Ominous Stat: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Way Under-Performed This Winter And Set A Bad Record

The winter "maximum" sea ice extent in the Arctic was
the lowest on record this year. That's an ominous sign for 
more climate change coming down the pike.

 It's official.

The extent of Arctic sea ice, which normally reaches its peak in March, was pretty pathetic this year. 

It's a sign climate change continues unabated, and it's a factor that could help accelerate the problem. 

First, the immediate issue at hand, per the Washington Post:

 "Just 5.53 million square miles of ice had formed as of March 22 this year - the smallest maximum extent in the 47-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Since then the ice has already begun to melt again."

WaPo goes on:

"The record comes age a grim time for ice in all corners of the globe. In Antarctica, which has historically been more isolated from the effects of human-causing warming, sea ice shrank this month to the second lowest extent on record.  Research published in the journal Nature in February found that Earth's glaciers are dwindling at an accelerating rate,"

Back up there in the Arctic, this year's maximum ice extent was 31,000 square miles smaller than the previous record. That 31,000 square miles is about the same size as South Carolina. 

The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the globe. This winter was a classic example. Some areas of the far north were as much as 22 degrees Fahrenheit above average, which helps explain why Arctic ice didn't freeze as it should have

When there's less sea ice, the Arctic can warm even faster. More ice means when the sun shines on those gleaming white surfaces, bouncing the sun's heat back up into space.

When there's blue open water instead of ice up there in the Arctic, the sun's warmth is absorbed by that water Or as WaPo explains:

"With so little sea ice in the Arctic this year, more sunlight will be able to reach the open ocean, which absorbs more than 90 percent of the radiation that hits it. This will further warm the region, accelerating ice melt and exposing even more water to the light."

That's known as a feedback loop. Arctic ice melts because of climate change. That allows more heat to come in, melting even more ice and accelerating climate change even more. 

As I always like to say, what goes on the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.  

Sure, the lack of ice makes the Arctic melt even faster, but the warming effect does to an extent spread all over the world. It would just make our recent spate of record and near record hot years just keep going and going, like some torrid, evil Energizer Bunny.  

A lack of ice in the Arctic won't in itself make sea levels rise. As you've probably heard me say before. If the ice cubes in your glass of gin and tonic melt, it won't make the glass overflow. But the Arctic heat that might last through the summer can bleed on over to the Greenland ice cap, which is above sea level. The more that ice cap melts, the higher sea levels go. 

One Last Round Of Rain With Our Vermont Storm As We Get Ready For Yet Another One

The Killington, Vermont Police Department posted
this photo of a downed utility pole and wires blocking
a road in the resort town after Sunday's ice storm. 

Today's Day 3 of our long Vermont storm that really started Friday night. 

The great news is today will be the easiest of the three days by far.  

We're still suffering the hangover from Sunday's ice. 

All night and into early this morning, the number of homes and businesses still without electricity in Vermont stayed stubbornly above 5,000, after peaking art around 10,000 yesterday. 

Bottom line: Today's not a perfect weather day of course, but those are kind of rare this time of year anyway. 

Temperatures are warming up, and we should make it into the 60s today for a brief break from our wintry mess.  

The remaining snow and ice from the weekend should disappear for most of us pretty quickly today, it it hasn't already. Here in St. Albans, we had about six inches of new snow Saturday morning. Less than 48 hours, when I got up this morning and looked out the window, you'd never we ever had any snow. 

There is a few changes to the forecast. For most of us, the expected line of showers should come through Vermont in the morning and early afternoon, though there might be some showers behind that line.  

Earlier, we thought the bulk of the showers would be later this afternoon, but things have sped up a bit. 

Our showers might be briefly heavy with a slight chance you'll hear a rumble of thunder or two. But any heavy rain won't last long in any one place.  

We should have a half inch or less of rain today. Between the lingering rain and the snow and ice melt, the rivers should rise, as we've been saying all along. But if any flooding happens, it will be minor. 

QUICK WINTER RETURN

What had been six inches of snow was seen rapidly
melting off my St. Albans, Vermont driveway 
Sunday afternoon as temperatures rose above 
freezing and rain continued. 

If you thought we were done with winter weather after this past weekend, think again.  First of all, our current storm's cold front will drop us below freezing by Tuesday morning, and most of us won't even make it to 40 degrees Tuesday afternoon. 

By Wednesday morning, most of us will be in the teens, and there could be some single number temperatures in the cold hollows.

Following that is our next storm. With the cold air lingering at first, another round of snow, sleet and freezing rain (sigh!) seems likely Wednesday night. 

The snow probably won't amount to much.  The freezing rain won't accumulate nearly as much ice as the last storm did, so we won't face power outages and tree damage again. 

But, if you're on the roads Wednesday night, you'll probably encounter crappy driving conditions. Things should go over to rain Thursday as we get another squirt of mild air. 

At least the next storm's effects won't be nearly as bad in Vermont as in other places. This next storm is forecast to produce another large severe storm and tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. 

This storm, and a weather front associated with this storm that is expected to stall, looks like it might cause another round of serious flooding in parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas.

Back here in Vermont, don't count on winter ending even after we get through Wednesday night's schmutz. Signs are pointing toward a week long spell of wintry cold and maybe occasional snow starting in about seven days from now. 

Those long range forecasts aren't always right, but the ones I've been seeing have been pretty consistent, so there's that.  

Ice Storm Pretty Much Over In Vermont, Temperatures To Bounce All Over The Place. Still A Minor Flood Risk

Chair lift at Killington Resort coated in ice
today. The resort had to close due to
damage from this morning's ice storm,
but is expected to reopen Monday. 

 As of late Sunday afternoon we can say Hurray!

That's because all winter weather warnings and advisories in Vermont have been dropped. 

Except for maybe some small isolated areas in eastern parts of the state, the freezing rain is over. It hasn't been a nice Sunday afternoon - raw, sometimes rainy, overcast and in the Champlain Valley getting a little windy. But the ice problem is over.

Except the cleanup of course.

It seems like Rutland and Windsor counties, and areas immediately to the north and south of those counties suffered the bulk of the ice issues.

The number of homes and businesses without power in Vermont held roughly steady in the 11,000 range from around 8:30 this morning to mid-afternoon, but were starting to decline late this afternoon, vtoutages.org indicated.

If I had to pick a town that suffered the worst, I'd say Killington. They still had the most outages of any community in Vermont

The gigantic Killington Resort was forced to shut down Sunday. Power was out at much of the resort. Trees along the roads leading to the resort  were collapsing, and blocking traffic. "Trees are continuing to fall around the mountain and trails are beginning to refreeze, creating unsafe conditions for guests and staff," the resort said in a statement. 

Killington expects to reopen for business tomorrow.  At least it will be warm for skiers.

TONIGHT/MONDAY

For most places, the temperature will actually slowly continue to warm overnight. We'll occasionally be harassed by showers, but they won't amount to much, really.

Monday continues to look quite mild, and windy in the Champlain Valley. Most of us valley dwellers should see temperatures reach the low to mid 60s, a huge change from this weekend. Most of the day will feature just scattered showers. 

