Why Were Recent Vermont Storm Forecasts So Bad?

How it began: Forecast from the National Weather Service
issued Sunday afternoon for the storm that hit
Sunday night and continued into Monday. 

 We've had three pretty substantial winter storms here in Vermont since November 27. One of the storms, on December 4, was pretty well forecast. 

The other two storms, one on November 27 the other Sunday and yesterday, were not so well predicted.

The storm on November 27 was surprisingly ferocious. What was expected to be mostly a rain storm turned out to be a wet, sloppy snowstorm that cut power to as many as 34,000 Vermonters.

The most recent storm was supposed to be something of a monster. We were variously warned to expect Flooding, widespread heavy, wet snow, travel trouble, widespread power outages and strong winds.

Even just 12 hours before the storm hit, it was supposed to be bad. As we all know, it was just.... meh.

Are local meteorologists suddenly falling down on the job? Have all the computer forecasting models gone haywire?

Nope and nope.

Winter storms in New England are notoriously hard to predict. I don't think I've ever seen a Vermont snowstorm that played out precisely as forecast. More often than not, the storm predictions are quite accurate, but you're going to get a few surprises somewhere no matter what. 

However, two of the recent storm forecasts fell short. That was mostly due to very slight forecast inaccuracies that had big real-life effects

WHAT WENT WRONG?

In all three recent storms, temperatures hovered very close to the freezing mark. It's normally no big deal if you predict a temperature of say, 34 degrees and it ends up being 32 degrees. Close enough. When there's a lot of precipitation around, that ever so slight error in temperature can mean surprise snow, or an unforeseen wet washout. 

Both relatively poorly forecast storms were mostly a case of just slight errors in precipitation intensity. Those very minor mistakes had super noticeable effects.

In the November 27 case, the storm was stronger than forecast, which increased the intensity of the precipitation.  Heavier precipitation tends to cool the atmosphere more than lighter sprinkles and inconsequential snow.

Since temperatures were just a little above freezing at the start of the November 27 storm the extra oomph of moisture dropped temperatures just a degree or two below what had been expected. The result was that very unpleasant surprise snowstorm and power outages.

The storm Sunday and Monday had the opposite problem. The storm - and its associated precipitation - turned out to be less intense than expected.

It was still a very wet storm, especially for this time of year. Almost all of Vermont had at least an inch of rain and melted snow, and some places had two inches.

Still, it was less precipitation than expected, especially at the stage of the storm when rain was to change to snow.

There was lots of moisture available to the storm, so it did look like we were in for a lot of snow. What was to be an intense storm moving northward through eastern New England turned out be only of moderate strength. v

How it ended: Map of actual snow totals from 
storm that ending Monday afternoon. As you can
see, it was noticeably less than expected.

That means there was less lift in the air than anticipated, so the precipitation once temperatures fell to near the freezing mark wasn't so intense. 

 In the valleys, the temperature stayed up by a degree or so because of the less intense precipitation. So what was to have been a wet, heavy snow was just a yucky slush bomb.

For instance, in Burlington, the temperature stayed at 33 or 34 degrees for the entire snow event, so the National Weather Service measured just 1.9 inches of new snow. 

Even where it was a bit colder, at slightly higher elevations, an expected band of intense snow never materialized.  So most everybody got just four to seven inches of snow, with just a couple spots seeing eight or nine inches.  That was well short of the 12 to 18 inches that was expected.

Forecasters do get bonus points for accurately figuring out where the deepest snow would accumulate. It just didn't pile up as much as planned.

At least in this second wrong forecast, the effects of the storm weren't as bad as feared, so any frustration with an off prediction was tempered by relief things turned out OK.

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington also has a range of forecasts with each storm.  They offer what amounts to a 10 percent chance of storm over-performing, and a 10 percent chance of it under-producing.

This latest storm was just slightly larger than the 10 percent chance of a whiff - meaning lighter snow.

Of course, there is one success story in here. The December 4 storm played out pretty much as meteorologists expected.  Sure, there was a little more rain instead of snow in the valleys, but the forecast was fairly close. 

