Big Snow Thump Hitting Vermont This Evening

At 4 p.m., Interstate 89 in Williston the pavement was dry
and it wasn't snowing yet, but..........

 As expected a burst of snow was moving into Vermont as I wrote this around 4:30 p.m. The roads should start getting snow covered and slick, if they aren't already.  

 If  you weren't home by 4 p.m. in western Vermont and if you're not home by 5 p.m. in the Connecticut Valley,  you'll deal with the snowy roads. 

The overall forecast hasn't changed much since the morning  Which means it will get worse as we head into the evening as the heaviest band of snow will come through west to east. During the peak of this, snow will come down at a rate of one to one and a half inches per hour. 

At that rate, the plows won't be great at keeping up with the snow, so it might not be worth it to wait the snow out before going home. Unless you want to wait until 9 or 10 or 11 tonight before driving home.  By then, it probably won't  be snowing as hard. 

Since this storm means road conditions will go from great to bad pretty quickly, I think some people might be caught off guard. Which is why for the next few hours, you might get stuck behind some slide offs and wrecks and fender benders and people whose vehicles have bald tires. 

Though this will storm will be poorly timed and fairly intense while people are driving home for the day, this is no blockbuster. 

By 5 p.m., that same stretch of Interstate was getting 
covered with snow and traffic was starting to back up

Considering this is a rather fluffy snow, and will only amount to 3 to 6 inches of new snow for most of us. The mountains might get a bit more. We're basically just getting our snow cover freshened up a bit. 

Our evening burst of snow in Vermont is being created in large part by a squirt of warm air that is approaching us, drawn northward by an Alberta clipper storm heading in from the west and northwest.

 It got up to near 40 degrees in Buffalo, New York today and 55 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania today. The abrupt shove of warm air is rising up and over a mass of chillier air. Moisture in the rising air condenses and falls out of the sky as snow

Hence the thump of snow we're getting. 

That warm air west of us will get cut off at the pass before it can ever make it to Vermont. 

 The storm that's helping cause this snow is still going to fade away over northern Vermont, or nearby overnight. A new storm will takes its place off the Maine coast. That'll ensure the winds shift to the north before the warm air can get here. It'll shunt that hint of spring to our south instead. 

During the period early tomorrow morning when the original storm is fading and the new one off the coast of Maine hasn't gotten its act together yet, we'll see a lull I'm the snowfall.  It might even stop for awhile in the morning. You might still want to get an early start tomorrow morning as roads could still be on the iffy side. 

The snow will probably blossom out again a little bit tomorrow afternoon and evening, mostly across northern Vermont. By then, the storm off the coast of Maine will have matured.  That storm will be strong enough to pull some moist air down from the North Atlantic Ocean via Quebec. You'll probably be driving around on some snow a slush in many areas tomorrow afternoon and evening, too.

By contrast, southeastern Vermont will probably be mostly done with this storm by tomorrow morning. 

We are also done with the subzero cold for at least a week, and probably longer than that. Above freezing temperatures might arrive as soon as this Sunday. I'll have more on that in  my morning report. 

Western Snow Drought. Florida Snowier than Utah. But Is Relief Finally Coming To Rockies?

Judging from the white residue on the rock in the top
photo, Lake Powell was already very low several months
ago. Bottom photo is a recent picture. A Year Without
a Winter is creating dangerous water shortages
in much of the West 

While the East is having the kind of bitter cold and winter storms not seen in years or even decades, the West is enduring the Year Without A Winter. 

And that's getting worrisome. 

 Most of the Rocky Mountains are already in drought. This winter out west has been anything but wintry. The region has experienced springlike temperatures all season and it has barely snowed. 

Unless it snows hard and soon, the ground will dry out quickly in the spring, setting the stage for a horrific fire season.  Reservoirs and other water sources could get critically low. 

Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Idaho and Colorado have all been running at least six degrees warmer than average this winter.  

Precipitation  is also running below normal this winter through most of the Rocky Mountain region. 

Much of what little has fallen came as rain, instead of the snow that normally falls. You need that deep mountain snow cover to feed reservoirs and to keep the forests fairly moist heading into wildfire season.  Thawing has been seen at elevations of 10,000 feet this winter, a time of year when snow should be continuously piling up on the mountaintops

Salt Lake City, Utah only had a trace of snow during January.  Marianna, Florida had 1.3 inches of snow in January. Snow flurries fell as far south as Sarasota, Florida.  

It didn't rain much in Utah either. Salt Lake City had 0.42 inches of precipitation in January, compared to a normal of 1.43 inches. On Sunday, SLC  tied their record high for the date at 64 degrees.

 As the  Washington Post tell us: 

Jon Meyer, the assistant state climatologist in Utah, said that Utah is 'officially in uncharted territory' in terms of the low snowpack,

It's even weirder than you'd think in Utah. Usually there's little evaporation during the winter in Utah as the landscape is normally mostly frozen or covered in snow. Oddly warm temperatures have left bare ground, and that is driving up evaporation rates, making drought worse. 

The snow pack in Washington State was just 26 percent of normal as January closed. The state was slammed by atmospheric rivers in December But those storms were so warm that rain fell almost all the way to the summits of the Cascades and volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest. 

In Colorado, snow cover as of February 1 was the lowest on record for the date, if  you measure through federal satellite data that began in 2001. Most snow monitoring stations in Colorado with records stretching back to the 1980s are at record or near record low levels, Colorado Public Radio reports. 

The lack of precipitation this winter in the headwaters of the Colorado River is the worst in the region. The Colorado River water ends up in Lake Powell, which stores \water for millions of people. Lake Powell water is also released to generate hydropower. The reservoir is the second largest in the United States.

So yes, Lake Powell is pretty damn important, and it turns into a crisis if it empties out too much. Which it is poised to do. 

Lake Powell is only about 25 percent full, and the water supply flowing into Lake Powell will be just 38 percent of normal through July, if current projections hold. 

In California, the winter got off to a pretty good start with some heavy storms depositing inches of rain and feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains. But that moisture supply shut off in January. Statewide, snow water equivalent was only about 59 percent of normal as of January 30. The Sierra snowpack supplies about 30 percent of California's water needs.

Luckily, reservoirs in California are still full because the previous three winters were on the wet side. California is not in drought, though abnormally dry conditions crept into the extreme northwest corner of the state recently. 

The ski industry has taken a hit out west, too.  Vail in Colorado, for instance, is enduring a 20 percent drop in skier visits this winter. 

It's usually the western ski areas that are buried deep in snow while the east struggles. Usually, it's the western resorts that enjoy a few hundred inches of snow per winter. Not this year.  Mount Baker which has a national record for most snow in one season, with 1,140 inches, in Oregon, had only 280 inches of snow through the final days of January.

For perhaps the first time in memory, it's an eastern ski area that was, at least at the end of January, leading the charge. By the time January closed out, Jay Peak in northern Vermont had already collected 300 inches o snow. 

 SOME RELIEF

The persistent high pressure over the western U.S. that blocked storms from affecting the western third of the United States is breaking down, and storms are finally starting to move in. Forecasts give almost everyone in the Rocky Mountains region some precipitation over the next week.

