Latest Vermont Flood: Details Emerge As Questions Grow About FEMA

Map of rainfall yesterday in Vermont, from data 
collected by the National Weather Service in 
South Burlington. Heavy rains were confined
to parts of the Northeast Kingdom, and a 
couple spotty areas in central Vermont. 

For the third year in a row, some Vermonters are picking up the pieces today after yet another flash flood. 

The tiny town of Northeast Kingdom town of Sutton, population of less than 1,000, appears to be the hardest hit. The good news is that so far, I haven't heard of any serious injuries with this latest flood. 

But the damage was also scattered around the state. A large section of the Middlebury Union High School roof was torn off by intense thunderstorm winds on Thursday. The roof damage allowed some of torrential rains with the storm pour into the boy's locker room, cafeteria and auditorium. 

Officials at the school said the interior damage was thankfully not severe. 

Flood damage was still being tallied in West Burke, East Haven and other Northeast Kingdom towns, along with some spots in Addison County.  But Sutton took the brunt of it. Video from Live Storms Media showed water racing across a road near Sutton, forming a waterfall on one side where the road had washed away. 

 Vermont Public reports that the swift water rescue in Sutton involved a couple and their dog, who were pulled off their roof by the rescue group during the flood. 

Rainfall was highly variable and highly localized. Only a few places received torrents of rain. Many  Vermont towns received little or no rain yesterday. 

The disparity was evident even within the counties hit hardest. West Burke in Caledonia County reported 5.12 inches of rain. But in the opposite end of the county, Wells River and Barton saw only 0.04 inches.  

This is a map of rainfall in the July, 2023 flood. As you
can see here, that one affected pretty much the whole
state, not just a few areas. Pink and purple areas had
at least five inches of rain. Compared to yesterday,
July 23 was many times worse. 

Slow moving thunderstorms parking over certain towns were to blame. Disconcertingly, that same issue of stalled downpours has arisen today. But the storms are very few and far between, and smaller in size than yesterday's.   

If any new flash flooding develops late this afternoon or this evening, it will be highly isolated. However, we're still looking at low but not zero chances of isolated flash flooding Saturday, Sunday and Monday. 

That the chances of new flooding are - fingers crossed - low is good news, as some towns already have a ton of damage. 

Further details from Vermont Public:

"Roughly 20 homes in the Caledonia County town remained cut off from road access as of Friday morning, according to the town fire chief. Town officials said they've made contact with most of these homeowners, but expect it will take several days to make these roads passable.

The storm overwhelmed many of Sutton's roads, culverts and ditches and damaged several homes along Calendar Brook Road. 

According to initial estimates, repairs to the town infrastructure could cost upward of a million dollars - after Sutton has already spent millions on recovery from previous floods."

I don't think anybody knows where Sutton - and other affected towns in the Northeast Kingdom will get the money to fix damage from the latest calamity. 

This is especially true with the Federal Emergency Management Agency's future in doubt. 

FEMA AND VERMONT

We won't know for awhile yet whether the damage in Vermont would qualify for federal assistance even under the "old rules" for federal assistance that were in effect before Donald Trump took office in January. 

Even if Vermont qualifies for help under those old rules, who knows whether we'll receive it? Everything Trumpian is subject to his whims, and information and plans shift like the breeze.

Trump has said he wants to abolish FEMA. Or change it. Or shift all the responsibility to the states. 

Today, as Trump headed to Texas to survey damage from a deadly Fourth of July flood that was many, many orders of magnitude worse than what Vermont saw, his administration's previous vows to abolish FEMA are wavering. 

Per today's Washington Post:

"A senior White House official told the Washington Post that no official action is being taken to wind down FEMA, and that changes in the agency will probably amount to a 'rebranding' that will emphasize state leaders' roles in disaster response."

In other words, nobody has a clue what will happen. 

Which is the question everybody including Vermonters who would deal with disasters are asking. .  

Per Vermont Public: 

"State and national experts say only one thing is clear as of now: The new federal administration wants states to assume a bigger role in disaster response and recovery. The ambiguity over what that looks like, according to Eric Forand, director of Vermont Emergency Management, has complicated the business of disaster preparedness for state officials trying to gird for the next catastrophe."

Given Vermont's track record, this is really an important question.

Vermont Public had an eye-opening stat: 

"Vermont, which has experienced 25 federal disaster declarations since 2011, has been particularly reliant on federal aid. According to a recent analysis, the state has received more federal disaster assistance per capita over the past 14 years than any states but Louisiana, Hawaii, and New York."

There's no reason to think that trend will stop. Vermont is a flood-prone state. Climate change will continue to intensify storms, so more big floods are inevitable. We've already had two damaging flash floods this year, and we're only now getting into the peak of what you might call peak flash flood season.

Those humid July and August dog days can really produce those downpours. More so with climate change. 

 The theoretical solution for this entire mess is for the state, and disaster-prone towns to build up a rainy day fun to deal with inevitable future disasters. 

Good luck with that. The floods of 2023 and 2024 cost several individual towns more money than their entire annual budget. I'm pretty sure local taxpayers can't hand over twice the amount or more they've been paying already. 

We're lucky yesterday wasn't as bad as it could have been.

But still, we're screwed. 

  

For 3rd July 10 In A Row, Vermont Suffers Through Damaging Floods, More Trouble Ahead?

Thunderstorms developing near Lake Champlain 
caused falling rain and sunshine to mix in
interesting patterns, as seen from St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday. Though this storm was picturesque,
other storms elsewhere in Vermont caused a lot
of flood damage for the third July 10 in a row. 

 Yes, incredibly, as you might have already heard, for the third July 10 in a row, Vermont suffered through damaging flooding. 

The worst of the trouble this time was up in the Northeast Kingdom, with reports of water in homes, swift water rescue teams rushing a respond, roads closed, and four to five inches of rain in spots. 

Other flooding was reported in parts of Addison County. 

At least one swift water rescue was reported along Calendar Brook Road in Sutton.  They were there to "assist the residents of one  home cut off by floodwater," according to a Vermont Emergency Management statement, as VTDigger reported. 

Other rescue teams were staged around the state just in case. 

Barton and Orleans, and other Northeast Kingdoms communities have now suffered flood damage for the third July 10 in a row. That has to be incredibly disheartening. 

Damage reports from Thursday were a dime a dozen.  Sheffield Road was washed out in Sutton. School Street in West Burke was under water. Route 114 was closed due to a culvert washout in East Haven. Part of Route 58 in Orleans was washed out.

A number of local town roads in the Northeast Kingdom were either damaged or closed or both by washouts and flooding. 

Rainfall amounts in parts of the Northeast Kingdom were impressive to say the least. West Burke reported 5.07 inches, Sutton saw 4.92 inches. Down in Addison County, 4.32 inches fell in New Haven, where at least one road was closed by flooding. 