During the mid to late afternoon a line or broken line of briefly heavy showers and even some thunderstorms will come through Vermont. (This will be the relatively harmless northern extension of a severe weather outbreak expected up and down the East Coast tomorrow).

Any heavy rainfall will be brief. We've already seen the heaviest precipitation with this storm, so we won't have much addition. However, between the melting snow and ice, plus whatever rain we get, I still expect minor flooding Monday and into Tuesday on some Vermont rivers, or at least something close to it. 

Don't worry about major flooding, though.

BEYOND MONDAY, NEW STORM?

We're still looking at a BIG temperature crash Monday night behind the cold front as lows get into the 20s and highs just make it into the 30s Tuesday. 

That sets the stage for the next storm, which frankly still looks similar to the one we had this weekend. 

Lingering cold air will mean the next storm Wednesday night. It's looking like we will once again start off with snow and freezing rain. Before you get too scared, it won't be as bad as this weekend. Probably enough to mess up the roads, but that's it. 

And it will quickly go over to rain by Thursday. 

There's still not a lot of details on the next storm to share. We'll get updates as we get closer.

But I will depress you with one other bit of news. Long range forecasts call for a series of sharp, wintry cold snaps here in Vermont during the first half of April. I hope that's wrong, but I'm throwing that out there! 

Storm That Gave Us Ice In Vermont Is Even More Dangerous And Weird Elsewhere And There's Going To Be A Second Big Storm

That huge orange and yellow area in the middle of the 
nation represents a vast area subject to severe 
thunderstorms and tornadoes today. 

 Sure, it's been miserable in Vermont with this weekend's storm with snow, damaging ice, cold rain and yuck.  

This storm is also causing other problems far and wide.  The worst part of this storm is the severe storm and tornado outbreak that's about to unfold

SEVERE WEATHER

A remarkably huge area of the nation is under threat from damaging thunderstorm winds, huge hail and tornadoes today.  And some of the tornadoes could end up being strong. 

The risk zone today goes from western New York and extreme southern Ontario all the way to the Gulf Coast It also extends from Missouri and Illinois all the way to the western Appalachians. 

This whole area is under the gun from later this morning through tonight for those lines of severe storms and tornadoes.  The highest risk zone for those tornados is in the mid-Mississippi valley, including western Kentucky and Tennessee, eastern Missouri and Arkansas and the northern half of Alabama.

MORE STORMS MONDAY

The severe weather and tornadoes continue tomorrow. This time it will be up and down the East Coast from the eastern Gulf Coast all the way up to New York. 

The greatest risk of tornados runs from Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida and Virginia. A marginal risk of storms with gusty winds extends as far north as southwestern Vermont. 

The severe threat will not be over once the storm departs later Monday, the threat of tornadoes doesn't end. 

ICE STORM

Damage from last night's ice storm in Ontario

It wasn't just us in Vermont that suffered damage from the weight of ice on trees and power lines. 

This storm spread freezing rain far and wide in a band from Wisconsin and northern Michigan, through southern Ontario, across northern New York and into northern New England. 

Residents of northern Michigan were told to shelter in place inside their homes due to the danger of falling and collapsing trees outdoors. 

About 225,000 thousand Ontario residents were without power because of the storm. 

In Michigan, 150,000 people were without power because of the ice this morning. Another 62,000 or so had no electricity in Wisconsin. 

WEIRD TEMPERATURES

The storm set up an extreme and weird temperature contrast in the Northeast on Saturday. 

 At 4 p.m. Saturday, it was 35 degrees in Boston with a little light snow. In New York City's Central Park, it was partly sunny and 80 degrees. 

The weather front dividing the two extremes moved southwestward into the New York City and New Jersey areas yesterday evening.  At 5 p.m. the front had passed through LaGuardia airport east of Manhattan and the temperature there was 51 degrees Also at 5 p.m. the front hadn't reached Central Park in Manhattan yet, so it was still 79 degrees there. 

However, an hour later, at 6 p.m. it was down to 53 in Central Park. 

NEW STORM 

A big new storm is forecast to develop in Colorado Tuesday and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. 

A widespread severe storm and tornado outbreak is forecast to hit the same areas being hit today.  No rest of the weary!

Sunday Vermont Icy Storm Update: A Slow Shift To Thawing Today, But.........

Green Mountain Power shared this photo of icy trees
in Hubbardton, Vermont yesterday. The ice grew
thicker in many areas overnight with more freezing rain
and power outages are widespread in central Vermont

 Our area of freezing rain moved northward through Vermont overnight and this morning as expected, increasing power outages, making more trees sag and in some cases break, and just making things  miserable. 

Meanwhile, this storm is also causing other types of very dangerous, and very weird weather elsewhere in the nation. We also have a brand new storm to talk about for later in this week.

 I'll have more on that interesting stuff later this morning in a separate post. (I don't want to make this one too long and muddled).  

Busy, busy times in the weather department!

THIS MORNING

As expected, the ice out there this morning is pretty patchy.  As of dawn, we were starting a slow climb to above freezing temperatures, and some of us were there already. 

Places like Burlington and Rutland and Springfield were barely above freezing as of 7 a.m. But surely, within just miles of those weather stations, the rain was still freezing in sub-32 degree temperatures. 

If it's above freezing at your house when you read this, you're probably safe from more icing. But some unlucky places especially from the Green Mountains east could endure more freezing rain through the morning and possibly into the afternoon.

Also, as expected, power outages increased dramatically in the wee hours of the morning and continuing after dawn. As of 8:15 a.m. the trend line in power outages was still up, with more than 10,000 Vermont homes and businesses without power.  

Almost all the outages so far have been very roughly within 25 miles either side of Route 4 all the way fro Fair Haven to White River Junction. That makes sense, as this general area was expected to see the thickest ice accumulation. 

Scattered outages might well spread north east of the Green Mountains as rain continues to freeze to the trees and wires all the way to the Canadian border. I don't expect the outages to be super widespread as you head way north, as the ice accumulation won't get into the danger zone in most places. Just a few.

In the immediate Champlain Valley, the ice from overnight is pretty much over.  I noticed a thin glaze of ice on the trees here at my house in St. Albans, Vermont. But as of  7:30 a.m. the temperature here was at 34 degrees, so we're getting no more ice accumulation.  Melting snow was once again sliding off the roof.

Good riddance to the 5.9 inches of snow we received yesterday, frankly.    

REST OF TODAY

Traffic camera image from Route 100 in Ludlow shows
icy trees along the highway this morning. 

As we go along, the rain will tend to get more showery and scattered, but of course it still won't be a nice day. Lingering freezing rain will be very patchy. 

You'll be driving down a wet road with no noticeable ice on the trees, and suddenly, less than a mile down the road, the pavement is icy and the roadside trees are sagging under the weight of that ice.

Ice storm and winter storm warnings were in effect for most of Vermont early this morning. You'll probably see the National Weather Service in South Burlington remove these alerts piecemeal through the day as the ice danger slowly diminishes. 

