Vermont's Active June Weather: Strong, Winds, Strong Storms, Strong Heat

Thunderstorms over South Burlington, Vermont 
Thursday afternoon created this moody scene.
Things will remain active with oddly strong, 
gusty winds this morning, a possible weird
thunderstorm outbreak before dawn Sunday,
then a short, but intense heat wave. in Vermont

 After the severe thunderstorm watch was lifted last evening, a couple more strong, but not severe storms flared up around the region as our late solstice season dusk came Thursday evening. 

Most of that activity was in southern and eastern Chittenden County and in Rutland County. 

Though there was some gusty winds, lightning and torrential downpours with those storms, there's no reports of any real damage. 

The thunderstorms are long gone, but the risk of wind damage hasn't.

TODAY

In the winter, when a cold front comes through northern New England, there's often a period of strong west winds, often gusting to 45 to 50 mph. 

 This is usually not that big a deal, as leafless, frozen trees don't bend much in the wind. Also, if you're not crazy, you're not out in a little boat on Lake Champlain during these January or February wind storms. 

Summer cold fronts almost never have these mini-wind storms with them. 

This morning, though, the cold front that went through weirdly does have that batch of 40 to 50 mph gusts behind it. This kind of situation almost never happens in June, but it's 2025, so everything has to be weird.

The wind was rising at dawn today and it should be quite a gusty morning and maybe early afternoon across Vermont and surrounding areas. 

A wind advisory is in effect for most of Vermont, along much of the rest of New England and northeastern New York.  Gusts could reach to 40 or even 50 mph for a time today. 

Such winds have a greater impact than they would in the winter, Leaves on trees act like little sails, so the leaves and wind pull trees laterally. Enough sometime to knock them over or pull branches off. So we might be seeing  that and maybe some scattered power outages this morning and early afternoon. 

Stay off the lakes during this wind, especially on broad Lake Champlain. These types of gusts would really put boats, kayaks and canoes in real trouble. Although it's been warm lately, lake water temperatures aren't exactly like bathwater. Still chilly.. Hypothermia is a risk if you get dumped. Plus trying to swim through those big waves is a challenge to say the least.

Showers, especially widespread in northern Vermont this morning, will tend to diminish and disappear in favor of sunshine and lessening winds this afternoon.

SATURDAY: 

Still looking like a rare nice one for Vermont. After a blessedly comfortable sleeping night tonight, sunshine during the day would boost Saturday afternoon  temperatures to near 80 degrees. Winds will be light, so Saturday will be the day to take your boat or kayak out onto the lake.  Humidity levels will also be quite reasonable. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING

There's still debate as to whether - well, whatever you want to call it -  a ridge runner, or mesoscale convective system if you're scientific - will give us just give us some light showers or a very stormy late Saturday night or Sunday morning.

In any event, a cluster of storms shouldbe heading east across the Great Lakes Saturday and then southeast into northern New York and maybe New England overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.  Though still uncertain, it sounds like this might come at us as a noisy group of thunderstorms with locally torrential rain.

Worst case scenario is a few of these could be severe with damaging winds and hail.  This would be yet another weird moment. Usually, when there is severe storms they are least likely in the predawn hours. Severe thunderstorms are normally  creatures of the afternoon and evening. 

For now, some rain is a good bet later Saturday night and early Sunday. But just to be safe, I'd secure outdoor furniture again  Saturday evening and keep a weather radio handy that would wake you up early Sunday in case dangerous storms are heading our way. 

I''ll update all this tomorrow as well,

THE HEAT

The showers and storms will be riding along a strong warm front that will lift north of us during the day Sunday. Which opens the door to our well-advertised big hot spell. Which will probably break some record highs by Monday.

How hot it gets Sunday depends upon how fast the showers and clouds clear out on Sunday. If they disappear early enough in the day,  some places could hit 90 degrees. But for now, it looks like most of us will see temperatures in the 80s with a lot of humidity. 

After a stuffy, uncomfortable night, Monday arrives and hoo-boy!

Pretty much everywhere except the very high elevations in Vermont should be above 90 degrees Monday and records will likely fall. 

The National Weather Service this morning was going with a possible high temperature of 98 degrees in Burlington Monday. That would be the second hottest June day on record. (The only hotter one would be the 100 degrees on June 19, 1995).

The record high of 90 degrees in Montpelier looks like it's going to be toast, since the predicted high Monday there is 95 degrees.

This will be accompanied by high humidity, so the heat index is going to be above 100 degree in much of Vermont.  This combination of heat and humidity will make this one of the most dangerous heat days we've seen in quite some time. 

Tuesday will be almost as hot, or just as hot in southern Vermont. A cold front will be coming in from the north, but likely too late to cool us off Tuesday. Things will start to get better Tuesday night. 

People who have pre-existing health problems, very young children and pregnant people are most susceptible to the dangers of heat. So are athletes and outdoor workers.  Monday and probably Tuesday are the wrong days to run for miles, or install that new roof or asphalt driveway. 

BEYOND TUESDAY

Many cold fronts that end big heat waves are often accompanied by lots of severe thunderstorms. That looks unlikely in this case. Other than the heat, atmospheric conditions don't look ripe for many storms. There could some thunderstorms, maybe even a severe one or two, But so far, the blessed cold front coming in later Tuesday looks pretty tame.  

And SO welcome. By Wednesday, temperatures will be back down to something pretty normal for mid June. Humidity levels will have crashed down to comfortable levels on Wednesday, too. 

We might even get a sunny day out of this, but the cold front might stall not too far to the south. If that happens, we might end up with a showery, possibly muggy regime later next week.  

Thursday Evening Update: Vermont Storms Not Quite Over Yet

Storm clouds loomed over Lake Champlain Thursday
afternoon, looking west from South Burlington, Vermont.
 There were scattered instances of severe storms in 
the state today, and some storms might continue this evening.

As expected, there have been a fair number of heavy showers and thunderstorms around Vermont today. A small number of them have been severe.  

As of 5:30 p.m., so far the worst one appears to be one that hit north central Vermont a little before 4 pm. 

This was part of a line of strong storms that developed just west of Lake Champlain starting at around 1:30 p.m. , crossed the Champlain Valley and into the Green Mountains by late afternoon.

Trees were reportedly blown down with this storm in South Cambridge, Eden Mills and North Fairfax.

Although the storm in St. Albans wasn't severe, it did produce strong, gusty winds. Strong enough to cause a neighborhood emergency near the lake. 

A large tree reportedly blew over onto a house and propane tank on Hathaway Point Road near the lake. The incident broke a line between two propane tanks, which prompted evacuations of nearby homes. At last report, the leak had been fixed and residents were allowed to return home.   

Another severe thunderstorm was blowing through far southern Vermont along and just north of Route 9 between Bennington and Brattleboro as of late afternoon. 

At around 5 p.m. storms that appeared to be fairly strong were moving northeastward near Stowe and in northern Rutland County. 

Other storms might pop up between now and just after dark in Vermont.  There is still a chance one or two of them could become severe, but the chances that they'll become destructive will decrease through the evening.

Overnight, the showers and storms will end all together as a cold front moves through. 

Watch out on Lake Champlain Friday morning. A period of pretty strong west winds is expected for awhile before noon tomorrow. Gusts could reach as high as 45 mph with wave heights going as high as three feet.

It's unusual to get winds like this in June outside of thunderstorms. On land, the wind might be strong enough to knock down a few trees and branches here and there. The wind will subside nicely during the afternoon.

We're still looking at a possible stormy overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. That situation is still iffy,  but we'll want to get more information on that. I'll update you tomorrow morning. 

 It looks like the temperature was able to sneak up to 90 degrees this afternoon in Burlington just before a brief thunderstorm arrived there.  That's the second time this summer already it's been 90 degrees there.

