If Skies Stay Clear, A REALLY Cool Lunar Eclipse Early Tomorrow Morning

Get up early tomorrow morning to view the total lunar
eclipse. The moon will look red like in this photo.
It'll also be near the western horizon as the sun is 
coming up during totality. 

A lunar eclipse is going to be visible across the United States early tomorrow morning, but the eastern United States, including here in Vermont are in for a special treat. 

The lunar eclipse will happen right around sunrise. As the sun is coming up in the east, the moon will be a deep red color because of the eclipse just before it sinks below the western horizon. 

To time it out here in Vermont, the total eclipse of the moon will start at 6:04 a.m and end at 7:02 a.m. But you won't see the end of it because the moon will be below the horizon by then. 

Here's the fun part: The maximum of the eclipse is at 6:25 a.m, when the moon will be at its reddest color. Meanwhile, the sun will rise at 6:26 a.m. Burlington time. And depending on where you are in Vermont, the moon will set in the west sometime between 6:18 and 6:28 a.m 

During totality, the moon will look red like it does in most total lunar eclipses. However, the moon will be near the horizon, so you'll have that perspective. I imagine views from the Champlain Valley toward the Adirondacks while this is going on will be awesome. This is cooler than the "typical" lunar eclipse. 

The moon obviously doesn't have its own light. We see the moon shining brightly because the sun's light is blasting it. During a lunar eclipse, the Earth gets between the sun and moon, casting its shadow on the moon. 

The moon looks red during a total eclipse because the Earth's atmosphere bends sunlight and indirectly lights up the moon's surface. 

A total lunar eclipse will happen at any given location on average once every 2.5 years. 

After tomorrow, the next total lunar eclipse that will be visible from Vermont will be on June 25, 2029.

Of course, you can't see a lunar eclipse if it's cloudy. Too bad the eclipse wasn't this morning since it was crystal clear. Of course, temperatures were below zero, so you would have frozen your butt off watching it. 

As it looks now, some high clouds will be coming into Vermont at the time of the eclipse. That might not be such a bad thing. During the much more rare total eclipse of the sun in April, 2024, there were some high clouds overhead but those clouds actually enhanced the event, making it all the more fantastic.   

The high clouds might make the eclipse even more interesting than it otherwise would be. High, thin clouds tend to glow red, orange and pink at sunrise.  This could get really interesting.

The bottom line is depending on where you are in Vermont at dawn tomorrow, the eclipse might look at little milky behind the high clouds, and in other areas the high clouds will be so unsubstantial it won't interfere with the viewing at all. 

It will be cold again, however. Temperatures at that hour should be in the single numbers to low teens. Pretty chilly, but not as bad as this morning  

How Henry The Weather Dog Endured His First Winter, Was Unimpressed By It, But Came Out Victorious

Henry the Weather Dog, with a "What am I doing here?"
look on his face in early December, the start of the first
Vermont winter. He gradually grew accustomed to it, sort of.

Time for a little fun. And a cute little video at the bottom of the post to illustrate everything. 

I'm sure people who have seen this blog thingy have seen images of my co-worker and close friend, Henry the Weather Dog.

He took on the weather watching job here in St. Albans last May, not long after Jackson the Weather Dog passed away after 14 years of exemplary service. 

Henry proved very much up to the task even though he, like Jackson, hated rain. I guess rain messed with both their hairdos. Or their aura. Or something. 

Henry is a South Texas dog, hailing from San Antonio He was used to hot weather and sunshine. 

He was in luck not long after he moved to Vermont. His favorite weather is warm sunshine. Actually hot sunshine.  He could spend hours basking in sun, As Henry soaked up the sun's heat, I told myself he was helping me study how the sun's intensity changed, how it affected our temperature, and humidity. And whether it would help produce thunderstorms, which are my favorite kind of weather. 

The thunderstorm never really came. During the summer and fall, a severe drought took hold. So did unusually high temperatures. Sometimes record highs. While his humans wilted in the heat, Henry thrived in it. He must have thought Vermont's climate was just like what he experience in the torrid San Antonio summers.  

Boy, was Henry in for a surprise! It abruptly turned colder toward Halloween. Henry had never seen snow before. How would he handle a Vermont winter?

The answer came in November and the answer was: Not great. It was bad enough when we had a dusting of snow on November 9. His reaction, like mine, frankly, was "What is this shit?" Except he'd never seen it before. If the snow as a movie, he'd give it a zero on Rotten Tomatoes. Given a chance, Henry would literally throw rotten tomatoes if it would make the snow go awy. 

Henry is a little guy, so a couple days after that his introduction to snow flurries, we got our first big snowstorm of the season. Nearly a foot of snow fell. Henry was not having it. 

Henry never came around to really love the snow in our long, cold winter. It seemed the snow would never melt. But ever the trooper, he found the bright side of it. 

He discovered critters hid under the snow. He could hunt! That was his favorite winter activity. Twice this winter he dug his snout into the snow and murdered two voles (I sanctioned the crimes, so all is good). I dug paths through the snow, so he can follow his nose and track where everything has gone. 

As the winter cold deepened, his visits outdoors shortened. He spend a few seconds to confirm it was below zero outside, and then he scooted right back inside to burrow into his cozy blankets. 

Even so, Henry has been productive. He ate ice off of the driveway, doing his part to make the pavement safer. He kept predators away. Deer and rabbits, desperate for food because of icy snow covering the ground for so long, decimated some of my hydrangeas. 

It was only 20 degrees or so today, but the March sun
is feeling warmer. So Henry the Weather Dog is 
lingering outside a little longer now that the
sun and the pavement feel warmer 

Henry is trying to save the hydrangeas by peeing around them to provide a deterring scent.

 On several occasions, most recently yesterday, he saw deer approaching the house and barked and snarled them back deeper into the woods. Don't worry, he was on a leash, he doesn't chase deer into exhaustion.

Both Henry and I have noticed the sun getting stronger as we head into March. 

It was only 20 degrees or so this afternoon, but the March sun actually felt kind of warm. Henry sat down, lingered on a dry spot in the driveway, sat down, closed his eyes....and basked. 

Spring is coming. Eventually.  

The deer will go away like they do every spring, to be replaced by hordes rabbits, which he will gleefully flush from the gardens. 

Henry has found his home. Despite its drawbacks, he tells me he's going to continue on as my weather dog for quite some time yet. He deserves a raise. 

Video: Henry's journey through his first Vermont winter. He wasn't always happy about it, but he persevered. Click on this link to see the video, or if you see the image below, click on that.

 

Another Below Zero Morning In Vermont. This Weeks Climb Toward Spring Features......Complications

The nice thing about March is the sun is stronger than it was
earlier in the winter so it makes a difference. The sun 
started melting a dusting of snow off my driveway
quickly yesterday, despite temperatures in the teens.
Today will be cold, too, but the sun will make it feel better

Vermont's journey this week out of midwinter bitter cold to what I would call "false spring" is going to be an uneven one. 

