Yet ANOTHER World Record Hottest Month Recorded In April

Once again, hard to find cold areas (blue) that were chillier
than the 20th century average around the world in April. 

The world just had a record hot month, something that's been happening for nearly a year now. The April data is now in from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, and the month was toasty again. 

Says NCEI:

"This is 0.18 degrees C (0.32 degrees F warmer than the previous April record set most recently in 2020, and the eleventh consecutive month of record high global temperatures. April, 2024 marked the 48th consecutive April with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average."

The hottest areas compared to long term averages are northern South America, western Africa and the stretch of Atlantic Ocean between those two continents. Other notable hot spots relative to average were northern Canada, areas around the Indian Ocean, places near the border between Asia and Europe and eastern Asia.

As usual, cold spots were hard to come by. Parts of Antarctica were cold, which has been a trend in recent months. Other areas that came in slightly on the cool side (but not by much!) include central Australia, the southern tip of South America and a few lonely spots in the far North Atlantic. 

Overall, it was an early spring. The snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere was the lowest on record. 

Since the first four months of 2024 were record warm, NCEI gives the entire year a 61 percent chance of being the warmest on record, even beating the boffo warm 2023. NCEI also says that 2024 is a sure bet to score at least in the top five warmest. 

El Nino has ended, which tends to boost global temperatures. That, combined with climate change, helps explain why the past 11 months have been globally the hottest on record. 

The opposite La Nina  is taking hold which tends to cool the world just a bit. That's probably why NCEI is hedging its bet on this year being the hottest on record. I've seen some climate change observers suggest the run of global record warm months will end in about June. 

We shall see!

UNITED STATES

 For the Lower 48, April was the 12th warmest on record. No individual states had their warmest April on record, but a few scored in the top ten. 

The January to April period in the U.S is the fifth warmest on record. 

I could not find one county in the Lower 48 of the
United States in April that was cooler than average,
White counties were near normal, Orange ones
were warm, 

For the second month in a row, cool temperatures were hard to come by anywhere in the United States. 

That's odd, because even in a warm month, you usually see at least a small section of the nation with cooler than average temperatures. 

Not in April, at least not really.  A found quite a few areas that were pretty close to average, mostly along the West Coast, northern Plains and Florida. But a county-by-county breakdown of April temperatures revealed no areas that were noticeably cool for the month. 

The warmest areas relative to average were mostly in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. 

April in the U.S. was on the wet side, but not by a huge margin. It was the 41st wettest out of 130 years of records. In addition to the warmth, the Ohio Valley was among the wettest parts of the U.S. relative to average Parts of the central Plains and western Gulf Coast were also on the soggy side. 

Five more disasters costing $1 billion or more were added to the growing list for 2024. That brings the total documented so far to eight this year. 

The new ones included severe storm outbreaks in February and early April, along with two winter storms, one in the Northwest and one in the central U.S. during January. This list does not include the huge tornado outbreak in the nation's middle in late April.

Though that disaster is virtually certain to have cost more than $1 billion, proper assessments aren't done  yet. I also suspect a tornado outbreak earlier this month, and the epic storm in Houston Thursday evening will also each cost more than $1 billion.  

New Waves Of Storms (And Heat!) In U.S. Will Vermont Be Included In That?

The severe thunderstorm and tornado risk ramps up
again this week for the nation. This map shows the
biggest risk centered on Kansas today.

 The storms keep rolling along in the United States this weekend and the upcoming week.  As if Houston wasn't enough, multiple rounds of severe weather and tornadoes are ramping up again today and should continue most of the week. 

And, since we're getting closer to summer, dangerous heat is beginning to make inroads, too. 

I'll have a separate update on the Houston mess, so we can get right into the forecast. A Vermont update is further down, after we do the big picture. Spoiler for Vermonters: We hope you like summer. 

TODAY

One always important ingredient for big thunderstorms is heat and humidity, and that will be a thread through this week's storm risk. 

Way down in the South, the heat is horrendous. Miami had a heat index of 112 degrees yesterday, by far the worst on record for May in that neck of the woods. 

Parts of Texas will roast in 100 degree heat today. 

Some of that heat is feeding north toward a storm organizing somewhere near western Nebraska. Some of that heat is heading north toward Kansas, where it will encounter the effects of that storm. The result is an expected outbreak of intense storms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put central Kansas under a moderate risk of severe weather today. That's the second highest in a five point alert scale, meaning this is pretty serious. The biggest risk is straight line winds which could reach hurricane force in some areas along with giant hail. 

