Monday Snow Falling Far North And West; Most Of Vermont In A Cold Shivery Rain

 The fairly weak but soggy storm system sliding by to our south is giving us a very miserable Monday morning as expected.  

Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic cam shows
snow falling along Route 114 in Canaan, which is at
the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Snow is widespread
in southern Quebec this morning but so far
it's been almost all rain in Vermont, as expected.

Most of us in Vermont were near 40 degrees as of 8 a.m. and a steady rain was falling. For those of you looking for snow, so far it's been just north of the Canadian border, and in northwestern New York, 

As of 8 a.m., it was snowing in Montreal, Quebec City, Ottawa and Massena, New York.  The storm flung a bit of slightly warmer air aloft over most of Vermont and New Hampshire, so it's been almost all rain so far. 

You can tell that "warmer" air is lurking above by mountain reports. It was only 25 degrees atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire, but they were getting freezing rain, not snow. 

As the storm moves east, some of the colder air aloft on its northwestern flank might manage to bleed south some. That means the northern Green Mountains and perhaps even lower elevations in the north, including maybe the Champlain Valley could see some snowflakes before the precipitation tapers off by early afternoon.

I did notice a Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic camera this morning along Route 114 in Canaan, Vermont shows snowfall with a slushy coating on the road. Canaan is in the extreme Northeast Kingdom, right where Vermont, New Hampshire and Quebec meet. 

The rain has pushed October to become the seventh wettest in Burlington as of 8 a.m. today. If the city gets just 0.13 inches more, it will be third wettest. It will also be among the top ten warmest Octobers.

FREEZE, FINALLY

If for some reason you haven't brought in plants from outdoors you want to save, now's the time. The weather pattern has changed. I'm impressed by the huge area of freeze warnings the nation is under right now.

We brought our hibiscus indoors a couple weeks ago.
The warmer indoor air encouraged an explosion of
blooms, but some yellow leaves, as we get every
autumn as it doesn't like being indoors as much.
If you still have any sensitive plants outdoors, go
out in the rain and get 'em in now. Freeze tonight.

The freeze warnings extend from Arizona to Pennsylvania and southern Wisconsin to northern Mississippi. 

We won't be under a freeze warning here in Vermont, because the growing season is normally thought to be long past.  

But we are going to see our first, very belated freeze of the season tonight. Some parts of Vermont will have their latest first autumn freeze on record tonight.

Even in the Champlain Valley.  So empty those hoses if you still have them outdoors and bring them in.  

We brought our hibiscus, orange tree and geraniums in about a week and a half ago, figuring we'd have to do it sometime. But if you have stuff like that on your deck. rush 'em into the house. 

We finally have to button up for winter.  Not that hard core winter is going to hit quite yet.

COOL, BUT BENIGN

At least for now, we get a reprieve from the forces of winter. This week will be on the cool side, but trending milder to become close to normal by the end of the week and the weekend. There will be no big storms.  It'll often be cloudy, and we have the risk of a sprinkle or flurry here or there, but nothing major he season 

A Damp, Flaky Vermont Forecast; Incredibly Raw Start To Week

An interlude of sunshine Saturday lit up these lingering
golden leaves in St. Albans, Vermont, but the gloom is
back and so is the chill. 

 The cold front that ended our long of warm autumn weather came through as scheduled Saturday.

It gave us a brief window in which the persistent clouds over the past two or three weeks gave way to bright blue skies during the afternoon.  

Now, this Sunday morning, we're back to the gloom we've been under, and it's a lot cooler out there. 

The cold front temporarily stalled to our south, just as expected. A couple little storms are rippling along the front, or are about to. 

Last gasps of warm air are trying to ride up and over the front and the cold air behind it, created another round of dull overcast that will last through Monday.

To add to the chilly misery, occasional rain will be the rule today through most of Monday. Some of the rain will be white - as in snow. 