On that journey, expect some decidedly not-so-springlike weather including snow, freezing rain, and the possibility that the promised eventual warm air will be taken away from us. 

BELOW ZERO AGAIN

We start today bitter cold, as expected. It was below zero everywhere. It was generally a bit colder in northern New York State than in Vermont.

The center of the Arctic high pressure was a little to Vermont's west most of the night. The air remained calm longer closer to the high pressure's center in New York, so it was colder there.

I don't have the final word on low temperatures as of this writing, but perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York got down to 24 below. It was in the mid and upper teens below zero in the St. Lawrence Valley. 

 Light north winds lasted longer in Vermont, so temperatures didn't fall as fast earlier last night, but started to crash faster toward dawn as winds went calm here, too. 

So far, Lake Eden, Vermont is winning the cold sweepstakes, as they got to any least 18 below this morning. Morrisville wasn't far behind at 14 below.

Burlington was down to 2 below, This isn't record cold, of course. Burlington missed the record low (set in 1980) by a full 16 degrees. The coldest it's ever been in Vermont is 37 below, here in St. Albans on March 4, 1938.  Not happening this year, thank gawd!

This morning was the 16th time this winter it was at or below zero in Burlington. That's more than in many recent years, but it's not that out of whack, even compared to the past couple of climate-changed "warmer " winters.

Seven of the past 20 years have had as many or more days that were zero or colder. With any luck, this will be the last subzero morning in Burlington until next winter. 

So, moving on from the cold......

TODAY, TOMORROW

Expected accumulation of snow from a quick, small storm
later Tuesday and Tuesday night. It's a small one, with
only one to three inches south, less in the north. 

The good news is it's going to warm up a lot by this afternoon. The bad news is "a lot" is still pretty damn cold for this time of year. 

But highs within a few degrees either side of 20 degrees with light winds and a stronger March sun won't feel too bad.

The temperature will again begin to crash this evening, but high clouds, a bit of a southwesterly breeze and just the general air mass warming up will prevent many of us going below zero. 

It will warm up further tomorrow as temperatures rise into the 30s. But it will come at a cost. A small storm will spread another burst of snow across much of Vermont later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Luckily, it will be a light, wet snow that may not even arrive at all north of Route 2. 

In any event, southern Vermont should just receive one to three inches of snow, with anywhere between nothing and an inch north. 

SPRINGLIKE, THEN ICE?

At this point, Wednesday looks like the pick of the week. We should see a fair amount of sunshine with temperatures popping up to the low 40s for most of us. That'll at least melt the little bit of snow we would have gotten the night before. 

At first glance, it seems like the next mid-sized storm Thursday night into Friday would be rain. But there's a problem. Very strong, very cold high pressure will set up in northern Quebec. It will feed low level cold air down into northern New England, setting us up for freezing rain. 

It's too soon to say who will get the freezing rain, how much will accumulate and weather and snow or sleet will be involved as well. But beware, Thursday night and Friday might be problematic. Stay tuned on that. 

NEXT WEEKEND HINTS

It should finally warm up to springlike levels next weekend. It could even get into the 50s.  We'll have to start watching the rivers for ice breakups and ice jams. Luckily, it looks like any rain we might get will be light, so that won't add much to our worries. We'll have more details when we get closer to the event. 

March weather can be pretty psychotic. Things change at the drop of a hat. We'll witness some of that this week. 

Vermont Experienced Coldest February, And Coldest Winter Overall, Since 2015

Henry the Weather Dog makes his way down  his St.
Albans, Vermont driveway, flanked by big snowbanks.
Snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, but 
consistent cold weather has kept snow on the ground
This February was coldest since 2015.

The data is in - at least some of it - and as I'm sure you noticed, Vermont experienced its coldest February in over a decade.  

For the record, the average February temperature in Burlington was 19.5 degrees, or 3.4 degrees colder than average. The last time we had a colder month than this was in January, 2022. The last time we had a colder February was in 2015, but that one was really cold. With an average temperature of 7.6 degrees, February, 2015 was the third coldest on record.

This February wasn't particularly cold by historical standards. By my reckoning, it was the 56th coldest out of the past 139 years in Burlington. 

It just seemed a lot colder because Februaries since 2016 ranged from kinda mild to incredibly warm for the season. Three of the top five warmest Februaries in Burlington came after 2015. 

In Burlington, it got to zero or below on eight occasions, again the most since 2015. That month had 17 such cold mornings. It appears the driving force behind February's chill was overnight lows. 

Burlington's average overnight low in February was 5.1 degrees below the "new normal," which is the mean of data from 1990 to 2020. Remember, those years had already been affected by climate change. Historically, Burlington was colder. 

February was the fourth consecutive cooler than the 1990-2020 average, as measured in2 Burlington. That's the first time since 2018-19 that has happened.  There were actually nine consecutive months that were at least nominally cooler than normal from October, 2018 through June, 2019. 

This was also the first year since 2019 that Lake Champlain had entirely frozen over. 

DATA ISSUES

A bit of a whine here: There is a LOT of missing data in the National Weather Service February climate summaries for various cities in Vermont.  I was able to piece together complete data for Burlington and St. Johnsbury using daily data in February I found from other areas of the NWS web site. 

But I was unable to find complete data for much of the rest of Vermont, making it almost impossible to detect trends in this February's weather across the state.   

I put in an inquiry today to the National Weather Service asking whether this data will be recovered and added to the incomplete monthly summaries now on the NWS website. 

I don't expect them to answer on a Sunday, so I'll keep you posted as to what's up with this. 

The missing data might be related to some problems with National Weather Service automated data transfers. One question I asked in my inquiry is whether this is all related to those awful DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service.  I honestly have no idea if the data issue is related to the cutbacks or not, so I'll reserve judgement. 

I noticed the same problem with data back in August.  I looked at the August data today, and it appears almost all the missing data from that month has been added back in. August data is definitely more complete now. 

I'm hoping the February data gets reviewed and the missing data is restored as it was in August. It is Sunday, so maybe they don't have the staff to deal with this issue until the work week.  

This isn't any kind of slap at the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do incredible work.  I just worry that they, and personnel at all the other meteorologists nationwide, no longer have all the resources they should have. 

MORE FEBRUARY INFO

Precipitation in Burlington amounted to an even inch, which is 0.77 inches below normal. I was able to look back 144 years and it turns out this February was the 30th driest on record. Other weather stations in Vermont appear to have been on the dry side as well. But again, the missing data makes it a little hard to truly assess that. 

Once again, Vermont tended to sit out dramatic weather events that were hitting other parts of the United States. In Burlington, February 20 was both the wettest and snowiest day of the month with 5.7 inches of snow which melted down to just a hair  under a half inch. As you can see, those figures don't exactly tell the tale of a big storm. It was just a routine snowfall. 

The lack of thaws this winter has allowed snow to accumulate pretty well, despite snowfall that has not been far from average, except in the mountains, which have had a good snow season.

