This Will Probably Be the Best Vermont Summer Weather Weekend Of The Summer

The table is set for probably the best weather weekend
of this summer in Vermont. 

UPDATE 6 PM FRIDAY

Today worked out just about as expected in what I wrote this morning. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than I thought there'd be. 

Still not much, but enough to make the 

are quality go from good to just moderate at times. 

This might be the state of affairs all weekend. Other than that, the forecast I outlined below for Saturday and Sunday hasn't changed much at all from what I wrote below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 For Vermont summer weather enthusiasts, and for tourists who picked this weekend to come to the Green Mountain State, this is your weekend.  

It'll have everything you need: A lot of sunshine, some comfortable nights, a warm but temperate Saturday and a fairly hot Sunday - perfect for a visit to the beach.

In other words we're in for a respite from the storms, downpours and humidity that always seemed to hang over our heads. Or at least threaten to.  

The cold front that came through Thursday had a little more oomph than I thought it might. By late afternoon, temperatures in the northern half of the state had fallen into the low 70s. It actually felt genuinely cool out there, something I haven't experienced in awhile. 

This morning, we're starting off with temperatures within a couple degrees of 60. The humidity is low, the air is fresh. 

Which sets the tone for the weekend. 

We'll almost have wall to wall sunshine today through Sunday.  The sky will occasionally be dotted with some fair well cumulus clouds during the days. Mostly for decoration and to grace the Instagram photos you'll be taking. Or something like that. 

The sky could also have a hazy quality to it at times, thanks to worsening wildfires in western Canada and the western United States. Any smoke will remain aloft, so air quality should stay pretty safe.

Being the pessimist the I can be, I'm looking for some other potential problems that'll interfere with this great weather. I'm coming up almost empty.  A weak disturbance might set off an isolated light shower in the Northeast Kingdom this afternoon. Any showers will come and go in a flash. But without lightning flashes. No thunderstorms today. 

I wonder if a tiny, weak upper level disturbance moving inland from the New England coast could throw clouds our way to an extent Sunday. But right now the air looks too dry, and the lame disturbance too weak and too far east to create any unexpected overcast. 

Temperatures will be on an uphill climb between today and Sunday. It should get to near 80 today with low humidity. Which means today is your best bet for exertion, like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump or something like that. 

After another comfortable night, Saturday gets  little warmer, sneaking up into the low 80s. Sunday is your beach day with temperatures in many areas getting into the upper 80s.  Traditional banana belt towns in parts of the Champlain Valley could flirt with 90.  Humidity on Sunday will be reasonable, though. 

BACK TO THE GRIND

Once we get into the new work week after our fun weekend, it's back to the grind. Both for work and the kind of weather we'll have.

It'll be back to daily warmth, humidity and thunderstorm and downpour risks. At this stage of the game, Monday looks like it should stay rain-free for the vast majority of us.  It'll be well into the 80s to maybe near 90 again, and you'll notice the humidity creeping up on us. 

Then, for the rest often week, the Bermuda High will keep pumping very warm, humid air our way, while weak, slow moving disturbances pushing in will bring us daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. 

It's impossible to tease out which days will be the stormiest, but in general, most of the lightning and downpours should come in the afternoons and evenings.

Our sunny weekend will help soils dry out, so that might limit flash flood risks in the downpours, unless they persist for days. 

One cautionary tale comes from the long range forecasts. 

If the six to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks are correct - and there's absolutely no guarantee of that - then we could be in for some volatile weather in the opening days of August. 

The forecast hot temperatures and above normal rainfall - if they actually happen - imply humidity and the atmospheric sparks that could trigger torrential rains and possibly severe storms or even renewed localized flash floods.   That's something that Vermont can live without after what has so far been a rather hot and stormy summer. 

Another Tornado Fairly Close To, But Not IN Vermont

Power lines arc in this screen
grab of last evening's tornado
in Brossard, Quebec.

On July 18, I told you how this summer, tornadoes have had a habit of spinning in unusual numbers in the Northeast, close to Vermont, but not IN the Green Mountain State.  

We just had another example Wednesday. 

This time, a tornado touched down in Brossard, Quebec, which is immediately across the St. Lawrence River from Montreal.  Brossard is roughly 50 miles from the border crossing in Highgate, Vermont. 

