Saturday Morning Vermont Nor'easter Update: Wetter Forecast, Risk Of Minor Flooding Ticks Up

Latest rain forecast is heavier than yesterday's prediction,
at least across Vermont. Dark green areas will have
at least an inch of rain. Yellow depicts at least 1.5 inches
and orange at least two inches. New York State 
should have much less rain than in Vermont.

Our highly anticipated final day of May nor'easter was just moving  into Vermont as dawn broke today. 

As expected, we are in for a very wet Saturday. For those keeping track, this will be the 11th Vermont  Saturday in a row with at least some rain. 

This might well be the wettest of the bunch, though the storms of May 17 might still be the winners of the Saturday rain derby. 

The storm coming in is looking wetter, stronger and windier than we indicated in forecasts issued yesterday morning. 

The end result is a greater threat of flooding in Vermont than we thought before. Though any flooding later today and this evening would probably be fairly minor. Still it's worth taking seriously.

THE FLOOD RISK

The consensus is the store is going to head up through New Hampshire today.  The heaviest precipitation in a nor'easter usually falls just to the west and northwest of the center.  That track will tend to focus rain right over Vermont. 

Everyone in Vermont should see one to two inches of rain. A few places might get three inches. 

Flash Floods

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has
a slight risk of flash flooding in
Vermont today and tonight. That's a 
level two out of four risk levels. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will focus right along or near the Green Mountain chain the length of Vermont. Of course, that's where the steepest terrain is. Which makes runoff from heavy rain more problematic and flash flooding more likely. 

As such, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has increased the risk level for flooding from marginal to slight in Vermont. That means essentially that flooding would still be widely scattered and not widespread, but not as isolated as before. 

Most meteorologist don't expect super damaging flash floods. The storms of May 17 dumped torrential downpours over short periods of time, which is the best way to wash out roads and flood homes.

 That's why communities like White River Junction, Waitsfield, Warren and Killlington saw so much flood damage that day. 

We'll probably get about as much rain today as we did on May 17, but the rain will be spread out through mostly the entire day. It won't come down as hard as it did two Saturdays ago,  So it will be more difficult to get these great gushes of water roaring down hillsides.

But, the rain might come down heavily enough at times to mess with culverts, wash out steep driveways and erode the edges of some hilly gravel roads.   

River Flooding

Widespread flooding along Vermont's larger rivers isn't expected, but some waterways should come close to flood stage. 

As of this morning, none of Vermont's  rivers are forecast to actually hit flood stage, though in the end I wouldn't even be surprised if a few did achieve minor flood stage. So nothing devastating there. Places like downtown Montpelier, Johnson, Barre and Cambridge seem safe. But low lying roads could go under water again.

Some examples:

The Otter Creek at Center Rutland is forecast to peak at 7.2 feet, just under minor flood stage by Sunday morning.  The Mad River at Moretown, often a flood trouble spot, is forecast to peak at 5.3 feet, well short of the nine foot flood stage. I think that forecast is underdone, though the river will probably still remain below flood stage.

The Winooski River looks safe from flooding at this point, too. The Lamoille and Missisquoi are also scheduled to stay below flood stage. Nevertheless, the National Weather Service is still keeping a close eye on all these rivers, in the off chance there's an unpleasant surprise or two. 

This definitely won't be another Great Flood of 2023 or 2024 though, so you can relax about that. 

STRONG STORM

Storms, even nor'easters tend to be much weaker in the warm season than in the winter. Nor'easters thrive on sharp temperature contrasts, which makes them those windbags with lots of rain or snow.

There really isn't an enormous temperature contrast feeding the storm but there is more than usual for a May system.  Plus there's been a lot of energy in the atmosphere for the storm to work with.   As of Friday evening, the storm was forecast to have a central pressure of 984 millibars, for 29.05 or so inches.

That would break low pressure records for a storm at the end of May.    

You could tell this storm would be a strange powerhouse before it even formed. The ingredients for the storm were over the Ohio Valley yesterday,. That spun off an unexpected tornado in Kentucky that killed one person and injured about 20.

Tornado warnings blared in parts of the Mid-Atlantic States Friday afternoon and evening, including near Washington DC and Baltimore.

All this energy has not consolidated into the nor'easter that was heading into New England early today. 

Though thunderstorms are possible in eastern two thirds of New England today, they are not expected to be severe.

But it will get rather windy here for a late May storm, since the nor'easter will be so strong.  Gust could exceed 30 mph, especially on hill and in north/south oriented valleys. That shouldn't be strong enough to cause much in the way of power outages

However, the ground is so wet that the wind might topple shallow rooted trees that would be situated in mud instead of solid ground because of all this rain.

RAINY MAY AND RECORDS

 If the rainfall pans out as expected, most stations in Vermont will end up with one of the top 10 wettest Mays on record. 

We might also break rainfall record for today's date. Record rainfall for May 31 in Montpelier is 0.99 inches. The forecast total rainfall today in Montpelier is 1.33 inches,  so that stands a great chance of being broken.

In Burlington, the record rainfall for May 31 is 1.34 inches in 1998, which means there's an iffier chance of breaking today's rainfall record. The forecast rainfall in Burlington today is 1.17 inches. 

As an aside, that May 31, 1998 storm is quite memorable here in Vermont and throughout the Northeast and Midwest. 

That May 31, 1998 storm created one of the worst tornado and severe storm outbreaks on record in the Midwest and  Northeast. It started with a tornado that killed six people in Spencer, South Dakota. 

A severe derecho  blasted its way west to east across the entire Great Lakes region. Tornadoes spun up in in Pennsylvania and New York, One of them a strong EF-3, caused extensive damage around Mechanicsville, New York.

That same tornado continued on into Bennington County, Vermont as an EF-2 (very strong for Vermont. The twister traveled east along Route 67 through North Bennington, damaging houses and the campus of Bennington College, before finally dissipating two miles east of South Shaftsbury.

Thankfully, no tornadoes are expected in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast from this odd strong, weirdly out of season nor'easter.

Montpelier, Burlington and other Vermont cities are poised to have one of their top ten Mays on record, but we're unlikely to have THE wettest May on record. 

Before the rain started Saturday, Burlington had 4.97 inches of rain so far in May.  The wettest May was 8.74 inches in 2013, and we certainly won't have more than three inches of rain in Burlington today. But the 10th wettest May had 5.55 inches, so we should get to at least that. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Sunday is also looking a little worse than originally forecast, at least in northern Vermont.  A lobe of moisture coming down from Quebec from the departing storm will likely set off numerous, albeit rather light showers Sunday afternoon and night. 

Highs Sunday will only be in the 50s, and only near 50 in higher elevation towns in the north,  Unlike earlier forecasts, it now seems possible there will be some snowflakes on some mountain peaks, like Mansfield and Jay Peak. 

A sharp warmup to summertime levels is still expected in the upcoming week.  We'll have to watch for end of the week thunderstorms. With the wet ground, if those storms are slow moving or numerous, that could spell trouble.

It's too soon to say whether that will happen or not, so I wouldn't worry about it for now. 

