Winter Storm Watches Now Up In the Northeast, Including Parts of Vermont

That dark blue area from northeastern Pennsylvania to
Maine is a winter storm watch as heavy snow might
fall in that band on Tuesday. That sort of off-purple
patch in north central New York is for some lake-
enhanced snow tonight. 

We've got a quick little update since this morning:

A wide band of winter storm watches as of late this afternoon have popped up from northeastern Pennsylvania, through central New York, central New England on into central Maine. 

Before we even get into the updates, today's bits and pieces of snow caused some real headaches. Both northbound and southbound lanes of Interstate 89 near Sharon had multiple crashes due to icy conditions this afternoon. Traffic, as you would imagine, was seriously gummed up in that area.

The closest traffic cam to the crash site I could find was along Interstate 89 in Bethel which didn't look too bad late this afternoon. It appears a half inch or so of snow has fallen in the area. That proves it doesn't take much to cause some danger on the roads. 

We've got some chances of snow overnight, so look out for more icy spots, including on your way in to work tomorrow after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Now, the storm. This will be the third of three storms that affected parts of the U.S. this week. The first sent blizzard conditions through parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes last week. The second came yesterday with widespread snows from South Dakota to Michigan. Now we have this thing in the Northeast. 

Here in Vermont, basically draw a west to east line across the middle of the state, and south of that is your winter storm watch. 

It's in effect from early Tuesday morning to late Tuesday night. Somewhere in middle of that time frame, maybe in the afternoon and early evening, there might be a few quick hours where the snow comes down hard.

That is, if the storm goes according to plan. There's still a lot of hemming and hawing among the computer models as to how close to us it will come. 

The storm could blast right over southeastern New England, which would throw the big burst of snow into interior New England, including southern Vermont.  Or, it could race across the waters off the New England, coast, which would reduce how much snow the Green Mountain state catches.

Northern Vermont - at this point anyway - seems to be on the hook for just light snow. There's still even a chance of nothing up by the Canadian border, we'll see.

The more detailed computer models come out during the day tomorrow. Those might be able to better pin down how much everybody gets.  

I'll have an update for you tomorrow morning. 

October Was World's Third Warmest, Continuing This Year's Trend

Once again it was hard to find many cool spots around
the world. It was the third hottest October on record
according to NOAA. 

The National Centers for Environmental Information is finally catching up after this fall's 43-day government shutdown and we now have the global and national climate data for October, 

It turns out that, according to the report released on Tuesday, once again last month, we had the third warmest October on record. If that sounds familiar, it's because it is. 

Says Yale Climate Connections:

"This is the fifth time in a  row that a calendar month has placed third for all time warmth behind 2023 and  2024. While 'third warmest' may not sound eye-poppingly impressive, this comes on the heels of an astoundingly warm couple of years that were fueled by a strong El Nino dent atop long-term human-caused warming."

If you are under the age of 50, you've never seen an October in which the world saw a cooler than average global October. 

Very much like September, though October was the third warmest, it was much balmier than the fourth warmest, according to NCEI.  Together, 2023 through 2025 has been ridiculously warm, compared to past centuries.  

The warmest places, relative to average, were in the Arctic and Antarctica, northern North America, southeast Asia, the northern Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean. In fact North America as a whole had their warmest October on reared. So did the Arctic and Antarctica. Antarctica's record was set by a wide margin.  

As usual, it was hard to find places in the world that were cooler than the 20th century average. An areas around Mongolia and south-central Russia were on the chilly side. Small pockets in southern Africa and South America also came in on the cool side. It looks like a remote spot in the far southern Pacific Ocean were chilly, too. 

So far, January through October, 2025 is running as second warmest on record says NCEI, mostly because of a hotter start to the year. Only 2024 was hotter.  I have my suspicions that this year might end up as third hottest, behind 2023 and 2024, but of course, who knows for sure. 

The bottom line is it's been insanely warm the last three years.

UNITED STATES

As for the United States, the Lower 48 had its eighth warmest out of the past 131 years, NCEI said. The warmest area was through pretty much the entirety of the Great Plains. Most states there had one of their top 10 warmest Octobers on record. 

Northern and eastern New England had a much warmer than average October, too. That was mostly driven by an early month heat wave that shattered previous records for the highest October temperatures on record. 

No region in the United States was particularly cool, though the Pacific Northwest and pockets of the southeast were slightly on chilly side for October. 

Precipitation was just slightly above average for the month in the United States. The northwestern Plains were on the wet side, but overall, rainfall wasn't all that extreme across the nation. 

 

Blustery Snow Today To Introduce A Very Wintry Vermont Week

This the National Weather Service's initial attempt
at a snow forecast for the week. It includes the light
snows today and the potentially heavier dump
Tuesday. While this map shows more than 
six inches in southern and central Vermont, this
is a SUPER uncertain forecast. Definitely
expect adjustments up or down as we get
closer to the event. 

With December starting tomorrow, the Vermont forecast is right on cue: This will be the first hardcore wintry week of the season. 

True, we won't be setting new record low temperature or breaking snowfall records. But if you like snow, bitter temperatures and biting winds, this will be your week. 

TODAY

As we get into the bulk of today, it will probably be the "warmest" day of the week, but it surely won't feel balmy.

Light snow had spread into most of Vermont as of 8 a.m. this morning.  This is part of the same storm that created a huge dump of snow across the Midwest yesterday. 

No huge dumps for us today, but we'll still feel the storm's effects. We won't have much precipitation, but it will be a dark, blustery, raw day.  South winds were picking up this morning, especially in the Champlain Valley and the narrow valleys along Route 7 in southern Vermont. 

Even though the snow is falling lightly, the gusts will blow it around, so there will be some visibility.  The winds will continue to pick up through the day, especially in the central and northern Champlain Valley. There, a wind advisory for gusts as high as 45 mph is in effect until 7 p.m. this evening. The wind advisory is also up for northeastern New York. 

The rest of Vermont will stay gusty, but not quite as bad as in the Champlain Valley. The south winds will transport in some warmer air, so many valleys will go over to light rain this afternoon.

Tonight, the storm's cold front comes through, throwing some more snow showers at us. 

For us, this is a small storm. Most of us will get an inch or less of snow. The combination of rain and melted snow should be around a tenth of an inch or less. No biggy, just a raw, blustery, yucky day, the kind you stay indoors for watching NFL games or Netflix. 

MONDAY

The calm before the next storm. It'll be colder than normal, as that is the trend of the week. As chilly as it's been lately, Burlington has surprisingly not had a high temperature yet this season that is below freezing. That could change tomorrow as most of us should stay in the 25 to 32 degree range during the day. 

TUESDAY

Here's where it gets interesting. 

A storm will start to get going somewhere near New Orleans Monday night. It will rocket northeastward to off the southeast New England coast Tuesday night, strengthening along the way. 

We still don't know if this means a dump of snow in Vermont or not. The exact track of the storm isn't nailed down yet. Somebody in New England will get a bunch of snow out of this, but we don't quite know who yet. 

