Vermont Storms Caused Scattered Damage; New Damage Coming From Frost?

A big, tall thunderstorm looms over Vermont Wednesday,
as viewed from Colchester.  Severe, damaging storms
struck parts of central and Northeast Vermont.

 The thunderstorms and pockets of severe weather pretty much worked out as expected on Wednesday. 

Most of us got either a mild thunderstorm or in a few cases, got nothing at all. 

It seems like the main, worst thunderstorm trekked from Addison County to the Northeast Kingdom near Danville and Peacham in the afternoon and early evening.

Basically, it was a bowing segment that was the culprit, and this type of storm often leads to damage.  

A bowing segment is a relatively short line of storms, shaped like a backwards "C".  The apex of that "C" s where the strongest winds are.  Yesterday, that was on a line from around Middlebury to Danville.

The whole Northeast shared in the severe weather. And the Central Great Plains were busy. Overall, there were 28 reports of tornadoes yesterday, mostly in Kansas, Nebraska and Texas. There were a whopping 381 wind damage reports, mostly in the Northeast, including here in Vermont. 

Trees were down in many parts of Middlebury, then a few more reports of tree damage around Waitsfield. This was followed by quite a few power outages in and around Barre. Then a trail of new scattered damage was reported along Route 2 from Marshfield to Danville.  

Several thousand homes and businesses also lost power along this path. 

Only a few lucky people got some decent rains, which we still need. Those in the path of the severe thunderstorm got more than a half inch of rain. Most of the rest of us got a tenth of an inch of rain or less.

Northern areas of Vermont look to get almost no rain for the next week, unless some storminess to our south pulls some surprises.  

CHILLY: FROSTY AND SNOWY?

Up next, though, we're temporarily going back in time to April. That means the risk of a late season frost, a cold rain in southern Vermont and yes, the dirty four-letter word is back: Maybe some snow in the highest elevations. 

After a few morning sprinkles, it will clear up rapidly today, and be breezy and cool.  That sets us up for the frost risk tonight. 

It'll be a race between cold air coming in from the north and high clouds coming in from the southwest. If the clouds come in more quickly than expected, most of us, except those in the Northeast Kingdom, will escape the frost. If the clouds stay away, many more of us will worry about a frost and freeze.

I'd play it safe tonight anywhere in Vermont except right near Lake Champlain.  Cover those tender annuals you just planted, or if possible, bring them indoors.  If you already planted your tomatoes outside, well it sucks for you. Cover those up, too, and hope for the best. 

Tomorrow, Friday, will be remarkably raw for the end of May.  Highs everywhere will only make it into the 50s.  Northern areas might be warmest as they could see a little sun.  Southern areas of Vermont will cloud right up and temperatures will stay in the low 50s. Some mid and high elevations there won't even make it out of the 40s for highs. Brrrr!

There's a lot of questions about how far north the rain will get Friday and Friday night.  Most forecasts keep the far north dry, but even there, there's a slight chance of sprinkles or light rain.  South of Route 4, there could be a good half inch of rain, which would be good for them. 

Bad for them will be the mountains. There could be some snow at least on the mountain peaks Friday night.

Saturday looks chilly,  too, with southern Vermont being the coolest.   Some clearing is expected to break out Saturday afternoon in the north, and the strong May sun would "heat" those areas into the low 60s, which is still quite chilly for this time of  year. Southern areas might stay in the 50s.

We'll also have to watch for scattered night time frost again in the north, too.

Don't worry. This throwback to early spring won't last forever.   A warming trend will start Sunday and continue well into next week.  Long range forecasts  call for above normal temperatures through the first 10 days or so of June 

Severe Storms Will Be Scattered Around Vermont This Afternoon

 Forecasters are still calling for scattered severe thunderstorms across Vermont this afternoon and early evening, but they will really be hit and miss. 

Severe thunderstorms are a threat today in big portions
of the nation, especially in areas shaded in yellow,
orange and red. As you can see, we here in Vermont
are in that risk zone. 

Many, but not all the ingredients are there to create the severe storm potential, so it will be interesting to see how many develop. 

