Vermont Experienced Coldest February, And Coldest Winter Overall, Since 2015

Henry the Weather Dog makes his way down  his St.
Albans, Vermont driveway, flanked by big snowbanks.
Snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, but 
consistent cold weather has kept snow on the ground
This February was coldest since 2015.

The data is in - at least some of it - and as I'm sure you noticed, Vermont experienced its coldest February in over a decade.  

For the record, the average February temperature in Burlington was 19.5 degrees, or 3.4 degrees colder than average. The last time we had a colder month than this was in January, 2022. The last time we had a colder February was in 2015, but that one was really cold. With an average temperature of 7.6 degrees, February, 2015 was the third coldest on record.

This February wasn't particularly cold by historical standards. By my reckoning, it was the 56th coldest out of the past 139 years in Burlington. 

It just seemed a lot colder because Februaries since 2016 ranged from kinda mild to incredibly warm for the season. Three of the top five warmest Februaries in Burlington came after 2015. 

In Burlington, it got to zero or below on eight occasions, again the most since 2015. That month had 17 such cold mornings. It appears the driving force behind February's chill was overnight lows. 

Burlington's average overnight low in February was 5.1 degrees below the "new normal," which is the mean of data from 1990 to 2020. Remember, those years had already been affected by climate change. Historically, Burlington was colder. 

February was the fourth consecutive cooler than the 1990-2020 average, as measured in2 Burlington. That's the first time since 2018-19 that has happened.  There were actually nine consecutive months that were at least nominally cooler than normal from October, 2018 through June, 2019. 

This was also the first year since 2019 that Lake Champlain had entirely frozen over. 

DATA ISSUES

A bit of a whine here: There is a LOT of missing data in the National Weather Service February climate summaries for various cities in Vermont.  I was able to piece together complete data for Burlington and St. Johnsbury using daily data in February I found from other areas of the NWS web site. 

But I was unable to find complete data for much of the rest of Vermont, making it almost impossible to detect trends in this February's weather across the state.   

I put in an inquiry today to the National Weather Service asking whether this data will be recovered and added to the incomplete monthly summaries now on the NWS website. 

I don't expect them to answer on a Sunday, so I'll keep you posted as to what's up with this. 

The missing data might be related to some problems with National Weather Service automated data transfers. One question I asked in my inquiry is whether this is all related to those awful DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service.  I honestly have no idea if the data issue is related to the cutbacks or not, so I'll reserve judgement. 

I noticed the same problem with data back in August.  I looked at the August data today, and it appears almost all the missing data from that month has been added back in. August data is definitely more complete now. 

I'm hoping the February data gets reviewed and the missing data is restored as it was in August. It is Sunday, so maybe they don't have the staff to deal with this issue until the work week.  

This isn't any kind of slap at the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do incredible work.  I just worry that they, and personnel at all the other meteorologists nationwide, no longer have all the resources they should have. 

MORE FEBRUARY INFO

Precipitation in Burlington amounted to an even inch, which is 0.77 inches below normal. I was able to look back 144 years and it turns out this February was the 30th driest on record. Other weather stations in Vermont appear to have been on the dry side as well. But again, the missing data makes it a little hard to truly assess that. 

Once again, Vermont tended to sit out dramatic weather events that were hitting other parts of the United States. In Burlington, February 20 was both the wettest and snowiest day of the month with 5.7 inches of snow which melted down to just a hair  under a half inch. As you can see, those figures don't exactly tell the tale of a big storm. It was just a routine snowfall. 

The lack of thaws this winter has allowed snow to accumulate pretty well, despite snowfall that has not been far from average, except in the mountains, which have had a good snow season.

Most towns in Vermont had at least a foot of snow on the ground on the last day of February. Several places had two feet or more. That kind of snow cover isn't anywhere close to record-breaking, but it's pretty good. Especially for places that need moisture because of the lingering effects of last year's drought. 

In Burlington, through yesterday, there has been snow on the ground for 83 days, the most days like that in at least 22 years. 

MARCH OUTLOOK

March is always a wildcard and this year is no exception. We're starting off bitterly cold, like mid-winter, but temperatures will go above normal later this week.  We don't yet know how far above normal readings will get or how long the warmish weather will last. 

