Friday Morning Arctic Blast Update: UGH!

Since it's so bitterly cold out, I'll try to warm you up a little
with a photo of a beautiful warm, sunny Vermont summer
 day a couple years ago. 

 Well, it's here. The long awaited Arctic blast, polar vortex, whatever you want to call it. 

Temperatures were crashing early this morning as expected. For instance, Burlington dropped from 24 degrees at midnight to 2 above by 6 a.m. 

Temperatures will continue down and reach below zero soon, if they haven't already, and will stay below zero all day. Wind chills are ramping up, and the expected 30 to 45 below wind chill values will hit as the day wears on. 

MORNING DRIVE TIME

There's some slick areas on the roads this morning from those brief but heavy snow squalls overnight. Some of the squalls were intense enough to create some thundersnow up in Orleans County. 

 Road salt doesn't work great in low temperatures, so any ice lingering on the roads won't easily go anywhere.  Bridges and overpasses, especially over rivers will be especially dangerous. Steam rising from the water often forms black ice on the bridge.

That's one the reasons we see so many winter crashes on the Interstate 89 bridges over the Winooski River between Winooski and Burlington.

From about Burlington south into Addison County, the frigid winds blowing across the mostly unfrozen Lake Champlain  today will create light lake effect snow.  

Areas exposed to those strong northwest winds will also suffer from blowing snow that can briefly reduce visibility and leave an area of snow on the roads. You're driving along and the roads seem OK, then you hit that snow in skid out. 

Further north, this problem is even worse. There's a blizzard warning up for far northern Maine today. There won't be much new snow up there, either, but strong winds and low temperatures will create a ground blizzard.

A ground blizzard, common in the northern Plains but less so here, is when there's little or no snow falling out of the sky, but blowing snow is so thick that visibility is reduced on the roads to near zero.

TOO COLD TO DO ANYTHING

Otherwise, the bitter cold air is dry, so most places won't see any additional snow. 

If you had big plans today or tomorrow, check to see if they're still on.  They probably aren'.t Besides, today and tonight especially will be a perfect time to stay indoors, eating stew and binge watching Netflix or Hulu or something. 

Another photo attempt to warm you up today. Photo is
at the Burlington, Vermont waterfront during a July, 
2018 heat wave. I remember it was 91 degrees 
when I snapped this photo. I sincerely doubt it's
this nice along the Burlington lake front today.

Many schools in Vermont are closed today. I know, I know. I went to school, too, in weather this bad when I was a kid. But the fact that we've had such warm winters is a bit of a shock. People aren't use to this.

Jay Peak announced Friday that it would shut down its ski lifts today and probably run them on a limited basis on Saturday. "While this may sadden the hardest of our corps, it's in the interest of both our team and guests that we do so," the resort said in a statement issued Thursday.

I'm sure other ski resorts are closing or limiting lifts today, too. 

That gets me to something I brought up before that needs to be repeated: Will you hard core adventurers just STOP.  Don't climb Mount Washington, just for this one 48 hour period.  Don't go for a jog in just shorts and a t-shirt. You know who you are. I've seen you. 

You're not impressing anyone, and if your hiking and skiing the back woods in this ridiculousness, you put rescuers in danger, too. Not just yourself. Or do you care?

Phew! I really had to get that out of my system. 

The annual Penguin Plunge into Lake Champlain in Burlington to benefit Special Olympics is also canceled, and somehow turned into a remote event. The real deal had been scheduled for Saturday, but meteorologists, the City of Burlington and organizers deemed the event too dangerous give the expected wind chill.  

Organizers are telling would-be plungers to instead, after the cold eases, to make snow angels in bathing suits, or have snowball fights in shorts and t-shirts, or anything like that between now and February 20.  

TONIGHT

Snuggle in for a frigid night. The forecast hasn't really changed in days as to how cold it will get overnight and early Saturday morning.

The banana belt towns near Lake Champlain should bottom out in the mid to upper teens below zero, with continued wind chills in the 35 to 45 below range. Most other places in northern and central Vermont should get into the low to mid 20s below zero with wind chills in the 40s below. The coldest hollows should flirt with 30 below - actual temperature.

This terrible weather is still looking like an incredibly quick hitter. Saturday will still be frigid, but not as cold or windy as today.  Most places should actually get to a few degrees above zero by mid to late afternoon.

