Acting FEMA Director Who Didn't Know We Had Hurricane Season Leaves To Celebrate Hurricane Season End

David Richardson, the hands-off acting head
of FEMA is leaving the position at the end
of this month. But FEMA is still in 
crisis big time, thanks to the 
Trump administration. 

FEMA's acting director David Richardson, who alleged didn't know the U.S. has a hurricane season, has decided to resign at the end of hurricane season, which hits on November 30. 

Per Washington Post

"Richardson, who spent about six months as the acting head of the nation's response agency, has kept a low profile and is known for often being inaccessible, including during the early hours of the flood disaster in Texas over the Fourth of July weekend. 

In recent months, five current agency employees said Richardson spent little time in daily operations meetings and shrank away from the role - one that typically demands the administrator be easily reachable. The staffers, like others interviewed of this story and previous coverage, spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of retaliation."

Other reports also give a damning view of Richardson's alleged leadership style.

Per CNN:

"Some officials describe his leadership as brash and unpredictable, with a penchant for shouting and swearing. On one occasion, he asked staff whether disaster funds cold be steered to Republican areas but not Democratic ones, a FEMA official who heard the comments firsthand said.

At times, Richardson prohibited staff from bringing cell phones and computers into meetings. He often kept his own phone out of sight and rarely used email, leaving senior FEMA leaders struggling to reach him and making even basic communication a constant challenge."

NEXT FOR FEMA

Richardson reflected the Trump administration's disdain for FEMA. As noted, he was pretty much AWOL for at least part of this summer's huge Texas flood disaster. 

Early in his tenure, he also appeared to state that he did not know the United States has a hurricane season. The fact he decided to call it quits at the end of hurricane season is rich. 

FEMA is obviously critical when it comes to disaster response in the United States, deploying responders in the immediate aftermath of a catastrophe to feed, house and literally save survivors. The agency also is supposed to help with long term recovery aid. 

The agency is getting more crucial as weather extremes and disasters increase in the face of climate change. 

Meanwhile, FEMA has long needed an overhaul, as individual victims, municipalities and states often report walls of bureaucracy when attempting to receive aid for rebuilding and adaptation after the immediate crisis is over. 

That might not be the focus, though. Trump during the beginning of his later term at first thought just getting rid of FEMA entirely was a boffo idea. That sort of morphed into keeping FEMA, but slashing staff and resources. And making states responsible for a much greater share of disaster response and recover. 

The trouble with that is most states don't have the money or resources to handle big disasters. So people whose homes are destroyed in a hurricane, flood or wildfire would more likely be out of luck and on their own. 

As it stands now, everybody is now waiting on a review council to come up with recommendations for FEMA. The council, commissioned by Trump and headed by Department of Homeland Security Kristi "ICE Barbie" Noem.

With Noem in charge, what could go wrong?  We'll let you know when the report by the review council is released. 

There's already signs of discord with this review panel. Most of the panel has reportedly concluded FEMA should become more powerful and autonomous, making FEMA a cabinet level agency,

But Noem wants to keep FEMA under the control of her Department of Homeland Security. She also wants to remove FEMA from its direct role in disaster relief, and turning it into more of a grant-making department, according to the Washington Post. 

 Already, FEMA is a mess. FEMA has lost a quarter of its employees. In August, a whole bunch of employees wrote a public letter warning their leadership was substandard and harming FEMA's mission to manage emergencies. 

Also, Noem still has a rule in which she must sign off on each expense over $100,000. Which slows down responses to emergencies.

Meanwhile, FEMA's current chief of staff, Karen Evans will step into Richardson's role. 

In a statement, the department said they appreciated Richardson for his "dedicated service and wish continued success in his return to the private sector." 

Or something like that.   

Meanwhile, as U.S. citizens try to recover from disasters that have hit this year, and brace for the inevitable new calamities, we all know the U.S. government no longer has our backs. 

 

Hurricane Melissa Had World Record Wind Speed, Could Be Part Of Terrifying Trend

A dramatic view from inside the eye of Hurricane 
Melissa near Jamaica. Photo was taken for a hurricane
hunter plane. One of those planes dropped an 
instrument that detected a 252 mph wind gust
within the storm. That gust was just verified
as the strongest on record detected in a hurricane.

 It looks like Hurricane Melissa achieved at least one world record for hurricanes. 

A weather measuring instrument called a dropsonde was tossed into the hurricane from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter airplane shortly before storm made landfall in Jamaica back on October 28. 

The dropsonde recorded a wind gust of 252 mph on its way down through the storm. 

The 252 mph gust was measured about 820 feet above the ocean. 

This beats the old record for highest wind recorded by a dropsonde in a tropical system. 

That previous world record for the highest gust was 248 mph from a dropsonde that descended through Typhoon Mega in the western Pacific Ocean back in 2010. 

CONFIRMING THE DATA

A dropsonde, is a device NOAA Hurricane Hunter airplane personnel drop into the maw of hurricanes. Dropsondes have a small parachute attached and they take  somewhere between two and four readings per second before splashing into the ocean. They usually throw a bunch of dropsondes into a hurricane pretty much all at once to get a holistic look under the hood of the storm. , 

While on its way down, dropsondes grab information on air pressure, temperatures, and wind, and relay that back to the hurricane hunter plane.

The hurricane hunters knew right away that the dropsonde recorded that 252 mph gusts. But NOAA and other scientists, as they always do, wanted to double check the data to make sure there wasn't something wrong with the dropsonde. 

According to a press release from U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) it took until this week to verify the information because NCAR scientists needed to verify the data to make sure there was no glitch with the dropsonde. 

As CBS reported, researchers went through the numbers using quality control software. They also confirmed the 252 mph gust was physically possible, given Hurricane Melissa's strength and structure.

The careful review was necessary because errors can happen with dropsonde data.  A dropsonde that fell through Hurricane Katrina in 2005. A dropsonde measurement in that storm when it was in the Gulf of Mexico recorded a gust higher than that seen in Melissa.

However, researchers found a lot of problems with that Katrina measurement so it was discarded. 

RECORD BIG MELISSA

At the time the 252 mph gust was measured while Hurricane Melissa was officially a storm with sustained winds of 185 mph.  It made landfall in Jamaica at that strength. Damage in Jamaica where winds were strongest looked like they were caused by an EF-4 tornado. 

The gusts might indicate that Hurricane Melissa might have been even a little stronger than that 185 mph at landfall. 

After each hurricane, meteorologists examine the data from the storms and publish a full, detailed analysis. Those analyses often update the strength of hurricanes that differ from original reports.  

Before this 252 mph gusts was verified, Hurricane Melissa was already a record breaker. When Melissa made landfall those 185 mph (as it stands now, anyway) sustained winds ties the record for strongest winds for an Atlantic Ocean hurricane making landfall.