The tornado last evening in Brossard damaged the roofs of at least two commercial buildings, overturned a tractor trailer truck. The driver suffered minor injuries. The twister also uprooted trees. Video of the tornado showed debris flying in the air and power flashes as the storm snapped electrical lines. 

Other possible tornadoes on Wednesday touched down about 35 miles southwest of Quebec City and roughly 40 miles northwest of Montreal, says Environment Canada. 

In our general area, a few severe thunderstorms popped up in northwestern New York during the day Wednesday and caused a bit of tree and power line damage.

 A severe thunderstorm warning was briefly issued for parts of far northwestern Vermont last evening as a strong storm developed near Chazy, New York. But that storm quickly weakened as it crossed Lake Champlain into Grand Isle and Franklin counties in Vermont. 

One to two dozen  tornadoes occur virtually every year across the southern half of Quebec.  Most are pretty minor. 

Much like in the United States, Canada's "tornado alley" of sorts has been shifting east. Both the northeastern United States, and Ontario and Quebec have in recent year seen an uptick in twisters.

Last year was an exception, with only ten Quebec tornadoes, but there seems to be a fair number so far this year. Examples include a fairly destructive one west of Montreal on May 27, and three others in the province on June 13. 

Meanwhile, a remarkable 21 tornadoes have been confirmed in New York State this July, bringing the total for the year to 23. The most tornadoes in a single year across New York is 25 in 1992. The latest confirmed tornado was a brief EF-0 Wednesday in Broadalbin, New York. 

For those of us who don't like tornadoes, thunderstorms, much less tornadoes are unlikely in most of New England and Quebec through Monday.  Certainly no tornadoes are in the forecast for that period. 

Global Temperature Record Set Sunday, Then Broken Again On Monday

The world had its hottest day on record this past Monday, at least by one measurement. 

Earth had its warmest day on record Sunday, at least by
one measurement. Then that record was broken on Monday.

Bear with me, as this will be a little number-heavy, but here goes:  

According to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, on Monday, July 22, the global average temperature was 17.15 Celsius, or 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit. 

This broke the record set a day earlier, on July 21, 

The global average temperature on July 21 was 17.09 Celsius, or 62.76 degrees Fahrenheit.

That record which lasted a day is an almost indistinguishable bit higher than the previous record, 17.08 degrees Celsius (62.74 F) set on July 6, 2023.

What is striking is how much hotter the world has been in 2023 and 2024 than in previous years and decades. For 13 months ending in recent weeks. global temperatures have run far above any previous levels. 

Says Copernicus: 

"Before July 2023, the previous daily global average temperature record was 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees F) on August 13, 2016, Since 3 July 2023, there have been 57 days that have exceeded that previous record, distributed between July and August, 2023 and during June and July so far in 2024."

The difference between 62.24 and 62.76 degrees F doesn't seem like much at all, but if you average out the whole world, that's a pretty big gap. 

And if you look at the charts showing the temperatures globally every year since 1940, the temperatures in 2023 and 2024 look really out of whack warm.  Back in the mid-1970s,  the peak global temperature annually was around 15.5 degrees Celsius, or 60.35 degrees F.  

This is one of a zillion measures of how climate change is making the world a vastly different place. The records this week will surely be exceeded again. Not sure if it will happen this week,  next week, next summer or a few years from now, but it's inevitable. 

Click on this chart to make it bigger and easier to see.
It shows that through 2023 and 2024 until 
recently, global temperatures have run far
above any other previous years. The lighter-
colored squiggles represent every year
from 1940 to 2022.

A big winter warm spell - at least by their frigid standards - in Antarctica contributed to this week's records by skewing the data even more towards warm. 

Although a new record beyond Monday's could be set this week or next, data indicates global temperatures will back off ever so slightly in the coming days. 

Some scientists say Monday might have been Earth's hottest day in 100,000 years. 

Even though Antarctica contributed to the world's warmth, if you're going to break the record for the world's hottest day, you pretty much have to do it in June, July or August. 

It's winter in the Southern Hemisphere, of course, but Copernicus explains why global temperatures peak in the Northern Hemisphere summer. 

"The global average temperature tends to reach its annual peak between late June and early August, coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere summer. This is because the seasonal patterns of the Northern Hemisphere drive the overall global temperatures. 

The large land masses of the Northern Hemisphere warm up faster than the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere can cool down during the northern summer months. "

In the days and weeks before Sunday and Monday, the global average temperatures was flirting with  near-record levels hovering just slightly below the levels of 2023.  

