Tornado And Flood Tragedy In U.S. Off To A Bad Start, Three More Days Of This; In Vermont, Noisy But Not Destructive

Screen grab of a video showing a monster
tornado mowing through Lake City,
Arkansas. The tornado caused 
extensive damage. 

As expected, swarms of tornadoes strafed a large section of the nation's middle yesterday and overnight, spreading death and destruction across several states. 

That was only the beginning. More tornadoes are expected for the next three days. Worse, cataclysmic flooding is still in the cards for the Mid-South.

Here in Vermont, we've had our noisy overnight and early morning with mixed precipitation, bursts of heavy rain, strong wind gusts, thunder and lighting. 

For us here in the Green Mountain State, we can thank goodness the weather is at worst an inconvenience, not a disaster. 

With that, I'll get into the national picture and toward the end, update you on what's happening in Vermont. 

TORNADOES AND FLOODS

We're just getting toward early morning in the Midwest and South as I wrote this at 8 a.m., so as you'd imagine, assessments and casualty counts are incomplete yet. Many if not most of Wednesday's tornadoes hit after dark, so a full picture of what happened is incomplete.

We're already aware of three storm related deaths in Tennessee and a number of injuries. 

It appears at least some of the tornadoes were intense. Video taken from around Lake City Arkansas showed a large tornado with some horizontal funnels protruding from it. That's a tell-tale sign of a tornado that was probably of EF-4 strength, with winds of 166 to 200 mph. 

Adding to the potential evidence that this tornado was that strong, video taken after the twister shows houses completely leveled and vehicles strewn likely a fair distance from where they originated. 

We saw at least 22 reports of tornadoes yesterday and last night, and that number will almost certainly increase as storm paths and damage are assesses over the next few days. Tornado watches and warnings were still ongoing as dawn broke this morning in Tennessee and Kentucky.

Flooding is already breaking out, the start of what will be some of the worst flooding on record in parts of the Mid-South. Memphis has already had more than four inches of rain from last night, including 2.26 inches in just one hour. 

Things will get much worse before they get better

Tornado Outlook

Tornadoes are forecast to continue today, tomorrow and Saturday, with a particular emphasis on Arkansas, which as mentioned has already been hit hard by twisters.

Tornadoes, some possibly strong could form in central or southern Arkansas today.   On Friday, tornadoes, again some strong, could touch down nearly anywhere in Arkansas and surrounding states. 

More twisters are likely in and and near Arkansas Saturday. I

Flooding

The flooding will be even worse than the tornadoes. 

In addition to the downpours last night, another seven to as much as 15 inches of rain are in the forecast over the next four or five days for late sections of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois. 

Granted this is a repeat of what I reported yesterday.  But the flood event is only just beginning. You'll hear and see on the news incredible flash flooding. This is life threatening and will be easily one of the worst floods, if not the worst flood in the U.S. you'll see this year. 

I would say it could be almost on par with the extreme flooding we saw in western North Carolina and surrounding areas with Hurricane Helene last September. 

Flood watches already extend from northeast Texas through Ohio.   

A stalled weather front with intense moisture from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico feeding into it are responsible for all this horrible weather.  Things should finally get unstuck by Sunday, and the weather in the U.S. looks much calmer and much less dangerous next week. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The WCAX camera feed from the ECHO Center in Burlington
captured this lightning bolt early this morning. 

Those forecasts we heard last night of a noisy early Thursday morning sure came true. 

The wonderful thing is we're avoiding a disaster this time, even if the weather system affecting us are related to the ones causing the extreme weather in the middle of the nation. 

Our first salvo was overnight. The parent storm of the weather front that stalled across the Mid-South is noisily moving through.

This storm is a novelty more than anything else, since it brought us our first bout of lightning and thunder of the season early this morning. Most places in Vermont saw some lightning flashes and experienced rumbles of thunder. 

Some areas of eastern Vermont experienced thunder sleet and/or thunder freezing rain, which is pretty cool. 

Most of the mixed precipitation was over by 7 a.m., though a few lingering pockets of it might still be ongoing in a few cold Northeast Kingdom hollows.  There were a number of delayed school openings in eastern Vermont due to the overnight ice. 

Rainfall has been pretty heavy under the thunderstorms, but most of us should stay under an inch of new precipitation.  A few places that got bullseyed by thunderstorms might go over an inch. Burlington had received 0.7 inches of rain through 8 a.m. and it was still raining there.

Rivers were already running high prior to this rain, so we might end up with pockets of minor flooding here and there later today from the runoff. 

That would hit mostly in places with poor drainage.  Main stem rivers in Vermont will rise today, but we'll very likely avoid any real flooding from those. Hydrologists with the National Weather Service are keeping an eye on things. 

The storm in Vermont peaked generally between the hours of 2 and 8 a.m.  Most of the rain should be out of here by mid to late morning.  

The wind has been really cranking in parts of the Champlain Valley this morning, again, as expected.  On my hillside perch in St. Albans, I'd estimate some of the gusts have reached as high as 45 mph. 

So far, between the wind and lightning and the ice in eastern Vermont, there's only been a small smattering of power outages. Nothing widespread.

A wind advisory is still in effect for northwest Vermont until 8 this evening.  Winds in northwest Vermont might taper off a little for a few hours late this morning then start to crank from the southwest and west at speeds as high as 55 mph in gusts. Then things will calm down this evening. 

At least it will be warm. After the rain departs this morning temperatures should rocket upward well into the 60s in most of Vermont. Maybe upper 50s in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Stalled Front

That stalled weather front that is causing so much destruction in the Mid-Mississippi Valley will start to extend up into our neck of the woods this weekend. 

But up here, we'll miss out on the fire hose of moisture striking the Midwest flood zone. Instead, we'll see kind of a blah weekend with periods of rain. I suppose a little snow or mixed precipitation could mix in Saturday in high spots and maybe the Northeast Kingdom, but this will be rain. 

Early guesses are we'll get a half inch to an inch of rain. Enough to keep river flows pretty brisk, but very likely not enough to cause flooding. We'll watch this, though. There's always a chance this weekend's rain could over-perform. 

Doesn't look likely, but we'll see.  

Wednesday Evening Vermont Update: Rather Dramatic Storm Overnight, Early Thursday. Snow, Ice, Rain, Wind, Thunder

Skies darkening over St. Albans, Vermont late this
afternoon as we brace for a relatively short but
dramatic storm of snow, ice, wind, rain and probably
thunder. Things get better tomorrow late morning. 

The tornado warnings are popping like crazy in the Midwest and South as our anticipated big twister outbreak gets underway, followed by the epic, record flood event in parts of the nation's middle that we talked about this morning. 

Unfortunately, I think it's going to be a deadly and destructive few days, so our hearts go out to the many people who are going to be victims of this. 

I don't have much more to say about that right now as the those huge storms develop, so I'll focus this evening on our own little drama setting up in Vermont. 

It won't necessarily be deadly or super damaging, but it will be noticeable. 

