Climate Change Made California Fires More Likely

A bank burns during the January wildfire crisis in southern
California. Experts have concluded that climate change 
made this disaster more likely. Photo by CalFire.

Climate change made those horrific January California wildfires more likely, but the overall picture is complicated, experts who have done an analysis on the crisis have concluded. 

World Weather Attribution is an organization that does rapid response analyses of extreme weather events to determine whether climate change contributed to these events and to what extent. 

The link between the fires and climate change is complex, but it is there. 

Yale Climate Connections reported on the World Weather Attribution findings:

"The hot, dry and windy conditions that drive the fires were about 35 percent more likely and 6 percent more intense due to 1.3 degrees Celsius of global warming that has occurred since preindustrial times."

Also, "Low rainfall from October through December in the current climate is about 2.4 times more likely compared to the preindustrial climate, but this change cannot be confidently attributed to human-caused climate change"

"Fire-prone conditions because of human-caused climate change have increased by about 23 extra days each year, increasing the chance a fire will start from October through December, which coincides with the onset of peak Santa Ana wind season." 

Other findings by WWA suggest that the California dry season has increased by about 23 days since the global climate began warming to its current 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

That means there's now a greater overlap between the time Santa Ana winds typical hit and the times that those winds can create firestorms like we saw last month in California. 

WWA also noted that the atmospheric patterns that are known to strengthen Santa Ana winds has increased in the winter, which increases the risk of weather that encourages wildfire in January. However, WWA scientists say they are unsure if this atmospheric pattern trend can conclusively be tied to climate change. More study is needed on that topic. 

The bottom line: WWA concludes that climate change had an impact on the fires. Here's their precise conclusion: 

"Given all these lines of evidence we have high confidence that human-induced climate change, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels, increased the likelihood of the devastating LA fires."

Since the likelihood of fires has apparently increased in southern California due to climate change, they'll need to build more resilience to future fires, WWA tells us. 

There is a high number of both elderly and disabled people living in the potential fire zones, so plans need to be in place to help them evacuate more quickly and easily when danger lurks. 

The fires also proved the water infrastructure in the area is inadequate. Despite the bleatings of the Trump administration and others, the reservoirs had plenty of water to fight the fires. 

But city infrastructure like water mains, hydrants and such are designed to handle routine fires, like when a single house or business burns down. The water system clearly can't hand major fires like this, as we know some hydrants ran dry from too much demand in the local systems. 

The region also needs more defensible areas, in which brush and other flammables are kept away from homes, businesses and neighborhoods. And rebuilding should use fire-resistant materials.

As bad as this tragic wildfire episode was, it'll happen again at some time in the future. Now is the time to take steps to make sure southern California - and other wildfire prone areas - take steps to minimize the danger. 

Because climate change is not going to go away. 

 

Signs Beginning To Point To Possibly Snowier Vermont February Regime

The next round of snow, which could begin as rain later
this afternoon, will focus on the north and mountains
again. A number of places north of Route 2 will
see three to six inches of new snow. Areas
near Burlington should get less than that, and 
far southern Vermont will probably miss out.
This forecast has a high bust potential due to
questions about temperatures when things hit.

As we've previously reported, snowfall has been lacking in Vermont, except for in some areas in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Signs point toward a snowier February regime in the Green Mountain State, but there's no guarantee and plenty of questions. 

We do know that the weather pattern has become stormier, and chances are it will stay that way for awhile.

  As I noted Sunday, a  new weather pattern that puts Vermont in a battleground between springlike warmth from the South and Arctic air from the north will probably steer storms toward us.

On top of this, long range forecast guidance has trended colder here in northern New England. If that pattern holds - and I admit that's a pretty big if - storms would pass near Vermont or just to our south. 

That would provide us plenty of snow or worse, mixed precipitation this month. More on that in a bit. 

Our first installment of snow came through overnight, with our expected one to three inches of rather fluffy snow. I had an even two inches here in St. Albans, Vermont.

TODAY/TOMORROW

The next little installment of precipitation isn't going to be so easy.  We have a break in the snow today, and most of us will have that mini-thaw that we've been expecting. Most of us will see highs well into the 30s to near 40. .

That complicates your trip home from work this evening. A cold front will be coming in with its own band of precipitation.  In warmer valleys, it'll start off as a cold rain, then gradually mix with and  change to snow. 

In northwestern Vermont and along the Canadian border, and in many higher elevations, it might be all snow, or at worst start off as a mix of rain and snow. Even though this is happening today, I'm still seeing a lot of questions as to how much rain vs. how much snow, and when the changeover to snow might happen.  

It's going to be marginal between rain and snow in many places, even in the north, late this afternoon and perhaps early this evening. It's a tricky forecast. If rain dominates longer, we obviously won't see as much snow. If the snow wins out more than expected, we could see a little more.

If things work out and time themselves poorly, this will be a mess for those driving home late this afternoon. That slushy, wet snow tends to be particularly slick. I've also noticed many people behind the wheel think slush is just glorified water and you can speed right through. That leads to crashes and slide offs. More joy on the highway. 

The snow this evening will tend to be wet and heavy, which is a departure from the kind of snow we've seen all winter.  Later on, the snow will turn fluffier. 

Overall, accumulations look to be about 2.5 to 6 inches north of Route 2 in Vermont (though less than that near Burlington, where one or two inches looks more likely). A winter weather advisory is in effect for the Vermont and New York counties adjacent to the Canadian border, with the Champlain Valley excluded from that 

It looks like far southern Vermont will get nothing, or just a dusting out of this one, since most of the good moisture - be it rain or snow - will slide by to the north of those areas. . 

The snow will have ended by Tuesday morning, but there probably will be some lingering headaches on the highways for your blissful morning commute. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Wednesday should be dry and cold as our temperature roller coaster continues on unabated. 

The next storm comes along Thursday. It looks like we're going to continue the trend of getting mixed precipitation into the forecast.

It's not a blockbuster, but chances are it will be messy.    Computer models are not agreeing well on this storm at all, so we're going to have to wait for updates to get any smidge of certainty. 

It could end up being a snow to mix to rain scenario if the storm goes to our northwest and another storm doesn't form along the coast. Or the storm could come closer to us, or something real could get going in eastern New England.  That would keep is in a mix of snow and maybe freezing rain, too.

Either way, it looks ugly. But who knows? The storm might surprise us with a third option we're not aware of yet.  Watch this space. 

LATER THIS MONTH

Something else seems likely to come along around Sunday. Forecasts now are leaning toward snow, but there's still a lot of question marks about that, too.  Beyond that, early indications are the weather pattern will stay busy for us through midmonth at least. 