If it goes right over the New England coast, all of Vermont will see at least a couple to several inches of snow. If it goes further east, it'll be mostly a southern Vermont thing. 

The weather models have been wonky, so I'm not trusting anything until we get closer to the event. Just know there will probably be snow for many if not all of us on Tuesday. For some of us, especially in southern and eastern Vermont, it could be quite a lot. 

We do know this storm will race by, so very few, if any people will get more than a foot of snow in New England, But the storm will be big enough to have real impacts on somebody, somewhere.. 

Adjust your plans accordingly and keep an eye out for updates. 

LATE WEEK

Wednesday will be calmer, ahead of the next system. Some sun should break out, and temperatures will rise into the 28-36 degree range for most of us. That's still a little cooler than average, but you ain't seen nothin' yet. 

The forecast for Thursday is actually more certain than it is for Tuesday, which is weird. An Arctic cold front will blast through with a band of snow showers and maybe snow squalls. The snow accumulation with the front won't be the biggest problem, but abrupt snow showers and gusty winds probably Thursday morning will make the roads a bit tricky.

The real issue is temperatures will crash amid howling northwest winds Thursday. Depending on the front's timing, we might make it into the 30s early in the day, then temperatures will fall through the 20s and teens through the day. 

Thursday night will be awful, with continued strong winds and temperatures falling to within a few degrees of zero for most of us. Wind chills should be well below zero.  I'm already planning on hiding under a pile of blankets at home that night. 

After Thursday night, temperatures will sort of warm up a little for the end of the week, but remain well below normal.  

Winter Storm Making Travel Weekend Miserable In U.S., Especially Midwest

A must-vehicle crash amid on Interstate 70 in western
Indiana on Saturday. A huge swath of the Midwest
is under winter storm warnings today as heavy
snow delays travel for many. 

While we here in Vermont await a minor bout of winter weather tomorrow, the same storm is spreading snow over a huge area of the Midwest. 

Since so many people are traveling this holiday weekend, the Scrooge mood has hit early for many. 

The winter storm warnings Saturday stretched from eastern South Dakota to Michigan. 

The relative center of this winter weather zone is Chicago, The windy city serves as a hub for American, United, Frontier, Southwest and Spirit airlines. 

You can imagine the mess.

As of Saturday morning, more than 1,000 flights were canceled at Chicago airports, CBS News reported. I imagine things later got even worse for flights in and out of Chicago   as heavy snow with very poor visibility lasted all afternoon. 

As of 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, FlightAware said the number of flights today canceled at just O'Hare was 1,038.

For the U.S. as a whole, FlightAware said there had been 2,166 flight cancelations and 18,322 delays as of late this afternoon. So if someone you expected to arrive at your house today says it won't happen, they're probably not lying. It's nothing personal. Just the weather.  

Of course, highways are slow, too. As many as 30 vehicles crashed into each other on slick Interstate 70 in western Indiana. Social media is rife with images of cars in ditches and vehicles with smashed and dented fenders, or worse.   

The winter storm warning affected 32 million people and winter weather advisories along the storms edges covered another 20 million, USA Today reported. 

The snow is expected to dwindle off and end by late tonight in places from Chicago west, and during the morning in locations farther east, like northern Indiana and most of Michigan. 

A new winter storm is expected to hit a large swath of the Midwest and Northeast on Tuesday.  

Illinois Disaster Appeal Rejection Shows Once Again Trump Puts Loyalty Above All Else

Flooding in Chicago this past July. Donald Trump is
blocking disaster aid to Illinois, probably mostly
because he doesn't like the state's governor. 

Donald Trump is not liking the Illinois governor, and he's taking it out on flood victims in the state. 

The Trump administration turned down another request from Illinois to help the state recover from severe flash floods in July. That, according to the Washington Post, is despite a recent assessment detailing the the widespread damage and financial losses associated with the disaster. 

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson in a statement tried to paint the Illinois detail as fiscal responsibility. "Gone are the days of rubber stamping FEMA recommendations," Jackson huffed, saying the Trump administration is "committed to empowering and working with State and federal governments to invest in their own resilience before disaster strikes, making response less urgent and recovery less prolonged."

In other words, states must somehow looked into their crystal balls, determine when and what kind of disasters will strike in the future and cough up the millions of dollars they don't have to do these mythical resiliency projects.

Of course, few believe Trump is trying to help Illinois.

First of all, Illinois is a blue state. More importantly, Trump is feuding with Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, because the governor objects to Trump's idea of sending  the National Guard deployment in and around Chicago and legally dubious ICE arrests (some would say kidnappings) of people in Illinois. 

Trump, ever the statesman, keeps insulting Pritzker over his weight  (calling the governor a big fat slob on Wednesday) rather than actually dealing with the governor in a rational way. If we're going to get into body shaming, Trump isn't exactly the most svelte character I've ever seen. 

Things have gotten so ridiculous in Illinois that, in early November, Illinois and Federal Emergency Management Agency officials had to remove personnel who were surveilling flood damage in Chicago neighborhoods.

Why? Because immigration agents were patrolling and conducting raids nearby, according to the Washington Post. 

WaPo goes on:

"The decision to halt the disaster assessment teams' work on Nov. 6 came amid an ongoing immigration crackdown in the city, leaving the coordinating state an agency officials worried that FEMA's efforts could put residents as well as surveyors at risk. 

The shift meant about 10 groups of federal, state, county and local workers had to stop work surveying hundreds of homes that sustained heavy water damage in parts of the city hit hard by recent storms - assessments that help the federal agency document disaster impacts, and ca make a case for why an area may need help paying for recovery." 

The whole thing seems suspicious.

Toward the end of October, FEMA's regional administrator told Homeland Security officials about upcoming surveys in the area, as a heads up to avoid conflicts with Homeland Security's immigration crackdowns in Chicago.

As WaPo explained, "It is unclear why immigration agents the ended up in the same place as emergency personnel. Multiple FEMA employees said there were discussions meant to prevent that from happening."

Instead, as FEMA workers set off into a flood-damaged neighborhood, they suddenly saw ICE vehicles and heard whistles - which is a warning people give when ICE comes into an area

So the assessments weren't done. Which might be part of the excuse as to why Trump keeps rejecting disaster aid for Illinois. 

As if the fine citizen of Illinois would suddenly turn MAGA to keep our Orange Cockwomble happy.   

Winter, Now Re-Established In Vermont, Will Keep Meteorologists On Their Toes

When winter winds returned on Friday, things got a little weird in parts of New England. It snowed in parts of the region, thanks of all things to Lake Huron. 

Satellite view this morning shows bands of snow cover
across southern Vermont and New Hampshire and 
parts of Massachusetts from Great Lakes effect
snows that made it all the way to the 
Atlantic Ocean yesterday. (The snow cover is
those faint streaks of lighter color you see in
the spots I referenced). Photo via Facebook.
National Weather Service/South Burlington

We know that there is always lake effect snows around the Great Lakes, especially this time of year when the relatively warm water contrasts with the cold Canadian air flowing in. 

