FEMA Is Messing Up Again During Partial Gov't Shutdown, Thanks To ICE Barbie

Not really surprising, but Kristi Noem is making
disaster relief work for FEMA employees harder
than it needs to be during the
current partial government shutdown. 

The partial government shutdown, affecting the Department of Homeland Security, TSA and the Federal Emergency Management District, is about a week old now, and shows no signs of ending. 

Usually, when this type of things happen, essential workers keep working. That should include FEMA employees who should be helping victims of disasters, like the epic winter storm last month. 

As usually, the Trump administration, namely Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi "ICE Barbie" Noem, seem to be messing it up.  As head of DHS, Noem oversees FEMA. 

According to the Washington Post,  DHS halted almost all travel, which virtually erased the ability of FEMA staff to move in and out of disaster areas. WaPo based its reporting emails and documents the paper obtained.

Homeland Security and FEMA employee typically stop traveling to things like trainings, or conferences during government shutdowns. But a government shutdown almost never stops people from going to disaster areas to help with recovery.  

Per WaPo:

"On Tuesday might, DHS sent out an email ordering a stop to all travel, including for disaster-related work, sparking confusion across FEMA as teams continue to respond to 14 ongoing disaster declarations as a result of brutal winter storms that hit parts of the country last month. 

In another message obtained by the Post, a FEMA official said that 'ALL travel stopped' and noted that 360 people who were slated to go to trainings and other assignments had to stand down. People who were supposed to deploy could begin some work virtually, but DHS now had to sign off on their in-person assignment, the message said." 

 The restrictions on travel have come down even though most FEMA deployments are paid through a Disaster Relief Fund that isn't affected by the shutdown, CNN noted. 

 Officials told the Washington Post that the stoppage on trips to disaster areas reflect policies instituted under Noem.  

"That's why instituting travel restrictions when staffers are still working on this storm responses is even more frustrating, several current employees said. 'They are just trying to make it hurt, and the only people they are hurting are survivors and FEMA employees."

When the no-travel directive went out, official and employees at DHS and FEMA sought guidance from higher ups on how to reach disaster areas and continue their work. 

To justify heading to a disaster zone, staffers were told to submit their justifications to higher ups, including whether the trip was "mission essential"  and involves the "safety of human life or protection of property."

Of course, somebody then has to approve the whole each employee statement, so you can see the bottleneck here. 

FEMA employees are not happy, as you can imagine. "DHS imposing restrictions FEMA's ability to deploy our response/recovery workforce slows us down and limits our ability to respond quickly and effectively to the needs of impacted states and communities," one employee wrote.

People who were in regions hit hard by recent storms could continue their work, at least for now. But other FEMA  employees who were scheduled to rotate in this Thursday to relieve those workers are now barred from doing so. 

The rotations are important for disaster work because FEMA officials who have been working nonstop get a break, refresh, and are able to go full speed ahead when it's their turn to go in again. FEMA is also required to relieve employees who have been working too long in a state where they don't live, WaPo noted.

The delays affect recovery from disasters that happened as long ago as the autumn of 2024, when Hurricane Helene smashed huge swaths of the Southeastern U.S. That's going to create backlogs in the future. 

"'If we can't get people to Florida or North Carolina to help validate damages from Helene, we can't approve funding for these projects,' one FEMA official, who asked not to be identified, told CNN. 'If we can't staff a Disaster Recovery Center in Washington State or Alaska, how can people get help with their assistance applications?'

DHS of course deny that there's a problem, but in a statement said restrictions on travel are "not a choice but are necessary to comply with federal law"

 "While some non-essential activities will be paused or scaled back FEMA remains committed to supporting communities and responding to incidents like Hurricane Helene," according to the DHS statement. 

The travel restrictions during the shutdown are on top of a policy ICE Barbie put in place last year, which states that each expenditure over $100,000 requires Noem's personal approval. That has created enormous backlogs in FEMA funds awaiting her go-ahead. Members of Congress and state officials are also exasperated with this. 

It doesn't help that ICE Barbie is so often too busy cosplaying as some sort of immigration cop for the cameras instead of actually doing her job.

The deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis last month at the hands of federal immigration officers prompted Democrats to demand reforms in exchange for a spending package to fund affected federal agencies. 

Democrats want to bar immigration officers fm wearing masks. They also want a stop to the "roving patrols" when officers conduct broad searches and stop people, sometimes on the flimsiest of evidence or no evidence that they might be in the U,S, illegally.  They also want to make it easier to pursue legal actions against officers who engage in misconduct. Also, they want agents to display clear identification when encountering the public.

Congress is not due in session again until next Monday, so it will be at least until then before anything is resolved. 

Even before this latest debacle, FEMA was down 1,600 employees compared to a little over a year ago under ICE Barbie's administration. 

 

After Vermont's Snowstorm Last Night, All Eyes On The Coast For Blizzard Of '26

Yet another winter wonderland this morning in St.
Albans, Vermont after last night's 6.5 inches of
snow. All eyes on the East Coast as what
might well become the Blizzard of '26.

 The snow was just about done here in Vermont by about 8:30 the morning, with just patchy areas of light snow and flurries around. 

The big news next is something that escalated really quickly over the past couple of days. 

The expected path of the  nor'easter we've been talking about went from well offshore to right near the coast. 

A full-fledged blizzard is now expected along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. This includes New York City and  probably Boston.

That storm will mostly hit Sunday night and Monday.

I'll give you all the details on that in a moment, with updates on how all that might affect us in Vermont, but let's catch up with last night's storm in Vermont .

SNOW TOTALS AND FORECAST

It looks like total accumulations were in line with expectations. I saw a lot of five, six and seven inch reports across the state. The most I've seen so far is 8.5 inches in Tunbridge, followed closely 8.2 inches in Morrisville.

Here in St. Albans, I collected 6.5 inches. Burlington collected six inches as of shortly before 7 a.m today. 

Also as expected, the snow slowed down traffic quite a bit. The worst problem locally was in Sunny Hollow on Route 7 in Colchester. Several cars couldn't make it up the steep hills in that area, ad had to be pulled out. That really snarled traffic there.

An accident also had traffic seriously backed up amid heavy snow on the Killington Access Road Friday afternoon. 

Road conditions are definitely improving this morning. There are still slick spots, but just go a little slow and you'll be fine.

A cold front was slopping south through Vermont as of 8 a.m. Temperatures were near 20 degrees in the north and in the low 30s in southern Vermont. Since we're getting into daylight and sunshine, temperatures will hold in the low to mid 30s south and rise only into the mid and upper 20s central and north.

But I'm burying the lede. Here's the big story

BLIZZARD OF '26?

The American computer model from this morning
has a super intense storm with serious coastal
flooding and blizzard conditions for areas 
near the coastline from Delaware to New England. 

Forecasts for the coastline from Delaware north into New England have gotten rather  dire and extreme. 

The Nor'easter that just three days ago was supposed to harmlessly head out to sea is now going to bring a potentially historic storm to the the Northeast. Especially along and east of Interstate 95. 