High temperatures today will actually come tonight.  Readings will crawl upward through the 30s this afternoon, reaching the low 40s in the Champlain Valley and warmer western valleys by dark.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb overnight tonight.

MONDAY

We're still looking at a big but brief surge of very mild air on Monday. Highs will reach well into the 50s with many of us getting pretty decently into the 60s.

The wintry, snowy, ice scenes of today in central and northern Vermont will quickly revert back to our early spring muddy, bare ground.

Continued showers, along with the rapidly melting snow and ice, should get the rivers and streams across Vermont rushing again.  I can certainly see how this could cause some minor flooding, but all indications are we will thankfully escape anything serious. 

At least some of our "usual suspect" Vermont rivers look like they'll reach flood stage on Monday. Current forecasts have the Mad River at Moretown cresting at half a foot above minor flood stage on Monday. The Otter Creek at Center Rutland should be getting pretty close to minor flood stage late Monday or early Tuesday. 

It also looks like the Winooski River at Essex Junction will be very close to minor flood stage by Tuesday.  

So be aware the next couple of days. Some roads right near Vermont's rivers might be closed or at least covered in water.   But we certainly don't have to worry about yet another big flood disaster in Vermont with this storm. We've had enough, thank you.  

A cold front will be approaching Monday afternoon, and there might well be some heavy showers along it, and perhaps a thunderstorm, too. 

AFTER MONDAY

Monday night, it's back to winter as the cold front will bring us back down into the 20s by first thing Tuesday morning.  There might be some icy patches on the roads Tuesday morning from the freeze. But at least the precipitation will be gone. 

It'll only get into the 30s Tuesday afternoon, so pretty chilly for this time of year. Wednesday will be a little warmer, in anticipation of a storm toward Wednesday night and Thursday that might have some similarities to the one we're having now. 

The big difference will be that if there is any snow or ice, it won't be nearly as much as we had this weekend.  That new storm will probably also give us another very brief warmup and a decent shot of additional rain. 

We'll have more details on that when we get closer to the event.  

 

Saturday Evening Vermont Winter Storm Update: Ominous Ice Storm Forecast For Parts Of Central, Southern Parts Of State

Ice accumulation forecast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington. This combines what's already'
happened plus what's going. Areas in dark red, and
especially lavender risk extensive tree and power line
damage between now and Sunday. 

The headline this Saturday evening is that I'm definitely worried about the additional freezing rain coming up tonight and early tomorrow for parts of central and southern Vermont. 

An ice storm warning is now up for most of central and southern Vermont through 8 p.m. Sunday. Expect very difficult travel - and much worse - likely pretty extensive tree and power line damage in some spots. 

There's much more to talk about regarding the ice, but let's set the table with how today went. 

Northern areas got the expected break. Once we got past 9 a.m. it was just light snow and flurries with no additional accumulation.  

The big winner in the accumulation sweepstakes was Fletcher, with 10 inches. Johnson and South Hero had 8.8 inches. Burlington managed to tie today's daily record with 1954 for most snow on March 29 with 7.0 inches. 

People near the Canadian border could actually see brighter skies just to the north late this afternoon.  That does not mean the storm is over by any stretch of the imagination, but it's a break.

Road conditions across the north that were atrocious this morning and pretty good late this afternoon.  They'll get worse again later, but we'll get to that. 

OMINOUS ICE STORM

In parts of central and southern Vermont a few places already have a quarter to nearly a half inch of ice clinging to trees and power lines.

Power outages haven't been too bad - yet.  All day, they've varied from near 100 homes and businesses without power to roughly 1,000.

I do think things will get much worse overnight.  

As of 5:30 p.m. some renewed rain and areas of freezing rain were beginning to move back into far southern Vermont. That will spread northward overnight. 

It's a complex temperature profile, so some places in the ice storm warning zone will only get a little freezing rain. Other spots will get a ton.  And it will be incredibly variable.  One area might be relatively OK, while a spot a couple miles up the road and a couple hundred feet higher or lower in elevation are absolutely slammed.

This is actually very typical of ice storms in mountainous places in Vermont. We saw this kind of thing in the Great Ice Storm of 1998. I remember in that storm driving  up the hill on Interstate 89 between Richmond and Williston. 

Halfway up the hill, it went from no ice on trees, to trees collapsing in a sharp line. Hardly no transition zone. 

Our current ice storm won't be nearly as bad as 1998, but definitely bad enough. 

ICE ACCUMULATION

Ice visible clinging to trees this afternoon in this traffic
cam grab from Hartford, Vermont. Much more ice is possible
tonight and that could cause some serious power
outages and tree damage.

In general, though, expected ice accumulations have gone up dramatically. The biggest worry zone is along and east of the Green Mountains in Rutland and Windsor counties. 

And extending south a little into corners of Windham and Bennington counties and north into some pockets of Addison and Orange counties. 

Between the ice on the trees now and what will hit tonight, everything in some spots by Sunday morning will probably be weighed down by a half inch to as much as an inch of ice in the worst hit areas.

I feel sorry for anybody who has a sugarbush or prized trees in the worst hit areas. If the forecast comes true, the damage will be extensive. 

The power outages might  be hard to fix, too, since there will probably be so much damage. Charge your devices now, those of you living in the ice storm warning zone. 

The precipitation will hit northern Vermont again, too, later tonight and Sunday. It'll likely start off as snow and then go over the freezing rain. There won't be much additional snow, maybe an inch or so. 

Places along and east of the Green Mountains in the northern half of the state will see up to a quarter inch of ice, which would cause some scattered power outages, but nothing like we expect further south.

The Champlain Valley will see a glaze of ice by early Sunday, too, but I don't think it will be enough to cause problems, other than dangerous road conditions. 

As chilly temperatures slowly relax Sunday, any freezing rain will change to a cold rain. But in areas protected from any warming winds will hang on to more icing well into the afternoon. Luckily rainfall rates will decrease noticeably in the afternoon.

MONDAY

This still isn't the biggest deal of this storm, but we're still expecting a brief squirt of very warm, humid for the season air on Monday. Most of us will reach the 50s and 60s. Showers will continue, and as a cold front approaches in the afternoon, heavy showers and even a few thunderstorms look like they'll develop. 

Flooding from melting snow and ice and the warm temperatures and the rain still looks like it will be minor, but we'll have to keep watching this. If rain ends up being heavier than expected, the flood situation could worsen.

I'm not too worried about that now, but it is worth monitoring. 

Ugly Vermont Winter Storm Is Here, Playing Out As Expected So Far, Some New Nuances To Forecast, Dangerous Ice Central Vermont

The latest National Weather Service ice accumulation
forecast map is the most worrying about this storm,
Red areas are at risk for some power outage. If you
click on the map and make it bigger, you see areas of
darker red in southern Vermont. That's where ice
could accumulate to at least a half inch, which
can cause a lot of damage to power lines. 

 As of dawn, our early spring winter storm here in Vermont is playing out pretty much as expected.

Which is actually a little surprising given how easily the forecast could have been wrong.  Subtle shifts in the position of the the weather front would make a big difference. 

