Ugly Vermont Winter Storm Is Here, Playing Out As Expected So Far, Some New Nuances To Forecast, Dangerous Ice Central Vermont

The latest National Weather Service ice accumulation
forecast map is the most worrying about this storm,
Red areas are at risk for some power outage. If you
click on the map and make it bigger, you see areas of
darker red in southern Vermont. That's where ice
could accumulate to at least a half inch, which
can cause a lot of damage to power lines. 

 As of dawn, our early spring winter storm here in Vermont is playing out pretty much as expected.

Which is actually a little surprising given how easily the forecast could have been wrong.  Subtle shifts in the position of the the weather front would make a big difference. 

It's been all snow roughly north of Route 2. There will be very little ice up there today. Accumulations so far include 9 inches in Jeffersonville 8 inches in Fairfax, Georgia and Westford and 7 inches in Morrisville.

Here in St. Albans, Vermont I had 5.8 inches of new snow as of 7:30 this morning. 

Snow was tapering off north, so it looks like the forecast of five to nine inches was pretty accurate.

The record for the most snow in Burlington today today is 7.0 inches in 1954. It's iffy as to whether they'll get there. 

There's already freezing rain in a band across central Vermont, and that's the area I'm most worried about. Between what happens today and then again tonight and early Sunday, some areas in the central and southern Green Mountains risk a lot of tree and power line damage from this storm.

Green Mountain Power tells us they have a full crew on deck ready to help restore power, and they're getting some help on standby from other areas as well. 

I noticed as of 7 a.m. Vermont traffic cameras showed trees along Route 7 in Brandon, Route 4 on Mendon Mountain and Interstate 89 near Bethel and along Interstate 91 in southeastern Vermont  beginning to sag under the weight of ice from freezing rain. 

Traffic cam image from Route 103 in Mount Holly, Vermont
shows freezing rain already accumulating on 
trees and power lines. 

The ice looked especially nasty in the trees and utility wires along Route 103 in Mount Holly. 

There were already some outages as of 7:30 this morning, amounting to about 1,000 customers, mostly around Brandon and Leicester.   

Far southern Vermont was getting rain or nothing at all early this morning. 

Needless to say, road conditions in central and northern Vermont are atrocious this morning. 

THE REST OF TODAY

Near and north of Route 2, the main action at least for now was this morning. The worst of the snow for today is over up there. It looks like those areas will get a bit of a break this afternoon and evening. 

A weak wave of low pressure riding along the stalled west to east weather front will go by to our east, and the front will slowly start to sink southward. Both those facts mean the heavy snow this morning will turn into just cloudy skies and maybe a little patchy light snow or freezing drizzle at times.

The fact the break will happen during the day is good. The strong spring sun should work through the clouds a bit. It won't melt all that snow we got early today, but it will at least help road crews get the highways in better shape. It might even briefly get above freezing in spots. 

Precipitation should continue today in central and southern Vermont, but even there, it will be lighter than it is this morning. Still, a little more freezing rain will continue to slowly weigh down trees and power lines in some spots. 

By late afternoon, most of the precipitation will be focused in far southern Vermont. 

After that, the front will stall again, then slowly start to lift northward again

TONIGHT

As the front slowly goes north, rain and freezing rain will start to move north with it.  This is where things start to get bad in central Vermont.  There could be a lot of freezing rain tonight and the first half of Sunday.

Broader valleys west will probably go to a cold rain fairly quickly on Sunday morning, but the the freezing rain will continue in the Green Mountains and valleys east of those mountains. 

Remember yesterday, I mentioned that you start to get a little tree damage and power line problems when you get a quarter inch of ice. You get to a half inch and the power lines and trees really get in trouble.

The latest ice accumulation maps from the National Weather Service depict a half inch or more of ice in the hills and valleys either side of Route 100 between about Weston and Rochester. There's even spot on the map northeast of Manchester drawn as having 0.75 inches of ice.

If you live in these areas especially, charge your devices today. You could be in for some lengthy power outages. 

The rain and freezing rain will continue north overnight and Sunday morning. In the Champlain Valley, it could be pretty icy early Sunday morning, but then we'll transition to a cold rain for the rest of the day. That rain will tend to taper off again during the afternoon and evening

In the colder hollows east of the Green Mountains all the way to the Canadian border, freezing rain could be a problem most of the day, though again, precipitation will tend to taper off during the later part of the day. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

Temperatures will continue to slowly warm Sunday night as scattered light showers linger.

