Fire And Ice: Risk Of Wildfires Today, Frosts And Freezes Tonight, Tomorrow Night

Very low water along the Brewster River in 
Jeffersonville, Vermont this week. High pressure
today and tomorrow is raising the risk of frost,
continuing the drought and keeping
a high forest fire danger going. 

 As expected, a cold front blew through last night, and even as the sun was breaking through the clouds this morning, temperatures were still falling. 

The cold air lagged, and it was still unexpectedly kind of mild this morning. It was still 70 degrees in Burlington at midnight and near 60 at dawn. 

But, as we go through the day, temperatures will struggle to get into the 60s this afternoon. 

It actually rained in a few spots overnight, too, though the word "rain" is probably a bit strong here.  Sprinkles came down in Burlington. 

Here in St. Albans, we were a particular "wet" spot with a whopping 0.01 inches of rain. 

Those paltry amounts of course make no difference with our deep drought. As the day goes on, skies will clear, winds will stay breezy from the north, and humidity will crash to low levels once again.  

That's a recipe for increased fire danger. Since everything out there is parched, any spark could trigger a wildfire. "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain," the National Weather Service announced in a special weather statement that's in effect today. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has rated the fire danger as high for the past week or so. For today, they've upgraded the risk to very high. 

FROST/FREEZE

The cool breezes will calm down tonight. Skies will stay clear, and the low humidity will allow temperatures to drop. We're in for the most widespread frosts of the season so far. 

A freeze warning is in effect overnight and early Saturday morning for Essex County, Vermont, in the far corner of the Northeast Kingdom. The freeze warning is also up for the Adirondacks, far northern New Hampshire and northwest Maine. In those places, the temperature will fall to between 25 and 30 degrees, so that will definitively end the growing season in those places.

Here in Vermont, a frost advisory is up for everybody in the northern half of Vermont except the Champlain Valley.  Temperatures will fall to between 30 to 35 degrees in these areas by dawn Saturday.  You'll want to bring in vulnerable plants, or cover them up with sheets and such to protect them.  

Or, if you have a vegetable garden, today would be an excellent day for what I call your Emergency Frost Harvest, in which you can take in anything that is vulnerable. Grab those tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers while you can! 

There's no frost advisory in southern Vermont yet, but I expect quite a few patches of frost down there, too.  

Keep those sheets handy, because you'll need them Saturday night and early Sunday. Saturday will be a bright, cool, crisp, autumnal day. The fire danger will still be around, as humidity levels will be even lower than today. But Saturday's winds will be light, so that will minimize the spread of any wildfires. 

If anything, Saturday night and the hours around dawn Sunday might be even colder than tonight. There might even be some frost in the Champlain Valley well away from the lake.   It depends on whether any late night light breezes kick in or not. 

After Sunday morning, temperatures will turn warmer again, so the frost threat will go away for now. If your plants survive the frost this weekend, they'll last into October. The overall weather pattern will lean warm through then. 

Of course, your plants might not survive the ongoing drought. It's not really going to get any better.  

WEAK RAIN PROSPECTS

The good news is looks like it's finally going to rain next week. We think, anyway. The bad news is the amount of rain will be completely inadequate to help in any meaningful way with the drought.  

But, at least some rain is in the forecast. The predictions are iffy, but early guesses give us a tenth to a third of an inch of precipitation next Tuesday through Thursday. That's far short of what we need, but we'll take anything.  At least a lame rain would minimize the fire danger temporarily. 

We'll have more details on next week's rain chances as we get closer to the potential weather system. 

To Nobody's Surprise, Drought Gets Much Worse In Vermont/New England

The U.S. Drought Monitor, updated this 
morning, shows worsening conditions in 
Vermont. A new sliver of extreme
drought (red shading) has popped
up in the Connecticut River Valley.
Darker orange is severe drought and
lighter orange is moderate drought. 

 The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the press this morning, confirms the depressing news:  

The drought in Vermont and in much of the rest of New England continues to get worse. 

It hasn't rained since the last weekly report came out, so the news isn't surprising. But it underscores how bad things are getting. 

