Odd, Strong Storm To Whack Florida Saturday, Hit Us In Vermont By Monday

Just one of many depictions of an expected strong
storm in the eastern United States Monday morning.
The strength and position of this could change.
But it will slap Florida with severe weather this
weekend, and could cause strong winds and
heavy rain here in Vermont Monday. 

 Strong, non-tropical storms usually don't hit Florida. Sure, they have cold fronts, sometimes even winter time severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and floods. 

However, this one is basically a nor'easter that's way too far south.

The storm is developing in the Gulf of Mexico as we speak. I think if it were earlier in the season it might have been a subtropical storm.

But it's a regular old storm, and will have the same effects as a nasty summer or autumn tropical storm. 

I'm seeing an unusual amount of computer model disagreement as to where the storm will hit Florida as it comes off the Gulf of Mexico. 

Its eventual location will determine which parts of Florida see dangerous coastal flooding and waves, flooding, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Though all of Florida will see nasty weather from this, for now, the consensus seems to be the worst coastal flooding would be in central and northern Florida, and the best chance of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes would be across central parts of the state. The whole of Florida is at risk from flooding with rainfall amounts expected to easily pass three inches.

The Sunshine State isn't used to this type of storm in December. El Nino, which we have now, tends to make strong storms cross the southern part of the United States, which helps explain why Florida is about to get smacked so badly.

RACING NORTHWARD

After battering Florida, this strong storm is forecast to race northward through the eastern United States.

Remember how I said meteorologists aren't sure where the center of the storm will make landfall in Florida?  That makes them even more unsure of how far inland along the East Coast it will move as stampedes northward toward New England by Monday. 

I imagine the storm will very roughly follow Interstate 95 northward from Florida to New England.  

For us in Vermont, the storm will affect us, but nobody yet knows precisely how.    It could actually go by to our west, which would put us in very warm air, possibly high enough to break records.

It could go by to our east, too.  If it does, we'd still get rain, but it would be only in the 40s. 

You'd think if this storm went by to our east we'd squeeze a snowstorm out of it.  After all, that's what usually happens in Vermont when a nor'easter races through eastern New England.

In this case, though, it's looking like there would be really no cold air for the storm to work with. You'll notice it today and Sunday, and to a lesser extent tomorrow. High temperatures today and Sunday in Vermont will reach the 40s. A weak cold front will hold temperatures in the 30s to near 40 on Saturday. 

The fact that the track of this storm is so iffy, it's unclear what impacts we'll have here in Vermont. We know it will be a pretty intense storm. So there's the risk of strong, possibly damaging winds, especially along the west slopes of the Green Mountains Sunday night and Monday.

We'll also probably get another dose of fairly heavy rain, plus melting snow in the mountains to renew a flood threat on Monday.  

Those things are all just potential, certainly not cast in stone. You know how the forecast for the last storm we had kept shifting dramatically. Between now and Sunday, we'll have some big changes in predictions for this storm, too.

Since it will probably be a strong system, it's definitely a storm we'll need to keep our eyes on, 

Chilly Vermont Morning But Warmer Times Ahead. Storm Questions Remain

Just one of many projections for a potential large
East Coast storm this coming Monday. Expect huge
changes one way or another for the storm forecast.
Could give us heavy rain, could give us nothing at all.

 We pretty much had our coldest morning so far of the early winter this morning here in Vermont

But that's not exactly saying much.   

It was 17 degrees in Burlington, a mere five degrees colder than average for the date. For those keeping track, we missed tying the record low for the date by a full 28 degrees. Yeah, not even close.  

Over in Saranac Lake, New York, that perennial cold spot reached a goose egg 0 degrees. Again, no big deal for them.

I'm only mentioning this because it just seems that this fall and early winter, nights in particular have mostly been on the warm side. 

There have already been five days this month in Burlington that never got below freezing. And we might have a few more coming up.

It's amazing that the summit of Mount Mansfield has managed to pile up 39 inches of snow. At least for now. Pretty impressive considering they've had some thawing at the summit occasionally this month. 

