Flash Flooding In A Drought? It Can Happen. Will It?

Despite rather dry conditions, there
is a low chance of some flash flooding
in areas in green. A bit more of a risk
in yellow areas.

Yes, yes, you've heard it already. It's dry out there in Vermont. We need the rain. I'm happy some rain is falling today. Bummed we have a hot, dry spell coming. Yada, yada, yada. 

So why is flooding mentioned today in the Vermont forecast?  

No matter how dry it gets, you can always still see too much of a good thing. If a beneficial downpour lingers in one spot too long, you can run into trouble. And it's possible that could happen today and tonight in a few spots 

Before we get too carried away with this, the chances of any flash flooding are on the low side. If it does occur, it will happen in relatively small areas. Most of us in Vermont will actually receive less rain than we'd want.  

There's also a low, but real chance of locally severe storms in central and southern Vermont too. 

Let's break it down. 

A warm front was lifting north through Vermont early this morning.  An area of light, sometimes moderate, decent rain was clipping northwestern parts of the state.  As I write this, it was raining steadily outside my St. Albans home. It's lovely to see the rain.  I spent the day yesterday stirring up dust in my gardens.

Northern Vermont, though, will probably miss out on the heaviest rains, although there certainly be more showers here through today and into tonight. (As of 7 a.m., Burlington had missed out entirely, just sprinkles there).

Today's interesting weather is slated for central and southern Vermont.

Wind flow and upper air disturbances seem to want to align just right later today and this evening to form the risk of training showers and thunderstorms. 

As a reminder, training storms are ones that line up and go repeatedly, one after the other, over the same spot, like boxcars on a freight train moving along the railroad tracks .

Training storms set up a narrow band where rain is excessive, and can lead to flash flooding.   Indications are this could happen somewhere through central New York and southern or central Vermont. The risk of flash flooding is fairly low,  but one worth mentioning to be on the safe side. 

It's hard to tell in advance exactly where, and even if, this band of training storms would set up to create the risk of flash flooding.  If it does, a few places could get two to four inches of rain, or even a tad more within a short period of time. 

This morning's best guess among forecasters about where this might happen would be in central New York, through the Lake George/Saratoga area and on into southwestern Vermont somewhere between Bennington and Rutland.   

There is a marginal risk of severe storms
today in central and southern Vermont.
Any bad storms will be pretty isolated.

Areas as far north as Montpelier and Wells River could still share in this excitement, but the risk there is lower.

Be on the lookout for this tonight if on the roads. This is a situation in which one town just some rain while the next town over gets deluged. You're driving along and everything's fine, and all of a sudden you encounter water from a flooding small stream gushing across the road, or the road is washed out beneath the water.

Also, some of the flash flooding, if it does occur, would hit at night, so it's harder to see if you're on the roads. 

Water from heavy downpours that do occur tend to run off quickly, so today's rain - even if it causes local flooding -  will be no drought buster.

By the way, a few thunderstorms in southern and central Vermont could become severe later today with damaging wind gusts. 

The Storm Prediction Center has this area under a marginal risk for severe weather, which is the lowest of five alert categories. Any severe storms will be isolated and pretty brief.

There might be some more interesting weather and skies Saturday evening as the long advertised heat wave begins to take hold. 

Indications are some severe thunderstorms, maybe even a couple tornadic ones, could form well north of the border in parts of Ontario and southwestern Quebec.

Toward evening, some of these storms could come near or cross the border into far northern Vermont. Certainly no tornadoes here, but there is still a rather low, but not zero chance of severe wind gusts to a couple locations in the far north. 

In any event, there could be a fun light show of lightning flashes for people in Vermont looking north toward Quebec Saturday evening. 

Enjoy The Comfort Now; Hot Stuff Still Coming To Vermont. West Hot, Too

Places like this will probably be a good place to be here
in Vermont this weekend and next week, as hot weather
is coming for an extended stay

 The days of cool early season comfort here in Vermont are numbered. 

