on collision?

On another blind corner, another SUV parked in the middle of the opposite lane, facing the wrong way.  That held up about two dozen  cars while the two occupants of that stopped car frolicked in the snow on the side of the road. 

At another spot, a car with three young women got stuck in the snow in a pull-off.  Myself and three or four other men tried to help. There was only about three inches of slush beneath the car but whatevs. Her car had bald tires, but what the hell, we were up to the challenge of getting them out and on their way.

And a challenge it was!  We'd clear snow from around her tires, tell the woman to keep her wheels straight and then gradually hit the gas going backwards to get out. She repeatedly turned the wheel sharply and gunned it. 

So yeah, it took awhile. 

At one point, I cleared snow from around the tires with my bare hands, causing one of my fingers to bleed just a tiny bit. As we finally freed the car, I noticed a little of my blood was left on the hood of the car. I can't decide whether I hope the young women notice or don't notice.

Also, at a trailhead, I spotted a woman setting off on an apparent hike in shorts. It was about 35 degrees with a gusty winds. Hope she wasn't going far! 

But the vast majority of the tourists playing in the snow seemed happy, normal and considerate, so that was great. I got there early, and hightailed it out of the Stowe/Smugglers Notch area as traffic really began to pick up late in the morning. It must have been an absolute zoo there this afternoon. 

FROSTY NIGHT

The frost advisory in the Champlain Valley for tonight and early Thursday was upgraded to a freeze warning in most of that area, as temperatures are forecast to get to or a little below freezing. Finish your emergency frost harvest from your garden this evening.

That said, the frost and freeze is conditional on whether it clears up overnight. Clear, calm nights this time of year is how you get frosts and freezes. 

Dry air coming in from the northwest should clear up the thick, low clouds that were over much of Vermont late this afternoon. But there's a chance an inversion could keep them in place.  If that happens, it won't get as cold as forecast.

But if clouds keep your garden from turning into frozen mush tonight, you're not out of the woods. Sure,  it'll be a little warmer under sunshine Thursday and even warmer Friday. But the dry air coming in ensures clear, calm weather Thursday and Friday nights. That opens everyone up to more freezing temperatures, especially Thursday night. 

The literally bright side of all this is, with sunny skies tomorrow, the snow capped mountains and the fall foliage should continue to make the scenery absolutely sublime. 

Let's just hope the tourists behave. 

Video: Snoliage scenes around Stowe and Smugglers Notch, Vermont today. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that.

 

Pupdate: Owner Of Dog Abandoned Near Highway In Hurricane Faces Charges

The horrible person who allegedly abandoned this
dog tied to a fence near Tampa, Florida as
Hurricane Milton approached has been arrested.
The dog, as we noted last week, was rescued by
a Florida Highway Patrol Trooper.

 Remember that dog I wrote about recently that was abandoned near Interstate 75 outside of Tampa, Florida in floodwaters as Hurricane Milton approached?  

As we wrote, the dog was rescued. And there was the predictable outrage over this. Now, the person who allegedly left the pooch there to almost certainly die in the hurricane has been arrested.

The Tampa Bay Times tell us: 

Giovanny Aldama Garcia, 23 was booked into jail Monday on a charge of aggravated cruelty to animals, which is a felony. 

The Tampa Bay Times continues the story by telling us Garcia called an animal shelter in Hillsborough, County, Florida that he was the dog's owner but would give it up if someone would love and care for it.

Which is the opposite of what he did, but there you go.

Offices later talked to Garcia at his home in Ruskin, Florida, who said he had the dog since it was a puppy but could no longer care for it. 

That's when a normal person might turn the dog into a reputable animal shelter but that's not Garcia, apparently. 

Garcia said he was with this mother on Interstate 75 during the mass evacuation ahead of Hurricane Milton when his mother let the dog out of the car. The narrative doesn't say why, or details how it ended up tied to that fence in floodwater.

Apparently, Garcia saw social media posts about the dog's rescue and try to reclaim the pooch.

Not happening, by the way. 

Garcia will not be allowed to have the dog, which has since been renamed Trooper. A foster family is caring for Trooper for now, until he's ready for an adoption into a forever home. 

More details emerged over how the dog was found. He was tied to a fence quite a distance from the roadway, in a flooded low spot difficult for passing motorists to notice.

However, in rainy weather hours before ferocious Hurricane Milton arrived, an eagle-eyed woman in a car traveling on Interstate 75 that day spotted the dog and called police, the Tampa Bay Times reported.  

Florida Highway Patrol Trooper Orlando Morales drove to the area and initially couldn't see the dog. However, he began calling the dog over a portable speaker and the dog poked his head up above the brush. Rescue was at hand. 

Hillsborough County State Attorney Suzy Lopez said some crimes can get enhanced charges if they are committed during a state of emergency, as this case was. However, animal cruelty is not one of those crimes, and she urged the Florida legislature to change the law so enhanced charges could be filed if something like this ever happens again. 