This time of year, when that contrast is big, some of the snows can make it all the way into New England, but usually as decent snows in western New England mountains and just flurries in the valleys.

As mentioned yesterday, one particularly aggressive band of lake snow originated over Lake Huron, got an extra boost from Lake Ontario and made it all the way to Vermont.

By later yesterday morning, the band got more powerful on its trip into New England. Motorists reported poor visibility and dangerous road conditions along Route 30 in Dorset, Route 11 over the mountains between Manchester and Springfield, Interstate 89 near Sharon and other places.

The dangerous roads and snow squalls from this line continued on through a band across pretty much all of southern New Hampshire. The snow band shifted south during the afternoon, creating bursts of heavy snow across Massachusetts. One of these snow showers created wind gusts to 48 mph as they incredibly headed out to sea.

Snow accumulated to as much as 4 inches in southern New Hampshire and western Massachusetts and 2 inches in Worcester County, Massachusetts. Again, just wild for Great Lakes snow to do that in New England. I'm sure some energy in the atmosphere unrelated to the lakes sustained the snow band, but still!

Back here in Vermont, snow showers coasted the central and northern Green Mountains nicely. The state's perennial snowy spot, Jay Peak, hit the jackpot again. They received eight to ten inches of snow yesterday and last night. 

Jay Peak has had 113 inches of snow this month, which is a record for them. They are about to get more snow, and the rest of us will see some too. 

SNOWY, WINTRY OUTLOOK

Traffic camera image of Route 105 in Jay at about 9 a.m.
this morning. I'm not sure if the guy in the snow-swept
parking lot is getting ready for a backcountry ski
adventure or is discreetly peeing. In any event
this shot shows how wintry it has gotten in
some of Vermont's mountains. 

After a cold, but fairly bright day today, the next storm comes in tomorrow. 

It will be a classic light, but terribly raw and miserable late November/early December festival of snow, then occasional cold, light rain in the valleys, dank, dark skies and in some places, a gusty south wind that will chill you to the bone. 

If tomorrow's weather doesn't depress you, nothing will. There are bright sides to tomorrow's darkness, though. 

There won't be much precipitation of any kind. Rain and melted snow should amount to less than a quarter inch of rain equivalent, with maybe a little more than that. 

Snow accumulation should be less than an inch in the valleys before it changes over to rain. Areas above 2,000 feet in elevation likely won't see any rain at all. And if it does manage to rain on your ski slopes, it won't cause much damage, since the rain will be so light, and it will be barely and only briefly above freezing up there.

After that, another storm -  more of a nor'easter - will threaten on Tuesday. Early indications are the heaviest precipitation will go to our south, but most of Vermont should at least see some snow. And if the path of the storm goes a little further north, we could have a pretty decent snow dump on our hands. 

Then, the first true Arctic cold front of the season might come through Thursday with some snow squalls. And then maybe the first below zero temperatures of the season in Vermont. 

This winter is starting much stronger than most recent ones. That doesn't mean the entire winter will be rough. But the beginning of winter, 2025 kind of harkens back to the "real winters" we had back in the 1960s and 1970s. 

Also, I know long range forecasts beyond a few days are questionable, I still have to leave you with this note: NOAA's latest three to four week outlook calls for mostly below normal temperatures and leans toward above normal precipitation through about Christmas. 

Southeast Asia Floods Kill Hundreds In Another Big Flood Megadisaster

Image of the flooding in Indonesia via Reuters. 

 Deadly floods have encompassed much of Southeast Asia recently, leading to at least 450 deaths, and widespread destruction. 

It's another big event as what is amounting to the 2025 The Year Of The Flood.

As CBC reports:

"Large parts of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have been stricken by cyclone-fueled torrential rain for a week, with a rare tropical storm forming in the Malacca Straight.

Another 46 people were killed by a cyclone in the South Asian island nation of Sri Lanka, authorities said"

The Malacca straight is a narrow band of water between Malaysia and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. 

In Sumatra, 174 people had been confirmed dead as of Friday morning, and 79 others were reported missing. The rain has stopped there, but thousands of families are displaced, the CBC report said. 

In Thailand, 145 people have been reported dead and 3.5 million people have been affected by the flooding. 

In southern and eastern Sri Lanka, a separate tropical storm caused those 56 deaths, mostly in rain-triggered landslides. Twenty-five of the deaths were due to landslides in the mountainous tea growing region of central Sri Lanka, Al Jazeera reported. 

In Vietnam, at least 91 people died in flooding there, as lemonde.fr  reported. The bad weather began on November 16 and continued for more than a week. While some of the water has receded. more rain is heading in. Ominously, a new tropical depression has formed near Vietnam, and that threatens to bring new downpours.  

Southeast Asia is nearing the end of its annual monsoon season.  Before this storm, everything was soggy and wet, and rivers were running high from previous downpours and floods. 

Monsoon season can be destructive any year, but climate change is probably giving things a tragic boost.  With climate change, rainfall is often heavier than it otherwise would be had global temperatures not warmed.  

Videos

News images of flooding Thailand. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Next video is a news account of the flooding in Indonesia. Again, click on this link to view or if you see image below click on that. 

Vermont Drought Recovery Stalls, Hopefully Temporarily

Vermont's improvement from this summer and autumn's 
deep drought stalled in the past week, as only light
amounts of precipitation fell recently. An active
weather pattern coming up might lead to
further improvements, though. 

Vermont's drought conditions are pretty much the same as the previous week, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued Wednesday. 

The Monitor, which usually comes out Thursday but was a day early this week due to Thanksgiving, shows only the slightest glimmer of improvement. 

A small corner of southwest Vermont went from abnormally dry, which is one step below drought, to nothing at all, meaning water levels are sufficient. 

Otherwise, it's all the same as the week before. About 25 percent of the state mostly in the Northeast Kingdom, is still in severe drought. 

Most of the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains are in moderate drought. Most of the rest of the state is abnormally dry. That sliver of southwest Vermont, along with most of the Champlain Valley is out of danger. 

At least things didn't get worse. 

Precipitation was modest in Vermont last week, which explains the lack of change. The weekly report takes into consideration conditions running from last Wednesday to Tuesday. During that period less than a quarter inch of rain and melted snow fell across most of Vermont, though there was more than that in the mountains. 

A week of such light rainfall in late summer or early autumn likely would have worsened the drought, at least a little. But during the week ending on Tuesday, skies were mostly overcast, trees and other plants are now dormant and the weather was generally damp, so there wasn't much evaporation. 

In some places, melting snow added a little to the groundwater. All that means Vermont's drought conditions were able to hold steady.

Elsewhere in the Northeast, drought conditions improved ever so slightly in New Hampshire and Maine, and improved modestly in New York. 

OUTLOOK:

It still looks like we're in an active weather pattern, which means we have frequent chances of precipitation. Moderate amounts of rain fell Wednesday, which will be taken into account with next week's drought monitor, 

The amount of precipitation expected over the next week looks moderate, maybe sort of heavy in southern Vermont, depending on how storm tracks go. Much of the precipitation this coming week will come down as snow.  I'm not entirely sure if that's included in the Drought Monitor, or whether the snow is just "banked" and improves drought conditions when it melts.  