It's been all snow roughly north of Route 2. There will be very little ice up there today. Accumulations so far include 9 inches in Jeffersonville 8 inches in Fairfax, Georgia and Westford and 7 inches in Morrisville.

Here in St. Albans, Vermont I had 5.8 inches of new snow as of 7:30 this morning. 

Snow was tapering off north, so it looks like the forecast of five to nine inches was pretty accurate.

The record for the most snow in Burlington today today is 7.0 inches in 1954. It's iffy as to whether they'll get there. 

There's already freezing rain in a band across central Vermont, and that's the area I'm most worried about. Between what happens today and then again tonight and early Sunday, some areas in the central and southern Green Mountains risk a lot of tree and power line damage from this storm.

Green Mountain Power tells us they have a full crew on deck ready to help restore power, and they're getting some help on standby from other areas as well. 

I noticed as of 7 a.m. Vermont traffic cameras showed trees along Route 7 in Brandon, Route 4 on Mendon Mountain and Interstate 89 near Bethel and along Interstate 91 in southeastern Vermont  beginning to sag under the weight of ice from freezing rain. 

Traffic cam image from Route 103 in Mount Holly, Vermont
shows freezing rain already accumulating on 
trees and power lines. 

The ice looked especially nasty in the trees and utility wires along Route 103 in Mount Holly. 

There were already some outages as of 7:30 this morning, amounting to about 1,000 customers, mostly around Brandon and Leicester.   

Far southern Vermont was getting rain or nothing at all early this morning. 

Needless to say, road conditions in central and northern Vermont are atrocious this morning. 

THE REST OF TODAY

Near and north of Route 2, the main action at least for now was this morning. The worst of the snow for today is over up there. It looks like those areas will get a bit of a break this afternoon and evening. 

A weak wave of low pressure riding along the stalled west to east weather front will go by to our east, and the front will slowly start to sink southward. Both those facts mean the heavy snow this morning will turn into just cloudy skies and maybe a little patchy light snow or freezing drizzle at times.

The fact the break will happen during the day is good. The strong spring sun should work through the clouds a bit. It won't melt all that snow we got early today, but it will at least help road crews get the highways in better shape. It might even briefly get above freezing in spots. 

Precipitation should continue today in central and southern Vermont, but even there, it will be lighter than it is this morning. Still, a little more freezing rain will continue to slowly weigh down trees and power lines in some spots. 

By late afternoon, most of the precipitation will be focused in far southern Vermont. 

After that, the front will stall again, then slowly start to lift northward again

TONIGHT

As the front slowly goes north, rain and freezing rain will start to move north with it.  This is where things start to get bad in central Vermont.  There could be a lot of freezing rain tonight and the first half of Sunday.

Broader valleys west will probably go to a cold rain fairly quickly on Sunday morning, but the the freezing rain will continue in the Green Mountains and valleys east of those mountains. 

Remember yesterday, I mentioned that you start to get a little tree damage and power line problems when you get a quarter inch of ice. You get to a half inch and the power lines and trees really get in trouble.

The latest ice accumulation maps from the National Weather Service depict a half inch or more of ice in the hills and valleys either side of Route 100 between about Weston and Rochester. There's even spot on the map northeast of Manchester drawn as having 0.75 inches of ice.

If you live in these areas especially, charge your devices today. You could be in for some lengthy power outages. 

The rain and freezing rain will continue north overnight and Sunday morning. In the Champlain Valley, it could be pretty icy early Sunday morning, but then we'll transition to a cold rain for the rest of the day. That rain will tend to taper off again during the afternoon and evening

In the colder hollows east of the Green Mountains all the way to the Canadian border, freezing rain could be a problem most of the day, though again, precipitation will tend to taper off during the later part of the day. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

Temperatures will continue to slowly warm Sunday night as scattered light showers linger.

Warm air still looks like it will surge across Vermont Monday, bringing us all well into the 50s and 60s for highs. 

It probably won't rain much until later in the day, when a cold front approaches. There could even some thunderstorms mixed in with this. In fact, on Monday, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center predicts severe thunderstorms up and down the east coast, and a marginal (very slight) risk of a severe storm extends all the way up into southwest Vermont.

It still looks like the rapidly melting snow and ice and the renewed rains Monday will bring river levels up, but so far it's still looking like if we get any flooding at all, it will be pretty minor. 

Stay tuned for more updates on this storm as we get 'em!  

Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Awful Wintry Mess Tonight, Saturday. Pretty Bad Sunday, Too. And Monday Weirdness

Still looking at a good thump of snow in northern Vermont,
mostly overnight and Saturday. This snow forecast map
updated Friday afternoon.

We're gearing up for our big weekend storm and here is a very quick Friday evening update.

The forecast remarkably hasn't changed too much since this morning. Note that meteorologist still think there could be big changes in the forecast if the position of a nearly stalled weather front shifts unexpectedly. 

There are a few forecast updates as of Friday afternoon.  

Here they are:

The winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for  most of the Northeast Kingdom, north central Vermont and parts the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  

There, five to nine inches of snow is expected, mostly late tonight and Saturday morning. The heaviest snow north will probably come down from a little before midnight tonight to mid morning Saturday. 

Lighter precipitation is likely in the afternoon. . Some sleet and freezing rain is also likely Saturday night and Sunday. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, the winter weather advisory is still in effect. 

In general, it looks like the forecast has maintained expected snow amounts in northern Vermont north Route 2.  It might have cut back the totals by maybe an inch or so in the far northern Champlain Valley, but that's just background noise.   

However, forecasts for the amount of freezing rain have ominously remained the same, mostly in central Vermont. There, meteorologists are thinking many areas could still see at least a quarter inch of ice accumulation, which is another to begin bridging down tree branches and power lines. 

Ice accumulation forecast map updated Friday 
afternoon still looks ominous for central Vermont.
Red zones could have problems with power outages
and tree damage. 

A few places could see a half inch of ice, which would really cause a lot of trouble. Luckily,  knock on wood, the half inch amounts so far at least don't look that widespread. 

It also still looks like a number of areas will still be dealing with freezing rain for the first half of Sunday before temperatures start to rise later in the day. Even where the rain isn't freezing, it will be a cold raw days.

Monday and Tuesday will be shocks to the system.

It looks like rain might taper off for a number of hours Monday and the sun might come out a little. That could bring temperatures up into the 60s for many of us, which is just ridiculously different than Saturday and Sunday will be.

As the cold front approaches later Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few rumbles of thunder. 

Rapid snow melt and rain later in the day could lead to some flooding issues. But we still don't have updates on that, and so far it doesn't look like the flooding will be serious. Knock on wood. 

By late Monday night, it'll be in the 20s, with highs only in the 30s Tuesday. 

It's one of those springs in Vermont, folks!

Vermont/Surrounding Areas Still Girding For Nasty Snow And Ice Storm This Weekend

Latest snow forecast map issued by the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington early Friday. 
Map is through 8 p.m Sunday but virtually all the snow
you see here will hit late tonight and Saturday.  
Areas in yellow would see the most snow, with
at least six inches in those spots. 

One thing hasn't changed since yesterday's forecast:

Saturday looks UG-LEE in Vermont.  

