Vermont Had Tiny Bit Of Rain Last Night, But Long Dry Spell Rolls On

Clouds increase over Hard'ack Hill in St. Albans,
Vermont yesterday as temperatures rose into the
upper 60s. Cooler today and tomorrow, but
dry weather continues for next several days. 

A tiny bit of rain fell on a few parts of Vermont overnight with the latest cold front, but we still really need the rain.  

Thankfully - so far - drought conditions haven't really worsened, according to the latest weekly U.S Drought Monitor, released yesterday. 

Just like the week before, 14 percent of Vermont was in drought and 81 percent of the state was either in drought or abnormally dry, according to the report.  I'm guessing drought conditions worsen more slowly in the late autumn than in the spring and summer. 

Still, things might get worse as very little rain is forecast for the next week. 

Last night's rain was "heavier" than expected in a few spots, but that means there was a few hundredths of an inch of rain instead of sprinkles. Burlington has 0.08 inches overnight. Many other towns had nothing at all. 

Yesterday was also one of the warmest days, if not the warmest day we'll see until next spring. Burlington and Rutland reached 67 degrees. Montpelier was 68 degrees. Springfield reached 70. 

It's cooler today, but we're breaking the trend of each cold front bringing ever more chillier weather. True, today and tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, but not colder than the last chilly day we had earlier in the week. 

We're now back to the routine of dry, sunny days. At least generally. Let's get into the daily forecasts as always. 

TODAY

We started out really mild for this time of year. Most of us started the day with temperatures in the 50s. Since a cold front has just come through, those temperatures won't go anywhere. In some spots, they might fall a little during the day. 

Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest. The skies will be mostly cloudy because of the cool, unstable air coming in. Those clouds could yield some sprinkles in the northern mountains, but that's it. 

The wind and the overall dry conditions are keeping the fire danger high across the state.

SATURDAY

We're back to the usual weather: Sunny, cool and dry. After the typical frosty morning, temperatures will rise to the low 50s by afternoon. Winds will be lighter, too.

SUNDAY

Rinse and repeat. A frosty morning, then a sunny, bright day. It'll be a little warmer than Saturday, with highs well into the 50s.

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather pattern will be slowly trying to break down, but it will take time to do so. 

It'll be dry and relatively mild during the first half of the week. 

By Tuesday. a storm will be causing some rough weather in the middle of the nation. But weather systems will still be gummed up, so it will probably take until the end of the week before we see any rain.

Plus, the computer models always argue over sluggish, weird weather patterns, so we don't know how much rain we'll get or when it will arrive. But we hope it turns out to be a real soaker. We need it. 

Vermont Dry Spell Continues; Wind Increases Fire Risk Today, Tomorrow

The last gold leaves of the season cling to a tree
under yesterday's clouds on Wednesday in St. 
Albans, Vermont. 

Technically the long dry spell ended in Burlington yesterday. 

As expected, almost all the clouds we had Wednesday yielded just virga - which is rain that falls from clouds but dries up on the way down. 

However, a thicker cloud passed over parts of the Champlain Valley toward evening, and that yielded a whopping 0.01 inches of rain on Burlington. In other words, nothing that would change how dry it is out there. 

TODAY

The fire risk is even higher than it has been lately, mostly because the winds will pick up today. We'll get into it a bit. 

Skies have cleared, and we had mostly a blue sky dawn, with a little haze and valley fog. Some places started the day with calm winds, and others, mostly in the Champlain Valley, had somer south winds. 

That has led to a wild range in temperature. At 8 a.m., it was near 30 degrees east of the Green Mountains. Meanwhile, it was 51 degrees in Burlington.  

Temperatures will even out nicely by this afternoon. And it will be a warm one. Possibly the warmest day until next spring. Maybe. Highs should get into the 60s. Maybe 70 degrees in the warmest valleys. 

The real problem is the wind. The humidity remains low, and winds will increase from the south. The fallen leaves are now crispy and dry, and the weeds that grew all summer are dead and dry. We've already had some brush fires this week. With the gusts today, the chances that that fires could get out of hand have gone way up. 

So today's a good day to not thrown your cigarette butt out the window, or do any backyard fires. Be careful out there.

FRIDAY

Another cold front will come through late tonight or very early tomorrow. There might be another sprinkle or two overnight in northern Vermont and in the Green Mountains. But again, nothing to end the dry spell. 

Cold air will be flooding in, but it won't be as cold as the last round. Highs should hold in the 50s. But instability clouds will clutter the skies, and a few sprinkles will dot the northern Green Mountains.  However, any sprinkles won't make a difference. 

It'll be breezy, this time from the west and northwest. So again, fires that start would spread quickly.

SATURDAY

We're back to the pattern we've been in for a couple weeks. The day will start frosty and cold. By afternoon, we should up near 50 degrees, maybe low 50s in the warmer, broader valleys.  Probably wall to wall sunshine, too. 

SUNDAY

Another day, another repeat. Cold and frost to start, with sunshine dominating. There might be a few clouds up there in the sky, but overall, another gorgeous day.  It'll be a few degrees warmer than Saturday, with highs up in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather will continue well into the week. The weather pattern will eventually change, but it will be slow to untangle. It still looks like it might finally rain - really rain - toward the end of the week, but it's hard to promise anything yet. The computer models are still arguing fiercely with each other over this. Vernon

Frigid Vermont Morning, Then Today's Clouds Will Try To Rain, But Fail. Fire Risk Continues

Late autumn in Vermont, as seen yesterday near Sheldon.
Blue skies, a harvested corn field, and stick season
nearly completely underway.

As dawn broke this morning, the atmosphere here in St. Albans took on a temporary pinkish hue. That was the sun breaking past the horizon and lighting up some high clouds that had moved in overnight.  

Those high clouds prevented temperatures from bottoming out as low as they could have. Still it was cold. Really cold.

Everybody in Vermont was down in the 20s early this morning. A few places in the Northeast Kingdom might have seen the upper teens, since they were the last place in the state to see the high clouds. 

The dry weather has prompted brush fire problems in Vermont, which seems to be an increasing issue in recent autumn in the Green Mountain State. 

On Tuesday, a vehicle burst into flames on a remote access road in Jericho, the fire spread into the woods, burning about an acre before firefighters stopped the blaze. 

It's been a busy fire year, at least in terms of Vermont acreage burned. So far in 2026, 296.5 acres have burned, the most since 2016. It's even more than the super dry autumn of 2024.

More fires are definitely possible in the coming days as little or no rain is coming. Now, the daily forecasts. 

TODAY

Today's clouds are now established in Vermont, and they'll lower and thicken a bit during the day. Usually that means rain, but nope, not for us. 

Actually, it probably will rain some from the high and mid-level clouds that cover the skies today. Chances are, weather radar will light up at times with what appears to be rain. 

But, remember, our air is still quite dry. In their forecast discussion this morning, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington says rainfall will evaporate by the time it gets down to 5,000 or 6,000 feet elevation, so it won't even hit the tallest peaks of the state.

Sometimes the clouds will be thinner at times, so a little sun might get through at times. The clouds will keep high temperatures in the low 50s.  

THURSDAY

The sunshine will return tomorrow. South to southwest winds will increase, boosting temperatures into the 60s. Maybe 70 in the warmer valleys. Since the air will be dry and the winds will be gusty, it'll be a real fire risk day.  So be especially careful with fire tomorrow. 

Another weak cold front will come through at night. There could be a few hundredths of an inch of rain north, probably little or nothing south. It won't make a difference in the dry weather. 