For the latest storm, there were still nearly 2,500 homes and businesses in Vermont without power as of 8 a.m. today. Even though the storm was less intense than forecast, it still had some real impacts,

As far as this week goes, the only weather trouble I see is the potential for briefly heavy snow showers this evening. That could make some slick spots on the roads, but accumulations should be under an inch for almost everybody, except maybe some spots in the northern Green Mountains.

Those of you who are frustrated by some winter storm forecasts that don't turn out as planned: Remember this: Forecasts as little as six or 12 hours before the storm will give you a general idea of what will happen. 

The storm will almost always turn out to be a little more intense, or a little less dramatic than the forecast indicates. If meteorologist say you will see four to eight inches of new snow, that's probably what will happen, but be prepared for a little more or a little less, just in case. 

Smaller Than Expected Vermont Storm Nearing End, Power Outages Still An Issue, But Calmer Days Ahead

Sort of a dreamy view of my snowy back yard in St.
Albans, Vermont following today's less than 
extreme snowstorm. 

As of Monday evening, the snow was getting ready to call it quits in northern Vermont and had already pretty much ended in central and southern Vermont. 

That one remaining band of snow could drop another inch of snow on some places north of Route 2 this evening with maybe a couple inches in favored mountain spot. 

THE STORM STATS

The storm mercifully was not nearly as bad as forecasts on Sunday suggested. The storm didn't strengthen as much as expected.

 There was plenty of moisture in the atmosphere for heavy snow, but the relative weakness of the storm meant it couldn't take advantage of all that wetness in the air. 

Nobody got the 18 inches that was hyped for the mountains. Sorry, winter sports fans!

So, we ended up with wet, sticky moderate snowfall. I see a couple reports of 8 or 9 inches of new snow in a couple spots. But northern Vermont mostly reported four to six inches, at least in areas away from Lake Champlain.

One aspect of the storm forecasters got right is the fact that much less snow fell along the shore of Lake Champlain than just a little bit inland. 

I live at a relatively high elevation - 650 or so feet above sea level on the eastern end of St. Albans well away from the lake, and I got a little over five inches. Right along the edge of St. Albans Bay, at a bit over 100 feet above sea level, there was maybe a little over an inch of new snow. 

At the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, only 1.9 inches of snow accumulated as of 5 p.m. That's a lot less than the four to eight inches that some forecasts said. 

This rain and snowfall was a very wet storm, though, by December standards. Most of Vermont had at least an inch of rain and melted snow, with many places definitely exceeding 1.5 inches. There was a bullseye of heavy precipitation in northwestern Vermont. Fletcher reported 2.75 inches of rain and melted snow. St. Albans was close behind with 2.5 inches. 

Burlington received 1.44 inches of precipitation with this storm, bringing the month's to 2.56 inches. Even if not one more snowflake or raindrop lands on Burlington for the rest of December,  the month will still end up just a tiny bit wetter than average. And we're not even halfway through the month yet! 

Since it was an awfully wet snow, power outages were still a problem, despite the relatively modest accumulations. Outages peaked at nearly 8,000 Vermont home and businesses at mid-afternoon Monday. They have been declining since, and we were down to about 4,100 outages as of 5:30 p.m. 

The next hazard with this so-so storm is the return of icy roads in spots tonight. They will mostly wet at sunset, but temperatures will inevitably fall below freezing this evening. That guarantees icy patches, especially on bridges, overpasses, untreated surfaces and back roads. Things won't be nearly as nasty on the roads as this morning, but you'll still need to take care. 

GOING FORWARD

The good news is the rest of the week is looking pretty mellow. It'll be sort of warm tomorrow with highs for most of us in the 30s. A gusty southwest wind will add a bit of a chill to the air, however.

A cold front Tuesday night and early Wednesday will bring some of us a dusting to an inch of snow, with maybe a couple inches in the mountains. No biggie. It'll be seasonable cold Wednesday and Thursday. (Highs 25-35, lows in the teens to around 20).

The overall weather pattern for basically the whole nation has turned warm, and we'll share in that tropical heat. OK, maybe not tropical, but 30s to low 40s for the end of the week and next weekend isn't too shabby for a time of year that can get well below zero.

The next chance of any real precipitation would come Sunday night and Monday.  Current computer models have a storm coming out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and heading almost due north towards us  Sunday night.

I'm not really buying that scenario and I know for sure the forecast will change quite a bit before we get to that point. So don't worry about it. 

