Clickbaiting A Disaster: How Social Media "Influencers" Spread Weather Panic For Profit. .

Various forecasts for the track of Hurricane Melissa,
issued last Friday evening. Most of the predicted
paths accurately predicted the hurricane would
miss the U.S. East Coast by a wide margin. One
of the forecasts had it swerving toward New York
and some online hyped that. The black line is
the average of all the forecasts, and it was
quite close to the actual track of Melissa. 

Hurricane Melissa was bad enough, right?  

At least 50 people have died in the hurricane The destruction is immense in Jamaica. Haiti is a flooded, disastrous mess. Parts of the Bahamas are trashed, too. 

It was all super frightening. And fascinating in a horrifying way. 

As terrible as Hurricane Melissa was, people found ways to make everybody's distress over the tragedy worse.  

The means? Alarming people for online revenue.  . 

CLICKBAITING A DISASTER

A classic example came as Melissa was building up its strength last weekend. 

We knew then things would get bad, really bad in the Caribbean. The natural question was, would we in the United States suffer the wrath of Melissa?

By last Saturday, meteorologists were unanimously saying no, the United States was safe. 

But that didn't stop the folks on social media. One example came in a  Facebook post from Southern Maryland Weather Center  which called attention to this stupid scheme. 

Unlike Southern Maryland Weather Center and reputable meteorologists, social media scum scumbags This outfit tried to drum up fear on the East Coast, by suggesting Melissa would probably slam into the U.S. East Coast, probably near New Jersey.

This Facebook post said the person or persons they saw who showed the path toward New Jersey tried to clarify that the New Jersey scenario was unlikely, but who reads the fine print nowadays? 

Here's the deal: 

Each computer model has dozens of runs showing the projected track of storms. On Saturday, almost all those predicted tracks took Melissa over the Atlantic Ocean, very far from the East Coast. One of the tracks, on one of the models took Melissa to a landfall near New York City.  When you see a model track like that different from the others, it's known as an outlier. Probably bad data. Don't pay attention.

Most meteorologists and weather geeks ignored that outlier and accurately told the public that Hurricane Melissa would miss the East Coast by a wide margin. They figured it was better to be accurate than a lying carnival barker. 

Social media thrives on instilling fear, anger, strong emotions. You're going to get a stronger reaction if you tell New Yorkers a hurricane is going to destroy their homes. So more clicks, more revenue. 

This phenomenon isn't unique to Hurricane Melissa. Clickbaiters always pull looming weather catastrophes out of their hats whenever there's the slightest hint of a strange storm or temperature extreme. 

The average doomscroller on social media is not a weather geek. It's often hard for people not steeped in meteorology to figure out which source is reliable and which isn't.  

Go with the tried and true. The National Weather Service, or in the case of hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center.  

For local weather, the TV meteorologists in your area tend to be quite reliable. And use your judgement. If the weather source you're using always seems to tell you extreme weather is coming, beware. 

Blogs like this will report on severe weather when it's happening. Or before it happens. But if the forecast looks like a yawner, we'll tell you that, too.

Speaking of false Melissa information, I have another post coming on the flood of fake AI images about Hurricane Melissa and the harm that does. 

 . 

Was A Stormy Vermont Night, And It Won't Be A Nice Day (But We Needed The Rain)

Just a few leaves clinging to the trees in St. Albans,
Vermont yesterday. This was before bigger wind
gusts and heavier rain. By tomorrow, most of 
these remaining leaves will be on the ground. 

Well,  you can tell we're heading into winter because we had a classic cold season stormy night in Vermont. 

Since it's not quite winter, it didn't snow, at least not yet (hint, hint) but wind and rain made for a noticeable, even sleepless night for some of us. 

Today and tonight will remain on the wet and windy side, too. This time of year in the Green Mountain State is not exactly known for its glorious weather. 

November, a month known in Vermont for wind, overcast and dampness starts tomorrow. We're just getting a slightly early start. 

Vermont power outages flared up between 8 p.m. and 3 a.m., mostly over the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Those outages peaked at a little over 7,700 at around midnight. 

These western slope windstorms tend to contain brief, intense gusts between periods of relatively calm air. They also sometimes tend to be rather localized. One section of town get blasted, while other nearby neighborhoods are OK. 

I noticed some occasional strong easterly gusts at around 9:30 or 10 last night here in St Albans.  People on Facebook reported tree damage and power outages. A cluster of three large pines in Pittsford reportedly broke off about 25 feet above the ground. One person said they had a 90 mph gust in South Lincoln, but I'm a little suspicious of that report. 

Somebody in Killington said their home weather station registered a 72 mph gust. Not far away in Chittenden another home wind gauge clicked at 68 mph. Power outages and tree damage was also reported in northern Vermont, especially around Hyde Park and Craftsbury. 

These are all unofficial reports from Facebook, but it does indicate last night was windier than predicted in spots. Doppler radar did detect gusts over 60 mph in some pockets near the western slopes of the Greens last night at around 9 p.m. just before the peak wind reports came in. 

As of this morning, winds have died down but they'll get gusty again later. More on that in a bit. 

I also don't have complete rainfall totals yet. Southern Vermont seems to have gotten some nice, beneficial rains. Through 7 a.m. Springfield reported 1.37 inches and Bennington 2.12.

Many northern areas of Vermont, like Burlington,  has only received around a half inch of rain through 7 a.m. But the burst of heavier rain this morning hadn't finished up yet in the north. By Saturday morning, storm totals should be around three quarters of an inch, give or take, in northeast Vermont and around an inch in the Champlain Valley. 

We should see another little dent in the drought because of this storm, but it certainly won't erase the entire problem. 

The storm was even worse elsewhere in the Northeast. Torrential rains caused big time flash flooding in and around New York City. Two men were found dead in separate flooded basements.   

REST OF THE STORM 

Dusting off the old National Weather Service snow
prediction map for another season. It shows light
accumulations by tomorrow in the Adirondacks, and
along the spine of the Green Mountains. 

Bursts of rain were still moving through Vermont as dawn broke today.  There were even some lightning strikes near Burlington shortly after 7 a.m. today. 

The rain should taper off later this morning, and much of the afternoon should feature just cloudy skies, with some light showers mostly in the north.  

Precipitation should blossom again this afternoon and continue much of the night, especially in the mountains and in the northwestern third of Vermont. 

Not much additional rain will hit the south, but some light rain and sprinkles should pop up even in the drier southeastern valleys.   

Ghost and goblins roaming the streets this evening should get pretty damp. Witches on brooms might get blown off course by the wind. Dracula will have no trouble with sunshine. 

This won't be entirely rain, either. 

As colder air moves rain will change to snow at the summits this afternoon. Overnight and early Saturday, snowflakes will get to as low as maybe 1,200 to 1,500 feet in elevations. Places at and above 2,000 feet could get a slushy coating of snow, with several inches at the summits by Saturday morning. 

The wind will get cranking later this afternoon, and overnight, and into Saturday as well. This time, the gusts will come from west and northwest. Since winds tend to accelerate as they go downhill, this time it will be the eastern, not western slopes of the Greens that get the most wind.