All of Vermont except the extreme south and extreme northwest is now in severe drought, according to the weekly monitor.  

Last week, 59 percent of the state was in severe drought with the rest being in moderate drought. This morning's report shows 78 percent of the Green Mountain State in severe drought. 

A small area of extreme drought that was confined to a limited portion of western New Hampshire last week has expanded. 

A sliver of the central Connecticut River Valley in Vermont between about Windsor and Newbury is now considered to be in extreme drought. 

The expanded area of extreme drought also now extends across central New Hampshire into southwest Maine. New Hampshire is arguably the hardest hit state so far in this Northeast drought. Around 73 percent of the Granite State is in at least severe drought, up from 52 percent last week. And 23 percent of  New Hampshire is in extreme drought, up from just 7 percent last week. 

Drought is expanding in northern New York, too. It covers all of eastern parts of that state along the Vermont border and is extending into the Adirondacks and parts of the St. Lawrence Valley. 

Actually, despite a few wet areas, the continental U.S. is getting drier. Last week, about 36 percent of the nation was in drought. This week, it's 41 percent. 

THE FORECAST

Very low water levels along the Lamoille River in 
Jeffersonville, Vermont Tuesday. 

Things continue to look grim in terms of rainfall around Vermont. I suppose the next week will be wetter than the one we just had. 

Only because most of us didn't get a drop of rain in the past seven days, and there's actually chances for sprinkles over the next week.  

Sprinkles aren't going to cut it, so the drought will continue to worsen. 

It means wells will continue to go dry, water in rivers and lakes will continue to recede from in some cases already record low levels.  At least six river gauges in Vermont were recording record low levels on Tuesday. 

And the fire danger will continue to rise. 

After the widely scattered sprinkles that might or might not hit tonight, that's it for rain until at least next Tuesday. 

I continue to be unimpressed with the forecast for next week and its rain chances. A storm that will be cut off from the main jet stream looks like it might get suppressed to our south. That would mean yet another system that promised to provide a little rain could just miss us entirely around next Tuesday or Wednesday. 

Sound familiar?

Other potential weather fronts coming after that look like they might be under-perform as well. Long range forecasts taking us into the beginning of October also paint a dry picture for Vermont and surrounding areas.

This drought has gotten incredibly frustrating, persistent, damaging and depressing.  I honestly wonder when it will even really rain again.  

Vermont Frost/Freeze Prospects Increasing For Friday, Saturday Nights

There's a good chance at least some of us will see
a frost or freeze in Vermont early Saturday morning
and again early Sunday morning. Not everyone
will get that cold. So far, the Champlain
Valley looks safe, but we'll update as 
information becomes available. 

On top of the droughts, we now have to worry about frosts and freezes.

Though I suppose on the bright side, a risk of a frost is very normal for this time of year in Vermont. 

For once, it's not another weird weather thing being plopped down our plate. 

I'll skip the drought news in this particular post. I want to wait until the latest U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later this morning, so watch this space for a big drought update before noon today.

FROST CHANCES

So, OK, let's get into the frost prospects. 

I'll start with a spoiler: Not everyone will see their growing seasons end this weekend. But the frost will be more widespread than anything we've seen yet this early autumn season 

Judging by how things will feel out there today, you wouldn't think a frost risk. It'll feel like the Good Old Summertime with highs in many warmer valleys topping 80 degrees. During droughts, the lack of moisture can make daytime highs warmer than they would be had it been wetter. 

Which means there's a chance that today's high temperatures could over-perform. I wouldn't be shocked if some warmer valley reach the mid-80s.  That would be just a couple degrees short of record highs for this time of year. 

Not only do droughts make hot days hotter, they can make cold nights colder. Moisture coming up from the ground can blunt falling temperatures through higher humidity and fog, especially this time of year. A lack of moisture can allow temperatures to fall further than they otherwise might on calm, clear nights. 

That might be the case this weekend. 

The trigger for the upcoming chilly nights is a cold front due to come through tonight.  As we've kept saying, the most we can expect out of the front is some scattered sprinkles and patches of drizzle overnight and early Friday. 