I'm almost 100% sure there will be some storms here and there with damaging winds and possibly hail, but how widespread those storms will be is an open question.

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes this morning in their forecast discussion, there are some mixed signals on this potential burst of strong thunderstorms.  

By early afternoon, there will be plenty of very warm, humid air in place, which is the needed fuel for the storms. Upper level winds are zipping along fast enough to be brought to the surface by any intense storms to bring damaging winds to the surface.

As noted yesterday, a little line of a disturbance called a pre-frontal trough is forecast to move through Vermont this afternoon, which would be the focus of most of the rough weather. You need a convergence, which is basically wind flow squeezing together to help create updrafts, to produce the necessary lift to create powerful, towering thunderstorms. 

The NWS says the convergence along this pre-frontal trough appears like it might be meh.   If that's the case, it could be hard to get a lot of severe storms going, but you'd still get some.  After all, there will be some convergence with this disturbance. 

Also, you'll want temperatures to fall pretty fast the higher in elevation you go to help set up those violent updrafts that produce severe storms.  That temperature profile, called lapse rate, is decent, but not spectacular today, so that helps make the intensity of today's potential weather difficult to assess as of early this morning. 

This forecast isn't cast in stone by the way. This convergence and temperature profile we should have over Vermont by this afternoon might well prove to be more than enough to power a fair number of intense thunderstorms.  We just have to wait to see how this plays out this afternoon.

Though the strongest thunderstorms today could occur anywhere in the state, best early guesses are the best chances might be south of roughly a Burlington to St. Johnsbury line. 

There is a bit of spin in the atmosphere as well, so there's still a slight chance that some storms could become supercells.  Those are storms that have a rotating and persistent updraft. They tend to be more severe than other strong storms.

Supercells sometimes - but not always - produce tornadoes.  There's a very very low chance of a brief spin up today in or near Vermont, but there's no guarantee on that. 

So, the bottom line: Keep an eye to the sky, and if you see dark clouds approaching, head inside.  Lightning from even a non-severe storm is dangerous, after all. 

Also, have a weather radio or some other reliable way today of receiving severe thunderstorm warnings. If you do get such a warning, get yourself into a really sturdy building and keep away from the windows until the storms pass.

In addition, storm reports help the National Weather Service improve on future forecasts.  If you see storm damage today, give the National Weather Service in South Burlington a heads up to what you see, but only when it is safe to do so.

A few spots might get a decent heavy, needed downpour out of today's expected storms, but overall, rainfall will be lackluster. Which is too bad. We need an area-wide soaker and we won't be getting that this trip. 

Us Vermonters are not the only ones under the gun for potential severe storms today.  Much of the Northeast is under the same conditions we are, so there will be widespread, if scattered reports of some storm damage today from Virginia to Maine. 

There's an even greater risk of damaging storms and potential tornadoes today out in Nebraska and Kansas.  I'm sure storm chasers are converging there this morning as there could be several tornadoes later today in that neck of the woods.  

Severe Storm Threat Tomorrow in Vermont/Northeast

Areas of the nation shaded in yellow are under a risk
of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The vast areas '
under the risk include Vermont, where damaging
straight line winds are the biggest threat.

Vermont,and many surrounding areas tomorrow are under the first real severe thunderstorm threat since March.  

A squirt of very warm, humid air and an approaching cold front will be the combination that could touch off the storms here, and in much of the rest of New England, New York, Pennsylvania and parts of Ohio.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area in its slight risk category for severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. That's level two of a five point risk scale. 

 Slight risk generally means there would be scattered reports of damaging wind or hail from the storms, with the possibility one or two intense storms thrown in there. 

As is almost always the case when our region is under any kind of storm threat, damaging straight line winds are the principal threat from Wednesday's potential storms. 

However, somewhat similar to back in March, when a tornado did touch down in Middlebury, there is an ever so slight chance that one or two storms could produce a brief twister.  I want to emphasis that a repeat of March is NOT likely, and chances of any kind of tornado anywhere in or near Vermont are very,  very  low. 

Still, as it stands now, there might be just enough spin the atmosphere to create a brief tornado in eastern New York and western New England,  Vermont included.  That would be true if any intense storms form ahead of a main line of storms that will be coming through ahead of a cold front.

