Phoenix, Arizona Grinds On With 100+ Consecutive Days Of 100 Degree Heat

It was over 100 degrees today (Thursday Sept 5) in
Phoenix, Arizona, the 102nd such day in a row.
The old record for such consecutive days was 76.
And there's no end in sight for this intense heat. 

As we usually see in here in Vermont during September, temperatures have gotten more comfortable than they were in mid-summer, with the dense humidity and hot days mostly if not completely behind us.   

Compared to many cities, including the example I'll get into, Vermont is always lucky when it comes to heat. 

One Vermont weather station did get above 100 degrees on one day this summer. And on a few days, the heat index nudged above degrees. But that was it for triple digit heat. 

This compares to very unfortunately Phoenix, Arizona. It's always ridiculously hot there in the summer, but this is beyond what even they are used to.

On Tuesday, they had their 100th consecutive day in which the temperature reached at least 100. Until this year, Phoenix never had a year with more than 76 consecutive 100 degree days. So this is painful, even for them. 

Even worse, an intense new heat wave is hitting the western United States this week, including in the fair city of Phoenix. An excessive heat warning was issued for much of southern California and Arizona - including Phoenix, through Friday. 

Forecast highs in Phoenix were 114 today and 111 Friday. 

The heat, of course is dangerous. As the Washington Post reports:

"Last year, heat deaths increased 50 percent from 2022, reaching a record 645 people in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. This year, 150 heat deaths have been confirmed by the government and an additional 440 deaths are under investigation." 

Not surprisingly, this long 100 degree streak contributed to making meteorological summer (June 1-August 31) the hottest on record, with an average of 98.9 degrees. The average high for that period in Phoenix was 110.4 degrees. The average low as a stifling 87.5 degrees.  

This is the second year in a row that Phoenix endured a spectacularly hot summer. Last July, Phoenix set a record for the hottest average monthly temperature for a U.S. city, as July, 2023 saw an average of 102.7 degrees. (Death Valley had hotter months, but that's not a city).  

Phoenix last year also had a record 31 days in a row in which the temperature reached at least 110 degrees. 

I guess climate change is making a brutally hot city even more unlivable. 

Normal highs in early September around Phoenix are still around 102 or 103 degrees, but you usually have a few days with highs "only" in the 90s by now. In fact, seasonal monsoons, with their clouds and thunderstorms, sometimes cause highs to stay below 100 degrees in Phoenix on a few days in late July and August 

It doesn't look like the 2024 daily 100-degree streak in Phoenix is going to end anytime soon. The National Weather Service forecasts daily highs at or above 100 degrees at least through next Wednesday. 

The Weather Channel forecast doesn't give Phoenix a sub-100 high temperature until September 15.

The late season heat wave out west is of course affecting plenty of other towns and cities. All the way north into Washington State, highs for the next couple of days are forecast to reach near record highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s. 

Officials are worries that the dry heat, along with erratic winds, could touch off destructive forest fires in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains. 

New Signs Of Autumn Amid Beautiful Vermont Weather

 Sunny days are of course common in Vermont in the summer. 

Rose Mallow blooms beneath a blue sky Wednesday evening
The whole day featured wall to wall sunshine in Vermont
and we're going to do it again today. 

But those sunny days almost always feature a few puffy clouds to decorate the sky. 

 In the heat of say, July, there's almost always enough moisture, enough updrafts to create those scattered clouds, even on days when the humidity is low. 

We had on Wednesday another sign that summer is waning fast in Vermont. It was the fact that, after the morning fog burned off in spots, the sky was blue and for most of us, completely cloudless.

If we're going to have a sign of autumn, it might as well take the form of a gorgeous day, right?

In the spring and the first half of autumn, you get these high pressure systems with dry air throughout pretty much all the layers of the atmosphere. The sinking air associated with these strong high pressure systems tend to squelch any clouds.

We awoke to crystal clear skies again this morning. Most if not all of today will be a rerun of Wednesday's great weather: Bluebird skies warm after a comfortable early morning and low, low humidity. 

This type of weather is pretty frequent in many Vermont Septembers, so it  won't hurt to hope this trend continues. 

