One More Day Of Extreme Rains, Tornadoes To Plague Battered U.S Middle, Here In Vermont, Just Minor Weather Hassles

Hopkinsville, Kentucky is one of a great many communities
in the middle of the U.S. suffering flooding as a weeklong
torrential rain storm and severe weather outbreak causes
havoc from Texas to Ohio. Photo by George Walker IV/AP

 The nation's middle needs to get through one more day of torrential flooding rains today and maybe some more tornadoes before relief begins to arrive tomorrow. 

 Since Tuesday, the Midwest and South have endured at least 83 tornadoes, and that number will go up as damage areas are assessed.  

This includes at least 14 twisters on Friday scattered around northeast Texas, Arkansas and southeast Missouri. 

More tornadoes are in the cards today for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and southeast Arkansas.

The real story, as expected, is shifting toward the torrential rains, which will continue unabated today. 

The area under the gun is huge. A long string of flash flood warnings extended from northeast Texas to southern Illinois this morning. Flood watches go from Texas to southwest Pennsylvania.

Already, we tragically have one flood death, that of a nine year boy swept away and drowned in Frankfort, Kentucky.

As in virtually all disasters, the flooding is beginning to hit some towns harder than others in the same region. 

Downtown Hopkinsville, Kentucky was under water as six to 10 inches of rain swamped that area. A dozen people had to be rescued from flooded homes.  Similar water rescues were reported in far flung places like Van Buren Missouri and Texarkana, Texas. Four inches of rain fell in Cape Girardeau, in southeast Missouri within eight hours. Three inches of that came within two hours. 

Hundreds of Kentucky roads were blocked by high water as of Friday. It was still raining hard in Kentucky this morning. 

Friday's rainfall curved a little north and west of where it was centered the day before. It was mostly Arkansas and Kentucky that saw the worst of it. 

Both states will get nailed today by up to nine inches of rain falling on already waterlogged ground. Which will exponentially worsen the flooding.  Today will be the worst day of the flooding as a result.  The torrents will also creep back southeastward back into Tennessee and northwest Mississippi, so the flooding will broaden.

 The stalled weather pattern will finally begin to break down Sunday.  There could be some severe storms and local flooding in the Gulf Coast states Sunday, but it won't be as bad as what we've seen this week from Texas to Ohio. 

Even after the rain stops, the flooding will continue and in some cases worsen in the coming days as larger rivers crest.

FLOODS AND CLIMATE

I can't definitively say that this mess was "caused" by climate change but it's consistent with the planet's warming.

Torrential rains and flooding have always struck the South and Midwest occasionally in the spring storm season. But this storm - and several others earlier this year and in recent years - have proven especially torrential and disastrous. 

For instance, this is Kentucky's second "100 year rainstorm" in less than two months. 

Climate change turbocharges storms, and makes what would have been a heavy rain especially torrential. In other words, the weather setup that is causing this week's flood disaster might have happened anyway without climate change. 

But chances are the rain associated with it is much more intense than it would have been in a cooler world. So the flooding is worse than it otherwise would be.  

VERMONT WEATHER

We're getting remarkably close to daffodil bloom
time in St. Albans, Vermont. Earlier than normal 
once again due to a string of warm springs 
recently. However, chilly weather over the next
several days should temporarily slow our 
progress through the spring green up season.

We continue to be blessed with pretty benign weather here in the Green Mountain State, at least compared to so many other areas of the nation. 

The weather will be far from perfect for the next few days, but you have to expect that around here in early April. 

The good news is forecasters have somewhat backed off from the idea of freezing rain in eastern Vermont and the Green Mountains. 

There could still be patchy ice up high in the mountains.  Swaths of the Northeast Kingdom should also be cold enough for freezing rain this afternoon and tonight. 

Those temperatures will be marginal, so the ice will be patchy.  It'll be enough to make some of the roads up that way treacherous today and tonight, but very likely not enough to create some power outages.

The other trouble spot today is the northern Champlain Valley. Ice won't be a problem there, but gusty winds might. 

A wind advisory is up in the central and northern Champlain Valley from mid-afternoon today to after midnight tonight. Gusts could reach up to 50 mph.  The rain falling during this time period might tamp the wind gusts down a little though. 

Everybody will be rainy this afternoon and tonight. It won't really come down that hard, though, so this won't cause any flooding. It'll make mud season a little worse than it already is, but that's about it. 