I have seen a pattern in many recent years in which winter snowfall in Vermont is back loaded - meaning the bulk of it has been coming in February, March and April.  It's not every year, and I don't know why it's happening, but it seems to be a bit of a trend. 

Last year, a little more than half the season's snow total came in February, March and April. True, the total of 60.8 inches was below normal, but you get the idea.

Anything could happen of course. But it'll be a long wait before winter storms are no longer a concern in Vermont.  Give it until later in April, at least

   

Hurricane Ravaged Western North Carolina Now Dealing With Wildfires

Wildfire in North Carolina this week in the 
same area slammed by Hurricane Helene
back in September. 

 Western North Carolina does not need any more problems. 

They're still trying to recover from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene back in late September.

People are still living in RVs and even tents in harsh winter cold. Piles of debris are still everywhere. Some roads aren't repaired yet. Perhaps thousands of people are still out of their homes, out of a job or both. 

But. of course, new issues have arisen.  Nothing is ever easy. The latest worry facing western North Carolina is wildfires.

Yes, wildfires. 

As AccuWeather reports, the larger of two fires, called the Crooked Creek Fire burning around the tiny hamlet of Old Fort, about 24 miles east of Asheville along Interstate 40.  This fire at last report covered 250 acres, forced evacuations, damaged one home and destroyed some outbuildings. 

The fires as of Sunday had been contained.  Evacuation orders were lifted. It did rain in the area Friday, and small amounts of rain are in the forecast later this week. 

 Parts of western North Carolina actually endured some renewed flooding with heavy rain at the end of December, but since then, little rain or snow has fallen. 

It's been dry and windy. All those toppled trees and shredded branches lying on the hurricane-damaged forest floor are drying out, creating a fire hazard. 

With fewer trees, and remaining trees leafless for the winter, sunshine can get through and dry things out when there's little rain or snow, like the western Carolina mountains have dealt with this month.  Dry, strong northwest winds have also frequently swept through this area during January. 

Wildfires are most common in the mountains of North Carolina in the late autumn and early spring but do break out from time to time during January if little rain or snow falls, like this month. 

The fallen trees and branches in the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee will continue to increase the fire risk during dry spells for a few years to come yet.  So yes, the wettest possible hurricane to hit the region also ironically is increasing the fire risk, 

VIDEO:

Drone video of the fires in North Carolina. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, clic on that. 

Vermont Has Coldest Morning In Two Years; And Is About To Become A Weather "Battleground State"

In this screen grab from a WCAX web cam this morning,
steam is seen rising from buildings in Rutland, Vermont.
Rutland had a low of 10 below this morning. 

It seems the bottom dropped out of our the thermometers overnight as everybody in Vermont got to experience an old fashioned subzero morning. 

Depending on where you were, it was the coldest morning since either February 3-4, 2023 or sometime in January, 2022.

It got down to at least 24 below at Lake Eden, Vermont. 

Elsewhere in the Green Mountain State, Morrisville touched 22 below, Newport 18 below, Montpelier 15 below. In the banana belt Champlain Valley, Burlington got to minus 8, easily the coldest this winter. 

In surrounding states, both Saranac Lake, New York and Berlin, New Hampshire were 26 below. 

As shivering cold as it was, this morning was no great shakes compared to historical standards. 

We didn't come close to breaking any record lows this morning. The honors for the worst Groundhog Day cold in Vermont goes to 1962, when it was 25 below in Burlington, minus 28 in Montpelier and a decidedly unpleasant 32 below in St. Johnsbury. 

No guarantees, but there's a probably at least a 50/50 chance or better that this morning will turn out to be the coldest in the winter of 2024-25.   We know it won't be this cold again for at least a week, but prepare for changeable weather. 

BATTLEGROUND STATE

We've fallen into a weather pattern that features storms repeatedly smacking into central and northern California and racing east/northeast across the nation into New England on a wicked fast jet stream. 

The storm track represents the battleground between Arctic air generating way up in the frigid north and the first hints of spring warmth trying to sneak up from the south. Here in Vermont, we're one of those battleground states.

Partly because they're moving so fast,  these storms don't have an opportunity to get super strong. But this battleground involving volleys of small storms is why we're having those wide swings in temperature I keep talking about. Warm fronts and cold fronts keep coming at us in quick succession.

Today/Monday 

The next modest storm is racing towards us now.  High clouds that came in around dawn prevented this morning's temperatures from getting even colder. South winds ahead of the storm will have temperatures climbing into the 20s for many of us this afternoon.

 For a few places in the Adirondacks, Vermont's Northeast Kingdom and northern New Hampshire, it will be nearly 50 degrees hotter by this evening than it was early this morning. 

The little storm will come through tonight through Monday night with a burst of snow overnight, with one to three inches of new snow for most of us. The Champlain and lower Connecticut Valleys might get under an inch, actually.

We get a mini-thaw Monday with valley highs touching 40 in several towns with a few rain drops mixing with snow showers here and there. A few more snow showers come in once it cools off Monday night, but we won't see anything huge. 

Tuesday and Onward

The fast pace of weather systems with that roaring fast jet stream overhead makes forecasting a challenge, so expect the unexpected.  And a continuation of wait a minute and it will change whether Tuesday and Wednesday look chilly but not as bad as this weekend has been. Still, at least a few of use will be below zero again early Wednesday morning. 

The next storm is due around Thursday.  Some weather models take it to our northwest, which would give us snow or a mix changing to rain. Other models keep the storm a little to our south, so that would be a snow maybe mixed with freezing rain scenario.  It won't be a huge storm, but it could be messy. 

Stay tuned for updated forecasts there.

After a break for a day or two, there probably will be some sort of new storm on Sunday, a week from today. It's way too soon to tell you how that potential storm would play out. 

Long range forecasts are iffy, but it's looking like February is going to be a more active month than January was.  Storms were lacking in January. We might not be so lucky this month. 

January Turned Out Quiet And Dry In Vermont, A Break From Recent Chaotic Weather

The tone of January in northern Vermont: Snowy 
mountains, but not much in the valleys. 

We just got through a Vermont January and to sum up the weather for the month, I guess we can describe the month as, honestly, a little boring. 

Vermont weather during January frankly lacked personality. It didn't bring any exciting tales to tell in terms of storms. The month didn't wow us with temperature extremes.  If January, 2025 was a person, they would not be the type you'd want to invite to a wild party.  

We can't complain, though. Exciting usually means damaging and disruptive and chaotic when it comes to weather. 

Vermont has had more than our share of that kind of thing in recent months, so it was kind of a nice break to experience a rather colorless January. 

January temperatures statewide averaged out to be right near normal.  Of course this is the "new normal" as "average" is based on the past 30 years of weather. Climate change had already made things around here warmer over those three decades, so "normal" is toastier than it was a couple generations ago. 