We do have at least an interruption in this spectacular weather coming up.  Unfortunately, it's hitting on the weekend. 

A deep trough of low pressure is about to carve itself a spot over the Great Lakes, and swing a cold front through here sometime on Saturday. It looks like it create a period of rain on that day. 

It'll be another of many signs of autumn. The rain will almost certainly not come in the form of lines of thunderstorms like you get in mid-summer. Instead, it will be a period of perhaps soaking rain, not showery stuff. 

Following the cold front - and again this is a  classic autumn pattern - the core of the cold upper level low will pass overhead Sunday and Monday. That'll cause mostly cloudy skies, light showers and cool temperatures.  

Satellite view from Wednesday afternoon shows 
cloudless skies over Vermont, along with most of 
the rest of the Northeast. Just a few wisps of
wildfire smoke visible, but not much of it.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says there could even be a wet snowflake or two during this on the highest peaks of Adirondacks and possibly northern Green Mountains. 

This wouldn't amount to anything if it happens, and a couple wet snowflakes on mountain summits isn't weird for this time of year, but it's a sign of the season.

By the way, the date in which the record was set for the earliest snowflakes and for measurable autumn snow atop Mount Mansfield have passed. 

The earliest snow flurry on record up there was on August 30, 1976. The earliest measurable snow was the 0.3 inches that fell on top of the mountain on September 2, 1967.

If you're a glutton for punishment and want early snows down in the Champlain Valley, don't hold your breath. The records for early snows in Burlington, according to the National Weather Service are as follows:

Earliest trace was on September 23, 1950, and the earliest measurable was the 0.1 inches on September 30, 1992.

For those of you who prefer the bright sunny weather we're having this week, signs are sort of pointing toward another spell of gorgeous weather once we get into the middle of next week. Fingers crossed!

Japanese Palm Tree Gains Big Fans After Surviving Punishing Typhoon

 There's something about certain trees that I become deeply emotionally attached to.

This palm tree in Japan, nicknamed Yasshi, was whipped
violently recently for hours by a typhoon. It was on a 
live camera feed and people became intensely interested
in its survival. It ended up doing fine and is
still standing after the typhoon. 

As a child, there was an immense sugar maple on our property. It had five main branches, each about the size of a mature old maple, sprouting from the most wide tree trunk I've ever seen. 

 My dad built a tree house in it for me. I'd spend hours up there, decompressing from the effects of a high strung mom. And inventing in my head adventure movies starring Yours Truly. 

My sister Lynn and I spent countless hours under that tree. In the fall, we'd jump off the swing into an immense pile of leaves from that maple. 

I still cherish the memory, I wept when it was cut down by the power company because they didn't like how close it was to their wires.

As an adult, I have three immense poplar trees in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. I call them the triplets. Like all close friends, they can be a pain in the butt, like when wind storms prune some dead twigs from it, or it extends annoying roots into my summertime raised beds.

But the triplets are an ingrained part of my life. I can hear them outside now, a gusty wind whooshing through the thousands of leaves up there. 

All this is to say that humans love trees. Most of us, anyway. 

Which leads us to Kyushu, Japan. It's the nation's most southwestern-most main island, which was just hit by Typhoon Shanshan. 

It was a nasty storm, as typhoons usually are, causing devastating winds, floods and storm surges.  

As the Washington Post reports, thousands of people were drawn to a YouTube live stream showing the coast of Kyushu, in the throes of Typhoon Shanshan. In the video's foreground was a palm tree, whipping back and forth violently, always seemingly on the verge of snapping under the force of the hurricane winds. 

But the tree never succumbed. The typhoon's forward motion was slow, meaning the island - and the tree - were subject to horrendous winds for a longer period of time than people experience in most typhoons or hurricanes.

(Typhoons are what hurricanes are called in the western Pacific Ocean).

As WaPo reports, the tree's performance won worldwide fans. "The dramatic display of resilience won the hearts of thousands online, many of whom flooded the comments to root for the tree. - known affectionately as "Yasshi" - to survive."

The spoiler here is the tree indeed survived. The typhoon moved on and the live stream after the storm showed the tree with its fronds battered by the wind, but standing tall. 

