Trump Continues To Rage Against Wind And Solar Power With Lies

Donald Trump ramped up his hatred of wind turbines
and solar power this week, which is bad news both
for climate change and an increasingly
serious electricity shortfall. 

 So we had this bit of tedium recently from Donald Trump via his ironically named social media site Truth Social:  

"Any State that has built or relied on WINDMILLS and SOLAR for power are seeing RECORD BREAKING INCREASES IN ELECTRICITY AND ENEGY COSTS. THE SCAM OF THE CENTURY!  We will not approve wind or farmer destroying Solar. The days of stupidity are over in the USA!!! MAGA." 

As usual, I don't even know where to begin with this train wreck/word salad.  But he clearly keeps ranting about wind turbines and solar installations. When he fixates on something, he doesn't let go. Usually for irrational reasons. 

One theory is that the wind turbines  Scotland installed offshore of Trump's golf course are ugly, at least to him, so therefore, all windmills around the world must go.

Or something like that. 

This latest screed came after the Trump administration announced Wednesday that going forward, he will not approve solar and wind power projects. 

Additionally, Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins said Monday that his department would rescind "all programs building solar panels on our farmland." 

Also this week, the Trump administration launched a national security probe into imported wind turbines and their components. This seems to be a prelude to big tariffs on wind energy. 

The administration, in typical fashion, does not give us reasons or evidence behind the probe. But as The Hill tells us, they're looking at the role of foreign supply chains, the affects foreign government subsidies and predatory trade practices. That sounds like economics, not national security, but who knows?

The Trump people said they are also checking into whether there's an ability to weaponize foreign-built wind turbines.  I'm not sure what that is. Maybe they think China can launch nuclear warheads or some damn thing from turbines installed near Sioux City, Iowa or something?

Spoiler: They can't. But who knows whether there's some other security risk. Again, we haven't been given any evidence so far. don't have evidence of that. 

THE NEED

Solar and wind power are great for combating climate change as an alternative to fossil fuel. But there's also a more immediate need for these sources of electricity. 

Electricity demand is outpacing supply in some parts as the United States, as CNBC reports. 

Electricity costs have gone up for many American consumers, but experts are saying that's mostly because of growing demand from data centers and related industries.

Per USA Today:  

"'We need to build more power generation now, and that includes renewable energy. The U.S. will need roughly 118 gigawatts (the equivalent of 12 New York Cities) of new power generation in the next four years to prevent price spikes and potential shortages,' said Ray Long, CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy. Only a limited set of technologies - solar, wind, batteries and some natural gas - can be built at that scale in that frame."

Solar, wind and battery storage would ease the electricity shortage due to AI and expanded data centers the quickest, because you get them up and running pretty quickly. Solar and wind comprise most of the projects in line to connect to the grid. 

So, what Trump is doing is actually driving up the cost of we'll pay for electricity more. You know, supply and demand. Less supply, the price goes up. 

He's also creating a danger of electricity shortages, perhaps doing yet another thing to turn us into a third world country by causing blackouts to power the grid.  And if one part of the grid goes, it can cause an imbalance that can cause the whole thing to go dark. 

That's obviously a worse-case scenario, but since Trump is so cavalier about everything else, he also wouldn't care if all us serfs freeze in the dark.  

Will It Actually Rain Sunday/Monday In Vermont? Some Hope, But....

Vermont lilac trees and bushes have had a rough time this
year. Early season wetness allowed a fungus to take hold
in the leaves. Then the drought hit. The fungus, 
combined with the dryness is making lilac leaves 
turn brown and fall off prematurely, like on this
lilac in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. The affected
lilacbushes should come back and bloom
just fine next spring.  

At least the weather is nice. Even as our gardens, crops and even trees shrivel up from lack of rain. 

We had another gorgeous day in Vermont Thursday and another perfect late summer day has gotten underway this morning.  

We can actually partly credit Hurricane Erin for the fantastic weather. 

Erin is racing away from the East Coast after causing flooding and scary waves along the shoreline. The atmosphere always tries to balance itself. 

When there's a hurricane off the East Coast with its low pressure, there's often high pressure off to its west, southwest or northwest to compensate. 

This happens with almost every hurricane or tropical storm.   Long time Vermonters might remember the day after Hurricane Irene in 20111 devastated the state with some of the worst flooding in our history. The day after the flood was absolutely gorgeous as the remnants of Irene took off to the Northeast. 

The same thing sort of thing is going on today with Erin far offshore.  Our compensating high pressure is basically right overhead today. This time, of course, we didn't have to endure anything worse than deepening drought after Hurricane Erin passed by far, far to our southeast. 

That high pressure hanging around today, so we have another great one with sunshine and low humidity.  It will be a little warmer than yesterday with many of us getting into the low 80s. 

It'll be even warmer Saturday as it gets into the 80s.  Which will be one last summer day, at least for awhile.

The fire danger is high in Vermont today, and could get even worse tomorrow. That's because the humidity will stay low, and breezes will pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley.   The wind could fan any flames that start in the dry woods and fields around Vermont.

So be careful out there! 

TINY BIT OF DROUGHT RELIEF?

Those breezes on Saturday are the first sign that we might actually get some rain here in Vermont.  The wind will be generated by an approaching cold front and its band of showers.

Don't get too excited, as I highly doubt whatever we end up getting will end our building drought. But it might  briefly stop it from getting worse. At least this cold front will probably drop some rain. 

Meteorologists still think a fairly slow moving cold front will come through Monday, with plenty of showers along and ahead of it later Sunday through Monday. At least that's the hope. 

I'm not wowed by the amount of rain forecast. The National Weather Service this morning is giving us a 50/50 shot at getting about a half inch of rain.   Since showers and thunderstorms will be involved, some areas will get bonus downpours with over an inch of rain, while other unlucky places get very little. 

That kind of rainfall would mean you won't have to water your garden for a couple days, and will extend a lifeline to some parched crops across Vermont and the rest of northern New England. 

After that, it's back to mostly dry weather for quite awhile. Starting next Tuesday,  we'll get into a long period of airflow from the northwest.  That means only light showers from time to time as moisture-starved disturbance zip on through from dry central Canada. It'll stay on the cool side, too.

There are some uncertain signs that a strong ridge of high pressure will set up camp over the northeastern U.S. and southeast Canada as we get into early September.

If that happens, it won't help the situation. It will just get warmer, but the high pressure would deflect any wet storms away from us.  The drought would live on under this scenario,

The bottom line: The expected rain later Sunday and Monday would just be a brief interruption to a worsening drought.  Almost makes you wish a tropical storm would come through and really wet us down.  But, I guess we have to be careful about what we wish for. 

