Trump To People Threatened By Dangerous Weather: Drop Dead

Friday's firing of hundreds of staffers at NOAA,
including the National Weather Service, put
American lives in danger, but the Trump
administration is unconcerned about that. 

As expected and dreaded, the Trump administration, led by the Elon Musk putting public safety during extreme weather events in jeopardy. 

The firings include positions at the already-understaffed National Weather Service, which is the nation's front line warning system for when storms turn dangerous. 

Exact numbers are hard to come by, but it looks like about 10 percent of NOAA's work force would lose their jobs. 

The first test of how these cutbacks will affect public safety could come as early as Tuesday and Wednesday, as a potentially significant tornado outbreak seems possible across the Deep South. 

Such outbreaks of severe weather require a high level of attention from meteorologists because such conditions evolve quickly. A harmless thunderstorm can become tornadic in minutes, and the National Weather Service needs to be ready to issue warnings. 

A lack of staff could mean key hints that a tornado is forming could be missed.

Per the Washington Post:

"Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles, said the move to fire NOAA staff 'including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service is profoundly alarming'

'I want to be clear: If there were to be large staffing reductions at NOAA and NWS...there will be people who die in extreme weather events and weather-related disasters who would not have otherwise.'"

The firings include about 375 probationary employees at the National Weather Service. The pre-existing short staffing there is due in large part to a previous hiring freeze imposed by the Trump administration. 

Also on Friday, news broke that a federal judge ruled the mass firings of probationary government works across several agencies are probably illegal. The judge ordered the Office of Personnel Management to rescind directions ordering the mass firings.

It's unknown how this ruling will ultimately affect the firings at NOAA and other agencies. 

Already the cutbacks are being felt. The National Weather Service routinely launches balloons into the air so minute details of atmospheric conditions can be assessed. This data is fed into forecasting computer models. 

Balloon launches are already being canceled due to new staff shortages, so the quality of these forecasting models might well diminish.  That's especially bad when emergency managers are trying to get an idea in advance of where a severe storm might go and how bad it will get.  This helps them pre-position supplies in the path of the storm to get an early jump on recovery. 

Worse climate models will mean worse, more inaccurate forecasts. 

Besides, a lot of FEMA workers have been canned by Trump and Musk, too. The combination FEMA and National Weather Service firings will certainly mean emergency responses to U.S. weather disasters will become much worse. Again, unnecessarily threatening lives. 

Your local TV meteorologist will be affected by the cutbacks as well. They rely on data from the NOAA and the National Weather Service to formulated their forecasts. If the data degrades because the NWS firings, so will the TV meteorologists' forecasting accuracy, no matter how talented that meteorologist is. 

Well known, professional meteorologists around the nation condemned the firings. "Mass firings have started at the National Weather Service, including people in critical roles. Cutting waste is great. Mindlessly taking a sledgehammer to a valuable organization is stupid. All the know-it-alls who said we were fabricating this threat can shut up now, thanks," said Josh Morgerman on X.  Morgerman is a well -known hurricane and typhoon chaser and documentarian. 

When the decision to fire NOAA staffers seemed imminent but hadn't quite happened yet, veteran meteorologist (and one of the nation's top tornado experts) had this to say on X:

"The post is not about politics, but about support for my friends that work for the National Weather Service, part of NOAA, a federal agency.

NWS meteorologists work long, hard hours serving the people of this country, not only during times of severe weather, but on routine days as well,

Their surface and upper air observation networks along with computer models radars and satellites are critical for all meteorologists, including those of us in the private sector."

There is already some political pushback to the NOAA firings. We'll see what happens with those. Colorado Sens. John Hickenlooper (D) and Michael Bennet (D) and Rep. Joe Negus (D) have called for an independent investigation into the mass firings, according to The Hill. 

I know this seems awfully conspiratorial, but I think a goal of the Trump administration is to have people live in fear. They're easier to control that way. So they fear having Medicaid, and Social Security taken away. 

The NOAA firings are another form of fear: Will we still receive adequate warnings when severe weather threatens?

This is all also likely to be a part of Project 2025, the wide ranging 922-page plan developed by the conservative Heritage Foundation to remake the federal government under Trump. 

Trump seems to be playing by the Project 2025 playbook. That plan called for privatizing weather forecasting in the U.S.  That, would, of course, make weather forecasting less reliable, and perhaps put critical weather warnings behind paywalls that some people might not be able to afford. 

I still worry we're heading in that direction, which would be even worse that the stupid, ill-advised NOAA firings we saw on Friday. 

This also all could further enrich Trump. Musk and other U.S. oligarchs. Hey, if the billionaires are able to collect a few extra billion beyond what they already have, it's worth the price of lost lives. At least in their rotten minds. 

 

 

The Vermont Weather Roller Coaster Is On An Extreme Trip

Our by now very familiar snow forecast map from the
National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
This one depicts the mostly 2 or 3 inches of snow
we expect from a snowfall tonight and Saturday
morning. More snow in the mountains as 
usual with this one. 

Around 5 a.m. this morning, it was still above freezing in most of Vermont after an overnight thaw. 

By dawn, things were quite different. 

Temperatures across the northern part of the state were crashing through the 20s, and those trends were soon to follow south. 

It's another backwards day, with high temperatures when they're supposed to be at lowest, and low temperatures in the afternoon when they're supposed to be at their highest. 

We're going to see a lot of huge temperature gyrations over the next few days. 

I'd watch it on some of the roads during this morning's commute. A few snow showers accompanied the blast of colder air this morning, so there will be a slick spot or two here and there. It might not be as widespread as Thursday's mess on the roads, but it's an issue. I noticed a pretty good snow squall in Addison and Washington counties around 6:15 a.m. today, for instance. 

Gusty winds this morning will make it feel colder, but those readings will level off in the teens and 20s this afternoon. 

Things will continue with the temperatures doing the opposite of what they should tonight and tomorrow.

THE CLIPPER

Tonight, a fast moving storm - known as one of those infamous Alberta Clippers - will come in from the west, giving us a burst of snow, then rising temperatures overnight. Maybe even a few rain showers as temperatures sneak above freezing for most of us by tomorrow morning. That will be followed by an even bigger temperature crash during Saturday afternoon.

Most of us will get a decent but short burst of snow overnight, lasting no more than six hours and depositing maybe two or three inches of snow in the valleys and up to five or six in the mountains That should hit between about 8 p.m. and 1 a.m., give or take. 

Just as the snow will last only a few hours, the "thaw" Saturday will only last about that long.  Most of us will start getting above freezing early Saturday morning, but those temperatures should start to crash by early afternoon.  Backwards again, as it normally keeps getting warmer through the early and mid afternoon. Not on Saturday!

Those falling temperatures will be accompanied by snow showers, and a few scattered snow squalls. So once again on Saturday afternoon, you could get caught on some iffy Vermont roads and highways if you're out there during the day. 

THE COLD WAVE

I know this is hitting March, when you start to expect to see  the strength of cold waves starting to wane. But this one could be among the strongest this winter. Which isn't saying a whole lot, since we never did see anything worse than 20s below this winter. 