Another surge of warm air is heading our way, too. After a day that will stay at or below freezing, readings should surge into the 40s tomorrow. It'll be just a wee bit cooler Saturday but still warmer than average, before we get back into the 40s Sunday.

If this long range forecast is accurate, pretty much 
the entire nation, including here in Vermont, will
have a warmer than normal Christmas week.

There's still some huge question marks about that weird storm expected to develop near Florida over the weekend, then head north.

The computer model trends bring it further west and north than previous runs, which would put Vermont in the precipitation zone Monday. 

But that might not hold. This far out, computer models tend do something that I call windshield wipering. In other words they go back and forth day to day.

"It's going to score a direct hit on us!. No, wait a minute, out to sea.  Or a close shave. Further west again! No, east! West! East!" You can picture the computer models arguing like that.  

I think we should just relax until Saturday. By then, we should have a better idea on how things play out. For now, just put in the back of your mind we might have some rain or snow Sunday night and Monday. Kind of a weekly thing around here lately. 

Despite some likely chilly air behind that Monday storm, the overall pattern favors warmer than normal temperatures for us and almost the entire rest of the Lower 48 through Christmas. 

Hot Times In The Arctic: Annual Report Card Shows Big Changes Affecting Entire World

The Arctic got at best a D- in NOAA's annual Arctic report
card that takes a look at how climate change is affecting
the top of the world. Remember, what goes on in the
Arctic does not stay in the Arctic .

 Most of the world has had a really hot year in this age of climate change. 

Relatively speaking, the Arctic was arguably the most out of whack, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's annual Arctic Report Card, which was released Tuesday. 

The main takeaway from this year's edition: The Arctic is warming almost four times faster than the world as a whole, and had their hottest summer since at least 1900,

According to NPR:

"'The Arctic is now more relevant to us that it has ever been before,' said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad. 'In many cases, what we're seeing is - by a few years - the kinds of impacts that we're going to see elsewhere in the country.'

Climate change in the Arctic doesn't just offer a view of the future. It also directly influences worldwide changes across ecosystems, from sea-level rise, to new weather patterns to altered wildlife migrations. 

As Spinrad put it,' what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic."

The report has plenty of examples of how warming in the Arctic is screwing with people who live near the upper reaches of the Earth, and everybody elsewhere. 

The Arctic had its hottest summer on record and its sixth warmest year on record. Despite the summer heat, the Arctic "only" had its sixth lowest sea ice extent on record.  That was because some pockets of the Arctic were relatively cool, like the East Siberian Sea and areas of ice near Alaska. That slowed the ice melt in the summer a little. 

Greenland lost 150 billion tons of ice. That's bad because Greenland is the second biggest source of global sea level rise. One mitigating factor became apparent this year. A warmer Arctic means a wetter Arctic. At least most of the time. That means it snowed more than usual in Greenland this year. The extra snow ensured that the loss of Greenland ice was less than the recent average. 

It's worth noting that the peak high point of Greenland's ice sheet, 10,000 feet above sea level, got above freezing this summer for only the fifth time on record. 

Worldwide commerce is being affected by a warming Arctic, or better or worse. As the Washington Post tells us:

"The Northwest Passage, which allows ships to pass between the Atlantic and Pacific archipelago, was relatively ice free by late August....The Northwest Passage has long been an object of fascination as a means to dramatically reduce shipping distances and costs, and especially since 2007, when dramatic melting first opened it up."

Shipping companies are really taking notice of this. Early in my lifetime, it was quite a laughable idea that the Northwest Passage would be a viable shipping route. How times change with climate change. 

Wildfires, of all things, are becoming increasingly common in the Arctic.  As I've already reported, most of Canada was seemingly on fire during 2023. That includes the far north of that nation.

Sure, as noted, the Arctic is by and large getting wetter, but the droughts in between the rains are also getting worse. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"More than 90 percent of the 11 million acres that burned across Canada through the end of October was in the Northwest Territories, according to the report. Data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service released Tuesday showed that Canada accounted for 23 percent of global wildfire carbon emissions this year."

Climate change is making Arctic salmon populations weird. That's important because that's the livelihood of many people in the Arctic. 

