Winter Forecasts Mostly Think Vermont/North U.S. To Be Warm. *Results May Vary

For what it's worth, NOAA predicts a warm winter
across the northern tier of states, including here in
Vermont. But don't hang your hat on this. Long
range forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

 It's that time of year when everybody and their brother attempt a forecast for the upcoming winter's weather.  

Fine, I'll play along again, but as always, don't be the least bit surprised if things turn out to be completely different than the various winter forecasts you see in this post.

I'll tell you what the winter of 2023-24 will end up being like in, I don't know, March?

For what it's worth, NOAA this past week released its winter forecast.

It calls for a classic El Nino pattern. Overall, the nation is in for a warm winter, if NOAA is correct. The strongest chances of having a warm winter, relative to average would most likely be in the Pacific Northwest, New England and Alaska.

The NOAA winter precipitation forecast is also classic El Nino, feature a greater chance of drier than normal weather in the northern Rockies, far northern Plains and around the Great Lakes.

Chances for above normal precipitation would extend across the southern tier of the United States from California to the Carolinas. The greatest chance of a wet winter would be across Florida and southern Georgia.

Here in Vermont, NOAA says it's a tossup as to whether it will be wet or dry this winter. 

In my experience during El Nino winters in Vermont, it seems like the early winter is the warmest relative to average and then it gets colder toward late winter. I have no idea whether this will be the case this year, but I'm just throwing that out there, as I've seen it before. 

For what it's worth, NOAA got last winter's forecast right, at least here in the Green Mountain State. The prediction was for a warm winter with equal chances of it being wet or dry. 

The reality was last winter was the third warmest on record,  and was a little wetter than average. However, NOAA got other regions wrong. They did not forecast a remarkably wet winter in California, for instance.

The Weather Channel's winter forecast roughly mirrors NOAA, with the most of the nation, except the Southeast, having a mild winter. The Weather Channel maps overall have the best chances of a warm winter north of a west-east line from about San Francisco to New York City.

Here in Vermont, the Weather Channel kind of echoes my gut feelings. Early winter could be very much on the warm side, but by February, things would be closer to normal, says the home of Jim Cantore.

The Weather Channel missed the mark - at least for us in Vermont - last winter. They said it would be somewhat colder than average (but not extremely cold). But it was extremely warm, so that's a miss. 

AccuWeather is also predicting a classic El Nino type winter with warmer conditions to the north and somewhat cooler south, relative to average.

The difference is AccuWeather is not nearly as bullish on the warmth as NOAA or The Weather Channel. Although AccuWeather thinks the northern third of the U.S. will be on the warmish side, the only really warm regions would be the northern Rockies and the western Great Lakes. They're also predicting more snow in the eastern United States than last winter.

AccuWeather is predicting somewhat above average snowfall for interior New England, including all of Vermont this winter. 

I'm afraid to say AccuWeather kind of botched last year's forecast. They did expect a fairly warm early winter in the Northeast, which turned out to be true. But New England was supposed to have a fairly snowy winter, great for skiing, which didn't happen. Their worst mistake was saying that California would remain dry, and drought would continue. Oops. 

The other usual suspects have also issued their winter forecasts. The Old Farmer's Almanac said that most of the central and western United States will have a cold, snowy winter. New England is in for a mild, but snowy winter, says the publication. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac got it wrong for Vermont last winter. They predicted a cold snowy winter. As noted, it turned out very warm. Also, snowfall was somewhat below normal. 

The rival Farmer's Almanac (I guess it's not so old) is forecasting a cold, stormy winter in northern New England. The same publication also said we would have a cold, stormy winter last year, which of course didn't happen.  

As noted, I have no idea who among these prognosticators who is right. Another mystery for me is all the emphasis on winter outlooks every year. We do see spring, autumn and summer outlooks, but those predictions lack the breathless anticipation and certainty of the forecasters, despite their weak track record. 

Anyway, enjoy your winter. However it turns out. 

Vermont October "Cold Snap" Really Isn't Cold, Barely Snowed Mountain Tops, Warmth To Return

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
put out this map Sunday showing storm totals 
from Friday into Sunday. Up to an inch of additional
rain fell after this in far northern Vermont. Click
on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.