Thursday Afternoon Erin Update: Coastlines Keep Getting Battered As Storm Begins To Move Away

Hurricane Erin well off the East Coast this afternoon.
It's still huge in size

Hurricane Erin has been doing its dirty work from a distance, as expected. 

It has stayed more than 200 miles offshore of North Carolina on its closest approach earlier today. It's now heading further away, heading northeast out to sea.   

At 5 p.m. Hurricane Erin was about 370 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and booking it northeastward. Top winds were 100 mph, but a weakening trend has started. 

Even so, tides, storm surges and battering waves are continuing along the East Coast. We've been talking about the storm's immense size, and that's what is driving coastal residents batty from Miami to St. John's, Newfoundland. 

The problem isn't going away soon. 

In a number of areas along the East Coast some of the worst surges and waves will hit with this evening's high tide. 

Tropical storm and storm surge warnings were still in effect this afternoon in North Carolina. Coastal flood warnings are in effect until Saturday in New Jersey, with the highest tide of them all expected this evening

Tides at Cape May, New Jersey and Lewes, Delaware are forecast to be the highest since an intense winter nor'easter in 2016, Texas meteorologist and hurricane expert Matt Lanza said,

All the way up into New England, coastal flood, high surf and wind advisories are flying through tomorrow at least. In addition to the rough water, winds in places like Block Island, Nantucket and Provincetown could gust to 50 mph. 

Basically all beaches along the U.S. East Coast are closed to swimming because the waves and rip currents are too dangerous. We don't know when they will all reopen. It depends on when the seas calm down. 

The process might be slow. Even as Erin departs, a new tropical system seems to want to form hot on the hurricane's heels. The new storm will not be nearly as strong or as huge as Erin, but it will probably keep seas agitated all the way to the East Coast. 

The epicenter of the East Coast Erin chaos was - as everybody anticipated - Cape Hatteras/The Outer Banks of North Carolina.  The only way in or out is Route 12 and that shut down  because of water, deep sand washed onto the road and debris, according to Dare County, North Carolina officials.

I haven't seen news yet that the two houses most vulnerable to collapsing into the sea at Rodanthe, North Carolina have actually done so, but the event is still ongoing. Media reports this afternoon described the houses as "on the verge of collapse."

There's also lots of images of flooded streets, and waves eroding dunes or blasting beneath houses perched on pilings. 

The winds weren't too bad out on Cape Hatteras, all things considered. The highest gusts at Hatteras Mitchell Field at 43 mph. Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there. A U.S. Coast Guard station in Hatteras reported a gust of 53 mph. 

Lanza, the Texas meteorologists, also found an interesting and dangerous effect of Hurricane Erin up in Canada. It's super dry in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. 

High pressure on the northwest flank of hurricanes usually has very dry air and that's the case up in Atlantic Canada. The contrast between that high pressure and offshore Erin is producing gusty winds up there, so now the fire danger is quite high. 

Even here in the Green Mountain State, that same dry high pressure, the recent lack of rain and northeast breezes created in part by distance Erin have created yet another day of high fire danger in Vermont. 

Drought Officially Spreads Into Vermont; Expands, Worsens In Northeast

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released this 
morning, has a little more than a third of 
Vermont (orange shading) is in drought.
The rest of the state (yellow) is
regarded as "abnormally dry" which
is just barely short of drought conditions

 The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor has made it official: 

Parts of Vermont are now in drought, and drought is expanding - and worsening - in northern New England,.

Roughly a third of Vermont is in moderate drought, most in the Connecticut River Valley and central Vermont. 

The entire rest of the state is "abnormally dry" so none of us are in good shape.  A week earlier, the northern Champlain Valley was technically not "abnormally dry" but it really kinda was. 

This really is a flash drought, which is one that comes on in a matter of weeks, rather than the months it often takes for such a dry spell to develop. 

During the week of July 29, no place in Vermont was regarded as abnormally dry.  Then, a week later, 72 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry.  That went up to 87 percent last week. Now, this week all of the state is abnormally dry with that third of the state in drought. 

Drought continue to deepen in nearby states. Fully 85 percent of New Hampshire is in drought, up from just 12 percent last week. 

The drought is deepening in Maine, too. About 41 percent of the state is in at least moderate drought. This week, the U.S. Drought Monitor upgraded the dryness along much of the seacoast to "severe drought."

The weather outlook isn't great. It's going to stay dry for the next three days. Some fairly decent rains might come through New England Sunday and Monday, but it won't be nearly enough to end the drought. It might barely dent it. 

Beyond Monday the overall weather pattern heading into September favors mostly dry weather. This drought came on ridiculously fast, but it's not going to go away anytime soon. 

Weird Vermont August Temperatures Continue; Brief Return To Summer About To Start

Skies clear out in Vermont last evening, as this sort of
autumnal looking photo taken near sunset in St. Albans
shows. We woke up to cool, clear dawn this 
morning setting up three more sunny, dry days. 

 Temperatures got weird again in Vermont Wednesday, following a trend we've already seen a few times this month already.  

There's usually not much a temperature range during a Green Mountain State summer, but you still almost always find readings a little cooler to the north, and a little warmer in southern valleys. 

Not on Wednesday! The range was big and backwards. At 2 p.m. Wednesday, the temperature was 74 degrees in Highgate, up near the Canadian border. 

At the same time it was just 58 degrees in Bennington. Which is damn chilly for an August afternoon in Vermont. 

The reason for all this was the distribution of clouds and sun. As expected, a nice soaking rain missed us, going by to the south.But the clouds from that rainy patch blotted out the sun in far southern Vermont. So it stayed nippy for folks within easy reach of Route 9. 

Up north, further from that little weather system in Highgate, the sun was able to break out, allowing temperatures to reach the 70s.   

This is the second time in a week that we had strange temperatures in Vermont. On Sunday, it was the opposite of yesterday. A sharp southward moving cold front had simultaneous afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s in northern border towns like Highgate, and in the mid-80s in places like Bennington and Brattleboro.

That was quite an unusual event for August. 

We also had our Death Valley heat wave on August 9-12 that brought 90+ degree heat and desert-like low humidity. That was again, a practically unheard of event in a Vermont August, as heat waves here tend to be quite humid. 

A big part of the reason for the odd temperatures, and the relative big ups and downs we're experiencing and expecting is the jet stream has been wavier than usual for late summer. There's bigger northward bulges than we usually see, and deeper dips. This state of affairs should continue for awhile yet. 

This arrangement might even eventually provide us with some needed rain. 

DRY FOR NOW, BUT HOPE?

That rain that missed us even disappointed far southern Vermont, which stood a chance of a decent soaking.  One forecast I saw for Bennington called for 0.81 inches of rain. Instead, they received only about half that. 