Sunday is looking a little more optimistic than earlier forecasts, especially the further north and west you go. After a gray morning that will carry the risk of a little lingering rain, we expect some sun in the afternoon. 

It won't be all that warm with highs mostly in the 40s, but still, not bad for early April. 

The next problem is Monday night and Tuesday, when a potent little disturbance and blast of chilly air invade. There won't be much accumulation, but the timing looks lousy. At this point, some heavy snow showers look like they might come through right during the Tuesday morning commute. 

It'll be enough snow in many areas to make the roads slick and awful.  Stay tuned for updates on that.

After that, the weather pattern is shifting for awhile, anyway, in which we'll see mostly near normal temperatures  and  no blockbuster storms in or near Vermont as we head into the middle of the month. 

Ice Storm Videos Really Make Us Glad We Didn't Have To Deal With That Much

The effects of last weekend's ice storm in Michigan

 Last weekend, a massive ice storm stretched from Wisconsin, through the northern Great Lakes, into southern Ontario and Quebec and into New England.  

We had our own issues with that ice, as we know, with tree damage and power outages in central and southern Vermont. 

But we didn't have it nearly as bad as places like northern Michigan and parts of Ontario. The following videos in this post are at once horrifying, beautiful and sad.

The videos brought back memories of the Great Ice Storm of 1998 here in Vermont, (And Quebec, Maine, New York and a few other places).

The trees were the saddest loss. But eventually they do come back and after several years, everything looks normal again. We hope for a fast recovery for all those who lost their beloved trees in the hardest hit areas.

The videos: 

Here's a compelling video of the ice storm in northern Michigan. It's a drive through the region, and it's a combination of sadness, beauty, awe and destruction.  Click on this link to view. or if you see the image below, click on that:

A walk through a forested neighborhood in Gaylord, Michigan reveals the damage and the almost gunshot like sounds of tree collapsing under the weight of the ice. Again, click on this link or if you see the image below click on that. 

A aerial look around Gaylord, Michigan after the skies cleared reveal the awful beauty of an ice storm's destruction. Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In southern Michigan, watch what increasing thunderstorms winds, finally reaching 95 mph, does to the mobile home in the surveillance video. Once again, click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that: 

 

Tornado And Flood Nightmare Continues In Mid-U.S. Here in Vermont, A Little More Sneaky Ice?

Tornado debris is scattered far and wide after a deadly
tornado swept through Selmer, Tennessee 

It's going to be another very, very rough day in the middle of the nation with more tornadoes and a rapidly worsening flood situation. 

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, despite nice hints of warmth here and there, we can't seem to shake the threat of ice raining on our springtime parade. 

I'll get into both, but as usual, first the grim national news:

TORNADOES INCREASE, AS DO FLOODS

So far, at least 44 tornadoes have been reported in the latest outbreak.  The count will rise as storm damage is assessed and as more twisters inevitably touch down today and probably tomorrow, too.

The death toll so far from the storms is at least seven, but that will unfortunately rise as debris is searched and more violent weather strikes. 

While today's awful weather will affect a wide area of the Midwest and South, Arkansas is today's particular victim. That state has the greatest chance of seeing potentially strong tornadoes and it faces the worst of today's flooding.  

That said, a huge area faces a big risk of flash flooding today from roughly Dallas all the way to Indianapolis. 

The rain is falling on already soaked ground. In the 48 hours ending at midnight last night, Memphis had received 6.9 inches of rain already, more than an inch more than what they normally see in the entire month of April. 

After tornado sirens kept blaring through the early morning hours, Nashville was deluged with just under four inches of rain Thursday, flooding much of the city. 

Most of Kentucky was under a flash flood warning this morning after as much as six inches of rain blasted down, and it was still pouring. This same area had one of its worse floods on record less than two months ago. 

The same general areas as today are under the gun with more tornadoes and especially flooding on Saturday. The weather system responsible for all this will finally start to head east Sunday, ending this long bout of punishing storms.

VERMONT EFFECTS

It really felt and looked like spring was arriving in this 
view of my St. Albans, Vermont yard Thursday evening....

Thursday morning's thunderstorm and rain and wind drama tapered off nicely by afternoon. Burlington ended up with 0.81 inches of rain, making it just barely the wettest April 3 on record. 

Not everybody warmed up as much as thought, as the Northeast Kingdom stayed cool all days. At 4 p.m. Thursday it was just 41 in Lyndonville, but 70 in Bennington. 

