Stats Confirm: This July Is Yet Another Hot One, Third One In A Row

A severe thunderstorm over Lamoille County on 
July 10, as seen from a distance from Williston
Vermont. Other than that date, severe 
weather was pretty infrequent in our hot,
humid Vermont July, 2025

 I'm sure you felt and melted in Vermont's tropical July, 2025, and I have the receipts to prove it.

This July was another summer month that didn't really feel like Vermont.   

In Burlington, the mean temperature was 74.6, tying with 1975 and 1995 as the sixth warmest on record. 

This was the third July in a row that was among the top ten warmest on record.  Six of the top 10 warmest Julys have happened since 2018. 

Montpelier had its fifth warmest July on record. 

Unlike June, there was never any super extreme heat. No record highs. The heat was fairly persistent, but not as relentless as last year. We managed to see a substantial break in the tropical conditions on July 20-23 and the 31st. 

Still,  Burlington had eight days that got to 90 degrees or more. Only ten other Julys in the past 125 years had as many or more such days. 

It's telling how much climate change has altered our perception of a "normal" summer.    Under the "new normal" which is the average of temperatures between 1990 and 2020,  July in Burlington was a mere 2.2 degrees above this warmer "average".

Average temperature were much lower in most of the 20th century, of course. In July, 1975. the month Burlington just  tied with for sixth warmest, was at the time more than five degrees warmer than average. 

Rainfall

July in Vermont was dry, except in the Northeast Kingdom, parts of which had a destructive flash flood on July 10.  The month was also a little on the wet side in the extreme northwest. Burlington was close to normal, while my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a pretty soggy 6.5 inches of July rain. 

Extreme southwest Vermont was also a little on the wet side, but overall, most of the state was dry. A lot of places missed out on many of the typical midsummer shower and thunderstorms.

So far, drought hasn't developed, thanks to the wet spring and early summer.   Given the current forecast, though, I think some parts of Vermont will soon be declared "abnormally dry" though not in drought unless the rain falters for weeks on end. 

St. Johnsbury, having endured by far its wettest month on record last July with an incredible 17 inches of rain, was one of the driest spots in Vermont this year. They only had about 2.4 inches of rain, or about half the usual installment for July. Rutland came up about two inches short for July rainfall 

St Johnsbury is just south of the area hit be the July 10 flash floods in the Northeast Kingdom, which really was the only real extreme weather event of the month, other than the heat and humidity. The July 10 event severely damaged at least a couple homes, and washed away sections of road in Sutton, West Burke and East Haven. 

Thick wildfire smoke from Canada obscures the view for
these fishing enthusiasts at St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on July 26

That same day, severe thunderstorms in Addison County caused some flooding, and tore part of the roof off of Middlebury Union High School.  

Other than that, there were only widely scattered instances of severe thunderstorm damage in Vermont during July, which is usually the peak of what passes for the Green Mountain States severe storm season. 

The other hazard we dealt with was wildfire smoke from Canada. That's been happening most summers lately, in part another negative consequence of climate change. 

 Unlike in the upper Midwest, the smoke in Vermont usually wasn't that bad this July, 

Except on July 26, when the air quality in Vermont was some of the worst ever seen. 

LOOKING AHEAD

In June, NOAA released its outlook for July, indicating it would be a hot month around here. They were right. That forecast also leaned hesitantly toward July being a wee bit wetter than normal.  I give that a win, too, since a few places in Vermont had some extra precipitation, while others were dry.  

As we know, August is opening with cool weather. That won't last. Forecasts have us shifting to warmer than normal temperatures by Sunday afternoon, 

We lose about an hour and a half of daylight, so normal temperatures will start to cool, especially during the second half of the month.  That's only if we have some semblance of a typical pattern.

We do know that after we get through today and tomorrow, odds lean really heavily toward above normal temperatures through mid-month, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Precipitation chances during the first half of the month in this forecast seem to be near normal, maybe ever so slightly leaning toward heavier than normal toward mid month. 

Beyond mid month, forecasts get even more tenuous. The deeper into the future you go, the higher the odds forecasts will be off. Still, NOAA's three to four week outlook released today still leans pretty strongly toward above normal temperatures here. Rainfall is a tossup between above or below normal, so take your guess. 