 I'm still amazed by how a spell of average weather can seem so chilly compared to how weirdly warm it is. 

And spoiler: The warmth will return this week.

It's true that Sunday, as long advertised, was not a nice day.  In far northern Vermont, it rained all day.  In fact here in St. Albans, at least light rain and drizzle has fallen continuously since late Friday night.  It was still drizzling as of 7 a.m. today. 

The extra rain in far northern Vermont really added up. By this morning my unofficial storm total was up to 3.2 inches. 

 The map in this post does not necessarily show rainfall for all of Sunday and Sunday night, so some northern areas really ended up especially soggy, too

Elsewhere in Vermont where there were only occasional showers under gray skies Sunday.  

Rainfall totals through 4:30 p.m. Friday shows widespread two to three inch rain totals throughout western Vermont, all of Bennington and Windham counties and some spots in the Northeast Kingdom.

Despite two record soakers in Burlington this month, the city hasn't quite made it yet into the top ten list of wettest Octobers. So far, 5.6 inches of rain has fallen in Burlington this month. The tenth wettest October had 5.81 inches, so we're close. 

 Depending on what happens toward next weekend, that could change, but we're getting ahead of ourselves. 

WINTRY? NOT REALLY

A colored tree lights up a gloomy morning in St 
Albans, Vermont today. Excuse the bad formatting,
Blogger won't let me position photos where 
they should be today. 

As semi-wintry as Sunday felt, it was actually a pretty average day for late October. High temperatures were a little cooler than average, low temperatures were near normal to slightly on the mild side. 

Mount Mansfield finally had its first snow, which for them was awfully late. To put it in perspective, the average date of the first snow flurries of the season in Banana Belt Burlington is October 15.  The summit of Vermont's highest peak usually gets a little snow way, way before that. 

If you thought Sunday's weather was icky, consider this. On Sunday's date in Burlington way back in 1969, 5.1 inches of snow fell. That 1969 snowstorm was an introduction to what would turn out to be arguably the harshest winter on record, if you consider the combination of very low temperatures and extreme snowfalls. 

Don't worry, we won't be seeing any winter conditions quite yet. 

TODAY

It's going to be tricky to scour out the clouds due to a temperature inversion trapping clouds beneath a layer of somewhat warmer air above.  

Dry air is trying to work in, and that could eventually break up the clouds this afternoon. The best shot at seeing the sun is in the lower Connecticut River Valley, and just maybe valleys of western Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.  

As we've been saying for days, tonight will be chilly, but nothing odd for October.  Many areas away from the Champlain Valley will likely see a frost or freeze, which once again is awfully late for the first one of the season.

Much of the Champlain Valley is going to go another week at least without a frost.

BIG WARMUP

The warm air coming in this week is looking more and more impressive.  This won't necessarily be a big sunshiny and super dry warm spell, but still very odd for this time of year. 

At this point, Wednesday through Friday, it looks like a fair number of clouds will hold temperatures in the 65 to 72 degree range, so we will probably fall just short of daytime record highs. 

The air coming in is fairly humid for this time of year (not uncomfortable like summer, but still a little muggier than you'd expect in late October). That means nights, especially in the Champlain Valley will be ridiculously warm. Like leave your windows open warm. 

Lows should be in the upper 50s to maybe near 60 Wednesday and Thursday nights in the Champlain Valley and closer to 50 in central and eastern Vermont. This sets the stage for some possible record warm overnight lows Thursday and Friday. 

It'll probably turn cooler again next weekend. 

Winter will eventually get here. I noticed the first winter storm watches of the season today in Washington State and the northern Rockies. Eventually the cold air will get here. In fact, some long range forecasts call for colder than normal temperatures here during the first week in November

Another Remarkably Wet Day In Vermont Saturday; First Snow In High Spots Today, Then More Warm?

Dark clouds and rain Saturday did help to pop out
remaining fall colors, as seen here in Georgia, Vermont. 

 For the second Saturday this month, some pretty remarkable rains fell in parts of Vermont. 

Burlington had 2.33 inches of rain  yesterday, a record amount for the date. This follows another record 2.8 inches back on October 7. It's quite rare to have more than two inches of rain fall on two different days in the same month. 