FRIDAY

The cold front will have gone through and somewhat gusty west winds. The air mass coming in won't be as cold as the one we had yesterday, despite the fact that another big, fat, high pressure system coming in.  Highs should reach the 50s. 

The sky won't turn crystal clear like recent cold fronts, so we'll call it partly cloudy.   It'll be another high fire risk day with the dry air and wind. 

SATURDAY

Back to the routine we've been in. A cold, subfreezing start, then sunshine, blue skies and highs in the low 50s. Beautiful, but too dry. At least the winds will be light, which means existing or new fires won't spread especially fast. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Broken record weather again. A subfreezing dawn, a sunny day, a little milder, highs well into the 50s. 

Speaking of broken, the pattern of big fat, dry high pressure systems will finally begin to break. A little rain might come through Tuesday. One last big, fat high pressure might brush past us mid-week. 

It's beginning to look like a much wetter storm could, maybe hit us late next week. It's a long range forecast, so no guarantees that we'll actually get the rain. But at least there's hope. 

 

California Surfer Dude Is Unlikely High Quality El Nino Journalist As Pacific Ocean Swamps Coast

Blair Conklin, an unlikely and very good citizen 
journalist, seen here covering record tidal 
flooding Monday in Newport Beach California. 

Sometimes, reliable, related about and well-reported news comes from unlikely sources. Especially these days.  

Meet Blair Conklin, a surfer dude from southern California. He's straight from Central Casting. He's got a big mop of curly blonde, sun-bleached hair. 

What appears to be a perennial tan. He's got that cool dude California vernacular, at least a little bit, when he talks.  Even is first name fits the part. 

Conklin, a native of Laguna Beach, is an accomplished award-winning professional skimboarder and surfer. He's got a very popular YouTube channel called SkidKids, that has 4 million followers and mostly deals with surfing and California beach life. 

Lately, the southern California coast has been swallowed up by El Nino.  The warm water has stirred up numerous hurricanes off the Mexican west coast, sending battering swells long distance into California beaches. 

El Nino has also produced a Kelvin wave, which sharply elevates water levels along the California coast (It brings warm water, which expands compared to cold water.) 

El Nino also is starting to bring storms to southern California. This week, the Kelvin wave combined with unusually high King Tides have caused record flooding. 

And one of the best places to find information about this is Conklin's SkidKids YouTube channel. 

Conklin has been all over this story. 

Lots of media outlets have been covering the wave-battered homes, some of them red-tagged, the crumbling cliffs, the flooded streets and alleys. 

But our surfer Conklin knows his coast, the tidal patterns, how waves behave when they crash onto the coast, how the swells remove sand from the beaches to make the waves that much more destructive. 

The result is some of the best journalism connected to this slowly building California coastal disaster. Right there on his SkidKids channel. He knows the area, and he's good working with a cell phone camera and a drone. 

Conklin shows us how the waves are causing new problems, and worsening old ones. He shows us how abrupt, weird October tropical downpours can flood streets in an instant. He shows how high tide flooding gets around barriers and sand bags.

He even apparently broke some news. Earlier this month, CalTrans shut down one lane of a section of the Pacific Coast Highway in Laguna Beach. It seems the public was at first unsure why. Conklin then posted a video showing a large crack had developed on an embankment supporting part of the highway. 

Battering waves had eroded the base of the embankment. Conklin also followed the story as CalTrans put tarps over the embankment, hoping to prevent heavy rains from making the situation worse. 

The news over the past couple of days has been the record tidal flooding, caused by the Kelvin Wave/King Tide one-two punch. 

Earlier today, Conklin took us the the famed Balboa Peninsula in Newport Beach, where serious tidal flooding hit despite efforts to building barricades and sandbag walls. It's really a great in-depth video to help us understand what California is facing this fall and winter. 

Not all citizen journalists are that good, of course. They have agendas. They make assumptions. They don't know how to ask good questions. They don't know how to find good, accurate information. But every once in awhile, you get a good one like Conklin. 

I'll be relying on him all winter for weather news from California. Even if I am an old, landlubbing, inland Vermonter who doesn't know the first thing about surfing. 

 

Back To The Constant Sunshine In Vermont After Monday Clouds

It actually rained a little in St. Albans, Vermont 
Monday. Just a little. But it's back to the dry weather 
through next weekend. Perhaps a few light rain
showers Thursday night north, but that's it. 

 If you are somehow sick of sunshine, you must have enjoyed yesterday, unless you are in southern Vermont, where the sun stayed out for at least a decent part of the day. 

Far northern Vermont actually had a little rain during the day. Enough to dampen the ground. 

Here in St. Albans, we actually measured 0.03 inches of rain. Burlington had a trace - nothing measurable - so officially, the dry spell there goes on. 

This morning, we were back to the same routine. As dawn broke, skies were clear, temperatures statewide were below freezing.  

This clear sky trend will continue for the next few days, at least generally. But signs are pointing toward this sunny stretch ending, eventually. 

TODAY

As expected, the sun will stay out all day under blue skies. It'll be chilly, with temperatures holding the 40s. A steady north breeze will make it feel even chillier. Super dry air will make things feel especially crisp. 

WEDNESDAY

We're sticking with the forecast for a frigid start to the day, with lows across Vermont still expected to be mostly between 18 to 25 degrees. But the sunshine will draw afternoon temperatures back into the comfortable 50s. 

It might not be completely sunny. A weak disturbance looks like it might thrown some high clouds our way. Still absolutely no rain, though. 

THURSDAY

Another chilly start, another sunny day. Southwest winds will bring temperatures up to the low and mid 60s. This is a day we might have to really watch the fire danger. The dry spell, and all the fallen leaves, have raised the fire danger. The winds could spread any fires that start, so be particular careful. 

The next cold front is scheduled to come through Thursday night. It'll be very similar to yesterday's. Maybe, just maybe it'll have a tiny bit more oomph to it. That means northern parts of the state could eg a few paltry hundredths of an inch of rain. Probably nothing further south. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

The next big, fat high pressure system comes in. As a sign that this pattern might eventually break down, this big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big, quite as fat as the last few. Still, it will ensure more sunny skies.

It'll be a little cooler, but perhaps not as cool as today. We'll be back to subfreezing mornings and highs in the 50s. Same conditions on Saturday. Sunday could be a little warmer, with readings maybe in the upper 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At first, we might be in a battle zone between a last big, fat high pressure from Canada and a storm coming up from the southwest. This would be our best chance of rain since mid-month. It won't be huge, and there's still a chance the high pressure could deflect the storm to our south. So stay tuned.

If that misses us, we have a shot at another rain late in the week.  

September Was World's Second Hottest. Oceans Set Record For Heat, Portending Wild El Nino Winter

The world was hot again in September, the second
hottest on record. The eastern Pacific Ocean was 
especially hot, thanks to a record-breaking El Nino

The world had its second hottest September on record, continuing the global heat boosted by El Nino, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  

The data follows a trend of recent hot months, as most months this year have been either the warmest or second warmest on record.  

Climate change has a lot to do with it. But a record setting strong El Nino is further boosting worldwide temperatures.

As you'd expect, there were widespread areas of much warmer than normal temperatures around the globe. 

Obviously. the eastern and central Pacific Ocean was roasting, as that area is the epicenter of El Nino. 

Other especially hot areas were the southern and central United States, Mexico, western South America, parts the Arctic, southwestern and northeastern Europe, and large portions of Asia, western Africa, the Indian Ocean, and western and southern Australia.