Tornadoes are also pretty likely, but I question whether it will be a big outbreak like Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa suffered in late April. 

Tomorrow's severe threat once again focuses on Kansas and Nebraska, so they're not out of the woods yet.

An even bigger and more widespread severe weather outbreak seems likely Tuesday as heat and humidity continues to stream into the eastern half of the U.S.  It'll interact with storminess coming in from the west to set off a big severe zone from Oklahoma to Michigan.

So far, it looks like Missouri and Iowa might take the brunt of things on Tuesday, but of course the forecast might also be adjusted. 

Severe storms and tornadoes are likely to continue in different parts of the Plains, Midwest and east Wednesday, Thursday and probably beyond that, too. 

The preliminary tornado count for this year is 820, which is pretty pretty far above normal for this point in the spring, and it looks like we will add to that list of twisters in the coming days. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Lilac season is in full swing in Vermont now, but it
will probably go by really fast due to hot, humid
weather for the season this week. There's
  a chance of severe storms this week, too, but 
things will have to line up just right for that to happen.

So far in 2024, Vermont is one of only three states to have not reported any severe thunderstorm winds, damaging hail or tornadoes. (New Hampshire and Maine are the other two states).

There might - or might not - have been local wind damage from isolated strong storms last week in Vermont, but there have been no reports from the public, so the count is zero. 

That might change this week, as we have some chances of severe weather. But whether or not that actually happens depends. Things need to come together just right to do that. 

As noted, heat and humidity are a key ingredient for strong storms. We're pretty confident it will be hot and humid for the season this week.  Temperatures should get into the 80s Monday through Wednesday, and maybe into Thursday. The humidity will gradually creep up, too. It might actually get to 90 in a couple spots Wednesday. 

The question is whether the oppressive weather for this time of year will touch off anything major. 

A weak disturbance on Tuesday has a shot at interacting with the summer warmth to set off some storms. If that happens, one or two might be briefly strong to severe. It's impossible to know exactly where this might occur, but if it does, it's more likely in northern Vermont. 

As it looks now, Wednesday looks quiet and hot, but just the fact it will be so summery could yield some mountain updrafts that generate local storms. Probably nothing widespread, but one or two places could get blasted by a torrential downpour and gusty winds.

The wild card is Thursday. A cold front will be coming in by then. If it passes through in the morning, the chances of severe weather are low. If it comes through in the afternoon or evening, that will give the atmosphere a chance to become much more unstable. Then, thunderstorms would have an opportunity to become strong to severe. Stay tuned! 

By Friday, the air will have become much cooler and drier, which would prevent any further big thunderstorms. 

May 18, 2023 In Vermont: Winter. May 18, 2024 In Vermont: Summer. Then What?

Brown, ruined blossoms after the devastating
Vermont freeze on May 18, 2023.

 Exactly one year ago today, May 18, we were waking up to icy carnage in the gardens and the orchards.  

After an early, warm spring, temperatures fell to record lows. Most of us were well down into the 20s. A few places were in the teens.

Blooming apple orchards, vineyards, strawberry patches, gardens and even whole trees were decimated by the freeze. It was officially an agricultural disaster.

The freeze was the opening salvo in what turned out to be a summer of misery. After a brief late spring drought, clouds and humidity set siege for the rest of the summer. That wet air allowed frequent, torrential downpours which led to some of the most destructive flooding in Vermont history. 

By contrast, this morning, after a sort of warm spring, temperatures at dawn were on the warm side for the season. Most of us were in the 50s to low 60s, pretty far from the freezing mark. And we're in for a true summery stretch of weather. 

The contrast between the two years began in earnest May 17. 

On May 17, 2023, high temperatures in Vermont  never got out of the 40s, and snow flurries blew around in the chilly pre-freeze wind. Burlington managed a high temperature of just 48 degrees, a bit cooler than the average low for this time of year. Montpelier had  high of 42. 

On May 17, 2024, Burlington saw its first 80 degree reading of the season. The end of the day was punctuated by a small, brief, summer-like thunderstorms. Looking ahead, we have several more days during the upcoming week that should also reach into the 80s.   

By contrast, apple blossoms are doing just fine
in this frost-free May, 2024. 

