It's June, So Let's Talk About Snow!

They were skiing at Killington, Vermont right up
through yesterday, when the resort finally 
closed for the season.

 We have a couple little tidbits involving snow, or things that remind us of snow in the news today. It's June, the perfect month to discuss snow, right?  

We'll go distant first, then zoom in on the local

MONTANA SNOW

Way up at 10,000 feet in elevation, near the Montana/Wyoming border, there's a ski area called Beartooth Basin, which often offers summer skiing.  It's rough hewn, basically back country skiing with a lift, but it's a unique situation.

Beartooth Basin decided not to open this summer. There wasn't enough snow to sustain the operation. Then, of course, a massive snowstorm hit on Memorial Day weekend. 

The high elevation Beartooth Highway on the Montana/Wyoming border was closed for days afterward because of six-foot drifts. Crews couldn't really get into clear the snow due to a high avalanche risk, reports Cowboy State Daily.

Beartooth Highway is sort of a mega version of Route 108 through Smugglers Notch. The highway reaches an elevation as high as 10,900 feet. It closes in the fall and usually reopens in late spring, much like Smugglers Notch.

Crews trying to clear high elevation Beartooth Highway
of snow in Montana and Wyoming June 3.

The Montana high elevation road is normally open by Memorial Day, but not this year.  At last report, it still hadn't opened.

Beartooth Basin still doesn't look like it will open this summer, either. Despite all the new snow, it's too late to shift gears and open up.  

KILLINGTON SNOW

 No, I assure you that it didn't not snow in Vermont this weekend. The only powder we had was the huge amounts of pollen in the air that has created a yellow haze and left all of our cars yellow as well.

But, Killington was open and skiing until yesterday. It was the latest in the spring the resort closed since 1997, when it closed on June 22.

The spectacle was a little strange, as skiers zigzagged down a slope with still deep snow against a gorgeous backdrop of a summertime Vermont green landscape. 

The late closing this year had everything to do with Killington's snowmaking prowess and not weather conditions. After all, the winter was not especially cold, despite subzero weather in January. Spring was among the warmest on record. 

The resort managed to pile  up the snow on the trail to a depth of 30 feet before the spring that got underway. 

When Killington stayed open late in 1997, it had been a remarkably cool spring, which helped maintain the snow the resort had made through the winter. 

NOR'EASTERS OF SORTS 

When we think about nor'easters in New England, we think big snowstorm.  And now we have the potential for two storms that will be very much like weak nor'easters.

Don't worry, it isn't going to snow.  And temperatures as these things pass by will only be a little cooler than normal. And it might rain. 

In the summer, we don't see huge temperature contrasts like we do in the winter. Without these huge contrasts, storm systems can't get really strong (unless they're tropical storms, which is a whole other issue)

Without the ability to get strong, two relatively weak low pressure systems will end up running up the New England coast. One on Thursday, one on Sunday. 

Both storms will dump rain somewhere in New England. 

Like wintertime nor'easters, it's still hard to predict how much moisture will work into Vermont, so there's still some questions about how much rain will fall. Right now, it looks like the Green Mountain State will be under the threat of showers both Thursday and Sunday.  But it doesn't look like we'll have any blockbuster rains. 

By the way, technically there might be snow. Way, way, overhead. Often, precipitation starts out as snow many, many thousands of feet overhead even in the summer. That will probably happen with these little storms. But that snow will change to rain on the way down well before it hits even summit levels of the Vermont mountains. 

 

Vermont "Pollen Storm" As Alex Becomes Tropical Storm AFTER Doing Its Damage

A breezy late Saturday afternoon yesterday in St. Albans, 
Vermont. That slight haze you see is almost surely
a "pollen storm" of sorts that bothered allergy sufferers.

No question Saturday was a beautiful day, aside from scattered showers and thunderstorms north of Route 2 and east of the Champlain Valley. 

It was bright, largely sunny and breezy. What's not to love?

Allergy sufferers would like a word. 

The wind and dry air had the pollen swirling in the breezes. You could actually see a slight greyish or yellowish haze in the air, especially as northwest winds picked up in the afternoon.  Saturday was a BIG pollen day in Vermont. 