Warm air still looks like it will surge across Vermont Monday, bringing us all well into the 50s and 60s for highs. 

It probably won't rain much until later in the day, when a cold front approaches. There could even some thunderstorms mixed in with this. In fact, on Monday, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center predicts severe thunderstorms up and down the east coast, and a marginal (very slight) risk of a severe storm extends all the way up into southwest Vermont.

It still looks like the rapidly melting snow and ice and the renewed rains Monday will bring river levels up, but so far it's still looking like if we get any flooding at all, it will be pretty minor. 

Stay tuned for more updates on this storm as we get 'em!  

Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Awful Wintry Mess Tonight, Saturday. Pretty Bad Sunday, Too. And Monday Weirdness

Still looking at a good thump of snow in northern Vermont,
mostly overnight and Saturday. This snow forecast map
updated Friday afternoon.

We're gearing up for our big weekend storm and here is a very quick Friday evening update.

The forecast remarkably hasn't changed too much since this morning. Note that meteorologist still think there could be big changes in the forecast if the position of a nearly stalled weather front shifts unexpectedly. 

There are a few forecast updates as of Friday afternoon.  

Here they are:

The winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for  most of the Northeast Kingdom, north central Vermont and parts the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  

There, five to nine inches of snow is expected, mostly late tonight and Saturday morning. The heaviest snow north will probably come down from a little before midnight tonight to mid morning Saturday. 

Lighter precipitation is likely in the afternoon. . Some sleet and freezing rain is also likely Saturday night and Sunday. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, the winter weather advisory is still in effect. 

In general, it looks like the forecast has maintained expected snow amounts in northern Vermont north Route 2.  It might have cut back the totals by maybe an inch or so in the far northern Champlain Valley, but that's just background noise.   

However, forecasts for the amount of freezing rain have ominously remained the same, mostly in central Vermont. There, meteorologists are thinking many areas could still see at least a quarter inch of ice accumulation, which is another to begin bridging down tree branches and power lines. 

Ice accumulation forecast map updated Friday 
afternoon still looks ominous for central Vermont.
Red zones could have problems with power outages
and tree damage. 

A few places could see a half inch of ice, which would really cause a lot of trouble. Luckily,  knock on wood, the half inch amounts so far at least don't look that widespread. 

It also still looks like a number of areas will still be dealing with freezing rain for the first half of Sunday before temperatures start to rise later in the day. Even where the rain isn't freezing, it will be a cold raw days.

Monday and Tuesday will be shocks to the system.

It looks like rain might taper off for a number of hours Monday and the sun might come out a little. That could bring temperatures up into the 60s for many of us, which is just ridiculously different than Saturday and Sunday will be.

As the cold front approaches later Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few rumbles of thunder. 

Rapid snow melt and rain later in the day could lead to some flooding issues. But we still don't have updates on that, and so far it doesn't look like the flooding will be serious. Knock on wood. 

By late Monday night, it'll be in the 20s, with highs only in the 30s Tuesday. 

It's one of those springs in Vermont, folks!

Vermont/Surrounding Areas Still Girding For Nasty Snow And Ice Storm This Weekend

Latest snow forecast map issued by the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington early Friday. 
Map is through 8 p.m Sunday but virtually all the snow
you see here will hit late tonight and Saturday.  
Areas in yellow would see the most snow, with
at least six inches in those spots. 

One thing hasn't changed since yesterday's forecast:

Saturday looks UG-LEE in Vermont.  

We're still looking at a horrible mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain that will last from late tonight through Sunday. 

SATURDAY'S MESS

Although overall forecasts have not changed much since yesterday, we really won't know who gets the heaviest snow and the worst icing until we're into the event.  

It all depends on where and how this wavering, pretty much stalled weather front sets up.

If forecasters are wrong on the position of the weather front by as little as 20 or 30 miles, then current predictions would be incorrect one way or another. It's virtually impossible to forecast the exact position of a sluggish warm or cold front, so that's why all the meteorologists are hemming and hawing about how much awfulness comes down from the sky Saturday and where. 

For now - again this could well change - it looks like northern Vermont from very roughly Route 2 north will stay with mostly snow on Saturday where four to eight inches of fairly wet snow would pile up.