VERMONT TONIGHT

In short, expect a relatively short lived, but rather dramatic storm in Vermont tonight and early Thursday. 

I hope you weren't planning on getting much sleep in the early morning hours between midnight and dawn. 

An impressive meteorological moment is setting the stage for a burst of snow, then a period of perhaps heavy sleet to rattle against your windows, then freezing rain in the eastern half of Vermont and finally rain. Some of that rain would come in the form of downpours that would roar on your roof.

In northwestern Vermont, high winds will howl with gusts in some areas pushing or exceeding 50 mph.

The pièce de rèsistance could well be loud thunder we might hear during all this weather chaos.  If it does thunder - and there's a decent chance of it - those rumbles and peals would be louder than you'd expect in a normal storm. 

The temperature inversion that will help create the sleet and freezing rain would  also deflect noise from thunder back down to the ground, onto us. 

The snow should arrive this evening, but quickly go over to a mix.  The atmosphere a few thousand feet overhead should warm remarkably quickly, gaining about 25 degrees - from subfreezing levels to well above freezing - with six or so hours. 

That'll drive the quick changeover from snow to ice. Especially since down here near the ground, things won't be able to warm quite as fast.

We're also starting from a somewhat colder temperature than what we thought earlier, so almost everybody gets a quick slug of snow. 

That will be followed by a period of sleet, which will also come down hard at times. Then, in western Vermont, we'll see a quick switch to freezing rain then rain. 

Over on the eastern half of the state, the freezing rain should hang on longer  Forecasters have actually increased the areas expecting near a quarter inch of ice. That's because the freezing rain will come down pretty torrentially at times, allowing for a quick accumulation. 

A few places might accumulate enough ice to create some power outages, but it won't be widespread. Northwest Vermont can expect a few outages as well, because of the strong winds overnight, and not so much the ice. 

There's plenty of lightning upstream with this system in Michigan, which is why the thinking is we'll have some thunderstorms, too. 

Like I said, this should be a quick hitter, so we're basically done with it by mid morning, maybe a bit later in the Northeast Kingdom.

Since the bulk of this mess is going by so fast, it won't have time to put down a tremendous amount of precipitation. Which means there's no flooding threat. 

THURSDAY

On paper, the storm shouldn't be over in the morning. You might expect a round of more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as a cold front approaches. But the air aloft will be too dry to really support that kind of thing, and there won't be enough instability to create the updrafts you need to produce storms. 

So we might end up with a few scattered showers, but not much else in the mild air that will engulf us tomorrow.  After a chilly Wednesday and our wintry, stormy night, it's back to spring tomorrow.  It'll get into the upper 50s to mid 60s. 

Winds will pick up again in the afternoon, this time from the west. Northwest Vermont, and some of the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts to 50 mph again for a few hours. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Friday is still looking nice enough, with highs in the , but the weekend still looks wet.  Most of us will just see rain Saturday and Sunday, but a few places in the mountains and Northeast Kingdom might see a little mixed precipitation.  

Very Scary Storm Day Underway For Large Parts Of Nation, Here In Vermont, Some Trouble Too

A severe weather outbreak with the risk of strong 
tornadoes is in the cards today. The area in pink and
dark red is the riskiest area. The same areas under
the tornado danger will also face severe flooding
this week. 

Today and the next few days will be among the most dangerous and potentially deadly weather days the United States has had all year.  

Up here in Vermont, things aren't nearly that dire, but we will have our own share of weather trouble. 

I'll start things off with how bad the national weather situation is, then get into what we will deal with in the Green Mountain State. 

Spoiler: Us Vermonters should consider ourselves damn lucky compared to many other areas of the U.S.

NATIONAL DANGER

When I opened the National Weather Service home page this  morning, the U.S. map already looked scary.

A tornado watch was already in effect in parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas and Arkansas, with a tornado warning or two thrown in. Flood watches covered a large area of the Midwest and South.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories stretched from  North Dakota, through the northern Great Lakes to northern New York and northern New England. 

This was just the beginning. Things will get a lot worse today. And stay really bad the rest of the week.

Tornadoes

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had declared a relatively rare high risk severe weather and tornado danger zone in the area where Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois come together.  This is an area with Memphis pretty much at the center A large substantial risk zones surrounded that area 

"Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3 plus tornadoes appear likely," the Storm Prediction Center wrote this morning. 

It's so bad that if I lived in a mobile home or other unsubstantial structure, I'd leave now before there are any watches or warnings. People in this area better be ready to get to their tornado shelters pretty damn quickly this afternoon and evening 

The very same region most at risk for destructive tornadoes today is also the epicenter of a terribly high risk of catastrophic deadly flooding over the next few day.

Extreme Floods 

Weather fronts associated with today's tornadoes will stall near the region until at least Saturday. Daily rainfall in a broad area centered near Memphis will range from three to six inches and possibly more in some spots. 

By tomorrow, another rare high risk zone has been declared in Memphis and the surrounding adjacent states: This is a high risk zone for flooding, issued by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. This means that terrible damage is pretty much inevitable. Even places that have never flooded before are at risk for inundation. 

The National Weather Service office in Memphis is already calling this a "historical rainfall event."

I brought up this flood risk in a post yesterday. If anything, expected rainfall totals might even go a bit higher than the foot or more I mentioned in the previous post.  This will be an ongoing thing starting today and going into next week. 

Even after the rain stops by Sunday, rivers in the region will be building toward potential record crests.

If possible, people who live in low lying areas in broad zone from roughly near Little Rock, Arkansas to Cincinnati, Ohio should be getting ready to leave, and if possible, moving possessions out. 

This whole thing will probably be yet another weather disaster costing $1 billion or more. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The National Weather Service ice forecast map shows
widespread ice in central and eastern Vermont. It
won't be enough to cause widespread power outages
but will cause some icy road conditions. 

Unlike all those other areas, Vermont is not headed toward a full-fledged disaster,  But there are several things that will keep us on our toes the next few days.

We've got snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, high winds, quick temperature changes and even thunder to contend with.  

The winter weather advisory that was in effect for just the Northeast Kingdom has now been expanded to include all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley and the western half of Rutland County. 

It'll cloud up pretty quickly today. Though temperatures will get well above freezing today, they'll crash temporarily with the onset of precipitation toward dark. So, we'll get a burst of snow this evening and tonight. 

Even in those areas with no winter weather advisory, that burst of snow and sleet overnight will make the roads quickly get slush and snow covered and slippery overnight. 

The Champlain Valley in particular is in for a noisy overnight and early morning. The snow should go over to rain after leaving maybe a dusting to 1.5 inches of snow. But the winds will really pick up.

A wind advisory has been posted for overnight in much of the Champlain Valley as gusts could go as high as 55 mph in hours before dawn. That could be enough for a few branches to come down, and maybe a couple power lines, too.  

During all that wind, the rain could come down pretty heavily at times and some rumbles of thunder could mix in with all this. 

Meanwhile, in eastern Vermont, the warmer air will have a harder time moving in.  The initial burst of snow will give way to another batch of freezing rain overnight and early Thursday. Between the initial wet snow, the freezing rain and some winds, there might be isolated power outages there, too, but nothing widespread. 