 Everything west of the Green Mountains did warm up nicely. Burlington got up to 68 degrees. 

It won't get quite that warm again for a little while yet, as a colder, unsettled pattern settles in for at least a few days. 

And guess what? After last weekend's ice storm, and the icy weather early Thursday in eastern Vermont, this weekend we might be in for.....you guessed it, more ice!

I don't think it will be widespread, but there might well be at least some areas with bad roads and maybe even some isolated power outages again. 

Here's the set up:

We're still expecting that stalled front causing the disaster in the middle of the nation to develop sort of a northeast extension that would allow weak waves of low pressure to come through us here in northern New England. 

For most of us, it still looks like that just means a rainy weekend.  But there's a couple of wrinkles.

....but the National Weather Service is still releasing
ice accumulation maps. This is for Saturday affecting
a few locations in eastern Vermont and in the much
of the Green Mountain high elevations. 

When the rain starts Saturday morning, it might be cold enough at first for a little snow and sleet at elevations of above 1,500.  I don't think we'll see much accumulation, but winter ain't over. 

That's not the end of it.  It looks like winds will help bring in a cold layer near the surface to areas along and east of the Green Mountains. 

That could make it cold enough for freezing rain once again. Mostly at higher elevations. But Saturday might, the cold air might creep down into valley floors east of the Greens, too.   

That could mean freezing rain.  

Not everybody will see freezing rain. In fact we don't know yet how extensive this might be. Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington are taking a hard look at this and will update as they get more data.

There's a chance we'll see another winter weather advisory east of the Greens if this develops. 

People west of the Green Mountains should be safe from the ice. However, the northern Champlain Valley on Saturday afternoon looks like it will see another round of gusty winds, possibly gusting to at least 40 mph. 

That will just make a raw Saturday feel worse. 

Winter isn't done with us even after the weekend. A pretty strong disturbance and blast of cold air is due Tuesday.  Luckily the disturbance won't have a lot of moisture to work with, but it definitely looks like we might see at least some snow on Tuesday. Stay tuned for that. 

On the bright side, things aren't as bad as they were exactly a year ago. On this date, April 4, 2024, we had about foot of heavy, wet snow. 

More NOAA And National Weather Service Woes. Cutbacks, Micromanaging Threaten Forecast Communications

A critical communications tool used by NOAA and the
National Weather Service was almost shut down by
cutback and foot dragging by members of the Trump
administration. If the shutdown had happened, 
weather information that would have resulted in
timely storm warnings would have been crippled. 

Brutal staff cuts, budget cuts all in the name of "saving money" (Hah!) have already badly hurt the National Weather Service's ability to do its literally life saving work.  

Now, even worse, as  Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is  micromanaging in a way  that is threatening public safety even more. 

The Commerce Department oversees the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and by extension the National Weather Service.

Lutnick says he has to personally approve many contracts and extensions. The time it takes for him to do that is slowing operations down, and earlier this week nearly shut down a critical forecasting communication tool whose contract was about to expire,.

And, because a contract wasn't renewed, the National Weather Service halted foreign language forecasts right before one of the worst severe weather outbreaks in years was just about to start.

NOAA COMMUNICATION

Earlier, this week, the NOAA nearly lost a critical communications tool due to foot dragging on contracts. 

  Per Axios:

"As severe thunderstorms rumbled along the East Coast on Monday, the National Weather Service faced the possibility of losing its ability to bring satellite and observational data into forecast offices in a timely manner, starting at midnight, current and former staff told Axios."

I  have to stop right here before going on with the story to just note that Axios has been absolutely fantastic covering how the Trump administration is hindering the National Weather Service. Trump and Elon Musk and DOGE moves are threatening the lives of so many Americans who live in the path of dangerous storms. 

The Trump brigade is  endangering lives in a myriad of other ways too, of course, but since this is a weather and climate blog, I'll stay in my lane for now. 

The most recent problem involved what is known as the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System or AWIPS. It's the main way meteorologists access weather data from satellites, radars, ground observations and computer models 

Axios again: 

"If the contract was to expire - even temporarily - the AWIPS help desk would stop functioning. Data flowing to NWS offices, particularly satellites and observational information, could be subject to delays, to NOAA sources familiar with the matter told Axios. 