Just south of that, we should see a band of mixed precipitation, including quite a bit of freezing rain. That ice is part of a lengthy band of freezing rain and schmutz that is or will be extending along a lengthy band from  northern Minnesota, through upper Michigan, across southern Ontario and on into Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.  

Again though, don't be surprised if the snow and ice areas end up shifting northward or southward unexpectedly. 

Here in Vermont, the precipitation will come down pretty heavily at times.  Between the fairly wet snow, and the ice, I expect some power outages to develop here a there. 

And we know the roads will be atrocious.  

The latest ice accumulation forecast from the National 
Weather Service. This map could change drastically by
tomorrow, depending on shifts in the forecast
Areas in red are where at least a quarter inch of 
ice would accumulate. Once you get to a quarter
inch, you start to lose tree branches
and some power lines. 

Toward the end of March, when snow falls lightly, it can melt when it hits the pavement because of a higher sun angle allowing heat to penetrate the clouds. 

But snow and ice will be coming down heavily enough, from thick clouds, so that we won't really get a break from the early spring sun. 

Expect snow and ice covered roads all day, mostly but not exclusively in the northern half of the state. 

If you have to drive anywhere, do it today, as we're not expected any weather problems whatsoever until tonight. 

it looks like there will be a fair amount of plain rain during the day Saturday in far southern Vermont. 

But precipitation could begin as ice early Saturday, go over to rain, then switch back to freezing rain Saturday night as cold air temporarily bleeds southward all the way to near the Massachusetts border. 

SATURDAY NIGHT

That risk of freezing rain in southern Vermont Saturday night is because that front will drift southward overnight, flooding all of Vermont with chillier air from Quebec. Briefly, anyway. Precipitation probably won't come down all that heavily Saturday night, but those areas receiving a little more freezing rain will see a little more weight added to trees and power lines, so that could risk some trouble.

SUNDAY

That front will slowly lift back north starting early in the day. As it looks now, freezing rain will redevelop, but gradually change to a cold rain during the day.  Parts of  eastern Vermont might have trouble getting above freezing you get well into the afternoon 

That makes me worried about really thick accumulations of ice in a few locations by Sunday.  Once ice from freezing rain gets to be a quarter inch thick or more, you start to lose a few tree limbs and power lines.

Once the ice gets to a half inch thick or more, you really start to risk widespread tree damage and big time power outages. 

This morning's ice forecast maps from the National Weather Service - again, definitely subject to change - has a pretty wide area of central Vermont seeing about a quarter to maybe third of an inch of ice.  

Those maps also shows small, limited areas of Vermont with at least a half inch of ice.  But it's going to be a close call. We'll need to keep an eye on this in case some more widespread areas get a lot of ice. If it looks like we might see more freezing rain than expected, the winter weather advisory would be upgraded to an ice storm warning for a few sections of the state. 

Even where ice turns into a cold rain Sunday, the snow and ice won't immediately begin to melt all that fast. Temperatures will hold in the 30s most of the day, so the schmutz on the ground will just soggier.

We'll have to wait until later Sunday night and Monday to see any hint of a return to spring. 

MONDAY

Still looking weird. 

Temperatures - at least for awhile - will rocket upwards into the 50s to maybe some 60s as the rain continues and it turns sort of oddly humid for this time of year. The rain and the rapidly melting snow and ice from the weekend could lead to some flooding problems.  It's a little early to predict how much if any flooding we'll see. 

Rivers will certainly go up, but whether they spill their banks is an open question. But so far it's not looking too serous. 

There could conceivably even be a few non-severe thunderstorms mixed in on Monday. 

It's another thing to keep an eye on, though.

A sharp cold front Monday night will plunge us into the 20s, so all that remaining water out there will freeze up. At least by later Monday night the precipitation will have been mostly flushed away. 

After a cold for the season but bright Tuesday, another storm looks to come along by Thursday.  That one likely will turn out to be mostly rain, and probably not as big as the fun we're going to have this weekend. 

Thursday Evening Storm Update: First Crack At Vermont Snow, Ice Accumulations, But Still Could Be Huge Changes

An early guess on snowfall in Vermont and surrounding
areas Friday night to Sunday morning. Could be a lot
near the Canadian border if current forecasts come true.

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington pulled the trigger this afternoon and issued a winter weather advisory for all of Vermont except the southernmost two counties. 

It goes from late Friday evening all the way to early Sunday afternoon. 