Go just a short distance north and rain really tapered off. Springfield and Rutland both managed just 0.07 inches. North of that....nothing.  

No rain is coming today, tomorrow and Friday. Instead we have a warming trend that will bring us plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming back up to normal summer levels, 

The humidity will stay low, so we get to enjoy a trio of really nice, comfortable late summer days. The Captain Obvious downside is our drought will keep getting worse.  

However, if we're lucky, that wavy jet stream might give us just a little drought relief toward Sunday and Monday. 

Another unusually deep dip in the jet stream is coming for the eastern U.S. At first, the axis of the southward dip will be a little to our west. That will slow down a cold front coming at us and allow moist air to stream north toward New England, 

If that happens, we could get some pretty soaking showers and maybe thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.  Early guesses on precipitation don't exactly look overwhelming, maybe a half inch to as much as an inch if everything works out right. We'll take what we can get. But the way our luck is running, it's still possible the bulk of the rain could go off to our west or to our east. 

We'll have to check out updated forecasts in the coming days as the cold front approaches. 

Whatever happens, it won't be enough to cure our incoming drought. That dip in the jet stream will keep us pretty darn cool for late August through much of next week. The cool air might generate some light showers from time to time, but not give us the repeated soakings we need. 

Extended forecasts -  which I admit are a little less accurate than forecasts for the next couple days  - keep us generally on the cool, and unfortunately dry side into the opening days of September. 

Delete Old Emails To Save Water? Despite UK News, It Probably Won't Help.

UK environmental officials advocated for people to
delete old emails to save water, as data centers'
use a lot of water. Technology experts 
questioned whether this would help much.

 I'm terrible at deleting old and unwanted emails. 

It's just such a tedious pain to do, as I keep getting deluged with junk. If you try to get off email lists, it just creates a larger tidal wave of this junk.  

Does that make me a person that wastes water?

I know you wouldn't think a full email box means I make droughts worse somehow, but apparently that's a thing. Or at least some people think so. 

Via The Verge, here's an excerpt form a press release from Helen Wakeham, UK Environmental Agency Director of Water: "Simple, everyday choices - such as turning off a tap or deleting old emails - also really helps the collective effort to reduce demand and help preserve the health of our rivers and wildlife."

Your accumulated emails supposedly make drought worse because data centers use a lot of water to keep power servers cool, which is necessary to allow them to work properly.  According to The Verge,    a small data center can use more than 25 milliliters of water per year, if it uses old-school methods of allowing water to evaporate.

But there are a lot of reasons why the UK Environment Agency's worries about accumulated email might be misplaced, at least in terms of water usage. Tech companies are using new cooling methods to try and limit the amount of water they use.

That in itself might be a losing battle, since surging AI technology uses enormous amounts of water due to the big elaborate data centers AI and other technologies demand. 

But several other sources say deleting your emails, which might improve your efficiency a bit, might not help much at all with limiting water usage. 

 According to ZME Science:

"Most cloud data, especially your old photos and emails, lives on  high-density, low-power hard drives or archive tape. These use very little energy, and in some cases, almost none at all when idle. Secondly deletion isn't immediate. Files persist for weeks or months after deletion, usually (in a) system  similar to a "recycle bin." Only when data is overwritten, and only if it leads to hardware decommissioning is any energy (or water) actually saved."

Additionally, says ZME Science, 

"Perhaps most importantly, it's the 'flows' of data that use up the most resources, not the 'stocks.'  In other words, the real environmental cost of digital life comes not from what you keep, but what you do

Watching an episode of a Netflix show uses as much energy as storing 50 GB of photos for a year. Using AI tools, video conferencing, TikTok scrolling - these 'live' activities are far more resource-intensive."

So, if you want to be environmentally friendly, and save water in a drought, there are things you can to that are much more effective than deleting old junk emails from some clothing company you bought a scarf from umpteen years ago. 

Up here in Vermont, we're gotten into a burgeoning drought. It's not severe, at least not yet.  So, we're trying not to take long showers, making sure faucets are shut tight. When I can, I let what little rainfall we get accumulate in containers and use that water to soak down plants a little bit. 

I could spend my day deleting the zillions of old emails I have. But that's boring. So, I'll take my chances. I don't think those old emails will drain Lake Champlain 

 

 

 

UK water managers also don't appear to know how much water deleting emails would save,

"The Environment Agency didn't immediately respond to an inquiry from The Verge about how much water it thought deleting files might save, nor how much water data centers that store files or train AI use in the UK's drought-affected areas."

  

Don't Be Fooled By Hurricane Erin's "Weakening" East Coast. It's Now Gaining A Little And Shoreline Still In For A Battering

Hurricane Erin of the Southeast U.S. coast this 
morning. Its classic symmetrical shape and eye are
a sign it has a chance to keep restrengthening for
awhile as it passed by North Carolina. 

As of late this morning, Hurricane Erin has stopped its slow strength decline and is starting to gain wind speed again. 

At 11 a.m, top winds were at 110 mph, which is reversal from a trend we saw Tuesday. 

Erin's top wind speed has slowly been winding down. Top winds were at 125 mph Tuesday morning, 110 mph by noon yesterday, 105 mph last evening and 100 mph early this morning .

The central air pressure of Erin, which had been rising, is now falling, another sign that it's beginning to strengthen again. 

Strong upper level winds and a gulp of dry air were disrupting Erin on Tuesday, which led to its weakening trend.

Those strong upper level winds have waned and Hurricane Erin began regaining its organization overnight and early today. 

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center think Erin will continue restrengthening today, probably achieving top winds of 120 mph off the southeastern United States coast. 

Starting tomorrow morning, upper level winds over Erin will get strong again, so the storm should start weakening again as accelerates northeastward in the open Atlantic far off the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia Thursday and Friday.  

Whether it gets stronger or not, or by how much is sort of besides the point. The storm is so large in size that it's generated a lot of big waves that have already started crashing into the U.S. East Coast.  Dangerous ocean waves are extending 1,000 or so miles from Hurricane Erin's center. 

U,S, COASTLINE BATTERING

Even though Erin is staying far offshore tropical storm force winds - 39 mph or more - extend 265 miles from the hurricane's center. That means places like the Outer Banks of North Carolina and  probably Cape Cod and the islands in Massachusetts will have those winds, even though the storm will stay far offshore. 

A dozen East Coast states have some sort of advisory or warning regarding Hurricane Erin, Tropical storm and coastal flood warnings are in effect for the shores of  North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.  

The main United States focus is on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, where water started washing over Route 12 at high tide Tuesday - far in advance of Hurricane Erin. Route 12 is basically the only way on or off the Outer Banks.  The overwash, storm surge flooding and huge waves on the Outer Banks gets worse with every high tide cycle as Erin approaches, and will peak tomorrow.