Most towns in Vermont had at least a foot of snow on the ground on the last day of February. Several places had two feet or more. That kind of snow cover isn't anywhere close to record-breaking, but it's pretty good. Especially for places that need moisture because of the lingering effects of last year's drought. 

In Burlington, through yesterday, there has been snow on the ground for 83 days, the most days like that in at least 22 years. 

MARCH OUTLOOK

March is always a wildcard and this year is no exception. We're starting off bitterly cold, like mid-winter, but temperatures will go above normal later this week.  We don't yet know how far above normal readings will get or how long the warmish weather will last. 

March has the most variable weather of any month. Temperatures during March in Burlington have been as low as 24 below and as high as 84 above. More often than not, we get a March like 2017. The first day of that month was springlike, with a record high of 63 degrees. By the March 14, 2017, the "Pi Day Blizzard" hit. That one is still the second deepest snowstorm on record in Burlington, with 30.4 inches. 

So yeah, don't be surprised if the weather surprised you this month. 

The forecast from NOAA has Vermont leaning toward a warmer than average March, but it's not a slam dunk. NOAA thinks precipitation in the Green Mountain State during March will be near to perhaps edging a bit above normal. 

We will of course, see whether that forecast was accurate in about a month. If we can get the data.  

After One Day Of Vermont "False Spring," Winter Is Back, More False Springs To Follow?

The mild weather Saturday allowed me to start chopping
up the annoying thick layers of ice that have been on
my St. Albans, Vermont driveway for weeks.....

 We're getting a late start this Sunday morning, after dreamily recovering from yesterday's lovely hint of spring. 

The warm weather gloriously over-performed on Saturday. 

It had been forecast to start getting colder in the mid-afternoon north, but the mild temperatures lasted until a gorgeous sunset around 5:30 p.m. Yes, days are getting longer, too.

The high temperature in Burlington and Montpelier reached 48 degrees, the warmest it's been since December 19. It was a nice switch from a rather cold February. (Editor's note: We'll have the complete climate summary later today.) 

COLD RETURNS

Today, it's back to reality, as the frigid air flowed right back in overnight, as promised.  High temperatures for today already happened just after midnight, when the temperature was still close to 30. 

Early this morning, it was snowing lightly, but at the same time also kind of sunny here in St. Albans, go figure. 

The snow was part of a weak little disturbance in the atmosphere we've been talking about for days. We received a whopping 0.3 inches of new snow, so I think we'll survive. I bet most other places in Vermont also had less than an inch of fresh powder. 

....And I'm pleased to report I got rid of about 95 percent
of that driveway ice. Now, if only those 
snowbanks could disappear 

By mid-morning today, the skies were rapidly turning blue, and the rest of the day will feature sunshine and mid-winter chill with highs in the upper teens north to mid 20s southern valleys.  

We're still expected what might be the last spell of subzero cold this winter, at least in warmer areas like the Champlain Valley.

Most of us tonight will be in the single digits below zero, with a fair number of teens below zero scattered here and there. 

Monday is going to be cold, too, with highs in the teens to low 20s, much like today. Normal highs are right up there in the 30s. However, winds will be light tomorrow, and the March sun will partly compensate for the chill. 

WARMING UP, FINALLY, BUT......

After another frigid start to the day with temperatures near zero, we should make it into the mid-30s by afternoon under increasing clouds. We've been talking about a snowfall Tuesday night for a few days, and following a recent trend, the forecasts for this snow have been inconsistent.  

The latest models runs have most of the storm passing by to our south, leaving us with just one to three inches of wet snow.  Of course, there's a chance the forecast could flip-flop again and give us more snow than that, so we'll just have to wait and see. Whatever happens, it won't be a blockbuster storm. 

On paper, the weather looks mild heading toward the middle and end of the week. But a big, fat, Arctic high pressure system will lurk over northern Quebec.  When something like that sets up, low level cold air tends to bleed southward into our neck of the woods. 

That means two things: It' possible the lovely forecast for highs in the 40s under sunshine might not be quite as lovely. There's a chance some of us might end up cooler than that, depending on how far south that cold air can push in. 

Worse, the next storm coming along would be just rain, except for that stupid cold high pressure to our  north. We might be setting up for some freezing rain on Thursday. We'll keep an eye on that. 

But that mild spell would be our "false spring." Already, there's some mixed signals as to what happens after next weekend. Some long range forecasts mostly keep the mild air flowing, while others return us to relatively cold weather and potentially frequent bouts of snow or mixed precipitation after just a few thawing days that'll hit next weekend. 

It's only the first of March, so we know we will get slapped again with full on winter weather at some point before spring gets here. 

 

If New England Isn't Snowy Enough For You, Try Buried Newfoundland

A ridiculous amount of snow on the ground
in St. John's Newfoundland after a 
month of record snowfalls. 

People in much of New England can be forgiven if they're not happy with the one, two or even three feet of snow on the ground at the cusp of March. 

If you want really big snow, head up to Newfoundland.

As the Toronto Star reports:

"Eastern Newfoundland has been pounded by series of storms that self so much snow, residents were posting on social media looking for help getting out of their homes and driveways. On Wednesday, some of the snow piles lining driveways in Paradise were as tall as houses."

THE STATS

As of yesterday, St. Johns, Newfoundland had received 178.2 centimeters, or 70.2 inches of snow in February. That's almost six feet of snow. 

This breaks the record for snowiest month on record, which had been 173  (68.1 inches) centimeter in December, 2000. The previous snowiest February, which was 170 centimeters or 66.9 inches back in February, 2006.  

February's snow in St. John's was relentless. The Weather Network reported on Friday: :

"St. John's Airport has recorded measurable snow on 22 out of 26 days so far this moth. Six of those days witnessed 10+ cm  (3.9 inches) of snowfall, with Feb. 2 notching 43.6 cm (17.2 inches of accumulation alone."

St. John's has had 385 centimeters  (151.6 inches) of snow so far this winter.  On average, they can expect another 98 centimeters (38.6 inches) of snow between and when summer finally arrives. 

If there is a bright side, St. John's is very unlikely to have a record snowy winter. That title belongs to 2000-01 with 648 centimeters (255.1 inches). 

Gander, Newfoundland has had 446 centimeters (175.6 inches) of snow so far this winter As of yesterday 109 centimeter (42.9 inches) of it was still on the ground.  

LIFE IN THE SNOW

St. John's has a population of about 110,000, with a total of 212,000 in the overall metro area up there. The city is used to snowy winters, but February, as noted above, has been insane.

Social media from St. John's was full of images of snow stacked against doors to the point people couldn't leave their homes; 

We saw how cities like Providence, Rhode Island and Fall River,Massachusetts had trouble finding places to put the three plus feet of snow they were clearing fron streets. It's exponentially worse in Newfoundland. 

