A Vermont Power Company Promising No Outages Despite Climate Change Dangers

Vermont's Green Mountain Power, weighed down by the
expense of repairs after climate change-driven storms,
is launching an initiative to harden its system with
a goal to prevent all power outages. Is it feasible?

 Can a decent sized electrical utility eliminate power outages?

It doesn't seem likely, but Vermont's Green Mountain Power is going to try. And company representatives say they will do it by 2030. 

This is a first of its kind initiative anywhere in the nation. I'm sure other utilities and energy experts around the nation are watching to see how this all works out. 

Here's how Green Mountain Power announced it back on October 10:

"Green Mountain Power (GMP) today launched its Zero Outages Initiative, the first utility in the country to commit to a comprehensive, data-driven plan that creates layers of resiliency across Vermont but building on GMP's successful and proactive undergrounding and storm-hardening of lines, as well as deployment of energy storage through batteries and microgrids."

Like so many corporate, government and individual decisions these days, GMPs plans are at least in part motivated by climate change. 

Storms in Vermont, often supercharged by climate change, has taken a toll on GMP, along with many other utilities. As GMP's press release states: 

"For context, major storms are escalating and sustainable. In the past twelve months alone, major storms required more than $5 million in repairs. Since 2013, major storms caused $115 million in damage across GMP's service area, with 60% of that in the last five years. 40% of that in just the last two years, and the $45 million in 2023 was the most yet. That is money spent to repair the existing system and get customers reconnected after storm damage, and it does not prevent future outages."

GMP President and CEO Mari McClure told Vermont Public that the increasing storminess associated with climate change is the biggest threat to the electrical grid, which is why the utility is acting. 

According to filings with state regulators, the Zero Outages initiative would cost up to $280 million over the next two years, then another $250 for putting lines underground or hardening them against storms, and $30 million for energy storage. 

The utility hopes to recoup much of that investment by sharply reducing the need to conduct expensive storm repairs. 

As Vermont Public reports, here's how this "zero outage" strategy would work: 

Distribution lines in very rural parts of the state would be relocated underground. That would eliminate the risk of trees falling on the lines and cutting power. 

Then there main feeder lines which originate in substations and go out into towns and cities throughout Vermont. These lines serve both rural and urban parts of the state. These lines would be strongly reinforced and insulated to withstand the pressure of falling trees and branches. 

There's a substation a short distance from my St. Albans, Vermont home and one of those feeder lines goes right by my house. There's a lot of trees hovering over near my place.  It will be interesting to see what GMP does to this feeder line when the work starts. 

Finally, people in very rural areas would receive batteries to store electricity. That way, if remote electrical wires are cut by storms, people in these outlying areas will still have a supply of power until the lines are repaired. 

Energy experts are aligned with my thoughts that GMP's zero outage goal is laudable, but probably not completely attainable. Especially with the boost from climate change, there will always be storms that overwhelm the defenses the utility is trying to put up. 

The initiative needs approval from the Vermont Public Utility Commission before it can start. If the approval arrives, the first work on the project would start sometime next spring or summer. 

 

A Wintry Period In Vermont, But Is A Warmer Reprieve In The Works?

Workers in snowy Taylor Park in St. Albans Thursday
install Christmas lights near a still oddly green 
maple tree. About an inch of snow fell there Thursday.

We survived the first wintry day in Vermont Thursday (I'm not really counting the light snow on November 1) so is this it? Is winter here to stay?  

Indications are, maybe not. We might see a warm reprieve mid month. More on that in a minute. 

The forecasts ahead of the wintry precipitation Thursday ended up being quite accurate. Most places got about an inch of snow, or just a wee bit more than that. This was close to the forecasts of about an inch.

There was a weird localized area of about two inches in and around Burlington, Colchester, Winooski and Essex The official total at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington was 2.0 inches.  I'm not sure why. Those areas aren't usually the snow winners in any storm. 

Video scenes of the snow around St. Albans are at the bottom of this post. 

Temperatures actually stayed fairly mild overnight, as there was no real push of cold air behind the weakening storm that brought Thursday's snow. For most of us, temperatures stayed steady or actually went up a little last evening and overnight. 

Snow that didn't melt during the damp, overcast weather Thursday did so in many valleys last night. The snow cover was pretty, but short lived. 

We're not done with the cold weather, though. Another cold front is coming through later today, and that will keep us on the chilly side for a few days. Today will actually be kind of mild ahead of the front, with highs well into the 40s - about normal for this time of year.