A chilly mid-January sunset near Fairfield, Vermont.
This was a relatively rare day in which the sun
was out for a good part of it. 

Had this same month occurred, say in the 1960s or 1970s, we'd be remarking about how mild January was. 

The dull nature of the January, 2025 becomes more apparent when you dive deeper into the temperature data for the month. 

Across the state, average high temperatures for the month were a little colder than what is considered normal these days. Overnight lows for the month were a little on the mild side. 

That at least partly reflects the grey feel we had in January. It was usually cloudy, so that held daytime temperatures down while keeping nighttime temperatures up.

Despite all the clouds, it didn't really snow or rain much. Except for the northern Green Mountains, the entire state had a very dry January.  Most place had less than  half their normal installment of January rain and melted snow. 

It was driest in northern Vermont in towns west and east of the Green Mountains, where less than an inch of precipitation came down. The 0.75 inches of precipitation in Burlington tied with 1933 as the 13th driest January on record since the late 1880s, when reliable records started. 

After another cloudy day, late afternoon sun breaks
through to light up the trees if not the 
clouds in St. Albans, Vermont on January 15. 

Snowfall was below normal too, except for a small area in the northern Green Mountains. Generally speaking, most places in valley locations were about a half foot on the light side. 

Seasonal snowfall is seriously lagging especially in the Lower Connecticut and Champlain Valleys. Burlington should have had 46.6 inches of snow so far this season, instead only 31,2 inches had appeared through January 31. 

FEBRUARY

We've gotten ourselves into a highly variable weather pattern with lots of temperature swings, as I mentioned in an earlier post,  It's usually almost impossible to anticipate what the weather will be like for an entire upcoming month. February, 2025 is even more uncertain than usual.

For those of you who are not dark winter fans, on average, we're on the upswing. On average, the third week of January is the coldest of the year.. February begins a gradual upswing.

First of all, on Friday we had our first post 5 p.m. sunset of the year, at least as observed in Burlington. By February 28, the sun will set at 5:39 p.m. 

The average temperature does not go up much from January during February, but at least there's some improvement. Today's normal high and low temperature in Burlington are 29 and 12 degrees.  By February 28, the normal high and low are 35 and 18

Roller Coaster Vermont Weather Getting Even More Roller Coaster-y

Traffic camera picked up a winter wonderland with
nice dawn colors after last night's snow along 
Route 7 in Shaftsbury, Vermont this morning. 

 Friday evening's snow in southern and central Vermont is heading out, and now we're faced with more up and down weather.  Cold to warm to cold again. With even bigger extremes than we've seen. 

That tired cliche where if you don't like the weather in Vermont it will change in a minute seems to be especially true lately. 

As of early this morning, snow totals from last night are hard to come by as reports haven't really come in yet. I do see 5.2 inches in Norwich, down in Windsor County and 4.5 inches in Landgrave, which is in far southern Vermont. 

Roads were still slick in spots across central and southern Vermont early this morning, so take care on the highways. 

It was nice to see southern Vermont get the snow for a change. For the past month, any snow we have gotten has been mostly focused on the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Route 302 in Topsham was still pretty snow covered
as of 7:30 this morning so take care on the roads
in central and southern Vermont until things
are cleaned up after last night's snow.

The Friday evening snow made it as far north as Route 2, as Burlington reported 1.1 inches of snow last evening. 

Further north, here in St. Albans Friday's snow completely missed us, though we were getting a few flurries early today due to the frigid air blasting in from Quebec. 

In the Champlain Valley, there's still enough ice-free water on the lake to help produce some lake affect snows in parts of Chittenden and Franklin counties this morning.

 A few places could get one to three inches of fluff before that ends probably by noon or so. 

BRIEFLY FRIGID, AGAIN

Temperatures that were in the 30s in many places Friday afternoon were in the low and mid teens just before dawn today. Those readings will either stay steady or slowly fall through the day, even as the sun comes out in many areas this afternoon. 

That sets us up for what will for many of us be the coldest night of the winter so far. Which really isn't saying much since most of us have never been colder than the single numbers to teens below zero so far this season, which isn't all that wild. The record low in Burlington Sunday is 25 below, and we'll get nowhere near that. 

Even so, tonight, clear skies, light winds, Arctic air and snow cover will ensure it gets plenty cold.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going with an expected low of about 6 below in Burlington, to the low teens below in many areas, and low 20s below in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom. 

All that's no where near record cold, but it will feel plenty nippy. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Only one to three inches of snow are expected in our
next round Sunday night, with a brief that likely
for many of us on Monday. 

Then we go back uphill on the roller coaster. We'll warm up cold again Sunday, meaning the temperatures will rocket upward but a stiff south wind will make it feel frigid. Especially in the first half of the day before readings get too warm. 

By late afternoon, most of us will be in the 20s.  Which means it will be a whopping 30 to 40 degrees warmer than it was at the start of the day. 

A warm front passing through Sunday night will give us a burst of light snow, with most of us getting one to three inches. A little less than that perhaps in the Champlain Valley. 

We'll have some "wrong way" temperatures overnight Sunday into early Monday as temperatures stay steady in the 20s or slowly rise toward the low 30s.

That brings us to Monday, and a brief thaw. Warmer valleys get into the low 40s with some light rain showers around. That'll be one peak in our roller coaster ride as those temperatures rocket downward again by Tuesday. 

TUESDAY-FRIDAY

The Tuesday cold snap won't be as bad as tonight's but by Tuesday night, we should be back down in the single numbers above zero, with a few places in minus territory.

But fear not! The temperature goes right back up again.  We can't have more than 12 hours of one type of weather before things switch again, right?

There's still a lot of questions about the next warm up and storm Wednesday to Thursday. But it has the potential to be bigger than these piddling little things we've had for the past month.  Preliminary forecasts have it going by to our northwest.

That would be a snow to rain scenario with a thaw. If it gets really warm and rains a lot, we could have trouble with a bit of flooding, actually. 

We have much more ice on rivers this winter than we did the previous two. That means ice jams are more likely this year during thaws. That'll be something to watch. If not next week then later in the winter or early spring.  

I wouldn't worry too much yet. It might not rain much, or the storm track will shift and it might end up being a little colder than the forecasts right now are saying. Some forecasts depict a weaker storm passing to our south, which would give us light snow instead of a thawing rain. 

Given our roller coaster weather pattern, that late week warmth probably won't last long. Chances are we'll be in the deep freeze again next Friday or Saturday. 

Some Kinda Tricky Weather This Evening, Overnight In Vermont, Especially South

A Vermont State snowplow was caught on a traffic cam
around 5 p.m. today as wet snow fell on Route 9 in
Woodford.  About a half hour before this photo
was taken, the road appeared to be just wet, 
highlighting the rapidly changing road
conditions this evening in southern Vermont. 