It's been that kind of weird, wet weather year. The rain, though thoroughly drenching, didn't come down fast enough to cause any real flooding. Vermont's rivers certainly rose quite a bit, but they are not at or threatening flood stage. 

The heaviest rain Saturday seemed mostly focused along and west of the Green Mountains. The bulk of the moderate to heavy rain didn't hit eastern Vermont until later.

For most of Saturday a  little trof line - basically a mini weather front - steered Atlantic moisture northward through western New England and up through Bennington and Rutland counties and on up into the Champlain Valley. This was all happening as a strengthening storm near the coast helped funnel wet air northward.

Rainfall tapered off a little from central Vermont and points east. For instance, Montpelier has only reported about an inch and a quarter of rain. That made for a soggy day, but nothing too out of whack. Still, some areas in the southern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom got more than two inches of rain. 

I don't have complete rainfall data yet, but some of the highest storm totals I came across are 3.37 inches in Marlboro, 2.9 inches in Middlebury and 2.69 inches in West Rutland. So this storm was less intense that the one early this month, but not by much.  

A RAW SUNDAY 

That storm is now well to our northeast up toward Nova Scotia. But it's circulating cold, damp air back over northern New England.

This situation is serving up, as previously advertised, a raw, nasty Sunday in Vermont, and in places like northern New York, New Hampshire, Maine and southern Quebec.  

These trees near my St. Albans, Vermont house were still
mostly green three or four days ago, so a belated
autumn is now progressing on this chilly, raw Sunday.

A little more cold air than anticipated is flowing in, so snow won't necessarily be limited to just the highest peaks. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says you might see snowflakes in Vermont at elevations at or even a bit below 2,500 feet. In the Adirondacks, snow levels could briefly fall to 1,000 feet above sea level.

For the rest of us, cold northwest winds, temperatures in the 40s, along with light but persistent showers will make for a miserable day.  It's a great Sunday to get indoor chores done, I guess.

Although today's raindrops are cold and awful, rainfall amounts won't be anything like Saturday. Expect another 0.1 to 0.25 inches, with maybe a little more than that in the central and northern Green Mountains. Southeastern Vermont valleys could stay dry much of the day. 

Monday still looks cool and somewhat cloudy. We're still looking at some fairly widespread frost Monday night and Tuesday morning, but like I've said several times in the past week, a first frost and freeze this late is off the charts wacko.  I think many areas in the Champlain Valley will stay above freezing. 

ANOTHER BIG WARMUP

We're not done with this warm autumn just yet.  After Tuesday morning, we have another unseasonably warm week to look forward to. 

Tuesday looks seasonable, with highs in the 50s. That's just about normal for this time of year. By Wednesday and Thursday, it could even be warmer than last week was.  Highs will at least be in the 60s both days.  Some forecasts call for a high of 70 in the warmer valleys on Thursday.  

So those indoor chores you're doing on this raw Sunday probably shouldn't be putting away your t-shirts and shorts for the winter just yet. 

Vermont Super Soaker Soaking Even More Than Originally Thought

Before this weekend's storm arrived and as dark clouds
gathered Friday, one last splash of sun lit up this
colorful hillside in St. Albans. 

When I got up before dawn this Saturday morning, it was really raining out there.  We've already gotten more rain than I thought we would up until this point, And there's a lot more to go. 

Despite the extra rain,  I'll avoid spooking jittery Vermonters to say it still doesn't look like there will be any serious flooding. But yes, it's a soggy weekend.  Friday was a tale of two very different types of weather in Vermont. 

In some parts of Vermont and surrounding areas, the action started Friday.  The southeastern half of the state had a cool and showery Friday,  with some bursts of  rather heavy rain in far southeastern Vermont in the evening.

In northwestern Vermont, Friday turned out mostly cloudy, but dry. Dark clouds mixed with breaks of low angle sun made some dramatic, gorgeous views of very late season peak foliage remaining for now in the Champlain Valley. 

From roughly midnight through the time I'm writing this after 7 a.m. a wide band of moderate to at times heavy rain was moving north to south over the western half of Vermont and eastern New York. Rain was also falling further east but was lighter.