I definitely hope the placid stretch of weather we're seeing this year is a precursor for a quiet summer. 

As of now, no super extreme temperatures are in the forecast, though expected temperatures in the mid-80s by Tuesday are awfully far above normal. (The record high on Tuesday is 92 degrees.)

At the moment, soil moisture seems neither particularly wet (except maybe in the Northeast Kingdom), nor excessively dry. 

Last year we went from drought in early June to floods by early July. 

We might see hints of wildfire smoke over the coming days and weeks from Canadian wildfires. But at least so far, no big dense smoke attacks seem to be in the offing, like they were on occasion from late May through July last year.

On a post I put out on May 4, I referred to the Goldilocks whether we'd been having - not too hot, cold, wet or dry. That Goldilocks trend has continued since then. 

I hope it continues for the rest of the summer, but who knows? Long range forecasts call for an oppressively hot, perhaps humid summer. I hope not. 

Wouldn't you just love to have just one standard, old fashioned Vermont summer for a change? You know, afternoons in the low 80s with minimal humidity, warm enough to hit the swimming hole, but  comfortable enough for a hike or garden work. 

How about some nice July starlit nights with lows down in the 50s? The kind where you leave your windows open and sleep comfortably in the cool fragrant summer air coming  into the house?

In this age of climate change, that might just be a pipe dream. Extremes are happening everywhere. Ask the folks down in Houston. Or flood-ravaged Brazil, Or heat wave-addled Asia. 

I just figure the other shoe will drop, and us Vermonters will suffer through something ranging from unpleasant to dangerous in the coming months. 

Maybe I'll be wrong. Maybe Goldilocks will bring us that idyllic comfortable summer, 

A guy can dream, right?

 

Houston, We Have A Problem. 4 Dead After City Pummeled By One Of U.S.'s Most Expensive Thunderstorms

 This had to be one of the worst-aimed intense thunderstorm I've ever seem.

Screen grab from KHOU news video shows 
numerous windows blown out of Houston high 
rises after Thursday's intense storms,

An extreme thunderstorm packing winds of up to 100 mph blasted straight through Houston Thursday evening, killing at least four people. Countless windows blew out of downtown skyscrapers, showering streets with glass and debris. 

The four deaths reported so far are obviously tragic, but I'm pleasantly surprised we haven't heard of more so far. This hit one of the most highly populated areas in the United States. That gave the potential for a lot of casualties. 

Power was out to nearly a million homes and businesses in the metro region.  Walls caved in, high tension electrical towers toppled and many streets were blocked by fallen trees and wires. 

Mayor John Whitmire urged people to stay home today while power lines and debris is cleared. Schools are closed, and power companies say it will take days or a week or even more to restore all power.

I worry about more deaths and injuries in the coming days in Houston. Not from more storms, but the aftermath.  People are always getting hurt chain sawing trees or even killed coming in contact with live wires.

Additionally, it's going to be hot and humid in Houston through at least the next seven days. Those with health issues with no air conditioning because of a lack of power could succumb to heat stress,

Houston was under a tornado warning as the storm approached and there might have been one or more tornadoes embedded in this mess. But it appears most of the damage was caused by a wall of straight line winds that tore through the city. 

The city is the nation's fourth largest with 2.3 million people. The entire metro area has about 7 million residents. With so many targets for the storm to hit, damage will be extreme, with a good potential for this to be another $1 billion disaster.

This will become one of the nation's most expensive thunderstorms.  That honor currently goes to an extreme derecho that hit Iowa in August, 2020, with damage estimated at around $11 billion.

The Gulf Coast states have been plagued by storms this week that are inflicting the type of damage hurricanes usually do, although the destruction isn't quite as widespread as hurricanes typically cause. 

Cities like Lake Charles and Slidell, Louisiana and Tallahassee, Florida have suffered big wind and tornado damage.

Record flooding hit some rivers in eastern Texas earlier this spring. That flooding was renewed by torrential rains yesterday. 

Meanwhile, predictions are for an intense hurricane season later this summer and autumn. If any of those hurricanes target the Gulf Coast, they would compound the damage suffered this spring. 

Canadian Wildfires Flared Again Past Couple Days; Now Hope That Storm Will Quiet Things

After plenty of fire weather this month, a storm
heading into Alberta and Manitoba is temporarily
suppressing fire weather. Thursday, the yellow, orange
and especially red areas had high fire danger. The
high danger areas are smaller than they were 
earlier in the week, but will likely grow again
as dry weather eventually returns. 

