Saturday Evening Henri Update: Southern Vermont/Hudson Valley/Southwest New England Big Flood Threat

Ragged Hurricane Henri continued its march northward Saturday off the East Coast, still ready to batter Long Island, parts of New York and the southwestern half of New England with dangerous storm surges, damaging winds and potentially horrible flash floods.

The expected track of Henri has shifted a wee bit

to the east, but the overall effects will still be the 

same. Bad storm surge, high winds on Long

Island, Connecticut. Serious flash flooding possible

in southern New York, southwestern New England.

Far southern Vermont in play for possible severe

flash flooding

The projected track of Henri has shifted a tiny bit back to the east from its most western proposed track early this morning. But the shifts aren't enough to really change the forecast.  

Be prepared in some areas for a very rough Sunday and or Monday.

There's still some disagreement among the forecast models as to where the heaviest rain will set up. Connecticut, Long Island, the Catskills and the lower Hudson Valley still seem like the most likely targets for dangerous flooding.

However, western and central Massachusetts, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire are still definitely in play.

Here in Vermont, I'm most worried about the eastern slopes of the southernmost Green Mountains. East winds associated with Henri will force its richly wet air up the slopes, which could release particularly torrential downpours. 

In those areas, small streams and creeks, and other bigger waterways like the North Branch of the Deerfield River, Whetstone Brook, the West River and Saxtons River could really cause trouble. Potentially trouble not seen since the dark days of Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

That's not guaranteed yet, but just to be on the safe side, if you live in flood prone areas of southern Vermont, I'd get ready.  Couldn't hurt to move some stuff to higher ground, and certainly have a plan to escape. 

Flash flood watches are in effect for Vermont's southernmost two counties. There could be three to six inches of rain with this, with localized areas up to 10 inches, though I think and hope and pray the 10 inches might be a little south of Vermont.  

If a bad flood does come, it will come fast. It'll be a classic dangerous flash flood if it does happen.

Unlike Tropical Storm Irene, it's still looking like parts of Vermont will be spared. Forecasts are still insisting on not all that much rain in northern Vermont, so flooding is unlikely up there. Still, forecasts can change, and there's still a chance of enough rain to prompt flash flood watches in central Vermont. Stay tuned! 

It was brutally hot and humid, especially across the north today, with heat indexes near 100 in the Champlain Valley. It will be almost as bad tomorrow. The possibility of extra cloud cover will keep heat indexes just a little lower, but it will still be too nasty to work outdoors tomorrow.

This is just a brief update. I'll have lots of additional details Sunday morning

Saturday Morning Henri Update: Southwestern New England, Long Island, Hudson Valley Major Target

Tropical Storm Henri was starting to look a little

more symmetrical off the coast of North Carolina this

morning, setting the stage for a brief period of

intensification into a hurricane today.

 As we awoke this steamy Saturday morning, Tropical Storm Henri was still struggling to get its act together off the southeastern United States coast.   

Even if it's slow to turn into a hurricane, Henri still means big trouble for parts of southern New England and New York.  

There will be impacts from Henri in Vermont - pretty much a flood risk - but there are still questions as to how bad and exactly where that flooding might be in the Green Mountain State.

By the way, there are some other hazards in Vermont to think about before Henri makes landfall. I"ll get to those after we get through our Henri walk through. 

Forecasts continue to show Henri as an odd duck. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes have throughout history hit New England in  August so that's not weird. The expected northwestward bend in the track before landfall, taking Henri toward Long Island and Connecticut is weird.

Henri's expected very forward slow motion through New England and the Hudson Valley is unprecedented from what I can tell.  That track is not set in stone, either.  Henri could go a little west of that predicted path, or somewhat more likely, a little east of that path. 

This weirdness could reduce the area battered by high winds, but worsen the inevitable flooding from the storm. 

Long Island and Connecticut, and probably Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are in the most danger from storm surges and wind damage. I'm sure there will be massive power outages, tree damage and some structural damage there.  Henri is expected to come ashore Sunday afternoon as either a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph, or a strong tropical storm with wind speeds just under that.

Storm surge flooding along Long Island beaches will be pretty intense with this. People on Long Island, in Connecticut, Rhode Island and nearby areas should be finish gathering supplies, food and water today to prepare themselves for long power outages. Note these outages will happen amid oppressive humidity next week, so that in itself will be a danger. 