After that, it gets pretty chilly again for a few days. Nothing wildly cold for this time of year, but you'll probably want your winter jackets. Highs Saturday through Monday will be in the 30s, with lows in the 20s. We could see some teens in the colder spots. 

Very little precipitation is in the cards for us over the next few days. There might be a few scattered showers with today's cold front, flurries in spots overnight, that's about it. The next shot of any light precipitation is Tuesday.   

But yeah, not exactly late season gardening weather, huh?  

Forecasts for six to ten days out from now indicate
most of the United States, including us here in
Vermont, are in for a switch to warmer weather. 

But there's hope for those of you (like me!) who haven't gotten their fall outdoor chores done yet. We have increasing signs of a pattern change for mid-month, probably starting later in the upcoming week.

Actually, almost the whole nation looks like it will be quite warm, with the heat centered in the Plains and western Great Lakes. They'll probably see some more record highs out that way in a little over a week or so.

Between climate change and El Nino, it seems hard to have any sustained cold anywhere lately. 

Long range forecasts are iffy but meteorologists seem pretty confident that we in Vermont will share in at least some relatively mild air mid-month.  I'm not yet sure how warm it will get, but it will certainly be toastier than this weekend will be. 

The first week of our potential warmer spell looks mostly dry, too, so you can get out there and get some last minute stuff done. 

Video: Scenes of snow around my house, Jackson the Weather Dog takes careful measurements and readings of the snow, and workers install Christmas lights in St. Albans Taylor Park amid the snow and near a still oddly green maple tree.

To view, click on this link, or if you see the image below, click on that.

A Vermont Traffic Cam Proves The "Bridges Freeze Before Roads" Warnings

Northbound Interstate 89 Exit 10 in Waterbury,
Vermont this morning in this screen grab from a 
Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam. Note the
area of snow and ice ahead of the vehicle. That's
a bridge, showing how they DO freeze before the road.

As of early afternoon, road conditions had vastly improved in Vermont since this morning. 

The snow has stopped, and there were only a few patches of non-freezing drizzle left behind. Most places were a little above freezing as of 2 p.m. 

This morning, the worry was bridges and overpasses freezing even if roadways stayed fairly clear due to warm ground temperatures. 

That set up is especially dangerous, because speeding traffic encountering frozen pavement on bridges is a recipe for crashes.

There was a great illustration of the bridges freeze before road rule this morning on a Vermont Agency of Transportation webcam. It showed Interstate 89 northbound in Waterbury, including Exit 10 to Route 100.

The long exit ramp includes a bridge over Graves Brook. The screen grab in this post shows what the exit looked like during this morning's storm. Click on the image in this post to make it bigger and easier to see. 

As you can see, the Interstate, and most of the exit ramp looked just wet, maybe a little slushy.  But see that stripe of white in front of the vehicle taking the exit?  That's the bridge I was talking about. It was snow and ice covered, unlike the rest of the road.

The vehicle in the photo appeared to be braking, the motorist probably wisely anticipating the ice on the bridge. 

The bridges freeze before road rule will be with us all winter. But it's especially prevalent this time of year, when lingering warmth in the ground radiates to the road surface. There's no ground under bridges, obviously, so those overpasses get cold, quickly. 

Let this be a lesson: Don't let icy bridges surprise you this winter. Keep your speed steady and slow on approach to the bridge.  Don't smash your foot on the brake as soon as you are on the bridge.  You will probably spin out. Don't do any sharp accelerations or turn your steering wheel much. Just coast across to the other side.  

By the way, if a thermometer in your car says it's above freezing, don't necessarily trust it. It might be, say, 34 degrees. But it could well have been below freezing recently, and the bridge might not have had a chance to thaw out yet. 

All this is just a word to the wise, as it's just the start of winter. 

Winter Weather Arrived In Vermont As Expected. Roads Lousy

Just as predicted, I woke up to about an inch of new
snow in St. Albans, Vermont. So did most of the
rest of the state. Slick roads this morning!

 Just as expected, a burst of snow swept into most of Vermont early this morning. 

At dawn, or around 6:30 a.m. it appeared it was snowing everywhere except some of the valleys of far southern Vermont, where a cold rain was falling. The winter weather advisory is accurate, so you'll need to deal with icky weather this morning for sure. 

Mixed precipitation in New York State was spreading rapidly toward Vermont, so expect some sleet and freezing rain. 