This time we'll eventually see lows in the single numbers below zero in the warmer banana belt towns and teens below elsewhere. Those frigid temperatures should hit early Monday morning. 

Before we get there, we'll wake up Sunday morning with readings pretty close to 0 degrees. We'll only make it into the teens at best Sunday afternoon.  At least the sun will come out. 

The cold snap will be short-lived, as is usually the case with March bouts of winter weather. Monday will remain unseasonably cold with highs near 20.  But temperatures won't drop much Monday night, and most of us will be back above freezing Tuesday afternoon. 

We're still watching a storm for midweek that looks like it wants to produce rain and temperatures in the 40s.  For now anyway, forecasters have backed off on the amount of rain we'll get from it. But we'll still need to keep tabs on whether enough thawing and rain will come to set off any flooding or river ice jams.  

Vermont Interstate Crashes Cleared Up After This Morning's Mess, Could Be Spots Of Trouble, Too

Traffic camera image shows cars backed up along
Interstate 89 in Georgia this morning due to a a 
series of car crashes. Slick roads from a light
snowfall are to blame. 

 The car and truck crashes on Interstate 89 up around Georgia and St. Albans, Vermont that gummed up the works for hours this morning have long since been cleared up.  

However, at least in some spots across Vermont, we might do it again tomorrow morning with locally treacherous roads. Saturday, too. 

This morning goes to show you how just a little bit of snow with terrible timing can really cause trouble. Burlington reported just 0.6 inches of snow this morning and here at my house in St. Albans, I collected a half inch.

It all hit right during the morning commute. Not before. Not after. During. 

I think the fact that there was so little snow gave morning commuters a false sense of security. Plus, the snow was kind of soggy and slushy, which can be even more slippery on the roads than more powdery snow. 

According to television station WPTZ, it started around 7:30 a.m. when six vehicles were involved in a crash on the southbound lanes of Interstate 89 in the Georgia area. Three people were injured. At about the same time, not far up the road, a tractor trailer carrying frozen food lost control on the slushy snow and hit three vehicles. A fourth vehicle then got involved in the mess.

People traveling in the southbound lane of Interstate 89 were stuck for well over an hour.  Things didn't really get back to normal until around 11:30 this morning. 

Further south in West Hartford, Vermont a car hit a municipal snow plow. It sounds like the car that hit the plow was cut off by another vehicle. So the poor person hit the brakes hard, and skidded into the plow. 

FRIDAY MORNING HEADACHE?

Temperatures rose above freezing this afternoon and roads were just wet. 

It looks like it will stay above freezing in most of northern Vermont until midnight. Then, at first, it will start to cool off gradually. 

But right before dawn, a second cold front will come through, making the temperatures crash rapidly. Any water on the road will freeze. Worse, the front could be accompanied by brief snow showers that can lay down another dusting of snow the will join the freeze party as temperatures fall through the 20s during the morning rush hour.

Just keep that in mind in case there's new issues tomorrow. 

Saturday morning, we do it again as another slightly larger storm blunders through. It looks like most of us will see two to four inches of snow out of that one, with possibly more in the mountains 

I'll have more details on that tomorrow morning. 

More On Heavy Snows That Literally Crushed Parts Of New York, Canada. With Videos

Photo of Camden, New York taken
on February 18.

 If you think the snow we had, now partially melted was bad.  

In Oswego County alone, at least 50 structural collapses occurred within 10 days this February.  

 Some areas east of Lake Ontario have received 360 inches of snow so far this winter. Areas east of Lake Erie in New York have gotten 180 inches so far, according to severeweatherus on Threads. 

A foot of fluffy snow on a typical home roof weighs roughly the same as a pickup truck. A foot of heavy, wet snow is about the same as three pickup trucks. 

The snow was fairly wet and heavy coming off Lake Ontario.  Then, this week a little rain fell, soaking into the snow and make it all the more heavy. 

So far, there have been super serious injuries or deaths. But one woman in Fulton was injured when the roof of her home collapsed. Other people have been injured falling off roofs as they try to shovel away the snow before any collapse could occur. 

Earlier in February, the village of Camden, New York, northeast of Syracuse, endured more than five feet of lake effect snow.  

The Camden public works department salt shed collapsed under the snow, as did the roofs of a local bowling alley and community center.

An onion storage facility in Fulton, New York also collapsed, destroying about a million pounds of onions in the process.

It's not just New York.  In Ottawa, Canada, large sections of a six-story parking garage collapsed under the weight of snow piled on top of it. Nobody was hurt but 50 cars are still stuck in the remaining, intact  section of the garage and nobody  has figured out how to get them out yet. 

Videos. 

Here's video of the Barneveld, New York, fire department collapsing under the weight of heavy snow. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

The wreckage of an onion storage facility in Fulton, New York that collapsed is shown in this video. Again, click on this link to view, or if you see image below, click on that. 

If  you thought you had too much snow to deal with about a week ago, let's take a tour of Camden, New York, about eight days ago to see how bad it could really get. Once again, click on this link to view, ori you see the image below, click on that. 

The moment a parking garage in Ottawa, Canada collapsed, likely because of snow loading on the roof.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.  

 Here's one of the main areas Montreal dumps its snow from its streets. It's an old quarry. Looks pretty efficient. Would love to know when (or if!) all that snow being dumped there will finally melt. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Vermont Spring Hint Didn't Last Long; Now For Some Wintry, Very Changeable Active Weather

My St. Albans, Vermont driveway was finally completely
clear of ice and snow after thawing this week, but a 
burst of snow this morning covered it 
right back up again. 

 UPDATE:  It appears the burst of snow really caused some havoc and trouble in northwest Vermont.

As of 8:45 a.m. Interstate 89 southbound between St. Albans and Georgia was closed. There's reports of a 15-vehicle pileup, with injuries.  Reports are there's some "satellite" car crashes near the main pileup.

There really wasn't much snow, but the wet snow suddenly coating what had been a dry or just wet road appears to have contributed. 

If these reports are true, this will be the worst winter-related car crash in Vermont this winter.

Hoping the injuries aren't serious!

Though road conditions will be improving soon, take care out there. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Wednesday afternoon in Vermont really felt like our first embrace of spring. 

Sure it was actually a few degrees cooler  than it was Tuesday. But the sun came out. The sun angle is better, too, than it was early in the winter. It gets as high in the sky now as it did in mid-October. 

Between that sun, the light winds, it felt downright warm out there. That sun even opened up some bare patches in the snow cover on a few south facing slopes and under evergreen trees. 

It was back to reality this morning. 

An ill-timed batch of snow lifted from north to south across Vermont this morning, screwing up road conditions in time for the morning commute.  Roads  might be in rough shape in a few spots by the time you read this. 

In most places, those roads will improve by later this morning. But only temporary.

BIG PICTURE

We're in for a kind of a wild ride over the next week.  March of all months tends to bring us the most wild swings in temperature and storminess.  (For instance in Burlington, it has the widest potential swings in temperature. It's been as cold there in March as 24 below and as hot as 84 above).

