Climate Change Footprint Is Everywhere, As I'm Learning In Scotland

A stormy late afternoon Monday in Edinburgh, Scotland.
Just like in many parts of the world, including back home
in Vermont, storms are getting more extreme in
Scotland due to climate change. 

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - As any good tourist would do, I'm trying to learn as much as I can about the city.  

Given my interest in weather and climate, that includes information on how climate change is affecting Scotland. 

Turns out climate change is affecting this area in similar ways to Vermont. Just as in the Green Mountain State, climate change is making Edinburgh warmer and wetter.  

Edinburgh is not a warm place.  It's almost as far north as Anchorage, Alaska. It's as far north as north-central Quebec.  

But it's not frigid here. The waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean keep things moderate and tolerable in Scotland, though. 

Daytime highs in the winter tend to be in the low 40s around Edinburgh and summertime highs are in the mid-60s . Extremes in Scotland are not as wild as they are in most of the United States, including Vermont. 

The coldest temperature on record here is 4 degrees (Fahrenheit). The hottest-ever reading hit pretty recently, 88 degrees on July 25, 2019. That being one sign of climate change right there.

By contrast, Burlington, Vermont has been as cold as 30 below and as hot as 101 degrees, so the range is much greater than in Scotland. 

Any sort of change in the climate anywhere is disconcerting and potentially destructive. That's of course true in Scotland. 

With climate change, summers in Scotland are expected to become drier overall, but with more intense storms thrown in.  That means a higher chance of drought, and also a higher chance of flash floods. That   scenario might sound familiar to us Vermonters, who in recent years dealt with summer droughts, and disastrous July and August flooding. 

Autumns are getting especially risky in Scotland, with flooding increasing at that time of year. Just this October, Storm Babet caused some of the worst flooding on record in much of Scotland. All seasons in Scotland are expected to be warmer than they are now. 

Climate change is on the minds of politicians and policy makers here in Scotland. 

The City of Edinburgh Council has a pretty detailed plan on their web site on dealing with the consequences of climate change.  They're most worried about flooding from storms and from sea level rise. 

Edinburgh is of course a coastal city, meaning it's prone to the effects of sea level rise. The estimates are sea levels at the Edinburgh harbor should rise by about six inches by 2050, That doesn't sound like much, but even a slight sea level change can add immensely to storm surge damage and waves.

Scotland as a whole has a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2045. I have noticed a large number of EVs in Edinburgh. They make sense here. There's usually need to go any long distances. The streets are narrow and winding, so you don't want a large car here.  Since it's a compact city, it's easy to walk or bike to wherever you're going.

Also, Scotland has a robust public transit system, which is great if you want to reduce carbon emissions. Edinburgh is crawling with buses, and I always see plenty of passengers on them. The train network is extensive and very easy to use. 

We took a day trip from Edinburgh to New Berwick on the coast about 20 miles to the northeast Sunday. The train to and from there was efficient, clean and convenient.  Wish we had something like that in the states! 

Both Vermont and Scotland, along with local and regional governments around the world do seem to be  taking action against climate change, and girding themselves against the effects from it.  It seems like the top leaders of the world, and especially the wealthy billionaire class who made their money on fossil fuels and associated industries that are holding us back from solving the climate crisis. 

 

  

Monday Afternoon Update: Snow Totals Near Predicting, Except Lots Of Rain In Lower Valleys

This is the forecast for last night's storm issued Sunday
morning........

It turns out the forecast map issued Sunday morning for the storm that affected Vermont yesterday, last night and this morning was pretty accurately.   

The only major discrepancy was the total lack of snow in lower valleys. Some snow was expected everywhere, but places like the Champlain Valley got pretty much nothing.

There was a report of a foot of snow in the Northeast Kingdom, and several reports in that neck of the woods in the 8 to 11 inch range. 

The big winner seems to be Montreal, which got 13 inches of heavy, wet snow. That seriously disrupted the city! 