Updates On Vermont's Very Soggy Saturday, The Return Of Summer, And "Phantom Hurricanes" That Might Not Be Entirely Phantom

National Weather Service forecast map for Saturday's
rain. Dark green indicates at least an inch of rain. Yellow
means at least 1.5 inches. 

A little more rain than expected fell in northwest Vermont Thursday. Not enough to make a difference, really, but some of us were surprised by brief heavier evening showers. But at least parts of the Champlain Valley were treated to a spectacular rainbow just before sunset. 

The rest of Vermont had very little rain yesterday, as expected,

Today is the calm before the next soggy storm. Most of us woke up to cloudy skies this morning. There were even a a few showers near the Canadian border. (It rained briefly here in St. Albans, Vermont shortly after 8 a.m. today).

But you will see more and more breaks in the overcast as the day wears on.  I suppose there could be a couple more showers, but they'd be light and isolated, No biggie.

SATURDAY:

Our soggy Saturday nor'easter is still on schedule. 

I mentioned in yesterday's post that the forecast track of the storm was "windshield wipering" back and forth between a track northward right along the New England coast, or more inland going northward across New Hampshire.

The forecasters yesterday were leaning slightly toward a more eastern track, though some models were still insisting on a more inland path.  An eastern path would have meant a little less rain in Vermont.

As of this morning, it's looking like the forecasts for the nor'easter to go right up through central New Hampshire on Saturday were the correct ones. 

That means expected rainfall totals in Vermont have gone back up. Right now - and this could still change a little - almost everybody in the Green Mountain State except maybe the immediate central and northern Champlain Valley will receive at least an inch of rain.

Cities like Burlington and St. Albans would still get a soaking with at least three quarters of an inch. Elsewhere in Vermont, some places will get an inch and a half, and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple spot clocked in at a little over two inches.

Flash flood guidance this morning says it would take 2 to 2.5 inches of rain within six hours to begin to produce flash flooding. However, it will probably take a good 12 hours or more tomorrow for even those few spots in Vermont to receive two inches of rain. 

So flooding is very unlikely in Vermont. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does put central and eastern Vermont  - along with most of New Hampshire and Maine -in a zone with a marginal risk of flooding on Saturday.  In this case, I think that just means there could be minor ponding on roads.

 Rivers and brooks and streams across Vermont will definitely rise and become swift again even if they don't go into flood stage. That means kayaking and such on them will be dangerous for at least a few days. Fishing enthusiasts should be careful not to fall in. 

Saturday's storm will add water to the already very damp Vermont soil, which could help set us up for flash flooding later if we get a lot of torrential thunderstorms in June.   Of course, we have no idea yet whether that will happen or not, so just put that on the back burner for now. 

SUMMER TREND

Sunday is June 1, the start of meteorological summer. For ease of record keeping, most climatologists regard summer as the period from June 1 through August 31,

As previously mentioned,  the first day of June will not feel like summer at all. Sunday will feature mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 50s to near 60, breezy north winds and maybe a few light showers. Brrrrr!  

There could even be a little snow again atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire.  I think the summits of the Green Mountains might be just a wee bit too warm for snow on Sunday. But not by much.  

But don't worry! Summer is on its way. And soon. 

We'll start a sharp warming trend beginning Monday. By mid to late week, we're up in the 80s for afternoon highs, and you'll start to feel the humidity in the air.  We might also start to see summer time afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday, but that's less certain. 

PHANTOM HURRICANES

This morning's GFS (American) computer models
shows a powerful hurricane hitting the Gulf 
Coast on or around June 10. I virtually guarantee
this WON'T happen, but the models MIGHT
be sniffing out some possible tropical
activity in the Gulf of Caribbean toward
the middle of the month. We'll see. 

For the past several days, I've noticed the American computer model known as the GFS keeps indicating hurricanes popping up toward the end of its forecast range, usually two weeks in advance. 

Sometimes these forecast hurricanes are near Florida, other times in the Gulf of Mexico, sometimes near Texas, sometimes going up the East Coast, like yesterday morning's run. 

This morning it has a powerful hurricane hitting Biloxi Mississippi on June 10, then dumping another epic flood on Helene-ravaged North Carolina.

Relax. It's not going to happen.  These GFS "phantom hurricanes" is a quirk of the American computer modeling. In late May and June especially, it keeps coming up with these "phantom" hurricanes  in the final days of its two week predictions. 

Still, it's a reminder that the hurricane season official starts on Sunday. And since the model has been so consistently popping off hurricanes in recent model runs, it's an indication that the models might be sniffing out some sort of tropical storm development somewhere in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico around mid-June.

If a tropical storm forms - a big if - it's very likely it wouldn't be an enormous hurricane, like the cataclysmic Helene or Milton last year. But it's possible - not definite - we could see some sort of soggy tropical storm or even Category 1 hurricane menace somewhere along the southern U.S. coast.

This sort of thing has happened before in June. In fact, Tropical Storm Agnes in June, 1972 ended up unleashing one of the worst floods and most deadly floods on record in much of Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia and Maryland.   There's no reason a damaging June tropical storm couldn't happen again.   

May Has Produced Some Dramatic Storm Videos, As Per Usual.

Cleanup starts after the devastating tornado in St. Louis
earlier this month. Photo by Brian Munoz via Facebook

Late April and May, living up to their usual stormy standards, has certainly produced some dramatic and sad moments across the United States.   

It's been busy and destructive this year, with particularly vicious, deadly storms striking St. Louis, Missouri and in Kentucky.  It's also been serious in other parts of the nation too.

This brings us to some videos of some of the worst, most dangerous and sometimes most tragic events of this spring. 

Following are some examples.

First,  a compilation of the tornadoes that hit Minnesota and Wisconsin May 15. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that

Drone video of London, Kentucky of tornado damage. You can see how the core of tornado grinded homes into tiny little pieces. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that

A harrowing news story of a family of seven in a London, Kentucky home that was picked up by the tornado with all of them inside and thrown across the street. Miraculously all seven just had minor injuries. Two next door neighbors died.  Again, click on this link to watch or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Another harrowing story of how a couple both lost arms while clinging to each other as the Kentucky tornado blasted through their house. Again, click on the link to view, or if you see the image below click on that:

Video follows the path of last week's tornado in St. Louis. Maps included show how densely populated the area that was hit was. Miracle only five people died in the city. Again, click on the link or if you see the image below, click on that:

Tornado and aftermath seen through a deputy sheriff's dash cam in Colorado. Click on this link or if you see image below click on that to view;

 

Wet Vermont Saturday Still On Schedule. All But Two Saturdays So Far This Year Have Been Precipitation-Free

A little morning sun graced this iris in my St. Albans,
Vermont gardens this morning before clouds moved
in, The gardens - and everyone else in Vermont -
were bracing for another wet upcoming Saturday 

 The weekend is coming up, and as long advertised, it's going to be a wet Saturday. 

Hell, the way it's been going, I wonder if we should just count on rainy Saturdays through the rest of the year.  