Totals so far are impressive.  By 7 a.m., Burlington had already picked up just under an inch and a half of rain.  The city will probably receive at least another inch before this is over. 

For Vermont as a whole, expect a total of 1.5 to a little over three inches of rain by the time things finally end Sunday night.  This will be the second impressively wet storm of the month. 

If you want to look for a bright side, at least the ski areas will have plenty of ground water, and certainly no drought conditions for when they start making snow for the slopes. 

REST OF TODAY

The rain will continue to drone on all day. Sometimes, it will come down pretty heavily, other times it will taper to sprinkles and patchy drizzle, and yet other times it will be fairly light but still drenching enough. This state of affairs will continue into tonight. 

It will be cooler than it's been, with temperatures holding in the 50s. 

The Northeast River Forecast Center has the most rain
from this storm over Vermont and New Hampshire.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see
Widespread two to three inches of rain expected.

Although no widespread flooding is expected, I do wonder about storm drains and culverts with all the fallen and falling leaves.  Clogged drains in urban areas could create some flooding on streets.

As I mentioned yesterday, leaves swept downstream in rising brooks and streams sometime encounter obstructions like branches and culvert edges.  The leaves then pack together and form dams, which can back up  and divert water and erode driveways and back roads and such.

Also, i these leaf dams break, they can unleash a very, very localized flash flood which could cause some issues. 

This is not any kind of serious threat like we experienced in the summer. Still, after such a wet year, it would be a bummer to have you suffer some isolated damage to your property. If you see one of these leaf dams starting to cause trouble, maybe grab a rake or a shovel and break the leaf dam up. But only if it's safe to do so.

Main rivers across Vermont will rise fairly sharply by Sunday, but won't go into flood stage, so we're safe there. 

RAW SUNDAY

Sunday still looks pretty awful. It won't rain nearly as much as it did today, became the storm will be departing into southeastern Canada.

However, you know how often in the winter, after a nor'easter, wrap around moisture keeps light snow going for the whole next day after the main storm, especially in the mountains?  That state of affairs hits Sunday, but it will be just a little too warm for snow, 

Warm is not the word you'll use to describe Sunday, though. We should see frequent light showers or even a steady light rain in spots. Temperatures will never get past the mid-40s during the day. Such a cool day is usually not odd for late October. However, up until now, this autumn has been ridiculously warm.  Sunday will be by far the coldest day of the season.  So it will take some getting used to.

Especially since the chill and the rain will be accompanied by blustery north to northwest winds. Like I said yesterday, Sunday will be an excellent day to take in some NFL games. If you're not into that, I wonder what Netflix or Hulu has to offer?

On the mountaintops, it might get cold enough for a little snow, sleet or even freezing rain. Yuck!  Don't worry, that should only be a problem up on the summits, not where pretty much all of us live.

It gets better, but stays cool Monday.  I'm beginning to doubt forecasts of widespread frosts in at least some parts of Vermont Monday night and Tuesday morning. I think places away from the Champlain Valley still have a decent risk of a frost, which for many will be the latest on record.

Chances seem to be increasing that the Champlain Valley will escape a frost/freeze, but to be on the safe side, I'd still take sensitive plants indoors  

The forecast for upcoming week has more question marks than usual, but if this forecast pans out, the Champlain Valley would remain frost-free at least until next weekend.  

 

Another Weekend Big Soaker Coming To Vermont/New England Stick Season To Arrive

Still some decent fall colors yesterday in the Champlain
Valley, as seen in this shot in St. Albans, but this 
weekend's storm will mostly introduce 
us to stick season. 

 Early this month, we had a real soaker of a rain storm. The western half of Vermont in particular got it, with two to in some places more than four inches of rain.  

We have that soaker's kid sister coming up this weekend. Though rainfall won't be quite as much as the earlier storm, the 1.5 to three inches of rain in the forecast between now and Sunday night is pretty impressive.

The bad news is the long duration storm means the weekend will pretty much be a washout. It will rain most of the time, and turn chillier, and windier by Sunday. 