The storms this time were hit and miss. Parts of northwest and southern Vermont saw almost no rain. Burlington reported just 0.02 inches. Montpelier reported a tame 0.26 inches, which had to be a relief compared to the more than six inches of rain Montpelier endured on July 10-11, 2023, and the more than three inches they had last year. 

 If you want to find a weak silver lining from yesterday, I suppose the trend line is good. Thursday's floods weren't as widespread as last year's. And the floods of 2023 were even worse than in 2024. 

Almost all the damage from yesterday was in limited to the Northeast Kingdom and parts of Addison County. Last year's floods affected most of northern Vermont. The July, 2023 floods affected almost the entire state. 

So each July 10 is better, maybe?

That's cold comfort to anyone who suffered damage yesterday. It was especially distressing to have another July 10 in which the weather radio was crackling with an onslaught of flood and severe storm warnings. 

Still, another bright side was that some towns and cities that were hard hit in 2023 and 2024 like Barre, Montpelier and Johnson, reported little damage from Thursday's storms.  

Severe thunderstorms with powerful winds also roamed parts of the state Thursday. The roof of Middlbury High School was damage by powerful storm winds. Multiple trees crashed to the ground and blocked parts of Route 125 in Middlebury and Weybridge, along with Route 17 in Weybridge. 

Some tree damage was reported in Williamstown and Hyde Park

I don't know whether Thursday's damage qualified Vermont for federal disaster aid. Complicating the picture is the Trump administration is famously withholding disaster funds.  

The flood and storm reports from yesterday are still coming in, so I'll update as warranted throughout this. 

HEAT AND STORMS TO CONTINUE

Much like in the aftermath of the floods of July 2023, and 2024, Vermont is now settling into a weather pattern featuring hot, humid weather accompanied by some risk of additional damaging storms. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, keeps Vermont (and many other parts of the nation) in a marginal risk for more flash flooding Saturday, Sunday and Monday. That's the least dire of four tiers of flood risk, meaning there's a chance of isolated flash floods.

On Saturday, there's only going to be scattered storms here and there, mostly just because the air mass will be warm and humid. At this point I think Saturday's the lowest risk day, and chances are good we'll get through the day with no trouble.

Forecasters are watching the period from Sunday evening into Monday. The air will be very humid, and a weather front will be approaching from the west. (Some are calling it a cold front, but there's nothing cold about it). 

We could see a few scattered instances of downpours heavy enough to cause some localized new flood issues.  Again, nothing widespread, but something to keep an eye on.

Behind this "cold front" on Monday, the air will stay very warm and humid, so that thing is going to be just a thunderstorm trigger and pretty much nothing else. 

A heat ridge will build in the eastern U.S. next week, ensuring Vermont will stay very warm and humid probably at least until the end of next week. 

Check out these forecast daily highs in Burlington Saturday, through Thursday: 87, 89, 85, 90, 92, 92. So yeah, icky,

Vermont will also be near the northern edge of that heat dome. Clusters of thunderstorms often ride along the northern edge of these things. We'll need to be on guard for the risk of perhaps some severe storms or local flash floods again most of next week. 

We don't know for sure about that. If we're lucky, everything will go by to our north. We'll have better forecasts once we get into next week. 

On Flood Anniversary, Vermont Risk Of Flash Flooding Increases A Bit, Still Not Nearly As Dire As Last 2 Years

Parts of Vermont and northeast New York got a slight
bump up in the risk level of severe storms. Earlier
forecasts had us in the dark green marginal risk
meaning isolated instances of damaging winds.
It's now "slight" meaning scattered instances, not
just isolated cases of bad storm winds. 

UPDATE 1 PM THURSDAY

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has increased the risk level for flash flooding in Vermont this afternoon and evening. 

Instead of a marginal risk of isolated instances of flash flooding, (level 1 out of 4 risk) we're at what is known as slight risk, which is level 2 out of 4 in the risk categories.

This means instead of just a 5 percent chance or so of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of your location, there is now a 15 percent chance or even somewhat better than that chance of seeing flooding in that radius.

This is because the developing storms are slow movers. We could see pockets of two to four inches of rain in a few spots. 

Flash flooding could happen anywhere around Vermont today, , but I still think the highest chance of flash flooding is in the Northeast Kingdom, where there have been local downpours all morning. 

Ominously, a flood warning already had already been issued around the town of Orleans in the Northeast Kingdom

I'll emphasize that we're still NOT going to see anything nearly as widespread or destructive as we did on July 10-11 last year or the year before. 

Most of us will be just fine today and tonight, and most of us will still see much less than two inches of rain.  An inch of rain, if you manage to get that, won't cause any flood issues. 

Updated risk map increases the flash flood threat in
Vermont a bit to slight, level two out of four on the
risk scale, as you can see below, it was earlier
just marginal, a level one out of four on the risk scale,

But I do think there will be some scattered areas of trouble in Vermont today. This could be the third year in a row with flood issues on this date. 

Stay tuned to your weather radar through the day and into the evening to receive warnings of local flash flooding or spots where severe thunderstorms could trigger damaging winds. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I guess July 10 and 11 have become a weather tradition in Vermont. 

It seems either something really bad happens, like the big floods of July 10, 2023 and 2024, or everything is fine, but something interesting happens with the weather. 

Not every July 10 and 11 is weather weird, of course. Historically, most of them are pretty routine, like any date of the year. But the dates often bring at least something vaguely noteworthy. 

The chilliest temperature of July, 2022 in Burlington came on July 10.  The low of 50 was not all that cold for July, but is still the coolest July temperature since 2015. July 10, 2020 was the hottest day of the month, with a high of 95 and a low of 75 in Burlington.

When I was a kid, July 11, 1976 stands out as one of the worst local flash floods I've ever seen, striking parts of Rutland County. Going way back to 1888, it snowed like hell for a time on the Green Mountain summits. 

As mentioned in my Wednesday post, today won't be a repeat of the hell we went through in 2023 and 2024. 

Today will just bring us some interesting doses of showers and thunderstorms.  Some of which seem destined to cause local spots of trouble here and there in the Green Mountain State.   So you'll need to stay on your toes. 

THIS MORNING'S SET UP

An area of heavy rain that caused flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic States last evening moved into southeast New England today, where flash flooding from up to six inches of rain hit earlier this morning 

We don't have to worry about those annoying downpours,  as they will keep moving off to the northeast off the New England coast.

But here in Vermont, it was already a bit interesting as of 8 a.m. There were already some widely scattered pinpoint, slow moving downpours around the state. 

That's a hint right there we will have no trouble generating a bunch of showers and storms during the day today. It's hard to know exactly how each storm will develop and move, but what follows is a decent guess. 