 When I wrote about the return of Canadian wildfires the other day, I noted the city of Fort McMurray, devastated by a 2016 wildfire, got a scare that a new fire was coming before shifting winds saved the day.  

Within a couple days after that, the wind shifted back toward Fort McMurray, setting off a new round of evacuations from a city on edge. 

CNN tells us:

"Roads out of Fort McMurray were crammed with evacuating cars Tuesday as an out-of-control 51,000 acre wildfire crept toward the city's edge.

 The approaching flames conjured up terrifying memories for residents who lived through the 2016 fires, which forced 90,000 people to evacuate and wrought billions of dollars in damage to homes and businesses."

So far, it looks like it won't be as bad as 2016. Then again, the fire season is young. 

"I want to recognize the anxiety that this brings, certainly to those residents that were here in 2016, and to those where this is their first experience and have heard the stories,” said Regional Fire Chief Jody Butz. “We are confident that we have the resources to defend these areas, but we need people out of harm’s way.”

CNN reported other big fires in Manitoba that forced at least 500 evacuations. 

 A large, slow moving storm system will temporarily tamp down the fires for the next few days, but that's just a Band-Aid. Chances are it will turn warm and dry again, and those fires will ramp up.

Whether Canada repeats the extreme fire season remains to be seen, despite 2024's fast start to the fire season. In many years, large storms cross through central Canada in June. If that happens, and that's a big if, the storms would dump plenty of rain on a large drought-stricken area.  Those rains, if they materialize will temper the rest of the 2024 fire season, at least somewhat. 

Still, climate change has left Canada more prone to heat waves, dry spells and drought than it once was. So the trend is toward more spring and summer fires up there, even if individual years prove quieter. 

That means more smoke potential for us. This year and every year going forward.

 I noticed a touch of smoke in the atmosphere in northern Vermont Tuesday evening and part of Wednesday, though it seems to have cleared up for now.  

The die is cast, though.  Canadian wildfires will continue to send haze our way off and on all summer. We can only hope the smoke isn't as bad as last year. 

A Few Storm Surprises Again In Vermont Wednesday As We Get Into "Summer Lite"

Leaves on the trees are growing toward full summer
green, while spring blooms continue to keep the 
landscape pretty in Vermont 

 For the second day in a row, a few spots in Vermont defied forecasts of a blah weather day Wednesday and produced some surprises.  

While most of the state just has light showers, if that, the Northeast Kingdom suffered a bit of a deluge, and a flood warning needed to be issues last night for part of that area.

The culprit was the that same stalled weather front that caused the interesting and photogenic storms in northern Vermont on Tuesday.

Yesterday, southern Vermont just had a fairly steady, light dull, rain. 

The front slowly worked its way north during the day. But before it did so, sunshine was able to heat far northern Vermont and destabilize the air. The result was some persistent showers and thunderstorms in the Northeast Kingdom.

They weren't severe, but they had some pretty good downpours that lasted the better part of the afternoon and evening. The result was enough rain to raise flooding fears on small streams and creeks up that way, and along the east branch of the Passumpsic River. 

I don't have any confirmed reports of flooding up that way, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots had high water. 

For some reason, far northwest Vermont, which was under pretty much the same weather regime as the Northeast Kingdom, ended up having a nice, rather sunny day for most of Wednesday before clouds covered the sky in the late afternoon. It ended up raining at night, but there wasn't much. Only a trace was registered in Burlington. 

The heavy rain picked up again north of the front in northern New York, where a local flood warning was also issued. 

The moisture from the rains yesterday and last night formed some patchy dense fog overnight. Be careful on the roads early today as there might be some dense patches of murk. Any fog should disappear by mid-morning. 

NO NEW NIGHTMARE

Wednesday's flood warnings do not mark the start of a nightmare flood summer, like last year. At least for now if not the entire summer. 

Any showers that form today should be light, or at least non-threatening.  Not all that much rain is in the forecast through Tuesday. Several of those days might well be rain-free. We're not looking for a parade of deluges.

Extended forecasts through two weeks sort of lean toward above normal rainfall, but that prediction is not cast in stone and so far, there's no signs of deluges. At least not here in Vermont. 

