Mosquitoes In Iceland? Climate Change Adds Bugs To "Cold" Nation

Thanks to a warming planet, mosquitoes have been
found for the first time in Iceland. The bugs, and
the diseases they carry, have been heading into 
colder areas largely because of climate change. 

 Mosquitoes have invaded Iceland. 

The cold island in the North Atlantic was considered too nippy for mosquitoes to take hold. 

But thanks to climate change, it's toasty enough in Iceland for those nasty little buggers. 

Per ABC News:

"The disease-carrying insects twas first spotted by insect enthusiast Bjorn Hjalstason, who posed to Facebook group 'insects in Iceland' about a 'strange fly' he spotted on Oct. 16."

Since then, three mosquitoes, two females, one male, have been caught in Iceland. 

ABC News again: 

"The mosquitoes are Culiseta annulata, a cold-tolerant species that live in the Palearctic region, which includes northern Africa, Europe and Asia north of the Himalayas, according to the National Institutes of Health."

It's the most common mosquito in the UK, and has been found in Canada and the northern United States. 

Until recently, Iceland was too cold for mosquitoes. They breed in warm, stagnant water, like in buckets, drainage ditches, flower pots and discarded tires. 

In the good old days, standing water in Iceland was too cold for mosquitoes. But thanks to climate change, not anymore. A mosquito "dumb" enough to find itself in Iceland is no longer guaranteed an immediate, frigid death. 

Or at least its offspring might survive. They'll survive in basements and barns and other protected places around Iceland. 

Pretty much the whole world is warming due to climate change. Iceland is warming at a rate four times faster than the rest of the northern hemisphere.

This year, Iceland had a long, hot summer, at least by their standards. It started early, with a May heat wave bringing Icelandic temperatures to as high as 80 degrees, which was by far unprecedented for that time of year. 

The early start of this year's Iceland summer might have helped mosquitoes gain a foothold. 

MOSQUITO DISEASES HEAD NORTH

Meanwhile, places that already have mosquitoes are finding that diseases spread by these bugs are also spreading north, thanks to climate change.  For the first time, mosquitoes in the UK had the West Nile virus, which in rare cases can cause severe illness or even death in humans. 

Experts also said mosquito-borne disease like dengue and chikungunya could become endemic in Europe soon as the continent warms. 

A type of insect called the tiger mosquito is moving north into Europe as the area becomes toasty enough to allow the mosquito to survive.  Dengue outbreaks have already hit Italy, Croatia, France and Spain. 

Here in the United States, the tiger mosquito (the one that spreads dengue) is on the move north in tune with climate change. They've been spotted as far north as southern New England.

As they move north, subsequent generations of this mosquito evolve to survive slightly lower temperatures. 

That makes them more likely to stick around. 

Because of climate change here in Vermont, we're getting warmer and wetter, the drought this summer and autumn notwithstanding. The hotter and soggier it gets, the more mosquitoes thrive. So if those bugs bother you every summer, they're going to bother you even more, and for a greater portion of the year as time goes by. 

 

Some More Showers, Even Thunder Today, Adding To Needed Vermont Rains

After the rains in my back yard, St. Albans, Vermont 
on Tuesday. Got out there between the the rainfall
Monday and today to get a little fall cleanup done
Was nice to be in such beautiful surroundings. 

We have more rain in the Vermont forecast today, which is great for those of you, ( i.e. everybody)
who hates our deep northern New England drought. 

It won't be a huge dump of water, but any rain is good rain. 

The best rain was of course on Monday. Final rainfall totals are in. 

The best rains were along and just west of the central and northern Green Mountains, and in the northern Champlain Valley.  Some of these totals were really impressive.

Nashville, which is a section of Jericho, Vermont was the big winner with 3.79 inches, though I did receive an unofficial report of 4.25 inches out of Georgia, Vermont. 

Other big totals included 3.55 inches in Warren; 3.44 inches in Chittenden; 3.17 inches in Underhill and 3.16 inches in Hancock.

It was nice to see rivers with actual water in them after that rain. 

TODAY

The amount of rain we'll see today won't come anywhere near what we saw Monday. The National Weather Service is going for maybe a tenth of an inch south of Route 9 near the Massachusetts border a quarter inch give or take between Route 9 and Route 2 and perhaps a third of an inch north of Route 2.

But that's broad brush. This is going to be a showery type thing, so some places will get extra rain, other places will miss out. Kind of like a summer cold front. 

Total rainfall from Monday's storm. Heaviest rain was
in the central and northern Green Mountains and
northern Champlain Valley. A few spots got more
than three inches of badly needed rain 

We even have a chance of a few thunderstorms mixed in. It's kind of a dynamic storm even if its moisture supply isn't huge. Since it's a little chilly, a few storms might feature a bit of small hail.

Don't worry, if you do see hail, it would be the size of peas, not Volkswagens. So nothing damaging or scary. 

We've already seen some brief downpours in northwestern Vermont a little after dawn today. It's a sign the bulk of today's action will be between now and mid afternoon. 

We'll see a lull late this afternoon through most of tomorrow morning. We'll only see widely scattered light showers.

Showers will pick up again tomorrow afternoon. They will be light, though. Just chilly and annoying. We'll be lucky to see another tenth of an inch of rain.  It'll be cold enough on the Green Mountain summits for a little snow.

DRY TIMES AGAIN?

Unfortunately, we are yet to fully escape the weather pattern that encouraged this drought. Since at least August we have repeatedly had huge honking high pressure systems stall over us or in Quebec. 

At first, on Friday and Saturday, it will stay generally cloudy, with maybe a sprinkle or mountain snow flurry or two. Then, nothing. 

These highs have featured super dry air. They also deflect any storms that want to come our way, and eat up any moisture that wants to drift up toward northern New England. 

We have yet another huge honking high that will set up shop over us and Quebec beginning Saturday. That'll keep us in Vermont dry for at least a week.

One cold front will try to approach us next Thursday but that high will probably make those go poof before they get here. Then the big honking high will get reinforced. So after the sprinkles this Friday or Saturday, expect no rain until at least November 1.

That's a full week without precipitation. We've had longer stretches. And since it's late fall, the sun won't dry us out as fast as it could in the summer and early autumn.

Plus, long range forecasts are somewhat encouraging, leaning toward above normal precipitation for at least a little while in early November. 

The drought will linger for a long time yet. But fingers crossed, I'm hoping the drought peaked last week.  Maybe we'll slowly improve. 

The newest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out tomorrow. It will reflect conditions through yesterday. I'll provide an update once it's available 

Tropical Storm Melissa Forms In Caribbean; Future Track A Toss Up

The forecast track of a tropical storm or hurricane 
usually takes the form of a "cone of uncertainty."
The future track of Tropical Storm Melissa is
SO uncertain that the cone of uncertainty is a
circle, meaning it could go anywhere. 

 
was born this morning in the central Caribbean Sea, but where this storm will eventually end up is anybody's guess.