Back To Winter In Vermont As Several Snow Chances (With Rain Thrown In) Coming Up

National Weather Service radar from around 9 this
morning. You can see a band of snow moving
into southern Vermont. That's lake effect,
originating all the way over at Lake Huron.
Bands of snow curving northeastward in
northern Vermont is a sign that a new
disturbance is starting to suppress the lake
effect southward. The disturbance will
generate new snow showers this afternoon. 

The tail ends of big lake effect snows from Lake Ontario made it all the way to Vermont overnight and this morning, introducing winter back to the Green Mountain State after a short break. 

One snow band put down a dusting of snow in northern Vermont last night, with maybe a couple inches in the mountains. It looks like Jay Peak managed to collect at least two or three inches of snow overnight.

A more impressive snow band was moving into parts of southern Vermont this morning. 

It actually originated all the way over in Lake Huron, got new energy crossing Lake Ontario, and moved all the way across New York through Vermont.

 It looked like that narrow band was somewhere near Manchester as of 9 a.m.  Maybe ski areas like Bromley are getting a little bonus snow this morning. 

That snow band then to some extent reached across southern New Hampshire all the way to southwestern Maine. That is an impressively long trip for a lake effect from Lake Huron! 

The wind is shifting, so Vermont will lose the lake effect snows later this morning. You could see on radar the remnants of one streak of snow over northern Vermont  curving northeastward. They're responding to another weather disturbance diving in.  That will keep the snow showers going all day today. 

Some of this afternoon's  snow showers, especially over the mountains and in eastern Vermont north of White River Junction could be briefly heavy, especially inland from the Connecticut River.  

Most of us will only see a dusting to an inch of snow. As always, expect a little more than that in the Green Mountains. 

NEXT STORM

Next up is kind of a mixed, and not particularly memorably little storm set to come through Sunday and early Monday. It'll probably be a snow to rain kind of thing, with not much accumulation. Not all that much rain, either to be honest.  Rain and melted snow from this next hiccup would only amount to a quarter inch or maybe even less. 

Snow accumulation for most of us would again be near an inch. 

THE NEXT, NEXT STORM

The next storm in the series looks like it could get interesting. If we get this storm, it would come through Tuesday and into Wednesday. 

It would be a nor'easter, and if the path of this thing is just right, we could be looking at a pretty good sized snowstorm. At least for some of us. It's only Friday, so we don't have a good bead yet on how close to the coast it would come. 

There's the potential that at least part of Vermont cold get a good dump of snow.  We don't know for sure yet which part of the state would get a lot of snow. Maybe none of us will get much. 

Stay tuned! 

Vermont Appeals Trump Disaster Aid Denial, But Good Luck Convincing Trump We Should Get It

The administration of Vermont Gov. Phil Scott has 
appealed Trump's rejection of disaster aid 
stemming from flooding in the Northeast 
Kingdom this past July 10. Nice to see Scott
making an effort, but I doubt Trump
will change his mind. He's too transactional.

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott this past week has appealed the Trump administration's rejected of disaster assistance to help people and towns trashed by Northeast Kingdom flooding this past July 10. 

Given Donald Trump's track record, good luck with that. 

Anyhoo, a release from Scott's office said:

"The Governor's appeal points to the cost of infrastructure repairs under the Federal Emergency Management Agency requirements as an aggravating factor that should be considered. It further outlines the cumulative economic effect on the state and communities that have seen catastrophic floods in each of the last three years."

State officials said after the initial disaster declaration request, they found additional damage that wasn't found earlier. "This information significantly increases financial burden for repairs which we believe strengthens our appeal,"  Scott said. 

The July 10 storms focused on parts of the Northeast Kingdom, especially the area in and around Sutton. That tiny town alone suffered more than $1 million in damage. Federal assessors found more than $1.8 million in overall damage. That exceeds the minimum threshold for a public assistance disaster declaration. 

A federal disaster declaration would mean Federal Emergency Management Agency would cover the costs of repairing infrastructure and start new projects that would minimize the risk of additional flooding. 

When the federal disaster assistance was initially denied in October, Scott initially said that Vermont wouldn't appeal, given the recent track record of Trump turning down appeals. But it looks like Scott changed his mind, and submitted the appeal. 

The prospects of Trump changing his mind about Vermont disaster aid is iffy at best. He regards disaster aid as transactional, and tends to support aid to red states but not blue ones. 

Vermont is among the bluest of the blue states. Scott is a Republican, but there is no love lost between the governor and Trump. 

I don't think the Scott administration is going to get anywhere with this appeal. But I give him an A for effort. 

Not A White Thanksgiving In Vermont, Which Is Fine, But December Could Be Snowy (Results May Vary)

Latest snow forecast for the next couple of days. National
Weather Service has backed off a little on how much
snow wil fall in the Green Mountains. That heavier
snow you see in New York is lake effect 

The other day I brought up that silly children's song about going over the river and through the woods to grandmothers house. 

The premise of the song is that everyone was going to have a Thanksgiving feast at grandmother's house - who once again was stuck with all the work of cooking, hosting, cleaning etc. 

Some of the lyrics in that song go, "The horse knows the way to carry the sleigh/through the white and drifted snow."

Which begs the question, what snow?

We all know it can snow around Thanksgiving, but is this holiday that snowy?  

The ever-helpful National Weather Service in South Burlington has the answer, which is: Not really.

They looked back over the past 70 Thanksgivings and found that at least in Burlington, in 44 out of those 70 Thanksgivings, there was no snow on the ground and none fell from the sky. Five Thanksgivings started the day with no snow, but at least a little fell from the sky that day. Eighteen Thanksgivings had one to three inches on the ground and only three had a snow depth of more than three inches.

So most of the time, that sleigh would have been worthless on Thanksgiving, at least around Burlington. Other parts of Vermont, of course, might have more snow on this holiday. 

Plus, I'm being geographically narcissistic. Putting on my Captain Obvious hat, the setting for "Over The Hill And Through The Woods" could be anywhere it snows, not just here in Vermont.

There are places in the U.S. that could use a sleigh today. There's still plenty of snow on the ground in much of Minnesota, thanks to a storm a couple days ago. Blizzard conditions swept the Upper Peninsula of Michigan yesterday.  Lake affects snows are burying some shoreline communities around the Great Lakes today.

VERMONT FORECAST

At least in Burlington, this is going to be another one of those Thanksgivings with no snow.  It'll be partly sunny, and blustery, and there might be a few cold, light rain showers blowing by. 

Tonight, it will be cold enough for snow showers, so we have a shot at being the sixth Thanksgiving with no snow, but maybe some in the air. We'll see.

The snow showers will hit the northern and central Green Mountains tonight and tomorrow. Forecasters have backed off a little on accumulations. Still, the ski areas could pick up a few inches of snow, which is nice. Valleys should get just a dusting to an inch or two. 