Even during a month in which the world is practically on fire, you're going to have a few cold spots. Some spots in the Arctic and Antarctica were a little on the cold side. Also, some areas of western north America and southern Africa. Despite the cold spot or two in the Arctic, that region overall still had its hottest September on record. 

The world's oceans were hot. Really hot. 

According to NCEI's report: 

"For a fourth consecutive month, the global ocean surface temperature departure set a new record high, averaging 1.98 degrees F above average for September. This value represents the highest ocean temperature departure for any month on record, edging out the previous all-time record set only last month, August, 2026."

This is ominous. Such huge amounts of heat stored in the oceans, could help the atmosphere really go into overdrive during the next several months at least.  

With all that hot ocean water, tropical cyclone activity was above average. In September, the world saw 10 tropical storms, nine of which reached hurricane status. Or typhoon status, same thing. Six of these storms became major hurricanes. 

The eastern Pacific north of the equator, with its record ocean heat content due to El Nino, was super busy, to say the least. There, eight tropical storms formed in September,  tying a record for most during September. The tie is with 1994, 1997 and 2015. Eight of the storms ended up being  . Five of those were major hurricanes.   

The years 1997 and 2015 were big El Nino years, so that makes sense. 

One of them, Category 5 Hurricane Polo became the second most intense eastern Pacific hurricane on record. Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was stronger. 

On the other hand, El Nino causes strong upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those winds tore apart and tropical systems that tried to form. In September, four tropical storms managed to form - briefly - before being ripped apart. No hurricanes formed. 

This is the first times since satellites started keeping a constant eye on the Atlantic that no hurricanes formed by the first of October.  

UNITED STATES

The Lower 48 had its warmest September on record.
The middle of the U.S. was especially hot. 

The Lower 48 of the United States had its warmest September on record, NCEI reported. It surpassed the previous record set in 1998, which was another big El Nino year. So far this year, four months, March, July, August and September were the warmest on record for their respective months. 

The September heat was concentrated in the southern and central United States. The month was dominated by a heat dome that stayed pretty much put almost over the entire month. 

Eight states- Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas had their hottest September on record. 

A persistent heat dome occupied the southern and middle parts of the U.S. pretty much all month, accounting for the heat. There were corresponding dips in the jet stream in the western and northeastern U.S., so those areas were actually pretty close to normal. 

Oklahoma Center, near the epicenter of the heat dome, had a September that was incredible 11.5 degrees hotter than normal.  Thirteen days reached at least 100 degrees. Only four days during September in OKC failed to reach 90 degrees. 

Oregon had its 42nd coolest September on record, making it the only state in the nation that was definitely on the cool side. That's out of the past 132 Septembers. Here in Vermont, were also weren't anywhere near any records. NCEI said the Green Mountain State had its 40th warmest September out of the past 132 years. 

A band from the Desert Southwest to central and northern Plains were definitely on the wet side, while the Southeast was dry, the NCEI said in its national summary for September. 

Arizona and New Mexico had their second wettest September record.  Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Ohio also had one of their ten wettest Septembers. As an example of how wet the middle to the U.S. was, Omaha, Nebraska had 11.92 inches of rain in September. Normal there is 2.96 inches. 

On the other side. Arkansas was the driest of them all, having its eighth driest September. 

Here in Vermont, we had our 46th driest September out the past 132 years. 

Now that we're almost done with October, it's pretty much a given that this month will end up one of the hottest Octobers on record, if not the hottest. Record heat waves have hit large parts of Asia, Africa, the Mideast and North America in recent weeks. 

We'll see when the next NCEI report is released in mid-November. 

Actual Clouds Out There In Vermont Today Before Wall to Wall Sunshine Returns.

For a change, the remaining golden leaves on the trees
this morning were not lit up by sunshine. A weak 
cold front is creating clouds in Vermont, but
much more clear weather is on the way. 

Well, Sunday was as awesome as predicted. Wall to wall sunshine once again.  

Temperatures were remarkably uniform - all the reporting stations in Vermont had highs between 62 to 65 degrees. That's a little warmer than average. Just beautiful. 

The dry air is still locked in, so despite the warm weather yesterday, it still got below freezing last night, at least east of the Green Mountains. 

Today will be a transition day between the warmth and a temporary leap toward really nippy weather. Let's get into it. 

TODAY 

We have an interruption in the long spell of sunshine, but it won't last long. The weak cold front is coming in and it definitely has clouds with it. More so than another, weaker cold front last Thursday. 

But don't count on any real rain. Radar shows a band of showers across southern Quebec, including through Montreal.  The band was sinking south toward Vermont, but weakening as it did so. 

During the later morning and early afternoon, some of those showers look like they might hang in there, a little. The dry air is wrecking the rain, drying it up as it falls. That means maybe sprinkles in the northern Vermont valleys, and perhaps a few hundredth of an inch on northern Vermont mountain summits. 

The temperature forecast is a little tricky today, which is a change from previous days. When nothing is happening, it's easy to forecast temperatures. It's a reason why yesterday's temperatures exactly matched previous forecasts. 

But today, with a cold front coming through in the middle of the day, and variable clouds, there's room for error in the forecast. The National Weather Service is going for high in the 50s north, 60s north. 

TUESDAY

Another in a series of big, fat high pressure systems from Canada will be moving in. The cold air will already be in place when we get up in the morning. We'll start the day with temperatures in the 20s, maybe a couple low 30s in the warmer valleys. 

North breezes on the front side of the high will keep us quite chilly tomorrow. Highs will be only in the 40s, maybe a couple low 50s in the warmer valleys south. We'll be back to wall-to-wall sunshine again. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll start the day with the coldest morning of the year so far. Temperatures at dawn will range between 18 and 25 degrees for most of us. So yes, definitely chilly. But we're back to the same pattern we've been in. By afternoon, the combination of sun and dry air will bring us up into the low and mid 50s by afternoon.

THURSDAY

The same weather pattern continues. Like the last two big, fat high pressure systems, this one will weaken and sink to our south. That means warmer southwest breezes will bring us back up to near 60 degrees by afternoon. After another subfreezing morning, of course. Sunshine will prevail, of course. 

FRIDAY

Yet another in our long series of big, fat high pressure systems will come in after another weak cold front. Maybe accompanied by a few light showers again, but don't count on it. But the weather pattern is finally showing signs of ending. This big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big and fat as the previous ones. 

Still, it will be a rinse and repeat situation of what we've seen for the past couple of weeks. 

AFTER NEXT WEEKEND

As we always insist, long range forecasts are always iffy. But after next weekend, it's beginning to look like we'll have some chances of rain finally coming in. We need it, so we'll definitely welcome it if it happens. 

 

Arizona, Other Sections Of U.S. Reeling From Past Week's Storms. A Harbinger Of A Violent El Nino Winter?

People soak in a pool that was being
threatened by record flooding in
Pagosa Springs, Colorado last week

An early season storm last week prompted Arizona's first tornado warning in 16 years, produced at least three tornadoes, and set off gorilla hailstorms and flooding. 

At least three suspected tornadoes hit Arizona. The worst appears to be in Overgaard, a town of about 3,000 people roughly 140 miles north of Phoenix. 

Roofs of home were torn off and trees crashed through other roofs.  

In Phoenix, there were no tornadoes, but intense thunderstorm winds and large hail caused widespread, severe damage, especially in the northern half of the city. The hail broke countless windows, smashed zillions of car windshields and left vehicles hopelessly dented. Video showed parking lots full of cars destroyed by hail up to the size of baseballs. 