As of 7 a.m. roads  pretty much everywhere were slick, judging from Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic cameras. Road crews are out. I hear them everywhere around my place in St. Albans. As expected, bridges and overpasses looked the worst. That said, there was black ice most anywhere on the roads

Reports of crashes are piling up across Vermont. Interstate 89 southbound in Georgia was closed for a time due to crashes. At last report at 7 a.m., one lane had re-opened. Expect more delays on the roads through this morning. 

You will need to leave early to get to work on time, and you will need to take it easy. 

I also see a lot of schools in and around Vermont have delayed openings, and a few are closed today. You'll want to check with your local districts to see what's going on for you. 

These delayed openings are a good idea, as conditions should start to improve as the morning goes along. 

Radar from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington as of 6:30 a.m. showed the steady snow would soon transition to showery stuff. As the morning wears on, sometimes it will be snowing, sleeting, or raining, with some ice, other times it won't be doing anything at all.

Periods of freezing rain are still a threat  through this morning. Some places, especially in the Champlain Valley might make a clean change from snow to rain without bothering with the ice. Other areas are in for up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain.  

These breaks in the precipitation coming in are good, because it might allow road crews to really get on top of everything.  Temperatures are starting to go up, so the Champlain Valley should be above freezing my mid morning. Those above freezing temperatures should spread through the rest of Vermont during the late morning and early afternoon. 

Until then, watch out on those roads. And underfoot with that fresh dusting of snow and ice. 

The winter weather advisory is set to expire at 1 p.m. today. 

That's not to say the rest of the day will be nice. Far from it. It will stay cloudy, and winds will pick up from the south.  We'll still be dealing with light showers of cold rain, snow, and maybe sleet most of the day.

High temperatures today will come later than usual, probably after sunset. By then, it should be near 40 degrees. So not exactly toasty. 

Gusts will reach 35 mph or even a little more in some spots. Normally a tenth of an inch of ice on trees and wires isn't anything to worry about. But if the ice remains when the wind picks up, that could be enough to cause a few isolated power outages later this morning and early afternoon.

By the way, winds will be particularly strong on Lake Champlain. Duck hunters take note: This is NOT the day to go out on Lake Champlain.  Wave heights could reach five or six feet during the peak of the winds early this afternoon. Tomorrow will be better, I promise. 

LOOKING AHEAD

After our early taste of winter, things should definitely quiet down for the next few days. Friday features clouds and a few showers. It will be the warmest day we'll have for a little while, with highs in the mid 40s.

Cold, quiet weather should last through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. That means highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, with teens in the cold spots. It'll turn a little warmer by mid week. 

Very little, if any snow or rain is in the forecast Saturday through Wednesday. 

Wednesday Evening Wintry Update: Vermont Thursday Morning Commute Still Looks Icky

Much to my husband's chagrin (He doesn't want to deal with
winter) I set out our snow shovel on our deck in anticipation
of a messy snow/sleet/ice event Thursday morning. 

 Winter weather advisories continue in Vermont for at least the first half of Thursday as the first "wonderful" mixed precipitation event of the season arrives in the Green Mountain State.  

We're still looking a quick pre-dawn burst of snow crossing the state from southwest to northeast, mostly just before or around dawn. We're still probably in for an inch or so of snow, give or take, but it will quickly transition to sleet and freezing rain. 

As mentioned this morning, that's just in time for tomorrow's morning commute. So it will be a mess. The scenario I outlined this morning still looks likely.  In many areas, relatively warm ground temperatures will keep many main roads just wet or slushy. But certain cold spots and definitely bridges and overpasses will ice over. 

That will surprise people driving along at full speed, only to encounter icy bridges and get into a mess. If you want an illustration of how this works, click on this link for a video of wet "safe" roads and icy bridges causing several pileups in Wisconsin on November 1. 

As always in these mixed precipitation events, results may vary.  It will either be a little worse or a little better than current forecasts. Plus, things will be very different from one town to another. The eventual transition to a non-freezing cold rain or drizzle might be quick in some spots, especially in some parts of the Champlain Valley.

But the freezing schmutz could last longer in some areas. You never know exactly where, so take care on the roads, 

Bottom line: It still looks like you'll need to plan extra time to get to your destination if you have to go anywhere tomorrow morning. The Interstate 89 corridor in Vermont might be a particular mess. That's because that's basically the main highway in the major population and employment areas of the state. And there are few alternative routes.

One crash can gum up a long stretch of the Interstate. 

Increasing cloudiness Wednesday afternoon over St. Albans,
Vermont in advance of tomorrow's messy mixed
precipitation morning commute.

So bosses: If your employees show up late to work and they blame the weather, cut them some slack. 