Some areas of the Rocky Mountains are in for more than a foot of snow. The Sierra Nevada in California might see a few feet of new snow in the coming 10 days or so.

Any rain or snow will be welcome, but it's unclear how much precipitation will drop and how long the stormier pattern might last.

Still, the West needs much above average precipitation before the winter and early spring rainy season peters out. So far, at least, none of the storms in the forecast look exceptionally large .

The West might be looking at a long, hot, dangerous summer. 

 

  

 

Decent Thump Of Snow In Vermont/New England Later Today. Evening Commute To Snarl

Latest National Weather snow prediction map, covering
this morning through Thursday morning. Most of us
are in for 3 to 6 inches of snow, maybe more in the
mountains, a little less extreme southeast. 

 Our little Alberta Clipper storm coming into Vermont today looks like it might over-perform.

The National Weather Service is calling for a general three to six inch snowfall across the Green Mountain State and surrounding areas. 

Winter weather advisories are up for all of Vermont except the western parts of Addison and Rutland counties, where they might be just under the amount of snow needed to trigger the advisory. 

A tiny section of the immediate lower Connecticut Valley south of Springfield is also exempt from the advisory. 

It doesn't really matter, as it's going to snow everywhere in Vermont. Most of the snow will come down in a big thump late this afternoon and evening. 

THE DETAILS:

We're starting the day off cold once again, but not nearly as bad as it was 24 hours earlier. The coldest I could find in Vermont Monday morning was 29 below at East Haven. St. Johnsbury takes the prize for most dramatic warmup. The temperature there went from 20 below to 24 above within about 10 hours. That's a rise of 44 degrees, which is really impressive. 

Temperatures this morning were mostly back down in the single numbers above zero at dawn. An exception is Plattsburgh, New York that got to at least 4 below. Burlington was right at 0,  which was a bit chillier than many places around the region. 

An interesting thing happens when Lake Champlain is frozen or mostly so. Places like Burlington and Plattsburgh, New York stop being the warm spots in the region because we've lost the influence of the relatively warm water. It's now sealed under ice. 

Until the ice melts, the only way the Champlain Valley would be warmer than elsewhere only if there's south winds. The south winds funnel easily northward between the Adirondacks and Greens, ,so balmier air brought by the south winds reaches the valley first. 

The lake isn't going to help. In fact, as we head into late winter and spring, wind coming off the frozen lake, or very winter-chilled lake water once the ice breaks up, will make places along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain often much chillier than places further away. 

Basically, Lake Champlain has turned into a gigantic beer cooler. 

Anyway, back to today. 

THE STORM 

It's going to warm up nicely - at least by our standards - everywhere this afternoon as the snow approaches. We should get well into the 20s.  Any sun you see this morning will quickly fade behind clouds as our Alberta Clipper rapidly approaches. 

The best guess is the snow coming in from the west will reach Champlain by roughly 3 or 4 p.m. today and quickly cross the rest of the state in the hour or two after that. 

Once it arrives, the snow will go from flurries to heavy snow very, very quickly. Most of the storm's snow will come in the initial three to four hours of this episode. This evening's dump will probably go at a rate of an inch per hour,  which is pretty fast. 

That means, unfortunately, on your drive home from work or school late this afternoon and this evening, you're going to run into rapidly deteriorating road conditions, bad visibility and the maximum amount of idiots surrounding you since the 4-7 p.m. time frame will be the busiest on the roads.

Unfortunately, I have an important appointment in Burlington today at 3 p.m., which means I'm going to spend my entire evening parked on a snarled Interstate 89.  I'll wave to you if you're one of the hundreds or more people stuck with me. 

The snow will tend to lighten up later tonight, leaving behind a general three to five inches of new snow. If it's still snowing at dawn, it'll barely be flurries in many areas. 

But for some of us, anyway, that won't be the end of it.  The Alberta Clipper will tend to fade out somewhere near or over northern Vermont late tonight, to be replaced by a new storm that will crank up east of Maine.

That offshore storm will strengthen, creating winds from the east that will blow into Quebec, then southward over Vermont. The moist air will wring out additional snow, especially over much of western Vermont and the Green Mountains. Those areas can expect another one, two, maybe even three inches of additional snow over those areas.

As mentioned, the total snowfall from today through Wednesday evening, as mentioned, looks like it'll amount to three to six inches for most of us. 

The western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains will do the best in this episode with several ski resorts likely seeing eight, nine or even ten inches of total accumulation. The western slopes of New York's Adirondacks and the White Mountains over in New Hampshire should be just as deep in the snow by later tomorrow. 

This has been the best winter for skiing and riding in Vermont I've seen in years. We've never gotten any extreme snowstorms, but the conditions have been great most of the time really since mid-November. 

This will be a pretty fluffy snow, so I'm not worried about the weight of snow on trees and power lines. And we won't be trying to clear wet cement from our driveways tomorrow. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Finally! I'll be quiet and warmer for a few days at least. By "warmer" I don't exactly mean beach weather. Wednesday through Saturday should bring highs mostly in the mid and upper 20s and lows in the single numbers to low teens.

We have a shot at going above freezing on Sunday. If that happens, it would be the first time since January 22 we've cracked 32 degrees.

There also might be some sort of coastal storm toward Sunday and Monday. The computer models are still all over the place with this thing. Given the limited and conflicting information we have now, that storm could bring us in Vermont a snowfall, an ugly mix or absolutely nothing at all. As always, stay tuned! 

Fascinating Huge Crack Opens In Lake Erie As Water Keeps Freezing

Satellite view of the large crack that developed Sunday
on the ice covering almost all of Lake Erie.

 Lake watchers got really fascinated with Lake Erie on Sunday. 

In just a matter of hours Sunday, a huge crack opened across the mostly frozen lake.

Satellite loops caught it. So did passengers on planes flying over Lake Erie. And people who live on bluffs in Cleveland looking out over the lake. 

The crack quickly widened on Sunday to about 80 miles long starting near Port Burwell in Canada to around Cleveland, Ohio. It's fascinating to watch the split appear on satellite loops.

Before this weekend, Lake Erie was about 95 percent frozen.  Strong northwest winds on Saturday   The northwest winds also piled up  chunks of Lake Erie ice up to 20 feet deep on its southeastern shore.  That movement probably weakened the ice in the middle of the lake.

Then on Sunday, light northeast winds helped  la"unzip" the crack southwestward across the lake.  The crack is another demonstration that a frozen lake isn't necessarily safe to walk or drive on. 

A person with the handle Rebsjoy on Threads
took this photo Sunday of the Lake Erie ice cracks 
while aboard a plane crossing over the lake

Lake Erie freezes more readily than the other Great Lakes because it's the shallowest of the five. Since it's shallow, you get less upwelling of slightly warmer water from the depths. 

Still, if Lake Erie freezes over entirely this week, it'll be only the fourth time since 1973 that has happened. 

Overall, the five Great Lakes were 53 percent frozen over as of yesterday. The least frozen of the lakes is Ontario. It was only 26 percent frozen. 