Delaware, the Jersey Shore, New York City, Long Island and coastal Connecticut are under blizzard warnings for Sunday into Monday.

 I think those blizzard warnings will be extended into southeastern New England, too. 

Places under the blizzard warning look like they might receive one to two feet of snow, driven by winds of up to 55 mph.  

The early part of the storm will feature wet and heavy snow. That, combined with the strong winds, could cause some widespread power outages.T

Serious coastal flooding is also in the cards.

All the computer models agree the nor'easter will develop explosively on Sunday and quickly become perhaps the most intense storm in years. It's definitely a red alert storm. 

What we don't know is whether the northwestward drift in the expected path of the storm will continue or not. Which leaves questions about how far inland the heavy snow will get. For now. winter storm warnings for more eight to 16 inches of snow cover New Jersey away from the coast, southeast Pennsylvania, and the Hudson Valley north of New York City

In case the predicted storm track keeps going further northwest, winter storm watch covers Maryland,  a good chunk of Pennsylvania, New York as far north as Albany and New England as far north as the border between Massachusetts and Vermont and New Hampshire. 

As mentioned, this will probably be an historic storm. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Until now, we didn't think Vermont would be affected by this nor'easter at all. Now it looks like the Green Mountain State will feel some effects, but it still doesn't look particularly scary for us.  

The forecast might still change, but for now Vermont's southernmost two counties could receive around six inches of snow Sunday night and Monday. A couple inches of snow might pile up as far north as Route 4.  Northern Vermont would get no additional snow under this scenario

Winds will probably pick up on Monday, especially in southern and eastern Vermont. It won't be anything damaging like near the coast, but gust to 30 mph will add to the late winter chill.

The nor'easter will also probably tug down a shot of Arctic air toward Tuesday. We'll have a 24 hour or so spell where daytime highs Tuesday would barely crack 20 degrees with an overnight low in the single number or even below zero.

And no rest for the weary. It looks like two more smaller storms might affect Vermont next Wednesday and Friday.  

I'll have much more on this nor'easter in future posts as this develops. 

Torrential Snow Falling In Vermont This Evening

Traffic cam grab shows heavy, wet snow along
Route 7 in Ferrisburgh late this afternoon. 

As some winter enthusiasts might say, it's puking snow out there. 

That long anticipated band of heavy snow has made its way through most of Vermont as of 5 p.m. today. The Northeast Kingdom is still waiting for it to start, but it will soon.

The National Weather Service noted the clouds that are producing the snow are oddly tall for a winter storm, resembling what you might see with heavy snow squalls. 

These aren't smoother, shallower clouds that you would see with a typical New England winter storm.  

I still think there's a low, but not zero chance of thunder snow this evening. I noticed a few lightning strikes a bit east of Watertown, New York late this afternoon

Once the snow arrived at any one location, it tended to wax and wane a bit. But when it was heaviest, it was coming down at a rate of up to two inches per hour. That's the heaviest snow rate we've seen all winter. 

We're lucky that the heavy snow in any given spot won't last more than six hours. Imagine if this were a day-long storm. 

In any event, you should be off the roads this evening as this burst of snow comes through. Judging from the web cams, the roads go from wet to snow covered in less than half an hour after the snow starts. And the snow comes down too hard to keep up with the plowing as that heavier band comes through. 

I almost guarantee there will be some traffic tie ups into this evening, especially in Chittenden County as people try to make their way home from work or school .c 

The overall forecast hasn't changed since this morning. We're still looking at a 5 to 10 inch dump, with most of it coming in that six hour burst this evening. 

The higher end totals would be in the Green Mountains, especially central and south. The lower end of that range would be in parts of the Champlain Valley, and along Route 7 in the valley floor in southwest Vermont. Down toward Bennington, it might only amount to two or three inches. 

This evening's snow still looks like it's wet and heavy.  There might be a few issues with fallen branches and power lines, but I don't think we'll see many power outages.

Notice how "bumpy" the clouds were on satellite
images as the snow moved into Vermont this
afternoon. That's a sign of convection, which
meant bursts of very heavy snow. 

Lighter snow will fall later tonight and early tomorrow to finish up the storm. It'll abruply get a little colder late tonight as readings sink into the low 20.  Saturday looks like it will turn out to be a typical mostly cloudy late February day.

 There could be some light flurries around as temperatures hold in the 20s for the most part.

Be careful cleaning up the snow. Even though it will be colder on Saturday, most of the snow that does fall on your sidewalk or driveway will feel like cement. 

Sunday looks to the pick of the weekend. It'll still be generally cloudy, with maybe some sun. Temperatures should get up into the relatively mild low to mid 30s for the most part. 

NOR'EASTER

We'll have to start talking more about that nor'easter since the latest computer models have nudged its projected path a little further to the west. 

This nor'easter looks like it will hold its precipitation shield relatively close to its center. I still think Vermont will mostly be a bystander. But, a little snow could fall from this in southeastern Vermont. North to northeast winds will probably pick up, too.

However, if you have Sunday and Monday plans to visit Delaware, New Jersey, Long Island or eastern New England, be aware that those places are beginning to look like they are really in for a storm, 

I'll have more on the nor'easter tomorrow. 

Vermont, And Rest Of North Country Still On Target For Blast Of Snow Today

The latest National Weather Service snow forecast
issued this morning. Areas in yellow and orang can
expect six to 10 inches of snow. Blue areas will
be closer to five inches. 

The sky overhead as we woke up this morning was the polar opposite of yesterday's weather. 

Instead of that beautiful bluebird sky we enjoyed on Thursday. there's an ominous gray overhead.

 That's our sign that Vermont and the rest of the North Country is in for a blast of wet snow this afternoon and evening that will have some of you crying "uncle."

It's not that this storm will be much bigger than usual. Instead, it's another installment in a long, long winter. And, as we've noted previously. the timing and consistency of this thump of snow is bad. 

TIMING

You'll want to get any driving and errands done by noon today to be on the safe side

The snow should arrive in southwestern Vermont by around noon.  Along Interstate 89, the snow will start maybe around 3 or 4 p.m., give or take. The Northeast Kingdom might be able to squeak through the evening commute before the snow starts there at around 6 p.m., again, give or take. 

The snow will come in fast. Very soon after you see the first raindrops or snowflakes, the precipitation will get heavy and quickly. Those caught out on the roads will see conditions go from great to terrible in no time. 

AMOUNTS

Overall, the forecast hasn't changed much since last night. Broad brush, most of Vermont and surrounding areas should get five to 10 inches of snow. The bulk of that snow will come down within a few hours starting in the mid to late afternoon and continuing into the evening. 

If there's any changes, the amount of expected snow in the southern and central Green Mountains has ticked up by about an inch. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple spots along the east slopes of the southern or central Green Mountains come close to a foot of snow. 

Along the valley floor along Route 7 in southwest Vermont, above freezing temperatures combined with east winds might cut accumulations down closer to three or four inches. Perhaps as little as two inches around Bennington.  