A hot spell is still in the works Sunday to Tuesday, especially Monday. It could get up to 90 degrees on Sunday if it clears up fast enough. Monday looks like a lock for near record high temperatures in the mid-90s. Depending upon how fast a cold front arrives, Tuesday looks like it could be impressively hot, too. 

Updates on all this will come in my post tomorrow morning. We seem to be in an active June weather pattern for a little while, don't we?

Early Afternoon Vermont Severe Storms Update: Severe Storm Watch Issued

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center around noon
focused on this area, including Vermont that
is likely to have scattered severe thunderstorms
for the rest of this afternoon. 

 A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect throughout Vermont and eastern New York.

The severe storm watch is effect now until 9 p.m. this evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center released what is known as a Mesoscale Discussion around noon. These focus on particular areas of interested in which potentially dangerous weather is coming soon.

This one focused on Vermont, eastern New York and part of northeast Pennsylvania. 

According to the statement, storm coverage in the region covered will be pretty scattered and not particularly widespread. But those relatively few places that do get nailed might really get it. 

By far the most likely source of problems from these storms would be damaging straight line winds. We could see a couple places deal with large hail as well.

There's still a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup tornado.

Even if a particular thunderstorm isn't quite severe when it hits you, watch out for dangerous cloud to ground lighting and torrential downpours. 

Thunderstorms were already firing up in central New York as of 1:30 p.m. They were rapidly heading northeastward toward Vermont. The fact that they were forward speed is so fast means you might not get all that much lead time between the time you might receive a severe thunderstorm warning and the time you actually get the storm. 

It's good that they're moving rapidly, because that won't give them much time to dump enough rain to trigger flash flooding. Still, a couple places could get some flash flooding today if they get "lucky "enough for storms 

After the initial scattered batches of storms that come through Vermont more storms could arrive with additional downpours and lightning. The atmosphere might be somewhat more stable by then, so that might reduce, but not eliminate the chances the evening storms being severe. 

But we're not entirely sure about that, so stay tuned. And keep your eyes to the skies this afternoon. Be ready to move indoors quickly. And have a ready source of receive severe weather warnings, such as wa weather radio or reliable local media. 

All Signs Point Toward Severe Weather In Vermont/Eastern U.S/Quebec Today, Nasty Hot Spell Coming

Today's updated severe thunderstorm threat around the
nation. Yellow areas including Vermont, are in a level
two out of five risk zone for severe storms
meaning there will be scattered instances of damaging
winds. There's a level three of five in the
Mid-Atlantic states (orange shading). The risk
of damaging winds is somewhat higher there, 

Those who were looking for thunderstorms in Vermont yesterday ended up coming up empty. 

Most of the storms stayed in New York, with flash flooding out in central and western New York. 

Some showers and storms did venture into far northwest Vermont but petered out rather quickly last evening.

Today is when everybody in a wide swath from southern Quebec down to the Carolinas is under threat from severe storms.  This obviously includes Vermont. 

Not everybody in this vast patch of real estate will see severe storms, of course, but the threat is there. 

This risk in the entire region I outlined includes damaging straight line winds, large hail, downpours torrential enough to set off some flash floods and even a low but not zero risk of tornadoes.

The biggest threat for tornadoes appears to be in the mostly flatlands of southern Quebec, near and south of Montreal. The higher threat of wind damage at the moment seems to be around New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and part of Virginia.

That does not mean Vermont is off the hook of course. We still have all of the above threat in play.

On top of that, another round of storms is possible Saturday night here in the Green Mountain State, followed by a brief, dangerous, very torrid spell of weather.

So let's next get to work planning your stormy day today, at least as things stood this morning. Stay on your toes, because things can change rapidly though the day.

TODAY'S SETUP

A sort of "preview" storm late Wednesday afternoon
looking west from Georgia Vermont. You can see
a column of torrential rain in the distance. Very few
storms in Vermont Wednesday, but they'll be much
more numerous today. 

A batch of showers and brief downpours was moving into mostly, but not exclusively into northwest Vermont as of 8 a.m. It looks like most of those were brushing far northwest parts of the state from St. Albans, north. 

It's so humid with an already unstable atmosphere, that a pop up downpour or thunderstorm could happen randomly almost anywhere in Vermont this morning.

They will be relatively few and far between, but enough so that you'll need to keep your eyes on the skies and be ready to head indoors quickly. Even this morning. 

It'll be interesting to see whether these showers, and lingering clouds behind them that would last most of the morning, will stabilize the atmosphere some and reduce the chances of strong storms later. Or maybe this will form a sort of new temperature boundary across part of Vermont that would enhance the storms that due later. 

There will also be a stalled west to east front across southern Quebec most of today that I think will enhance changing wind directions with height in the atmosphere. That's why I think there could be a tornado or two in southern Quebec. 

Northern Vermont will be on the edge of that, so despite the cloud cover today, the chances of severe storms remains in effect north of Route 2. 

All of Vermont should have plenty of humidity today, and especially places south of Route 2 should get into the mid and upper 80s to near 90 in a few places in the lower Connecticut River Valley. That's one ingredient needed for big storms.

The other storm ingredient is a cold front heading due east across New York State towards us. That will act a bit like a snow plow, providing lift in the atmosphere as it shoves into the muggy air over us. That lift is the rising air currents that lead to towering clouds, i.e thunderstorms.

THE RESULTS

This will be a classic summer severe weather day in Vermont. By that, I mean a few towns - definitely a minority of places in Vermont - will see damaging wind gusts that would take down trees and power lines, and possibly cause a little structural damage.

Most but not all of us will see some sort of thunderstorm today. Some of us will get bullseyed by downpours and a lot of lightning and some wind gusts. A few of us will be on the edge of some of these storms and have only minor effects and not a whole lot of rain.

Another few of us will get nothing at all. People in those towns will wonder what the fuss was about, having endured a humid, but rain-free day. 

I doubt there will be one solid line of storms that comes through. Instead, we're in for short lines and clusters of storms that will keep passing through, mostly between around 2 p.m. this afternoon and 11 p.m tonight. 

I wouldn't expect the storms today to be severe after dark, so we'll say 2 to 8 p.m. is the most likely time for anything severe. 

The other threat from today's storms is flash flooding. The good news is each storm will be moving along at a good clip. That means those torrential downpours won't last long in any particular spot.  They won't have time to put down enough water to cause a flood.

The problems would come if a few unlucky spots get three or four or five rounds of storms instead of just one or two. Then you start running into issues. Flash floods today in Vermont if they happen should be pretty isolated and not cover large areas.

FRIDAY:

Kind of a weird day, but nothing dramatic. The morning will be cool and windy and kind of cloudy, making it almost feel like autumn was in the air. Temperatures before noon should hold in the 60s.  Then, the flow of cool  Canadian air will get most shut off pretty fast. By late afternoon, it should be back in the mid and upper 70s with sharply diminished winds. The sun will have come back out. 

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT

Saturday itself looks like it will be a nice day for a change. We should have quite a bit of sun, with highs peaking within a couple degrees either side of 80 degrees. The humidity should be moderate, so enjoy!

However, we're still looking at the risk of a cluster of storms blasting through overnight Saturday night and early Sunday. We're still not sure exactly where they'll focus, or even whether they will entirely hit Vermont. But there is the risk of a noisy night with thunder and locally torrential downpours if we get hit squarely.

Stay tuned!

THE HEAT

The hot weather will begin to flood in on Sunday. It still looks like a decent beach day, with highs in the 80s to near 90. You'll also notice the  humidity building.

Monday looks like it'll be the worst of it, It now looks like actual high temperatures should hit the mid-90s in many valley locations in Vermont. Combined with the humidity, the heat index will probably be over 100 degrees. 