The heat wave that's being advertised for the weekend and next week could be one for the record books. 

Temperatures were in the 40s to low 50s across the Green Mountain State this morning and the humidity was delightfully low.  

Despite increasing clouds this afternoon, today will be a comfortable one, too. Temperatures could spike up to 80 degrees in spots, but the humidity will stay pretty low. 

Don't get used to it.  By the weekend, a lot of you will be whining about the heat. 

It'll still be on the cool side tomorrow with some showers around. Gawd, we need those! But you'll feel the humidity start to creep up during the day as well.

From there, the thermostat cranks up.   Low 80s Friday, mid 80s Saturday, then the hot weather is on.  

Signals are as strong as ever that we're in for a long spell of early season heat.  Parts of Vermont could easily make it to an official heat wave - three consecutive days or more of 90 degree temperatures. 

Forecasters are still going conservative, as they should, to be on the safe side. The current predictions call for upper 80s to around 90 Sunday through Tuesday and likely beyond that. 

However, a few forecast models really spike the temperatures up, probably around Monday, when readings could enter record territory. (The record high next Monday in Burlington is 94 degrees).

As is typical in a New England heat wave, there is the possibility of brief, slight relief from a back door cold front or two trying to sneak down from eastern Quebec.  Even if any of those cold fronts reach us, which is in doubt, they'll quickly wash out and the hot weather will reign supreme. 

The humidity during this hot spell will be up there, but not as high as it can possibly go, so that should help a little. But the hot sun, coupled with only moderate humidity, will really dry things out fast.  Any beneficial rains we manage to squeeze out between late tonight and Friday morning will pretty much be for naught. 

Drought or almost drought conditions will roll on, and likely worsen. 

I don't whether the intense heat will last past, say, next Wednesday, but forecasters are pretty confident above normal temperatures will continue into mid-month around here. 

Of course this isn't only us that's in for the heat.   These domes of hot weather tend to cover quite a bit of real estate and this one is no exception.  It'll be hot this weekend and at least into early next weeks from the Great Lakes through the Northeast and on into much of southeastern Canada. 

A separate heat zone has also been torturing the West Coast, especially California in recent days. Widespread temperatures in the 100s have hit the Central Valley. This, in turn, has jump started what experts fear will be another horrible fire season out there amid a long-lasting, deepening drought. 

The heat wave building in the Northeast will redirect temperatures, in the nation, so California should temporarily cool off over the next week or so.  But that's unlikely to last all that long. 

Vermont May: Dry Again; First Half Well Behaved, Second Half, Not So Much

May was a dry month, but at least there was enough rain,
and some irrigation, to keep the seasonal flowers blooming

 We've closed the book on May's weather in Vermont, and we endured another dry month.

Except in southeastern Vermont, where precipitation was pretty close to normal, rainfall ran two inches or so on the light side. 

So, we keep dealing with what could be some dangerously dry conditions heading into the summer. Just since January 1, we're more than 3.5 inches on the dry side for the year in northwestern Vermont.  

To give a sense of how dry it is, I dug down more than a foot to plant a sapling near my house in St. Albans, Vermont the other day. It was pretty much dust at least a foot down into the ground. 

I expect some wells to go dry in Vermont this summer. 

Temperatures were almost uniformly about half a degree above normal this month, which basically means pretty close to average.

Remember, though, this is the "new normal." Starting in May, the "normal" temperature for any give month is the average from all the months from 1990 to 2020. Due to climate change, normal ain't what it used to be. It's higher. 

For instance, in this past month, the average temperature in Burlington was 58.9 degrees. Under the "new" normal, that works out to 0.5 degrees warmer than the new average.

Had we been operating under the "old" normal, this May would have been 2.6 degrees warmer than average, which was the mean for 1980-2010 under the old way of calculating. 