When the wind comes out of the east, the wind flows downhill along the western slopes of the mountains. Air flowing downhill tends to dry out somewhat, which explains the potentially lower snow totals there. 

In the immediate Champlain Valley, the precipitation might start out with a rain/snow mix, then quickly shift to all wet snow. The initial mix might keep total accumulations down to five or six inches. 

WET, HEAVY SNOW

I bring up the mix of rain at the start west of the Green Mountains because of an interesting temperature set up this morning. East of the Green Mountains, temperatures were only in the single numbers early this morning. West of the Green Mountains, temperatures were in the 28 to 33 degree range. Bennington was already at 36 degrees.

Those areas are starting warmer than we thought. Before the precipitation starts this afternoon, temperatures west of the Greens could even briefly flirt with 40, especially down by Bennington. Even eastern Vermont should get into the low 30s by the time the snow arrives. 

However, once the precipitation starts getting heavy, that should cool the atmosphere enough to change everyone over to snow fairly quickly. 

Still, temperatures during this evening's big thump of snow should stay close to 32 or 33 degrees. The bottom line is this will be a wet and heavy snow. Not the nice, gentle powdery snowfalls we've seen most of this winter. 

As I've noted before, wet snow turns into a particularly slippery ice when compacted beneath vehicle tires.  The snow will also come down at a rate of an inch or more per hour.  Some spots on the eastern slopes of the southern Green Mountains and southeastern slopes of the Adirondacks could briefly near two inches per hour.

Road crews cannot keep up with that rate of snowfall. People will be stuck on hills, slide-offs will gum up highways. Late this afternoon and evening will be an absolutely mess. I hope some of our readers were able to arrange to work at home today. 

This really is a dynamic storm, judging from the tornadoes it spun off yesterday in Illinois and Indiana. Here in Vermont, I think we have a low, but not zero chance of seeing some thunder snow this evening, especially south. 

As we mentioned yesterday, the snow will turn much lighter and drier in consistency later tonight a Saturday morning. A new storm near the New England coast will steal most of the atmospheric energy later today and whisk it quickly eastward out into the Atlantic Ocean. 

It won't be such a bad day tomorrow with clouds, and maybe some light snow especially in the mountains. There could even by a little sun north late in the day. 

We're still watching that nor'easter for Sunday night and Monday. It still looks like it will miss us here in Vermont.  We'll update after we get through today's mess.  

Thursday Afternoon Update: After Today's Hints Of Spring, Vermont Braces For Tomorrow's Snow'

Updated storm total map for tomorrow's storm.
Orange areas get eight inches or more Blue areas
are five inches or less. Expect some changes to
the forecast by tomorrow. The storm might end up
seeming worse than these totals suggest because
the initial surge of snow will come down hard. 

I hope you enjoyed our hints of spring this afternoon. Winter still looks like it will return with a vengeance tomorrow. 

Under strong sunshine, most places got into the mid 30s to around 40 today. An exception was right along the Canadian border, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley where temperatures held near 32 degrees. 

Now for our Thursday evening storm update:

If anything, the amount of snow we'll get has ticked up just a little since this morning's forecast. 

The storm responsible for all this is in the Midwest. It's quite vigorous, judging from the tornado watch in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky this afternoon.  The storm has prompted some flood watch in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, too. 

The storm will be weakened some by the time it gets closer to us, but it will still pack a punch when it arrives. 

 The snow will come at us from southwest to northeast, hitting the Bennington area first early in the afternoon. By 4 p.m give or take it will be along and south and west of Interstate 89. The snow will then fill in toward the Northeast Kingdom by dark or so. Stay tuned for updates as the timing might change a little.

The storm will be more intense than the predicted snow totals suggest. Once the snow arrives, it'll very quickly go from flurries to very heavy snow, piling up at a rate of an inch or more per hour. It still looks it might start off mixed with rain in the lower valleys but will quickly go to snow.

You won't want to be on the roads when this arrives. The initial burst of heavy snow will be wet an heavy. That kind of snow compacts under car tires to create a particularly slick variety of ice. I anticipate big tie ups on the Interstate with a lot of slide offs and potential crashes once this hits.Like I said this morning, if you can work from home tomorrow instead of going into the office, do that. 

As expected, the National Weather Service has updated all the winter alerts for Friday The southeastern quarter of Vermont and the Green Mountains from the Massachusetts border north to about Sugarbush are under a winter storm warning from late Friday morning to Saturday morning. 

The southeastern Adirondacks of New York and southern New Hampshire are also under a winter storm warning. Everybody under the warning should get a storm total of 6 to 10 inches 

Winter storm warnings are usually issued when there's an expectation of at least six inches of snow. The rest of the region is under a winter weather advisory for four to seven inches of snow. (Forecaster think some areas will see six inches of snow in the advisory area, but not everyone will. 

The initial burst of heavy, wet snow will account for most of the accumulation with this thing.  You will be shoveling wet cement when it comes time to clear sidewalks and driveways. 

Overnight Friday and into Saturday, our storm will weaken rapidly as a new storm gets going along the New England coast and then goes quickly out to sea. Light snow will continue into Saturday, mostly in the north and mountains. The consistency of the snow overnight Friday and into Saturday will be nice and fluffy. That will give us a bit of a break, anyway. 

There's no great surge of frigid air coming in after this storm for a change. Highs Saturday will approach 30. Under partly cloudy skies Sunday, we should make it into the mid-30s.

That nor'easter  I mentioned this morning for Monday still looks like a miss for Vermont. 

 

Another Snowfall On The Way In A Relentless Vermont Winter

Latest snowfall prediction map for Friday's storm
Most of the snow will come in a hard thump
Friday afternoon and evening. Lighter snow
will come later Friday night and Saturday,
which is included in this prediction map

It hasn't come close to being the coldest winter on record in Vermont. It's not the snowiest one either. None of our winter storms have been especially huge or historic. 

But this winter has been relentless and long, with no real sign of a let up. Other parts of the United States have had tough weather, too, but most places haven't endured it for months like we have in northern New England.  

Some parts of Vermont established a snow cover around November 10 and the ground has been white since. WCAX reports that this year through February 18 has had the most consistent snowpack in Burlington since 2004. 

The snow will be on the ground for quite awhile yet, too.  Another snowstorm is coming Friday, and there might be more after that. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

This morning started cold once again, with temperatures in the single numbers and low teens. I notice Lake Eden, Vermont was at 2 below early today. Far southern Vermont, in places like Bennington and Brattleboro, stayed in the low 20s due to cloud cover. 

But, as last minute, adjusted forecasts late Wednesday afternoon indicated, those areas didn't get any snow, or if they did, it was just flurries.

The sun angle now is as high as it was around the third week in October. So when the sun is out, it can make a difference this time of year. Sure enough, temperatures should climb into the 30s, with maybe a couple upper 20s in the far northern Champlain Valley and near 40 in some southern Vermont valleys

But this will be a quick interlude until the next round of winter weather. 

FRIDAY

Like several storms we've seen this winter, we'll see a quick thump of pretty heavy snow, followed by a long period of light snow and flurries. Also, like many storms this winter, the timing will be atrocious. 