 A storm is scooting by to Vermont's south early tonight as another blast of at least semi-Arctic air is poised to drop down on us from Quebec.  

The combination of these two things should give you a heads up if you're planning on driving in the state or surrounding areas tonight, especially in southern Vermont. 

Most valleys managed to get above freezing today. Filtered sunshine north of Route 2 made for a rather pleasant day. 

The further south you went, the worse the weather got. 

 There's been light mixed precipitation in southern Vermont all afternoon, and conditions will get a little thornier as we go through the evening. 

That's because the cold air is just beginning to advance. And the bulk of the precipitation and its most northward extent is coming this evening.

A winter weather advisory is up and running in Bennington and Windham counties - the southernmost part of the state - until 4 a.m. Saturday.  A mix of light rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow was in the process of turning to all snow as darkness fell. These areas can expect two to six inches of snow. 

Central Vermont - places like Rutland, Middlebury, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury  - can expect about 1.5 to as much as three inches of new snow this evening. 

One to four inches of snow is in the forecast overnight
in the southern two thirds of Vermont, with maybe a 
little more than that in high elevations south.
Very little snow is in the card for near the 
Canadian border. Rapidly falling temperatures
tonight will make the wet snow on roads in
southern Vermont freeze, so it'll be tough going. 

I noticed that rain that had been falling in Bennington and Rutland and a few other places in southern Vermont had switched to wet snow as of 5 p.m.  

The wet snow combined with water on the roads across southern Vermont will tend to freeze up soon, making roads dangerous. 

I saw that starting to happen on traffic cams in higher elevations of the bottom half of Vermont already as of 5 p.m.  

North of Route 2, amounts will drop off sharply, but it's a little hard to tell where the cut off between light snow and no snow is going to be. Places up by the Canadian border might not get anything at all. 

If you don't have to travel to the southern half of Vermont tonight, I wouldn't bother. The road crews and salt shakers are out, but there's only so much they can do when temperatures crash into the single number and teens overnight. 

Saturday will be another cold day as the temperature roller coaster continues. That roller coaster of suddenly warm/suddenly cold weather will continue all week. I'll have more on that in a post sometime tomorrow, as we do also face a couple of storm chances as well. 

Hawaii Storm Creates Floods, High Winds, Even Snow And Tornado Risk

A KHON reporter gets splashed by water from passing
vehicles as she reports on flooding in Hawaii Thursday.
The island chain is being hit by an unusually
strong storm that will also bring heavy rains
to California this weekend. 

An unusually powerful storm is slapping Hawaii with a wide variety of rough weather. 

The entire island chain was under a high wind warning until noon Friday. Flooding was developing. There was a risk of severe thunderstorms and even the risk of a tornado or two, which is very rare for Hawaii. 

Power outages were already increasing across Hawaii during the day Thursday. Residents inMaui were told to stay off roads due to high winds and flooding. 

As of early Friday several roads were blocked by flooding as rain came down at a rate of one to as much as three inches per hour. 

The city of Kahului on Maui reported an inch of rain in an hour and wind gusts to 50 mph, which is highly unusual stormy for the location. The National Weather Service warned Maui residents of impending significant and life-threatening flash floods and landslides. 

One town in Maui received 13 inches of rain in the storm. A weather station atop a Maui mountain reported a wind gust to 120 mph. 

Honolulu was slammed by more than 3.5 inches of rain, including just under two inches of rain in two hours. That two inches in two hours is more rain than what normally falls on Honolulu during the entire month of January.  

Winter storms sometimes affect Hawaii this time of year, but this one is especially powerful. 

The storm was expected to deepen to 986 millibars, at a latitude a little south of 30 degrees N which is unusual for a storm that far south. It's about the same latitude as northern Mexico.

The storm is close enough to drag a cold front through Hawaii, which is kind of rare for that far south. Ahead of the front, forecasters were worried about rotating thunderstorms that could produce those waterspouts or potential tornadoes. 

 Early Friday our time on the East Coast, the torrential rains were just moving into the Big Island of Hawaii, and new flash flood warnings were issued for parts of that island.  

Atop the highest volcanoes on the Big Island of Hawaii, winter storm warnings were in effect.  Winter storm warnings up there are actually not all that weird for Hawaii.  The summits are expecting five to ten inches of snow, with wind gusts possibly reaching as high as 90 mph. 

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

What goes on in Hawaii doesn't stay in Hawaii.  The storm north of Hawaii will contribute to atmospheric rivers that will start hitting California today and intensify over the weekend. 

Flood watches are already up for central California, including San Francisco and Sacramento.  This is a "Pineapple Express" from near Hawaii, as we mentioned so it's a warm atmospheric river. That means rain instead of snow will fall pretty high up the slopes of the Sierra Nevada range. Elevations as high as 7,800 to 8,000 feet look like they are in for rain instead of snow. 

There could even be some flooding near Lake Tahoe. 

Southern California, still suffering from a drought, is expected to mostly miss out on this atmosphere river. It probably won't rain down there until Tuesday. It's just as well the rain in southern California won't be torrential, as that would lead to more mudslides and debris flows in areas that suffered through those huge January wildfires. 

Eventually the atmospheric river could consolidate into a storm that might affect us here in Vermont around next Thursday. Watch this space for updates in the coming days. 

 

Local Meteorologists Fired In Ill-Advised Cost Cutting Move, Public Outcry Ends Up Saving Those Jobs, Offers Lessons For Trump Admin

Allen Media Group, owed by billionaire Byron Allen,
pictured here, tried to get rid of dozens of 
meteorologists at their local television stations and
replace them with a consolidated group
of Weather Channel meteorologists in Atlanta.
This did not go over well and was rescinded,
but it's a reminder of how corporate consolidation
hurts locals, including their important weather info,

Local television meteorologists very often quickly get a big fan base, for very good reasons. 

They tend to be personable, and also quickly learn the lay of the land, meaning they're on top of local conditions that make storms worse or less severe depending on which neighborhood they hit.  These meteorologists really become the public's eyes and ears on the ground when the weather crap hits the fan.

Which leads us to the Allen Media Group's really stupid, now rescinded move to fire meteorologists at local stations it owns.  Their weather forecasts would come from Weather Channel meteorologists in Atlanta, who might be excellent at their jobs, but have little idea of the nuances that really make local weather forecasters indispensable. 

This whole kerfuffle gives us lessons on the evils of corporate consolidation, which ensures big money for the CEO but messes with the quality that the public should expect.  

The hijinks of these private corporations also gives us a warning regarding the fate of the National Weather Service. The NWS is  a critical resource in which their meteorologists in regional offices,  like their local TV counterparts, know the areas they cover like the back of their hands, making their storm warnings all the more accurate and effective.