Power outages from this storm in Vermont peaked at a little above 12,000 homes and businesses at around 10 a.m. today. That's bad, but still only about a third of the amount we suffered in the nasty November 27 wet snowstorm. 

It does seem that snowstorms in Vermont have been trending wetter and slushier than in the past, which contributes greatly to an increase in power failures. Dry powdery snow typical of winters past does not cause many electrical issues. 

And here's a map of how totals actually worked out.
The forecast was pretty damn close. Click on 
both maps to make them bigger and easier to see.

Power outages were down to about 6,800 as of 3 p.m today. 

There was a LOT of moisture with this storm. It was a wet one for sure. 

Totals for rain and melted snow across much of Vermont amounted to an inch or a little more. I've seen reports as high as 1.57 inches in Johnson and 1.25 inches in Waterbury.  

We're definitely off to a wet start for December. 

If you're sick of dealing with wet snow, rain and clouds, the weather where I am in Edinburgh, Scotland is really bad today, even if the vacation continues to be awesome. 

It was windy and rainy here all day, with tourists and locals alike struggling with umbrellas and such as winds reached up to 40 mph.  

The forecast for both Edinburgh and Vermont is better for tomorrow. It'll be cloudy, calm and 40 degrees in Edinburgh.  Vermont will be colder with a few snow showers in the Green Mountain State - no big deal. 

However, temperatures are falling below freezing late this afternoon and evening, so any water on the roads will freeze. It might be dicey on some of the roads tonight and Tuesday. 

Vermont is in for a spell of winter weather Tuesday through Thursday, with highs not getting out of the 20s most places. It's December, it happens! 

Signs still point toward a possible warm up and rain next weekend in Vermont. So if you got snow today, enjoy it while you can. 

Vermont Storm Not Quite As Bad As Could Have Been, Still Messy

Judging from this screen shot from a WCAX-TV web
cam in Burlington, this was decidedly a rainy not
snowy storm in the immediate Champlain Valley.....

 It seems like lower elevations were mostly spared the worst of the latest storm in Vermont. 

Mid and higher elevations are struggling with wet snow and scattered power outages, but it does not appear to be as bad as last time. 

What saved the day is the fact that an expected band of heavy precipitation didn't really materialize. That band would have changed a mixture of rain and snow in the valleys to all snow.  

The snow statewide would have accumulated rapidly, causing a cascade of fallen branches and power lines and a real mess on the road.

There was a fair amount of rain and snow with this storm, but it was steady as she goes all of Sunday afternoon and night, and that minimized the effects. Many warmer valleys stayed almost all rain. 

As go 4 a.m., it looks like Burlington managed at most a slushy coating of new snow but had a fairly decent 0.61 inches of rain.

There are power outages out there from the wet, heavy snow in mid and high elevations. The outages zoomed up from about 1,500 at around 2 a.m. to around 5,600 as of 4:30 a.m. Orange, Lamoille and Washington counties seem to be the most affected. The number of outages continued to creep up to 7,200 by 6 a.m. 

Still, this isn't as bad as the 34,000 homes and businesses without power after the November 27 surprise wet snow event. 

Snowfall reports are spotty this early in the morning.  Snowfall seems limited mostly to places above 1,000 feet. Even places away from Lake Champlain, like Jericho and Underhill, and along the Lamoille Valley floor in Johnson, received little to no snow.

It looks like some areas a little higher in elevations got quite a bit. Some top amounts include 8.7 inches in Greensboro and 7.0 inches in Eden, Lunenburg and Norwich. It looks like the Montreal metro region received about nine inches of new snow.  

.....but another WCAX-TV web cam in Newport,
Vermont indicated a winter wonderland. 

Bottom line: If you are in the Champlain Valley and other warmer valley floors, your Monday morning commute is looking fine. 

Just wet roads and light rain to greet the drive in.

If you're up higher, you're going to need some extra time to negotiate slushy, icy, snowy roads this morning. 

The outlook in Vermont is calmer this week..  Rain and snow showers will continue to day, but won't amount to all that much.