I still suspect there might be some school closures or opening delays, so check in the morning to see if your kid is lucky enough to get out of Thursday's math test. 

We're still looking at it warming up just enough Thursday afternoon to lose the ice but still have an absolutely miserable day, typical of November. 

Temperatures will barely make it to 40 in the warmer spots. Overcast, light rain and drizzle will be absolutely, ahem, lovely in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 mph or so, especially in the Champlain Valley, will add to the chill. 

After this fun little episode, the weather looks like it will go quiet again.  We won't have gorgeous weather. In fact, it will be a little colder than normal through the weekend. 

There are signs that next week might be a little warmer. Not spectacularly so, but enough to feel a little better than Thursday will. 

Sneaky Peak At October Global Temperatures Hint At Another Big Record Breaker

Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service offered
a grim sneak peak at Earth's October climate data.

Most of the official data for global temperatures and other facts and figures for October aren't out yet, but early indications are October was pretty much as scary as September. 

September was the world's hottest on record, but what really had climatologists hitting the panic button was the huge margin by which September's global temperature exceeded the previous record. 

The first major data to come out on a previous month's global climate is from the EU's Copernicus Climate  Change Service.  It shows that the world  just exceeded its previous record for the hottest October by 0.4 degrees Celsius. 

That 0.4 Celsius is roughly a degree Fahrenheit, which doesn't sound like much, but it is a whoppingly large margin when measuring the world as a whole. 

 Preliminary data suggests that 19 percent of the Earth's surface had its hottest October on record.  That's an extraordinarily large area for an all time record. The only month experts say is comparable is September. As was the margin by which October broke the previous record for hottest.

The preliminary October data makes it virtually assured that 2023 will be Earth's hottest year in 125,000 years, according to a team of EU scientists. 

Such hot global air really does a number on storms, making them stronger, more dangerous and more unpredictable. The world seems to be in a sort of mini-lull in big storms over the past couple weeks, with the exception of Europe's Storm Ciaran in October.

But I expect with the combined heat of climate change and El Nino, this is going to be a really destructive winter from intense storms around the world. 

We're still awaiting more data from NOAA, NASA and other agencies to assess this October's global temperature. But scientists say that data, due in a week or so, will be similar to the Copernicus findings. 

I'll keep you posted when the new data comes out!

 

Vermont's First Winter Weather Advisory Of Season As Thursday Morning Looks Gross

A winter weather advisory is up for Vermont Thursday due
to expected snow and mixed precipitation, especially
during the morning commute 

 It doesn't take much snow or ice to turn the roads awful in Vermont. That's especially true early in the season when we're not used to it. And some people haven't gotten their snow tires yet. 

So it is Thursday, when we will be under a winter weather advisory in the Green Mountain State for snow and some sleet and freezing rain. 

This won't be a huge storm, but the timing is lousy.  Snow should move in before dawn and continue into the morning commute hours. (The snow might start a little later in the Northeast Kingdom).

During that commute. there's a good chance the snow will mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington notes this morning there's some disagreement in the computer models about how much of this will be sleet and freezing rain. Some suggest it will be mostly a snow to rain transition, especially in the Champlain Valley, so there wouldn't be too much freezing rain there. 

Other models lean toward more mixed precipitation statewide, and those models at this point seem to be making more sense to most meteorologists out there. To be on the safe side, expect at least some ice after a quick burst of snow early tomorrow morning. 

The bottom line seems to indicate an inch or less of snow, followed by perhaps a tenth of an inch of ice. Some places could get as much as nearly a quarter inch of ice, other places will get only a trace.  

And so, expect a lot of icy patches at least on the roads early Thursday.  This will be an especially dangerous morning as a lot of motorists will be lulled into a false sense of security.  In many areas, ground temperatures are warm, so many main roads might be largely just wet or a little slushy. 

But bridges and overpasses will freeze. People will be cruising along on wet pavement at top speed, only to arrive on an icy overpass and lose control. 

Keep in mind some schools might close or have delayed openings, so check on that before you leave with the kiddos in the morning. 

The schmutz will change to a cold, light rain, first in the Champlain Valley then spreading eastward through the rest of Vermont during the afternoon. The evening commute will be a lot safer than the morning. But it will be an ugly, miserable day for sure. 

From an overall climate perspective, this type of storm isn't at all unusual for this time of year. It happens a lot in early to mid November, but the first messy storm of the season always still comes as a little bit of a shock. 

The trend will be toward colder than normal temperatures through the weekend, but very little snow or rain after tomorrow.