Vermont Storm Messy But Could Have Been Much Worse; Power Outages Still Increasing

National Weather Service forecast map for additional
snow accumulation that is expected to take place after
7 a.m. today. The map is NOT a storm total as it
does not include snow that accumulated before 7 a.m. today.

UPDATE 1 PM MONDAY

As expected, it kept snowing in much of Vermont and accumulations are now quite a bit closer to original estimates.

It won't be as big a storm as we thought this time yesterday, but it's still pretty good.

Snow accumulations here in St. Albans went from 1.8 inches ago 6:30 a.m. to a total of 5 inches as of 12:30 p.m. and it was still snowing lightly.

I see quite a few five to six inch totals cropping up in much of northern Vermont.

I'm sure there will be more complete info later this afternoon.

Power outages have gone up, too. The number was still rising as of 1:30 p.m. and was now up to 7,300 homes and businesses affected .

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 I won't say Vermont dodged a bullet this Monday morning, because we didn't. But the bullet is fortunately not quite as powerful as feared.  

The wet snow has materialized, and it's coming down at least moderately at times in much of Vermont before dawn this Monday morning. A winter storm warning remains in effect for good reason

However, it looks like the storm is slightly weaker and taking a track slightly to the east of anticipated, so the effects of this snow might not be super terrible. And not as much will accumulate as I hyped earlier this weekend.

I started to notice the trend toward the weaker/eastern version of the storm with last evening's update, and it looks like that scenario materialized.

Of course, we're still stuck with a terrible morning commute and power outages. The wet snow will continue pretty much until noon or so, and longer than that in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

A number of schools in Vermont are closed or have a delayed opening, so check your local listings.

With somewhat less intense snow in the forecast, power outages won't be quite as widespread as feared. But they're out there, for sure. The outages were just starting to ramp up as of 6 a.m. About Vermont 1,200 homes and businesses were without power at that hour. That's bad, I guess, but not terrible compared to some storms I've seen recently. 

I expect the number of outages to rise this morning as more slushy snow accumulates. 

Despite the fact the storm is somewhat less robust than expected, a decent streak of moderate snow was moving in as of 6 a.m.  That'll hit the power lines to an extent. This heavier snow, relatively speaking, will still hit during this morning's rush hour, as previously advertised. So you'll need to take it slow out there. It'll be an unpleasant drive to work if you're doing that. 

Only 1.8 inches of new snow as of 6:15 a.m. in St. Albans,
Vermont, but it was still snowing. Very wet and sticky; you
can see how it's weighing down the pine trees in the background.

Judging from traffic cams, major highways were slushy as of 6 a.m.  With snow intensities picking up a little, chances are they'll get a little worse, despite the fine efforts of Vermont state plow drivers. 

At least there's less of a chance roads will be blocked by crashes, and fallen trees and power lines. All that is still a risk this morning, but not as big as I was imagining yesterday.

Another benefit of the storm being a little weaker than forecast is winds won't be quite as strong as meteorologists were telling us about yesterday.  

Also, coldish air won't flood in quite as strongly as previously thought. In the warmer valleys remaining light snow might even briefly mix with or change to a cold rain.

So, bottom line: Snow totals: Including what has already fallen will probably amount to three to six inches in the Champlain Valley. A bit less than that will accumulate right next to Lake Champlain. A bit more than the six inches might pile up in the Green Mountain foothills in eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties.

The central and northern Green Mountains should still make out pretty well with this. Some higher towns could end up with a foot or more, but most will get between six and 12 inches. 

Southeastern Vermont valleys will get very little, but higher elevations of the southern Green Mountains, and all but the lowest elevations in Rutland and Bennington counties can expect three to six inches. 

Except for the northern Green Mountains, the snow should be mostly over by mid-afternoon, though a few snow showers will continue in spots into tonight with just a little extra accumulation. Not a big deal.

So, we've gone from an expected candidate for the worst snowstorm of the winter to just a mid-sized mess.  I'll have updates today as warranted

Storms have been extremely challenging to forecast since late November. There's lots of different reasons why, but the main reason is this: Forecasting computer models have gotten good, but they're far from perfect. They don't handle storms that have temperatures near the freezing point well at all. 