A storm heading into the Great Lakes will push a warm front toward us tomorrow. That will create a band of heavy snow that will push into Vermont during the afternoon. Most of the storm's expected accumulation will come during the first several hours of the storm, roughly from mid to late afternoon to late evening. 

This means it will arrive just in time for the Friday afternoon rush hour. 

Even worse, the snow will start out wet and heavy. It might even briefly mix with rain in the warmer valleys at the start.  Wet snow is often worse than powdery snow on the highway because car tires quickly compact wet snow into slippery ice. 

I'd suggest trying to work from home tomorrow if you can. And get your errands done before afternoon hits. 

The wet snow could also cause a few scattered power outages, but I don't believe this will be enough to cause widespread problems in that regard. 

The snow will turn much lighter and more powdery as it continues overnight Friday and into Saturday. During that time, the original storm will fade as a new storm takes shape near the New England coast. That storm will race eastward out to sea while strengthening 

The most snow will probably fall in the southern and central Green Mountains of Vermont and the east slopes of the Adirondacks of New York. In both those places,  a winter storm watch is up for an expected four to nine inches of snow.

The National Weather Service will probably issue a winter weather advisory for the rest of the region. Most of us will get three to seven inches of snow, if forecasts hold. All but one or two inches of that snow should fall in the first six or seven hours of the storm on Friday. 

AFTER THIS STORM

After the light snow tapers off Saturday, we have a period of seasonable late winter weather coming to Vermont. 

There's one literally big thing to watch out for, though. A powerful nor'easter will quickly form off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night and head to a position southeast of New England Monday.

As of this morning, computer models have been pushing the storm a little further northwest than previous forecasts suggested. It's beginning to look like the nor'easter  could bring coastal flooding, high winds and heavy precipitation to coastal New England. That is, if this northwest trend in the storm path continues .

If the current projected path of the storm pans out, southeast Vermont could see a little snow from this. 

There's plenty of time to watch this, so we'll update as necessary.

After that, the next chance of snow is next Wednesday. I don't see any signs of a huge warmup or major thaw for the next 10 days at least.  Your yard is going to be covered in snow for a long time yet. 

 

Vermont Wednesday Update: Winter Weather Advisory Dropped South, Storm Still Due Friday

Where'd the snow go?  The expected snow in southern
Vermont this evening. has gone pretty much gone poof
as an expected stripe of snow is weaker and further
 south this evening. 

Just a quick update for the evening: The snow that was going to hit southern Vermont with a few inches of snow is moving even further south than expected.

The winter weather advisory for Bennington  and Windham counties has been dropped. Far southern Vermont could still get a dusting to as much as an inch, but don't even count on that. 

This is a big switch since some forecasts two or three days ago had snow all the way to the Canadian border.  

Even after this flip flop in the forecast, there's still a slight chance southwest Vermont could get clipped with a little extra snow, since there's a very sharp line between nothing to the north and snowing at a good clip south.

If that line moves just 10 or 15 miles north, Bennington is back in play for snow. But it really doesn't look like that will be the case.    

Tomorrow will be a pleasant enough day with highs reaching the 30s in many locations. Forecasts still call for a 3 to 7 inch thump of snow Friday through Saturday. We'll see if there's any last minute revisions to that forecast, too.k 

I'll have a full update on Friday's potential snow in tomorrow morning's post. 

World Had Fifth Warmest January Despite Arctic Block That Kept Parts Of Europe, U.S.

January was the worlds fifth warmest on record 
Blocking high pressure in the Arctic kept that
region exceptionally warm, while parts of 
Europe and North America were 
a little cool as a result of that blocking

It might have seemed cold locally, but the world had its fifth warmest January on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

"This marks the 50th consecutive January (since 1977) with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th -century average. The 10 warmest Januarys on record have occurred since 2007, with the most recent five years (2022-26),"  NCEI noted in its monthly report.    

When you look at the data and maps from this monthly report, you can really see in this report how a persistent blocking pattern messed with temperatures in the northern hemisphere. 

High pressure over the Arctic and Greenland made that area super warm compared to average. That was especially true in northern and western Greenland and northeastern Canada.

Meanwhile, this pattern squashed the frigid air in the Arctic southward. That's why the eastern United States, northern and central Europe and most of the western two thirds of Russia were on the cool side.  

The cold air was also forced to spread out over a larger land area by this pattern, helping keep the world's January as a whole cooler than it otherwise would have been overall. Also, the effects of La Nina, which tends to cool the world, would be peaking roughly about now. 

No areas came close to the coldest on record. 

Fifth hottest is still impressively warm. Given the factors above, January shouldn't have been that warm. Climate change is still ruling the roost. As we previously reported, an El Nino is brewing for later this year, and that could bring the world's temperature to new and dangerous heights late this year or in 20247. 

In January, 2026, besides the Arctic, other areas that were much warmer than normal were Africa, which had its warmest January on record. Other hot areas include central Asia, southern Australia, much of western Canada, the western United States and the Atlantic Ocean between the Caribbean and Africa. 

UNITED STATES

The data confirms it: We had a remarkable west-east divide during January. 

Data confirms the Lower 48 had a warm west and a 
cold east Note that western temperatures were
near record highs, while eastern temperatures
were generally just somewhat cooler than average.

The East had a real winter, while the West was having a year without a winter in January. As NCEI tells us: 

"Temperatures were much above average across a large portion of the western third of the (United States). Oregon, California, Utah and Arizona each had one of the six warmest starts of the year. Along with Washington, Nevada and New Mexico, they each recorded their warmest December-January period on record."

Thought the East was cold, the chill didn't come close to breaking records for the month. Ohio came the closest, ending the month as 31st coldest out of the past 132 years. Pennsylvania was 32nd coldest .

For the record, we in Vermont had our 75th coldest January, or 57th warmest January, depending on how you want to look at it. 

Mix it all together and the United States ended up having its 19th warmest January. 

Precipitation was scant, despite a wide-ranging winter storm toward the end of the month. January ended up as the eleventh driest on record for the Lower 48. The Northwest and northern Rockies were particularly dry. Oregon and Montana had their fifth driest Januaries on record. 

Only four states - Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin were noticeably wetter than average and even those states did not come anywhere close to record wet.

Here in Vermont, we had our 48th driest January out of the past 132 years.  

January had a few other impressive weather events that I missed as they unfold.

On January 8 and 9 rare winter flash flooding occurred in parts of Wisconsin and Illinois amid a burst of record warmth that brought temperatures in the low 60s, and heavy rain. Up to three inches of rain fell near Chicago.  Chicago had as much rain in one day as they normally have in the entire month of January. 

Alaska had rough January. We already reported on the epic, record snows around Juneau in December and early January, which were followed by flooding. But two of Alaska's other larger cities had their own issues. 

The temperature in Fairbanks never got above zero for 32 consecutive days ending on January 14. That's the longest stretch of continuous subzero cold in more than 100 years.  Down in Anchorage, January snowfall set a record with 40.2 inches of snow.

