Second Day Of Intense Tornadoes Take Toll On Oklahoma, Surrounding States

 The continuing siege of tornadoes in the nation's middle claimed three lives in Oklahoma last night, but this huge bout of severe weather is showing signs of slowing down a little. 

Tornado aftermath in Sulfur, Oklahoma today. Photo
from KayDubEll on Reddit 

At least for now.

It can't get any busier. As of today, there's 78 reports of tornadoes Friday, mostly in Nebraska and Iowa. On Saturday, there were 40 tornado reports from northern Texas to Missouri, with the bulk of them in Oklahoma. 

Tornado activity was somewhat at a minimum in central and eastern Oklahoma during the day Saturday, as atmospheric conditions didn't quite come together enough to set off the expected tornado outbreak. However, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes raked parts of Texas, southwestern Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri all day Saturday. 

Mostly after dark, the atmosphere over Oklahoma set itself up for dangerous, big tornadoes, and unfortunately delivered.

Nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous because people are usually sleeping or otherwise paying less attention to weather warnings. Plus, many people wait to see a visual clue a tornado is coming, and that's usually hard to do at night. 

The three deaths in Oklahoma are horrific, of course,  but that death toll would have been much higher without the incessant warnings that issued last evening and overnight as twisters roamed the state.

Downtown Sulfur, Oklahoma was destroyed by a tornado. As first responders swarmed into town to help, they were told to take cover as another tornado lurked nearby. Later, at least 20 injuries were reported in Sulfur while rescuers continued to sift through the wreckage looking for other survivors. 

Drone video from Live Storms Media showed most buildings in downtown Sulfur at least damaged, with several completely collapsed. An apartment complex was torn apart, and numerous homes were roofless or otherwise trashed. 

Another tornado was reported in Norman, which is right in the Oklahoma City metro area. Ardmore,  Oklahoma also reported heavy tornado damage. 

Meanwhile, the cleanup started in earnest across parts of Nebraska and Iowa from Friday's intense tornadoes.  Locals marveled that nobody died in those twisters, which is a testament to the advance warning people received from the National Weather Service and local television stations. 

The outbreak was so intense and widespread that the National Weather Service office in Omaha, Nebraska had to issue a total of 42 tornado warnings. 

Nationwide, the National Weather Service has issued 250 tornado warnings are nearly 500 severe thunderstorm warnings since Friday, the Washington Post reports. 

Several interviews I saw included survivors who said they were in their basements or storm shelters when the tornadoes hit because the warnings gave them enough time to take shelter. 

In the coming week, severe weather and tornadoes will not be nearly as widespread as they were over the weekend, but will still be scattered around the South over the next several days. 

This afternoon, forecasters were watching an area where Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas meet for a risk of tornadoes.

On Tuesday, the same areas of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa that were hit so hard on Friday are under a tornado threat again.  But that threat at this point doesn't appear as horrible as it was on Friday.

During the upcoming week, there is a threat of severe weather in the southern Plains and Southeast, but forecasters are unsure how extensive that threat will become. 

Northern Vermont Gets Wake Up Call Announcing Start Of Thunderstorm Season

Daylight before dawn. Screen grab of video as lightning
lit everything up in St. Albans, Vermont around
5:30 a.m today. 

 It's about that time of year when we start seeing thunderstorms, and northern Vermont got a wake up call regarding that early this Sunday morning. 

A nice big cluster of thunderstorms move from southern Ontario and Quebec crossed the international border into New York and Vermont early this morning at dawn.  The storms were by no means severe.

But they did produce impressively frequent lightning, downpours and small hail.  

Here in St. Albans, there was lightning and thunder for more than two hours beginning at roughly 5 a.m.  The strongest storm here dumped a pretty good amount of pea sized hail mixed with a downpour at around at around 5:45 a.m. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington issued a couple of special weather statements alerting people to the possibility of hail up to the size of dimes. 

Those of you who saw lightning this morning might have noticed the thunder sounded a little weird at times. 