 Snow showers and subfreezing temperatures tonight will probably make roads slick by Tuesday morning.  Tuesday through Friday look chilly before a warming trend starts. 

Some of the summits and ski slopes could see an additional two to five inches of snow between now and Tuesday afternoon

All in all the ski areas are off to a great start this season with plenty of snow. There is some potential bad news for winter enthusiasts toward next Saturday or Sunday.  At this point, that next storm is forecast to move by solidly to our west, which would give pretty much everyone in Vermont a rain and thaw.

It's still nearly a week away so that could change. Stay tuned!

UK STORMINESS

A hint of a rainbow near islands in the North Sea Sunday off
of North Berwick, Scotland. Gusty light showers swept the
coast.  Areas higher up and much
further to the west had more snow. 

Snow continued to pester parts of the UK on Sunday.  Where I'm at in Edinburgh, Scotland, some mixed rain and snow showers developed Sunday evening, but didn't accumulate.  

Elsewhere, it certainly did pile up. In Cumbria, a section of northwest England, more than 2,500 homes and businesses were without electricity after more than 8 to 10 inches of snow fell.  People had to abandon cars on highways as snow rapidly piled up

Officials in parts of northern England, Wales and Scotland were warning of "ice rink Monday" as rain and snow froze on highways. 

Today, I'll see the first truly stormy day in Edinburgh since I got here last Thursday. 

They're expecting steady rains with wind gusts as high as 39 mph during the day.  So we're going to the National Museum of Scotland since it's an indoor venue. 

Snow Trouble Both Sides Of The Atlantic

Latest snow forecast from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington. Mid and high elevations can
expect perhaps six inches wet snow. Be alert, as
these totals might change substantially in the actual storm.

 EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND -  At my temporary perch in this Scottish city, we haven't gotten any snow so far in my stay. The hills around town yes, but not in the city center.  

But I see there's a snowy mess on both sides of the pond. Swaths of the UK, and elsewhere in Europe, have gotten some disruptive snows.

Meanwhile, it still looks like disruptive snows are in the cards for Vermont and surround areas. Let's take Vermont first.

Like the wet, heavy snowstorm back on November 27 that caused a mess and power outages, the one that's coming today and tonight in the Green Mountain State will easily surprise folks one way or another. 

Temperatures, like last time, will be marginal, very close to the freezing mark. That means, as  mentioned yesterday, if it ends up being a degree or two warmer than expected, it'll be mostly rain. If it's a degree or two cooler than what's in the forecast now, then the wet snow will be much more widespread.

Expect surprises.

The worst of the storm will run from this afternoon to early Monday morning.  Before we get there, freezing drizzle and freezing fog this morning near the Canadian border will cause some spotty ice and travel trouble, especially on bridges and overpasses. 

The heavier precipitation will move in this afternoon. It'll come down heavily at times tonight. The best chances of accumulating snow will be during the heavier bouts of precipitation overnight. That heavy stuff tends to cool the air enough so that if you're above freezing and raining, you'll likely switch to snow.

Once again, the higher you go the more snow you'll get. A winter storm warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and high elevations of northeast New York, where six inches or more of wet slop is in the cards. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, a winter weather advisory is up for areas outside the immediate Champlain Valley and so far not including the state's southernmost counties. In these areas two to seven inches of sloppy wet snow is forecast, but there could be some surprises with higher totals if temperatures dip just a degree or two downward more than expected.

The immediate Champlain Valley can expect one or two inches, but again, be wary of any surprises that could boost totals overnight. 

As you've noticed, I keep mentioning heavy, wet snow. That means power failures are likely. That's especially true in  mid and high elevations where the snow should accumulate the most.

I can't emphasize enough the predicted snow amounts are not cast in stone.  This is a tricky storm.  My gut is sort of pushing me to expect a little more snow that's currently in the forecast, but it could really go either way.  Either a huge dump of wet snow, something in the middle, or perhaps, not as big a deal.

I'd get ready for a wet snowy mess with difficult travel early Monday and the risk of power outages. Get the LED candles and charge your devices by this evening to be on the safe side.