Tropical storms and hurricane winds almost always rapidly weaken after they come ashore, and Henri will be no exception in that regard. As Henri slowly makes its way north - current forecasts have it crawling to about Albany, New York early Monday morning - winds will die out.  

By the time Henri starts to affect southern Vermont, there might be some gusty winds, maybe a few power outages and trees down, but there probably won't be horrible wind damage in Vermont.  

Torrential rains tend to linger much longer with decaying tropical storms, and this will happen with Henri.   This is where Henri's slow forward motion gets dangerous. The heavy rain will linger over Connecticut, southern New York, western Massachusetts and quite possibly southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire for a long time.

That could cause catastrophic flooding.  At this point, that seems most likely in Long Island, Connecticut and New York's Hudson Valley and Catskills. 

Far southern Vermont is on the edge of this torrential rain prediction.  It's possible, with its western track, a bit of dry air can get pulled into the dying circulation of Henri from the east, slightly reducing rainfall. But don't count on that!  I'm still definitely worried about flash flooding in southern Vermont.

That's in part because the forecasting models haven't settled on the focus for the heaviest rain.  Some forecast the worst of it to be in the Catskills. Others target Connecticut, the Hudson Valley and Massachusetts. Others take the heaviest rain through Connecticut, central Massachusetts, New Hampshire and southern Vermont. 

Anybody in the southern two thirds of New England should monitor flood forecasts through tomorrow night. 

The worst of the rains there would come Sunday night and Monday morning.  

Forecasts tracks of Henri using various

forecasting models. The general idea of

what's going to happen are there, but

you can see some variation.  A slight

difference in Henri's track could have a big

impact on how dangerous the storm is

in any given location. 

The remains of Henri are still forecast to take a sharp right turn through central New England and on into the Gulf of Maine.  If this goes as expected, that's great for most of central and northern Vermont.  That means there wouldn't be enough rain to raise a flood threat.

The usual caveats apply:  There WILL be shifts in the expected track, strength and orientation of Henri.  That means forecasts for the heaviest rain, the strongest winds and the timing of the storm will shift, too.

That means keep a heads up with forecasts, especially those of you in southern Vermont who are at most risk of flooding with this. 

Before we get hit with Henri, we have those other hazards that I mentioned to consider. 

It's wicked humid out there, and with expected high temperatures into the upper 80s today, there's a heat advisory up for Vermont's Champlain Valley.  The heat index will be in the mid-90s, so take it super easy out there.

Another thing to look out for are hit and miss showers and thunderstorms.  They won't be severe, but a few could contain really torrential downpours.  Since we're in bizarro world in the weather department, these storms won't come from the west as usual, but from the east or southeast. 

So contrary to what we usually experience, if you see dark clouds to the west, you're probably OK, but if there's threatening skies to the east or southeast, take cover. 

Friday Evening Henri Update: Still Weird, Still Uncertain

Henri continuing to organize off the southeast US 
coast Friday afternoon. It remains a big threat 
for New England. 

Henri, as of 5 p.m. today, continues to menace New England.  Vermont remains in the danger zone, especially for the risk of inland flooding. 

Especially in southern Vermont.

The late afternoon updates keep things nearly the same as this morning, though the forecast track keeps nudging toward the west. 

Of course, where Henri lands and where it goes after it makes landfall has a huge impact on what will happen in Vermont.

The more westward track is potential bad news for us here in Vermont.  Henri could come ashore as far left as near New York City or even northern New Jersey. 

The consensus is for it to come ashore around Connecticut, and move as far northwest as Albany, New York before taking a sharp right hand turn toward Maine. 

That track, and Henri's expected slow forward pace, makes me pretty worried about this storm. The latest official National Hurricane Center storm track has Henri over the Connecticut/Massachusetts border at around 2 a.m. Monday, and only moves it to about Brattleboro by 2 p.m. Monday. That's a lot of time to dump a lot of rain.

Do note that the forecast track WILL change, but you get the idea. This is potentially horrible for southwestern New England.  

 Its winds would probably diminish quickly, but the fact that it won't get out of New England or even New York any time fast means torrential downpours would linger longer than in a "normal" tropical storm.

That could mean someone - I don't know who - could receive incredible amounts of rain on saturated ground. Not to scare anyone, but some forecasts call for six or more inches of rain somewhere in southern New England, southern New York or even southern Vermont. 

