Vermont weather geek's hodgepodge of weather and climate news and opinion. Often Vermont focused, but taking a national and global approach, with sometimes an appropriate dash of fun, outrage, cynicism and compassion.
Satellite view this afternoon that is menacing California with the threat of heavy rains and floods Southern California in particular will see very heavy rain for so early in its wet season Debris flows near the sites of recent wildfires are the biggest threat.
It's not just the eastern United States having an early start to winter.
Storms coming off the Pacific Ocean this week are giving California an early start to their annual winter wet season.
The storms over the next few days are raising fears of urban flooding, mudslides and debris flows. Especially near the sites of large wildfires in recent years.
The fun started today. Flood advisories were up in San Francisco along with coastal and slightly inland areas north to Fort Bragg and south all the way down to Santa Cruz.
The heaviest rain was moving out of coastal northern California late this afternoon, so some, but mot all of those advisories have been lifted.
However, inland, near Sacramento and the rest of the Central Valley, flood advisories were still in effect late this afternoon.
The heavy rain was moving inland to the Sierra Nevada foothills, whereflood watchesare in effect.
Areas of northern California might see two to as much as six inches of rain through tonight. Higher up in the Sierra Nevada mountains, it's obviously colder, so winter storm warnings are up for parts of the Sierra. Some areas could get as much as a foot of snow.
That's not huge by Sierra Nevada standards, but it's pretty good for this early in the season.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
The real show starts later tonight and tomorrow and continues all week in southern California.
A huge ridge of high pressure is parked over the middle of the U.S. That will make a storm the storm that is trying to move eastward to affects southern California to do so only at a snail's pace. That means sunny L.A. and the rest of southern California are going to feel more like Seattle.
Which isn't a good thing especially for the fire-scared hillsides of California.
Los Angeles County has issued evacuation warningsfor thousands of people who live near areas burned in recent wildfires. That includes last January's massive Palisades and Eaton fires. The warning is in effect from this evening through late morning Sunday.
An evacuation warning means people should be ready to evacuate at a drop of a hat. They should spend today gathering documents, medications, important records, and supplies for a possible mandatory evacuation, and have arrangements made for children and pets.
People who move slowly, like the elderly and disabled, should consider getting out of Dodge today before the rain really starts to fall.
This all proves that a wildfire disaster isn't over after the last flames are extinguished. There's the risk of further damage - maybe extensive - months or years after the fire. I'll hate to see people whose homes survived the fire only to be wrecked by flash flooding and debris flows. We'll see how that goes.
The National Weather Service this afternoon hoisted flood watchesfor all of southern California except for the extreme southeast corner. Most of the watches go into effect late Friday night and continue through Saturday night.
Some forecasts predict the storms could dump up to seven inches of rain on the mountains north and east of L.A. For lower elevations, two to four inches of rain could fall, but those forecasts could change pretty radically up or down over the next day or two.
Most of the rain would come in two bursts, one tonight and part of tomorrow, the other focused on Saturday.
At least the early onset of rainfall in southern California is tamping down the risk of more huge early winter firestorms like the region had last year. A very early season southern California rainstorm in mid-October helped.
October ended with 0.8 inches of rain in L.A., which is above the normal of a half inch.
Normal rainfall in Los Angeles in November is about 0.8 inches. It hasn't rained there yet this month, but this storm could really get the rainy season off to a good start. Total rainfall tonight through Sunday could reach two to as much as four inches in the Lost Angeles Basin.
The bulk of southern California's rain comes in December through the first part of March. It's obviously too early to know whether this rainy pattern will continue through the winter.
If not, and December and January turn dry, the risk of wildfires could return. In Southern California, it always seems likes it's either too little or too much rain.
Climate attribution science is getting more and more sophisticated. This might make it increasingly possible for local governments to recoup from climate disasters, like this 2024 Vermont flood might have been.
Climate attribution studies - the art and science of determining to what extent weather extremes are tied to climate change - are getting so good that they're starting to delve into how much individual corporations are responsible for given disasters.
This advanced work on assigning individual corporations' role in climate disasters is known as end-to-end attribution.
For now, the focus is on heat waves, as the science doesn't appear to be quite there in assigning blame for other disasters, like floods, wildfires and hurricanes. But that's coming.
"A new study by climate researchers in Europe and the U.S. and published in the journal Nature has taken this analysis further, by lining the deadliest type of disaster - heat waves - directly to major fossil fuel companies and their products.
The study looked at major heat waves that happened between 2000 and 2023 and the role of 'carbon majors.' These include state-owned companies (such as Gazprom in Russia or Saudi Armco, investor-owned private companies (Shell, BP, ExxonMoil or even Canadian companies such as Suncor and Census) and nation-states that produce fossil fuels such as coal (India, the former Soviet Union)."
The study indicated that the median intensity of heat waves globally between 2010 and 2019 was about 1.68 degrees Celsius hotter, and 0.47 Celsius of that was due to just 14 of the largest carbon producers.
"The study goes into granular detail, with data for each one of the 180 carbon majors and their specific contribution to each of the 213 heat waves studied. The detail even shows the impact of smaller companies - for example, the smallest carbon major by emissions, a Russian coal company, made 16 heat waves more than 10,000 times likely - meaning the heat waves would have been virtually impossible without the emissions of that carbon major."
The study drew on previous research detailing the lifetime carbon emissions of these carbon majors, and other studies that show how carbon emissions make heat waves worse. They then connected those two strands to estimate how the emissions of a specific carbon major impacted the severity and likelihood of a particular heat wave.
The research doesn't assign a quantity or dollar amount of heat wave damage caused by each corporation. Besides, heat waves usually don't cause much damage to buildings and infrastructure, at least compared to other disasters.
But heat waves kill a lot of people, and how do you put a price tag on that?
Then there are practical matters. Some regions are more prepared for heat waves than others. An intense heat wave might not be as bad in, say Oklahoma, because practically everyone there has air conditioning. Air conditioning, meanwhile, is much more rare in western and northern Europe, where heat waves in recent decades have been taking an especially big toll.
Still, this attribution science regarding climate damage caused by specific firms is probably of great interest to policymakers.
A great example is here in Vermont.
Vermont and New York have enacted "climate superfund" laws, which would force corporations that produce large amounts of carbon dioxide to pay a share of what climate change has cost Vermont, based on how much the company contributed to global emissions during the same period.
