Big Heat Waves Hitting Large Parts Of World, Are We Next?

When you see a weather pattern like this in the
summer with a big ridge or northward bulge in
the jet stream over the Northeast, expect a heat
wave. This is one forecast for next Tuesday, 
though computer models are varying on the
strength and duration of the hot spell. 

With climate change taking hold more and more, dangerous, record breaking heat waves have been hitting different parts of the world each summer in the past few years.  

It's only June, but the deadly extreme heat fest for 2025 has already started here on Earth.

 What strikes me the most is that there are currently so many record heat waves going on in different parts of the globe simultaneously. 

There's always a heat wave somewhere in the summer, but the fact that places as diverse as Japan, France, and Kuwait are breaking all time record highs for the month of June all at the same time is pretty unsettling.

We in Vermont could get at least a taste of the hot weather next week. And I think all time record heat will hit the Green Mountain State within the next few years.  More on that in a bit. 

WORLDWIDE HEAT

First, we'll look at some of the incredible heat withering different parts of the world. Much of this information comes from Maximiliano Hererra, a climatologist who tracks worldwide heat waves.

Our first visit is to Kuwait, since the strongest heat was there. Kuwait is an extraordinary hot nation anyway, but this is ridiculous. At last report, the following Kuwaiti figures haven't been confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization.

But if these temperatures are real, they're insane. 

If the 130 degree temperature in Kuwait is confirmed, it would tie the reliable record for the world's hottest temperature on record, which was 130 degrees in Furnace Creek, Death Valley, California on July 9, 2021.

The widely reported hottest temperature isn 134 degrees in Death Valley on July 10, 1913, but there are questions about the reliability of that long-ago reading. 

EUROPE HEAT

A heat wave is building in Europe, too, with record high temperatures already reported in France and Germany. A few cities have already set record highs for the entire month of June. One town in France has hit 100 degrees over the pst couple of days. It's been as hot as 96 degrees in Germany.

Nights in parts of western Europe have been sultry, giving no real relief from the heat. Overnight lows in much of Germany over the weekend were in the low 70s. 

Mertola, Portugal on Sunday reached 105 degrees, hottest for so early in the season. Parts of Spain broiled over the weekend in temperatures as high as 107 degrees.

ASIA

At least 23 weather stations in China have broken their all time record high temperatures for the month of June. In Japan, at least a dozen cities have set record highs for the entire month of June, with readings reaching the upper 90s.  Parts of Indonesia, India and Pakistan are also reporting unprecedented June heat. 

UNITED STATES

The eastern United States is being plagued by persistent storminess that has led to some terrible flash flooding in the central Appalachians. Those floods are expected to continue for the next couple of days, but a new element is about to be added.

Forecasts call for a strong, hot ridge of high pressure to develop over the East early next week. At least a some record high temperatures are expected from the Plains to the East Coast. It's possible a few cities could see their all-time record for the month of June threatened. 

Some computer models depict insanely hot weather in the Northeast early next, though I think a few of these are overdone.  Some runs of the European model bring New York City to an all time high of 107 degrees. The Euro depicts highs up to 101 degrees in southeast Vermont and 97 degrees as far north as Burlington.

I doubt it will get that hot. I think the European model is exaggerating. But the way things are going around the world, who knows?   

VERMONT FORECAST

A taste of very warm, oppressive weather will arrive tomorrow and Thursday, with high humidity and temperatures well up into the 80s.  This won't be anywhere near any record highs, but it will be our most solid introduction to heat and humidity yet this year.

Showers and thunderstorms both tomorrow and Thursday will help hold temperatures well under 90 degrees, but will help keep the humidity incredibly uncomfortable.

We get a brief break Friday and Saturday with high temperatures both days in the 70s. But then the heat should begin to build back up starting Sunday, when it should get into the 80s with increasing humidity. 

Most forecasts have much of Vermont in the low 90s next Monday and Tuesday. There's a slight chance those outlier models of extreme, record breaking heat early next week are correct, but for now, I'm really doubting that. 

The heat next week should be mercifully brief, as temperatures by midweek should drop some.  But only to levels that are normal, or a little warmer than normal for this time of year. 

The long range weather pattern forecast also suggests that strong heat will spend most of the rest of June and probably beyond lurking not all that far to our south and west.  If the wind swings in the right direction, we have the potential for more big oppressive hot spells through the summer. 

NOAA forecasts for this summer in New England have consistently pointed toward a hotter than normal summer. 

FUTURE HEAT

While June and all-time heat records have been falling worldwide in recent years, the all-time hot records for Vermont remain distinctly old fashioned.

The hottest on record for anywhere in Vermont still stands at the 105 degrees recorded down in Vernon way back on July 4, 1911. The hottest it's ever gotten in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944.

Now that climate change is increasingly in our lives, I think it's just a matter of time before those old records are broken. And I suspect it could come within just a matter of a few to several years.

We've had some incredible, record smashing hot spells in Vermont in recent years, but they have tended to not come in the summer.  It's just a roll of the dice when they hit. 

In Burlington, records go back to the 1880s. But the records for hottest temperature on record for the entire months of February, May, September, November and December have all happened since 2002 - so pretty recently in the grand scheme of things. Just last Halloween we shattered the record for hottest for so late in the season - 78 degrees on October 31.

That's why I think we are close to breaking are all-time record highs. An intense mid-summer unprecedented heat wave feels inevitable in this age of climate change. 

Burlington National Service Radar Won't Be Working Much Of This Week

 A head's up:

A National Weather Service radar image, I used this 
one from Fargo, North Dakota because there were
no rainstorms to show on the NWS local radar,
The NWS radar from the Burlington office will
be down most of this week for repairs, 

If you're used to checking out the National Weather Service Burlington web page, note the weather radar won't be up and running  most of this week. 

So during this time, you won't be able to see the location and direction of any rain or storms that develop in the area.  

You'll have to find alternative weather radar images during that time.  

The National Weather Service radar is down because they need to repair the radar dome in Colchester. The radar that services Albany, New York will also be turned off for repairs. 

The radar installations look like giant white balls atop a tower.

 Strong winds and temperature extremes over time damage some of the panels on these radar structures, so the panels have to be be replaced.  Those pieces can crack, or develop leaks, or even fall apart.

Damaged panels interfere with radar's ability to receive and transmit information, according to the National Weather Service. 

So the repairs are needed. The radar serving northern and central Vermont and northeastern New York will be down starting today. It should be up and running again sometime Thursday. 

While the repairs are  happening, showers and thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday around the area.

A few of the showers and storms could have fairly heavy rain Wednesday. Depending on cloud cover and other factors, we could have a few strong storms and spots of torrential rain Thursday as well. 

Given that,  let's find those alternative ways to find weather radar to keep an eye on any storms that may or may not be headed your way while the National Weather Service fixes their radar. 

Television station WPTZ's radar is quite interactive, which is nice. If you click the "layers" button on the lower right, you have options of seeing what current temperatures, dew point and wind speeds are like, along with  rainfall amounts in the past 24 hours and other information. 

The radar for television station WCAX-TV is set up in a very similar fashion to WPTZ and is just as good. 

The WVNY radar doesn't seem quite as interactive, but does cover a wide area, which is good. 

Of course the big dawgs like The Weather Channel and AccuWeather have weather radar you can use, too. 

All of these radar options are good, but I'll be happy to get the National Weather Service radar back. Only because that's the one I'm used to, I guess.

I wouldn't really recommend downloading a weather app onto your phone, as some of them seem a little dubious to me.  

Nation's Flash Flood Season Off To A Bad Start

The remains of a vehicle are wrapped
around a San Antonio bridge abutment
 after it  was swept away by intense
 flash flooding early Thursday. 

 Deadly flash floods can happen anywhere in the United States at any time of year.