We're still looking at another modest storm on Sunday which will probably send a little more rain through Vermont, with maybe some snow way up high.  

The weather pattern is still leaning somewhat toward cold, and stormy in December, at least according to NOAA. Although long range forecasts are notoriously sketchy, which means I can't promise anything. 

So no promises yet on whether we'll see a white Christmas or not.  

Mount Washington Helps Create Spectacular "Mothership" Cloud

Colby Morris took this photo of a spectacular lenticular
cloud over Mount Washington, New Hampshire Tuesday.

There's a photo floating around social media these days of what looks like a mothership about to grab New Hampshire's Mount Washington and take it to, I don't know, it's home planet light years away. 

For once, the photo is not AI. It's the real deal, showing a spectacular lenticular cloud over New England's highest peak.  You can see the photo in this post. 

Feel free to click on it to make it bigger and easier to see. 

The photo was taken by Colby Morris, a Mesonet and Information Systems Technician, who spotted the cloud at around 8 a.m. Tuesday while he was on his way to Crawford Notch. The observatory posted the photo on their Facebook page. 

Many people who saw the photo on Facebook had the same reaction I did. Here are some of the comments:

"Show us on the doll where the aliens touched you."

"That's clearly a cloud obstructing an alien landing on the summit. We saw the exact same thing in 'Close Encounters of the Third Kind.'

"Beam me up, Scotty."

"Is this the portal back to reality? You know the dimension where humans actually act like human beings? Pretty please??!"

Unfortunately, the cloud is not that portal back to reality. We're stuck in our Earthly madness. 

Mount Washington Observatory photographed the 
same cloud a bit earlier than Morris did, at sunrise
yesterday The bottom of that lenticular cloud is
on the left with the sun illuminating a ring at 
the bottom of the cloud. 

What hovered over Mount Washington is a lenticular cloud, which are actually kind of common near mountains. This one was just  much larger, uniquely shaped and more spectacular than most.  

 As the Mount Washington Observatory explains:

"They usually form when a relatively strong flow of stable air flows into a barrier, most commonly a mountain range, and is forced upward. As the air ascents, it expands and cools. If the air has sufficient moisture, this cooling may be enough to cause condensation to occur, and therefore generate clouds. 

Because the air is stable, however, it will resist this vertical motion and seek to descent to its former level. As it descends, it will contract and warm, causing the newly formed cloud to evaporate. What is unique about these clouds is that they are very dynamic, and while each individual air parcel is undergoing the cycle of cooling and condensing and warming and evaporating, visually, the cloud appears to be standing still."

The edges of the clouds look smooth because the strong winds associated with them sculpt the cloud. That smooth appearance is why the clouds have that "lenticular" name. 

This type of cloud appears here in Vermont and elsewhere in northern New England a few times a year. They can form any time there is some sort of mountain range in the vicinity and the atmospheric conditions are right. 

The atmosphere around Mount Washington Tuesday was conducive to a particularly wild standing wave cloud.  

Lenticular clouds are not dangerous to those of us on the ground. We're not going to be sucked up into an alien spaceship. But they are dangerous to aircraft. They're a sign of severe, risky turbulence. When pilots seen these clouds, they try to avoid the area.  

Vermont Thanksgiving Weather Looking Pretty Safe. Elsewhere, And In Past Years, Not So Much

It'll be a blustery, but otherwise pretty tame Thanksgiving
in Vermont.  But between Thursday night and Saturday
morning, most of us will see at least a little snow. 
Northern Vermont ski areas could get a good half
a foot of snow. 

It's steady as she goes with the forecast for today's pre-Thanksgiving travel, and the big day tomorrow. The forecast hasn't changed much since yesterday. 

Vermont is solidly in the warm air ahead of a cold front today.  After a showery, rather balmy overnight., it's more of the same today. 

It could rain at any time today, but it'll be off and on.  We'll have intervals of dry-ish weather in between the raindrops. Highs will be up in the 50s, which will be the warmest day in quite awhile. 

Behind the cold front on Thanksgiving, it still looks like it will be blustery. A slot of dry air behind the front will give us some sunshine and fairly mild temperatures through roughly midday, as it looks now.

As the afternoon wears on, clouds should fill in and we'll start getting into some valley rain and mountain snow showers. 

The tricky part of the Thanksgiving travel weekend starts tomorrow night. Snow showers will take over. It'll be a combination of the tail end of lake effects snow off Lake Ontario, some weak weather disturbances in the strong, cold west and northwest winds, and those winds going up and over the Green Mountains to trigger more snow showers. 

Almost all of us except some people in the lower Connecticut River Valley will get at least a little snow.  In most places, snowfall between Thanksgiving night and Saturday morning will come out to a dusting to three inches. 

The three inches will be mostly in northern Vermont. 

Some of the ski areas in central and northern Vermont could get four to as much as eight inches of snow out of this. That'll replace some of the snow that will have melted today. 

The weather will be decidedly less tame over in New York State, near the lakes. Lake effect snows blasting off the lakes could dump 10 to 20 inches of snow in the general area near Watertown and south of Buffalo. 

Winds will be more fierce that in Vermont out that way. Over here in the Green Mountain States, the highest wind gusts will probably top out at around 35 mph. Near the Great Lakes, they could reach as high as 55 mph. 

Lake Erie is also expected to experience something called a seiche. That's when west winds are so strong that it tilts the lake. Water levels will go down on the west end of the lake near ?   but increase near Buffalo, where a lake flood advisory is in effect. 

Later in the weekend, toward Sunday, another storm is scheduled to arrive. There's still some questions as to whether it will be mostly rain, mostly snow or some schmutzy combination. 

WILD WEATHER THANKSGIVINGS

The weather is going pretty easy on us here in Vermont this Thanksgiving, but we've seen some tremendous extremes in past Thanksgiving weekends.

Some examples: 

Frigid Thanksgiving 1938

Thanksgiving fell on November 24 that year. That was the start of some of the most wintry weather on record for November. A storm that dropped a few inches of snow was departing on Thanksgiving. Within two days, it was 3 below in Burlington, which is still the coldest temperature on record for November. 

It was even colder elsewhere. Rutland got down to 10 below. St. Johnsbury was 13 below. 

Snowy Thanksgiving, 1943

Snow was deep on November 25, 1943 across much of Vermont, as a storm on November 22-23 left an impressive layer of winter. Burlington had 11 inches of snow, which is pretty good, but nothing compared to the Northeast Kingdom. 

As the Vermont Weather Book tells us, Bloomfield had 31.5 inches, Newport 29.5 inches, and Northfield, 22.4 inches. 

Great Storm of 1950

The most dramatic Thanksgiving weekend weather in Vermont came in 1950. 

Thanksgiving, 1950 (November 23) was quiet and cold, but Vermont, and the entire eastern third of the U.S. was gearing up for one of the most ferocious and widespread storms on record.