This could jeopardize the timely issuance of extreme weather watches and warnings. Forecasters would have been operating on a time delay, which would cost lives during severe weather outbreaks"

Even seemingly mundane tasks at NOAA and National Weather Service offices are getting screwed up A notice went out that facilities services at NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland, such as changing lightbulbs and adjusting thermostats have been suspended.

I have no idea why. It's just petty. 

The whole Lutnick and his minions must approve contracts understandably has eyes rolling. I'm all for oversight, as who wants to see tax dollars wasted or stolen?  But that oversight had already been in place. Concentrating that oversight into the hands of a billionaire (Lutnick) who is beholden to his billionaire friends just makes me nervous. 

I'm not saying by any stretch of the imagination Lutnick is a crook, mostly because I have zero evidence that he is.  But concentrating the oversight to him just invites trouble. 

"This is outrageously inefficient,' Rick Spinrad, NOAA' administrator during the Biden administration, told Axios. 'Secondly, I understand that the recommendations for approval are being vetted by newly replaced political appointees with zero technical experience,' Spinrad said."

Future procurements include a new C-130 Hurricane Hunter aircraft to replace its current aging fleet, moving agency IT operations to the cloud, and building and sending off new weather satellites. A new cloud-based version of AWIPS is also planned.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FORECASTS

Despite the hysteria of MAGA who insist that everyone be proficient in English, not everybody wholes in the United States is fluent in the language. Hell, half of MAGA can't speak or comprehend English very well, but that's another story. 

On Tuesday , a contract with the AI translation firm Lilt lapsed. This was immediately before what will become a nearly week long outbreak of rapidly changing, extreme severe weather, including tornadoes and catastrophic flooding. 

You'd think that people who don't speak English should at least be still told a large tornado was headed toward their house, but that's not the thinking here, apparently. 

Per Bloomberg, via Earth.org

"The five-year contract, valued at $5.8 million and set to be renewed every spring, helped provide weather forecast translations into Spanish, Chinese and three other languages to some 30 cities and metropolitan areas across the country."

There were no plans to substitute in another service until the Lilt contract is renewed. Nobody seems to be sure when or if the contract will be renewed.  

Just the usual incompetence and total lack of professionalism we've come to expect from members fo the Trump administration. 

Tornado And Flood Tragedy In U.S. Off To A Bad Start, Three More Days Of This; In Vermont, Noisy But Not Destructive

Screen grab of a video showing a monster
tornado mowing through Lake City,
Arkansas. The tornado caused 
extensive damage. 

As expected, swarms of tornadoes strafed a large section of the nation's middle yesterday and overnight, spreading death and destruction across several states. 

That was only the beginning. More tornadoes are expected for the next three days. Worse, cataclysmic flooding is still in the cards for the Mid-South.

Here in Vermont, we've had our noisy overnight and early morning with mixed precipitation, bursts of heavy rain, strong wind gusts, thunder and lighting. 

For us here in the Green Mountain State, we can thank goodness the weather is at worst an inconvenience, not a disaster. 

With that, I'll get into the national picture and toward the end, update you on what's happening in Vermont. 

TORNADOES AND FLOODS

We're just getting toward early morning in the Midwest and South as I wrote this at 8 a.m., so as you'd imagine, assessments and casualty counts are incomplete yet. Many if not most of Wednesday's tornadoes hit after dark, so a full picture of what happened is incomplete.

We're already aware of three storm related deaths in Tennessee and a number of injuries. 

It appears at least some of the tornadoes were intense. Video taken from around Lake City Arkansas showed a large tornado with some horizontal funnels protruding from it. That's a tell-tale sign of a tornado that was probably of EF-4 strength, with winds of 166 to 200 mph. 

Adding to the potential evidence that this tornado was that strong, video taken after the twister shows houses completely leveled and vehicles strewn likely a fair distance from where they originated. 

We saw at least 22 reports of tornadoes yesterday and last night, and that number will almost certainly increase as storm paths and damage are assesses over the next few days. Tornado watches and warnings were still ongoing as dawn broke this morning in Tennessee and Kentucky.

Flooding is already breaking out, the start of what will be some of the worst flooding on record in parts of the Mid-South. Memphis has already had more than four inches of rain from last night, including 2.26 inches in just one hour. 

Things will get much worse before they get better

Tornado Outlook

Tornadoes are forecast to continue today, tomorrow and Saturday, with a particular emphasis on Arkansas, which as mentioned has already been hit hard by twisters.