But the humid days of summer tend to bring these tragedies on most frequent. As we in Vermont have seen in the last two summers. 

Hot, humid air can hold a lot of water, and even a small weather disturbance under the right conditions can release torrents, creating flash floods almost in an instant.

Climate change has made this whole situation worse. The hotter, often more humid air brought to his by a warmer atmosphere can store more water in the air than ever before. Which in general leads to more intense rains than we are used to seeing.

It's only mid-June, and we're already starting in with the local, but deadly flash floods in different parts of the natiom

The worst of it so far was in and around San Antonio early Thursday. 

Slow moving thunderstorms settled over the San Antonio area, dumping eight inches of rain in just a few hours, with four inches of rain in just one hour between 3 and 4 a.m. Thursday. 

The flash flood killed 13 people, mostly in cars abruptly swept off a highway into raging waters.  

NBC News reports that at least 15 vehicles were swept into rapidly rising and rapidly flowing water on or near Perrin Beitel Road in San Antonio. At least 10 people from those vehicles were rescued. But other cars were found far downstream, their wreckage sometimes wrapped around bridge abutments or other debris. 

At least 70 water rescues were performed throughout the city. 

San Antonio lies just east of a an escarpment that sometimes helps trap Gulf of Mexico moisture in the region, which can sometimes get dumped in intense thunderstorms. San Antonio is the nation's seventh largest city.

Miles of concrete and asphalt and development gives no place for water to soak in, so downpours rush off in great gushes through parts of the city. Plus, of course, those more intense climate-change driven downpours make things worse.   

It hasn't just been San Antonio lately.   

 Severe flooding hit in and near Wheeling, West Virginia Saturday. At least three people were killed in this flooding and others are missing. Authorities performed numerous water rescues.  Some areas around Wheeling received 2.5 to 4 inches of rain within a half hour. 

On Friday, a flash flood emergency and particularly dangerous situation was declared around Evansville, Indiana. Three to six inches of rain fell within a couple hours there, instantly flooding streets. Numerous people had to be rescued from stranded cars. 

Also on Friday and Saturday, flash floods hit scattered parts of the central Appalachians.

Sunday morning, Oklahoma City was under a flash flood warning for the second time this month. Meteorologists were deeply concerned Sunday about a risk of flooding today in North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.   

Even before summer started, it's been a bad year for flooding in the U.S. Extreme flooding hit areas in and around Kentucky back in February and again in April. 

So far, we in Vermont have been spared the worst of the flooding, but we've already had our share of problems in 2025.  Flash flooding on May 17 damaged roads and homes in Waitsfield, Warren, Hartford, White River Junction and other towns, 

Roads in southeastern Vermont were damaged in flash flooding on June 6-7.   

Looking ahead at the nation's upcoming flash flood prospects, a humid, sluggish airmass is forecast to linger over much of the eastern and southern United States for the next several days.  At least scattered instances of flash flooding are possible daily in various parts of the eastern two thirds of the U.S.

For us in Vermont, the next chance of any flood problems would be this Thursday. It's possible downpours expected Thursday could be intense enough to create isolated instances of flash flooding. However, it's too soon to know for sure.  

Coolish Stretch Of June Weather In Vermont/New England Will End Soon

Vermont had weather winners and losers once again
on Saturday. In this satellite photo taken in the
early afternoon, it was clear near the Canadian border
while the rest of northern Vermont had a mix of
sun and puffy clouds, But southern Vermont was
socked in by the clouds once again, as so often
has been the case lately on Saturdays.

 In recent years, we've had some awful spells of rather intense early season heat and humidity in May and the first half of June in Vermont. 

Summers have been starting earlier than they used to, in large part due to climate change.   

This year so far has been more temperate. It did make it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on June 5, but spells of very warm, humid weather have been brief.

That might be about to change. Warm, very humid air looks like it will flow into northern New England by mid-week. 

After that, there might be a brief cooldown or two, but the overall weather pattern is trending toward warmer, more summery conditions.

THIS WEEKEND

It was a tale of two Vermonts again on Saturday. After some early morning sprinkles, it was gorgeous across northern parts of the state yesterday. We had sunshine, deep blue skies finally free of the smoky haze, a few puffy clouds to decorate the skies and comfortable temperatures in the low 70s.

Meanwhile, southern Vermont was socked in with the clouds most of the day.

Today will be a little more fair to everyone. It'll be partly sunny almost statewide  -- the clouds will sort of be in and out all day -  and there's the slightest chance of a brief shower. But the vast majority of us will stay dry.

An exception would be far southern Vermont, near the Massachusetts border, They're closer to a stalled weather front that's been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic States for days. So clouds will probably dominate out of today in place like Bennington and Brattleboro.

Then changes are afoot

THIS WEEK AND BEYOND

You'll notice the humidity rising day by day early this week from pretty low levels today to really sticky by Wednesday and Thursday.

The dew point is a good indicator of how icky it feels out there. Today, those dew points will be in the 50s, which is comfortable. On Monday, they'll edge closer to 60.  That's still OK, but you'll notice it a little if you're really exerting yourself outdoors. 

Tuesday's dew points will be in the low 60s, which is a little sticky, then in the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. There's your ick factor right there. 

Actual daily temperatures will climb, too, from the lows 70s today, upper 70s Monday, near 80 Tuesday and in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday. 

When you combine such warmth and humidity, you often get showers and thunderstorms. At this point, those seem a safe bet Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too soon to tell, however, if any of those storms would get on the strong side. It's also a little early to figure out if any of those storms will dump a bit too much rain. 

Those details will be ironed in the coming days. 

Forecasts beyond this coming Thursday are a little more questionable, only because a lot can change in the atmosphere over four or five days. Those changes sometimes throw longer range forecasts way off.

But an early guess suggests a brief cooldown coming next weekend (down to near normal mid and upper 70s).  Then, some computer models bring in an even hotter few days right after next weekend. We could have a spell of 90 degree weather in a little over a week from now.

Summer seems to be here, folks.  

Vermont Weekend Rain Streak Lives On, But Weather Will Be Decent. Meanwhile, Baked, Weird Alaska

The sky over St. Albans, Vermont around 7 a.m. tells the
weekend weather story. The darker clouds on the left
are toward the south, the blue skies are to the north.
Those blue skies will spend today fighting their 
way southward across the most of the 
Green Mountain State today. 

The long streak of consecutive weekends with rain or snow lives on in Vermont! This is now officially the 26th consecutive weekend with precipitation in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Um, yay?  

A period of light rain early this morning in Burlington deposited just 0.05 inches of rain.  That's actually a tiny bit more than the trace Burlington had last weekend. 

Up here in St. Albans we had just a few raindrops around 6 a.m.today. Not even really enough to make the driveway look wet.

But don't worry, this will still be the nicest weather weekend Vermont has seen in ages. Even if conditions aren't perfect. 

First of all, it was such a relief on Friday to look over at the Green Mountains and they looked......green.

The main thing was you could actually see them, as the wildfire smoke that has been plaguing our area finally got flushed out by clean northerly winds yesterday. There was so little haze left that you could clearly see the lush greenness of our hills and forests in all their summer glory. 

FORECAST

The great news is we're getting the rain out of the way early and we can go on with the weekend. Hell, most people were still sleeping when it rained around here early today, so it doesn't matter. 

Overcast skies will slowly clear north to south today.  Blue sky was already starting to show up over St. Albans as of 7 a.m.

The north should have a pleasant, largely sunny day. It'll take longer for the clouds to clear in the south. If you're down around Brattleboro or places like that, it could take most or all of the day before you get some sun. 

It'll be cool for the season today, with highs only in the low 70s under the sun north and 60s under the clouds south. 

Tomorrow (Sunday) still looks pretty damn good, too. Not perfect, but good. It'll be partly sunny once again, with more clouds predominating in the south again. It'll stay cool with highs only in the low 70s.