Tomorrow itself will really feel like autumn has arrived. Highs will stay in the 60s as skies clear during the day.  A brisk north breeze will add to the autumnal feel of a classic crisp fall day. Saturday will be like that, too.

The problem is the nights. With the low humidity, temperatures will crash Friday night. A light breeze might keep temperatures pretty uniform, but those temperatures will be cold. Scattered frost is possible almost anywhere in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley, as it looks now. 

Even away from Lake Champlain, not everyone will see a frost. If you're in a place that gets frosts while other nearby places don't, you'll probably get a frost Saturday morning. And Sunday morning. If you usually don't get an autumn frost when everybody else does, chances are you'll be safe. 

The coldest hollows will see a hard freeze. Saranac Lake, New York is forecasting lows as chilly as 26 degrees.

Frost and freeze advisories haven't been issued yet. The National Weather Service will do that when we get closer to the event.  But get ready to protect your plants. 

After a crisp, beautiful cool, autumnal Saturday, we'll have a similar frost/freeze situation overnight Saturday and early Sunday. 

After that, it'll warm right back up again. Highs Sunday through maybe next Wednesday should get into the 70s again in many places. 

I'll have an update on this frost situation tomorrow morning. 

August Was World's Third Hottest, In Line With Most Months This Year

As it has for several years now, the August world
map of whether temperatures were above or below
the 20th century average shows almost
 exclusively on the warm side. 

The latest monthly report on the state of the global climate tells us August was the world's third hottest on record. 

That's the same as most recent months, as this year continues to trend just a tad cooler than the record global heat of 2023 and 2024. But other than those two years, August was easily warmer than any other in at least the past 150 years. 

The top ten warmest global Augusts have all occurred since 2015. 

El Nino, which tends to heat the world even above those caused by climate change, boosted temperatures in 2023 and 2024. 

 El Nino is not active, so it's mostly just climate change keeping temperatures above previous years.

Land areas had their fourth warmest August, and oceans had their third warmest August. Warmest areas included the Arctic, which had its second warmest August on record after 2023. Other particularly hot areas were most of the northern Pacific Ocean, far eastern Asia, western and northern Europe, northern Siberia, the Caribbean, eastern and northern South America, and adjacent South Atlantic Ocean waters. 

Unprecedented heat waves hit Spain, France, Japan, and sections of the Middle East. 

 Cooler than average temperatures, as usual, were hard to find in August. The only places that were a wee bit on the chilly side were parts of the southeast United States, eastern Europe, Far East Russia, a couple little sections of Africa, a perennial little cold spot in the North Atlantic south of Greenland and parts of Antarctica.

There was actually a small dot in the southern Pacific Ocean that had a record cold August, which is relative rarity in this age of climate change. 

The bottom line is that 2025 will offer a break of sorts from two consecutive record hot years the world had in 2023 and 2024.  The bad news is 2025 will certainly be in the top five list of warmest years. 

Meteorological summer, running from June 1 through August 31 was also the third warmest on record. 

The streak of warmest ever global temperatures from 2023 and 2024 extended into January, which was the hottest on record. Since then, each month this year was third hottest after the previous two years. Except for April and May, which were the second hottest on record for the world. 

I'm already guessing that 2026 also might not break the 2024 record for global heat. La Nina, the opposite weather pattern of the heat-adding El Nino is beginning to take over, according to latest NOAA forecasts.

At the moment, it doesn't look like it will be a particularly strong one, and it might not last very far into 2026.  But that could keep next year comparatively "cool."  Meaning there's a decent chance the world won't get as hot as 2024. 

However, there is no sign that climate change will ever go away. The world will keep getting hotter, and we will have another year - probably soon rather than later - that we'll have yet another record hot year. 

 

 

Vermont Drought: Effects Are Getting Widespread And Severe

The beach at Sandbar State Park in Milton, Vermont is
a LOT bigger than it used to be thanks to a near
record low Lake Champlain. The drought is 
depleting water statewide. 

As anybody can see by just looking around them, Vermont's punishing drought keeps taking a mounting, frustrating toll.  