There's new snow and ice accumulation maps out, too, which I'm posting here.  With a big caveat.  The forecast could change drastically.

With the nearly stalled front setting up nearby, ,it won't be the traditional big blob of precipitation. 

Instead, it looks like it will be a narrow band of pretty heavy snow, with an even narrower band of freezing rain just to the south of that. 

The snow band could set up anywhere from southern Quebec to central Vermont. If forecasts issued this afternoon turn out to be accurate,  it looks like the heaviest snow would run along and north of a North Hero to Stowe to St. Johnsbury line. 

The heaviest icing would run through New York's Adirondacks and on through central Vermont. Also depending on where the precipitation sets up and how heavy it gets, the National Weather Service might upgrade the winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning in a few locations. Stay tuned. 

Early guess from the National Weather Service on 
potential ice accumulation from freezing rain Saturday.
Again, big time subject to change. Watch the red
areas on these ice maps, Those were where tree
damage and power outages are most likely.

I have to repeat myself. That forecast is NOT cast in stone. Updates and changes will come. 

Whatever comes out of the sky, it looks like the heaviest precipitation will come through during the day Saturday. 

Travel will be awful through northern and central Vermont if the forecast comes true. The weight of wet snow and ice from the freezing rain could cause some power outages, too. 

SATURDAY NIGHT

The front will probably temporarily sink southward shutting off most of the precipitation overnight. There might be a little drizzle south and a little freezing drizzle central and north. 

SUNDAY

Our pesky front will work its way north again. At first, freezing rain could redevelop in central and northern Vermont causing more tree and power line damage if the ice accumulates enough.

During the morning, the ice should evolve into a cold plain rain, but the freezing rain could linger well into the afternoon east of the Greens.  The rain should fall relatively lightly, but also continue Sunday night

MONDAY

A weird day, probably.  A larger piece of the storminess will come in, lifting the weather front well to our north. Temperatures might soar into the 50s to near 60 in many areas, and it might feel a little humid.

The warm air might get cut off at the pass in far northwestern Vermont, where a sharp cold front will pre-empt the brief warming. Between the melting snow and continued rain, there could be some flooding problems, but so far, river forecasts aren't setting of major alarm bells. We'll keep an eye on it, but so far, it doesn't look too scary.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY

A sharp cold front will freeze everything up again, but at least the precipitation will pretty much be over. After a brief, dry chilly spell Tuesday and Wednesday, another rather wet storm looks like it might arrive Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Early guesses on that storm make me think that one will be mostly rain. 

 

Winter's Last Gasp? Vermont Weekend Storm Will Be A Snowy, Icy, Rainy, Troublesome Mess

As of this morning, I'm still super reluctant to post any
snow or ice accumulation maps for the winter storm
that seems likely this coming weekend. Forecast
or amounts is too uncertain. So, I'll post another
photo of a past icy storm, this one in January, 2017. 

 I'll cut to the chase.  We're in for a big wintry mess of a storm this weekend, with potential heavy snow, possibly enough freezing rain to damage trees and power lines in some spots, followed by the risk of flooding.  

And this one will last a long time. The trouble will arrive late Friday night and probably won't leave us alone until Monday might. 

We still don't know who gets the most snow, the most ice, the most rain. We probably won't, really, until the storm is underway.  A subtle shift in the way weather fronts set up would make a huge difference as to what happens. 

Much more detail to come below, but first, we've already had a bit of a return to winter as an appetizer, and we should update that.

WEDNESDAY/LAST NIGHT

Snow showers were pretty widespread across Vermont all day Wednesday and to extent last night.  A few of these turned into snow squalls, which would lay down a quick half inch to inch of snow. Roads would get briefly dicey under these squalls.

It was warm enough in the valleys during the day that immediately after a snow shower passed, the snow would melt. I awoke Wednesday to a half inch of snow on the ground in St. Albans, which quickly melted. Twice during the day we received a dusting to a  quarter inch of snow that would disappear in an instant once the sun reappeared. This morning, there's another half inch on the ground. 

Mountains were colder and the snow is piling up, giving ski areas a late season break after the mid-month mega thaw. Near the top of Mount Mansfield, snow depth fell from 103 inches at the beginning of the month to 76 inches by March 20. As of yesterday, it was back up to 90 inches, and I'm sure more fell on top of that.

Jay Peak picked up close to six inches of new snow in the 24 hours ending Wednesday afternoon.