Meanwhile, Garcia was released from jail Tuesday on $2,500 cash bond.  He could face up to five years in jail if found guilty. 

Pretty Impressive Snows On Vermont Mountain Peaks, Frost/Freeze Up Next

A traffic camera caught a motorist making their way
through a winter wonderland at around 7:15 this
morning along Route 242 near Westfield, Vermont.

While most of Vermont dealt with cold rain showers and maybe a few wet snowflakes overnight, the mountain summits really piled up the snow.  

SNOWFALL

I don't have too many specific reports yet, but the National Weather Service estimates a good six to nine inches of fresh summit atop peaks like Mount Mansfield and Jay. 

The stake near the top of Mount Mansfield had an accumulation of four inches before a round of occasionally heavy snow showers rolled through last evening. Video showed a very heavy snow squall amid fall foliage at the Bolton Valley Ski Area last night.  

Motorists traveling through high elevation roads like Sherburne Pass along Route 4 near Killington, Route 17 in Buels Gore and Routes 242 and 105 near Westfield and Jay Peak encountered winter driving conditions at times overnight. 

The snow had pretty much melted off those roads as of 8 a.m., so I don't anticipate travel trouble. 

Aside from a few more mountain snow flurries and valley sprinkles, the precipitation is pretty much done. It will remain mostly to completely cloudy north through the day. Some sun will break out south, but it will remain chilly.  

Most places will stay in the 40s, although a few spot 50 degree readings might show up in so-called "warmer" valleys.  That sets us up for probably the end of a prolonged growing season tonight. 

Still, today and tomorrow look like great days for some spoilage viewing, especially the first half of Thursday, when sunshine will light up the mountain snow before beginning to melt it.

FROST/FREEZE

Virtually all of Vermont will be near or below freezing overnight and early Thursday except maybe right near Lake Champlain. 

Despite some still-healthy outdoor plants in most of Vermont, you won't see any frost or freeze warnings in areas outside the Champlain Valley and valleys in the southern parts of the state.

That's because the National Weather Service doesn't issue frost and freeze advisories in areas where the growing season should have ended by now. For many, this first of the season upcoming cold night is coming quite a bit later in the autumn than usual. 

So, places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Morrisville, Stowe and everywhere else in northern Vermont will get below freezing tonight without those advisories.l 

A frost advisory IS in effect in the Champlain Valley as most places there should get pretty close to 32 degrees. Remember, you can get a frost if temperatures officially stay just above freezing.  On calm, clear nights, like what we anticipate the early morning hours of Thursday to be like, temperatures are usually measured five feet off the ground. It might be 33 or 34 at the thermometer, but at your feet, frost is forming on the grass.

In Rutland County, a freeze warning is up because there, temperatures are forecast to dip below 32 degrees. 

THE WARMUP

We are still anticipating a warm up starting a little bit Thursday afternoon and really hitting in earnest starting Friday. It's dry air, so nights will still be chilly and potentially frosty through Friday night and Saturday night. 

Days will warm up nicely into the 60s. By early next week, some low 70s seem like they will pop up. Indian Summer indeed.  It's all being caused by one big honking huge high pressure system that is initially bringing us the cold air but will move a little east and pull up some balmy air from the southwest by the weekend. 

This high pressure system will also bring us plenty of clear skies. During this time, it'll be worth it to take a look at the western sky at twilight, a little after sunset to catch a glimpse of comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, which should be visible for the next week or two in the evenings when it's not cloudy.  

Unfortunately we missed the best view of the comet because during these recent cloudy days, the moon didn't interfere with the view. A waxing moon in the coming days might wash out the light of the come some, making it a little harder to see.

The warm air is beginning to look like it might not last as long as originally anticipated, with a new cold front possible by Wednesday, But at least at this point, the air behind that front doesn't look super cold, so it will still be pretty nice. 

Pretty much no rain is in the forecast until at least Wednesday. So far, it looks like if it does end up raining with that anticipated old front next week, it won't amount to much at all.

A Fitting End: Hurricane Hunter's Ashes Spread Inside Hurricane Milton

A NOAA crew gathers to remember their colleague Peter
Dodge shortly after the hurricane hunter flight dropped
the ashes of Dodge into the eyewall of 
Hurricane Milton last Tuesday. 

 Forecasts in the days ahead of Hurricane Milton's landfall near Siesta Key, Florida last Wednesday evening were remarkably accurate. 

Landfall was only a dozen or so miles off from what the National Hurricane Center anticipated days earlier. They pretty much correctly predicted Hurricane Milton's rise to become a Category 5 monster. 

And they got the fact that although the winds diminished somewhat in the hours leading to landfall, the storm expanded, ensuring widespread destruction in Florida.

These great forecasts undoubtedly saved lives, as so many people fled vulnerable coastal communities.

A lot of the credit for these great forecasts are the hurricane hunters. They regularly fly missions into the heart of hurricanes, dropping meteorological instruments into the maelstroms to update clues as to what the dangerous storm might do next. 