With this storm, the National Weather Service in South Burlington indicated in their forecast discussion that the models did not do a good job of figuring out how the severe weather in the South associated with the storm would affect it once it moved north toward New England. 

 

Sunday Evening Vermont Storm Update: The Mess Is Near, And Some Slight Changes

The very latest snow accumulation forecast map from the
National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 
They've trimmed back snow totals slightly compared to
this morning's forecast, but this storm is still going to
have a lot of impacts.

 The fairly gusty south winds from this morning have turned to a light breeze from the north late this afternoon, which marks the beginning of our long-awaited nasty storm. 

Those north winds are making temperatures start to fall, but it won't get cold enough for snow until midnight or a little after in the Champlain Valley and in the wee hours of the morning further east and south. 

As was inevitable, there have been some subtle changes in the forecast. That will continue through the duration of the storm.

 There probably will be a few surprises one way or another somewhere in Vermont. Anything you read for the rest of this post isn't cast in stone. All winter storms throw curve balls at us. 

The trend in the forecast late this afternoon has fortunately been to lower the snow totals just a bit compared to this morning's forecast. I don't know if that's part of a welcome trend that would lower the impacts of the storm, or just a minor last minute adjustment based on the latest computer models.

Though slightly less snow would mean slightly less snow loading on trees and power lines, that shouldn't matter too much. I still expect quite a few power outages on Monday pretty much statewide. 

Unlike in the last two storms, lower elevations might have the biggest problems with power outages on Monday. Not as much snow will accumulate in the valleys compared to the mountains. But the valley snow will be particularly wet and slushy - that wet cement I keep talking about. 

I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's take it a step at a time, chronologically, as I did this morning.

RAINFALL

So far, this afternoon's  rain hasn't been too intense. As of 5 p.m., rainfall in Vermont seems to be around a quarter inch so far, give or take. The rain will probably pick up in intensity this evening, but the flood threat has really gotten low.  

At least here in Vermont. Eastern and southern New England are in the cross hairs for some possibly significant flooding. Vermont's problem remains snow.

Some towns in Vermont could get an inch of rain before things switch over to snow. Since the switch-over will be later in southeastern Vermont and that part of the state is going to be in deeper moisture from the storm, rainfall totals will be higher there, so as a precaution a flood watch remains in effect for southern Vermont. 

SNOWFALL

The central and northern Green Mountains continue to look like they will be in the sweet spot for snow. Those areas are in for a foot, maybe a foot and a half of snow. Which will be great for the ski areas, as snow lost in the thawing today will mostly be replaced.  

Dark and rainy in downtown St. Albans, Vermont Sunday
afternoon. By dawn tomorrow, this same scene will'
look very, very snowy. 

Snow accumulations in the valleys are harder to predict, because it depends upon on how "warm" it stays through this, and how long the heaviest snow rates last.

When the snow comes down really hard, it tends to cool the air a bit so that it sticks better. When the snow is lighter, temperatures could bump up to just above freezing, limiting further accumulations. 

Unfortunately. the heaviest snow looks like it will come between 2 and 10 a.m. Monday. 

That would give snow plenty of time to accumulate ahead of Monday morning's commute, and continue to pile up quickly when people are trying to drive to work.  

Power outages will likely be rapidly ramping up during this time, too, as heavy, wet snow accumulates fast. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that predicting how much snow will pile up is especially tricky in the Champlain Valley. They expect a sharp gradient between the immediate lakeshore and the foothills of the Green Mountains to the east.

The immediate shore of Lake Champlain might only get two to four inches of slush. 

Along and just east of Route 7, at this time the expectation is four to eight inches. Once you get into eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties, we're talking close to a foot.

Overall, the biggest adjustment to snowfall forecasts is in the Champlain Valley. Forecasts broadly call for five to nine inches in places like Burlington and St. Albans. That's three or four inches less than what the forecast called for this morning. 

That said, those cities could still get socked with more snow than that, or they could be pleasantly surprised with less. Flip your coins, boys and girls, it could go either way. 

Just as in the last two storms, temperatures will be marginal, within a degree or two either side of the freezing mark. The last two storms favored snow in mid and high elevations. This time, the valleys are in play. But if the temperature winds up a couple degrees warmer than expected, the snowfall forecast is a bust, and only a few inches will fall.