There's also big differences between valleys and mountains. While the snow has been melting in the valleys, it's continued to pile up on the Green Mountain summits. Burlington's snow cover has dropped from 18 to 12 inches in the past week. 

Meanwhile atop Mount Mansfield Wednesday, the snow depth reached 97 inches, the most so far this winter. They'll probably break 100 inches over the weekend. 

Yes, I know March doesn't officially start until Saturday, but in the weather department, March has gotten off to an early start right now. 

There's going to be changes in the weather almost minute by minute over the next week and probably beyond. And confidence in forecasts is a little lower than usual. But let's take you through the next few days, looking at how we think it will shape up. 

TODAY

The burst of snow will taper off briefly as temperatures warm. Then some rain will move in this afternoon. The exception might be eastern and northeastern Vermont, where enough cool air could hang tough to keep most of the precipitation as snow. 

The National Weather Service's forecast of snowfall
around the region between this morning and Sunday
morning. The Green and White Mountains and
Adirondacks could see locally near a foot of snow
while most valleys will be in the three to eight
inch range. Results may vary. 

Highs for most of us should get into the 30s to low 40s. 

The warm air should hang on into the evening but big changes are on the way, of course!

FRIDAY

It will be one of those backwards days. The high temperature for the day will probably hit just a minute after midnight early in the morning and fall all day, bottoming out near 20 degrees or so in the late afternoon, when you're normally supposed to have the high temperature for the day. 

Snow showers will grace the mountains in the morning and then taper off.

Then at night temperatures will start to rise again as the next storm heads our way with another batch of snow starting in the hours before midnight.

SATURDAY

A quick moving, pretty strong Alberta clipper type storm is the culprit here. This should deposit a good two to six inches of snow on most of us by mid-morning Saturday, with more possible in the mountains. 

The path of the storm suggests temperatures could briefly rise above freezing Saturday morning before the storm's powerful cold front crashes through. Temperatures should fall fast during the day, and we will be at risk of snow showers and some heavy snow squalls here and there. 

Overall, between this morning and Sunday morning total snow accumulation should be in the two to four inch range in the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont valleys, four to seven inches in central and northern Vermont, and eight to 12 inches in the central and northern Green Mountains. Maybe more than that in a few favored summits. 

SUNDAY AND MONDAY

Mid-winter cold.  Highs only in the teens Sunday will lead to lows near or below zero Monday morning. It'll start to warm up only a little Monday afternoon, getting into the 20s before a bigger warmup starts Tuesday. 

MIDWEEK WORRIES

Some computer models are hinting at a hit from briefly warm temperatures, and worse, heavy rain toward Wednesday. If that happens, we'll need to worry about flooding and ice jams.  . Could be bad, but we don't know enough about it yet. There's still time for forecasts to change radically, so this could still very much be a false alarm. We'll keep an eye on it. 

Vermont Governor Trying To Scale Back Climate Initiatives

Flooding in Richmond, Vermont, July, 2023. Climate driven
disasters are increasing costing Vermonters a lot of money.
Efforts to combat greenhouse emissions also cost 
money, leading to political tension in Montpelier. 

 Vermont Gov. Phil Scott is a Republican, but he's by no means a Trump Republican

In fact, the two men do not get along with each other, at least based on Scott's past comments about the current president. 

Trump hates any efforts to fight climate change, as he considers the science a hoax.

Scott thinks climate change is a real thing, so I guess he's certain hurdled that low bar. The Vermont governor also thinks we should act to combat climate change. But it appears he thinks we've gone to far with that project. At least for now. 

As WCAX reports: 

"Gov. Phil Scott wants Vermont lawmakers to change course on fighting climate change and proposes lawmakers roll back mandates to decarbonize. For the governor, it's all about affordability. What state lawmakers choose to do or not to do will have a direct effect on what Vermonters may pay for heating oil, electric rates and more.

Environmental advocates are sounding the alarm over what they see as the state walking back on a commitment to the climate and the future."

"We say no to these rollbacks because it is a moral imperative,' said Laura Zakaras of Third Act Vermont."

Scott has long opposed some if not all the climate initiatives passed in recent years by the Vermont legislature. Democrats had a super majority, which meant anything they passed was veto-proof. So the Democrats in recent years passed a flurry of anti-climate change legislation. 

In November, Republicans made gains in the legislature, so now Scott has more power to oppose Democrats. And try to roll back some of the more ambitious climate initiatives now enshrined intoVermont law. 

It's not that Scott doesn't want to combat climate change. He does. He's seen first hand how climate-worsened disasters have made life harder for Vermonters in recent years. His tack is to develop a plan of his own to deal with climate change. 

Per VTDigger:

"'We agree on the need to reduce emissions,' Scott said when announcing the proposal at a January 30 press conference. 'But we need to be realistic about what we can do and make sure we're on a timely that makes sense, and doesn't harm Vermonters financially as a result."

One law is troublesome for both Scott, and the actual deadlines in the statute The Global Warming Solutions Act sets deadlines to reduce climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, 2030 and 2050. That Democratic legislature overrode Scott's veto of the bill in 2020.

This Global Warming Solutions Act requires a lot of self-discipline, accountability and creativity in Vermont for it to work and signs are we might not have enough oomph to comply with it. 

There's no plan in place that would satisfy the 2030 deadline, and that could get messy. Here's why, as VTDigger reports:

"A specific measure within the law, called a legal 'cause of action,' allows citizens to sue the Agency of Natural Resources if the state isn't on track to meet its deadlines. The Conservation Law Foundation has already filed a lawsuit challenging the Agency of Natural Resources' projection that it will meet the 2025 deadline."

A Republican sponsored bill would get rid of the part of this statute that allows those lawsuits if Vermont doesn't meet those emissions deadlines. 

This is all just another example of how hard it really is to reduce emissions and combat climate change. It's costly now, and people living pay check to pay check don't have the means to pay higher taxes, or inflationary costs on other goods, like fuel, if that's what the emissions rules.

Then again, if nobody contributes to cutting emissions, it's more costly for all of us down the road. Climate change is kind of a lose/lose in that regard.   

We don't know what will happen this legislative session, of course.  Fighting climate change is a hard enough fight in tiny little localities like Vermont. 

No consider doing this on a global scale

It's daunting. 

   

 

And there's the tension that always seems to come in these potential expensive ways to deal with climate change.

It's kind of pay now or pay later. with even well-meaning 

  

  

 

A Grieving Family Gets Their Father's Sunset, Thanks To The Kindness Of Strangers

Sunset over Mankato, Minnesota on January 16. After a
gloomy two month period in Minnesota, the sky lit up
on the day Vietnam veteran Craig Wilson passed away,
Photo from Sparrow Media via Facebook

In this (in my opinion) dark age of America, I'm always looking for the light. 

So, too, was a grieving Minnesota family this winter

Vietnam veteran Craig Wilson was laid to rest this winter on a dark, overcast day at the Minnesota State Veterans Cemetery in Preston, Minnesota.