It's now doing pretty much everything a drought can do. Dry wells, water shortages, fire danger, crop losses, shockingly low rivers and lakes. And there's no end in sight. 

We're witnessing another side of the disastrous extreme climate change is bringing to Vermont. Climate change is hitting everywhere, and we have seen our share of trouble here in the Green Mountain State. 

We had so many floods in recent years that these inundations felt like our "new normal." That turned out to be only part of the story.  Climate change is surely bringing more intense rains and floods. But it also  bringing worse droughts. 

We had a close miss in that regard last fall, when things started getting disconcertingly dry in Vermont. We were on the northern edge of a punishing drought that set forests ablaze from Pennsylvania and New Jersey to Massachusetts and Maine. 

We got lucky because rain and snow returned last winter and spring. We were temporarily rescued from some serious drought effects.

Now, we're not so fortunate.  The drought is consuming so much of our lives now.  Even if our wells are still running well, we look around at wilted plants, brown mountainsides and Vermont's once clear, rushing streams now turned into empty gravel pits. 

There's so many examples of what this drought is doing to us. I have some of the receipts: .

CROPS/LIVESTOCK

The drought is battering crops. It's peak apple season. What apples we have in Vermont are of good quality, but there's just not many of them.  It was super rainy during spring pollination season, so bees didn't have a chance to do their work then, because they don't do their work in stormy weather. 

Then the drought hit. You need lots of water to make big apples. So, they're small this year. Between the wet spring and the drought, some Vermont growers are saying they only have 50 percent of their expected apples. 

Dairy farmers are struggling with a lack of feed and water shortages. Some farmers are being forced to buy feed from elsewhere, which is very expensive.  Since profits - when they come - are extremely slim in dairy farming, this could become a serious crisis for some.  It could even shut down some of Vermont's already dwindling number of farms. 

FORESTS AND FIRES

Most Vermont brush and woodland fires come in the early spring shortly after the snow melts. There's dead vegetation and sunshine dries it out. Green leaves haven't appeared yet.

This spring in Vermont was wet, so we didn't get the usual number of fires. A few months ago, we thought we'd have an easy fire year. I guess we thought wrong.  

Through September 11, Vermont has seen 60 fires which have burned through 52.41 acres.  Expect this number to rise, possibly fairly quickly, until we get some decent, consistent rains. That's more than the total number of fires in some entire years, like 2017 and 2019.

Last year, Vermont had a busy time with fires, with 99 of them scorching a total of 180.6 acres. That was in large part due to a dry autumn which helped spark numerous fires. 

Autumn, 2024 could give us a hint of what we face in the coming month or two. The trouble would really begin in October as leaves fall from trees and dry out, and underbrush succumbs to the increasing chill of the season, turns brown and dies. That will provide more fuel for fires. It could make last autumn's blazes look like a campfire in comparison. 

Some or even many of those trees on thin, rocky soil you saw wilting and turning brown in August might never come back. The drought might well have killed them. We won't know for sure until spring when trees normally leaf out. 

The drought is leaving behind more dry wood to fuel forest fires.  The drought-killed trees, combined with the many more ash trees done in by the emerald ash borer, are combining to leave a lot of dead, dry wood around. 

Areas with a lot of dead trees would burn more easily, and burn hotter in this current drought.  The problem will also last for several years as the deceased trees will be there for years. They'll increase the fire risk during future droughts. 

Meanwhile, the forest fire danger today is high, as it's been for a week or more now. 

WATER SUPPLIES

 Many private wells have gone dry. The Vermont Agency of Natural Resources asks people with low or dry wells to report their issues and to visit its website to find a list of local water haulers and other drought resources. 

Vermont officials are trying to make sure they understand the extent of the problem. If your private well or spring is dry or low, the Department of Environmental Conservation is encouraging people to submit information to their Drought Reporter. 

 Some fire departments are trying to refill wells with their trucks, but not all can do that. Municipalities are running short of water, too, and have to supply the whole town. They can't use the limited amount of water left in reservoirs to refill private wells. 