Remarkable Vermont Temperature Crash On Friday, But It Won't Last

Some interesting patterns in an otherwise dull gray
overcast in St. Albans, Vermont late Friday afternoon,
Friday was much cooler than the most of the rest of
our sticky, steamy July was. 

Well, Friday was a change, that's for sure.  

Unlike most of Vermont's July, which featured a lot of warmth and humidity, it got downright chilly.  Especially under the rain clouds in southern Vermont. Not that I'm complaining. 

Looking at the receipts, the change in the weather was striking. Especially for summer, when there's usually not a lot of variability in temperatures. 

Springfield, Vermont really has had a southern flavored summer so far, enduring 15 days so far this year of 90 degrees or more,. 

On Thursday. it was 90 degrees at 4 p.m. in Springfield.  Exactly 24 hours hours later, at 4 p.m. Friday, it was 62 degrees. That 28-degree drop must have been a shock to the system.

Over in Bennington, it was only 61 degrees at 4 p.m. In Vermont this time of year, it should be at least 80 degrees at that hour. 

As expected, the heavier rain Friday was confined to far southern Vermont. Bennington picked up 1.19 inches, and Woodford State Park had an inch.

Once you got about 20 miles north of Route 9, precipitation was much lighter. Townsend and Springfield only had a quarter inch of rain. Rutland had only 0.02 inches. North of that, just sprinkles. 

Away from Vermont, also as expected, there was flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic states. Like there's been a zillion times this summer, it seems. 

Back here in the Green Mountain state, skies cleared even faster than expected Friday evening, so temperatures were able to get pretty cool by this morning, especially along and north of Route 4, where it was clear the longest. Most of northern and central Vermont was down in the 40s. 

The perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 37 degrees. Burlington was at 51 degrees at 6 a.m. today, the coldest temperature there since June 3.

COOL AT FIRST  

The peak of summer is over, and temperatures Friday and this morning seem to prove it. But summer is not done with us, at all.  We have a lot of warm air to get to. Eventually. 

The dreariness we saw Friday is gone. It's back to bright sunshine, which will boost afternoon readings back up into the 70s.  That's still a little cool for this time of year, but not be that much. A few puffy clouds will grace our  blue skies. today, so it's be pretty out there.  We'll only have a  faint hint of that persistent wildfire smoke from Canada.

Dawn Saturday will be just as chilly as this morning. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will ensure that. But another sunny day Saturday will bring temperatures well into the 70s to near 80. The wildfire smoke might be a little more noticeable than today, but not so thick as to be a major health hazard. 

Saturday night will be another cool, comfortable night.

THE WARMUP

This cool spell will be short-lived, much shorter than forecasts from about a week ago indicated. This is one persistent summer.

By Sunday, we'll be back in the 80s as that cool, big high pressure moves off to our east a little. Every day next week will be in the 80s for most of us. There could even be a 90 degree reading in hot spots like Springfield. 

Usually, in the summer, once big high pressure passes to the east, both temperatures and humidity surges

This time the temperature will definitely go up, but the humidity will stay pretty reasonable. Dew points near 50 today and tomorrow will rise to near 60 or starting Sunday and stay that way going through at least Wednesday. That's vaguely humid if you're sensitive to it, but it's nowhere near oppressive and awful.

The humidity won't go up much because the strong high pressure that's causing this long period of sunshine and dry weather will stay near Quebec and New England. It won't have a good connection to the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. 

Forest Fires

The long stretch of mostly sunny, dry weather, with minimal chances of showers, means we'll have to watch for forest fire hazards. We already had a forest fire in Fair Haven last week that covered at least 12 acres. The was a small brush fire in Alburgh a couple days ago. 

I have a feeling that some errant camp fires or backyard burns or flicked cigarettes could touch off a few more fires in and around Vermont this week. It won't be anything cataclysmic like what's going on in Canada, but we still don't need to add to the problem. 

There are signs we could see a period of hot, and notably more humid air toward the end of next week. That's a long way off and things could still change. 

But it'll be awhile before we see the cool, brisk and crisp breezes of autumn. 

It won't be  until later next week that the humidity will be able to surge in.