NEW STORM DETAILS:

After some morning snow showers diminish today, we actually get some sun with highs in the upper 30s in colder spots to mid 40s in warmer areas like the Champlain Valley. Another disturbance will bring us some light snow showers tonight, followed by a partly sunny, chilly Friday.

Then the real fun begins.

Starting late Friday night and well into Sunday, that nearly stalled front I mentioned in yesterday morning's post will set up over or near Vermont.

The temperature contrast on either side of the front looks even bigger than we thought 24 hours ago. As of this morning, the forecast highs on Saturday are: 73 in Hartford, Connecticut, 54 in Bennington, Vermont, 40 in Rutland, Vermont, 35 in Burlington and 31 in Newport, Vermont.

Meanwhile, moisture-rich air will be riding along this front.

As you can tell by the temperature forecast - it it's accurate - the real trouble should hit central and northern Vermont. 

The wet air will glide up from the south  and go up and over the cold air to the north.  That means snow and mixed precipitation should break out late Friday night and continue Saturday, except maybe in southern Vermont, where it should just rain.

That front might slip south Saturday night, putting more of central and southern Vermont at risk for some ice, but perhaps ending the precipitation far north for a time. 

Then Sunday, the front should begin to lift north again, putting northern and perhaps central Vermont into more snow and ice.  

ACCUMULATION

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington and other local meteorologists are understandably reluctant to issue any accumulation forecasts just yet.  If the nearly stalled front ends up as little as 20 miles north or south of projections, then what comes from the sky at any given time can change drastically 

Northern Vermont could see at least a half foot of snow, or a lot of ice, or a crummy combination of the two or mostly rain. 

Early guesses I've seen bring half a foot of snow to places near the Canadian border. I'm also seeing hints that a few spots could see more than a quarter inch of ice accumulation, which threatens trees and power lines. 

I'm also pretty sure now that road conditions for much of the weekend in central and northern Vermont will be dicey at best. 

On top of all that, early, uncertain indications are that front will finally surge north into Quebec Monday.  If that happens, temperatures across most of Vermont could get above 50 degrees as the rain continues. 

Again, if that scenario plays out, the rain, warmth and melting snow and ice could trigger flood problems. 

We do know there's the potential for a lot of precipitation. If current projections hold, rain, and melted snow and ice would amount to two or three inches of precipitation between Friday night and Tuesday morning, which is a lot for a late March storm. 

I've probably raised more questions that answers for you with this post.  But pay attention to updated forecasts now through the weekend if you live in Vermont, the rest of northern New England, northern New York or southern Quebec.

This one could be a real troublemaker. 

South Korean Wildfires Even Worst Than U.S. Blazes

Extreme wildfires in South Korea have killed 24 people
destroyed hundreds of homes and mowed down
historic sites. 

 I wrote about the swarm of United States wildfires we've seen recently, but things are as bad or worse in some other nations.   

Especially South Korea. 

Per the Associated Press: 

"Wind-driven wildfires that were among South Korea's worst ever have ravaged the country's southern regions, killing 24 people, destroying more than 200 structures and forcing 27,000 residents to evacuate, officials said Wednesday."

The fires started in earnest Friday and were still raging Wednesday. A little rain forecast Thursday might temporarily dampen the blazes, but it likely won't be enough to entirely stop the conflagration. 

The fires have gone so far as to destroy some of South Korea's history and heritage.

Large parts of an ancient Buddhist temple complex were swept by the wildfire, destroying 20 of 30 buildings and structures at the ancient Gousa temple. Two of the destroyed buildings that had been designated national treasures. 

The Gaunru, a pavilion-shaped structure built in 1668 overlooking a stream, and Yeonsujeon, built in 1904 to celebrate the longevity of a king, were demolished in the fires.  Monks and other Buddhist moved a stone Buddha statue reportedly build in the 8th century out of way of the flames, so that treasure was saved, the AP said.

Other sites important to South Koreas were also threatened. 

Says the Associated Press:

"Strong winds and smoke-filled skies forced authorities in the southeastern city of Andong to order evacuations in two villages, including Puncheon, home to the Hahoe folk village - a UNESCO World Heritage Site founded around the 14th-15th century. Hikers were advised to leave scenic Jiri Mountain, one of the country's largest national parks, as another fire spread closer."

Back in the United States, wildfires on Wednesday continued to burn in the southeastern part of the nation, especially in the western Carolinas.  