Once Route 12 is blocked, it could take days to clear enough sand and do enough repairs to make the road passable, 

Charleston, South Carolina is another trouble spot, which might be surprising since Hurricane Erin will miss that city by such a wide margin.  But due to sea level rise due to climate change, the Charleston area now floods frequently in storms.

High tide in Charleston today is forecast to bring moderate, almost borderline major coastal flooding. 

Further north above the Outer Banks, pretty substantial coastal flooding is expected in resort towns like Virginia Beach, Virginia, Ocean City, Maryland, Bethany and Rohoboth beaches in Delaware and the Jersey Shore.

In all these areas, coastal roads will become impassable and officials are worried about damage to vulnerable structures. To nobody's surprise, beaches are closed to swimmers. Even before Erin, the Jersey Shore has endured several incidents. Just last week, one person died and six others were rescued amid rip tides in Seaside Heights, New Jersey.

In Massachusetts,  Nantucket officials said all beaches on the island's south shore are now closed because of dangerous surf and rip currents caused by Hurricane Erin. Locals told reporters Tuesday the water was already too rough to safely swim in, 

Rough seas and some coastal problems are likely in Atlantic Canada late this week and the weekend. By Monday or Tuesday, Erin will be in the North Atlantic and transition to a non-tropical system that could cause problems in Ireland by Tuesday. 

 OTHER STORMS

The National Hurricane Center is watching two other areas in the Atlantic Ocean that could develop into tropical storms. 

One disturbance is roughly following Erin's path and could develop into a tropical depression or storm north of the northern Leeward Islands.  Early indications are this storm, if it develops, will curve northward in the Atlantic and miss the United States by a wide margin. 

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At the moment at least, if this thing develops into a tropical storm, it could be short-lived as strong upper level winds wreck it.

But even after those winds break it apart, this disturbance could eventually redevelop closer to the Caribbean in a week or two 

 

Skies Refuse To Rain In Ultra Dry Northern Vermont, Pours Elsewhere

You'd think a sky over northern Vermont that looked like
this early today would yield some badly needed rain,
but nope! The drought continues. 

 I bet a lot of you will be frustrated in northern and central Vermont today. Especially if your gardens are continuing to wilt. 

It was pouring just south of Vermont this morning. News of additional flash flooding from too much rain keeps coming in, mostly recently the past couple days in and around Chicago.

In most of the rest of Vermont, though, gray clouds covered the sky starting late yesterday afternoon. A gloomy dark overcast greeted us this morning. 

You'd think we're in for a nice soaking. But we've only had a couple of lonely raindrops north of Route 4, and that's pretty much all we can expect today. 

The drought rolls on.

The potent little storm that flooded Chicago is pushing a band of pretty heavy rain through New York's Mohawk Valley and into southern New England. I've heard forecasts that anticipated up to three inches of rain near Albany, New York, and well over an inch in southwestern Massachusetts and parts of Connecticut, 

Far southern Vermont is getting some nice rains, too. Along Route 9 between Bennington and Brattleboro, up to three quarters of an inch of rain could come down by the end of the day. 

That tapers off to an expected tenth of an inch along Route 4 between Rutland and White River Junction. Central and northern Vermont get basically nothing, 

It seems that once a drought starts, you can't get the clouds to produce any rain.  Some rain was coming out of the clouds last evening over northern Vermont, but the air was so dry, it evaporated on the way down. I think I counted three whole raindrops while I was in my St. Albans, yard last evening. 

It'll feel a bit strange watering the gardens under a chilly overcast instead of dry heat today, but there we are. 

THE DETAILS: 

It'll be the same story today. The clouds will hold on most of the day, especially central and south. But that overcast won't yield any rain to speak of in the northern half of Vermont   Some breaks of sun will probably break out in the afternoon along and north of Route 2.   

More than an inch of rain is expected just south of 
Vermont today but most of the state will unfortunately
stay dry. Only areas in the far south will pick up
anything signficant,

Because of the clouds, most of us will see highs only in the 60s, far cooler than normal for mid-August. 

The far north could see some low 70s with those breaks of sun.  Areas near Route 9 at the bottom of Vermont could hold in the mid and upper 50s, which is remarkably chilly for this time of year. 

It'll clear up tonight, and stay pretty much that way well into Saturday. The sunshine and low humidity will continue to dry us out. 

Since we'll start off cool this afternoon, temperatures will be able to crash overnight. By dawn it'll be in the 40s across most of the Green Mountain State. , 

We'll see a warming trend through Saturday with highs in the 70s Thursday, near 80 Friday and in the low 80s Saturday.

RAIN CHANCES? 

At the moment, meteorologists are predicting a slow moving cold front Sunday and Monday could give all of Vermont and the rest of the Northeast  a good dose of rain. But given the recent track history of rainless days, I'll believe it when I see it. 

Sharpiegate Comes Back, Like The Monster That Won't Die

"Sharpiegate" started six years ago over Donald
Trump's failed attempt at forecasting Hurricane
Dorian. It's still going on today with the firing
of two NOAA officials, in part because
 Trump. Just. Can't. Let. It. Go.

 Sharpiegate is back in the news, in a typically depressing way. 

Back in late July, two NOAA scientists who defied Trump in the name of accuracy and science in his first administration are being sacked.  It looks like because Trump has a long memory, at least in terms of loyalty.  

"Two top National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials who played a role in the high profile "Sharpiegate" investigation at the agency were placed on administration leave this week. 

Stephen Volz, the assistant administrator at NOAA's Satellite and Information Service, and Jeff Dillon, a deputy general counsel at NOAA, were placed on leave..."   Volz told NBC News."

You might remember Sharpiegate. Back in 2019 Trump incorrectly said Hurricane Dorian was threatening Alabama, but National Weather Service meteorologists in Alabama contradicted him, accurately saying the storm was no threat to Alabama. 

A normal president who might have been misinformed like that would say, "Oops, we have updated info that says Alabama doesn't have to worry, so we'll move on."

But this is Trump of course, who can never be wrong about the slightest thing. He  later produced a forecast map that had been amateurishly altered by a Sharpie to suggest Alabama had been threatened by the storm.   To make everything worse, top NOAA officials, appointed by Trump in his first administration, rebuked those professional and accurate Alabama meteorologists.  

Which of course looks like political pressure and not science to me and pretty much everybody else 

 Here's why we think Volz and Dillon are in trouble now.  Neil Jacobs was nominated by Trump as his pick to head NOAA. Jacobs got in trouble with Sharpiegate. Per NBC: 

"NOAA hired the National Academy of Public Administration to perform an independent assessment into allegations of scientific misconduct during the incident. The investigation found that Jacobs violated NOAA's ethics policies. 