Global average temperatures have been setting record highs for their respective dates for more than a year before a few fell below those marks earlier this July.  Outside of summer, of course, the global average temperature are cooler than their peak which comes annually around now.   

We in Vermont sat out the world's hottest day. Temperatures Sunday and Monday here were close to normal for our region.   Sunday was Burlington's  third coolest so far this month which overall has been warmer than normal, as you've probably noticed.     

Where Are All The Hurricanes? They're Unfortunately Still On The Way

Satellite view of Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean
on July 2. Since then, there has pretty much been
no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. But experts
say the forecasted very busy hurricane season is
still on the way, with things likely ramping up 
big time during August. 

This year's hurricane season got off to its expected horrible start in late June when Hurricane Beryl, the strongest hurricane in the Caribbean for so early in the season, started its horrible path of catastrophe in the Windward Islands. 

On into early July, Beryl caused disaster and heartache in Jamaica, Mexico, Texas (especially the Houston area), Arkansas, the Ohio Valley, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Nova Scotia. 

Since then, pretty much nothing, thank goodness. Except a nothing burger Tropical Storm Chris on June 30, which lasted barely 12 hours and never produced winds much above tropical storm force. 

This has people asking, "I thought this was supposed to be a super-charged, incredibly busy hurricane season."  

As recently as July 9, the closely watched Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast was updated to actually slightly increase the expected number of storms from its previous already record breaking busy prediction. 

So where are the tropical storms and hurricanes? As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center was forecasting no tropical storm development for at least 48 hours, probably even more. 

Ominously, they're still coming. 

Let's just say the National Hurricane Center isn't granting any PTO to its employees in August, September and October. 

After Beryl's departure, vast clouds of dust from the Sahara Desert blew westward across the Atlantic Ocean, precisely in the band in the tropics where hurricanes are most likely to form. 

Saharan dust tends to stifle tropical storm development. These clouds of Saharan dust over the Atlantic are very common in June and July, which is one reason why tropical storms and hurricanes are relatively rare during the first half of summer. 

This year's July dust is by one measure the second-densest since 2002.  However, like virtually every year in history, the dust is getting set to sharply diminish as we head into August.  That'll help tropical storms form. 

There's also a natural cycle that happens every few weeks in which the air over the areas in the Atlantic where hurricanes want to form that causes sinking air. Sinking air prevents the thunderstorms that are wannabe tropical storms from forming. 

That sinking cycle has been over the storm forming region recently, but is now starting to move on. 

So: The dust is going away, the sinking air is going away, the oceans keep heating up more and more, and that's jet fuel for hurricanes.  We're also shifting into a global La Nina pattern which should really start to gets its legs steady in August. 

All those signs point to the Atlantic Ocean exploding with storms during August, especially in the second half, when hurricanes really start to form easily in normal years, much less setups like we're seeing now. 

Already, some long range forecasts are starting to detect signs of a possible tropical storm or storms forming in the first week of August. 

Where all the expected tropical storms and hurricanes go will determine whether we'll have more disasters and calamities like Beryl. 

Vermont Storm Chances Iffy, Risk Of Oncoming Heat Wave Not So Iffy

A peaceful, sunny summer early morning in St. Albans, 
Vermont today. Sun will struggle with clouds,
showers and storms again later today. 

 I was a bit concerned yesterday afternoon and evening as slow moving downpours seem to linger over north central Vermont, mostly along and a little south of Route 2.  

Those were the areas hit hard by the flooding this month, and they didn't need more of it.  

Luckily, the downpours were small in size. And they did move around a little, so I so far see no reports of any further damage. No flood warnings. All good. For once. 

It looks like there were just pinpoint spots of downpours that might have left behind an inch or two of rain.  Most towns didn't get all that much rain,For instance, Montpelier picked up around a half inch of rain Tuesday, which was manageable. 

Summer does bring variable rainfall.  Here's a great example. Between unexpected heavier showers late Saturday night and rain early Tuesday morning, my unofficial rain gauge picked up 1.1 inches of rain. Meanwhile, just 30 miles to the south, Burlington received just 0.1 inches of rain in that time. 

TODAY/THURSDAY

We got more hits and misses to go today and to a lesser extent tomorrow. Summer rainfall forecasts are almost always frustrating. You know there's going to be showers and storms. You just don't know who will get a sprinkle and who will get drenched. 