St. Johns just recently got permission to dump snow in its harbor, which is usually big no-no due to environmental concerns. Normally, snow can be pushed off many streets onto lawns, where it will melt in the spring. 

But there's no more room to put snow aside like that. St. John's  has to do the tedious job of hauling it away to the harbor or snow dumps in and near the city. 

The work is expensive too.  St. John's has signed snow removal contracts to the tune of at least $3.5 million.

 Videos:

The snow in St. John's is insane, as you can see by this news clip. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Another news report from Newfoundland. I'm getting a backache just watching everybody shovel snow onto snowbanks nearly twice as tall as they are.  Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that. 

And let's take a drive though the town of Paradise, near St. John's after the storms. Also some drone shots to add perspective. As always click on this link or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Windy Warmth This Morning To Turn Into Frigid Sunday/Monday Chill Across Vermont

A mount of snow partly obscures the view out of my home
office window in St. Albans, Vermont. I hoping
some thawing later next week restores the full view

So far, the forecast is holding up for one more shot of Arctic air blasting into Vermont, but - at least in the warmer zones - this could be the last spell of below zero weather until next winter. 

I hope the above sentence doesn't jinx things.

As expected, it's mild and windy out there, especially in the Champlain Valley. There, temperatures and peak wind gusts give you roughly the same numbers. The temperatures are near 40, and so are the maximum gusts. 

Some towns in eastern Vermont were still in the teens to lower 20s as of 7 a.m., as those warm southerly winds hadn't been able to reach into those valleys yet. But don't worry,  those of you in the Connecticut River Valley will see some brief thawing today as temperatures rocket upward. Briefly. 

Temperatures should stay in that low 40s range until early afternoon north when that Arctic cold front comes through. Southern Vermont will wait a little longer for the front, so they might actually peak in the early to mid-afternoon as our Arctic front comes on through.

A few light raindrops or snowflakes might get squeezed out of this front, but there won't be much. I'm seeing a band of light rain in New York State this morning with this front, but the air in Vermont is pretty dry, so that'll evaporate a lot of that precipitation. 

LITTLE SNOW/LOTS OF COLD

We're still looking at a patch of light snow racing eastward across New England tomorrow morning. The forecast is still a little shaky with this, as different computer  models have slightly different ideas on how much much and where. We do know the snowfall will be light. 

As of this morning, forecasters are going for one to 2.5 inches in southern and central Vermont. That amount should also hit areas slammed by this week's blizzard in southern New England.  I'm sure residents there are thrilled. 

Northern Vermont should only expect an inch or less. I'll note this forecast might change a bit by later today.

We're much more confident that snow will clear out to reveal a frigid Sunday afternoon for this time of year with temperatures not climbing out of the teens in many areas. As winds die down in the evening, we're set up for perfect conditions for a frigid night. 

Light winds, clear skies and a snow cover, plus that Arctic air ensure all of us in Vermont should be below zero by dawn's early light Monday morning.  Some places will be in the teens below zero. Monday should be bright and cold with highs in the teens and low 20s. Frigid, yes, but the strong early March sun should make it feel a little better.

I guess we can say March is coming in like a lion this year. 

WARMUP

The weather pattern is definitely changing toward a warmer one after we get through our two-day Arctic blast.  That doesn't mean we get a reprieve from wintry weather, but at least we'll have some thawing temperatures thrown in at times, and the maple sugarers can start their season in earnest.

It looks like we'll get a little snow later Tuesday and Tuesday night, but it's too early to talk accumulation just yet. 

Another system looks like it might throw some mixed precipitation at us toward the end of the week. But that mix at this point looks like it might trend toward rain as temperatures hit the 40s. At least hopefully! 

March starts tomorrow, so now it will keep getting harder and harder for temperatures to stay below freezing. The weather over the next couple of days will be harsh, but the worst of winter is over. 

Yes, Big Blizzards Can Counterintuitively Be A Sign Of Climate Change

Satellite view of the immense nor'easter this week that
caused the record snows in New England

Climate change skeptics scoff, but sometimes, extreme winter weather is made worse because of a warming planet. 

That might well be the case with the big Blizzard of 2026.

Every big storm depends on a rich supply of ocean moisture to do its handiwork. In the northern hemisphere, that moisture usually comes from south of the actual storm.  

Our nor'easter pulled deep, warm tropical moisture off the Atlantic Ocean. That moisture smacked into relatively  cold air over the Northeast. The water in the air froze as countless snowflakes, which piled up to record levels in parts of New England. 

That this was a record snow event was telling.  A warmer world, a warmer ocean can pull more moisture into the atmosphere than our former cooler world would have been able to do.  This is a big reason why our storm this week over-performed. 

It wasn't a one-off either. 

While overall winter snowfall isn't really increasing in the Northeast, individual snowstorms are tending to get bigger..

Six of Boston's 10 biggest snowstorms have occurred since 2003. Seven of New York City's ten biggest snowstorms on record have also all occurred since 2003.

This isn't just a coastal thing. Inland, in Burlington Vermont, eleven of the top 20 biggest snowstorms have hit since 2001.

TEMPERATURE NUANCES

One other nuance helped turn the Blizzard of '26 into the monster it was.

Not all ocean water stays warm all the time in our hotter world. Regional weather patterns over a few weeks or even a whole season can make a big difference.

It's been cold in the Northeast this winter, as you might have noticed. That has made the ocean water right along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts chillier than usual. 

Storms like nor'easters prefer to form and more along a steep cold to warm ocean temperature gradient.  Essentially, storms want to "find" the warmer water.  This storm found climate changed hotter water a bit further offshore than it usually does, as the Washington Post reports.  

Many nor'easters like to find that temperature gradient near what is known as the "benchmark" which is 40 degrees latitude and 70 degrees longitude, which is off the southeast corner of New England

This time, that temperature gradient in the ocean water was a little more offshore than usual, this storm passed over about 68 degrees longitude or about 100 miles east of the benchmark. This slight eastward shift allowed the precipitation to stay all snow in Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. It also funneled the heaviest precipitation into that area. 

Had the storm gone right over the benchmark, Providence and southeast Massachusetts might have had a period of rain thrown into the storm. The heaviest snow would have fallen in somewhat less populated areas like central Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. 

 Of course, some nor'easters hug the coast or even go inland a bit, temperature gradients be damned. ,  In those cases, interior New England gets all the heavy snow. while areas closer to the coast mostly see heavy rain, high winds and storm surges.  

STRONGER STORMS

Studies are showing that not only are nor'easters getting wetter, they're getting stronger. 

Stronger storms tend to create heavier precipitation. The barometric pressure in thie center of this nor'easter was exceeding low. A deep storm like that creates big pressure differences over a short distance.  The pressure diffeences create strong winds which cause lift in the atmosphere. The vigorous lift  that turned the moisture the storm drew from the Atlantic Ocean into very heavy snow, as the Washington Post notes. 

That robust lift in the atmosphere also help create thunder snow in some areas hit hardest by the storm.