Only two storms the Labor Day Hurricane in Florida back in 1935 and Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2019. 

The central air pressure in Hurricane Melissa reached 892 millibars. That's another way of measuring the strength of a hurricane. With that pressure, Melissa tied the record for the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane since that 1935 hurricane in Florida. 

 As the Washington Post tells us, Hurricane Melissa also set an informal record for the most eyewall lightning observed by satellites. Before landfall, the satellites detected 700 flashes per minute, or 11 per second. 

Most hurricanes don't generate much lightning. When there is lightning in a hurricane, it's a sign of an extremely intense hurricane, or one that is strengthening.  

SCARY STORM, SCARY TREND

Josh Morgerman, very likely the most prolific and expert hurricane chaser in the world, has been in the middle of 84 hurricanes and typhoons so far. He was in Jamaica for Melissa. 

He wrote: "Melissa's winds were absolutely ferocious - the most intense I've witnessed in 84 hurricanes. And the resultant damage was spectacular. This was a truly rare specimen."

Morgerman continued in his technical report on the hurricane, where he monitored the storm in a struck hotel building:

"At the height of the storm, the whiteout was 100% and the screaming sound was so hard that others in the hotel kitchen were putting their hands over their ears. This aside the explosive gustiness of the winds blasted the building, caused one's ear drums to pull painfully, so that the author was often holding or rubbing his own ears"

Morgerman said many trees that were somehow left standing were completely defoliated. In some cases the bark was ripped off.  Wood frame homes were completely flattened, concrete buildings partly collapsed and paint was blasted off some buildings and cars.

Gawd, that had to be absolutely terrifying. 

Just a reminder, though the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean doesn't seem to be increasing, the number of super powerful ones are increasing. And those top end storms seem to be getting stronger than ever. 

There's even talk of creating a Category 6 for hurricanes. Right now, the strength chart for hurricanes go from Category 1 to 5.

Climate change might well be making horrible experiences like what Jamaica went through ever more likely.  And inevitably, some of these will crash into the United States.

The records being set by Hurricane Melissa are for sure a cautionary tale.  

Vermont Drought Eased At Faster Pace Last Week; Northeast Overall Improved

Latest U.S. Drought Monitor map for Vermont, 
issued yesterday. Definitely some improvement.
Extreme drought now down to less intense
severe drought in Northeast Kingdom
Much of Vermont is out of drought,
mostly just "abnormally dry" --yellow
color. Much of the central and northern 
Champlain Valley is no longer in drought at all,

 Drought conditions improved quite a bit in Vermont over the past week, according to the latest weekly U.S. Drought Report, which was released Thursday. 

For the most part, the intensity of the drought took one step down for almost the entire state. 

The area of extreme drought that covered about 25 percent of the state in the Northeast Kingdom improved to severe drought. It's the first time since September 9 that no regions in the Green Mountain State were in extreme drought. 

Severe drought in central Vermont eased to just moderate drought.

 Most of western and far southern Vermont went from moderate drought to just "abnormally dry" which means it's still a little bit parched but  a full blown drought has disappeared. 

And, for the first time since August 12, at least a small part of Vermont is no longer even abnormally dry. 

Most of the central and northern Champlain Valley was abnormally dry last week, but this week, that same region is hunky-dory. Adequate ground water, normal stream flows.  Nothing to worry about in terms of dryness. 

The bottom line is we're still not out of the woods in Vermont, but we are in much better shape than we were a month ago. Keep those rain dances going, though. 

The drought in Vermont seems to have peaked in mid-October and has been improving ever since.  About 41 percent of the state was still in drought with this week's report. That's the lowest percentage since August 19. 

The improvement can easily be seen on Lake Champlain. On October 19, the lake reached its lowest level of the drought at 92.81 feet. People could walk to places like Law and Mosquito islands and keep their feet dry. 

The lake has risen to 94.5 feet as of Wednesday. That's just an inch or two below normal for the date. 

NORTHEAST IMPROVEMENT

Elsewhere in the Northeast, the drought generally improved. Especially across northern New England, and western and northern parts of New York.

New Hampshire this week had no areas in severe drought for the first time since September 2.  About 78 percent of the Granite State is still in drought this week, but that's the lowest percentage since August 12.  

Extreme drought in Maine is greatly reduced, but it's still lingering along a small area of the sea coast near Portland. 

Of all the states in the North Country, New York is doing the best. Only a third of the Empire State remains in drought. 

OUTLOOK

The improvement in Vermont drought condition will probably slow or even briefly stall over the next week as little rain or snow is expected. 

A cold front that had been expected to give us a shot at moderate rain or a mix today is now likely to only deposit very light amounts. Some of us won't see any rain at all.

But starting nest week, it appears the weather pattern might start getting active again.  Moderate rain looks like it might accompany a brief warmup next week. Even so, only a quarter to a half inch of rain is in the forecast for the next seven days. 

After that, things have a colder look heading into December. But that colder pattern looks active with frequent chances of precipitation.  Since it will be colder, a decent share of the precipitation might come down as snow.

Snow won't immediately help with the continued dryness. It would have to melt first, to put my Captain Obvious hat on for a moment.     

Winter sports enthusiasts don't want rain. But I think we're at the point where it's OK to bank the snow now, and let the spring sunshine months from now melt the snow and finish replenishing our water. 

 

Antarctic Glacier Yields Body Of Long-Missing Meteorologist

Dennis Bell, right, celebrating Christmas, 1958 in
Antarctica. The next month, he died when he
fell into a glacier crevasse. His body was not
recovered  until earlier this year. 

 Climate change might have had a had in bringing a closure to an Antarctic tragedy that occurred more than six decades ago.  

In 1959, Dennis Bell, a 25 year old meteorologist, fell to his death into a glacial crevasse in Antarctica. Early this year, a Polish team found Bell's remains at the end of a melting, receding glacier. 

Bell was part of a group that climbed onto Ecology Glacier on King George Island, Antarctica to do some field research. 

Gizmodo picks up the story:

"The group split into pairs, and Bell and surveyor Jeff Stokes set off before the others. During the ascent, Bell moved ahead of the sledge without his skis to encourage the tiring dogs and disappeared into a crevasse. Bell survived the fall, however, and Stokes threw a rope down to him to pull him back up. 

Bell, however, had tied the rope around his belt rather than around himself. When his body reached the top of the crevice, he got stuck, the belt broke, and this time he fell to his death."

Bell's body was to found until this January, when a Polish team found bones near their base. Eventually, more than 200 personal effects were found nearby, including radio equipment, a torch, ski pols, an inscribed Erguel wristwatch, a Swedish Mora knife and an ebonite pipe stem, The Guardian reported. 

The remains were eventually taken to London, where DNA tests confirmed the remains belonged to Bell. 