If it's a bit cooler than forecast, the snow will be deeper. But it would be marginally less wet and sloppy, which would help the power line issues.

It's still looking like southern Vermont won't be as bad with the snow with this system, but higher elevations can expect a good six inches of snow with power failure risks there, too. The lower Connecticut River valley floor looks pretty safe from any major snow accumulations. 

Bottom line: Expect a real mess pretty much statewide Monday morning. My advice from this morning still holds: If you can stay home Monday morning, then stay home. Call in sick if you have to. If your boss whines, blame me. 

Power up your devices this evening, and drag out those LED candles in case you'll need them Monday morning. Unfortunately, this is the type of storm that could lead to some people being without electricity for a couple or even a few days. 

The good news in that department is it won't get super frigid after the storm passes Monday evening. High temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week should be more or less in the 30s, with lows in the upper teens and 20s.

Yeah, that's chilly. But at least it won't be below zero, so your pipes have a shot at not freezing and bursting if you lose power for a few days.  After all, it could easily get below zero this time of year. But in this instance, it won't.

After this storm goes by, the weather will get mercifully quiet for a few days at least. A weak storm and cold front might dust us with an inch or two of snow Tuesday night or Wednesday, but that's no big deal.

Temperatures are also forecast to stay at or above normal well into mid-month and possibly beyond, so that's nice. 

By the way, this all could be worse. Around this time in 1952, a similar storm struck Vermont, but it was more intense than this one.

Temperatures started out in the 50s with quite a lot of rain on December 11, 1952. Then it got sharply colder, but temperatures bottomed out at around 32 degrees late on December 11 and during the day December 12. 

The end result in Burlington was 2.75 inches of rain and melted snow and 13.4 inches of heavy, wet snow.  Two feet of wet snow buried St. Albans. Rain and melted snow amounted to 3.25 inches in St. Albans, more than normally falls in the entire month of December.   

I doubt this episode will be as bad as 1952. I'm always looking on the bright side, right?

. 

Tornado Outbreak Kills At Least Six, Widespread Destruction In And Around Tennessee

Tornado damage in Tennessee from News Channel 5

The same storm system that is menacing the eastern United States including Vermont with heavy rain, snow and wind unleashed deadly tornadoes in the Mid-South Saturday. 

The tornadoes killed at least six people and injured dozens. 

The twisters caused widespread destruction, with the worst of it being in Clarksville, Tennessee and in the northern reaches of Nashville. Saturday's tornado came just three years after an even worse tornado trashed much of the northern side of the city. 

There were at least 25 tornado reports Saturday, and an additional three so far today in an area near where Alabama, Georgia and Florida meet. 

This storm is forecast to possibly spin off more tornadoes and severe weather from Florida to Virginia this afternoon and evening.  As of 1 p.m. today, areas near Raleigh, North Carolina were under a tornado warning. 

Video from Tennessee Saturday shows one tornado creating power flashes as it moved across the landscape, probably created from electrical transformers it was destroying. Then the tornado sets off a large explosion and fireball, which were then ingested into the swirling mess.

Tornadoes often occur in the South during the winter. In fact, today is the second anniversary of a much more serious tornado outbreak, which killed 88 people, and all but destroyed the city of Mayfield, Kentucky. 

An El Nino is ongoing. During winters with an El Nino, tornadoes, severe weather and flooding become more likely across the South.

Which means Saturday's tornadoes might be the opening salvo in what could be a long, terrible winter from Texas to the Carolinas. 

Sunday Morning Vermont Storm Forecast: Snow/Power Outage Worries Grow; Flood Threat Diminishes

The ever-present, ever-handy latest National Weather 
Service snowfall prediction map. This is the latest
update issued this morning, and expected totals
have ticked upwards from previous forecast maps.

 The outlook for our big storm, set to begin hitting Vermont later today, keeps getting colder and colder, meaning this will be a bigger, badder snowstorm than anybody would have imagined a few days ago.

A winter storm warning is now up for all of Vermont except the lower Connecticut River Valley floor from about White River Junction south. In that area, a lower-dose winter weather advisory has been hoisted instead. 