Strong winds also torn apart numerous trees. Phoenix easily suffered many millions of dollars in damage in just one storm. Maybe over $1 billion.  Another Phoenix hailstorm in 2010 caused $2.7 billion in damage. 

In southern California, violent storms also hit. Video captured swirling debris in Victorville, which makes me suspect at least a weak tornado. Other areas in the Los Angeles basin saw hail, flooding downpours and wind damage. 

Severe flooding hit the Four Corners region, the area where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah meet. The flooding began in earnest Wednesday and continued the rest of the week. 

Intense flooding also hit southwest Colorado.

Per CBS:

"Video shared with CBS Colorado shows a Pagosa Springs house inundated with floodwaters. All that can be seen is a small piece of the roof and the chimney."

 Other houses were inundated or being undermined by water. This is the second damaging flood in Pagosa Springs within a  year.  The San Juan river crested ago 15.02 feet Friday, compared to 12.8 feet during last year's flood. 

Hurricane, Utah had its second severe flood since August. One family had just moved back into their house three weeks ago after it was damaged by flooding, only to have it inundated again 

The area is known as a resort with popular hot springs. Almost all the hotels and tourists attractions are on higher ground and suffered little damage.

EL NINO INFLUENCE

It's beginning to look like a wild El Nino all and winter is already have an effect. It's unclear whether the violent weather is related to El Nino, but it is consistent with the pattern that's widely expected this winter. 

As NPR reports: 

"Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, says the severe thunderstorms are ruled by the large amount of moisture in the air. He says the moisture comes from the record-warm waters off parts of the West Coast, which are drive by an ongoing strong El Nino event and a recent marine heat wave (which he attributes largely to human-caused climate change)."

The West Coast and parts of the Southwest - along with most of the rest of the southern United States - is bracing for a terribly stormy winter, courtesy of the record strong El Nino. 

Already, another strong, wet storm looks like it might slam into the southern California coast, and then spread more heavy air into the Southwest in about a week. 

 

Wall-To-Wall Sunshine Continues In Vermont As Long Dry Spell Continues

Another gorgeous day in Vermont Saturday as seen here in 
South Burlington. More of the same today. 

The wall to wall sunshine continues, as Vermont's long dry spell continues. Yesterday was clear. Today will be clear. Mostly. We'll get into it in a bit.  

The very dry air ensures we have cold nights and warm days. Again, most of the time, anyway. 

After a cold morning Saturday, the sunshine brought temperatures right back up into the 50s.  Winds were light, so it was particularly pleasant. 

I started the day freezing in fleece and then by afternoon, I was down to a black t-shirt doing fall cleanup in the sun.

Then, by dawn this morning, everybody in Vermont was down in the 20s.  Temperatures will continue to yoyo, thanks to continued dry air and a cold front. 

TODAY

Those cold morning lows today were quickly being erased by the sunshine.  The big fat high pressure that was over us yesterday is a little weaker to our south, which means we'll see some light southwest winds. That will boost temperatures to near 60. With low to mid 60s in the warmer valleys. 

Because the air mass has warmed up, tonight won't be quite as cold as last night. Most of us will be in the 30s for lows. 

MONDAY

There's actually a chance of rain. Sort of. In spots. The next cold front is due during the day Monday. The air ahead of the cold front will be dry. The air behind the front will be dry. So there's no real supply of moisture to set off showers, like most cold fronts produce. 

The front might be able to grab the tiny bits of moisture in the air to set off some very light showers, mainly over the northern Green Mountains. In their forecast discussion this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington noted some computer models produce up to 0.05 inches of rain in some northern mountains. 

But with so much dry air, that 0.05 inches seems generous, the NWS says. More likely, a little rain might come out of the clouds, dampen some rocks on mountain summits. Then the rain will dry up in the air before reaching the valleys. 

Just to be on the safe side, the National Weather Service has a 20 to 30 percent chance of a light shower in northern Vermont. It will be cloudier than recent days. The front will be coming in from the north, so it'll  hold daytime temperatures up there in the 50s. Southern Vermont will be sunnier, and in the 60s 

TUESDAY

As I mentioned yesterday, the next big, fat high pressure system comes in, colder than the previous one. Despite another day of basically wall to wall sunshine, it's going to be much colder. Highs will be in the 40s, with maybe a few low 50s in warmer southern valleys.

Since this is colder air, get ready for a very cold Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYONDThe 

There's actually a chance that a few places in Vermont could have near record low, though the chances of that are iffy.  Montpelier's expected low is 20 degrees Wednesday morning, and the record low for the date is 19. 

Elsewhere. record lows are unlikely.  Burlington's expected low Wednesday is 25, the record low is 19.  St. Johnsbury is expecting a lot Wednesday morning of 19, the record low is 13.

We'll check later for updates to see if forecasters lower the expected minimum temperatures. By Wednesday afternoon, it will warm up to the mid-50s again. 

The big fat high pressure system will eventually make us mild again, with highs in the low 60s. That high will eventually go off to the east, possibly followed by another one next week. 

Through today, we will have gone nine consecutive days with no measurable precipitation That's not anywhere remotely close the record. In the spring of 1903, Burlington went 53 days without measurable rain. 

 

Relentless Clear Skies Lead To Very Nippy Vermont Morning, Much More Sunshine To Come

A few golden maple leaves were still clinging to the trees
 in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday as cool, breezy
and very dry weather continued.

 As expected, it was arguably the coldest morning of the autumn so far in Vermont.  

It looks like pretty much everyone in Vermont at dawn today was in the 20s.  I imagine the coldest hollows were in the teens. 

For example, Morrisville got down to 19 degrees, and I'm sure there were a few similar readings in the Northeast Kingdom. Burlington was down to 28, its coldest morning of the year so far. Barely. It was 29 degrees Thursday and Friday. 

The big fat high pressure system is sitting right over us today. That means clear skies and light winds for today. There were a few high clouds in southern Vermont this morning, but those should thin out even more as we go through the day. 

The sun is at a low angle but still strong enough to warm us up into the 50s. Dry air allows the sun to warm the air quickly. 

The light winds mean there also won't be as much of a bite to the air, either.  

I know this is getting boring, but bear with me. Every day is sunny, the weather just doesn't change, except for some variations in temperature. 

Anyway, as I noted, beyond today, we have plenty of sunshine, really chapped lips dry weather coming up for pretty. At least it's been easy to forecast. We've covered today, so let's get into the next few days. 

SUNDAY

Our big, fat high pressure system that's overhead today will begin to sink to the south and weaken a little. The end result will be another delightful day. I'll be below freezing again first thing in the morning. Then, with light southwest winds, temperatures will rise to the low 60s, which is absolutely beautiful ro this time year. 

It'll be another day of wall-to-wall sunshine, aside from some possible high, thin clouds late in the day. 

MONDAY

Another cold front will arrive, very much like the one we had on Thursday. That means a bunch of clouds will come in - we'll call it partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will go from light southerly to light northerly. High temperatures will depend on how many clouds come in, and when the cold front arrives. 

Dry air ahead of and behind the cold front means almost no rain. Unlike Saturday, there is a low chance of sprinkles or light showers, but it won't exactly be any real rain. n 

Forecasters are going for highs of around 60 degrees. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The next in a series of big, fat high pressure system will drift in from south central Canada. This one will likely be even a little stronger than the one that's sitting overhead today. Each one of these has been a little colder than the last. That'll probably happen this time, too. We're getting closer and closer to winter. We have to expect that, right?