The following will seem a little crass, since this involves a tragic death. But, I'll say it anyway. I'm not sure if the discovery of Bell's remains last January was the result of climate change melting the glacier enough to expose the the remains, or whether it was just the natural progression of the glacier that allowed humans to discover it all. 

As a memorial, Bell Point on King George Island was named in the honor of that meteorologist who died in 1959.   

Freezing Fog Ices Vermont Trees Beautifully, Ices Roads Dangerously

Freezing fog this morning in St. Albans, Vermont
coated tree branches with delicate rime ice
A rare freezing fog advisory was in effect for the
Champlain Valley this morning. 

Freezing fog enveloped large parts of Vermont overnight, especially in the Champlain Valley. It left trees and pretty much everything else outside coated in ghostly white ice.   

And made things challenging on the roads. 

Freezing fog is when all the droplets in the fog are still liquid, even though the temperature is under 32 degrees.

As soon as these supercooled droplets as they're called  hit anything - a road, tree branches, your cold car windshield, they freeze.

On trees and other outdoor objects, the frozen water takes the form of rime ice, a delicate, feathery feature that is absolutely beautiful. 

On roadways, freezing fog forms virtually invisible black ice on pavement, especially on bridges and overpasses. 

The fact that in some cases only bridges are frozen, motorists are often taken by surprise. If they're going too fast, you can get some serious crashes. Especially if the freezing fog is thick and visibility is horrible, like it was in many areas in and near the Champlain Valley overnight and this morning. 

Freezing fog happens from time to time in Vermont. We had a bout of it around Christmastime last year.  When the sun hit those frosted trees, the scenery looked magical. It made the holiday season look that much better. 

Rime ice from freezing fog formed icy little 
needles on this St. Albans pine branch this morning, 

This morning's freezing fog was particularly dense in many spots. So dense that the the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued a freezing fog advisory for the entire Champlain Valley.

 It was the first time the Vermont NWS office issues such an advisory in a decade. 

The advisory stays in effect until 10 a.m today. If you're reading this early and planning on a drive, take it slow, keep your low beams on, and really be careful around those bridges and overpasses. And try to leave as much room as you can between you and the vehicle in front of you, 

The freezing fog should gradually lift during the course of the morning. At first it will probably transition to a low overcast. Eventually, the sun should break through for at least some of us.. 

It's tricky to determine when or if the sun will actually make an appearance. In warmer times of the year, the sun heats everything up enough to create updrafts that mix the air and evaporate the fog. 

This time of year the low angle of the sun means it can't heat things up enough to readily break up the fog. Some parts of the Champlain Valley could stay under the clouds all day. Or at least most of the day. 

Outside the Champlain Valley, there was much less fog, so other sections of Vermont will just have another partly sunny, cool November day. 

Tonight, the wind will begin to stir as a weather front begins to make an approach. Those winds should prevent another round of freezing fog from forming. Except maybe in the deeper valleys of eastern Vermont. 

Iceland Gearing Up For Atlantic Current Collapse

Iceland considers the risk of a critical Atlantic Ocean
current collapsing an existential threat. 

New research I posted about back in September about the possible collapse of a critical Atlantic Ocean current has Iceland on high alert. 

The newer research contradicted some earlier studies and said that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could shut down as soon as the middle of this century.  

That's really bad, because the current is what keeps western Europe mild and wet. Without the current, winters in western Europe would become something like central North America, and droughts would take hold. In effect, western Europe would suffer through a sort of regional ice age. 

This mess would, of course, be due to climate change.  

The collapse of the current would also cause bad, bad, worldwide effects, such as greatly increased water temperatures along United States East Coast. That would cause an abrupt rise in sea levels, since warm water expands. It would also might make the eastern United States more prone to hurricanes and other big storms. 

The collapse of the AMOC would also mess up rainfall amounts and seasons that farmers in Africa, India and South America have relied upon for centuries. 

Then there's Iceland. 

Like most of the rest of the world, Iceland has been warming up, thanks to climate change. The island nation way up in the North Atlantic actually saw their first mosquitoes in recorded history this year because the region had warmed up so much. 

If the AMOC shuts down, Iceland would definitely earn its name. It, too, benefits from the warmth of AMOC. 

Even though an AMOC collapse might not happen for a few decades, if at all, it has put Iceland on full alert:

According to Iceland Review:

"Iceland has, for the first time, classified a climate-related phenomenon as a national security threat, following warnings that a key Atlantic Ocean current system may be approaching collapse."

......"The move allows authorities to coordinate response plans across ministries, covering food and energy supplies, infrastructure and transport resilience."

MSN continues the story: 

"It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security.' Iceland Climate Minister Johann Pall Johansson said by email '(This) is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat.'"

Iceland is looking at a full range of possible effects of an AMOC crash, such as energy supplies, food security, infrastructure and transportation, both internal and with other nations.  

Other nations are taking notice, too. 

For instance, Ireland's weather service scientists briefed the nation's prime minister on the AMOC issue. Norway's environmental ministry said it was "seeking to deepen our understanding of the issue through new research" before determining whether to classify AMOC as a security risk,' MSN reported. 

INTERCONNECTED CHAOS

Of course, nobody knows when or if the AMOC will grind to a halt. If that happens, scientists think it would make Antarctica warm up even faster than it is now.

Newly released research also suggest that melting around West Antarctica now could help preserve the AMOC, or at least slow its demise.   

According to New Scientist:

"..it won't be enough to prevent major changes to the climate. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would still decline buy 60 percent, and its full recovery would take 3,000 years."

Which seems to me a little long to wait, don't you think?

As always, there's a lot of ifs, questions and blank spots in the research done by Sacha Sinet at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. 

 New Scientist again:

"According to simulations by Sinet and his colleagues, the timing of the melting is key. If a centuries-long pulse of Antarctic meltwater arrives at the same time as massive melt from Greenland, it will only see up the AMOC shutdown. 

If the Antarctic water arrives about 1,000 years before the peak of Greenland's melting, however, the AMOC would weaken for several hundred years, but then recover over the next 3,000 years. While the AMOC eventually recovered in all scenarios, this early Antarctic melt prevented its total collapses and sped up its revival." 

In other words, climate change isn't as simple as the world just warming up. Everything is connected, so expect the unexpected when it comes to climate change. 

The Vermont Sky Was A Strange Color This Morning: Blue!

Skies beginning to clear late yesterday afternoon
in St. Albans, Vermont. That darker stuff you
see at the top of the photo is still hanging off 
the eaves of my house. We still have snow
on the ground around here. 

 I awoke this morning here in St. Albans, Vermont to find quite a bit of blue sky.

Aside from a few glimpses of sun last Saturday, this is the first time the sky was truly mostly clear since November 8. That's a long time to be under the clouds, so it was almost shocking to see the blue skies this morning. 