The main threat through the early part of the Thursday morning commute will be icy roads. 

The rain should taper off in the morning as temperatures rocket upward into the 50s east, 60s west during the day. The afternoon shouldn't actually be all that bad. 

Except: That wind advisory in especially the northern Champlain Valley will still be in effect. We expect another burst of winds, this time from the west, in the late afternoon and evening. That could cause a slight smattering of new power outages and a few more downed tree branches.

NEXT STORM

Friday looks nice, then the weekend, not so much. We'll get the tail end of that horrible flood I mentioned that's going to take place in the mid-South this weekend. 

No flooding for us, but the remnants of that system will swing several waves of low pressure our way. That'll be enough to set off some occasional rain all weekend. 

There could be a little snow and sleet at the onset of the new precipitation on Saturday, but this should be mostly rain.  It doesn't look like it will rain hard enough to set off any flooding worries. 

Beyond Sunday, the weather will turn colder.   Hard to say if there will be much precipitation in that colder air, but we'll at least see some snow showers, or cold rain showers.  There's a slight chance a stronger storm or two could form along the coast to bring extra snow during next week, but so far, the risk of that happening looks pretty damn low, which is great news. 

 

Yes, More Vermont Winter Weather On The Way

Yep! Another ice forecast map from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington. This time, at least
the ice shouldn't be thick enough to cause more than a
few widely scattered power outages in the NEK

 Just a quick update this evening to acknowledge that yes, there's another winter weather advisory up for parts of Vermont. 

I'll keep it brief this evening. 

That new storm will swing a batch of snow into most of Vermont Wednesday evening. That will quickly go over the freezing rain again overnight. 

In most of southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley, the freezing rain won't last all that long as temperatures overnight keep warming up. The freezing rain might not even materialize in some spots in the Champlain Valley. 

The Northeast Kingdom will hold on to the cold air, though, so the freezing rain could keep going all night and into early Thursday. At the very least the roads up that way will be nasty in many spots overnight Wednesday and for the early morning commute. 

The worst hit places could accumulate up to a quarter inch of ice. That might set off some isolated tree damage and widely scattered power outages, but nothing like parts of central and southern Vermont endured over the weekend. 

Everybody will be in the rain Thursday, though that rain will be tapering off through the morning. It will be another warm day, kind of like how Monday quickly warmed up.

This storm is looking pretty windy, too.  So far there's no wind advisories up, but it could get pretty gusty overnight Wednesday.  Forecasters are watching for the possibility of even strong southwest to west winds Thursday afternoon. That's when you might see possible wind advisories popping up. 

The storm, though on the strong side, is moving fast, so it won't have a chance to dump a ridiculous amount of precipitation on us. Rainfall won't be enough to cause any flooding issues. 

Unlike last night, there won't be an immediate rush of cold air behind the storm. Friday actually looks nice and springlike. There will be at least some sun and temperatures should reach the 50s. 

The upcoming weekend looks rainy, with a slight chance of - UGH - maybe a little ice in some spots. 

I'll have much more on this tomorrow morning, but there's your update for now.

Yet Another Big Flood Disaster Looms In Kentucky, Surrounding Areas This Week

You're going to be reading about another big, deadly U.S. weather disaster this week. 

Precipitation forecast for the next seven days in the
U.S. That huge blob in the middle is where flooding
is expected this week, Area in brown and yellow in
the middle are where are least seven inches and a much
a 15 inches is expected by Sunday.

Catastrophic flooding hit areas of Kentucky and surrounding areas back in February, and some of the same areas are in for another big flood calamity this week. 

Torrential rains are in the forecast for the same general area daily Wednesday through Thursday.  Some areas in a zone from Arkansas to Kentucky could see more than a foot of rain. 

Even worse, at least part of the flood event will be accompanied by severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Some of those tornadoes could be intense and long lasting. 

THE TORNADOES

The focus tonight is mostly on Kansas and Oklahoma and parts of western Missouri. This area in the heart of tornado alley is at risk of tornadoes from now well into tonight. 

On Wednesday, the severe weather will become much more widespread,. running from the southern Great Lakes all the way down to northeastern Texas. 

The biggest threat for strong tornadoes will run from Arkansas up through the Memphis area and to southern Illinois, Indiana and eastern Kentucky.  Those are the precise areas that will probably suffer the worst flooding in the coming days. 

The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will continue daily beyond that Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 

By the way it has already been a stormy few days. At least 29 tornadoes have been counted so far from Sunday and Monday, mostly in the Midwest, along with hundreds of reports of strong thunderstorm winds and large hail 

THE FLOODING

A weather front will essentially stall in the mid-South as huge amounts of moisture feed into the system from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  Waters there are warmer than average, which means evaporation is higher. That means incredible amounts of moisture can be transported to places like Memphis and Jonesboro, Arkansas, which will unleash incredible torrents

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center:

"This setup is shaping up to be a more extreme flooding scenario considering the multi-day prospects and forecasted.....rainfall totals reach 10-15+ inches in the hardest hit locations."

Local weather offices in the region are warning people of a "generational" flood with record amounts of rain and record high waters. Intense downpours will create instant flash floods.  

This will be another tragic event in a place in the U.S. that doesn't need more of this crap. 

Vermont March Weather: Warm And Weird

A warm March sent daffodil shoots growing much
earlier than normal in Vermont this year. This new
spring greenery had to endure occasional wintry
setbacks, as seen here on March 21. That state
of affairs will continue into April. 

 Well, we got through another month, so it's time to look back at our overall Vermont weather in March, which, as you might have noticed was weird. And warm. 

MARCH TEMPERATURES

Burlington came in with a mean temperature for the month of 38.0 degrees. That puts us in a three way tie with 2010 and 1902 for the sixth warmest March on record. 

It's also the sixth time in a year a month in Burlington was in the top ten warmest list. 

This March was even warmer than the one a year ago, in 2024 which was merely the seventh warmest on record. Yeah, we've had a lot of hot Marches lately. A lot of hot months and years, actually, thanks to climate change. 

The entire rest of Vermont was much warmer than average in March, too. But figures are incomplete, as I noticed missing data on a few days from several of our regular long standing weather stations like Rutland and St. Johnsbury. 

The warmest March day in Burlington was 72 on the 19th and 20th.  This makes March, 2025 one of only 11 Marches in the past 140 years or so to get that warm.  It was not close to the hottest March day on record, though. It was 84 degrees in both March, 1946 and March, 1998.

Rapid snowmelt and some rain led to widespread, but minor flooding across Vermont around St. Patrick's Day. 

You could see the effects of such a mild March by the unusually early signs of spring. Crocuses were blooming by mid-month in a few locations. Green daffodil shoots poked up all through the second half of the month. The sound of returning red wing blackbirds filled the air in marshy areas way earlier in the month than usual. I even had a report of two of people in southern Vermont hearing spring peepers yesterday. That's really early for the season. 