Volz wrote the final decision about the report for NOAA, which agreed with NAPA's findings. He said Dillen worked on that document also. Volz said he did not know whether notices that they'd both been put on leave on the same day and their connection to the 'Sharpiegate' report were a coincidence."

CNN talked to former NOAA officials who smell a rat. One said: "It's an interesting coincidence that less than a week before Neil Jacobs sent committee vote, the two dedicated career civil servants who investigated him for scientific integrity violations around Sharpiegate were dismissed from service."

 NOAA confirmed the pair had been placed on leave, but are tightlipped on why. Dillen is out due to unspecified "performance issues." Volz is out for an "unrelated matter."

 They're not even telling Volz why he's out. 

 It's all for plausible deniability. It looks bad to admit they're getting rid of Volz and Dillon to soothe Trump's narcissistic ego. So they're denying it has anything to do with Sharpiegate. 

NOAA's communications director, Kim Foster, had this to say: "Neither action is related in any way to each other or the Sharpiegate investigation."

Sure, Jan. 

As for Jacobs, the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee on July 30 advanced his nomination, but we don't know yet when the full Senate will vote on the nomination. 

 

The Craziest Hurricane Conspiracy Yet As Erin Spins Off The Coast

Hurricane Erin off the East Coast in September, 2001.
Insert on upper left shows the World Trade Center
burning in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack.

Every weather event seems to bring a storm of wacko conspiracy theories each weirder and more outlandish than the rest.  

This time it's Hurricane Erin. I think, Get a load out of the one I saw this morning: 

As we know, strong Hurricane Erin was east of the Bahamas today, and is forecast to move northward, well off the U.S. East Coast.

 It will cause problems with coastal flooding and rip currents up and down the East Coast. The Outer Banks of North Carolina are going to get blasted by storm surges and battering waves. 

But thankfully, it won't be a direct hit, 

In September, 2001, there was another Hurricane Erin, which also moved northward well off the U.S. East Coast, passing far offshore of New York City on September 11, 2001.

That, of course was 9/11, the day of the worst terrorist attack in U.S, history, claiming more than 3,000 lives.

The conspiracy theory is that 9/11 was supposedly an inside job, and part of that inside job was 2001's Hurricane Erin.

According to this conspiracy, that version of Hurricane Erin was supposedly heading straight toward New York. But it '"unexpectedly" veered away from the city because the  government steered the hurricane away to allow for the clear skies that accommodated the attack.

I'm unclear from the conspiracy theory as to why our government would want to launch such a fatal attack on itself, but whatevs.

Now, there's another Hurricane Erin and the government is somehow plotting something, Even the name Erin is one code word they're using since both the 2001 and 2025 hurricanes are named Erin. 

Uh, yeah, right. 

It's unclear what nefarious plot is supposedly coming with the latest Hurricane Erin, but I'm sure they'll come up with something creative. 

I won't link to the source of this wild story, ss I don't want to give them any clicks or revenue. 

For those who want an explanation, nobody can change the path of a hurricane.  Nothing any human has invented can overcome the power of even a weak tropical storm, never mind a full blown hurricane. All you can do is predict where a hurricane is going and get people out of the way. 

There was nothing unexpected about 2001's Hurricane Erin. The National Hurricane Center and every other meteorologist worth their salt in 2001 knew days in advance that Hurricane Erin would miss the East Coast and stay well offshore. Which is exactly what happened. 

A cold front that passed through the Northeast, one that produced picturesque thunderstorms over New York City on the evening of September 10, 2001 helped steer the hurricane away. 

Those clear blue skies weren't created by man either. Often, a hurricane will help produce sinking air west of its center. Sinking air means clear skies. That's the weather pattern we had that day. 

If I understand our conspiracy theorists correctly (admittedly hard to do)  the claim is that both Hurricane Erins stayed or will stay offshore is highly suspicious, and can't happen without human intervention,

Actually,a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean that stays offshore isn't weird art all. It happens pretty much every year. If a storm system or cold front is timed right, which is often, a hurricane will respond by heading north, then northeast offshore instead of plowing into the East Coast. 

There's nothing on about the name "Erin" coming up again and again, It's not a code word, 

The World Meteorological Organization picks the names, and tries to use easy to remember monikers to help the public avoid confusion over which storm is which. 

All tropical storm names are recycled every six years. The only exception is when a storm is so powerful and so memorable that it is retired, to be replaced by another name with the same first letter.

There has not been a remarkable or particularly destructive Erin yet, so we had Hurricane or Tropical Storm Erin in 2001, 2007, 2013, 2019 and 2025. 

OTHER WEIRD STORIES

I've seen other conspiracy theories on 2001's Hurricane Erin.

From Facebook, meteorologist T.J. Del Santo posted an innocent and factually correct note and satellite photo of the 2001 Hurricane Erin.  Mixed in with comments containing personal remembrances of that day, we get this tin hat gem:  

"Erin was planned out with 9/11. Geoengineered to steer out to sea and bring in the North wind that kept all the harmful smoke/dust mostly offshore Had there been the traditional south-southeast wind, there would have been many more fatalities from inhalation."

If that wasn't bad enough, somebody responded, "Ridiculous - fatalities were the goal, the point of it all."

Sigh, 

I've also seen stories about how Hurricane Erin was created via AI somehow, that it's HAARP, a conspiracy theory in which the government is waging war on the public by unleashing storms on us.

I'm always amazed that people will gravitate to the most outlandish stories when scary or weird weather hits. But they ignore the one thing that humans are doing to make a lot of these storms scarier or worse or more destructive,

Which is climate change. Climate change is likely one of the reasons Hurricane Erin intensified so quickly last weekend. It's why other hurricanes lately do the same. And it's at least in part why hurricanes Helene and Milton were so awful last year,

But that's boring. Let's instead invent some far out story about the Deep State or George Soros in some evil laboratory, cooking up a storm named Erin to terrorize Americans for reasons that are never made clear. 

There's also an Instagram account who's character says HAARP -  again run by some evil government agency - was pushing Hurricane Erin toward the U.S. but some white knight group called The Collective successfully pulled its path away from the U.S. 

"The Collective" is still apparently trying to battle two more coming storms the government is hatching. 

Back in the real world, two new disturbances have come off the west African coast, as these things always do this time of year. These two disturbance might or might not naturally develop into tropical storms, and nobody is sure where they will end up if they form. 

Also in the real world, HAARP is a low-key scientific study of the ionosphere. It has no ability to control the weather, and the scientists working on HAARP have no apparent desire to alter the directions of storms or anything like that.  

The real world might be more boring than the fantasies conspiracy theorists weave.  But it's more fun being sane, to be honest. 