That would unleash a much worse than usual flood on wherever it hits.  For what it's worth, flood forecasts as of late this afternoon put the worst of it in Connecticut and western Massachusetts, but the risk does extend into the southeastern third of Vermont. At least for now.

As noted above, forecasts are likely to change, but I don't know if it will get better or get worse. 

Northern Vermont still looks to escape the worst of it, but questions still remain as to where the heaviest rain will fall. 

This is just a quick Friday evening update. I'll  have more details and more updates tomorrow morning. 

Some Climate Change Thoughts As We Await Henri

The prospect of Henri and its weirdness has me thinking
more of the consequence of climate change and how it 
can terrorize us. This is a lovely, old Vermont house
destroyed by Tropical Storm Irene in 2011,

This weird global summer of scarey weather surely makes one worry more about climate change.

Not all the weather events we've endured this year can be directly tied to climate change, but some of them can. 

The prospect of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Henri in New England is one of those cases where I suspect a climate change link, but it's too complicated for little ole me to prove.

But hear me out.  One predicted consequence of climate change has been the idea of hurricanes and tropical storms slowing down or stalling over one area, intensifying their destructive power.

After all, hurricane force winds or torrential rain will cause much more damage if those conditions last for 12 or 24 hours instead of three or four hours. 

We've seen these stalls happen with Hurricane Harvey in Texas back in 2017, and that resulted in probably one of the most catastrophic floods in U.S. history around Houston, Texas.

In 2019, powerful Category 5 Hurricane Dorian stalled over parts of the Bahamas, inflicting total destruction on some islands.  It's very weird for a hurricane that strong to stall.  Their forward motion might be slow, but they do tend to make progress.

Though stalling hurricanes are still somewhat a matter of debate among climate scientists, it does seem to be a thing as the world warms. 

As I mentioned in this morning's post, the forward speed of tropical storms in New England tends to be pretty fast. It seems most of them go blast northward here at around 30 mph or more. The forward speed of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 was more than 50 mph.

Current forecasts have Henri moving inland into New England at a forward speed of less than 4 mph. That is just insanely slow for this time of year. Since Henri would linger for a long time in the cold North, its winds might diminish pretty quickly, but its torrential rains would continue much longer than a "normal" New England tropical storm. 

I worry greatly about catastrophic flooding in New England from Henri.

Speaking of flooding and rain, I want to pivot over to Greenland for a minute. 

The middle and highest point of the Greenland ice cap is insanely cold.  It's almost always below zero there.  Usually way, way below zero.

But on August 14, at a 10,551 foot elevation at the highest poiny of Greenland's ice cap, it rained.  That's the first time rain has ever been observed there. If any precipitation falls from the sky at that station, it's snow. Until now.

It almost never gets above freezing at this location.  Temperatures above 32 degrees have only been noted there in recent history this year, and in 2019, 2012 and 1995. But until now, they never had rain, as far as anybody knows

Also, by mid-August, winter usually is arriving in the middle of the Greenland ice sheet. The August 14 rare thaw is the latest above freezing temperature on record at that weather station. 

I tied this in with the word "flooding" because if more ice melts off Greenland yearly than accumulates in their long winter, global sea levels rise. Lately the melt has been exceeding the ice accumulation, because of global warming. 

Meanwhile, as previously reported, the world had its hottest month on record in July, places too great in number to count hit all time record highs, the West, Siberia and other places are burning, the normal clean air of Vermont keeps getting clouded by smoke from out west and there have been ridiculous floods have hit Germany, Japan, Turkey and other places.

Here in Vermont, the weather this summer hasn't been quite as destructive, at least so far, but still damaging. And incredibly confounding.  Henri has just made my unsettled state over the pace of climate change even worse.

Henri Menaces New England After As Fred's Rains Leave

Tropical Storm Henri off the Southeast coast this morning
Strong upper level winds from the north are hindering
development but those winds are forecast to slacken
off and Henri is expected to become a hurricane
as it heads toward New England over the weekend.

What a strange, tropical time we're having in New England!

The remains of Tropical Storm Fred crossed southern Vermont and meandered toward Maine overnight. 

And now, Tropical Storm Henri is creating an even bigger threat to the region. While all that is going on, the region's weather and weather patterns are typical of Florida, not New England.  