On the warm side of things, St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands had their warmest January on record with an average temperature of 81.6 degrees.

 

Dramatic, Deadly Weather Has Returned To Much Of U.S. Blizzards, Wildfires And More

Wildfire entering neighborhoods in
Woodward, Oklahoma on Tuesday.
Wildfires and dust storms have
plagued the central and southern 
Plains since yesterday. 

We're entering the season in which storms and wind combine to create an enormous smorgasbord of dangerous weather. 

And that wild weather season is off with a big bang with a variety of scary weather going on around the nation. 

That weather action beganwith extreme wildfires in the central and southern Plains, dust storms, and drought-denting snow in the Rockies, feet of snow in the Sierra and a West Coast that has abruptly turned soggy after a month and half of uncharacteristic wintertime dry and warm weather

The new weather pattern is at least easing the harshest winter weather the eastern United States has seen in years or even decades. But the cost of this is dangerous storms that will eventually extend nearly  coast to coast.  

 WILDFIRES/DUST STORMS

 Wildfires raced through parts of northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas on Tuesday. One of the fires forced nearly 4,000 people to evacuate their Woodward, Oklahoma. Four firefighters have been injured so far. 

The Woodward County fire demolished three structures, including two a U.S. Department of Agriculture facility. 

One fire started in the Oklahoma panhandle and spread into Kansas, consuming 155,000 acres.  Video showed large fire whirls moving rapidly across the dry landscape and thick towers of smoke looming overhead. 

The storminess out west has helped produce strong, dry southwest and westerly winds across the Great Plains, which are already in drought. 

The winds died down slightly today, but not all that much, The fire threat hasn't gone away. A broad zone from eastern New Mexico to South Dakota and on to Iowa and Illinois are under a fire risk today.  To give you a sense of how chaotic the weather is in the Plains, southern South Dakota is under a fire alert today, while the northern part of the state, less than 100 miles away, is under a blizzard warning 

Wildfires are raging in Florida, too. A combination of drought, sunny, breezy weather and freezes earlier this month have turned the state into a powder keg. One fire in Vero Beach, Florida started from an illegal burn and threatened several homes.

Back in the Great Plains, dust storms also raged on Tuesday, especially in Texas, eastern Colorado and western Kansas and Nebraska.

 A dust storm on Tuesday along Interstate 25 near Pueblo, Colorado cut visibility and caused a 30-vehicle pileup. The crash killed four people and injured 29 others. 

Winds gusted to 68 mph in Amarillo, Texas and the relative humidity dropped to 13 percent. 

WESTERN STORMS

The storms shut down in California around the first of January, and pretty much no precipitation fell until this week. 

These new storms are easing fears that the lack of rain and snow might allow drought to start creeping back into California. 

The Sierra Nevada mountains are part way through a series of dumps that will leave several feet of new snow behind.  Some areas of the Sierra Nevada area had three feet of snow within 24 hours.Blizzards shut down all highways crossing the Sierra Nevada mountains, including heavily traveled Interstate 80. 

Nine back country skiers are missing and six were rescued following an avalanche near Lake Tahoe. 

 Video from Soda Springs, California, showed near zero visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow, The snow looked like it was accumulating very fast. Fox Weather had a chaotic report from the Heavenly Ski Resort in the Sierra amid almost zero visibility and a mess of stuck vehicles. 

There's an excellent YouTube channel called Tahoe Mountain Life that gives you just what the title says. Today's video on that channel gives you a great idea how things are like in this mountain blizzard. 

The UC Berkeley Snow Lab in the Sierra Nevada reported 29.3 inches of new snow in 24 hours and 57.5 inches within two days. Another two to three feet of snow is expected there by Friday. 

The snow level has dropped to 2,000 above sea level, which is quite a bit lower than it usually is. That
means more roads are either closed or dangerous for inexperienced winter drivers. 

A couple more feet of snow might fall up there by Thursday night.  It should stop snowing temporarily Friday, but more mountain snows should arrive Saturday and continue into the middle of next week. 

The heavy snow has been pushing eastward along the Canadian border through North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northern Michigan. Heavy snow with thunder and lightning over Duluth, Minnesota. 

SEVERE WEATHER

As if all this wasn't enough, a flash of severe weather is likely tomorrow in Indiana and parts of Illinois, Ohio and Kentucky.  There could even be a tornado or two. That's pretty far north to have a tornado this time of year. 

 

Snow To Miss All But Far Southern Vermont Today, But Statewide Snow Friday?

Still a bit of a canyon in the snow on the trip from my
front door to the truck in St. Albans, Vermont. Not
much snow melted over the past couple days.
Southern Vermont to get a little more snow later
today, and a few inches of snow looks likely
Friday and Friday night. 

 Yesterday afternoon, some clarity finally came into the forecast, and we learned that most of Vermont will avoid the snow today after all. 

The computer models finally got their act together and decided a cold front would push any snow coming in from the west more to the south. Only far southern Vermont is under the gun for snow today. 

However, there's a high chance of plowable snow Friday and Friday night. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

The southernmost two counties of Vermont are under a winter weather advisory late this afternoon and tonight. So is central New York and the western half of Massachusetts.  As has so often been the case this winter, the snow will hit down there just as this afternoon's commute home gets under way. 

In the valley floors around Bennington, Shaftesbury in the west, and near Brattleboro in the east, it might start out mixed with rain or sleet as temperatures will be a little above freezing as the precipitation gets under way. 

In part because of the mix, and the warm temperatures, accumulation won't be huge, maybe 1.5 to 3.5 inches in Bennington and Windham counties. A little light snow might make it as far north as about Route 4 this evening, but that's about it. 

The rest of Vermont will have a pretty nice day.  Fog, low clouds and haze were mixing out to reveal blue skies this morning. High clouds will dim  and maybe blot out the sun this afternoon in northern areas as as that disturbance heads toward southern Vermont. The northern half of the state will also be cooler than yesterday. But highs in the 26 to 33 degree range aren't bad!

THURSDAY

Looks great! Sunny, with highs in the 30s to near 40 in southern valleys. The Champlain Valley will actually be the chilliest part of the state instead of one of the warmest, like it usually is.

When the lake is frozen, it's even easier for a shallow layer of cooler air hugging the ground to slip southward from Quebec into the Champlain Valley.. So highs there will only be in the low 30s, while nearby hillsides above that shallow cold air flirt with 40 degree in spots.  

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT

This looks like the moment that will cheer Vermont snow lovers. One storm will head up from the central Plains to the Great Lakes where it will fade in favor of a new one forming just south of New England. The new storm will then head eastward out to sea.

We in Vermont look like we'll be in between the two storms. That'll put us into a position to get a good but brief thump of fairly heavy snow Friday afternoon or evening, followed by a long period of light snow lasting through much of Saturday. 

Early guesses give us four, five, maybe six inches of snow out of this. It won't be big storm, but it will probably mean most of Vermont will end the week with a slight net gain of snow cover,  despite some thawing we've had.