Peak wind gusts won't be as high as last night, but they will be more widespread. Top wind gusts for most of us will be in the 30 to 40 mph range, with higher gusts in the mountains and eastern slopes, and maybe the broad waters of Lake Champlain. 

It'll be blustery and cold Saturday, but most of the rain and high elevation snow showers should be in the mountains, and along the western slopes of the Greens. You'll see some sunshine in the valleys of southeast Vermont, but the north will be mostly cloudy 

Once again a classic November day. 

This is turning out to be a pretty big storm. Not a record breaker and nothing unprecedented. But definitely a notable one. 

There will be occasional rain and or snow chances once every few days now into the middle of November, but for now, I don't see any storms as big as the one we're gettin now. 

 

More North Carolina Homes Fall Into Ocean Amid Moderate Nor'easter

A rainbow appears above the wreckage of more houses
that collapsed into the surf in Buxton, North Carolina
this week. Photo via Facebook, Island Free Press.

 If you've been keeping track like I have, more homes fell into the ocean on North Carolina's Outer Banks Tuesday. 

One of the collapses was a large green home that has been teetering precariously since waves from hurricanes Humberto and Imelda battered it between September 30 and October 3. Nine homes fell into the surf on those dates. 

Another home was ready to fall because a neighboring one that collapsed on October 18 struck its pilings, making it vulnerable to new waves. 

During a moderate-sized nor'easter on Tuesday, four of the homes fell within less than two and a half hours of one another. The other collapsed late in the afternoon. Winds were gusting to 50 mph and tides were higher than normal. 

A total of 27 homes have collapses since 2020. Fifteen of those collapses have happened in the past month. One in Rodanthe, North Carolina and the others in Buxton. 

Brett Barley, a professional surfer from Buxton wrote on Facebook: 

"The Oceanfront of Buxton is becoming unrecognizable.....As I stood at the end of Cottage Ave. this evening with @danielpullen, neither one of us could wrap our heads around what we were looking at, or had just witnessed this afternoon.

Both of us have grown up our whole lives running every dune of this area, chasing waves & beach days, and Daniel actually spending years living on Cottage Ave, its hard to witness the end of these roads just laid bare, Not just the front line of houses, but now homes that were 2 back and 3 back from the ocean are gone or at water's edge. Not just rental houses at stake, but now main dwellings of locals, or houses of family friends.....it's heartbreaking to see, and a lot to take in & process." 

Hurricane Melissa was passing far offshore of North Carolina today. That storm will probably send more swells into North Carolina's Outer Banks. The swells, in turn will threaten more vulnerable homes. 

Locals are monitoring three homes that look like they will collapse at any moment. 

To review what's happening. Barrier islands always shift, and that's what's happening in the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, changes there are on turbocharge lately because climate change is making sea levels rise and intensifying stories, 

Video:

Clips of some of the homes in Buxton, North Carolina falling into the sea Tuesday. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that. 

Long, Hard Recovery Begins In Jamaica As Hurricane Melissa Speeds Away To North Atlantic

Photo of extreme winds from Hurricane Melissa in
Jamaica. The photographer, Josh Morgerman said
this was actually before the peak of the winds. 

The wrath of Hurricane Melissa will soon end as the storm races northeastward away from the Bahamas, but the storm and its aftermath has changed lives forever. 

As of this morning, the death toll from Hurricane Melissa rose past 30 as of this morning, but we still do not have a full accounting of the toll in Jamaica, the hardest hit island in the Caribbean. 

Communications there are still spotty, and many roads are blocked. Which means reaching the hardest hit areas is difficult to say the least. 

Most of the reported deaths so far are in Haiti. Per USA Today:

"Though Melissa did not directly hit Haiti, the Caribbeans' most populous nation, the storm battered the island with days of rain. On Wednesday, authorities reported at least 25 deaths, largely due to floods in Petit-Goave, a coastal town about 40 miles west of the capital, where a river burst its banks."

Several people are still missing in Haiti, and thousands of homes are damaged and destroyed.

That's still nothing compared to scope of the destruction in parts of Jamaica. The search and recovery of victims in Jamaica really hasn't started in earnest yet. 

Weather and climate journalist Jonathan Petramala, in a YouTube video posted this morning, said he and many others had been trying for more than 12 hours to reach the hardest hit coastline of Jamaica. The roads to the southwest coast are an impenetrable mass of mud, twisted trees, water and debris. 

That's bad news, because survivors on the southwest coast are most in need of help.  In the Jamaican town Petramala was reporting from, survivors said they had no drinking water and no food amid the now roofless houses and debris-clogged landscape. Dead goats, drowned in the storm, littered the neighborhood

The storm itself had to be terrifying. Josh Morgerman, a hurricane expert who has now experienced the eyes 83 hurricanes, described Melissa as easily among the scariest he's experienced. On Facebook, he wrote about the scene just before the hurricane reached peak intensity.

"Bone-rattling gusts were making roofs explode into clouds of lethal confetti. The grand palm tree out front was starting to bend obscenely - in a way I found unnatural."

Then the peak of the storm hit. Morgerman described it this way:

"The hurricane's inner eyewall was a screaming white void. All I could see through the cracks in the shutters was the color white - accompanied by a constant, ear-splitting scream that actually caused pain. ....The scream occasionally got higher and angrier and those extra-screechy screams made my eardrums pulse. Meanwhile, water was forcing in through every crack - under the floor and between the window slats."

Drone video taken after skies cleared made it look like a 30 mile wide EF-4 tornado had smashed through western Jamaica. 

Jamaicans are doing what they can to start recovering from then catastrophe. The capital, Kingston, was not all that badly damaged by Melissa, so the seat of government is able to coordinate relief and logistics. 

Video from Jamaica showed people already starting to work on replacing roofs on homes. Bulldozers were pushing mud off roads. People with chainsaws and machetes were hacking their way through walls of fallen trees that were blocking roads. 

At least eight Jamaican hospitals had power restored as of today. Kingston's airport reopened today, allowing planes loaded with aid to land.   Ten commercial flights are also scheduled, so tourists can leave the island.

The airport in hard-hit Montego Bay also opened to relief flights today, but commercial flights are still a no-go, so tourists are still stranded there. 

All this is a start, but it might take years for Jamaica to fully recover. And I'm not even really including the damage Melissa caused in Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas. 

MELISSA'S ENDGAME

Hurricane Melissa is persistent as hell. 

Top winds had dropped to 90 mph as it was interacting with islands in the Bahamas. But despite strong upper level winds that tend to rip hurricanes apart, Melissa managed to strengthen its winds to 105 mph by late this morning. 

Melissa might even get a little stronger in the next few hours. But colder ocean water temperatures and howling upper level winds will make the storm lose its tropical characteristics as it passes by Bermuda tonight. 

It'll still be a hurricane force storm when it clips the southeast corner of Newfoundland Friday night or Saturday as it races northeastward over the Atlantic.