The storms were elevated above a temperature inversion. That means there was a layer of the atmosphere that warmed a little with height, instead of cooling like you'd normally see. The inversion formed sort of a lid over us. That lid bounced around the sound waves from the thunder, giving them this deep rolling, at times almost crackling sound. 

Screen grab from lightningmaps.org shows plenty
of stakes across northern Vermont, southern Quebec
and northeastern New York around 6 a.m. today.

In any event, the batch of storms moved south and gradually weakened as the morning went on.

After a bit of a break from the rain and lightning, latter this morning we have more convective showers and maybe another couple of rumbles of thunder in the plan for this afternoon. The sun's heating will help create some instability with will work with a cold front coming in from the north. 

The result will be hit and miss showers this afternoon. Especially in the northern half of Vermont

Today's thunder was just a taste. Going forward through May and into the summer, you'll see forecasts of thunderstorms pop up more and more frequently. Eventually, we'll have a few bouts with potentially severe thunderstorms. Nothing like that is coming in the immediate future, though. 

In other words, let's get ready to rumble. 

UPCOMING WEEK

The work week will start cooler than forecasts issued a few days ago indicated. Cool high pressure from Canada will keep highs Monday in the upper 50s north of Route 2 to the low and mid 60s down to Route 4, and upper 60s in low elevations far south. 

That's close to normal, or a smidge below normal north for this time of year.

Another weather disturbance in a series brings more cool temperatures and showers Tuesday.  Wednesday and Thursday are looking somewhat drier and warmer before more showers arrive late in the week.  

After that, it's beginning to look like we might get into one those typical but vaguely annoying persistent May weather patterns featuring relatively cool temperatures, frequent clouds and an ever-present risk of light showers. 

Vermont Spring Gardens Persevere Through Early Season Run Of Bad Luck

I gotta ask my fellow gardeners out there: Has this spring so far been especially challenging for you?

Challenging spring in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens
so far, but things are still getting more and more
beautiful as the season progresses.       

I know, I know, the growing season has just barely hinted at starting. We've got an incredibly long way to go. 

This is whiny but the past few weeks have been a little more onerous out there than usual. That April 4-5 snowstorm wrecked two trees on my property that I liked. It could have been worse as other, more important trees I thought might suffer managed to get through that. 

Unlike so many people here in St. Albans, my property suffered minimal wind damage in those horrible  twin wind storms back in January.  Phew, dodged a bullet right?

I shouldn't have been so smug. On April 12, gusty winds took down two large trees, which fell on and shattered into pieces on my largest perennial garden. Not a lot of actual damage, but a huge cleanup. Thank goodness my husband - always looking for a project - sawed up an immense amount of those branches for me. 

Then we just had that freeze. The garden was blooming to early. Thanks to another climate change early spring. Which meant the late April cold snap we just had, which wasn't the least bit odd on a historical basis, caused some tense moments. 

And some nonconsequential but disheartening damage. Some of the daffodils flopped over onto the ground, their stems frozen then thawed into a mush that couldn't support the blooms on top. The little magnolia tree won't bloom this year. The lilac in front of the house has tons of flower buds, but will they bloom now that they've been frozen twice? Stay tune. 

Has anyone noticed the mosquitoes? Or is it just at my place? They first went on the attack here during the Great American eclipse on April 8.  That is incredibly early to see mosquitoes. 

Now there's swarms of them. I've always dealt with lots of black flies this time of year. Mosquitoes are an occasional problem all spring and summer. But where did these swarms come from?  For the first time since I've had this house, way more than a decade, we can't open the sliding glass doors in the living room on warm afternoons. The mosquitoes swarm right in.

I wonder if the warm winter - it never did get below zero - allowed mosquitoes to survive the winter and thrive?

All this is by no means the end of gardening, at least around my house. The daffodils are beautiful, even if a few of them are leaning awkwardly. Everything's greening up nicely, and unless disaster really strikes, it still looks like I have a full spring, summer and early autumn of perennials to enjoy. Hopefully, the pollinators buzzing around out there like this spread, too.