Tuesday's highs look like they'll stay in the 40s, so a little cooler than yesterday, for comparison. After a frigid Wednesday morning, we'll warm up again. Not to toasty levels, just more comfortable again.  

Beyond that, you can't always count on forecast being right this far in advance. But early indications point to another cold front, again with very light rain or none at all, with another big, fat, high pressure system of clear, dry air to follow. 

I don't know when this weather pattern will break down. A week ago, I thought it would be around October 30. Now, it maybe looks like we'll wait until November 3 or 4 before noticeable precipitation falls. Who knows? Maybe it'll get postponed again. 

But this nice weather can't last forever. And we need the rain. Or snow, since we're talking November by the time any substantial storm tries to come through. 

Back To Rare, Long Stretch Of Blue Vermont Skies Through Weekend. Maybe Beyond?

Sunshine filters through lingering golden maple leaves
on trees yesterday morning in St. Albans, Vermont. A 
long, weird sunny spell will continue in the state
for several more days. 

What was that in the sky yesterday? 

Yeah, they were clouds as a new push of cool air blobbed its way into Vermont yesterday. 

Vermont is among the cloudiest places in the United States, especially as we get later and later into autumn.

 But you'd never know it. Days of sunshine before a period of clouds yesterday, then, coming up, another long string of blue sky days. 

Ominously, it hasn't rained in six days, and the dry weather is now looking like it will probably last through most of next week. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation continues to warn of a high fire danger today. And most likely beyond. 

Here's the usual daily details of the forecast.

TODAY

As advertised, the air has gotten cooler today. For now.  We started this morning with sunrise temperatures within a few degrees either side of 30.  With north breezes continuing, highs will only reach to within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. Other than the chance of a few small stratocumulus clouds, the sky should stay blue all day. 

SATURDAY

It continues to appear we'll have the coldest morning of the year across Vermont. Morning lows statewide should be in the 20s. Actually, we'll see  low to mid 20s in many towns away from the Champlain Valley. A few of the coldest mountain valleys could touch the upper teens. 

But be patient. Dry air heats up a lot faster than humid air when the sun is out. This is chapped lips dry air With light winds, because the big, fat high pressure system will be pretty much right tier head. Highs should get into the 50s, which is pretty normal for this time of year. 

SUNDAY 

What goes up must go down when the air is dry.  At night, dry air cools off faster than wetter air. So it'll be back below freezing when dawn breaks on Sunday.  But the big, fat high pressure system should be sinking a little to our south. 

That means we'll have light south to southwest winds, enough to boost our temperatures to around 60 degrees, give or take. So, this Sunday will be virtually a carbon copy of last Sunday. 

MONDAY

The next cold front comes in. The air ahead of, and behind the front will be very dry. Again. So we'll probably have something like we did yesterday.  Clouds will come in. This time, there might be a few isolated, inconsequential sprinkles. But no real rain. Winds will shift from light south to light northerly. 

How warm it gets depends on when the front arrives. For now, it looks like it could get to 60 degrees or so. That's an early guess.

REST OF WEEK

Yet another big, fat high pressure system will move in from southern Canada, so we'll go through the same routine we're going through right now.  Tuesday will be chilly, even nippier than today will be. As the cool air rushes in, winds will probably pick up, increasing the already high fire danger.

Then it will warm up a little during the rest of the week. Under those relentlessly sunny skies. 

Despite the dry weather, the sunny skies are quite a break from our usually overcast skies.  But remember, no great weather in Vermont goes unpunished. We'll pay for this with lots of storminess, eventually. 

Especially with a super El Nino raging in the Pacific Ocean. 

Clear Skies Continue In Vermont; Cooler, Gusty Winds, Then Clear, Calm Again; Things Really Drying Out

Another clear day yesterday, but the foliage in Vermont
is well past peak, fading to yellow and rust colored
hues, as seen Wednesday in St. Albans. 

 We had another crystal clear day Wednesday, the third day in a row of such weather. It was almost the fourth day, but there were just a few high clouds on Sunday, but it was basically wall to wall sunshine then, too. 

This very dry air means there's a daily big range between high and low temperatures. Normally, this time of year, the range between low and high temperatures is 16 degrees. 

So far this week, the daily range has been between 24 and 38 degrees. This cold morning/pleasant afternoons pattern will continue through the weekend, with maybe an asterisk or two. 

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon were about there same as on Thursday. But it was less breezy, so it felt warmer. The wind is going to pick up again, so grab that fleece for the next couple of days.

DROUGHT

The dry weather is  on concerning, of course. The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor was released this morning. Rainfall between October 11 and 16 reduced the size of the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. 

As of this morning's report, 14 percent of the state was in drought, compared to 41 percent the week before. But about 82 percent of the state is still either abnormally dry or in drought. I'm sure this will increase with next week's report, since no rain is expected. 

Let's get into the daily forecasts:  

TODAY

The first half of today will be a carbon copy of yesterday. We started the day below freezing statewide once again. Sunshine will make temperatures rise into the 50s. But, as we've been tracking for days, a reinforcing shot of cooler air is on our doorstep. 

Usually, this means a cold front with showers. But the air is so dry that we'll just end up with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. There might be extra clouds in the northern mountains. But no rain or snow flurries. 

Highs will probably be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. North winds will pick up this afternoon and evening, too, so you will feel the chill in the air. 

FRIDAY

The morning will start out  as cold or even colder than recent mornings. Lows most places will be in the 20s, with a smattering of low 20s in some of the deeper valleys. Under clear skies once again, it'll warm up rapidly. But it won't get as warm as recent days. Readings will peak within a few degrees of 50. 

SATURDAY

Yet another clear day. People with solar panels on their roofs must be loving this. The big, fat high pressure system that was over us yesterday and today will be gone. It will be replaced by an even  bigger, fatter high pressure system pretty much smack dab over us. 

We'll have the coldest morning of the year so far. Lows in most of Vermont will be between 20 and 25 degrees. Maybe some upper teens in the cold spots, upper 20s close to Lake Champlain. 

Winds will be pretty calm all day, and highs will get into the 50s. 

SUNDAY

More of the same. The big, fat high pressure will sink a little to our south, setting up a slight southwest breeze. So, we'll start the day below freezing again, but warm up to near 60 degrees. So, really nice!

MONDAY

Another reinforcing shot of cold air begins to arrive, with another very weak cold front. This one might actually be "strong" enough to produce a sprinkle. In a few spots. Maybe. Depending on the timing of the front, we might eke out a fairly warm day. For now, forecasters are calling for a high of 60 degrees.

Following that, another big, fat high pressure system. The long dry spells continues. 

Clear Weather Continues In Vermont, But We've Also Flipped To Cooler Air

Another crystal clear late autumn day yesterday in
St. Albans, Vermont. More of the same is coming
up over the next few days, but it will become 
a little cooler late week. 

 Monday and Tuesday were a great example of how two consecutive days can look exactly the same if you look out the window, but feel different if you walk outdoors. 

Monday here in Vermont was clear, balmy and calm, with highs in the 60s. Skies on Tuesday were crystal clear, too. 

But the air was cooler and there was a stiff northerly breeze. It was still a gorgeous day, but the air had a slight bite to it, especially if you were in the shade and exposed to those north winds.

The joys of autumn

This long stretch of sunny weather will continue, but it will get even cooler for the next few days. Big fat high pressure systems with dry weather and sunshine now look like they could continue over northern New England until Halloween. 