Burlington had its final zero degree reading of the season on March 3. That meant nine days this past winter got to zero or below.  Historically we'd have roughly 20 or more such days per winter, so the downward trend in very cold days continues. 

MARCH PRECIPITATION

It was a little wetter than average virtually everywhere in Vermont in March, which is a good thing since we still have lingering effects from last autumn's drought. 

Precipitation wasn't overwhelming, though, as Burlington had 2.81 inches of rain and melted snow and ice. That's just a little over half an inch above average. By my count, Burlington had its 37th wettest March on record, so not all that impressive.

Precipitation around the state was similarly above average, but not to an extreme extent. 

Winter this March was notably absent until the end of the month. Early in the month, the summit of Mount Mansfield did have its highest snow depth since at least 2019.

But in most of Vermont aside from high elevations, very little snow fell into the end of the month. 

As we just saw, the last weekend of the month brought a big thump of five to nine inches of snow to the north, and a quite damaging ice storm to parts of central and southern Vermont.   

The snow and ice melted quickly during another very warm final day of March, though as of early yesterday, there was still 89 inches of snow near the Mount Mansfield summit. 

APRIL OUTLOOK

April is often regarded as a cruel month, as you think spring is coming, but you always end up getting slapped in the face with winter. 

That's no different this year. 

Today will be much colder than yesterday as many of us won't get out of the 30s. 

And, of course, Wednesday night, we're in for yet another round of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Though it won't be as bad as the last one, eastern Vermont in particular will likely see a glaze of ice, slick roads, and maybe an isolated power outage or two by early Thursday. 

The precipitation should change to rain on Thursday. 

Long range forecasts also call for mostly chillier than normal weather around here through at least the first half of April. We shall see. 

Even if it's a cool April, the forces of spring will win out. Normal temporaries rise rapidly. Today, the normal high temperature in Burlington is 48 degrees and the low is 30. By April 30, the normal high and low temperatures are 63 and 42 degrees.

You're going to see a much greener Vermont landscape by the end of the month compared to what it looks like now. 

Ominous Stat: Arctic Sea Ice Extent Way Under-Performed This Winter And Set A Bad Record

The winter "maximum" sea ice extent in the Arctic was
the lowest on record this year. That's an ominous sign for 
more climate change coming down the pike.

 It's official.

The extent of Arctic sea ice, which normally reaches its peak in March, was pretty pathetic this year. 

It's a sign climate change continues unabated, and it's a factor that could help accelerate the problem. 

First, the immediate issue at hand, per the Washington Post:

 "Just 5.53 million square miles of ice had formed as of March 22 this year - the smallest maximum extent in the 47-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Since then the ice has already begun to melt again."

WaPo goes on:

"The record comes age a grim time for ice in all corners of the globe. In Antarctica, which has historically been more isolated from the effects of human-causing warming, sea ice shrank this month to the second lowest extent on record.  Research published in the journal Nature in February found that Earth's glaciers are dwindling at an accelerating rate,"

Back up there in the Arctic, this year's maximum ice extent was 31,000 square miles smaller than the previous record. That 31,000 square miles is about the same size as South Carolina. 

The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the globe. This winter was a classic example. Some areas of the far north were as much as 22 degrees Fahrenheit above average, which helps explain why Arctic ice didn't freeze as it should have

When there's less sea ice, the Arctic can warm even faster. More ice means when the sun shines on those gleaming white surfaces, bouncing the sun's heat back up into space.

When there's blue open water instead of ice up there in the Arctic, the sun's warmth is absorbed by that water Or as WaPo explains:

"With so little sea ice in the Arctic this year, more sunlight will be able to reach the open ocean, which absorbs more than 90 percent of the radiation that hits it. This will further warm the region, accelerating ice melt and exposing even more water to the light."

That's known as a feedback loop. Arctic ice melts because of climate change. That allows more heat to come in, melting even more ice and accelerating climate change even more. 

As I always like to say, what goes on the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.  

Sure, the lack of ice makes the Arctic melt even faster, but the warming effect does to an extent spread all over the world. It would just make our recent spate of record and near record hot years just keep going and going, like some torrid, evil Energizer Bunny.  

A lack of ice in the Arctic won't in itself make sea levels rise. As you've probably heard me say before. If the ice cubes in your glass of gin and tonic melt, it won't make the glass overflow. But the Arctic heat that might last through the summer can bleed on over to the Greenland ice cap, which is above sea level. The more that ice cap melts, the higher sea levels go. 

One Last Round Of Rain With Our Vermont Storm As We Get Ready For Yet Another One

The Killington, Vermont Police Department posted
this photo of a downed utility pole and wires blocking
a road in the resort town after Sunday's ice storm. 

Today's Day 3 of our long Vermont storm that really started Friday night. 

The great news is today will be the easiest of the three days by far.  

We're still suffering the hangover from Sunday's ice. 

All night and into early this morning, the number of homes and businesses still without electricity in Vermont stayed stubbornly above 5,000, after peaking art around 10,000 yesterday. 

Bottom line: Today's not a perfect weather day of course, but those are kind of rare this time of year anyway. 

Temperatures are warming up, and we should make it into the 60s today for a brief break from our wintry mess.  

The remaining snow and ice from the weekend should disappear for most of us pretty quickly today, it it hasn't already. Here in St. Albans, we had about six inches of new snow Saturday morning. Less than 48 hours, when I got up this morning and looked out the window, you'd never we ever had any snow. 

There is a few changes to the forecast. For most of us, the expected line of showers should come through Vermont in the morning and early afternoon, though there might be some showers behind that line.  

Earlier, we thought the bulk of the showers would be later this afternoon, but things have sped up a bit. 

Our showers might be briefly heavy with a slight chance you'll hear a rumble of thunder or two. But any heavy rain won't last long in any one place.  

We should have a half inch or less of rain today. Between the lingering rain and the snow and ice melt, the rivers should rise, as we've been saying all along. But if any flooding happens, it will be minor. 

QUICK WINTER RETURN

What had been six inches of snow was seen rapidly
melting off my St. Albans, Vermont driveway 
Sunday afternoon as temperatures rose above 
freezing and rain continued. 

If you thought we were done with winter weather after this past weekend, think again.  First of all, our current storm's cold front will drop us below freezing by Tuesday morning, and most of us won't even make it to 40 degrees Tuesday afternoon. 

By Wednesday morning, most of us will be in the teens, and there could be some single number temperatures in the cold hollows.

Following that is our next storm. With the cold air lingering at first, another round of snow, sleet and freezing rain (sigh!) seems likely Wednesday night. 

The snow probably won't amount to much.  The freezing rain won't accumulate nearly as much ice as the last storm did, so we won't face power outages and tree damage again. 

But, if you're on the roads Wednesday night, you'll probably encounter crappy driving conditions. Things should go over to rain Thursday as we get another squirt of mild air. 

At least the next storm's effects won't be nearly as bad in Vermont as in other places. This next storm is forecast to produce another large severe storm and tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. 