The first half of May, 2021 was pretty well behaved. Temperatures during that period never strayed too far from average, and we never came close to any records. We even had the only soaking rain of the month, on May 4-5, when most of us got close to an inch of precipitation. 

The second half of the month definitely went more rogue. Record-heat enveloped Vermont on May 2021, with Burlington peaking at 92 degrees on the 20th, and most other valley locations getting to, or at least close to 90 degrees. 

That was followed by a round of severe storms on May 26, which caused quite a lot of tree and power line damage, especially in a broad path from Addison County into the Northeast Kingdom.

Then, last weekend, late season snows hit the upper elevations of the southern Green Mountains. 

It looks like heading into June, we have new extremes in the offing. After some pretty seasonable weather and a welcome threat of showers on Thursday, it looks like another early season heat wave is building. It looks like a long one, with 90 degree temperatures starting to pop up by Sunday in Vermont and continuing well into next week. 

If  you haven't already, now is a good time to drag your air conditioner out of storage and get it ready for use.

Time will tell if this expected heat wave is a harbinger of another hot summer. Last summer in Burlington, Vermont was the hottest on record, with a mean temperature of 72.3 degrees for the period from June 1 through August 31. 

Hot summers have become a bit of a trend. In Burlington four of the five hottest summers have happened since 2005. Three of those top five hot summers have been since 2016. 

Very cool summers might be a thing of the past. The last time Burlington had a summer that made the top 10 coolest list was way back in 1968.

 

Summer Switch: Cold Memorial Day Weekend To Yield To Heat; Rain So Far Underwhelming

 A little moisture from overnight light rain coaxing a peony
bud to bloom in my St. Albans, Vermont garden this morning.
Rainfall, though was underwhelming.  Hopes for more
rain later this week before likely heat takes hold. 

One way to unofficially mark the start of summer is always Memorial Day, and this one in New England, including Vermont has been anything but summer-like.  

We've already mentioned the high elevation snow in southern Vermont Saturday.  Sunday was chilly statewide under overcast skies and at least spotty light rain. 

Today, Memorial Day, won't be much better.  The morning will be especially foggy and drizzly and perhaps showery. Western Vermont and on into New York might brighten up a bit toward late afternoon and evening. 

Temperatures though, will be stuck in the 50s east, with maybe low 60s west. 

Another way to consider the start of summer is what is known as climatological summer.  That starts tomorrow, June 1, and goes through August 31.  It's a convenient way for meteorologists and climatologists to measure and compare overall weather season to season and year to year. 

The first week or two of climatological summer in Vermont is increasingly looking hot. Tomorrow through Thursday, temperatures will only be near normal for this time of year, which is vastly toastier than it was over the weekend. 

That means highs will poke into the 70s for much of the week.  Signs continue to point to a strengthening Bermuda High, which indicates hot, humid conditions could take over by the end of the week and possibly go on for several days after that. 

Rainfall with this nippy Memorial Day weekend has so far been underwhelming at best in the northwestern half of Vermont. As of early this morning, Burlington had just 0.16 inches of rain and Montpelier a little over a quarter of an inch.  Although today will be rather cloudy and gloomy and chilly, only perhaps a tenth of an inch of additional rain will come through the Champlain Valley. 

At least southeastern Vermont has gotten some decent precipitation. Springfield has gotten more than an inch of rain so far this weekend. 

The only real hope for a bit more drought relief might come Wednesday night into Friday.  A warm front, marking the eventual start of the hot, humid weather, is forecast to slowly advance into Vermont during that time frame. 

If it works out as hoped, we'd get quite a few showers.  We wouldn't get an overwhelming amount of rain, but we'll take anything.  

Once that Bermuda High fully takes over by next weekend, the rain will shut off again, aside from the usual widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains which is typical during hot weather in New England. 

The latest long range forecasts for New England heading all the way toward the middle of the month suggest warmer than average temperatures and less rain than normal. 