Flash flood risk in Vermont is still marginal, meaning at
most isolated instances os flash floods. The yellow areas
have a somewhat higher risk of flash floods. 

Breezes going up the slopes of the Green Mountains should generate storms along those mountains. Maybe pretty early in the day, before noon.  Those should then drift eastward into the Northeast Kingdom and the Connecticut Valley.

The rest is complicated. The storms could generate outflow gusts that will interact with other weak disturbances coming in from New York State, which would then drift eastward into the Champlain Valley later this afternoon. 

 Eventually, they'll head through the Green Mountains into the eastern Vermont toward evening.

Other random storms could pop up just about anywhere else during the day and evening today.  

Most of the storms won't be super awful. However, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Vermont and northeast New York  to a level two slight risk level for severe storms, which means scattered instances of severe storms, Until earlier this morning, the risk forecast was lower with only a marginal risk of isolated instances of severe storms.  

If severe storms form, they'll produce damaging winds in a few spots. There's also a risk of damaging hail, but that risk is pretty low. 

The storms will also move sluggishly.   With heavy downpours. If you're unlucky enough to have a storm stall over year, or get hit by several of them, there could be a local flash flood problem. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is still watching the current marginal risk of local flash floods.  

As of today, it would take probably two inches of rain within three hours to start flash flooding in most parts of Vermont.  A few isolated places in the state could see up to three inches in that time frame, hence the small risk of those flash floods,

I'll emphasize that the vast majority of us will see much less than three inches of rain today, which is why we won't have any widespread problems with high water. Still, take any flash flood warning seriously. If you're under such a warning, stick to high ground. Don't drive over a flooded road, as it could be washed away or undermined.

A flash flood could develop anywhere, but I'd say they'd happen in the Green Mountains or Northeast Kingdom. 

You'll want to have a weather  radio with you today, or at least some way to receive severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings, just in case. 

But again, Ill stress that meteorologists expect nothing close to the scale we saw last year and the year before.  

HEAT

It's humid out there, and it will stay that way. The little boundary in New York that's helping to set off today's storms isn't really a cold front. It will have gone by us tomorrow, so we expect storms to be few and far between on Friday.

Temperatures are  going to go up again, too. The clouds and storms should hold temperatures today in the upper 70s eastern Vermont to low 80s west.  Starting tomorrow and on through at least next Wednesday, daily highs in Vermont should get into the mid and upper 80s. With a few 90 degree readings thrown in here and there.

The humidity will stay high, so nights will be stuffy too.  Not a good week coming up if you don't have air conditioning, I'm afraid.

Given the heat and humidity, there's a chance of a scattered storm or two each afternoon and evening, but most places will be dry most of the time. The best chances of storms at this point look like they'll be around later Sunday and maybe Monday.  

Ruidoso, New Mexico Latest Place To Get Slammed By Flash Flood (Again!)

Screen grab from a video showing a 
house being swept downstream during
flash flooding in Ruidoso, New Mexico
Tuesday. The community has been hit
by repeated flash floods and debris
flows and Tuesday's was the worst yet.

The mountain town of Ruidoso, New Mexico once again been ravaged by floods and debris flows Tuesday, killing three people and destroying houses.

The deaths included a brother and sister, ages 4 and 7, continuing another horrible trend we've seen this summer of children frequently falling victims to floods and other disasters,   

Between 50 and 60 people had to be rescued from the swift flowing water. 

The main river in the area, the Rio Ruidoso, experienced a record high crest of 20.24 feet during the abrupt Tuesday flood. That's five feet higher than the previous record. 

Several homes were flattened or carried downstream. One widely circulated video shows a home racing along in the rapids and smashing into trees. 

Up to 2.5 inches of rain fell on wildfire-revaged hillsides above town, sending the water crashing through the community of about 8,000 people. 

 Moisture from the remnants of last week's Tropical Storm Barry continue to linger over the Southwest, which contributed to the flood in Ruidoso.

 Those Barry remnants were also a key ingredient to the catastrophic, deadly floods in the Texas Hill Country over the weekend. 

Tuesday's flood was the worst in a series of such floods since a June, 2024 wildfire in and near the town left the community vulnerable to these floods.

Per the Washington Post; 

"Last year's fires burned almost a thousand homes and killed two people. They also left Ruidoso and its population of almost 8,000 people particularly vulnerable to flash flooding, with the destruction of trees and a change in soil composition leaving the hillsides less able to absorb rain. Over the weeks that followed the fires, the scenic town was hit with multiple floods."

It's been an extremely month so far for flooding in the United States. The National Weather Service has received more than 300 reports of flooding since Friday. 

Elsewhere, parts of Chicago were swamped by more than five inches of rain in just an hour and a half. Areas just to the west of the Loop got the most, with numerous reports of people being rescued from flooded cars and buildings.

The flood was very localized, with Midway and O'Hare Airports a little to the northeast of the storm reporting less than a tenth of an inch of rain 

 Late this afternoon, a broad swath of the Mid-Atlantic States were under the gun for what could well be a widespread and serious flash flood event. As of 5 p.m. a large area of torrential thunderstorms was moving through West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland, and new flash flood warning were being hastily issued.

I think it was about this time last year I called it the summer of flash floods. This year is even worse in the United States, apparently.  

On Upcoming Anniversary Of Vermont Dual Floods: Kinda Stormy, But Not That Scary

Rampaging Winooski River roars through Winooski,
Vermont during the big flood of July, 2023

On this date, July 9, in both 2023 and 2024 I had a sense of dread and alarm for Vermont.

With both occasions, Vermont was about to be slammed by horrific and disheartening, destructive floods. 

Now it's July 9 again, and here in 2025 thunderstorms and locally heavy rains are in the forecast for tomorrow again.

 The big and very important difference is this year, it doesn't look like we're facing disaster. Maybe a little inconvenience in a few spots, but - fingers crossed - nothing more. 

No calamity, no real sorrow, very little loss is in the cards this time. 

On July 9, 2023, I wrote the following: "I'm very worried, frankly. All the ingredients are coming together for a Vermont flood that could well be the worst since Irene in 2011."

I was right to be worried. July, 2023 was tragically pretty much as bad as Irene in 2011.  

Last July 9,  I wrote, "On the one-year anniversary of one of the worst floods in Vermont's history, we're about to see that flood's kid brother."

The "kid brother" packed almost as bad a punch as the flood the year before.

JULY 10, 2025

After what we went through in the past two years, I feel like I want to be a little more cautious than usual talking about our forecast this year. Irrationally, I don't want to jinx it.  Everybody in Vermont,  has at least a touch of flood PTSD.

That includes the very lucky ones like me, who suffered little damage to their homes and properties in the two events. I can only imagine what people who suffered terrible losses in the past two July 10 events feel like when rain is in the forecast. 