There's something about trees, especially ones under duress, that we all root for. When I watch all those severe storm and tornadoes on YouTube (I'm a hopeless weather geek after all). I always root for the storm tossed trees to somehow survive.

When iconic trees die, or are killed, or are endangered, we all collective mourn. Some examples:

Hawaii Banyan

An enormous 150-year-old banyan tree in Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii was badly burned during last August's   catastrophic wildfire that destroyed most of the tourist city.  People seemed almost more upset by the potential loss of the tree than the deaths and destruction in Lahaina.

People have been tracking the fate of the banyan tree ever since.  As the Associated Press reports, the sprawling tree survived and is coming back to life, gradually turning from ash gray and black scar he'd to green and growing back.  All thanks to intense efforts by arborists and volunteers. 

Half the tree's branches died in the fire. But arborists carefully removed those branches so the tree would redirect its energy toward the branches that might survive. Heavy irrigation and care has resulted in new green leaves and branches sprouting. The tree will survive.

British Vandalism Victim

International outrage erupted when some complete morons in 2023 cut down the Sycamore Gap tree in Britain. It was one of the most photographed places in the world. The tree sat between and at the base of two steep slopes. 

Two people were arrested, a 16 year old and man in his 60s. But they were subsequently freed. Two men in their 30s were then charged. They face fines equivalent to the estimated worth of the tree, which was about $785,000. No motive has been provided. 

Eight tiny shoots have since emerged from the stump of the tree, suggesting it might regenerate itself in some form. 

Washington DC's Stumpy 

The Tidal Basin in Washington DC is famed for its annual spring cherry blossoms. About 3,700 cherry trees put on a spectacular display every spring, usually in mid to late March. 

Climate change has made the Tidal Basin even more tidal. Sea level rise has caused more flooding, which affected some of the cherry trees.  The salt water damages the roots, and the trees get sick and eventually die. Earlier this year, the National Park Service cut down about 160 cherry trees due to rising tides and damage.

One of those trees was Stumpy. 

Stumpy, as a certain tree was dubbed, became something of a national treasure.  The salt damage made it gnarled, stunted and misshapen. Think the Charlie Brown Christmas tree, except worse. 

Stumpy's persistence and unique look won it tons of fans.  It was chopped down this year along with the 160 others. But right before that happened, Stumpy put on a blossom show that was its best in years. 

That tree wanted to go out with a bang.  God bless it. 

Meanwhile, in Japan, Typhoon Shanshan is long gone. Yasshi can recover in the tropical sun until the next typhoon comes along. 

Video: Yasshi the palm tree survives a typhoon. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Yes. Vermont/Northeast Dangerous EEE Outbreak Likely Influenced By Climate Change

 Just great.

Eastern equine encephalitis, spread by certain mosquito
breeds is in Vermont. Climate change increases the risk
that this dangerous disease would be present. 

Like many Vermonters, I now find myself fearing mosquitoes instead of just being annoyed by them. 

THE EEE OUTBREAK

Eastern equine encephalitis, or EEE is here.  It's still a pretty rare disease, but it's often fatal or permanently debilitating to its victims. 

A New Hampshire man has died of the disease, and another person in Vermont's Chittenden County tested positive for EEE.  

The virus is turning up in lots of mosquito samples, especially in northwestern Vermont. Residents of several towns in that part of the state are being told to stay indoors from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. to avoid possibly infected mosquitoes. 

This whole thing is getting pretty disruptive. 

Big outdoor events are being canceled.  In Burlington, the sold out Oktoberfest on the waterfront, which had been scheduled for September 20 and 21, has been canceled over EEE fears. Ticket holders for that event are in the process of being refunded. 

Also in Burlington, Summervale, a weekly food and entertainment event in the Intervale, canceled its final two days on August 29 and September 5 due to the threat.

The Intervale is along the delta of the Winooski River right before it enters Lake Champlain. The Winooski flooded this summer, leaving many pools of standing water which bred mosquitoes. I did a little volunteer work with flood recovery at one of the farms down there in late July. I could NOT believe how thick the clouds of mosquitoes were. 

Schools in the communities that are high alert - think Colchester, Burlington, Swanton, Alburgh - are trying to move games and matches to safer areas. 