This storm, and a weather front associated with this storm that is expected to stall, looks like it might cause another round of serious flooding in parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas.

Back here in Vermont, don't count on winter ending even after we get through Wednesday night's schmutz. Signs are pointing toward a week long spell of wintry cold and maybe occasional snow starting in about seven days from now. 

Those long range forecasts aren't always right, but the ones I've been seeing have been pretty consistent, so there's that.  

Ice Storm Pretty Much Over In Vermont, Temperatures To Bounce All Over The Place. Still A Minor Flood Risk

Chair lift at Killington Resort coated in ice
today. The resort had to close due to
damage from this morning's ice storm,
but is expected to reopen Monday. 

 As of late Sunday afternoon we can say Hurray!

That's because all winter weather warnings and advisories in Vermont have been dropped. 

Except for maybe some small isolated areas in eastern parts of the state, the freezing rain is over. It hasn't been a nice Sunday afternoon - raw, sometimes rainy, overcast and in the Champlain Valley getting a little windy. But the ice problem is over.

Except the cleanup of course.

It seems like Rutland and Windsor counties, and areas immediately to the north and south of those counties suffered the bulk of the ice issues.

The number of homes and businesses without power in Vermont held roughly steady in the 11,000 range from around 8:30 this morning to mid-afternoon, but were starting to decline late this afternoon, vtoutages.org indicated.

If I had to pick a town that suffered the worst, I'd say Killington. They still had the most outages of any community in Vermont

The gigantic Killington Resort was forced to shut down Sunday. Power was out at much of the resort. Trees along the roads leading to the resort  were collapsing, and blocking traffic. "Trees are continuing to fall around the mountain and trails are beginning to refreeze, creating unsafe conditions for guests and staff," the resort said in a statement. 

Killington expects to reopen for business tomorrow.  At least it will be warm for skiers.

TONIGHT/MONDAY

For most places, the temperature will actually slowly continue to warm overnight. We'll occasionally be harassed by showers, but they won't amount to much, really.

Monday continues to look quite mild, and windy in the Champlain Valley. Most of us valley dwellers should see temperatures reach the low to mid 60s, a huge change from this weekend. Most of the day will feature just scattered showers. 

During the mid to late afternoon a line or broken line of briefly heavy showers and even some thunderstorms will come through Vermont. (This will be the relatively harmless northern extension of a severe weather outbreak expected up and down the East Coast tomorrow).

Any heavy rainfall will be brief. We've already seen the heaviest precipitation with this storm, so we won't have much addition. However, between the melting snow and ice, plus whatever rain we get, I still expect minor flooding Monday and into Tuesday on some Vermont rivers, or at least something close to it. 

Don't worry about major flooding, though.

BEYOND MONDAY, NEW STORM?

We're still looking at a BIG temperature crash Monday night behind the cold front as lows get into the 20s and highs just make it into the 30s Tuesday. 

That sets the stage for the next storm, which frankly still looks similar to the one we had this weekend. 

Lingering cold air will mean the next storm Wednesday night. It's looking like we will once again start off with snow and freezing rain. Before you get too scared, it won't be as bad as this weekend. Probably enough to mess up the roads, but that's it. 

And it will quickly go over to rain by Thursday. 

There's still not a lot of details on the next storm to share. We'll get updates as we get closer.

But I will depress you with one other bit of news. Long range forecasts call for a series of sharp, wintry cold snaps here in Vermont during the first half of April. I hope that's wrong, but I'm throwing that out there! 

Storm That Gave Us Ice In Vermont Is Even More Dangerous And Weird Elsewhere And There's Going To Be A Second Big Storm

That huge orange and yellow area in the middle of the 
nation represents a vast area subject to severe 
thunderstorms and tornadoes today. 

 Sure, it's been miserable in Vermont with this weekend's storm with snow, damaging ice, cold rain and yuck.  

This storm is also causing other problems far and wide.  The worst part of this storm is the severe storm and tornado outbreak that's about to unfold

SEVERE WEATHER

A remarkably huge area of the nation is under threat from damaging thunderstorm winds, huge hail and tornadoes today.  And some of the tornadoes could end up being strong. 

The risk zone today goes from western New York and extreme southern Ontario all the way to the Gulf Coast It also extends from Missouri and Illinois all the way to the western Appalachians. 

This whole area is under the gun from later this morning through tonight for those lines of severe storms and tornadoes.  The highest risk zone for those tornados is in the mid-Mississippi valley, including western Kentucky and Tennessee, eastern Missouri and Arkansas and the northern half of Alabama.

MORE STORMS MONDAY

The severe weather and tornadoes continue tomorrow. This time it will be up and down the East Coast from the eastern Gulf Coast all the way up to New York. 

The greatest risk of tornados runs from Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida and Virginia. A marginal risk of storms with gusty winds extends as far north as southwestern Vermont. 

The severe threat will not be over once the storm departs later Monday, the threat of tornadoes doesn't end. 

ICE STORM

Damage from last night's ice storm in Ontario

It wasn't just us in Vermont that suffered damage from the weight of ice on trees and power lines. 

This storm spread freezing rain far and wide in a band from Wisconsin and northern Michigan, through southern Ontario, across northern New York and into northern New England. 

Residents of northern Michigan were told to shelter in place inside their homes due to the danger of falling and collapsing trees outdoors. 

About 225,000 thousand Ontario residents were without power because of the storm. 

In Michigan, 150,000 people were without power because of the ice this morning. Another 62,000 or so had no electricity in Wisconsin. 

WEIRD TEMPERATURES

The storm set up an extreme and weird temperature contrast in the Northeast on Saturday. 

 At 4 p.m. Saturday, it was 35 degrees in Boston with a little light snow. In New York City's Central Park, it was partly sunny and 80 degrees. 

The weather front dividing the two extremes moved southwestward into the New York City and New Jersey areas yesterday evening.  At 5 p.m. the front had passed through LaGuardia airport east of Manhattan and the temperature there was 51 degrees Also at 5 p.m. the front hadn't reached Central Park in Manhattan yet, so it was still 79 degrees there. 

However, an hour later, at 6 p.m. it was down to 53 in Central Park. 

NEW STORM 

A big new storm is forecast to develop in Colorado Tuesday and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. 

A widespread severe storm and tornado outbreak is forecast to hit the same areas being hit today.  No rest of the weary!

Sunday Vermont Icy Storm Update: A Slow Shift To Thawing Today, But.........

Green Mountain Power shared this photo of icy trees
in Hubbardton, Vermont yesterday. The ice grew
thicker in many areas overnight with more freezing rain
and power outages are widespread in central Vermont

 Our area of freezing rain moved northward through Vermont overnight and this morning as expected, increasing power outages, making more trees sag and in some cases break, and just making things  miserable. 

Meanwhile, this storm is also causing other types of very dangerous, and very weird weather elsewhere in the nation. We also have a brand new storm to talk about for later in this week.

 I'll have more on that interesting stuff later this morning in a separate post. (I don't want to make this one too long and muddled).  

Busy, busy times in the weather department!