I bring this up because there are fears that the Trump administration could actually disband the National Weather Service and rely on corporate meteorological corporations without that local expertise, and the sense of duty you'd expect from local experts. 

More on that in a moment. 

ALLEN MEDIA AND THE RESCINDED PURGE

Local meteorologists tend to be underpaid, but their dedication to their craft is legend. 

They come to us every day with useful information, and sometimes, with timely, life-saving alerts and warnings. They'll tell you the precise neighborhood the tornado is heading towards, which streets are about to go under water in a flash flood, and why the roads in, say, Waterbury are about to get snow covered and slippery while the roads up in Burlington will stay just fine. 

As one person LeeWatson_357 posted on X:  "Laying off Weather People in tornado prone areas is very dangerous. People based in Atlanta don't know the local areas in markets like Tupelo, Mississippi."

All this made the supposed  cost-cutting move by Allen Media Group, owned by billionaire Byron Allen, this month really stupid.. They axed local meteorologists for television stations and would just send forecasts from its Weather Channel headquarter in Atlanta to its stations across the county. 

As Variety reports:

"Handing out pink slips to dozens of beloved small-market local TV news weathercasters would be ill-advised even in the best of times. But to do it right as unpredictable and dangerous weather disasters tear across the country this month - from wildfires in California to a historic freeze in the south - was particularly tone deaf."

Apparently, local viewers understand this. A huge public outcry led Allen Media Group to rescind the firings. At least for now.

It looks like all the affected television stations were given the same statement from Allen Media Group to read: "After receiving significant feedback across various markets, Allen Media has decided to pause and reconsider the strategy of providing local water from the Weather Channel in Atlanta and (local television station) will continue to provide market-leading coverage from your Storm Tracker Meteorologists."

As tvtechnology.com reports, local stations affected by the layoff cancelations were grateful to their audiences. "Your calls, emails texts... every word spoken in support of our team was heard, and without your outpouring of messages that rang so loud, this change may not have been possible," said Craig Ford, the news anchor for ABC affiliate WTVA in Tupelo, Mississippi. 

LESSONS LEARNED

This bad move by Allen Media was averted, but these consolidation efforts are happening throughout the media. It's not just meteorologists: 

Variety reports:

"Sinclair, CBS, Gray Media and others have done variations of the same in recent years. These cost-cutting moves are a disappointing financial reality given a soft advertising marketplace and audiences turning their attention away from TV.  It's also happening in newspapers of course. But what's lost in these moves to centralize coverage is the local expertise and nuance that goes from having your boots on the ground, knowing the intricacies of your community and having a personal relationship with viewers. 

Ironically, removing all of that will only hasten the demise of local media as we know it. What is more local that the daily weather forecast? Stripping away the very selling point that still makes broadcast valuable - it's live, local nature - may help save a few coins in the short run, but it's a recipe for obsolescence in the long term."

I witnessed that here in Vermont when I worked at the Burlington Free Press. It was founded in 1827 and became a daily in 1848.  It had a storied past of ground breaking Vermont journalism. When I joined the paper in the late 1980s, it was still the to-go source for news and information. 

The paper's corporate overlord kept doing its cost cutting, laying off workers in waves (I was finally led go in 2013). Now the Burlington Free Press is pretty irrelevant, online only, and no longer a source of local news brought to you by journalists who really knew the community. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

During his campaign, Donald Trump professed to know little about Project 2025 and he said he had even less involvement in it.

Project 2025 is a detailed plan developed in recent years by the conservative Heritage Foundation explaining how they wanted to radically change the federal government. This plan would only happen, the conservatives thought, if Trump was elected. 

And here we are. 

As I wrote last August, one of the ideas in Project 2025 would privatize the National Weather Service. Some private corporation would issue forecasts from somewhere, probably with less expertise, never mind any expertise on local conditions.  Perhaps the forecasts and life saving weather warnings would be behind a paywall, making only people with means to be able to hear, say, a tornado warning.

So far, nothing like this has been proposed, but the Trump administration is still very young. It could definitely still happen.

Which brings us back to public outcry. 

Loud opposition to Trump's steamroller of dubious decisions won't overturn all of them.  But public opposition is already slowing down and in some cases at least temporarily stopping some bad idea. As seen in the Allen Media Group blunder, the public can change things it doesn't like. 

Especially when it involves crucial resources and safety that are held near and dear to hearts of the public. 

  

Baked Alaska: How That Frigid Northern State Not So Frigid This Winter, Compared To The Lower 48.

Not something you see very often: Water on top of ice
during a January thaw in normally frigid interior 
Alaska. Photo taken last week near Fairbanks. Photo
from National Weather Service office, Fairbanks. 

The Washington Post just had an interesting piece comparing the kind of January Alaska has had compared to the rest of us in the tropical Lower 48. 

Compared to Alaska, the Lower 48 ain't so tropical.  There's quite a role reversal going on. 

Anchorage, Alaska is having one of its warmest Januaries on record. With just a few days left in the month, the average temperature for January is 29.3 degrees, or a whopping 13 or so degrees warmer than normal.

Anchorage in January has been warmer than such cities as Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Louisville. 

We also had that famous snowstorm along the Gulf Coast earlier this month, which means New Orleans and Pensacola, Florida have had more snow this January than Anchorage. 

It's not just Anchorage. Fairbanks, in interior Alaska, is normally known as a forbidding icebox, where low temperatures often get into the 40s below zero and sometimes in the 50s to near 60 below. 

For only the second time on record, Fairbanks had a low temperature on a January day that was above freezing. (33 on January 25). On seven days this month,  the temperature in Fairbanks rose above 32 degrees. 

The normal high during January is 3 above zero and the normal low is about 15 below.  

Meanwhile, most of the Lower 48 has been unusually cold this January. That's especially true in the southeastern half of the United States. Though that region is having a mild spell in the closing days of this month, it will still be among the colder Januaries on record in much of the South.

The only regions of the Lower 48 that have been warmer than average are Maine, and large sections of Nevada, California, Oregon and Utah. 

REASONS AND OUTLOOK

The Alaska warmth is probably a mix between a fluke and climate change. A persistent northward bulge in the jet stream has kept Alaska on the mild side. A corresponding dip in the jet stream has pushed frigid air that's normally up in Alaska and northern Canada down into the United States. 

A marine heat wave, which is a zone of much warmer than normal ocean temperatures, has been ongoing in the Pacific from near Japan to the Gulf of Alaska. The marine heat wave is likely at least partly due to climate change and has probably been bolstering the Alaska balminess.

Plus, cold waves are in general less cold than they once were and hot spells are hotter in this age of climate change. That's likely a factor that has caused record heat in Alaska.  