Additional evacuations were reported today as the fires continued to spread, many with zero or near zero containment. 

Residents of both North and South Carolina were under mandatory burn bans. Large areas from Georgia to Maryland were under red flag warnings this afternoon, which signify a very high fire danger.

Meteorologists have slightly increased rainfall projections for this coming Sunday and Monday in the western parts of the Carolinas, but it still might not be enough to squelch the fires in a meaningful way.

 

"Battleground Storm" To Give Vermont, Surrounding Areas An Ugly, Possibly Wintry Weather Weekend

Believe it or not, depending on how things set up.
icy scenes like this could be what the landscape looks
like in at least parts of Vermont this coming weekend. 

Whenever the weather gets "interesting" here in Vermont, that's seldom a good sign.  

Unfortunately, we are in for an interesting weekend, it appears. 

The exact nature of what will happen is still tricky. It really depends on where weather fronts set up and the interaction between very cold air to the north and quite balmy air to the south. 

Here in Vermont, the rest of northern New England, northern New York and southern Quebec. we could well be looking at an ugly mix of snow, rain and freezing rain. 

 A few areas could get a full-blown ice storm, but that's uncertain. And if that happens we don't know where yet. 

THE BIG PICTURE

A storm is plowing into the Pacific Northwest today.  Record high temperatures preceded it. Today, there's a very rare risk of severe thunderstorms, large hail and maybe even a tornado or two in western Oregon and western Washington, including the cities of Portland and Seattle. 

That's an incredibly weird place to have severe weather, especially this time of year. But there you go. 

The storminess will inevitably come out into the middle of the nation and ultimately create an outbreak of severe storms and possible tornadoes across parts of the Midwest, South and Southeast over Sunday and Monday.

That's not good of course, but not really our problem up here in northern New England. 

What is our problem is the classic battle between spring and winter. A Bermuda high out ahead of our storm system will pump warm and kind of humid air into most of the eastern Untied States.

By Saturday highs should be in the mid-70s as far north as New York City. 

Meanwhile a blob of really cold air will sink southward into Quebec.  While New York is in the 70s Saturday, Montreal, Quebec expects a high in the mid-20s  (about -4 Celsius).

That leaves us in Vermont in the middle, right in the middle of the battleground. Which means weather front will be mostly stuck, over or near us.   The Midwest storms will send along little storms - its children, really - riding roughly west to east  along the front through our regionFriday through at least Monday.

WHAT THIS MEANS

For now, all the forecasts for Saturday through Monday are pretty broad brush for us, mentioning snow, rain and freezing rain.

That's because it depends on where the front sets up and when. It also depends on how much cold air comes down from Quebec, and how much warm air comes up from the south.  Nobody wants to get into specifics of what will happen because of those questions, and I don't blame 'em.

Freezing rain could be a real problem with this. The cold air will probably try to bleed southward from Quebec in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, while the warm air streams high overhead.

This late in the season, that usually creates just a cold rain maybe mixed with a little sleet. But the Quebec cold air is so chilly that it could keep temperatures near the surface, especially in northern Vermont below freezing.  That could result in a lot of freezing rain. Maybe. We don't know for sure yet. 

This system does seem destined to bring quite a bit of precipitation to us, too.  It's possible we could see 1.5 to two inches of rain and melted ice and snow between Saturday and Tuesday.  Again, that's a preliminary guess. But it demonstrates that a lot of rain or schmutz would cause more problems than just a little.

FIRST GUESS

The following is BIG TIME subject to change but here's an early guesstimate of what we might see this weekend. 

For now, snow and a mix seem most likely late Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night, with a greater trend toward plain rain south and perhaps in the warmer valleys in central Vermont. 

Sunday's a wild card, with maybe a little snow, but also some fair amounts of cold plain rain or freezing rain. 

It looks like the trend might be toward plain rain on Monday. 

If this storm turns out to be mostly rain, then we could have some flooding issues to talk about. If there's snow and ice, of course road travel becomes a problem. And in the off chance a particular spot receives a LOT of ice, then there could be some power outages.

It's only Wednesday, so we still have to wait for more details on how this one plays out. Don't be surprised if you see huge changes in the forecast between what you just read and what we actually see on the weekend. 

I'm pretty sure, though, this won't be the weekend you'll want to start the spring cleaning in your outdoor gardens.