Cool Weather Not As Chilly Due To Climate Change. Also Rain Keeps Avoiding Us In Vermont

Broken clouds grace the sky over St. Albans, Vermont
this morning. Unfortunately those clouds will not
yield much rain this week.

Well, we're not exactly dying of heat stroke right now are we?

Autumn in August will continue for a couple more days while at least parts of Vermont will continue to get cheated out of the rain.  

First we'll get into the cool weather, then rain chances. 

As noted yesterday, Monday's low in Burlington was 49, the first time since June 3 it was under 50 degrees. It also was the first August night since 2020 and only the second since 2013 with August readings in the 40s. 

That we're remarking about what was historically an unremarkable overnight low in mid-August is yet another example of how climate change has altered our perspective. 

In the past, most Julys and almost all Augusts would routinely have at least one or two mornings in Burlington that got down into the 40s. 

That has changed. We haven't had a July with a low under 50 since 2015,  

This is the first August since 2020 that got into the 40s,  Of the ten Augusts between 2015 and 2024, eight of them stayed at 50 degrees or above.  In the 110 years before 2015, only five Augusts failed to get under 50 degrees in Burlington.

That's a huge shift. Nights have been warming faster than days under this climate change regime, so that in part explains the warmer nights. I imagine development of homes, businesses and roads around the Burlington International Airport, where measurements are taken, has had some influence on overnight lows. But climate change is almost certainly skewing the data, too.

Given the new weather pattern, we might actually have another night or two in the 40s in Burlington this month. But not right away. 

Clouds last night, and more clouds predicted  tonight are keeping overnights a little balmier than Monday's dawn was. The clouds will keep daytimes cool. Under a somewhat thin overcast with some breaks in the clouds, we should make it into the 70s today. 

Tomorrow should only make it into the 60s under thicker clouds, with maybe some readings near 70 north where the clouds might thin a bit,

Then we'll have a brief warming trend that will make it feel like summer again starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend. Highs on Saturday could reach the mid-80s. 

Early indications are that it will be back to "pre-fall" or "fair weather" after that, with cool weather seemingly in the cards next week, Unless Ma Nature pulls some sort of surprise. 

RAINFALL

We have a more complete picture of rainfall on Sunday, and it really was pathetic. A few places in north central Vermont, around Lamoille County managed about a quarter inch.  Other areas north of Route 2 managed to receive 0.1 to 0.2 inches, which falls well short of a soaker. 

Southern Vermont only got a few hundreds of an inch.

We definitely need the rain,  as is obvious to anyone who has seen everybody's lawn go brown. The Lake Champlain level was at 93.85 feet as of Sunday. That's the lowest level for mid-August in 34 years. The lake usually hits its lowest point later in the autumn. 

The computer models  have been flip flopping a bit on prospects for expected rainfall tomorrow, Earlier forecasts had most of the rain north, but now, southern Vermont seems to be the target for a little relief,

As of this  morning, forecasts call for perhaps a third to as much as a half inch of rain tomorrow, if we're lucky south of Route 4.  Northern areas miss out with a trace to maybe just a tenth of an inch of rain tomorrow.  I expect a few more forecast adjustments between now and tomorrow, so stay tuned. 

After that, it gets dry and warm again through Saturday. A cold front toward Sunday is our next chance of rain.

This far in advance, it's hard to know how much rain we'll get. Some computer models slow the front down near us, which would prolong the rain.  That would be great, but I'll believe it when I see it.  

Hurricane Erin Update: It Maintains Its Power. North Carolina Evacuations As Storm Surge, Tropical Storm Watch Issued

This afternoon's satellite view of Hurricane Erin,
Tropical storm and storm surge watches just
went up for coastal North Carolina. 

Hurricane Erin continues to cause a lot of headaches and worries, especially for a storm that will not make landfall.  

As of 5 p.m. today, Hurricane Erin's top winds were still at 140 mph, up from 125 mph on Sunday. It was catered about 815 miles, south, southeast of Cape Hatteras and moving toward the northwest at 10 mph.

A tropical storm and storm surge watch were issued late this afternoon for much of Cape Hatteras/the Outer Banks as winds there should reach at least 39 mph when Erin makes its closest approach Wednesday night and Thursday.

To nobody's surprise, evacuation orders went up for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Hurricane Erin will not make direct landfall in the United States. But the power of Erin, and its expanding wind field, will stir up enormous waves.

Under a Dare County, North Carolina emergency order, tourists to the outer banks were told to start getting out by 10 a.m. today. Permanent residents need to start leaving by 8 a.m. tomorrow.  Long lines of cars could be seen today on Route 12, heading north off Hatteras Island to destinations inland. 

The problem for North Carolina is that Hurricane Erin is already larger in size than most hurricanes, and it's getting even bigger.  As of late this afternoon, hurricane force winds of 74 mph or more extended out 80 miles from the center and those tropical storm winds go out 230 miles from the center. 

Although Erin is generally moving in the direction forecasters have said for days it would, the hurricane will pass a little closer to Cape Hatteras than meteorologists thought a few days ago. So that makes the impacts a little worse than originally thought. 

All these factors mean waves of 15 to 20 or more feet are forecast to slam into the Outer Banks, which would cause terrible erosion, flooding and destruction of coastal homes and other buildings,

The only real way in or out of the Outer Banks is Route 12. Emergency managers are sure the road will be inundated and impassable as Erin blows by.   If anybody stays behind, emergency responders won't be able to reach them. That's why they're kicking everybody out of the Outer Banks. 

In Rodanthe, North Carolina, at least two homes are in grave danger of collapsing into the ocean when Erin passes through. More than a dozen homes have fallen into the ocean since 2020, including six last year. 

Sea level rise and increasingly ferocious storms due to climate change are at least partly to blame for all this. Additionally the land in the region is slowly sinking as well.

There are unconfirmed reports of 50 rescues at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina today already due to high surf and rip currents. 

Erin might be weakening a tiny bit late this afternoon, thanks to some dry air the hurricane gulped in today from the north. But the weakening will either stop, or be so slow as to not make a difference on how it affects North Carolina, or anyplace else for that matter. 

Tropical storm conditions are already hitting or soon will hit the Turks and Caicos, and much of the Bahamas. It'll also eventually get stormy in Bermuda. 

In Puerto Rico, the outer rain bands of Erin were enough to bring winds and rains heavy enough to cut power to 50,000 customers. The Virgin Islands also dealt with gales and flooding Sunday.

Dangerous surf, rip currents and waves are expected up and down the entire United States East Coast and most of Canada's east coast as well this week.  

 

Watch House Get Struck By Lightning, Burn Down

A home burns in Spring, Texas shortly after a 
lightning strike. Not all lightning strikes cause fires
like this but once they get going, the
blazes can move pretty fast.

