Debby Making Florida Landfall This Morning, East Coast Flood Nightmare This Week, Stormy Vermont With A Break

Satellite view of Hurricane Debby this morning just after
making landfall in northwest Florida. 

 Lots to talk about this morning with Hurricane Debby making landfall in Florida, a rough storm day in Vermont Sunday and very likely today as well, an eastern seaboard flood nightmare about to unfold, a break in the weather in Vermont followed by a possible new end of week threat.  

Phew! Like I said, busy. 

HURRICANE DEBBY

Debby was making landfall near Steinhatchie, Florida with a four to seven foot storm surge and sustained winds of 80 mph. So it's quite a blow.  Yes, it's a Category 1 hurricane, but they can still do a lot of damage along the coast. 

Especially since this is occurring just under a year after Category 3 Hurricane Idalia crashed ashore in the same region, maybe just 30 miles or so further up the coast. 

Details on damage so far are sketchy, as you'd imagine. The main trouble with Debby is going to be torrential rains and possibly historic flooding in parts of the Southeast. 

Debby is still expected to slow down to a crawl and linger in or near Georgia and South Carolina through much of this week. Its winds will quickly diminish once its inland today, but it will continue to dump tremendous downpours, as these things do. Debby might briefly head off the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic later this week, which would help sustain its strength. 

As much as six to 12 inches of rain could come down in northern Florida and southeastern Georgia within the next 24 hours. 

Continued torrents tomorrow could dump another half foot or more of rain in parts of Georgia and South Carolina. Parts of South Carolina can expect more than 20 inches of rain.

EAST COAST FLOODING

Areas of flooding, some possibly severe, are definitely possible in various areas of the Eastern Seaboard all week. Much of it depends on what Debby eventually does.  Since it will be meandering around, nobody is quite sure. 

For today, outside the Debby zone, pockets of flooding are possible in sections of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont (more on that below). 

On Tuesday, the best chances of flooding, again, outside the "Debby zone" would in southern New England and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, especially in New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. 

 Wednesday and Thursday,  the flooding will focus once again on the "Debby zone" in the Carolinas. By Friday, the forecast is less certain, but flooding is possible (but not definite!)  anywhere in a zone from South Carolina to central New England. 

ROUGH VERMONT SUNDAY

In the humid air on Sunday afternoon and evening, storms left their mark on a few sections of Vermont, as if we didn't have enough damage. 

A thunderstorm looming over Colchester, Vermont 
Sunday, cut the sky in half, blue on the left, dark and
menacing on the right. The storm knocked some
trees down in South Hero, but weakened as
it moved further east into Colchester and Burlington.

It looks like Rutland and surrounding towns, and unfortunately hard hit St. Johnsbury were the main targets. 

Two rounds of severe storms swept Rutland County. Power was out through much of Rutland City, part of a  series of storm-related power failures to cut electricity to as many as 6,000 Vermont homes and businesses last night. 

Serious tree damage was reported in Rutland, Center Rutland, Castleton, Pittsford and Benson. Flooding  inundated some streets in Rutland, including at the busy intersection of Routes 4 and 7. 

Up in the Northeast Kingdom, renewed flash flooding wrecked some of the repairs to roads that were destroyed in last week's calamitous floods. Several roads in East Burke were washed out again, and new flood damage reports came out of St. Johnsbury. 

ROUGH VERMONT MONDAY

It seemed pretty clear and calm - and even a bit cooler than it's been in Vermont this morning. The calm weather is about to change once again. 

The cold front that will sweep the humid air once and for all means business. It's providing a risk of (ugh!!) new local flash floods across northern and central Vermont today. And severe storms across central and southern Vermont. 

Near the Canadian border,  it won't be sunny long enough this morning to destabilize the air much. Showers were already gathering in New York, and will increase by this afternoon as the cold front settles in.  So severe thunderstorms north of Route 2 seem pretty unlikely today. 

The rain could come down hard enough, even up by the Canadian border to set off some local flash floods. Again, not sure where, you can never tell in advance, but beware. 

There's a flash flood risk from Route 2 and points south as well, and that will be mixed with a second day of locally damaging thunderstorms. There could be a couple rounds of severe storms, too, much like what Rutland had to deal with Sunday. 