The first wave of precipitation was trying to move in by 8 or 9 a.m. this Sunday morning, but dry air near the surface was drying up the rain as it fell, so it was initially not making it to the ground. The rain will be spotty north, and some places have a shot of staying generally dry, if dark and gloomy. 

Actually, the rain is probably in the form of snow way up high, near summit levels around here. It's changing to rain on the way down. But that evaporation is cooling the air further, so when the a little rain finally does make it to the ground, some people might find a few wet snowflakes mixing in. 

It would just be a few snowflakes, and mostly confined to north-central Vermont away from Lake Champlain and the Northeast Kingdom.

This one isn't much, but this is the first of I'm sure many
National Weather Service/South Burlington snow
forecast maps you'll see this winter. As you can see
higher elevations, at least are in for a little snow
now through late night Monday. 

The precipitation might wane a bit this afternoon, but really pick up and become steady overnight. 

Rain and snow will never come down particularly heavy overnight and Monday, but it will make things sopping wet again. 

Rain or melted snow will probably amount to too much - about a half inch north to a little under an inch far south in Vermont. 

 This will vault Burlington into the top ten list of wettest Octobers. We've already established it will among the top ten warmest, so yeah, this month has indeed been weird, in case you haven't noticed. 

You also see I'm mentioning snow in this outlook.   Higher and even some mid elevations, mainly above 2,000 feet or so, might expect a slushy coating to an inch of snow from this late tonight and Monday morning. Some more wet flakes might  make it to valley floors. 

There's always a chance this could over-perform, too. The National Weather Service in South Burlington has a nifty winter weather page that, among many other things, gives percent chances of different snow totals. For instance, Island Pond has a 59 percent chance of seeing 0.1 inches of snow.

There's a low chance, it things turn out right, that even the Champlain Valley gets involved. St. Albans has a 22 percent chance of at least 0.1 inches of snow, and Burlington has an 18 percent chance. Bad odds if you're a gambler, but still, interesting. 

This snow isn't weird for the very end of October, but it's a reality check for those of us who were lulled into the never ending summer the past couple of months. 

I don't see any signs of a big warmup anytime soon. There might even be some snow showers around Wednesday. We're lucky that a nor'easter that could have brought accumulating snow to us midweek is going way too far out to sea to bother us. 

It might get vaguely warmer toward the weekend, but not nearly enough to throw open the windows again. 

This type of weather pattern - very typical of November, really - tends to keep the clouds locked into place. Yeah, you'll see glimpses of sun, and maybe even some bonafide partly sunny skies at times toward Thursday and Friday.  

But for those of you with solar patterns, you still won't be making tons of electricity for yourselves anytime soon. But that's typical for this time of year. 

Sharp Flip To Colder Vermont, And The Chill Will Have Staying Power

Harvesting beans just a week ago in 
my St. Albans, Vermont garden. Until
now, such a late harvest for beans
was unheard of in the Green Mountain State

Temperatures at dawn in the Champlain Valley this morning were in the mid-60s, which is actually warmer than normal for a July dawn, never mind the end of October. 

Enjoy it, because as of this writing at 8 a.m. Saturday, we have only a few more hours of it. Spoiler: We have a week of November like weather coming, and for some of us, there's snow in the forecast. 

The warmth this week has been impressive, though not as big-time as the beginning of the month, when we set all time record highs for the month. 

Still, Montpelier managed a record high of 71 degrees Friday, though records only go back to 1949. So it could have been warmer before that. There's evidence for that. Burlington fell short by one degree of tying a record  high of 74, set in 1947.

Across the pond, Plattsburgh had a record high for the date of 74, besting the old record of 72.

Rain showers were gathering in New York State and heading toward Vermont at dawn today. They won't amount to much, except they're part of that strong cold front heading our way. 

I wouldn't wear shorts and t-shirts out like I comfortably did yesterday. It was still summer wear weather  early this morning, but temperatures will fall this afternoon, especially the further northwest you go.

For instance, Burlington's forecast has an expectation of around 67 degrees at noon, but down to the mid-50s by dusk and mid-40s before midnight. 