Overnight Saturday, it will actually warm up, and be pretty decent by Sunday morning, with temperatures at dawn probably in the teens for most of us.  Those readings will go into the upper 20s to mid 30s by late afternoon Sunday. That's actually a wee bit warmer than average. 

And, every day during the upcoming week will be warmer than average for this time of year. 5 

Quick Vermont Thursday Evening Arctic Blast Update

The latest wind chill forecast, issued Thursday afternoon
from the National Weather Service office in South 
Burlington still indicates 40s below wind chills coming up

 Not much change had come through for our brief but intense Arctic blast, scheduled from later tonight through Saturday. 

First of all, today wasn't all that nice to begin with, at least in the Champlain Valley. Sure, it was seasonably warm, near 30 degrees. 

But with winds gusting to around 35 mph, wind chills were in the teens at best, and that cold snow blowing off roofs and slamming into my face as I walked around St. Albans, Vermont today wasn't fun.

But the joy gets more intense tonight, as advertised. The Arctic cold front, with its really heavy but brief snow squalls, should enter northwestern Vermont by around 10 p.m. tonight, reach roughly a Middlebury to Newport line by around 11 p.m., and pass by Rutland and St. Johnsbury by midnight.

It looked like on radar that some preliminary lighter snow showers were already crossing the International border into Vermont as of 5:15 p.m. today. That might develop a few little slick spots on northern Vermont roads before the main show arrives later.

Temperatures are still expected to crash fast behind that cold front.  An example is a forecast I saw for Burlington, which has the temperature at 19 above at midnight and 6 below by 9 a.m. Temperatures would then stay around 6 below all day before crashing in the evening to lows Friday night in the mid to upper teens below zero.

The worst wind chills are forecast to come between about 3 p.m. Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday. In the mountains, the expected wind chill would be as low as 84 below atop Mount Marcy, New York and 73 below atop Mount Mansfield.

In lower elevations, expected wind chills would range from about 39 below in Springfield to minus 50 in Newport. Stay indoors, kiddies! 

If you hate the cold, forecasts are still solidly calling for a big warmup beginning Sunday. Several days next week will get above freezing.  

More details coming tomorrow morning, once we're into the heart of the cold. It will be interesting to see whether this cold wave is more intense, or less intense than forecast. 

Quebec Groundhog Found Dead. What Does THAT Mean For The Rest Of Winter?

Fred la marmotte, seen here in 2018 was Quebec's 
answer to the groundhog Punxsutawney Phil. Fred
was found dead Thursday morning before he could
make his prediction, so what does that mean?

 Yes, yes, I know, the silly traditional Groundhog Day we had today is not scientific.

Supposedly, if the groundhog sees his shadow, we'll need to endure six more weeks of winter. The most famous one, Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania, saw his shadow on Thursday, supposedly meaning spring is a far away dream. 

Never mind the output from meteorologists lately that suggest a possible early end to winter. I see NOAA's latest 8 to 14 day forecast, for what it's worth, predicts warmer than normal weather through mid-February.

Longer range forecasts also call for a warm February overall. NOAA also slightly favors a warmer than normal spring in the Northeast, too.

I don't entire trust these long range forecasts. A lot can go wrong. However, I'm quite sure the scientists at NOAA are much better at weather forecasting than some random rodent. Sorry Phil!

Which leads me to some tragic news from Quebec.  

The Canadian province's answer to Punxsutawney Phil, named Fred la marmotte, in Val-d'Espoir, Quebec, was found dead just before he was scheduled to come out of his burrow to predict how late winter would go. 

Perhaps Fred had heard that the Polar Vortex was about to settle into Quebec,  leading to an intense, but brief Arctic cold snap. 

But Yikes! What kind of prediction to you get when a groundhog is found dead? Sounds like the apocalypse. 

Death seems drastic, after all. Will the next six weeks be worse than just cold, or hazy, hot and humid, like summer?  Does this mean unprecedented storms?  Thirty feet of snow in a week? Something like the Great Quebec ice storm of 1998? Locusts? Noah's flood?

We don't know the cause of Fred's death, but it appears to be from natural causes. Maybe Fred was just depressed because his meteorological knowledge was not as great as, you know, real meteorologists.

Event organizers in Quebec figured Fred would have wanted a child to take his place if he had died  So a child was selected from the crowd on Thursday. For the record, that child, wearing a groundhog hat, predicted six more weeks of winter.