We're still looking at a horrible mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain that will last from late tonight through Sunday. 

SATURDAY'S MESS

Although overall forecasts have not changed much since yesterday, we really won't know who gets the heaviest snow and the worst icing until we're into the event.  

It all depends on where and how this wavering, pretty much stalled weather front sets up.

If forecasters are wrong on the position of the weather front by as little as 20 or 30 miles, then current predictions would be incorrect one way or another. It's virtually impossible to forecast the exact position of a sluggish warm or cold front, so that's why all the meteorologists are hemming and hawing about how much awfulness comes down from the sky Saturday and where. 

For now - again this could well change - it looks like northern Vermont from very roughly Route 2 north will stay with mostly snow on Saturday where four to eight inches of fairly wet snow would pile up.

Just south of that, we should see a band of mixed precipitation, including quite a bit of freezing rain. That ice is part of a lengthy band of freezing rain and schmutz that is or will be extending along a lengthy band from  northern Minnesota, through upper Michigan, across southern Ontario and on into Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.  

Again though, don't be surprised if the snow and ice areas end up shifting northward or southward unexpectedly. 

Here in Vermont, the precipitation will come down pretty heavily at times.  Between the fairly wet snow, and the ice, I expect some power outages to develop here a there. 

And we know the roads will be atrocious.  

The latest ice accumulation forecast from the National 
Weather Service. This map could change drastically by
tomorrow, depending on shifts in the forecast
Areas in red are where at least a quarter inch of 
ice would accumulate. Once you get to a quarter
inch, you start to lose tree branches
and some power lines. 

Toward the end of March, when snow falls lightly, it can melt when it hits the pavement because of a higher sun angle allowing heat to penetrate the clouds. 

But snow and ice will be coming down heavily enough, from thick clouds, so that we won't really get a break from the early spring sun. 

Expect snow and ice covered roads all day, mostly but not exclusively in the northern half of the state. 

If you have to drive anywhere, do it today, as we're not expected any weather problems whatsoever until tonight. 

it looks like there will be a fair amount of plain rain during the day Saturday in far southern Vermont. 

But precipitation could begin as ice early Saturday, go over to rain, then switch back to freezing rain Saturday night as cold air temporarily bleeds southward all the way to near the Massachusetts border. 

SATURDAY NIGHT

That risk of freezing rain in southern Vermont Saturday night is because that front will drift southward overnight, flooding all of Vermont with chillier air from Quebec. Briefly, anyway. Precipitation probably won't come down all that heavily Saturday night, but those areas receiving a little more freezing rain will see a little more weight added to trees and power lines, so that could risk some trouble.

SUNDAY

That front will slowly lift back north starting early in the day. As it looks now, freezing rain will redevelop, but gradually change to a cold rain during the day.  Parts of  eastern Vermont might have trouble getting above freezing you get well into the afternoon 

That makes me worried about really thick accumulations of ice in a few locations by Sunday.  Once ice from freezing rain gets to be a quarter inch thick or more, you start to lose a few tree limbs and power lines.

Once the ice gets to a half inch thick or more, you really start to risk widespread tree damage and big time power outages. 

This morning's ice forecast maps from the National Weather Service - again, definitely subject to change - has a pretty wide area of central Vermont seeing about a quarter to maybe third of an inch of ice.  

Those maps also shows small, limited areas of Vermont with at least a half inch of ice.  But it's going to be a close call. We'll need to keep an eye on this in case some more widespread areas get a lot of ice. If it looks like we might see more freezing rain than expected, the winter weather advisory would be upgraded to an ice storm warning for a few sections of the state. 

Even where ice turns into a cold rain Sunday, the snow and ice won't immediately begin to melt all that fast. Temperatures will hold in the 30s most of the day, so the schmutz on the ground will just soggier.

We'll have to wait until later Sunday night and Monday to see any hint of a return to spring. 

MONDAY

Still looking weird. 

Temperatures - at least for awhile - will rocket upwards into the 50s to maybe some 60s as the rain continues and it turns sort of oddly humid for this time of year. The rain and the rapidly melting snow and ice from the weekend could lead to some flooding problems.  It's a little early to predict how much if any flooding we'll see. 

Rivers will certainly go up, but whether they spill their banks is an open question. But so far it's not looking too serous. 

There could conceivably even be a few non-severe thunderstorms mixed in on Monday. 

It's another thing to keep an eye on, though.

A sharp cold front Monday night will plunge us into the 20s, so all that remaining water out there will freeze up. At least by later Monday night the precipitation will have been mostly flushed away. 

After a cold for the season but bright Tuesday, another storm looks to come along by Thursday.  That one likely will turn out to be mostly rain, and probably not as big as the fun we're going to have this weekend. 

Thursday Evening Storm Update: First Crack At Vermont Snow, Ice Accumulations, But Still Could Be Huge Changes

An early guess on snowfall in Vermont and surrounding
areas Friday night to Sunday morning. Could be a lot
near the Canadian border if current forecasts come true.

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington pulled the trigger this afternoon and issued a winter weather advisory for all of Vermont except the southernmost two counties. 

It goes from late Friday evening all the way to early Sunday afternoon. 

There's new snow and ice accumulation maps out, too, which I'm posting here.  With a big caveat.  The forecast could change drastically.

With the nearly stalled front setting up nearby, ,it won't be the traditional big blob of precipitation. 

Instead, it looks like it will be a narrow band of pretty heavy snow, with an even narrower band of freezing rain just to the south of that. 

The snow band could set up anywhere from southern Quebec to central Vermont. If forecasts issued this afternoon turn out to be accurate,  it looks like the heaviest snow would run along and north of a North Hero to Stowe to St. Johnsbury line. 

The heaviest icing would run through New York's Adirondacks and on through central Vermont. Also depending on where the precipitation sets up and how heavy it gets, the National Weather Service might upgrade the winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning in a few locations. Stay tuned. 

Early guess from the National Weather Service on 
potential ice accumulation from freezing rain Saturday.
Again, big time subject to change. Watch the red
areas on these ice maps, Those were where tree
damage and power outages are most likely.

I have to repeat myself. That forecast is NOT cast in stone. Updates and changes will come. 

Whatever comes out of the sky, it looks like the heaviest precipitation will come through during the day Saturday. 

Travel will be awful through northern and central Vermont if the forecast comes true. The weight of wet snow and ice from the freezing rain could cause some power outages, too. 

SATURDAY NIGHT

The front will probably temporarily sink southward shutting off most of the precipitation overnight. There might be a little drizzle south and a little freezing drizzle central and north. 

SUNDAY

Our pesky front will work its way north again. At first, freezing rain could redevelop in central and northern Vermont causing more tree and power line damage if the ice accumulates enough.

During the morning, the ice should evolve into a cold plain rain, but the freezing rain could linger well into the afternoon east of the Greens.  The rain should fall relatively lightly, but also continue Sunday night

MONDAY

A weird day, probably.  A larger piece of the storminess will come in, lifting the weather front well to our north. Temperatures might soar into the 50s to near 60 in many areas, and it might feel a little humid.