Says NPR: 

It'll be interesting, and probably alarming to see what happens in the next 12 months up in the Arctic. El Nino is helping to supercharge climate change, at least temporarily. 

Though I'm sure there will be record warmth up there this winter, it won't matter too much quite yet because it will still be too cold for appreciable warming.

But a warm winter would make less ice for than normal, setting the stage for even lower sea ice extent next summer. Greenland remains a wildcard. I wonder if huge heat waves - at least by their standards - will cause even greater ice loss than in recent years. 

Remember the quote cited above: What goes on the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. It's part of the reason we in Vermont choked on wildfire smoke last summer. Gawd knows what a hot Arctic will bring us next year. 

Video: Sunday/Monday Storm Not Quite As Predicted, But Still Had Its Dark Season Beauty

Aftermath of early week storm in St. Albans, Vermont.
I made a video, shown in this post of the storm from
start to finish. Dark December gloom to bright
snow/sun. 

 As I previously reported, the storm early this week did not have the oomph some forecasters had expected.  

But it was beautiful in its own way.

Things went from dark to rainy to winter wonderland, at least here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Video at the bottom of the post shows how the landscape changed in the two days of the storm, and the day after.

First half of the video was dark and rainy Sunday. Not a great day for outdoor stuff, but it did have its own murky, quiet beauty as the rain fell and dark clouds hung overhead on a brief December day.

Monday, we woke up to snow, which continued much of the day. The snow certainly brightened the surrounding. Wet snow clung to every single little twig. Luckily, at least in my area, the snow fell short of causing much damage to my trees.

Day after the storm featured a bright and sunny interval. It was all too brief, but it was a stunning display of early winter gorgeousness.

Anyway, enjoy the video below. Click on this link to watch, or if you see the image below, click on that to watch. The vid is a nice excursion through changeable Vermont weather. 

Not Done With The Snow Showers Just Yet. Questions About A Future Storm?

A snowy, bright scene during a brief interval of blue skies
and sunshine Tuesday.  Despite snow showers this morning
and chilly temperatures through tomorrow, an overall
warm pattern means we might not actually have
a white Christmas this year. 

 As expected, snow showers buzzed through parts of Vermont last night, laying down at most an inch of snow, with most places just getting a dusting. 

Roads got a little slick, again, as expected, so there were some iffy patches.

If you're heading to work this morning, you might run into a little more of that. Roads aren't all that bad, really, this Wednesday morning, but we're not done with the snow showers.

Patchy snow showers, some of them moderately heavy, were moving toward northwestern Vermont as of 7:45 a.m. this morning. They could reduce visibility and quickly turn roads icy this morning. 

(By 8 a.m. it was looking pretty ominous, snow wise, just to the west of my perch in St. Albans, Vermont).

The snow showers might continue to early afternoon before tapering off.  Accumulations will be an inch or less, except possibly a little more in the mountains. Especially the Adirondacks and maybe far northern Green Mountains. 

These snow patches and bursts are associated with a series of what are essentially little cold fronts coming through. It's mild this morning, with temperatures near the freezing mark.  Instead of rising, temperatures will hold steady or slowly fall through the day. Northwest winds will add to the chill.

Again, no big deal for December, but the snow showers, the visibility issues and the icy patches on the roads are all worth taking into consideration. 

Aside from seasonal temperatures today and tomorrow, the overall pattern for us and pretty much the entire Lower 48 is mild conditions. Possibly lasting through Christmas. 

That makes the prospect of a white Christmas iffy in many Vermont locations, despite snow on the ground in many spots now. 

Forecasters are looking at a weird, strong storm that will come out of the Gulf of Mexico and hit Florida and maybe other areas of the Southeast with heavy rain, high winds and severe thunderstorms by Saturday. There's a chance it could move up the coast and give us some bad weather early next week.

Early bets are that it might mostly miss us here in Vermont. Some computer models hit us with heavy rain and possibly snow, but many other runs of the models take the storm a little too far east to bother us too much. 

There's a lot of  time for changes to the forecast.  Once we get toward the weekend, we'll start paying more attention to that system to see if it will affect us. Until then, expect some relatively mellow Vermont weather with near and above normal temperatures. 