I'll have more details on this storm tomorrow.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

The Northeast looks like it will have a close miss early next week. A "bomb" nor'easter looks like it wants to form a little off the coast of North Carolina Sunday night. This thin will really turn into an absolute monster of a storm by Monday southeast of New England.

As it looks now, it'll probably cause some gales over Cape Cod and the islands.  We're lucky this thing will stay well offshore instead of hugging the New England coast.  If this nor'easter were to come right up into New England, there would be a blizzard with lots of coastal damage. 

We'll keep an eye on that nor'easter in case it wants to surprise us, but so far I think we're safe. 

Some really dramatic weather is hitting much of the U.S. I'll have a report on that here later today. For us in Vermont, it looks like we'll just keep being blissful bystanders.

 The weather pattern looks like it will stay active for us, with several small to medium sized storms possible through the first week of March. As it looks now, it seems like it might be cold enough so that most of what we get from those storms would be snow

Winter ain't over yet!  

The Pace Of Climate Change Is Accelerating. Will El Nino Make Things Worse?

The pace of climate change on Earth has quickened in
recent years. Will the faster pace get even faster, or
will things revert back to a more manageable pace.
That will have a lot of repercussions as how
we deal with a hotter planet.

 Now that it looks more likely an El Nino will set in later this year, scientists are debating how hot it will get. 

The three most recent years have been by far the world's hottest on record. El Ninos tend to make the world even hotter.

That's not good news. 

Since we're starting from such an already overheated position, will a new El Nino put ups on a  dangerous new trajectory in which the world will heat up at a new, faster pace. 

Or was it a hiccup, and we'll revert to a somewhat more relaxed but still scary increase in global heat?

Both options are bad, but the rapid heat up version is obviously most frightening, as we'd quickly enter a world where heat waves blow far past anything previously recorded and storms would make Hurricane Melissa look like a refreshing tropical shower. 

In the past decade or two, the past of global heating has accelerated. Which makes people wonder it were at the start of an era when things really spiral out of control.

WHERE WE ARE

A Washington Post analysis found that although the Earth has been warming for a century or more by now, the fastest rate of warming has been over the past 30 years. 

Per WaPo

"For about 40 years -- from 1970 to 2010 - global warming proceeded at a fairly steady rate. As humans continued to pump massive amounts of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, the world warmed about 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade or around 0.34 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Then, that rate began to shift. The warming rate ticked up a notch. Temperatures over the past decade increased buy close to 0.27 degrees  C per decade - about a 42 percent increase." 

In matters of climate, a decade is a really short period. So this new intense rate of warming might be a big deal. Or it could be a blip caused by factors other than fossil fuel emissions.

Ominously, a number of climate scientists are leaning toward the idea that this is a real acceleration that will last, especially since it's been so robust.

 "There is a greater acceptance now that there is a detectable acceleration of warming," said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.  

Many people in the eastern half of the United States can be forgiven if they think climate change is sputtering, since it's been so cold there. 

However overall, January was the world's fifth hottest on record. (I'll have more details on January in a separate post). 

While the eastern U.S. froze many other parts or the world were ablaze with unseasonable heat. Much of the western third of the United States has had a record warm winter. Nuuk, Greenland ran an incredible 20 degrees warmer than normal during January. And are plenty of other examples. '

In other words, the recent cold weather was just a temporary fluke. 

EL NINO URGENCY

This idea that climate change might be accelerating isn't all that new. The buzz began in earnest when 2024 became the hottest year on record. This, after 2023 absolutely obliterated 2016 as the previous worldwide record for hot year.

But as we went through 2025, a La Nina pattern that usually cools the Earth barely moved the needle downward. Last year was the third warmest on record, barely behind he previous two years. Now that La Nina is fading, we're starting at that high base line for when El Nino roasts the planet toward more records,.

The cooler La Nina was fading fast this month. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center last week said we'd go into neutral conditions soon (neither La Nina or El Nino). El Nino would probable wait until autumn to arrive. 

 Since El Nino is starting later this year, climatologists are beginning to make 2026 seems unlikely to become the hottest year.  

The UK Met Office is predicting 2026 will end up as second warmest, behind 2024. Which means it will be slightly warmer than the hot years of 2023 and 2024

Hausfather thinks 2026 will be among the top four hottest on record.

 The year to watch is 2027 when, if trends continue, the unprecedented global heat could turn especially intolerable.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

So why didn't the La Nina we just experienced over the past year or so fail to cool the world down noticeably?

One explanation for the added warming is pollution controls. We've seen news on this before, too. Asian nations, and the shipping industry have cut back on sulfur pollutions. Those environmental laws have removed particles called sulfate aerosols from the atmosphere. 

That allows the sun to shine stronger and brighter, heating the world even more.  

However, as WaPo explains, the missing sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere doesn't  explain all the recent warming.  Neither does natural variability.

Scientists, said they've notice low-lying cloud cover has decreased. Those clouds reflect sunlight. Fewer clouds mean more heat. 

One question is why are the clouds disappearing?  Clouds tend to form around particles. A lack of sulfate in the atmosphere might mean fewer particles for clouds to develop. This could create a feedback loop. Fewer clouds mean more heating. That additional heat makes still fewer clouds form, and it all feeds on itself from there.  

The Washington Post explains the question

"If most of the current record warmth is due to changing amounts of aerosol pollution, the acceleration would stop once aerosol pollutants reach zero - and the planet would return to its previous, slower rate.

But if it's due to a cloud feedback loop, the acceleration is likely to continue - and bring with it worsening heat waves, storms and droughts. 'If there is a strengthening cloud feedback - a positive cloud feedback associated with warming - that's going to persist,' Hausfather said."

The  bottom line is, we're playing with fire. The faster climate change moves, the harder it will be to adapt to it, and the more damage and suffering we'll encounter. 

This should be a sign we ought to double down on reducing fossil fuel emissions, and quickly. Humankind has barely been able to manage the changing climate so far. If things go a lot faster than they are now, god help us.  

After A Springlike Monday, Winter Returns To Vermont

Huge pile of snow an ice at my front door that 
crashed down seconds after Henry the Weather
Dog warned about it. Thawing temperatures
today will continue to sent ice  and snow
sliding from Vermont roofs

I hope you had a chance to go outside yesterday. It was such a relief to go outside without 15 layers of clothes on. Temperature in the 30s felt like hard core spring compared to what we went through this winter. 

And I have to give great kudos and thanks to Henry the Weather Dog.  He's just a little guy.weighing in at 18 pounds. 

We went outside yesterday afternoon to investigate just how warm it was getting.  The two of us were finishing up and were about to go in through the front door  of the house

A tiny piece of ice fell off the roof. Then Henry heard a noise that I didn't notice. He bolted away from the house. Since he was on a leash, he pretty much yanked me away, too. 

 As soon as we were far enough away, the entire roof load of ice and snow crashed down right where we had been standing by the door.

Both of us really could  have been hurt.  Good boy, Henry! 

That's just a reminder that there are still some big piles of snow and ice on roofs that could come crashing down, since it will be above freezing again today. You might not want to stand beneath one of those roof ice dams, or park your car there. 