A destroyed bridge and culvert system near 
Huntington, Vermont after the floods of July, 2024

Today will be fine, with no problems at all. There could be an isolated shower or storm in far southern and eastern Vermont, but, no biggie

Then we get into tomorrow. Yes, there is a marginal risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm. And a marginal risk of isolated flash floods, too.

You have to look at it as a game of chance, and tomorrow's game of chance looks a lot more favorable to us than in the previous two years.

In 2023, forecasts leading up to the event gave people in Vermont a more than 70 percent chance of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of their location. 

Last year, the forecasts from NOAA gave us a more than 40 percent chance of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of where they were standing.

Tomorrow, those chances of seeing a flash flood within a couple dozen miles of where you are is just 5 percent. 

Also, those chances in 2023 and 2024 predicted major damage. This year's marginal risk suggests we might have at most some isolated instances of mostly minor flooding in poor drainage areas. 

THE SETUP

The weather system coming in tomorrow to provide those expected storms tomorrow will be weak, barely discernible on weather maps. This will be nothing like the intense blasts of Atlantic and tropical moisture that slammed us in 2023 and 2024.  

But, the humidity will be back. That'll provide plenty of fuel for showers and storms. Air flow in the atmosphere will be sluggish, too, so thunderstorms will be in no hurry to move from place to place.

That's why there's that low risk of local flooding. If a downpour sits over one spot for too long, you start getting washouts, and high water in small streams and creeks.  If we see any of these stalled downpours, they won't cover a wide area, which is why not many people are at risk of any flooding.

 Most of us will only see a half inch of rain or less. We'll get through the day and just end up with wet gardens and grass, so mowing the lawn tomorrow evening is probably out of the question. It won't be a great day for the beach or boating or hiking.

Again, we're facing minor inconveniences tomorrow, not catastrophe. 

BOTTOM LINE

It probably would have been better for everyone's mental health if the Vermont forecast for tomorrow was for wall to wall sunshine. But at least we don't have the feeling of dread we had at this time last year, and the year before.

But I'm going to ruin your mood now. A warmer, climate changed atmosphere can hold much more water than it could decades ago.  That makes flash floods more likely in very many places, including here in Vermont. 

It's been an exceptionally terrible month already in the U.S. for flash floods.  As of this morning, it appears at least 110 people have died in last weekend's Texas Hill Country flood with as many as 161 people still missing. 

On Sunday, four died in a severe flash flood in central North Carolina. Just yesterday, the worst in a series of flash floods and debris flows from a forest fire scar in Ruidoso, New Mexico killed three people and washed away homes. 

And last night, a stalled thunderstorm dumped more than five inches of rain in just an hour and a half in the western parts of Chicago, causing severe local flash flooding and water rescues from cars. 

Though we seem in Vermont  - again, fingers crossed - from any scary flood drama tomorrow, I still have the feeling that the other shoe will drop eventually. So does anybody involved in Vermont emergency management, weather forecasting and climate science. 

Eventually, something like July 10-11, 2023 and July 10-11, 2024 will happen again. And again and again. 

Vermont has always had terrible floods.  But now we are in an era that these disasters are more frequent.  This new reality is changing the very fabric of the state, and those changes will keep coming at least as fast as the flash floods will.

This isn't your grandfather's Vermont anymore.   

Big Carolina Flood Overshadowed By Texas, But Had Similarities

Flooding from the remnants of Tropical Storm 
Chantal in North Carolina Sunday. 

 The roots of tragic Texas Hill Country flood over the Fourth of July weekend in part stemmed from what was a nothing burger, weak tropical storm named Barry that limped ashore in northeastern Mexico. 

The remnants of that storm combined with other factors to unleash the torrents that led to the Texas tragedy. 

One week after Barry, another forgettable tropical storm, Chantal came ashore early Sunday near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, again with little fanfare and no real damage. even less damage 

But the remnants of Chantal moved inland, and let loose a huge flash flood Sunday in central North Carolina - a state that really, really doesn't need another flood disaster. Chantal was another tropical storm didn't leave its mark until after people thought it had gone away for good. 

Chantal was another reminder that tropical storms and hurricanes can cause serious danger long after they have officially dissipated. 

The North Carolina flooding has killed at least four people. Authorities were also searching for a  canoers who went missing in the storm on Jordan Lake in Chatham County, North Carolina. A fellow canoer there was found deceased, 

The flooding displaced dozens of people from their homes.   Several roads in the region were shut down by flooding, including parts of Interstates 40 and 85 between Raleigh and Greensboro, North Carolina. 

The area in and around Chapel Hill, North Carolina was especially hard hit.  One example, provided by the Associated Press:

"Floodwaters inundated Chapel Hill's Eastgate Crossings shopping center, where the red-framed glass doors of a Talbots store were blown in and debris-speckled white mannequins littered the floor.

Next door, the Great Outdoor Provision Co. manager Chad Pickens said kayaks ended up 30 feet from where they had been on display, and shelves in the shoe room were toppled like dominoes." 

Sunday's North Carolina flood  avoided the area hit hard by catastrophic Hurricane Helene last September. 

Meanwhile, in Texas the death toll continued to climb mercilessly. At last check, 104 deaths had been reported, with dozens more still missing. 

The news will continue to remain grim with this one. 

Although  flash flooding is possible in various parts of the United States in the coming days. The threat of renewed flooding has eased somewhat in both Texas and North Carolina. 

Monday Storms And Heat Depart Vermont , But Summer Weather Stays Put

 The thunderstorm that broke the heat in northern Vermont were in some ways the perfect storms. 

The skies grew dark, Lake Champlain grew choppy and
the wind picked up as thunderstorms approached
Swanton, Vermont late Monday afternoon.
Parts of northern Vermont saw some torrential 
downpours from these storms. 

They were loud and big and boisterous enough to be entertaining with their lightning flashes and big downpours.

 But they fell just short of being severe or damaging, and the torrential rains in every place affected ended just in time to prevent any serious flash flooding. 

The storms have helped northwestern Vermont get July off to a wet start. 

Burlington got nearly an inch of rain. Morrisville clocked in with 1.49 inches.

The first week of July brought 2.38 inches of rain to Burlington, more than double the average for the week. 

My unofficial rain gauge here in St. Albans has caught 0.85 inches of rain yesterday, for a total so far this month of 2.76 inches. 

Other parts of Vermont have avoided much rain so far this young month. Southern Vermont for a change is somewhat on the dry side for the opening part of July

Before the Monday storms, Burlington reached 92 degrees, the sixth time this summer already it's been 90 degrees or more. Once again, we're ahead of schedule for the number of 90 degree days. But not on a record breaking pace. 