As weather patterns shift, there is other ice news to report. After quite a cold spell, record high temperatures were hitting central Nebraska today. Ice on the Platte River has broken up, leading to ice jams and flooding. 

As of this writing, around 2 p.m. today, I don't yet have word yet on whether Lake Champlain has entirely frozen over. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington will make the call. 

Even if it is frozen, Lake Champlain is not necessarily safe to walk on. 

Earlier this month, five skaters had to be rescued from the lake when the ice they were on broke off and started floating into a then-open section of the lake. 

We Just Had Vermont's Coldest Night Of The Winter. Uphill From Here? Snow Looms, Too

The "Haze Cam" looking toward Juniper Island in 
Lake Champlain, showed wall to wall ice cover 
this morning. I'm guessing the whole lake
is now frozen after this morning's subzero cold

Congratulations, Vermonters!

Most of us, anyway, just endured the coldest morning in the winter of 2025-26. Unlike other parts of eastern U.S. we didn't break any record lows. 

And, scattered across the state, there were a few exceptions to the "coldest morning" designation. But you get the picture. 

As expected, areas that were able to stay clear with light winds cooled off the most. Burlington got to at least 12 below, making this the coldest morning since February 5, 2023. The winter of '23 was actually exceptionally warm, except for two brutal days early in February that year.

Lake Champlain was this close to freezing over completely yesterday.  There were just a few holes in the ice left just offshore of Port Kent, New York,  I guessing the lake is entirely frozen today. It sure looked like it is from the Haze Cams at the University of Vermont that are pointed at the lake. If the lake is 100 percent frozen, it's  the first time since March, 2019 that's happened.

Most places across Vermont were in the teens below zero this morning. Newport was at 19 below. Morrisville and St. Johnsbury got to at least 18 below. I saw a reports of 16 below out of Bennington and Rutland.

Across the pond in New York, perennial ice box Saranac Lake was at 26 below. Watertown, New York was 27 below, which is positively balmy compared to the minus 35 they endured there Sunday morning. 

There were some weird exceptions to the cold. Montpelier had a breeze until 7 a.m. So far, their low is an unremarkable 5 below. 

Springfield, snug in the Connecticut River valley, is sometimes colder than many other places in Vermont. But they were at 2 above zero with a light north breeze at 6 a.m.. But things can change rapidly in frigid mornings like this. Springfield's winds went calm, and they had fallen 7 degrees to minus 5 by 7 a.m. 

The warmest place in Vermont was probably the summit of Mount Mansfield, They were at 0 degrees at 6 a.m. The second morning of a cold snap, when high pressure is centered nearby, often creates an inversion. We've got that going this morning. A layer a few thousand feet over our valleys is relatively warm compared to what we've been dealing with in the valleys. 

Except for those "warm" spots this morning, I think there's a decent chance that this morning will turn out to be Vermont's coldest until next winter. No promises, though. 

TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY

A new snowfall map with two to six inches of new snow
expected for most of us between Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. Heaviest snow Tuesday evening. 

That inversion will at least partly mix out today. With the sunshine, that'll allow us to get into the teens above zero. A 30 degree increase in temperature from dawn to mid-afternoon is pretty impressive, even if it won't exactly seem toasty warm once we get past noon.  

Tonight, temperatures should initially crash with clear skies and light winds. But changes are afoot. Overnight lows in the single digits to low teens below zero should hit by midnight, and then it will slowly start to get warmer. 

After that, we have some snow to talk about. We haven't had any absolutely tremendous historic winter storms this winter, at least not here in Vermont. (Other places certainly have).

But the timing of most of our mid-sized storms seems to be bad, and that looks like it might be the case on Tuesday. We've got an Alberta clipper coming at us from south-central Canada.

As it approaches, it will have a strong warm front attached to it. That warm front, which will never actually make it into or through Vermont, probably will still bring us a period of heavy snow just in time for Tuesday's evening commute. There's still time for the forecast to change a little, but that's the way it looks now.

The heavy snow will only last two or three hours in any given location, but for many of us, it will dump a quick two or three inches of snow in that timeframe. Slick roads and poor visibility could make the drive home on Tuesday unpleasant to say the least. 

After that initial big burst, some snow will linger overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.  Again, unless something changes, it looks like we can expect 2.5 to 5 inches of snow. Some places in the central and northern Green Mountains might end up with more than six inches. 

The second half of the week will settle into uneventful weather with average temperatures for this time of year. We're seeing signs temperatures could go a little above freezing over the weekend, more likely Sunday than Saturday. 

If it does get above freezing over the weekend, it will end the longest continuous streak of sub-32 degree air since the January 26 to February 21, 2015, when we had 27 consecutive subfreezing days.  Out of the last 141 years of record, subfreezing streaks lasting as long as the one we're in now have only happened 20 times, according to the National Weather Service.

So, yeah, this is an odd winter.

 

It's Not Just Minneapolis: Noem Continues To Botch Her FEMA/Disaster Role, Too

Ice storm damage in Oxford, Mississippi last month.
While understandable ire goes toward Kristi Noem
and her "creative" approach to immigration
enforcement, she's also getting terrible marks
dealing with natural disasters in the U.S;.

Everybody is hating on U.S. Homeland Security Secretary  Kristi "ICE Barbie" Noem. For good reason 

ICE Barbie's oversight of ICE and the U.S Border Patrol is obviously gaining the most headlines, due to what is basically the invasion of Minnesota and exceptionally cruel and unlawful ICE arrests across the U.S. 

The outrage reached a crescendo in late January with ICE Barbie's outrageous remarks ad reponse about two people in Minneapolis who were killed by federal immigration agents. 

Within hours of Alex Pretti's  death, both Noem and the equally odious White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller described him as a domestic terrorist who "wanted to do maximum damage and massacre law enforcement."

Never mind that we all saw the video taken by witnesses of Pretti's murder with our own eyes. 

 "Imagine how they lie when there's no evidence to contradict them," Jon Stewart recently said, "And maybe that, more than anything, explains why Alex Pretti really was a threat. Because he was brandishing a weapon: A handheld, aluminum 1080p, 60fps weapon of mass illumination, " referring to Pretti's camera phone. 

I really do think this administration's greatest fear is camera phones. Hard to spin bull all over the place when there's plenty of footage to debunk their lies.

It's pretty clear Noem should not be the U.S. Homeland Security Secretary. But MAGA loves cruelty, incompetence and grift, so here we are.  Noem's incompetence extends to where the cameras aren't: In her offices, dealing -  or in her case not dealing - with disaster assistance. 

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-NC recently had the following to say about Noem's work on disaster relief:

"Another part of the Secretary of Homeland Security job is disaster response and I cannot tell you enough how incompetent she is on that score as well. The data clearly shows that something is seriously wrong here. 

Under Secretary Noem's lack of leadership, FEMA has invented an entirely new set of bureaucracies, the likes of which I've never seen. And I'm in a state that deals with a disaster almost every season. 