Large, damaging hail could also come with the worst storms on Wednesday, but again, the biggest threat is straight-line winds. 

The storm forecast will surely be adjusted between now and tomorrow, so the areas forecast to be under threat from any kind of severe weather will shift from current forecasts. I'll of course have an update on this situation tomorrow morning. 

As the forecast stands now, you'll notice it getting warmer and by afternoon, somewhat more humid today as southwest winds begin to pump that summery air our way. 

It'll continue to get rather stuffy tonight. By tomorrow, humid air will be in place. The key to whether and how many severe storms we get Wednesday depends upon sunshine. If it's relatively sunny in the morning and early afternoon, that'll pump temperatures well into the 80s. 

Straight line winds from a severe thunderstorm caused this
damage in St. Albans, Vermont on July 30, 2019.
There could be instances of similar damage in Vermont
tomorrow if current forecasts hold. 

That warmth will help destabilize the atmosphere and prime it for severe storms. 

Very often when there's a severe weather threat around here,  a subtle line of extra instability, known as a pre-frontal trough, will come in from the west ahead of a cold front.  

That is expected to happen sometime tomorrow afternoon, and that will be the focus for most of the severe storms, if they occur. 

If current forecast holds, the severe storm threat will last into the evening, especially in eastern Vermont, which would be the last area in the Green Mountain State to see that line of boisterous storms. 

More storms will probably bubble up along the main cold front early tomorrow night, but few, if any will be severe. 

Under this slight risk, most of us won't see severe, damaging storms. But many of us will experience some gusty winds and lightning, so you'll want to be able to get quickly indoors if you see dark clouds approaching. 

Unfortunately, these storms don't look like big rainmakers. The more intense storms will have heavy downpours, but they won't last long.  Some areas that manage to avoid most of the storms will get almost no rain.

Too bad, we really need it. 

It'll get unseasonably cold behind this front. It means business.  It's possible there will be scattered areas of frost again Thursday night, especially in the Northeast Kingdom.

A storm coming by to our south will largely miss us Friday.  It will probably throw some clouds our way, but little or no rain. Friday's clouds, combined with cold north winds, will prevent many parts of Vermont from even getting out of the 50s for highs on Friday. 

Friday's system will be out in the Great Plains Wednesday, creating a severe weather risk greater than our own in and around Nebraska.  It'll produce more severe weather and some tornadoes in an area centered around Missouri on Thursday. By the time this storm gets to the East Coast, it could produce another round of severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast, but nothing anywhere near us. 

That's awfully chilly for this time of year but by no means totally out of whack for this time of year

The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty dry and sunny, with a slow warming trend for us here in northern New England. 

Vermont: Follow The Bouncing Temperatures; Air And Water

Irises in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens seemed to enjoy
the sunshine and change to cooler temperatures last evening

 That was quite a change in the air yesterday, wasn't it?

After a few days of record and near record heat, Sunday dawned warm and humid and summerlike.

That didn't last, did it? 

The cold front that blew through in the morning and afternoon was accompanied by some strong-ish gusts, falling temperatures, but sadly, little rain. Most of us received a tenth of an inch or less, so the dry, dry year we've been enduring continues. 

It wasn't just the air temperature that fell dramatically. So did the water temperature on Lake Champlain. 

The summery warmth of the past few days was accompanied by light winds.  That lack of wind kept water from deeper in the lake from rising to the surface through wave action.  The heat and the strong May sun had water temperatures in Lake Champlain go all the way into the 60s, which is way warm for this time of year. 

The sudden gusts of north winds Sunday - gusting to 40 mph over the lake - created what the National Weather Service in South Burlington is calling a very impressive upwelling event on Lake Champlain. 

What that means is those strong wind gusts displaced water which allowed cooler water down below to come up to the lake's surface. The lake water temperature was 66 degrees at 11:30 a.m. Sunday on the lake at Burlington moments before the cold front arrived.

By 11:30 p.m. last night, the water temperature was down to 48 degrees.