Now on to the weather. 

TODAY

Henry the Weather Dog spent much of February like'
this, so he was happy for yesterday's warm weather
despite the close call with the snow sliding off the roof

A lot of us had a little wet snow and freezing drizzle this morning. It wasn't amounting to much and it will tend to taper off as we go through the day. I'm sure the weather this morning left some slick spots on untreated roads and sidewalks. It's still that time of year.

It was also mild overnight, which is a nice break on the heating bills. The Champlain Valley stayed in the mid-30s all night while the rest of the state was in the upper 20s for the most part. 

There's no real influx of warm air breezing in, so temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 30s today. A few warmer valleys could hit 40. There won't be much sun today, either.  No complaints here. That's still pretty nice for February.

That will be pretty much it for thawing for awhile. Daily high temperatures for at least the next week after today should mostly be near or below freezing. 

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

Frustratingly, forecasters are still struggling with what will happen tomorrow. A narrow band of precipitation will make its way into New England. Precipitation will probably come down at a good clip   for awhile in the midst of that band. Most of it should be snow, too. 

So who gets this slap of winter?   It's only a day before the event but the computer models are still struggling. At the moment, the snow band seems to be leaning toward setting up in southern Vermont.  

An early crack at guessing accumulations would bring three or four inches, maybe even five, to the southern half of Vermont. Central Vermont would get a couple inches and places north of Route 2 would see less than an inch. 

Don't be surprised if those  forecast amounts changes by tomorrow.  There's a chance that today's accumulation forecast turns out to be a complete work of fiction. Wherever this sets up, it'll probably come in right in time for the Wednesday afternoon commute. 

Beyond Wednesday, it looks like we'll stay in a wintry, active pattern. It won't be as cold as the first half of February was, but we're not getting an early spring, either. 

There's a solid chance of more snow Friday night from a mid-sized storm coming through. After that, several storms will pass fairly nearby through the rest of the month and into the opening days of March, but it's too soon to know how or even if they'll affect us here in Vermont.  

If you're tired of the snow in your yard, too bad. It's going to be there for awhile. 

Death Valley Strangely About To Become A Flowery Paradise

Death Valley, California looked anything
but dead in this photo of the last super
 bloom in 2016. It looks like Death
Valley is on the verge of a new 
super bloom.  Photo from Wildlife
Trekking/Facebook.

Work with me here, but I really wish I was in Death Valley now.

I know, I know . Why would I want to go to a ridiculously hot place that's barren, sandy, rocky and sometimes dangerous? 

The reason to go is a relatively rare super bloom of flowers that is just beginning to blossom into desert gorgeousness.    Since my big perennial beds in Vermont are buried beneath a foot of snow and are frozen rock solid, you can understand my reasoning. I desperately need winter flower therapy. 

Death Valley super blooms come maybe once in a decade. Park rangers there say there was one in 2016 and another in 2005. It was a pretty good flower year in 2024, but last year was pretty colorless amid drought and early season heat. 

Though a few flowers and interesting plants sprouts every year in February and March, this year's Death Valley Dream looks like it might be spectacular.  

To be Captain Obvious, Death Valley doesn't get a lot of rain. To get a super bloom, you need some heavy showers that come just at the right time.    The best time for that is late autumn or very early winter. 

This past November was soggy by Death Valley standards. They got 1.76 inches of rain, compared to normal of just 0.10. 

Next, you need warm weather. Temperatures have been above normal in the region over much of the winter. 

A cool spell is moving in to Death Valley, but it won't be enough to harm any plants. Plus, some more showers are likely daily today through Tuesday night. 

After this latest bout of rain, temperatures look like they'll start to warm up again in the desert, with temperatures maybe reaching close to 80 in about a week and a half. 

So it looks good. 

Super blooms go fast, as the desert designs plants so that they quickly sprout from seeds, produce flowers, then convert those flowers to a lot more seeds for next time. This will all happen well before summer, for good reason, Death Valley is the hottest place on earth. Summertime temperatures regularly go into the 110s and 120s,   . 

The best time to see the blooms is now through early April.  Wonderful flowers last into May in higher elevations. You can find some great flowers and plants as late as July way up high around 8,000 feet or higher. But who wants to climb a steep desert mountain when the temperatures is higher than the hot chocolate or coffee you're drinking as you read this.

Alas, I won't be going out to Death Valley for this year's super  bloom. But I hope other people do, and post what they see on line for the world to see.

VIDEO

That last Death Valley Super Bloom was in 2016.  Associated Press video walks you through how it looked like. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Still Not Much Clarity On Vermont Weather Forecast But Some New Clues Emerging

A big icicle formed on my shed yesterday as the
warming sun of mid-February increasingly fights
against the cold. Today will actually feel rather
springlike but winter isn't done with us yet. 

 If you have plans for this coming Wednesday and Wednesday night in Vermont, we can't help you much with any weather forecasts Those annoying computer weather forecasting models are still arguing amongst themselves. 

Which is odd, since Wednesday is only two days away. More on that in a minute, but if you are more of in the moment type, we've got you covered.

TODAY/TOMORROW

For starters, today will be the most springlike day we've had yet.  Temperatures should get well into the 30s across most valleys, and we should have a fair amount of sun, which feels warmer and stronger now that we're nearly two months past the winter solstice. Winds will be on the light side too,

I get it. A day with a high of 37 degrees isn't exactly full-blown spring. But it's a start after the frigid weather we've had over the past month. 

Any hints of spring are fleeting this time of year, too, and so it goes this time. Yet another weak disturbance should come through later tonight and early tomorrow. As has so often been the case this winter, the system is no big deal, but might have atrocious timing. 

The problem is some light snow showers might switch over to light, patchy freezing drizzle just in time for the Tuesday morning commute. In the case of any kind of freezing rain, it takes only a tiny bit to send your car flying off the road and into a ditch if you're not careful enough.

The tricky thing is this will be patchy and temperatures will be just below freezing. So you'll be cruising along on just wet pavement, then all of a sudden it's ice and the cars and trucks on the Interstate are suddenly doing a literally smashing dance with each other. 

So, slow it down just in case Tuesday morning. 

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

We're to the point now in which we can say there will probably be some sort of precipitation in at least part of Vermont Wednesday and Wednesday night.   

Tbat's not very helpful, but that's all we've got for now. 

A storm in the Midwest will be heading in our direction but it will be shearing out on its way east. That means the storm will be pulled and stretched and weakened. And therein lies the forecast questions. 

By the time it gets to New England, it will be a fairly narrow band of snow or mixed precipitation. Colder high pressure from Quebec will on Wednesday try to nose down into New England, while to the south, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will tried to feed into our weakening storm.

So, will the cold air win out and we get nothing? Or will the warm air win and we end up with a mix? Or, choice #3 favored by our winter sports industry, does this thing just drop a swath of snow right across Vermont.

For now, the best guess is far northern Vermont gets little or no snow, and perhaps far southern Vermont sees a mix with snow in the middle. Whatever happens, this doesn't look like it will be a blockbuster storm. 

