Wannabe Tropical Storm Alex Sputters, Still Drowns South Florida

Satellite view of the mess that is wannabe Tropical Storm
Alex this morning flooding South Florida. It's not 
organized enough to be declared an official tropical storm.

Be glad you're not in or near Miami this morning. 

Torrential rains already amounting to up to nine inches from wannabe Tropical Storm Alex have flooded countless streets, highways and underpasses in South Florida.  One more round of torrential rain was moving the the Miami-Dade area as I write this around 6:30 this morning. 

Notice I'm calling the storm wannabe Tropical Storm Alex and not actually a tropical storm. 

As of early this morning, the National Hurricane Center says the system has top winds of 40 mph.  Winds need to be 39 mph to declare a tropical storm, so this qualifies, right?  Plus, South Florida is under a tropical storm warning. So Alex it is, you'd think. 

Not in this case. A tropical storm must have a closed circulation. In other words, the winds need to be going in a counterclockwise circle around a defined storm center. This mess of a tropical system does not have such a center.

Instead, as of early this morning, the "storm" was just a chaotic collection of torrential thunderstorms in the Bahamas, Florida and Cuba. Those top winds of 40 mph were just in a few isolated areas. This is as far as you can get from a neat, circular tropical storm.   

High winds aloft have been blowing away any attempts by wannabe Alex to organize into a tropical storm. There's still a chance it could become a tropical storm later today once this mess gets past South Florida, we'll see.

For Floridians, it doesn't matter whether this is an official tropical storm or not.  The effects are the same. They don't have much wind with this system, but boy is it raining! As noted, it's hard to drive anywhere in or near Miami early today there's so much water.  I'm sure a lot of homes and businesses are taking on water, too. 

After wannabe Alex finishes with Florida today, it will continue on a northeastward path out to sea. It eventually will just become a remnant low way out over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.  This storm will have no effect on our weather here in Vermont. 

In fact, up here in the North Country, we're having a nice weekend. Some scattered showers and thundershowers will pop up this afternoon in the Northeast Kingdom and Connecticut River Valley. (That's the same area scattered storms focused on Friday).

Still, the sun will be out much of the time today. Sunday looks pretty sunny, too. Daytime highs will bei in the near normal low 70s, while tonight will be on the crisp side again (mostly 40s).

No Drought In Vermont So Far, Which Is A Nice Change Of Pace

Rain pouring down on flowers and wisteria on my back
deck this morning. For the first spring since 2017, I havent't
had any trouble with too dry gardens.

 We've had some showers around my hacienda in St. Albans, Vermont once again.  I've hardly had to water any of the gardens in weeks now, which is great. I can focus on other tasks. 

I write this to discuss a type of weather that can crop up this time of year, opposite of the flash flood risks I talked about yesterday.

And that type of weather is drought. Knock on wood, this is the first time since 2017 we didn't have to deal with dry conditions anywhere in Vermont this time of year.

Abnormally dry conditions in parts of Vermont  have come and gone, but have been on the persistent side since late summer and fall of 2017.

However, for the past month-ish or so, the U.S. Drought Monitor has not depicted in their weekly reports any dry spots in Vermont. Some lingering abnormally dry conditions - a little short of a drought - lingered in northeastern Vermont into May, but that has since gone away. 

There's no telling how the rest of the summer will go of course. (We had nearly double the normal rainfall for the month in June, 2017 only to see things gradually dry out in the late summer and fall, to the point where a few forest fires broke out in October). 

So far, so good this year, though. Drought continues to linger in western Maine. Some drought conditions have developed in parts of southern and eastern New England. 

Unlike in recent years, when southern Vermont got all the water and the north missed out, southern parts of the Green Mountain State are a little on the dry side, though not in drought.

U.S. Drought Monitor is seeing no trouble
with dry conditions in Vermont. Southeastern
New England and western Maine are on 
the dry side, though. 

Aside from an arid 10-day stretch in mid-May,  we've had a Goldilocks rainfall pattern this spring and now early summer in northern Vermont. 

It's certainly wet enough, but not so wet that we're in a swamp or dealing with floods. Rain seems to come every other day. Nothing especially heavy, but enough to keep things nice and damp and green and growing.  

Keep it coming!

Of course, as noted, we don't know what the coming months will bring. Short term looks good. First of all, we're not in any kind of weather pattern that would bring excessively hot weather. Which is good. Hot weather dries things out pretty quickly.

And, cold fronts and little storms continue to zip on through every few days. It's raining as I write this at 6:45 a.m. Friday in St. Albans.  This just about 24 hours after another decent soaking. 