NEVER A DRY SATURDAY

As I've been reminding folks, this will be the tenth wet Saturday in a row with measurable rain, at least as noted in Burlington, Vermont. 

Well, technically ninth. Because on Saturday, March 29, it was snow, not rain. But it amounted to 0.65 inches of liquid equivalent, so we'll count it. 

Eleven Saturdays ago, March 22, there was only a trace of rain. The last time we got through an entire Saturday without a drop of rain was on March 15. Bonus, that day was warm for the season, running 25 degrees milder than  normal 

Still, even that wasn't a perfect day. It clouded up in the afternoon, and winds gusted to 48 mph.

The only other Saturday so far this year that was completely dry in Burlington, Vermont was January 25.  Three other dates, January 18, and February 1 and February 22, had just traces of precipitation. The rest had measurable rain and/or snow. 

THIS WEEKEND'S FORECAST

This photo was taken in St. Albans, Vermont on the 
last rain-free Saturday we had, March 15, 2025.

We're coming off of three gorgeous days in Vermont with an overcast Thursday.  It is cooler, and it will probably rain today.  Not much, and not all the time, so you'll be able to get things done outdoors. We even managed to see a little sun this morning in northern Vermont. 

A few places will just get sprinkles. Most of the rest of us will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. So really no biggie. 

After fairly grim forecasts earlier in the week, Friday is actually looking......not bad. 

The sun will be out some of the time, and there will only be widely scattered, brief showers at most. It'll get into the low 70s in quite a few places, which is about average for this time of year. 

Saturday

Then there's Saturday. Hoo boy!

I mean, I suppose there is good news.   We shouldn't have any flooding, aside from ponding of water in a few places and creeks and brooks that start getting swift again. But nothing to really damage roads or buildings. There won't be thunderstorms either, so no worries about hail or high winds like we had on Saturday, May 17.

But it will be a soaking wet day, with our next out of season nor'easter.

Forecasts still vary as to where the swaths of heaviest rain will hit. 

Official forecasts this morning have trended east, but that is uncertain because predictions have been windshield wipering between a storm track along the coast, or much closer to Vermont with storm blasting northward through New Hampshire .

Those differences in computer models had not been resolves as of this morning. In a sense, it doesn't really make a difference because Saturday will be a wet one in the entire state of Vermont regardless.

Right now, forecasts are going for a little over a half inch of rain in the Champlain Valley and three quarters to an inch across central, eastern and southern Vermont. 

If the storm goes inland  more, the rain totals would be higher from the Green Mountains west, with even the Champlain Valley getting an inch. 

The timing is such that you won't get a break in the rain all day.  Some of our recent rainy Saturdays have at least had a few hours here and there in which it wasn't raining. It looks like this time around, it'll be raining when you get up in the morning. It will still be going at lunch time, and going still at the dinner hour. 

Too bad, because a lot of outdoor weddings and other events happen this time of year. 

Sunday

Sunday will be the better of the two weekend days, but that's not saying much. First of all, the weather won't exactly be screaming "summer!" Not with highs in the 50s to around 60 in most places. That's a good 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year.

Add in a stiff northwest wind and it will feel even chillier. It will also be mostly too completely cloudy with light but chilly rain showers roaming around. 

Summer Comes Back

But never fear! Summer has NOT been pre-empted for the year. Monday will also be chilly for the season, but not as bad as Sunday with highs in the 60s.  Tuesday will bring us near average temperatures around 70,

After that, next week continues to look warm and moderately humid. It doesn't look like we'll have anything insanely hot, but it will feel like summer, which is nice!

No word yet on what things will be like on Saturday, June 7, which is the next Saturday after this weekend's. Long range forecasts so far offer no help or clues as to what will happen then. 

But you know our tradition of Saturdays and rain by now....

 

ANOTHER Out Of Season Nor'easter About To Strike Vermont/New England. On Saturday, Of Course!

Forecast weather map for Saturday shows 
another rare May nor'easter over New England
the second one this month. Only two 
percent of all nor'easters hit in May, at least usually

Historically, only about two percent of all nor'easters strike New England in May.  Nor'easters are creatures of the winter.  

However, we're about to be hit by the second nor'easter this month. Go figure.

This one will come through Saturday, which of course will by far make Saturday in Vermont the wettest, gloomiest day of this week. It will also be the tenth Saturday in a row with rain.  It's a Vermont tradition!

BEFORE WE GET THERE

Today will be the last truly nice day for awhile, but most of the upcoming days, with the exception of Saturday, won't be a total loss.

It got up to 82 degrees in Burlington yesterday. Summer warmth, but the humidity was rock-bottom low, so it felt pleasant. 

We'll do it again today, with highs at similar levels. Sunshine will tend to fade behind high clouds this afternoon, but it will still be a wonderful day to get outdoors.

Tomorrow, not so much. It should be cooler under a lot of clouds. Showers will roam around Vermont, especially in the afternoon. They won't be heavy, only depositing maybe a tenth to at most a quarter inch of rain.

With the clouds, it'll be noticeably cooler, rising up to only the 65 to 72 degree range.

Friday looks better. At least there will be some sun.  There is a risk of showers, but they should be light and won't last all day, Temperatures should pop back up into the 70s for many of us

SATURDAY NOR'EASTER

Then we get into Saturday. Our nor'easter. If current forecasts hold, it'll pretty much rain all day. It could come down hard at times. It very likely won't be enough to cause flooding, but it will keep our ground super saturated. If there's any flooding, it would be very widely scattered and quite minor. Definitely no big flash floods and damage like we had on Saturday, May 17 with those severe thunderstorms.

We won't even hear thunder with this nor'easter

If this were winter, the storm would take a perfect track to give us a huge snowstorm, But it's the very end of May, so rain it is!  Unlike last week's nor'easter, it won't even be cold enough on mountain summits for snow.

Still, it will be cold for this time of year for us valley dwellers, with highs only near 60.   

This nor'easter will also be "better" than the last one for another reason. It won't linger around obnoxiously for days like last week's storm did. It'll zip on through, and be pretty much out of our hair by later Saturday night. 

BEYOND SATURDAY.

The nor'easter will be somewhere around central Quebec Sunday, whipping chilly north winds and showers down on us during the day. So it will be quite a chilly first day of June, with highs only in the upper 50s and low 60s.  Those showers should be light, but perhaps frequent, though it won't rain all day. 

The storm will be further north Monday, but still close enough to keep it chilly for June and give us the risk of some scattered light showers.

But after that, the nor'easter will be a memory. Forecasts of course are iffy in the long term, so we can't get into specifics. But it does look like we're in for a dramatic warm up starting Tuesday and continuing on for the rest of the week. 

Memorial Day Sunshine Graced Us As Forecast, But This Is Vermont, So.....

Now that the sun is finally out, my bearded irises are 
just starting to bloom while the peonies are finally
budding and showing potential. Today and 
tomorrow should bring plenty of sun to 
Vermont before a long showery spell begins again 

Memorial Day in Vermont turned out to be as bright and sunny and warm as promised - even a few degrees warmer than forecast. 