The disturbance that grew into Melissa had been rocketing westward across the Atlantic Ocean. It was moving so fast, it couldn't really develop into analyzing. 

Now, the storm's forward speed is slowing way down, so it has been able to grow into a tropical storm. As of 11 a.m. this morning top wind speeds were 50 mph.  

The National Hurricane Center alerts the public about a predicted path of a tropical storm or hurricane with something called a cone of uncertainty. 

It's called that because the graphic looks like a cone. The middle of the cone is where the official forecast is, but areas either side of the path are shaded in to reflect the possibility the storm could go to the left or right of its predicted path. 

Forecasters usually know where a tropical system is headed over the next 12 to 24 hours so the range of predicted paths is initially small. A few days out, there's more uncertainty, so the areas on a map shaded in where the system might go is wider. Hence the cone of uncertainty. 

I bring this up because today's "cone of uncertainty" for Melissa is essentially a circle. Which basically means it could go anywhere.  It's the weirdest cone of uncertainty I can remember with any tropical storm or hurricane. 

Steering winds in the atmosphere are weakening so it's hard to say which direction Melissa might go. That said, even though steering winds are weak,  there are fairly strong winds blowing the tops of Melissa's thunderstorms askew, so the storm might not strengthen all that fast. Plus, dry air might get injested into Melissa, which would also slow a strengthening trend. 

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Melissa shows it's kind of
a mess, as strong upper level winds are screwing
up the thunderstorms that power the storm. 

Whether Melissa grows into a hurricane also depends on where it goes. If it gets stuck over land, it would weaken, or at least not really strengthen. 

On the other hand, the Caribbean waters are at record warm levels for this time of year.  If it stays over the water, there's a chance this thing could get pretty strong. 

Super warm water is jet fuel for tropical systems, so if Melissa ends up growing into a pretty good size hurricane, I wouldn't be surprised.

Since Melissa will be moving so slowly, any island it nears will get incredible boatloads of rain. 

 Big flash floods and landslides are already in the forecast though this weekend in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 

A hurricane watch is also in effect in parts of Haiti. Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch.  

It's going to take a few days to figure out where Melissa is headed and whether it would be a threat to the United States. If it does eventually make it to the U.S., the most likely state to be hit would be Florida. But even there, the chance looks reasonably low at this point. 

Glorious Rain Soaks Much Of Vermont, Slightly Denting Drought

One of a series of downpours approaching West Rutland,
Vermont Monday morning. This one even had sort of
a shelf cloud feature you'd see 
with a summer thunderstorm, 

One of the most beautiful sounds I've heard in ages came while I was watching "The Voice" last evening. 

Nope, it wasn't the talented singers on the TV screen. It was the roar of a heavy, long lasting downpour overhead on the roof of the house. 

We got a lot of rain, with a grand, unofficial total of 2.8 inches of rain here in St. Albans. 

Rainfall reports for Vermont were still sparse as I wrote this around 8 a.m. today. 

But it seems rainfall totals were impressive across all but far southern Vermont. Almost everyone along and north of Route 4 had at least an inch of rain.

 In the Green Mountains and in northwestern Vermont, it was closer to 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain. There were spot reports of 3.5 inches. Plattsburgh, New York set a rainfall record for the date of 2.1 inches. 

Other totals include 1.60 inches in Burlington, 1.43 inches in Rutland, and 1.27 inches in Montpelier. 

If we were not in a deep drought, we might have even had some minor flooding this morning. 

The drought is so severe, though, that I'll bet the rain, as wonderful as it was, only put a small dent in the drought. We'll need several more storms this fall and winter to get us out of trouble with dry ground, empty wells and low water. 

Still, the rain had some immediate benefits. 

Satellite view of Monday's storm, taken around 4 p.m.
Judging by this image, I'd guess the center of the 
storm was about over Fair Haven, Vermont at the time.

A fire sparked by ammunition Sunday at the Ethan Allen Firing Range in Jericho is contained. Because of live ordnance, it's too dangerous to send firefighters in. But Monday's rain certainly helped.

Several wild and forest fires blew up in northern New York Sunday. The largest ones were in Plattsburgh, Hogansburg and Bloomingdale, New York, according to WPTZ . 

The fires were being brought under control Sunday night, but torrential rains in eastern New York Monday had to  have helped immensely. 

THE STORM

The storm system Monday was a best case scenario for all but southern Vermont. 

The center of circulation passed up through western Vermont. Ahead of the storm, a feed of deep Atlantic moisture swept northwestward into all but southwest Vermont. 

During the evening, what is known as a deformation zone formed mostly in northwest Vermont and northeast New York. The storm was generally heading slowly north, while moisture was wrapping around heading westward. 

This stretched the atmosphere in a sense, helping create rising air over the northern Champlain Valley. Rising air helps created rainfall, especially if a lot of moisture is already in the area. Which is why the rain was drumming so hard on my metal roof in St. Albans while I was watching TV last evening. 

It was interesting to watch the radar of the rainfall yesterday afternoon. By 4 p.m. the storm center was close to Rutland. Rain was moving southeast to northwest roughly along and north of Interstate 89.  South of Interstate 89, showers were traveling in the exact opposite direction, northwest to southeast.  

Around 8:30 last night, the rain let up for a little while here in St. Albans. The radar showed heavier rain swirling in a circle centered more or less on St. Albans,  meaning the storm was nearly overhead. 

Far southwest Vermont missed out on that initial moisture feed off the Atlantic. And places like Bennington were too far south to enjoy much rain from that deformation zone. So they only received 0.34 inches of rain. 

We hope the Bennington area gets hit with a storm soon, but there's no immediate sign of that. But Vermont is still in for a little bit more rain. 

UPCOMING

We don't have another drenching storm on the horizon to batter the drought even more. But it's going to rain again this week, so that'll help hold the bit of gain we got yesterday. 

A few light showers were lingering in northern Vermont this morning, but those should evaporate before noon.

Rainfall forecast now through early Friday. This is subject
to change, but right now we're looking at maybe a 
quarter inch additional rain in western Vermont 
with up to half an inch east. 

We'll see some sun behind our big soaker of a storm today and it will be mild-ish for this time of year, with highs reaching the low 60s

Enjoy today. because it's going to get chilly and damp. A slow, lumbering storm -much weaker than the one we just had, should spread frequent showers across Vermont tomorrow. 

This thing may even have enough energy to spit out a rumble or two of thunder. 

This thing will linger through Thursday night or Friday, so expect continued light showers to continue until then. 

Rainfall won't amount to much, but anything is still good at this point. Early guesses that between late tonight and Friday morning, western Vermont could see a quarter inch or so of rain with up to a half inch east. 