Air temperatures plummeted last night as well, and frost was reported this morning in a few places well away from Lake Champlain. The lowest temperatures I saw so far this morning were in the notorious cold spots. Island Pond was 30 degrees and Saranac Lake, New York was down to 28 degrees. The Banana Belt Champlain Valley was in the low 40s

This temperatures aren't all that unusual for this time of year, but it's been so summery lately it seems odd. 

Temperatures will continue to bounce all over the place the rest of this week.

Today is going to be late spring perfection with plenty of sun and temperatures rebounding really, really fast to the low 70s.

Readings will trend upward again Tuesday, reaching 80 degrees or so. By Wednesday it's back to summer, with temperatures up in the 80s with a fair amount of humidity around. 

Then another cold front comes in, dropping temperatures late week to levels probably even cooler than last night. 

Frost could be a worry again Thursday night.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday might not get past 60 degrees in many areas. 

Then it warms up again over the weekend. Up and down, up and down.

The only consistency is the lack of rain.  While the midweek cold front will cause quite a drop in temperature, rainfall with the front looks like it will be unimpressive. I suppose a few places that get bullseyed by a decent thunderstorm could get a quarter inch of rain or more, but otherwise, this will be another relatively dry cold front. 

The drought goes on. 

The dry conditions are probably helping make the temperatures a little more extreme, both on the warm and cold side. If the soil is wet, it leaches moisture into the air, and that moisture tends to prevent hots from getting too hot and colds from getting too cold. 

The lack of soil moisture now is probably allowing sunshine to boost afternoon temperatures to slightly higher levels than they otherwise would be.  The same issue is helping to create cooler nights than we'd otherwise have, as long as the night in question is clear and calm,  like it was last night. 

This phenomenon is why deserts tend to get so hot in the afternoon and still manage to get chilly at night.  We're not exactly a desert here in the Green Mountain State, but droughts are not only bad for crops, they can make us uncomfortably hot or cold, too.

A Decade Since Joplin, MO Tornado. It Still Leaves An Impression

Ten years ago this weekend, one of the deadliest and THE
most costly tornado in United States history 
struck Joplin, Missouri. 

 For weather geeks like me, particular extreme, if distant,  weather events leave a lasting impression and one that still haunts me is the huge Joplin, Missouri tornado of 2011.  

Yesterday, May 22 was the 10th anniversary of that monster storm - an EF-5 tornado that pretty much leveled most of the southern third of Joplin.  

The storm killed at least 158 people, making it the nation's seventh deadliest tornado on record.   The tornado injured more than 1,000 people and destroyed 7,000 buildings. 

Damage amounted to more than $3 billion dollars, making this the costliest tornado in U.S history. 

The tornado did all this in just the 38 minutes it was on the ground, from 5:34 to 6:12 .p.m. local time.  The twister was as strong as one can get with winds of over 200 mph. The damage was amplified even further because the tornado's forward motion was only 20 mph. That's slow for a tornado and kept the winds grinding over the same spots far longer than usual for a tornado.

The videos of the tornado are still haunting.  As it approached Joplin, the tornado was a mile wide and wrapped in rain.  It was so big it didn't look like a tornado, just a wall of black smashing into town. Once it passed, everything was scattered, flattened. 

The destruction was so extreme that the first people arriving into Joplin moments after the tornado departed were overwhelmed and helpless. The Weather Channel's Mike Bettes, who had been chasing the tornado, arrived in Joplin on the storm's heels. He understandably  broke down and wept on air at what he saw.

The scene in the hours after the tornado was beyond unreal. People swarmed over the wreckage looking for injured under the glow of a setting sun, dark, lightning streaked clouds overhead and continued pelting rain. 

Joplin recovered strongly after the tornado.  Some communities devastated by tornadoes never fully recover and lose population.  Now, more people live in Joplin than before the tornado. The city has a population of about 51,000.

Since Joplin, the National Weather Service and emergency managers are still struggling with making warnings effective an accurate.

The tornado warnings for Joplin that day were confusing. Initially, a tornado warning was issued for a separate storm north of the city.  When the new tornado that would wreck Joplin formed, people wrongly assumed the warning was for the twister that would miss Joplin to the north. 