The good news is because it will take a couple days for that rain to accumulate, much of the water will soak into the ground, and the chances of flooding are pretty low. 

This will be a foliage season ender.  It's already way past peak in northern and central Vermont. As of yesterday, there was still some nice late season color in the Champlain Valley and warmer valley floors of southern Vermont. 

But the persistent rain and wind will pretty much introduce us to stick season. After this weekend, there will only be pockets of autumn color left. 

This is also how there could be some localized flood risks. All those fallen leaves get swept down small brooks and streams.  Then they all get stuck on an obstruction, like branches or a culvert. These packs of leaves can become really effective dams, backing up water. Sometimes, they'll let go, causing a bit of a flash flood downstream that can damage driveways and culverts and such.  

If you see leaves forming these dams and threatening culverts, try to break them up if you can do so safely. 

It's a one-two punch, with an initial disturbance coming from the south and a  wet cold front coming in from the west. That will set off today's showers, moving south to north across Vermont today.  The heavier rain today will be in southern Vermont, with lighter, more scattered stuff further north. 

Then a new, secondary coastal storm will get going and become the dominant storm Saturday into Sunday. This one will soak New England, including all of Vermont. 

The bulk of the rain will come down on Saturday. Through Saturday, it will remain mild-ish, but it won't feel that way with all the rain and the damp breezes. After highs in the 60s for most of us today, lows will only go into the 50s tonight, and stay in the upper 50s Saturday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is
predicting more than two inches of rain (orange shading)
in much of Vermont between now and Sunday evening. 

As the storm heads off into Canada Sunday, the rain will become lighter and eventually more showery. But it still looks like a nasty day.  A good day to stay inside and watch NFL football, I guess. 

 It won't be that cold for this time of year, with highs near 50 or just above that.  Such temperatures are only slightly on the cool side for this time of year. 

But those cold rain showers and north winds gusting to more than 20 mph, it will feel rather miserable out there. 

If there's any snow, it will be limited to near the summits of the Adirondacks and Green and White Mountains. It also won't amount to much, so don't get your skis or snowboards out just yet. 

Monday still looks brighter, breezy and chilly, with highs only in the upper 40s to near 50.  Monday night, some areas of Vermont will see their first frost and freeze of the season, which is incredibly late.

Some areas, especially in the Champlain Valley might manage to stay above freezing Monday night and Tuesday morning, which will prolong this weird frost-free season longer.

Long Boring Vermont Gloomy Stretch To End In Rain, Wind And Frost

A bit of sun broke through the clouds in Charlotte, Vermont
Wednesday afternoon, lighting up some late
season fall foliage. 

 We in Vermont have been stuck in a weird steady state, mostly cloudy, mild and sprinkly phase for 11 days now.  

That's a long time to go with every day bringing the same weather over and over in a state noted for its changeable conditions.

It hasn't been all bad.  We've had splashes of sunshine here and there. Rainfall has been scattered and brief. And it's been on the warm side, especially at night. 

The weather, though tolerable,  has been pretty boring, though, to be honest.

Well, folks, changes are finally coming, but not everybody will like them. We are getting into the end of October, though, so we can't expect that much greatness.

A temperature inversion that has been  holding in the clouds is finally forecast to break today, just in time to make room for a new storm. 

The sun will probably come out, at least a little this afternoon, and it will be warm again with highs topping out in the 60s. You'll notice a real breeze kick in, too.  Which is a change, as it's been pretty calm along with the patchy drizzle and clouds.

Friday, it'll be cloudy and warm with a rising chance of rain as the big weather changes approach. 

VERY WET SATURDAY?

One storm is coming in from the west, another from the south. They'll tend to merge over New England Friday night and Saturday.  That means we're in for another rainy weekend. Especially Friday night and Saturday. Sorry kiddies, Saturday looks like a washout.  This won't be the spotty drizzly we've been having, but a true soaking. 

As it stands now, this looks to be a soaker, with most of us seeing more than an inch of rain between Friday night and Sunday afternoon. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center actually has us in a marginal risk for flash flooding Saturday.  

However, I don't think there's much of a threat. It won't be enough rain to really fill the rivers. I suppose there could be a little street flooding from storm drains clogged with leaves.  And if more rain than expected comes, there could be some issues. But worse case scenario at this point looks like very minor flooding.  