Burlington got to 75 degrees as opposed to a forecast high of 70.  

It's May, 2025 Vermont though, so it had to rain somewhere. A few showers developed, mostly in the Green Mountains as winds built up enough clouds there to create showers. 

I saw on social media that after a beautiful day, it started raining in West Rutland, for instance, though that rain quickly vanished after just a few minutes.

TWO NICE DAYS!

Today, all of Vermont stands a good chance of getting through the entire day without rain. It was another chillier than normal start of the day, with temperatures in the low to mid 40s at dawn. Montpelier and Bennington checked in at 39 degrees.

Despite the soggy ground beneath our feet, the atmosphere over us is very dry.  Dry air heats up fast when the sun hits it, so temperatures were rocketing upward this morning. It'll get into the 70s pretty much everywhere in the state. Parts of the Champlain Valley might flirt with 80 degrees, so that's a welcome touch of summer.

We do it again one more day on Wednesday.  Technically, the day might not be rain free as a few showers might or might not arrive in western Vermont just before midnight Wednesday. 

However the day itself should feature lots of sunshine, though it will tend to fade a little behind high clouds during the afternoon and evening.  We'll even be a couple degrees warmer than today's expected highs. 

I saw one forecast that calls for 83 degrees in Burlington Wednesday. We'll see if it gets that warm or not, but even if we fall short, it will be a balmy day. 

BACK TO THE RAIN

Then it's back to the usual cool, rainy weather as we close out May and enter June.

We're in for another long, showery spell with cool temperatures again. A few welcome differences: We won't get as much rain, it won't rain constantly, and it won't be nearly as chilly as it was last week. 

We'd have highs mostly in the 60s instead of 40s to near 50, so that's more reasonable, at least. And no snow anywhere in Vermont this time! 

In fact, if current forecasts hold, Friday might not be too bad a day, with just a few scattered showers and some glimpses of sun.

Before we get there, it looks like Thursday might bring quite a few showers. Although if a new storm takes hold off the coast of New England, it would actually pull moisture away from us and it wouldn't rain as much or as frequently Thursday as currently in the forecast. 

Either way, Thursday's rain will amount to a quarter inch or less, so not a super soaker.  

Saturday is coming up, so it will probably rain. That's the Vermont tradition this year. We already have nine consecutive Saturday's with rain under our belt, so hell, let's make it ten!  If current forecasts hold, Saturday would be the wettest and possibly coolest day of the stretch, which tracks. 

After that, it looks we'd have gradual improvement, but Sunday and Monday would still be cool for the season. With an ever-present risk of a shower. 

If you want a glimmer of hope, there are (very) uncertain signs that the weather could turn briefly very warm, even hot and humid for a few days toward the middle and end of next week.  No promises, since such long range forecasts are notoriously unreliable. But it's something to hope for if you like summer weather. 

Tornadoes Getting The Spotlight This Year. But Hail Is Causing Even More Damage

 Tornadoes have been in the news a lot this year. 

Serious hail damage to a home in Wylie, Texas back
in April, 2016. Hail is one of the leading causes of
weather-related damage in the United States.

And no wonder. There have been 1,007 tornadoes in the United States through May 26 this year.

Sixty-two Americans have so far died in twisters so far this year. So you can see why tornadoes are a BIG DEAL.

As expensive as the tornado destruction has been - and it has been expensive - there's a severe weather phenomenon that's been happening a lot this year. That would be hail. 

Hail is usually one of the most expensive type of disasters yearly, and this is no exception. 

Tornadoes, as horrible as they are, have fairly narrow damage paths. Some are as much as mile wide, but most are much less than that. Tornadoes can travel over dozens or in rare cases hundreds of miles, but usually the damage path is only at most a few miles. 

Hail storms, on the other hand, usually cover a much larger footprint of real estate. 

Hail very rarely kills people and usually doesn't completely destroy a house. But hail damaged roofs and sometimes punctures through them. Hail breaks windows, hopelessly dents or shreds siding, damages and destroys cars, trashes landscaping and decimates crops. 

Especially in cases in which hail punctures roofs, homes can suffer severe water damage. (Torrential rains usually accompany the hail).

On top of all that, hailstones have more and bigger targets to inflict harm. Over the past few years, cities - including in the hail-prone Plains, Midwest and parts of the South - have sprawled outward. These metropolitan areas have miles and miles of suburban housing developments surrounding them. 

It used to be the chances were a bad hailstorm would miss a city since it was a small target. Now, not so much. As a result of all these factors and more, hails causes up to $15 billion in damage annually.

The insurance industry is taking notice. 

As NPR reports, insurance rates are up 35 percent from a few years ago in Kentucky and Nebraska  Rates are up 34 percent in Arkansas 32 percent in Minnesota and 27 percent in Texas, Colorado and Iowa.

Hail damage isn't the only reason these rates went up but it's certainly a factor. .Like in other types of disasters hail its prompting insurance companies to cut back on coverage and the costs the storms incur.

Per NPR:

"They're going to scale back coverage primarily on the roofs,' said David Marlett, managing director of the Brantley Risk & Insurance Center at Appalachian State University. He said they will now cover the value of a damaged roof rather the cost of buying a new one. "And they're going to attempt to increase rates to match the risk."

The jury is still out on whether climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of hailstorms, There is preliminary evidence that a warmer climate could produce larger hailstones. The larger the hailstones, the more damage they cause. 

I even imagine there will be insurance claims for hail this year in Vermont.  Hailstones in Vermont are usually too small to cause much damage, but sometimes there's exceptions.  Saturday May 17 was one of them. 

Hail up to two inches in diameter - a little bigger than golf balls - struck parts of southern Chittenden County, especially around Hinesburg, St. George and Richmond. 

I'm sure those caused at least some damage.

Videos:

Hail crashes through skylights of a Texas home earlier this year. Click on this link to view, or if you see image below, click on that.

Hail crashes through skylights at a Rice Lake, Wisconsin Walmart in July, 2023. As always click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Similar but even worse scene inside a mall as hail crashed through skylight in a Wyomissing, Pennsylvania shopping mall in 2014. Again, click on this link to view or if you see image below, click on that. 

Chaos in a home as hail crashes through windows in Carter Lake, Iowa on August 18, 2011. Again, click on this link or if you see the image below, click on that: 

A Memorial Day Relief From The Vermont Rain. At Least For Now

The sun shines Sunday morning on this St. Albans
lilac blossom for the first time in days. The leaves
and flowers were still wet from week of rainy weather
A welcome break in the weather starts in earnest today.

After a month that feels like it was designed by someone named Sasha Royale Payne Diaz (sound it out), we're getting a break in the weather, just in time for Memorial Day.  

The sun will be out pretty much all day. Sure, a few clouds will hide the sun from time to time, but those clouds will be mostly sky decoration, not a menace.

Given that it is May, 2025, there's still a remote chance of an isolated shower. But anyone unlucky enough to receive them will only get a very short, light dousing of rain. 

Even better, Tuesday and Wednesday look great, too!  Enjoy it, because it's back to the showery grind on Thursday. 