I'll do a quick Fred recap before getting into the real, very important news, which is Henri. 

Fred's remains unleashed almost all of its havoc on southern New England.  A patch of intense rains created serious flash flooding from Hartford to Worcester and on into the Boston area. Four cars were completely submerged beneath an underpass in Worcester and four people had to be rescued.

This heavy rain is not good, soaking the ground before Henri's torrential rains get there. Henri could cause one helluva flood in southern New England. 

This complex of storms rotated, with three confirmed tornado touchdowns in New Jersey, at least one possible touchdown in southern New York, maybe one in Connecticut. Tornado warnings flew in the Boston suburbs too.

Here in Vermont, Fred in my view was perfect. Torrential storms failed to materialize in soggy southern Vermont, so there were no reports of significant issues there, despite flash flood watches that had been in effect. 

Fred's rains stubbornly hung on in far northern Vermont, which actually still needs the precipitation (As of Thursday, before the rains hit, the three Vermont counties closest to the Canadian border were still in moderate drought.  

Burlington received a respectable 0.9 inches of rain from Ex-Fred.  My unofficial rain gauge in St. Alban collected 0.75 inch.  The soaking rains Thursday probably put another dent in the drought, so that's good. But trouble looms south of us. Here's the real news:

HENRI MENACES

What a weird situation Tropical Storm Henri is!  It's lurking off the East Coast, and was about 330 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina with top winds of about 65 mph early this morning. 

That's not at all an odd place for a tropical storm or hurricane to be this time of year, but Henri's future behavior is anything but typical. 

On those rare occasions when a hurricane menaces New England, the storm is on it's typical recurvature process near the end of its life cycle. 

In the Atlantic, troughs of low pressure often pick up a hurricane and make it move north, then northeast up to the North Atlantic to die. Most of the time, this process makes a hurricane miss the East Coast as they move north out into the open waters.

Sometimes, these hurricanes move right up the East Coast, with damaging, sometimes historic, disastrous effects. When they do this, they are moving at a fast forward speed, with a predictable path toward the Northeast.

Henri is different.

There is that trough of low pressure in the East that will pick Henri up and move it northward. That part is pretty normal. But a ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada is building.  That will nudge Henri westward and it will move due north or even northwest toward New England instead of out to sea.

On top of that, that Canadian ridge will slow Henri down near New England, which is opposite of what normally happens.   

Just some of the forecasts tracks for Henri. As you can
see, there's a lot of questions on where it comes
ashore in or near New England Sunday.

This makes forecasting this thing even more of a nightmare and more of a high stakes game than you can imagine for meteorologists. 

After all, dangerous storm surges, high winds and flooding rains are all in play for southern New England and Long Island with this thing. You want to get the forecast right, as lives depend on it. 

Exactly where the worst of it hits is a real question for sure. 

Upper level winds have so far kept Henri from strengthening enough for to become a hurricane. Those upper level winds will relax today as Henri roams over the toasty Gulf Stream, so it will strengthen.

Forecasting the future strength of tropical systems is very tricky.  If it strengthens a lot, it will of course be a more powerful storm when it gets to New England. If Henri sputters, it will still be a problem by the time it gets here, but it will be somewhat of a more manageable problem.

Here's another tricky part: The waters closer to New England are too cold to sustain a hurricane's strength.  So it will probably start to weaken as it approaches the coast.  If its forward motion is slower than normal, which is likely, it will have more time to weaken over water.

BUT, the ocean water south of New England is warmer than normal, which could slow the weakening a bit. And if Henri gets really strong enough, which seems kinda likely, it will be the first hurricane to make landfall in New England since Hurricane Bob in 1991. (Devastating Irene was a tropical storm by the time in reached New England in 2011).

The next question is where will Henri land?

For the record, there is currently a hurricane watch in effect in Long Island, New York and along the southern New England coast through Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts south of Boston including Cape Cod. Of course, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Block Island are also under that hurricane watch.

Anything at or just east of landfall will get hurricane force winds and worse, a nasty storm surge. Which will be made nastier by astronomically high tides due to a full moon.  Areas just west of Henri will get dangerous, flooding rains. (That's what happened to Vermont with Irene in 2011 - we were just west of its track and got the heaviest rains).