It still looks like mountain summits might get cold enough to see a little snow. It'll only accumulate near the tippy top of the highest peaks. So you won't have to worry about winter driving. But the mountain snow might get you thinking about, and putting yourself in the market for winter tires. 

It's coming sooner than you'd think.  

Coral And Antarctic Sea Ice Climate Change Tipping Points Underway?

Coral bleached out from exposure to too-hot water
If this goes on for too long, the coral dies. 
Coral reefs worldwide are now suffering
from big bleaching events. 

Scientist are eyeing coral reefs and Antarctic ice more than ever lately as the two wildly different parts of nature seem to be headed toward what is known as climate tipping points. 

Climate tipping points are defined as critical thresholds that, when exceeded, can create huge, irreversible changes in ecosystems. 

Recent studies have found that we are at, or about to reach two big climate tipping points. One in the tropics, one in the icy environment around Antarctica. 

All this is part of the second Global Tipping Points report from the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute in England. The report examines some of the fundamental processes that support life on the planet and how close they are to suffering permanent damage. 

CORAL REEFS

In recent years, we've heard about coral bleaching, in which these organisms lose their colorful appearance and turn ghostly white and die, due to the water temperatures being too hot to support them. 

As climate change warms the oceans, these bleaching or diebacks are becoming more common. 

Now, according to CBS News:

"Scientists have determined that the 'tipping point' for coral reefs begins the global warming reaches 1.2 degrees Celsius, with somewhere between 70 and 90 percent of coral dying when that number climbs to 1.5 degrees. 

About 84 percent of the world's coral reefs had bleaching this year in the most intense event of its kind in history, according to the International Coral Reef Initiative."

Sure, coral reefs are pretty, but most of us won't get to see them. So if they die back, is it really a big deal? 

The answer is a loud yes. Coral reefs provide habitat for about 25 percent of all  underwater species. They also support the livelihoods of about a billion people. 

The past two years have been the warmest recorded on Earth. Though 2025 will be a tiny bit cooler than the previous two years, it won't be by much. With such intense warmth, coral reefs have reached their breaking point. 

ANTARCTIC ICE 

This chart shows pretty stable levels of ice
around Antarctica until around 2000. Then
it began to increase. But starting a
decade ago, the amount of ice began to
drop sharply. 

A paper in the journal Nature describes previously unnoted details of interrelated effects of abruptly melting ice. 

The study in the journal Nature stated: 

"A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects its more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversable than Arctic sea ice loss." It also said.

 Evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. "

According to Reuters, the study gathered data from observations, ice cores, and ship logbooks to charge long-term changes in the area of sea ice, putting into context a rapid decline in recent years. 

That decline means a smaller ice sheet at the bottom of the world. Ice reflects the sun's heat back, to space, So less ice in and around Antarctica means more warmth is sucked in by the planet, making climate change that much worse. 

Reduced Antarctic ice  can shift ocean currents, which changes the distribution of krill, phytoplankton and other sources of nutrition for larger animals in the region, like emperor penguins. 

The amount of Antarctic ice remained pretty stable for at least the century ending around 2000, making life relatively predictable for the region's ecosystem.

Then. as the new century began,  the level of Antarctic ice began to increase, contrary to what you'd expect from climate change. Scientists suspect increased snowfall due to a warming world's ability to produce excess precipitation, in this case, snow, was partly responsible.

After that, suddenly, around a decade ago, the amount of Antarctic ice began to plummet rapidly. The amount of ice is now well below where it was during most of the 20th century. The decline so far shows no real sign of stopping or slowing down. 

The loss of coral reefs and the Antarctic ice situation are two examples of how one effect of climate change can have a snowball effect, making other aspects of a warming world worse, and also accelerate the rate of warming. 

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Dry, Warm Windy Sunday Yields To A Rainy Vermont Monday.

Lingering fall foliage near Proctor, Vermont Sunday, which
might have been the last truly warm day of 2025 as highs
got well into the 70s. We're now going into a wet week
which is great, given the deep drought Vermont
is still experiencing. 

Sunday brought Vermont and surrounding areas a last gasp of summer. The high temperature Sunday in Burlington reached a balmy 76 degrees, just four degrees short of the record for the date. 

Over in northern New York, it was even warmer. Massena reached 82 degrees, enough to break the record high for the date. 

The wind and the warmth brought us a high fire danger Sunday. One fire broke out in the woods at the Vermont National Guard Ethan Allan Firing Range in Jericho.  The Guard was dealing with it instead of local fire departments, because it is a firing range, after all. There's the risk of live ordnance. 

At last report, fire departments in Underhill and Jericho were standing by, but not involved in battling the blaze, WCAX reports. Hikers atop Mount Mansfield could clearly see a large plume of smoke rising from the area. 

TODAY

The warm air is lingering into this morning. At dawn, temperatures in much of Vermont were in the low 60s, which is something you'd expect that time of day in July, not the second half of October.

 It won't warm up all that much today because of the clouds and rain, but highs in the mid and upper 60s are still pretty comfortable for this time of year. 

The big news is the badly needed rain, which was arriving as scheduled as dawn broke today. 

If that fire is still burning at the Firing Range in Jericho, the Vermont National Guard is still going to get an assist from the skies today.  

We're still expected a little more than an inch of rain
through Thursday morning in all but far southern 
Vermont. This is no drought buster, but at least
it'll prevent things from getting even worse. 

Early this morning, the showers were pretty light and scattered, moving rapidly south to north across Vermont. It appears the rain will stay showery, but become much more widespread and occasionally fairly heavy starting mid morning and into the afternoon. 

One change in the forecast from yesterday is it looks like most of today's rain will stay out of far southern Vermont.  Yesterday, we thought the heaviest rain would hit the south most, with less north far north. . 

This morning's forecast is the opposite. Through tomorrow morning, as little as a quarter inch of rain might fall along and south of Route 9, though east facing slopes of the Green Mountains should do a little better.  Yesterday, we were thinking those areas could get close to an inch. 

The rainfall is still forecast to amount to an inch, give or take,  in many places along and north of Route 4. Even the Northeast Kingdom, which was forecast to see a half inch of rain, is now expecting maybe three quarters of an inch.

It's a pretty dynamic weather system, so it might power up enough to give us a few rumbles of thunder here and there. Nothing severe, though.  

The National Weather Service has removed the wind advisory from the western slopes of the Green Mountains. It won't be as gusty as first thought.  

WET WEATHER CONTINUES

Though we won't get rid of the drought, this will be the best week we've had in months for rainfall. After today, we have more shots at rain all week. Which is good, because we need frequent bouts of rain to ease the drought. 

For awhile, anyway, we're out of the pattern of long, weeks long dry spells between rainfall. After today, the rainfall won't be heavy, and there will be winners and losers when it comes to amounts. But there's decent chances rain Wednesday, Thursday and maybe Friday. 