VIDEO

YouTube video, much of it taken from drone, of the devastation in Haiti from Hurricane Melissa. Click on this link to view. Or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

New England/Vermont Drought Holds Firm, Only Slight Improvement After Last Week's Rains

Only slight improvement shown in this week's
 Drought Monitor for Vermont. The 
Green Mountains went from extreme 
drought down to a slightly less dire
severe drought. Everything else
in Vermont was unchanged from
last week's report. 

 The closely watched weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out on scheduled this morning, and it shows only modest improvement here in Vermont, despite some decent rains last week. 

It demonstrates how hard it is to emerge from a drought. It was a flash drought, one that developed over just a few weeks. Unfortunately, once you're in a drought, it's hard to get out of it. 

The area of Vermont under extreme drought diminished a little since last week. The area of extreme drought was removed from the Green Mountain range  Extreme drought continues in western Addison County and east of the Green Mountains and roughly north of Route 4. 

This makes sense, since last week's storm dumped its heaviest rain along the spine of the Green Mountains. 

About 47 percent of Vermont was in extreme drought this week, compared to 59 percent last week. So, not much improvement. 

Areas that were in severe drought in Vermont are unchanged from last week. Far northwestern Vermont, a small corner of southwest Vermont and a thin sliver along the Massachusetts border were in less intense moderate drought, exactly the same as last week.

In the rest of New England and Northeast, areas of extreme drought diminished a little in New Hampshire and some of the mountains of western Maine. However, drought intensified in southern and eastern Maine. 

Drought conditions in New York were basically  unchanged, improving a little near Lake Erie but worsening a bit in some of the central parts of the state. 

It's raining again in the Northeast, so maybe there will be another slight improvement next week. 

VERMONT RAIN  OUTLOOK

A little more drought relief coming today through
early Saturday with 0.5 to a little over an inch of
rain in the forecast for Vermont. 

We are going to get a decent rainfall in Vermont today through early Saturday, though in some parts of the state, predicted rainfall amounts are cut back a little. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will go to the west and east of Vermont. Parts of central and northwest New York, and eastern New England should get 1.5 inches of rain or a little more than that by Saturday morning. 

Vermont should do OK, with maybe a half inch in low elevations of southwest Vermont, about three quarters of an inch across the southeast, central and northern parts of the state. 

Northwest Vermont, often the winner lately with rainstorms, will probably do it again, with an expected rainfall of a little over an inch by Saturday. 

Here are the picky details of the forecast: 

he initial burst of rain this morning is moving directly north over New York. It's having a tough time moving east into Vermont.

It will gradually get wetter, west to east across the Green Mountain State today. The rain might kind of sputter out for a time late this afternoon and early evening. But then a good wave of steady rain should come in tonight.

For much of the state, it will be kind of a stormy night.  On top of the rain, a stiff east wind will blow across much of the area. That will be especially true along the western slopes of the Green Mountain, where winds could gust to 45 mph or so.

A few favored spots along the western slopes could maybe gust to 55 mph, but that won't be widespread. If the rain is on the heavy side, the wind will be a little lighter. Periods when the rain is much lighter along the western slopes might bring some stronger gusts. 

Not a horrific storm, but tonight's weather will show that we're now into the season where we can get those blustery late autumn storms 

The rain should continue into Friday, but it will turn showery by afternoon. The rain will mostly end in southeast Vermont. 

Friday will be another blustery day, especially in the afternoon, with the wind coming from the northwest instead of the east.  The rain might stop completely for awhile Friday morning as a tongue of dry air tries to  come in. But showers will fill back in, especially north and along the western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains. 

For trick or treaters, this Halloween will be a polar opposite of last year. Halloween, 2024 brought record-shattering high temperatures, and those ghosts and monsters and goblins on the streets basically enjoyed a typical summer evening. 

Not this year. A gusty northwest wind will add to the chill amid temperatures in the 40s to around 50 at best Friday evening. The showers will be relatively light, but persistent, especially central and north. 

As the night goes on, snow that will have started at the summits Friday afternoon will go downhill in elevation, reaching as low as 1,500 feet by Saturday morning. There could be light accumulations above 2,000 feet, and maybe several inches at the summits.

Saturday will be a blustery, cold, cloudy November day, which is a hallmark of the month. There could be some valley light rain showers and mountain snow showers, but amounts will be light. 

Sunday will be calmer.

As we look ahead in hopes of more drought relief, I don't see much. It looks like the pattern heading into mid-November will feature frequent chances of light rain or mountain snow. I don't see any signs of more drenching super-soakers for now. 

 

Melissa Blasting Cuba, Jamaica Wakes Up To Devastation, And Some Science Behind The Storm

Image from the Weather Channel showing extreme
flooding in Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa.

Hurricane Melissa continued its rampage overnight, smashing through eastern Cuba with winds as high as 120 mph. 

That's better than the 185 mph that parts of Jamaica endured at landfall, but the wind and the incredible flooding just add to the pile of damages in the Caribbean from this incredible storm. 

The wind and rain is finally calming down in Jamaica, so they can start assessing where they stand after their "Storm of the Century."

Calling it that is actually a bit of an understatement. Hurricane Melissa was one of only six storms known in the Atlantic with winds of at least 185 mph. Only three known Atlantic storms - a 1935 hurricane in Florida, Hurricane Dorian in 2019 and Melissa had winds that strong at landfall. 

The National Hurricane Center will eventually review data from Hurricane Melissa to determine whether this stat is accurate. 

Some data suggests that Melissa's winds might have been even stronger, beating the all time record for high winds, which was set in 1980 during Hurricane Allen in the Gulf of Mexico. Those winds were 190 mph. 

As of this morning, we have no idea what the Jamaican death toll is. We only have reports from when the storm was ramping up - three dead.  We don't know what happened when the core of the storm buzz sawed through. 

I'm hoping Jamaica got really lucky in that respect. I imagine we'll learn more later today. 

The western half of Jamaica is especially devastated from the tornado-like winds and massive amounts of water that fell from the sky. Eastern Jamaica seems to be doing better. Video from the capitol, Kingston, shows that city to be largely intact. 

Given that so much of western Jamaica is in ruins, the island nation will need lots of help. Their government has set up a web site that allows people to report problems, the public to donate, and prioritize needs. 

Even the United States, where President Donald Trump does not like to help others, might step in. Trump said, "On a humanitarian basis, we have to. So we're watching it closely and we're prepared to move."

I'm sure there will be more details to come on Jamaican relief efforts. But be forewarned: There will also be a LOT of scammers pretending to be trying to help Jamaica. They'll just steal money that was donated. 

Do some research before donating, and give to reputable charities. 

Melissa's life is fortunately coming to an end soon. It's got one more big stop, in the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. It'll swipe past Bermuda Friday, and then it Melissa will die over the North Atlantic. 

Climate change is being accurate blamed for helping fuel Melissa. But it's more complicated than just climate change. 

True, the Caribbean water that Melissa passed over was the warmest on record, in part due to climate change. 

But also, unlike most years, there were no hurricanes in the Caribbean this year until Melissa. Hurricanes tend to bring cool water up from the depths. So a late season hurricane in the Caribbean would have normally encountered somewhat cooler water than Melissa did. 