Under Noem's leadership, which is supposed to be more efficient, more effective and more responsive to the disaster in western North Carolina and the other states that were affected look like the EKG of someone who's having a heart attack. She needs to get out of the C-suite."

Meanwhile, as Inside Climate News reports, disaster victims from across the United States are pleading with Congress to restore FEMA as an independent agency, one that would be no longer under the politicized leacdership of ICE Barbie.

The disaster victims and advocates say ever since FEMA fell under the umbrella of the Department of Homeland Security, it has become more slower, more restrictive e and less accountable. 

FEMA was formed in 1979 and until 2003 reported directly to the President and Congress, But FEMA wss consolidated under the Department of Homeland Security after the 9/11 terror attack.

The disaster survivor group says FEMA is held hostage inside an agency that's focused on violent immigration enforcement. Disaster relief has at best become an afterthought. 

LATEST DISASTER

ICE Barbie did appear to want to at least pretend she was gearing up for the immense winter storm that hit the U.S. on the weekend of January 24-25. 

She waltzed into the FEMA headquarters just before the storm to give a rah-rah little pep talk. 

"I was shocked she showed up after all the shit we've been put through and what she's said," one FEMA official told CNN, adding that you could hear a pin drop in the center that day."

CNN continues:

"In the case many FEMA insiders were heartened by Noem and her team's sudden show of support, but aren't convinced the heavy-handed overhaul and downsizing are over. 'I doubt that this is permanent. I hope it is, but I doubt it,' one high-ranking official said."

More likely than not, ICE Barbie's appearance at the FEMA headquarters was just window dressing. In all the news stories about the immense ice and snow storm that caused so damage and misery on January 23-26, I hear very little about FEMA involvement in what was truly a huge disaster. 

A FEMA help page did appear last week, and Donald Trump has declared federal disaster areas in Mississippi and Tennessee. And some federal help arrived in some of the hardest hit states

But I didn't really see boots on the ground FEMA help like we saw in other disasters during the Biden administration. Vermont was crawling with FEMA personnel during and after the big summer floods of 2023 and 2024, for instance . 

FEMA in January had been poised to terminate waves of disaster-specific workers in waves, according to the Washington Post. 

However, just before the big winter storm in late January, DHS paused the FEMA firings. Bad PR to get rid of the help when it's really needed, I guess.  

I'm not optimistic about victims of last month's winter storm given the handling of other disasters over the past year. 

FEMA under Ice Barbie have faltered with big disasters like the aftermath of Helene. That storm hit in 2024 and North Carolina has only gotten a fraction of the requested federal aid.ON

Only about one fifth of applicants in Kerr County, Texas,  hardest hit by last July's extreme flooding, have been deemed eligible for financial help so far.

Additional big calamities are almost certainly in the pipeline. Tornado season will ramp up in a month or two. The western U.S is deep in drought, which makes me and a lot of other people worried about the summer fire season. 

Last year, the U.S. got lucky with no hurricane landfalls. Can we do two in a row? Fingers crossed, but it's a long shot. 

Unfortunately, I've said this before and I'll say it again. Anyone who gets nailed by a natural or climate disaster under this administration is on their own. 

 

Like Snow? Head To Northern Japan. They're Absolutely Buried

A recent street view of Aomori, Japan which
has been buried beneath a series of 
snowstorms coming off the Sea of Japan,
Photo by Larry Lane via Facebook

If you think you've gotten too much snow this winter, be glad you're not in northern Japan.  

Snow depth reached more than nine feet in some areas on Japan's northernmost island, leading to crushed buildings, impossible travel and the risk of avalanches and deaths from being buried by snow sliding off roofs. 

At least 35 people have died and nearly 400 are injured by recent extreme snows. Japanese emergency agencies have not said how the deaths and injuries occurred, but local media said that at least some of the deaths and injuries have involved falls from roofs as people try to remove snow from overburdened homes and businesses. 

Per AccuWeather:

"The deepest snow has been concentrated in northeastern Japan, home to more than 1 million people. In the city of Aomori, snow was piled near seven feet high, disrupting travel and for ing some rescue teams to enter homes through second-story windows. The snow depth was the most in 40 years, according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency."

The Guardian reports that the winter weather has brought chaos to 15 of the country's 47 prefectures.  In some areas, the last time snow as this deep was not 40 years ago, but 1945. So it's been awhile since Japan has seen anything like this. 

Areas of northern Japan often get feet upon feet of snow in the winter. Cold winds coming from Russia and China pick up moisture as they cross the Sea of Japan and dump it as snow when it hits northern Japan. It's like the lake effect snow you see in western New York, but the Japan snows tend to be much deeper.

Aomori is sometimes described as the world's snowiest city. But this year is ridiculous. 

Frequent Arctic air outbreaks have caused numerous huge dumps of snow on Hokkaido, Japan's northernmost island. The storms have been bigger and more frequent than usual, with few if any thaws in between. 

The snow has been relentless for weeks, and people are constantly trying to clear the snow. "I'm at my physical limit," one resident of Aomori said, probably speaking for everyone in town. 

 There was a few days of thawing in the past week, but that has temporarily ended. The above freezing temperatures created a risk of avalanches and flooding in areas where water can't drain because snow is blocking ditches and storm drains. There's even been some rain. 

The thaw also also allowed feet-thick chunks of snow to  slide off roofs, and that has been causing damage to some buildings. At least 40 structure in Aomori suffered at least some damage in just one day. The snow sliding off roofs has also collapsed power lines in some parts of the region. 

The snow reasserted itself and spread into many of the huge cities of Japan on Sunday. 

Some areas of western Japan not far from Kyoto reported up to 14 inches of snow within six hours.  In Hokuriku, a couple feet of snow fell within a 24 hours. The snow spread into Tokyo, where a couple inches fell.  Tokyo on average usually gets a snowfall that size only once, maybe twice per winter. 

Bullet trains in Japan were operating at reduced speeds due to the widespread snow and about 50,000 people were affected by train delays and cancelations around Tokyo.

The new round of snow was poorly timed because it came while national elections are being held and universities are doing entrance exams. Some of the universities have delayed those exams. 

A break in the weather, with a little more thawing even in hard-hit Hokkaido is expected later this week.

 Videos:

 Incredibly snowy scenes from Aomori, Japan. In recent weeks, up to 15 feet of snow has fallen in the areas Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Another very snowy news clip. Once again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that

 

No Outdoor Brunches In Vermont Today: Wicked Cold As Expected

Had to re-up the cold air hurts my face
to illustrate the Arctic blast we're in the
midst of experiencing. 

 Sure enough, it was solidly below zero everywhere in Vermont this morning  as we "enjoy" our blast of Arctic air courtesy of the lovely folks over in Siberia. 

I guess we can rejoice in the fact that this isn't record cold. Just unpleasantly nippy. 

As is usually the case in the first full morning of a cold wave like this, temperatures across Vermont were pretty uniform as the day started. 

Almost everyone in Vermont had temperatures in the single numbers below zero as of 8 a.m. today.  

A north wind is keeping the atmosphere mixed so everybody gets to enjoy roughly the same level of cold. 