I'm not usually a big allergy sufferer, but I was coughing and sneezing, and my nose was basically Niagara Falls. Especially when I ventured outside into my gardens in the late afternoon.

Interestingly, nipping at a couple beers while in the garden seemed to alleviate the allergy symptoms. A disclaimer here, though:.Do NOT take medical advice from me. Harpoon UFO White is NOT a cure for allergies, despite my good experiences with it last evening.  See your doctor if allergies are bothering you. 

Locust tree over the weekend fully in bloom, St. Albans,
Vermont. These trees probably contributed to what I'm
calling a "pollen storm" in Vermont Saturday.

Today is less breezy, so things outside might be a little better. But it's still dry, so pollen can easily float in the air. It's that time of year. I think a lot of it is coming from pine trees. I also have flowering locust trees around my house, and they reached peak bloom Friday.  Yesterday, the pollen and flower petals were blowing off those trees like crazy.

Rain expected later Tuesday will at least tamp down the "pollen storm" in Vermont a little bit. 

The slight pollen haze that was noticeable yesterday prompted an interesting discussion on Twitter about summer haze. The always extremely helpful folks at the National Weather Service in South Burlington explained the more traditional bluish haze we often see during the summer. 

As NWS Burlington explains, that common blue haze we often see in the summer is to a large extent made up of tree isoprene. It's a natural chemical compound trees release to manage heat stress.  The Blue Ridge and Smoky Mountains are in the hot, humid Southeast and that isoprene release down there is probably how those mountain ranges got their names. 

The National Weather Service agreed that any hazy noticeable in Vermont Saturday was likely pollen or dust, since it wasn't particularly hot out. 

TROPICAL STORM ALEX

Wannabe tropical storm Alex finally turned into official Tropical Storm Alex, ironically after doing most of its damage.

As the storm drenched South Florida with up to 13 inches of rain on Saturday, it didn't have a well defined center. It was just a big blob of torrential thunderstorms. 

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Alex northeast
of Florida this morning. 

Overnight, these storms largely left Florida and hit the warm Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean, northeast of Florida.  

The Gulf Stream is even warmer than normal right now, and the thunderstorms took advantage of that heat to organize into roughly a circular wind field. That was enough to make it an official tropical storm. Alex is here.

Not for long, though. It had max winds of 50 mph this morning, and might gain a bit more steam today. 

Then it will begin to weaken, once again falling victim to strong upper level winds.  A tropical storm warning is up for Bermuda for Monday, but I think that island will weather this weak tropical storm fairly well.

Flooding was extensive in South Florida from what was then just a potential tropical storm. But a foot of rain can put a lot of streets and highways under water in a short period of time. Dozens of cars stalled in the water in downtown Miami, and in surrounding communities. 

Floor warnings have since been lifted in Florida. 

  

Wannabe Tropical Storm Alex Sputters, Still Drowns South Florida

Satellite view of the mess that is wannabe Tropical Storm
Alex this morning flooding South Florida. It's not 
organized enough to be declared an official tropical storm.

Be glad you're not in or near Miami this morning. 

Torrential rains already amounting to up to nine inches from wannabe Tropical Storm Alex have flooded countless streets, highways and underpasses in South Florida.  One more round of torrential rain was moving the the Miami-Dade area as I write this around 6:30 this morning. 

Notice I'm calling the storm wannabe Tropical Storm Alex and not actually a tropical storm. 

As of early this morning, the National Hurricane Center says the system has top winds of 40 mph.  Winds need to be 39 mph to declare a tropical storm, so this qualifies, right?  Plus, South Florida is under a tropical storm warning. So Alex it is, you'd think. 

Not in this case. A tropical storm must have a closed circulation. In other words, the winds need to be going in a counterclockwise circle around a defined storm center. This mess of a tropical system does not have such a center.

Instead, as of early this morning, the "storm" was just a chaotic collection of torrential thunderstorms in the Bahamas, Florida and Cuba. Those top winds of 40 mph were just in a few isolated areas. This is as far as you can get from a neat, circular tropical storm.   