Wild Differences In Vermont Weather Saturday; Big Changes Coming Statewide

There's that achingly tired old saying that if you don't like the weather in Vermont, wait five minutes, it'll change. 

Saturday in St. Albans, Vermont, some irises enjoy some
warm evening sun.....

On Saturday, the phrase should have been, "If you don't like the weather in Vermont, drive a short distance, it will change." 

There was indeed quite a contrast in weather across the Green Mountain State. Here where I am in the northwestern corner of the state, it was an absolutely lovely late spring Saturday. 

Skies were blue, there was a pleasant breeze, and temperatures got into the upper 60s, just a wee bit cooler than normal for this time of year. 

Drive to southern Vermont, go up in elevation far enough and you hit snow.  Atop Stratton Mountain, it snowed most of the day.  Snowflakes mixed with rain Saturday morning at elevations as low as 2,500 feet.

Many towns in southern Vermont never made it out of the 40s for highs Saturday afternoon.

The reasons behind Saturday's contrast were pretty unusual. 

very once in awhile, you'll have temperatures and weather differences in Vermont this extreme if there's a sharp warm, cold or stationary front somewhere in the state. 

This usually happens in the colder half of the year, when a weather front bisecting the state would give winter conditions to, say St. Albans, while it's 60 degrees or more in, say Bennington.

...while atop Stratton Mountain in southern Vermont, a nice
winter sunset was underway on (checks notes) May 29.
This is a screen shot from the Stratton Mountain web cam

What made Saturday's contrast in Vermont so odd was there were no weather fronts. The strong sun, near its peak intensity this time of year, made all the difference. Making Saturday quite a unique weather day in Vermont.  

In the far north of Vermont, strong, cool high pressure up in Quebec fed very dry air into those parts of the state. That meant plenty of sunshine to heat the atmosphere. 

 The air was also super dry for May. Dew points, a measure of how wet the air is, were only in the upper teens in far northwestern  Vermont.  That's exceptionally low for this time of year. 

he sun can heat dry air much more efficiently that humid air, so temperatures went up nicely in the afternoon. 

In the south, the state was locked under thick clouds.  That cool air from Canada made it into all of New England, but wet air from an upper level storm and a particularly cool pocket of air aloft kept things frigid. The thick clouds blocked the sun, so it stayed nippy.  

Clouds made all the difference in Saturday's weather
The northwestern tip of Vermont was in the sunshine,
will thick clouds socked in the south. 

The Vermont contrasts will even out today and tomorrow.  The northwest will still be a little warmer than the south today, as the day up north is starting with some sun. But that upper level low is re-orienting itself, and will send clouds and rain statewide later today and tonight. 

Everybody will be cool today, with highs in the 50s, with a few low 60s far northwest. 

The cool pool of air aloft is slowly modifying, so I don't expect any more snow. Maybe an outside chance of flakes at summit level, but that's it.  

It'll be chilly tomorrow, too, under lingering clouds and showers. 

More than an inch of beneficial rains are coming to the southeastern half of the state.  The northwest is in desperate need of rain, but those areas won't bet much.  Maybe a third of an inch or even less, especially north and west of a Burlington to Jay Peak line. 

There are signs that we are in for another type of big contrast:  The overall weather statewide might go from a March-like nip to full on summer. 

The ever famous summer feature, the Bermuda High off the East Coast looks like it really wants to strengthen and poke firmly west into the eastern United States.

If forecast holds, we could go from snow in the southern Green Mountains yesterday to oppressive heat and humidity by next weekend.  We'll keep an eye on that. 

 

Frigid Vermont Weekend, But Some Parts Get Drought Relief. Snow, Too!

Traffic cam from relatively high elevation Searsburg in 
southern Vermont fortunately shows rain, not snow, but
it's going to be a remarkably chilly, damp weekend 
and Memorial Day, especially in the southern 
half of the state

UPDATE:

While it's nice and sunny this morning way up where I am in St. Albans, Vermont, I can confirm snow HAS fallen on parts of Vermont. 