Tuesday will be the driest day of the week. And the last warm day. Today's storm will be gone, and the next one coming in from the west won't be here yet. So well, have a pleasant late October day: Partly sunny skies, and high-up in the 60. 

The thing coming in from the west is a slow, lumbering thing. It'll be mostly cloudy, with frequent showers Wednesday and Thursday. The best chance showers and the most precipitation will be in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Total precipitation Wednesday through Friday looks to be as little as a tenth to a quarter an inch in southeast Vermont and maybe parts of the Champlain Valley, with a half inch or more in the northern and central Green Mountains. 

Some of that precipitation in the mountains will probably be in the form of snow. It's that time of year, folks. I expect the mountain summits to have their first real accumulating snow of the year. It will only be a few inches at most, but it's something. 

For us valley dwellers, it'll be our introduction to November. Cloudy, cool, drizzly. Usually, ,that's depressing. But in a drought year, we'll take it! 

Can Dusting Cropland With Crushed Up Volcanic Rock Ease Climate Change?

A truck spreads crushed basalt rock over a Brazilian
farm field. The idea is supposed to combat climate
change by running weathered rock into the oceans
where it is stored out of the atmosphere so 
that it can't affect global temperatures. 

 Across big stretches agricultural land in southern Brazil, a company called Tereradot is spreading dust made of crushed volcanic rock all over the place. 

It's not some odd form of fertilizer. It's even weirder: It's an effort to combat climate change. 

As the Washington Post explains: 

"As rain percolates throughout the soil, chemical reactions pull carbon from the air and convert it into bicarbonate ions that eventually wash into the ocean, where the carbon remains stored."

Spreading the dust greatly accelerates a process that usually takes thousands or even millions of years to complete. 

WaPo goes on:

"The technique, known as ''enhanced rock weathering' is emerging as a promising approach to lock away carbon on a massive scale. Some researchers estimate the method has the potential to sequester billions of tons of carbon, helping slow global climate trends. 

Other major projects are underway across the globe and have collectively raised over a quarter billion dollars."

Rock weathering is a natural, but slow process in which rock breaks down, gets washed into rivers and eventually the ocean, which stores the carbon in the water, out of the atmosphere. When temperatures are high, the weathering speeds up. But not nearly enough to combat climate change. 

Enter a company called Terradot to greatly accelerating that slow process. They take basalt, which weathers easily, and crush up until it's the texture of baby powder. That increases its surface area. The rock is then spread out on the ground in hot, humid places so the pace of the weathering is maximized. 

Most of Terradot's work is happening in Brazil. Much of the cropland has naturally acidic soils, but the crushed up basalt balances that acidity, helping with crop yields.

Brazil has a lot of basalt quarries, as the rock is used in construction. Grinding and crushing the rock for construction leaves a lot of pieces of waste basalt. Terradot buys that waste, turns it into dust and spreads it on fields for their climate change control efforts. 

The powdered basalt is free for farmers. Terradot bears the cost of shipping and spreading the rock dust.  

As cool as it sounds, this idea is no slam dunk against climate change.  How accurately can anyone measure how much this process removes from the atmosphere. Is it cost effective? And scaling up the enhanced rock weathering all over the world is a logistical nightmare. 

Scientists want to see more data to determine whether the basalt dust gets rid of as much atmospheric carbon as startups like Terradot claim.  

Sunday In Vermont: Dry, Gusty Fire Risk: Monday In Vermont: A Quick Soaking

The latest National Weather Service forecast rainfall
map for now through early Tuesday. A nice inch or so
over central and southern Vermont, with three quarters
of an inch north, with less in the Northeast Kingdom
No drought buster, but a bit of a help. 
We'll take it!!

 Today and tomorrow in Vermont will be polar opposites of each other, at least in terms of the weather.

Today, we'll need to worry about drought, gusty winds, dry air and wildfires. On Monday, it will be downpours and windy again. 

TODAY

Out ahead of our badly needed rain, the wind is really picking up out there, especially in the Champlain Valley and high elevations. 

It'll be windy enough, and dry enough for the National Weather Service to trigger a somewhat rare red flag warning for central and northern Vermont. 

That means  there's a sky high danger of brush and wildfires. If  a small fire gets going, the wind will make it hard or nearly impossible to control. 

The most dangerous time for fires today are between 1 and 8 p.m. when winds will be strongest and the relative humidity will be lowest. 

The red flag warning might be extended to southern Vermont later this morning. Even if that alert is not extended south today, the fire danger will be way up there. 

Today's is probably the best day this year to be super careful with outdoor fire sources, be they barbecues, campfires, sparks, cigarettes, you name it. We'll remind you again all of Vermont has an outdoor burn ban until further notice. 

Other than the fire risk, enjoy the dry weather and the warmth. Temperatures should get up at least into the low 70s in many areas of the state, especially south and the Champlain Valley. It's not close to record breaking, but still plenty toasty for the third week in October. 

MONDAY RAIN

The bulk of the rain will come at us in a southwest to northeast direction. The band of rain might, if we're lucky, briefly slow down its forward progress right over Vermont, which would be great if it happens. 

In general, we're expecting about three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain, give or take. Parts of southern Vermont might see close to 1.5 inches, and some area of the Northeast Kingdom might only see a half inch. 

Overall, the rainfall totals aren't  huge, but definitely not bad, either. Believe it or not, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of flash floods over us Monday, because the rain will be briefly heavy. 

That said, I strongly doubt there will be any problems, other than some deep puddles on the roads.  You might also hear a rumble of thunder or two, because this will be a pretty dynamic system. 

Monday does look like a washout, but the period of really heavy rain should be pretty short in any given area of the state. As it stands now, the best chances of heavy rain are from about dawn to early afternoon. The rain could turn lighter and more showery during the afternoon, especially west and south. 

Gusty winds will continue to buffet us,, especially in the morning and along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains from a little after midnight overnight to a little before noon tomorrow. In towns like Bristol, Underhill, Cambridge and Enosburg, winds could gust to 50 mph or a little more, which could send a couple trees or power lines crashing to the ground here and there.

The rest of the week continues to look unsettled, with shower chances every day. Again, no drought buster, but a help! 

 

Heads Up Vermont: Fire Weather Watch In Effect Sunday Before Rains Hit

This is what you get in a drought. 

An autumn forest fire on Robbins Mountain near
Richmond, Vermont back in 2016.  Similar scenes
are possible tomorrow in Vermont amid dry 
conditions and gusty winds. A fire weather
watch is in effect on Sunday. 

Even if you do get a little rain, the fire risk is always present, until you soak things down enough to get the forests good and wet. 

Spoiler: Vermont's forests are nowhere near good and wet. 