As the Washington Post reports, some tornadoes still go unwarned.  One twister struck southwest of Dodge City, Kansas earlier this year and residents never received a warning.  Another tornado around Memphis clearly showed its signature on radar. People following the storm on Twitter noticed the tornado and contacted the local National Weather Service, and they were still late on warning the storm.

Lead times between the time a warning is issued and the time tornadoes struck has actually declined since the Joplin tornado, says Mike Smith in a Washington Post opinion piece.

In part because of the Joplin tornado, the National Weather Service has changed the language in its severe weather warnings.  There was concern that the language used in tornado warnings like the one issued 17 minutes before the Joplin tornado was confusing.

 Now tornado warnings, and warnings for other hazards like hurricanes and big flash floods - especially for particularly dangerous ones headed for populated areas, - use language like "You are in a life-threatening situation," and "Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter."

Though we've seen devastating tornadoes since, the United States has so far not seen anything as extreme as Joplin since that storm hit a decade ago.  We've been exceedingly lucky with these strongest tornadoes. 

There has not been an EF-5 in the United States since a deadly one in Newcastle and Moore, Oklahoma in 2013.

Which is good. We do not need any more Joplin-scale tornado disasters.  

Thank goodness, we'll never see a tornado of the scale of the Joplin disaster in Vermont.Still, we're prone to other extreme weather disasters. We had our own mega-disaster just three months after the Joplin tornado when the huge floods of Tropical Storm Irene ripped parts of Vermont apart. 

You never know where the next mega-disaster will hit. Just keep praying it's not you.

like the Great Floods of 192

August In May: 90 Degree Vermont Heat, Subtropical Storm, Western Wildfires

Subtropical Storm Ana spinning northeast of Bermuda
this morning. It's the seventh year in a row with a 
pre-season tropical system in the Atlantic

 Typically in August, we get bouts of near 90 degree heat here in Vermont.  August is also the time of year we keep a close eye on the tropics for potential tropical storms and hurricanes. Late summer is also when wildfires really start to blossom out West.  

All this is happening now, which is really weird for this time of year. Welcome to August in May. 

Here in Vermont, Burlington reached 90 degrees Friday for the second day in a row. It wasn't quite a record high, but still impressive for this time of year. 

Montpelier did manage a record high for the date on Friday. It got up to 89 degrees, besting the old record of 86 degrees set in 1977.

It'll be quite warm again today, but not quite as toasty as the past two days.  There's increased cloud cover, so that will hold temperatures down a bit.  

Still, most of us should make it into the 80s this afternoon. There will be a few hit and miss showers and rumbles of thunder today, but most of us will stay dry. 

A pretty strong cold front tomorrow will flush out the hot air and return us to seasonable conditions for a couple days anyway. A small percentage of Sunday's storms might reach severe limits with gusty winds, especially in southern and eastern Vermont, and over in New Hampshire, Maine and southern New England. 

More heat might briefly return to Vermont midweek.

But our August in May theme goes on elsewhere. The official tropical storm and hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1, but there's already a subtropical storm out there. 

Subtropical Storm Ana formed overnight northeast of Bermuda.  It's considered subtropical because it has characteristics of both a tropical storm and a regular old storm. Still, a subtropical storm is unusual in May.

Less unusual than in the past, though.  Every once in while, a tropical or subtropical storm would form in the Atlantic, but it was rare.  But with Ana forming overnight, this is now the seventh consecutive year a tropical or subtropical storm has formed in May over the Atlantic.

This particular subtropical storm is no real threat.  It won't strengthen much beyond its current 45 mph top winds, and should dissipate in the next couple of days. 

Another system that threatened to form into another tropical storm overnight in the Gulf of Mexico failed to get its act together. Still, this wannabe system will spread unwanted, heavy downpours into flooded eastern Texas.

Flooding sure isn't the problem out West.  As of earlier this month, 18 square miles of California had already burned so far this year.  That's ahead of the pace of last year, which turned out to be the worst wildfire season in that state's history. 

Multiple wildfires have already broken out in Arizona, well before the peak of their usual fire season. 

All of this strange May weather I described above might be the main feature, and not bugs of the rest of the summer and early fall. 