It was nearing 60 degrees by mid morning in St. Albans. It's actually turning into a nicer, warmer day than first though in the northwest corner of the state.

But web cam images from the summit of Stratton Mountain, in southern Vermont, showed snow falling this morning and a slushy accumulation on the ground. 

Mid-mountain cams showed a slushy coating on the ground at Stratton at 2,275 feet of elevation. Just before 11 a.m., it was snowing pretty hard and it looked like there was at least a couple inches of snow on the ground at the Stratton summit, at 3,875 feet above sea level

Video by @VermonsterWx  on Twitter showed snow flakes mixing with the raindrops this morning at his high elevation home not far from Readsboro.

Awfully late for snow in Vermont even at high elevations, but not unprecedented. 

On May 25-26 2013, a whopping two feet of snow piled up on Whiteface Mountain, New York and Jay Peak, Vermont got 18 inches. Elevations of just 900 to 1,800 feet above sea level got two to six inches of snow in that episode.

Nothing nearly like that is in store with this episode. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Boy, the Vermont forecast for the rest of the weekend just keeps going downhill, especially those who like warm sunshine. 

On the bright side, some parts of the state are now in for some drought relief. 

Screen grab from live video atop Stratton Mountain, Vermont
shows a full-blown snowstorm in progress shortly 
before 11 a.m. today. 

A few days ago, the outlook for this weekend was lots of sunshine and cool temperatures. Good for the mood, but the then-anticipated super dry air would make the drought worse and the forest fire danger rise. 

Now, nearly stalled storms in the upper atmosphere and near the surface are bringing clouds, very cold weather for this time of year and rain to at least parts of Vermont and surrounding areas.

The veil of high clouds over northern Vermont prompted a spectacular sunset last evening, but that's basically it for brightness for the rest of the weekend. 

In northern Vermont, there actually be an OK amount of sun today, and it will be a really a nice enogh day. 

With the sun peaking through, we'll manage highs north of Route 2 in the low 60s.  That's still cool for this time of year, but still ten degrees warmer than yesterday and far better than what's going on in southern Vermont. 

There, clouds will hang pretty tough today.  In some mid and high elevation along and south of Route 4, temperatures didn't make it past the upper 40s yesterday afternoon and won't crack 50 degrees until Monday at the earliest.

That's almost as bad for sensitive garden plants as frost. Tomatoes, cucumbers and the like crave sunshine, warmth and humidity, so this weather will stunt things for awhile. On the bright side, earlier forecasts of frosty mornings this weekend are now off the table.  

Rain will move south to north across Vermont on Sunday, with the day being a miserable washout in the south. 

The rain, or the risk of it, anyway, will continue Sunday night and well into Monday.  It looks like southern and eastern Vermont will get a nice, slow batch of soaking rain, maybe up to an inch or more of it in some spots 

This slow, gradual rain is better for drought busting that harsh, quick downpours, which tend to run off and not soak into the ground. 

It seems like northwestern Vermont, where I live, might well be screwed out of this needed rain once again. There's still a lot of questions as to how much rain will make it into the northern Champlain Valley, but early indications are not much.  We could get less than a tenth of an inch of rain, which isn't really helpful. 

There's still some hope some of the good rains will push a little further northwest. Let's hope so 

Earlier forecasts had said Monday would turn brighter and warmer, but no. Turns out we'll still be stuck under thick clouds and unseasonably cold daytime readings. Highs will be in the 50s Monday instead of the normal low to mid 70s we get this time of  year. 

The slow moving storminess might even delay the expected real warmup that was to have begun in earnest on Tuesday.  Still, the end of the week does look much more seasonable.  Shower chances ramp up late in the week, too, giving a little hope for needed rain in northwestern Vermont, and perhaps a little more drought-busting rain to the southern part of the Green Mountain State. 