The cold temperatures in the Lower 48 have broken few record lows, except near the Gulf Coast, where a previously unheard of snow cover combined with clear nighttime skies caused all time record lows as cold as 1 below zero not far from the Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana. 

(Editor's note: Yes, the Trump administration has renamed it Gulf of America, but international regulators, as well as the Associated Press style book still call it the Gulf of Mexico, so that's what we'll do here). 

The Alaska winter warmth is expected to mostly continue for awhile yet. The latest National Weather Service extended forecast out to two weeks calls for continued above normal temperatures in most of Alaska at least until a tad before Valentine's Day.  

For the Lower 48, the outlook is mixed, with variable conditions over the next two weeks. The northwestern United States is most likely to stay on the chilly side. 

Theses kinds of things do have a tendency to even out, usually. Although everything is skewed by climate change, I'm sure the Lower 48 will have its torrid hot spells in 2025 while Alaska will at least at times, revert back to its usual chilly vibe 

While Vermont Mountains Bask In Snow For A Change, Valleys Continue To Struggle With Snow Cover

A snow squall manages to put down another 1.5 inches
of snow in St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday. Vermont
valleys continue to lack snow, while many mountain
areas have a decent snow cover for a change. 

It continues to be a winter of two very different Vermonts in one season.

Many mountain locations are basking in some of the best snow conditions in years for skiing and riding, while many valleys can't seem to hold on to their snow cover. 

A big part of the problem is a persistent weather pattern that has favored snowfalls in the central and  northern Green Mountains while valleys get cheated. 

Another issue is something we've dealt with frequently in the past couple of decades; Frequent winter thaws. As climate change has taken hold, it's gotten a lot easier for temperatures to get above freezing in Vermont even in what should be the coldest times of the year. 

Most recent winters have features spells where temperatures rise well into the 40s and 50s, sometimes near 60, melting snow even in the highest elevations. These warm spells have also lasted for several days in a row.

Hard to keep a snow cover under those conditions. 

This winter, the thaws have been brief and not all that warm, which is why the mountains have hung on to their snow cover.  The very thin snow cover in some valleys evaporates as we occasionally see days that get into the mid 30s and low 40s. Higher terrain has mostly stayed below freezing, with only brief excursions into the mid-30s.   . 

So far this winter, Burlington has not gone longer than eight days in a row with continuous subfreezing temperatures, so the bits of snow the city gets don't last long. (The record for longest stretch of continuously at or below freezing weather is 51 days from December 22, 1976 to February 10, 1977).

The result is there's never been more than five inches of snow on the ground in Burlington this winter, and then, only pretty briefly.  Meanwhile, the snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield reached 66 inches by Wednesday, which is above the average of 50 inches for late January. 

THE LATEST SNOW AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday was yet another example of mountains rich in snow and valleys losing out.  Most valleys saw one to three inches of snow, while parts of the northern Green Mountains saw more than eight inches.

Valleys in central and southern Vermont also once again briefly got above freezing. Rutland, Springfield and Bennington all had highs Wednesday in the upper 30s.

I managed to eke out 3.2 inches of snow here in St. Albans, for a total snow depth of five inches, the most I've seen all winter. A snow squall in the late morning boosted my total. See video at the bottom of this post. 

A five inch snow depth is not exactly overwhelming, and forecasts indicate I shouldn't expect much more anytime soon. At least I haven't broken my back shoveling deep, soggy wet snowfalls like we've seen in recent winters, so I'm thankful for that. 

This state of affairs will our winter weather pattern will continue. 

Another fairly minor system zips through Friday and Friday night, bringing precipitation mostly to southern Vermont. But once again, after a cold Thursday, most valleys in Vermont will end up just above freezing again by Friday afternoon. Rain will probably actually mix with the snow in some parts of southern Vermont. 

After turning cold again Saturday, yet another relatively minor system will poke temperatures up in to the upper 30s and low 40s again on Monday, leading to valley thawing and perhaps a little rain mixed with snow, but probably another inch or two of snow up in the mountains.

VIDEO

A St. Albans, Vermont snow squall at least briefly makes things look pretty wintery. The squall deposited 1.5 inches of snow atop 1.7 inches that hit earlier in the morning.  At least it was pretty. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Kindness, Generosity, Heroics Emerge From The Ashes Of California

Edgar McGregor, who offers weather and climate
information on social media from Altadena, California,
warned residents to get out quickly as the wildfires
escalated quickly earlier this month. His warnings
are credited with saving an unknown number
of lives as people heeded his messages.

I still keep hearing inspiring and good stories coming out to the tragedy borne of those horrible California wildfires this month.

I thought I'd highlight a few, mostly in video reports that you see below. 

First, though, we introduce you to Edgar McGregor, 24. 

Altadena Life Saver

McGregor is one of those weather geeks you find on line, a little like me, but much better. For several years, he's been the leader of the "Altadena Weather and Climate" group on Facebook. 

Days before the fire, he was passing on tips to Altadena residents, warning them that a serious fire weather was coming, to gather their important documents and go bags. He even told people to park their cars front end toward the street, which would make hasty evacuations quicker. 

McGregor saw the Eaton Fire as it was just starting that horrible windy day. It would go on to devastate  neighborhoods in Altadena and elsewhere.

The expertise McGregor gleaned over the years made him understand shortly after the fire stated it was just getting going on a mountainous area, with thick brush and wind funneling through that area. He knew the blaze would establish a powerful fire front that would mow through neighborhoods. 

So he started warning residents to flee even before any official evacuation orders had been issued by county authorities. As the fire just started to gain steam, he released a 31-second video on social media: "Don't wait for an official evacuation notice,!" he said in the video, smoke visible billowing behind him. . "If you think you should leave, get out! 

People trusted McGregor because he's not one to overhype weather events, a very smart move on his part. He doesn't do his thing just for clicks and likes. "You know I don't overhype things, you know that if I'm saying it, it's serious, and you need to take it serious, and you need to get out," he told ABC7.

As a result, when McGregor offered his strongly worded warnings, people fled immediately.  People who did heed McGregor's warnings said he saved their lives.

For the record, McGregor himself escaped the fire unharmed and his house is still standing. 

VIDEOS

The Photographer:

I've really got to hand it to the local journalists in the Los Angeles area who covered the wildfire disaster. They brought quick information, insight, serious investigations and most important humanity to this horrible event. 

Gina Ferazzi is a veteran photographer, a Pulitzer Prize winning one, for the Los Angeles Times is featured in a video from the paper showing what it's like to cover a wildfire calamity like this. Stick to the end, too as some of Ferazzi's incredible photographs are shown. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The Note

Examples of generosity and kindness keep emerging from the ashes of southern California neighborhoods.