Everything will be hit and miss. Most of us will not get enough rain to trigger flash floods. It'll be hit and miss. So will the storms. Most places won't have storm damage, but a few will really get nailed by microbursts and strong winds. 

Just stay weather aware and heed any weather warnings you get today. 

VERMONT OUTLOOK

Yes, we will be cool and (mostly) dry Tuesday through Thursday. We'll enjoy the much cooler temperatures and much, much lower humidity. 

As for that risk from Debby's remnants at the end of the week or weekend, we just don't know whether or how it will affect Vermont. Some computer models bring torrential rain to at least parts of Vermont, other models are in the "meh" category. 

We'll just have to wait for updated forecasts on that. 

Debby Set To Cause Florida/Southeast Disaster; Lots of Questions Remain About Forecast Here In Vermont

Tropical Storm Debby had "that look" on satellite photos
this morning that suggested it wants to intensify
pretty fast before making landfall in northwestern
Florida sometime on Monday. 

 Yesterday's Wannabe Debby near Cuba is this morning's strengthening Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles west of Tampa. 

I decided to wait until late this morning to post, so I could get the most updated information on the tropical storm.  Debby's top sustained winds had increased to 65 mph by late this morning. It's getting close to becoming a hurricane. 

Debby is taking full advantage of extremely warm waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico so that it is getting stronger pretty quickly and will be a hurricane when it makes landfall in what is known as Florida's Big Bend on Monday. 

That Big Bend is the area in northwest Florida where the peninsula bends and transitions to the Florida panhandle.

Anyway, the forecast looks very sure on its path to that landfall, and there's even a chance it could be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. (That would mean sustained winds of at least 96 mph). 

After that, forecasters have serious questions as to what Debby will do next, but significant to maybe catastrophic flooding  (here we go again!) is likely somewhere in the Southeast.

Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, we have our own forecasts questions, unrelated, at least for now to Tropical Storm Debby. More on that further down.

DEBBY

This is becoming an unpleasant trend.  Climate change and other factors have led to record  or near record high water temperatures in most of the areas where hurricanes form and grow. This is jet fuel for hurricanes, and we keep seeing hurricanes become monsters as a result.

That's why Hurricane Beryl earlier this summer managed to become a Category 5 beast in the Caribbean. It's why Hurricane Michael back in 2018 was able to slam into roughly the same spot in Florida  as a Category 5 calamity that Debby will hit. The hot water is one major reason why we had so many other intense hurricanes in recent years.     

The saving grace with Debby is it won't have all that much time over water where it can strengthen. It only has about 24 hours to do so. But a lot can change in a day, so we'll really have to watch the intensity of this thing.

Debby already had those sustained winds of 65 mph late this morning, as mentioned.As you can see in the visible satellite photo of Debby this morning it has "that look" that suggests it really wants to turn powerful. The inner core of the storm still wasn't completely well organized as of early this morning. How fast that core gets its act together will determine how strong it gets. 

One rather ominous sign is that Debby was showing signs of forming a central eye late this morning, indicating that its organizational skills are pretty good. 

In any event, Florida's Big Bend can expect damaging winds, a ferocious, destructive storm surge and torrential rains.  The storm surge could be made bigger by two factors: Debby's overall size is pretty big, which means it can push more water into a storm surge. Also, that bend in the coastline along that part of Florida can compress incoming water from the left and right, causing higher surges.

That's why mandatory evacuations are ongoing today in areas near where Debby will make landfall.

That torrential rain will become the main, worrisome feature of Debby in the coming days. 

Uncertain Path, Big Rain Dump

The trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that is steering Debby toward Florida's Big Bend is dissipating and moving on, which will leave very little to push Debby in any particular direction after it makes landfall. 

When hurricanes make landfall, their strong winds quickly collapse into much lighter breezes. But these systems generate torrential rainfall for days after landfall. That's part of the reason we had a destructive flood here in Vermont back on July 10-11.  The remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which had made landfall in Texas days earlier, was able to contribute torrential downpours to a stalled weather front over Vermont. 

One problem is we don't know if the center of Debby will linger inland over the Southeast, or manage to  make its way just off the coast of Georgia or South Carolina. Either way, destructive flooding from inland downpours is inevitable. But if Debby goes off the coast, it'll have a chance to re-strengthen before moving back inland. 