And so it goes, the National Weather Service has issued a fire weather watch for Vermont running through Sunday afternoon and evening. 

Warm temperatures, dry air, drought ground, lots of dead leaves and weeds on the ground and gusty winds will all combine to give us the risk of fast-spreading brush fires. 

During a drought like the one we're having, underground roots and fallen forest trees and branches also catch fire easily and burn hot. Normally, that stuff is too wet to burn much. But now it's not, so if a fire starts, it won't be just surface leaves and twigs. Chances are it'll be that bigger stuff, which is much harder to extinguish. 

Meanwhile, four days of dry, breezy weather has taken all the moisture out of those leaves that are falling from the trees and blowing around on the ground. Once those catch, you're off to the races. 

A fire weather watch means conditions for blazes are possible. The National Weather Service will take another look at the conditions early Sunday morning. If those expectations of dry, windy weather still look good, they'll issue a red flag warning. 

Red flag warnings mean there is a real threat of easy fire ignitions. And fires would spread rapidly. Especially since winds in many spots should gust to 30 or 35 mph. We might even have gusts higher than that in the Champlain Valley. 

All of Vermont is under a burn ban, so you can set your brush piles alight. I have a brush pile ready to go, but I'm waiting until there's a decent snow cover on the ground to set mine on fire. 

For gawd's sake, on Sunday,  be careful with sparks, and don't chuck your cigarette butt out of the truck or car window. 

There's all kinds of other weird precautions you wouldn't think of. Like don't park your car on or near tall, dry grass. The hot stuff under the car could set all that on fire. Lawn mower or metal weed whacker blades can also create a spark if they hit rocks. Maybe postpone that type of yard clean up until it's a little wetter. 

It still looks like some wonderful rain will enter the picture late Sunday night or Monday. The rain will be no drought buster, not even close. But at least it will tamp down the fire risk for awhile.   

At Least 170 U.S. Hospitals At Risk Of Floods

Unicoi County Hospital in Erwin, Tennessee submerged
in floodwaters during Hurricane Helene last year.
Researchers say 170 U.S. hospitals are at risk
for flooding, some of them not in flood plains. 

A new study by KFF Health News has determined that 170 hospitals throughout the United States are vulnerable to flooding. 

The hospitals, totaling nearly 30,000 patient beds, face risks from significant and dangerous flooding, based on data from Fathom, a company considered a leader in flood simulation. 

Evacuating a hospital during a flood or other disaster is no easy feat. Picture trying to get critically ill people, hooked up to medical equipment out of a crumbling hospital in a hurry. So you can see why this is such a scary issue. 

None of the 170 hospitals in the list were in Vermont. For some reason here in the Green Mountain State, we tend to build hospitals on hills. 

According to KFF Health News:

"Much of this risk to hospitals is not captured by flood maps issues by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which have served as the nations de facto tool for flood estimation for half a century, despite being incomplete and sometimes decades out of date.

As FEMA maps have become divorced from the reality of a changing climate, private companies like Fathom have filled the gap with simulations of future floods. But many of their predictions are behind a paywall, leaving the public mostly reliant on free, significantly limited government maps."

Of the 170 hospitals described by KFF Health News as being at risk, one third are in places FEMA has not defined as flood hazard areas. 

The United States has already experienced tragedies and near misses from hospital flooding. 

During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, flooding at the New Orleans Memorial Medical Center left 45 people dead, including some patients. 

Last year, during Hurricane Helene, helicopters had to rescue dozens of people from the roof of Unicoi County Hospital in Erwin, Tennessee. Luckily, in that instance, nobody died.

The risk of flooded hospitals comes as the Trump administration slashed federal agencies like NOAA and FEMA that forecast and respond to extreme weather.

FEMA just responded with a quote they always use when asked about their function and the effects of cutbacks and fired employees. 

They just said criticism of FEMA is just "bureaucrats who presided over decades of inefficiency." It's their boilerplate now. 

As climate change keeps taking hold, storms will continue to become stronger and stronger, dumping more and more rain and causing bigger and bigger floods.

That's a particular concern in  Charleston, West Virginia, where a single storm could flood five of the city's six hospitals at once, along with many of the city's schools, churches and fire departments.

As it is, floods routinely crash down out of the mountains and hollows in West Virginia, so Charleston is vulnerable. Wheeling, West Virginia served as a for example earlier this year.  In June a flash flood in and around Wheeling killed at least six people. 

Of course, closing a hospital in a flood plain and building a new one elsewhere is extremely expensive. 

You can try flood proofing a hospital, which is also expensive, but maybe doable.

As KFF Health News reports, an example is the former Coney Island Hospital in New York. It was badly flooded in Superstorm Sandy in 2012. 

The hospital reinvented itself as the Ruth Bader Ginsburg hospital, after a $923 million reconstruction project that included a four-foot flood wall and patient areas in elevated areas above the first floor. 

The hospital hasn't really been tested yet in a flood though. 

There's MUCH more from KFF Health News regarding these potentially unsafe hospitals. Click here to read more.  

For A Change In Vermont, A Wet Week Is Coming, And That Will Be Glorious. (Drought To Linger, Though)

A blue sky view from South Burlington, Vermont Friday
looking toward New York's Adirondacks. Many of
the leaves you see in this photo will be off the
trees by Tuesday after an expected bout of
wind and very welcome rain. 

Fingers crossed, it still looks like Vermont is in for a wet week. 

It won't end the drought, and overall, the weather pattern won't exactly turn soggy, But at least the drought won't keep getting worse, at least for a little while. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is expecting more than an inch of rain between Sunday night and the end of the week. 

We have two storms to get through. The stronger of the two wet weather systems is coming at the beginning of the week. Then, a slower, weaker, colder system comes in toward the end of the week. 

NICE WEEKEND

Before we get there, we have a nice weekend to deal with. We won't have the bright sunshine we had yesterday. But it will be warmer, despite periods of clouds we'll see today. Highs should top 60 degrees in many towns, which is just slightly warmer than average for this time of year.

 Tomorrow, you'll feel the impending storm coming. South winds will increase, so will the clouds.  And the temperatures.  In the Champlain Valley, you'll see gusts go to 30 mph or a little more as temperatures soar to near or a little above 70 degrees. 

Current forecast for rainfall between Sunday night and
Tuesday morning. Some areas could get more than
an inch of rain. Some more rain might also hit
later in the week. This forecast is 
subject to change. 

We'll probably only get that warm a handful of times this year, and it's possible we won't see 70 again until next spring. So enjoy tomorrow!

The rain will come in by dawn Monday, and it looks like it will continue all day, or at least most of it.

As of this morning, the expected rainfall ranges from a half inch or so in the Northeast Kingdom, to three quarters of a inch in central Vermont and maybe an inch or a little more in the south.  