So, we saw a fitting honor for Peter Dodge, a meteorologist hurricane hunter who through his four-decade career flew into 386 storms. He died last year at the age of 73, and a NOAA hurricane hunter flight dropped Dodge's ashes in the eyewall of Hurricane Milton last Tuesday. 

"An in-flight observations log, which charts information such as position and wind speed, ended with a reference to Dodge's 387th - and final -flight," reports CBS News. 

The ashes were released when Hurricane Milton was pretty much at its peak. The same observations log recorded Milton's to wind speed at 179 mph around the time the ashes were dropped. 

As the Washington Post tells us:

"The ashes were wrapped in the state flag of Florida, Dodge's home state, along with his flight suit's name tag and a patch denoting his hundreds of eyewall flights.

Frank Marks, Dodge's close friend and colleague, said releasing the ashes into Hurricane Milton was 'a total honor and a great tribute and all he's done for us.'"

In addition to his flights, Dodge back in the 1980s developed radar technology that was used to study storms. Programs Dodge wrote over the years are the origins of technology that is still used to track storms.  

In the last decade of his life, he could no longer fly missing into hurricanes due to failing eyesight. But he used a Braille keyboard to refine programs future crews would use in hurricane hunts.  

One More Vermont Snow Chance, Then A Frost/Freeze Then Warm Again?

Let's post the first National Weather Service snowfall
forecast map of the season.  Click on the image to 
make it bigger and easier to see. As you can tell on the
map, most places will get very little if any snow
tonight. But note the pinprick yellow spots in the
northern Green Mountains. That depicts summit forecasts
of six or more inches of snow. 

 After yesterday's high elevation snow in Vermont, we're going to do it again tonight, but don't expect a winter wonderland everywhere.   

A disturbance coming rotating around the departed storm that gave us the cold rain and mountain snow Monday will set off more showers. Of both rain and snow tonight .

It's looking too warm for snow in the Champlain Valley, but you never know if a few wet flakes make it in tonight. 

But for those of you at or above 1,000 feet, there could be a slushy coating to an inch of snow overnight tonight. Especially in the northern half of the state. 

If it does snow anywhere, it'll all be very pretty to look at, with a thin skim of snow on the autumn leaves in some areas when you get up Wednesday morning. With clearer  Thursday, the mountains will remain snow capped much of the day. So the sunshine, the foliage and the mountain snow will yield some classic Vermont fall scenes.

Hikes beware: That thin coating of snow at 1,000 to 2,000 feet will become several inches of snow near and at the summits. There was probably close to half a foot of new snow on some Green Mountain and Adirondack summits just yesterday.

While snow and rain will fall lightly in most places tonight, areas in the upper west slopes of the Greens and the summits could see another three to six inches tonight. 

Temperatures will remain below freezing up there, and winds will be brisk. If anybody goes hiking, prepare for midwinter conditions. 

I actually worry some about this with all the tourists in the state. I know in New Hampshire over the weekend, there were a dozen or more rescues of people unprepared for the outdoors. Witnesses saw visitors hiking in short shorts, even slippers and what was described as go-go boots, with no food, water or extra clothes with them.

I'm afraid we might see some of the same in Vermont. Be smart, people. 

FROST/FREEZE

As skies clear Wednesday night, Vermont should finally see its first really widespread frost and freeze of the season. At this point it looks like pretty much everybody will get a frost, except for areas right near Lake Champlain. 

All that light and dark blue you see on this morning's
National Weather Service map are frost and freeze
alerts. After a warm autumn for the U.S. the first
burst of seasonable weather has prompted these
widespread advisories,

Depending on where you are, if it gets to 32 degrees or lower on Thursday morning, that first freeze of the season would be solidly on the late side.

 The first freeze of the season in Montpelier is on average around October 3, and in Burlington, it comes at around October 8.

After a crisp, bright Thursday, Friday morning will probably also dawn frosty, though not quite as chilly as Thursday morning.

By the way, much of the nation has had a really warm autumn, so this actually rather seasonable cool spell is prompting frost and freeze alerts from Kansas to New England. 

BIG WARM/DRY SPELL? 

That cold high pressure to our west bringing our chilly air will eventually settle over us and strengthen. It'll draw warm, dry air from the southwest, probably introducing a long stretch of warm, dry weather. 

Starting Friday, it looks like we could see several days at least of mild to warm afternoons, with most of them being sunny. Aside from morning fog in spots, mornings should be crisp and cool.  If this forecast holds, we'll see the most pleasant weather possible for the second half of October.  

Long range forecasts are tilting strongly toward a warm, dry regime in the East, including Vermont, starting in earnest this coming weekend and lasting to perhaps almost the end of the month.

If the cold, dreary weather has you despairing that you won't get your property cleaned up and buttoned down for the winter, never fear. Ma Nature looks like she'll give us a chance to get it all done.