There's a very slight chance of a shower Sunday.  But if you do get unlucky enough to see rain on Sunday it would probably amount to just a some sprinkles that last a few minutes.  

It still looks like it will get warmer and more humid as we go through the upcoming week. The ever-present risk of showers and storms will be there, mostly in the muggy air Wednesday and Thursday, 

Over this weekend, you might see just barely some hints of smoke from time to time in the atmosphere over Vermont this weekend, but it will be much, much better than it's been. Air quality here in Vermont will be fine.

For now, winds are taking much of Canadian wildfire smoke northwestward toward Alaska. 

AN ALASKAN EXCURSION

As an aside, things have gotten strange up in Alaska. On top of the smoke, we now have a baked Alaska situation, if you will. A first-ever heat advisory is in effect for tomorrow and Monday for a big stretch of central and eastern Alaska. Temperatures will be between 85 and 90 degrees, which isn't that bad by our standards but torrid for Alaska. 

Fairbanks, Alaska is forecasting high temperatures in the 80s daily through at least Friday. Normal highs there this time of year are in the upper 60s.

Meanwhile, much of far northern Alaska is under a flood watch. The snow pack up until now on Alaska's North Slope has been unusually deep and thick  and persistent for this late in the season. The big warm spell now moving into Alaska will rapidly melt this snow to cause flooding. There's still actually ice on the rivers up there, too, so ice jam flooding would also be a problem. 

So, complain all you want about Vermont's stretch of rainy weekends. At least we got rid of our ice jam and snow melt flood issues way back in mid-March. 

Forecasters Change Their Tune: Maybe A Decent Vermont Weather Weekend For Once?

High clouds coming from the south Friday morning
battle dry air coming from the north over St. Albans,
Vermont. Also notice there's much less wildfire haze
in the sky. It looks like the dry air will mostly but
not completely win this weekend, giving Vermont
the rare treat of a decent if not perfect weather weekend.

Could it be?

Meteorologists have backed way off on the gloomy, damp projections they had for this Saturday and their accompanying "meh" forecast for Sunday.  

Not they're calling for something that is now rare in Vermont. A fairly decent weather weekend. 

It won't be perfect, mind you. A little rain could easily show up on Saturday, at least in parts of the state will be rather cloudy on Saturday. And skies won't necessarily be crystal clear on Sunday.

Plus, it'll be noticeably on the cool side for mid-June.  So it won't be a spectacular beach weekend. But a comfortable one for other outdoor activities, which is nice. 

On top of that, you'll be able to breathe some relatively fresh air for a change. The wildfire smoke that's been giving us lots of haze and bad visibility and rather unhealthy air to breathe will be greatly diminished. If not almost gone entirely. 

The streak of 25 consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least in Burlington, might actually end Saturday and Sunday.

There is a 50/50 shot at some light rain Saturday morning in the Champlain Valley, which would keep the streak going.  

THE DETAILS:

Just as meteorologists have been saying for days now, a west-to-east, nearly stalled weather front should drape itself from the Midwest to the somewhere around the mid-Atlantic States this weekend. 

At first, it was thought moisture streaming up and over that front would give us a chilly, rainy Saturday. But that moisture, at least up here in Vermont, appears as if it will be sputtering. And that moisture will be battling dry air that will insist on coming south from Quebec over the weekend. 

The result will only be some light showers. And most of those light showers would come through tonight and the first half of Saturday.  

As has been the case recently, the weather up north will be better than conditions in southern Vermont. 

Whatever rain falls should be light everywhere. But it would range from maybe just a few raindrops up by the Canadian border to perhaps as much as 0.2 inches down around Bennington and Brattleboro.

The showers should tend to dry up everywhere in Vermont Saturday afternoon, but more so in the north. Clouds will linger south, but some sun should break through north. Which means it will actually be a bit warmer the further north you go.

Parts of southern Vermont should only make it into the low 60s for highs. Low elevations north of Route 2 could reach the low 70s.  Normal highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday

Sunday should have some sun, some clouds, and reach the low 70s, so again, not bad! There is a low chance of a scattered light shower here and there, but most of us will stay dry. 

Looking ahead to next week, it looks like day by day it will slowly turn warmer and more humid. Every day holds a chance of showers, but skies should be rain-free most of the time.  We'll have to keep a careful eye Wednesday and Thursday.

By then, it will be quite warm and quite humid, which could set the stage for some risk of hefty thunderstorms Wednesday and especially Thursday. We don't know whether that will happen just yet. That would depend upon the timing of weak weather fronts, sunshine and wind direction through the atmosphere around Thursday. 

But at the very least, expect to give your air conditioner a bit of a workout toward the middle and end of next week. 

 

Northern Vermont Actually Slightly Dry This Month As We Keep Complaining About Wet Weather

After getting plenty of rain in May, these peonies in
my St. Albans, Vermont gardens seemed to be 
enjoying the June sunshine this morning. 

We in Vermont have pretty much spent the entire spring and the first part of June complaining about the wet weather.  

It has been wet, of course.  The National Centers for Environmental Information says Vermont had its second wettest May on record, as one example.

But a funny thing happened as we got into June. 

Believe it or not,  northern Vermont has been a bit on the dry side so far this month, and that trend looks like it will continue for perhaps up the next six or seven days at least. Maybe more. 

Don't worry. Northern Vermont is definitely not going into drought. The ground is still pretty damp and river flows are certainly healthy. 

Plus, it's still raining in northern Vermont, just not as hard as it did in April and May. In fact, I heard a brief downpour on my roof in St. Albans in the hours before dawn today. Burlington picked up a tiny bit of rain after midnight, too. 

Through yesterday, Burlington has has 0.62 inches of rain so far this month, which is a little less than half of what would normally have fallen so far in June.  

Montpelier has only had about a half inch of rain so far in June, which is a full inch on the light side for this point in the month.  St. Johnsbury has also had less rain than average for June so far.

Southern Vermont still continues to slog through wet weather, though. Parts of southeast Vermont even suffered some flash flood damage last Friday. 

Even places near and south of Route 4 that had no flooding have been pretty wet in June. Bennington has had 2.44 inches of rain so far this month, agains an average of 1.39 inches through June 11. 

Union Village Dam in Thetford, a little north of White River Junction, has had 3.11 inches so far in June, against an average of about an inch and half. (I'm not counting the 1.75 inches of rain listed on June 1 in Thetford, as that rain actually fell on May 31. The measurement was just taken on June 1 when somebody checked the rain gauge there).

OUTLOOK

The trend toward a wetter south will continue this weekend, to an extent.

Meteorologists have backed off on how much rain Vermont will see this weekend. Still, the south looks like it will be a little wetter than the north. The bottom half of Vermont probably will get a quarter to a half inch of rain through Sunday, while the top half is scheduled to see less than a quarter inch.

All this doesn't tell us how the month will ultimately end up. Rainfall is incredibly variable in the summer, since most of it comes from hit or miss showers and thunderstorms. 

Also, things could even out so that the south might get drier and the north could get wetter. Who knows?

After this weekend, the next shot of rain come Wednesday. Early guesses are that next week's rains will focus a little more on the north than the south, but of course, we can't be sure about that yet.  

Long range forecasts going to about the end of the month slightly lean toward a somewhat wetter than average second half of June in Vermont. But as we all know, we need to take weather forecasts more than five days out or so with a Mount Mansfield-sized grain of salt. 

Beekmantown, NY Tornado Confirmed, Now, Mostly Nice Rest Of Week Leads To, Surprise! Saturday Rain

The same storm that produced a brief tornado in 
Beekmantown, New York, Tuesday passed overhead
in St. Albans, Vermont.  When it got here, it was
 a garden-variety thundershower with a brief downpour
and top wind gusts of around 25 mph. That sort of
funnel-ish shaped cloud you see wasn't a funnel at
all. Just a regular old rain cloud. The cloud you 
see in the photo was about as dangerous as
a fair weather cumulus on a sunny day. 