In the final couple months of his life, as his family gathered with him at a Minnesota hospital, they couldn't help noticing how gloomy and cloudy the weather had been, darkened their mood even more as the family patriarch faded. 

Wilson died on January 16.  Late that afternoon, the Minnesota sky lit up with what locals say was one of the most spectacular sunsets in memory. Wilson's family took it as a sign.

Wilson's daughter, Emily Canney, took in that sunset. But after it was over, she realized she never took a photo of it. Which was important, given her father's memory 

"'All that night and all the next day, I'm kicking myself because I didn't get a picture,' Emily said. 'How could you not capture this stunning glorious sunset?'"

Sunset over rural Minnesota on January 16. Photo by
Sandy Zimmer Gaulke

Canney went to the "That's so Minnesota" page on Facebook and wrote: "I'm wondering if any of you amazing photographers happened to capture last night's sunset. My dad passed away yesterday and I'm kicking myself that I didn't get a picture."

Canney hoped that maybe one photographer would respond.

Instead, 883 people did. A few of them offered condolences without a photo. But the overwhelming majority of respondents posted photos of that January 16 Minnesota sunset. 

There were pictures of the sunset over cities. The sunset over the prairie. The sunset over the north woods. Sunset over an informal ice hockey rink. You get the idea. 

Then there were comments like this: "Your dad must have been special for God to have painted such a beautiful sky."

In this age when there's too much darkness around, it's gratifying that so many people want to literally show each other the light. 

It might seem like a small gesture, posting a sunset photo to raise the spirits of a grieving daughter.  But every positive, "small" gesture is really a big one.

It's wonderful that the weather cooperated to create this beautiful sunset, this beautiful tribute. Even better were the people who went outside in the middle of a Minnesota winter to capture a sky glowing in all those colors.  

It's all about finding the light. 

  

After Cold Winter, U.S Finally Gets A Glimpse of Spring; Vermont Only Gets Brief Edges Of It

Despite the vaguely mild weather today, it will be a
while yet until Vermont sees warm spring rain showers
like this one in St. Albans, Vermont, May, 2023.

Spring has sprung -  temporarily at least - in much of the nation following a brutally cold mid-February in many parts of the U.S.  

The warmth interrupted what had been a cold winter in the U.S. while most of the rest of the world stayed warm through the season. 

Some places that were bone chillingly cold suddenly felt like summer. 

As the Washington Post notes, it was 64 degrees Sunday in Aberdeen, South Dakota, breaking the record high of 60 for the date. Just five days earlier, it was 25 below in Aberdeen. 

Buffalo, Wyoming got to 61 degrees Sunday, breaking the old record high for the date by four degrees. 

Temperatures could flirt with 70 degrees as far north as South Dakota today, where rare winter red flag warnings are in effect for fire danger amid dry, windy conditions. 

The warmth in much of the nation comes after a spate of record cold in the middle of the nation and parts of the South last week. 

It looks like much of the central and southeastern United States should stay mostly on the warm side through the first week of March. 

Not so here in Vermont, though. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

In Vermont, we're far from any kind of record highs, but at least it's warmer than it's been. On Monday, the high temperature in Burlington reached 43 degrees.  I know that's not especially warm, but it's still the hottest it's been since January 1. 

If Monday's high of 43 holds for the month, only two Februaries since 2000 had lower high temperatures for the month. 

It's possible it could get even slightly warmer today, given how balmy the overnight was in at least parts of Vermont. It stayed at or above 40 degrees in Burlington continuously from 2 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. today, when the city finally dipped into the upper 30s. through 6 a.m today.

A chilly rain that will move in this afternoon will probably keep temperatures near 40 degrees, though. 

Historically, we've had lots of years in which January and February temperatures have never gotten past the low 40s. But, in the age of climate change, that's become rare 

Since 2000, only four Januarys had a highest temperature for the month cooler than 2025.  So far at least, there's only been two or three Februarys in the last quarter century with cooler monthly high temperature than this year..

To give you an idea of how warm it can get, today is the anniversary of what I consider the most bonkers February weather day in Vermont history.

The temperature in Burlington on February 25, 2017 soared to 72 degrees, breaking the record for the hottest February temperature on record by an incredible nine degrees. (The previous record high for the month was set two days earlier).

Also on February. 25, 2017, severe evening thunderstorms hit parts of the state an a tornado touched down in western Massachusetts. By just before midnight to complete the day, it was snowing in Burlington.

At least we're not going to go through those extremes in the near future, as we get back to what's going on in the here and now. 

With all the snow we had in the first three weeks of February, Burlington actually pulled ahead of snowfall for the season up to this point in the year.

But now, snowfall is suddenly lacking. For now, anyway. As of today, with no snow in the forecast, today we will slip just under the normal for snowfall up to this date. 

We'll still keep up fairly closely with normal seasonal snow, though. We do have a bit of snow in the forecast as the thaw ends Thursday night and early Friday.   It'll be solidly below freezing all day Friday, and signs point toward maybe a light to perhaps moderate snowfall Saturday 

The frigid air is really planning on rolling in here by Sunday and Monday.  Highs Sunday might not get out of the teens and we could see another excursion into subzero morning lows again Monday.  

Overall, extended forecasts are mixed.  March tend to be all over the place, with blizzards and intense cold one day, and mild sunshine a couple days later.  I have a feeling that's what we'll deal with this March, too.  

United States Remained Frigid This Winter While Much Of The Rest Of The World Stays Balmy

Schematic from climate.gov of how cold waves work
Left image is when the jet stream keeps the polar vortex
way up north, preventing much cold air in the winter
from coming south. The right image which has
happened frequently this winter is when the jet
stream gets wonky and wavy, allowing parts of the
polar vortex to get closer, supplying frigid Arctic air.

The world's cold spot this winter, perhaps figuratively, and also literally, it turns out, is the United States. 

No, we weren't colder than the North Pole. But relative to average, the coldest temperatures on Earth seemed to often centered on the Grand Ole US of A. 

January featured a cold continental United States with a warm rest of the world. 

While others around the globe were basking in warmth, Gulf Coast cities like Lafayette, New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola were experiencing an unprecedented snowstorm and all-time record cold 

February has continued the trend. 

Warm spells continue to grace much of the world, with record heat in places like Brazil, Mozambique, southeast Asia, even Lapland and the Arctic north of Scandinavia. 

Meanwhile, places like North Dakota and Montana were in the 30s below zero.  Dangerous wind chills extended down to the Gulf Coast. 

Along the North Carolina and Virginia coasts last week deep snow blanketed the region. Virginia Beach had as much as a foot of snow. Norfolk, Virginia had 10 inches of snow. 

As the Washington Post reports, a remote area about 50 miles northwest of Pierre, South Dakota was, as of a few days ago was the world's coldest place relative to average. Sure, other places were colder, but none were as much as 11 degrees below average.

We in Vermont have at partly shared in this chill, but at least it hasn't been as bad as other parts of nation. 