Also shocking were the morning temperatures. The clear skies overnight allowed readings to really drop to easily the coldest so far this season. 

Most of Vermont was in the teens. Burlington was down to 21 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was just 3 degrees above zero.

A few spots got particularly cold because they had snow cover, which tends to promote even chillier nights. By the way,  Mount Mansfield set another record for the date yesterday for deepest snow cover, with a depth of 39 inches. 

That's the third deepest snow on record. WCAX meteorologist Gunner Consol did some checking. He found that of the 10 Novembers with the deepest snow, seven of them went on to have above average snow depths later in the winter, and three of them were below normal. 

These temperatures actually aren't strange at all for this time of year. (The record low in Burlington today is 7 above, so we really missed that by a large margin.

The chilly November we've endured so far has been mostly a function of cold daytime highs. Nights have been relatively mild. Finally seeing a bonafide cold morning is a bit of a shock to the system.

The mostly clear skies that helped make last night and early this morning so cold will help today warm up some. The sun angle is low, so it can't warm us up the much. But the sun will still give it a try. Which means by afternoon we should be well up into the 30s. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We're still looking at a break from "exciting weather" for the next few days. The atmosphere is still rearranging itself for the next barrage of storms that might (or might not) hit once we get into December. 

In the meantime, only little systems will come through. We'll still see some sun tomorrow in case you miss it today. A weak thing will come through Friday with a little light rain, which might start off as a bit of a mix way up high in the mountains.

This coming weekend will be pretty average for this time of year.  We won't exactly see clear skies. but the sun will be out part of the time during our short days, especially on Saturday. 

You usually can't expect balmy weather for this time of year, so highs will only be in the 35 to 45 degree range, depending on if you live in a traditional Vermont ice box or the state's banana belt towns. Overnights will get into the 20s. 

Killington and Jay Peak will be open for business this weekend, so if you want to get some early skiing or riding in, go for it. (Friday's rain won't melt much snow up there).

Our next shot at any storminess would come next Tuesday night or Wednesday. It's too soon to tell what kind of storm, how big it will be, or even whether it will actually affect us here in Vermont. 

Another Odd Tornado Disaster Location: Portugal

Damage left behind after a tornado killed an elderly woman
and injured several others recently in southern Portugal

Earlier this month it was Brazil, now it's Portugal. 

As in Brazil, a destructive, deadly tornado hit a campsite in Albulfeira, Portugal.  Numerous trees fell in the campsite, including one that killed an 85 year-old woman from Britain. The tornado seriously injure two other people  and caused minor injuries to about 20. 

Alburfeira is on the central southern coast of Portugal. Video showed what appeared to be a partly rain-wrapped tornado moving through an area that seems like a very nice tourist district. 

 The tornado was part of a larger system, dubbed Storm Claudia, which caused serious flooding in northern Portugal and in  Great Britain. 

Two people were reported killed by the flooding in northern Portugal

Severe flooding also hit southeast Wales, near the English border, where as much as 4.7 inches of rain fell.

The town of Monmouth, Wales was inundated as the River Monnow rose to a record high level. Other flooding was reported in other parts of England and in Ireland. 

There's been a spate of tornadoes in places that historically do get tornadoes. But the recent twisters have been unusually deadly and destructive. 

Earlier this month, a strong tornado killed six people, injured about 750 and essentially leveled a large town in the southern Brazilian state of Parana.

In October, another strong tornado swept through Ermont, France, a city about 13 miles north of Paris, killing one person, injuring several others and causing widespread damage.  

Trump Administration Tries Mob-Like Tactics To Try Stopping Shipping Efficiency Standards, Of All Things.

Trump administration officials used what were basically
mob-like tactics to scuttle a propose international
green/climate change fighting shipping accord. 

A November 3 Politico article illustrates just how scary efforts to combat climate change are to the Team Trump. 

They're resorting to methods that you'd almost see in a bad mobster movie. 

First, the background: 

As I posted at the end of August, the International Maritime Organization is negotiating a "net-zero framework" for shipping, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions form the international shipping center. 

The IMO, which has 176 member countries, regulates the safety and security if international shipping and works to prevent pollution on the oceans and seas.  

The  U.S.under Trump wants no part of clean shipping deal, because Trump thinks climate change is a "hoax" and emissions regulations are just aimed at wrecking the U.S. economy. 

Trump world thinks that, but pretty much nobody else. Whatevs. 

Back in August, we learned that Trump was strong arming countries who supported the proposed agreement. At the time, he was using his usual tariff threats. 

Now, according to Politico, it's gotten way worse. 

"Eight envoys, officials and civil society observers from Europe, granted anonymity to describe the fractious closed-door discussions and protect their relationships with those involved confirmed national delegates had reported they had been threatened with personal consequences if they went against Washington."

'Our negotiators had never see this before in any international talks,' said one European official, who had spoken to negotiators. 'People being summoned to the U.S. Embassy in London - intimidation, threats of cessation of business, threats of family members losing visas."

I'm sure any international negotiations over commerce -  or anything else for that matter  - often get tense, and we never hear about it. 

But this had to be especially bad if negotiators are willing to talk to the media, even if they do it anonymously. 

Given these are Trump people, the U.S. delegation didn't abandon tariff threats, no siree They threatened Caribbean nations with tariffs mules they agreed to postpone the shipping emissions decision, Politico reported.  

U.S. officials basically admitted this weird, excessive pressure in an October 10 press release from the State Department.

The threats in the press release against nations that sign on to the green shipping agreement include barring ships from those nations from U.S. ports; imposing visa restrictions and increasing fees on maritime crew member visas; imposing additional port fees on ships owned, operated and flagged by countries supporting the agreement; and imposing sanctions on officials supporting these climate policies.

That last one gets me. Sanctions on individuals are usually used on war criminals, or at least adjacent to war criminals. You know, like Russian oligarchs promoting the war against Ukraine, that type of thing. 

The State Department press release also labeled the planned accord as an "unsanctioned global tax regime."

What it really would have been is the first global carbon-pricing system. It would have charted ships $380 per metric ton of every extra to of CO2 equivalent they emit. Vessels would have been rewarded for reducing their emissions. 

Notice I'm referring to this thing in the past tense. 

That's because ultimately, the Trump administration's mob tactics worked, at least for now

As Politco reports:

"In a close vote, the summit chose to delay the emissions tax for a year - a feat viewed by many as a near-death blow to the measure and a major victory for Trump. Dozens of countries from Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia agreed to the delay." 

Short term, these strong-arm tactics from the Trump team worked. In the long run, they rarely do. Nations just find a way to work around the United States. That cuts us out of future negotiating and economic power. 

Eventually, individuals, governments, you name it come to understand that Trump's aggressiveness is not strength, but weakness. 