Complicating things further, Henri is forecast to take a sharp right turn beneath that Canadian ridge once the storm gets to New England.  How far inland will Henri be before the sharp right turn hits?  That has implications for what effects we here in northern New England get

VERMONT IMPACTS

The short answer to the question, how will Henri affect Vermont is, "Who knows?" But we can start taking stabs at this answer.

Northern areas at this point don't appear to have much to worry about.  If that right turn happens as expected, the further north in Vermont you go, the more likely you are to be a bystander to Henri.  

There are a few models that bring Henri close enough to affect virtually all of Vermont.  It should also be noted that Henri's "cone of uncertainty" from the National Hurricane Center includes virtually all of Vermont.  Anything within that "cone of uncertainty" includes places where meteorologist think a tropical system might go, given forecast errors.

All that means that the risk from Henri is lower in northern Vermont than places further south, but still real. People in northern Vermont should keep an eye on forecasts, because you never know if a tropical system does something weird and unexpected. 

Henri is weird enough to begin with, after all.  

For southern Vermont, the best case scenario would be for Henri to come ashore in far eastern New England, then immediately take that sharp right turn. If that were to happen, the storm would be no biggie for folks in far southern Vermont. 

Worst case scenario is if Henri came ashore much further west, say in western Long Island, and more worrisomely delayed its sharp right turn a bit, southern Vermont would be in play for some very heavy rain and possibly serious flooding.  Strong winds would be an issue in some spots in the southern tip of Vermont, too.

Then there are a bunch of in between scenarios.  Anyone in southern Vermont should be prepared for some impacts from Henri to be on the safe side.  

Any impacts of Henri in Vermont, if they do occur would be mostly on Sunday and Sunday night.  Expect forecasts to shift with Henri here in Vermont and the Northeast in general as its unpredictable path becomes better understood by meteorologists as the storm approaches.

Here's what to do today regarding Henri:

-- If you're planning a trip to the New England coast this weekend, cancel it. 

-- If you're already vacationing there, leave today. No use messing with a storm like that and you'll just be more people, in addition to the locals that might end up needing help. The fewer people around down there, the better.

--- If you live in southern Vermont, sit tight but listen for forecast updates on Henri.  If you live in a flood prone area, have a plan on what to do if there's a flood or flood warning

-- If you live in central or northern Vermont, carry on with what you were doing, but listen for forecast updates in case Henri ends up having effects on that part of the state after all. 

Before the storm hits, expect typical Florida weather in Vermont today and Saturday. Anyone who steps outside will know right away it's damn tropical out there. Lingering fog and drizzle should lift this morning into partly cloudy skies.  Chances for showers are quite low, but a few might pop up in the humid air. 

On Saturday, there will be a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms. They will still be hit and miss, but more numerous than today. 

Here's another odd twist. As we know, summer thunderstorms generally go west to east in Vermont. In Florida in the summer, they usually go east to west, coming ashore on the Atlantic side of the peninsula. Tomorrow, in Vermont, any showers and storms that do get going will probably move generally east to west, just like Florida. 

Fred Soaks Vermont Today, Threatens Flooding. Then What Will Henri Do?

UPDATE EARLY AFTERNOON

As the first rain bands from former Tropical Storm Fred

moved into St. Albans, the sun rising in the sky to the 

northeast shined into the rain, causing an 

otherworldly orange glow.   While flooding is unlikely

in St. Albans from Ex-Fred, there is a risk of flash

flooding in the southern two thirds of Vermont today.

Ex-Fred has so far behaved pretty well in Vermont, but we're not necessarily out of the woods yet More on that in a sec.

The storm has NOT been friendly in southern New England and southern New York. It looks like there might have been a couple tornadoes in the Hudson Valley or Catskills, New Jersey and/or Connecticut.

There was also a tornado warning for awhile early this afternoon in some of the North Shore communities near Boston, places like Revere, Lynn, Nahant, Swampscott. Not sure if one touched down or not there.

Flash flooding certainly walloped parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Streets were badly flooded around Hartford.  Cars were in water up to their rooftops in at least one road in Worcester, Massachusetts. There's quite a few reports of roads closed, flooded basements and some water rescues in southern New England. 

Some showers will get going in southern and central Vermont now that the steady rain has largely passed. The question now is will those showers be torrential enough to cause local flash floods, or will they be pretty benign. 