The most 90 degree days in a single year at Burlington is 26 back in 1949.  Unless we see some unbelievable extremes later in July and August. that record seems safe. 

We know it won't make it anywhere close to 90 degrees today, thanks to the cold front that sparked Monday's storms

FORECAST

It was murky and foggy and overcast across Vermont early this morning in the wake of that cold front. It was also quite muggy in central and southern parts of the state, but a little less so up in the northwest parts of the Green Mountain State.

You'll see gradual improvement today, with the hope of some sun breaking out this afternoon. The air won't turn gloriously dry, but at least it will be less humid than it's been the past couple of days. 

Wednesday actually looks pretty decent. It should be partly sunny and seasonably warm (low 80s). There's a low chance of a few scattered showers and storms, but most places should stay dry. 

Thursday is July 10, a day which makes Vermont nervous. That's because of those dates in 2023 and last year, catastrophic flooding hit us.  We don't want that to happen again!  I'm sure rain on Thursday could bring on some episodes of PTSD.

The bad news is it will probably rain on Thursday. The great news is so far I don't see any signs that the rain will amount to anything that would cause big trouble. Sure, most of us will see some showers and thunderstorms. 

The extent of those storms is still iffy, as the forecast models are arguing among themselves a bit. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does have Vermont in a marginal risk zone for flash flooding Thursday. But that means that there's a remote chance a spot or two could see enough rain to cause a little damage.

If forecasts change, of course we'll let you know. But I think we're pretty safe on Thursday. 

Beyond Thursday, it stays rather warm and on the humid side, with an occasional risk here and there of a scattered shower or storm through the weekend and probably beyond. 

Heat And Storms The Rest Of The Day In Vermont; Summer Weather Staying Put For Quite Awhile

Dark green areas on this map, including here in Vermont
have a low but not zero chance of severe thunderstorms 
today. That yellow and orange are in the central
Plains has a higher risk of bad storms. 

You can surely tell it's summertime in Vermont. 

The stereotypical clean, cool, refreshing air is gone for now, replaced by something much more tropical. Summers in recent years have gotten hotter and more humid in the Green Mountain State. We're living that tropical dream now, it seems. 

At least we still occasionally get cool, sunny breaks, like we did last Friday. 

But not this week. 

Burlington on Sunday tied the record first set in 1897 for the highest low temperature for the date. It never got cooler than 74 degrees yesterday.  The high in Burlington Sunday got up to 92 degrees, already the fifth time this year it's gotten to or past 90 degrees. 

We could make it to 90 degrees again today.

TODAY 

It was quite oppressive overnight into this morning, too. Burlington never got cooler than 77 degrees last night and early this morning. 

That warm start to the day sets the stage for a hot one, much like Sunday. Except with a somewhat greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Especially north. And later in the day. 

As of 10 a.m.,this morning,  there were lots of showers west and north of Montreal. Environment Canada had already issued a rainfall warning for possible local floods north of Montreal and a severe thunderstorm watch south of Montreal as of midmorning today. 

The Canadian showers were mostly heading east, and not so much south this morning, which is a symptom of how slowly a lame but wet cold front up in Quebec is staggering southward. 

Its slow movement suggests that most of the showers and thunderstorm probably won't break out until late this afternoon.  We might see a few rogue ones earlier this afternoon.  But most of the activity will come later, I think.There's a good chance most of them won't get too far south of Route 2 before evening.

The late arrival of most storms will enable most of Vermont to reach well into the 80s to maybe near 90 degrees. Those 90 degree readings are most likely in the central and southern Champlain Valley, where a heat advisory is still in effect today. Some 90s will probably pop up in the lower Connecticut River Valley, too. 

That the storms will start to come in mid-afternoon or later, that'll give some of them time to work with the hot, humid air to turn into real gulllywashers.   

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont north of about Route 4 north in a low level marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms. That means there could be isolated instances of damaging winds with one or two of the storms. 

Additionally, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has all but the extreme southeast corner of Vermont in a low level risk zone for isolated instances of flash flooding today.   

Green areas on this map - and there's a lot of 'em -
have a risk of some isolated instances of flash
flooding today. Vermont is included in that.
Note the red area in Texas. That's where those
tragic floods hit over the weekend. Meteorologists
fear intense downpours will redevelop there
today, causing renewed, dangerous flash floods

That makes sense, since the storms that will develop later today have lots of moisture to work with, so they'll have torrential downpours. 

The storms that do get going should move along at a pretty good clip, so torrential downpours from each individual storm won't last all that long in any particular place.

That's great if you get hit by just one thunderstorms. Your storm won't hang around in your backyard long enough to flood it out.

The problem is that damn slow moving cold front. It could set up a situation in which one thunderstorm after another moves roughly west to east just south of the front as it comes toward us. 

This type of "line of boxcars" thunderstorms with repeated downpours could create a local flash flood threat.

I'll emphasize this isn't set in stone, it's just a possibility to watch for late this afternoon and this evening. 

Given the slow nature of the front, showers and thunderstorms could last well into the evening, though they'll diminish in intensity as the sun sets.  The sun's disappearance will reduce instability, which will sap the strength of any storms still wandering through the Green Mountain State. 

Not everyone will see a storm today. As always they'll be hit and miss, no matter where you are in Vermont. Many if not most places south of Route 4 might not see anything at all. 

LOOKING AHEAD

That sad excuse of a cold front will still be lingering around southern Vermont tomorrow, setting off a risk of storms there. I'm insulting the front like I am because it's not a powerhouse. It's mostly just a wind shift and a cloud generator.  

Yes, it will be noticeably cooler Tuesday, especially north, where highs might not get out of the upper 70s. But it will stay kind of humid, as there's no big push of fresh Canadian air coming in behind this thing. 

Showers and a few storms are most likely across southern Vermont with that front nearby.

The pathetic remnants of the "cold front" should move south of the region Wednesday giving us a bit of a break. But rather humid, and rather warm weather with an ever-present chance of showers and storms will probably continue into the weekend. Much of that time should stay rain-free though. 

At least the operating word here is warm, not hot. Daily highs Wednesday through Sunday should mostly make it into the low and mid 80s. 

Texas Flood: More Deaths, NWS On Top Of It, Warning System Lacking, Video, Other Updates

Interior of a building housing children at summer camp
near the Guadalupe River in central Texas. Note the
water reached the top bunks, judging from the
mud line the windows.. 

The death toll from the extreme Texas floods over the Fourth of July weekend kept horrifyingly ballooning upward all day Sunday and last night. 

As of early this morning, at least 78 people had died in the flooding. Another 41 people were missing. 

Hope was fading that more survivors will be found. There was a report that two girls had been found alive Sunday, but that report turned out to be false. 

We couldn't even squeeze one thankful moment out of this tragedy. 