The kid was probably just hoping for more snow days that would close schools. So he could go to the sledding hill behind the school instead of hitting the books. 

For next year, we're told that Fred's son will take over the Groundhog Day leading role. It's a family business. Fred took over for his father several years ago when his dad died. 

Two Videos Show Vermont's Belated, Hesitant Shift To Winter

After a wet snowfall. Intervale, Burlington, Vermont 1/1/23,.

As almost everybody knows, I love watching all the subtle seasonal shifts that we experience here in Vermont as the calendar turns during the year. 

This year, winter arrived belatedly, but I was a keen observer of all this anyway. 

 I like to put these down on video, which you can enjoy them here. There's two videos, I'll describe the first one, show it then please scroll down for the second one 

They both show that even a lame winter in Vermont is still beautiful. 

The first video shows a gradual change from a paltry snow cover to an actual fairly decent, almost normal snow cover. It took a few mid-sized snowfalls to do it, but we accomplished it.  Click on this link to view if you doh't see the image of the video, or click on the image to view if you see it. 

The snow did come, but the weather stayed warm.  The snow was resilient, but thaws did want to eat away at it. A final thaw before winter really set in came on January 29. But in far northern Vermont, at least, the forces of snow won out.

The wet snow struggled to accumulate at first, but as temperatures dropped a little and the snow intensified, we added to the snow cover on the ground. At least a little. It was all pretty, even if motorists on the road in front of my house and my Jackson the Weather Dog weren't super enthusiastic. 

Again, click on this link to view or click on image below:

Thursday Morning Update: Arctic Blast Will Be Even Quicker In, Quicker Out

Snow slid halfway off my roof, and then froze like this.
Looks like this sculpture will stay put until renewed
thawing sets in next week, after our Arctic blast.

Hope you're ready to hibernate for just a couple days. 

That highly advertised Arctic blast, or visit from the Polar Vortex is on our doorstep, ready to swoop in tonight in dramatic fashion. 

The Arctic cold front will blast through Vermont in the first half of tonight, accompanied by brief, but blinding snow squalls, especially in northern parts of the state.

The cold front will come through the Champlain Valley roughly around 9 p.m., give or take. It should exit the southeastern corner of the state around midnight. 

If you're out later tonight, be careful. Some of these snow squalls will mean business with strong winds and low visibility. They'll only last 15 minutes or so in any given location, but they're not to be messes with on the roads.

From there, temperatures will plunge. The frigid air is coming in a little faster than first forecast, so most of us should be well below zero by dawn.  Do note the wind chill warning starts at 1 a.m. Friday and goes to 1 p.m. Saturday. Those wind chills are still expected to be in the 30 to 45 below range. 

The roads tomorrow morning won't be great, either. Those snow squalls will only leave an inch or so of new snow, but it will get so cold so fast that I doubt road salt will work effectively.

Friday, as I noted yesterday, will be miserable. All but the low elevations of southern Vermont will stay below zero all day. North winds will gust to 30 mph. It won't be the day to spend any time outdoors. I'd cancel the ski trip, the hike, or even a run of a few blocks. It won't be worth it. 

Some forecasters have backed off a tiny bit on expected low temperatures Friday night and early Saturday morning. But it will still be among the coldest, or the coldest night in a few years. For now, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington is going with mid-teens below zero in the Champlain Valley to mid 20s below in the Northeast Kingdom.

Saturday will be bright but still bitterly cold. However, the tide will be starting to turn against the chill during the day as the core of the coldest air rapidly gets out of here. Winds will diminish, and most of us will get into the single digits above zero,

I still think temperatures will briefly crash just after sunset Saturday, especially east of the Green Mountains. But by then, south winds will already be starting to stir in the Champlain Valley. Most of us will stay  in the single digits below zero, at least for the first part of Saturday night. 

As the south winds increase, temperatures will actually go up overnight, especially in the Champlain Valley. By Sunday afternoon, the cold snap will be over. Everybody will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s for highs. 

The Arctic blast will be just 48 to 60 hours of misery in what appears to be shaping up to be a warm winter. Temperatures are forecast to be generally above normal into mid-February from Sunday afternoon onward. 