The warm air might get cut off at the pass in far northwestern Vermont, where a sharp cold front will pre-empt the brief warming. Between the melting snow and continued rain, there could be some flooding problems, but so far, river forecasts aren't setting of major alarm bells. We'll keep an eye on it, but so far, it doesn't look too scary.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY

A sharp cold front will freeze everything up again, but at least the precipitation will pretty much be over. After a brief, dry chilly spell Tuesday and Wednesday, another rather wet storm looks like it might arrive Wednesday night and Thursday. 

Early guesses on that storm make me think that one will be mostly rain. 

 

Winter's Last Gasp? Vermont Weekend Storm Will Be A Snowy, Icy, Rainy, Troublesome Mess

As of this morning, I'm still super reluctant to post any
snow or ice accumulation maps for the winter storm
that seems likely this coming weekend. Forecast
or amounts is too uncertain. So, I'll post another
photo of a past icy storm, this one in January, 2017. 

 I'll cut to the chase.  We're in for a big wintry mess of a storm this weekend, with potential heavy snow, possibly enough freezing rain to damage trees and power lines in some spots, followed by the risk of flooding.  

And this one will last a long time. The trouble will arrive late Friday night and probably won't leave us alone until Monday might. 

We still don't know who gets the most snow, the most ice, the most rain. We probably won't, really, until the storm is underway.  A subtle shift in the way weather fronts set up would make a huge difference as to what happens. 

Much more detail to come below, but first, we've already had a bit of a return to winter as an appetizer, and we should update that.

WEDNESDAY/LAST NIGHT

Snow showers were pretty widespread across Vermont all day Wednesday and to extent last night.  A few of these turned into snow squalls, which would lay down a quick half inch to inch of snow. Roads would get briefly dicey under these squalls.

It was warm enough in the valleys during the day that immediately after a snow shower passed, the snow would melt. I awoke Wednesday to a half inch of snow on the ground in St. Albans, which quickly melted. Twice during the day we received a dusting to a  quarter inch of snow that would disappear in an instant once the sun reappeared. This morning, there's another half inch on the ground. 

Mountains were colder and the snow is piling up, giving ski areas a late season break after the mid-month mega thaw. Near the top of Mount Mansfield, snow depth fell from 103 inches at the beginning of the month to 76 inches by March 20. As of yesterday, it was back up to 90 inches, and I'm sure more fell on top of that.

Jay Peak picked up close to six inches of new snow in the 24 hours ending Wednesday afternoon.

NEW STORM DETAILS:

After some morning snow showers diminish today, we actually get some sun with highs in the upper 30s in colder spots to mid 40s in warmer areas like the Champlain Valley. Another disturbance will bring us some light snow showers tonight, followed by a partly sunny, chilly Friday.

Then the real fun begins.

Starting late Friday night and well into Sunday, that nearly stalled front I mentioned in yesterday morning's post will set up over or near Vermont.

The temperature contrast on either side of the front looks even bigger than we thought 24 hours ago. As of this morning, the forecast highs on Saturday are: 73 in Hartford, Connecticut, 54 in Bennington, Vermont, 40 in Rutland, Vermont, 35 in Burlington and 31 in Newport, Vermont.

Meanwhile, moisture-rich air will be riding along this front.

As you can tell by the temperature forecast - it it's accurate - the real trouble should hit central and northern Vermont. 

The wet air will glide up from the south  and go up and over the cold air to the north.  That means snow and mixed precipitation should break out late Friday night and continue Saturday, except maybe in southern Vermont, where it should just rain.

That front might slip south Saturday night, putting more of central and southern Vermont at risk for some ice, but perhaps ending the precipitation far north for a time. 

Then Sunday, the front should begin to lift north again, putting northern and perhaps central Vermont into more snow and ice.  

ACCUMULATION

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington and other local meteorologists are understandably reluctant to issue any accumulation forecasts just yet.  If the nearly stalled front ends up as little as 20 miles north or south of projections, then what comes from the sky at any given time can change drastically 

Northern Vermont could see at least a half foot of snow, or a lot of ice, or a crummy combination of the two or mostly rain. 

Early guesses I've seen bring half a foot of snow to places near the Canadian border. I'm also seeing hints that a few spots could see more than a quarter inch of ice accumulation, which threatens trees and power lines. 

I'm also pretty sure now that road conditions for much of the weekend in central and northern Vermont will be dicey at best. 

On top of all that, early, uncertain indications are that front will finally surge north into Quebec Monday.  If that happens, temperatures across most of Vermont could get above 50 degrees as the rain continues. 

Again, if that scenario plays out, the rain, warmth and melting snow and ice could trigger flood problems. 

We do know there's the potential for a lot of precipitation. If current projections hold, rain, and melted snow and ice would amount to two or three inches of precipitation between Friday night and Tuesday morning, which is a lot for a late March storm. 

I've probably raised more questions that answers for you with this post.  But pay attention to updated forecasts now through the weekend if you live in Vermont, the rest of northern New England, northern New York or southern Quebec.

This one could be a real troublemaker. 

South Korean Wildfires Even Worst Than U.S. Blazes

Extreme wildfires in South Korea have killed 24 people
destroyed hundreds of homes and mowed down
historic sites. 

 I wrote about the swarm of United States wildfires we've seen recently, but things are as bad or worse in some other nations.   

Especially South Korea. 

Per the Associated Press: 

"Wind-driven wildfires that were among South Korea's worst ever have ravaged the country's southern regions, killing 24 people, destroying more than 200 structures and forcing 27,000 residents to evacuate, officials said Wednesday."

The fires started in earnest Friday and were still raging Wednesday. A little rain forecast Thursday might temporarily dampen the blazes, but it likely won't be enough to entirely stop the conflagration. 

The fires have gone so far as to destroy some of South Korea's history and heritage.

Large parts of an ancient Buddhist temple complex were swept by the wildfire, destroying 20 of 30 buildings and structures at the ancient Gousa temple. Two of the destroyed buildings that had been designated national treasures. 

The Gaunru, a pavilion-shaped structure built in 1668 overlooking a stream, and Yeonsujeon, built in 1904 to celebrate the longevity of a king, were demolished in the fires.  Monks and other Buddhist moved a stone Buddha statue reportedly build in the 8th century out of way of the flames, so that treasure was saved, the AP said.

Other sites important to South Koreas were also threatened. 

Says the Associated Press:

"Strong winds and smoke-filled skies forced authorities in the southeastern city of Andong to order evacuations in two villages, including Puncheon, home to the Hahoe folk village - a UNESCO World Heritage Site founded around the 14th-15th century. Hikers were advised to leave scenic Jiri Mountain, one of the country's largest national parks, as another fire spread closer."

Back in the United States, wildfires on Wednesday continued to burn in the southeastern part of the nation, especially in the western Carolinas.  

Additional evacuations were reported today as the fires continued to spread, many with zero or near zero containment. 

Residents of both North and South Carolina were under mandatory burn bans. Large areas from Georgia to Maryland were under red flag warnings this afternoon, which signify a very high fire danger.