 The National Weather Service office in South Burlington confirmed last night that it was indeed a tornado in Beekmantown, New York Tuesday afternoon.  

It was a small one, but it was a tornado.  It was rated an EF-0, the lowest on a five-point scale. And it was brief. 

The Beekmantown tornado had top winds of 65 to 75 mph; was 100 yards wide and only traveled along the ground a half mile before dissipating. It was on the ground for a whole two minutes. 

It damaged a roof, knocked over some trees and blew objects like a trampoline around.

It was a very isolated incident, too. There were no other reports of severe thunderstorm damage anywhere else in northern New York or Vermont.  It was  weird and unexpected, too, as Tuesday's  overall weather set up did not really favor severe storms, never mind tornadoes.

This contrasts with last June 23, when we had what was for a Vermont a big time set up for a tornado or two.  We ended up having supercells, tornado warnings, wind damage and flash flooding on June 23, 2024, but no actual tornadoes. Though there was one in neighboring New Hampshire. 

We're done with severe storms for awhile, and it's on to typically mildly variable June weather. In fact the day to day changes in the weather over the next few days will be a little quicker and noticeable than usual for this time of year. 

TODAY

Sunshine this morning will mix with some clouds this afternoon. It'll be on the breezy side, and warm-ish, with highs in the 70s to around 80.  You'll notice some wildfire smoke around once again, but it shouldn't be as thick and awful as it was this past weekend. 

A few light showers might blow through northern areas tonight as a weak but windy for this time of year disturbance races through. It might not be a great evening and night to take a small boat or kayak onto the broad Lake Champlain.

THURSDAY

Another nice one! A little cooler than today, and continued a bit breezy.  You might see the smoke begin to diminish, too, The air flow will be starting to come down straight from the north. Much of the air we'll breathe late this week will originate in Quebec, where so far this summer there has not been many wildfires. 

The air had earlier been coming from the northwest, from Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where intense fires spewed a lot of smoke. Actually those fires have calmed down, at least for a little while. More intense fires have erupted in northern Alberta, northeast British Columbia and parts of the Northwest Territories of Canada,

That smoke could eventually get here later this month if the wind patterns favor it. But those fires are further away than the more recent ones. So maybe upcoming smoky days won't be as bad? Don't count on it, but we can always hope for something.

FRIDAY

Cool for the season. Highs will only make it to within a few degrees either side of 70 degrees. We'll have some increasing clouds, too. But the air looks like it will be pretty clean.

SATURDAY

Oh yes. Saturday. The requirement we have rain on Saturday looks like it will hold after all. There is still a chance that far northern areas right near the Canadian border might escape the rain, but don't count on it.

It appears that once again, the rain will get heavier and heavier the further south you go in Vermont. Since we'll be on the north side of a weather front, and under clouds and likely rain, it'll be quite a cool one for this time of  year. That's on top of the damp weather.

Early hints suggest highs Saturday will only be in the 60 to 65 degree range. Normal highs in mid-June are in the mid-70s. 

Since Saturday is still three days away, there's still the chance the forecast could shift.  If we get extremely lucky, that weather front might set up a little further south, sparing at least some of us some rain. But don't count on it. 

BEYOND SATURDAY

There is some hope, but no guarantees that Sunday will be brighter, but still on the cool side. There are some hints Vermont will take another gradual turn toward warmer, more summery, more humid weather as we go through next week. We shall see! 

BREAKING: Likely Brief Tornado North Of Plattsburgh, NY This Afternoon In Otherwise Benign Line Of Storms

WCAX-TV meteorologist Jess Langlois shared this
radar image of today's storm in Beekmantown, 
New York. The bright shades of green and red
centered around Beekmantown shows strong winds
blowing in opposite directions in close proximity.
That is a sign of a tornado. 

A line of showers and thunderstorms - as expected - moved out of New York state into the Champlain Valley of Vermont  mid and late afternoon today. 

None of the storms appeared to be all that strong, and there were no warnings of severe thunderstorms.

Except:

It appears one of the storms along the line briefly got strong and started spinning.  It also appears to have touched off a brief tornado around Beekmantown, New York, about six miles north of Plattsburgh.  

According to WPTZ-TV meteorologist Tyler Jankowski,  noticeable rotation popped up around 3:38 pm along Route 22 near O'Neil Road and Duquette Road in Beekmantown.  Radar showed what is known as a couplet, which is winds blowing in opposite directions of each other in close proximity to each other. 

Meteorologist Jess Langlois of WCAX-TV also showed radar images, clearly showing a "couplet" on radar at that time 

That's a sign of a possible tornado. Radar also briefly indicate debris in the air. WPTZ also showed a video taken by Suzanne Drollette of what appears to be a weak tornado spinning behind some trees in Beekmantown, 

Video from WPTZ showed large sections of a roof blown off of what appears to be a house. Several trees and branches were blown down. 

The circulation seen on radar quickly dissipated and the storm continued on across Lake Champlain into Franklin County, Vermont. Once past Beekmantown, the storm looked like nothing special on radar. No obvious need for any severe storm warnings or alerts. 

That storm from Beekmantown eventually passed directly over my house in St. Albans, Vermont at around 4:45 p.m.. All I had was a couple flashes of lightning, some rumbles of thunder, a relatively brief downpour and a top wind gust at maybe 25 mph.  I didn't see any unusual looking clouds. Just a garden variety thundershower. 

The line of showers and thunderstorms continued into central Vermont by 6 p.m. No severe weather was associated with it, and it doesn't look like there will be any.

National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington were in Beekmantown as of 5:30 p.m. today to determine whether the damage they find there was indeed caused by a tornado.   Those meteorologist plan to release the results of their survey later tonight or tomorrow morning, 

By the way, this is not one of those cases in which a lack of staffing because of NOAA cutbacks caused National Weather Service meteorologists to miss it as it developed. It spun up so fast, and dissipated just as fast. If you blinked, you missed it. 

Also, the atmosphere did not appear to be primed to produce a tornado.  At worst, it seemed we were at risk of an isolated case or two of gusty straight line winds. 

A Few Vermont Thunderstorms Might Get A Bit Strong This Afternoon, Smoke Might Get In Your Eyes Again By Tomorrow

UPDATE 1 PM

These peonies in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens 
survived the weekend smoke and were getting a nice
drink of water this morning. This patch of peonies
was divided from some my grandmother planted
in West Rutland, Vermont way back in the early 1940s.

Unlike what I said this morning, Ii looks like there is now a chance a few thunderstorms in Vermont today could end up being strong to severe, But if we get anything with strong gusty winds, they will be few and far between.

Most of us will just get perhaps somewhat gusty storms with brief downpours, but nothing extreme.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has extended a marginal risk of storms into southern and central Vermont.

I actually think a strong storm could erupt anywhere in Vermont, But again those will be pretty isolated.

A broken line of thunderstorms had formed over central New York and were heading east toward Vermont.

The areas of rain in Vermont were not departing as fast as some forecasts suggested. If that trend continues, we might lose some of the instability that would keep the storms firing. Still a little sunshine in the gap between the rain in Vermont and the storms in New York might be just enough to keep thunderstorms rambunctious once they arrive in the Green Mountain State by mid-afternoon.

Meanwhile, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is maintaining a marginal risk of flash flooding today in Vermont.

Normally, the quick hitting downpours expected in some areas today would not cause trouble, But the soils are so soggy, especially in southern Vermont, that it takes less of a downpour than usual to create isolated trouble spots with flash flooding. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

The Vermont winds have shifted, the rains came and the air got cleaner as a result.