No Surprise, Vermont January, 2023 Was Among Hottest On Record

Early in the month, it was so warm in St. Albans, Vermont
that daffodil shoots were coming up. Photo taken on Jan. 5

 The numbers are in for the weather in January, 2023 are in and it was, indeed the hottest first month of the year in parts of Vermont. 

In the rest of the state, it was close to the warmest.  

Montpelier had its hottest January on record, with a mean temperature of 29.1 degrees. 

That shattered the old record of 27.3 degrees in 1990. Usually, in the rare instances when a weather station breaks a record for warmest month, it's by no more than a few tenths of a degree. That Montpelier broke the record by 1.8 degrees is really impressive.

It looks like St. Johnsbury also broke its record for warmest January. The mean temperature for 2023 came in at 28.8 degrees, higher than any other year in January. 

Montpelier and St. Johnsbury were among numerous cities in the Northeast, including Portland, Maine and New York City, that had their warmest Januaries on record. 

Burlington only came in at fourth in the list of warmest January, with an average temperature of 29.2 degrees. That's two degrees shy of the all time warmest January of 1906. 

I'm not sure on this, but I think several areas of Vermont had their highest minimum temperature on record for January. The coldest night in Burlington was 7 degrees. Montpelier's lowest reading was 8 degrees. Rutland's lowest temperature was 9 above.

January, 2023 was an especially gloomy month in Vermont,
with frequent bouts of low clouds, fog, drizzle and 
light, wet snow. Photo taken in St. Albans, Jan. 6.

Nights were especially warm in Burlington and elsewhere during January. The average low temperature was 23.6, which is the second highest mean temperature for low minimums. 

There was not much of a range in temperature between low and high temperatures most days. 

The difference between the high and low averages was 11.2 degrees. Usually this time of year that range between daily highs and lows is about 16 or 17 degrees.  

That lack of range between low and high temperatures reflects something you surely noticed.

It was incredibly cloudy in January. I would rate 26 days in Burlington and vicinity during January as overcast, or overcast with a very limited number of breaks. 

When it's cloudy, high temperatures are usually a little lower than you'd expect and low temperatures are a little warmer than they would be if was clear. 

All those clouds provided plenty of precipitation. Rain and melted snow amounted to 3.40 inches in Burlington. This fell just outside the top 10 list of wettest Januaries in Burlington. Number 10 on the list had 3.46 inches. 

By the end of the January, it was at least looking a lot
more wintry.  True winter weather didn't really hit, though,
until January 30, too late to prevent January, 2023
from becoming one of the warmest on record in Vermont.

Other areas of Vermont were pretty wet, too. St. Johnsbury had 4.07 inches of precipitation, against a normal of 2.68 inches for the month.

 Rutland, with 3.63 inches of precipitation, about an inch above normal. Montpelier was closer to normal with 2.49 inches, less than a quarter inch above normal.

After a nearly snow-free beginning, snowfall picked up, and most places ended up within the range of normal snowfall for the year. St. Johnsbury ended up with 20 inches of snow, which was actually 0.1 inches above normal.

Looking out to February, we know we're starting the month with intense Arctic cold, at least on Friday and Saturday. 

But overall, the outlook for the month is for above normal temperatures again. Do note that long range forecasts are iffy. So take the forecast for the entire month with a bit of a grain of salt. 

The Arctic Cold Gathers, Then Weather Whiplash In Vermont

Latest wind chill forecast map from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington, valid 7 a.m. Saturday.
Most of us are in the upper 30s to mid 40s below
on the wind chill scale. 

We got our first taste of true winter cold this morning, with much of Vermont going below zero.

Burlington got to minus 2.  This was the fourth latest first zero of any winter I'm aware of.  Meanwhile, Island Pond, Vermont and Saranac Lake, New York dipped to 20 below. Lake Eden, Vermont was close behind at 18 below.  

We'll see a warmup of sorts today and tomorrow ahead of the long-anticipated Arctic blast, but it won't be all that balmy. Today will get into the low to mid 20s.

Thursday could hit the low 30s in warmer valleys. But gusty south winds will make it feel colder. Then we get into the nastiness: 

Thursday Night: During the first half of the night, the cold front arrives, probably accompanied by a band of snow squalls. Those will create quick drops in visibility and danger on the roads amid brief heavy snow and blowing snow. 

Overall accumulations won't amount to much, perhaps an inch or two, but that's not the real story, of course Temperatures will rapidly crash, and probably be below zero by dawn across much of Vermont, central and north. 