The Great Storm of 1950 killed 353 people in 22 states as the storm created an extreme blizzard in Ohio, West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, and record-setting winds in the Northeast. The storm caused $66.7 million in damage, which is right around $900 million in 2025 dollars. 

The storm deposited the storm 57 inches of snow in West Virginia and 44 inches in Ohio. 

Here in Vermont and New England, it was the wind. Gusts reached 72 mph in Burlington. The wind was especially destructive in Addison County.  At the time, the Addison Independent said 70 percent of houses between Pittsford and Vergennes had at least some roof damage, with some houses losing almost their entire roofds.

Damage to Addison County farms amounted to $840,000, which is $11.6 million in 2025 dollars, Damage to Middlebury College amounted to $150,000, which is $2 million in today's dollars.

Thanksgiving Snowstorm, 1971

The snowiest actual Thanksgiving Day came on November 25 that year. Twenty inches of snow fell on Mount Mansfield, Waitsfield and Montpelier. Burlington managed 8.6 inches. 

Record Cold Thanksgiving, 2018

Thanksgiving, 2018 was the coldest on record. Burlimgton only got up to 14 degrees that day, November 21. Montpelier only got up to 9 above. 

The next morning, it was minus 1 in Burlington, the earliest subzero temperature on record. That's particularly impressive since climate change was taking hold by then. It's much harder to achieve record lows than it once was.

I hope your Thanksgiving is memorable. And be thankful the holiday this year won't be memorable because of the weather. 

 

Tornadoes Near Houston Wrecks Homes, Part Of "Second Tornado Season"

Menacing clouds about to put down a tornado 
yesterday near Klein, Texas. 

Tornadoes swept through suburbs northwest of Houston Monday, leaving homes smushed under trees, roofs ripped up and walls collapsed. 

Surprisingly and luckily, nobody was seriously injured.  Other severe storms also swept through other parts of the South. A couple more tornadoes might spin up around Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia today. 

Peak tornado season is usually in the spring and early summer.  Very muggy, warm air flows north that time of year, it flows into large storms, collides with colder air from the north, and you get tornado outbreaks. 

The jet stream screaming over the U.S. adds energy for these tornadoes. 

Tornado season fades over the summer because the storms that add the kind of spin in the air that you need for a swarms of twisters. The jet stream retreats into Canada. If you don't strong storms and not much spin, you don't get many tornadoes. 

Right now, there is a second tornado season going on. You wouldn't think so, given that the forces of winter are taking over. Tornadoes don't like cold air, so why are there tornadoes spinning down there.

But now that we're into the cold season, we can get strong storms again. The jet stream is now back down in the United States. That can generate nice strong storms. The kind that add spin to the air.  The kind that can pull warm, muggy air out of the Gulf of Mexico. The kind that can manufacture tornadoes. 

Of course, the late autumn early winter tornado season isn't anything like you'd get in the spring. That warm, humid air can't make much headway. Not with all that Arctic air coming down from the Great White North of Canada. 

So, you can get November and December tornadoes. 

Here's another twist, pardon the pun, since we're talking about tornadoes, the second twister season might be getting worse, thanks to climate change. 

Remember that sticky, yucky hot air that tornadoes need? Climate change is allowing bigger surges of that air that can penetrate further north. That can lead to more widespread cold season tornadoes. 

November is now on average Alabama's third busiest tornado, even busier than May, the Washington Post informs us.  March and April, and November are Alabama's big twister months. In tornado alley November is Oklahoma's fourth busiest twister month.

Throughout history there have been deadly tornado outbreaks in the final two months of the year. But trend lines might be getting worse. 

An example of our stormy late year future might be December, 2021. A tornado outbreak killed more than 80 people in the southeastern United States on Dec. 10-11 of that year. One of those tornadoes basically leveled the city of Mayfield, Kentucky. 

Just days later, on December 15, 2021, a massive derecho with a swarm of 120 tornadoes, including 63 in Iowa alone.  

As for this year, the next chance of severe weather after today will run in the South this weekend and early next week. It's too soon to tell how extensive the bad weather will become, if it develops at all. 

VIDEO

Firefighters on a call in Cyr Fair, Texas take shelter in a home's garage as an apparent tornado passes very close by. Note the sudden wind shift halfway through the video. Video is from a camera on a firetruck. Click on this link to view, or if you see the link below, click on that. 

Warm Air Already Over-Performing In Some Spots In Vermont Enjoy, Won't Last Long

This month's snow caught us off guard before we put
deck furniture away. The warm ground allowed the 
snow to mostly melt (see background) but no warmth
beneath the deck allowed the snow to stay. We're hoping
warm weather today and tomorrow will melt the
deck snow so we can properly
store all the summer stuff. 

Sorry for the late start with the weather today, as I am a little under the weather. No worries though, just a bit of a high pressure system in my sinuses. I should be better in no time. 

So, it's warm out there for a change.  At least compared to what we've had to deal with. In some areas, it's even warmer than we thought it would be, which is a nice switch. 

The forecast high in Burlington today was 47 degrees. That would make today the hottest day since November 8. But the forecast is off a bit. That's because it was already 48 degrees as of 10 a.m. 

The milder air is really funneling up the Champlain Valley, which explains the toasty air there. In the rest of Vermont, it looks like temperatures will end up in the 40s this afternoon, close to the forecast highs. 

It's nice to see the last of the snow finally leaving my yard up in St. Albans after being there since November 10. 

Tonight will be balmy, too, at least by late November standards. I wouldn't exactly rush to put the air conditioners back on the windows. But still, a low of 40 degrees isn't bad for the time of year.  

The first wave of rain will come through tonight. Sorry, early season skiers!  It'll only amount to a quarter inch or so, give or take, so nothing to worry about. 

Tomorrow will bring us the peak of the "heat wave" as readings will get up into the 50s in many places. A 60 degree reading in one of the warmest towns isn't out of the question, but don't hold your breath. 

Although a shower might come at any time Wednesday, we'll probably have a lull during the day. 

The warm air can't last forever, especially with the late autumn/early winter weather pattern we find ourselves in this year. 

The cold front will come through before dawn Thanksgiving, throwing another band of rain showers at us, then shutting off the warm air. Although the colder air will come in aloft quickly, it'll take time to make it down to where we live.

So Thanksgiving itself will be OK, with clouds, a little sun, some blustery winds and highs near 40 or so. 

The cold air will really come in Thanksgiving night and Friday. Lake effect snows off Lake Ontario will crank up big time.  So big that some of that snow should hit the central and northern Green Mountains for a time.  Even the valleys will get a little snow.  The ski areas, though should get a bit of recovery snow - maybe three to six inches. 

During Friday, the lake effect snows will shift southward, so the southern Green Mountains might pick up a little snow, too.

Saturday looks cold, too, but the snow showers should be drying up by then. 

The overall weather pattern heading well into December looks active and mostly cold. The next shot at snow and rain will come Sunday and Monday.  That storm might go a little to our west, which is why I'm thinking mixed precipitation on that one. 