Climate change and invasive species have certainly made gardening more challenging than it used to be in Vermont and pretty much everywhere else.  

What have you experienced in your garden?  Is the weather causing unexpected problems for you? Or have things actually gotten better? Inquiring minds want to know. 

Big Tornado Outbreak Underway: Nebraska/Iowa Hit Hard; Oklahoma Under Threat Today

 A destructive tornado outbreak is underway in the middle of the nation, and it could turn out to be among the more significant ones in the past few decades. 

Tornado near Lincoln, Nebraska Friday.
image from X @LNKScanner

Nebraska and Iowa took the brunt of Friday's tornadoes. Dozens of homes and businesses in the two states were destroyed. Amazing, so far I haven't seen reports of any deaths. It helped greatly that these storms were very well warned. 

The worst affected area Friday seems to be on a straight line from just north of Lincoln, Nebraska to the western suburbs of Omaha into western Iowa above Omaha. Dramatic video captured a large tornado crossing Interstate 80 near Lincoln.

A manufacturing plant in Lincoln with 70 people inside collapsed in the tornado but only three people suffered non-life threatening injuries. 

The western Omaha suburbs of Elkhorn and Bennington were hit hard, with at least 50 homes destroyed. But again, casualties were light. Only two injuries were reported.

That so far no deaths and only a smattering of injuries have been reported is testimony to the great tornado warnings issued ahead of the storms. The National Weather Service declared a tornado emergency for the western and northern Omaha metro region as it became apparent a tornado would approach that area.

This "hair on fire" type warning surely prompted lots of people to hide in basements and tornado shelters, and that prevented deaths. 

A tornado emergency was also declared in southwestern Iowa, where a huge tornado destroyed a large chunk of Minden. Aerial views show entire neighborhoods there flattened.

It's possible a tornado was on the ground that entire distance from Lincoln into Iowa, But far more likely is the parent supercell dropped several twisters along that path. 

Typically, a tornadic supercell will produce a tornado that might travel several miles before dissipating. The supercell takes a brief breather, then drops another twister that goes several more miles. Rinse and repeat.

Yet another supercell seems to have produced some occasionally large, violent tornadoes east of Omaha well into Iowa.  Between those two lines, a tornado touched down at Eppley Field, which is Omaha's airport. Some buildings on the east end of the airport were damaged, but the storm didn't affect the main terminal.   

Later at night, tornadoes approached the Des Moines, Iowa area, with damage reported in the southern and eastern parts of the city and its suburbs. 

In all, there were about 100 reports of tornadoes Friday. Many of those reports are probably duplicates, with multiple people reporting the same, highly visible twisters. 

TORNADOES TODAY

If anything, today could be even worse in terms of tornadoes. 

A moderate risk - the second highest in a six-point scale of severe weather risk is up for central Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas and a part of northern Texas.

The Oklahoma City area, especially its suburbs of Moore and Newcastle, seem to be tornado bait for some reason and have been repeatedly hit by large, deadly tornadoes in recent decades. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says several large, powerful and long-tracked tornadoes are likely today. 

Flooding is also likely in many of the same areas that are under the greatest tornado threat. 

A Record-Breaking Hurricane Season? One Forecast Group Says So

A University of Pennsylvania team is forecast a 
record busy hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean
this year. It's the second major prediction that calls
for a potentially chaotic and dangerous season.

A forecasting group from the University of Pennsylvania said they expect a record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season with perhaps 33 named storms.  

If you think I've already written about a hurricane forecast this year, you're right. A  Colorado State University forecast issued in early April which said 23 tropical storms or hurricanes were in the cards for the Atlantic Ocean this summer and autumn. 

The newer University of Pennsylvania hurricane forecast that just came out is in line with, but definitely more ominous than that Colorado State University prediction. 