Rain tends to be hit and miss in the summer, but we do have shower chances today, perhaps a few widely scattered ones Saturday, and a decent chance of showers and perhaps storms late Monday and Tuesday.

Longer range forecasts through June 16 seem to want to keep our temperatures near normal, with a possible tendency to be a little wetter than average. 

Summertime Is Peak Flash Flood Season Across Nation, Including Here In Vermont

Flash flooding during a torrential downpour in 
Jericho, Vermont, July 4, 2013. Summer time 
brings the highest risk of flash floods. Seems 
there's a flash flood daily in the summer somewhere
in the United States. Almost every summer brings
at least one instance of flash flooding
somewhere in Vermont. 

 Flash floods can occur any time of year, pretty much anywhere. But summertime is when we can expect them most often, and often, they're the most deadly.  

From now on into September at least, we'll see flash flood trouble spots almost daily somewhere in the United States.

As of this morning, parts of central Oklahoma are drenched and in some cases flooded. Pockets of heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic States and parts of Washington State could see some flash flooding today.

A tropical system which might become Tropical Storm Alex, is expected to bring torrential rain tomorrow and over the weekend to South Florida, so flash flooding is a good bet there. On and on it goes. 

Here in Vermont, though rain is in the forecast for Friday, we will NOT see enough rain then to cause flooding. However, some of our worst flash flood events have occurred in June. Think June, 1973, and June, 1998 as examples. Of course, the risk continues on through the summer. 

Several reasons conspire to increase the risk of flash flooding in the summer. It can get hot and humid in the summer, duh!! 

That kind of air can hold a TON of water.  Thunderstorms forming in this humid air can dump tremendous amounts of water in a short time. 

Also, summer time air flow is often sluggish. We sometimes don't have enough wind to push a thunderstorm along very fast. So it sits in one area and pours its water on one spot. Or, thunderstorms line up like boxcars on a railroad track and go over the same spot over and over again, so a narrow band of real estate ends up suffering from a damaging flash floods.

Flash floods are often localized like that. I've seen instances in which one town is badly flooded while the pavement is still dry in a town less than 10 miles away. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes are obviously another way to see a flash flood.  They'll often hold onto a lot of moisture and cause damaging floods way inland. 

Aftermath of flash flooding, Barre, Vermont, May, 2011.

Or, the remnants of an old tropical storm can interact with another weather system to unleash a catastrophic flash flood a thousand or more miles away from where the storm came ashore. We saw that last year when Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana, and a few days later, its remains unleashed a terrible flood on the New York City area.

An even more extreme example of this came in 1997. Moisture from offshore Tropical Storm Claudette interacted with a stalled cold front over the northern Green Mountains to produce the devastating flash flood of July 15, 1997 in and around Montgomery, Vermont. 

Similarly, in 1995, a forgettable tropical storm named Dean hit the Texas coast on July 30.  Its remnants interacted with another stalled weather front in Vermont to produce destructive flash flooding in northern parts of the state on August 4-6 that year, especially in the Lamoille River Valley.

Climate change ups the ante with flash floods.  It's causing the air to become generally warmer and, especially in the eastern United States, wetter. This creates more potential for torrential downpours ad floods.

Though drought periods are increasing somewhat, overall rainfall has increased here in Vermont in recent decades.  That helps to explain why flash floods seem to have become more common in the Green Mountain State.

We've seen at least localized flash flooding in Vermont almost every summer for over two decades now.  Already, we've seen a bit of flash flooding around Proctor, Florence and West Rutland in mid-May. I fully expect to see addition flooding of this type in Vermont as we go through the summer. 

As the name implies, you don't know you're going to be hit by a flash flood until just before it happens. During periods of stormy summer weather, definitely check in with the National Weather Service for flash flood watches, warnings and statements. 

If you find yourself under a flash flood warning, move quickly to higher ground and whatever you do, don't drive over a flooded road. You don't know how deep the water is, or whether the road is even still there. Most flood deaths are in vehicles. 

We love summer rain storms. We need them.  Like every good thing in life, too much turns into a bad thing. 

Hurricane Season Might Be Getting Off To A Fast Start

Satellite photo from showing United States, Mexico, the 
Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic Ocean. That mess
of clouds in the southern Gulf of Mexico could become 
Tropical Storm Alex.

 Officially, the hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean side of North America begins today, June 1, and there's already a tropical storm threat to talk about. 

The National Hurricane Center is giving a disturbance near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.  If it does form, it appears it's poised to give Florida  and Cuba an absolute drenching. 

At least a half foot of rain is forecast in both places, which of course could lead to some pretty nasty flooding. 