In one case, a woman, originally from Iran had years ago purchased a tile at a historic mosque in her home country. As she fled her Pacific Palisades home ahead of the wildfires gave two firefighters the tile as a token of her appreciation.

The woman returned days later to discover firefighters had saved her home and a note was attached to her door. It was from the two firefighters, thanking the woman for the gift and wanting to keep in touch.

The video news story tells it better. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

The Beer Coolers

Los Angeles television station ABC7 tells the story of a family who returned after their evacuation to find their house destroyed by the fire. But they also found two blue beer coolers that had been mysteriously left in their driveway. 

They opened the coolers to find their family photos stacked inside. 

Turns out firefighters were trying to save the family's home, but the fire roared through the attic and the firefighters realized the fight to save the house was lost. But on the way out of the house, they pulled down the family photos from walls and shelves and stashed them in the coolers, hoping to at least save them.

The plan worked, as this wonderful to watch news video shows. Again, click on the link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

The Paintings

In another case of a few saved belongings, an NBCLA reporter during the firestorm encountered a man trying to escape his home on a bike while struggling with some paintings under his arms. There's no way the man could have managed with those paintings on his bike.

So the reporter grabbed the paintings and promised to keep them in safekeeping until they could meet again. The reporter did give the paintings back. Click here to view the news video, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The Marriage Proposal

One particular couple in Altadena were among thousands that lost their homes. Brian McShea had just purchased an engagement ring before the fire, but when they fled, he left it in a desk drawer. 

Miraculously, he found the ring in the rubble and proposed on the spot. Spoiler: She said yes. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that:

 

Vermont Weather Remains Busy, Snowy, Squally With "Wrong Way" Temperatures

Traffic cam of Route 2 on the Causeway between Milton
and South Hero looks windblown, as you can see
on the Lake Champlain ice next to the road. 

 A peaceful light snow was falling across much of Vermont early this morning, as expected. 

Of course, the roads are iffy with that snow, so once again, you'll need to take care driving to school or work.  Much like yesterday, after those early morning snow squalls we had, there's some school closings and quite a few delayed openings, so check your local listings.

Temperatures overnight went the wrong way, and that trend of weird temperature swings will continue for the next several days.  It'll seem like one moment it's frigid, the next balmy. For the next few days, it will be as if winter is really angry, keeps storming out of the room and then coming back in to yell, "OH, AND ANOTHER THING!"

That's life in a Vermont winter, I guess. 

TODAY

As the snow moved in overnight, temperatures slowly rose, instead of falling like they should before dawn. At daybreak, it was mostly in the teens, except low 20s west. So still kinda chilly this morning. 

Those temperatures keep rising for awhile this morning, peaking in the mid and upper 20s north and 30s south by around noon. 

At that point, things get more interesting. The storm is bringing an Arctic cold front with by very late morning or early afternoon. The result: Everybody in the state will face snow showers, blowing snow and crashing temperatures this afternoon. 

Snowing pretty hard this morning along Route 
105 in Berkshire, Vermont on this traffic cam

Similar to early Tuesday, such an abrupt cold front can create dangerous snow squalls. Tuesday's squalls focused o the north, and the weakened somewhat by the time they hit southern Vermont. 

Today will be different, with the squalls most likely in the south, mostly south of a line roughly from Middlebury to Wells River,  The National Weather Service in Burlington says they are less likely north of Route 2.   . 

It'll get gusty everywhere, with the strongest winds in the southern half of Vermont, so the blowing snow will probably be worse there. 

The snow showers will continue all day statewide into the early evening, so unlike your drive home Tuesday, today's will be tricky, too. 

Total predicted snowfall hasn't changed much since yesterday. Pretty much everybody gets two to five inches, including what already fell overnight. Most of the ski resorts should see at least six inches of new fluff.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY

Expected snowfall between this morning and 
Saturday morning. Doesn't include what we got
overnight, but does include predicted snowfall
today and Friday. 

We get a brief break in the snow, but it'll be cold.  We'll start out windy and nippy in the morning with temperatures within a few degrees of 0.  The wind will diminish as clouds increase during the day and it gets up to about 20 degrees, so better by afternoon.

Breaking the rules again, temperatures will keep heading slowly upward Thursday night instead of falling like they're supposed to. 

Friday, it'll be warm again with a little snow. Temperatures should get into the 30s.  The pattern this winter has been for light, fluffy snowfalls. Friday will be a little different. 

We probably won't get much snow, as current forecasts call for maybe one or two inches. But it'll be a wetter, heavier snow than we've gotten used to lately.  

The exact path of Friday's little event is still questionable, so expect some shifts in the forecast.

The temperature roller coaster will continue, though, as we go back in the deep freeze Saturday. (Highs in the low teens, morning readings within a couple degrees of zero. Sunday warms up again, and that continues on Monday when it might actually rain for awhile instead of snow. Then, next Tuesday, it gets pretty cold again. 

On and on it goes. 

Tuesday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Pretty Decent Dump In Mountains As Wide Temperature Swings Continue

This isn't saying much, but Wednesday could bring
Vermont and many surrounding areas the biggest
snow in weeks. Don't get too excited, as valleys should
see two to five inches, with up to eight inches up
in the Green Mountains. Western Adirondacks could
see up to a foot of new snow. 

Vermont and surrounding areas are about to get hit by the biggest snowfall in weeks, but don't worry this won't be a mega storm by any stretch of the imagination. But it does deserve a Tuesday evening update. 

The Alberta Clipper doesn't have huge amounts of moisture to work with, but it will be pretty damn efficient at grabbing what water it can from the atmosphere and dumping it on us as snow.

Roads will be iffy tomorrow and there could also be some problems with blowing snow and - once again - a few heavier snow squalls. 

THE DETAILS

In general, valleys can expect two to five inches of new snow, with locally more. Mountains will see several inches of new snow. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see many ski resorts in the Green Mountain State clock in with a good six inches of fresh fluff by later Wednesday night. 

The National Weather Service has posted a winter weather advisory for the entire length of the Green Mountains, with three to six inches expected. The advisory runs from later tonight into Wednesday evening. 

In the far southern Green Mountains in eastern Bennington and western Windham counties, there's a full fledged winter storm warning for an expected six to nine inches of snow, mainly above 1,500 feet in elevation. Gusty winds would blow the snow around too. 

The central and western Adirondacks and to an extent the White Mountains of New Hampshire look like they will be the big winners with this storm. Both those areas should see at least eight inches of snow, with some totals going over a foot in the western Adirondacks.

The water content of the snow will be low, so expect fluff. Melt the snow down, and you'll get the equivalent of a quarter to a half inch of rain for most of us, with a little less than that in the Champlain Valley.