No matter what happens, Debby is going to be a big problem in the Southeast starting today and going right through the week. 

In fact, due in part to Debby, more than enough rain to cause flooding is a decent bet at various times from now through next weekend anywhere from Florida to Maine. Which leads us to talk about Vermont. 

Spoiler: It's not dire, but we do have to watch the weather.

VERMONT FORECAST

The humidity grinds on. We are now on Day 6 in a row at Burlington in which the temperature failed to dip below 70 degrees. Saturday was the 14th day this year in Burlington which made it to 90 degrees. That's a tie for seventh most in a year. 

The Lake Champlain lake temperature was bath water this morning - 82 degrees which has to be a record high. 

We have 24 hours of oppressive humidity left in Vermont before the long awaited big change comes. Maybe a little more than 24 hours south. But it's coming. 

Until then, we have the ever-present risk of torrential showers and thunderstorms. They're always a risk in this kind of weather. 

Seems like every thunderstorm makes you worry, because we're spooked by the twin flash floods of July, and the other floods we endured last year. 

One storm popped up near Bolton and Huntington last evening that lingered for a bit. But luckily, it moved on and weakened just before it could cause major trouble.  I noticed a flood advisory for a corner of far southwestern Vermont early this morning, and locally  heavy rain was going on in spots in far southern parts of the state as of mid-morning.

More hit and miss storms are a good bet this afternoon and evening. Once again, many places won't see anything. Other places will get a quick drenching but otherwise not a big deal. But isolated places once again face the risk of microbursts, which would cause small pockets of wind damage, and isolated flash floods. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us at a marginal risk (level one of five) of severe storms today. Southern Vermont is under a marginal risk (level one of four) of flash flooding today. I think northern Vermont has a very low, but not zero chance of one or two flash floods. NOT a panic moment, for sure. 

Monday

The risk of severe storms and flash flooding will rise somewhat in Vermont as that long-awaited cold front comes in. It'll arrive early enough north of Route 2 to suggest the risk of severe storms is very, very low. We are under a marginal risk of flash flooding in all but far southern Vermont due to some downpours expected along the front.  

But in central and southern Vermont, there is the risk of severe storms. Morning sunshine will increase instability before the cold front pushes in, so we'll have time to see scattered severe storms to develop. Those areas are under level 2 risk of severe storms. 

Although rain might linger into the evening, we're still expecting the start of the longest period of coolish, low humidity days we've seen in quite some time.  Tuesday through Thursday look great, though some minor questions in the forecast mean there's a non-zero chance of light showers Tuesday, and maybe Thursday. 

Beyond that, we have HUGE question marks. During our break from the oppressive weather, that deep heat and moisture will be lurking not too far to our south.  It could surge back northwards at least briefly toward the end of the week. Plus nobody has any idea what Debby or its remnants might do. 

So stay tuned on that.  

Project 2025 Goals: Take Away Free, Accurate Weather Forecasts and Warnings, Make Them Expensive And Less Accurate

Among the many bad ideas in the Heritage Foundation's
Project 2025 is breaking up NOAA and probably
putting what are now free, accurate weather forecasts
and warnings behind paywalls. 

 There's lots of buzz about Project 2025 and the great harm it would cause if Donald Trump goes along with this blueprint.  

Project 2025 is  detailed, 922-page plan put together by the conservative Heritage Foundation of how they see the federal government radically changing if Trump is elected. Trump himself says he knows little to nothing of the plan, but a lot of observers aren't buying that.  

If enacted, it would concentrate power in the presidency, leading to the risk of abuses of that power. It would impose a hardline religious agenda. And it would gut numerous federal agencies, and do things like abolish the Department of Education,  intensely slash Medicaid, and purge the government of federal employees and replace them with Trump loyalists and hacks.  

Which brings us to a topic more related to the point of this here blog thingy. Which is what it Project 2025 would do to the National Weather Service and NOAA.

Project 2025 would make it harder to obtain weather forecasts - even those that have life-saving warnings. Chances are it would make the forecasts less accurate. It would end research and information into climate change. And would flood the agency with all those loyalists and hacks I mentioned. 