We'll have more info once we get closer to that event, which I know you've seen me say a zillion times already. But it's true that forecasts more than a few days out can get a little questionable.  

Will AI Fight Climate Change Or Make It Much Worse? Hot Debate On The Topic Now

AI is obviously the Next Big Thing.

Illustration from Appen 

Like it or not, it's invading all aspects of our lives. And of course, AI will have an enormous effect on other Big Things. Like climate change.  

Whether or not AI is good or bad, there was certainly a lot of interest in it at the recently concluded COP30 sessions.

That's the big annual UN shindig where countries from around the world try to come up with agreements on how to fix climate change. 

Usually, including this year, they didn't make much progress. And, the United States sat this one out all because our Glorious Leader says climate change is a hoax. 

But back to AI and climate. 

The Associated Press said they counted at least 24 sessions related to AI during the conference. 

They included using AI to help neighboring cities share energy, and a ceremony for the first AI for Climate Action Award for a project on water scarcity and climate variability in Laos.

All the tech bros at the converse are telling anyone that will listen that AI will solve climate change. Or at least make it less bad.  Or maybe help us deal with it better. They give examples. For instance, it can increase the efficiency of electric grids. 

AI can help farmers more accurately predict whether to save their crops. It can design buildings, roads and other infrastructure to withstand ever-increasing weather extremes. 

AI can also directly fight climate change. It's being used to detect methane leaks. Methane is an even more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. 

As NPR reported back in January, 2024 that methane leaks were seldom found and monitored. Now, scientists and companies use AI daily to find methane emissions by by interpreting enormous amounts of satellite images.   

That data is now used by the United Nations to verify the accuracy of corporation and government reports on methane emissions. 

Forest managers use AI to detect forest fires before they get out of hand. The technology can also ensure conditions are right for controlled burns to prevent future huge forest fires 

These are just some examples of how AI could save the world from a climate catastrophe, goes the theory. Or something like that. 

OR IS AI KILLING US 

It takes a TON of energy to run the data centers that keep AI afloat. So maybe AI will just make climate change even worse.

Per the Associated Press: 

"Climate groups, however, are sounding the alarm about AI's growing environmental impact, with its surging needs for electricity and water for powering searches and data centers They say an AI boom without guardrails will only push the world farther off track from goals set by 2015 Paris Agreement to slow global warming."

We'll probably blow past that 1.5 degree Celsius goal with or without sincere climate action. But AI might make us go far beyond that goal.

AI relies on data centers that use tremendous amounts of electricity, Data centers accounted for 1.5 percent of the world's electricity consumption in 2024. Since 2017, electricity consumption in data centers has grown by 12 percent, more than four times faster than the total rate of electricity consumption. 

Since a pretty big share of electricity is still generated via fossil fuel generation, data centers contribute to climate change. 

According to cornell.edu:

"Cornell researchers have used advanced data analytics - and, naturally, some AI, too - to create a state-by-state look at that environmental impact. The team found that, by 2030, the current rate of AI growth would annually put 24 to 44 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the emissions equivalent of adding 5 to 10 million cars to U.S. roadways. 

It would also drain 731 to 1,125 million cubic meters of water per year - equal to the annual household water usage of 6 to 10 million Americans. The cumulative effect would put the AI industry's net-zero emissions targets out of reach."

Sounds really bad. But then again, maybe not that bad?

Says cornell.edu again:

"On the upside, the study also outlines an actionable roadmap that would use smart siting, faster grid decarbonization and operational efficiency to cut these impacts by approximately 73% (carbon dioxide) and 86% (water) compared with worst-case scenarios."

So, the bottom line is AI is maybe one of the biggest new thing of all big new things we've ever had. AI could let us swim or make us sink. 

Only the future will tell us. And the future might come sooner than we think. 

First Warmer Than Averages Temperatures In 2 Weeks Coming To Vermont, But Don't Bring Out The Swimsuits

Typically blah November this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont with still some snow on the ground. 
After a long cool stretch, we might have a couple
of warmer than normal days coming up. 

 Today has a shot at being the first nominally warmer than average day in Vermont - at least as measured in Burlington -since November 8. 

I haven't been able to check how long it's been since we've had that long a stretch of below normal readings. But this stretch comes with caveats. 

You've heard me say this a million times already but I still have to point out this the "new normal," which is based on the average temperatures between 1990 and 2020.  

By those decades, climate change had already taken hold, so "normal" temperatures these days are above what we would have expected through most of the 20th century. 

Had this November occurred in say, 1980, some days in the stretch from November 8 to today would have been slightly warmer than average. 

Even though we're basing comparisons on the "new normal" this month has provided us with the first sustained chillier than average spell in a long time. This will probably be the coolest month relative to average since at least November, 2023, but more likely since January, 2022.  

Only four of the last 24 months have been cooler than our climate changed new warmer average.  

So, a November that was only a little cooler than the historical average seemed frigid to us climate change warriors. 

OUTLOOK

Now, we get to enjoy three or so sort of warmer than average days coming up before it turns chillier again. 

Of course, warmer than average isn't all that toasty for late November. 

Today might or might not get above average for the date. It depends on how fast this morning's thick overcast and patchy fog lifts into partly sunny skies. If it clears up by late morning or noon, we could get up to 40 or a little more. If it stays cloudy, we're probably stuck in the 30s. 

Tomorrow, we'll get into some south winds ahead of the next storm. That storm won't cause a lot of havoc for us, but will bring quite a squirt of warm air toward us.  Many of us will get into the mid-40s tomorrow, and into the low and mid 50s Wednesday. 

We'll have to watch Wednesday, as there could be some surprises with the temperature. If things work out just right, we could have readings near 60 degrees.

The storm will bring two waves of rain through Vermont. One Tuesday night, one late Wednesday night and early on the day on Thanksgiving. The rain won't be especially heavy, but it will reach even the mountain summits. 

A cold front will come through early on Thanksgiving Day and we'll get into some blustery weather.  Thanksgiving itself won't be too cold amid the scattered rain and mountain snow showers. The weather shouldn't get in the way for you to get  over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house. Or wherever the hell you're going. 

Any rain showers in the valleys will flip to snow Thursday evening.  There won't be much accumulation, except in the mountains. But still, there might be some not so great road conditions here and there Thanksgiving night. So if you're blasting your F-250 through the mountain roads Thursday night, just remember you're not invincible. 

Is getting up way before dawn on Black Friday to wait in cold, windy parking lots to barge into stores for blockbuster deals still a thing?  If it is, bundle up if you're into that sort of adventure. It'll indeed be cold and windy with snowflakes blasting through the air. 

The not-terribly extreme cold snap will be brief, lasting through Saturday night.Then it looks like it will briefly warm up Sunday and Monday as another modest storm comes through. 

After that, chances are we'll get into an extended cold spell again in December. Not sure on that yet, as long range forecasts are sometimes a little shady. But for the first time in years, we might have two consecutive truly cooler than average months in years. 

Even so, climate change rages on. Going forward, most months will be warmer than that your parents used to experience. 