Other outdoor events are looking for indoor alternate spaces. 

CLIMATE CHANGE

Our warming world does not cause EEE. A virus does.

But climate change creates the conditions in which the disease can get a foothold and spread. 

Grist reports that climate change is a major driver of the disease, especially in the Northeast. That's for a variety of reasons. 

Earlier last frost of the season in the spring and later first autumn frosts give mosquitoes a longer window in which to breed. (The last time Burlington had subfreezing temperatures was on April 26).

Hot, humid summers encourage mosquitoes as that makes their metabolism rise, so they'll want to feed more. We just got through our third hottest summer and by many measures the most humid on record. 

Finally, heavier rains create more mosquitoes. We just got through one of our rainiest summers on record. The more rain you get, and fewer dry spells in between the showers, the more stagnant pools of water you get. That's where mosquitoes breed. It doesn't help that rivers and streams flooded back in July. As those floodwaters receded, they left big pools of standing water. Perfect for those little buggers to multiply. 

The hot summer made those pools of water warm, which reduces the incubation period for the type of mosquito that spreads EEE. Shorter incubation periods mean more mosquitoes. 

Additionally, warmer winters can make some mosquito species survive more effectively. Last winter was the warmest in record in the Champlain Valley. 

This year's EEE problem in Vermont will go away when the first hard freeze hits later this fall. Of course, we don't know know exactly when that might happen. 

But climate change is working against us even there. A warmer world increases the chances that are first big subfreezing cold blast of the autumn will hit later than it historically did. Last year, Burlington didn't have its first freeze of the season until Halloween. That was the latest or second latest initial freeze of the season on record, depending on whether you consider where the temperature was recorded. 

EEE tends to come and go in multi-year waves. But climate change helps increase the likelihood of future outbreaks, since the world - and Vermont - will continue to warm. 

Maybe this year will buck the trend and give us an early freeze. We can only hope. Meanwhile, wear long sleeves and pants, and pass the bug spray, please.  

Was Chilly In Vermont This Morning But Nothing Compared To Pre-Climate Change

Don't worry, this was NOT my garden this morning. But,
as forecast, a couple of the coldest hollows probably
had frost this morning. In the past, we've had colder
weather than this in early September. 

 By any measure, it was definitely cooler than average in Vermont his morning. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 30 degrees just after 6 a.m. 

As of this 6:30 a.m. writing, I'm not sure whether any frost developed in the Northeast Kingdom, as it's too early to get temperature reports from that area. 

Elsewhere, pretty much every in Vermont started the day in the upper 30s to mid 40s, just as had been forecast. 

At last check around 6 a.m. Burlington was down to 46 degrees, the coolest it's been since June 16. It was 43 degrees at my perch here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Yes, it's definitely cool for the season, but it's been colder. Burlington's record low for today is 38, so we're not even close. 

Frosts have hit all months of the year in the very coldest hollows of Vermont, and in the Adirondacks. 

Compared to late August and early September cold snaps in the distant past, today was no great shakes.  Cool spells in the current age of climate change are not your grandfather's  chilly spells. 

I have the receipts. 

Examples abound.

According to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book:

On August 31, 1965, it got down to a wintery 25 degrees in South Londonderry, 26 in West Burke and 27 in both Northfield and Chelsea. Talk about an early end to the growing season! Burlington got to 35 degrees that day. It was the coldest temperature on record in Burlington, but that record was tied in 1976.

That August 31 brought temperatures to 29 in Northfield, Sutton and Woodstock. 

In the first week of September, 1967, West Burke got into the 30s for six days in a row. Not happening this year. 

In 1963, it was 28 degrees in Chelsea on September 5, and 30 degrees in West Burke on both the fifth and the sixth. 

Those were surely not great tomato growing years in Vermont. 

Any frost in the cold hollows today was a one-off, at least for now.  A warming trend will begin today, It'll still be on the cool side, with highs today within a couple degrees either side of 70. Tonight will be cool, but not as chilly as last night. By Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, highs temperatures will reach the 70s to around 80. 

There also isn't any real sign of a return to hard core summer weather, either, for at least a week or more. Another spell of coolish weather will probably return by next Sunday or Monday, as it looks now. 