Record big snowstorms in the past like the Blizzard of '78, the hundred hour storm in February, 1969 and the Christmas Week storm in northwest New England in December, 1969 were so severe because the nor'easters involved slowed down dramatically or stalled, adding to the accumulation. 

Those stalling storms are rare, which is one reason why two to three foot deep New England blizzards were once so rare.

More recent record breakers, like this week's storm, moved forward at a decent pace with no stalls  They were able to dump enormous amounts of snow within 24 hours. 

Now, a brief visit by a nor'easter often does all the damage that was once only made possible by lingering storms. 

It makes me wonder if another Blizzard of '26 is not all that far off in our future.  

Despite Current Endless Winter in Vermont, Winters Are Getting Shorter Nationwide

A graphic from Climate Central shows how winters in
Burlington, Vermont have gotten shorter in recent
decades. This winter is an exception to the trend.

Here in Vermont, and the rest of New England, this winter has seemed endless. It feels like it's been going on forever, and it seems like we'll never be finished with it. 

But this long winter is an exception. Winters overall have been getting shorter, thanks to climate change. 

Climate Central waded through data from 245 American cities and found that in 195 of those cities, the coldest part of winter is on average nine days shorter than winters were between the years 1970 and 1997.

Here's how the study worked, according to Climate Central:

"This analysis defined winter as the coldest 90 consecutive days of the year during the past (1970-1997) and then compared the frequency of those winter-like temperatures during the most recent 28-year period (1998-2025)."

Juneau and Anchorage, Alaska have seen winters shrink the most, by 62 and 49 days respectively. That makes sense, since warming is much faster in northern latitudes and the Arctic. I would note that like here in Vermont, Juneau and Anchorage are bucking the trend this winter as it's been unusually cold and snowy this winter in Alaska. At least compared to recent winters. 

Climate Central's analysis included Burlington, Vermont, where winters are 17 days shorter than they once were.

In 1970-1997, the coldest 90 days pf winter on average started on December 9 and ended March 8.  Now, the period with those coldest temperatures only goes from December 20 to March 2. 

Not everyone is experiencing shorter winters. 

Reflecting the fact that in some cases, regular variability and other factors besides climate change can keep winters relatively long. A few cities in the Ohio Valley have winters as long now as the once were. So, too in parts of California, though the ocean's influence there limits large seasonal temperature swings.  

Even if you like these shorter winters, there are downsides to these milder seasons. 

As Climate Central notes, warmer, shorter winters can reduce mountain snowpacks, especially in the western U.S. That can lead to summer water shortages and an increased risk of wildfires. 

Sometimes, a lack of winter chill prevents fruit and nut trees and plants from getting enough of a cold cycle to adequately produce crops int the following growing season.  Warm winters can also prevent pests like ticks from dying off. A shorter winter could also mean the spring allergy season might last longer. 

Here in Vermont, as noted, we have had a long, cold winter, bucking the trend Climate Central has outlined. But the trend toward shorter, warmer winters will continue. A season like the winter of 2025-26 will keep getting increasingly rare.  

Another Week Of Vermont Winter, But Insistent Signs Of Spring?

We've got more cold weather here in Vermont coming
for the first couple days of March. But longer range forecast
call for warm temperatures nationwide, except Alaska.
Even in Vermont, I've seen optimistic forecasts
of genuine thaws starting around March 4 or 5.

It was winter cold again this morning, with temperatures in most of Vermont bottoming out at around 0. Morrisville got as cold as 8 below. The banana belt Champlain Valley ended in the single digits above zero. 

Winter will hang tough for several more days. Extended forecasts are getting more insistent that hints of spring are coming soon. I'm still a little skeptical. 

More on that in a minute but we've got the next few days to take care of first 

TODAY: 

It'll be rather cloudy in north, but we'll get glimpse of sun, too. Southern areas should be sunnier. Winds have turned to the south, so we'll get into the 30s most places today. You might see a few light snow showers in the north as a weak warm front passes by.  No biggie, with no accumulation to speak of.

TONIGHT 

A strong storm way up by James Bay, Canada and robust high pressure to the east will create a windy night for us, especially in the Champlain Valley. Gust could reach 40 mph in a few spots. The south winds will keep temperatures up overnight, especially west of the Green Mountains. 

By dawn, it'll be in the mid and upper 30s west amid those strong south winds west of the Green Mountains an 20s in the calmer air east of the mountains

SATURDAY

Remember those forecasts of a one-day hint of spring on Saturday?  It's looking a bit more like a half day north. The Champlain Valley will probably warm up to around 40 by noon or early afternoon before the cold front sweeps in to drop temperatures for the rest of the day. 

 It'll take longer for the front to reach southern Vermont, so those areas should a pleasant day in the 40s. It could even hit 50 in some valleys in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

The cold front will be starved for moisture, so expect just sprinkles ahead of it and flurries behind. 

The National Weather Service is offering a warning to anyone who wants to venture out into Lake Champlain over the next few days. Strong, shifting winds and Saturday's mini-thaw might break up ice on the broad lake, so you might want to stick to protected bays and such if you do go out on the ice this weekend. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Into the icebox we go.  We'll start Sunday in the teens with maybe a few single numbers north A weak disturbance looks like it wants to come through with a little snow during the first half of the day. 

Current forecasts call for less than an inch north and an inch or two south. Stay tuned, as if the path of this little disturbance changes, snowfall amounts could change. But this will by no stretch of the imagination be a blockbuster. 

Temperature should stay in the teens to around 20 for highs both Sunday and Monday, which is way, way below normal. Lows Monday morning should be in the minus 5 to minus 15 range for the most part. 

BEYOND MONDAY

We know that temperatures will become more seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday. We're watching a potential small storm that could deposit a few inches of snow or perhaps a mix, maybe,Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s later in the week. But cold high pressure will be lurking in Quebec, so it's possible those forecasts are too optimistic. 

Other long range forecasts keep insisting that after next Wednesday, it should be warmer than normal at least into mid-March.  Give our endless parade of cold snaps in recent months, I'm still in "I'll believe it when I see it mode."

Some Of The Best Videos To Come Out Of The Blizzard Of ' 26

Blizzard aftermath in Fall River, Massachusetts. This
city reported the most snow out of the storm - 41 inches. 

The Blizzard of '26 was certainly one of the most photogenic storms we've had. 

The blinding snow, the coastal flooding and the immense effort to clean it all up made for some good visuals.  

There is of course TONS of videos taken in the storm. I'm sure I missed some really good ones But I found some dramatic and cool videos too.

We have some of them here. 

Here's how New York City looked. I'll never understand why New Yorkers try to use umbrellas in blizzards. Anyway, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

As always, videographer John Petramala went out into the storm, hanging out amid the whiteouts, waves and storm tides of Scituate, Massachusetts. Toward the end of the video, I'm not sure what's up with the driver of the white car, but JEEZ! Again, click on this link to view or if you see it, click on the image below. 