As always, let's get into the details

TODAY

Given the fact that Tuesday was cooler, it make sense that this morning was chillier than the night before, too. Most places in Vermont started the day in the mid and upper 20s.  Even the Champlain Valley was solidly on the frosty side. Burlington reported a low temperature this morning of 30. 

Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was at 18, ,which is the nippiest temperature we've seen around the region so far this autumn. 

We'll end up with highs this afternoon in the 50s, very similar to yesterday. The winds should be a little lighter than yesterday, so there might not be as much of a wind chill. 

Skies should once again be pretty much crystal clear or close to it. 

THURSDAY

We've been expecting a reinforcing shot of cooler air to come in, and that's still on the table. We'll start the day similar to this morning, with frost and freezes in most places. During the later morning and afternoon, north winds will pick up and temperatures will hold in the low the mid 50s. 

Though there will be a fair amount of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys, some clouds will come through, too. That's 'because the new shot of cool air will be led by a very weak cold front that will herald its arrival.

Since it's been so dry, and there's so many dried out fallen leaves on the ground now, we'll have to worry a little about brush and forest fires, since the wind would help push around anything that starts. So be careful out there!

FRIDAY

The coolest day of the week. You'll notice it! Another big, fat, high pressure system will slowly sink southward from Quebec. It'll be another chapped lip day, with very low humidity and lots of bright sunshine. North breezes will continue but will tend to diminish in the afternoon. 

Highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. Call it mid-40s way up in the Northeast Kingdom and northern Vermont hill towns to mid-50s in the lower Connecticut River Valley

SATURDAY

We'll start with probably the coldest morning of the year so far. Pretry much all of us will be in the 20s, with some teens possibly showing up in the coldest mountain valleys. The day will be clear once again with light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 50s,  Maybe some upper 50s in the warmest souther valleys

All this is courtesy of the big, fat high pressure system which will probably be right on top of us. 

SUNDAY

We do it again. Cold morning, milder afternoon under lots of sunshine. It'll be a little warmer than previous days with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

NEXT WEEK

Still kind of more of the same. Much like this week, Monday will be the mildest day of the week with temperatures up near 60 under sunny skies. A very weak cold front will introduce yet another big, fat, cool, dry, sunny high pressure system. 

The cold front on Tuesday might through a few clouds at us, with perhaps a sprinkle or mountain snow flurry, but that's really iffy. The sunny, dry weather will continue for a couple days. Now we're in the long range, so it gets uncertain. It's possible another cold front would come through late in the week with slightly more noticeable showers, but that remains to be seen. 

 The pattern still looks mostly dry at least until we get into the first few days of November. 

Monday Weather Over-Performed In Vermont Gorgeousness. Rest Of Week Provides Sun And A Cool Down

Autumn leaves on the trees glowed in the late afternoon 
sun in my St. Albans, Vermont yard yesterday. The
sunshine will continue all week, but grab the fleece
and sweaters. It will turn a little cooler. 

 Usually when I say the weather "over-performed" in Vermont, it means the storm was worse than expected. 

Yesterday was quite the opposite. The weather was definitely an over-performer, but decidedly on the gorgeous side. 

It was blue skies and wall-to-wall sunshine, as expected. But that sun had a little more oomph to it than forecast. It got warm. Burlington reached 67 degrees, compared to the forecast high of 63.

Montpelier also reached 67 degrees. St. Johnsbury and Bennington were close at 66 degrees. Rutland was even warmer at 69. You get the picture. Monday was an absolutely delight. 

The "heat wave" is now over, and a week-long cooling trend has started. But as long as you grab a sweater or some fleece, the rest of the week will be fantastic to view any lingering foliage under the sunshine, or to get going on autumn yard cleanup. As alway's we'll get into the details next.

TODAY

With such dry air in place, it was inevitable this morning would be chilly. (Dry air does not hold the heat at night nearly as much as humid air). Most of us started the day in the low to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the cold spots. Highs under the sunshine today will be in the mid and upper 50s, with a few low 60s in a couple spots in the Champlain Valley and valleys in southern parts of the state.

We'll have a slight breeze from the north today, which is a switch from the southerly breezes we saw yesterday. 

WEDNESDAY

Pretty much a carbon copy of today. A chilly, frosty morning yielding to high in the 55 to 62 degree range under the afternoon sunshine. 

THURSDAY

This is when that stalled storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast starts to make its move northeastward, further out to sea. That motion will help pull down a reinforcing push of cooler air. The north breezes will he a little stronger than then were earlier in the week. 

The reinforcement of the cool air might help create a vague cold front, which could produce a few clouds and maybe even a sprinkle in a couple spots. But there will be sunshine, too. Highs will reach the 50s again. 

FRIDAY

The computer models that had earlier suggested a very cold day have relaxed. But it will be the chilliest day of the week nonetheless. Big, fat high pressure will be just to our north and west, dominating the vast province of Quebec and eastern Ontario. We'll have cool northerly breezes. 

Under sunny skies, highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

By Friday, we'll have to start worrying about brush fire risks. The air will have been incredibly dry all week. Those fallen leaves will have dried out, too.  This will not be the week to burn away that brush pile sitting in the back 40.

SATURDAY

We'll start off really cold. There's a decent chance it'll be the coldest morning so far this autumn, with lows right down there in the 20s. Maybe a few low 30s right by Lake Champlain. At this point, it's too late to worry about saving gardens anyway. If you're still covering up your plants, good for you, but the effort has probably gotten Sisyphean. 

The day will be another sunny, cool one. This is a little long range so subject to change. At this point, though, it looks like highs should be in the 50s, with maybe some upper 40s in some northern Vermont hill towns. 

SUNDAY

Sunny and a little warmer. Highs in the 50s to around 60s. The brush and woodland fire risk will continue through the weekend. Thankfully, winds will be on the light side, which means fires might not spread too rapidly. Still, this weekend will definitely not be the one to play with matches, or be careless with your campfire or cigarettes. 

NEXT WEEK

The stalled weather pattern with the big, fat high pressure systems sitting over or near us should finally start to break down. Our next chance of any precipitation is probably later Tuesday. It's hard to say how much we'll get, but at this point, the rainfall next Tuesday night or Wednesday or thereabouts looks pretty lame. 

NOAA Winter Outlook Gives Vermont, Rest of Northern U.S. A Warm Winter, But Take It With A Grain Of Salt

NOAA's winter forecast has warmer than normal air,
in general across the northern U.S, and a tossup
across the South. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook last week, and it was designed by El Nino.  

In general, El Ninos tend toe provide the northern tier of states with mild winters, while the South is stormy. That's not always the way it works out, it's just a tendency. 

Right now, we have a record breaking super El Nino underway, so NOAA is going with the traditional El Nino game plan for the winter.

NOAA has the best chances of warmer than average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes and northern and central New England 

The chances of milder than average temperatures are less certain in the central United States, though NOAA is leaning that way. NOAA is also predicting near average temperatures for Florida and the far Southeast. And it's a coin toss between above and below average temperatures in the Southwest. 

NOAA's winter precipitation forecast has wetter than
normal conditions across the South and maybe the East
and dry spots in the northern Rockies and Great Lakes 

Also staying true to El Nino's blueprint, NOAA calls for a wetter than average winter over the south. Especially in southern and central California and the Southeast. The northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes lean drier than normal.

The East Coast is a bit of a wildcard, but NOAA is leaning wet there, too. Some of those southern storms take a turn north along the coast. It's unclear if this means a bunch of rain and mixed precipitation or snow. But if the temperature forecast is right, snowstorms won't linger long on the ground like last winter. 