Clouds Save Some From Frost, But Raw, Cold Memorial Day New England Weekend Looms

We covered up some of the more tender potted flowers and
plants due to a forecasted late season frost here in St. Albans,
Vermont. A few high clouds came to the rescue overnight,
preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost.

It was a battle last night between cold, dry Canadian air draining into Vermont and the rest of northern New England versus high clouds coming in from the west.

If the cold, dry air won out, there would have been widespread frosts and freezing temperatures. But for the most part, the high clouds won out.  

There were still quite a few areas of frosts and freezes last night, especially the further north and east you went. Those areas were the last to see the clouds, so they had more time to "bask" in the cold, dry "gift"from Canada. 

Some of the coldest readings I saw were 27 degrees in Island Pond, 28 in Gallup Mills and 30 degrees in Eden.

It stayed around 38 or 39 degrees at my  house in St. Albans, Vermont. We covered up our most tender plants, but it turned out to be unnecessary. No regrets, though. Better safe than sorry. 

Memorial Day weekend is traditionally the unofficial start of summer. We've already had quite a bit of summer like weather this spring.  But for this weekend, not so much. 

It will be more of a wearing fleece, drinking hot chocolate and staying indoors watching Netflix type thing than a bikini and beer beach party weekend, I'm afraid. That's especially true the further south and east you go. 

Today will be by all measures cold for this time of year. The clouds that streamed in early this morning will continue to thicken up. That'll keep temperatures down in the 50s for highs. Rain will start to spread northward through the day and into the evening, but not make it all the way through Vermont

Areas along Route 2 and north should stay dry, and spots between Route 2 and Route 4 won't get all that much rain tonight.  Areas south of Route 4 should get a decent, soaking, needed, but cold rain this afternoon and tonight. 

The summits in the southern Green Mountains and southern Adirondacks could see some wet snow tonight. There, I said it. Snow. At least it won't be widespread.  At least the clouds tonight will protect us from another frost. 

Saturday isn't looking much better. In northern Vermont, some sunshine will return.  We're just over three weeks away from the summer solstice, so the sun is super strong. That'll turn the North into a relative banana belt, with highs reaching at least the low 60s. 

That's pretty cool for this time of year, but not totally unreasonable. 

In southern Vermont, the clouds will hang on longer, so highs will stay in the raw 50s.  In higher elevation towns way down in the south, places like Woodbury and Searsburg, high temperatures will only make it into the mid and upper 40s.  Welcome to, um, November?

Saturday night, we'll have to look out for scattered frost again, especially north where there will be fewer clouds

Earlier forecasts called for a dry second half of the weekend, but that's being called into question now.  A storm is now expected to come closer to the New England coast than expected. That will throw rain back inland, especially Sunday night. 

It remains to be seen how far north and west the rain gets, but it looks like at least eastern and southern Vermont will get some precipitation.  It could work further northwest than that, too. We'll see.

We'll get back into summer next week. It will warm into the 70s early in the week but the air will stay dry.  By the end of the week, it's beginning to look like warm, humid air will settle in. You know the drill, highs around 80, air muggy enough to make you sweat if you do any activity outside. 

The weather forecast for this weekend isn't great, obviously, but as always, I can point out that it's been worse. 

On May 31 1961, the temperature in Burlington plunged to 25 degrees, tying the record at the time for the lowest reading on record. (You'd expect the coldest weather at the beginning of the month.)

Needless to say, crops and gardens were wiped out that year in interior New England. We dodged that bullet this year, for sure. 

There was also a widespread frost and freeze across most of Vermont on June 3, 1986 - awfully late in the year.  And in May, 1992, a three-day heat wave with temperatures around 90 degrees from May 21-23 prompted pretty much everybody to put their tomatoes in their gardens.

By May 25 that year, the entire state experienced a hard freeze.

As you can see, disappointing weather can hit very late in the spring here in Vermont. I guess that's why we're so hardy.