A glimpse of the near future in Vermont might be comings from Moriah, New York. The town of 4,800 a little west of Port Henry has imposed an emergency water ban that prohibits all non-essential outdoor and indoor water use for at least six days. 

TOURISM

The drought is certainly affecting Vermont's famed foliage season. Despite warm weather, trees are turning color earlier than usual because trees are stressed by the dry weather. 

Worse, the color might well be dull. I've seen some hillsides turning a sad brown because green leaves are wilting for lack of water.  Other areas are mainly still green.  Droughts often dull the vibrancy of autumn foliage, and that might be the case this year.  We won't know for sure until fall foliage season reaches its peak.  

It'll still be pretty, but perhaps not as colorful as most years. We shall see.

I haven't heard much yet about how the drought might affect ski areas. They use a lot of water to make snow, and there's no longer much water available. Ski conditions might suffer, we shall see.

OUTLOOK

The weather forecast still has not changed much. Some clouds will cover the sky today, but will yield no rain. The humidity will stay low, too. Thursday will bring warm, dry weather. 

A cold front is still likely to come through Thursday night. A couple towns might get a sprinkle, that's it. 

Then, after a couple cool, dry days, it will turn warm and dry again. The next chance of rain still looks like it would come around September 25 and 26. 

However, some early indications are that next storm might slide by to our south, keeping the dry weather going. We don't know that for sure, so keep your fingers crossed!

Forecasts through September 30 keep us dry,  I don't see any big changes in this bad, dry weather pattern. 

The next weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report comes out tomorrow morning. It  hasn't rained in Vermont since September 7, so I'm sure the report will confirm things have gotten even worse.  

All Tornadoes All The Time, Another Twister Post, This Time, Drama From Japan

Some of the damage from this month's tornado in Japan,
the strongest on record, or at least since 1961

 Tornadoes keep hitting places that aren't in tornado alley. 

Earlier this week I talked about a swarm of tornadoes in North Dakota and an odd one in rural, semi-desert Utah. 

But the real tornado news was in Japan of all places. On Friday, they had their worst  tornado on record. 

The Japanese tornado packed winds of up to 168 mph, killing one person, injuring 89 people and damaging at least 1,200 structures, mostly in the communities to Makinohara and Yoshida. This is roughly 110 miles southwest of Tokyo. 

The tornado, and a likely separate one in another town spun off from Tropical Storm Peipah, which passed near Japan Friday. In fact there might have been multiple tornado touchdowns in the region. 

The tropical storm itself forced the evacuation of 600,000 or so people due to the threat of flooding and landslides. At least 24 people were injured by the tropical storm, separate from the tornadoes. One time received three inches of rain within an hour from the system.  

Tornadoes happen occasionally in Japan, but most tend to be pretty weak.  The nation has had about 1,600 tornadoes since 1961.  By comparison, the United States averages roughly 1,000 twisters per year. 

AUSTRALIA, TOO

A couple of tornado hit Australia during severe storms and flooding on September 10.  The first twister was reported in Caragabal, New South Wales with another one nearby shortly afterwards.

The tornadoes were part of an odd springtime storm system that dumped the heaviest September rains since at least 1879 in Sydney. (I said springtime, as it is springtime Down Under). 

The torrential rains brought some drought relief to inland areas, but left much of Sydney under water after nearly five inches of rain dumped onto the city with a population of 5.6 million. Other cities in the region received six inches. 

The Sydney metro area had twice as much rain in one day as they usually do during the entire month of September.

Videos

Video compilation of the tornado in Japan. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Farmer turns into a tornado chaser recently in Caragabal, Australia. To view, click on this link, or if you see the image below, click on that:

 Scenes in Sydney, Australia via a newscast shows the city swamped beneath five inches of rain in a short amount of time. Once again, click here to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Confirmed: NOAA Reports Vermont, Two Other States Had Driest August On Record

Charlotte Beach along Lake Champlain this past Sunday
showing remarkably low levels due to our ongoing drought.

Vermont was one of three states in a broad area of super dry summer weather than endured their driest August in at least 131 years. 

The news comes from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) which releases monthly reports on the previous month's United States climate data, and that of the whole world.