If the NOAA forecast is right. 

Long range forecasts are notorious. tricky, and are at least sometimes inaccurate. RalphWeatherOBS on Twitter brought receipts. 

For instance, last winter, NOAA forecast the northern Rockies to be on the cold side and southern Rockies. The entire West turned out to be very warm last year, so in that region of the nation. NOAA was half right. 

For 2024-25, NOAA predicted the East Coast would have a warm winter. Instead it was near to slightly cooler than average. 

OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC

For what it's worth, the winter prediction map for the Old' Farmer's Almanac is confusing. They have northern and southeast New England as "mild, dry," while central and parts of western New England are "cold, snowy."  For one small region of the nation, you really can't have both, so I don't know what gives. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac breaks it down this way with a little more detail for the Northeast: 

Temperatures would be above  normal in the north, below normal south. The coldest period would be in early to mid January. Precipitation is expected to be below normal, though snowfall might be above normal south.  

THE FARMER'S ALMANAC

There's another almanac that's been around forever, The Farmer's Almanac that also does winter forecasts. 

This almanac seems to have El Nino in mind, too. They predict a number of coastal storms going up the Eastern Seaboard, much like the supposed "typical" El Nino winter.

Since it will be a generally mild winter, again, presumably due to E Nino, this pattern involves a lot of mixed precipitation and wet snow, according to this Almanac. 

Of course, Almanacs are just fun. They don't accurately predict the weather, no matter what they say.

El Nino is also no guarantee, as we mentioned above. The only thing I'm certain about this coming winter is that there will be surprises. 

 

Long Stretch Of Sunny Vermont Weather Continues, With Subtle Day To Day Changes

People strolling on a nice autumn day yesterday in 
Georgia, Vermont. Mostly sunny weather will 
continue all week, but there will be some 
subtle day to day changes. 

 Sunday surely cleaned up nice. 

Temperatures soared well into the 50s and winds were on the light side, making for a delightful day. 

As previously advertised, this begins a stretch of mostly sunny weather that could last at least until next Monday. With a few little hiccups thrown in. Those hiccups won't make much of a different, though. 

The overall pattern continues the same: Strong high pressure centered near northern New England and  Quebec, with strong low pressure spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That low pressure won't have a  direct effect on us, but might influence temperatures a bit. 

Also, the shape the big high pressure system will shift over time, influencing our temperatures. Eventually, a reinforcement of that giant bubble of high pressure will also lower our temperatures a bit. Eventually. 

Here are the dailies

TODAY

The start of the workweek will be the warmest part of this sunny spell. As is typical with clear skies this time of  year, the day started cold again - 20s in much of Vermont, 30s in the Champlain Valley. 

The high today is stretched out between that storm off the coast, and another one up by Hudson Bay. That will set up a southwest winf flow. Highs should get to near 60 in many spots, low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

TUESDAY

The high pressure will start to rebuild and strengthen over the Great Lakes as the storm near Hudson Bay takes off toward the Arctic. This will begin to set up a north wind that will gradually lower temperatures. This new arrangement looks like it could create a cold front of sorts that might spread some clouds around Vermont in the morning, but it should turn sunny. Highs should he well up into the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY

The center of the strong high pressure will have moved to southern Quebec by Wednesday. The cool north flow will continue but barely. The proximity of the high will mean light winds. It also means a cold, frosty start to the day, with lows in the 25 to 32 degree range for most of us. Highs should reach the 50s again. 

THURSDAY

The storm off the East Coast looks like it wants to contribute to a dip in the jet stream forming in far eastern Canada. That will eventually help tug a reinforcing high pressure system into Quebec.  All this might spread a couple clouds our way and hold temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

FRIDAY

The models are still disagreeing on how cold it will get with that trough in eastern Canada and the cold high pressure system coming in behind it. The most pessimistic computer models would hold daytime temperatures in the mid 30s a mid 40s and we'd deal with a stiff north with along with some clouds and sprinkles and flurries. 

Other models keep us partly sunny with highs in the 45 to 52 degree range. We'll wait and see how this resolves. But the chances of measurable precipitation are really low no matter which model you look at. 

SATURDAY

As it looks now, strong high pressure will be centered right overhead in Vermont, or close to it. If that happens, look for another cold, frosty morning, followed by another sunny day with highs at least in the low to mid 50s/

SUNDAY

The high might slip just to our south, turning the very light winds to a southwesterly direction. If that happens, we could pop up into the low 60s again under sunny 

BEYOND SUNDAY

It's hard to say how and when these persistent weather patterns break down, but we could start to see that early next week.  For now, the next chance of any rain would be around Wednesday, October 28

Parts of Southern California Burning Again, Hot Dry Winds Fuel Blazes

Homes burn in San Juan Capistrano 
during southern California wildfires
that broke out on Friday

 Some of you might be surprised to hear of wildfires in southern California. Didn't it just rain there?

Well yes, it did, sort of. But the heaviest rain was well south of Los Angeles.  The city itself received just 0.06 on October 12. Most places north of L.A. didn't receive any rain at all..

So when the hot, dry Santa Any winds started blasting through the mountains and canyons of southern California Friday, so did the fires.

As ABC7 In Los Angeles reported on Saturday: 

"Firefighters are battling blazes in San Clemente, Malibu and Azusa. While forward progress has stopped with the Peak Fire in Azusa, the Norte Fire in Orange County and the Bryson Fire in Malibu have forced evacuations."

The Norte fire destroyed six homes in San Juan Capistrano and forced evacuations there and in nearby San Clemente. Two firefighters were injured. 

The area was ripe for fires. The thick underbrush around the area hadn't burned since 1950. 

Though hot, dry, windy weather continued on Saturday, this will thankfully be a relatively short-lived bout with those kinds of conditions. 

The weather will be calmer and somewhat more humid starting today.  Showers are forecast in central and southern California Wednesday and Thursday, including in areas that received no rainfall last week.

Let's hope that's the start of an El Nino rainy season, one that could prematurely and thankfully squelche southern California's autumn fire season.  

 

Sunday Morning: A Cold Start, But Remarkably Steady, Calm Weather This Week. Maybe Beyond, Too?

Henry the weather dog on Saturday
found an area of relatively warm sunshine
and a sort of camouflage amid fallen
leaves a pine needles at his St. 
Albans home Saturday afternoon. 

And that's a wrap. 

Already. our brief cold snap was fading away as of dawn today. Especially in western Vermont, the coldest readings were at around 2 in the morning, rather than dawn, which is customary for a cold night. 

The core of the cold air had already departed and temperature began to rise in the early morning hours. Overnight lows were pretty uniform, in the low to mid 20s. 

The Champlain Valley was a tad warmer, with upper 20s a little after midnight before getting above freezing as the first light in the eastern sky began to emerge. 

In terms of snow, several towns, mostly in the Northeast Kingdom reported a trace of snow. Video from Stratton Mountain in southern Vermont showed a solid dusting of wet snow near the summit. As the sun came out during the day the summits shown white under the cold skies. 

Yesterday looked warmer than it was. Bright sunshine developed, especially away from the mountains. But a stiff northwest wind and temperatures holding in the low and mid 40s had a whiff of winter to it, though it was nothing compared to what is eventually coming. 

COMING UP

As previously advertised, we're in for a long spell of tranquil, mainly sunny and seasonable weather for this time of year. 