If this thing develops into a tropical storm, they'll name it Alex. It'll probably fall short of becoming a full-fledged hurricane, as strong upper level winds are and will be interfering with its development. That's typical early in the hurricane season.  

Usually upper level winds are stronger and ocean temperatures are cooler in June than in, say, August.  That's why early season storms are usually (but not always!) weaker than the powerhouse hurricanes later in the summer and early autumn. 

That said, there's two factors that are helping wannabe Alex.  Ocean temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal. Plus, wannabe Alex is getting energy from what once was Hurricane Agatha.

On the Pacific Ocean side of North America, hurricane season starts May 15, and we've already had our first hurricane. This was definitely an exception to the rule that June tropical systems are weak.

Agatha was the strongest landfalling hurricane in May with winds of at least 105 mph when it came ashore a couple days ago in the southern state of Oaxaca, Mexico. It killed at least 11 people and 20 people are still missing after the flooding and mudslides caused by Agatha. 

Agatha fell apart over the mountains of southern Mexico as all landfalling hurricanes lose steam over land. But its remnant energy is feeding into the disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula, which could help wannabe Alex get its act together. 

If wannabe Alex develops into a tropical storm, it won't be the earliest on record. Despite the fact that hurricane season officially starts on June 1, there have been tropical storms in May. There has even been three Atlantic Ocean tropical storms recorded in April, the most recent being in 2017.   

The National Hurricane Center predict this year will be another very busy one in the Atlantic Ocean, due to a number of factors. Those include a continuing La Nina global weather pattern and ocean temperatures that are mostly running warmer than normal. 

A Hot, Dry May And Warm Spring In Vermont Ends With A Cool, Wet Start To June

Some convection fires up near Burlington on May 14
after a record hot day.  May tied for the fourth hottest
on record in Burlington. 

UPDATE:

I found some other interesting climatology out of Burlington for this spring.

Turns out spring, 2022 was the fifth warmest on record in Burlington, with a mean temperature of 47.7 degrees  This takes into account meteorological spring, which runs from March 1 through May 31.

We've had back to back toasty springs. In 2021, spring was the seventh warmest.

As noted below, data for Burlington goes back to the 1880s. In keeping with climate change trends, four of the top 10 warmest springs in Burlington have happened since 2010.

The last time we had a spring that was among the top 10 coldest was in 1972. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 It's cool and cloudy in Vermont this morning, as a few showers and thunderstorms race southeastward across the Green Mountain State. 

This state of affairs will continue today, as the disturbances race along yesterday's wrong way cold front, not stalled just to out south and west. 

Pretty much all of us will get wet today, with probably the heaviest rain I'm guessing to be along and south and west of Interstate 89.   It'll only get into the 60s today, which is definitely chillier than normal.

I guess Ma Nature needs a break from May, which was very warm and dry across Vermont. 

Burlington ended up tying the record for the fourth hottest May, with a mean temperature of 62.2 degrees. In keeping with the climate change trend, four of the top 10 hottest Mays in Burlington have occurred since 2012.  Records go back to the 1880s. 

In Burlington, ten days reached to 80 degrees or more, which is impressive.  Burlington had three record highs in a row on May 12-14, the first time there were three consecutive record highs since September, 2017

Although Burlington did not reach 90 degrees during May, we came close. Plus, Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Bennington, along with other Vermont communities, did reach 90 degrees during the month. 

Everybody in Vermont was at least three degrees warmer than normal in May. Remember, this is the warmer "new" normal that started last year.  This new normal takes into account the average of the years 1990 to 2020, which were warmer than previous periods. 

Rainfall was unfortunately on the light side, except around Rutland, which was bullseyed by intense thunderstorms at mid month. Most towns in Vermont were nearly an inch on the light side. 

Partly because of the unusual warmth in May, scattered severe thunderstorms made appearances, especially at mid-month and in scattered fashion on May 21. 

Despite a relative lack of rain in May, Vermont is not under any kind of drought or real drought risk as U.S. Drought Monitor maps indicate.

You never know what the new month will ultimately bring to Vermont, but signs are fairly encouraging. We have several chances of rain over the next week, starting with today. Long range forecasts into mid June call for near average temperatures and somewhat wetter than average conditions in Vermont.

Wrong Way Cold Front Is Here; Weird Temperature Ranges, Uncertain Rainfall Predictions Result

The "wrong way" cold front shows up nicely on
satellite photos today as the northwest to southeast
cloud band. Most of the clouds are north of the
actual front, which has already made its way into
parts of Vermont.

 The back door or wrong way cold front we've talked about for the past few days is in Vermont this morning, and temperatures will be all over the place in the Green Mountain State today. 