Whatever comes down will be quite a bit. Rain and melted snow will amount to 0.75 inches to 1.25 inches most areas, with some spots seeing higher amounts. That makes it a pretty substantial storm. 

Much lighter wet snow and rain will keep going Monday in most areas, but accumulations will be lighter and many areas will be above freezing. So things should improve during the day. 

Of course, it will get colder Monday night, so a combination of water freezing on roads and light snow showers will make the roads annoying again overnight and Tuesday morning. 

BRITAIN/EUROPEAN SNOW

Vermont isn't the only place that's dealing with heavy, wet snow. In some places on this side of the pond, there's plenty of it.

Here in Scotland, Edinburgh on the northeast coast hasn't gotten any snow, but we might get some today. The Met Office, the British equivalent of the National Weather Service has Edinburgh and most of eastern Scotland under a "yellow warning" for some snow and us. 

A yellow warning is the equivalent of a winter weather advisory, and not quite as dire as the equivalent of a winter storm warning.   

Snow is visible in the hills near Edinburgh, Scotland. 

Snow is already affected other areas of the UK. The Glasgow, Scotland airport had to suspend flights Saturday morning due to a burst of heavy snow.  The Midlands, Yorkshire and large parts of Wales are snowy, with roads and railways icy and slow.

Jackknifed trucks (I've learned to call them lorries here) blocked a major highway in Cumbria.  

Elsewhere in Europe, heavy snow shut down parts of Germany. Munich had no bus or train service Saturday after 16 inches of heavy, wet snow fell there.

Intense cold and heavy snow are also causing problems. Traffic was at a standstill around Prague in the Czech Republic. Austria and Switzerland are on the alert for avalanches. 

In both Vermont and western and central Europe, longer range forecasts call for somewhat milder conditions in about a week. 

Chilly, Dry November In Vermont, But December Starting Warmer, Wetter

November was somewhat chilly and dry in Vermont with
plenty of showery or snow showery days with limited
sun, as this photo taken in St. Albans, Vermont
on November 19 hints at. Still this year is likely
to be among the warmest on record. 

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - I'm still here enjoying his gorgeous Scottish city, but also still keeping an eye on the weather back home in Vermont. 

Here in Edinburgh, it's quite cold and bright, unusual for this area. Temperatures never made it above freezing here yesterday, and the sky was sunny all (short) day.  

Hills outside of town are snow-covered, and some cars in downtown Edinburgh had snow on them yesterday. 

Normally daytime temperatures here in Edinburgh are in the low 40s.  Overcast skies are almost always a sure bet this time of year.  There's always a risk of seeing rain showers.  .

Which is what Burlington was like yesterday. I guess Vermont we swapped places with Scotland, in terms of weather. 

Looking back at the Vermont November, that month was also very much like early winter in Edinburgh. Video of the November weather moodiness is at the bottom of this post.  

November was a rare cool month in what has been a warm Vermont year. In most places around the Green Mountain State, it was about two degrees cooler than the "new" warmer climate change-driven average. November temperatures were close to average, or even a little above average, had this month happened half a century or so ago.

Still, in Burlington, November had its greatest departure below normal of any month this year - 2.1 degrees under the average of the years 1990 to 2020.

No days were super cold, though. By the end of November, it can often get into the single digits above or even below zero. But it never got below 18 degrees in Burlington during the month. Everyone else, except the coldest valleys also stayed in the teens or warmer all month.

We never got that warm during November in Vermont, either. The warmest day for most of us was in the low 60s. That's a far cry from the all time November highs we saw a year ago.  

November was on the dry side, too, with most of us running somewhere in the half inch or so shy of normal, give or take depending your location. Again, it was really nothing that out of the ordinary.

In fact, in a year that has brought Vermont some wild extremes, and some pretty big disaster, November, with one big exception was a pretty boring month in terms of weather.  I guess we needed the break.