High winds aloft have been blowing away any attempts by wannabe Alex to organize into a tropical storm. There's still a chance it could become a tropical storm later today once this mess gets past South Florida, we'll see.

For Floridians, it doesn't matter whether this is an official tropical storm or not.  The effects are the same. They don't have much wind with this system, but boy is it raining! As noted, it's hard to drive anywhere in or near Miami early today there's so much water.  I'm sure a lot of homes and businesses are taking on water, too. 

After wannabe Alex finishes with Florida today, it will continue on a northeastward path out to sea. It eventually will just become a remnant low way out over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.  This storm will have no effect on our weather here in Vermont. 

In fact, up here in the North Country, we're having a nice weekend. Some scattered showers and thundershowers will pop up this afternoon in the Northeast Kingdom and Connecticut River Valley. (That's the same area scattered storms focused on Friday).

Still, the sun will be out much of the time today. Sunday looks pretty sunny, too. Daytime highs will bei in the near normal low 70s, while tonight will be on the crisp side again (mostly 40s).

No Drought In Vermont So Far, Which Is A Nice Change Of Pace

Rain pouring down on flowers and wisteria on my back
deck this morning. For the first spring since 2017, I havent't
had any trouble with too dry gardens.

 We've had some showers around my hacienda in St. Albans, Vermont once again.  I've hardly had to water any of the gardens in weeks now, which is great. I can focus on other tasks. 

I write this to discuss a type of weather that can crop up this time of year, opposite of the flash flood risks I talked about yesterday.

And that type of weather is drought. Knock on wood, this is the first time since 2017 we didn't have to deal with dry conditions anywhere in Vermont this time of year.

Abnormally dry conditions in parts of Vermont  have come and gone, but have been on the persistent side since late summer and fall of 2017.

However, for the past month-ish or so, the U.S. Drought Monitor has not depicted in their weekly reports any dry spots in Vermont. Some lingering abnormally dry conditions - a little short of a drought - lingered in northeastern Vermont into May, but that has since gone away. 

There's no telling how the rest of the summer will go of course. (We had nearly double the normal rainfall for the month in June, 2017 only to see things gradually dry out in the late summer and fall, to the point where a few forest fires broke out in October). 

So far, so good this year, though. Drought continues to linger in western Maine. Some drought conditions have developed in parts of southern and eastern New England. 

Unlike in recent years, when southern Vermont got all the water and the north missed out, southern parts of the Green Mountain State are a little on the dry side, though not in drought.

U.S. Drought Monitor is seeing no trouble
with dry conditions in Vermont. Southeastern
New England and western Maine are on 
the dry side, though. 

Aside from an arid 10-day stretch in mid-May,  we've had a Goldilocks rainfall pattern this spring and now early summer in northern Vermont. 

It's certainly wet enough, but not so wet that we're in a swamp or dealing with floods. Rain seems to come every other day. Nothing especially heavy, but enough to keep things nice and damp and green and growing.  

Keep it coming!

Of course, as noted, we don't know what the coming months will bring. Short term looks good. First of all, we're not in any kind of weather pattern that would bring excessively hot weather. Which is good. Hot weather dries things out pretty quickly.

And, cold fronts and little storms continue to zip on through every few days. It's raining as I write this at 6:45 a.m. Friday in St. Albans.  This just about 24 hours after another decent soaking. 

Rain tends to be hit and miss in the summer, but we do have shower chances today, perhaps a few widely scattered ones Saturday, and a decent chance of showers and perhaps storms late Monday and Tuesday.

Longer range forecasts through June 16 seem to want to keep our temperatures near normal, with a possible tendency to be a little wetter than average. 

Summertime Is Peak Flash Flood Season Across Nation, Including Here In Vermont

Flash flooding during a torrential downpour in 
Jericho, Vermont, July 4, 2013. Summer time 
brings the highest risk of flash floods. Seems 
there's a flash flood daily in the summer somewhere
in the United States. Almost every summer brings
at least one instance of flash flooding
somewhere in Vermont. 