More on that in a bit 

MEMORIAL DAY CLIMATOLOGY/HISTORY

After a  morning low this morning of 45 degrees, the high temperature today in Burlington is forecast to be 70.  That's a little cooler than the average of a low of 50 and a high of 71, but it's pretty close. 

As always, every year brings different weather to the Memorial Day table. Some of the past Memorial Day extremes, as follows, come from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

Hottest: 92 degrees, May 30, 1929.

Coldest: 28 degrees, May 30, 1961

Coldest high temperature 47 degrees, May 26, 1930

Rainiest: 1.60 inches on May 30, 1916.

According to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book, the worst Memorial Day weather came on May 30, 1884. Snow fell on the state, accumulating to two inches in Lunenburg. In Randolph, snow covered the flowers that had been placed on veterans' gravestones. 

Last year's Memorial Day brought us a warm, windy day.  It was so windy - gusts exceeded 40 mph - that there were about 2,800 power outages in northwest Vermont. A wind-driven brush fire broke out along Route 2 in Colchester and South Hero, but it was quickly contained by firefighters, along with a well-timed shower that arrived as firefighters were getting a handle on the blaze.  

Those rain showers turned heavy in the evening, dumping 0.82 inches of rain on Burlington, So last Memorial Day's weather was active. This year, not so much, which is a huge blessing. 

Given the finally sunny weather and the fact that it's the unofficial start of the summer season, the temptation is there to go to the beach or take your boat onto the water.

Be aware the water is still extremely cold this early in the season. Hypothermia can quickly set in if you flip out of your kayak or canoe in the lake. At the very least, wear a life jacket. 

Also note that Vermont river and streams are running high with swift, unpredictable currents from all the rain we've gotten, so it's easy for kayaks to flip over on those rivers, and then the kayak and the person in the water can quickly get swept downstream. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has gone so far as to issue a special weather statement warning of the cold water dangers

Maybe wait until later in the summer when the water is warmer and hopefully calmer?

RETURN TO SHOWERS

Pesky upper level lows this month kept stalling in or near New England.  Those provided the seemingly endless  days of damp, showery cold.

Guess what? Another such upper low will set up later this week. That means showery weather again starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend, 

It won't rain all the time, but there will always be a good chance that it will. It's hard to time out precisely when it will rain each day, but the showers and possibly garden variety thundershowers will be most likely in the afternoons and evenings. 

This upper low will bring temperatures back below normal, but it won't be nearly as cold as the last episode, which kept daytime readings in the 40s across parts of Vermont for five out of the six days between May 19-24.

This time around, daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s to near 70 Thursday through  Sunday, instead of the normal mid-70s for early June. 

The upcoming rain should be light, and not nearly enough to set off any flooding. 

Weird Bright Light To Appear Over Vermont Today (We Hope)

The way it used to be.  A deep blue sky, with a few
puffy clouds as decorations, in Georgia, Vermont on
July 28, 2021.  This used to happen quite frequently
in Vermont but lately we've seen none of this.
Thankfully, the sun will make a grand appearance,
at least for a little while, this week

We awoke in Vermont to another gloomy morning this Sunday, with overcast and patches of fog.

At least it stopped raining in most places. At least for now. 

Given the conditions over the past week or more you might be alarmed at what you will see today. I'm here to assure you there's nothing to be afraid of. 

Later this morning or this afternoon, many of us will see a blinding light in the sky.  Don't worry, as long as you don't look directly at it, you won't get hurt. 

The rare phenomenon you are about to see is called the sun.  It's very common in most other parts of the world, and we used to see it frequently here in Vermont.  You just might not remember since it's been since May 16 since many of us have seen even glimpses of it. 

You'll notice this bright light - the sun - has a warming effect. Instead of being in the 40s to near 50 all day, this sun will bring temperatures into the 50s to near 60.  That's still much cooler than normal for this time of year, but it's a little better than it's been.

The ever-present chance of showers in Vermont will remain.  Not everyone will get them. The best chances of showers are in northern and western Vermont this afternoon and early evening.

MONDAY AND BEYOND

That bright light in the sky sun will assert itself even more on Memorial Day.  Much of the day will be at least partly sunny.  Temperatures will rise further into the 60s, which is only slightly cooler than average for this time of year. 

There is a low, but not zero chance of a brief shower.  You can't escape 'em. Most places won't see them though. 

Tuesday and Wednesday look great! Temperatures should get well into the 70s both days, which is near or very slightly warmer than normal for a change. Both days should feature quite a bit of sun. At this point the chance of showers both days is nearly non-existent. 

SATURATED

We should thank our lucky stars that no big, long-lasting downpours are in the offing for the next few days. The ground is so soaked right now that it would only take roughly two inches of rain in six hours to set off flash flooding. 

That amount of rain in that time period happens fairly frequently during bouts of summer thunderstorms.

Relatively dry weather until at least Thursday means that - hopefully - by the end of the week, the ground will have dried sufficiently so it would take a little more rain than that to set off an flooding.

The forecast is uncertain for the end of the week but it looks unsettled. I don't know yet of the rain will start Thursday night, or postpone until Friday or even Friday night. The computer models are disagreeing.

At least for now, those computer models are mostly agreeing that the end of the week rain shouldn't be torrential enough to set of any flooding. 

But as always, stay tuned for updates.

Vermont Gloom And Cold: One More Awful Day, Then Gradual Improvement

Near the summit of Killington, Vermont on May 23, 2025

Everybody's talking about how gloomy and cold it's been in Vermont lately. 

For good reason. 

It's been snowing on mountain summits for two days. Just like it did on a cold day last week. I don't remember the last time it's been overcast so often in May. Even many of the days it didn't rain much were cloudy. 

And it's been cold.  Social media is full of people remarking the they had to turn on the heat, fire up the wood stove and dig out the winter clothes they just put away for the season. Today' is the fifth out of the past six days the heat's been on in my St. Albans home.

Henry the weather dog insists on curling up right up against me in bed at night to ward off the chill.

Montpelier on Friday had a record low high temperature of 47 degrees. Four of the last five days have had highs in the 40s.  Today probably won't make it to 50 degrees there, either. This at a time of year the temperature should be near 70 degrees.

So far in Montpelier this month they've had 6.16 inches of rain. And counting. Woodstock, Vermont has been deluged with about 7.5 inches of rain so far this month. In Burlington this month, only five days have  been rain-free.

When will it all end?  Not today!! 

TODAY AND BEYOND

If you liked the weather Friday you'll love today. It's more of the same.  A dark, dank overcast. Frequent bouts of light, annoying, cold rain. The only difference from Friday is the wind will pick up a little, making it seem even chillier.  

On the bright side, the atmosphere will warm up a little later today so it will finally stop snowing on the Green Mountain summits. I wouldn't suggest a hike today, though up those frigid, muddy mountains, 

But there's hope. The weather pattern that has kept stalled storms near us is slowly beginning to break down. 