 It's amazing how quickly a lightning strike can can cause chaos.

 Thunderstorms rumbled through the Houston area last Friday, typical weather in that humid part of the nation. 

But lightning is always dangerous and often destructive, and we have a classic case here. Doorbell cameras caught lightning hitting a house. Within minutes, almost the entire roof was in flames.

It looks like a somewhat newer house, and this type modern wood frame homes seem to burn down awfully fast once they catch.  

Watch the videos: 

The first video shows a house being struck by lightning in Spring, Texas, a suburb north of Houston. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Moments have the strike, the house looked like what you see in the next video. The house is essentially a total loss, even though neighbors called the fire department immediately after the strike and those firefighters got there quickly. 

The roof and attic are gone, and I'm sure the rest of the house is trashed by heat, fire, smoke and water. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

I had a little trouble finding reliable statistics on house fires caused by lightning. One source, lightningrods.com, could well have an agenda, but here's what they said 

They claim that one in 200 homes are hit by lightning annually, though many of those don't cause fires. Lightningrods,com also say that between 2014-2018 U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated 22,600 fires started by lightning. 

That statistic didn't break down what percentage were in homes, businesses, other buildings and no buildings at all. It looks like that was the most recent data available, too.

Up here in Vermont, we don't have nearly as many thunderstorms as, say, Florida and Texas, so we're somewhat safer from these house fires. Unfortunately, though, you never know, 

On the bright side, no lightning storms are in the forecast until at least Saturday, and thunderstorm season up here will soon draw to a close, 

 

Deep Dive Into Canadian Fires/Smoke: Canada Nightmare, Dangerous Smoke, Climate Change and Politics

Wildfire smoke from Canada turns the evening sun into
just a red dot over Georgia, Vermont on 
August 3, 2025. 

 It's been a smoky summer here in Vermont and much of the rest of the United States because, as you've already heard. Canada is burning again. 

It's the third year in a row that Canada has experienced unprecedented fires. So far, as of earlier this week, 16 million acres have burned, and the fires rage on. Last year, about 13 million Canadian acres burned. 

In 2023, the big, bad year for Canadian fires, nearly 40 million acres went up in smoke. That year, and now this year, are several times worse than each of the other Canadian fire years on record. 

Down here in Vermont, we'd seen smoky days before. Usually from Canadian fires. But in 2023 we entered a whole new world, thanks to Canada's fiery new reality.  Two years ago, many of the big fires north of the border were close by,  in Quebec. 

Since the smoke didn't have far to go to bother us, so it was pretty thick by the time it crossed the border into Vermont. 

This year, Quebec isn't causing the problem. In July, that province had the lowest number of fires in the past 10 years, CBC News reported.

As of Tuesday, just five small fires were burning in Quebec. CBC continues: "The province has seen around 170 fires so far this year, which is more than 200 fewer than the 10-year average,,,,,,In 2023, over 4.5 million hectares of forest burned in  Quebec, compared to 3,000 hectares so far this year."

Much of Quebec just had a super dry heat wave, and prospects for a lot more rain up there are fairly slim.  Quebec forests might be on the verge of bursting into flames.

Some of the fires are burning in unexpected areas. Newfoundland has been oddly hit hard, as you wouldn't expect that stormy, chilly corner of the world to catch on fire all that much.

As of last week, three out of control fires burned near St. John's and in central Newfoundland St. John's is Newfoundland's biggest city with a population of about 110,000. Another fire recently started near  the south coast. 

The series of fires in Newfoundland have prompted evacuations for the past several weeks. More people might well need to flee this week.  Several homes have already been lost to the Newfoundland flames. 

As of August 6, this year was already Canada's
second worst wildfire year on record. 

More people are awaiting possible evacuation alerts as three out-of-control wildfires continue to burn throughout Conception Bay and central Newfoundland, and a fourth fire has ignited in Red Harbour on the Burin Peninsula.  

Oddly hot, dry weather has hit Newfoundland over the past week or two.  One town in Newfoundland hit 98 degrees last week, the province's hottest temperature on record.  

 HEALTH EFFECTS 

As of August 6, Montreal had been under air quality alerts five times so far this year, They got through last year with no such alerts, In 2023, Montreal was under air quality alerts on 19 days. 

Air quality alerts have been piling up in the United States, of course. You alway see tips on how to keep yourself safe from the smoke,  But there's really no escape from it. 

Wildfire smoke is obviously not good for us to breathe.    On days when the air quality index is around 100 to 200, it's similar to smoking a quarter to a half pack of cigarettes a day, May-Lin Wilgus, a pulmonologist and professor at UCLA told NPR.  

That's bad enough for healthy people.  Emergency room visits skyrocket during smoky periods. During the Canadian wildfires two years ago, emergency room visits for asthma in the U.S increased by almost 20 percent.

Wildfire smoke can exacerbate cardiovascular illnesses. Evidence is also growing the smoke can cause a higher risk of developing dementia.

Prospects for smoke clearing anytime soon are dim. The smoke from Canada has thinned, at least for now. But now, much of the western United States is bursting into flames, and that smoke will no doubt make cross country trips through the Midwest and East.  

The smoke probably won't entirely clear until the snow flies.      

POLITICIANS PLAY WITH FIRE

 True to form, U.S. politicians are sticking their noses into the Canadian wildfires, because they smell political MAGA talking points along with the smoke. So we get sad, silly moments like the following:  

Per CBC:

"In a Wednesday news release, Wisconsin state Rep. Calvin Callahan joined other Republican state lawmakers from Iowa, Minnesota and North Dakota in filing a formal complaint against Canada to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin and the International Joint Commission."

New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik also weighed in, sending letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney telling him, "The scale and severity of these fires continues to raise concerns about Canada's fires management and lack of effective deterrence of human caused fires."

I guess these Republicans are maybe suggesting Canada simply rake its forests like Donald Trump said California should do. Because cleaning and removing leaves, fallen trees, dead trees and more from  the nearly million square miles of forests in Canada is as simple as raking your front lawn in October right?

Forest management is of course a serious topic. It's just that Canada's vast, remote forests can't effectively be managed like many in the United States. Those Canadian forests are just not accessible enough for tree thinning and that sort of thing 

These Republicans are also kissing Trump's ass, trying to pretend to be in agreement that the U.S. should take over Canada as our 51st state so we can "do it right."

Never mind that climate change has increased the chances that Canada's forests will burn every summer.

"We're seeing the effects of prolonged drought, of a lot less snow in the wintertime, leading to drier soils, drier conditions and the early onset of the fire season in the spring," University of Vermont Professor of Forest, Ecology and Forestry recently told WCAX.