That exception came on November 27, when unexpectedly heavy, wet snow cut power to around 34,000 homes and businesses. That was yet another big disaster of Vermont electric utilities that have suffered several such widespread outages in recent years. The same storm caused lots of travel trouble and highway crashes. 

Despite the relative chill of November, we are on track to have one of our warmest years on record, at least in Burlington,

If December turns out to be exactly average (remember, it's the new average that is warmer than in past decades) 2023 will end up being the second or third warmest year on record. Unless December is exceptionally cold, we'll easily have a top ten warmest year.

Remarkably, if this year ends up in the top 10 warmest list of years, it will be the fourth year in a row to make that rare list. Especially considering the Burlington records go back all the way to the 1880s. I wonder if there's something to this climate change thing everybody talks about?

As you can tell, December is off to a relatively warm start (In Vermont, not Edinburgh, obviously). As always, I don't generally trust long range forecast, but for the record, those longer range forecasts call for near to perhaps slightly warmer than average temperatures through mid-month. We shall see. 

Despite the relative chill here in Vermont, the world as a whole will probably have its warmest November on record. That would continue the trend we've seen for at least the past five months, as El Nino and climate change really turbo-charge global temperatures to new and dangerous heights. 

Video: The different cloudy moods of November in Vermont. Taken at various times in November, 2023 in northwestern Vermont. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Early Alert: More Vermont Heavy, Wet Snow, Power Outages Possible Sunday Night

An initial snow forecast for upcoming storm Sunday night
Take this with a grain of salt. Updated forecasts could
greatly increase or decrease expected amounts.

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - I'm glad I'm overseas and not dealing with wet, dreary weather in Vermont and the potential for yet another wet, heavy snowstorm over the Green Mountain State.

Forecasters are watching a storm for later Sunday and Sunday night that could bring another round of heavy, wet snow and power outages to at least parts of Vermont. 

The trouble is, as of Saturday morning, the weather models are still all over the place with this upcoming storm.  Some give us mostly rain, others mostly snow, others split the difference.

That lack of agreement is unusual given that the storm is only 36 or so hours away.  The one area of some agreement among the models is that precipitation, whether it be rain, snow or a combination, will probably be moderate to heavy. 

On top of that, much like the surprise, heavy wet snowstorm on November 27, we do know that temperatures will be marginal. In other words. if it's only a degree or two warmer than expected, then the storm would have more rain than snow, so it wouldn't be that big a deal.

If it's a degree or two colder than forecast, then the wet, heavy snow will be more widespread than expected, which means more widespread power outages.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has so far held off on issuing any winter weather watches, because the forecast is so extremely iffy. 

Initial forecasts issued by the NWS early Saturday seem to call for three to seven inches of wet snow across most of northern and central Vermont and high elevations of southern Vermont, with one to three inches in the warmer Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley.

Take that forecast with an enormous grain of salt, though. It's almost certain to change one way or another before we arrive at the storm. 

Since we've already had one big, unpleasant weather surprise recently, I'd get ready for another, just to be safe. That means charge your devices, have LED candles at the ready and be prepared for a terrible Monday morning commute. If you prepare and nothing happens no great loss, right?

So far at least, it seems the best chances of heavy, wet snow are along and east of the Green Mountains. But that could change, too. 

Before we get to the storm, expect rather overcast, somewhat mild and dreary conditions through Sunday afternoon. There's a chance of rain today, mainly north and patchy drizzle or even freezing drizzle overnight tonight. 

I'll try to provide updates best I can, though since I'm in Edinburgh, I might not be fully able to keep on top of it ,unfortunately. As is always the case, rely on the National Weather Service in South Burlington and the excellent television and radio meteorologists in the Green Mountain State for the best updates. 

Annual Climate Talks Hosted By Mideast Oil Kingdom Raises Questions

Is the UAE making big oil deals at a huge annual climate
conference of all things? 

 There's a big international annual meeting going on, this year called COP28, which is meant to negotiate the worldwide policy tangle associated with climate change.  And make tons of political speeches, mostly meant to burnish the reputations of those who attend. 