For now.  

South winds on Monday and overnight have pushed the smoke back north out of our hair. 

Two batches of showers, one coming through this morning, the other this afternoon, are also helping to freshen up i the air.  

Even better, today's rains look pretty benign.  Nothing scary out of the skies today.

There won't be enough rain for many additional flooding, like we had last Friday in southern Vermont. Though a few thunderstorms could be in the mix this afternoon, at this point it doesn't look like any of those will be severe,

This first batch of rain this morning is the remnants of what was some rough weather in Pennsylvania and western New York on Monday. Flash flooding and wind damage were scattered through that region. a tornado severely damaged some homes in Great Valley, New York, about 50 miles south of Buffalo.

By the time this mess reached Vermont as of 6:30 arm, today, there was no longer even any lightning with this batch of rain.   The worst we'll see out of this is maybe a brief downpour or two over the course of the morning, 

We'll probably see a brief break in the action around noon or early afternoon before a new line of showers and storms begins to enter northwestern Vermont toward  mid-afternoon. This will be with an actual cold front.

If there's an interval of sunshine after the first batch of showers goes through, that could power up the atmosphere enough to make some of the afternoon storms a little bit strong. 

Again, if that happens, it'll be nothing severe. In the worst cases, winds could get a little gusty but not extreme. Downpours would hit, then go away way before they have enough time to flood your friendly local brook or creek. 

This line of showers and storms will continue on into eastern Vermont while weakening somewhat this evening

SMOKY WEDNESDAY?

This will be one those so-called "cold fronts"  you often see in June and July in which the temperatures after they go through is a little warmer than the air ahead of the front. As you'd expect, the opposite is usually true. 

The high sun angle controls temperatures this time of  year much more than it would in the winter. Again, that makes sense.

Clouds today will  hold down temperatures, while sun that comes out behind the front will boost those readings. I guess you can call these weak summer "cold fronts" humidity fronts, since they do reduce humidity levels, but not necessarily the temperatures,

Bottom line, sunshine tomorrow could get us up to near or a little above 80 degrees in a few spots.

But that sunlight -  once again - will be slightly dimmed and its light turned a copper color by that smoke from Canadian forest fires. After all, the wind will be coming from the west and northwest, which would push the smoke in our direction.

It'll be quite a bit more breezy out there tomorrow than it was over the weekend. I'm thinking, or at least hoping, those breezes will mix the air more than that calm weekend air did. If that happens, that would keep at least some of the smoke higher up in the atmosphere, instead of choking us as light winds allows the smoke to settle into our valleys.   

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

It's hard to tell this far in advance how much smoke would be left later in the week. So we'll keep an eye on it. 

We are going to get into a cool spell, with highs by Friday and the weekend only in the 60s to low 70s.  Chilly high pressure in Quebec will be feeding that cool air our way.

There's a chance - just a chance - that the French-Canadian high pressure could be our friend this weekend. A stalled front dividing very humid air to the south and fresher, if sometimes smoky air to the north will set up west to east for several days starting Friday and perhaps last to next Tuesday or so.

Unfortunately, a lot of computer models as of this morning tell us that front would  get close enough to us Saturday to blossom out some rain for the umpteenth weekend in a row, especially in southern Vermont, 

But there is some hope that that high pressure in Canada might have enough oomph to suppress that rain just a little bit to our south. It's too soon to start rejoicing about that, as this drier weekend scenario is iffy as hell.  

 

Florida Meteorologist/Hurricane Expert Now Fears Storm Prediction Accuracy Gone With NOAA Cuts

Florida meteorologists John Morales, one of the nation's
top hurricane forecasters, worried on air that NOAA
cutbacks would mean critical hurricane forecasts 
would be less accurate this year, which in turn
would endanger lives

In the first couple of days of September, 2019, Category 5 Hurricane Dorian crawled through the Bahamas, causing extreme damage. 

Dorian seemed headed straight for Florida, and residents there began to panic. 

Florida meteorologist John Morales, and one of the nation's top hurricane experts, told his audience to relax. 

Morales reassured viewers that Dorian would make a sharp right turn just before reaching Florida, sparing the state from great harm. 

For non-meteorologists, a hurricane making such a sharp, sudden turn didn't sound plausible. But Morales was confident. 

And he was right. That sharp turn came on the afternoon of September 3, and Florida was more or less safe.

I'm bringing this up now because Morales was on the air as usual recently at NBC 6 in South Florida, one day earlier this month. This time, he his audience he no longer has the confidence that he could forecast a hurricane so precisely and so correctly like he did with Dorian

Morales' skill set is as good as ever. NOAA, which is responsible for providing the data for meteorologists like Morales, is not as good as ever. 

".... I am here to tell you that I am not sure that I can do that this year because of the cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general," Morales said on a June 9 broadcast on NBC 6 South Florida. 

The massive cuts the Trump administration has made to NOAA has led to staffing shortages at National Weather Service offices across the nation, including those in central and southern Florida. Fewer weather balloons are being launched to study the details of what the atmosphere is doing and how that atmosphere will steer storms, and how the strength of those storms change. 

Because of these developments, less data is being collected, "What we're starting to see is that the quality of the forecast is becoming degraded," Morales said. 

There's also a chance that we'll have fewer hurricane hunter flights into hurricanes. Those flights collect detailed data that really help forecasters pin down exactly where a hurricane will come ashore and how strong it will be once it gets there. 

"We may be flying blind, and we may not know exactly how strong a hurricane is before it reaches the coastline," Morales said.

He concluded by telling viewers to call their representatives and tell them these cost must be stopped.

TRUMP'S PEOPLE RESPOND, WHILE MUSK FADES

Unfortunately, I keep getting less and less trustful about the truthfulness of anything a federal spokesperson says under the Trump regime, but here goes:

People magazine, reaching out to NOAA, said a spokesperson said the National Hurricane Center "has a sufficient number of forecasters to fill mission-critical operational shifts during the 2025 hurricane season."  The spokesperson said the hurricane center "remains dedicated" to providing timely weather forecasts and warnings."

We'll see about that. 

Public pressure to provide enough staff to allow NOAA/National Weather Service to perform its mission to protect the public might actually be having a little bit of positive effect on the Trump administration.

Especially with Elon Musk pretty much out of the picture for now. 

Musk was exceptionally keen on getting rid of practically everyone working for the federal government including those in NOAA, To his mind, the only person that needs to be protected from scary weather is himself.  Screw everyone else. He is, after the all, the ultimate Main Character Syndrome poster boy.

Now, Musk's bromance with Donald Trump seems to be over.  (Bill Maher, in the spirt of "Brajalina" or "Bennifer"  called the Musk/Trump bromance "Elump" which is kinda fun).

With Musk out of the way for now and public pressure growing to keep the Nation Weather Service functioning,   there is a tiny bit of appetite for hiring back some of the lost staff at NOAA,  Not enough to solve its problems, but maybe ease them a tiny bit. 

IMPROVING NOAA STAFFING

NOAA says they will reshuffle staff to areas where staff shortages are especially acute. Basically encouraging remaining staff to move to offices that are really short on workers, Which doesn't really solve the overall problem of not enough resources, but I suppose it's a tiny start.

Even better news came a little over a week ago, which is a nice symptom of Musk's departure:  

The National Weather Service lost more than 560 employees to layoff and early retirement incentives., Now, the NWS has managed to get permission to hire about 125 new meteorologists, technicians and specialists for forecast offices around the nation, CNN reported.

This might help with National Weather Service offices that can't be staffed overnight during periods of non-threatening weather. Or even better, keep enough staff to meteorologists can adequately keep their eyes on the ball when there is dangerous weather. 

The new hires still won't be enough to overcome the effects of the bigger staff losses. I, like Morales, am not comfortable with the lack of NOAA staffing, even if those 125 replacement people come on board. I still think weather forecast quality and accuracy is degraded, despite the heroic efforts of remaining meteorologists with NWS. 