 Flash floods can occur any time of year, pretty much anywhere. But summertime is when we can expect them most often, and often, they're the most deadly.  

From now on into September at least, we'll see flash flood trouble spots almost daily somewhere in the United States.

As of this morning, parts of central Oklahoma are drenched and in some cases flooded. Pockets of heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic States and parts of Washington State could see some flash flooding today.

A tropical system which might become Tropical Storm Alex, is expected to bring torrential rain tomorrow and over the weekend to South Florida, so flash flooding is a good bet there. On and on it goes. 

Here in Vermont, though rain is in the forecast for Friday, we will NOT see enough rain then to cause flooding. However, some of our worst flash flood events have occurred in June. Think June, 1973, and June, 1998 as examples. Of course, the risk continues on through the summer. 

Several reasons conspire to increase the risk of flash flooding in the summer. It can get hot and humid in the summer, duh!! 

That kind of air can hold a TON of water.  Thunderstorms forming in this humid air can dump tremendous amounts of water in a short time. 

Also, summer time air flow is often sluggish. We sometimes don't have enough wind to push a thunderstorm along very fast. So it sits in one area and pours its water on one spot. Or, thunderstorms line up like boxcars on a railroad track and go over the same spot over and over again, so a narrow band of real estate ends up suffering from a damaging flash floods.

Flash floods are often localized like that. I've seen instances in which one town is badly flooded while the pavement is still dry in a town less than 10 miles away. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes are obviously another way to see a flash flood.  They'll often hold onto a lot of moisture and cause damaging floods way inland. 

Aftermath of flash flooding, Barre, Vermont, May, 2011.

Or, the remnants of an old tropical storm can interact with another weather system to unleash a catastrophic flash flood a thousand or more miles away from where the storm came ashore. We saw that last year when Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana, and a few days later, its remains unleashed a terrible flood on the New York City area.

An even more extreme example of this came in 1997. Moisture from offshore Tropical Storm Claudette interacted with a stalled cold front over the northern Green Mountains to produce the devastating flash flood of July 15, 1997 in and around Montgomery, Vermont. 

Similarly, in 1995, a forgettable tropical storm named Dean hit the Texas coast on July 30.  Its remnants interacted with another stalled weather front in Vermont to produce destructive flash flooding in northern parts of the state on August 4-6 that year, especially in the Lamoille River Valley.

Climate change ups the ante with flash floods.  It's causing the air to become generally warmer and, especially in the eastern United States, wetter. This creates more potential for torrential downpours ad floods.

Though drought periods are increasing somewhat, overall rainfall has increased here in Vermont in recent decades.  That helps to explain why flash floods seem to have become more common in the Green Mountain State.

We've seen at least localized flash flooding in Vermont almost every summer for over two decades now.  Already, we've seen a bit of flash flooding around Proctor, Florence and West Rutland in mid-May. I fully expect to see addition flooding of this type in Vermont as we go through the summer. 

As the name implies, you don't know you're going to be hit by a flash flood until just before it happens. During periods of stormy summer weather, definitely check in with the National Weather Service for flash flood watches, warnings and statements. 

If you find yourself under a flash flood warning, move quickly to higher ground and whatever you do, don't drive over a flooded road. You don't know how deep the water is, or whether the road is even still there. Most flood deaths are in vehicles. 

We love summer rain storms. We need them.  Like every good thing in life, too much turns into a bad thing. 

Hurricane Season Might Be Getting Off To A Fast Start

Satellite photo from showing United States, Mexico, the 
Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic Ocean. That mess
of clouds in the southern Gulf of Mexico could become 
Tropical Storm Alex.

 Officially, the hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean side of North America begins today, June 1, and there's already a tropical storm threat to talk about. 

The National Hurricane Center is giving a disturbance near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.  If it does form, it appears it's poised to give Florida  and Cuba an absolute drenching. 

At least a half foot of rain is forecast in both places, which of course could lead to some pretty nasty flooding. 

If this thing develops into a tropical storm, they'll name it Alex. It'll probably fall short of becoming a full-fledged hurricane, as strong upper level winds are and will be interfering with its development. That's typical early in the hurricane season.  