Much of the U.S. - including Vermont have seen in the past few days temperatures moderate for now. North Dakota is seeing some above freezing temperatures and it has gotten as high as the 50s in South Dakota. Vermont is expecting temperatures near 40 this week. 

But it doesn't look like we're quite done. The weather pattern in early March will revert at least briefly to that cold one again for the United States. And that winter chill could last at least into mid-March. 

REASONS

The particular chilly weather in the United States especially compared to what's going on in the rest of the world, has revived the discussion and debate over whether climate change is paradoxically sending us these cold blasts. 

We know there's always been bitter Arctic cold waves in the United States, and the basic weather pattern that causes them is usually the same. A big northward bulge in the jet stream forms over western North America. 

That helps create a corresponding sharp southward dip in the jet stream down into the central and eastern United States.  Meanwhile there's the polar vortex, that big upper air swirl of frigid air that usually spins somewhere in the far northern hemisphere in the winter. 

This weather pattern I described displaces the polar vortex southward, closer to the United States. Or the pattern stretches the polar vortex into the shape of a peanut, with one end of the "peanut" close to the U.S. and causing a big chill. 

Bottom line: this polar vortex/jet stream set up  funnels the frigid air direct from near the North Pole to the eastern half to two thirds of the United States. 

As the Washington Post describes it, this winter is probably the most intense siege of polar vortex type weather in the United States since 2014. Though the cold in 2014 was more consistent and much worse than what we have experienced this winter. 

Of course, a bit of a factor why this winter has been a little milder than 2014 is that the whole world has continued to warm since then.  So it's a bit harder for it to get as cold as it once did - though there's always exceptions. 

CLIMATE CHANGE?

A hot topic that's been going on for years now is Arctic warming. The Arctic is getting toastier much faster than the mid-latitudes. Is this causing the jet stream and the polar vortex to get weird, taking more excursions south toward the United States or Europe more often than it used to?

The question is still not settled.  

There are also picky details regarding those unsettled questions that are still being hashed out. We know that winters in general have been getting warmer almost everywhere. But some studies suggest some areas - the northeastern U.S. among them - seem to be having much more variable winters.  Some are super warm, a few are pretty intense. 

Even there, it gets muddied. Researchers know the winters are getting milder. They've also found that the absolute coldest temperature in each winter is warming at an even faster clip. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Our winter is not over, but like much of the rest of the nation, the vigorous winter of 2025 seems like a mild April breeze compared to 2014.  The polar vortex was a frequent visitor to the Northeast in the winter of 2015, which locally was more harsh than the year before. 

So 2015 is the most recent winter that was extremely cold. February that year had an average temperature of 7.6 degrees the third coldest on record behind 1934 and 1979. 

Depending on what this week's anticipated warm spell will do, February, 2025 might turn out to be the coldest since 2015, but will be far, far, milder than that year. 

February, 2025 will be snowier than than 2015, when 22.7 inches fell. We're already about nine inches ahead of 2015 this month.  

However, in 2015, the storm track was just to our east. Late January and February was the historic "snowmageddon" in Boston, when 95 inches of snow fell within a month. 

The bottom line for Vermont is this winter will end up as a more "traditional" one than we've seen in recent years, but it will be far, far from the coldest. And not nearly the snowiest, either, unless we have an enormous surprise in March and April. 

 

Vermont Week Ahead: Thawing For Awhile With Frequent Rain/Snow Chances

A few snowflakes seen drifting down yesterday -
a gloomy but somewhat milder day than we've
had recently. A thaw starts today. 

OK, technically, our anticipated thaw sorta, kinda started Sunday, but it was essentially another winter day. 

In Burlington and here in St. Albans, the temperature got up to 34 degrees for a little while, which didn't exactly set off a rush of melting snow.  A few places in southeastern Vermont managed to reach the mid-30s. 

Snowflakes occasionally wafted down out of the sky, and a few places picked up an inch or so of snow. 

Except of course near the usual snowy Jay Peak, where nearby towns such as Westfield and Montgomery got about four inches of new snow Saturday night and early Sunday. 

After more snow flurries and snow showers last evening, we're starting this Monday morning pretty mild.  That should set the stage for our long awaited thaw.  

It won't be a dramatic thaw.  It won't suddenly get wildly warm, then immediately crash to near 0 temperatures within hours. Instead, temperature trends will be gradual. 

There won't be any big storms, either. Just a near constant risk of drizzle, cold rain drops here and some potential slight snowy interruptions. Especially in higher elevations where the thawing won't amount to too much to begin with.   

And like the skies we saw on Sunday, it will mostly a gloomy thaw.   

We might see a little sun this morning. But don't count on it. The sun might also come out a little bit on Wednesday.  You might not want to hold your breath on that one, either .

And spoiler: We're not done with winter. It's going to come roaring back before you know it. 

Let's break down the week.

TODAY

A storm passing far to our north means we'll pretty much miss out on any real precipitation today. There probably will be a few snowflake and raindrops around, especially close to the Canadian border, but they won't amount to anything.  The Champlain Valley looks like it will turn a bit gusty, as south winds could get as high as 35 mph.

The breezes will keep tonight mild, as lows in the Champlain Valley and a few other warmer valleys probably won't even get below freezing.  That sets us up for Tuesday.

TUESDAY

The best guess is this will be a cloudy gloomy, possibly foggy, drizzly damp day. Highs in the valleys should make it to about 40 degrees. There's some questions as to whether the mountain summits might see a little snow, rime ice or freezing drizzle. 

There's a weak little system coming through which will provided us with some light sprinkles or wet snowflakes. One computer forecasting model is a little stronger with this system, which if it pans out could end up giving us a slight accumulation of wet snow Tuesday afternoon and evening. Forecasters are dubious about this, however, so don't count on any replacement snow, unless perhaps you're on a mountain peak. 

A thaw day, but not a nice day, if it works out as planned.

WEDNESDAY

Perhaps the "nicest" day of the week? At least there very little if any precipitation. And it will be mild, with highs in the 36 to 42 degree range. 

THURSDAY

Last day of the thaw. At this point it looks like a modest storm might start us out with a little snow in the morning, but most of us should change to a light, cold rain during the day. We'll keep an eye on this because if the colder air gets here faster, we could have a little more snow.  

Earlier forecasts had called or a somewhat larger storm on Thursday, but now it's looking pretty tame. More gloom and dampness, but that's about it. 

FRIDAY

Colder and windy as the thaw ends. Morning snow showers should taper off. Of course, the timing could change this far out.   Road conditions from light snow showers will be a question once again. We shall see.

SATURDAY

Another round of snow showers, but again, so far it's not looking like a big storm. There's some questions on temperatures. If the storm goes a little to our north, we could briefly pop back up above freezing again. If it goes to our south, we stay cold. The forecasting models are split on this one so far. 

Beyond that we get another winter cold shot, but we'll address that when we get closer to the event. 