Mr. Rogers once said that if you're seeing something awful, look for the helpers. 

There are plenty in Texas. Including camp counselors who braved rushing water to save a lot of the kids at Camp Mystic, the camp where some children were swept away an killed. 

 The flash flooding moved a little north on Sunday, hitting communities a little south and west of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. 

Flood watches remained in effect Sunday for the Texas Hill Country, as more developing thunderstorms threatened further downpours. 

Separately, serious flash flooding hit parts of North Carolina Sunday after Tropical Storm Chantal came ashore earlier in the day. 

THE WARNING TIMELINE 

More evidence emerged that the National Weather System was on entirely on top of the developing Texas flood situation Thursday and early Friday. 

The flooding started after 1 a.m. Friday and rapidly worsened before dawn, when people are asleep and less likely to hear warnings. Or, given it was dark, they just didn't have the visual cues that something was going very, very wrong. 

Meteorologist Jess Hawila at WFAA in Dallas provided a detailed time line of when and how the National Weather Service issued statements, alerts and warnings before and during the flood. 

Between Tuesday and Thursday, the National Weather Service offices in San Antonio and Austin were putting out statements saying there was a flash flood risk Thursday night and Friday.

At 1:18 p.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for the the area including Kerr Couty, where the worst of the flooding hit. The watch mentioned the possibility of up to seven inches of rain. 

Mountains of debris after the extreme Texas Hill
Country flood this weekend. 

At 6:10 p.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service released a special discussion - one that is typically noticed by emergency managers. 

This NWS statement referenced "concerning trends" indicating flash flooding was on its way and mentioned forecasted rainfall rates exceeding three inches per hour. 

At 1:06 a.m. Friday, the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for Kerr County, and used a tag "considerable" to the wording in the warning. 

That should have triggered those automatic alerts that sets your cell phone blaring during emergencies such as life-threatening weather. 

The NWS at 2:38 a.m. Friday issued a communication that five inches of rain had already fallen. That was followed up at 3:02 a.m. with a National Weather Service statement saying "a dangerous flash flood emergency is unfolding in south-central Kerr County. 

At 4:03 a.m. a flash flood emergency was declared in Kerr County. Near Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, where those children were swept away and presumably drowned, the Guadalupe River reached major flood stage of 22 feet, ultimately cresting at 29.45 feet shortly after 4:30 a.m. 

National Weather Service offices across the nation, including those serving the flash flood zone, have staff shortages due to mostly Trump administration cutbacks. But crucially, the local National Weather Service office increased staff Thursday night, knowing that dangerous weather was possible. 

Normally,  under our current regime of NWS staff shortages, two meteorologists would have been on duty that night. However, five meteorologists staffed the office that night and early morning. 

GETTING THE MESSAGE

However, either the messaging wasn't adequate enough to convey the serious danger developing, or more likely, people just didn't hear the warnings. 

Kerr County, the epicenter of the extreme flooding early Friday, does not have a reliable early warning system, despite the fact the area is highly prone to flash flood. 

As NBCDFW.com reports, local officials said they did not expect such an intense downpour, despite the dire flood warning issued in the predawn hours Friday. 

"We know we get rains. We know the river rises....But nobody saw this coming," said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly. 

The county had looked into building a flash flood warning system a few years ago. It would have worked somewhat like a tornado warning system, with sirens and other means of alerting the public. But officials  blanched at the cost. 

We also don't know what went on at the camps where the children were swept away. What are the safety protocols for nights when flash flooding is possible? When does somebody pull the trigger to start an evacuation? Was there a detailed plan to hustle all the kids out of danger as fast as possible? Lots of inquiring minds want to know.

The timing of the flooding was the worst possible, as Texas Tribune tells us. It was the start of a major summer holiday weekend, when camps and RV parks would be fully booked. The more people you have in one area, the longer it takes to get everybody out of harm's way.

The emergency hit before dawn, when pretty much everyone was asleep. A lot of the people in the area were out of town tourists, who were probably unfamiliar with how fast these floods develop. When they did wake up, people were initially probably too groggy to act fast. 

By the time the crisis hit, you had to get out of the way with lighting speed. Any hesitation would be fatal. 

The end result is easily the Texas flood is the most deadly weather related disaster in the United States this year. Worse than the January wildfires in California. Worse than any of the more than 1,300 tornadoes the U.S, has seen this year.  Worse than the catastrophic floods in and near Kentucky this past February and April.

VIDEO

A  video by Gavin Walston shows the flash flood view from the 480 Bridge in Center Point, Texas.    In a little over a half hour, the river goes from nothing special flowing more than 20 feet below the bridge, to a debris-filled horror overtaking the bridge. You can hear somebody yelling a Walston to get off the bridge near the end. 

Below are two excerpts from the video

Video shows how fast water came up along one river in the flood zone. It went from a placid stream to something akin to a tsunami within an hour.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Same videographer, showing the house that came downstream in the video above. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Sunday Evening Update: Now 29 Consecutive Vermont Weekends With Precipitation. Record Could Be Tied Next Weekend

Radar image from 1p.m. Sunday shows some small
showers in the Champlain Valley, including one that
deposited just 0.01 inches of rain at the National
Weather Service office in South Burlington. 
That makes this the 29th weekend in a row
with at least some precipitation, The record
for the most consecutive such weekends is 30.

 Shortly after 1 p.m. today, a  dying shower passed over the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

The shower deposited just 0.01 inches of rain, so little you'd hardly notice it.  No biggie.

Except in one respect it was, 

Contrary to many weather forecasts ahead of the weekend, the streak of consecutive Vermont weekends with rain has not ended. 

As measured in Burlington, we now have had 29 consecutive weekends with at least a trace of precipitation. 

The record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow is 30,  from September 1 1934 to March 23, 1935.

On Friday, it looked like it this weekend would be a lock for no rain.  High pressure that brought us our generally sunny, comfortable Fourth of July would slowly slide off to the east, ensuring it would warm up but also keep any frontal systems with their showers at bay. 

That high pressure delivered on the predictions that Sunday would turn out partly sunny, hot and humid.  However, the high pressure was far enough south so that the subtlest disturbances in the atmosphere could work with the humidity to pop up some widely scattered shower and thunderstorms. 

Breezes off of Lake Champlain can sometimes trigger scattered showers and storms in humid weather. They create a sort of mini "cold front" at the boundary between the cool lake breeze and hotter inland air.

That appears to be what happened on the western shore of Lake Champlain before 1 p.m. Sunday. A few small downpours formed on the New York side of the pond, along the boundary between lake breezes and the hot and humid land. Prevailing winds then took these showers eastward across the lake. 

The showers weakened as the crossed the lake, having lost that boundary between cool and hot. But the one of them held together long enough to deposit that bit of rain at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  

After the shower departed, the sun came back out and temperatures rose above 90 degrees for the fifth time so far this summer. 