The forecast from the University of Pennsylvania team, led by climatologist Michael Mann, actually has a forecast of between 27 and 39 named storms, but 33 is their more pinpointed forecast. If there's 33 named storms, that would exceed the current record for the most number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean in a single season. That was a total of 30 such storms in 2020.

An average season produces about 14 Atlantic storms, about half of which become hurricanes. Seven of the past eight years have been busier than normal hurricane seasons. Warm ocean waters - probably with climate change contributing - have helped force these storms. 

THE REASONING

One big reason for Mann & Co's bullish 2024 hurricane forecast is the already hot water in the Atlantic Ocean in the region where most hurricane develop. Per the Washington Post: 

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a marine heat wave, or sea surface temperature well above normal, to continue in the tropical Atlantic through at least September. That has forecasters concerned about an active hurricane season because warmer ocean waters typically increase the intensity of storms."

Another reason why the team at the University of Pennsylvania think this year is going to be a blockbuster for hurricanes is that El Nino is rapidly falling apart. El Nino is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean.  That warming contributes to strong upper level winds in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean.

Those strong upper level winds tear apart thunderstorms that are the building blocks for tropical storms and hurricanes. Rip apart those thunderstorms and you rip apart the chances they'll grow into a hurricane  

Long range forecasts for the summer and fall call for the opposite of El Nino, which is La Nina. That consisted of coolish water in the eastern Pacific and calmer upper level winds over the Atlantic. That would more likely allow tropical storms and hurricanes to form. 

If La Nina fails to develop, the number of expected hurricanes in the Atlantic would decrease this year, Mann says. But only a little. That hot water out there would still contribute to storms. 

TRACK RECORD

Here's something that might make people who don't like hurricanes more nervous. The University of Pennsylvania hurricane predictions in most recent years have more often than not predicted fewer such storms than what actually developed. 

Last year, the University of Pennsylvania team predicted 16 tropical storms and hurricanes. We ended up with 20. Luckily the majority of those missed populated land areas.

In that blockbuster year of 2020, University of Pennsylvania predicted 20 storms, ten less than the Atlantic actually produced.

The last time University of Pennsylvania sort of predicted too many storms was in 2016. They anticipated 19 storms and we got 15. Even so, 2016 was within their margin of error. They actually said there would be 19 storms that year, plus or minus four. 

WHERE THEY GO

What really matters, of course, is where hurricanes go after they form. If they have an opportunity to head north well off the coast and hit cold water in the North Atlantic, then no problem. They just go up there and die.

If a strong Bermuda High is north of a hurricane and that high pressure system extends its influence into the United States, chances are the hurricane would head into the Gulf of Mexico. At that point, anything from Florida to Texas could take a hit, or the storm could just divert to Mexico instead. It depends on the steering patterns over the Gulf. 

If there's a dip in the jet stream in the central United States, that dip could steer a hurricane into the East Coast. If that dip in the jet stream is right along or just off the East Coast, chances are that hurricane would be steered safely out to sea. It all depends on the weather pattern when the hurricane is roaming around out there. 

Of course, the more hurricanes there are, the greater the chance that some will hit land. Which is why the University of Pennsylvania forecast is so worrying. 

Already the Atlantic Ocean is beginning and to throw hints of what might be to come. The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday they were monitoring a swirling disturbance in the east central Atlantic Ocean. 

It looked like a nascent tropical storm, though strong upper level winds were forecast to destroy the small storm before it could grow much.  That one was a fizzle, but soon enough, we'll start having tropical storms and hurricanes that could spell trouble. 

 

Back To Spring, And Spring Showers After This Morning's Vermont Freeze

 Temperatures at dawn in Vermont were a couple degrees warmer at dawn today than yesterday. 

Frosty leaves in the garden again this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. 

That's not saying much, since pretty much everybody in the Green Mountain State was in the 20s, with a few teens in the cold hollows.  

Still, the fact that it was a tiny bit "warmer" than dawn Thursday ist he first sign that spring is about to return after a couple days away. 