It'll be a dangerous day for anybody with health issues or those who exert themselves outdoors. Monday's the day to really take it easy, and seek out air conditioning if you can.

Record highs might fall. The current record highs for Monday are 96 degrees in Burlington, 90 in Montpelier and 93 in St. Johnsbury. 

Monday night will be dreadfully hot and stuffy, with lows staying near or above 70 for most of us with stifling humidity. 

Tuesday is now a bit of a wild card, depending on the timing of a cold front. If it comes through early, the heat won't be too bad, especially north.  If it comes in the afternoon, that means it'll uncomfortably hot with a risk of strong storms. If it comes through in the evening, then Tuesday will be just as bad as Monday.

We'll keep an eye on that.

The front will have come through by Wednesday, but should linger close by, meaning we'll remain at risk for showers and maybe storms later into next week too. It should actually stay near to a little warmer than average even behind the cold front that will end the heat wave 

 

Strong/Severe Storms, Flood Risk, High Humidity, And Eventually, Heat Spices Up Vermont Forecast

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of the eastern
U.S. including all of Vermont in a slight risk zone
(yellow shading) for severe storms Thursday. 

The weather here in Vermont is going to be more interesting than usual for this time of year over the next few days. 

The word "interesting" when describing weather forecasts is seldom welcome, as that usually spells trouble. And sure enough, the weather might complicate your life over the next few days.  

We have high humidity, the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, a bit of a flash flood risk (again!), and eventually some dangerous summer heat. 

Tomorrow and next Monday and Tuesday are the biggest high alert days.. But, as we usually do, let's walk you through day by day, as every day for at least the next six has something noteworthy to offer us. 

TODAY

The humid air has arrived on schedule. You might have noticed your bedroom getting a bit stuffy overnight. 

The high humidity, combined with expected high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, should be enough to set off some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

They could happen anywhere. There's were already a batch of showers passing through far southern Vermont early this morning. But the storms are most likely this afternoon and early evening in the northwestern third of Vermont and over northern New York.

Few, if any of these storms will get exceptionally strong or severe. But one or two of these storms could provide some gusty winds and heavy downpours. The forward motion of these storms will be kinda lame, so a couple spots in northwestern Vermont could really get dumped on.  

There's no risk of widespread flash flooding or anything like that, but those one or two spots, especially north of Route 2 and west of the Green Mountain, might (or might not!)  have a little problem with driveway and back road washouts, that kind of thing. 

Some places will avoid rain altogether today. Classic hit and miss. 

THURSDAY

This is a higher risk day. The high humidity will still be in place. Sunshine in the morning and early afternoon should boost temperatures into the mid or even upper 80s. A cold front will be approaching to make the air more unstable.

Winds aloft will become stronger, and change directions with height. Those are all ingredients to set off severe thunderstorms. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of Vermont under a slight risk of severe storms on Thursday. That's a level two out of five on the danger scale. It means there should be some scattered severe thunderstorms. 

As is almost always the case with this type of summer storm situation, only a small minority of us Vermonters will experience a severe storm.  Most of us will get at least some rain and hear thunder, and many of us should get at least a brief downpour.

It's just those few spots that will get nailed. It's impossible to tell more than a half hour to an hour in advance who gets the most dangerous storms. So you'll need to have a weather radio or some other source ready tomorrow to get warnings and advisories.

I'd also skip boating around Lake Champlain or hiking to the summits Thursday afternoon. 

The storms tomorrow will come at us either as relatively short lines of big storms or supercells. The biggest threat is from damaging straight line winds.  Large hail is pretty unlikely, but still possible. There's also a very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado mixed in there.

The other threat is flash flooding. Any flooding we do get - if we get any -  will be pretty isolated. Most places should be fine. 

However, the rain will be absolutely torrential in some of Thursday's  storms. Luckily, the storms will be moving right along, so they won't linger over one spot for too long to really flood things out. But if you get squarely hit by a big supercell, or microburst; or if two or more lines of storms hit you in rapid succession, there could be a local flash flood problem or too. 

The bottom line is NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has us in a low level marginal risk zone for localized flash floods 

FRIDAY

We get a break in the action. It'll be somewhat cooler and less humid since the cold front will have gone through.  There could be some lingering showers or garden variety thunderstorms scattered around here or there in the afternoon, especially north, but nothing scary. 

SATURDAY

There's an odd bit of uncertainty in Saturday's forecast.  The strong ridge of high pressure will be beginning to build toward us. That's what will set us up for next week's heat. 

We have to watch out for something called a ridge roller Saturday or Saturday night.. These are clusters of thunderstorms that rotate around the northern edge of a developing ridge of hot high pressure. They'd come in from the Midwest and then head southeastward, possibly in this case through northern New York and northern New England.

These things are super hard to predict three days in advance. Computer models are pretty insistent there will be a "ridge roller" but we don't know where it will go. Maybe through us, maybe across Quebec, maybe to our southwest toward western New York and Pennsylvania. Or maybe it won't happen at all. 

Ridge rollers can be pretty benign, and almost unnoticeable, or they could contain severe thunderstorms and flash floods.  This is just something to keep an eye on.  We'll monitor later forecasts.

SUNDAY

You'll start to notice the heat and humidity building up. It'll be a decent beach day, with a fair amount of sun and highs well into the 80s. Hottest spots could flirt with 90. 

MONDAY AND TUESDAY

Looking hot, with a very good chance of temperatures going over 90 degrees in many spots in Vermont. The humidity will be sky high.  Since this will start on Sunday, we'll have three days of this kind of weather. Which can wear on people after awhile and become dangerous. Especially for the elderly and people with health problems. 

The humidity will ensure that nights will stay very warm and muggy, so you won't get any relief after dark.  If there are people in your life who you worry about in this kind of weather,  it would be a good idea to check up on them early next week. Or better yet, "kidnap" them and take them to a chilly movie matinee, a nice cool air conditioned restaurant or shopping center or something. 

BEYOND TUESDAY

It looks like a cold front will cool things down somewhat by Wednesday. It will be no means get "cold" after the cold front, but it should at least feel more reasonable out there. 

Big Heat Waves Hitting Large Parts Of World, Are We Next?

When you see a weather pattern like this in the
summer with a big ridge or northward bulge in
the jet stream over the Northeast, expect a heat
wave. This is one forecast for next Tuesday, 
though computer models are varying on the
strength and duration of the hot spell. 

With climate change taking hold more and more, dangerous, record breaking heat waves have been hitting different parts of the world each summer in the past few years.  

It's only June, but the deadly extreme heat fest for 2025 has already started here on Earth.

 What strikes me the most is that there are currently so many record heat waves going on in different parts of the globe simultaneously. 

There's always a heat wave somewhere in the summer, but the fact that places as diverse as Japan, France, and Kuwait are breaking all time record highs for the month of June all at the same time is pretty unsettling.

We in Vermont could get at least a taste of the hot weather next week. And I think all time record heat will hit the Green Mountain State within the next few years.  More on that in a bit. 

WORLDWIDE HEAT

First, we'll look at some of the incredible heat withering different parts of the world. Much of this information comes from Maximiliano Hererra, a climatologist who tracks worldwide heat waves.

Our first visit is to Kuwait, since the strongest heat was there. Kuwait is an extraordinary hot nation anyway, but this is ridiculous. At last report, the following Kuwaiti figures haven't been confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization.

But if these temperatures are real, they're insane. 

If the 130 degree temperature in Kuwait is confirmed, it would tie the reliable record for the world's hottest temperature on record, which was 130 degrees in Furnace Creek, Death Valley, California on July 9, 2021.

The widely reported hottest temperature isn 134 degrees in Death Valley on July 10, 1913, but there are questions about the reliability of that long-ago reading. 