THIS MORNING

As expected, the ice out there this morning is pretty patchy.  As of dawn, we were starting a slow climb to above freezing temperatures, and some of us were there already. 

Places like Burlington and Rutland and Springfield were barely above freezing as of 7 a.m. But surely, within just miles of those weather stations, the rain was still freezing in sub-32 degree temperatures. 

If it's above freezing at your house when you read this, you're probably safe from more icing. But some unlucky places especially from the Green Mountains east could endure more freezing rain through the morning and possibly into the afternoon.

Also, as expected, power outages increased dramatically in the wee hours of the morning and continuing after dawn. As of 8:15 a.m. the trend line in power outages was still up, with more than 10,000 Vermont homes and businesses without power.  

Almost all the outages so far have been very roughly within 25 miles either side of Route 4 all the way fro Fair Haven to White River Junction. That makes sense, as this general area was expected to see the thickest ice accumulation. 

Scattered outages might well spread north east of the Green Mountains as rain continues to freeze to the trees and wires all the way to the Canadian border. I don't expect the outages to be super widespread as you head way north, as the ice accumulation won't get into the danger zone in most places. Just a few.

In the immediate Champlain Valley, the ice from overnight is pretty much over.  I noticed a thin glaze of ice on the trees here at my house in St. Albans, Vermont. But as of  7:30 a.m. the temperature here was at 34 degrees, so we're getting no more ice accumulation.  Melting snow was once again sliding off the roof.

Good riddance to the 5.9 inches of snow we received yesterday, frankly.    

REST OF TODAY

Traffic camera image from Route 100 in Ludlow shows
icy trees along the highway this morning. 

As we go along, the rain will tend to get more showery and scattered, but of course it still won't be a nice day. Lingering freezing rain will be very patchy. 

You'll be driving down a wet road with no noticeable ice on the trees, and suddenly, less than a mile down the road, the pavement is icy and the roadside trees are sagging under the weight of that ice.

Ice storm and winter storm warnings were in effect for most of Vermont early this morning. You'll probably see the National Weather Service in South Burlington remove these alerts piecemeal through the day as the ice danger slowly diminishes. 

High temperatures today will actually come tonight.  Readings will crawl upward through the 30s this afternoon, reaching the low 40s in the Champlain Valley and warmer western valleys by dark.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb overnight tonight.

MONDAY

We're still looking at a big but brief surge of very mild air on Monday. Highs will reach well into the 50s with many of us getting pretty decently into the 60s.

The wintry, snowy, ice scenes of today in central and northern Vermont will quickly revert back to our early spring muddy, bare ground.

Continued showers, along with the rapidly melting snow and ice, should get the rivers and streams across Vermont rushing again.  I can certainly see how this could cause some minor flooding, but all indications are we will thankfully escape anything serious. 

At least some of our "usual suspect" Vermont rivers look like they'll reach flood stage on Monday. Current forecasts have the Mad River at Moretown cresting at half a foot above minor flood stage on Monday. The Otter Creek at Center Rutland should be getting pretty close to minor flood stage late Monday or early Tuesday. 

It also looks like the Winooski River at Essex Junction will be very close to minor flood stage by Tuesday.  

So be aware the next couple of days. Some roads right near Vermont's rivers might be closed or at least covered in water.   But we certainly don't have to worry about yet another big flood disaster in Vermont with this storm. We've had enough, thank you.  

A cold front will be approaching Monday afternoon, and there might well be some heavy showers along it, and perhaps a thunderstorm, too. 

AFTER MONDAY

Monday night, it's back to winter as the cold front will bring us back down into the 20s by first thing Tuesday morning.  There might be some icy patches on the roads Tuesday morning from the freeze. But at least the precipitation will be gone. 

It'll only get into the 30s Tuesday afternoon, so pretty chilly for this time of year. Wednesday will be a little warmer, in anticipation of a storm toward Wednesday night and Thursday that might have some similarities to the one we're having now. 

The big difference will be that if there is any snow or ice, it won't be nearly as much as we had this weekend.  That new storm will probably also give us another very brief warmup and a decent shot of additional rain. 

We'll have more details on that when we get closer to the event.  

 

Saturday Evening Vermont Winter Storm Update: Ominous Ice Storm Forecast For Parts Of Central, Southern Parts Of State

Ice accumulation forecast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington. This combines what's already'
happened plus what's going. Areas in dark red, and
especially lavender risk extensive tree and power line
damage between now and Sunday. 

The headline this Saturday evening is that I'm definitely worried about the additional freezing rain coming up tonight and early tomorrow for parts of central and southern Vermont. 

An ice storm warning is now up for most of central and southern Vermont through 8 p.m. Sunday. Expect very difficult travel - and much worse - likely pretty extensive tree and power line damage in some spots. 

There's much more to talk about regarding the ice, but let's set the table with how today went. 

Northern areas got the expected break. Once we got past 9 a.m. it was just light snow and flurries with no additional accumulation.  

The big winner in the accumulation sweepstakes was Fletcher, with 10 inches. Johnson and South Hero had 8.8 inches. Burlington managed to tie today's daily record with 1954 for most snow on March 29 with 7.0 inches. 

People near the Canadian border could actually see brighter skies just to the north late this afternoon.  That does not mean the storm is over by any stretch of the imagination, but it's a break.

Road conditions across the north that were atrocious this morning and pretty good late this afternoon.  They'll get worse again later, but we'll get to that. 

OMINOUS ICE STORM

In parts of central and southern Vermont a few places already have a quarter to nearly a half inch of ice clinging to trees and power lines.

Power outages haven't been too bad - yet.  All day, they've varied from near 100 homes and businesses without power to roughly 1,000.

I do think things will get much worse overnight.  

As of 5:30 p.m. some renewed rain and areas of freezing rain were beginning to move back into far southern Vermont. That will spread northward overnight. 

It's a complex temperature profile, so some places in the ice storm warning zone will only get a little freezing rain. Other spots will get a ton.  And it will be incredibly variable.  One area might be relatively OK, while a spot a couple miles up the road and a couple hundred feet higher or lower in elevation are absolutely slammed.

This is actually very typical of ice storms in mountainous places in Vermont. We saw this kind of thing in the Great Ice Storm of 1998. I remember in that storm driving  up the hill on Interstate 89 between Richmond and Williston. 

Halfway up the hill, it went from no ice on trees, to trees collapsing in a sharp line. Hardly no transition zone. 

Our current ice storm won't be nearly as bad as 1998, but definitely bad enough. 

ICE ACCUMULATION

Ice visible clinging to trees this afternoon in this traffic
cam grab from Hartford, Vermont. Much more ice is possible
tonight and that could cause some serious power
outages and tree damage.

In general, though, expected ice accumulations have gone up dramatically. The biggest worry zone is along and east of the Green Mountains in Rutland and Windsor counties. 

And extending south a little into corners of Windham and Bennington counties and north into some pockets of Addison and Orange counties. 

Between the ice on the trees now and what will hit tonight, everything in some spots by Sunday morning will probably be weighed down by a half inch to as much as an inch of ice in the worst hit areas.