Lawmakers in Vermont were prodded into enacted this legislation in part by a series of devastating floodsin the state.
Still, if the New York and Vermont superfund laws survive the legal challenges, or we get a more climate friendly administration in the future, the research we're talking about would definitely interest people in both states. And any other jurisdiction that wants to establish similar laws.
Beyond the United States, the International Court of Justiceissued a July advisory opinion that said countries dealing with climate disasters could seek reparations from countries emitting the most carbon.
Some legal experts said the International Court of Justice, which is under the United Nations, could spur similar moves around the world in local courts.
Any science that would more accurately assign responsibility for climate-related disasters and expenses might favor all these laws and lawsuits.
End-to-end attribution can boost a claimant's case,notes the Conversation. Such attribution can meet what is known as the "but for" test, which means that but for a specific company's emissions, climate related damages would not have happened.
"One is called proportional liability, and it attempts to quantify the extent to which a company's emissions contribute d to increased risk or the severity of damage. This flexibility strengthens the method's applicability across different legal systems."
Meanwhile, climate attribution science will almost definitely continue to improve. That science is going to be a force that a lot of people in power are going to need to contend with.
Also, says the Conservationist, "The end-to-end attribution method enables claimants to connect global warming to local disasters, such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest 'heat dome'. This is crucial, as climate litigation focused on single, high-impact events is usually more successful."
Climate attribution science is getting more and more sophisticated. This will probably change the climate legal landscape, even if the Trump administration is trying to postpone that day.
This week's U.S. Drought Monitor released this morning, shows improvement in Vermont. The Champlain Valley is no longer in drought, just "abnormally dry." The area of extreme drought (red) has decreased some in eastern Vermont.
Vermont continues to slowly dig its way out of a severe, months-long drought, but we still need several more rainy (or snowy) months to escape the clutches of this terrible dry spell.
The best news concerned the Champlain Valley, which isno longer in droughtas of this week. Depending on where you are in the valley, it's the first time since either August 21 or 28 that drought conditions no longer exist in that part of the northwest Vermont
The Champlain Valley is still regarded asabnormally dry, which means if there's any shift to dry weather again, drought could resume.
The improvement in the Champlain Valley can also be seen in theLake Champlain level. On Tuesday (November 11) , the lake level went above 94 feet for the first time since August 14.
That's still about six inches below normal for this time of year. But it's better than back on October 20, when the lake was 1.3 feet or so below normal.
I've also noticed Vermont rivers are still on the low side, but stream flows have improved some from those sad little trickles we saw back in September and October.
DROUGHT CONTINUES ELSEWHERE
The rest ofVermont is still in drought, according to this morning's Drought Monitor, but there are signs of improvement elsewhere in the Green Mountain State, too.
The area of extreme drought in the eastern and northern part of the state is a little smaller than last week. Extreme drought now covers 25 percent of the state, compared to 41 percent last week.
The Green Mountain range, and much of Addison County improved from severe drought last week to moderate drought as of this morning. Also, most of Windham County in far southeastern Vermont was in severe drought last week, but improved to moderate drought today.
The rest of theNortheast generally improved from last week too. Areas of extreme and severe drought shrank a little in New Hampshire.
Northern Maine got a little drier but the rest of the state saw some improvement. The percentage of Maine in severe drought declined for the first time since mid-September.
New York saw a little improvement in drought conditions, too.
OUTLOOK
Vermont got lucky in the past week because storms brought heavier precipitation than forecast. That trend of unexpectedly heavy rain and snow can't continue forever, but we do want it to.
Over the next week, we're not expecting boatloads of rain, snow and ice, but some precipitation is due. Which leads me to believe next week's drought monitor should, I hope see no reversals.
Maybe it'll stay about the same as it is this week, unless the storm due Saturday night and early Sunday really surprises forecasters with a lot of rain, ice and snow.
For now, a quarter to a little over a half inch of rain and melted snow and ice is expected in Vermont over the next seven days. Somewhat more than that is forecast in the northern and central Green Mountains
That's not a spectacular amount of precipitation but it's now awful either.
Long range forecaststaking us to near the end of November indicate Vermont would see near normal, or perhaps slightly above normal precipitation.
The snow in my St. Albans, Vermont yard is littered with leaves that fell from trees after the bulk of this weeks' snowstorm ended. Of course it's impossible to clean these up until after the snow melts If it melts before winter truly sets in.
When I woke up this morning, there was roughly half as much snow on the ground as there was yesterday morning here in St. Albans, Vermont.
I'd guess there's four, five, maybe six inches still left, depending on where you measure it.
Well, that's progress, I suppose.
It's mostly melting from below, due to a still warm ground. It did get a little above freezing for most of the day Wednesday, but it also snowed lightly all day, too.
On Wednesday, warmer places like Burlington had a few raindrops mix in. Nobody in Vermont, except maybe some higher mountain peaks, had much snow accumulation Wednesday. Precipitation was just not heavy enough.
On the negative side, Interstate 89 was gummed up for the third evening in a row. This time it looked like it was more related a serious crash and not icy roads. The pavement was just wet.
Temperatures in most of Vermont stayed near or just above freezing overnight last night. There was still water dripping from the snow on my roof early this morning. But the snow is not disappearing fast. It's just not warm enough.
Outdoor workers in areas of Vermont slammed by snow this week are really out of luck. Landscapers are supposed to be cleaning up leaves. Roofers are supposed to be getting the last jobs of the season done. I'm sure there's road and driveway projects that are stalled, too.
Instead,as WPTZ reports, these businesses and workers are waiting, perhaps in vain, for better weather.
I confess I'm one of the victims. I do fall garden cleanup for people, and I still had a small number of things to complete. And I wasn't even close to buttoning down my own property for the winter.
Everybody, including me, got used to the mild Novembers of recent years, I guess.
FORECAST
Looking ahead, though, Vermont will still be mired in premature winter for awhile yet.
More snow showers will roam the state today, but they probably won't be as widespread as they were yesterday. The Green Mountains will be the big "winners' today with a few more inches of snow.
Northern Vermont valleys away from the immediate shores of Lake Champlain can expect another dusting to maybe two inches of new snow today and especially tonight, when temperatures go back below freezing.
It'll stay cold Friday and Saturday, too, but snow showers will continue to diminish. I don't think places deep in snow will entirely get rid of it by the weekend, as daytime temperatures will only make it into the 30s to around 40, and nights will get below freezing.