The wind and the rain will introduce most of us to stick season, if it hasn't already arrived where you are. 

Lingering leaves on the trees will get blown and washed off by the storm.  By Monday night, the only lingering fall color we'll see will be in parts of the Champlain Valley and warmer, deeper valleys near and south of Route 4. 

MORE RAIN? AND SNOW?

We'll get a break Tuesday, with only the risk of scattered showers. For a change, we won't have a blast of dry air to evaporate whatever moisture we receive, so that's good. 

Then, it looks like  a slow moving, upper level storm will come in from the west. This one won't exactly drown us, but it will provide us with damp, dreary, showery weather.  Early guesses are the second half of the week will bring us another quarter to half inch of rain. 

Colder too. It's looking more and more like Vermont has its first real shot at snow. Not everywhere. But if the forecast holds, you'll see white-topped mountains for the first time this year.  

 

ICE Barbie Has GOP Angry Over Her Micromanaging, Which Screws Disaster Victims

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem,
AKA Ice Barbie, is one of the people demonstrators
will object to during tomorrow's No Kings marches.
One of the things she's doing is slow walking
FEMA disaster aid, leaving storm victims
wondering if they'll ever get help. 

It looks like millions of people will take to the streets across the nation Saturday in "No Kings" protest against the Trump administration's authoritarian tendencies. 

Much of the public's ire is with Department of Homeland Security Kristie Noem, or, as she's often called,  ICE Barbie. 

Many of the protestors  are fed up with the bullying, violent and legally dubious, to put it mildly, tactics of ICE agents who ultimately report to Noem. 

Meanwhile, frustration is also growing with ICE Barbie over disaster responses. 

ICE isn't the only thing that's got people hot and bothered, though it's likely the biggest problem people have with Noem. 

As climate change makes storms and other weather events worse and more extreme, more and more people will need disaster aid to cope with these calamities. 

However, Ice Barbie, whose agency oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency,  is gumming up the works.  

According to Notus.org:

"Most of the frustration centers around a rule Noem implemented that she must review and approve any expense over $100,000 at the Department of Homeland Security. at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, housed in DHS, this directive has significantly slowed the agency's normally routine processor distributing much needed funds to states trying to rebuild in the aftermath of natural disasters. 

Noem's micromanaging became widely noticed during and after the horrific, deadly Fourth of July floods in the Texas Hill Country.

The $100,000 rule and ICE Barbie's slow response to everything meant FEMA could not pre-position Urban Search and Rescue teams in a timely manner.  Noem reportedly didn't authorize FEMA's deployment of the urban search and rescue teams until more than 72 hours after the flooding started.  

Apparently, this problem continues to fester, if not get worse. Says Notus.org:

Concerns among lawmakers continue to grow, but publicly and privately. Some members have taken their complaints to administration officials, multiple sources told NOTUS."

Those complaining include Republican lawmakers, who are walking a self-imposed high wire. On the one hand, they can't get Trump or any of his minions annoyed because, I don't know, they'll get sent to a gulag in Uganda or something. On the other hand, these GOP Congress creatures must make sure their constituents are getting the attention they probably voted for. 

That's certainly true in North Carolina, which is still trying to get its feet under themselves after the devastating blow from Hurricane Helene last year. 

Sen. Ted Budd (R-NC) has put a hold on Department of Homeland Security nominees because FEMA is slow -walking billions of dollars worth of Helene aid to his state.  Budd said he doesn't have a problem with the DHS nominees and would vote for them, but first he wants to see promised aid get to the states Helene victims. 

Predictably, a DHS spokesperson got all snarky in a statement regarding Ice Barbie's $100,000 rule.  "Who are those members complaining? Democrats who shut down the government?," the spokesperson said in a statement. 

The spokeperson's statement claims Ice Barbie's policies have so far saved $13.2 billion because she reviews every DHS contract worth more than $100,000. "Despite constant criticism of this policy from the media and D.C. bureaucrats, results like these speak for themselves."

Or not. We don't know if the money "saved" is just because Ice Barbie hasn't gotten around to reviewing contracts that have been sitting around forever. I would like to see a spreadsheet of the contracts she rejected or modified to save money. 

FEMA has always been slow with relief money, especially once the immediate aftermath of the disaster has passed. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, including liberal Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt have pushed for reform. 

But even getting Noem's attention is quite an effort. She's always cosplaying ICE goons, or getting in front of TV cameras to snarl at immigrants. 

'"The view among Republicans on the Hill is Secretary Noem is less interested in doing the blocking and tackling of her day job that she is with promoting herself in taxpayer funded TV-commercials,"' one GOP aide told NOTUS.

There's much more in this link to the NOTUS article.  

Chilly, Dry, Windy In Vermont To Yield To Warmer, Dry, Windy, But Rain Chances Sunday Night??

Ice in the bird feeder here in St. Albans, Vermont
today. Time to take that in with everything else,
as we are in the hunker down for winter season.

Thursday was a delightful, if cool and gusty day in western and southern Vermont, while the Northeast Kingdom stayed socked in with the clouds. 

My husband and I spent much of our bright, gusty day Thursday dismantling our summer setup and starting to hunker down for winter.  

Frost sensitive plants are safely indoors, hoses are emptied of water, rolled up and stored away, some of the perennials are cut back, (I'm working on that), and deck furniture is put away.

It's a little sad to say this final goodbye to the warm season. But, the cycle goes on, and we'll be enjoying cocktails and mocktails on warm sunny summer evenings in the comfortable deck furniture, surrounded by flowers in no time, right?

The gusty winds felt like they were adding urgency to the fall tasks, which aren't nearly fully completed yet. There's so much work to do to prepare for winter, isn't there? .We'll get there. 

The weather will cooperate with this work, for now. Today will be another great day to do more of those tasks. The sunshine will be back, the wind by and large will not be. 

We're starting off cold again this morning, with most everyone west of the Green Mountains below freezing. Clouds east of the Greens kept some normally cold spots above 32 degrees. 

The sunshine will spread into the Northeast Kingdom today as well, so everybody will get to enjoy it. We'll stay sort of on the cool side, with highs in the 50s today. Another frost will come in tonight. Nothing odd for mid-October. 

Saturday still looks like the pick of the week. The sun will stay out, temperatures will warm to near 60 degrees and a south breeze will start to pick up in the afternoon. 

The wind will be back Sunday, especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds there could gust to 40 mph as temperature rebound to 70 degrees or so. 

Despite the expected warmth on Sunday, those gusty south winds are another sign of winter's approach, Storm and cold fronts become stronger in the late fall and winter, so they're able to stir up more wind. From now until spring, you'll notice strong south winds, mostly in the Champlain Valley, anytime a cold front or storm lies to our west. 

RAIN CHANCES

Sure enough, Sunday's winds are signs of a solid cold front approaching, and that will come through Sunday night and Monday. 