If that were the case, Melissa wouldn't have gotten so strong. 

Melissa also moved forward very slowly, almost stalling at times, giving it more time to strengthen. 

More often that not, a slow moving storm like Melissa will eventually choke itself off from the warm water feeding it. A hurricane would draw cooler water to the surface, diminishing its potential power.  

This time, the Caribbean waters were unusually hot to a great depth beneath the surface. Melissa pulled water up from the deep. But that water was warm, too, so the storm kept on strengthening. 

Overall, the research group Climate Central said the conditions that turned Hurricane Melissa into such a monster were made up to 700 times more likely due to human caused climate change.  

One tiny bit of good news: As we approach the end of hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center does not see any potential new tropical storms or hurricanes for at least the next week, probably more. Maybe there won't even be any more, we hope. 

Another Dent In The Drought? Vermont/New England Looks Forward To New Storm

A beautiful, crisp late autumn day yesterday in St 
Albans, Vermont. The blue skies did not necessarily
mean a return to extended dry weather. Another
soggy storm appears to be on the way, 

Us Vermonters enjoyed a beautiful late autumn day Tuesday. Bright sunshine, crisp air, deep blue skies. And in the warmer valleys, lingering gorgeous fall color. 

We had a lot of bright, sunny days over the past few months, which is the problem.  That's how we got into the deep drought the region has endured this autumn. So as wonderful as Tuesday's weather was, is this the start of a new drug trend?  

The great news is no, it's not.

We have another rather sunny, dry day today. But we have another storm coming, and it looks like another sopping wet one. 

So after today, we're in for another extended period of unpleasant weather. Who knew we'd actually look forward to crummy conditions outside?

THE DETAILS

A pretty deep storm is gathering itself over the southeastern U.S. today. It'll move northward today and tonight, ending up somewhere in or near New York State tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, a new storm will get going near the New England coast Thursday night in tandem with the New York storm tomorrow.

This whole mess will be pulling in lots of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. It looks like it might even tap into Hurricane Melissa for a bit of an added boost of wetness.  (I'm doing a separate post this morning on that horrible hurricane). 

If the forecast is accurate, Vermont, along with most of the rest of New England, is in for more than an inch of rain with this one. 

Initial forecasts bring more than an inch of badly
needed rain to Vermont Thursday through early
Saturday. Rain is needed to put another dent 
into our deep drought. 

As you can see in the map I've put in this post, the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks all of Vermont should get an inch or more of rain by early Saturday morning. 

There will be adjustments either up or down on this forecast before the storm arrives, but you get the idea. 

This will be the second soggy storm within 10 days, and we've had other bursts of lighter rain in between. I really think this will diminish the drought somewhat. 

It'll take months of above normal precipitation to fully erase the drought. But for now, we seem to be on the right path. 

The rain should start to arrive Thursday afternoon.  It'll be steadiest and heaviest Thursday night and early Friday. After that, it will turn more showery.  Much of Vermont will be raw and blustery and kind of wet Friday afternoon and into Saturday. 

Precipitation the will be lighter, with the most in northern Vermont, especially the mountains. Valleys, especially in southeastern parts of the state, will have dry periods later Friday and Saturday.  

Like every storm, this one has its quirks and complications. Well also being dealing with gusty winds in some areas, and snow in others. Yeah, it's that time of year. 

WIND

The winds won't exactly be really destructive. This won't be any stretch of the imagination be New England's version of Hurricane Melissa.

But as the storm approaches Thursday, the strongest winds winds will hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts to 40 mph in those areas. 

Then, the new storm that will have formed along the New England coast will really crank itself up as it departs toward the Canadian Maritimes. That means gusty northwest winds for everybody around here Friday night and Saturday. 

SNOW

Now that we're about to get into November, almost every storm will bring more snow than the last. Our mountain summits were graced with a bit of white last week. This storm will bring even more snow. And at lower elevations than the last one, 

The Green Mountain summits should start snowing by early Saturday, and they could a few inches by Sunday. Just to whet skier and snowboarder appetites, I guess.

By Sunday morning, some snow flakes could get as low as 1,200 feet in elevation, says the National Weather Service. So places where people actually live in Vermont will see a little snow, even if it doesn't accumulate.

Saturday will be the rawest, coldest, ugliest day we've had yet. It'll be mainly cloudy, with those gusty winds and temperatures falling through the 40s. Light showers will probably linger, especially north and mountains. And of course those showers will be in the form of snow in the mountains. 

That will be a good slap of reality as we open the month of November, won't it?  

MORE RAIN?

Things should quiet down by Sunday, with seasonable early November weather and no precipitation to speak of, aside from some mountain snow flurries.

Something else looks like it would come through about Tuesday, but it won't be nearly as wet as what the storm at the end of this week. 

The computer models disagree on what will happen early next week. It could be just a cold front with light showers, or a full fledged storm with moderate rain.  

The overall weather pattern does look like an improvement over August, September and early October, though. We've lost those big, dry high pressure systems that would stall over us for days or even weeks at a time.

The new weather pattern doesn't really favor lots of super soaker storms, so don't count on any lingering drought to disappear. But at least some precipitation is likely once every two to four days heading into the middle of November, so we might not backslide into worsening drought again, which would be nice. 

 

 

Hurricane Melissa Slams Jamaica, Now Waiting To Learn The Toll. Likely Will Be Awful

 Hurricane Melissa kept strengthening right until landfall. 

Hurricane hunter planes measuring the strength of
Hurricane Melissa had this view of the storm
inside the eye yesterday 

Sustained winds blew at 185 mph at landfall, something very few people in the world have had the trauma of experiencing.

 In the western hemisphere, perhaps only a couple of hurricanes have made landfall with winds that strong. 

Melissa came ashore midday near New Hope, about 75 miles west of the Kingston, the Capitol of Jamaica. 

It had to be terrifying. Safe here on a bright, blue sky gorgeous late fall day here in Vermont, my heart rate is up just thinking about what those Jamaicans are going through today. 

Starlink, Elon Musk's satellite internet service, will be free for now in Jamaica and the Bahamas so people can get the word out, and tell loved ones who lived, who died. 

Still, won't get a lot of details on death toll, the extent of damage, and recovery right away. In western Jamaica, it's too dangerous to go outside and look.  People will also be just trying to survive. Most won't have time to chat with reporters or post updates online. 

Where Melissa hit square on in southwest Jamaica, the storm was the equivalent of a high end EF-3 or EF-4 tornado. Except tornadoes last only a few minutes and are usually no more than a mile wide  This "tornado" probably lasted more than an hour at least, and was probably 20 to 30 miles wide. 

Imagine your house getting hit by a tornado with 185 mph winds. There wouldn't be all that much left. Now imagine your house getting hit by a dozen or more of such tornadoes, one after another. 

How do you even survive such a thing?

Houses surely disintegrated in the midst of Melissa.   I don't know how many people made it to a hopefully safe shelter and how many stayed in their vulnerable homes.