Then there's a new storm due Saturday night and Sunday. It still looks like that one will bring a wave of freezing rain and sleet over us. Mostly along and east of the Green Mountains, but even western Vermont would be under the gun.
The freezing rain does not look like it will be enough to cause tree and power line damage, but it would be more than enough to make driving dangerous once again on Vermont highways.
By Sunday afternoon, it will be back to the snow showers. Those will continue into early next week, replacing some of the snow that might melt when ice briefly turns to rain early Sunday.
There are signs it could warm up a little - not a lot - later next week. No guarantees, but there's still a chance some autumn yard and garden work can be completed before winter really gets there.
Photo of Northern Lights peeking through the clouds over Shelburne, Vermont posted to Facebook by Amanda Delude
A big display of northern lights lit up the skies across much of the U.S. last night as a big geomagnetic storm targeted Earth.
Tonight might bring another big display.
The northern lights were seen as far south as Florida, where residents must have felt like they were transported to the Arctic, where northern lights are very common.
Florida was also experiencing record cold temperatures early this week, too.
Social media was filled with color images of the sky over locations from Minnesota to Colorado to Texas to Alabama.
Here in Vermont, our usual overcast skies prevented much of a northern lights view in many areas But the aurora was so spectacular you could sort of see it through the clouds. The overcast north of my St. Albans, house definitely had a green cast.
Near Lake Champlain and in parts of southern Vermont, there were breaks in the clouds that offered glimpses of the show. Facebook had some great photos out of Weathersfield and Royalton, for example.
Photographer Adam Silverman, probably the most enthusiastic and best northern lights photographer in Vermont, captured some great images from Malletts Bay, along Lake Champlain in Colchester.
Silverman, ever the fan of nature and skies, wrote: "The sky absolutely burned and glowed with amazing aurora colors, clearly visible to the naked eye. Even the clouds let through enough light to take on surreal hues as they zipped overhead in the stiff, cold breeze."
If you missed any of it last night, people across the northern hemisphere, even at points well south, have another shot at a spectacular show tonight.
Vermont State Police posted this photo of the northern lights to Facebook from their Westminster, Vermont barracks.
"...forecasters at the Space Weather Prediction Center have said the geomagnetic storm could intensity as the 'final and most energetic CME' meaning coronal mass ejection, is yet to arrive and could reach Earth on Wednesday afternoon.
A CME is an eruption of massive clouds of protons, electrons, and magnetic fields from the Sun's outer atmosphere at very high speeds."
Here in Vermont, unfortunately, it's another very cloudy forecast for tonight. The National Weather Service in Burlington predicts about a 96 percent cloud cover for most of the night, which is about as overcast as you can get. The cloud cover declines to 88 percent after midnight, which is still pretty bleak.
Unlike last night, when we had a break in the snowfall, it will very likely be snowing at least lightly overnight across most of northern Vermont.
Note that the valleys of southern Vermont might have a few more breaks in the clouds than in the north.
A crash on Route 100 near the Waterbury/Stowe line blocked the road for awhile. Icy conditions made it difficult to clear the wreck. Route 15 near Essex, Route 104 around Fairfax and East Georgia, Interstate 89 in Franklin County were among the many trouble spots Tuesday.
If you were out on the roads, I'm sure you encountered your own delays and roadway ice rinks.
HOW IT HAPPENED
My driveway actually gave me clues as to what happened with Tuesday's mess of a drive time.
I shoveled the wet, heavy snow off my paved driveway in the morning. The ground was warm, so the driveway stayed wet.
Then it snowed again.
Since the ground was still warm the new snow formed a half-melted slush atop the pavement.
My truck tires compacted the slush with just one trip down the driveway. So imagine what happened to that slushy layer under a daytime of traffic on the highways.
The ground was so warm it seemed to create a thin layer of above freezing temperatures just above the pavement, even though the air temperature was around 30 degrees.
In the afternoon, the wind picked up dramatically, probably sweeping away that very thin layer of "warmer" hovering just above the blacktop. The compacted slush then froze, creating the dangerous driving conditions we saw in many areas in central and northern Vermont.
The bout of gusty, freezing winds hit just before the afternoon rush hour. Go figure.
And yes, northwestern Vermont in particular is having a snowy November to be sure.
Another 2.8 inches of snow Tuesday fell atop the 8.6 inches we had in St. Albans Monday for an impressive storm total of 11.4 inches. Burlington so far this month - as of midnight last night, anyway - has had 6.4 inches of snow, more than the 5.7 inches that is normal for the entire month of November.
FORECAST
There's no rest for the weary, as winter weather will continue all week with frequent bouts of light snow, with a little valley rain.
More snow is in the forecast between now and Friday in Vermont and New York. Not much in the valleys, but the central and northern Green Mountains can expect another six or more inches.
We should see very little snow in the immediate Champlain Valley right near the lake. And probably no snow or just a dusting in the Connecticut River Valley south of White River Junction this week.
Other valleys in central and northern Vermont will see anywhere from one to as much as five inches of new snow spread out between today and Friday morning.
The northern and central Green Mountains, especially near the summits, will probably see 6 to 12 inches in that period.
That will be followed by a possibly icy storm toward Saturday night and Sunday
Here are the details:
Today
As I write this at 7:30 a.m, it's snowing once again here in St. Albans. Just what we need, right? I'm sure there's slick areas on the roads again. The snow isn't coming down hard, but it's enough to cause trouble.
In the valleys, it'll get a little above freezing this afternoon, so that should help. The snow and rain showers might tend to thin out a bit this afternoon too. Snow accumulations today should be less than an inch, with a little more in the mountains.
As we saw yesterday, it doesn't take much snow to create havoc.
Cold air coming in will probably change any rain back to snow and re-create ice on many roads tonight. The chillier air looks like it will come in later than it did Monday evening, so things might not be so bad late this afternoon on the roads.
Thursday
Tomorrow morning's commute might be hazardous again, as another burst of snow comes through. Like today, it won't be much, with an inch or less in most of the valleys. But the mountains will probably pick up several inches
It'll still be snowing, at least lightly in many locations all day Thursday and into Thursday night. Once again, there might be a few raindrops in the valleys as temperatures get a little above freezing.
There should be a little more snow and falling temperatures Thursday evening. You know what that means.