Basically, we can expect highs in the mid 60s to mid 80s today, which is quite a range.

Luckily, we can sort of pinpoint who will be warm and who will be relatively cool so that you can make your plans, but this forecast won't be perfect.  The northern Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom will be coolest, with low humidity. Meanwhile low elevations in southern Vermont, like Bennington and Brattleboro, will be warmest. And also on the humid side. 

The trick will be who gets what temperature in the middle? It depends upon when the front moves through. As of 7 a.m., it had already gone through St. Albans, but was just reaching Burlington.

Interestingly, Burlington had an odd, brief warmup before dawn before the cold front arrived. It went from 68 to 77 degrees between 2 and 4 a.m., which is the opposite way temperatures should go in the wee hours of the morning.

Then, once the sun came up, temperatures started falling again, which of course is opposite of how things should go. 

All this means is I'm not super confident in what temperatures will be anywhere in Vermont today. It's a shallow layer of cool air coming in, with a warm layer above it.  The sun is nearing its highest intensity of the year. Will that allow some of the warmer air aloft to mix down?  Probably not much, but enough to make the forecast challenging.  

Parts of central Vermont might see temperatures quickly rise this morning, then settle back this afternoon as the wrong way cold front slowly makes its way southwestward toward Bennington. 

Most of the clouds with this cold front are to its north and east, so we will stay partly sunny today, so no matter what the temperature is, it will be pleasant enough with the sunshine.  Skies might look hazy at times due to wildfire smoke high overhead. Yeah, that's starting again. 

Don't be surprised if some places in the north stay in the low 60s will other pop up into the 70s. It will be that kind of day.

In the warm humid air south, mostly south of Route 4 a couple thunderstorms might pop up this afternoon. One or two of those might be on the strongish side, but most people will escape anything major. 

The lingering front makes Wednesday's forecast tricky, too.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be diving northwest to southeast along or near this stalled wrong way front. The thunderstorms might tend to die out as the hit the cool, stable air over most of Vermont. 

This is where the National Weather Service in South 
Burlington predicts today's "wrong way" cold front
will be at 2 p.m. Warm and humid south of the front,
cool and dry north.

But remember, there's that warm layer just above the shallow chilly air.  That warm air aloft could maintain some thunder, and more importantly some locally heavy downpours early Wednesday and again Wednesday afternoon. 

Most if not all of Vermont will see some rain, but this weather situation makes it almost impossible to tell in advance who gets the heavy downpours and who sees just light rain and sprinkles. 

Some places could see more than an inch of rain out of this.  There's a chance a few spots could see enough rain to cause a few flooding issues.  That's a big maybe but something to watch. All this will be happening under gray skies and cool temperatures. Highs will barely make it 60 north. People in southern valleys will be lucky to see 70.

After Wednesday, we settle back into a period of typical June weather. We'll have a chance of showers almost every day for the next week, but most if not all days won't be washouts. Sunshine will burst out most days, and temperatures will be near normal (highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s most of the time).

MINNESOTA STORM

As expected, Minnesota, and parts of South Dakota were blasted by severe weather. Only a handful of tornadoes have been confirmed so far.  I think as meteorologists pick apart which areas had strong straight line winds and which areas had something else, the confirmed number of tornadoes will go up. 

The lakeside town of Forada, Minnesota, which is very much like the fictional town of Lake Wobegon from the old Prairie Home Companion radio series, was hit hardest, with dozens of homes destroyed or severely damaged. 

Today, we have a threat of severe weather in a band from northern Texas to Michigan.  That moves to western and central New York tomorrow on the warm side of the "wrong way" cold front that's pestering us today. 

Big Midwest Severe Outbreak Underway; "Wrong Way" Cold Front To Protect Us In Vermont

The upper Midwest, especially the areas in 
red and orange, are in for a significant
severe weather outbreak today. Tornadoes,
some of them large, big hail, damaging winds
and flooding are all in play.

UPDATE 5 p.m.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation, or PDS tornado warning for much of Minnesota.

A PDS tornado warning is pretty rare and means forecasters expect several strong to even extreme tornadoes that could have long tracks. 

As of 4:30 p.m. eastern time, several tornado warnings have already been issued in eastern South Dakota and a lot of damage has been initially reported in Sherman, northwest of Sioux Falls. 

I do think that at this point, locations south and west of Sioux Falls are in the clear, but it's going to be a horrible few hours in Minnesota and far eastern North Dakota.

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, that "wrong way" cold front has the makings of creating some strange, but not dangerous weather in Vermont. 

Depending upon where the front is tomorrow afternoon, high temperatures in varying places in Vermont will be somewhere between the mid-60s to near 90.  The coolest readings would probably be in the far northern Champlain Valley and perhaps the Northeast Kingdom.