Had it been clear with calm winds, temperatures would be all over the place this morning, with  relative warm and cold pockets. That's what we have coming tomorrow. More on that in a bit.

Winds were a little lighter in northern New York, and temperatures were in the teens below most places there. 

Watertown, New York went to calm winds overnight and, incredibly, they got down 35 below. Actual temperature, not the wind chill.

Speaking of wind chill, it felt like it was in the 20s below across most of Vermont this morning with north winds blowing at around 10 mph, give or take. As my headline suggests, take your brunch inside a cozy restaurant, maybe near the fireplace. 

The wind will keep us feeling frigid all day today. But, the core of the very coldest air is moving out, and the sun will also more or less shine most of the day. That means we should get above zero for actual temperatures this afternoon. Those north winds will keep blowing, so we can expect wind chills in the teens below through the day.  

Watch out if you're crazy enough to go skiing or something 52 blike that today. The wind chills on those exposed slopes could be ridiculous. The wind chill on Mount Marcy, New York last evening was 63 below. On Mount Mansfield, it was 52 below.

It'll be a little better up there today, but not by much. 

TONIGHT AND BEYOND

About as wintry a satellite view as you can get. This
one, taken Sunday morning, shows solid snow cover
remaining all the way down to Virginia. Those clouds
you see off the entire East Coast are caused by
frigid air flowing over warmer Atlantic water. 

The second night of a Vermont cold spell like this gets hard to predict. Some places will still have breezes that will prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out. Some sheltered valleys could end up with calm winds and readings well into the 20s below by dawn tomorrow. 

Also, there might be some areas of cloudy skies around for awhile tonight. If they clear out fast, it'll turn colder. If the clouds hang on, it won't be quite as bad.  So, please forgive your local Vermont meteorologist if they tell you tonight's lows across the state will range from minus 5 to near 25 below. 

Monday still looks like it will be another cold day as the frigid Arctic high pressure only begrudgingly. That high will probably be right on top of us during the day, so expect sunny skies, light winds and highs in the low to mid teens. Not that bad, honestly. 

After another subzero start to the day Tuesday, clouds will fill in ahead of the next little Alberta Clipper storm from Canada. That'll probably deposit another one to three inches of snow on the Green Mountain State Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Unlike several other Alberta Clippers in recent weeks, this one won't have particularly frigid air behind it. It looks like we'll have a few days of average, quiet weather late in the week. Average this time of year means highs in the 25 to 32 degree range with lows between 5 and 15 degrees.  

Maybe we're turning a corner. There's actually a chance this weekend might be the coldest weather we'll see until next winter. Of course, I might have just  jinxed us into being in the 20s below until April. Let's hope not! 

New York City Rediscovers Winter,And Not Everybody Is Happy About It

This screen grab of a New York City webcam on Friday 
looked peaceful enough, but some New Yorkers are 
not handling the toughest winter in recent memory
very well. It gets very cold again this weekend. 

Snow and winter cold that just won't go away is driving some New Yorkers batty. 

As many of us know, almost a foot snow and sleet fell on New York City back on January 25 and it has just sat there. Stubbornly. Daring for people to say mean things about it as it turns gray, yellow, slushy and gross. 

Mean things are also being said about the air temperatures, which has been consistently colder than it's been in yeats. 

And those mean things are being said. 

Egged on by the New York Post, a right wing, Murdoch owned publication, New Yorkers, mostly of MAGA ilk are enraged that snow is still narrowing sidewalks, making parking difficult and is just plain nasty to look at, now that it's been sitting around getting dirty for more than a week.

Trash bags are still out there too, as the sanitation department focused on clearing snow, so some trash pickups were delayed.

All that snow I'm sure is frustrating to New Yorkers. But it's mostly really about the Post and MAGA trying to do anything to take leftie Mayor Zohran Mamdani down a peg. Because he's - gasp! a democratic socialist. 

Hizzoner probably hasn't done a perfect job with this winter storm. No mayor would. But from my vantage point, he's done pretty well from what I can see. But what do I know? I'm just a hick from Vermont who has plenty of room to throw snow out of the way if I need to. 

The complaints seem to center on the fact that in past big storms the snow disappeared from the streets pretty quickly after big storms. 

Which is true. 

But the whiners don't seem to understand the concept of thawing. 

The temperature in New York has remained near or below freezing since the storm hit on January 25 and 26. Most past storms featured warmer, thawing weather right after the storm.

The complainers point to a 27 inch blizzard on January 23, 2016. That one was more than twice as deep as this year's snowfall, but it disappeared fairly quickly. It was above freezing in New York every day after that snowstorm. It was 47 degrees on January 27, 56 degrees on January 31 and a toasty 60 on February 1

Snow depth fell to just six inches within a week after the storm. By February 2, only a trace remained. 

It's not like everybody is complaining. A lot of New Yorkers just say fughetaboutit

On Threads, a New Yorker very reasonably wrote: "All these people talking about yellow snow and dirty snow. Garbage piled up. This is how it has always been after a snowstorm. For decades. It doesn't make it right. It just makes it true. Don't blame Mamdani. Don't blame the MTA. Understand that it takes time to remove snow in a city this size."

Other people got deliciously sarcastic on line:

"After TWO WEEKS there's STILL snow in Central Park, New York City! When will Mamdani get rid of it! Another epic fail!" 

The writer made clear this was indeed sarcasm, so other people mockingly piled on poor Mayor Mamdani. 

"Why hasn't Mamdani made the temperature go above 40 degrees yet?"

"And when will that monster finally put the leaves back on the trees?"

"Socialism brings snow. Why do you think Russia has so much snow?"

"Snow never existed before he was mayor. He cast a spell to create this thing called snow."

"Wasn't he to blame for the blizzard of '96?"

Mamdani was four years old when the blizzard of 1996, so it of course makes perfect sense that this notorious storm was his fault. 

CLEANUP CONTINUES

 New York has alternate side parking rules in which people need to park on one side of the street some days, and other side on different days. This allows for street cleaning.

The city suspended the rules after the big snowstorm on January 25-26. But the suspension ends on Super Bowl Sunday - this weekend -  and quite a few cars are buried under snow and ice. Those buried cars will need to be moved by then, or there will be towing and serious expenses for those car owners. 

It was fairly mild by this winters standards in New York Thursday and Friday which softened the ice encasing the cars a little. That was everybody's last chance to dig out their vehicles. With another intense blast of Arctic cold surging into New York, the ice around those cars is no doubt hard as concrete again. Good luck getting rid of that.   

I'm sure there will be plenty more whining when the expensive parking tickets and towing hit on Monday. 

NO FERRIES

Ferry service on the Hudson and East Rivers have been suspended for a week and that's not going to change anytime soon.  So much ice has built up around Manhattan island that it's too unsafe for ferries to operate.

The ice diminished around Manhattan this week, but it's still there. And those frigid conditions forecast for the weekend mean that you're not going to take the famous Staten Island Ferry or any other ferries for awhile yet if you're around New York. 

At least New York is in for a minor break, anyway. After this cold snap clears out, daytime temperatures most of this week will be in the 30s. 