If Trump thinks he's turning us into more of a superpower than ever, he's mistaken. Instead, he's turning the U.S. into a backwater. 

Vermont Mountains Buried In Snow, But Weather Now Going Quiet

We weren't able to get all of the flower pots and deck 
furniture put away before winter weather arrived a 
little over a week ago here in St. Albans, Vermont. 
There's still snow on the ground, and forecasts
indicate it won't melt away quickly. 

Most of the snow that kept falling and falling and falling on many of Vermont's mountains is finally pretty much over as of this morning. 

The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield reached 38 inches by late Monday afternoon, the deepest on record for the date.

 There have only been six other November dates since 1954 with more snow on the ground on than on Monday. 

Those six dates were all in the Novembers in 1990 and 2018.  

This doesn't predict what kind of winter we're going to have. In Burlington, the winter of 1990-91 was the ninth least snowiest  on record in Burlington. The winter of 2018-19 was the tenth snowiest on record, 

On Sunday and Monday, the mountains collected almost all the snow, with valleys pretty much avoiding almost everything. True, many towns in the Northeast Kingdom managed a few inches, but everyone outside of the Green Mountains and their western slopes.

On the western slopes, Underhill Center saw 9.8 inches of new snow, and Fletcher got 8 inches. Most places got less than an inch. 

The almost daily snows we've seen in the Vermont mountains are pretty much shutting off for awhile. 

Instead, we're going to have a probably sort of brief interlude of boring weather. Which is par for the course for November, and, frankly a bit of a relief from the admittedly badly needed storminess we've recently experienced.  Drought relief is still welcome. 

Actually, the whole nation is getting a break from recent storminess. Only modest storms will cross the United States for the next few days. 

For us, we'll have quiet weather today through Thursday. There might even be a little bit of sun each day, especially on Wednesday. How about that for a change?  

It's been chilly, and unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on your perspective, it's not going to warm up much over the next three days. It'll get to 40 degrees in some of the broader valleys, which I suppose is an improvement over the past week or so. 

If you still have snow on the ground, it's not going to go away quickly.

One of those "meh" storms will come through us here in Vermont around Friday. Since it will be somewhat warmer than it's been lately, most of the precipitation with this thing will come down as rain. Even in the mountains. 

This won't be a big storm at all, so no flooding, no drama. Just a little wet weather for the end of the week. 

Computer models have been hinting it might really warm up around Vermont in the closing days of November, at least for a little while. But some of those forecasts are backing off on that idea. I'm doubting we'll see any truly balmy late autumn weather in the foreseeable future. 

Meanwhile, we still have some uncertain signs of a return to more exciting weather once we get into December.  That just means a more active weather pattern. It's too soon to tell what "exciting" will mean once we get past the Thanksgiving weekend. 

Vermont's Jay Peak, Not Open For Season Yet, Dealing With Too Much Of A Good Thing

Jay Peak Resort in northern Vermont posted to social
media this photo of resort crews prepping the slopes
for next week's opening amid heavy snow. People
have already been flocking to the resort, and
some of them have been causing serious
headaches and dangers for the resort. 

The people who run Jay Peak Resort, in far northern Vermont, say they have had - incredibly - nearly   four feet of snowfall in the past two weeks. 

The problem is, the resort is not open for the season yet. They were planning on opening at the very end of the month, around Thanksgiving. But the resort is pushing up the opening date to this coming weekend, given the unexpectedly snowy circumstances.

But the crew up there has to first get everything set up and running to accommodate those skiers. 

Meanwhile, all that fresh natural snow is too tempting to ignore, and people are heading up to the mountain to ski and ride, even thought the lifts aren't operating yet. 

Which leads us to Skiers Behaving Badly. 

In a Facebook post today, Jay Peak Resort General Manager Steve Wright reported that over the weekend, there had been two break-ins at lift shacks, two fires, two groups of lost skiers and "an injury severe enough to wipe out the entire season for someone who thought adding backflips into their early season matrix was a good and swell idea."

People were also ignoring pleas to stick to the Tramside part of the resort so that crews could get the Stateside, where crews were operating winch cables. Skiers and riders were running over the winch cables, which is a BIG no-no.

That's a big danger to the skiers and riders, AND the crews operating them. The Facebook post states: "We care a hell of a lot for the Mountain Ops team, who while grooming/winching /snowmaking in near whiteout conditions, also have to navigate folks ignoring pretty simple requests."

Uphilling and skinning - attaching skins to skis so you can climb uphill and not slide backward - is pretty much a pre-season tradition at ski resorts when there's a ton of snow before the resort opens.

Since lifts aren't open yet, people climb ski slopes, then blast down from the top on the not-officially-open trails 

Some resorts, including Jay, tend to tolerate this as long as uphillers don't get in the way of work crews or otherwise violate rules. Jay Peak refers to a culture of watching out for each other and respecting basic rules of engagement and civility in the sport as having been "Raised Jay." 

The Facebook post acknowledged experienced uphillers who are behaving fine, but the early winter weather has "brought out new folks owning an attitude resembling altogether different from Raised Jay." 

My guess is some of these troublemakers have brought their phones so they can shoot scenes for clicks on social media. 

By the way, since Jay Peak isn't open yet, there's no ski patrol there yet to rescue anyone who does something stupid. 

Here's another thing. It's hunting season. Deer hunters aren't going to do their thing on the Jay Peak trails. It's stupid, plus they know the deer woh't be there. 

But one person commenting on Jay Peak's Facebook post said he saw back country skiers hiking up the hills near Route 242, passing by a deer hunter's truck. The skiers were not wearing blaze orange, so there's an accidental shooting in the making.  

I noticed the comments on Jay Peak's Facebook posts were supportive of the resort's warnings, but cautioned that you can't easily stop a mix of stupidity and entitlement. "What are the chances a jersey joey or Mickey Montreal will listen to this?," one person asked. 

Another said this type is the scourge of most resorts, warning of another type of ski resort jerk, the "Killington Karen."  

In a sign that this is why we can't have nice things, Jay Peak is threatening to block uphilling or any other activity on the mountain for everybody until the resort officially opens. Because of the entitled few that are wrecking things. 

I haven't checked in with other Vermont resorts that aren't open yet, but if I had to guess, they're seeing some of the same problems Jay Peak Resort has seen in recent days.

Do better, folks!  

Carbon Emissions Set To Set New Highs This Year

Global fossil fuel emissions are continuing to rise
in 2025, despite increases in renewal sources
like solar and wind. 

The only real way to blunt climate change is to reduce and even end humans' nasty habit of belching ton after ton of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere.  

So far, it's not working. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 1.1 percent, amounting to 38.1 billion metric tons of fossil carbon dioxide emissions in one year, the report found." 

This is another nail in the coffin for the goal to keep Earth beneath a 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold that many experts said would constitute catastrophic warming. 