And this the cold (but not at all abnormal!) weather begins. 

SUNDAY

Latest forecasts are holding off on the light rain for northern Vermont. But it still looks another rainy and dreary Sunday afternoon the further south you go. Rain won't be heavy, but with damp conditions and overcast everywhere, it won't be a nice day.

Summits will start to see snow Sunday afternoon or evening and snow levels will fall somewhat overnight, leading to a potentially interesting Monday for some of us

MONDAY

Although precipitation will not be heavy, it will be noticeable, especially as many of us see snow Monday morning.  This will be the first time this season some of us will have to drive in it. 

The snow, and the risk of slick roads, should be mostly at elevations of near 1,500  to 2,000 feet and above. That means most of us will be fine, though a few wet snow flakes could mix in all the way down to valley floors. 

Last leaves of autumn cling to trees near the 
Winooski River in Burlington Friday. 

Since none of us are used to driving in snow and some people don't have winter tires yet, there could be some spin outs on higher elevation roads and highways Monday morning. 

Think Route 4 at Mendon Mountain, Route 9 east of Bennington, possibly the high terrain along Interstate 89 near Brookfield, Route 17 over Buels Gore, places like that. 

Watch this one, though. I've seen surprises this time of year in which snow levels go lower than forecast. You never know. 

The rain and snow will taper off some in the afternoon, but it will remain cold

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

Most of Vermont has extremely oddly not had a freeze yet. That will change in the upcoming week.  Even the Banana Belt Champlain Valley should get below freezing on at least some mornings between Tuesday and Friday. 

That is extraordinarily late.  I found myself shockingly harvesting green beans last week, and I'm still getting healthy lettuce that was never protected from frost. 

Daytime highs should be in the 40s each day. 

This seems cold after our weirdly warm autumn so far. But the expected temperatures are only slightly cooler than normal, and it's been much colder than this in the past in late October. 

Record lows in the Champlain Valley are running in the 15 to 20 degree range, and record cold highs are in the low 30s.  We won't come remotely close to that. 

Despite the chillier weather to close October, it will still be among the top ten warmest Octobers on record, at least in Burlington. 

Odd Lenticular Clouds Gave Vermont Skies A Unique Appearance, Followed By Other Rare Clouds Days Later

Lenticular clouds over South Burlington,
 Vermont last Thursday.

 During last week's relatively warm weather, the sky over northwest Vermont began to look a little like some odd fuzzy spaceships were overhead.  

These were lenticular clouds. They happen from time to time mostly over mountainous areas. They're some of the weirdest and most picturesque clouds you can get. 

To understand how these clouds form, think about a fast flowing river. You'll often see the water flow up and over a submerged rock, then there are waves downstream that sort of echo the wave that was over the rock. 

That's what's going on in the atmosphere. Air is flowing up and over a mountain, then you get those waves downstream. Those lenticular clouds you're seeing are the peak of the waves. When air rises to form the peak of the wave, moisture condenses and forms those smooth, rounded clouds. 

This, by the way, is a demonstration why meteorologists are basically physicists specializing in fluid dynamics. The air flows like a fluid, and acts that way. Meteorologists need to understand how these processes work to help that forecast the weather. 

Last Thursday, when these lenticular clouds appeared, winds from the southwest were flowing over the Adirondacks, and the subsequent waves appeared overhead in northwestern Vermont. 

Another view of lenticular clouds over South Burlington,
 Vermont last Thursday.

This made for a very pretty, unique sky, but these lenticular clouds weren't as spectacular as sometimes seen near larger mountains. 

Places like the fairly isolated volcanic peaks in the Cascades of Washington State produce some really wild lenticular clouds. Those can be multi-layered, almost resembling giant wedding cakes from outer space.  

In these areas, like the Cascades, people have actually called the authors because the lenticular clouds really do look like spaceships. People who didn't know any better have thought that's what they really were.  