PAYWALL FORECASTS?

The United States - like in most developed countries - delivers free weather forecasts, storm warnings, and often life-saving advice on coping with dangerous weather. Think about how many lives must have been saved over the years because National Weather Service meteorologists issued tornado, hurricane, flood and winter storm warnings to the public. 

Those warnings are available to everybody.  As The Atlantic points out, all this is available for the low, low price in taxpayer dollars of $4 per person annually. 

One of many scary things about Project 2025 is that it might privatize weather forecasts, which could put them behind a paywall. Which means people who can't afford such forecasts would be out of luck.  

"What you do not want is a paywall system of weather where only paying customers can find out if they're about to drive into a tornado," John Oliver once said. 

He was then referring to a now- abandoned proposal by AccuWeather some years ago to take over forecasting services from NOAA.

But this is precisely what we'd get out of Project 2025. As Outside Magazine writes, this proposal would have a private company like AccuWeather take over many of NOAA's functions, and we'd have to start paying for weather reports a warnings. 

Forget people with low incomes. They high and mighty hard core right wing clearly believes only people with money "deserve" life-saving weather warnings and information. 

That's a slap in the face to everybody, including who knows how many Vermonters who were saves by cost-free warnings during the extreme flash floods we had last month. 

AccuWeather, to their credit, rejected the idea of their organization replacing the National Weather Service, unlike their public stance several years ago.  But Project 2025 backers would likely just find another organization - probably one much less reputable than AccuWeather, to do the weather forecasting. 

Which begs the question, how accurate would those privatized forecast be, if you had enough money to afford them? Perhaps not very. Especially since these forecasts might not be produced by scientists, but political hacks who would put spin for their Dear Leader above actual facts. 

The Project 2025 document makes the false claim that private weather firms offer more accurate forecasts than the National Weather Service. Besides, private weather forecasting companies rely on NOAA data to make their forecasts. 

After all, one of Project 2025's goals is to "ensure appointees agree with administrative aims."

Will these privatized forecasts tell you the hurricane is headed your way? Or will it falsely tell you it's headed somewhere else to satisfy the whim of Trump or whoever is in charge?

The track record isn't good. Meteorologist in Chief Trump back in 2019 said massive Hurricane Dorian would hit Alabama. Real meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service disagreed, saying Dorian would miss Alabama.

Those professional meteorologists were of course correct, as Alabama escaped unscathed from Dorian, but Trump could not stand to being contradicted by those lowly dumb scientists. Which is why he produced a hurricane prediction map, suspiciously altered by a Sharpie to "show" that Dorian was headed toward Alabama. 

You can see how Trump, if he's re-elected, or some other egomaniac would go further and really try to mislead the public about dangerous storms 

That's especially true because most scientists believe climate change is a real threat. The fine folk at the Heritage Foundation beg to differ. In their Project 2025 scheme, they would stop anything that even hints at climate research.

For instance, as Outside reports, Project 2025 would downsize the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. That bunch provides scientific research so that forecasters can better understand tornadoes, hurricanes, other storms, climate change and ecosystem health. 

"The source of much of NOAA's climate alarmism," sniffs the folks at Project 2025.  

Lately, you've probably seen on the news that some Republicans, including Trump, have been backing away from Project 2025, whether they explicitly say so or not.  

That's because there's so much in there that so many people don't like. Remember, though, they're just going to keep it relatively quiet unless and until Trump is elected. Then they'll unleash this monstrosity, whether you like it or not. 

Wannabe Debby, Florida, Heat, Humidity, Vermont And You

Satellite view of what will become Tropical Storm
Debby as it was just starting to organize near Cuba
on Friday. It poses a threat to Florida in the coming days. 

 The heat drones on here in Vermont, where Burlington on Friday had its 13th day this summer with temperatures in the 90s. 

It was still above 70 degrees at dawn today in Burlington, the fifth consecutive morning of such stuffy conditions. 

People aren't getting much relief from Lake Champlain, either. We've had so many warm, muggy days and nights that the water temperature is hovering around a record high of 80 degrees.

  If the lake were an ocean, that would be warm enough to sustain a tropical storm or hurricane. 