As of 1 p.m., the flash flood watch had been lifted for far southern Vermont, but no yet for Rutland and Windsor counties, and in central Vermont.  That's being assessed as I write this. The fact that National Weather Service radar has been down for the past couple of hours is unfortunate and unhelpful.

Congress really needs to appropriate funds to the National Weather Service to drag their technology out of the stone age and into the 21st century. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 Rain started in most of Vermont before dawn, as the remains of Tropical Storm Fred continue to create flooding and storms across the Northeast.  

After spinning up some severe storms and floods to our south in the Mid-Atlantic states, it's New England's turn today.

The biggest zone of worry today will be in central New York, where a few flood warnings are already in effect, then on through central and southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, maybe southern Maine and northern Massachusetts.

Northern Vermont and New York are getting decent rains this morning, but I think things will be fairly well behaved along and north of Route 2. 

The rain moving into these areas from the northern Adirondacks seemed to be intensifying a little as it moved toward Vermont before dawn, but it doesn't look like there will be much of a flood threat.

The heaviest rain band in this batch was just approaching Burlington as of 8:30 this morning. 

It's been drier up north, and the rain in the north is more of a steady drenching, not the torrential downpours that can set up flash flooding.  There might be some minor urban flooding, ponding of water on roads, and maybe a little erosion on steep gravel roads and driveways, but it won't be a huge deal.

Besides, far northern Vermont could still use more rain, so this is good.  My hot take: A little more rain than originally expected up north, but don't worry too much about it. 

Further south, it's looking decidedly less good.  We're not talking Irene-scale destruction, but I am worried areas of flash flooding that could develop during the day.  Ex-Fred has a feeder band coming in from the southeast, bringing tropical moisture northwestward toward central New England.

The moisture will be forced to rise as it hits the higher elevations of western Massachusetts, and southern parts of Vermont and New Hampshire. This wet air has already caused some fairly substantial flash flooding in parts of Connecticut.

The threat with this is local torrential downpours with this feeder band.  Former tropical systems tend to be really efficient rain makers, so this could be a real threat.

I'd say the highest threat of any flash flooding would be especially on south and east facing slopes of the southern Green Mountains. 

After an initial burst of rain this morning, some predictions indicate clouds might thin for a bit over southern Vermont. That would help trigger thunderstorms. Given the very humid air brought north by Ex-Fred, the rain could be absolutely torrential with these, adding to the risk of local flash floods.

If the heaviest rain is able to work its way into Addison County and maybe Orange County, there could be some real flooding worries there, too. That's because a band of soaking rain set up there yesterday morning.  It's already soggy, so if a lot of rain falls, the water will rise pretty readily. 

I'm already seeing some flash flood warnings pop up in the western Adirondacks, so we'll need to keep an eye on whether that heavy rain makes it to central Vermont.

If your area goes under a flash flood warning, take it VERY seriously.  Move to higher ground if you're in a flood prone spot. Don't drive through water or debris on roads. You won't know until it's too late whether the road is washed out. Also, it takes surprisingly little water to sweep a car away.

If you don't believe my story about flash floods being dangerous, consider this:  When Fred moved through the mountains of North Carolina the other day, walls of water and mud swept down creek beds and hollows and into towns. At this point, 35 people are unaccounted for. 

Things are pretty grim in North Carolina.

Ex-Fred's rains seem to be moving a little faster than at least I expected, so I think the worst of the rain will be over by mid to late afternoon. That will just leave us stuck in the humid air for a few more days. 

And.....we need to watch another tropical system

HENRI AND NEW ENGLAND

Since we're focusing on Ex-Fred, I won't get into the next system that much today.  However, Tropical Storm Henri is lurking southwest of Bermuda.  It was just shy of hurricane status this morning, with top winds of 70 mph.

It is currently forecast to grow into a hurricane, and could threaten New England Sunday or Monday.

Upper level winds right now are hindering Henri's development. If that continues, chances are greater that the storm will pass east of New England, causing relatively minor problems.

If Henri blows up bigger, though, it could smack right into southeastern New England. Right now,  it seems the chances of the smacking into New England scenario is not as great as a close miss. But there's still a decent chance, so let's keep our eye out! More details coming on Henri tomorrow in this space. 