Florida Freezes To Mess Up Your Grocery Bill

Farmers at Southern Hill Farm in Clermont,
Florida tried encasing crops in ice which
counterintuitively protects crops from harsh
freezes. Many farmers do this. But the 
cold was so intense in Florida the icing
did not work in many cases. Photo
from Southern Hill Farm via Facebook

This winter's cold is turning out to be expensive. And I'm not just talking about your heating bill. 

If you like fruits and vegetables, the price is probably going to spike soon, if it hasn't started to do so already thanks to those big Florida freezes. If you're tired of rising grocery prices, this isn't the news you want to hear. 

Some towns and cities hit all-time record lows for the month of February last weekend to kill off whatever didn't die in previous freezes this winter. 

The state was hit by a freeze back on December 30, with more freezes in mid-January before a series of frigid nights began around in the final week of January and intensified in February. 

It takes awhile for freeze damage to crops to become fully apparent. Farmers and agricultural organizations in Florida are just starting to assess the damage. So far, it's not looking good. 

CENTRAL FLORIDA

In central Florida, WFTV reports total losses at central Florida blueberry farms: 

"At H&A Farms, owner Michael Hill says his blueberry crop was wiped out because of the cold snap over the weekend. 'This whole farm is a complete loss,' They have a thousand acres of blueberry plants around the state. He cut into a blueberry to us the inside. "That's all brown. It's supposed to be green. 

Hill says they pack 40 percent of Florida's blueberries, which go to stores like Publix, Aldi and Costco. And because these berries died, Michael says he will no longer need the 2,000 workers to pick them in the fields or the hundreds needed to pack them."

The crop losses will have a ripple effect. Forklift operators, quality control specialists, shipping coordinators, boxers, stackers, packers, all those occupations in Florida blueberry industry vanished in a single night of cold weather. 

At one citrus farm in Plant City, in central Florida east of Tampa, temperatures remained below 28 degrees for more than six hours on both last Friday and Saturday nights. Even with covering trees with ice to protect the crops, damage starts when temperatures fall to 28 degrees or lower for four consecutive hours. 

At least eight to 10 percent of the current citrus crop was destroyed, making this the worst citrus freeze since at least 2010. Future citrus crops might be affected, too. 

"There will be heavy leaf loss from the frost damage and some of the young trees we've planted over the past ew months probably won't make it,' Trevor Murphy, the citrus grower in Plant City told AccuWeather. "The bloom and new flush on the trees will not make it either - we should have our main bloom toward the end of February into the first part of March. It'll be a few days until we start seeing leave and fruit drop. Coldest and longest duration of cold I've had since I've been growing oranges."

Also in Plant City, a farmer named Jonathan Allen, said his 120-acre field of sweet corn was wiped out. When farmers get desperate, they get creative. He tried building a berm and flooding the field to create a warmer microclimate, but the wind was so strong the subzero cold blasted right through the fields.  

"This freeze is the worst that I can remember, probably worse than 1989....Across the board it's devastation, complete devastation."

SOUTH FLORIDA

The more recent cold wave, on the weekend of January 31-February 1 blew all the way through South Florida and beyond. A town in Cuba reached 32 degrees, the first time on record that anyplace in Cuba reached the freezing point. 

Unlike previous cold waves, then, South Florida agriculture was trashed.  

As Axios Miami reports: 

Markon Cooperative, a North American produce supplier, wrote in market update on Wednesday that "recent freezing temperatures across Florida will  have a major impact on current crop production."

So yeah, that's really bad, since so much of our stuff comes from Florida. And I"m unsure how Trump's tariffs affect the price of food coming in from different nations, like Mexico. 

 Axios Miami says Markon Cooperatives affiliated squash growers report more than 50 percent of that crop has been lost. Bell pepper loses are at nearly 50 percent. Tomato growers say their fields have definitely suffered damage, but how much was still being assessed at the end of this week.

 One tomato grower told CBS Miami that a good 20 percent of his crop was probably lost. 

LANDSCAPES AND FIRES

Across most of Florida, plants, palms and some trees are now brown, wilted and battered. Some people, assuming climate change made them safe, planted tropical trees and plants in central Florida that don't tolerate freezes. 

These plants had managed to grow for years in warmer winters, only to be wrecked by this month's freeze. Proving the climate change is uneven. The general warming trend is punctuated by extremes, like the Arctic cold Florida has experienced lately.  

Floridians are being advised to leave their trashed landscaping alone for now. Then, when spring buds and shoots begin to appear, property owner will know what is destroyed and has to be removed or trimmed and which plants will survive.

Lastly, Florida now faces an increased fire risk. The state is often prone to wildfires in late winter and early spring, as the usual warm season thunderstorms are usually absent. And right now, almost all of Florida is experiencing a drought. 

This year, because of the freeze, the landscape isn't as green as it usually is. There's now a lot of dead vegetation that can easily make fires spread quickly.  Several fires were already burning before last weekend's freeze, and this will just make things worse.

No rain is forecast in central and southern Florida for at least the next seven days. Northern Florida is expecting only light rain at best.

At least it's starting to warm up in Florida. Another frost is expected tonight in far northern parts of the Sunshine State. But after that, for the foreseeable future, anyway, further frosts are unlikely for at least a week or two, if not more. 

Arctic Blast Roars In; Enjoy Freezing Your Dupa Off

Vermont State plow truck caught on traffic cam this morning
clearing Interstate 89 in Bolton. Road conditions were 
definitely iffy this morning as an Arctic cold front brought
plunging temperatures and gusty winds to the state.

Our big blast of ridiculous Arctic air was arriving as i wrote this. Yippy, I guess. 

As of 7 a.m. the cold front was approaching Lake Champlain. Ahead of the front, temperatures were in the reasonable teens, with fairly light winds. There was an inch or two of fresh fluffy snow on the ground out there. All in all, very lovely.

Then the front crashed through. You could see the data from New York and northwestern Vermont as soon as the cold front went through.

 The temperature dropped to zero or below and the wind immediately became strong and gusty from the north. In many spots a  burst of heavier snow accompanies the transition into our Siberian weekend. 

The front had just barely passed Burlington as of 7 a.m. At that point, they saw a burst of heavy snow, and winds immediately rose to near 30 mph in gusts. 

So today will not be a pleasant one. Some of you in eastern Vermont will still be basking in what is comparatively summer warmth when you read this, as you might still be in the teens for temperatures for awhile this morning. 

But not for long!

This obviously won't be a record-breaking cold blast for Vermont. We've seen worse in the past. For comparison, the coldest actual temperature in this Arctic weekend in Burlington will probably be near 10 below.  Record lows this time of year are in the mid and upper 20s below zero.   

The air from Siberia that's moving in this morning is actually about as cold as the air we saw in an Arctic blast on January 23-25. This one will feel a little worse than the January cold because we'll have more wind this time. 

The overall forecast has not changed much since yesterday. In Vermont, it might not go as quickly below zero today as it did in New York, because the front is coming through the Green Mountain State at a time of day the temperature is normally rising. 