EUROPE HEAT

A heat wave is building in Europe, too, with record high temperatures already reported in France and Germany. A few cities have already set record highs for the entire month of June. One town in France has hit 100 degrees over the pst couple of days. It's been as hot as 96 degrees in Germany.

Nights in parts of western Europe have been sultry, giving no real relief from the heat. Overnight lows in much of Germany over the weekend were in the low 70s. 

Mertola, Portugal on Sunday reached 105 degrees, hottest for so early in the season. Parts of Spain broiled over the weekend in temperatures as high as 107 degrees.

ASIA

At least 23 weather stations in China have broken their all time record high temperatures for the month of June. In Japan, at least a dozen cities have set record highs for the entire month of June, with readings reaching the upper 90s.  Parts of Indonesia, India and Pakistan are also reporting unprecedented June heat. 

UNITED STATES

The eastern United States is being plagued by persistent storminess that has led to some terrible flash flooding in the central Appalachians. Those floods are expected to continue for the next couple of days, but a new element is about to be added.

Forecasts call for a strong, hot ridge of high pressure to develop over the East early next week. At least a some record high temperatures are expected from the Plains to the East Coast. It's possible a few cities could see their all-time record for the month of June threatened. 

Some computer models depict insanely hot weather in the Northeast early next, though I think a few of these are overdone.  Some runs of the European model bring New York City to an all time high of 107 degrees. The Euro depicts highs up to 101 degrees in southeast Vermont and 97 degrees as far north as Burlington.

I doubt it will get that hot. I think the European model is exaggerating. But the way things are going around the world, who knows?   

VERMONT FORECAST

A taste of very warm, oppressive weather will arrive tomorrow and Thursday, with high humidity and temperatures well up into the 80s.  This won't be anywhere near any record highs, but it will be our most solid introduction to heat and humidity yet this year.

Showers and thunderstorms both tomorrow and Thursday will help hold temperatures well under 90 degrees, but will help keep the humidity incredibly uncomfortable.

We get a brief break Friday and Saturday with high temperatures both days in the 70s. But then the heat should begin to build back up starting Sunday, when it should get into the 80s with increasing humidity. 

Most forecasts have much of Vermont in the low 90s next Monday and Tuesday. There's a slight chance those outlier models of extreme, record breaking heat early next week are correct, but for now, I'm really doubting that. 

The heat next week should be mercifully brief, as temperatures by midweek should drop some.  But only to levels that are normal, or a little warmer than normal for this time of year. 

The long range weather pattern forecast also suggests that strong heat will spend most of the rest of June and probably beyond lurking not all that far to our south and west.  If the wind swings in the right direction, we have the potential for more big oppressive hot spells through the summer. 

NOAA forecasts for this summer in New England have consistently pointed toward a hotter than normal summer. 

FUTURE HEAT

While June and all-time heat records have been falling worldwide in recent years, the all-time hot records for Vermont remain distinctly old fashioned.

The hottest on record for anywhere in Vermont still stands at the 105 degrees recorded down in Vernon way back on July 4, 1911. The hottest it's ever gotten in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944.

Now that climate change is increasingly in our lives, I think it's just a matter of time before those old records are broken. And I suspect it could come within just a matter of a few to several years.

We've had some incredible, record smashing hot spells in Vermont in recent years, but they have tended to not come in the summer.  It's just a roll of the dice when they hit. 

In Burlington, records go back to the 1880s. But the records for hottest temperature on record for the entire months of February, May, September, November and December have all happened since 2002 - so pretty recently in the grand scheme of things. Just last Halloween we shattered the record for hottest for so late in the season - 78 degrees on October 31.

That's why I think we are close to breaking are all-time record highs. An intense mid-summer unprecedented heat wave feels inevitable in this age of climate change. 

Burlington National Service Radar Won't Be Working Much Of This Week

 A head's up:

A National Weather Service radar image, I used this 
one from Fargo, North Dakota because there were
no rainstorms to show on the NWS local radar,
The NWS radar from the Burlington office will
be down most of this week for repairs, 

If you're used to checking out the National Weather Service Burlington web page, note the weather radar won't be up and running  most of this week. 

So during this time, you won't be able to see the location and direction of any rain or storms that develop in the area.  

You'll have to find alternative weather radar images during that time.  

The National Weather Service radar is down because they need to repair the radar dome in Colchester. The radar that services Albany, New York will also be turned off for repairs. 

The radar installations look like giant white balls atop a tower.

 Strong winds and temperature extremes over time damage some of the panels on these radar structures, so the panels have to be be replaced.  Those pieces can crack, or develop leaks, or even fall apart.

Damaged panels interfere with radar's ability to receive and transmit information, according to the National Weather Service. 

So the repairs are needed. The radar serving northern and central Vermont and northeastern New York will be down starting today. It should be up and running again sometime Thursday. 

While the repairs are  happening, showers and thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday around the area.

A few of the showers and storms could have fairly heavy rain Wednesday. Depending on cloud cover and other factors, we could have a few strong storms and spots of torrential rain Thursday as well. 

Given that,  let's find those alternative ways to find weather radar to keep an eye on any storms that may or may not be headed your way while the National Weather Service fixes their radar. 

Television station WPTZ's radar is quite interactive, which is nice. If you click the "layers" button on the lower right, you have options of seeing what current temperatures, dew point and wind speeds are like, along with  rainfall amounts in the past 24 hours and other information. 

The radar for television station WCAX-TV is set up in a very similar fashion to WPTZ and is just as good. 

The WVNY radar doesn't seem quite as interactive, but does cover a wide area, which is good. 

Of course the big dawgs like The Weather Channel and AccuWeather have weather radar you can use, too. 

All of these radar options are good, but I'll be happy to get the National Weather Service radar back. Only because that's the one I'm used to, I guess.

I wouldn't really recommend downloading a weather app onto your phone, as some of them seem a little dubious to me.  

Nation's Flash Flood Season Off To A Bad Start

The remains of a vehicle are wrapped
around a San Antonio bridge abutment
 after it  was swept away by intense
 flash flooding early Thursday. 

 Deadly flash floods can happen anywhere in the United States at any time of year.

But the humid days of summer tend to bring these tragedies on most frequent. As we in Vermont have seen in the last two summers. 

Hot, humid air can hold a lot of water, and even a small weather disturbance under the right conditions can release torrents, creating flash floods almost in an instant.

Climate change has made this whole situation worse. The hotter, often more humid air brought to his by a warmer atmosphere can store more water in the air than ever before. Which in general leads to more intense rains than we are used to seeing.

It's only mid-June, and we're already starting in with the local, but deadly flash floods in different parts of the natiom

The worst of it so far was in and around San Antonio early Thursday. 

Slow moving thunderstorms settled over the San Antonio area, dumping eight inches of rain in just a few hours, with four inches of rain in just one hour between 3 and 4 a.m. Thursday. 

The flash flood killed 13 people, mostly in cars abruptly swept off a highway into raging waters.  

NBC News reports that at least 15 vehicles were swept into rapidly rising and rapidly flowing water on or near Perrin Beitel Road in San Antonio. At least 10 people from those vehicles were rescued. But other cars were found far downstream, their wreckage sometimes wrapped around bridge abutments or other debris. 

At least 70 water rescues were performed throughout the city. 

San Antonio lies just east of a an escarpment that sometimes helps trap Gulf of Mexico moisture in the region, which can sometimes get dumped in intense thunderstorms. San Antonio is the nation's seventh largest city.

Miles of concrete and asphalt and development gives no place for water to soak in, so downpours rush off in great gushes through parts of the city. Plus, of course, those more intense climate-change driven downpours make things worse.   

It hasn't just been San Antonio lately.   