There's potential, too, for what are known as elevated thunderstorms Wednesday. The cool, stable air near the surface behind the front in Vermont would prevent thunderstorms from forming. But warm, humid air above the shallow cool air could support thunderstorms that form higher up.  Those, if they develop, could produce locally heavy rain and even a little hail. This is not guaranteed, but possible. More details tomorrow morning. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

What will probably be one of the biggest outbreaks of severe weather and tornadoes of the year is underway in the Upper Plains and Midwest, with today expected to be the worst of it.  Minnesota seems to be ground zero, but surrounding states are being pounded, too. 

This all will head east over the next couple of days, but a wrong way cold front looks like it will protect at least most of Vermont from this bad weather. We'll get more into Vermont and New England in a moment. 

First, out West. 

The good news is no known tornadoes developed in Nebraska and South Dakota last night from supercells that formed late in the day. The bad news is there were a few reports of hail five inches in diameter - about the size of a cantaloupe. That had to hurt! 

Since there were only a couple supercells last night in Nebraska, it was both humorous and scary to see easily more than 100 storm chasers clogging the roads near the storm for a view.

We saw several other reports of large hail and damaging winds in Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota yesterday.

Early this morning, another wave of severe thunderstorms was passing through Minnesota. This line has produced wind gusts as high as 84 mph and some large hail.  Unfortunately, this early morning stuff is just an appetizer. 

A well organized and strong for this time of year storm system should gather the right ingredients for a tornado outbreak, especially in western Minnesota, northeastern South Dakota and southeastern South Dakota.

Some of the tornadoes this afternoon and evening could be quite strong and long-lasting.  The larger towns in this area that is particularly under the gun are Fargo, North Dakota, Moorhead, Minnesota and Brookings and Watertown, South Dakota. 

Since this storm has a lot of moisture to work with, there's a real threat of flooding again in parts of already soggy eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota.

The National Weather Service office in Grand Forks, North Dakota, whose coverage area includes western Minnesota, is not playing games. You don't often see stern wording such as the following from NWS offices

"(There is) potential for damaging winds up to 80 mph, hail over 2 inches in diameter and tornadoes possibly significant.......This looks to be a particularly dangerous afternoon and evening for all modes of severe weather. People need to pay close attention to the weather and have a way to receive warnings. Make sure to go through  your severe weather action plan, especially for the lakes country of Minnesota. Have a shelter where you can go if dangerous weather approaches. Do not wait until it is too late to get your plan in place."

The severe weather will shift east tomorrow and Wednesday, though it won't be quite as intense as it is today. Which brings us to what's going on around where we live in Vermont. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

By Wednesday, a severe weather threat will
reach much of New York, but at this point
it looks like a "wrong way" cold front 
will prevent that risk from 
reaching into Vermont.

Sunday was about as perfect an early summer day as you can imagine in Vermont. Warm temperatures, blue skies, pretty puffy clouds, low humidity. It was the total package.

Today will be pretty good, too, though high clouds might dim the sun at times this afternoon.  Most valleys should get up to 80 degrees or so today. 

Then the weather in the Northeast gets interesting, but here in Vermont, very likely not dangerous. 

We've been talking about that "Wrong Way" cold front for a few days now. It's a back door cold front, coming at us from the northeast and east, rather than west the way cold fronts are "supposed" to act.

The wrong way cold front will probably sweep southwestward and make it down to southwestern Vermont and the southern Adirondacks by tomorrow afternoon.  

That will keep temperatures suppressed, ranging from the 60s in the Northeast Kingdom to the 70s for most of us. Far southwestern Vermont might get into the upper 80s ahead of the front.

It will get really interesting in southern New England, where some areas will see temperatures rise into the upper 80s, only to crash into the mid 60s within an hour or two as the front moves in from the east. 

Meanwhile, that severe weather from the Midwest will be moving our way.

It turns out that Wrong Way cold front might be a bit of a savior for most of Vermont. Warm, humid unstable air will be in place Wednesday west of that stalled wrong way front in western and central New York. That will support thunderstorms, some with damaging winds and large hail in that area.

However, the air behind the wrong way front, where most of Vermont will stay, will be quite stable, at least in the lower levels of the atmosphere. As the thunderstorms in New York and Ontario encounter the stable air here, they'll just change into regular old showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. 

We will have to watch weather the wrong way front wiggles back toward the northeast a bit on Wednesday. If that happen, southwestern Vermont might be in play after all for a few strong storms. We shall see!

After that, we're in for a spell of pretty average early June weather for the rest of the week and next weekend.