Weekend
We'll get a break from the constant snow and cold rain showers Friday afternoon through Saturday, though it will stay cold. But there's yet more trouble on the way.
A new storm diving down at us from Lake Superior is threatening us with freezing rain later Saturday night into Sunday.
The storm is still days away, so the particulars on this are sketchy. The best chance of freezing rain looks like it will be east of the Green Mountains, but stay tuned on that.
Behind that storm will be another bout of snow and snow showers, once again focusing on the central and northern Green Mountains. It's quite a head start for the soon to start ski season.
Other ski resorts in Vermont are planning their seasonal grand openings around Thanksgiving weekend. That holiday falls on the 27th this year.
In the valleys, those of you who are stuck under a mid-winter type deep snow cover in northwest Vermont will have to live with it for awhile. I don't see any real warmup for at least a week from now.
"It is with heavy heart that we share the end of what has not only been an annual tradition in millions of homes and hearths for hundreds of years, but also a way of life, an inspiration for many who realize the wisdom of generations past is the key to the generations of the future," said Editor Sandi Duncan.
"Though the Almanac will no longer be available in print or online, its spirit will live on in the values it championed: simplicity sustainability and connection to nature," the message on the publication's website said.
The Farmers' Almanac was started in 1818 by David Young, a 37-year-old poet and astronomer. That initial 36-page copy in 1818 contained "Lunations, Conjunctions, Eclipses, Judgement of the Weather and the "Rising and Setting of the Planets."
And other nuggets of wisdom, of course.
According to the Washington Post, by some accounts, Abraham Lincoln, used the Farmers'Almanac to help a client avoid a murder conviction. A witness said there was a full moon at 11 p.m. on the night of the murder. But that night, the moon was in its first quarter, and set at 11:57 p.m.
The Farmers' Almanac reached its peak from the Depression era of the mid-1930s to around the mid 1990s.
Raymond Geiger, whose company, the Geiger Brothers, took over the Almanac in 1934. Its circulation was 86,000 at the time Geiger took over. By the time Geiger died in 1994, the circulation had increased to 4 million.
The Almanac claimed its weather forecasts for the year, which it said is 85 percent accurate. Most scientists give publications like the Farmers' Almanac about a 50 percent accuracy rate, but that's another story.
For the record, the Farmers' Almanac's final weather prediction says that New England is in for a "cold, snow-filled" winter season.
Fans of the Farmers' Almanac are crushed by the news.
"Please don't go. I've grown up with you and want to keep growing older together," one reader wrote. Another said. "I have had FA in may home every year since I was 19 years old. I am now in my 70s. The wit, wisdom and weather have been like a wonderful old friend to me."
The Farmers' Almanac is not to be confused with the Old Farmer's Almanac, that familiar one with the yellow cover. That one is going full steam ahead. The Old Farmers Almanac has been existence since 1792, longer than the soon to be defunct Farmer's Almanac.
"Rest assured, as sure as the Sun will rise, The Old Farmer's Almanac- with our familiar yellow cover.......will be around for generations to come," the Old Farmer's Almanacsaid in a Facebook post.
Meanwhile, the final edition of the Farmer's Almanac can be purchased on Amazon or in numerous retail stores. Its online presence will go dark in December.
The editors' final statement was poignant. "So go ahead - plant your peas when the daffodils bloom. Watch for a red sky at night. Tell your kids how grandad always swore by the Almanac....That's how our story stays alive"
A heavy blanket of snow this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. It was part of a huge cold and snowy spell over the eastern U.S. Northern areas had zones of heavy snow, while the Southeastern U.S. reported record lows.
I'm looking out the window today at nearly nine inches of snow outside, which is really something for November 11 in Vermont's Champlain Valley.
And it's still snowing a little.
I guess I can take comfort in the fact I have company. A remarkable blast of Arctic air - with snow in many places - has overtaken most of the eastern United States.
Lake effect snows were the big story in the Midwest Monday. Chicago managed to avoid the worst of the lake effect snow bands that threatened the Windy City with up to a foot of snow.
The worst of the lake effect snows hit north, south and east of Chicago. The city itself managed only about two or three inches of snow, while 3.5 inches of snow. Some places, like Momence and Cedar Lake, Illinois, got afoot of snow.
Where it did snow it seemed to come all at once. Video by Live Storms Media showed whiteout conditions in and around Gary, Indiana.
The lake effect snows spread eastward during the day Monday.
Meanwhile, a lake effect snow warning was issued for areas south of Buffalo through tomorrow morning. Some areas could get nearly a foot of snow. Parts of northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio were also getting lake effect snows.
Snow fell pretty far south, too. Stone Mountain, Georgia and Nashville, Tennessee were among the many southern locations that saw snow flurries.
SOUTHERN FREEZE
Freeze warnings this week encompassed a huge swath from eastern Texas to southeast Virginia.
The freeze warnings extended as far south as Brooksville, Florida, which is about 50 miles north of Tampa.
It was a record 28 degrees in Jacksonville, Florida this morning, the earliest in the season its' been this cold since at least 1976. Charleston, South Carolina was also the coldest since 1976 with a low of 29 degrees. Savannah, Georgia reached 28 degrees.
Other record lows in Florida this morning included 31 in Pensacola, 36 in Orlando, 35 in St. Augustine, 38 in Melbourne, 45 in Naples, 42 in Fort Myers and 40 in Sarasota.
Overall, more than 80 record lows were tied or broken this morning, mostly in the southeastern United States.
Freeze warnings are up again tonight in Florida and southern Georgia.
Ironically, the cold spell may in some weird way be related to climate change. In large swaths of the Arctic, temperatures in recent days have been as much as 30 degrees above normal. It's being cause by something called a Greenland Block.
The Greenland Block is a large are of high pressure that sometimes sets up over the Arctic. It's a warm air mass, by their standards, anyway. The Block forces the cold air that's usually way up in Canada southward, into the United States.
The block itself isn't related to climate change, but they're probably boosted by a warmer Earth. We also don't know if climate change makes the Greenland Block happen more frequently than it once did, or is this just some natural thing that happens from time to time with or without climate change.
In any event, the Greenland Block is re-orienting itself by pressing a little more westward into Canada; This will help shut off a lot of the cold air coming from central Canada, though New England will stay on the cool side for quite awhile yet.