First Real Autumn Cold Front Came Through Sunday To Help Us Flip The Calendar

A last blast of summer sun as an autumn-like cold front
approached St. Albans Bay, Vermont late Sunday afternoon.

 Sure, I've already unofficially declared summer over, but if you want to really mark the change of seasons, look for what I consider the first autumn cold front of the season.  

It's the one above all cold fronts that mark the real shift of seasons. It's the one that convinces you that summer is really over. 

This year's First Cold Front Of Autumn came through Sunday evening, at least in my opinion.  These autumn fronts are sort of an annual rite of passage, if you will. 

Oh, sure, we'll have a few more days in which temperatures will feel like summer. But the consistent heat of summer now feels like a thing of the past. 

The result of yesterday's cold front  is a crisp Labor Day today, with highs only in the 60s, perfect to hunt apples at your friendly area orchard. Tonight, the first frost advisories of the season go into effect in the Adirondacks and far corners of Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, way up by Island Pond, Canaan and Bloomfield. Those are traditional Vermont cold spots anyway. 

The timing of this year's autumn cold front was exquisite. Right during the Labor Day weekend, which most people consider the unofficial end of summer anyway.  Most of Sunday was hard core summer, with temperatures going right up there into the 80s with moderately high humidity. A lovely beach day. 

Until the cold front arrived in northern Vermont very late in the afternoon and evening. 

Up at St. Albans Bay, the first cool breezes arrived well before the darkest clouds and showers came through. The wind abruptly shifted from southwest to northwest, creating some confused looking waves on the lake. 

As the temperature dropped through the 80s and 70s, the line at the creemee stand across the street got shorter and shorter. A few brief final bursts of sun caused the trees and the algae-filled bay to briefly glow tropical green, as if summer was trying in vain to hang on. 

Clouds, dropping temperatures and showers put an end
to a possibly last summer weather day of the year in
St. Albans Bay, Vermont Sunday. 

The clouds coming in were a summer/autumn hybrid too. Some towered up into those puffy thunderheads, typical of summer. But those were quickly replaced by the bland overcast of the colder seasons as the rain approached. 

After fairly brief, sort of heavy rain showers,  the front passed, and a last burst of now cool evening sun burst through, setting off dramatic rainbows. The rainbows almost like a fireworks display of sorts, saying goodbye to Summer, 2024. 

There's a decent chance that the 86 degree temperature we saw in Burlington Sunday could be the warmest we'll see until May or even June if next spring proves chilly. 

More cold fronts will come in now through winter, bringing ever colder blasts of air as we go through the season. 

For this week, those of us outside the cold hollows will awaken to an autumn like Tuesday morning in which most of us will see dawn temperatures between 38 and 48 degrees.

Tuesday will be another bright, cool-ish day.  Later in the week, it'll try to warm up again almost toward summer levels. But another front and or storm system should cut that balmy air off at the pass.  Next weekend's weather still looks uncertain, but early hints suggest more cool, showery weather by then.  

Still, September is usually a pretty pleasant weather month. The heat of summer is mostly over, but there's still plenty of time to enjoy the outdoors before nasty winter weather hits in a few months. 

Video: Footage of a change of seasons, mostly taken at St. Albans Bay on Sunday. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Confirmed: August And Summer As A Whole In Vermont Hot, Wet

 Hot and wet.

Dark thunderstorm clouds invade blue sky on a humid
day over Colchester, Vermont on August 4. That
turned out to be typical weather for the entire month.

That's definitely how you can describe the summer of 2024. We knew that already, but the final figures are in to prove it. 

TEMPERATURES

The August figures are in and we had another warmer than normal month, at least if you look at all the historical averages dating back to the 1880s.

Even so, August was the "coolest" relative to normal of the three summer months in Vermont this year.  Overall temperatures for the month were near what has become a new normal. 

"Normal" temperatures are the average of the period from 1990 to 2020.  This is moved ahead every decade. Until 2020, the "normal." was the average between 1980 and 2010. You see how it's updated every decade.