The temperature should fall throughout the day in Vermont. It might briefly hold steady early this afternoon with the sun coming out, but it won't matter. Most of us will spend the day within a few degrees either side of 0. 

Gusty north winds blowing all that fluffy snow around will make it feel brutal out there. 

Road conditions this morning weren't great, either, and will probably be slow to improve. The snow will tend to taper off as the morning goes on. The mountains could hold to a little fresh, windblown falling snow this afternoon.

If you insist on going skiing or riding today, you might want to check with your favorite ski area first.The resorts might have wind holds on some of their lifts. And wind chills on exposed mountain slopes will be falling into the 20s, 30s and even possibly 40s below zero this afternoon.

The wind will continue to crank all night tonight at between 10 and 20 mph as temperatures fall to within a few degrees either side of 10 below.  The combination will bring wind chills close to 30 below. 

 We're getting into late winter now. The sun angle is improving a bit. It's now the same angle as it was in the opening days of November. That higher sun angle will allow us to warm up to -- get ready for this! -- 5 above zero or so Sunday afternoon.   I think if this same cold wave hit in late December or early January, we might have highs at or below zero instead because of the lower sun angle earlier in the winter. 

There's your sign of spring, I guess.

It'll quickly go back below zero tomorrow evening and stay there until around mid morning Monday.

We're still looking at a warming trend next week. Monday should get up into the teens. Still cold, but better. After a final below zero morning low Tuesday for most of us, the rest of the week should be pretty average for mid-February. There might be a little snow, but nothing really to worry about. 

For a good month now, the computer models have kept cranking out large, complex storms for us roughly 10 days from when those forecasts are released. Then when we get closer to the date of the supposed storm, practically nothing shows up.

This morning's American model was no different. Social media scare mongers might seize on that computer model to say we're in for big, nasty storms February 18 and 22.  Don't believe it. Only start getting worried about a big winter storm if meteorologists are saying one is coming within three or four days.  

By the way, our Siberian express cold wave is more impress in the Mid-Atlantic States than it is here.

The onslaught of frigid weather is being accompanied by wind gusts to 60 mph in places like Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. 

In Washington DC the wind chill is forecast to be below zero for up to 30 consecutive hours. That's the longest stretch of such cold for them since 1994. Some power outages caused by the high winds might not get repaired for a couple days because of the frigid weather, making this Siberian Express especially dangerous in that region. 

 

Some Of America's Wildest Winter Storm Videos Of 2026 Part 2

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina did not look like the warm
vacation destination it usually is judging by this photo
taken just after last weekend's southern snowstorm.
Photo from Visit Myrtle Beach
South Carolina via Facebook.

It's been a dramatic winter of storms in the U.S. There's been a lot of videos floating around social media proving that fact. 

I've already put up one round of videos back on January 28.

But, more storms, more video! So let's get into it: 

Back in late January, just after the ice storm that slammed Mississippi, Tennessee and surrounding areas, the weight of the ice was still crumbling southern buildings even a couple days after the precipitation ended. 

Here's a dramatic surveillance video of a building in Benton, Arkansas losing the battle against the weight on the roof. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Video by Storm Chaser Aaron Rigsby of wild blizzard conditions on Cape Hatteras last Saturday and Saturday night, followed by a house fire Sunday morning in Nags Head. People down there had their hands full. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Reed Timmer, who normally chases tornadoes, chased the winter storm down to Emerald Isle, on the barrier islands not far from Cape Lookout, North Carolina. He found snow drifts nearly burying cars. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina looked strange in the snow, too. Those palmetto trees looked out of place in the near blizzard conditions and in under the bright blue skies and blowing snow the next day. Again click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Farmers in Florida often spray water on crops when temperatures fall below freezing. This actually protects the plants when temperatures go into the upper 20s and low 30s. 

But in at least one case, at a blueberry farm, the ice quickly grew inches and inches thick because it was so cold, and the subfreezing temperatures lasted so long, that the ice accumulated rapidly. The wind also knocked over equipment, increasing the volume of water hitting the fields.   Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

If people thought the snow was too deep where they were, they should look at the Tug Hill Plateau near Lake Ontario, New York. The region gets blasted by huge lake effect snows almost every winter. This year has been especially big on snow there, as the lake keeps delivering, and a lack of thaws has kept much of the snow on the ground. 

By the way, a little more lake affect snow is forecast for the area in the next few days, but it will only be a few inches. Not several feet. For a look, here's a news video from the area: As always, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Sad stories come out after storms like this from sometimes unexpected places. In Nashville, a plant store that sold mostly cactus and succulents lost power for a week, damaging the plants to the point they can't be sold. The owner lost $100,000 in merchandise. The insurer State Farm initially said they would cover the damage, but, as big corporations do, found a way to weasel out paying. 

It does look like people are trying to donate to help the store owner out. Here's the cautionary news cast. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that.  

Bracing For The Cold Snap In Vermont/Northeast

Snow forecast through tomorrow. But the fluffy snow we'll'
get isn't our big problem. The Arctic cold this weekend will
be what to watch out for. 

 Editor's Note: I'm recovering from my Wednesday eye surgery, which went well, so I might be posting at odd times or not as frequently as usual for awhile yet. We apologize for the inconvenience.

It got below zero in most places around Vermont early today. That's become a bit of a routine. That's the 11th below zero day Burlington  has had this winter and there are several more coming. 

The last time we had more below zero days in a  winter was just a few years back in 2021-22 with 20 days zero or below. 

Back in the 1960s, 1970s or even 1980s, we'd routinely have two or three dozen subzero days each winter, so this is no great shakes compared to what your parents or grandparents went through. 

There are some things about the cold weather we've had this year that feel novel. On instance is, of course Lake Champlain, which, if it didn't completely freeze over last night, probably will between now and early next week. 

Many parts of Lake Champlain, including inside the Burlington Breakwater have been ice-free or too unsafe to walk on in recent years. This year the area between Burlington's Waterfront Park and the Breakwater have become a crowd pleaser.  

Until tonight, anyway, there hasn't been much snow at all since January 26. Sections of the lake, like some area inside the breakwater and many other areas, have become great for ice skating. 

Enjoy if you can this afternoon, as this weekend will be terrible for outdoor winter fun. 

It'll cloud up as we go through late this afternoon and evening ahead of our Blast from Siberia. 

The bulk of the snow should come through roughly between around midnight and mid-morning Saturday. A bit of an upper level low along the cold front might enhance the snowfall a little. It'll amount to two of three inches of fluff for most of us. Maybe a little less than that east of the Green Mountains. And maybe four to five inches right in the ski resort zones of the Green Mountains. 

The snow might briefly come fairly hard while the cold front is passing by early tomorrow morning. The best guess is the front will make it into the Champlain Valley by roughly 4 a.m. and will pass into New Hampshire within a couple hours, give or take, after that. 

Our daytime highs will be in the mid teens to around 20 in the wee hours of tomorrow before the Arctic front blasts through. The Arctic air means business and it will come in fast on strong north winds. The temperature will fall all day.