But for the rest of the East and Southeast, this was just a foretaste of winter. Not the actual start of the season.
Aftermath of the 8.6 inches of snow that fell on St Albans, Vermont last night. The surprisingly heavy storm in northwest Vermont last evening turned into a roadway nightmare for thousands during the evening commute
Sure, snow was forecast in northwest Vermont, but not like this!
What had 24 hours earlier been billed as an expected one to three inch Monday evening snowfall turned into a commuter nightmare as a burst of snow lasting just a few hours dumped nearly nine inches of snow on parts of northwest Vermont.
The snowfall turned into a roadway nightmare as people were stranded on highways sometimes for hours. Crashes were rife. A snowplow was even reportedly off the road and in a ditch near St. Albans.
The road I live on the steep hills of Route 36 in St. Albans - was closed due to snow for the first time I can remember. It's been closed before due to fallen trees and car crashes, but not snow as far as I can remember, anyway.
The St. Albans areaappears to be the epicenter of this big snow. I measured 8.6 inches of new snow, which is pretty incredible since I'd only been expecting about two inches as of yesterday morning. Swanton and East Enosburg both reported 8.8 inches. South Hero had 8.5 inches.
I'm guessing I might see reports of even deeper snow than that once all reports are in.
Burlington clocked in with 4.8 inches of snow. That surprisingly wasn't the snowiest November 10 on record. The city had 5.3 inches on that date in 1990. That 1990 storm was huge in Vermont, dumping 2.4 inches of rain and melted snow on Burlington. That 1990 storm also deposited more than two feet of snow on some high elevations.
The snow is not quite over, but rest assured we're not going to get two more feet of it. More on the forecast in a bit, but first, how did last night's mess happen?
CONSPIRACY OF SNOW
Everything that could possibly go wrong went wrong with Monday's snow.
To begin with, the first snow of the season, no matter how light and how well predicted, always catches people off guard. The timing of the snow was horrendous, right at the evening rush hour.
Monday's snow was unexpectedly heavy, so it took people by surprise. By Sunday night, there were hints that Champlain Valley could be the focus of a little extra snow, but at that time, meteorologists thought it would only be a couple inches.
With that, people set off for work, not especially troubled by their expected commute home. An inch or two of snow is not that big a deal, right?
It probably didn't even cross some people's minds that they should try to work from home, if possible. I also imagine some state and municipal snowplows and trucks weren't fully geared up for winter yet.
By about noon, the National Weather Service realized that the snow was going to be tougher than they thought. They issued a winter weather advisoryfor northwest Vermont, with forecast totals of two to five inches. The advisory warned of difficult driving at around the evening rush hour.
The snow blasted in abruptly, on schedule. It started as light rain and drizzle shortly before 4 p.m. (It was freezing drizzle here in St. Albans). Then it quickly flipped to wet snow and by 5 p.m. it was coming down hard. The rather heavy snow continued well into the evening.
Wet snow is terrible on the roads. The slush packs down into ice beneath the weight of car and truck tires. It was rush hour, so everyone, well, rushed out of work to get home before things got too bad.
But it was too late. Cars slid off roads or into each other everywhere. In many places, vehicles couldn't make it up even modest hills. Roads and highways turned into parking lots. Parts of Interstate 89 between Burlington and Swanton were a parking lot. Plow truck drivers scrambled, but couldn't fight their way through the gridlock.
It was easily one of the worst travel messes I can remember. I'm so glad I got home at around 3 p.m. yesterday, when the freezing drizzle was just starting.
To make matters even worse, nearly 2,100 homes and businesses lost electricity at times Monday evening.
Meanwhile, rain lasted longer in eastern Vermont, and only changed to snow toward the end of the storm. Central Vermont, in places like Worcester, Barre and Elmore only received about an inch and a half of snow.
The Connecticut Valley in southeastern Vermont got nothing. In southwest Vermont, traffic camera images from around Rutland and Bennington makes it appear they got around an inch of snow.
TODAY
Predicted snowfall this morning through Friday morning. Not much additional in the valleys, but the northern Green Mountain summits could see as much as a foot of snow over the next several days.
Well, we made it through our first big snow nightmare of the season. The good news is we're not getting another mega snow in the near future. The bad new is it's going to keep snowing in much of Vermont.
In fact, in the higher elevations especially, it will snow off and on pretty much all week.
Roadways are much better this morning, but there are still some slick spots. Especially once you get off the main highways. Additional snow showers will also make things tricky at times.
Today will be blustery and cold with snow showers. It looks like St. Albans and much of the rest of Franklin County can expect another one to three inches of snow today through tonight. It won't come down nearly as hard as it did last evening.
Highs today still look like they'll stay near or below freezing in much of northern Vermont, while warmest areas in southern Vermont sneak into the mid-30s.
It'll turn a little warmer, if you can call it that, tomorrow and Thursday, so as weather disturbances keep coming through, the snow showers will change to rain showers in the low and some mid elevations. The mountains will keep getting snow.
The valleys should get more snow showers as it gets colder again Thursday night, but again, accumulations will be light. At least in the low elevations.
By Friday morning, Green Mountain summits in northern and central Vermont should receive six or more inches of additional snow. I wouldn't be surprised if places like Jay Peak clock in with an additional foot.
There's also no rest for the pre-winter weary. A storm could bring some mixed precipitation again toward next Sunday.
Updated National Weather Service snow forecast has two to five inches coming down this evening in northwest Vermont. The evening commute will be awful A little more snow should grace us tomorrow, too.
As expected, precipitation was rapidly blossoming northward through Vermont as of 2:30 p.m. and will engulf all of the state by late this afternoon.
Things are looking even worse than they did this morning for northwest Vermont. So, a winter weather advisoryis now up for northwest Vermont - Chittenden, Franklin, Lamoille and Orleans County.
It should start in earnest around the Champlain Valley by around 3 or 4 pm. It was already drizzling as of 2 pm.
It should change to snow by 5 p.m. if not sooner, with an interval of mixed precipitation before then.
A pretty good temperature contrast has set up today in Vermont. At 2 p.m., it was 34 in Burlington and 51 in St. Johnsbury. Cold air is draining southward down the Champlain Valley very readily. So it won't take much for any rain to change to ice, then snow.