One man's experience battling the blizzard from his home in Rhode Island. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.  

News report from Sandwich, Massachusetts on Cape Cod give you an idea of just how extreme the blizzard was.  Click on this link

We have more of the obligatory nor'easter ocean waves crashing onto Scituate, Massachusetts houses, and also the whiteout conditions on local highways, and stuck cars. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that.

Really cool mostly drone video by Aaron Rigby of people in Providence, Rhode Island neighborhoods trying to dig out from the city's biggest snowstorm on record, the day after the snow ended. You can see  some side streets hadn't been touched by city plows yet. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In Herbert Von King Park in Brooklyn, New York, area residents turned the open space into a snow sculpture park. It appears dozens of them are there. There's even an igloo where the television reporter conducted part of her interview. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Desperate Idea to Rein In Melting "Doomsday Glacier"

Map of Antarctica. The Thwaites glacier is seen 
to the left. If it melts global sea levels
could rise dramatically. 

Climate scientists for quite awhile now have been watching with dread something they've dubbed the "Doomsday Glacier."  

Before you get too panicked,  the glacier won't end the world.  But at some point, it might cause enormous trouble that would be felt around the globe.  

The official name of this thing is Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. It's about the size of Great Britain, and it is melting.

The "Doomsday" label is because the glacier is so huge and is melting so fast, that its effects are already being noticed. The thawing glacier already accounts for four percent of the world's annual sea level rise. 

Were the glacier to entirely collapse, it would raise global sea levels by about 65 centimeters or roughly two feet. Hence the "Doomsday" label as that much of a sea level rise would be truly catastrophic for coastal cities and communities worldwide.  

Each centimeter of sea level rise would expose an estimated six million people worldwide to coastal flooding, so imagine what 65 centimeters would do. 

Oh, and if the Thwaites Glacier collapses, it could destabilize the much bigger ice sheet behind it. If that big ice sheet goes, that could add another 10 to 15 feet of sea level rise. This wouldn't happen tomorrow, but it's a big enough threat to start thinking about, even if the catastrophe is decades or even a century into the future.

At this point, there's no way to stop Thwaites Glacier from continuing to melt. But maybe people can slow the melt down.  And maybe slowing the melt rate would buy time while us humans struggle to stop the flow of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere.  If fossil fuel emissions stop, so too, would climate, eventually at least.  

 ut we are nowhere near that moment yet.

One off the wall, expensive but still perhaps viable idea is to put a huge barrier around Thwaites glacier to stop warm water from getting at it. 

According to Interesting Engineering:

"The proposed structure would be just under 0.1 miles (152 meters) tall and stretch roughy 50 miles across key parts of the seabed in front of Thwaites Glacier. Anchored to the ocean floor, the curtain would act as a physical barrier, limiting the flow of warm seawater that melts the ice shelf from below,"

"The plan faces major technical challenges. The structure would need to survive extreme Antarctic conditions, deep water pressure, moving ice and long-term ocean exposure. Even supporters acknowledge it could take years before any full-scale deployment is possible."

It would also be incredibly expensive, to the tune of several billion dollars. It's unclear from where that money might come.  The logic behind spending that kind of money on a Thwaites Glacier barricade is that it would still be way less expensive than dealing with an eventual 10-foot sea level rise. 

At the very least, this whole thing is a potential research opportunity. 

Probably with this giant, expensive curtain in the back of their minds, scientists are drilling way down through the glacier and deploying instruments to see how warm water is interacting with the base of the glacier.

Data will be transmitted daily via satellite for at least a year. It'll be a way to figure out how deep ocean water in a warming climate affects glaciers it comes in contact with. 

"This is one of the most important and unstable glaciers on the planet and we are finally able to see what is happening where it matters most,'" said Pete Davis of the British Antarctic Survey. 

I have no idea whether this barricade will ever get built or whether the collapse of this "Doomsday Glacier is imminent. But it's just one trouble spot in a world of potential crisis points brought on by climate change.  

More Wintry Weather But Very Little New Snow Coming For Vermont

Henry The Weather Dog takes a quick measurement
of last night's very light snow in St Albans, Vermont
before rushing back into his warm house

 Yesterday's series of fronts left us with just the slightest amount of new snow. Which is fine, since I've really soured on the idea of shoveling heaps of it. 

Burlington has just 0.3 inches of snow. Here in St. Albans, it amounted to 0.8 inches, in other words just shy of an inch. 

I'm sure some of the ski resorts picked up one to three inches to freshen things up a bit  But we're not exactly going through a big cleanup like post-blizzard southern New England continues to deal with. 

Some of us might see a couple more snow showers this morning, but it any snowflakes appear in the sky, it won't amount to anything.

For some of of us, especially in the Champlain Valley the high temperature today hit just after midnight before cooler air began flowing in.  Temperatures today will stay just below freezing. An exception might be southern Vermont valleys, which could sneak up to 33 or 34 degrees.

We've got another cold one coming tonight, as that seems to be our style this winter. By dawn tomorrow, most of us will be in the single numbers above zero, but the cold spots will get below zero. Those readings will seem mild compared to what's coming by Monday. More on that in a bit.

On Friday, strong end of February sun will get us into the low and mid 30s, which is about normal for this time of year. 

ARCTIC COLD FRONT

It still appears we'll have an ever so brief, sort of hint of spring on Saturday, but it definitely won't be all chirping birds and blossoms.

As it warms up Saturday morning, a stiff south wind will kick up, especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds there will gust over 40 mph. Which means it won't exactly feel balmy out there. 

The cold front should arrive in the afternoon, so we might see temperatures already falling before sunset. 

We'll probably will see some snow showers, with maybe a little bit of rain Saturday before the cold front arrives. Again, anything that comes out of the sky Saturday won't amount to much. 

As the cold air blasts in Saturday night and Sunday, a disturbance scooting in from the west might drop a little snow on us. But those indecisive compute models disagree on whether that would happen and if it does, how much snow we'll get.

For now, anyway, it doesn't look like the snow will amount to much more than an inch, but we'll keep you posted. 

We're definitely sure we have a late season Arctic blast on our hands. It'll hit just as March arrives, so it won't have the intensity of cold snaps we saw in late January and early February. 

Still, it'll be a shiver me timbers couple of days. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday will be in the teens, which is a good 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows Monday morning will be well below zero. Early guesses are in the single numbers below zero in the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont hot spots, and the teens below elsewhere. 

Tuesday morning lows might be below zero too.

There's a fairly decent chance that in the warmer spots in Vermont, like around Burlington, the chill early next week might well be the last subzero temperatures until next winter.

Beyond early next week, the forecast gets hazy. It will warm up at least a little, There might be some sort of small storm next Wednesday, but that still has a lot of question marks attached to it.

 The computer models are still insisting on a true thaw beginning roughly a week from now. .That thaw would last several days if these models are correct. But, you've heard me say before I don't trust these long range forecasts, and nothing is changing my mind here.