Wind chills will have drop into the 30s below overnight and before dawn. We do have that wind chill watch for all of Vermont and surrounding areas from late night Thursday through Saturday. 

Friday: A real ugly day for sure. If you greet the dawn Friday at below zero, there's a good chance actual temperatures won't get above zero all day.  The warmest anyone in Vermont will get will be close to 10 in the "warmest" southern Vermont valleys.

North winds will continue blasting all day at around 20 mph with higher gusts. Wind chills will be in the upper 30s and 40s below all day. This is truly dangerous weather, especially since we're not accustomed to it. 

If you must go out, be sure to keep skin covered. Make sure your car is ready with a good battery and a full tank of gas. And keep some extra blankets and other warm clothes in the car in case you get stuck out there. Also, how's the fuel tank in your house? Full enough? Check it now. 

Lake Champlain will look interesting amid the frigid temperatures and strong winds. It's still largely ice-free, thanks to the warm winter we've had until now. You'll see lots of wind blown steam, and perhaps some whirls or funnel clouds out there.  Lake effect snow will probably fall southeast of the lake, but accumulations will be light. 

Friday night: That, of course, is when we bottom out as Arctic high pressure noses, aided by the Polar Vortex, which by then will have swooped into eastern Quebec and touching the northern tip of Maine. 

Although winds will diminish, they won't entirely die out, which means two things. On the bad side, wind chills will still be in the basement, staying in the 30s and 40s below. On the good side, the winds will keep the air mixed in some locations, so the actual temperature won't go as low as it could if everyone had calm winds. 

That's not saying much. Temperatures through most of Vermont will pretty uniformly be within a few degrees of 20 below.  Probably mid and upper teens below in the Champlain Valley and warmer valleys of southern Vermont, and mid 20s below in the colder spots. Deeper northern valleys could be protected from the wind. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find some 30s below actual temperatures in Vermont by Saturday morning. 

Climatology Comparison:  It certainly is possible for even Burlington reach 20 below. If it does, it will be the first time it's gotten that cold since January 7, 2018

This will also probably be the coldest February temperature since February 24, 2015, when it was 19 below in Burlington. In the off chance it gets to 20 below in Burlington, it will be the first time it's gotten that cold in February since an especially intense cold wave on February 7, 1993 brought Burlington down to 27 below.

As intense as this Arctic blast is, it certainly won't be the coldest February readings on record. In Burlington, that honor goes to a 30 below temperature on February 12, 1979.  Statewide, the coldest on record in February is 46 below in East Barnet in 1943

Saturday: After that horrifically cold start, temperatures will only slowly warm under a fair amount of sunshine. North winds will continue to make for a terrible wind chill. Most places in northern Vermont won't even get above zero. But at least winds will temporarily diminish in the afternoon. 

Saturday night: Here's where weather whiplash starts to get us. I told you this would be a brief Arctic smash. Temperatures wills start to crash at and just after sunset, especially east of the Green Mountains. But before they get too cold, they'll level off as the core of the cold air zips off to the northeast. Plus, south winds will start to blow. 

Here's something to warm your heart. After our Arctic
blast Friday and Saturday, long range forecasts call
for warmer than normal weather in the eastern U.S.,
including in Vermont, next week. 

Temperatures will bottom out during the first half of the night in the teens below zero in much of eastern Vermont and single digits below west.

Temperatures in many places, especially the Champlain Valley, will rise overnight and during the wee hours of the morning. It'll actually get pretty windy in the Champlain Valley overnight, so blowing snow will become a problem. 

Sunday: Weather whiplash continues. We're dealing with a strong warm front and a strong cold front. Neither will have much moisture with them. .But what they lack in moisture they'll make up for with winds. 

The Champlain Valley will "warm up cold" as I like to say. Temperatures will rocket upward, but the stiff winds will make it feel colder. Pretty much everyone in Vermont will see some pretty good south breezes. By late afternoon expect highs to actually be at or a wee bit above normal.  That means highs in the 27 to 35 degree range. 

Sunday night: The one trouble with the approaching cold front will be the risk of more snow squalls Sunday evening, so we'll have to keep an eye on that. The "cold" air coming in behind the cold front won't be cold at all, so we should expect a normal winter on Monday. Highs in the 20s to near 30.

Beyond that, it could be 40 degrees by Tuesday.