SENSIBLE LEGISLATION

I was intrigued with a bill recently introduced by U.S. Senators Jerry Moran, (R-Kansas) and Gary Peters (D-Michigan) that would exempt National Weather Service employees from any executive order or memorandum imposing a hiring freeze,

It would essentially designate NWS employees as public safety officials, sort of like FBI agents or Border Patrol officers. 

Makes sense, since National Weather Service meteorologists' main job is public safety, right?  I also find it interesting that this is a bipartisan bill coming out in these bifurcated times. 

I have no idea whether this bill will go anywhere, but it's another sign the Trump administration is out of step with the majority of Americans who agree with Morales and want to continue receiving the best possible information when deadly storms threaten. 

I imagine the Trump administration isn't a fan of this good idea for Moran and Peters, so we'll see.

Still, under the increasingly autocratic Trump, it's getting riskier to criticize the prez and/or his  administration. Especially if you're a widely watched public figure like Morales. The Trump people have a habit of unleashing their MAGA goons on them by launching social media attacks, doxxing them, even threatening them with arrest. 

Or trying to demand the corporations that employ these outspoken truth tellers "or else."

After the broadcast, The Guardian asked Morales if "he was worried about retaliation from an administration that's south to defund and disparage scientists. Morales said 'No,  not at all. Science is science."

 

Aspiring Meteorologist Seeks Good Trouble/Revenge As I Would Put It, Against 2013 Oklahoma Tornado Calamity

An injured Aria Vargyas, then age 8, right side of photo,
being carried out of the tornado-destroyed Briarwood
Elementary School in Moore, Oklahoma on May 20,
2013. The tragedy killed her two sisters, and 
powered her fascination with meteorology so she
can work to prevent deaths in similar storms.
She's now 20 years old and a meteorology student 
at Texas A&M. Photo by AP 

 On May 20, 2013, a powerful EF-5 tornado swept across Moore, Oklahoma. It was one of the worst tornado disasters in recent American history, 

It killed 24 people, injured 212, destroyed 1,150 homes and caused $2 billion in damage. 

Among those injured was Aria Vargyas, then eight, when Briarwood Elementary School, where she was a student, was hit by the twister and collapsed around her.  

Her sisters, Karrina, 4, and Sydnee, 7 months died in their house near the school as the tornado blew the home apart and scattered it to the winds. 

There's even an iconic photo out there of a rescue worker carrying an injured Vargyras out of collapsed remains of the school 

As Texas A&M University of Arts and Sciences and CBS reports, Aria Vargyras, now 20, is in a way seeking revenge against the tornado. 

She is now a meteorology major at Texas A&M, wishing to build a career studying tornadoes and how to predict, understand and ultimately find ways to dissipate storms that produce these deadly tornadoes.

If you insist on a Hollywood connection, her story echoes the plot of the two famous "Twister" movies.

In the first one, the protagonist is a woman who as a child lost her father in a tornado. The character is now a researcher and tornado chaser who is trying to figure out the mechanisms of tornadoes to better understand them and mitigate them.

In the second Twister movie, the protagonist is a woman who, earlier in life lost friends in a tornado chase that went awry and is now studying ways to dissipate and stop tornadoes in their tracks. 

Hollywood isn't reality, of course, but Vargyas has an incredibly compelling story.

A locket around Aria's neck holds a photo of the three sisters. She still has the letters she wrote to them after the storm as she tried to cope with the pain. '"I hate that you're never coming back....And I hate that I have to realize that," she wrote, 

 As Texas A&M explains.

"In dealing with the loss of her sisters as she grew up Vargyas found herself increasingly obsessed with meteorology and the mechanisms behind storm formation. She eventually made it her goal to pursue an education that would enable her to become a meteorologist and work toward preventing weather disaster and their devastating impact on other families and communities.

'My passion for meteorology fully stems from my sisters,' Vargyas said. 'I am doing this for them. I want to do research to help find a way to dissipate storms, but it was because of my sisters that I wanted to do that. I wanted to make sure no one went through what I went through at such a young age.'"

Vargyas just completed her freshman year at Texas A&M. "It's fascinating to delve deeper into the dynamics of weather systems....Understanding the intricacies of atmospheric processes is crucial to my quest to improve prediction and response. Ultimately, I do want to storm chase, looking at the radar, taking pictures and mapping."

Her passion for meteorology and writing, has helped with the grief of losing her two sisters, Texas A&M reports. 

"I started writing, journaling and trying to write my feelings down, and that's what gets me through the rough patches.... Somewhere along the road, it got easier. I didn't cry as much when I talked about them...When I would think of them, it would be a good memory instead of a sad one." 

Right now, we live in a time when a significant portion of the population denigrates science and scientists. We have people in positions of power who do that. The discoveries and truths scientists learn about and tell us don't always match the world view that some politicians want. Or more accurate, a world view that would make them more money than the truth. 

Most scientists don't have as dramatic a story like Vargyas has. But they also don't go into their respective fields to somehow screw over would-be billionaires. Or foist a "climate change hoax" on the population to control them.  Or something. 

Sure, there are bad apple scientists out there, just like there is in every profession. A small minority of scientists cheat, or find ways to make lots of money instead of, you know, actual science.

But honestly, those fools are few and far between. 

As I wrote some of this past Friday afternoon, meteorologists were watching storms in southern Vermont like hawks. The storms risked bringing  life-threatening flash floods, and those scientists were ready to warn the public and save lives  as soon as the first sign of trouble loomed.

It's just what they do.  

We clearly need scientists like Vargyas and so many of the others out there. Too bad not enough people recognize this. Until it's too late.  

Vermont Air Super Polluted From Canada Forest Fires, Also Flood Update

A hazy view Saturday evening looking southwest from
Pleasant Street in West Rutland, Vermont. Air quality
alerts remain in effect in most of the Green
Mountain State today due to Canadian wildfire smoke.

 The air in Vermont was downright dangerous, at least for some people on Saturday. 

Smoke from Canadian forest fires settled down from aloft to the surface in Vermont and surrounding areas.

 Light winds through the atmosphere could not disperse the smoke so it enveloped the green landscape of Vermont.  

So much so you couldn't see the damn landscape. 

The air quality index in some part so Vermont exceeded 150, which is unhealthy for everyone. This is rather rare among the big, increasingly frequent smoke outbreaks we've had in recent years from wildfires.

An index of 101 to 150 is unhealthy for sensitive groups, and can trigger problems in people with cardiovascular disease or asthma and things like that.

Over 151 and everybody starts to feel it. Some members of the general public could feel health effects, and people in more sensitive groups might have more serious effects. 

WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consol said on Facebook Saturday that being outdoors in Vermont for three hours on Saturday had the health equivalent of smoking one fourth of a cigarette. 

It's not just us, of course. Air quality alerts are scattered across many places in the United States and Canada, including much of New York and all of Minnesota. 

At least 50 percent of the southern half of Canada is under air quality warnings or advisories. 

TODAY 

The air quality alert for Vermont  remains in effect today for all of Vermont. 

Forecasters say the air quality should gradually start to improve a little as we go through the afternoon, but the problem almost certainly won't go away. 

Northwest breezes should mix the air more than Saturday's calm winds, which would disperse some of the smoke. But the smoke itself is coming at us from the northwest, which would replenish the supply of particulate pollution. The bottom line is any improvement today will be a slow and incomplete.

According to Airnow.gov, expected air quality indexes in Vermont should on average range between 110 and 140, or unhealthy for sensitive groups.  Of course, the air quality will vary, sometimes going higher based on wind conditions and terrain and maybe sometimes a little lower, especially late in the day. 