I continue to hope for that thaw, but know that by the time we get to a week from now, that thaw might well vanish in favor of more winter weather. 

However, since we're getting into March, it's going to be harder and harder for temperatures to stay below freezing all day. 

Hurricane Melissa Now Tied For Strongest Atlantic Hurricane On Record

Satellite view of Hurricane Melissa just before it hit
Jamaica in October. A National Hurricane Center 
review, issued today, indicates Melissa tied for 
the strongest hurricane on record in
the Atlantic basin. 

When we were reporting on Hurricane Melissa trashing Jamaica  back in October, we described it as one of the strongest Atlantic Ocean hurricanes on record. 

Since then, the National Hurricane Center has taken a deep dive into the mechanics and existence of that powerful hurricane. On Thursday, they announced their analysis shows Hurricane Melissa is actually tied with a 1980 hurricane as the strongest on record for the Atlantic.

Hurricane Melissa killed 95 people, including 45 Jamaicans and 43 Haitians.  

When the hurricane was raging, its highest winds were estimated at 185 mph, putting it in the top six list of strongest Atlantic hurricanes.

But a National Hurricane Center post-storm analysis, released Thursday, shows the hurricane actually had top sustained winds of 190 mph not long before landfall. Winds did "diminish" to 185 mph when it came ashore in Jamaica, but I'm sure nobody there noticed the difference the the screaming roar of the beastly storm. 

The only hurricane known to be as strong as Melissa in the Atlantic was Hurricane Allen in 1980. That storm reached its top strength in the the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Allen caused 220 deaths in Haiti due mostly to flooding.  The hurricane weakened rapidly as it made landfall near Brownsville, Texas. 

As it hit the coastline of Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa's sustained winds of 185 put it in a three way tie for strongest winds in a hurricane at landfall. The others were Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2018 and a deadly hurricane in South Florida back in 1935.

Not surprisingly, the winds caused immense damage in the part of Jamaica hit by the strongest winds. According to the National Hurricane Center's report:

"Extreme winds destroyed virtually all wooden structures, stripped roofs from most building and even causes severe damage to concrete construction. Vegetation suffered extreme damage not only near the coast, but in mountainous areas across the entirety of western Jamaica as the eyewall passed over the island. Trees in that area were completely defoliated, and in several locations the force of the wind was sufficient to strip bark from trunks and scour paint from walls and buildings."

 Another measure of a hurricane's strength is how low the barometric pressure gets in the core of the storm. Melissa's air pressure in the eye got as low as 26.34 inches or 892 millibars. That ties with the 1935 hurricane as the lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane as it was making landfall. . 

The National Hurricane Center's final report also notes the incredible amount of lightning in Melissa's eyewall.  The eyes wall is the circle of intense winds and rain surrounding a hurricanes. The eye walls in most hurricanes usually have little or no lightning. Melissa had a ton of it, at one point showing 600 flashes per 30 minutes. 

Wind sensors in Jamaica were few and far between and most of those failed in Melissa's high winds. A school in Jamaica did record a gust to 131 mph. 

As is the case with most hurricanes, Melissa dumped incredible amounts of rain. Up to 35 inches fell in southern Haiti, 32 inches across the interior highlands of Jamaica and 27 inches in southwestern Dominican Republic. 

Melissa appears to be part of a disturbing trend in Atlanta Ocean hurricanes. The overall number of them doesn't seem to be increasing, but the number of Category 5 storms - the strongest of the bunch -seems to be increasing. 

In 2025, only five hurricanes formed in the Atlantic Ocean, but four of them were major, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Three of them were powerful Category 5 storms with sustained winds of at least 157 mph. 

Warm ocean water is jet fuel for hurricanes, and the water temperature where hurricanes usually develop has been getting hotter and hotter, thanks to climate change. If the conditions are right, these ultra-warm waters have an easier time developing extra strong hurricanes. 

One study found that climate change increased the strength of all 11 Atlantic hurricanes that formed in 2024.

It's really looking like a warming world will make hurricane season more terrifying that it has ever been before.  

Blizzard Update: More Snow, Power Outages Linger, Damage Assessments Begin

Satellite views of the Blizzard of '78 and the Blizzard of 
26 look eerily similar. The Blizzard of '78 was
more destructive because it brought storm surges
through four high tide cycles. This week's
blizzard caused coastal flooding through one
high tide. However, snowfall was greater this
time compared to 1978 

It was snowing again this morning in the areas hardest hit earlier this week in the Blizzard of 26. It's not much snow, but it's adding insult to injury as people continue to dig out. 

More than three feet of snow fell in some areas.

The death toll from the storm is still being assessed. Many winter storm deaths come in the days after the snow has stopped falling. 

That's when people have heart attacks shoveling snow, die from carbon monoxide as snow blocks vents and exhaust systems.  There's also car crashes on icy roads and accidents during storm clean ujp. 

So far, six deaths have been reported just on hard-hit Long Island, New York. Five people died on the island from heart attacks as they were shoving the deep snow

A sixth person was  found deceased beneath mounts of snow in Deer Park, Long Island. A worker hired to shovel snow at the complex for residents age 55 of over found the body. The cause of death has not been determined, but police said it's not suspicious. 

In Rhode Island,  a college student was found dead in a running car Monday evening. Snow blocked the tailpipe, which means carbon monoxide backed up into the car. Another person died when he was struck by a truck on the Mass Pike as he  were trying to remove snow from a vehicle.

AccuWeather is estimating $36 billion in damage and economic losses from the storm.That includes damage to homes and businesses, disruptions to commerce and supply chains, problems with shipping operations at majorhubs, financial losses from power outages, travel delays and damage to infrastructure. 

A neighborhood full of people try to dig their street
out of record deep snow in Providence, 
Rhode Island on Tuesday. 

AccuWeather did not tease out how much of the total was in damage and how much was economic losses due to power and transportation disruptions. 

As of noon today, more than 150,000 homes and businesses still had no power in Massachusetts, mostly on or near Cape Cod.  

Power was still out across most of Cape Cod on Tuesday. Six towns on the Cape had virtually no powFew gas stations were open, and those that did had long lines. Things had improved by this morning. Only Wellfleet was completely without power. Service was partly restored to the other towns. 

Utility officials said they hope to have electricity restored to almost everybody on Cape Cod by Friday night. 

Vermont  has sent help in the form of snow clearing equipment. Thirty-two VTrans employees left Vermont this morning to help clear snow in Massachusetts. Video showed a convoy of state dump trucks and bucket loaders an Interstate highway Tuesday morning bound for Massachusetts. 

 We can spare the equipment because only southern Vermont received snow from the blizzard and even that amounted to only a few inches. No large snowstorm are in the Vermont forecast. 

As the snow its cleared, damage to buildings is becoming apparent. 