Most people would be blown off their feet in winds and knocked to the ground in winds of 80 mph.  I don't know for sure if this is accurate, but Google AI says a 180 mph wind is enough launch a person into the air. 

Then those people would become like the rest of the debris flying through the air, trees, branches, planks, sheet metal, siding, roofs. The chances of surviving outdoors in that are pretty much zero. 

The National Hurricane Center was advising people near the eye of Hurricane Melissa to hide under mattresses in an interior room and wear a helmet.  "The best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside," the NHC said. 

Satellite view of Hurricane Melissa late this
afternoon shows the eye has filled in with
clouds as the mountains of Jamaica 
begin to weaken the still
formidable storm. 

Hurricane Melissa had been forecast for a couple days to make landfall in southwestern Jamaica. I'm hoping everyone who could fled to eastern Jamaica. 

The eastern part of the island is having an incredibly tough go at it too. But at least the winds in the east are probably not strong enough to destroy all buildings. Sturdy ones should hold up.   

Images that are coming out of Jamaica are showing catastrophic flooding, with rapidly flowing water in some

As of 5 p.m., Hurricane Melissa was still centered over western Jamaica, heading northeast with top winds of 145 mph.  The mountainous terrain is starting to damage the hurricane, thank gawd. That's down to an intense category 4 hurricane, no longer, a category 5. 

RECORD SETTING

It's unusual for a hurricane to keep on strengthen right up until landfall, but Melissa did. The most recent, dramatic example of a hurricane doing this that I can think of was Category 5 Hurricane Michael, which hit Florida in 2018. 

It looks like Hurricane Melissa probably tied the record for the Atlantic basin for the highest winds and lowest central air pressure at landfall. The air pressure was 892 millibars in the eye, which is an incredibly intense hurricane. 

The reason I say "probably" is because scientists will need to study data after the fact to determine whether the sort of off the cuff measurements taken today are accurate.

WHAT'S NEXT

Hurricane Melissa is still headed toward eastern Cuba, where it will hit tonight with winds as high as 145 mph.  Obviously incredibly nasty flooding is going to happen there, too. 

The hurricane will be weakening, and increasing its forward speed tomorrow as it blasts the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. But it will still be a dangerous storm. 

Hurricane Melissa is still throwing lots of moisture at Hispaniola, so Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic should continue to experience catastrophic flooding tonight. 

The weakening hurricane should sideswipe Bermuda early Friday. As Melissa finally dies over the North Atlantic Friday, it will send some moisture into an otherwise unrelated storm over the Northeast, which will probably make rainfall heavier than it otherwise would be. .

CLIMATE CHANGE STRIKES AGAIN

Hurricane Melissa is the latest in a remarkable string of Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic in recent years. Melissa was the third such hurricane this year. The other two missed land, but our luck ran out with Melissa. 

This hurricane meandered over record warm Caribbean water for days before striking Jamaica, allowing it to strengthen as it did. I mentioned this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Expect plenty more Melissas in the future. 

Per CNN:

"Hurricane Melissa's intensification into the strongest storm on Earth so far this year, and one of the strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Ocean, was field buy unusually hot ocean temperatures in the Caribbean. 

The storms underwent two periods of rapid intensification, with its maximum sustained winds first jumping from 70 mph on Saturday morning to 140 mph just 24 hours later. Then, from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon its peak winds spiked again, going from 140 to mph to 175 mph.

Such bouts of rapid intensification are becoming more frequent as the climate warms. Hurricane Melissa is only the latest in a sting of intense Atlantic hurricanes this year to undergo such extreme rapid strengthening. 

According to the climate science research group Climate Central, the ocean temperatures in the vicinity of Hurricane Melissa's path were about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year. 

The group calculated that along the entire path of the storm so far, the unusually hot sea surface temperatures were at least 500 to 800 times more likely due to global warming."

 

Grim Day In Caribbean As Extreme Hurricane Melissa Nears Jamaica Landfall

Close up satellite view of Hurricane Melissa's eye
nearing southwestern Jamaica at dawn this morning. 

 UPDATE 9 a.m.

It's even worse now.

A recent update just in has maximum winds up to 180 mph, and central pressure down to 896 millibars.

This now tentatively makes this the fifth or sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic on record.

Landfall will be within just a few hours 

I'm dreading the news later today from Jamaica.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hurricane Melissa sank to ridiculous extremes overnight, with winds staying at 175 mph on its approach to Jamaica.  

That the storm has maintained that incredible intensity since at least early yesterday afternoon is really something to dreadfully behold.

 The central pressure this morning in the eye of Hurricane Melissa was 901 millibars, making it the seventh strongest hurricane on record anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean. 

The updates are now coming so fast and furiously now that it's hard to keep up. But we'll give you a good idea and summary of what's going on. 

THIS MORNING'S SITUATION

Winds of tropical storm strength were lashing Jamaica at dawn. Those will quickly go to hurricane force by mid to late morning ahead of an expected landfall early this afternoon.

It's going to be a brutal day in Jamaica to say the least. 

Winds of 175 mph at landfall would flatten pretty much everything. There's a chance Melissa could "weaken" slightly before landfall, but as a practical matter, it won't make a difference.  Winds of, say 165 mph would have pretty much the same effect as winds 10 mph higher.  

To give you an idea how bad it is in there, hurricane hunter planes reportedly detected a gust to 241 mph just 700 feet off the surface offshore of Jamaica last night. 

Once Melissa makes landfall, the effects of hills and mountains can make the hurricane winds locally gust to 1.5 times the overall wind speed. Meaning some pockets in the Jamaican mountains could see gusts to 250 mph. We'll never know for sure, as there are few wind gauges to measure and probably none of those gauges would survive such winds.  

A wider visible satellite image of extreme 
Hurricane Melissa shortly after dawn today. 

The only good news is the area of hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles or so from the eye. That means eastern Jamaica will escape the worst of the winds, but not the worst of the flooding. The water and landslides will be catastrophic island-wide.

Melissa is still moving pretty slowly, with a forward speed of just 5 mph. Most hurricanes, on average move at 10 to 15 mph. 

The slow movement means the extreme rains from Melissa will linger over Jamaica, and neighboring Haiti and Dominican Republic, longer than usual for a hurricane. That would make the terrible flooding with the hurricane even worse.  

I've been watching live cams from Jamaica, at least until the power goes out there. One of them shows the Flat Bridge over the Rio Cobre River in Spanish Town, Jamaica. As of around dawn, the river was a torrent, very high, muddy, full of debris. This was before the intense part of Hurricane Melissa arrived.

Imagine how bad the flooding will be after another one to three feet of rain crashes down on Jamaica today. 

The advice to Jamaicans from the U.S. National Hurricane Center is still dire:

"Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides and destructive winds will continue through today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communications outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa's center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of of life."

On social media, hotel guests reported they are on lockdown. They've been advised to shove mattresses against the windows and huddle behind closed doors in the bathroom during the worst of the storm. 