Even though this will be a somewhat colder scenario than previous forecast, the snow, when it arrives, will be wet and heavy.  

Ground zero for power outages in the last two storms were mid and higher elevations away from Lake Champlain in central and northern Vermont.  This time, lots of power outages are likely pretty much everywhere, but the Champlain Valley might end up being the hardest hit. 

The Champlain Valley will be a little warmer than the hill towns, so the snow there will be especially wet and heavy. Worse - and this goes for nearly the entire state - snowfall rates will be at times one to two inches per hour from the predawn hours through at least noon. 

When wet snow piles up that fast, it tends to plaster itself to trees and power lines much more efficiently that if weren't coming down so hard. 

 Additionally, gusty north to northwest winds will load the snow on the north side of trees and less on the south side. That makes the trees unbalanced, making them more likely to topple onto power lines. 

This is a really dynamic storm. The first signs of that fact became apparent yesterday and last night. The storm produced a deadly tornado outbreak in and around Tennessee. I'll get into those tornadoes in a separate post today. 

Being such a powerful storm heading north along the New England coast, it will produce LOTS of precipitation.  Rain and melted snow will amount to 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with locally higher amounts. That's a big total for a December storm. 

Storm clouds gather over St. Albans, Vermont Sunday
morning ahead of what is expected to be a very disruptive
snowstorm. Rain will change to heavy, wet snow overnight.

On the bright side, this snowier scenario has diminished the flood risk.  The chances of flooding are now mostly limited to areas from Route 4 south, and any flooding should be pretty minor. Central and eastern New England are now under the biggest threats from flooding

It's really amazing how much the storm and its predicted effects changed in the last week. It was first thought it would be almost exclusively a rain storm and flood. Now, the heavy snow has taken center stage. 

Days ago, the storm was expected to pass to well to our west, maybe near Toronto. Now, it's expected to head north along the New England coast, probably passing right over Boston. 

HOW IT PLAYS OUT

It's warm out there this morning, and scattered showers are starting to roam around Vermont. It's in the 40s to near 50.  Many of us will get into the 50s later this morning before the steadier, heavier rain arrives by early afternoon. 

Temperatures will sink back through the 40s this afternoon, but there's no risk of a changeover to snow before evening. If you want to get out and pick up groceries and supplies and such before the storm, the only hazards you'll have to deal with is hydroplaning on highways in the rain. There might be some standing water and such here and there, too.

Temperatures will continue to slowly sink this evening. Rain will change to snow first on the mountain tops, then reach valley floors starting around midnight to 2 a.m. in western Vermont. That's when the trouble really begins. 

The heavy, wet snow will continue to spread, probably hitting all of Vermont except the lower Connecticut River Valley before daybreak.  

For those who have to drive to work Monday morning, this is a nightmare scenario, since the heaviest snow will probably hit during drive time.  It'll snow too hard for state snow plows to keep up.  Heavy wet snow is more slippery, and harder to plow than the more powdery stuff we're used to.

Back roads will also be a mess of snow, fallen trees and branches, and maybe snapped power lines. Many of those back roads will be impassable at times. I think some sections of Interstates and other major roads in Vermont might also close due to car crashes, fallen trees and power lines.

If at all possible, don't drive anywhere Monday, especially before noon. There will be nothing to get to anyway. I'm sure many schools will close, and many events will be canceled or postponed.

The snow should gradually become lighter and eventually more scattered as we head into late day Monday and Monday night. Roads should still be a mess, and power outages will be ongoing. Winds gusting to 35 mph will ensure snow loaded trees and branches will continue to snap. 

Yeah, this storm is a real pain in the neck

SNOW TOTALS

If this storm was a "normal" winter event for Vermont with our prized powdery snow, almost everybody would be getting at least a foot of snow, with several places closing in on two feet, easily.

But since this is mostly a miserable "wet cement" type snow, totals won't be quite that high, but still pretty impressive.

All this is subject to change, of course, but pretty much everybody north and west of a line from Bennington to St. Johnsbury should see at least six inches of snow. 

The big bonus zones - areas that could easily see a foot of snow, include the northern and eastern Champlain Valley, most of the northern third of Vermont and the Green Mountains from roughly Killington north.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 18 inches or more at summits like Mount Mansfield or Jay Peak. 