 The sky is clear again, and the air is still super dry so temperatures will rocket upward as the sun takes over. 

 It will be a good ten degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon, so it will be in the 50s. Possibly near 60 degrees. Nice, just a little cooler than average.

The dry air will give us another chilly night, with temperatures near or below freezing again by Saturday morning. But if you're worried about any additional garden freeze damage, relax, it won't be that bad.

DRY TO "HUMID"

The super dry air we've had the past couple of days is going to be a thing of the past by Sunday. Saturday will be a transition day, as we get warmer and clouds begin to creep in.  Nice day, though, with highs in the 60s. 

A warm front will come in Saturday night. That will spread a little rain in overnight into Sunday.  Bonus: No snow. There's actually a chance warmer valleys will not see any additional snow again until October or November. So there's that.

After Saturday, I guess you can put away the ChapStick for awhile. By Sunday afternoon, the air will actually have sort of a humid feel to it.  Which is a remarkable switch from what has been the desert dry air we are in now. 

It won't be oppressive, but if you're exerting yourself on Sunday  afternoon, you'll sort of notice it. If sun breaks through, we could get temperatures in the low 70s.Weak weather disturbances and the vaguely humid air will combine to produce some scattered showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder, especially north, Sunday.  Kind of like summer. 

I guess if we're going to transition away from basically winter in the desert like we've had the past couple of days, we might as well go all in. 

WARM, BUT NOT THAT WARM

Longer range forecasts had been bullish on a warm close to April and equally warm start to May, but they've backed off on that. But at least it will be, well, normal.  Next week looks unsettled, with frequent chances of showers. It won't rain all the time, but there will often be that risk of raindrops.

We will have to watch for a back door cold front that could make northern Vermont a bit chillier Monday and eastern Vermont cool on Tuesday. That cold front makes forecasting temperatures a little trickier than first thought. 

It depends on where this cold front sets up and how fast it moves. There's a chance this front could hold down temperatures a little in northern Vermont on Monday, and then perhaps east of the Green Mountains Tuesday. 

But nobody is that sure. At least if parts of Vermont get in the cooler air behind the front, it won't be that bad. Certainly not another frost and freeze.  

If garden plants were damaged in this week's harsh freeze, it will be interesting to see how well they recover. They weren't that far advanced, and most of the stuff that was blooming are pretty hardy, so I think we escaped a garden nightmare from our freeze.

Quick Vermont Freeze Update: Just As Cold Tonight As Last Night

Satellite view late this afternoon clues us in for tonight. 
Clear skies overhead, clear skies to our west coming
in means another frigid night, about as cold as it was 
last night, with lows in the teens in cold 
hollows and 20s for the rest of us. 

 Just a quick Thursday evening update on our hard freeze weather here in Vermont, since we're half way through it.   

First, final figures are in for who in the Green Mountain State got coldest this morning. 

East Have, Vermont takes the honors as the state's coldest spot, bottoming out at 12 degrees above zero. Gallup Mills saw 16 degrees, South Lincoln was 17 and Lunenburg was 18.

Tonight's lows statewide will be very similar to last night's.

The overall air mass has warmed up a tad, but conditions will be absolutely perfect overnight for temperatures to reach their coldest possible. 

Chilly high pressure will be pretty much directly overhead, ensuring calm winds and clear skies.

It actually felt nice and fairly warm in the sun today, as breezes were light and the sun angle was high. Dry air heats up more readily the humid air, so we got well into the 40s to near 50 as expected.

Dry air also cools off fast once the sun goes down. You'll see temperatures really, really crash after sunset this evening, getting down below freezing within hours. After midnight, with the air a little warmer aloft than it was last night, will slow the rate at which temperatures fall.

Still, it'll get into the teens in the cold hollows and 20s for the rest of us.  Those lows will be pretty much the same as they were this morning. 

The dry air and warming air will mean temperatures will get nice again Friday, going up into the 50s to near 60. After another cool night Friday night, we will return to spring.