Lenticular clouds certainly don't happen every day here in Vermont. So it is a treat when we do get them. So I certainly enjoyed last Thursday afternoon's skies. 

Video: Views of the lenticular clouds over northwestern Vermont on October 19. Click on this link to view the video, or, if you see the image below, click on that:

ASPERITAS SIGHTING

A few days later, this past Tuesday, we were treated to another fairly rare cloud called asperitas. It's an overcast with weird wave and sort of swirl patterns associated with it. 

Scientists aren't exactly 100 percent sure how they form. They're often near convective thunderstorms, but sometimes form in much calmer conditions.  The ones we had overhead in Vermont Tuesday came with no major weather.  There were sprinkles around, but certainly no heavy showers or storms. 

Asperitas clouds form over Georgia, Vermont Tuesday. 

The weather that we had Tuesday consisted of warm, moist air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico interacting with weak disturbances in the atmosphere. This has led to those small batches of light showers that have been coming through for the past few days. 

These clouds actually need a stable layer in the atmosphere where the air doesn't mix much. Small disturbances, like pebbles thrown into a pond, can jostle the air enough to create these clouds. 

Although asperitas is often associated with inclement weather, rain for some reason does not fall from these clouds, despite their unstable appearance. These clouds often look ominous, but no need to hide in the basement if you seem them. They don't harm anything. 

The asperitas clouds I saw Tuesday were not nearly as dramatic as they can get.  Sometimes, like some spotted over northern New Hampshire in April, can be incredibly wild. 

Acapulco Apocalypse: Surprise Category 5 Hurricane Otis Devastates Resort

Extreme destruction in Acapulco from surprise
Category 5 Hurricane Otis. Photo via X
by @mendezraq

 Residents and tourists in Acapulco, Mexico went to bed Tuesday night expecting a strong tropical storm or at worst a minimal Category 1 hurricane. 

By morning, everyone assumed, the city would face scattered tree damage, a few power outages, maybe a couple flooded streets, and trashed awnings and such. 

Instead, Tropical Storm Otis in a flash strengthened to a category 5 monster, with top winds at landfall in Acapulco with winds at around 165 mph. 

This is a worst case scenario for a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest possible.  It strengthened rapidly, giving no time for residents to prepare. 

Worse, it caught seasoned forecasters by surprise.  Nobody anticipated it would be nearly this bad. And this is the first known case of a Category 5 hurricane directly striking a city with a population of more than 1 million. 

"'It's one thing to have a Category 5 hurricane make landfall somewhere when you're expecting it or expecting a strong hurricane, but to have it happen when  you're not expecting anything to happen is truly a nightmare,' said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, according to the Associated Press.

 The blow was so sudden and so extreme that 24 hours later, we still don't know the extent of damage or the death toll.  Most people just can't get into Acapulco for a look-see or get out yet. 

But social media images and news coming out of Acapulco are grim. 

Many tourists said they feared for their lives as the intense winds dismantled their hotels. 

As the Associated Press describes:

"Jacob Sauczuk was staying with a group of friends at a beachfront hotel when Otis hit. 'We laid down on the floor and some between beds,' Sauczuk said. 'We prayed a lot.'

One of his friends showed reporters photos of the windowless, shattered rooms in the hotel. It looked as if someone had put clothes, beds and furniture in a blender, leaving a shredded mess. He complained that his group was given no warning, no were offered safer shelter by the  hotel."

Probably because the hotel, like everyone else, was caught by utter surprise by this thing.  

We know that there's widespread looting, and many people are trapped amid the chaos. Video emerging from the area show high rise buildings shredded, as if in the midst of a major war. 

This was a colossal miss by hurricane forecasters. As the Washington Post reports:

"On X, formerly Twitter, meteorologists described the forecast as 'an almost incomprehensible miss,' 'a fail of epic proportions' and 'just a catastrophic failure.'"

Part of the problem was Otis strengthened at a pace beyond the imagination of most experienced meteorologists and hurricane experts. 