By the way, Stefanik, Trump and many other MAGA Republicans support greater use of fossil fuel and cuts to EPA rules that aim to tamp down climate change

If Republicans were honest, we'd keep our own house in order U.S. currently has a growing list of its own wildfires, many of which continue to expand and worsen as I write this. 

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said U.S. Republicans were throwing a "timber tantrum," with their whining about the Canadian wildfire smoke. 

"These are attention-seekers who can't come up with a good idea on health care or on making life more affordable... so they're playing games with something that's very serious."

I also noticed the MAGA politicians have shut their traps in recent days as Canadian smoke waned and western United States wildfires rapidly gained ground. 

Maybe we should send Callahan, Stephanik to manage our western forest, or as their god would say, rake those forests. 

That Was A Sudden Introduction To Autumn! But The Building Vermont Drought Continues

This view of the Green Mountains  in Shrewsbury, Vermont
at around 12:30 p.m.Sunday shows a slightly hazy
and very warm Sunday under way...... 

Boy, what an abrupt change in the weather across Vermont Sunday! 

As expected, that cold front really meant business. Once it came through your neck of the woods, you went from summer heat to autumn chill in a snap. 

If you didn't know the cold front was coming, it seemed Burlington was headed for another 90 degree day. It was up to 85 degrees by 11 a.m. Then things went the other way. It was down to 60 degrees by 4 p.m., the time of day when the temperature usually peaks. 

Similar temperature crashes occurred across pretty much all of Vermont, though they came late in the day in southern parts of the state. Rutland went from 85 degrees at 2 p.m to 67 at 5 p.m. and 59 at 7 p.m. 

A temperature drop that big and that quick is unusual with any cold front.  You get something like this in the winter sometimes, but in the summer it's almost unheard of. It's been a really weird temperature month.

First, a heat wave with desert dry air instead of the usual humidity and now this weird temperature drop.   

Then, to make things just a little extra bizarre, in the evening,  it started to warm up ever so slightly again in northern Vermont, as the paltry rain with the front departed and clouds thinned a little.  

Rainfall was paltry, especially considering how strong the cold front was. A very few places got lucky with isolated downpours ahead of the front, like in Shrewsbury, Vermont, where I spend Sunday. 

Rutland, just a little northwest of Shrewsbury, got just 0.02 inches of rain. Burlington reported a scant 0.08 inches and Montpelier a barely noticeable 0.05 inches 

That was not the soaker we needed, that's for sure. 

OUTLOOK

.....By 5 p.m, it was chilly and overcast in Shrewsbury
and low clouds were beginning to obscure the mountains.
Temperatures by then had fallen into the low 60s

Unfortunately, there's not much rain in the forecast. Today will be sunny and cool, so that won't help with our building drought.  

Temperatures this afternoon will only make it to within a few degrees either side of 70, much cooler than average for this time of year.  

Clouds will increase during the day Tuesday, but no rain. Highs should make it into the 70s.  

A weak system does look like it wants to come through on Wednesday with some light rain. At this point, this one looks pretty lame, too.

 If current forecasts hold -  and that's a big if -  there could be as much as a third of an inch of rain near the Canadian border. That would taper down to just a trace or a few hundreds of an inch in southern Vermont. 

There's a chance Wednesday's rain might stay further north, which would leave Vermont with very little rain. Let's hope not!

Then it back to dry weather and a warming trend at the end of the week. 

Another cold front might bring a little more rain  next weekend.  But from this distant view, early indications are the rainfall then might also not amount to all that much. 

Hurricane Erin Slightly Weaker But Still Mighty. Also, Ignore The Hype Machine

Satellite view of Hurricane Erin just after dawn this
morning. You can't really see the eye as it's going
through what is known as an eyewall replacement
cycle. The hurricane is reorganizing. 

Monster Hurricane Erin as of this morning continues to behave itself about as well as a powerful hurricane can.  

It is still resolutely on course to avoid direct hits on any land, though of course the storm will continue to cause its share of trouble.  

Hurricane Erin has calmed down ever so slightly from its flashy strengthening on Saturday. You'll remember it was an extreme hurricane - Category 5 with top winds of 160 mph.

Early this morning, Erin was down to a top wind speed of 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center tells us.  That's still wicked dangerous, but it's no longer quite at the top of the scale. 

Last night, Hurricane Erin looks like it is going through  began to go through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. You might be familiar with the eye of a hurricane, that small clear center surrounded by the storm's most powerful winds.

That circle of powerful winds around the center of a hurricane is called the eyewall. The eye of a hurricane.  An eyewall replacement cycle is when it sort of collapses and forms a new eyewall, often larger than the original.

When this happens, a hurricane will usually weaken. They can re-strengthen after the cycle is complete. That might happen with Erin, but predicting the strength of a hurricane is even harder than forecasting its path. 

Hurricane Erin continues more or less on its predicted path, says the National Hurricane Center.  Its turn to the north might be a little more gradual than some previous forecasts, but it's happening.

The hurricane is getting larger in size, so islands pretty far from its center will see some rough weather. 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are under a tropical storm warning and the eastern Bahamas are under a tropical storm watch because the outer bands of Hurricane Erin will lash those places as it passes by to the east.  

AVOIDING THE HYPE

Ignore any clickbait you'll see on social media regarding Hurricane Erin. It's not going to hit Florida. And at worse, it's only going to give a glancing blow to North Carolina's Outer Banks. 

There will probably be some big waves and dangerous rip currents from Hurricane Erin on Florida's east coast,  and the rest of the U.S. East Coast for that matter, but that's about it. 

Floridians have some very understandable PTSD when it comes to hurricanes, given the storms they've had in recent years.  Telling everyone online that Florida is going to get hit by Erin is great for clicks and revenue, but pretty cruel and unethical when you know that's not going to happen. 

To be clear, my dear Floridians: Don't worry about Erin unless you plan to go swimming at Daytona Beach or something like that. 

If you want the best, most accurate forecasts about storms like Erin, go to the National Hurricane Center. 

Almost all the information I share about Hurricane Erin, or any tropical storm or hurricane I mention in this here blog thingy comes almost completely from the National Hurricane Center.

That's by far the most reliable source of information and forecasts for any tropical storm. Yes, Trump budget cuts have hurt the National Hurricane Center, but they're still doing fantastic work keeping us safe with their storm forecasts. 

Other great and reliable sources of hurricane information are The Weather Channel and a lot of local meteorologists near where you live. If you're in Florida, especially near Miami, pay attention to John Morales, who is really just about the top hurricane forecaster out there. If you're in Texas, especially the Houston area, rely on Matt Lanza, he's also top of the line. 

Lanza has a tropical weather blog called The Eyewall, which is a must-read for anyone worried about hurricanes and tropical storms.