"Catastrophic" is in the eye of the beholder of course. But the world is still slightly below that 1.5 degree threshold, and climate change is already killing thousands of people annually at minimum, and is causing billions of dollars in damage. 

Going past the 1.5 degree warming Greenland ice sheet melting would accelerate to sea level rise enough to threaten cities around the world. Heat and humidity would make big swaths of the world essentially uninhabitable. 

Crop failures, disease and weather disasters would greatly accelerate, according to scientists. 

Already, right now, heat waves are much worse and more frequently than they used to be. Storms are stronger, deadlier and more destructive. 

In another recently released report. the International Energy Agency says that under current policies, the world will have warmed nearly 3 degrees Celsius by 2100.

Even if nations stick to strict clean energy policies that would make worldwide coal and oil demand peak by 2030, warming would still be close to 2.5 degrees. 

United States emissions will probably increase by 1.9 percent this year. Driving the increase was a somewhat colder winter than the previous two. Plus, natural gas prices went up, so there was a corresponding increase in coal consumption. 

It looks like big emitters like China and India will have only slight increases in 2025. China's annual emissions unto increases until recently have been huge, but it has slowed way down in recent years, they've plateaued. This year, their fossil emissions are expected to increase just 0.4 percent over last year. 

India's emissions will only increase by 1.4 percent this year, less than previous years. But that might be because record heat was less widespread in India this year than recent seasons so air conditioning use was lower. 

The bottom line is renewable energy is growing by leaps and bounds, but energy demand is outstripping that. 

It does seem like the goal post for peak fossil fuel emissions keep moving. Over the past few years, we keep getting told that peak fossil fuel emissions are imminent, and would soon start to decline. But it never happens. 

Per the Washington Post:

"'The expectation is that Chinese and global fossil CO2 emissions should peak soon based on growth in renewable energy,' said Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate Research and one of the Carbon Budget report's authors 'But emissions keep growing, making the peak always seem like it is one year away.'"

BRIGHT SPOTS

Although global fossil fuel emissions are rising more slowly over this decade so far than previous decades, so the hope of an eventual reversal in emissions is still alive. Maybe barely, but alive.

 There are some bright spots in the annual emissions reports. Emissions in at least 35 countries have decreased in the past decade while their economies have grown. Many developing countries have radically increased their solar and wind power capabilities. 

Also, the BBC tells us:

"Electricity generated from fossil fuels is forecast to flatline or even decline slightly this year, according to the think tank Ember, for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic". 

That's despite the fact that electricity demand increased sharply this year. The extra demand has been more than met by solar generation, and to a somewhat lesser extend, wind power.  

Vermont Mountain Snow A Symptom Of A Nasty November

Route 105 in Jay, Vermont was once again a snow
globe this morning as heavy snows continued in
the central and northern Green Mountains. 

We know it snowed a lot in the Vermont mountains overnight and early today, but so far, we don't have much information as to how much snow fell.  

As of 9 a.m., the reports I've seen include eight inches of new snow in Johnson, six inches in Underhill and four inches in Montpelier. A little further away from the mountains, I have about a half inch of new snow here in St. Albans. 

Based on radar images from yesterday, the upslope snow in Vermont initially had trouble getting its act together Sunday afternoon. The snow seemed to arrange itself in streaks, so it was hit and miss. 

The upslope snow finally consolidated and did its thing overnight. I'm sure some of the northern Green Mountain summits are at least closing in on a foot of new snow. It was still cranking this morning. 

Traffic cameras hint at quite a bit of snow up high.  It remains to be seen whether any of the northern Green Mountain are getting the two feet of new snow that was in the forecast.

I see there was 28 inches of snow at the stake near the top of Mount Mansfield late Sunday afternoon.  Most of the new snow will have come overnight and this morning. 

It'll keep snowing all morning in the western slopes of the Green Mountains and only slowly diminish through the day today and tonight. Winter storm warnings are still up in the central and northern Greens. 

In the low elevations, today won't be a big deal. It won't be nice, but it will be cloudy, it will be windy, and it will be cold. Not a nice day, but what do you expect from mid-November?

If you're in the Champlain Valley, or the lower Connecticut Valley, it'll pretty much just be flurries today. The closer you get to the mountains, the harder it will snow, and the more likely the roads will be on the iffy side. 

NOT NICE NOVEMBER 

This morning was another gray, cold, windy one
here in St. Albans, Vermont. This has NOT been
a nice November at all. 

Today's unpleasant weather is another day in a Vermont November that has been particularly trying. 

To begin with, November is never a glorious weather month in Vermont. It's the cloudiest month of the year, or at least tied with December for that honor. It is seemingly always dark, windy and cold. 

That's what we're getting this month, only writ large. 

As measured in Burlington, today will be the ninth consecutive cooler than normal day. Sunday was the eighth consecutive day with measurable precipitation. 

Today will be 15th consecutive day in a row with at least a trace of rain or snow. Winds in Burlington have gusted over 30 mph in 10 of the first 16 days of the month. 

Plus, we're not used to this. In August through October, our big drought did have the benefit of giving us day after day of clear, warm, sunny weather. That was taken away from us big time once November hit. 

We've also gotten used to warm Novembers. With the glaring exception of 2019, most Novembers in recent years have been a bit like Octobers used to be back in the day. 

This November I guess is more traditional, if you want to call it that. 

OUTLOOK

The sort of good news is the weather will temporarily turn kind of boring for the rest of the week. It'll turn slightly warmer, but it won't exactly get toasty. Daily high temperatures later this week will be within a few degrees either side of 40.. 

The sun might actually come out at times tomorrow and Wednesday, especially in the broader valleys. That'll be a nice switch from what we've seen.

The next storm in the pipeline looks like it will arrive around Friday. That one won't be a huge one, and it will probably mostly come in the form of rain.  

Tumultuous U.S. Weather Pattern Has Started, Could Get Worse: Storms, Temperature Whiplash

Some flip flops in the weather patterns will keep
meteorologists hopping for the next few 
months. After cool weather in the East,
there's some hints of warmer air 
in the second half of the month. 

Almost every year, in the late fall and winter, we get spells in which the weather pattern flips around in a big transition or even bunch of transitions.    

When that happens, our weather in the U.S. can get wonky. 

We've just entered one of those transformations  in recent days. So expect some weather weirdness, which could get more extreme once we get past Thanksgiving. 

The weirdness began in age days ago. 

We started out with dozens of record lows in the southeastern United States last week, thanks to air that came directly from Greenland to normally balmy places like Georgia and North Florida. 

Wilmington, North Carolina  experienced their earliest in the season snow flurries on record.  Lumberton, North Carolina had 0.1 inches of snow, their earliest measurable snowfall on record

Then the heat turned on in the Great Plains over the past couple of days. 