Usually upper level winds are stronger and ocean temperatures are cooler in June than in, say, August.  That's why early season storms are usually (but not always!) weaker than the powerhouse hurricanes later in the summer and early autumn. 

That said, there's two factors that are helping wannabe Alex.  Ocean temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal. Plus, wannabe Alex is getting energy from what once was Hurricane Agatha.

On the Pacific Ocean side of North America, hurricane season starts May 15, and we've already had our first hurricane. This was definitely an exception to the rule that June tropical systems are weak.

Agatha was the strongest landfalling hurricane in May with winds of at least 105 mph when it came ashore a couple days ago in the southern state of Oaxaca, Mexico. It killed at least 11 people and 20 people are still missing after the flooding and mudslides caused by Agatha. 

Agatha fell apart over the mountains of southern Mexico as all landfalling hurricanes lose steam over land. But its remnant energy is feeding into the disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula, which could help wannabe Alex get its act together. 

If wannabe Alex develops into a tropical storm, it won't be the earliest on record. Despite the fact that hurricane season officially starts on June 1, there have been tropical storms in May. There has even been three Atlantic Ocean tropical storms recorded in April, the most recent being in 2017.   

The National Hurricane Center predict this year will be another very busy one in the Atlantic Ocean, due to a number of factors. Those include a continuing La Nina global weather pattern and ocean temperatures that are mostly running warmer than normal. 

A Hot, Dry May And Warm Spring In Vermont Ends With A Cool, Wet Start To June

Some convection fires up near Burlington on May 14
after a record hot day.  May tied for the fourth hottest
on record in Burlington. 

UPDATE:

I found some other interesting climatology out of Burlington for this spring.

Turns out spring, 2022 was the fifth warmest on record in Burlington, with a mean temperature of 47.7 degrees  This takes into account meteorological spring, which runs from March 1 through May 31.

We've had back to back toasty springs. In 2021, spring was the seventh warmest.

As noted below, data for Burlington goes back to the 1880s. In keeping with climate change trends, four of the top 10 warmest springs in Burlington have happened since 2010.

The last time we had a spring that was among the top 10 coldest was in 1972. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 It's cool and cloudy in Vermont this morning, as a few showers and thunderstorms race southeastward across the Green Mountain State. 

This state of affairs will continue today, as the disturbances race along yesterday's wrong way cold front, not stalled just to out south and west. 

Pretty much all of us will get wet today, with probably the heaviest rain I'm guessing to be along and south and west of Interstate 89.   It'll only get into the 60s today, which is definitely chillier than normal.

I guess Ma Nature needs a break from May, which was very warm and dry across Vermont. 

Burlington ended up tying the record for the fourth hottest May, with a mean temperature of 62.2 degrees. In keeping with the climate change trend, four of the top 10 hottest Mays in Burlington have occurred since 2012.  Records go back to the 1880s. 

In Burlington, ten days reached to 80 degrees or more, which is impressive.  Burlington had three record highs in a row on May 12-14, the first time there were three consecutive record highs since September, 2017

Although Burlington did not reach 90 degrees during May, we came close. Plus, Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Bennington, along with other Vermont communities, did reach 90 degrees during the month. 

Everybody in Vermont was at least three degrees warmer than normal in May. Remember, this is the warmer "new" normal that started last year.  This new normal takes into account the average of the years 1990 to 2020, which were warmer than previous periods. 

Rainfall was unfortunately on the light side, except around Rutland, which was bullseyed by intense thunderstorms at mid month. Most towns in Vermont were nearly an inch on the light side. 

Partly because of the unusual warmth in May, scattered severe thunderstorms made appearances, especially at mid-month and in scattered fashion on May 21. 

Despite a relative lack of rain in May, Vermont is not under any kind of drought or real drought risk as U.S. Drought Monitor maps indicate.

You never know what the new month will ultimately bring to Vermont, but signs are fairly encouraging. We have several chances of rain over the next week, starting with today. Long range forecasts into mid June call for near average temperatures and somewhat wetter than average conditions in Vermont.