The social media posts from Jamaica are already frightening. Virtuallywithdee on Threads, has been live posting her experiences with the storm. At 6:15 a.m. she posted:

"The updates are coming faster because I honestly can't believe what I'm seeing. The rain is pouring like someone's throwing buckets of water nonstop - the downpour is wild. Electricity is flickering in and out, and the mobile service is getting spotty. The wind is giving me chills... and she still hasn't even arrived yet."

HORRIBLE DAY AHEAD

Media reports and social media will probably go dark later this morning and stay that way for quite a while after as electricity and cell service collapses in the hardest hit areas. 

I'm worried sick about the fate of Jamaicans. CNN tells us the International Federation of the Red Cross says it expects 1.5 million people - more than half of Jamaica's population - to be directly affected by Hurricane Melissa. 

The worst effects will be across western Jamaica.  The Capitol, Kingston is in the eastern third of the island and expects peak wind gusts of 70 to 85 mph with up to 16 inches of rain. As of 7 a.m. wind was already gusting to 59 mph in Kingston. 

Montego Bay, in northwest Jamaica, should expect peak winds gusts of 100 to 140 mph and up to 20 inches of rain. Scary, indeed.

CUBA 

The worst conditions in eastern Cuba should hit later today and through tonight. 

In Santiago de Cuba, peak wind gusts are forecast to be in the 100 to 120 mph range, with about a foot of rain. Some nearby hillsides could see two feet of rain. 

Heavy rain is already falling in Cuba and that should get worse through the day. 

HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Hurricane Melissa is passing to the west of these two nations, but it's still having a catastrophic effect there, especially in Haiti. Extreme flash floods and landslides are likely there this week. Tropical storm force winds will also hit Haiti. 

Several deaths have already been reported in Haiti due to flooding and landslides. 

Hurricane Melissa is still forecast to smash through the southeastern Bahamas tomorrow and Thursday before heading into the open Atlantic. It could lash Bermuda with strong winds early Friday before it races into the cold northern Atlantic Ocean where it will finally die over the weekend.  

Hurricane Melissa Even Stronger On Approach To Jamaica. Very Scary

Satellite photo of Hurricane Melissa this afternoon.
It's a classic example of a super strong hurricane at
its peak. Note the perfectly circular core surrounding
a tiny eye, and a huge spray of outflow clouds
mainly to its east. 

The 5 p.m. update on Hurricane Melissa from the National Hurricane Center just came in and it's not a good one.  

Top sustained winds in Melissa were at 175 mph. 

One measurement around noon or so indicated a surface wind of 188 mph, which, if accurate, is incredible. 

According to meteorologist/hurricane expert John Morales, the air pressure at the center of Melissa was 908 millibars early this afternoon, which made it the 11th strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic. 

As of 5 p.m. the pressure was down to 906 millibars, making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane for so late in the season. Melissa is also the world's strongest tropical cyclone so far in 2025.

The hurricane is forecast to make landfall Tuesday on the southern coast of Jamaica probably on the western half of the island. Everybody there, including tourists, were hunkering down and hoping for the best. The airports are closed, and cruise lines have gotten out of Dodge, so to speak. 

As of midafternoon, Melissa was already responsible for eight deaths, five in Haiti, two in Jamaica and one in Dominican Republic. 

The main body of Melissa is a perfectly circular buzzsaw, with its intense winds still just offshore of Jamaica after this afternoon. It's probably at peak intensity now, Even if it starts to weaken a little before landfall, it will be far too little, far too late. 

On satellite, it looks like a classic, intense hurricane. Besides the circular buzzsaw core, it's got a tiny little eye, surrounded by lightning flashes and a huge spray of clouds billowing far to the east of the center. That's the storm's outflow, which is contributing to torrential rains in Haiti, Dominican Republic and elsewhere. 

This will be by far the worst hurricane Jamaica has ever experienced. And it will also be a huge nightmare for Cuba, too. The southeast Bahamas are still seriously under the gun, too. 

QUIET SEASON UNTIL NOW

The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 names storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

This year, including Melissa there have been 14 named storms, five hurricanes, three of them category 5. Only 2005 had that many or more Category 5 hurricanes, which have winds of at least 157 mph. 

Until Melissa, you'd never know it's been such an active season. Except for relatively weak Tropical Storm Chantal, which hit the Carolinas in July, none have hit the United States. This will be the first year since 2015 with no U.S. hurricane landfalls, unless there's some sort of November surprise.

Melissa will miss the United States. And Melissa is the first hurricane to directly strike land while close to its full fury.  So until now, this year was "one of the most benign hurricane seasons in a long time."

EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT

Melissa grew from a tropical storm to a major hurricane in almost a blink of an eye. That's been the pattern this year. 

As CNN states

"Melissa isn't just another major hurricane. It's the latest in a string of Atlantic storms that have exploded in strength at breakneck speed.

Melissa grew from a 70 mph tropical storm Saturday to a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane by early Sunday. This 70 mph wind speed increase in only 24 hours is double the criteria storms need to meet in out to qualify as rapid intensifiers. 

This type of explosive strengthening used to rare, but is happening more often as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution. "

Four of the five Atlantic hurricanes in 2025 have undergone extremely rapid intensifications: Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Melissa. 

Climate change does seem to be affecting how many particularly strong hurricanes there are out there. As Jeff Masters at Yale Climate Connections writes:

"Numerous studies over the past 20 years have found that hurricane strength storms are not becoming more numerous globally, but the fraction of such storms that reach Category 4 or 5 strength is growing and is expected to keep growing, so the world is seeing more pop these intense tropical cyclones, which tend to be the most deadly and dangerous ones."

We're increasingly going to have disasters like this. It's already been a big problem in the past decade. Harvey in 2017, Michael in 2018, Ida in 2021, Beryl, Helene and Milton last year. It's going on and on and going to get worse. 

In other words, we're going to have quite a lot of Jamaica calamities in the coming years.   

Australian Rain Forests Have Stopped Sucking Up Carbon

Rain forests absorb carbon from the air, and they are 
considered a key ally in the fight against climate
change. But a study in an Australian rain
forest suggests after climate change might
turn these forests into carbon emitters. 

Tropical rain forests in Australia have stopped following the rules. 

Rain forests are supposed to be "carbon sinks." That means live trees in the forest absorb carbon from the air more than dead trees in that forest emit into the atmosphere. If you don't like climate change, rain forests are your friend. 

Or at least used to be, in Australia, anyway. Tropical rainforests there have begun to release more carbon into the air than they take in. 

The problem is that extreme temperatures, drought and arid air masses are killing trees. Queensland, Australia has also experienced an increasing number of cyclones, and the ones they're getting are becoming more severe.

These storms are killing more trees and making it harder for new ones to grow and take the fallen trees' place.

There's been more tree deaths than growth, so when trees die and begin to rot, they release stored carbon back into the air. 

The change in Australian rain forests isn't new, but it's newly discovered. And it is a change from what it always has been. 

The Smithsonian explains about how researchers looked at the rain forests plants:

"The tracked plants absorbed about 552 pounds of carbon per acre on average, each year from 1971 to 2000. Then, from 2010 to 2019, they emitted about 830 pounds of carbon per acre, on average, each year."