This will introduce a fairly brief, but welcome spell of unsettled, cloudy, and occasionally rainy weather much of next week.  

The first band of rain should be in and out of here Monday, with lingering showers going into Tuesday. Hot on the heels of the cold front will be a modest storm that should spread more rain across the Green Mountain State Wednesday and Thursday. 

This won't be by any stretch of the imagination be a drought buster, but any precipitation will be welcome. 

I don't have a good bead on how much rain we'll get but it should be a moderate amount.  The drought won't go away, but we're hoping the rain will prevent the drought from getting worse. If we get lucky, the rain might very marginally improve things. 

Remember how I said we're hunkering down for winter?  Well, there's uncertain signs that we could get chilly enough to see some snow flurries in Vermont about a week from now, maybe next Friday. If it does snow, it won't amount to anything. 

But it is a reminder to get moving on your autumn chores. 

New U.S. Drought Monitor Report Shows No Real Improvement In Vermont/New England.

This weeks's U.S. Drought Monitor shows little 
improvement over last week, despite some
rain. Red area is extreme drought, orange
is severe, lighter orange is moderate drought. 

 The latest weekly U.S Drought Monitor, out this morning, shows no improvement in our deep Vermont drought conditions, despite some decent rainfall last week. 

About two thirds of the Green Mountain State is in extreme drought, about the same level has the week before. 

Droughts are categorized in rank of increasing severity as moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional. 

By the time you get up to extreme drought, you see crop losses, struggling dairy farms, extremely low water in rivers and steams and exceptionally busy well drillers and bulk water haulers. All of that is definitely happening in Vermont.  

All but tiny slivers in the rest of Vermont is in extreme drought. Only minuscule areas in extreme southern Vermont, northern Grand Isle County and a small section of southwest Rutland County are in moderate drought. 

The section of Rutland County that's now in moderate instead of severe drought is the only slight improvement over last week I could find. The area of extreme drought in Rutland County also shrank a little.

That improvement was offset by extreme drought spreading more into eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties and western Lamoille County. 

These are all fussy little changes. Essentially, things are unchanged for the report that came out a week ago. 

In the rest of the Northeast, heavy rains improved things somewhat in southern New England, but drought worsened in eastern Maine and New York's St. Lawrence Valley.

OUTLOOK

This was a flash drought in Vermont, one that develops within weeks instead of months that regular droughts do. However, you almost never see a flash end to a drought. 

Even if we get a lot of soaking rains, and big blitzes of winter snows, I don't think the drought will disappear anytime soon. I'm betting it could easily last into the spring. It might improve over the coming months if we get a lot of precipitation, but it will be a long slog. 

Plus, there's no promise of much soaking rains. We do have several chances of rain over the next week or two, but I'm unimpressed by the amount of precipitation we'll get from these weather systems. 

In the short term, today is a high risk fire day in the Green Mountain State. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates today's wildfire risk as very high, except for the southern Green Mountains, where the risk is "merely" high, with no adjectives. 

True, we had a little rain earlier this week, but not much. It was enough to briefly wet down fallen leaves and dead grasses and weeds, but not enough to soak the fallen branches and trees, and underground roots in our forests. 

The wind has dried out the leaves and weeds. Winds are forecast to gust to 30 mph or more for the rest of today. That means any fires that start will spread fast.

The breezes will be lighter tomorrow and Saturday, so the risk of rapidly spreading fires will be lower. But new fires could easily start, as it will be quite dry those days. 

Rain is still in the forecast Sunday night and Monday, but we don't  yet know how much we'll get. Unlike the few rain storms we've had this fall, mainly cloudy, somewhat damp and showery weather could continue into the middle of next week, which would be great.   

We seem to be switching out of a weather pattern in which big, dry high pressure systems stalled over us and kept rainmakers away. But the new weather pattern looks only somewhat wetter, with relatively weak, fast moving little storms throwing some shots of generally light rain at us. 

The worsening trend in the drought might slow or even stop in the coming weeks, but unless we see some pleasant surprises, don't count on a lot of improvement anytime soon. 

Completely Backwards: Vermont Lilacs Blooming In October!

Lilacs bloom on the tree outside my house in 
St. Albans, Vermont this week. Stress from a
wet spring, a blight and drought have caused
this out of season display. 

You might have seen the following in your travels lately and said, what the hell?!?!?

Lilacs are blooming in Vermont. In October. 

Lilacs are of course a highly welcomed sight in May. What's not to love about them? When they bloom, they signal that you're in the heart of spring.

 They smell absolutely divine. And they're gorgeous. And traditional. I don't think I've ever seen an old farm house in Vermont without a lilac bush that's almost as old as the house. 

These lilac bushes usually cede beauty to the sugar maples in the autumn. While our hillsides glow orange and red and yellow, lilac bushes normally just drop their green leaves late in the autumn, and you're done until spring. Ho-hum.

This year, our lilac bushes were stressed by topsy turvy weather much more so than usual. Yes, we can blame climate change for another round of weather extremes in 2025.  

This year, we had an unusually wet, sopping spring. That encouraged a leaf blight to take hold in lilac leaves. That's a huge part of the reason why you saw so many lilac bushes with curled up, browning leaves that fell off prematurely. The blight - as you can imagine - stressed the lilac bushes. 

Then, the rain shut off in July, and we sank into our big flash drought. That stressed the lilac trees even more. 

"Stressful conditions put the plant in a dormant-like state and when the cooler temperatures and shorter days of fall arrive, some of the flower buds are triggered to bloom," Iowa State University Extension explains. 

We also finally got some rain in late September, which also might have helped trigger the odd new blooms.  

The good news is the blight, the drought and the weird October blooming won't kill or really harm your lilac bushes. These are really, really tough plants. Ever try to kill a lilac? It's almost impossible. Besides, why would anyone want to kill a lilac?

Next May, your suffering lilac will bloom beautifully, and on schedule. It might have fewer blooms than usual, because the tree put on some of its blooming effort this month. 

The strange doings with lilacs are a sign that weather extremes brought on by climate change are having an effect on everything.  In the springs of 2021 and 2023, for the first time in my life, I noticed freeze damage to lilac blooms.

In both those years, oddly warm early spring weather got trees leafing out and blooming way too early. Then snow and frost and deep freezes hit, turning some of those gorgeous lavender lilac blooms a disappointing brown. Or they didn't bloom at all in some cases.

Hopefully, normal amounts of precipitation will return soon. The drought here in Vermont and the rest of northern New England is still in full force. The latest weekly U.S. Drought reports comes out later this morning. I'll put up a post about that update here in this blog thingy later today. 

Maybe we'll get lucky and the weather during the spring and summer of 2026 will be pretty moderate to give all our garden plants a break. 