 Severe flooding hit in and near Wheeling, West Virginia Saturday. At least three people were killed in this flooding and others are missing. Authorities performed numerous water rescues.  Some areas around Wheeling received 2.5 to 4 inches of rain within a half hour. 

On Friday, a flash flood emergency and particularly dangerous situation was declared around Evansville, Indiana. Three to six inches of rain fell within a couple hours there, instantly flooding streets. Numerous people had to be rescued from stranded cars. 

Also on Friday and Saturday, flash floods hit scattered parts of the central Appalachians.

Sunday morning, Oklahoma City was under a flash flood warning for the second time this month. Meteorologists were deeply concerned Sunday about a risk of flooding today in North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.   

Even before summer started, it's been a bad year for flooding in the U.S. Extreme flooding hit areas in and around Kentucky back in February and again in April. 

So far, we in Vermont have been spared the worst of the flooding, but we've already had our share of problems in 2025.  Flash flooding on May 17 damaged roads and homes in Waitsfield, Warren, Hartford, White River Junction and other towns, 

Roads in southeastern Vermont were damaged in flash flooding on June 6-7.   

Looking ahead at the nation's upcoming flash flood prospects, a humid, sluggish airmass is forecast to linger over much of the eastern and southern United States for the next several days.  At least scattered instances of flash flooding are possible daily in various parts of the eastern two thirds of the U.S.

For us in Vermont, the next chance of any flood problems would be this Thursday. It's possible downpours expected Thursday could be intense enough to create isolated instances of flash flooding. However, it's too soon to know for sure.  

Coolish Stretch Of June Weather In Vermont/New England Will End Soon

Vermont had weather winners and losers once again
on Saturday. In this satellite photo taken in the
early afternoon, it was clear near the Canadian border
while the rest of northern Vermont had a mix of
sun and puffy clouds, But southern Vermont was
socked in by the clouds once again, as so often
has been the case lately on Saturdays.

 In recent years, we've had some awful spells of rather intense early season heat and humidity in May and the first half of June in Vermont. 

Summers have been starting earlier than they used to, in large part due to climate change.   

This year so far has been more temperate. It did make it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on June 5, but spells of very warm, humid weather have been brief.

That might be about to change. Warm, very humid air looks like it will flow into northern New England by mid-week. 

After that, there might be a brief cooldown or two, but the overall weather pattern is trending toward warmer, more summery conditions.

THIS WEEKEND

It was a tale of two Vermonts again on Saturday. After some early morning sprinkles, it was gorgeous across northern parts of the state yesterday. We had sunshine, deep blue skies finally free of the smoky haze, a few puffy clouds to decorate the skies and comfortable temperatures in the low 70s.

Meanwhile, southern Vermont was socked in with the clouds most of the day.

Today will be a little more fair to everyone. It'll be partly sunny almost statewide  -- the clouds will sort of be in and out all day -  and there's the slightest chance of a brief shower. But the vast majority of us will stay dry.

An exception would be far southern Vermont, near the Massachusetts border, They're closer to a stalled weather front that's been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic States for days. So clouds will probably dominate out of today in place like Bennington and Brattleboro.

Then changes are afoot

THIS WEEK AND BEYOND

You'll notice the humidity rising day by day early this week from pretty low levels today to really sticky by Wednesday and Thursday.

The dew point is a good indicator of how icky it feels out there. Today, those dew points will be in the 50s, which is comfortable. On Monday, they'll edge closer to 60.  That's still OK, but you'll notice it a little if you're really exerting yourself outdoors. 

Tuesday's dew points will be in the low 60s, which is a little sticky, then in the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. There's your ick factor right there. 

Actual daily temperatures will climb, too, from the lows 70s today, upper 70s Monday, near 80 Tuesday and in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday. 

When you combine such warmth and humidity, you often get showers and thunderstorms. At this point, those seem a safe bet Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too soon to tell, however, if any of those storms would get on the strong side. It's also a little early to figure out if any of those storms will dump a bit too much rain. 

Those details will be ironed in the coming days. 

Forecasts beyond this coming Thursday are a little more questionable, only because a lot can change in the atmosphere over four or five days. Those changes sometimes throw longer range forecasts way off.

But an early guess suggests a brief cooldown coming next weekend (down to near normal mid and upper 70s).  Then, some computer models bring in an even hotter few days right after next weekend. We could have a spell of 90 degree weather in a little over a week from now.

Summer seems to be here, folks.  

Vermont Weekend Rain Streak Lives On, But Weather Will Be Decent. Meanwhile, Baked, Weird Alaska

The sky over St. Albans, Vermont around 7 a.m. tells the
weekend weather story. The darker clouds on the left
are toward the south, the blue skies are to the north.
Those blue skies will spend today fighting their 
way southward across the most of the 
Green Mountain State today. 

The long streak of consecutive weekends with rain or snow lives on in Vermont! This is now officially the 26th consecutive weekend with precipitation in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Um, yay?  

A period of light rain early this morning in Burlington deposited just 0.05 inches of rain.  That's actually a tiny bit more than the trace Burlington had last weekend. 

Up here in St. Albans we had just a few raindrops around 6 a.m.today. Not even really enough to make the driveway look wet.

But don't worry, this will still be the nicest weather weekend Vermont has seen in ages. Even if conditions aren't perfect. 

First of all, it was such a relief on Friday to look over at the Green Mountains and they looked......green.

The main thing was you could actually see them, as the wildfire smoke that has been plaguing our area finally got flushed out by clean northerly winds yesterday. There was so little haze left that you could clearly see the lush greenness of our hills and forests in all their summer glory. 

FORECAST

The great news is we're getting the rain out of the way early and we can go on with the weekend. Hell, most people were still sleeping when it rained around here early today, so it doesn't matter. 

Overcast skies will slowly clear north to south today.  Blue sky was already starting to show up over St. Albans as of 7 a.m.

The north should have a pleasant, largely sunny day. It'll take longer for the clouds to clear in the south. If you're down around Brattleboro or places like that, it could take most or all of the day before you get some sun. 

It'll be cool for the season today, with highs only in the low 70s under the sun north and 60s under the clouds south. 

Tomorrow (Sunday) still looks pretty damn good, too. Not perfect, but good. It'll be partly sunny once again, with more clouds predominating in the south again. It'll stay cool with highs only in the low 70s.

There's a very slight chance of a shower Sunday.  But if you do get unlucky enough to see rain on Sunday it would probably amount to just a some sprinkles that last a few minutes.  

It still looks like it will get warmer and more humid as we go through the upcoming week. The ever-present risk of showers and storms will be there, mostly in the muggy air Wednesday and Thursday, 

Over this weekend, you might see just barely some hints of smoke from time to time in the atmosphere over Vermont this weekend, but it will be much, much better than it's been. Air quality here in Vermont will be fine.

For now, winds are taking much of Canadian wildfire smoke northwestward toward Alaska. 

AN ALASKAN EXCURSION

As an aside, things have gotten strange up in Alaska. On top of the smoke, we now have a baked Alaska situation, if you will. A first-ever heat advisory is in effect for tomorrow and Monday for a big stretch of central and eastern Alaska. Temperatures will be between 85 and 90 degrees, which isn't that bad by our standards but torrid for Alaska. 

Fairbanks, Alaska is forecasting high temperatures in the 80s daily through at least Friday. Normal highs there this time of year are in the upper 60s.

Meanwhile, much of far northern Alaska is under a flood watch. The snow pack up until now on Alaska's North Slope has been unusually deep and thick  and persistent for this late in the season. The big warm spell now moving into Alaska will rapidly melt this snow to cause flooding. There's still actually ice on the rivers up there, too, so ice jam flooding would also be a problem. 

So, complain all you want about Vermont's stretch of rainy weekends. At least we got rid of our ice jam and snow melt flood issues way back in mid-March. 