Such unwavering weather is rare in Vermont (If you don't like the weather in Vermont.....)  It's especially rare in the second half of October, when the weather pattern normally gets more active, with stronger storms and more aggressive pushes of warm and cold air as we rapidly descend toward winter. 

A stalled storm or subtropical storm will spin well off the Mid-Atlantic coast through at least Thursday. To the north, where we live, a corresponding high pressure system will stall just to our north, providing generally sunny weather. 

There might be a minor readjustment to this regime late week, when that storm will finally slip away into the Atlantic. Up here, a cold front will replace our high pressure system with an almost identical one which might then hang out for a few more days. 

The only major change in our weather - and it's uncertain - is that the new high pressure will temporarily cool us off more. 

The details

Today:   

Some cloudiness along and north or Route 2 will yield to sunshine. The rest of the state will enjoy war to wall sunshine. Highs in the mid 50s, so pretty nice

Monday-Thursday. 

Generally sunny. Highs in the 50s, with low 60s in the warmer valleys. Lows in 30s to low 40s. Some clouds might arrive Thursday, we're unsure of that yet. 

Friday-Saturday

The American computer  model really chills us off to readings not that far off from yesterday, which would mean highs in the 40s, with upper 30s Northeast Kingdom. The American model usually overemphasizes cold air in the long term, so I don't think it will be that bad. An early guess would put highs within a few degrees either side of 50s and lows within a few degrees either side of 30. 

I think the next chance of noticeable rain won't come until October 25 and the earliest and possibly as late as October 30.  

Winds Roared In Vermont Friday; Wintry-ish Cold Today; Super Calm Week Coming Up

A brief break of sun over Colchester, Vermont Friday
afternoon before showers arrived with those dark
clouds. The cold front brought much 
colder air to Vermont for today.

 Wow, in some parts of Vermont Friday, the wind really did howl. I see a report of 60 mph from Colchester Reef and several reports of gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range. 

Power outages in Vermont briefly spiked to near 3,000 at one point Friday. 

It was still windy out there this morning, and that state of affairs will continue all day as our brief winter spell has settled in. 

Rainfall was pretty variable across the state as much of it was pretty showery, giving the rainfall pattern a sort of hit and miss quality. Burlington and Rutland had about a third of an inch. Montpelier had 0.6 inches. St. Johnsbury was closer to a half inch. 

The overnight race between incoming dry air and incoming cold air was mostly won by the dry air. The cold air was a little bit slower to arrive than expected. So, snow accumulation is limited in Vermont, mostly just relegated to the really  high elevations.

My go-to check for snow at relatively high elevations is traffic cameras along Route 242 in Westfield and Route 105 in Jay. Neither camera showed any snow on the ground this morning. I'm sure the mountain peaks got a dusting, though. 

Some lower elevations likely saw snowflakes. I noticed Montpelier reported light rain with temperatures in the mid-30s for awhile early this morning. I'm sure that was snow a little higher up on surrounding hills

TODAY

The rest of the day will be partly cloudy, windy and cold. As of 8 a.m. temperatures statewide were within a few degrees either side of 40, and those reading will only go up  few degrees by this afternoon. 

Those wind gusts to 30 mph will make it feel much colder than that. And, to put the final nail in the coffin for Vermont gardens this year, temperatures statewide still look like they'll be in the 20s by dawn tomorrow.

SUNDAY

We transition to warmer weather, at least by afternoon. As we hit mid-afternoon, we should be up in the low to mid 50s, just a tiny bit cooler than average.

MONDAY-SATURDAY

The challenge for me all week will be coming up with things to write about regarding Vermont weather. A stalled pattern means high pressure will remain stuck over northern New England and Quebec, giving us a long stretch of dry, seasonable weather. 

Highs every day will be in the 50s to near 60. Lows will be in the 30s. There probably will be some fog in the river valleys during the mornings.  We might have to watch for some temperature inversions that could keep the low clouds and fog  going much of the day on some days, but so far, the chance of that appear pretty low. 

The only chance of rain appears to be maybe some sprinkles Thursday as a very lame cold front helps reinforce the high pressure nearby. 

Despite the rain we've just had, there might be an elevated fire risk later in the week as all those fallen leaves turn crispy in the dry air. 

Vermont Foliage Stripper Winds Howl Today; Still Expecting A Brief Winter Interlude Before Calm, Pleasant Week Ensues

My lawn in St. Albans, Vermont is suddenly littered with 
leaves as strong winds blew through this morning. 
Tomorrow will be much colder, with a wintry
feel to the air. But the cold wave will be over by Sunday. 

 The wind was howling outside mph windows here in St. Albans, Vermont, and the air was filled with flying leaves as our foliage stripping storm roars on. 

The Champlain Valley was taking the brunt of it, as gusts were well over 40 mph in spots. By 8:30 a.m. , the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued a wind advisory through 4 p.m. today, for gusts up to at least 45 mph.

At one point this morning, there were almost 1,000 power outages in the Champlain Valley. I'm sure a few more will pop up as we go through the day. 

It was breezy in other parts of Vermont, but not nearly as much as in the Champlain Valley.  Here's how the rest of today looks:

TODAY

The rest of the day will be shower, windy, especially in the Champlain Valley, and briefly warmer. Highs should get into the 50s to some 60s, mostly west of the Green Mountains. It looks like the showers might be  more concentrated in the mid-afternoon to evening time frame. There might even be a rumble of thunder.

No severe storms are expected here in Vermont, but the storm is dynamic enough to raise the risk of severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic States, extending as far north as Connecticut.

The storms's cold front should cross through Vermont this evening, causing those temperatures to drop and snowflakes to fly in the mountains late tonight. 

SATURDAY

Our brief introduction to winter is still on track. But just as we suspected, the intensity of it doesn't look like it will be as intense as some earlier forecasts 

Still, Saturday will be a shock to the system. Early day snow showers will dust the ground at elevations of above 1,500 feet, and the mountain summits will get maybe a couple inches of fresh powder. 

Highs will only get into the 30s in the Northeast Kingdom and 40s elsewhere. Probably low 40s in most places. The foliage stripping will continue as northwest winds rocket through with gusts to at least 30 mph most places. The wind will be more widespread than it is today, even if gusts won't be as strong as they are today in the Champlain Valley. 

Saturday will be no day for a foliage hike in the mountains. Underfoot it will be wet, with icy snow at higher elevations. Temperatures will remain below freezing all day as you approach the summits and wind chills up there will be in the single digits. 

It'll be a nice novelty, though, seeing the white capped mountains surrounded by splashes of color remaining as stick season begins to emerge.

SUNDAY

What cold wave?

The frigid blast will end as quickly as it began. Sunday will dawn cold, with temperatures across the state in the 20s. But under sunshine, temperatures should reach the low 50s at least. For reference, Sunday afternoon will be very similar to yesterday afternoon. So, yeah, pretty damn nice. 

NEXT WEEK

I don't need to pick out the weather on individual days next week, because it will be pretty much the same all week. The overall weather pattern will stall, much to our benefit.

A storm will spin and  not move all that much off the Carolina and Virginia coasts. Meanwhile, it looks as if a sprawling, huge high pressure system will linger over or near New England all week. That means sunshine most days, with pretty normal temperatures for this time of year. 

That means comfortable afternoons with temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s, and cool overnight lows in the 30s. Not a true Indian Summer because it won't be unusually warm. But close enough. 

We'll have light winds, too

Those light winds will be great for those of you who will be raking leaves. The job is so hard to do when the wind is howling, so next week will be a great break for that.