Before climate change, Burlington used to average about four or five 90s per summer, but in the past two or three decades, days of 90 degree heat have become more frequent.  

It's too soon to know whether it will rain next weekend to tie the record, and then rain again the following weekend to break it. Early indications suggest there might be some weather disturbances around next weekend that could create some more hit and miss showers. 

As always we shall see! 

Heat And Storms: Must Be July In Vermont, Also, Will This Be First Rain Free Weekend Since Last Year

A small sea of day lilies in St. Albans, Vermont this
morning gear up for a hot, humid Sunday. 

 It seemed strange Saturday morning waking up to cool temperatures in the 50s and finding parts of Vermont were under a heat advisory. 

But that heat advisory is indeed in effect for this afternoon in the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and some low elevations in southwestern Vermont today as we get ready for a brief but pretty strong squirt of hot weather.

The surging heat struggling to make it toward Vermont Saturday as a weak warm front lingered to our north in Quebec. 

That sent some clouds down our way in the afternoon, tempering readings that had been expected to reach the mid-80s. Instead, at least in northern Vermont in was in the 70s to near 80.  

A few of those northern Vermont clouds yielded sprinkles. A few rain drops fell late Saturday afternoon here in St. Albans. So in a sense, that ruined the chances of having our first precipitation-free weekend since mid-December. 

But not officially. Not so much as a single raindrop fell at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, which is where this rainy weekend streak is being measured. So the 28 consecutive weekends with precipitation will end today unless at rains at the NWS office.

TODAY 

It could actually rain in Burlington today, which is a change from previous forecasts, though odds are still somewhat tilted against showers or storms there today.  

This morning, many of us woke up to a fairly comfortable dawn. Temperatures bottomed out near 60 in most places in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley. . Lows this morning in the Champlain Valley were in the armer low 70s. 

Temperature and humidity will rapidly increase through this morning as the hot blast of air flows in. In areas where the heat advisory is in effect, actual temperatures should hit the low 90s with a heat index in the upper 90s. 

Elsewhere in Vermont it will be uncomfortably hot, too.  It won't be as bad as that extreme, record breaking hot spell on June 23-24, but you will still want to take it easy.

The change in the forecast is the risk of a few thunderstorms this afternoon, especially over the northern half of the state. Previous forecast had indicated too much sinking air and dry conditions high overhead for any storms or showers to form.  

Now, we're not so sure. Some computer models have scattered storms developing while others have practically nothing this afternoon. It's a waiting game to see which ones are correct.  Already, an odd little downpour formed seemingly out of nowhere around  St. Albans shortly after  9 a.m. this morning. 

Almost anytime you have heat and humidity, there's always a chance a storm could fire up. If you have outdoor plans today, go ahead and enjoy, but just be ready to seek shelter inside a building, away from potential lightning, just in case.

MONDAY

There's a much better chance of showers and storms Monday as a weak cold front slowly sinks southward and approaches us from Quebec.

It'll still be very warm and quite humid, with temperatures in the 80s, with low 90s south. With the cold front pushing into that, we could get some decent storms. 

There's a fairly low but still real chance a couple storms could be severe, and an equally low but real chance we could have a few local flash flood issues. 

The biggest threat would be a microburst here or there. A microburst works as follows: 

Strong updrafts feed thunderstorms. Those updrafts also suspend lots of rain drops and hail stones up in the storm. Some storms will reach a point at which the updraft collapses, and all that rain comes down in a  great, high speed gush of downward moving air and water.

That gush hits the ground and causes an small swath of damaging winds and torrential rains. The damage area from these things are usually at most a mile or two wide and a few miles long. But they mean business!

Individual storms Monday should have a fast enough forward motion to prevent flash floods. The problem is the cold front itself will just be crawling southward at a snails pace.

Which means you could get one thunderstorm after another traveling west to east over the same path just south of the cold front. If that happens, a particular spot could get a few thunderstorms, and enough downpours to cause some local flash floods. At this point, it looks unlikely for Monday, but still definitely possible. 

The best chances of storms are in the northern half of Vermont, which will be closer to the front. 

BEYOND MONDAY

The cold front, such as it is, will still be struggling through southern Vermont Tuesday, so the best chances of more storms are down that way.  One slight wild card is soon to be former Tropical Storm Chantal.

It came ashore in South Carolina early today with top winds of 50 mph. Not a huge storm. Chantal's remnants are forecast move northeastward along the coast into or near southern New England midweek. 

Former Chantal's path could possibly slow the cold front down even more. We'll see.

In any event, this isn't exactly a powerhouse cold front. Temperatures for the rest of the week will remain near or a little warmer than normal for the rest of the week. We might get a bit of a break from the humidity Wednesday, but it will be brief.

It looks like humid, unsettled weather will probably return by Thursday.  

Texas Flood Tragedy News Keeps Getting Worse, Dozens Dead, Many Missing; And How It Happened

Aftermath of the Texas flood. At last report at least
27 people had been confirmed dead, and that toll
was expected to rise

 I don't even know where to begin to start with the immense flood tragedy in the Hill Country of Texas, northwest of San Antonio. 

As I wrote this early Saturday afternoon, CBS was reporting 27 deaths so far - 18 adults and nine children. 

A lot of people are still missing -- officials haven't yet told us how many. We know about a dozen people, mostly children are missing from a Camp Mystic, a childrens' camp along the Guadalupe River.

If you try really hard you get glean some good news out of the tragedy. As of Saturday morning, around 850 people had been rescued. There have been 160 air rescues, and as of this writing, swarms of aircraft, drones and boats were looking for more people. 

There have been some amazing tales of survival. KENS in San Antonio reported one woman had been swept 20 miles downstream and over four dams before being rescued from a cypress tree today. The woman reportedly had just minor injuries. 

While I'm sure there will be other tales of survival, I'm dreading what the final death toll might look like. Not to mention the extreme damage to homes and businesses through a big part of central Texas. 

HOW IT HAPPENED

The Texas tragedy had its roots in Tropical Storm Barry, a completely forgettable, weak tropical storm that splashed ashore in northeastern Mexico last Sunday. 

Barry drew extremely humid air into Texas - extraordinarily steamy even by Texas standards. A small drifting low pressure system over central Texas drew in and consolidated that moisture.  This is Texas Hill country, so the winds were forced to rise upward as ti traveled from the Gulf of Mexico to the   rising elevations west of San Antonio, helping to unleash the floods.

This upslope flow has happened there frequently and has often caused floods,  Enough to this area of Texas is sometimes known as flash flood alley. 

The upslope flow, the remnants of Barry, the subtle low pressure system, the extreme humidity all converged over the Guadalupe River drainage basin and its surroundings. And just sat there. The result was extreme rainfall. 