Forecasters Change Their Tune: Maybe A Decent Vermont Weather Weekend For Once?

High clouds coming from the south Friday morning
battle dry air coming from the north over St. Albans,
Vermont. Also notice there's much less wildfire haze
in the sky. It looks like the dry air will mostly but
not completely win this weekend, giving Vermont
the rare treat of a decent if not perfect weather weekend.

Could it be?

Meteorologists have backed way off on the gloomy, damp projections they had for this Saturday and their accompanying "meh" forecast for Sunday.  

Not they're calling for something that is now rare in Vermont. A fairly decent weather weekend. 

It won't be perfect, mind you. A little rain could easily show up on Saturday, at least in parts of the state will be rather cloudy on Saturday. And skies won't necessarily be crystal clear on Sunday.

Plus, it'll be noticeably on the cool side for mid-June.  So it won't be a spectacular beach weekend. But a comfortable one for other outdoor activities, which is nice. 

On top of that, you'll be able to breathe some relatively fresh air for a change. The wildfire smoke that's been giving us lots of haze and bad visibility and rather unhealthy air to breathe will be greatly diminished. If not almost gone entirely. 

The streak of 25 consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least in Burlington, might actually end Saturday and Sunday.

There is a 50/50 shot at some light rain Saturday morning in the Champlain Valley, which would keep the streak going.  

THE DETAILS:

Just as meteorologists have been saying for days now, a west-to-east, nearly stalled weather front should drape itself from the Midwest to the somewhere around the mid-Atlantic States this weekend. 

At first, it was thought moisture streaming up and over that front would give us a chilly, rainy Saturday. But that moisture, at least up here in Vermont, appears as if it will be sputtering. And that moisture will be battling dry air that will insist on coming south from Quebec over the weekend. 

The result will only be some light showers. And most of those light showers would come through tonight and the first half of Saturday.  

As has been the case recently, the weather up north will be better than conditions in southern Vermont. 

Whatever rain falls should be light everywhere. But it would range from maybe just a few raindrops up by the Canadian border to perhaps as much as 0.2 inches down around Bennington and Brattleboro.

The showers should tend to dry up everywhere in Vermont Saturday afternoon, but more so in the north. Clouds will linger south, but some sun should break through north. Which means it will actually be a bit warmer the further north you go.

Parts of southern Vermont should only make it into the low 60s for highs. Low elevations north of Route 2 could reach the low 70s.  Normal highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday

Sunday should have some sun, some clouds, and reach the low 70s, so again, not bad! There is a low chance of a scattered light shower here and there, but most of us will stay dry. 

Looking ahead to next week, it looks like day by day it will slowly turn warmer and more humid. Every day holds a chance of showers, but skies should be rain-free most of the time.  We'll have to keep a careful eye Wednesday and Thursday.

By then, it will be quite warm and quite humid, which could set the stage for some risk of hefty thunderstorms Wednesday and especially Thursday. We don't know whether that will happen just yet. That would depend upon the timing of weak weather fronts, sunshine and wind direction through the atmosphere around Thursday. 

But at the very least, expect to give your air conditioner a bit of a workout toward the middle and end of next week. 

 

Northern Vermont Actually Slightly Dry This Month As We Keep Complaining About Wet Weather

After getting plenty of rain in May, these peonies in
my St. Albans, Vermont gardens seemed to be 
enjoying the June sunshine this morning. 

We in Vermont have pretty much spent the entire spring and the first part of June complaining about the wet weather.  

It has been wet, of course.  The National Centers for Environmental Information says Vermont had its second wettest May on record, as one example.

But a funny thing happened as we got into June. 

Believe it or not,  northern Vermont has been a bit on the dry side so far this month, and that trend looks like it will continue for perhaps up the next six or seven days at least. Maybe more. 

Don't worry. Northern Vermont is definitely not going into drought. The ground is still pretty damp and river flows are certainly healthy. 

Plus, it's still raining in northern Vermont, just not as hard as it did in April and May. In fact, I heard a brief downpour on my roof in St. Albans in the hours before dawn today. Burlington picked up a tiny bit of rain after midnight, too. 

Through yesterday, Burlington has has 0.62 inches of rain so far this month, which is a little less than half of what would normally have fallen so far in June.  

Montpelier has only had about a half inch of rain so far in June, which is a full inch on the light side for this point in the month.  St. Johnsbury has also had less rain than average for June so far.

Southern Vermont still continues to slog through wet weather, though. Parts of southeast Vermont even suffered some flash flood damage last Friday. 

Even places near and south of Route 4 that had no flooding have been pretty wet in June. Bennington has had 2.44 inches of rain so far this month, agains an average of 1.39 inches through June 11. 

Union Village Dam in Thetford, a little north of White River Junction, has had 3.11 inches so far in June, against an average of about an inch and half. (I'm not counting the 1.75 inches of rain listed on June 1 in Thetford, as that rain actually fell on May 31. The measurement was just taken on June 1 when somebody checked the rain gauge there).

OUTLOOK

The trend toward a wetter south will continue this weekend, to an extent.

Meteorologists have backed off on how much rain Vermont will see this weekend. Still, the south looks like it will be a little wetter than the north. The bottom half of Vermont probably will get a quarter to a half inch of rain through Sunday, while the top half is scheduled to see less than a quarter inch.

All this doesn't tell us how the month will ultimately end up. Rainfall is incredibly variable in the summer, since most of it comes from hit or miss showers and thunderstorms. 

Also, things could even out so that the south might get drier and the north could get wetter. Who knows?

After this weekend, the next shot of rain come Wednesday. Early guesses are that next week's rains will focus a little more on the north than the south, but of course, we can't be sure about that yet.  

Long range forecasts going to about the end of the month slightly lean toward a somewhat wetter than average second half of June in Vermont. But as we all know, we need to take weather forecasts more than five days out or so with a Mount Mansfield-sized grain of salt. 

Beekmantown, NY Tornado Confirmed, Now, Mostly Nice Rest Of Week Leads To, Surprise! Saturday Rain

The same storm that produced a brief tornado in 
Beekmantown, New York, Tuesday passed overhead
in St. Albans, Vermont.  When it got here, it was
 a garden-variety thundershower with a brief downpour
and top wind gusts of around 25 mph. That sort of
funnel-ish shaped cloud you see wasn't a funnel at
all. Just a regular old rain cloud. The cloud you 
see in the photo was about as dangerous as
a fair weather cumulus on a sunny day. 

 The National Weather Service office in South Burlington confirmed last night that it was indeed a tornado in Beekmantown, New York Tuesday afternoon.  

It was a small one, but it was a tornado.  It was rated an EF-0, the lowest on a five-point scale. And it was brief. 

The Beekmantown tornado had top winds of 65 to 75 mph; was 100 yards wide and only traveled along the ground a half mile before dissipating. It was on the ground for a whole two minutes. 

It damaged a roof, knocked over some trees and blew objects like a trampoline around.

It was a very isolated incident, too. There were no other reports of severe thunderstorm damage anywhere else in northern New York or Vermont.  It was  weird and unexpected, too, as Tuesday's  overall weather set up did not really favor severe storms, never mind tornadoes.

This contrasts with last June 23, when we had what was for a Vermont a big time set up for a tornado or two.  We ended up having supercells, tornado warnings, wind damage and flash flooding on June 23, 2024, but no actual tornadoes. Though there was one in neighboring New Hampshire. 

We're done with severe storms for awhile, and it's on to typically mildly variable June weather. In fact the day to day changes in the weather over the next few days will be a little quicker and noticeable than usual for this time of year. 

TODAY

Sunshine this morning will mix with some clouds this afternoon. It'll be on the breezy side, and warm-ish, with highs in the 70s to around 80.  You'll notice some wildfire smoke around once again, but it shouldn't be as thick and awful as it was this past weekend. 