COLDER BLAST 

As the storm begins to depart, it will really wind up over eastern Quebec.  That means much colder weather, with gusty winds by Sunday.  It will also be showery, so absolutely not a nice day.

The rain on Sunday will probably be just occasional and not heavy, but it sure won't be pleasant as temperatures hold in the 40s with northwest winds probably gusting to 30 mph, at least as things look from this vantage point. 

Mountain summits look like they'll have a real chance of snow Sunday and Sunday evening. 

Monday will be brighter, but still much chillier than we've gotten used to. Most of us will stay at or below 50 degrees all day.  Which leads us to the first widespread frost and freeze of the season.

FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK

This threat of the first freeze of the season Monday night and Tuesday morning is awfully late. In fact it will be the latest first freeze of the season on record in many parts of Vermont.  

Oddly, there won't be any frost or freeze warnings with this, because it's considered past the growing season. Though many of us are still enjoying harvests from our gardens and late blooming flowers in the perennial beds. 

It's a little early to tell for sure, but the Banana Belt Champlain Valley might not even get below freezing. Current forecast lows for Burlington are 35 degrees Tuesday morning. That's setting Burlington up for its own potential record for latest first freeze.

If there's no freeze this coming Tuesday, October 24 as measured at the Burlington International Airport in South Burlington, then an expected warming trend over the course of next week will keep a freeze at bay even longer. 

The record latest freeze as measured at the airport was on October 26, 2018. Prior to 1941, Burlington's weather was measured closer to Lake Champlain, which has warmer nights than at the airport during the autumn.

When records were kept near downtown Burlington, the latest first freeze on record was November 1, 1920. It'll be interesting to see how we do. 

None of this weather over the weekend and early next week is the least bit unusual for this time of year. But we continue to get a false sense of security by this long spell of warm weather. It's been mostly near normal or warmer than average with only the briefest of exceptions really since late August.  

It's been a strange ride this year. 

Canceled Biden Trip Would Have Been An Unintentional Climate Irony Moment

A huge coal train derailment in Pueblo, Colorado
on Sunday. It has blocked Interstate 25 since, snarling
traffic in the region. Photo is from Pueblo
County Sheriff's Office. 

President Joe Biden was supposed to travel to Pueblo, Colorado on Monday to talk about his clean energy initiative. 

He canceled at the last minute. He (quite reasonably, in my opinion) decided to instead hold meetings with his national security team regarding Israel's deadly war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. 

The trip to Colorado would have been a bit of an ironic moment. Any trip to a U.S. city by the President would screw up local traffic, due to the security such a visit would entail.   

The traffic in Pueblo would be extra messed up by a Biden visit for this reason: A coal train Sunday derailed on a bridge above busy Interstate 25. The bridge collapsed, sadly killing a passing truck driver.  Coal spilled everywhere, closing the Interstate in both directions and disrupting traffic throughout the city. 

As of last night, Interstate 25 was still closed and was expected to remain that way at least until this afternoon (October 18) as tons of coal and wreckage are cleaned up. 

The Associated Press reports:

"A nine-mile stretch of I-25 - used by 39,000 to 44,000 vehicles daily - was shut down. Traffic was being detoured around the derailment site and through the town of Penrose, almost 30 miles west of Pueblo."

So yeah, pretty messy. Imagine mixing Biden's motorcade and security into that mess. 

 Coal isn't exactly clean energy.  It's one of the main, dirtiest culprit in causing climate change. Plus, the point of Biden's visit was to promote a clean energy industry aimed at muting the dangerous effects of climate change. 

It wasn't the entire coal industry's fault the derailment happened. Investigators think a broken rail was behind the disaster. 

But had Biden come to Pueblo to chat up his clean energy initiatives, the coal train disaster would have been pretty ironic.  I haven't heard of clean energy causing big problems like the train wreck, but maybe you can guide me toward an example.  

I get it that the situation in Gaza that Biden is dealing with is zillions of times worse and more complicated than the train derailment. But I can't resist highlighting the irony of the derailment and Biden's intentions for going to Pueblo.