For those of you who aren't ready for spring, there will be plenty of snow left in the mountains and many areas of northern and central Vermont after this week's little thaw to carry on with your winter fun

 

Fallout From Flooding Nearly Two Years Ago Continues To Affect Vermont

Image from Reddit shows the Sterling Market and
other buildings in Johnson, Vermont inundated with
water in July, 2023. Efforts to reopen the
grocery store have failed, and a buyout is
now likely to turn the property into part of a floodplain

 More proof that it seemingly takes forever to recover from a catastrophic flood. 

Towns like Johnson, Plainfield and many other Vermont communities  are still coming to terms and reshaping themselves after the catastrophic floods in the summers of 2023 and 2024. 

The settlement pattern of most Vermont villages, towns and cities in the state.over the centuries is near rivers, in flood plains.   

Water and currents in these rivers aided commerce, transportation, the generation of electricity, and even, unfortunately, garbage disposal.

 Sure, these towns would occasionally suffer serious, damaging floods over the decades and centuries, but they were infrequent enough to be survivable to these communities, at least most of the time.

Modern society does not really need these rivers for economic livelihood as much anymore. That would be OK, if floods didn't happen all that frequently. But they do in our unfortunately age of climate change. 

As that climate change roars on, there's nothing to suggest our onslaught of floods will ease. In fact they'll probably accelerate. 

It's making less and less sense to keep our beautiful, compact and walkable villages and towns near the rivers. But you can't just pick everything up and move it all immediately. 

Still, we're seeing a gradual retreat from the water, and that's slowly changing the face of Vermont. I've brought up this fact before here, but the job continues in fits and starts. It's worth it to keep tabs on this phenomenon, just to assess how it's changing all of our lives and our sense of place. 

It's all about resiliency in the face of climate change. 

 JOHNSON

In Johnson, the flood of July, 2023 filled the inside the Sterling Market, the only major grocery store in town, almost to the ceiling.    

Efforts have been made to re-open the store ever since, with no success. The property is owned by Pomerleau Real Estate, a firm that owns a number of commercial properties around Vermont. 

As VTDigger explains:

"It's former operator Associated Grocers of New England, initially vowed to return, but the proposal was vetoed by its governing co-op board.

....Pomerleau then brought in executives from Shaw's a grocery chain with locations throughout New England. Shaw's was interested opening a store, according to (Pomerleau president Ernie) Pomerleau, but needed the building's owners to commit to installing flood mitigation measures, including a new floodgate, to ensure its protection against future flooding." 

Pomerleau was trying to get a grant through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, with support from the town of Johnson, to help with flood mitigation of buildings in disaster zones, like the town was after the 2023 flood. 

Pomerleau's engineers were coming up with plans to make the building nearly impervious to most future flood events. But that was understandably not good enough for Shaw's. That company pulled the plug on the venture late last year. 

Before 2023, the building housing the market was badly damaged in floods in 1995 and 2011, and had several close misses with floods in recent years. 

So now, the only choice left for Pomerleau is to give up on the building the company built back in the 1960s. 

VTDigger again: 

"Lacking any better alternative, Pomerleau has reluctantly joined other property owners in Johnson seeking to offload their flood-prone homes and businesses and become the 17th property to apply for a buyout since 2023."

These buyouts make sense, as if they go through, the flood-prone properties are razed and replaced buy green space and flood plains in which future floods don't really harm anything. 

This plan is full of uncertainly and risks, however. First of all, none of the 17 properties have completed the buyout process yet. Plus, with the new Trump administration cutting spending willynilly and steadfastly avoiding anything that has to do with climate change, these buyouts might not go through. 

Even if they do, they'll really change the face of Johnson. 

Johnson consists of two municipalities in northern Vermont, the village, where the heart of the downtown is, has about 1,300 people. The surrounding neighborhoods - Johnson Town, has about 3,500 people for a total of roughly 4,800 residents. 

So it ain't big. 

Converting 17 once-thriving properties to green space would have a big effect on Johnson's tax base, and basically the way it looks. 

Climate change related-disasters are becoming more and more common pretty much everywhere, including in Vermont, so it's not just Johnson changing. It's many of the state's compact and picturesque villages and tiny downtowns that must radically change. 

One of the other Vermont towns going through a similar process is Plainfield

PLAINFIELD

Plainfield, about 35 miles southeast of Johnson, suffered a fair amount of damage in the 2023 flood. Exactly a year later, on July 10-11, 2024, things got exponentially worse. 

Flash flooding roared through the middle of Plainfield on the night of July 10. The flood swept away most of a large apartment building known as "Heartbreak Hotel."  Luckily the building's occupants fled shortly before the structure was destroyed. Other buildings in town were severely damaged. 

The remains of the so-called Heartbreak Hotel apartment
building in Plainfield, Vermont, July, 2024. Most of the
building was swept away in the extreme flooding
that hit the town.  

Like Johnson, people are waiting on buyouts, the town's grand list is taking a big hit, and large sections of Plainfield village that weren't already swept away by the flood last July will be gone. 

Twenty-eight homes are awaiting FEMA buyouts. (Again, like in Johnson, we're aren't sure if the Trump administration will follow through with this).

The solution they seem to be settling on in Plainfield is to turn traditional settlement patterns backwards. In other words, Plainfield village is headed for the hills. At least part of it. 

As WCAX reports:

"Now the town is considering a plan to expand the downtown and invest $2 million  in water, sewer and road infrastructure to a 23-acre plot of private land. Some acknowledge it will change the nature of Plainfield, but add they can't endure another summer of floods. 'We don't want another repeat of this, that's for sure' said local resident Butch Lakin.'"

The extension of Plainfield onto higher ground is meant to truly be a part of the village and not isolated. The vision is for people who accepted buyouts to purchase plots of land on the 23 acres and build newer, safer homes. 

Of course, we don't know where this plan is headed. But Johnson and Plainfield are just two of many examples of how climate change will eventually radically change what Vermont looks like, and feels like. 

 

 

The Beginning Of The End Of A Vermont Winter

A crocus emerges from the snow last spring in
St. Albans, Vermont.  Believe it or not, the
harshest part of winter is about to end, but
that doesn't mean we'll escape the occasional
frigid day or snowstorm. 

A Don't let the headline on this post completely fool you. 

We still have a pretty good amount of winter left to go here in Vermont. It's only late February, after all.

Recent winters have been springlike, so when spring really got here in those years, it almost felt anticlimactic. 

This year, we're certainly having a  much  more "traditional" winter this go around.  So for now, we have to harken back to the way seasons used to work before climate change. Many of us have an old fashioned, traditional case of spring fever. 

Right on cue, we are now at what I would consider the beginning of the end of winter. 

It's been pretty hard core in recent weeks up until now. If no more snow falls in Burlington this month, the 31.8 inches of snow the city has gotten this month will make this the sixth snowiest February on record.  The month is also running four degrees or so colder than normal.

(That's the new, warmer normal of course. Had we been having this same exact month back in the 1970s, it would be pretty close to what was then normal).

Even so this is the time of year when we see the harshness of winter begin to break, just a little. You'll see that this coming week with that anticipated thaw. 