Under this arrangement, Burlington was actually a touch cooler than this new normal in August, 2024, with a mean temperature of 70.4 degrees compared to this so-called "normal" of 70.7 degrees.

But this August was decidedly warmer than the 20th century average in Burlington. In the past 132 years, I could only find 29 Augusts that were as warm or warmer than this year. And only fifteen of those were before 1990.

Elsewhere in Vermont, August came in just a bit warmer than the new average, mostly by a degree or less. 

The month was humid in general, and you can see evidence of that in the numbers. Humid days tend to keep high temperatures suppressed a little bit, and overnight low temperatures on the higher side. 

Across Vermont, average high temperatures in August, 2024 were a bit below the "new normal," But average lows for the month were solidly on the warmer than average side. 

RAINFALL/OTHER EVENTS

Precipitation was generous across Vermont in August, 2024, but thankfully not nearly as torrential or destructive as in the previous month. 

Still, the Northeast Kingdom did have some more flooding in early August, and more heavy rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Debby around August 9-10. Over those two days. St. Johnsbury had 2.78 inches of rain. 

Debris from a roof that blew off a house in St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on August 9 due to high winds produced by
former Hurricane Debby 

For the entire month, pretty much everyone was about an inch on the heaver than average side, except ultra wet St. Johnsbury, which had 6.11 inches of rain in August, about two inches more than normal. 

We did get a scare with Debby on August 9 to 10, as forecasts prior to the storm indicated Vermont might be in for another devastating flood. Instead, the severe flooding hit Pennsylvania, western and northwestern New York and on into Quebec.

High winds with that storm,  however, did cause quite a bit of damaging in the Green Mountain State, especially in and near the Champlain Valley. 

Like in many recent summers, we also dealt with occasional bouts of wildfire smoke during August, but the pollution wasn't nearly as bad as last year. 

FULL SUMMER

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 to August 31. This year, there's some pretty impressive records for the season.   .

St. Johnsbury  - very remarkably - had both its hottest and wettest summer on record, reports the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

It's especially wild since records in St. Johnsbury go back to 1894. The longer the period of record at a weather station,  the less likely they are to break big records like seasonal temperature and rain. The average summer temperature in St. Johnsbury was 70.3.

St. Johnsbury's wettest summer record was so off the charts I still can't believe it. From June 1 through August 31, they had an incredible 29.48 inches of rain over the three months, including that insane 17.15 inch total for July. 

St. Johnsbury's wettest day in history was the 8.08 inches that fell on July 30. Even if you subtract out the July 30 from this summer's rainfall, St. Johnsbury would still have had its wettest summer on record.  

Burlington tied with 2018 for the third hottest summer on record, with a three-month average of 72.1 degrees. That means four of the top five hottest summers in Burlington have been since 2018.  That's quite a trend that certainly hints at climate change. 

It reached at least 90 degrees on 14 days this summer. It's looking really unlikely we'll see any more such days, so that should be the total for the year. Only 13 other summers in Burlington since the late 1880s had as many or more 90 degree days than that. 

Montpelier had its third wettest and sixth warmest summer on record in 2024. 

Vermont managed to see a rare year in which at least one place managed to get to at least 100 degrees. North Springfield, Vermont, reached 101 degrees on June 21. They had quite a heat wave, with daily highs on June 19-21 at 98, 99, and that 101.

Speaking of quite a heat wave, Lebanon, New Hampshire had the most consecutive 90 degree days on record as each of the 12 days from July 6 through 17 reached at least 90.  Lebanon is a good proxy for White River Junction since it's right across the Connecticut River. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Long range forecasts, as I always like to point out are prone to error. But they often do provide hints as to what's coming up, even if they're not always reliable. 

In recent years, summer weather has extended well into September, another sign of climate change. 

This year, though, the first half of September looks like we'll be a little closer to autumn than usual. Temperatures over the next two weeks are forecast to be near or a little cooler than average across Vermont. 

Longer range forecasts from NOAA, however, hint at better odds of a warmer than average autumn overall.  NOAA gives the best chances of a toasty autumn to the southern Rockies and New England.   

That's also consistent with recent autumn. Seven of the ten warmest autumns on record in Burlington have occurred since 2011. Records go back to the 1880s.