On Sunday, the pesky storm that's been stalled near Maine will have moved a little further east. At least the weather will improve some.  Clouds will thin and the sun will come out at least every once in awhile. There's still a chance of showers, but they will be few and far between.  Temperature will get up near 60 degrees. That's still cool for this time of year. But at least it's better.

Memorial Day features even more improvement.  We should see a fair amount of sun.  Yes, there's still an outside chance of a shower, but they'll be few and far between, light and brief. More importantly, temperatures will rise to near 70 degrees.  That will be the first seasonably warm day since May 17.

Even better, for now, it looks like it will get into the 70s pretty much every day next week. There's not much of a chance for showers until later Thursday and Friday.  And the storm toward the end of week does not look all that impressive.

The weather pattern does favor another upper low getting stuck near New England in the final days of May and the opening few days of June.  But that might or might not happen. If it does, it won't be as cold, rainy or intense as the stuck storms we've had lately.   

NOAA Says Hurricane Season Is Going To Be Busy Again

Powerful Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico
last October on its way to devastating parts of
Florida. Forecasts predict another busy hurricane 
seasons in 2025. The season start June 1

Chances are we will have another busy Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA announced Friday with their annual spring hurricane forecast.

The NOAA forecast is for 13 to 19 named storms; six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes during this season, which officially begins June 1. 

Major hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 111 mph.  

The average season has 14 named storms, seven of which develop into hurricanes.

NOAA's forecast is actually a game of chances. They give a 60 percent chance that this season will be busier than normal, a 30 percent chance that it will be close to average and a 10 percent chance it will be on the light side. 

At least in recent years, "normal" hasn't really happened, Every Atlantic hurricane season has produced more storms that average, a standard based on data from 1990 to 2020, reports CBS News. Four of those season only produced two or three major hurricanes, which is at or slightly below normal for the particularly strong storms. 

REASONS WHY

 Several factors went into 2025's forecast for above normal activity.

Neither El Nino or La Nina is going on in the Pacific. These two phenomenon affect ocean temperatures off the west coast of South America and have worldwide effect on the weather. 

An El Nino tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes because it creates stronger upper level winds over the areas of the Atlantic where hurricanes develop. Those strong upper level winds tear apart the thunderstorms that are essentially baby hurricanes, preventing them from developing. 

The neutral conditions in the Pacific mean those strong upper level winds in the Atlantic are less likely in the late summer and fall, so tropical storms would have a better chance of developing.

There's warmer than average water in most of the areas where hurricanes tend to develop. Warmer water is jet fuel for hurricanes, helping them develop and get stronger. Though this year the water isn't quite as hot as it was in 2024, which proved to be a hyperactive hurricane season despite an odd lull in activity during August.

That might mean 2025 might be busier than usual, but not insane.

Finally, monsoon activity in West Africa is forecast to be above normal.. Disturbances coming off west coast of Africa emerge into the Atlantic and sometime develop into hurricanes. The more of these disturbances that head into the Atlantic, the greater the chance that some of them will develop into hurricanes.

OTHER FORECAST

The closely-watched Colorado State University hurricanes season forecast also call for an above normal 2025.

Their forecast, issued April 3. predicts 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The University will offer an updated seasonal hurricane forecast on June 11

Ominously, Colorado State says there's an above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline in 2025.

We're already had an unusually high number of major, destructive hurricanes hitting the United States in recent years.

They include hurricanes that cost $1 billion or more like Harvey (Texas) and Irma (Florida) in 2017;  Michael (Florida), 2018 Laura and Zeta (Louisiana) in 2020; Ida (Louisiana) 2021; Ian (Florida), 2022; Idalia (Florida, 2023) and Helene and Milton, (both Florida), 2024.

As you can see, Florida in particular has been especially punished in recent years. So the prospect of more major hurricanes hitting that state has to strike a nerve, 

Forecasting where hurricanes will go before the season starts is exceedingly difficult. Meteorologists can detect patterns that could tell where these storms are a little more likely to go, but all kinds of factors can make that happen, or make that not happen. 

Though hurricane season starts June 1, the storms are usually relatively infrequent until August hits. (In some years, tropical storms can form before June 1) In the short term, no tropical storm developing is in the forecast for at least the next seven days.  

FEMA Is AWOL After St. Louis, Kentucky Tornadoes

Crews and volunteers start cleanup in front of badly
damaged homes in St. Louis in the wake of last
Friday's big tornado. FEMA has been notably absent
from both St. Louis and the Kentucky
tornado disaster zone.

 The Trump administration has vowed to get rid of FEMA, but officially, it still exists.

But apparently FEMA is in no hurry to help after the latest disasters.  

ST LOUIS

A week after an EF-3 tornado ripped through St. Louis, killing 5 people and causing an estimated $1 billion in damage, FEMA is nowhere to be found in the Gateway City

FEMA typically shows up within a few days after a disaster to start helping with immediate aid to help people just get through the days after the storm.  

With a disaster this big, presidents usually declare a federal disaster soon after the calamity hits. By now, FEMA should at least be mobilizing. But this time, crickets.

A few FEMA officials have joined state and federal teams to begin assessing damage, but there certainly has not been any full blown immediate aid yet. Nobody from the federal government is actually handing out aid. 

Missouri officials are beseeching the Trump administration to declare a disaster. On Monday, Missouri Gov Mike Kehoe, a Republican to issue a federal emergency declaration.

Also Sen. Josh Hawley, (R-MO) a staunch supporter of Trump, on Tuesday pushed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to get an emergency declaration for Friday's storm ASAP.

FEMA and Trump have also not responded for pleas for help in Missouri for a series of floods and tornadoes in March and early April.

KENTUCKY

In Kentucky, five days after tornadoes killed at least 19 people and left huge swaths of destruction in part of the state, Kentuckians had still not heard from FEMA.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear asked for federal help on Saturday, just hours after the tornadoes swept through.  He said he spoke with Noem on Saturday.  "They vowed to help...They showed real empathy for our people."

But so far, there's been little tangible help in Kentucky from FEMA.  Usually FEMA swoops in shortly after a disaster to meet immediate needs, like helping with food distribution or putting tarps on damaged roofs so that rain won't cause added damage to the homes. 

FEMA did say a deadline for applying for aid after devastating February floods in Kentucky is May 25. And survivors of a second serious flood in the state in April have until June 25. But no mention of the tornadoes last Friday in Kentucky. 

Beshear said President Trump called him on Saturday, but other than that, we haven't heard a peep about the tornadoes from Trump.  In the past, if a disaster was big enough, he'd visit the town or city that was victimized. If the president didn't visit the disaster site, he'd make public remarks saying victims are in his thoughts, that the federal government would do everything it can to help and all that stuff. 

I guess Trump has better things to do lately, like debating whether Taylor Swift is still "hot," or battling Bruce Springsteen because The Boss dared to sharply criticize the Trump regime. 

St. Louis and Kentucky are giving us an early view of what disaster response will be like in the coming years. FEMA still exists, so some help is coming to those two disaster zones.