Heads Up: Gusty, Heavy Snow Showers Possible In Vermont This Evening; Few Issues Wednesday, Too

The sun came out to reveal something of a winter 
wonderland in St. Albans, Vermont today, but an 
approaching band of snow showers could interfere
with motorists on the roads later this evening. 

 A word of caution if you're going to be out on the Vermont roads this evening.

There's a good chance some gusty, rather heavy snow showers will pass through. They could be intense enough to almost (but not quite) qualify as snow squalls. They'll sharply reducing visibility and make in roads instantly slick.  

Accumulating snow won't really be the problem.  The snow showers won't last especially long in any one place. Expect an inch or less of new snow with this harassing band of bad weather. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon said the timing of this band of snow showers is such that it will be crossing northern New York at around 5 p.m; entering northwestern Vermont roughly around of 7 p.m. and be very approximately on a Newport to Middlebury line by 9 p.m. 

Judging from radar trends, those snow showers might arrive a little bit earlier than the time line I've just outline. Skies at sunset here in St. Albans took on a vaguely threatening mood. 

It was a little above freezing today across almost all of Vermont. The expected snow showers will also drop temperatures, so water on roads will probably freeze as these snow showers move through. 

So, you'll want to be a little careful as you drive around tonight. 

After the possibly heavier snow showers pass through,  snow showers will probably continue off and on through the night and into Wednesday morning. Most of us in northern and central Vermont will at least see some snowflakes in the air well into the day tomorrow. A few lucky devils will once again see some briefly moderately heavy snow showers.

Those might affect both visibility and the conditions of roads as you drive to work Wednesday morning. 

Once again, accumulations will be modest. Less than an inch for almost everybody. Total snowfall up at the ski areas and summits in central and northern Vermont could go to two or three inches between now and Wednesday afternoon.

Not a big deal, but it's a bit of frosting for winter sports enthusiasts. 

This spell of snow showers isn't anything unusual for a Vermont December, but it's still worth paying a little bit of attention to if you're driving anywhere tonight or tomorrow.

Nation's November Was Warm And Dry, Many States Heading Toward Record Warmest Year

Once we start getting into mid-month, climate figures for the previous month start trickling in. Friday, we learned the United States had its 19th warmest and 12th driest November out of the past 128 years.

November was a warm month in a warm year in the 
United States. States colored in orange were warmer
than normal, states with no shading were pretty
close to average,

Most of the western and central United States was warmer than average, with six states scoring among the top 20 warmest Novembers in the past century and a quarter or so.  

The eastern United States was a little on the cool side, but not by much. Vermont and Massachusetts tied for the chilliest, at least relative to the long term average. But it wasn't that cold.  Both states had their 47th coldest November out of the past 128 years.

Here's one more way to look at the warmth of November in the United States: Weather stations across the U.S,. reported 1248 daily record highs during the month compare to just 658 record lows. (There are always at least some record lows. Climate change hasn't rid the world of cold snaps just yet).

Despite the slight nippiness of November in the eastern U.S., many states had one of their warmest meteorological autumns on record. Meteorological autumn runs from September 1 through November 30. For the Lower 48, it was the fourth warmest autumn out of the past 128 years. 

Nineteen states, including Vermont, had one of their top 10 warmest autumn on record. (Vermont ranked sixth warmest).

Almost always in any given month, parts of the Lower 48 are dry, other parts are wet.  November, 2023 was an exception. Every state except Florida was dry. And the Florida wetness was due mostly to an extreme storm on November 16 that dumped more than a foot of rain on parts of South Florida. 

The Midwest was especially dry. Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky each had one of their top 10 driest Novembers on record. 

Going back to temperature info, there's only one month of data left for 2023 and the United States is headed toward a very warm year. 

Thirty-one states have had the warmest January-November period this year. With December looking like it will turn out to be near average or warmer than average, most, perhaps all of those states will have one of their top ten warmest years on record. Vermont is among those states. 

With El Nino continuing to blare on and climate change unabated, 2023 looks like it will be globally the world's hottest year on record. And 2024 looks even hotter. I'll have updated global November data within a few days