A high school gym room in Kingston, Massachusetts collapsed under the weight of the snow.  A gas station canopy on Cape Cod was shredded by high winds and heavy snow.  Fallen trees are still blocking some roads in southeastern Massachusetts. 

In New Jersey, a church steeple was left leaning after the blizzard and will have to be torn down. 

Other cities are beginning to emerge as having set all time records for a single snowstorm. New Bedford, Massachusetts received 37 inches of snow, its biggest-ever snowstorm. We have a new front runner for city with the most snow. Fall River, Massachusetts reported a storm total of 41 inches. 

It's late in the winters, so you'd think a thaw would come along and just melt all this snow fairly quickly But nope! 

Temperatures in the blizzard zone will get above freezing this afternoon, tomorrow and Saturday, but not be overly wide margins. A late season Arctic blast will keep temperatures below freezing Sunday and early next week. 

Even worse, a little more snow is in the forecast. An inch or two of new snow fell from New York City to Cape Cod this morning. A little more snow might fall Thursday night and again Sunday. Luckily, these snowfall do not look very big. At least at this point. 

I'm sure a several million people that got hit by this blizzard are seriously pining for spring. 

Winter Just Doesn't Want To Quit In Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Our house in St. Albans, Vermont is awash in snow, and 
the gardens out front won't be blooming anytime 
soon judging from this scene taken this morning. 

Unlike many recent winters, it's the end of February and we do not yet have any real signs of spring here in Vermont or the rest of the Northeast. 

Even when an extended forecast offers a hint of warm weather a week or two out, that always seems to be snatched away at the last minute and it stays cold. 

Here in Vermont it snowed again this morning. Not much, just enough to be annoying. We has 0.4 inches here in St. Albans as of 8 a.m.  

Temperatures across Vermont were mostly in the teens as of 8 a.m. but the warm front causing this morning's snow should blow through, bringing many valleys to readings a little above freezing this afternoon. 

That "warmth" won't last long.

A cold front is coming toward us late this afternoon. If this were summer, I'd be yelling about the risk of severe thunderstorms. But it's winter, so the cold front will crank out a bunch of snow showers and a few snow squalls here and there. Those would be the winter substitute for strong thunderstorms.

We won't get much snow this evening, with  most of us getting another inch or less. But the rapidly changing weather and falling temperatures around those expected snow squalls mean you might see some unpleasant, icy surprises on the roads on the way home late this afternoon and evening. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

The cold front is a little stronger than we thought it would be (of course!) so they've subtracted a few degrees from previous forecasts. It'll only get into the 20s to around 30 tomorrow and it''ll be back down in the single numbers tomorrow night. 

After a chilly start, Friday will be nice enough in the afternoon with sunshine and temperatures in the 30s, with some upper 20s in high elevations and some corners of the Northeast Kingdom.

By the way, the blizzard zone near New York and far southern New England are getting an unwanted burst of a couple inches of snow this morning. They also might get nicked by a weak storm Thursday night, and possibly another few inches of snow next Monday.

I'll have an update on the areas hit by the blizzard in a post later today.

ARCTIC FRONT

It still looks like we have one warmish day, or maybe part of a warmish part of a day when we get to Saturday. By then, another cold front will be approaching us. Ahead of that front, we'll get a brief squirt of mild air that might get us into the 40s.

However, some of the models are speeding up an approaching Arctic cold front, so I wonder whether it will stay mild all day in the north. It's possible the mild air could get pushed out before the day is over on Saturday. We shall see!

What's definite, though, is behind this front is really cold air. March will start with frigid January weather. Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees below normal. Highs Sunday and Monday will only be in the teens, with maybe a couple low 20s south. Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday nights will get below zero again, like we haven't had enough of that already. 

It'll warm back up a little toward the middle of next week. Long range forecasts are suggesting a bonafide thaw once we get a week into March. I'm not trusting that forecast yet, since so many hints of warmth in extended forecasts disappeared as forecasts were updated.

Meanwhile, enjoyVermont's forever winter.  

Are Pennsylvania Ice Jams A Glimpse Of Vermont's Early Spring Future?

An ice jam in Swanton, Vermont after a rainy, warm
January thaw in 2018. This will be the first early
spring in a few years in which ice jams are
a real concern However, there's no
evidence that there's anything imminent. 

 Rain and a spring thaw in parts of Pennsylvania last week caused several potential dangerous ice jams.

Luckily, the Pennsylvania jams either broke up fast enough to prevent serious damage or hit in rural areas where there was little to damage. But those jams last week prompted some flash floods warnings and evacuations. 

It was a reminder, though, that a winter with lots of cold and snow can really create trouble when the spring thaw arrives in earnest. 

The same thing could happen here in Vermont later this spring. 

After a bitterly cold late January and early February. the weather abruptly turned in western Pennsylvania last Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms dumped bursts of heavy rain on that region last night. By noon Friday, Pittsburgh's temperature was up to 63 degrees. 

That kind of late winter weather is a recipe for ice jams. Thick ice on rivers broke up in that weather, and the chunks of ice got stuck on river beds, bridge abutments and other obstacles. 

 It has temporarily gotten colder in Pennsylvania, so the risk of ice jam floods has eased. But if there are still frozen waterways there or anywhere else, there's a risk of ice jam floods as we head toward spring.

"Anywhere else" includes here in Vermont.

Pennsylvania's experience makes me wonder what might happen in Vermont later this spring. Ice on the rivers is thicker than it's been in years. There's a fair amount of snow on the ground ready to melt.

No real thaws or heavy rain is in the forecast. But a little more snow is in the pipeline. Thankfully no big storms, though. The later we get into March without a thaw, the more likely the weather could change abruptly to something warm and rainy. Which would set us up for ice jams. 

As prepped as Vermont seems for ice jam floods, we have a more than decent chance of avoiding trouble. In Vermont's history, we've had winters that were much colder, much snowier and much icier than this one. After most of those winters, the spring melt was gradual enough to only give us the usual minor spring lowland flooding. 

I'm only bringing this up because this is the first winter we've had in awhile in which river ice has gotten thick enough to build strong ice jams if the weather is right for them. 

To avoid trouble, we'll want perfect sugaring weather. That means mild, thawing afternoon and chilly subfreezing nights with only light precipitation. Under those conditions, the snow and ice softens and  gradually melt. . 

If we have a sudden, rainy warmup later in March, and the ice jams do develop, we can still be just fine.

Much like in Pennsylvania, our ice chunks under this fast thaw scenario would get hung up on river bends and other obstacles. The ice jam would then create flooding just upstream fro where the stuck ice is.  

Where these ice jams set up would spell the difference between slight inconveniences and real trouble. The unlikely but worst case scenario would be an ice jam just downstream from Montpelier. That would back the water up into the downtown, like it did so devastatingly in 1992.

Since Montpelier is to some extent recovering from the even worse July, 2023 flood, we don't need that. 

Bottom line: Don't panic, since there's absolutely no reason to. Instead just be aware if we have a spell of warm, rainy weather coming up over the next month.