There's an excellent chance of showers and storms in Vermont this afternoon and evening. In fact, we're still in a marginal risk area for excessive rain, says NOAA, which means there could be an isolated instance of flash flooding again later today. 

It won't be anything widespread. There's a somewhat greater risk of local flooding in the Adirondacks of New York, which received heavier rain Tuesday morning, and has a better chance of seeing torrential rain later today than Vermont does.

In a post I made yesterday, I mentioned Thursday might have a slightly better chance of local flash floods. The good news is since yesterday, forecasters have backed way off on the chances of heavier rain tomorrow. 

Weak boundaries and a cold front are coming through a little earlier than was thought and previous forecasts. That means we won't have as much time during the heat of the day to develop torrential storms. There will be some scattered stuff around but nothing super scary.

HEAT WAVE?

Widespread heat is expected again in the U.S.
next week. For the Central Plains and 
northern New England, the chances of
hot weather are pretty much a slam dunk. 

While the hit and miss nature of summer storms sometimes puzzles forecasters and especially the public, confidence is growing that we're in for another hot spell.

Initially, tomorrow's cold front will introduce a short spell of very reasonable humidity, comfortable nighttime sleeping weather and gorgeous days starting Friday afternoon and continuing Saturday. 

The weekend looks to be classic summer, with seasonably warm (low 80s) temperatures on Saturday and readings way up in the 80s on Sunday with sunny skies.  

After that, the high pressure coming in from southern Canada will merge with the Bermuda High, leasing to a strong northward bulge in the jet stream over the Northeast and eastern Canada.

That will introduce a potentially long lasting spell of hot weather beginning in earnest Monday and possibly continuing most of, or all of next week. 

A six to 10 day outlook from NOAA covering July 29 to August 2 is as confidence at you can possibly get that we'll have above normal temperatures in our neck of the woods. 

How hot it actually will get depends on whether thunderstorms get added to the mix or if any upper level disturbances can temper the heat and humidity a bit. But if you like cool, dry breezes, next week won't be your week. 

New Mexico Continues To Endure Post Wildfire Flash Floods, Video Shows How Fast They Come

 A  gorgeous area of southern New Mexico can't catch a weather break.  

A motorist wisely turns around as floodwaters surge
across a road in Riuidoso, New Mexico las 
Saturday. The road was dry and clear three minutes earlier.

I told you back on July 4 about Ruidoso, New Mexico, which keeps getting hit by floods after wildfires in the surrounding hills. As of the Fourth of July, the denuded hillsides yielded flash floods and debris flows as downpours hit the area.  

Since then, it's kept getting worse. 

Says the Washington Post:

Ruidoso, a scenic town of nearly 8,000 in southern New Mexico, is now at the mercy of an enduring, double-barreled disaster. Two massive fires broke out last month along the mountains encircling the town, torching more than 25,000 acres, burning nearly a thousand homes and killing two people.

Then, eight times and counting since June 21, including Saturday, floodwaters have cascaded down those same mountainsides into the village."

The trees and shrubs that held the steep hillsides surrounding Ruidoso used to keep the rocks and soil up there in place. The fires removed all that. So now, as Andrew Mangham, a National Weather Service hydrologist told the Washington Post, it's as if giant plastic sheets have been placed over the mountains. 

Those "plastic sheets" are littered with teetering burned tree trunks and piles ash that start sliding downhill at the slightest bit of bad weather. Which means even run of the mill routine summer thunderstorms are setting off the flash floods and big debris flows. 

Flooding this past Saturday was probably the worst yet.   Rain Friday night and early Saturday soaked what little ground was left, then new downpours struck in the afternoon.  Ruidoso officials said prior to Saturday, the highest the water got in one main creek was 12.5 feet. Saturday, it reached 15.5 feet, so that must have damaged homes worse than previous events.

The video in this link shows what it's like, and is really worth watching.  Notice how fast the water comes up and crossed the road. Also notice the road above the water is dry. All the rain that caused this latest wave hit in the hills above. (I'm having you click on the link to the video rather than just display it so they videographer can collect the clicks and views). 

In the initial part of the video, a couple cars make it through, but afterwards, motorists wisely opted to obey the "Turn Around Don't Drown"  rule. The water and debris quickly overruns and cuts around temporary dikes built to protect property.