I feel sorry for anybody who has a sugarbush or prized trees in the worst hit areas. If the forecast comes true, the damage will be extensive. 

The power outages might  be hard to fix, too, since there will probably be so much damage. Charge your devices now, those of you living in the ice storm warning zone. 

The precipitation will hit northern Vermont again, too, later tonight and Sunday. It'll likely start off as snow and then go over the freezing rain. There won't be much additional snow, maybe an inch or so. 

Places along and east of the Green Mountains in the northern half of the state will see up to a quarter inch of ice, which would cause some scattered power outages, but nothing like we expect further south.

The Champlain Valley will see a glaze of ice by early Sunday, too, but I don't think it will be enough to cause problems, other than dangerous road conditions. 

As chilly temperatures slowly relax Sunday, any freezing rain will change to a cold rain. But in areas protected from any warming winds will hang on to more icing well into the afternoon. Luckily rainfall rates will decrease noticeably in the afternoon.

MONDAY

This still isn't the biggest deal of this storm, but we're still expecting a brief squirt of very warm, humid for the season air on Monday. Most of us will reach the 50s and 60s. Showers will continue, and as a cold front approaches in the afternoon, heavy showers and even a few thunderstorms look like they'll develop. 

Flooding from melting snow and ice and the warm temperatures and the rain still looks like it will be minor, but we'll have to keep watching this. If rain ends up being heavier than expected, the flood situation could worsen.

I'm not too worried about that now, but it is worth monitoring. 

Ugly Vermont Winter Storm Is Here, Playing Out As Expected So Far, Some New Nuances To Forecast, Dangerous Ice Central Vermont

The latest National Weather Service ice accumulation
forecast map is the most worrying about this storm,
Red areas are at risk for some power outage. If you
click on the map and make it bigger, you see areas of
darker red in southern Vermont. That's where ice
could accumulate to at least a half inch, which
can cause a lot of damage to power lines. 

 As of dawn, our early spring winter storm here in Vermont is playing out pretty much as expected.

Which is actually a little surprising given how easily the forecast could have been wrong.  Subtle shifts in the position of the the weather front would make a big difference. 

It's been all snow roughly north of Route 2. There will be very little ice up there today. Accumulations so far include 9 inches in Jeffersonville 8 inches in Fairfax, Georgia and Westford and 7 inches in Morrisville.

Here in St. Albans, Vermont I had 5.8 inches of new snow as of 7:30 this morning. 

Snow was tapering off north, so it looks like the forecast of five to nine inches was pretty accurate.

The record for the most snow in Burlington today today is 7.0 inches in 1954. It's iffy as to whether they'll get there. 

There's already freezing rain in a band across central Vermont, and that's the area I'm most worried about. Between what happens today and then again tonight and early Sunday, some areas in the central and southern Green Mountains risk a lot of tree and power line damage from this storm.

Green Mountain Power tells us they have a full crew on deck ready to help restore power, and they're getting some help on standby from other areas as well. 

I noticed as of 7 a.m. Vermont traffic cameras showed trees along Route 7 in Brandon, Route 4 on Mendon Mountain and Interstate 89 near Bethel and along Interstate 91 in southeastern Vermont  beginning to sag under the weight of ice from freezing rain. 

Traffic cam image from Route 103 in Mount Holly, Vermont
shows freezing rain already accumulating on 
trees and power lines. 

The ice looked especially nasty in the trees and utility wires along Route 103 in Mount Holly. 

There were already some outages as of 7:30 this morning, amounting to about 1,000 customers, mostly around Brandon and Leicester.   

Far southern Vermont was getting rain or nothing at all early this morning. 

Needless to say, road conditions in central and northern Vermont are atrocious this morning. 

THE REST OF TODAY

Near and north of Route 2, the main action at least for now was this morning. The worst of the snow for today is over up there. It looks like those areas will get a bit of a break this afternoon and evening. 

A weak wave of low pressure riding along the stalled west to east weather front will go by to our east, and the front will slowly start to sink southward. Both those facts mean the heavy snow this morning will turn into just cloudy skies and maybe a little patchy light snow or freezing drizzle at times.

The fact the break will happen during the day is good. The strong spring sun should work through the clouds a bit. It won't melt all that snow we got early today, but it will at least help road crews get the highways in better shape. It might even briefly get above freezing in spots. 

Precipitation should continue today in central and southern Vermont, but even there, it will be lighter than it is this morning. Still, a little more freezing rain will continue to slowly weigh down trees and power lines in some spots. 

By late afternoon, most of the precipitation will be focused in far southern Vermont. 

After that, the front will stall again, then slowly start to lift northward again

TONIGHT

As the front slowly goes north, rain and freezing rain will start to move north with it.  This is where things start to get bad in central Vermont.  There could be a lot of freezing rain tonight and the first half of Sunday.

Broader valleys west will probably go to a cold rain fairly quickly on Sunday morning, but the the freezing rain will continue in the Green Mountains and valleys east of those mountains. 

Remember yesterday, I mentioned that you start to get a little tree damage and power line problems when you get a quarter inch of ice. You get to a half inch and the power lines and trees really get in trouble.

The latest ice accumulation maps from the National Weather Service depict a half inch or more of ice in the hills and valleys either side of Route 100 between about Weston and Rochester. There's even spot on the map northeast of Manchester drawn as having 0.75 inches of ice.

If you live in these areas especially, charge your devices today. You could be in for some lengthy power outages. 

The rain and freezing rain will continue north overnight and Sunday morning. In the Champlain Valley, it could be pretty icy early Sunday morning, but then we'll transition to a cold rain for the rest of the day. That rain will tend to taper off again during the afternoon and evening

In the colder hollows east of the Green Mountains all the way to the Canadian border, freezing rain could be a problem most of the day, though again, precipitation will tend to taper off during the later part of the day. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

Temperatures will continue to slowly warm Sunday night as scattered light showers linger.

Warm air still looks like it will surge across Vermont Monday, bringing us all well into the 50s and 60s for highs. 

It probably won't rain much until later in the day, when a cold front approaches. There could even some thunderstorms mixed in with this. In fact, on Monday, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center predicts severe thunderstorms up and down the east coast, and a marginal (very slight) risk of a severe storm extends all the way up into southwest Vermont.

It still looks like the rapidly melting snow and ice and the renewed rains Monday will bring river levels up, but so far it's still looking like if we get any flooding at all, it will be pretty minor. 

Stay tuned for more updates on this storm as we get 'em!  

Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Awful Wintry Mess Tonight, Saturday. Pretty Bad Sunday, Too. And Monday Weirdness

Still looking at a good thump of snow in northern Vermont,
mostly overnight and Saturday. This snow forecast map
updated Friday afternoon.

We're gearing up for our big weekend storm and here is a very quick Friday evening update.

The forecast remarkably hasn't changed too much since this morning. Note that meteorologist still think there could be big changes in the forecast if the position of a nearly stalled weather front shifts unexpectedly. 