We have entered what I call  "Summer Lite" though. Temperatures the past couple of days have entered summer-like territory, even though it's not full on summer heat. Nights have been especially mild, with the type of overnight lows you'd expect in the summer. 

It will actually get a little warmer over the next few days, with spots reaching the low 80s  Sunday through Wednesday.

That's not to say summer has firmly arrived. There's still time for chilly temperatures and even frost. Saturday, for instance, is the anniversary of that awful, destructive freeze we had last year. (Forecast lows this Saturday morning are in the 50s, so history won't repeat itself). 

Meanwhile, make sure the shorts and t-shirts are ready, you're need them. 

Some Interesting Storms In Vermont Tuesday; Structure Would Do Oklahoma Storm Chaser Proud

A much weakened version of what had earlier been a
rotating, severe warned storm approaching the
Champlain Islands. This now garden-variety storm
is pictured here near St. Albans. Though tame,
it still showed evidence that it still had a little rotation.

 As expected, scattered thunderstorms developed in Vermont Tuesday afternoon. Also as forecast, just a couple of them became severe or close to it.   

Not very much harm was ultimately done, but the two or three big storms that did form created drama. 

One storm in the Northeast Kingdom dumped tons of hail and created some street flooding in and around Lyndonville. Images on social media showed a torrent of hailstones covering lawns and walkways in the region around 3:30 p.m in the afternoon. 

The largest hailstones were a little smaller than penny sized so luckily it wasn't enough to dent cars and such. 

In the evening, a thunderstorm quickly erupted in New York State south of Plattsburgh and quickly became intense enough to prompt the National Weather Service office in South Burlington at 5:44 p.m. to issue a severe thunderstorm warning. 

The warning covered areas in and around Plattsburgh and across parts of Grand Isle, Franklin and a sliver of Chittenden County. The warning alerted us to the risk of 60 mph gusts and quarter sized hail..

Luckily that didn't happen. But storm chaser Tommy Horn captured some wild photos of the storm as it prepared to go over Lake Champlain. 

You can Horn's images of the storms here and here. The photos would do an Oklahoma storm chaser proud.

Horn's photos showed a great gush of rain, of course. It also showed what appears to be a rotating section of the storm that I think could have potentially created a brief tornado. It didn't for reasons I'll get into in a second. 

There was apparently enough shear in the atmosphere to help Tuesday thunderstorms spin.  Shear just means wind is changing speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. That's one ingredient to create severe storms and tornadoes

However, there wasn't enough instability in the atmosphere, or enough energy to sustain severe storms for any length of time, or allow them to last long. 

But anyway, Horn's images  shows a rotating wall cloud type feature in the storm. A wall cloud is a lowering section of a severe thunderstorm that spins and could potentially create a tornado. 

One of Horn's images sort of shows what looks like a bit of a funnel, but Horn said that was just a scud cloud rising into the storm. There was never any funnel.  

The storm did produce hail to near penny size in Peru, New York and a 38 mph wind gust in Plattsburgh. 

Next, the storm ran into a buzzsaw, namely Lake Champlain. The lake is quite cold this time of year and creates an area of stable air. When the storm went over the lake, it quickly fell apart in the stable air and weather warnings were lifted.

The remnants of the storm continued on its expected path, right toward my house in St. Albans, Vermont.  It partly regenerated once it hit land in Vermont and escaped the cold clutches of Lake Champlain. But never came close to becoming severe again. 

Still, the now not spinning remnants of that wall cloud passed over my house as just a low, dark gray jumble of clouds. However, you could see as the storm departed St. Albans that its entirety still had some rotation to it, even though it would never come close to causing any severe weather, never mind any kind of funnel cloud.

The storm just cause a brief downpour, a couple of rumbles of thunder and a very few pea-sized hailstones as it passed by my place. 

In a way it was the perfect storm - visually stunning but not really anything damaging or dangerous. 

Today's weather won't be as visually stunning. Low overcast and fog this morning was breaking up into an overcast. .We'll have an increasing chance of showers today. That's because the cold front that caused yesterday's weather is coming back as a warm front. 

The showers this afternoon will be pretty frequent, but also on the light side. No sky drama, though. 

Looking ahead through the weekend, the forecast has trended drier than previous runs, so most of the time will be fine for outdoor activity. There will be just be limited chances of showers. Certainly no rotating storms and wall clouds for the next few days.