Long range forecasts are often unreliable but for what it's worth, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts a hotter than normal summer for most of the United States, including here in Vermont and the rest of New England. 

Also, most experts expect a busier than normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, though it won't be as extreme and hectic as the record season last year.

And, with drought widespread across the western third of the United States, the wildfire season out there is sure to be a humdinger, perhaps on par with last year's devastating season. 

The month of May doesn't always hold clues as to what the rest of the summer will bring, but warning signs do seem to be flashing toward a very interesting summer in the weather department. 

Record Heat In Vermont Yesterday As May Hot Spells Become More Common

Record heat and very dry air helped these late season 
daffodils to finally give up the ghost in the past couple of
days in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens. Don't worry,
pretty much everything else is thriving, with a little
help from irrigation

The temperature soared, somewhat unexpectedly, all the way up to 92 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Thursday breaking the high temperature record for the date of 91, set in 1975.

It was also the first 90 degree reading of the season, definitely hitting earlier than average.  There's a decent shot Burlington could hit 90 degrees again today. 

Temperatures in this hot zone were once quite rare in May.   There was some 90-degree May heat in 1911, and a spate of more days like that in 1975, 1977 and 1979.

There were a couple more May days in the 90s in the 1980s and 1990s. But lately, such weather has gotten a lot more common in May. 

Including yesterday, it's been in the 90s during May in Burlington six times just since 2010.  In 2017, we tied the record for the hottest May temperature of 93 degrees. Then, just last year, that monthly record in Burlington was broken with a high of 95 degrees. 

Could be yet another sign of climate change, huh?

Here in New England, most hot spells are accompanied by relatively high humidity, making the heat seem more unbearable. 

Yesterday's heat was bone dry.  The relative humidity was in the upper teens to low 20s, basically making the day feel like springtime in Phoenix.  Because of the dry air, I was able to work aggressively outdoors in the gardens without wilting - as long as I stayed in the shade. Too bad it was my garden plants wilting in the bone dry heat. 

Needless to say, the heat and arid air made the dry woodlands and fields of Vermont even more parched.  The forest fire danger was already high when we started yesterday, so it's probably even worse now. 

Today's very warm conditions will also be accompanied by low humidity. Like yesterday, there just might be one or two isolated thunderstorms in the mountains. Yeah, just what we need. Dry lightning to risk new fire starts.

There's a somewhat better chance of hit and miss showers or storms Saturday afternoon, but they won't amount to much. Temperatures will also be slightly lower, and humidity will creep up just a bit. 

A strong cold front is forecast to push through on Sunday, accompanied by a band of showers and storms. Again, these won't produce blockbuster amounts of needed rain. But we'll take anything we can get. 

Depending on the timing of the cold front and how much sunshine we can get before it passes through, there's a chance a few storms could be locally severe, with strong winds the main risk. At this point, the chances of severe weather is fairly low. 

The heat will get squashed to the south, at least temporarily, as we in Vermont have a delightful day on Monday, with much cooler temperatures, sunshine and low humidity. 

The Southeast will then suffer under a heat wave well into next week as that ridge of hot high pressure holds firm in that neck of the woods. 

The hot weather will make another run at us next Tuesday and Wednesday, though it's unclear how hot it will get. Still, 80s are a good bet. Another sharp cold front will come through Wednesday or Thursday to bring back the normal, cooler spring weather. Unfortunately, rainfall next week at this point looks unimpressive.

If Thursday's heat was a bit much for you, it was still better than the opposite kind of weather in the western states. Parts of Montana were hit with a late season snowstorm Thursday. 

It's common for the mountain summits there to have snow in May, but this snow extended into the valleys, smushing green trees and shrubs under several inches of snow in some towns. Cut Bank, Montana, which already has a reputation for dreadful weather, was down in the mid-20s Thursday afternoon during a day-long snowstorm. 

It's been super dry in Montana, so they needed the moisture, but come on, snow?  Another wet storm is due there over the weekend and early next week, but that one will be mostly rain. 

We'd love for those wet storms out there to head to Vermont, where the precipitation is desperately needed. We'll skip the snow, though, thanks.