Even healthy people will certainly notice the haze, and be bothered by the poor air quality.  Even if  you're the picture of health, this is no day to run an outdoor marathon.

MONDAY AND BEYOND

Winds should start to blow from the south and southwest over Vermont on Monday, which would help clear the air by driving much of the smoke back north into Canada. More south winds, along with lots of rain showers, should continue to help on Tuesday. 

This is a temporary solution, of course, as long as the fires continue to rage in Canada.  Northwest winds should return later in the week, which could bring the smoke back. We'll need to wait and see on that one. Updated forecasts should be available on any new smoke attacks within a couple days.

Once upon a time, we used to look forward to northwest winds in the summer. Those winds will bring clean, dry cool air into Vermont, keeping oppressively, sticky humid air at bay.

With the increase in wildfires, brought on in large part by climate change, those northwest breezes are no longer always as welcomed as they once were.

FLOODING UPDATE

We're still getting reports and updates about the flash flooding that hit parts of southeast Vermont Friday and Friday night. 

In turns out Springfield, Vermont was hit pretty hard. Video from WPTZ shows a sections of a couple gravel roads completely washed away after the downpours. Repeated floods last summer washed out one man's driveway three times. It happened again Friday. 

More soaking rain fell Saturday morning in southern Vermont. Burlington reported just a sprinkle, amounting to a mere trace of rain. It was barely enough to keep the streak going: Twenty-fifth weekend in a row with at least a bit of precipitation and 12th Saturday in a row with at least a trace of rain

It's way too early to determine whether Vermont will see any rain next weekend. 

More rain is in Vermont's forecast for Tuesday. It doesn't look like it will be enough to cause more flood damage. But we'll watch it anyway. There's always the possibility that weather systems can slow down enough to make downpours overstay their welcome in Vermont. So far, though, it looks like we're good. 

Saturday Vermont Weather Update: More Rain South, More Smoke From Canada

With all the rain we've had, some of my St. Albans,
Vermont gardens have gotten overgrown. Hope to
get outshone and thin some of that out. If we have
some rain-free time to do it. 

Friday indeed turned out to be a rather rough weather day, at least in southeastern Vermont, where we had several reports of flash flooding and one or two instances of severe thunderstorm damage.

Vermont was on the edge of much more in the way of flood and wind damage in parts of New Hampshire and Massachusetts. 

Today won't be nearly as rough, but there are some interesting weather happenings to talk about. More on that in a bit. 

FLASH FLOODING

We noted early Friday afternoon there was a risk of possibly significant flash flooding in southern Vermont. Sometimes, significant is in the eye the beholder, but the torrential downpours caused their share of problems in and near the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

Some of the reports include a road washout near the intersection of Sioux Drive and Clinton Street in Springfield; water was over the roads on Route 106 and Tarbell Hill Road in Amsden;  and Whitney Road in Chester was closed at both ends due to flooding. 

Over in New Hampshire, flooding was more widespread, and there were also numerous reports of trees down and large hail. Contoocook, New Hampshire had 4.56 inches of rain. Hillsborough, which had flooding issues, received 4.25 inches, and 3.25 inches of that came in just an hour and 45 minutes.

Rainfall Friday in Vermont ranged from pretty much  nothing in the far northwest corner to a lot in the southeast, where we had the flooding. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont, collected only 0.1 inches of rain Friday. Burlington was a little heftier at 0.36 inches. 

TODAY'S RAIN

The same rain pattern will hit today: Dry northwest, soggy south in Vermont. The far northwest corner of Vermont has a shot of breaking the streak of consecutive rainy Saturdays. It might not rain at all today in places like St. Albans and Alburgh and Richford. 

Central and southern Vermont, sorry. More wet weather. A big slug of moisture was heading into that part the state just after dawn, and a period of rain, some of it heavy should lumber through southern Vermont through the morning and probably at least partly into the afternoon. 

Far southern Vermont is not yet out of the woods for flooding.

Flood watches are in effect until mid-afternoon today for Bennington and Windham counties.

Even after the main slug of rain has passed later, a few widely scattered showers and garden-variety thunderstorms could pop up through the afternoon and early evening almost anywhere in Vermont. But again, least likely over the northwest. 

RAINY WEEKENDS

Back north, if it rains in Burlington today - and it will likely at least sprinkle there early today -  it will be the 25th weekend in a row (Saturday and/or Sunday) with at least a trace of rain or snow. The last completely dry weekend was December 14-15, 2024, according to data compiled by WCAX-TV meteorologists

That'll make it the third longest stretch of consecutive wet or wet-ish weekends on record. The two longer ones go way back, says WCAX. There were 26 consecutive weekends in a row ending on March 15, 1919 with rain or snow. The winner is 30 consecutive weekend ending on March 15, 1919.

Interestingly, WCAX found that in the list of top ten most consecutive wet weekends, the current stretch is the wettest. There's been 8.71 inches of rain and melted snow in our 25 weekends. All other long stretches of damp weekends, including 1935, had less than that. 

SMOKE AND SMOG 

Skies partly cleared Friday evening over St. Albans,
Vermont, revealing a still-smoky atmosphere from
Canadian forest fires. An air quality alert is in effect
today for central and northern Vermont due to the
continued smoke drifting down from Canada.

On top of the rain, smoke from Canadian wildfires will still harass us here in Vermont over the weekend. 

It was actually smoggy early this morning, with areas of dense fog mixed with some smoke. It smelled like a smoldering campfire around here in St. Albans last evening and this morning.  

The early morning fog will probably have lifted by the time you read this,  but the smoke, not so much.

An air quality alert that as in effect for far northwestern Vermont yesterday had been lifted temporarily overnight. 

Based on wind and smoke forecasts, the Vermont Department Of Environmental Conservation and the National Weather Service has for today re-issued the air quality alert for a larger portion of Vermont. 

The new air quality alert covers all of Vermont north of Addison and Orange counties through today. 

Heavier smoke was lurking in southern Canada and northwest breezes today were expected to drive that southward.  As of 4 p.m. Friday two of the five most air-polluted major cities in the world were Toronto and Montreal, because of all that smoke from the fires up in Canada. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND 

Sunday in Vermont looks rain-free. Hallelujah!   It will be a nice day. Sunny for the most part, comfortably warm, humidity safely on the very low side.

The now seemingly ever-present Canadian wildfire smoke will still linger in the air, dulling the blue skies into a grayish haze. But the sun will still be out, even if the smoke gives it a bit of a weird copper tint. 

The rain-free weather Sunday and probably Monday will dry things out a bit for the next round of rain hit by around Tuesday.  It's still a bit soon to determine how hard it will rain Tuesday and who precisely will get hit by it. 

Stay tuned, as usual! 

Air Quality Alert In NW Vermont, New York

Photo taken near my St. Albans, Vermont looking west
late this morning should include views of Lake Champlain
and the landscape on the New York side of the lake.
But wildfire smoke is obscuring the view. An air
quality alert is in effect for northwestern Vermont
and New York through this evening. 

 When I left for some appointments this morning, I noticed the air seemed awfully hazy this morning, with a hint of stale campfire smoke. 

It turns out smoke from Canadian wildfires is wafting toward the ground a little  more rather than staying overhead a ways  Pollution experts locally have noticed too. An air quality alert is now in effect for northwestern Vermont and northern New York. 

Wind patterns have concentrated the smoke in this area. Plus, forecasts of more and heavier rain south today will tend to clean the air somewhat south and east of Chittenden, Franklin and Grand Isle counties. 

The air quality alert goes until 11 pm. tonight, and I think the air problems will focus through the daylight hours today. If some rains drifts into northwest Vermont this afternoon - and it might. That will help some, but won't solve the problems.

They're advising us not to do much strenuous outdoor exercise. And if you're particularly sensitive to air pollution, especially the small particulates now floating around the in the air, stay inside. Preferably with air purifiers if possible. 