Accumulations in thewinter weather advisory zone should from 2 to 5 inches, with possibly locally higher amounts near the mountains. The most snow looks like it will be in Franklin County along and east of Interstate 89, and the Green Mountains from Route 2 north. In those areas, at least 4 or 5 inches should accumulate by late tonight.
Right around Burlington, they're going for two inches. Which doesn't seem like much, but the timing of the snow couldn't be worse, which is what makes this so "special."
A Vermont state highway truck and driver seen at a St. Albans service station early Monday afternoon. Probably prepping for the impending rush hour snow burst today.
The heaviest snow will probably come down between 5 and 8 p.m., so the drive home in the Champlain Valley and other parts of northwest Vermont is going to be awful. If you can sneak away from work right now, by 3 or 4 p.m. at the latest, that will help.
I expect some serious traffic jams with this snow. We're not used to driving in snow, since we really haven't had any yet. (Sunday morning's snow was so minor I don't count it.)
This will also be largely a wet snow, which is particularly slippery and tends to compact into an especially slick version of ice beneath car and truck tires.
There are a few trees in urban areas like Burlington, Winooski and St. Albans that still have some leaves clinging to them. The wet snow collecting on the leaves, and a steady north wind makes me suspect there might be a few power outages to add to the delight this evening will become.
In warmer parts of eastern Vermont, by the time we get a changeover to snow later this evening, the best moisture will be starting to exit.
Snow showers will keep going tomorrow amid the forecast cold and blustery conditions, so there will be a little additional accumulation.
If you're like me, a Franklin County resident who has not completed all his outdoor autumn garden chores, you're screwed. The snow that accumulates with this evening's mess might not fully melt away for more than a week.
Especially since we have other chances of snow showers through the rest of the week. Of course, I'll have updates tomorrow morning, or sooner than that if needed.
The Edmund Fitzgerald, which sank in one of the worst "gales of November" on record, 50 years ago today.
It seems like yesterday to me, but it's already the 50th anniversary of the day the Edmund Fitzgerald sank in a brutal, unmerciful storm blasting through Lake Superior.
Thanks perhaps in large part to the song by Gordon Lightfoot, the Edmund Fitzgerald is easily among the most famous shipwrecks in U.S. history, right up there with the Titanic and the sinking of the fishing boat Andrea Gail during the 1991 "Perfect Storm."
At age 13 at the time, I was already a hopeless weather geek and to this day I clearly remember that storm, and the brief, scattered news reports at the time when the Edmond Fitzgerald sank.
Gordon Lighftoot turned the wreck into modern folklore with his iconic song about the disaster.
Every time the wind comes up this time of year - which is frequently - my mind goes to the vicious "gales of November" on the Great Lakes.
THE EDMUND/EDMOND FITZGERALD
The 1975 sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald was the second time a ship by that name sank in the Great Lakes.
Back in 1870 a two-masted schooner, the Edmond Fitzgerald - Edmond spelled with an "o" instead of the "u" we had in the 1975 shipwreck - was built to carry grain and wood in the Great Lakes.
In 1883, the original Edmond Fitzgerald sank in yet another November storm in the Great Lakes. On November 14 that year, the two-mastered schooner was trying to get across Lake Erie with one last cargo of wheat before shipping closed on the lake that season.
The schooner got caught in a snowstorm with high winds. The crew got disoriented, and the Edmond Fitzgerald ran aground on a shoal near Long Point, Ontario. The schooner broke apart, and the crew of seven all died.
It's no accident that both ships of the same name were lost in November. The month is the scariest of them all on the Great Lakes.
The water in the lakes isn't exactly warm in November. But those lakes absorbed the sun's warmth all summer, so the water is now much tepid than the frigid air that starts to blow in from Canada this time of year.
The contrast between the increasingly frigid air and remaining mild autumn air to the south often makes storms in the middle of the nation pretty strong to begin with.
Once these storms enter the Great Lakes, the relatively mild water gives the storms an added boost of energy. The storms intensify, the wind howls harder than ever. Torrential rains and thunder peal in the warm air on the east side of these storms. Blinding snow and freezing rain rage on the west and north side of these powerful November Great Lakes gales.
Even as the storms begin to depart, strong, cold winds blow over the comparatively warm water, causing blinding lake effect snows.
For centuries, hundreds of long ships plied all five Great Lakes carrying lumber, limestone, copper, cars, crops and iron.
The modern day Edmund Fitzgerald was launched from Detroit in 1958. This was a big deal. As NPR reports:
"It was in fact the greatest ship on the Great Lakes," John U. Bacon said in his new bestseller The Gales of November: The Untold Story of the Edmund Fitzgerald." "Fifteen thousand people came out to see the launching. When it went through the Soo Locks or Detroit or Duluth, people would sit half a day to see this ship come through. It was a rock star."
Late on November 8, 1975 the storm formed in the Oklahoma panhandle. By the morning of November 9, the fast-strengthening storm was over Kansas, on a path that would take it over Lake Superior on November 10.
While the storm was developing in the Plains, the Edmund Fitzgerald left port with its 26,000 tons of taconite in 21 watertight cargo hatches.
Weather map on November 10, 1975 shows an intense storm right over Lake Superior.
A gale warning was issued for Lake Superiorand the captain of the Edmund Fitzgerald acknowledged receiving the warning. Earlier forecasts had indicated that the storm would not be as intense as it turned out to be.
By mid-afternoon of November 10, the Fitzgerald had "a bad list" according to a radio transmission by the ship's captain.
Heavy seas were crashing over the deck in one of the worst seas the crew had ever seen on Lake Superior. Some weather observations on and near Lake Superior were reporting wind gusts of near hurricane force.
The last radio transmission from the Edmund Fitzgerald came at 7:10 p.m., when the captain radioed that they were "holding their own."
But very soon after that, the Edmund Fitzgerald was gone.
The best guess is that the ship suddenly sank shortly thereafter. There were no distress signals. The Edmund Fitzgerald sat 17 miles from the relative calm of Whitefish Bay. The ship was later found, broken in two, in 530 feet of water.
THE SONG
Gordon Lightfoot wrote and performed "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald," a stunning story song that beautifully illustrates the tragedy of that shipwreck 50 years ago today.
"The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald" was easily among the best songs of the 1970s, created by one of the most gifted songwriters of the era.
It was an unlikely hit. It ran for six minutes, much longer than most pop songs. It really didn't have much of a chorus, or a hook. It was wordy.