Tornadoes, some possibly strong could form in central or southern Arkansas today.   On Friday, tornadoes, again some strong, could touch down nearly anywhere in Arkansas and surrounding states. 

More twisters are likely in and and near Arkansas Saturday. I

Flooding

The flooding will be even worse than the tornadoes. 

In addition to the downpours last night, another seven to as much as 15 inches of rain are in the forecast over the next four or five days for late sections of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois. 

Granted this is a repeat of what I reported yesterday.  But the flood event is only just beginning. You'll hear and see on the news incredible flash flooding. This is life threatening and will be easily one of the worst floods, if not the worst flood in the U.S. you'll see this year. 

I would say it could be almost on par with the extreme flooding we saw in western North Carolina and surrounding areas with Hurricane Helene last September. 

Flood watches already extend from northeast Texas through Ohio.   

A stalled weather front with intense moisture from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico feeding into it are responsible for all this horrible weather.  Things should finally get unstuck by Sunday, and the weather in the U.S. looks much calmer and much less dangerous next week. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The WCAX camera feed from the ECHO Center in Burlington
captured this lightning bolt early this morning. 

Those forecasts we heard last night of a noisy early Thursday morning sure came true. 

The wonderful thing is we're avoiding a disaster this time, even if the weather system affecting us are related to the ones causing the extreme weather in the middle of the nation. 

Our first salvo was overnight. The parent storm of the weather front that stalled across the Mid-South is noisily moving through.

This storm is a novelty more than anything else, since it brought us our first bout of lightning and thunder of the season early this morning. Most places in Vermont saw some lightning flashes and experienced rumbles of thunder. 

Some areas of eastern Vermont experienced thunder sleet and/or thunder freezing rain, which is pretty cool. 

Most of the mixed precipitation was over by 7 a.m., though a few lingering pockets of it might still be ongoing in a few cold Northeast Kingdom hollows.  There were a number of delayed school openings in eastern Vermont due to the overnight ice. 

Rainfall has been pretty heavy under the thunderstorms, but most of us should stay under an inch of new precipitation.  A few places that got bullseyed by thunderstorms might go over an inch. Burlington had received 0.7 inches of rain through 8 a.m. and it was still raining there.

Rivers were already running high prior to this rain, so we might end up with pockets of minor flooding here and there later today from the runoff. 

That would hit mostly in places with poor drainage.  Main stem rivers in Vermont will rise today, but we'll very likely avoid any real flooding from those. Hydrologists with the National Weather Service are keeping an eye on things. 

The storm in Vermont peaked generally between the hours of 2 and 8 a.m.  Most of the rain should be out of here by mid to late morning.  

The wind has been really cranking in parts of the Champlain Valley this morning, again, as expected.  On my hillside perch in St. Albans, I'd estimate some of the gusts have reached as high as 45 mph. 

So far, between the wind and lightning and the ice in eastern Vermont, there's only been a small smattering of power outages. Nothing widespread.

A wind advisory is still in effect for northwest Vermont until 8 this evening.  Winds in northwest Vermont might taper off a little for a few hours late this morning then start to crank from the southwest and west at speeds as high as 55 mph in gusts. Then things will calm down this evening. 

At least it will be warm. After the rain departs this morning temperatures should rocket upward well into the 60s in most of Vermont. Maybe upper 50s in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Stalled Front

That stalled weather front that is causing so much destruction in the Mid-Mississippi Valley will start to extend up into our neck of the woods this weekend. 

But up here, we'll miss out on the fire hose of moisture striking the Midwest flood zone. Instead, we'll see kind of a blah weekend with periods of rain. I suppose a little snow or mixed precipitation could mix in Saturday in high spots and maybe the Northeast Kingdom, but this will be rain. 

Early guesses are we'll get a half inch to an inch of rain. Enough to keep river flows pretty brisk, but very likely not enough to cause flooding. We'll watch this, though. There's always a chance this weekend's rain could over-perform. 

Doesn't look likely, but we'll see.  

Wednesday Evening Vermont Update: Rather Dramatic Storm Overnight, Early Thursday. Snow, Ice, Rain, Wind, Thunder

Skies darkening over St. Albans, Vermont late this
afternoon as we brace for a relatively short but
dramatic storm of snow, ice, wind, rain and probably
thunder. Things get better tomorrow late morning. 

The tornado warnings are popping like crazy in the Midwest and South as our anticipated big twister outbreak gets underway, followed by the epic, record flood event in parts of the nation's middle that we talked about this morning. 