No tropical storms here in Vermont. Scattered tropical showers over the next couple of days, maybe, but no tropical storms or hurricanes. 

Not so in Florida, which is under the gun from what I am for now calling Wannabe Debby.  It's a tropical depression that was just south of Cuba this morning.  It's organizing into what forecasters widely expect to become a full-fledged tropical storm by later today or tonight, and then they would name it Debby. 

It's expected to move generally northward, past Cuba and into the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. That will allow this thing to strengthen pretty efficiently and become a tropical storm or even possibly a Category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches northwestern Florida, probably on Monday. 

That'll open up swaths of Florida to coastal storm surges, wind and especially inland flooding. 

Wannabe Debby will probably slow down its forward motion as it passes through the southeastern United States early next week. That'll prolong the rain and intensify any flooding that goes on. 

It's also unclear what will become of Wannabe Debby once it reaches the Southeast. A trough of low pressure - the same one that promises to eventually clear out the ugly humidity in Vermont, could lift it northeastward, eventually passing just off the New England coast (probably, hopefully, too far east to give Vermont much trouble with rain)

Or, the trough of low pressure could entirely miss Wannabe Debby, leaving it behind to meander aimlessly somewhere near the Southeast coast. We'll just wait and see on that one.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Damage from a microburst in Colchester Vermont that
occurred this past Tuesday. There could be isolated
damaging microbursts in Vermont Sunday, but those
instances should be few and far between

So far at least, signs mostly suggest that Wannabe Debby won't be our problem here in Vermont. But the way this summer's going,  you never know, so stay tuned to local forecasts.

For now, we're stuck with the humid, icky weather through Monday morning at least. There was some spotty rain around this morning, but it didn't amount to much.

As usual in this kind of weather, some scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. They will be relatively few and far between, but of course any that do develop could stir up some locally torrential downpours. 

Sunday has a better chance of scattered storms, but again, not everybody will get 'em. Coverage of storms should be greater than it will be today.  There could be some isolated microbursts from some of these storms. Those can cause small swaths of pretty serious wind damage, like what happened in Colchester this past Tuesday.

The vast majority of us won't see anything like that, but a couple small spots might. 

Isolated instances of flash flooding are again possible, too, but it shouldn't be anything widespread. 

That long-awaited cold front should slowly limp through Vermont Monday with more showers.  It's still looking like we'll finally be into the much cooler, drier air by Tuesday and that would continue through the week. 

I have to wonder, though, whether Wannabe Debby will allow that front to progress very far south and east.  If that Wannabe Debby hangs up that front, rain could linger off and on, especially in southern Vermont, during much of next week. 

For now, though, the forecasts say we'll have at least a fair amount of sun, especially  north, to accompany those long awaited cooler days. 

The Heat, Humidity And Rain And Storms Continue, But Relief Is On The Vermont Horizon

 We pretty much started August the way we endured almost all of July -- hot and humid. 

The early morning sky today in St. Albans, Vermont had
that humid, hazy, vaguely smoky quality to it that
almost always heralds a hot, humid day. Expect it
to be close to 90 this afternoon with crappy humidity. 

Will it ever end? Spoiler: Yes. 

It was 90 degrees yet again in Burlington on Thursday, the 12th day this year it's gotten at least the hot. I looked back in Burlington's weather records and could find only 18 summers out of the past 115 years that had as many days reaching 90 degrees.

This summer could well get into slightly more rare territory today. The forecast calls for a high of at least 90 degrees in Burlington today. A heat advisory has been posted for the Champlain Valley and the western half of Rutland county through 8 pm. today. 

The heat, combined with the humidity, should make it feel like it's in the mid-90s. The rest of Vermont didn't quite qualify for a heat advisory, but it will still be incredibly oppressive and dangerous if you're working too hard out there. 

Those of you involved in flood cleanup in the Northeast Kingdom need to slow it down and take a lot of water and shade breaks. I know you want to get back up on your feet, but please not at the expense of heat exhaustion or possibly fatal heat stroke. 

Heat effects are cumulative, and it's been nasty for awhile. Today was the fourth morning in a row in Burlington that didn't make it below 70 degrees. Take it easy, folks! 