That fluffy snow will blow around in wind that will gust over 30 mph. So there will probably be visibility problems on the roads in open areas even after the snow stops. Travel on the highways won't be great for the first part of Saturday, so you'll want to fit that into your plans.

Various cold weather alerts are in effect, which might make things a little confusing. Here in the North Country, they issue a cold weather advisory if forecasters think the wind chill will be between 20 an 30 below. An extreme cold warning goes into effect if the wind chill is going to be 30 below or worse.

Since the cold air is arriving in New York first and will establish itself more deeply during the day, an extreme cold warning is in effect on that side of the lake from 7 a.m. tomorrow to 1 p.m. Sunday.  

The wind Saturday might be a bit stronger in southern Vermont than in the north, which would lower the wind chill somewhat. So the southernmost two counties in Vermont are also under an extreme cold warning tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The rest of Vermont is under a cold weather advisory from late tomorrow afternoon to early Sunday afternoon. 

I wouldn't worry about the distinction between cold advisories and warnings and exactly when they go into effect. Just know it will be dangerously frigid outdoors in Vermont and surrounding states and in Quebec from roughly mid to late morning tomorrow well into Sunday.

I'm almost happy I have an eye injury as it gives me yet another excuse not to go outside this weekend 

That little upper level low that's coming with our cold front will be an ingredient that will feed a "bomb cyclone" or rapidly developing nor'easter far offshore of New England. 

The squeeze play between that bomb cyclone and the Arctic air we have coming in from Siberia will keep the wind going Saturday night. That's when things get really bad. Overnight lows will be near 10 below, or maybe low teens below. But the winds will keep gusting to maybe 25 mph or so.  That's when the wind chills go into the 20s an 30s below.

It's the kind of night I worry about if somebody crashes off a road at 2 in the morning and just freezes to death there. Or an overworked wood stove sets a house on fire.  People who live there, escape out into the cold in their pajamas, if they're lucky enough to escape at all. Then imagine you're a fire chief managing the task of putting the fire out in that weather. 

All kinds of dark scenarios go through my head when it gets this cold. Winter doesn't always inspire a glass half full kind of attitude.

Anyway, we get to Sunday and it will be bright and sunny. Yay!  But the strengthening February sun will only briefly get us a little above zero in the afternoon, and we'll still have a north breeze to keep the wind chill ridiculous. 

The wind will die down a little Sunday night. But the air should stir enough to prevent us from getting to say 20 or 30 below, like it would if it went dead calm.

But expect lows in the teens below zero by early Monday morning. And wind chills perhaps in the 20s below again.  

A warming trend of sorts will start Monday. By then we should get into the low teens. That's still cold but will fantastic after the weekend we'll have.

The rest of the week will be probably just a tiny bit cooler than average for mid-February. We'll have highs in the 20s, lows in the single numbers. Pretty close to the way this week has been. We'll take it! 

Enjoy The Semi-Heatwave: Vermont/Eastern U.S. Still In For Brutal Weekend Arctic Blast

Satellite photo from early this afternoon shows a little 
open water on Lake Champlain still. It might freeze
over tonight with calm winds and lows near 0. If not
the next, far more brutal cold wave over the weekend
and Monday should do it. 

Editor's Note: I'm recovering from yesterday's' eye surgery, which went well, so I might be posting at odd times or not as frequently as usual for awhile yet. We apologize for the inconvenience. 

Wow, we almost got up to normal in Vermont temperatures in Burlington yesterday. The average temperature was 20 degrees, which was just half a degree below normal. We haven't had a warmer than average day since January 23. 

As of today, we've had 15 consecutive days in Burlington that never got above freezing. That's nowhere near our longest stretch on record, which was 51 days from December 22, 1976 to February 11 1977,

We're not even that close to getting into the top 10 list for consecutive subfreezing days which is 29 days, set on four different occasions must recently from January 5 to February 3, 2004.

Even so, we've got quite a few days to go without any thawing, and there will be a brutal Arctic blast thrown in for good measure. 

Today, as you have been able to tell, is nice. It's been in the 20s this afternoon, the sun is out, who can complain? 

Satellite photos this afternoon still show a fairly large area of open water right in the middle of Lake Champlain but it still could freeze overnight. Ice forms best on the lake when it's at least near or a little below zero and there's calm winds. Wind would push the ice around and break it up. We're expecting exactly those conditions tonight. 

We'll find out tomorrow whether the lake actually freezes or not. Friday will be another nice day with a fair amount of sun and temperatures getting back into the low and mid 20s. Still vaguely cooler than average for this time of year, but not bad. 

BUT THEN........

Our long-advertised brutal Arctic cold front will bring one to three inches of light, fluffy snow, with a bit more in the mountains and maybe the far northern Champlain Valley late Friday night and Saturday morning. But that's not what we're worried about.

The air we're getting is coming is a straight shot from Siberia. It went up and over the North Pole and is blasting its way toward us in New England. Aren't we lucky?   

The big temperature crash is coming a few hours later than we saw in earlier forecasts. Instead of hitting on Friday evening, the real plunge in temperatures won't come until a little before dawn on Saturday. High for the day will be in the teens in the hours just after midnight, so we won't have a rare day in which the high is below zero.

But don't you worry if you want an unbearably cold Saturday, we got ya! By mid to late morning Saturday and continuing through the afternoon, the temperature will head toward subzero readings.  

Winds will gust past 30 mph. On top of the dangerously cold air out there, the fluffy snow that is on the ground now and is coming will blow around a lot. 

Yuck! This might well be the cruelest cold we've had our winter.

Already, an extreme cold watch is in effect for wind chills as low as 35 below zero from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.  Extreme cold watches, along with winter weather and high wind alerts cover most of the northeastern United States as we all gear up for a rough weekend. 

Parts of North Carolina had a little more snow last night, so they are once again dealing with icy patches there.

It's still unseasonably cold in Florida, and a freeze warning is up again for the northern part of the state tonight. However, most fortunately for them, the intense cold wave that's hitting the Northeast this weekend will not hit Florida much. No hard freezes are likely in Florida after tonight. 

Back here in Vermont, the wind will die down slightly Saturday night to 10 to 20 mph hour, but the temperature will keep going down as well. By dawn, it will be in the upper single numbers to mid-teens below zero.

Sunday  I supposed will be better, but that's not saying much. The wind should gradually get lighter. The sun will probably drive afternoon temperatures into the single digits above zero for a few hours.   But it will be right back down well below zero Sunday night and Monday morning 

The AWESOME news is this might be the last horrible Arctic spell for awhile. The weather pattern is changing just enough so that new blasts of Arctic air won't be nearly as intense next week and beyond. 

That's not to say that this will be the last subzero cold of the winter. It can get below zero well into mid-March. But we are probably in for at least a semi-break.

It'll still be cold Monday and to a lesser extent Tuesday, with subzero mornings both days. But the second half of the week will at least be closer to normal. 

We don't have a lot of details on the second half of next week because the computer models are all over the place on that one.  Which means we also don't know when the next snow will come after whatever falls Friday night and Saturday. We'll probably have nothing until at least next Wednesday.