The video is a cautionary tale for anyone, anywhere demonstrating how suddenly a flash flood goes from not a big deal to big time dangerous.

The videographer of the above, Jesus Figuera, has a whole YouTube channel devoted to what Ruidoso is going through, and it's definitely worth checking out. 

It's monsoon season in the Southwest, which means the area is in for more downpours, and more floods.  It will take years for the hills around Ruidoso to recover enough to hold water and soil in place.

 

 

Peak Of Summer Brought Us A Brief Break. Now It's Back To Humidity, Downpours, And Eventually Heat Again

On average, if you have to pick the exact height of summer, it's right around July 21.

My Quick Fire Hydrangeas are what I consider at their 
peak and prettiest right now. They follow the season starting
off white in early summer, turning pink at the peak of summer
and gradually going to a russet in the autumn. 

That's right around the time we've had half our heat waves, half our spells of humidity. The hottest days of summer are often right around that date. 

You start to notice the start of a journey toward autumn about now.   

Vermonts trees, forests and hillsides are still the royal green of summer, but a few of the leaves are looking tired or ragged. If you look closely, you see hints of red in the swamp maples.  

As I sat out in my yard last evening, I noticed a relative lack of birds compared to spring and early summer. We're starting to see the sun set a little earlier. 

July 21 this year turned out to be a little cooler than it has been lately, belying the reputation as the peak of summer.  The high temperature in Burlington Sunday was 79 degrees. That ended a streak of 19 consecutive days with high temperatures of 80 degrees or more. The streak was good enough to become the sixth longest set of consecutive 80s on record. The longest such streak was 29 days in 2018.

Chances are, the hottest temperature of this summer came early in the season. The toastiest we've gotten so far, at least as measured in Burlington, was 96 degrees on June 19.

We might be halfway through summer, but there's plenty of it left. Plenty of time for more downpours, sunny days, heat waves, you know the drill.

UP NEXT

As of today, Vermont's summer weather of 2024 is up to its old tricks. Like we've seen so often this summer, it's gotten humid and wet, with locally heavy downpours. That'll be our state of affairs through Thursday.  

As has been so often the case this summer, National
Weather Service radar is lit up with rain, with 
locally  heavy downpours in red. Image is
from around 6:40 a.m. today. 

Rainfall has been highly variable overnight and early this morning, as is typical of summer. The northern Adirondacks of New York have had enough downpours to trigger a local flood warning up there early today. 

Areas of heavy rain also showed up on radar across far northern Vermont, though I haven't seen any indication of a flood risk there. 

Meanwhile, Burlington had just 0.04 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. 

We'll need to watch out - once again - for instances of flash flooding over the next three days, with Thursday the likeliest day to produce trouble. If indeed we get any trouble. 

The risk of flash flooding is the usual harassment we've had all summer: There's a chance of isolated flood problems, but nothing widespread or super scary like on July 10-11. 

The rain we're getting this morning will tend to taper off as we head toward noon. In the afternoon, we'll see some more showers and thunderstorms erupt.  That's when an isolated, slow moving thunderstorm in one or two spots could cause some new local washouts or culvert problems. The chances of this happening today are quite low, but not zero.

The sticky weather that's returned will, um, stick around for a few more days. Nights will be stuffy, but at least days will only reach the low 80s, as clouds and showers will hold temperatures down a little. 

Wednesday will be sultry again with the usual hit and miss storms. Afternoon and evening are the most likely times for that, as usual.

We start to get some weak boundaries and cold fronts approaching and passing through Thursday, which will make even more showers and downpours and storms erupt in the humid air. That's why I'm eyeing Thursday as a potential flash flood day, again in a few isolated places. Most of us will be fine, but we'll need to keep an eye out. 

DRYING OUT?

Beyond that, there's good news and bad news. High pressure that originated in south central Canada will drift in from the west and northwest by Friday.  There's been record heat in central and western Canada, so the air with this one is warm. 

Friday and Saturday might well end up being warmer than earlier in the week. But the humidity will temporarily crash so we'll have a couple of fairly comfortable sleeping nights and some really decent beach days over the weekend.

Bonus: As it looks now, we might have at least four consecutive days of rain-free weather with this. 

This high pressure looks like it will want to strengthen overhead and also team up with the dreaded offshore Bermuda High. Early indications are this will set us up for another hot spell, with more 90 degree days possible starting Sunday or Monday.