Meteorologists have slightly increased rainfall projections for this coming Sunday and Monday in the western parts of the Carolinas, but it still might not be enough to squelch the fires in a meaningful way.

 

"Battleground Storm" To Give Vermont, Surrounding Areas An Ugly, Possibly Wintry Weather Weekend

Believe it or not, depending on how things set up.
icy scenes like this could be what the landscape looks
like in at least parts of Vermont this coming weekend. 

Whenever the weather gets "interesting" here in Vermont, that's seldom a good sign.  

Unfortunately, we are in for an interesting weekend, it appears. 

The exact nature of what will happen is still tricky. It really depends on where weather fronts set up and the interaction between very cold air to the north and quite balmy air to the south. 

Here in Vermont, the rest of northern New England, northern New York and southern Quebec. we could well be looking at an ugly mix of snow, rain and freezing rain. 

 A few areas could get a full-blown ice storm, but that's uncertain. And if that happens we don't know where yet. 

THE BIG PICTURE

A storm is plowing into the Pacific Northwest today.  Record high temperatures preceded it. Today, there's a very rare risk of severe thunderstorms, large hail and maybe even a tornado or two in western Oregon and western Washington, including the cities of Portland and Seattle. 

That's an incredibly weird place to have severe weather, especially this time of year. But there you go. 

The storminess will inevitably come out into the middle of the nation and ultimately create an outbreak of severe storms and possible tornadoes across parts of the Midwest, South and Southeast over Sunday and Monday.

That's not good of course, but not really our problem up here in northern New England. 

What is our problem is the classic battle between spring and winter. A Bermuda high out ahead of our storm system will pump warm and kind of humid air into most of the eastern Untied States.

By Saturday highs should be in the mid-70s as far north as New York City. 

Meanwhile a blob of really cold air will sink southward into Quebec.  While New York is in the 70s Saturday, Montreal, Quebec expects a high in the mid-20s  (about -4 Celsius).

That leaves us in Vermont in the middle, right in the middle of the battleground. Which means weather front will be mostly stuck, over or near us.   The Midwest storms will send along little storms - its children, really - riding roughly west to east  along the front through our regionFriday through at least Monday.

WHAT THIS MEANS

For now, all the forecasts for Saturday through Monday are pretty broad brush for us, mentioning snow, rain and freezing rain.

That's because it depends on where the front sets up and when. It also depends on how much cold air comes down from Quebec, and how much warm air comes up from the south.  Nobody wants to get into specifics of what will happen because of those questions, and I don't blame 'em.

Freezing rain could be a real problem with this. The cold air will probably try to bleed southward from Quebec in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, while the warm air streams high overhead.

This late in the season, that usually creates just a cold rain maybe mixed with a little sleet. But the Quebec cold air is so chilly that it could keep temperatures near the surface, especially in northern Vermont below freezing.  That could result in a lot of freezing rain. Maybe. We don't know for sure yet. 

This system does seem destined to bring quite a bit of precipitation to us, too.  It's possible we could see 1.5 to two inches of rain and melted ice and snow between Saturday and Tuesday.  Again, that's a preliminary guess. But it demonstrates that a lot of rain or schmutz would cause more problems than just a little.

FIRST GUESS

The following is BIG TIME subject to change but here's an early guesstimate of what we might see this weekend. 

For now, snow and a mix seem most likely late Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night, with a greater trend toward plain rain south and perhaps in the warmer valleys in central Vermont. 

Sunday's a wild card, with maybe a little snow, but also some fair amounts of cold plain rain or freezing rain. 

It looks like the trend might be toward plain rain on Monday. 

If this storm turns out to be mostly rain, then we could have some flooding issues to talk about. If there's snow and ice, of course road travel becomes a problem. And in the off chance a particular spot receives a LOT of ice, then there could be some power outages.

It's only Wednesday, so we still have to wait for more details on how this one plays out. Don't be surprised if you see huge changes in the forecast between what you just read and what we actually see on the weekend. 

I'm pretty sure, though, this won't be the weekend you'll want to start the spring cleaning in your outdoor gardens.  

Two Weird Tornados Hit The Same Spot In Mississippi Within 41 Minutes. One Of Many Odd Tornado Stories

Aerial photo and schematic from the Jackson, Mississippi
National Weather Service office showing how two
tornadoes crossed paths within 41 minutes of
each other earlier this month. 

When there's a large tornado outbreak in the United States, you're almost guaranteed to hear odd stories about the behavior of at least some of those twisters. 

So it was with the swarm of tornadoes that hit on March 14-15.  So far, there have been at least 114 confirmed tornadoes with this outbreak, easily the biggest so far this year. 

Of course, we have at least one weird story about this outbreak. As the Washington Post reports:

"In western Covington County, home too 18,059 people, a pair of tornadoes left a crosscrossing path of damage southwest of the town of Collins, the county seat, in an area just north of Spring Hill School Road.

"......the first one, a dying EF4 that had begun in northern Louisiana, hit the zone around 1:39 p.m. central time. By that point, it had covered more than 67 miles and been on the ground for 1 hour and 22 minutes. 

Then, at 2:30 p.m, and EF2 tornado hit the same spot."

That had to be a pretty terrifying afternoon in Covington County. 

 The explanation, according to WaPo:

"Sometimes the most favorable conditions for tornado formation and maintenance exist in a small zone. When the storms pass through that sweet spot, they can spawn significant long-track tornadoes in rapid succession."

It is weird for two tornadoes to go in two different directions within the same hour, but it can happen.

My guess - and it really is just a guess - is the first one, ahead of a cold front, was associated with a supercell, which typical run southwest to northeast ahead of such a weather system.

The second one hit when the cold front was closer, and the inflow from the front might have helped the second twister to move southeast to northwest, toward the front. 

Luckily, the two tornadoes intersected in a forested area. Though both caused damage, at least nobody's house got hit twice.

OTHER TORNADO ODDITIES 

There have been other examples of large tornadoes crossing paths on the same day, or coming close to it.  This is most common in very large or super outbreaks of tornadoes.

During the famous April 3, 1974 super outbreak of tornadoes, two intense tornadoes passed in close succession  southeast of Flintville, a town in southern Tennessee.

On April 12, 2020, a deadly EF-4 passed just south of Bassfield, Mississippi, followed by an EF-3 that afternoon just north of town. 

There are certain unlucky communities that have been repeated hit by horrible tornadoes. Tanner Crossroads, Alabama was hit by two EF-5 tornadoes on the same day  in that big 1974 tornado outbreak. 

Then in the next big tornado on April 27, 2011, another EF-5 tornado crashed through Tanner Crossroads. It's the only U.S. town known to have been hit by three EF-5 tornadoes. 

EF5's are the worst possible tornado, with winds of over 200 mph.  This type of tornado sweeps houses away completely and pulverizes them. Unless you are in a tornado shelter or a very protected basement, you would not survive such a twister. 

There's also the unlucky city of Moore, Oklahoma, which has been hit by more than 20 tornadoes since 1961. Two of them were EF-5s and two others were EF-4s, the second strongest category of twister.