That goes for people with respiratory and heart problems. People who have asthma should follow their asthma action plan and have their quick relief medicine with them if they need to use it in a hurry.  

Fires continue to rage, mostly in central Canada. They will continue to belch smoke across large sections of Canada and the United States for the foreseeable future. 

Friday Vermont Early Afternoon Update: "Locally Significant Flash Flooding" Possible in Southern Vermont This Afternoon, Evening

Forecasters are now saying "locally significant flash 
flooding" is possible this afternoon and evening
in parts of southern Vermont, along with much 
of New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. 

UPDATE: 2:30 PM FRIDAY

Concern is rising in far southern Vermont for the risk of flash flooding this afternoon and evening.  

By 2:15 p.m, pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms had already developed over the southern Green Mountains.

A large patch of drenching rain, meanwhile, was moving in from the west, beginning to affect most everything south of a Burlington to Newport line,

The part of this drenching patch of rain heading into southern Vermont should intensify as it hits humid, more unstable air there. 

Plus, more torrential thunderstorms should develop, mostly south of Route 4. 

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, put out a statement warning of the risk of "locally significant flash flooding" in steep and hilly terrain of the southern Green Mountains,

This potential significant flash flooding extends into the Berkshires of Massachusetts and much of southern New Hampshire, especially the Monadnock Mountains. 

In these areas - again including the southern Green Mountains - local areas might see as much as three to five inches of rain of rain in just a few hours. Rainfall rates could briefly reach two inches per hour, which is a big indicator of a flash flood risk, 

The ground is also very wet already in southern Vermont, so it can't absorb all that much water.

Some flash flooding is possible as far north as central Vermont, but it won't be potentially as severe and widespread as in the south. 

Take this one serious, especially if you live in southern Vermont, the southern half of New Hampshire and the western half of Massachusetts. 

There were no flash flood warning in effect yet as of 2:30 p.m., but the worst of the rain hadn't arrived yet. The threat will peak between roughly at between roughly 3 to 8 p.m., but could linger beyond that.

If you live in an area prone to flash flooding, have a to-go bag ready now, and a planned route to escape.  Also, some of you in southern Vermont might be temporarily trapped behind washed out back roads, 

It's honestly too late to run out and get food and stuff in advance of any flooding. You don't want to be caught out on the roads, especially ones near small creeks and streams when the rain really hits. Those streams can go from placid brooks to roaring rapids sometimes within minutes.

Not every town in southern Vermont will see a flash flood. But it's time to be on your toes through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Just in case. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING

Once again, some localized flood risks have popped
up today. In Vermont, southeastern parts of the 
state especially have a chance of local but
to widespread flash flooding. 

Thunderstorms in Vermont were fewer and further between on Thursday than expected, though some of the some of the widely scattered storms eded up being pretty strong. 

We have no reports of any damage so far, so it doesn't look like any of the storms achieved severe status. 

A couple strong storms originated in or near Addison County and crossed over the Green Mountains to areas north White River Junction. I'm sure some of those towns along the way did experience a rambunctious storm. 

90 DEGREES

The relative lack of thunderstorms Thursday also meant more sun, allowing Burlington to achieve its first 90 degree day of the season. 

That was a day later than expected.  Some forecasts called for 90 degrees on Wednesday, but the city didn't quite make it, stopping at 88 degrees.  The mostly sunny skies that lasted until at least mid-afternoon Thursday let Burlington briefly sneak up to 90 degrees in the mid-afternoon. 

The first 90 of the season has been coming earlier in the season recently, compared to, say a generation ago. That's owing at least in part to climate change. The first 90 of the season on Thursday was earlier than historically common. But compared to the last 20 years, it was sort of so-so early.

In the past decade, four of Burlington's first 90 degree day of the season came at a later date than June 5.  In 2015, the first 90 didn't hit until July 28.

The earliest in the season first 90 came on April 17, 2002. Burlington has had a handful of years, like 1998, 2000 and 2004 with no 90 degree days at all. 

TODAY'S STORMS

We're going to have two very different Vermonts today and tonight. Southern Vermont will be stormy and wet. With even a risk of some flooding and severe storms.

Northern areas, not so much, though a little rain should creep in. Right near the Canadian border it might not rain at all, or it does, it won't amount to much.

Which means all eyes are on southern Vermont.  Yesterday's weak cold front stalled and has become a warm front, which will drift ever so slowly into central parts of the state.

South of the warm front, the air is humid and unstable, which suggest lots of showers and thunderstorms. Especially this afternoon.

The principal threat is local flash floods. There's a level one marginal risk of flash flooding in central and southern Vermont, with a somewhat more substantial level 2 slight risk of flash floods in extreme southeast Vermont. (And in western Massachusetts and the southern half of New Hampshire.)

A few spots in southeast Vermont could see two to as much as three inches of rain in a short amount of time this afternoon, which suggests flash flooding is a possibility there.  It won't be widespread, but a few places are at risk.

I'd say the steep terrain of the eastern slopes of the extreme southern Green Mountains, and the lowlands just to the east where the water will flow has the best shot of flash flooding. 

I'd keep an eye on Whetstone Brook in and near Brattleboro today, and nearby streams, just to be on the safe side. No guarantees of flooding there, but if you've got stuff that can be easily moved away from the brook or those surrounding streams, do it this morning, just in case. 

There's no flood watch currently in Vermont, but flood watches are in effect immediately adjacent to the Green Mountain State in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

Another secondary problem in far southern Vermont is severe storms. A few could contain strong damaging winds, maybe a couple of microbursts. Nothing at all like Austin, Texas had on May 28, but a couple towns in far southern parts of the state could suffer some localized tree and power line damage. 

A level one marginal risk of severe storms, meaning isolated damaging winds at most, is in effect for areas along and south Route 4. As of early this morning, level 2 slight risk is up for central New England, just barely creeping into southeastern Vermont around Brattleboro and Guilford.  

SATURDAY

Believe it or not, Saturday is looking....OK. At least in the afternoon and evening. I'm not holding my breath, given our recently history, but at least some of us might enjoy some sun as the afternoon wears on and evening approaches.

At least it won't be a complete washout like last Saturday was. 

Southern Vermont will still have the worst weather in the state, just as they will today. It'll be a rainy morning, as Saturdays in Vermont now seem to be required to have rain. But skies should brighten by mid to late afternoon. Except maybe in far southeast Vermont, where it could remain cloudy all day. 

The further north you go, the less rain and the less chance of rain you'll see.  In fact, it's possible parts of Vermont close to the Canadian border might break the sacred Saturday "rule" and see no rain at all!

Bottom line. If you have outdoor plans Saturday in Vermont, the later in the day they start, they better off you'll be,

The only fly in the ointment later in the afternoon is a secondary cold front will come through. That could touch off a few isolated showers and storms, but nothing widespread at all.

SUNDAY

Another miracle might hit Sunday.  At least some of us in Vermont should end up with a Chamber of Commerce kind of day. You know, perfect for the tourists. After a comfortable night for sleeping overnight Saturday, Sunday's highs should reach the mid 70s, at least in the valleys. The humidity should stay nice and low. 

 Places away from the mountains should have mostly sunny skies, with just some puffy clouds around over the mountains, to make the photos and background for your selfies that much prettier. 

There will probably be still some Canadian wildfire smoke in the atmosphere, so the sky might not be a brilliant deep blue on Sunday. The blue might have that bit of a slate gray tint to it because of that smoke. I guess not everything can be perfect. Still, the smoke shouldn't be as thick as it was earlier this week, and I don't anticipate anything serious enough to prompt air quality alerts. 

If you're in the mountains, the skies could get a little cluttered with those puffy clouds in the afternoon, so the sun won't be consistent there. But it will still be nice. No rain!