The "escape zone" from this mess is the lower Connecticut Valley floor, which will see totals ranging from a slushy coating to three or four inches. 

Remember, this is "heart attack" snow, so shovel it away slowly and methodically, and take breaks. Or get some healthy teenager to help you with it. 

I'm sure the forecast for this storm will continue to be tweaked, so stay tuned for updates going forward. The National Weather Service and Vermont's excellent television and radio meteorologists will always be there, staying on top of this and providing updates.

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: As You'd Expect, Some Forecast Changes

The latest snow forecast from the National Weather 
Service office in South Burlington, issued Saturday afternoon.
Still looking at a solid thump of mostly wet snow in
northern and central Vermont. 

 We have some changes to the forecast with this long-advertised storm that's expected to hit Vermont starting tomorrow and worsening Monday. 

The track of the storm on computer forecasting models keeps nudging east a little bit. That means in general less rain and more wet snow for the Green Mountain State. 

The flood watch that had been in effect for central and northern Vermont has been dropped. Rain will probably change to snow sooner than previous forecasts, limiting the amount of rain and thawing. 

The rain Sunday and the first half of Sunday night will cause sharp rises along rivers in the northern half of Vermont, but the water won't get as high as previously thought, so any significant flooding is now not really on the table. 

The flood watch continues for roughly the southeastern half of Vermont, as enough rain seems likely to cause a flood risk.

The story with this upcoming storm over the past couple of days has been gradually shifting from a warm floody (new word invented by me) to more of a winter storm. 

So, with that in mind, the National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon upgraded the wine storm watch to a winter storm warning for all but southern and southeastern Vermont. 

The winter storm warning is in effect for later Sunday night through early Monday evening. Most places in the warning area should expect four to ten inches of snow, but some spots in the central and northern Green Mountains could get as much as a foot and a half of snow. 

The snow is still expected to be wet and heavy, but there's a twist to this. The two previous storms on November 27 and December 4 cut power to mostly mid and high elevations of Vermont. The Champlain Valley pretty much escaped the power outage trouble in those instances. 

It's not looking like that will be the case this time. Power outages are a risk pretty much everywhere in Vermont with this one. But, as the National Weather Service office in South Burlington pointed out this afternoon, the wettest snow seems likely in the Champlain Valley. You know, that dreadful slush that's the consistency of wet cement? Yeah, that's what that part of Vermont seems in for. 

Little bit of a calm before the storm. A red sunset late
Saturday afternoon as seen from St. Albans, Vermont. 

The Champlain Valley is the most densely populated region of Vermont. So particularly wet snow hitting that neck of the woods would bring lots of power failures. 

The snow will probably be not quite as wet and cement-like in mid and high elevations, so the collapses trees and snapped power lines might not be quite as big a problem up in those areas. 

It's not like higher spots are getting off scot-free. It's just that lower elevations might be the target zone.

The Champlain Valley is also probably the hardest to forecast with this storm, too. The NWS South Burlington forecast discussion explains it pretty well:

"Snowfall near the warmer Lake Champlain waters will be a slushy couple of inches, while the BTV (Burlington) airport 4 to 8 inches is likely, to 6 to 10 inches in Williston/Essex to 10 to 16 inches Underhill/Bolton base."

 The Monday morning commute still looks like it will be a disaster. That's especially true in the Champlain Valley, at least if the current forecast is accurate.  As I said this morning, if you can work from home Monday, do that. Schools will probably be closed for the day, so you probably won't have to ferry your kids through the mess on the roads. 

I've outlined what current forecasts have in store for us. But you gotta remember, there's still plenty of room for forecast changes between now and when this stupid thing actually hits. So, you'll need to be on your toes and be ready for changes to all these predictions. This thing could still be not as bad as forecast, or worse than forecast. 

That's the cross we bear as Vermonters in the winter. The weather sucks, and surprises us. So we have to be ready for surprises.

By the way, this big storm isn't just a Vermont problem. Today, the storm produced tornadoes near the Tennessee/Kentucky border northwest of Nashville, causing some serious damage. Flood watches remain in effect along the East Coast from northeastern Virginia all the way to northern Maine. 

On the bright side, for most of the nation, including Vermont, the weather should be much quieter for awhile after this storm passes.