There's a growing consensus, or at least strong opinion among scientists that climate change is making rapid hurricane intensification more likely, and is also making hurricanes harder to predict. 

Says the Washington Post:

"Otis careened from a tropical storm to Category 5 strength in 13 hours, and its peak winds increased 115 mph in 24 hours. That's around a threshold that (MIT hurricane scientist Kerry)  Emanuel wrote was 'essentially nonexistent in the late twentieth-century climate' but increasingly probable in the current warming climate." 

This tragedy isn't just an Acapulco problem. Scientists have been saying in recent years that typhoons and hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean have shown a trend toward rapid intensification due to climate change. 

The Washington Post also referred us to a study released just in the past week that shows more conclusively than in the past that Atlantic hurricanes are also exhibiting that rapid intensification trend. 

"'The increased likelihood for hurricanes to transition from weak storms into major hurricanes in 24 hours or less was particularly striking,'" said Andra Garner, who authored the study. 

We are already seeing the effects of rapidly growing hurricanes surprising residents as they explode in strength just before landfall.  Hurricane Michael in the Florida Panhandle did that in 2018, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 did the same in Texas, as did Hurricane Ian in Florida last year. 

When hurricanes rapidly intensify just before landfall, they catch people off guard, as what happened in Acapulco. That puts people in added danger when they're surprised by much stronger winds and much higher storm surges. 

 Hurricanes thrive on very warm ocean water. The warmer the water the better, at least from the perspective of a hurricane.  Climate change has helped send ocean water in hurricane development zones to record high levels recently. 

Water temperatures off of Acapulco were at an extremely toasty 88 degrees. Expected upper level winds which would have slowed the strengthening of Otis failed to materialize, so the die was cast. 

By the way, we in Vermont are not immune from potential harm from these super hurricanes.  A stronger hurricane in general won't weaken as fast as a small weak system once in makes landfall. So that increases the chances that a strong hurricane striking New England could increase the danger and damage here in the Green Mountain State.

Acapulco isn't dominating the headlines yet, because we don't know the extent of the damage or casualties. But I'm very worried about it.  

Vermont Having Trouble Escaping Rain This Week

 For the second morning in a  row, surprise showers are rolling through Vermont.

Some fairly rare asperatis clouds over Georgia,
Vermont Tuesday, which was another overcast, 
gray day among many lately. 

Once again, they are not going to amount to anything huge, but it's certainly keeping things damp for people doing fall cleanup before winter arrives. 

The gods have been steering extra rain toward us since Saturday.

The weekend storm over-performed, as I noted previously, dumping more than two inches of rain on many parts of Vermont. 

In northern Vermont Sunday, the rain continued all day, without a break. On Monday, skies were slow to clear and drizzle unexpectedly lingered in some areas until mid-day.

Tuesday was supposed to be dry, but what were those pesky light showers doing around all morning. (There was even a pocket or two of freezing rain briefly early in the morning up in the Adirondacks).

At least the thicker than expected overcast also brought us a glimpse of some rare asperitas clouds, which are these weird wavy gray clouds you see in first photo in this post. 

That brings us to this morning. I checked radar when I got up and it was lit up with an army of showers rushing in from New York State and into Vermont.  These are a bit more convective in nature, with a hint of the tall clouds you'd see in summertime showers and thunderstorms. 

It doesn't look like any of these showers contain any thunder or lightning, so don't worry about that. Though I did note a couple lightning strikes west of Montreal, which is interesting. 

Much like yesterday, the showers should pretty much be out of here by this afternoon, knock on wood, fingers crossed for no more surprises.

It is much warmer this morning, so that part of the forecast was spot on. 

Although it will be oddly warm for the next couple of days, it won't be exactly be sunny. And we'll still be prone to these little batches of "surprise" showers.  

Ahead of this morning's batch of showers, convective
clouds began to bubble up around dawn over
St. Albans, Vermont 

The air is going to be really humid for this time of year.  Not uncomfortably so, but still not the type of dry air that is characteristic of late October.