Future disaster victims might not be so "lucky." If Trump gets his wish, FEMA will cease to exist, and states and local governments will be on their own. Or, people will lose their homes and the federal government will just shrug its shoulders, say "tough luck" and move on to giving additional tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires.

By the way, hurricane season is just around the corner. NOAA on Friday issued a seasonal hurricane prediction that forecasts another busier than normal season in 2025.

The United States is getting more dystopian by the day. 

 

April Was World's Second Warmest, Continuing This Year's Hot Trend

Another hot month in April. As has been the case
in recent years and will be for the foreseeable 
future, we'll see a continuing trend of
warmer and warmer global temperatures. 
April, 2025 was the world's second warmest on record

Granted, I'm late to the party with this, but the figures are in and to nobody's surprise, the world has its second hottest April on record.

According to the National Centers for Environmental Information:  

"Globally, the April, 2025 temperature was 1.22 degrees C (2.20 degrees F) higher than the 20th century average. This was the second-warmest April in NOAA's 176-year record and only 0.07 degrees C cooler than the record warm April of 2024.  

Notably the ten warmest Aprils on record have all occurred since 2010, with nine occurring since 2016, April 2025 also marked the 49th consecutive April with about average global temperatures,"

As usual, there were plenty of hot spots around the world.  The warmest spots relative to average were much of the Arctic, most of Asia, parts of Antarctica, the southeastern U.S., the British Isles, Indian Ocean, and parts of the Southern Ocean. 

The few cool spots relative to average- and they weren't that cool - were in the oceans north of Scandinavia,  a small patch of ocean south of Greenland, easter Antarctica, southern South America and a few spots in Australia.

Since 2024 was the warmest year on record by far, it's unlikely 2025 will set a new mark. However, NOAA gives this year a 99 percent chance of scoring in the top five warmest. 

UNITED STATES APRIL

The United States had its 13th warmest April on record. 

The United States had its 13th warmest April on 
record. The most warmth, relative to average
was in the southeastern U.S.

All states were warmer than normal except the northern Plains, which were close to normal for the month.  

The warmest part to the country relative to average was the Southeast. Nine states in that region had one of their top ten toastiest Aprils on record. North Carolina and Virginia each had their second warmest April in the 131 years they've been keeping track of this. 

The nation also had its 35th wettest April on record, meaning it was kinda wet but not a blockbuster.

As usual, they're particularly wet and also fairly dry regions. 

The western United States and Florida were dry. Parts of the Midwest were wet. Kentucky had its second wettest April, and Oklahoma had the third wettest April. 

Climate change is of course driving month after month record and near record heat globally,  It doesn't seem to matter if there's a La Nina, El Nino or neither. I virtually guarantee that all future months will at least score in the top five warmest on record.

The world will keep getting warmer so brace yourself, 

Hoping This Nor'easter Is Vermont's Last Mention Of Snow Until Autumn

If you're bummed by the forecast of a little snow in the 
mountains the next couple days, it could be worse.
This is Mount Marcy in the Adirondacks
on May 26, 2013.

After a mediocre day of weather on Wednesday - I guess the best we can hope for lately - we're back to the deep chill and rain. And snow. 

The snow is still forecast to be limited to the highest elevations of Vermont and New Hampshire, but it's a little disconcerting to have this issue on the cusp of Memorial Day.

True, this kind of thing has happened before this time of year, but it doesn't make it any easier. 

THE FORECAST

For the vast majority of us in Vermont who will not see snow, we get to endure another three day spell of temperatures reminiscent of late March than late May.  

The dampness and mostly light rain and chilly easterly breezes will add to the misery. We are still forecast to have near record low high temperatures today. 

Burlington won't set the record today. It was in the low 50s before dawn and the record low high for the date is 49 back in 1917. Monpelier so far has tied its record low high for the date of 46, but it will probably get a little above that today, so no record.

If anything, though, Friday might be even a bit chillier. 

At least here in Vermont, forecasters have backed off a little on precipitation amounts. It'll be close to an inch in far southern parts of the state and maybe a third of an inch in the far northwest.

The nor'easter will be especially felt in eastern New England, where one to three inches of windswept rain is due, along with gusts along the shore to 55 mph, where minor coastal flooding is likely.  

Back here in Vermont, this will be a long lasting affair, starting today and going through Saturday. I think that makes this Saturday the ninth in a row with at least some rain. The stubborn storm will stall near eastern Maine and only grudgingly start to move away on Sunday. 

The snow, such as it is, will hit all the peaks of the Green Mountains but focus on central and southern Vermont where the precipitation will be heavier. I still think some of the summits down there will see up to three or four inches of snow. 

Worst case scenario, a few wet snowflakes will make it down to as low as 2,000 feet above sea level

COULD BE WORSE

If you think this is bad, harken back to May 2013.  On Memorial Day weekend, May 25-27, the mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire and New York got absolutely buried in snow. 

Mount Mansfield had 13.2 inches of snow. Jay Peak accumulated 18 inches. Mount Marcy over in the Adirondacks received three feet of snow 

The snow at times ventured down to valley floors. Snowflakes fell in elevations as low as 750 feet in Vermont, and accumulations were reported at elevations of 1,500 feet. 

Right before the the May, 2013 snow developed, in some cases serious floods hit parts of Vermont. Homes were damaged in some spots, and several roads closed. About 7.5 inches of rain poured down on Burlington between May 21 and 26,

And you thought this May was wet?

The 2013 late May storms set the stage for repeated flash floods in Vermont through June and the first half of July that year.

By the way, the latest in the season Burlington has ever seen snowflakes is on May 31, 1945.

So you see, this latest bout of cold rain and mountain snow won't be setting any records. Cold comfort, indeed.  

Cold, Damp May Weather In Vermont/New England About To Get Worse

Snow fell atop Mount Manfield, Vermont earlier this week.
An unseasonably cold nor'easter starting tomorrow might
bring even more snow to the Green Mountains summits.
In the valleys, we're in for a long spell of wet, raw, chilly
weather for this time of year.

After last week's summer warmth, the past few days have been a shock. 

Damp, overcast, drizzly and cold. It even snowed a little atop Mount Mansfield earlier this week. 

After sort of, kind of a break today, it's about to get even worse. 

An out of season nor'easter is going to make things even wetter and a little colder than it's been. 

 There probably will even be a little more snow on the mountain summits.  High temperatures Thursday through Saturday throughout most of New England will be near record lows.  

Let's take it day by day.

TODAY:

Today will be the pick of the week, which isn't saying much at all. Highs will be a little warmer than recent days with temperatures poking up to maybe 60 degrees instead of just 50.  That 60 degrees is still about ten degrees chillier than average for this time of year. 

We might even see breaks of sun, but clouds will still predominate. Chances of showers are actually pretty low.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

Here comes the nor'easter. Overall, rainfall will be much heavier in southern Vermont, and in southern New England that in central and northern sections.  If current forecasts hold, more than an inch of rain will fall in far southern Vermont through Saturday morning.  Northern areas should see a third to a half inch. Roughly three quarters of an inch will fall in central Vermont. 

Down in southeastern New England, windswept rain will total one to two inches, maybe even locally three inches. 