The thing that raises my eyebrows to the ceiling of the Scottish hotel I'm currently staying at is why an oil kingdom is hosting such a major climate event.

More on that in a minute, but first, let's take a step back and figure out what the big shot meeting is about in the first place. The Washington Post explains it better than I can:

"More than 100 world leaders are scheduled to address the gathering Friday and Saturday. The speakers include French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Brazilian President Luis Ignacio Lula da Sila, according to a list released by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

After the speeches have concluded, the negotiations will begin in earnest. Delegates from nearly 200 countries are expected to haggle over whether to phase out fossil fuels, the primary driver of global warming and whether to provide more money to help developing nations cope with the ravages of climate change."

The whole shindig is taking place at in the United Arab Emirate, not exactly the world's biggest hotbed of EV, protests to stop fossil fuel and climate activism. 

Heading up the talks at this big gathering is Sultan Al Jaber, who is chairman of UAE's renewable energy office. That sounds nice enough. But he's also chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. 

The annual COP conferences are rotated every year among five global regions, and this year it's Asia-Pacific.  UAE is in that area, but so are lots of other nations. The UAE made an unopposed bid to host this year's big affair, so that's where it's happening. 

UAE hopes to make itself look good by getting everybody agree to a better, more extensive "loss and damage" agreement - that's what the Washington Post referred to up above to aid for developing nations swamped by disasters caused by or made worse by climate change. 

So in a perfect world, UAE makes itself look better by creating an environment that helps nations that really need it. I can't argue with that goal.

But I'm a cynic. So are a lot of other people out there.  I'm not sure everyone is trusting UAE here. 

The Centre for Climate Reporting and the BBC obtained documents showing that the UAE planned to use its role in hosting the climate talks to strike oil and gas deals with 15 nations.  Yes, that does seem a bit unseemly, doesn't it?

According to the BBC:

"(The documents) included proposed 'talking points such as one for China which says Adnoc, the UAE's state oil company is 'willing to jointly evaluate international LNG (liquefied nature gas) opportunities in Mozambique, Canada and Australia.

The documents suggest telling a Columbian minister that Adnoc 'stands ready' to support Columbia to develop its fossil fuel resources."

The BBC has lots and lots of details in its report in conjunction with the Centre for Climate Reporting. I won't get into it all here, but it's pretty fascinating to wade through. 

As the Centre for Climate Reporting (CCR) writes:

"Prof Michael Jacobs of Sheffield University, who is an expert on climate politics, said the COP28 president's actions look "breathtakingly hypocritical."

Ya THINK?

Anyway, Jacobs goes on: 

"The UAE at the moment is the custodian of the United Nations process aimed at reducing global emissions. And yet, in the very same meetings where it's apparently trying to pursue that goal, it's actually trying to do side deals that will increase global emissions,"

As for the UAE, their response to the CCR was: 

"....a COP28 spokesperson said: 'Dr. Sultan Al Jaber holds a number of positions alongside his role as COP2 President-Designate. That is public knowledge. Private meetings are private, and we do not comment on them."

CCR said former COP presidents and others associated with the event said GOP presidents should never make their nation's commercial interests part of the climate talks. 

"As a COP president you should not represent any national or commercial interest, it is your job to leas the world," said Manuel Pulsar-Vidal, the president of the COP20 summit in Lima in 2014.

'You can't represent the interests of a country or a business because it will undermine confidence and trust in the presidency," he said. 

The annual COP climate conferences have done some real good, of course. 

The third of these meetings, GOP3 in Kyoto, 1997, the first time nations formally agreed to reduce carbon emissions COP21 led to the Paris agreement, in which nations agreed to try limiting the increase in global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and shoot for no more than 1.5 degrees.

That 1.5 degrees is looking less and less realistic, but at least it was a goal that might have helped the process of reducing emissions.

However, I'm not optimistic about this iteration.  Some annual COP meetings fall short. This one might be that way, too. 

I just hope it doesn't do the opposite and ultimately make climate work.