The fact that a crucial ingredient to this tragedy was a former tropical storm shows that people are not necessarily safe after a tropical storm or hurricane makes landfall.  These things can produce floods far from the where the system came ashore. 

Even here in Vermont. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl were a key ingredient of the extreme floods last  July 10-11 in the Green Mountain State.  

Back in 1995, another fairly lame tropical storm named Dean came ashore in Texas, much like Beryl did. Even though Dean was weak, its remnants interacted with a stalled weather front to produce severe flooding across northern and central Vermont - nearly 2,000 miles from where it made landfall. 

We also have to remind ourselves that climate change has made downpours and storms often more intense than they otherwise would have been decades ago. I do not know to what extent climate change influenced this flood, but I suspect it was at least a small factor. 

THE FLOOD FORECAST AND NOAA CUTBACKS

Some officials in Texas are blaming cutbacks at NOAA and the National Weather Service because of the Trump administration and is DOGE federal worker slash and burn program earlier this year.  Their claim is the forecast underplayed the amount of rain that ultimately fell. 

Those DOGE cutbacks might well cause forecasting errors and in fact might have already done so in other circumstances.  

As Texas meteorologist Matt Lanza explains in his blog The Eyewall, the flash flood was well forecasted, even if the amount of rain that actually fell was unimaginable. 

National Weather Service Forecasts on Thursday gave the region a slight risk of flash flooding, which might have created a false sense of security. Lanza said some high resolution forecast models predicted the huge amounts of rain that in fact materialized.  In hindsight (my opinion here) those models should have perhaps been taken more seriously. But hindsight is of course 20/20.

In any event, the National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings shortly before midnight Thursday as the rains began to fall in earnest. In the early morning hours, the NWS declared issued flash flood emergencies, which triggers automatic warnings on everybody's cell phones.

Lanza said the NOAA budget cutbacks did not appear to play a role in this tragedy. Much has been made of cutbacks in weather balloon launches, which offer critical information on impeding storms. The National Weather Service office in Del Rio, Texas, and data from those launches helped prompt the NWS issue those dire "hair on fire" flash flood warnings. 

Then the question was, how were those flash flood warnings received? Or were they?

A blame game has already started. 

Per the Associated Press: 

'AccuWeather, a private weather forecasting business said it also issued flash flood warnings and blamed camp directors for the tragedy. "These warmings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety,' "

As noted, this part of Texas is particularly prone to flash flooding. Lanza asks a great question: "Do we need to start thinking of every risk of flooding as a potential high-end event we should pre-evacuate the highest risk people (like children and elderly in floodways) for? Is that even practical?"

Some variation of that question is a great one to ask anywhere in the U.S., including here in Vermont. Climate change is helping make downpours more intense, and more likely to cause floods, or make floods worse than they otherwise would be.  

FLASH FLOODS DANGEROUS

We do know that flash floods are extremely dangerous, and the United State has a long history of flash flood tragedies.  

Perhaps the most famous and deadly flash flood in U.S. history was the Johnstown, Pennsylvania flood of 1889, which killed more than 2,200 people. Johnstown was hit again in 1977 in a flash flood that killed 84 people. 

Other examples of horrible flash floods include one that hit Rapid City, South Dakota and adjacent areas of the Black Hills in 1972, resulting in 238 lives lost. A flash flood in Big Thompson Canyon, Colorado in 1976 claimed 144 lives. 

Flash flooding in Kentucky killed 45 people in 2022.  Another flash flood in San Antonio on June 12 killed 13 people. 

Additional flash flooding has hit parts of central Texas today. As of early this afternoon a new flash flood emergency was in effect for Burnet County, Texas and parts of Williamson and Travis County. Six to 14 inches of rain fell there last night and this morning. 

This includes parts of the Austin metropolitan area,   The latest update is two people are dead and 10 are missing from this new round of flooding. 

It goes on and on. 

 

When Tornadoes Get Romantic

The bad pun people among us are calling
this a whirlwind romance. Storm chaser
Bryce Shelton proposes to Paige
Perdomas recently as a large
tornado loomed in the background
near Clark Lake, South Dakota.
She said yes 

 Nobody could resist calling this a whirlwind romance. 

On June 28, Bryce Shelton got down on one knee to propose marriage to Paige Berdomas. She said yes.

The reason why everybody knows about this is because of where the proposal took place. It was on a rural road near Clear Lake, South Dakota, which is no big deal. Except for the fact a large tornado was swirling nearby at the time.  

The now viral photo shows the proposal.

Both Shelton and Berdomas are storm chasers, two of the now-seemingly zillions of people who roam the Plains, South and Midwest in the spring and early summer, hunting down tornadoes and severe storms. 

The two first found each other online in the chaser community then finally met up one day in Iowa. They've been partners in storm chasing since. 

On the day of the tornado/proposal, the couple had been hanging out around Fargo, North Dakota, waiting for forecasted storms to develop. 

Finally, a promising storm popped up near Watertown, South Dakota about halfway between Fargo and Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and the chase was on. The storm eventually spun off the Clear Lake tornado, and by extension the proposal. 

The proposal had to be near a tornado. That was the rule.  

"She has always told me that if I was gonna ask her to marry me, she wants it be in front of a tornado," Shelton told USA Today. 

The whole thing at first glance looks kind of AI-generated, but in this case the proposal - and the tornado behind them, was very real. The tornado was more photogenic than most. In fact, it was among the most photographed twisters of 2025 so far. 

Which made the proposal photo perfect. 

To be fair, the real proposal was captured on a live stream with a tornado in the background. Storm chaser Brian Copic re-created the moment a short time later after a second tornado touched down. That's the photo you see in this post. 

The couple are hoping for calmer weather on their actual wedding day. "No tornadoes for the wedding. I want to wear a pretty dress," she said. 

Another romantic tornado. This time at a wedding 
ceremony in eastern New Mexico back in late May.

 I do have mixed emotions about this. The tornado also destroyed somebody's house, damaged others and injured a man. I guess people can find both joy and tragedy in the same event. 

This isn't the first marriage-related tornado incident I've seen. 

Tornadoes have been been known to be wedding crashers every once in a great while. 

On May 25, during an outdoor wedding in eastern New Mexico, a tornado touched down some distance behind the venue. 

Wedding photographer Chesnea Clemens spotted the tornado, then realized it wasn't headed in their direction, so they didn't have to take cover now if not sooner.

Instead, she hustled the couple to spot with a view of the tornado. The happy couple kissed under dark skies while the tornado twirled behind them. "Nothing says for better or worse like saying I do with Mother Nature throwing down in the background," Clemmons posted on social media.

As cool as these incidents are, if there are wedding bells in your future, I hope  your big day has clear, calm weather.