A few light showers might blow through northern areas tonight as a weak but windy for this time of year disturbance races through. It might not be a great evening and night to take a small boat or kayak onto the broad Lake Champlain.

THURSDAY

Another nice one! A little cooler than today, and continued a bit breezy.  You might see the smoke begin to diminish, too, The air flow will be starting to come down straight from the north. Much of the air we'll breathe late this week will originate in Quebec, where so far this summer there has not been many wildfires. 

The air had earlier been coming from the northwest, from Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where intense fires spewed a lot of smoke. Actually those fires have calmed down, at least for a little while. More intense fires have erupted in northern Alberta, northeast British Columbia and parts of the Northwest Territories of Canada,

That smoke could eventually get here later this month if the wind patterns favor it. But those fires are further away than the more recent ones. So maybe upcoming smoky days won't be as bad? Don't count on it, but we can always hope for something.

FRIDAY

Cool for the season. Highs will only make it to within a few degrees either side of 70 degrees. We'll have some increasing clouds, too. But the air looks like it will be pretty clean.

SATURDAY

Oh yes. Saturday. The requirement we have rain on Saturday looks like it will hold after all. There is still a chance that far northern areas right near the Canadian border might escape the rain, but don't count on it.

It appears that once again, the rain will get heavier and heavier the further south you go in Vermont. Since we'll be on the north side of a weather front, and under clouds and likely rain, it'll be quite a cool one for this time of  year. That's on top of the damp weather.

Early hints suggest highs Saturday will only be in the 60 to 65 degree range. Normal highs in mid-June are in the mid-70s. 

Since Saturday is still three days away, there's still the chance the forecast could shift.  If we get extremely lucky, that weather front might set up a little further south, sparing at least some of us some rain. But don't count on it. 

BEYOND SATURDAY

There is some hope, but no guarantees that Sunday will be brighter, but still on the cool side. There are some hints Vermont will take another gradual turn toward warmer, more summery, more humid weather as we go through next week. We shall see! 

BREAKING: Likely Brief Tornado North Of Plattsburgh, NY This Afternoon In Otherwise Benign Line Of Storms

WCAX-TV meteorologist Jess Langlois shared this
radar image of today's storm in Beekmantown, 
New York. The bright shades of green and red
centered around Beekmantown shows strong winds
blowing in opposite directions in close proximity.
That is a sign of a tornado. 

A line of showers and thunderstorms - as expected - moved out of New York state into the Champlain Valley of Vermont  mid and late afternoon today. 

None of the storms appeared to be all that strong, and there were no warnings of severe thunderstorms.

Except:

It appears one of the storms along the line briefly got strong and started spinning.  It also appears to have touched off a brief tornado around Beekmantown, New York, about six miles north of Plattsburgh.  

According to WPTZ-TV meteorologist Tyler Jankowski,  noticeable rotation popped up around 3:38 pm along Route 22 near O'Neil Road and Duquette Road in Beekmantown.  Radar showed what is known as a couplet, which is winds blowing in opposite directions of each other in close proximity to each other. 

Meteorologist Jess Langlois of WCAX-TV also showed radar images, clearly showing a "couplet" on radar at that time 

That's a sign of a possible tornado. Radar also briefly indicate debris in the air. WPTZ also showed a video taken by Suzanne Drollette of what appears to be a weak tornado spinning behind some trees in Beekmantown, 

Video from WPTZ showed large sections of a roof blown off of what appears to be a house. Several trees and branches were blown down. 

The circulation seen on radar quickly dissipated and the storm continued on across Lake Champlain into Franklin County, Vermont. Once past Beekmantown, the storm looked like nothing special on radar. No obvious need for any severe storm warnings or alerts. 

That storm from Beekmantown eventually passed directly over my house in St. Albans, Vermont at around 4:45 p.m.. All I had was a couple flashes of lightning, some rumbles of thunder, a relatively brief downpour and a top wind gust at maybe 25 mph.  I didn't see any unusual looking clouds. Just a garden variety thundershower. 

The line of showers and thunderstorms continued into central Vermont by 6 p.m. No severe weather was associated with it, and it doesn't look like there will be any.

National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington were in Beekmantown as of 5:30 p.m. today to determine whether the damage they find there was indeed caused by a tornado.   Those meteorologist plan to release the results of their survey later tonight or tomorrow morning, 

By the way, this is not one of those cases in which a lack of staffing because of NOAA cutbacks caused National Weather Service meteorologists to miss it as it developed. It spun up so fast, and dissipated just as fast. If you blinked, you missed it. 

Also, the atmosphere did not appear to be primed to produce a tornado.  At worst, it seemed we were at risk of an isolated case or two of gusty straight line winds. 

A Few Vermont Thunderstorms Might Get A Bit Strong This Afternoon, Smoke Might Get In Your Eyes Again By Tomorrow

UPDATE 1 PM

These peonies in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens 
survived the weekend smoke and were getting a nice
drink of water this morning. This patch of peonies
was divided from some my grandmother planted
in West Rutland, Vermont way back in the early 1940s.

Unlike what I said this morning, Ii looks like there is now a chance a few thunderstorms in Vermont today could end up being strong to severe, But if we get anything with strong gusty winds, they will be few and far between.

Most of us will just get perhaps somewhat gusty storms with brief downpours, but nothing extreme.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has extended a marginal risk of storms into southern and central Vermont.

I actually think a strong storm could erupt anywhere in Vermont, But again those will be pretty isolated.

A broken line of thunderstorms had formed over central New York and were heading east toward Vermont.

The areas of rain in Vermont were not departing as fast as some forecasts suggested. If that trend continues, we might lose some of the instability that would keep the storms firing. Still a little sunshine in the gap between the rain in Vermont and the storms in New York might be just enough to keep thunderstorms rambunctious once they arrive in the Green Mountain State by mid-afternoon.

Meanwhile, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is maintaining a marginal risk of flash flooding today in Vermont.

Normally, the quick hitting downpours expected in some areas today would not cause trouble, But the soils are so soggy, especially in southern Vermont, that it takes less of a downpour than usual to create isolated trouble spots with flash flooding. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

The Vermont winds have shifted, the rains came and the air got cleaner as a result.

For now.  

South winds on Monday and overnight have pushed the smoke back north out of our hair. 

Two batches of showers, one coming through this morning, the other this afternoon, are also helping to freshen up i the air.  

Even better, today's rains look pretty benign.  Nothing scary out of the skies today.

There won't be enough rain for many additional flooding, like we had last Friday in southern Vermont. Though a few thunderstorms could be in the mix this afternoon, at this point it doesn't look like any of those will be severe,

This first batch of rain this morning is the remnants of what was some rough weather in Pennsylvania and western New York on Monday. Flash flooding and wind damage were scattered through that region. a tornado severely damaged some homes in Great Valley, New York, about 50 miles south of Buffalo.

By the time this mess reached Vermont as of 6:30 arm, today, there was no longer even any lightning with this batch of rain.   The worst we'll see out of this is maybe a brief downpour or two over the course of the morning, 

We'll probably see a brief break in the action around noon or early afternoon before a new line of showers and storms begins to enter northwestern Vermont toward  mid-afternoon. This will be with an actual cold front.

If there's an interval of sunshine after the first batch of showers goes through, that could power up the atmosphere enough to make some of the afternoon storms a little bit strong. 

Again, if that happens, it'll be nothing severe. In the worst cases, winds could get a little gusty but not extreme. Downpours would hit, then go away way before they have enough time to flood your friendly local brook or creek. 

This line of showers and storms will continue on into eastern Vermont while weakening somewhat this evening

SMOKY WEDNESDAY?