But give the climate change that everyone is experiencing, I'm sure something bizarro will happen next growing season, too.  

DOGE Cuts Turned Devastating, Deadly Alaska Storm Into A Surprise, Leaving Some Unprepared

Destruction in western Alaska due to the severe
storm that hit over the weekend. Forecasting for
the storm appears to be substandard because
of cutbacks in funding and staffing for the 
National Weather Service

The horrible storm that caused at least one death and intense destruction in parts of western Alaska was forecasted inaccurately, due to DOGE cuts orchestrated by Elon Musk and the Trump administration, according to a CNN report. 

The bulk of the storm struck an area south of where computer models suggested it would. The models were apparently off because of a lack of good data. 

So-called Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE cutbacks meant some weather balloon launches were scrubbed for lack of funding. 

Per CNN:

"Weather balloon, which are typically launched twice a day, provide crucial information on wind speed and direction, air temperature, humidity, and other measurements. Balloon data is fed directly into sophisticated models used to predict the weather. 

However, there were few, if any, balloons to take measurements of what the weather was doing as the remains of Typhoon Halong approached Alaska late last week." 

Likely because of the lack of the balloon data, computer models had the storm striking the area around the Bering Strait, the point where Alaska and Russia are the closest to each other. 

Instead, the storm hit struck coastal southwest Alaska, sending deadly storm surges into communities like Kwigillingok and Kipnuk and other remote towns.  Houses floated away, some with people inside. Rescuers were able to retrieve at least two dozen people. However, one person is confirmed dead and two are missing. 

National Weather Service forecasts in Alaska did issue many warnings for the area that was hit hardest boy the storm, but they did so without the help of accurate model projects made days in advance.

That might have meant that warnings that should have gone out sooner didn't. 

The Alaska Beacon compared this storm with another ex-typhoon named Merbok in 2022.

"Unlike Merkok, which was very well forecast by the global models, this one's final track and intensity weren't clear until the storm was within 36 hours of crossing into Alaska's waters. That's too late for evacuations in many places."

The area hit by the storm is remote, so it's not easy to deal with an extreme storm. It's not like the Lower 48, where people can evacuate to a nearby school, municipal building or hotel when severe weather looms.  In Alaska, you need more time to prepare. 

The Alaska Beacon also tells us:  "There have not been any upper air weather balloon observations at Saint Paul Island in the Bering Sea since late August or at Kotzebue since February. Bethel and Cold Bay are limited to one per day instead of two. At Nome, there were no weather balloons for two full days as the storm."

Meteorologists are still trying to assess to what extent the lack of balloon launches had on forecast accuracy. 

 CNN continues:

"'Not having balloons didn't help,' the forecast, said a NOAA official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, although forecasts for Alaska also really on data from Asia as storms move from that region into North America." 

All the major computer models had errors in the projected path of the storm, though it's hard to tease out  how much of that error was due to the lack of balloon launches and their data, and how much might have been from other factors.  

The aftermath of the storm is more difficult in remote areas like the west coast of Africa. There's no Home Depot right around the corner to buy replacement roofing, windows and flooring. For those whose houses were destroyed, there's nowhere to go. 

Hundreds of people have been displaced. The Alaska Beacon says residents are face with an impossible decision: They could go to come place like Anchorage for the winter and return next summer to rebuild. But cities are expensive. 

However, there's no housing in the remote coastline of Alaska to move into. All disasters are incredibly difficult for the victims. In Alaska, it's even more so. 

 

One Of Vermont's Sunniest Autumns Ever Finally Gives Way To Clouds

The setting sun briefly lit up these trees in St.
Albans, Vermont late Tuesday afternoon, but you
can still see the thick gray clouds in the background.
It has finally gotten cloudier in Vermont in recent
days, but unfortunately not much wetter. 

Vermont has a cloudy reputation. 

No matter the time of year, chances are, if you make outdoor plans, you'll end up under at least partly cloudy skies if not an overcast.

But in the late summer and autumn drought, it was one sunny day after another. It was like Home On The Range, where the skies are not cloudy all day. It felt like California weather moved to Vermont. 

By my rough, unofficial count, 19 days in both August and September were mostly sunny to clear. Ten of the first 12 days of October in northern Vermont were also clear to at least mostly sunny.

Cloudy Vermont usually starts to get even more overcast around the autumn solstice. Late autumn through early winter is usually the cloudiest part of the year in the Green Mountain State. 

Sometimes in late October, November and December, you can go a week or even more without seeing the sun. This week, a little belatedly, those clouds have finally arrived.  It's not that we won't see the sun ever again. It's just that it won't be as frequent. 

Too bad that so far, those clouds aren't accompanied by much desperately needed rain. 

We did have a solid overcast Monday and Tuesday. For most of us, yesterday was as gloomy as it can get.  We had low clouds, fog, a little drizzle. Northwest Vermont had a glimpse of sun right before sunset, but that was about it. 

That drizzle didn't amount to much. Between Monday and Tuesday, Burlington only had 0.05 inches of rain.   My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans did better, sort of, collecting 0.22 inches over the two days. Montpelier managed to receive 0,26 in those two days.

That's not exactly a drought buster. We need a drenching! We're still in search of it.

LOOKING AHEAD

Clouds will hang tough today and tomorrow, but they won't yield any rain aside from an isolated sprinkle over the hills. 

A cold front blew through early this morning, sweeping away any lingering fog and drizzle. Today and tomorrow will feature mostly cloudy skies for most of us, chilly temperatures and a stiff north wind that will make it feel even colder. 

High temperatures will barely make it into the low 50s today and tomorrow. Tonight will go into the low and mid 30s. Thursday night will drop us into the mid 20s to low 30s. 

The summer that lasted into October is definitely over. 

We'll see some breaks of sun both today and tomorrow, especially in the broader valleys and in southeastern Vermont. Tomorrow will be the sunnier of the two days. 

The sun should be back in full force Friday, Saturday and part of Sunday amid a warming trend. Saturday will be the pick of the week with lots of sunshine and temperatures near or a little above 60. Sunday will be even warmer, as some places could touch 70. But by afternoon, it looks like the clouds will be coming back. 

Another storm system should come through Sunday night and Monday. We're still getting hints we could see a decent, though not huge amount of rain then. 

I might not believe it until I see it. We've been burned many times before over the past few months, where we thought we had a good shot at seeing a soaking, and nothing happened. 

On the other hand, solid doses of rainfall on September 25 and October 7 briefly stalled the drought's worsening trend. If Sunday night and Monday are the start of a wetter trend, that would be terrific.

What I'm seeing, though are signs of a cloudier, but not necessarily super wet weather pattern heading through the end of the month. A handful of models bring a former hurricane near New England toward the end to October, but that type of specific long range forecast is seldom accurate. 

My advice? Keep doing those rain dances.