Remains Of Fred Could Flood Northeast U.S. Including Parts Of Vermont

Flash flooding is a good bet in the red area of the 
map today.  Yellow areas have a slight risk, and
green areas a marginal risk. Note the slight 
risk edging into Vermont. That flood risk
will continue well into tomorrow in 
southern parts of the Green Mountain State

UPDATE: Flash flood watch in Vermont for because of Ex-Fred has been extended north to roughly a Ferrisburgh -Montpelier - Wells River line.

It looks like pretty heavy rain will fall as far north as Route 2, so that raises the flood risk.,  One to three inches of rain is forecast in the newly extended flash flood watch area.

The watch is in effect Thursday morning to Friday morning. 

I'm a little bit extra worried about Addison County,  northern Rutland County and Orange County.  A band of heavy rain has been moving through that area all morning.

There could even be some minor flooding in this zone through early afternoon when the rain band is expected to weaken

That band has really super saturated the ground there, priming the pump for some potential flash flooding there from Ex-Fred tomorrow..  We'll keep an eye on it.   

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The remains of Tropical Storm Fred, as expected, caused a lot of problems as it rolled northeastward through the southern Appalachian chain on Tuesday.  

This storm will continue to cause flooding issues Do note southern Vermont is once again in the flood risk zone because of ex-Fred.

There were no fewer than 13 tornadoes in the Carolinas and Georgia spun up by Fred on Tuesday.   Flash flooding struck the mountain  near the North Carolina/Tennessee border.  

Though details were still sketchy as of this Wednesday morning, there are reports of homes either swept away or damaged by extensive flooding in this area. 

The center of what was Fred was over West Virginia early this morning, and flash flooding was rushing down the steep slopes of West Virginia's mountains this morning. 

The remains of Fred will continue to bring tons of tropical moisture and dump it as torrential downpours today in Pennsylvania and southwestern and central New York. There's even the risk of a few more spin up tornadoes in Pennsylvania and Maryland today, we'll see. 

Today, that Fred-related wet air will focus on Pennsylvania and New York today, where plenty of flash flooding is expected today on already sodden ground.  Then move into southern and central New England tonight, which brings us to what's going to happen in Vermont

VERMONT IMPACTS

Humid air out ahead of Former Fred flooded into Vermont Tuesday causing lots of showers to break out, but none of them were particularly heavy.  

A torrential rain band that caused flash flooding in western New York was continuing to feed into central Vermont this morning in a weaker fashion.  There's no flooding there today, but rainfall has been heavier in that zone.  I'm sure a few spots halfway between Route 4 and Route 2 picked up a half inch or more of rain. There's probably been an inch of rain in a few spots in western Addison County.

The showery state of affairs is continuing this morning, though the showers might temporarily wane somewhat by this afternoon.  Then we start to deal with Ex-Fred.

Forecasting the evolution of former tropical storms that are well inland can be tricky, as a small shift in the expected path could make a big difference. 

But at this point it looks like Ex-Fred will move through central New England late tonight and Thursday, possibly as far north as the southern borders of Vermont and New Hampshire. 

This would spread heavier rain through the southern half of Vermont, and maybe up the Connecticut River Valley toward St. Johnsbury as well. 

Current forecasts call for more than two inches of rain in southern Vermont.  Perhaps much more if things line up correctly.  That would set this part of Vermont up for the third flash flood of the summer. Bennington and Windham counties are already under flash flood watches, given the possibility of up to four inches of rain there. 

Soils down there are still awfully wet, so it wouldn't take all that much precipitation to set off some flooding. 

The amount of rain from Ex-Fred would diminish quite a bit as soon as you get north of Route 2.  That's the current prog, anyway.  Best guess is an inch or a little more of rain south of a Burlington to Newport line.  The far northwest corner of Vermont would see a half inch or even less.

There's always the chance that the heavier rain could work itself further north, which would actually be OK.  Far northern Vermont could still use more rain, though drought conditions have eased a little there. 

This will already be the second time this year that a former tropical system affected Vermont.  Former Hurricane Elsa dumped heavy rain on southeast Vermont in early July, causing some spotty flooding.

There is a low, but not-zero possibility another tropical system might affect Vermont in the near future.  Tropical Storm Henri.  It's buzzing around Bermuda and expected to become a hurricane.  Forecasts have been calling for Henri to turn toward the northeast eventually and pass safely off the New England coast.

However, some forecasts build a ridge of high pressure over southeastern Canada, and that would steer Henri closer to the New England coast. That's still really iffy, so we'll just need to keep an eye on it.