We have plenty of other examples of supremely unlucky towns in Tornado Alley

UNLUCKY PEOPLE

In Paragould, Arkansas, two tornadoes within less than a year of each other had crisscrossing paths that wrecked the same small group of houses in the Club View Estates neighborhood. 

One of the homes, belonging to the Drope family, was damaged last May 26 in a tornado.  They weren't able to move back in until a few months later. Then, on March 15, yet another tornado struck the same house, pretty much destroying it. .

This was actually the third time this family endured a tornado. A decade ago, they lived about ten miles up the road from where the remains of their current house is now.  That former home when they lived there was also damaged by a tornado. 

Just this past weekend, Rolling Fork, Mississippi was hit by a tornado. This one could have been worse. It caused some damage, but didn't hit the middle of town, and its winds were "only" about 100 mph.  Bad, but not as bad as it could have been

But Rolling Fork residents are spooked by tornadoes, especially if they hit on March 23, like this one did. It was the second anniversary of and EF-4 that struck the town, killing 17 people and leveling most of the community. 

By the way, the 2023 tornado might have been an EF-5, the worst kind, depending on how you measured it. I had a post on March 24 explaining some quirks in measuring these monster twisters. 

Single tornadoes, or groups of tornadoes in one town can be particularly terrifying. In May, 2007, an EF-5 tornado destroyed Greensburg, Kansas. Then its path performed a loop, crossing its own path and repeating the damage just north of where it had just demolished Greensburg. 

UNLUCKY YEARS

Then there are unlucky years, in which strong tornadoes hit big population centers repeatedly instead of mostly staying in rural areas. The year 1953 comes to mind. It was the only year known to have seen five F5 tornadoes until 1974, when seven such tornadoes hit in just the one Super Outbreak.

Not the Midwest, but a Midwest-
style EF-4 tornado pictured here
struck Worcester, Massachusetts
of all places in 1953, killing 94
and injuring 1,300

The year 1953 featured massive tornadoes hitting larger cities. On May 11, 1953, a huge twister hit downtown Waco, Texas, killing 114 people and injuring 597.

Barely a month later, on June 8, 1953, a F5 tornado hit the Flint, Michigan and surrounding towns killing 116 people and injuring 897. 

The next day, the same weather system move into New England, spawning an F4 tornado in Worcester, Massachusetts and nearby towns, ending the lives of 94 people and injuring 1,300,

More recently, we had the year 2011, which brought the super outbreak of tornadoes on April 26-28 that spun off 360 tornadoes from Texas to New York. The outbreak focused the worst of its wrath on Mississippi and Alabama, which were raked by numerous intense tornadoes. This outbreak killed 321 people. 

Then, less than a month later, an EF-5 tornado struck Joplin, Missouri on May 22. That massive storm killed 161 and destroyed much of the city. 

In total, between those two tornado outbreaks and others, 553 people lost their lives in twister during 2011.     

LATEST ODDITY

Tomorrow, a severe storm outbreak with large hail and even potential tornadoes is forecast in (check notes) an area of the Pacific Northwest encompassing Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington, among other cities.

Such an outbreak of severe weather is extremely rare in the part of the nation, but there you go. 

The same storm system threatens to cause a new tornado outbreak in the Midwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast Sunday and Monday. 

The Year Of The Wildfires Continues: Carolinas Ablaze Again

Photo from the South Carolina Forestry Commission
shows a large fire burning on a mountain in western
South Carolina over the weekend. 

So far, this has been a year of awful wildfires. 

And we haven't even come close to peak season for this type of thing yet. 

Of course, we know about the horrible wildfires in California this past January that claimed at least 29 lives and caused billions of dollars in damage around Los Angeles.

Wildfires in Oklahoma and surrounding states claimed perhaps 400 homes during the middle of March

The Carolinas saw big wildfires earlier this month. Meanwhile, smaller but still dangerous brush fires have hit several Eastern states.

The latest problem is that the Carolinas are burning again. 

Western North Carolina is in the midsts of its peak wildfire season, which hits just before the hills and mountains turn green in the spring. 

This year is much worse than usual. 

There have been new evacuations because of these fires.  At least one home and two other structures have been destroyed in the fires, along with some cars and other property.  

The area most affected by the latest North Carolina wildfires are hitting an area devastated by Hurricane Helene last fall. Since that apocalyptic flood from Hurricane Helene last September, it really hasn't rained much in the Carolinas. 

Wreckage from that fire might be making the blazes worse and more challenging. Countless fallen trees and branches from that storm are drying out, adding potential fuel to those fires. 

That storm debris is also making things more dangerous for people needing to evacuate from the western North Carolina fires and the people fighting those blazes.  

Per CBS:

"It's to just the high winds, the low humidity, the steep terrain, but they're also dealing with storm debris that's blocking UTV trails, regular roads and them just getting in on foot because we have so many trees down,' Kellie Cannon, a spokesperson for Polk County told CBS affiliate WSPA."

Most of the western North Carolina fires were nowhere near containment as of Monday evening. 

Large fires were burning in western South Carolina, too, prompting evacuations. Another large fire in South Florida burned through 26,000 acres, and closed roads between southwest Florida and the Keys. 

Yet another large wildfire over the weekend in southern New Jersey briefly threatened homes. That part of New Jersey is now experiencing the most intense part of a drought that extends through much of the eastern U.S 

The Southeast, including the fire zones in the Carolinas, are expected to have dry, occasionally windy weather all week, which will keep the existing fires going and contribute to the fast spread of any new fires that could start. 

There is a little good news. But not much. Some rain is in the forecast for North and South Carolina toward Sunday and Monday, but it looks like the heaviest rain will pass to the west of the Appalachians in that region instead of thoroughly soaking the Carolina wildfire zone. 

Also, some rain is expected later this week in parts of western Texas and Oklahoma hit by the worst of the wildfires this month. But once again, the heaviest rain is expected to miss New Mexico, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles,  and western Kansas, which need it the most.  

The bigger wildfires will shift to the West this summer. Drought condition continue in the Southwest and sections of the Rockies, so we can probably expect more big blazes in the western U.S. this summer and autumn.

VERMONT EFFECTS

It's the spring fire season here in Vermont, too and that state of affairs will last probably through April on dry weather days.

We've already had two or three days with high fire danger. So far, though, through Monday, Vermont has only seen five brush fires which combine have only burned just under an acre of land. So far, no crisis here.  

Damp weather over the the next several days should mostly keep fire danger here in Vermont to a reasonable level. There's also the possibility of a soaking storm Sunday and Monday, which would be good. 

However, with the dead weeds and stuff still prominent from last year, it would only take a couple days of dry, sunny, windy weather to set off another period of higher fire risk. Thankfully, so far at least, it doesn't look like Vermont will have the kind of long dry spell which would create the conditions for larger fires like those in the Carolinas.  

Videos: 

A good NBC News overview of the fires. Click on this link to view, or if you see the video below, click on that. 

To give you an idea how dry it is in the Carolinas, here's a video of how a small spark led to a fire that instantaneously spread across a South Carolina lawn. Looks like the landscape crew was able to put it out before it spread to houses. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.