Could A Small But Rapidly Disintegrating Antarctic Glacier Climate Change Danger Signal?

Hektoria glacier in Antarctica was largely reduced
to debris ice after it abruptly retreated at a record pace.
Photo by Naomi Ochwat

When you think of glaciers, and how they melt, you probably picture a slow, drip, drip, and maybe a little stream or river running out of the edge of it. 

You'd think it would take years, even decades for most of a glacier to wilt or disappear under pressure from climate change. 

But one glacier in Antarctica, the Hektoria Glacier, is breaking speed records for eroding, says a team of researchers led by Naomi Ochwat, a University of Colorado glaciologist.

Per the Washington Post;

"More than five miles of glacial ice in Antarctica vanished in only two months, retreating 10 times as fast as the previous record, with possible implications for the stability of other glaciers and the pace of sea-level rise on a warming planet."

 Hektoria Glacier is on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula, and is pretty small compared to most glaciers in Antarctica. It'sabout the size of Philadelphia.  The peninsula is that finger of land that comes off Antarctica and points toward South America, like a frigid finger seeking out warmth away from the Antarctic ice cap. 

But the fact that it retreated so fast makes scientists wonder about other, much bigger glaciers. Can they, too, disintegrate as fast as Hektoria? Was Hektoria a canary in a coal mine, or since this is Antarctica, a penguin in a coal mine?

That would be a problem, as glaciers that are on land add to global sea level rise as they melt. A rapid melt might accelerate those rising sea levels beyond what many scientists already expect.

 It's already bad enough, as storms are increasingly bringing sometimes serious storm surges to coastlines. We also already have "sunny day floods" when tides are particularly high when the pull of the moon is just right. 

If all of Antarctica's ice melted, sea levels would rise by about 190 feet. Of course, much of Antarctica's ice is here to stay, but even if a small percentage its glaciers go bye-bye, sea coasts worldwide would be in big, big trouble. 

Here's how the Hektoria Glacier disintegrated, as WaPo tells us

"Heckoria is a tidewater glacier, meaning it flows across land before ending in the sea. After rising temperatures reduced the amount of sea ice in the bay abutting the glacier, waves broke down ice fastened to the coastline that had protected Hektoria. 

And, without that buffer, the floating end of the glacier began cracking and shedding icebergs into the ocean."

Once the glacier lost its floating portion, the rest of it thinned, and a gently sloping plain underneath the glacier let ocean water to seep in. The ice bobbed up with the water getting beneath it, so it broke up quickly. 

As usual with these things, there's disagreement over whether this is a one-off or if many other glaciers are on the brink of collapsing. 

There's something called the grounding zone. It's the spot beneath the glacier's ice where the ground ends and it starts to float on ocean water. 

The scientists looking into this don't exactly know where the Hektoria Glacier grounding zone is. If the grounding zone is further inland than the researchers figure, the glacier ice was already on water, making it more prone to breaking up. 

Ochwat said seismic sensors detected a bunch of little earthquakes when Hektoria was in retreat and falling apart. That probably means the ice was resting on bedrock. "Because that ice is touching the Earth, we get earthquakes," she said. 

The Washington Post said Ochwat is going to look at other Antarctic glaciers to see if they're also on slick, shallow beds that are vulnerable to fast retreats. 

The reason that people are worried about other glaciers is, of course, climate change. 

As CNN tells us:

"Hektoria's retreat was heavily influenced by climate change (Ockwat) said. The loss of sea ice in the ocean next to Hektoria, believed to have been driven by ocean warmth, allowed wave swells to reach the fast ice and break it up, leaving the glacier exposed to ocean forces."

As sea ice continues to decline due to climate change, more glaciers might be poised to fall apart like Hektoria did. 

Hektoria is "a smaller cousin to some truly gigantic - I mean the size of the island of Britain - glaciers in Antarctica that could conceivably go through the same process, as this whole evolution of the ice sheets on Earth evolves with global warming," Bethan Davies, a glacial geologist at Newcastle University told CNN. 

 There's another glacier in Antarctica, the Thwaites Glacier, which some overwroughtly call the "Doomsday Glacier" contributes 4% of overall sea level rise. Another one the Pine Island Glacier is Antarctica's fastest melting glacier. 

The bottom line: Antarctica makes climatologists nervous, and this new knowledge isn't exactly Zoloft  for scientist's climate change anxiety. 

We need to make sure scientists keep studying the hell out of Antarctica and its ice and its melt rate. What goes on in Antarctica doesn't stay in Antarctica.   

A Little Snow Today In Vermont, Then A Short Mild Interval Until Thanksgiving

Some puffy clouds behind the trees on a Saturday that
gave us a chance to see some rare November Vermont sun

 The sun came out Saturday afternoon which was a nice diversion from the usual Vermont cloudy skies. 

The overcast has returned and as of 8:30 this morning, some light snow was getting ready to move in. 

Relax, though, this won't be a biggy. Light, occasional snow will come down today and tonight, and some of that snow will probably mix with a few cold rain drops. 

Accumulations will end up being a dusting for most of us, maybe an inch in a few places. Some of the ski areas could grab two, three, maybe even four inches. 

After that, we're in for a "warm" spell, but that's relative. Temperatures will be close to normal, with a spike to above normal readings on Wednesday. That's a change from most of this month. Saturday was the 14th day in a row in which it was cooler than average in Burlington. 

By "warmer" I only mean highs with a few degrees of 40 on Monday and Tuesday.  Nights will be mild, too. They'll stay in the mid and upper 20s for most of us, and in the low to mid 30s in the Champlain Valley. I know that seems chilly, but we're knocking on the door of December. You can't expect much. 

Snow is moving back in today but it will be light.
However, a few inches might pile up in the 
mountains by tomorrow morning. 

A modest storm will affect us Tuesday night and Wednesday, but it won't affect your plans for Thanksgiving travel much. 

Mostly because it will almost all come down as rain. That's a bummer for the ski areas, but the roads won't be glare ice, anyway. 

We won't get all that much rain, either, maybe a quarter to a third of an inch. There's still room for forecast adjustments, so it might end up being slightly different than that, but you get the picture. 

Thanksgiving itself will probably be blustery. A cold front will have come through early in the day. The cold air will sort of lag behind the front a bit. So we'll end up with average daytime temperatures, something close to 40 degrees. The wind will blast out of the west with gusts to 30 oe 35 mph.  A few scattered rain and snow showers will blow through from time to time. 

The northern and central Green Mountains have a shot at several inches of snow Thursday night and Friday as lake effect snow and somewhat moist west winds generate some pretty good snow showers in the high elevations 

Low elevations should have lighter snow showers Thanksgiving night and Friday. 

Enjoy the lull in weather excitement. It's still looking like the weather pattern will become rather volatile as we get into December. That means lots of potential storms to watch. To make things interesting, the first blast of true Arctic air looks to come into the U.S. around the first of the month. 

So far, at least, the worst of the frigid air looks like it might mostly stay to our west - hitting the Rockies and Plains hardest.