On Saturday, cities in Texas and Oklahoma reported their hottest November temperatures on record, including 93 in Frederick, 92 in Lawton, and 90 in Ada, Hallmark, Allburton and Sand Springs. 

The temperature reached 92 in Wichita Falls, Texas, and 90 in Lubbock for new November records. 

On Friday, Minneapolis reached a record high of 72 degrees. It was the warmest on record for so late in the season. Des Moines and Ames, Iowa both reached 74 degrees for record highs. Perhaps the weirdest high on Friday was 83 degrees in Yankton, in southeastern South Dakota. 

That's awfully far north for 80 degree weather in mid-November. 

The next odd thing was the storm over the weekend in southern California. Los Angeles had two inches of rain over two days. The normal rainfall for the entire month of November there is 0.8 inches.

There were widespread reports of minor flooding, mud flows and downed trees, but the damage was not as bad as some feared. 

UP NEXT 

The weather pattern across the Lower 48 will experience large changes over the next few days and weeks. 

It won't be all that exciting at first. Over the next few days, fairly routine weather systems will cross the nation this week, not enough to generate big weather headlines. In the middle of a weather pattern adjustment, storms can get a little disorganized and lack power as a result. That's what's generally happening now. 

Then things could get interesting. 

But that warmth in the Northeast might not last. NOAA
is hinting at colder weather again over the Northeast
in the first half of December. 

It looks like we're in for two big pattern changes, and that can blow up some big storms this time of year.  

Long range forecasts for the second half of November suggests a possible switch from chilly to somewhat above normal temperatures here in the Northeast, though the NOAA forecasts are hedging a bit.

The West would turn cool.  Between the two extremes, some of the computer forecasting models are trying to sniff out a fairly large storm around Thanksgiving. 

It could even be one of those Great Lakes "gales of November" storms made famous with the Wreck of the Edmond Fitzgerald. 

But we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. Trying to forecast a storm this far in advance is kind of a fool's errant. Anything - or nothing - can still happen. 

DECEMBER CHAOS? 

Those milder temperatures, even if we get them, might not last much past Thanksgiving weekend. Even longer range forecasts suggest a return to cooler than normal weather for the first half of December. Those December forecasts also lean slightly toward above average precipitation, which might translate into another snowy period. 

I'm seeing hints of the first truly Arctic air mass of the season cross the border from Canada into the United States toward the first of December. Again, that's set in stone, but early December is the time of year somebody in the northern United States starts to see below zero temperature.s 

There's yet another wrinkle in the long range forecast beyond Thanksgiving. 

It's complicated, but here it goes:

Something called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event is taking place high in the atmosphere over or near the Arctic. This happens from time to time in the winter, but this one is oddly early in the season. 

For whatever reason, a layer of the atmosphere 6 to 31 miles up, above where weather happens, it disrupts the polar vortex.

As you might remember, the polar vortex is a huge whirl of cold air that usually stays up north, fairly close to the Arctic.

When the polar vortex is strong, it tends to keep frigid air bottled up far to the north of the U.S. and Europe. 

A sudden stratospheric event weakens the polar vortex and can displace it. The jet stream gets wavy and wonky, and you can get extreme cold and winter storms in parts of  North America, Europe and Asia.

The click bait out there is telling us we in the U.S. can essentially expect practically a new ice age as a result of this by mid-December. 

Don't hold your breath that one. 

The reality is it's possible we could get a strong cold wave, or some nasty winter storms. Or we might not. Maybe the really cold air will go toward Asia or Europe. Or the polar vortex won't get all that messed up. If that happens things might not get unbelievably wonky. 

The bottom line is, the weather has gotten more interesting in the past week, and it will probably stay on the more interesting than usual side for the next few weeks. 

What "interesting" means is TBA.  

Green Mountains In Vermont To Get Buried In Snow By Monday

National Weather Service snowfall prediction map.
Practically nothing in some valleys, but closing in
on two feet on some mountains by Tuesday.

 The first part of our storm is over, the one that dumped a cold rain, and in some areas freezing rain overnight. 

All the was expected, and was the easy part of the forecast for this storm. And those forecasts were pretty accurate.

Now comes the tricky part. 

We have a big, classic, upslope snow event for the Green Mountains. That's when moisture-laden air, propelled by stiff northwest winds, slams into the west slopes of the mountains. The air is forced to rise up and over the mountains. 

Rising air cools. Cooler air can't hold as much moisture as milder air. So the cooler air sheds the excess moisture it can't handle as precipitation. In this case, it means snow. Lots of snow.

This type of weather scenario happens all the time, every winter in Vermont. This episode will be bigger than most of them. 

The broad brush part of the forecast is easy. We know it's going to snow a lot in the Green Mountains, especially in central and northern Vermont. We know the summits of the Green Mountains will get nailed. Few of us  will be surprised if Jay Peak gets a couple feet. That's the mountain that almost always gets buried the most in this type of situation.

We also know very little snow will come down in places like the southern Champlain Valley and the Connecticut River Valley, roughly south of Wells River. 

It's the details that are tricky.  Especially in towns on the edge of the heavy snow zone. Places that get barely an inch or two will be very close to places that get six inches, even 12 inches. 

Probably the trickiest areas to forecast are in western Vermont, east of Route 7 all the way from Pownal to Highgate. 

Right along Route 7, there probably won't be much snow at all. But heading east from Route 7, snow totals will rapidly rise.  But where will that sharp increase start? In Chittenden County, will you start seeing a fair amount of snow in Williston? Or will you need to get to Bolton or the eastern part of Jericho to find pretty deep snow?

I live on Route 36 in St. Albans. Near the lake, on that road, they'll be lucky to get an inch of snow. I live on the transition zone on Route 36 on Fairfield Hill. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a couple inches of new snow at my house. 

But two miles up the road, at the top of the hill, there could be double the amount of snow over what will be in my back yard. Bakersfield, about 13 miles east of my place, could get a foot or more of snow.  

As I began writing this at 8 a.m. Sunday, the northwest flow has just barely started. We were getting snow flurries in St. Albans at that hour, and weather radar shows the beginnings of this upslope snow. 

The heavy snow will peak from this afternoon through early Monday. 

A winter storm warning is unsurprisingly in effect for much of northern Vermont near the Green Mountains.    As mentioned, snow amounts will vary widely between valleys and mountaintops.

It also looks like much of the Northeast Kingdom should get a fair amount of snow with this. Winter weather advisories are in effect up there. A winter weather advisory is up for Franklin County, too, where, as mentioned, snowfall will be super variable. 

Further south in Vermont, the mountain snows won't be quite as heavy. But it'll be noticeable. A winter weather advisory is in effect down the spine of the Green Mountains from central Vermont to the Massachusetts border. 

The National Weather Service is going for three to six inches, with locally as much as ten inches in this winter weather advisory zone. 