This will be one those so-called "cold fronts"  you often see in June and July in which the temperatures after they go through is a little warmer than the air ahead of the front. As you'd expect, the opposite is usually true. 

The high sun angle controls temperatures this time of  year much more than it would in the winter. Again, that makes sense.

Clouds today will  hold down temperatures, while sun that comes out behind the front will boost those readings. I guess you can call these weak summer "cold fronts" humidity fronts, since they do reduce humidity levels, but not necessarily the temperatures,

Bottom line, sunshine tomorrow could get us up to near or a little above 80 degrees in a few spots.

But that sunlight -  once again - will be slightly dimmed and its light turned a copper color by that smoke from Canadian forest fires. After all, the wind will be coming from the west and northwest, which would push the smoke in our direction.

It'll be quite a bit more breezy out there tomorrow than it was over the weekend. I'm thinking, or at least hoping, those breezes will mix the air more than that calm weekend air did. If that happens, that would keep at least some of the smoke higher up in the atmosphere, instead of choking us as light winds allows the smoke to settle into our valleys.   

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

It's hard to tell this far in advance how much smoke would be left later in the week. So we'll keep an eye on it. 

We are going to get into a cool spell, with highs by Friday and the weekend only in the 60s to low 70s.  Chilly high pressure in Quebec will be feeding that cool air our way.

There's a chance - just a chance - that the French-Canadian high pressure could be our friend this weekend. A stalled front dividing very humid air to the south and fresher, if sometimes smoky air to the north will set up west to east for several days starting Friday and perhaps last to next Tuesday or so.

Unfortunately, a lot of computer models as of this morning tell us that front would  get close enough to us Saturday to blossom out some rain for the umpteenth weekend in a row, especially in southern Vermont, 

But there is some hope that that high pressure in Canada might have enough oomph to suppress that rain just a little bit to our south. It's too soon to start rejoicing about that, as this drier weekend scenario is iffy as hell.  

 

Florida Meteorologist/Hurricane Expert Now Fears Storm Prediction Accuracy Gone With NOAA Cuts

Florida meteorologists John Morales, one of the nation's
top hurricane forecasters, worried on air that NOAA
cutbacks would mean critical hurricane forecasts 
would be less accurate this year, which in turn
would endanger lives

In the first couple of days of September, 2019, Category 5 Hurricane Dorian crawled through the Bahamas, causing extreme damage. 

Dorian seemed headed straight for Florida, and residents there began to panic. 

Florida meteorologist John Morales, and one of the nation's top hurricane experts, told his audience to relax. 

Morales reassured viewers that Dorian would make a sharp right turn just before reaching Florida, sparing the state from great harm. 

For non-meteorologists, a hurricane making such a sharp, sudden turn didn't sound plausible. But Morales was confident. 

And he was right. That sharp turn came on the afternoon of September 3, and Florida was more or less safe.

I'm bringing this up now because Morales was on the air as usual recently at NBC 6 in South Florida, one day earlier this month. This time, he his audience he no longer has the confidence that he could forecast a hurricane so precisely and so correctly like he did with Dorian

Morales' skill set is as good as ever. NOAA, which is responsible for providing the data for meteorologists like Morales, is not as good as ever. 

".... I am here to tell you that I am not sure that I can do that this year because of the cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general," Morales said on a June 9 broadcast on NBC 6 South Florida. 

The massive cuts the Trump administration has made to NOAA has led to staffing shortages at National Weather Service offices across the nation, including those in central and southern Florida. Fewer weather balloons are being launched to study the details of what the atmosphere is doing and how that atmosphere will steer storms, and how the strength of those storms change. 

Because of these developments, less data is being collected, "What we're starting to see is that the quality of the forecast is becoming degraded," Morales said. 

There's also a chance that we'll have fewer hurricane hunter flights into hurricanes. Those flights collect detailed data that really help forecasters pin down exactly where a hurricane will come ashore and how strong it will be once it gets there. 

"We may be flying blind, and we may not know exactly how strong a hurricane is before it reaches the coastline," Morales said.

He concluded by telling viewers to call their representatives and tell them these cost must be stopped.

TRUMP'S PEOPLE RESPOND, WHILE MUSK FADES

Unfortunately, I keep getting less and less trustful about the truthfulness of anything a federal spokesperson says under the Trump regime, but here goes:

People magazine, reaching out to NOAA, said a spokesperson said the National Hurricane Center "has a sufficient number of forecasters to fill mission-critical operational shifts during the 2025 hurricane season."  The spokesperson said the hurricane center "remains dedicated" to providing timely weather forecasts and warnings."

We'll see about that. 

Public pressure to provide enough staff to allow NOAA/National Weather Service to perform its mission to protect the public might actually be having a little bit of positive effect on the Trump administration.

Especially with Elon Musk pretty much out of the picture for now. 

Musk was exceptionally keen on getting rid of practically everyone working for the federal government including those in NOAA, To his mind, the only person that needs to be protected from scary weather is himself.  Screw everyone else. He is, after the all, the ultimate Main Character Syndrome poster boy.

Now, Musk's bromance with Donald Trump seems to be over.  (Bill Maher, in the spirt of "Brajalina" or "Bennifer"  called the Musk/Trump bromance "Elump" which is kinda fun).

With Musk out of the way for now and public pressure growing to keep the Nation Weather Service functioning,   there is a tiny bit of appetite for hiring back some of the lost staff at NOAA,  Not enough to solve its problems, but maybe ease them a tiny bit. 

IMPROVING NOAA STAFFING

NOAA says they will reshuffle staff to areas where staff shortages are especially acute. Basically encouraging remaining staff to move to offices that are really short on workers, Which doesn't really solve the overall problem of not enough resources, but I suppose it's a tiny start.

Even better news came a little over a week ago, which is a nice symptom of Musk's departure:  

The National Weather Service lost more than 560 employees to layoff and early retirement incentives., Now, the NWS has managed to get permission to hire about 125 new meteorologists, technicians and specialists for forecast offices around the nation, CNN reported.

This might help with National Weather Service offices that can't be staffed overnight during periods of non-threatening weather. Or even better, keep enough staff to meteorologists can adequately keep their eyes on the ball when there is dangerous weather. 

The new hires still won't be enough to overcome the effects of the bigger staff losses. I, like Morales, am not comfortable with the lack of NOAA staffing, even if those 125 replacement people come on board. I still think weather forecast quality and accuracy is degraded, despite the heroic efforts of remaining meteorologists with NWS. 

SENSIBLE LEGISLATION

I was intrigued with a bill recently introduced by U.S. Senators Jerry Moran, (R-Kansas) and Gary Peters (D-Michigan) that would exempt National Weather Service employees from any executive order or memorandum imposing a hiring freeze,

It would essentially designate NWS employees as public safety officials, sort of like FBI agents or Border Patrol officers. 

Makes sense, since National Weather Service meteorologists' main job is public safety, right?  I also find it interesting that this is a bipartisan bill coming out in these bifurcated times. 

I have no idea whether this bill will go anywhere, but it's another sign the Trump administration is out of step with the majority of Americans who agree with Morales and want to continue receiving the best possible information when deadly storms threaten. 

I imagine the Trump administration isn't a fan of this good idea for Moran and Peters, so we'll see.

Still, under the increasingly autocratic Trump, it's getting riskier to criticize the prez and/or his  administration. Especially if you're a widely watched public figure like Morales. The Trump people have a habit of unleashing their MAGA goons on them by launching social media attacks, doxxing them, even threatening them with arrest. 

Or trying to demand the corporations that employ these outspoken truth tellers "or else."

After the broadcast, The Guardian asked Morales if "he was worried about retaliation from an administration that's south to defund and disparage scientists. Morales said 'No,  not at all. Science is science."