To make matters even a bit worse, there will be some wildfire smoke in the air, too. Most of it will be aloft, so air quality shouldn't get too bad here on terra firma. But people with breathing issues should take care. A little pollution combined with the heat can be a nasty combo.

MORE RAIN CHANCES

Much like Thursday, any showers and thunderstorms that might pop up during the afternoon will be very few and far between. And probably small. So those of you spooked by the risk of flash floods can have a day off.  Some showers and a few storms might work their way into mostly southern Vermont overnight tonight. But soils aren't that wet down there. Southern Vermont can probably handle it 

Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday are different. On those days, there's a low, but not zero chance of local, isolated instances of renewed flash flooding. As if we need it. Showers and storms will increase both days as weather disturbances and cold fronts approach.  

As always, they will be hit and miss. As always in a Vermont summer, the distribution of rainfall is uneven. This year, it's extreme. In the past week, an area around St. Johnsbury has gotten at least 8.5 inches of rain. Here in St. Albans, the grand total over the past seven days adds up to just 0.2 inches. 

It's impossible to know in advance who will get nailed by downpours and who will escape with nothing worse than sprinkles. I'll emphasize if flash flooding does crop up again, it should be just isolated cases. You know the drill by now. 

It will remain quite warm and humid, though 90 degree temperatures seem unlikely given the expected clouds and showers. 

LONG LASTING RELIEF?

Notice above I said cold fronts. We're still looking at an extremely noticeable change in the weather pattern. One that will drop temperatures and especially humidity. 

You'll notice the humidity declining Monday. Perhaps not until later in the day, but it seems to be on the way. And if the forecasts hold, Tuesday and Wednesday look downright refreshing. 

Knock on wood, this shift to cooler weather might have some staying power. Unlike the very few brief breaks we've seen this summer. Some extended forecasts have the coolish weather more or less continuing into mid-month. 

Not sure whether that will pan out. But we're past the peak of summer. We expect better and better chances of cool breaks as we go through the month. Even if we're still at risk of muggy, oppressive spells into early September. 

No Surprise, July Was A Tough Weather Month In Vermont

 The weather of July, 2024 was easily one of the roughest summer months on record in Vermont. 

A destroyed section of road in Richmond, Vermont after
the devastating July 11 floods. Hundreds of roads in
Vernon have been damaged by big flash floods on
July 11 and 30.

What isn't there to hate? Two major flood disasters, lots of other storms, one of the hottest Julys on record, relentless humidity, only a few refreshing days and even a little wildfire smoke thrown in at the end. 

RAIN/STORMS

The wildest record of the month comes from St. Johnsbury. They had a whopping total of 17.15 rain during July, 2024. That exceeded the amount in the previous record month by a full six inches. 

That includes what was by far their wettest day on record, 8.08 inches during their big flood on Tuesday. During Vermont's other big flood on July 11, St. Johnsbury had its fourth wettest day on record with 4.93

That rain came in incredibly short bursts. St. Johnsbury had about a foot of rain in a total of about 12 hours during July. 

Rainfall in Vermont was incredibly maldistributed. Plainfield, completely hammered by the July 10-11 flood, reported an impressive 10 inches of rain for July.  They were so much less than St. Johnsbury because the July 30 storm that trashed St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville didn't affect Plainfield at all. On July 30, Plainfield reported a boring 0.26 inches of rain. 

A small picturesque storm over Lake Champlain on July 6
Unlike so many Vermont storms in July, this
particular one was harmless. 

Montpelier was very wet with a month's total of 8.08 inches, which was 3.77 inches above normal. Burlington was sort of wet, with a total of 5.35 inches. That's about an inch and a quarter on the wet side. 

But Lebanon, New Hampshire, which is a good proxy for White River Junction, Vermont, had just 3.11 inches of rain, which is nearly an inch on the light side.  Woodstock, Vermont reported just 2.56 inches of rain, nearly 1.5 inches below normal.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor regards southeastern Vermont as "abnormally dry."

HEAT

Once again, we had another top 10 hottest July. The mean temperature in Burlington came to 75.7good enough to be the third hottest July on record, just behind 2020 and 2018.  
 

With July, 2024 in the books, we now have four of the top five hottest Julys all having occurred since 2018.