But the melody, the arrangement and the meticulous storyline Lightfoot crafted made "The Wreck Of the Edmund Fitzgerald irresistible.
It hit its peak on the Billboard charts just about a year after the actual sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald. The highest it reached was #2 on the charts during the weeks of November 20 and 27, blocked from the top spot both weeks by "Tonight's The Night," by Rod Stewart.
To give you a sense of how awful the music charts could sometimes be in the mid 1970s, I'll give you this nugget: At the same time "The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald" was in the Billboard Top 10, so was "Disco Duck" and "Muskrat Love."
Go figure.
But at least Gordon Lightfoot graced us with this exquisite folk ballad that year.
The song is recognizable from the very first chord, and immediately evokes what the 29 doomed men on the Edmund Fitzgerald must have seen and felt on November 10, 1975.
When I hear "The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald," my mind immediately goes to a storm-wracked shoreline, all colors of the landscape reduced to a monochromatic dark gray amid the gales. I picture enormous waves crashing onto the rocks, screaming winds battering storm-weary evergreens on land, sheets of rain blasting sideways.
There were about 6,000 shipwrecks in the Great Lakes between 1875 and 1975. Lightfoot turned the Edmund Fitzgerald tragedy into a story for the ages.
According to Rolling Stone,one night in his home in Toronto, Lightfoot was playing around with the melody of an old Irish dirge that was stuck in his head. Around 10 p.m. he decided to take a break. He noticed how stormy it was outside.
"The wind was howling even in Toronto," he said, "and I went back up to the attic thinking, 'I wonder what it's like up on Lake Superior. It must've been awful."
That windy night when Lightfoot was playing with the dirge melody was November 10, 1975, the night the Edmund Fitzgerald sank. He unknowingly started writing the song at just about the same time the ship disappears beneath Lake Superior's punishing waves.
Shortly after Lightfoot learned about the shipwreck, the lyrics came quickly.
According to Complex.com, Lightfoot wrote the following on an Ask Me Anything (AMA) on Reddit back in 2014:
"The Edmund Fitzgerald really seems to go unnoticed at the time, anything I'd seen in the newspapers or magazines were very short, brief articles, and I felt I would like to expand upon the story of the sinking of the ship itself."
"And it was quite an undertaking to do that. I went and bought all of the old newspapers, got everything in chronological order and went ahead and dit it because I already had a melody in my mind ."
"'He feared being inaccurate, corny or worse, appearing to exploit a tragedy for profit, ' writes John U. Bacon in his new bestseller, "The Gales of November, the Untold Story of the Edmond Fitzgerald. 'But more than that, as a fellow sailor and a child of the Great Lake...this song - whatever it was - was deeply personal.'"
Lightfoot only took a few liberties with the lyrics. The Edmund Fitzgerald was headed for Detroit, not Cleveland.
The lyric "When suppertime the old cook came on deck/sayin it's too rough to feed ya/At 7 pm., a main hatchway caved in/He said, Fellas, it's been good to know ya."
Of course it's impossible to know who said what during the last hours and minutes before the ship sank, but the lyric is a gut punch nonetheless.
After Lightfoot wrote and released the song, an investigation revealed that crew members were blameless in the sinking. So in live concerts, he changed the words regarding the hatchway to "At 7 p.m. it grew dark...."
Toward the end of the song, Lightfoot sings: "In a musty old hall in Detroit they prayed/In the maritime sailors' cathedral."
The "musty old hall" was really the Mariner's Church of Detroit. A parishioner once insisted to Lightfoot the church is not "musty." So, in live concerts, he sang about the "rustic old hall."
Loved ones of the men who died on the Edmund Fitzgerald, and other people associated with Great Lakes shipping obviously embraced the song.
"After Lightfoot's death in 2023, the Mariner's Church rang its bell 29 times for the crew of the Edmund Fitzgerald and an additional 30th time for Lightfoot himself."
---30----
Click on this link or if you see the image below, click on that for Gordon Lightfoot's "The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald"
The light snow we had Sunday morning melted into slush and cold water as we endured a dark and drizzly November day across Vermont.
It started cheerful enough with Vermont's first light snows of the seasons, but it devolved into a wet, drizzly, foggy, gray and cold day.
I noticed there wasn't much activity out on the streets. I think everyone was inside, huddled in blankets watching football or Netflix or something.
It could have been worse, and in northern New York it was. Freezing rain hung on most of the day.
Over in Massena, they had 0.34 inches of freezing rain, so I'm pretty sure the trees are sagging under the weight of the ice there.
A cold, but not freezing rain continued on an off all night here in Vermont. We can write that off as a little more drought relief. As of 6 a.m. Burlington had received roughly a half inch of rain out of this so far. Montpelier and Rutland were closing in on two thirds of an inch. Bennington and Springfield had accumulated just under an inch of rain through dawn today.
Unfortunately, it looks like the Northeast Kingdom, where the drought is the worst in Vermont, is sort of missing out again. At least so far. St. Johnsbury had about a third of an inch of rain so far. Though it was still raining up there as of 6 p.m., and more rain and snow is headed their way.
Most of Vermont is going to get into the snow today and tomorrow. Maybe not a blockbuster winter storm, but certainly some weather to pay attention to.
Here are the details:
TODAY.
National Weather Service snowfall prediction map today through early Wednesday. I suspect totals could possibly go slightly higher than this in the eastern Champlain Valley and western slopes of the Green Mountains. We'll see!
A pretty solid area of rain was over almost all of Vermont as of 6:30 a.m. Even higher elevation roads like Route 17 in Buels Gore and Route 242 in Westfield were just wet.
However, I've noticed that in the northern Champlain Valley, a little sleet was mixing with the rain as it came close to tapering off at around 7:30 a.m.
That rain should mostly clear out of Vermont by around mid-morning.
But this isn't over.
The forecast is tricky, but there's still one last area of low pressure riding northward, passing near Cape Cod this afternoon and into Maine this evening.
It looks like that storm will make precipitation blossom again this afternoon and evening across Vermont. Meanwhile, colder air will be blasting in from the west and north.
The western edge of the precipitation from a storm like the one that will pass through eastern New England today often contains a band of heavier rain or snow. The National Weather Service says that relatively heavier band might set up in or near the Champlain Valley.
With the cold air coming in, western Vermont - including busy areas around Burlington - look like they're in for a period of at least moderate snow for the afternoon and evening commute.