Temperature forecasts have actually trended a little warmer for the upcoming week. In lower elevations, you'll probably see noticeably less snow on the ground that you do today.  Most of that will be because the warmth is settling the snow. But some of it will melt. Especially since bits of light rain could fall Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons in most valleys. 

It all means most of us - except those in higher elevations - have probably see the deepest snow of the winter already.  

The snow won't come close to entirely disappearing, of course. There will still be plenty left by the end of the week. Especially since some additional snow is possible toward Thursday night and Friday when it's expected to start turning colder again. 

A little additional snow is expected up in the mountains off and on all week, so they might end up with a slight net gain in snow cover. That takes us to the next month. 

MARCH

You can obviously see extreme winter conditions in March that are just as bad as the worst that even January can bring.  It's been as cold as 24 below in Burlington in March. Seven of Burlington's top 20 biggest snowstorms have hit in March. 

But in general, even if it's cold - like this March seems like it wants to shape up to be - you see signs the grip of winter is beginning to weaken. 

While we hope to see some thawing in March, we often
also see some big snowy setbacks. Pictured here is the
Pi Day Blizzard in St. Albans, Vermont, March 14, 2017

The sun angle in March  is much higher than it was in December.  So even on blue sky days that are well below freezing, the strength of the afternoon sun melts the south and west sides of snowbanks a little. 

The trunks of trees collect the sun's warmth, and you see the snow melting away from those tree trunks a bit. You start to see rings of bare ground around those trees. 

If light snow falls during the day, chances are the roads won't be as tricky as they would have been earlier in the winter. The sun's heat making its way through the clouds might warm up the pavement a bit, making things less treacherous.

Lake Champlain

Our big Lake Champlain has come closer to freezing over this year than it has since 2019, which is the last time it completely froze. 

There is some open water left on the lake, and the upcoming week's warm spell could remove some of the thin ice on the broad lake.

Lake Champlain could still freeze over completely, but the chances of that happening this year are beginning to diminish. 

It's the sun angle again.  Even it it's cold, the sun can heat up surface of any darker open water, melting the ice next to it a little.  

Still, if we have some calm, subzero nights in early March - which has happened in many years - Lake Champlain could still completely freeze over.  In 2019, the lake froze over briefly on March 8 because the little bit of open water on March 7 that year froze over as temperatures bottomed out to around 0 on the morning of March 8. 

Snow

I mentioned the likely slow melt of the snow in March, but we almost always have snowy setbacks to the slow melt down of our winter snow cover.  

The warming spring air can actually, ironically make snowfall heavier, which is probably part of the reason why so many of those greatest snow have happened in March. 

Large storm systems depend on a contrast of warm, humid air to the south and cold air to the north. 

Once we get into March, the air feeding into storms from the south is warmer and more humid than it would have been in midwinter. Since that warmer, wetter air can hold more moisture, precipitation can be heavier in a March storm than one back in January. 

If that added moisture rides up into the cold air to the north - and if Vermont is in that cold air - we can really get dumped on.  As recently as 2017 the famous Pi-Day blizzard deposited nearly three feet of snow in northern Vermont. 

Since it is warmer in March, as we go through the month, some of the snowstorms will feature wetter, heavier snow, since the temperatures are more likely be near near 32 degrees in a March storm. 

Also, if you're sick of snow, March snow tends to start melting almost immediately after the storm ends. That's especially true as we get deeper into the month. 

The approach of spring comes with a lot of false starts, as we in Vermont know well.  But the trend line is our friend if you're getting tired of winter. 

The normal high temperature today is 33 degree, at least as measured in Burlington. By March 1, it's 36. Exactly a month from now, on March 22, the normal high is up to 43 degrees.

We're at the point now where people who love winter still have plenty of time to enjoy. Those who are less enthusiastic can now start to seek out signs of the end of all these frigid temperatures and huge snowbanks. 

Before you know it, happy yellow daffodils will be dancing in the warm breezes of a Vermont spring. 

Don't Say "Climate": Trump Administration Scrubbing Climate Information From Federal Websites,

Don't say climate change!  Trump administration scrubs
mention of it from everywhere, because if you don't 
see the words then it doesn't exist, apparently. 

 If you don't say "climate change" then it doesn't exist.  

That, apparently is the logic of our lovely Trump administration as federal websites across the board remove pretty much all references to climate change over the course of his first month in office. 

Trump's first term played fast and loose with lots of information including items related to climate change. 

But this time, it's a full throttled Orwellian vision in which "facts" are whatever the Trump administration wants them to be. Reality is besides the point.  

This post isn't even talking yet about anticipated firings at NOAA and NWS that will hobble the nation's weather forecasting and warning system. That' update is coming in a future post arriving pretty soon. I'm just talking in this post about the Trump administration's thought that if you don't ever think about climate change, then it will never be a problem. 

Or something like that. 

Among the harmful firings at the Federal Emergency Management Agency or FEMA are staffers that worked on climate change related issues. Since climate change affects the severity, location and types of disasters the U.S. faces, you'd think you'd need these staffers,

You know, to anticipate where and how disasters might strike so the agency can more readily help victims of these calamities. 

But I guess not 

The sprawling federal Agriculture Department has been ordered to scrub references to climate change as well, as Politico reports. 

The directive "could affect information across dozens of programs including climate-smart agriculture initiatives, USDA climate has, and Forest Service information regarding wildfires the frequency and severity of which scientists have linked to hotter, drier conditions fueled by climate change."

For now, some climate related material is still available from the Agriculture Department. USDA Climate Hubs, for example, was still up as of Wednesday (FEB5

NASA's Global Climate Change website is about to transition away, it it hasn't already.    It's been a handy source of climate information, including a dashboard on the home page that gives you the current amount of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere and their trends, global temperature and its trend and what direction Arctic sea ice is headed. Spoiler: Down.

There's now suddenly a disclaimer on the NASA Global Climate Change website that says "NASA's Global Climate Change website is going to look a little different in the coming months because we're headed to a new home, a more integrated portal on science.nasa.gov. Keep your eyes on our new space as we transition."

Yeah, love the attempt at the PR language (eye roll).  I'm not going to make a definitive conclusion on what the Trump administration is going to do with this site, but I bet it's not good. 

Climate information is disappearing from a lot of federal government websites, not just NASA. As Inside Climate News reports:

"The Trump administration is also removing climate information and documents from the U.S. State Department website, which (several days ago) had a climate section filled with documents related to U.S. climate policies aimed at meting the terms of the 2014 Paris climate pact, as well as materials outlining reaching plans to cut emissions of greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, including methane.

But searching the current State Department website for the term 'global warming' just now leads to a long list of non-functioning links, with the Biden-era climate materials relegated to archives that have to be searched for separately."

 Even experienced scientists are now beginning to have trouble finding climate info on government websites. As Inside Climate News reports:

"Some of the changes may already be making it harder for U.S. climate scientists to collaborate internationally. 

David Ho, a University of Hawaii at Manoa climate researcher, said last week he found an error message when he tried to look for reports related to his work on ocean carbon cycles on the White House Office of Science and Technology website."