The snow should start for most of us before dawn.  It'll be a light, steady snow for the first half of the day as temperatures climb into the 20s for most of us in the north, with 30s in the low elevations south. 

But during the afternoon, another sharp cold front comes in. That means more scattered heavier snow showers, maybe a snow squall here and there, blowing snow and temperatures once again heading toward the cellar.

So, you're going to deal with messy roads during the morning commute and afternoon one as well. The morning mess will be more widespread. Toward evening, most of the snow showers will be focused on the  Green Mountains and across much of northern Vermont. 

TEMPERATURE SWINGS

I'll get into more details in tomorrow mornings post, but the big up and down swings in temperature are going to keep going for at least the next week. 

If you like variety every day will be different for awhile. 

Thursday looks cold and blustery.  Friday looks warm enough at this point to get above freezing in some places, with rain drops mixing with snow showers. Then Saturday and Saturday night look damn cold, with highs near 10 and lows below zero. Sunday and Monday warm right back up again at least into the low 30s, then it's back to the icebox next Tuesday. 

California Rain Benefitted Greatly, But Not All That Much Rain Set Off Burn Area Debris Flows

To virtually everyone's relief in southern California, 
rain arrived as expected to tamp down those horrible
wildfires. The fires left the area prone to debris flow
in the rain, though, and some did in fact materialize.

 After going 262 days without any rain, showers finally blew through Los Angeles Sunday. 

The showers -which included small hail in some sections of the city and snow in the mountains - was a tremendous relief to everyone dealing with this month's wildfire nightmare in southern California. 

Though greatly beneficial, the rain, as expected in some ways continued the wildfire nightmare for some.

The rain storm hasn't been that big by southern California standards. Los Angeles just under an inch of rain from the weekend system. It was the first real rain the city has had since March 20.  

With the fires, that was enough to set off mudslides. One of the largest was in Topanga Canyon near the site of the big Palisades fire. 

Another mudslide poured down onto Mulholland Drive in Woodland Hills, trapping at least four vehicles in muck and rocks. A Los Angeles city fire truck also had to be pulled from the morass. 

This particular mudslide thankfully didn't damage any homes. 

A small section of the Pacific Coast Highway also had to be shut down due to mud and debris pouring onto the roadway. 

The rain obviously tamped down the fire and finally prevented new ones from starting, at least for now. The largest fires from this month are now almost entirely contained and are just barely smoldering in the damp conditions. 

Extended forecasts call for a few more chance of rain over the next couple of weeks.  Those extended forecasts lean slightly toward above normal precipitation in central and northern California and near normal in still much to dry southern California. 

Video

News station aerial view of one of the mudslides due to fire-denuded hills and the rain over the weekend. Click on this link to view, or of you see the image below, click on that

Heads Up Vermont: This Morning's Commute Might Be A Slog. Wednesday Might Not Be Much Better

National Weather Service radar at around 5 a.m. today.
The green is fairly heavy snow. That smudge of dark green
and yellow southeast of Burlington is an intense snow
squall. The purple outline depicts a snow squall
warning that was in effect at the time of this radar image.

A line of ferocious snow squalls swept southeastward through northern and central Vermont this morning, dropping a quick inch or two of snow and turning wet or slushy roads into ice skating rinks just in time for your drive to work this morning. 

The squalls will keep heading into southern Vermont by around 7 or 8 p.m., so that part of the state will deal with poor visibility and rapid changes in road conditions.

The squalls might weaken just a tad by the time they reach southern Vermont, but will still be dangerous. 

Meanwhile, the aftereffects of the squalls will be the main problem north of Route 4. Temperatures just after midnight were a little above freezing in many areas. The initial bits of snow just ahead of the snow squalls melted into water on many roads.

Then the snow squalls hit with rapidly falling temperatures and heavy, wind driven, blinding bursts of snow. That water on the roads froze, then snow fell on top of it.

The snow squalls were moving fast enough to only leave an inch or two of new snow in most areas, but that was more than enough to make the roads slick. 

I noticed road crews were out here in St. Albans shortly after the worst of the squall had passed and I'm sure that will be true everywhere else in Vermont.  But there's only so much they can do with crashing temperatures. 

Main roads might improve some through the morning commute, but they won't be entirely cleaned up.

Take it easy, take it slow early this morning. 

This Afternoon

The good news is the snow showers will be out of here this afternoon and roads should be in pretty good shape. Expect a cold day. As noted, we already had our high temperatures for the day. It'll stay in the teens all day if we're lucky and a stiff north wind will make it feel like it's below zero.

But there's no rest for the weary.  Tomorrow's trip to and from work won't be fun either.

Wednesday.

National Weather Service snowfall forecast through 
Thursday morning. Almost all the snow predicted is
from an Alberta clipper storm coming through on
Wednesday. Most of us can expect two to four
inches of fluff on of this one. 

We're on a temperature roller coaster as several quick weather systems come through with snow or even something else possible on Friday. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.  

The crash in temperatures will halt later this evening as an Alberta clipper comes in with clouds and snow. 

Alberta clippers are those fast moving storms that come in northwest to southeast from near Alberta, through or north of the Great Lakes then into our neck of the woods.  

Temperatures will moderate into the 20s tomorrow, but it will also snow pretty much all day. 

The snow will get here before dawn, and it will still be on the cold side in the morning. 

Even though the snow will be coming down lightly, it will still stick effectively to the roads. The plows will be out but it'll be a slow commute once again. The trip home in the evening will feature light snow, too, so even that won't be so great. 

Most of us can expect about two to four inches of fluff out of Wednesday's system, with a little more than that in the mountains. 

Behind this little snowfall, the temperatures will crash once again, getting down to near or even a little below zero by Thursday morning

Thursday And Beyond

The roller coaster continues big time. A break in the weather comes Thursday afternoon as sunshine returns (hopefully) and temperatures mostly stay in the teens. It looks like temperatures will actually start to rise overnight Thursday ahead of our next quick hitter. 

Friday is a wild card.  Another Alberta Clipper will be coming in from the west, while what was the rain storm that tamped down the Southern California wildfires lurks to our south and heads east toward the Atlantic Ocean,

The Friday Alberta clipper might suppress the wetter, southern storm to our south so that it misses us. Or, the clipper  might help draw the southern storm closer to us, giving us somewhat heavier precipitation.

 We don't know yet. Friday will probably be warmer again, possibly near freezing. But we don't know whether we'll see just a little snow and a few raindrops or a somewhat more substantial storm.

Watch this space for updates.

Then, once again, temperatures get frigid again Friday night and Saturday. Then, rinse and repeat as yet another Alberta Clipper comes in next Sunday and Monday with another modest warm up and probably another couple inches of snow. 

I did say in yesterday's post that the weather pattern around here was finally getting a little more exciting, and all this is your proof.