March has the most variable weather of any month. Temperatures during March in Burlington have been as low as 24 below and as high as 84 above. More often than not, we get a March like 2017. The first day of that month was springlike, with a record high of 63 degrees. By the March 14, 2017, the "Pi Day Blizzard" hit. That one is still the second deepest snowstorm on record in Burlington, with 30.4 inches. 

So yeah, don't be surprised if the weather surprised you this month. 

The forecast from NOAA has Vermont leaning toward a warmer than average March, but it's not a slam dunk. NOAA thinks precipitation in the Green Mountain State during March will be near to perhaps edging a bit above normal. 

We will of course, see whether that forecast was accurate in about a month. If we can get the data.  

After One Day Of Vermont "False Spring," Winter Is Back, More False Springs To Follow?

The mild weather Saturday allowed me to start chopping
up the annoying thick layers of ice that have been on
my St. Albans, Vermont driveway for weeks.....

 We're getting a late start this Sunday morning, after dreamily recovering from yesterday's lovely hint of spring. 

The warm weather gloriously over-performed on Saturday. 

It had been forecast to start getting colder in the mid-afternoon north, but the mild temperatures lasted until a gorgeous sunset around 5:30 p.m. Yes, days are getting longer, too.

The high temperature in Burlington and Montpelier reached 48 degrees, the warmest it's been since December 19. It was a nice switch from a rather cold February. (Editor's note: We'll have the complete climate summary later today.) 

COLD RETURNS

Today, it's back to reality, as the frigid air flowed right back in overnight, as promised.  High temperatures for today already happened just after midnight, when the temperature was still close to 30. 

Early this morning, it was snowing lightly, but at the same time also kind of sunny here in St. Albans, go figure. 

The snow was part of a weak little disturbance in the atmosphere we've been talking about for days. We received a whopping 0.3 inches of new snow, so I think we'll survive. I bet most other places in Vermont also had less than an inch of fresh powder. 

....And I'm pleased to report I got rid of about 95 percent
of that driveway ice. Now, if only those 
snowbanks could disappear 

By mid-morning today, the skies were rapidly turning blue, and the rest of the day will feature sunshine and mid-winter chill with highs in the upper teens north to mid 20s southern valleys.  

We're still expected what might be the last spell of subzero cold this winter, at least in warmer areas like the Champlain Valley.

Most of us tonight will be in the single digits below zero, with a fair number of teens below zero scattered here and there. 

Monday is going to be cold, too, with highs in the teens to low 20s, much like today. Normal highs are right up there in the 30s. However, winds will be light tomorrow, and the March sun will partly compensate for the chill. 

WARMING UP, FINALLY, BUT......

After another frigid start to the day with temperatures near zero, we should make it into the mid-30s by afternoon under increasing clouds. We've been talking about a snowfall Tuesday night for a few days, and following a recent trend, the forecasts for this snow have been inconsistent.  

The latest models runs have most of the storm passing by to our south, leaving us with just one to three inches of wet snow.  Of course, there's a chance the forecast could flip-flop again and give us more snow than that, so we'll just have to wait and see. Whatever happens, it won't be a blockbuster storm. 

On paper, the weather looks mild heading toward the middle and end of the week. But a big, fat, Arctic high pressure system will lurk over northern Quebec.  When something like that sets up, low level cold air tends to bleed southward into our neck of the woods. 

That means two things: It' possible the lovely forecast for highs in the 40s under sunshine might not be quite as lovely. There's a chance some of us might end up cooler than that, depending on how far south that cold air can push in. 

Worse, the next storm coming along would be just rain, except for that stupid cold high pressure to our  north. We might be setting up for some freezing rain on Thursday. We'll keep an eye on that. 

But that mild spell would be our "false spring." Already, there's some mixed signals as to what happens after next weekend. Some long range forecasts mostly keep the mild air flowing, while others return us to relatively cold weather and potentially frequent bouts of snow or mixed precipitation after just a few thawing days that'll hit next weekend. 

It's only the first of March, so we know we will get slapped again with full on winter weather at some point before spring gets here.