Kentucky and Ohio were the other two states besides Vermont that had their driest August. Ten other states A broad area stretching from Missouri to Maine had one of their top ten driest Augusts in those 131 years of record.

Vermont in August had on average 1.43 inches of rain in August.  The only other year that even comes close to the record dryness was 1957, with 1.56 inches. 

For comparison, the wettest August was 2011, with an average Vermont rainfall of 10.08 inches. That was the year Tropical Storm Irene hit the state, causing one of the worst floods in Vermont history.

As we well know, a flash drought developed in Vermont during August and has been intensifying this month.  A new weekly U.S. Drought Monitor due out Thursday morning will give us an idea of how much worse it has gotten in the past rainless week. 

It wasn't just us, of course. Which such a large area experiencing a dry August saw drought start, expand and intensify. Those areas include the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and of course much of the Northeast. 

August for the nation as a whole was on the dry side, coming in  at the 23rd driest out of the past 131 years. . The only notably wet state was Georgia, which had its tenth wettest August. 

The only other states that came in wetter than average were California, Nevada, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina and South Dakota.

The nation as a whole had its 27th warmest August out of the past 131 years. Six western states plus Florida had one of their top ten hottest Augusts on record. 

Both North and South Carolina had one of their top 10 coolest Augusts. A few counties in the Piedmont regions of those states had their coolest-ever August. In the age of climate change, it's become increasingly rare to see any region have a record cool month, but it still happens once in awhile. 

DROUGHT BRINGS ODD TEMPERATURES

Back here in the Northeast, including here in Vermont, droughts -  especially in the summer -  tend to bring above normal daytime temperatures and cooler nighttime lows. The air is dry, and the ground can't really add moisture to the atmosphere. 

So it becomes sort of desert-like. During the day, the sun doesn't use its energy on evaporation, because there's little to evaporate. So all that energy goes into boosting afternoon high temperatures. At night, moisture isn't around, so all the sun's heat radiates to space. 

Also, during droughts, there's no storms around to keep things cloudy. Cloudy skies would have brought cooler days and warmer nights. 

The lack of moisture and clouds in meant Vermont had its 20th warmest average daily high temperature and its 38th coolest overnight lows during August. This pattern was repeated throughout the Northeast and Ohio Valley. 

It's also continuing into September as the drought rolls on. Burlington has yet to see a daytime high under 70 degrees this month, which is odd for this late in the season. But most nights have cooled into the upper 40s and low 50s, and it's been even cooler than that away from Lake Champlain. 

VERMONT DROUGHT UPDATE

The situation obviously continues to worsen here in the Green Mountain State as we keep going day after day without rain. 

Some rivers, like the Otter Creek, are at record low levels. Parts of the Lamoille River near Jeffersonville, the East Branch of the Passumpsic at East Haven and the Clyde River at Newport are at their lowest levels on record for mid-September.

Virtually all other rivers and streams in Vermont are close to record lows.  I'll have more news on the drought's effects around here in a post coming soon. 

The weather forecast continues to be discouraging, with no change from the predictions I've been mentioning the past few days.

It was sunny, warm and dry Monday. It will be warm and dry today, tomorrow and Thursday. A decaying storm along the North Carolina/Virginia coastline might throw some clouds our way tomorrow, but, alas, no rain. 

The skies will clear out Thursday, and we'll have a brief excursion into summertime weather, with many of us reaching the low 80s.

You'd want sharp cold fronts this time of year to bring rain. We've got a pretty strong one coming Thursday night or very early Friday, but, again, it will have no rain with it this time, aside from a low risk of sprinkles in a couple spots. 

We'll have a brief cool down Friday and Saturday with highs only in the 60s. We'll have to be on the lookout for some areas of frost early Saturday morning. It will then turn warm again for a few days. 

Our next shot at rain still looks like it will come around September 25 or 26.  It's way too soon to know whether it will turn out to be any kind of real rain or another whiff with sprinkles or nothing. Some computer models give us some moderate rain, while others indicate practically nothing at all. 

We'll wait and see on that, Meanwhile, keep doing your rain dances. And do it with gusto.