All this could have implications elsewhere.   

The Australian rain forests are the first to transition from so-called carbon sinks, which store carbon grabbed from the air, into areas that release carbon into the atmosphere. The researchers said they feared other rain forests around the world would suffer the same fate. 

"And that's really significant. It could be a sort of canary in the coal mine," said Dr. Hannah Carne of the Western Sydney University, according to the BBC.

"Current models may overestimate the capacity of the tropical forests to help offset fossil fuel emissions," Carle added. 

Especially since other rain forests might well follow the example of Australia. 

Per Smithsonian:

"No other rainforests have yet shown evidence of emitting more carbon than they absorb. The Amazon rainforest has shown an overall decline in carbon capacity, and part of it has become a carbon source due to human caused deforestation and forest - but its trees have responded to increased CO2 in the atmosphere by increasing their own growth."

But that ability to increase absorption might have a limit. And the research in Australia illustrates those limits might be close in places like the Amazon.  

Hurricane Melissa Category 5 This Morning, Jamaica Is In BIG Trouble

Satellite view of Hurricane Melissa this morning
The pinpoint eye is a sure sign of an incredibly'
intense hurricane that will hit Jamaica.

 Hurricane Melissa was upgraded to Category 5 this morning, with top winds of 160 mph had its sights on Jamaica as it crawls across the superheated waters of the Caribbean Sea. 

Those very warm waters are fueling Melissa's strength and the hurricane's strength won't change all that much before the eye reaches Jamaica Tuesday morning. 

The advice from the National Hurricane Center to Jamaicans was harsh:

"Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday. 

Destructive winds, especially in the mountains, will begin this evening, leading to extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through Tuesday."

This will be the strongest, worst hurricane on record for Jamaica. Despite its hurricane-prone location in the western Caribbean, Jamaica has never been hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, though several hurricanes have affected the island. 

The worst hurricane in Jamaica until now was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. That high end Category 3 storm killed 45 people and caused $700 million in damage. 

This hurricane is the third this year to achieve Category 5 in the Atlantic this year. Only 2005 had more such monsters. 

Hurricane Melissa might or might not be Category 5 when it makes landfall in Jamaica. Intense hurricanes usually re-adjust the circle of intense thunderstorms and winds around the eye, and those readjustments can sometimes briefly and slightly weaken a hurricane.

So Melissa could end up being a Category 4 by the time it reaches Jamaica. If that happens, top winds would be 130 to 156 mph, not the 160 mph Melissa carried this morning.  But if Melissa weakens ever so slightly, it won't matter. 

As the National Hurricane Center noted this morning: "Both categories can produce catastrophic wind damage. In addition, winds in the mountains of Jamaica are likely to be higher than the winds at sea level, and are likely to add to the seriousness of the situation."

Tropical storm conditions are hitting Jamaica already. Webcams this morning showed gusty winds and rough surf in Kingston's harbor and in other areas.

They've already had bursts of torrential rain, and that will continue with increasing intensity well into tomorrow.  Flooding is already ongoing, and the landslides and floods will become catastrophic. 

As I noted yesterday, I don't know what will happen to people who are in their safe space, only for a landslide to destroy it. How will they move to another safe place in winds of more than 100 mph with debris flying through the air. 

The worst winds will come within a 30 to 50 mile radius on Jamaica, which is roughly 150 miles wide and 50 miles long.  It looks like the worst effects of Melissa will hit the western and maybe central parts of the island.

So parts of Jamaica will thankfully miss the worst of the winds, at least in low elevations,  but all of Jamaica will suffer through the floods. Up to three and a half feet of rain is likely in some parts of Jamaica. 

The Jamaican coastline, at least parts of it, can expect a storm surge of nine to 13 feet. That's potentially high enough to flood the nation's main airport in the capitol, Kingston. 

AFTER JAMAICA

Part of the destructive force of Hurricane Melissa is the fact that it is moving forward so slowly. That would prolong the destructive force of the rain and winds.

Once Hurricane Melissa gets past Jamaica, it will slowly start to weaken, and pick up forward speed. But it will still be a major hurricane by the time it reaches eastern Cuba early Wednesday, with expected winds of 120 mph.  Melissa will then move on into the southeastern Bahamas later Wednesday or early Thursday. 

By Friday, Melissa will be racing northeastward near Bermuda, then it will finally die in the North Atlantic. 

While Melissa is far out in the Atlantic Ocean,  an unrelated nor'easter will be developing along the East Coast. That nor'easter might siphon deep moisture from Hurricane Melissa and make the rain especially heavy along parts of the East Coast.

It's unclear if that for sure will happen, and if so, where. Up here in Vermont, the nor'easter will very likely bring us some badly needed rain, but so far it looks like the really heavy rain might avoid the Green Mountain State.

Meanwhile, back in the Caribbean, Haiti and the Dominican Republic won't be directly hit by Hurricane Melissa. But it's close enough to have dumped a lot of rain on those countries and will continue to do so. 

Horrific flooding will continue there for the next couple days.  There have already been at least three deaths in Haiti because of the heavy rain and flooding. 

Hurricane Melissa Explodes In Caribbean; Is Dire Threat To Jamaica, Maybe Cuba

Forecast track and timing of Hurricane Melissa, which
is about to decimate the island of Jamaica. 

Jamaicans, and weather forecasters are waking up to a horror this morning. 

Hurricane Melissa is following the worst case scenario, having blown up from a tropical storm to a powerful hurricane packing 140 mph in a matter of less than 18 hours. 

Worse, the storm is still getting strong, still moving forward at a snails pace, and still locking in on Jamaica as a target.

Melissa is forecast to reach Category 5 intensity today, the strongest possible hurricane. It would be the third category 5 Atlantic hurricane this year, which is incredibly rare. Climate change doesn't seem to make hurricanes more frequent, but it does seem to make it more likely that some of them will reach intense Category 5 intensity. 

Fortunately, the other two Cat 5's of 2025, Erin and Humberto, did not hit land.

Our luck has run out with Melissa. 

As of this morning, Melissa was moving over water that is record hot, 88 or 89 degrees. This patch of water under Melissa is the warmest of anywhere in the Atlantic.  The hotter the water, the more fuel for a hurricane, and the stronger it will become. 

Whether it's still a category 5 or a "mere" category 4 when Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica, probably Tuesday morning, is besides the point. This is going to be a devastating, deadly blow to the island. 

It's already been raining for weeks in Jamaica.  The soil is saturated. There was flooding even before Melissa entered the picture. 

Hurricanes always dump incredible amounts of rain. You virtually always have inland flooding once they come ashore.  Most hurricanes come and go, with a forward speed of maybe 10 to 15 mph.

Melissa's forward speed was just 5 mph this morning. As a tropical storm and more recently a hurricane, it was just sitting over the Caribbean, dumping heavy rain on Haiti and Jamaica before it ever grew into the monster it is now. Melissa will only just begin to move faster over Jamaica, but it will be much too little, much too late. 