The first wave of rain will come in Thursday morning, then wane some in the afternoon. But it will stay cold, with highs near 50 at best. A raw east wind will make it feel even worse. 

The bulk of the rain will come through Thursday night.  It will be a cold night for late May.  Temperatures will only be near 40 as it rains, and those gusty east winds will continue.

Up on the mountain tops, especially in the southern and central Green Mountains, it will probably snow,  The summit of Killington could get a few inches of snow out this, believe it or not.

Snow will be mostly limited to elevations above 3,000 feet but I wouldn't be surprised if a few wet snowflakes get a little lower than that. 

By the way, had this been winter, the storm coming would have been a very nice dump of snow for New England, including much of Vermont.

It seems odd we're getting a nor'easter this time of year. But they can happen at any time. They're just way more common in the late autumn, winter, and early spring. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

This particular storm will be in no hurry to leave.  It'll be near southeastern New England Thursday night and only make it as far as the eastern tip of Maine by Saturday morning. 

That will keep the cold, showery conditions going on Friday and Saturday. It won't rain heavily during that time. Just pesky, frequent light showers as daytime temperatures continue to hover near 50 degrees.

I suppose there might be some slight improvement Sunday and Monday as the storm slowly pulls away. At least the clouds might break a little Sunday and temperatures should be a little warmer,

With any luck - and it will take some luck - Memorial Day might actually be reasonable, with just a chance of a few showers, breaks of sun and temperatures up in the 60s to near 70. Unlike the next few days, if that forecast comes to pass on Monday, it will be just slightly cooler than normal.  Not ridiculous. 

 

Meet Henry, Our New Weather Dog

Meet Henry, the newest addition to our St. Albans,
Vermont family. He has taken over duties as 
the Weather Dog to assist with this blog.

 Back in April, you read here in this here blog thingy that Jackson, our loyal weather dog for 14 years passed away.  

Nearly two weeks ago though,  we welcomed our brand new weather dog. Meet Henry.    

No dog can replace Jackson, of course, But in the short time he's lived with us, Henry has proved himself a more than worthy successor. 

He's settled right into our household, loving the belly rubs, exploring the outdoors and helping me with my daily weather routines. 

Obviously Henry doesn't exist just to help me with the weather. Jackson didn't either. 

There's just something about caring for a dog, being responsible for its well being, and keeping both the dog and I entertained is what it's all about. 

Henry, age 4,  a chihuahua and terrier mix, has already proven himself a supremely happy dog, despite his rough beginnings. 

He was found in San Antonio, Texas, having been hit by a car. He had a broken pelvis and leg. He was brought to an animal shelter for care, but nobody claimed him. No tags. No microchip. 

Henry was actually put on a euthanasia list before a rescue organization saved him. He got the medical care he needed to heal his pelvis and leg.  Judging how Henry now runs around at full speed, I guess the recovery went well.

An extremely kind woman named Bonnie fostered Henry and nursed Henry back to health, and taught him how to live, love and experience joy again. Bonnie had become quite attached to Henry and wanted to keep him with her as a forever home .But she had bigger dogs that weren't not so enthusiastic about Henry .

Bonnie's big heart knew that Henry needed a safer home, So she flew to fly to Vermont with Henry, where she tearfully said goodbye to him and kindly turned him over to Jeff and me. 

Henry was understandably nervous in his new Vermont house with us for the first couple of days. But he quickly warmed to the occasion, and now he's right at home. He's not afraid of jumping up on the couch for a neck scratch or even turning over on his back to enjoy a bely rub  Announcements that it's time for dinner or do go outside are met with him literally jumping for joy, as if he'd won Mega Millions.

Being our Weather Dog, Henry does have some preferences  He does not like being out in the rain. He's not a fan of cold weather.  This being a Texas dog, we'll have to wait and see how he reacts to snow, but I'm not optimistic. He likes basking in sunshine, and loves breezy days as they are filled with scents to keep him entertained,

Henry has also already proven himself adept and removing pesky birds and rabbits from our yard.

So say a warm welcome to Henry.  You'll see him off and on in this weather blog, and we'll of course keep you posted on how he's doing. 

Vermont Damage Reports Still Coming In From Weekend Storm. Will Wet Spring Lead To Another Summer Of Floods?

Via WCAX, flooding Saturday in White River 
Junction, Vermont. Severe storms over the weekend
punctuated a very wet May, leading to speculation
we might have more flash floods this summer.

 Vermonters are still tallying the damage from Saturday's storms that left damage scattered throughout the state.  

Hartford and White River Junction  were especially hard hit with destructive winds and flooding. Hartford officials said 31 homes received at least some damage from flooding and as of yesterday residents of five homes were still displaced.

The emergency room at the VA Hospital in White River Junction had to be temporarily moved due to flooding, though overall hospital operations are still going on as scheduled. 

Another home was severely damaged in Hartford when a large tree fell on it. In another spot, a garage was flattened by falling trees.

The National Weather Service said the microburst that hit the Hartford area packed winds of between 65 and 80 mph, depending on the neighborhood.

In Bristol, Vermont, a landslide threatened West Street, also known as Routes 116 and 17. Crews this week are working to shore up the road, meaning travelers that can expect delays and possible detours.  Heavy rains likely caused the slope failure.  

As noted in Sunday's post, other damage was reported across the state. Roads were temporarily closed in Waitsfield, Warren, Plainfield, East Montpelier and other towns. 

WET MAY, MORE FLOODIING?

This is turning out to be a wet, soggy May and more rain is on the way. So far this month, Montpelier has had 5.55 inches of rain;  St. Johnsbury 5.1 and Burlington 4.31 inches,  That's more than should fall in the entire month of May. 

We won't come close to breaking a May rainfall record. In Burlington that honor goes to May, 2013 with 8.74 inches. 

We probably won't receive an extraordinary amount of rain in the next week, just light stuff north with likely somewhat heavier rain south. 

This shouldn't  cause any new flooding. But the new precipitation coupled with a lack of sunshine will keep soils saturated for awhile yet. 

If we have a wet summer with plenty of downpours, the soggy May could set Vermont up for another season of damaging flash floods. We've had two years in a row of that, so we don't need a third.

There's no guarantees, of course. The weather pattern could change and we could end up having a rather dry summer.

For what it's worth, long range forecasts call for a warmer and wetter than normal summer, That hints at the kind of humid days that could produce torrential downpours and flash floods.  True, such long range forecasts aren't always accurate, but it's something to think about. 

Climate change isn't helping. A warmer atmosphere holds more water, which can be released in the form of intense storms. Rainfall in Vermont has increased as a result.  Summer downpours are often more torrential than ever, dropping immense amount of rain in a short period of time. 

That's what happened Saturday in parts of Vermont. A few areas received an inch of rain in less than half hour.  

Just to be on the safe side, if you live in a flood prone area, make sure now that your flood insurance is up to date. Have a plan to escape fast if water rises. It also wouldn't hurt to have a "to go" bag prepared with necessities ahead of time in case you need to make a hasty flood retreat.