There are a few forecast updates as of Friday afternoon.  

Here they are:

The winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for  most of the Northeast Kingdom, north central Vermont and parts the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  

There, five to nine inches of snow is expected, mostly late tonight and Saturday morning. The heaviest snow north will probably come down from a little before midnight tonight to mid morning Saturday. 

Lighter precipitation is likely in the afternoon. . Some sleet and freezing rain is also likely Saturday night and Sunday. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, the winter weather advisory is still in effect. 

In general, it looks like the forecast has maintained expected snow amounts in northern Vermont north Route 2.  It might have cut back the totals by maybe an inch or so in the far northern Champlain Valley, but that's just background noise.   

However, forecasts for the amount of freezing rain have ominously remained the same, mostly in central Vermont. There, meteorologists are thinking many areas could still see at least a quarter inch of ice accumulation, which is another to begin bridging down tree branches and power lines. 

Ice accumulation forecast map updated Friday 
afternoon still looks ominous for central Vermont.
Red zones could have problems with power outages
and tree damage. 

A few places could see a half inch of ice, which would really cause a lot of trouble. Luckily,  knock on wood, the half inch amounts so far at least don't look that widespread. 

It also still looks like a number of areas will still be dealing with freezing rain for the first half of Sunday before temperatures start to rise later in the day. Even where the rain isn't freezing, it will be a cold raw days.

Monday and Tuesday will be shocks to the system.

It looks like rain might taper off for a number of hours Monday and the sun might come out a little. That could bring temperatures up into the 60s for many of us, which is just ridiculously different than Saturday and Sunday will be.

As the cold front approaches later Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few rumbles of thunder. 

Rapid snow melt and rain later in the day could lead to some flooding issues. But we still don't have updates on that, and so far it doesn't look like the flooding will be serious. Knock on wood. 

By late Monday night, it'll be in the 20s, with highs only in the 30s Tuesday. 

It's one of those springs in Vermont, folks!

Vermont/Surrounding Areas Still Girding For Nasty Snow And Ice Storm This Weekend

Latest snow forecast map issued by the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington early Friday. 
Map is through 8 p.m Sunday but virtually all the snow
you see here will hit late tonight and Saturday.  
Areas in yellow would see the most snow, with
at least six inches in those spots. 

One thing hasn't changed since yesterday's forecast:

Saturday looks UG-LEE in Vermont.  

We're still looking at a horrible mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain that will last from late tonight through Sunday. 

SATURDAY'S MESS

Although overall forecasts have not changed much since yesterday, we really won't know who gets the heaviest snow and the worst icing until we're into the event.  

It all depends on where and how this wavering, pretty much stalled weather front sets up.

If forecasters are wrong on the position of the weather front by as little as 20 or 30 miles, then current predictions would be incorrect one way or another. It's virtually impossible to forecast the exact position of a sluggish warm or cold front, so that's why all the meteorologists are hemming and hawing about how much awfulness comes down from the sky Saturday and where. 

For now - again this could well change - it looks like northern Vermont from very roughly Route 2 north will stay with mostly snow on Saturday where four to eight inches of fairly wet snow would pile up.

Just south of that, we should see a band of mixed precipitation, including quite a bit of freezing rain. That ice is part of a lengthy band of freezing rain and schmutz that is or will be extending along a lengthy band from  northern Minnesota, through upper Michigan, across southern Ontario and on into Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.  

Again though, don't be surprised if the snow and ice areas end up shifting northward or southward unexpectedly. 

Here in Vermont, the precipitation will come down pretty heavily at times.  Between the fairly wet snow, and the ice, I expect some power outages to develop here a there. 

And we know the roads will be atrocious.  

The latest ice accumulation forecast from the National 
Weather Service. This map could change drastically by
tomorrow, depending on shifts in the forecast
Areas in red are where at least a quarter inch of 
ice would accumulate. Once you get to a quarter
inch, you start to lose tree branches
and some power lines. 

Toward the end of March, when snow falls lightly, it can melt when it hits the pavement because of a higher sun angle allowing heat to penetrate the clouds. 

But snow and ice will be coming down heavily enough, from thick clouds, so that we won't really get a break from the early spring sun. 

Expect snow and ice covered roads all day, mostly but not exclusively in the northern half of the state. 

If you have to drive anywhere, do it today, as we're not expected any weather problems whatsoever until tonight. 

it looks like there will be a fair amount of plain rain during the day Saturday in far southern Vermont. 

But precipitation could begin as ice early Saturday, go over to rain, then switch back to freezing rain Saturday night as cold air temporarily bleeds southward all the way to near the Massachusetts border. 

SATURDAY NIGHT

That risk of freezing rain in southern Vermont Saturday night is because that front will drift southward overnight, flooding all of Vermont with chillier air from Quebec. Briefly, anyway. Precipitation probably won't come down all that heavily Saturday night, but those areas receiving a little more freezing rain will see a little more weight added to trees and power lines, so that could risk some trouble.

SUNDAY

That front will slowly lift back north starting early in the day. As it looks now, freezing rain will redevelop, but gradually change to a cold rain during the day.  Parts of  eastern Vermont might have trouble getting above freezing you get well into the afternoon 

That makes me worried about really thick accumulations of ice in a few locations by Sunday.  Once ice from freezing rain gets to be a quarter inch thick or more, you start to lose a few tree limbs and power lines.

Once the ice gets to a half inch thick or more, you really start to risk widespread tree damage and big time power outages. 

This morning's ice forecast maps from the National Weather Service - again, definitely subject to change - has a pretty wide area of central Vermont seeing about a quarter to maybe third of an inch of ice.  

Those maps also shows small, limited areas of Vermont with at least a half inch of ice.  But it's going to be a close call. We'll need to keep an eye on this in case some more widespread areas get a lot of ice. If it looks like we might see more freezing rain than expected, the winter weather advisory would be upgraded to an ice storm warning for a few sections of the state. 

Even where ice turns into a cold rain Sunday, the snow and ice won't immediately begin to melt all that fast. Temperatures will hold in the 30s most of the day, so the schmutz on the ground will just soggier.

We'll have to wait until later Sunday night and Monday to see any hint of a return to spring. 

MONDAY

Still looking weird. 

Temperatures - at least for awhile - will rocket upwards into the 50s to maybe some 60s as the rain continues and it turns sort of oddly humid for this time of year. The rain and the rapidly melting snow and ice from the weekend could lead to some flooding problems.  It's a little early to predict how much if any flooding we'll see. 

Rivers will certainly go up, but whether they spill their banks is an open question. But so far it's not looking too serous. 

There could conceivably even be a few non-severe thunderstorms mixed in on Monday. 

It's another thing to keep an eye on, though.

A sharp cold front Monday night will plunge us into the 20s, so all that remaining water out there will freeze up. At least by later Monday night the precipitation will have been mostly flushed away. 

After a cold for the season but bright Tuesday, another storm looks to come along by Thursday.  That one likely will turn out to be mostly rain, and probably not as big as the fun we're going to have this weekend.