More than three feet of rain is expected on at least parts of the island, guaranteeing horrific landslides and catastrophic flooding. Jamaica is mountainous, so it's especially prone to flash flooding and heavy rains. That was the problem in western North Carolina last year with Hurricane Helene. The water just cataclysmically rushed down those slopes. Same will happen in Jamaica.

The wind will tear things apart for sure, but the flooding will be much worse.

How do you run away from flash flooding and mudslides when the wind is gusting well past 100 mph and debris is flying through the air like giant box cutters, slicing through everything?

I'm just sick about this. 

In the past, the United States would often swoop in with truly lifesaving aid when there's an extreme disaster like what is about to happen in Jamaica. But the Trump administration has turned its back on the rest of the world. So the suffering will be even worse due to the indifference of MAGA. We might send aid, but not the way we once did. 

Hurricane Melissa won't directly hit Haiti, but its torrential rains are blasting that impoverished nation on Hispaniola. This will be a nightmare for them too. We already have reports of three people killed by Melissa in Haiti and one in neighboring Dominican Republic.

We need to include Cuba in this mix. Once Melissa is done with Jamaica, it will move on to eastern Cuba. The storm might be slightly weaker than it will have been in Jamaica, but it still will be a powerhouse, with extreme flooding and seriously damaging winds in Cuba by late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

From there, Melissa will head northeastward, blasting through the Bahamas with more destruction before heading out into the open Atlantic Ocean. It might threaten Bermuda toward Friday. Then it should finally die out in the cold North Atlantic next weekend.  

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: Somewhat Encouraging For Drought Relief

For most of Vermont, today is dawning as another dreary one, as the sky is having a lot of trouble clearing out. 

A carpet of leaves beneath a sugar maple in St. Albans
Vermont during yesterday's overcast. We're rapidly
getting into stick season. The hope is November will
be wet, and there are chances of some storms, 

We've gotten into that time of year in which it doesn't get sunny too easily, even if there's high pressure nearby. 

We're actually going through a typical November/December type thing now, in which moisture from the Great Lakes, cold air aloft and lingering moisture keep us cloudy. 

Going into this week, it looks like an inversion might set up, meaning we'll have a layer of warm air a few thousand feet up.

That kind of set up also tends to keep thins pretty overcast. The heat from the sun when it is high and strong in the late spring and summer tends to mix the air and get rid of inversions. Which clears the sky. '

The low sun angle this time of year doesn't really have the power to do that.  WHile there is a chance we might clear out at times Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, don't count on it. Especially in northern valleys.

In a way, this is good, because the overcast doesn't allow us to dry out as much as a sunny, unseasonably warm day would.  With our ongoing drought, we don't need things to get worse. 

RAIN CHANCES

What we really need is a series of nice soaking rains like we had this past week. We do have an uncertain shot of something like that toward the end of the upcoming week. And extended forecasts are slightly optimistic on precipitation chances.

The late week shot at rain would come from a potential nor'easter. As always, whether we in Vermont get some decent rains depends on the track of the storm. Too far offshore, and we get nothing spectacular. 

A track that hugs the coast or goes a little inland would be wonderful. And wet.

There's even a chance that horrible Hurricane Melissa would do some good after causing a lot of pain and suffering in the Caribbean.  By the end of the week. Melissa is expected to be out in the Atlantic Ocean, far off the East Coast, zipping northward and weakening. 

There is a chance that the nor'easter could syphon some moisture extra
off of Melissa, and that would enhance the rains in New England. That scenario is far, far from a slam dunk, but it would be nice. 

After our hoped for late week or weekend nor'easter, we want to look for even more rain. We've kept telling you it would take a long time to dig ourselves out of the drought, and that's still so true. Yeah, it might seem damp to you outside now, but we need a lot of rain to really soak into the ground and recharge aquifers and such. 

Extended forecasts are not as reliable, and much more broad brush than the predictions for the next few days. The long range forecasts out this weekend do give us some more hope for more rain. 

The six to ten day outlook, which runs from Halloween to November 4, leans toward above normal precipitation, which makes sense, considering there might be a coastal storm around then. 

The 8 to 14 day outlook, which goes from November 2 to  9, is a tossup, giving us near normal precipitation, with below normal temperatures. Maybe the first snows of the season? We shall see! 

There's also a NOAA three to four week outlook, which takes us well into mid-November. That forecast slightly favors above normal precipitation in northern New England,  but it's not a perfect setup for big soakers. 

A decent share of the computer models in that three to four week range  place a dip in the jet stream somewhere near or over Quebec.  That's not ideal, as it could steer the wettest storms off to our south and east.

However, even if the three to four week forecast is correct, the location and the strength of that dip in the jet stream would vary.   Exactly where it sets up, if it sets up, and how it interacts with other weather systems would determine how much and what kind of precipitation we get.

Note I said what kind. Once we get into November, all bets are off. We could get rain, snow, ice, a mix, you name it.  

At least it's beginning to appear we're escaping that horrible weather pattern we had in August, September and much of October in which warm, arid, sunny high pressure systems would stall over us for weeks at a time. 

This blog thingy might, for a change, frequently mention oncoming inclement weather.  For once, if we get lucky, Vermonters might end up embracing our famously bad November weather. 

Another House Into North Carolina Ocean, As More Storms Loom

An 11th house to fall into the ocean at the Outer Banks
of North Carolina sits in the water shortly after it fell
last weekend. The one that fell is on the right. The one on
the left was damaged by the wreckage and is in danger,
The green house in the background
is also ready to go

 In case you're keeping track, another North Carolina house fell into the Atlantic Ocean a week ago.

And there really wasn't much of a storm going on. Like many houses battered by recent storms, the sand dunes removed from underneath them, it was time to sadly collapse. 

It was the 11th one to go since mid-August, when powerful Hurricane Erin passed by far offshore. Under sunny, beach weather skies, Erin send battering waves into Cape Hatteras, starting the chain of collapses, 

They all went due to large swells from offshore hurricanes, or a fairly routine nor'easter. Theses were by no means any kind of record breaking, intense storms raking North Carolina's Outer Banks. 

It's just the ever shifting sands of barrier islands, which want to move westward, leaving the houses to the whims of the ocean. This is made all the more precarious by rising sea levels brought on by climate change. 

Which means this isn't going away,.

The house that collapses last Saturday was built in 1956.  It was once well inland from the beach, but the sands shifted and eroded, and the sea level came up, making its destruction inevitable.

The wreckage of the house that just fell smacked into another one, which I'm sure caused damage. There's other houses, battered, on rickety stilts cracked by the pounding of waves, which will inevitably make them fall.

Maybe within the next few days. 

Two nor'easters, one Tuesday, the other Thursday or Friday, will buffet the Carolina coast. Hurricane Melissa, now menacing the Caribbean, is expected to finally scoot northward far offshore the East Coast toward the end of the upcoming week. Melissa will probably swing more battering ocean waves into the Outer Banks, too.

Video:

Aerial views of the latest house to collapse into the waves, and views of other homes that are in imminent danger. As always when I put videos in this here blog thingy, click on this link to view. or if you see the image below, click on that.