Dew points will be in the 50s.  That will help lead to lots of clouds.  Often when the air is that damp, we can get some good rains. 

But there's no big triggers to set off any steady downpours. Instead, clumps of decaying showers and thunderstorms from the Midwest might pass through from time to time in the form of fast-moving light showers or sprinkles through Friday. 

Most of the time it will be dry, though. 

The warm spell ends over the weekend.  Sunday at this point is looking overcast, cool with increasing chances of rain.   Go figure on a Vermont weekend this year!  The cold rain is probably going to last into Monday, which is Halloween. Hopefully it will end in time for trick or treating that evening. 

We're also going to end this long mostly warm spell that began at the end of August.  For the first time in a long time, we're in for what appears to be a fairly extended period of chillier than normal weather, starting on Halloween. 

For the first time this autumn, the National Weather Service mentions a chance of snow even in the valleys next Monday night and Tuesday. It'll only be flurries, so it's panic time.  But it is a reminder that winter will come, despite the messages this warm autumn has been sending us so far. 

Much Of Vermont Remained Frost-Free Last Night, Continuing Odd Lack Of Cold

 It appears most reporting stations in Vermont did not have a freeze last night or this morning. 

Gorgeous sunrise today in St. Albans, Vermont. The clouds
that caused the pretty skies also prevented many Vermont
towns from having their first freeze of the season. 

There were plenty of reports of fog, and I'm sure there was patchy frost as many places got into the 33 to 35 degree range. 

This ensures that records for latest freeze will be established in many cities.

Montpelier got down to 33 degrees. There was likely some frost in the area, but for official records, they avoided a freeze. At  least since 1970,,the latest freeze on record in Montpelier was on October 31, 1975. 

The forecast calls for continued above freezing temperatures in Montpelier at least through Monday, October 30, and quite possibly beyond, so the record for latest first freeze is in jeopardy.

Same is true at the official National Weather Service measuring site at the Burlington International Airport. The overnight low there was 35 degrees. 

I made a slight error in a post the other day. I claimed the record for latest first freeze of the autumn at the airport was on October 26, 2018.  But I just can't keep up with this onslaught of warm autumn in recent years. 

Last year, in 2022, the first freeze at the airport didn't hit until October 28, and that's the record to beat. 

The record to beat, that is, unless you want to include data prior to 1941.  Weather data shifted to the airport in 1941. The airport is further inland from Lake Champlain than prior measurements. That inland location has less influence from the warming effects of the lake than when measurements were take right in the city of Burlington proper.

So, in that sense, the record to beat is November 1, 1920.

Bottom line: The October 28 record at the airport will surely be broken. It's dicey for the November 1 record. If the Weather Channel's 10-day forecast is to be believed, the expected low temperature on November 1 is 33 degrees, which is a close shave.

Most of us would have had a freeze this morning had skies remained relatively clear and winds light. This morning's low temperatures hit around 2 a.m. today.  Usually temperatures keep heading downward until dawn.

But clouds and winds arrived in the pre-dawn hours, so temperatures actually began to slowly rise after 3 a.m. 

THE OUTLOOK

An unexpected patch of light showers moved through central Vermont this morning, but that will clear out soon if it hasn't already. We're still looking at a warm, but partly to mostly cloudy week. 

Some overnight lows during the second half of the week will be warmer than normal highs for this time of year. Those high temperatures will also flirt with 70 degrees, compared to average highs in the mid 50s.

The extended forecast is uncertain, but it looks like we will gradually step down in temperature this weekend and actually be chillier than average in about a week from now. 

To give you another idea just how warm this autumn has been, September in Burlington tied for the fourth warmest on record.  Given the forecast, this October is almost guaranteed to be among the top five warmest, and has a slight chance of besting the record for the warmest October. 

This year is also likely to yet another in the top ten warmest in Burlington. Already each of the top five warmest  years have happened since 2012.  Climate change, anyone?