There are efforts to preserve web material that already exists before it is completely scrubbed. There's End of Term Web Archive, which is a collaboration of nonprofit groups, universities and two federal agencies to preserve scientific data. 

Other organizations have been combing government websites, preserving science data before it can be scrubbed by the Trump administration. 

I worry it's a matter of time that we won't be able to see basic climate data like the monthly reports NOAA"s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) regularly releases.

Or even just the huge waves of routine daily data all the National Weather Service offices release. After all, some rogue scientist could use and compile that data to find temperature trends (which is part of what the NCEI does now.

Guy Walton, the dude from Guy on Climate agrees, as this lack of information hurts everyone, from citizen scientists like me to experts like Walton. 

"....if the NCEI surface temperature records site gets taken down, I can't do my research. Only a few months ago, ,I was thinking that after the election of Kamala Harris, the NCEI record site might be improved with some of my input. Now I will feel fortunate if it and other tools for research used by many other scientists are not touched. We will see." 

Any truthful information is suspect in the Trump administration. You probably don't even have to use "banned"words or phrases like climate change or global warming. 

Merely mentioning a record hot day, month or season might well get you in trouble 

Even collaboration of any kind is out. As CBC reported, any cooperation between Canadian scientists or Environment Canada and NOAA are pretty much verboten. 

NOAA scientists now just submit for review if any discussions with Canadians include climate, energy, offshore wind, ocean mapping and exploration, competitive seafood, aquaculture, ocean plastics, the World Meteorological Organization, Arctic security and Arctic energy, notes CBC. 

A side effect of all this would be a brain drain from the United States to Canada and European countries, perhaps Asia too.

Most scientists want to seek the truth of the world around them. If that becomes impossible to do in the United States, then do it elsewhere, right?

The Trump administration's scrubbing away of any references to climate change won't just hurt Americans subject to the direct disasters and dangers created by global warming. Our economy, our innovation, our safety, our own wallets are all at risk. 

All because the merry band of oligarchs want to make a few more trillion dollars. 

 

A Little More Vermont Snow, But Anticipated Small Low Elevation Thaw Will Settle Snowbanks A Bit

Photo taken early this morning clearing off the just
under three inches of fluff on what I'm calling
Snow Canyon Drive, which is what I'm now
calling my St. Albans, Vermont driveway.

Well, many of us woke up to yet another little Vermont snowfall this Friday morning. 

It wasn't much, about an inch or two or even three for some of us, and it was really fluffy. There isn't much water in the snow, and it's like feathers. 

My place had 2.8 inches of snow last night, but there was  nothing to it. Just added a tiny bit to the height of the snowbanks out there once I cleared the driveway.  

If you want to lose some - but certainly not all of the snow - you're in luck, at least in the valleys. 

 We do have a bit of a thaw coming up for next week. Though there's a chance the thaw could end in a new snowstorm. That possibility is being eyed, more on that toward the end of this post. 

 I know the ski areas want to keep the snow as long as possible. The thawing won't amount of much of anything up there, and in fact they have chances for a little additional snow during the week.   

TODAY/SATURDAY

The chill we've experienced this week isn't really going anywhere today and tonight, but will start to wane Saturday. 

A few more snow shower will wander around today, mostly in the mountains, and they won't amount to much. An inch or two maybe in some favored spots in the central and northern Greens. Highs will one be within a few degrees either side of 20 - which is about ten degrees colder than normal for this time of year. 

It gets into the single digits either side of zero again tonight. 

The warming trend starts Saturday with highs still cool, but warmer than we've seen in over a week - highs in the mid twenties to low 30s.

UNSETTLED WARM WEEK

Next week is going to be a fairly warm one - a rarity in Vermont since the beginning if January. It'll get into the low 30 Sunday, then the forecast calls for highs in the mid and upper 30s with some low 40s here and there Monday through Thursday. .

At this point, the heat wave of sorts is forecast to peak on Tuesday, when some valleys are most likely to reach the low 40s.  That's not particularly hot for this time of year. But after what ws turning out to be among the coldest February in recent years, we'll take what we can get. 

Nights will be especially warm which will skew the overall temperatures to well above normal. Warmer valleys might not even quite get below freezing Monday and Tuesday nights.  

Even with this mild spell, February will still probably turn out chillier than average overall.   At this point in the month, February, 2025 is the second coldest since 2008.  We'll see where we end up in the rankings when the month ends a week from today.  

Precipitation?

The weather will be unsettled through this "heat wave." and, frankly,  kind of unpredictable. 

There doesn't appear to be any big storms in this mix at least until Thursday night or Friday.  But a sort of chaotic weather pattern will bring a series of pretty weak disturbance through. It's hard to hash out when precipitation will fall and in what form next week. 

So, taking a cue from meteorologists who know much more than I do, we'll broad brush it and give a nearly constant risk of snow or even rain showers Monday through Thursday. 

I say rain showers, because valleys should be warm enough Monday afternoon, and especially Tuesday afternoon to support some cold rain drops instead of snowflakes. 

The thawing and bits of rain won't be nearly enough to cause any sort of flooding, so don't worry at all about that. 

In fact, I don't think the deep snow cover will melt all that much, as the top layer of snow will melt slightly into lower layers of the snow and then sort of freeze. 

The depth of the snow cover will probably drop quite a bit as the minor thawing and light rains will make the snow settle.

The warm-ish temperatures will also perhaps break up some ice dams on roofs and eaves or force snow to slide off some roofs with deep snow on them. Parts of the deeply snow covered roof on my house could stand good slide off right now. 

 Plus, those tall, tall snowbanks lining my driveway should shrink some. They high banks are making me claustrophobic. And smaller snow banks would  give us room to put future snows before winter ends.

Which could happen next Friday. 

The computer models have for days been hinting at some sort of storm at that point. If it happens, it won't be nearly as big as the one we had Sunday.  Still, some computer forecasting models do have it dumping several inches of snow on us. Others have the storm largely missing, or turning out be be a pretty weak nothing burger. A few don't bring cold air in here that fast, so mixed precipitation would be possible. 

The bottom line, of course, is we don't quite know yet what will happen with that storm, if it happens at all. But...

COLD MARCH?

That maybe/maybe not storm on Friday, whichever shape it takes, is almost sure to bring in another batch of frigid winter air.  March will come in like a lion this year. Don't know it that lion will be a scary attack animal or a semi-cute little puddy tat. 

In any event, the arrival of March will set aside any first tastes of spring fever you might have acquired during the semi- balmy weather we'll have for the last week of February. 

It's too soon for specifics, but long range forecasts are leaning toward colder than normal weather on most days through at least the first week of March. There's a good chance the chill could last into mid-March.

On top of that, precipitation chances are sort of leaning on the wetter than normal side, which suggests more snow in March. 

That said, long range forecasts start to get especially iffy in March.  The northern hemisphere is starting to head toward spring. The atmospheric changes associated with the coming season make predicting how things turn out that much more difficult. 

Bottom line: There's no guarantees on how long the late winter chill will last. But I wouldn't start fishing your flip flops and swimwear out of the deep depths of your closets just yet.