Unfortunately, I think it's going to be a deadly and destructive few days, so our hearts go out to the many people who are going to be victims of this. 

I don't have much more to say about that right now as the those huge storms develop, so I'll focus this evening on our own little drama setting up in Vermont. 

It won't necessarily be deadly or super damaging, but it will be noticeable. 

VERMONT TONIGHT

In short, expect a relatively short lived, but rather dramatic storm in Vermont tonight and early Thursday. 

I hope you weren't planning on getting much sleep in the early morning hours between midnight and dawn. 

An impressive meteorological moment is setting the stage for a burst of snow, then a period of perhaps heavy sleet to rattle against your windows, then freezing rain in the eastern half of Vermont and finally rain. Some of that rain would come in the form of downpours that would roar on your roof.

In northwestern Vermont, high winds will howl with gusts in some areas pushing or exceeding 50 mph.

The pièce de rèsistance could well be loud thunder we might hear during all this weather chaos.  If it does thunder - and there's a decent chance of it - those rumbles and peals would be louder than you'd expect in a normal storm. 

The temperature inversion that will help create the sleet and freezing rain would  also deflect noise from thunder back down to the ground, onto us. 

The snow should arrive this evening, but quickly go over to a mix.  The atmosphere a few thousand feet overhead should warm remarkably quickly, gaining about 25 degrees - from subfreezing levels to well above freezing - with six or so hours. 

That'll drive the quick changeover from snow to ice. Especially since down here near the ground, things won't be able to warm quite as fast.

We're also starting from a somewhat colder temperature than what we thought earlier, so almost everybody gets a quick slug of snow. 

That will be followed by a period of sleet, which will also come down hard at times. Then, in western Vermont, we'll see a quick switch to freezing rain then rain. 

Over on the eastern half of the state, the freezing rain should hang on longer  Forecasters have actually increased the areas expecting near a quarter inch of ice. That's because the freezing rain will come down pretty torrentially at times, allowing for a quick accumulation. 

A few places might accumulate enough ice to create some power outages, but it won't be widespread. Northwest Vermont can expect a few outages as well, because of the strong winds overnight, and not so much the ice. 

There's plenty of lightning upstream with this system in Michigan, which is why the thinking is we'll have some thunderstorms, too. 

Like I said, this should be a quick hitter, so we're basically done with it by mid morning, maybe a bit later in the Northeast Kingdom.

Since the bulk of this mess is going by so fast, it won't have time to put down a tremendous amount of precipitation. Which means there's no flooding threat. 

THURSDAY

On paper, the storm shouldn't be over in the morning. You might expect a round of more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as a cold front approaches. But the air aloft will be too dry to really support that kind of thing, and there won't be enough instability to create the updrafts you need to produce storms. 

So we might end up with a few scattered showers, but not much else in the mild air that will engulf us tomorrow.  After a chilly Wednesday and our wintry, stormy night, it's back to spring tomorrow.  It'll get into the upper 50s to mid 60s. 

Winds will pick up again in the afternoon, this time from the west. Northwest Vermont, and some of the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts to 50 mph again for a few hours. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Friday is still looking nice enough, with highs in the , but the weekend still looks wet.  Most of us will just see rain Saturday and Sunday, but a few places in the mountains and Northeast Kingdom might see a little mixed precipitation.  

Very Scary Storm Day Underway For Large Parts Of Nation, Here In Vermont, Some Trouble Too

A severe weather outbreak with the risk of strong 
tornadoes is in the cards today. The area in pink and
dark red is the riskiest area. The same areas under
the tornado danger will also face severe flooding
this week. 

Today and the next few days will be among the most dangerous and potentially deadly weather days the United States has had all year.  

Up here in Vermont, things aren't nearly that dire, but we will have our own share of weather trouble. 

I'll start things off with how bad the national weather situation is, then get into what we will deal with in the Green Mountain State. 

Spoiler: Us Vermonters should consider ourselves damn lucky compared to many other areas of the U.S.

NATIONAL DANGER

When I opened the National Weather Service home page this  morning, the U.S. map already looked scary.

A tornado watch was already in effect in parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas, with a tornado warning or two thrown in. Flood watches covered a large area of the Midwest and South.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories stretched from  North Dakota, through the northern Great Lakes to northern New York and northern New England. 

This was just the beginning. Things will get a lot worse today. And stay really bad the rest of the week.