This July was in a four- way tie for second most days reaching 80 or more. In 2020, there were 30 such days. This July, 1975, 2018 and 2019 were the ones with 29 such days. .

Nights were particularly tough, as you might have noticed. In Burlington, only four nights got under 60 degrees. Seven nights stayed at or above 70 degrees. 

Storms that can't quit. Hours after a catastrophic flood in
Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, a microburst felled
numerous trees in Colchester, Vermont, just kind of
one last slap in the face in a difficult weather month. 

Down in Lebanon, New Hampshire, they had 12 consecutive days between July 6 and 17 that reached at least 90 degrees. That's easily their longest heat wave on record. 

Also with July on the books, Burlington is still on track to have its hottest year on record. Incredibly, five of the seven months so far this year have been among the top ten warmest in Burlington. Of course, if the rest of the year is cool, that won't happen. But the pace is sure there for now. 

As if the flood disasters and heat weren't enough, the blue skies (when it would stop raining!) of early summer have largely been replaced by a hazy blue-gray tone of wildfire smoke aloft. That state of affairs will probably continue for the rest of summer and early autumn, since there are so many fires burning out west. 

Some days will have that deep blue sky we love, but many more will be hazy. So far, the air quality down here on the ground where we breathe hasn't been too bad. 

I guess one good thing to come out of this July is that severe thunderstorms with major wind damage weren't really more frequent than usual, despite the torrential downpours. We did see wind damage from some storms scattered around the state on July 10, 17, 23 and 30. We still have no confirmed tornadoes in Vermont so far this year, despite them occurring in surrounding states and Quebec. 

Despite the hot, oppressive opening of August, there are some signs that we could have a cooler month. Long range forecasts from August 6 to 14 have odds favoring somewhat cooler than normal temperatures during that period. 

Those same long range outlooks tilt our chances toward seeing above normal rainfall. Good for southeastern Vermont, bad for the rest of us. 

Long range forecasts are iffy, so take that extended outlook with a grain of salt. 

 

Quick Thursday Morning Update: Bullet WAS Dodged; Break From Storms Today?

The Spanked Puppy Restaurant and Pub
in Colchester posted this photo of storm
damage to their business on Tuesday.
They were forced to shut down for that
evening, but have since re-opened. 

 Have to get an early start this Thursday morning, so a quick very early post to say:

Good morning! And no, Vermont did NOT have any huge new flood problems on Wednesday. 

We did have that new flash flood warning last evening for the Northeast Kingdom, including hard-hit St Johnsbury and Lyndonville. 

I'm sure that - and the heavy rain that did fall - freaked a lot of people out in that neck of the woods. 

Luckily it didn't rain hard or long enough to cause major issues. Sure, there was some minor trouble. I saw a photo on Facebook of some water over the road on Route 122 between Lyndonville and Sheffield. I'm also sure there was some more erosion on steep roads and driveways. But nothing cataclysmic. 

It seems the "training" storms - those that kept going over the same areas repeatedly, focused more on New Hampshire than in Vermont. 

Several roads were closed in Grafton County, New Hampshire, across the Connecticut River from Vermont and east of the St. Johnsbury/Lyndonville area. Up to 4.5 inches of rain was reported in that New Hampshire county. 

Lost in all this, that I should mention, is the degree of storm damage in parts of Burlington and Colchester Tuesday afternoon. It looks like the area was afflicted by a microburst, especially around the area of the eastern end of Bay Road, Route 2 and the western part of Main Street in Colchester. 

Many trees fell, some landing atop houses.  The popular Spanked Puppy Restaurant and Pub was damaged by falling trees and forced to close for business Tuesday. The damage has since been cleaned up and the business has  re-opened

The weather story today and tomorrow is just more hot, humid weather. There are chances of showers and thunderstorms. But they will be limited in number, size, scope and longevity, so I wouldn't worry about new flash flooding either day. 

More storms on Saturday and Sunday could create a few instances of water trouble, but so far, the risk doesn't look extreme. Definitely worth keeping an eye on,  though. 

We're still seeing signs of a major change in the weather pattern that could give us a fairly extended period of mostly cooler, much less humid weather next week. 

I'll have a post today that will give you all the proof you need that you lived through one of the worst weather Julys on record. Let's hope for a calmer August!