No matter where you are this afternoon through tomorrow, it's going to be windy. Expect gusts over 30 mph in most places, with a few gusts over 40 mph. 

Where it will be snowing hard, expect a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Almost blizzard conditions, really. 

By the way, the Adirondacks of New York, especially the northern and western Adirondacks, will get buried, too in this situation. Same is true for some of the White Mountains of New Hampshire. 

The bottom line: I'd avoid travel this afternoon through Monday morning along high elevation mountain roads. You know the places: Roadways like Route 17 through Buels Gore, Roxbury Gap, Route 242 and 105 way up by Jay Peak, the back roads near and east of towns like Bakersfield, Enosburgh, Cambridge, Underhill, Huntington, Ripton. 

The snow will finally tend to lighten up and stay closer to the immediate Green Mountain ridgeline starting later tomorrow into Tuesday. 

Most ski areas won't be open yet but I'm sure there will be some people hiking in for some powder skiing.  

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Big Thump Of Rain/Mix/Ice Tonight, Big Northern Greens Snowstorm Sun. Night.

Vermont will still get a good thump of rain, freezing rain
ick and schmutz this evening, But this National
Weather Service snow forecast map hints at LOTS
of snow in the Green Mountains Sunday afternoon
through Monday. 

 Just a quick Saturday evening update on that messy storm that is on Vermont's doorstep.

Usually a storm that comes in from the west is pretty uneventful, but this one is super dynamic, so we have a pretty good thump of precipitation on the way. 

It's so dynamic that there's been a lot of thunder and lightning today in western New York and southeastern Ontario. 

After a pretty nice day for mid-November, and compared to what we've had lately, the bad weather will come in fast between 6 and 8 p.m., give or take. 

Whatever comes out of the sky tonight will come down pretty hard, mostly between about 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. The initial part of this storm is short but intense. Rain and melted ice will amount to about a half inch during those hours, so that's substantial for that short time a time frame. 

There's a slight chance you might even hear a rumble of thunder. 

There's still a winter weather advisory for Vermont outside of the Champlain Valley and western Rutland County because some of this will come down as freezing rain.  Roads will get pretty slick. I'd consider abandoning plans to drive around central and eastern Vermont overnight. Or at least plan to take it slow and easy. 

As mentioned this morning the ice will be hit and miss on the roads. Some stretches in the advisory area will be just wet, while a little down the road it'll be glare ice. 

Even in the Champlain Valley, there might be some spots of snow initially and maybe a little sleet and freezing rain mixed in here and there, but it'll be mostly rain overnight. 

As the storm heads east Sunday, winds will really pick up from the west and northwest, gusting to 40 mph in places during the afternoon. Rain showers will turn to snow shower.s 

Most valleys won't have much in the way of rain and snow tomorrow 

However, the central and northern Green Mountains are gearing up for an epic snowstorm. More on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

Next Round Of Vermont Winter Weather To Be Icy, Then Windy And Snowy

Freezing rain prediction map. Most places in Vermont
should get some tonight It'll be enough to make driving
dangerous but likely not enough to cause damage
to trees and power lines. Freezing rain will be
spottier in the Champlain Valley. 

 Winter in November continues with the next storm on Vermont's doorstep. It will spread ice, rain, then gusty winds and in some places, a lot of snow by tomorrow and tomorrow night.  

Some areas were getting glimpses of sun this morning. Which is great, since I haven't seen any sun since last Saturday. 

But the slightly brighter skies won't last long. Clouds will thicken up during the day and temperatures for most of us will stay in the 30s.

The main show begins this evening. A winter weather advisory is up for all of Vermont except for the Champlain Valley and western Rutland County.  It goes from 7 p.m. this evening to 7 a.m. Sunday.  . 

The problem this time will be freezing rain. 

This is following the pattern of most storms that try to bring relatively warm air up ahead of them. The mild air has a clear shot south to north up the Champlain Valley,  so it's harder to get freezing rain there. 

The trouble starts at the Green Mountains. 

The warm air near the surface often can't get over the mountains to eastern Vermont, but has no trouble blasting in above the Green Mountains, a few thousand feet over our heads. So, rain comes down through the warm air aloft, but freezes on impact in the valleys near and east of the Greens. That's tonight's scenario. 

Get used to it. This sort of thing  usually happens several times each winter.  

All that said, the Champlain Valley doesn't escape it entirely. There might be patches of ice even in that banana belt valley this evening. Temperatures will hover not far from the freezing mark, so you never know. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, it'll be annoyingly tricky. If you're brave enough to drive anywhere in or east of the Green Mountains tonight, you might find just a wet road one moment, and glare ice just 100 feet further down the highway. 

The good new is there won't be nearly enough freezing rain to cause problems with trees and power lines. 

The bulk of the freezing rain will come between early evening and before dawn.   

The storm itself will move eastward across northern New York and into northern Vermont overnight, then start to redevelop over Maine. From there, it will intensify as it heads toward southeast Canada. Which spells trouble for us Sunday through Monday.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Snow prediction map from Sunday to early Tuesday. 
Once again, the northern Green Mountains are in
for a nice dump of snow. Many northern Vermont 
low and mid elevations should get a few inches,
except for the Champlain Valley. The Lower
Connecticut River Valley misses out again. 

High temperatures for most of us will come on Sunday morning. Readings will fall all day as northwest winds really pick up. They'll gust to as high as 40 mph in many areas as temperatures slowly fall. 

Any lingering rain will turn to snow. That's set the stage for a big snowstorm for a few of us, light accumulations for most of us, and nothing at all for a few people  in the Green Mountain State.

The front end of the storm - as I mentioned above - is a classic freezing rain scenario. The back end Sunday and Sunday night is a classic upslope snowstorm. 

Moisture in those northwest winds will slam into the west slopes of the Green Mountains, meaning the air will have to go up and over those hills. Rising air squeezes the moisture out of the air, and that moisture will come down as snow. Lots of it in some spots.

The central and northern Green Mountains, already buried in snow from this past week, are in for another six to 12 inches. Maybe even more than that on a few mountain peaks.

The summit of Mount Mansfield already had 25 inches on the ground as of yesterday afternoon. That's the second most for the date. Only November 14, 1990 had more. 

Meanwhile, a lot of valleys in northern Vermont might see two to four inches of snow out of this by Monday afternoon. The Champlain Valley should see maybe an inch or less. Amounts maybe closer to two inches or a little over that could hit the northern end of the valley up toward St. Albans and Swanton. 

As is usual with this kind of scenario, the southeastern corner of Vermont down in the lower Connecticut Valley will be lucky to get flurries out of this. 

But everybody in Vermont will get to enjoy the strong, cold northwest winds through at least Monday. 

The cold will continue too. There are signs it might start to warm up toward the end of the upcoming week. We shall see!