Tornadoes

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had declared a relatively rare high risk severe weather and tornado danger zone in the area where Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois come together.  This is an area with Memphis pretty much at the center A large substantial risk zones surrounded that area 

"Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3 plus tornadoes appear likely," the Storm Prediction Center wrote this morning. 

It's so bad that if I lived in a mobile home or other unsubstantial structure, I'd leave now before there are any watches or warnings. People in this area better be ready to get to their tornado shelters pretty damn quickly this afternoon and evening 

The very same region most at risk for destructive tornadoes today is also the epicenter of a terribly high risk of catastrophic deadly flooding over the next few day.

Extreme Floods 

Weather fronts associated with today's tornadoes will stall near the region until at least Saturday. Daily rainfall in a broad area centered near Memphis will range from three to six inches and possibly more in some spots. 

By tomorrow, another rare high risk zone has been declared in Memphis and the surrounding adjacent states: This is a high risk zone for flooding, issued by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. This means that terrible damage is pretty much inevitable. Even places that have never flooded before are at risk for inundation. 

The National Weather Service office in Memphis is already calling this a "historical rainfall event."

I brought up this flood risk in a post yesterday. If anything, expected rainfall totals might even go a bit higher than the foot or more I mentioned in the previous post.  This will be an ongoing thing starting today and going into next week. 

Even after the rain stops by Sunday, rivers in the region will be building toward potential record crests.

If possible, people who live in low lying areas in broad zone from roughly near Little Rock, Arkansas to Cincinnati, Ohio should be getting ready to leave, and if possible, moving possessions out. 

This whole thing will probably be yet another weather disaster costing $1 billion or more. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The National Weather Service ice forecast map shows
widespread ice in central and eastern Vermont. It
won't be enough to cause widespread power outages
but will cause some icy road conditions. 

Unlike all those other areas, Vermont is not headed toward a full-fledged disaster,  But there are several things that will keep us on our toes the next few days.

We've got snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, high winds, quick temperature changes and even thunder to contend with.  

The winter weather advisory that was in effect for just the Northeast Kingdom has now been expanded to include all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley and the western half of Rutland County. 

It'll cloud up pretty quickly today. Though temperatures will get well above freezing today, they'll crash temporarily with the onset of precipitation toward dark. So, we'll get a burst of snow this evening and tonight. 

Even in those areas with no winter weather advisory, that burst of snow and sleet overnight will make the roads quickly get slush and snow covered and slippery overnight. 

The Champlain Valley in particular is in for a noisy overnight and early morning. The snow should go over to rain after leaving maybe a dusting to 1.5 inches of snow. But the winds will really pick up.

A wind advisory has been posted for overnight in much of the Champlain Valley as gusts could go as high as 55 mph in hours before dawn. That could be enough for a few branches to come down, and maybe a couple power lines, too.  

During all that wind, the rain could come down pretty heavily at times and some rumbles of thunder could mix in with all this. 

Meanwhile, in eastern Vermont, the warmer air will have a harder time moving in.  The initial burst of snow will give way to another batch of freezing rain overnight and early Thursday. Between the initial wet snow, the freezing rain and some winds, there might be isolated power outages there, too, but nothing widespread. 

The main threat through the early part of the Thursday morning commute will be icy roads. 

The rain should taper off in the morning as temperatures rocket upward into the 50s east, 60s west during the day. The afternoon shouldn't actually be all that bad. 

Except: That wind advisory in especially the northern Champlain Valley will still be in effect. We expect another burst of winds, this time from the west, in the late afternoon and evening. That could cause a slight smattering of new power outages and a few more downed tree branches.

NEXT STORM

Friday looks nice, then the weekend, not so much. We'll get the tail end of that horrible flood I mentioned that's going to take place in the mid-South this weekend. 

No flooding for us, but the remnants of that system will swing several waves of low pressure our way. That'll be enough to set off some occasional rain all weekend. 

There could be a little snow and sleet at the onset of the new precipitation on Saturday, but this should be mostly rain.  It doesn't look like it will rain hard enough to set off any flooding worries. 

Beyond Sunday, the weather will turn colder.   Hard to say if there will be much precipitation in that colder air, but we'll at least see some snow showers, or cold rain showers.  There's a slight chance a stronger storm or two could form along the coast to bring extra snow during next week, but so far, the risk of that happening looks pretty damn low, which is great news.