Accumulations won't be spectacular, maybe an inch or two, but that's more than enough to seriously mess up the roads. Especially since half of us don't have snow tires, some of us are just maniacs that don't know how to drive in the snow, and many more of us don't have our "snow legs" yet.
Meaning we haven't driven in the snow in many months and are not used to the tricks of the trade of winter driving.
So, if you can work from home today, do it. Just to be on the safe side.
This won't be just a Champlain Valley thing. Snow or sleet will come down in most of the rest of Vermont, too. So, if you're driving through Montpelier, or Newport, or even mid and high elevations around Rutland and east of Bennington, you're going to have to watch your step on the roads, too.
Temperatures will be marginal and we're still a little shaky on where the heaviest snow or rain will set up later today. Be ready for surprises.
TONIGHT
Snow will probably continue into this evening. Toward midnight and before dawn, the snow showers should mostly retreat to the western slopes of the Green Mountains and the summits overnight. Lighter flurries will come down elsewhere.
Most places will have a dusting to two inches of new snow out of this, with a little more of course in the mountains. It'll get well down into the 20s, so things will freeze up pretty well. Expect icy patches to stay on some of the roads and sidewalks.
TUESDAY
Regrettably, it's going to be a rough time for the Veterans Day parades and such, since it will be the coldest day so far this autumn/early winter.
Many places in central and northern Vermont won't even get above freezing. The warmer, banana belt towns will barely make it to 34 or 35 or so.
Winds will make it feel worse. It'll be a stiff northwest breeze, gusting to 25 mph or more. The wind chill will be in the teens to low 20s. Ugh.
The snow showers that will have been falling in the mountains will tend to spread out into the central and northern Vermont valleys during the afternoon. We'll blame a disturbance racing along through the northwest flow for that.
Once again, we won't get much new snow, maybe another dusting to two inches. Obviously the mountains will get a little more than that. The valleys of southeast Vermont will probably miss out completely, aside from maybe a few flurries.
BEYOND TUESDAY
In two words: Not great.
Wednesday will be slightly warmer (yay!) but still a little cooler than average for mid-November. But another weak storm zipping on through will through will bring some more light snow and light, cold rain.
It'll be mostly snow up high, and mostly rain in the lower valleys. It will all be enough to make Wednesday an unpleasant day, even if rain and melted snow amount to less than a tenth of an inch of rain.
Thursday and Friday both look like they'll be drab and chilly, with the ever-present risk of snow flurries, maybe mixed with sprinkles in the "warmer" valleys. By warmer, I mean the banana belt towns could make it to 40 degrees. Not exactly beach weather.
There is some hints of hope for a little sun Saturday as north winds keep us cold. The next potential storm still looks like it would come through next Monday. But at this point, we still have no idea whether it will come close enough to bother us. And if it does, will be snow, rain, mix, or all of the above?
And how much potential schmutz would we get? All answers we won't know for several days.
Web cam grab from Chicago this morning showing light snow falling. Blinding snow squalls are expected tonight and tomorrow, which will cause serious travel trouble, and tree and power line damage. Another snowstorm will also hit high elevations of the southern and central Appalachians.
It's a little early in the season for massive snowstorms in most of the United States, but a couple of them are in the forecast.
Areas in and around Chicago, and the southern and central Appalachians are about to get blasted by some big, brutal snows.
The overall blame goes to an unusually strong cold snap smashing into the eastern half of the United States. There are no big storm systems accompanying this frigid blast. But some local effects are creating two big autumn snowstorms.
CHICAGO/ENVIRONS
A pretty dire winter storm warninghas been issued for the Chicago area, and northern Indiana tonight and early Monday.
The cold air is sweeping into the Midwest on north winds. Those north winds are running down the length of still relatively warm Lake Michigan. That's a long fetch down the length of the lake. A great opportunity for the cold air to collect moisture from the still-relatively warm lake.
It's a perfect setup for lake effect snows.
An initial lake effect snow band hit Chicago this morning, but it was just a tease before the main event. This morning's snow was enough to create delays at Chicago's O'Hare airport.
The real show gets underway overnight and on Monday. .
The winter storm warningcalls for "dangerous to impossible travel conditions" due to intense lake effect snow. In some spots, snow could fall at a rate of three inches per hour with local accumulations of 12 to 18 inches. Winds could gust over 30 mph, so they can expect blowing and drifting snow. The intense snows might also be punctuated by thunder and lighting.
Until now, it's been a rather warm autumn in Chicago. Some of the trees still have leaves on them. The snow will accumulate on those leaves and pull branches down. Expected strong, gusty winds won't help. All that would cause a lot of power outages. Chicago might end up with a bunch of damaged homes and other buildings as snow laden trees and large branches crash onto and through roofs.
Lake effect snow bands are usually narrow, so some areas in and near Chicago will get blitzed, and others won't be hit quite as bad. The worst of it will hit before and during the morning commute, so things could get really interesting on the roads and streets Monday morning.
The exact placement of lake affects snows are hard to predict. For now, it looks like the one expected to hit Chicago might wane during the day Monday. But then, another, perhaps stronger snow band off Lake Michigan could plow into northern Indiana, in places like Gary and South Bend tomorrow afternoon and evening.
I'm guessing places from Chicago to South Bend could have their deepest snow for so early in the season by tomorrow.
APPALACHIANS
Pretty much the entire Appalachian chain from Georgia to Maine will see some snow out of this cold outbreak. Parts of the southern and central Appalachians might really get nailed.
The heaviest snow will be limited to the highest elevations. In western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee above Gatlinburg, three to seven inches of snow is forecast above 3,500 feet and 10 inches or more could come down at summit level.
That kind of snowstorm happens from time to time in these mountains but the first half of November is awfully early for such a snowstorm.
Snow showers will extend all the way down to valley floors around Asheville, North Carolina.
Further north, another winter storm warningis in effect for the mountains of eastern West Virginia. Those areas could see seven or more inches of snow. Wind gusts of 40 mph or more combined with the snow might bring down trees and power lines.
Several inches of snow is also likely in the northern Appalachians, especially through New England. That far north, such high elevation snowfalls are pretty common this time of year.
In Illinois, Indiana and the Appalachians, temperatures are forecast to go back to near seasonable levels by the middle of this week. That should melt the early season snow. Then they can safely wait until winter really hits.