But don't hang onto that gift to the ski gods scenario.  We should have a more clear view on this tomorrow. Or at least we'd better, as time is running out. 

After Wednesday, the weather pattern looks really active, so there will be several other chances for snow or a mix between now and early March.  I'm not even going to try and tease those out yet. 

"Frost Quakes" Another Aspect Of Harsh Winter Of '26 Not Seen In Ages

Frost quakes rarely cause damage, but in this recent case
it caused a bulge underneath a Michigan  convenience
store that damaged some of the flooring.   

It's a frigid winter night, and all of a sudden you hear a boom and the house shakes.

An earthquake, right? 

No, not in the traditional sense. People in several places in the eastern United States in recent weeks have experienced what are known as frost quakes. 

The Associated Press explains what these things are: 

"These noises are known as frost quake for cryoseisms, a cold-weather phenomenon that occurs when rain or melted snow in the ground quickly freezes, expanding as it solidifies, when temperatures rapidly fall below freezing. As the ice expands, pressure builds around the surrounding soil, causing it to crash  and make booming sounds and light shaking." 

Frost quakes can damage water mains due the shifting ground. However, most winter water main breaks come because frost shifts the ground without shaking it or making noise. Or water freezes in the water main itself, causing it to burst. 

More ominously, on extremely rare occasions, shifts in the ground can cause gas leaks.

However, frost quakes almost never cause appreciable structural damage, but there was recently such a case.  

 A frost quake in st. Claire Shores, Michigan  was strong enough to cause damage. At a 7-11 store on 11 Mile Road in St. Claire Shores, surveillance video shows a ridge suddenly rising across the floor in the middle of the shop.  An eight-foot long section of floor tile inside the store was destroyed. 

When the deep cold of this winter hit states around the Ohio River Valley, frost quakes were heard and felt across much of  Tennessee and Kentucky.  It usually doesn't get cold enough long enough there to get frost quakes, but this year was different. 

Frost quakes have also been reported in Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and other states this winter.

With a somewhat warmer weather pattern settling in now, more frost quakes are gotten less and less likely, unless you're in the relatively chilly air up near the Canadian border. 

A Rather Unpredictable Weather Week Coming Up For Vermont

This forecast weather map for this coming Wednesday
morning looks a bit frightening, with a sprawling storm
covering most of the U.S. Looks are deceiving, at least
for us in Vermont. Some precipitation might 
fall early in the week, but it's not definite, and if
we do get any, we don't yet know what kind.

 This is going to be one of those weeks where meteorologists might be tempted to thrown up their hands and say "You figure it out. "   

It's not that they're unprofessional or would actually do that,. But all the moving parts in the atmosphere are so jumbled that it's hard to tease out what we're going to get.

Overall, the best guess is it will be mostly relatively mild, pretty unsettled, but otherwise a pretty iffy weather week.   The forecast through about Tuesday is relatively easy, but after that, it's basically a flip of a coin

But, let's get into it the best we can.

In case you missed it, Burlington broke its long streak of subfreezing days on Saturday. After 22 days of staying below 32 degrees, the temperature briefly poked up to a pleasant 35. 

TODAY

It won't be quite as warm today. As expected, a weak cold front passed through most of Vermont overnight. It was in the single numbers at dawn in the north, with cold spots like Lake Eden getting s cold s 8 below. In the far south, the cold front never really arrived, so it stayed in the low 20s in places like Bennington.  

Temperatures will tend to even out statewide today. Highs will be in the 20s, with some low 30s south. Sun will fade behind some clouds, but it will be gorgeous day for skiing or other winter sports. Today's a great day to pretend to be winning gold at the Winter Olympics. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

A weak disturbance should come in tonight to throw a handful of snowflakes at us overnight. You might find maybe a dusting or a half inch of powder on your car in the morning.

The day itself will likely be the hottest it's been since mid-January. That's not saying much, since it'll only get into the mid-30s for most of us. Another weak disturbance - ever so slightly stronger than tonight's - will probably deposit a dusting to maybe a full inch of snow in spots on a balmy Monday night. 

I say balmy because lows will be in the 20s to around 30. 

Tuesday will still be warm with highs in the 30s to around 40.  One note or caution:  I see a lot of ice dams on many roofs. Some of those will let go over the next few days. In many villages and somewhat more urban areas around Vermont, people park their cars in the narrow spaces between houses. 

You might not want to do that as heavy chunks of ice could fall. Also, if you can, try not to walk under these frozen Swords of Damocles. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

Forecast weather maps for Wednesday morning look ominous. They show a strong, sprawling storm covering the entire middle of the U.S. and the Rocky Mountains.  Since storms tend to head east, you'd think we in Vermont were in for something really nasty. 

But it's not as scary as it looks. High pressure over northern and central Quebec will tend to shear this storm apart. Here's where we get into the "we have no idea what's going on" part of the forecast.'

Will that Quebec high pressure shunt the whole thing to our south?  Or will the storm come through, albeit in weakened fashion.  Will another storm follow on Friday and Saturday? If so, rain or snow or mix?

What will the temperatures be like? We know Vermont will be in part of the battle zone between warm from the south, and Arctic air to the north. Will frigid winter weather reassert itself? Or will we have more thawing? Maybe something in the middle, mild for February but not exactly warm?. 

All I can is stay tuned to this bat channel for answers we hope will appear within the next day or two.  

Burlington, Vermont Ends Its Longest Freeze In 11 Years

The temperature in the Champlain Valley of Vermont
briefly went barely above freezing, ending a 22-day
streak of continuous readings of under 32 degrees.
It was the longest such streak in 11 years. However,
me and Henry the Weather Dog won't be enjoying
the sunshine on our bench anytime soon. 

 As of 4 p.m. this pleasant Saturday afternoon in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature had risen to 34 degrees. 

That meant a 22-day long streak of below freezing temperatures had ended. This was the longest time Burlington spent below 32 degrees since a 27 day long streak of subfreezing weather ended on February 22, 2015.

Today's mild weather came just one day after Lake Champlain was declared frozen over for the first time since March, 2019. 

This year's streak of cold, freezing days didn't even make the top 10 for longest such stretch. Tenth place is occupied by there years that had 29 days in a row at or under 32 degrees.

The longest stretch of such nippy air ran 51 days from December 22 1976 to February 10, 1977.

It looks like the long subzero streaks are still going on in Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, as preliminary data shows they didn't get above 32 this afternoon. 

Today's thaw, if you can call it that, will seem like a distant memory by tomorrow morning. That tiny little swirl of frigid air diving into Maine today is also driving  a shot of pretty cold air into Vermont tonight. 

By dawn tomorrow, temperatures will be just a few degrees above zero or the most parts, with colder valleys below zero once again. Tomorrow will be nice, but a little cooler than today with highs in the mid-20s.

More thawing - at least in the valleys - is due Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 30s, except some low 40s Tuesday. 

Don't worry, although it's theoretically possible to have another 22 days of subfreezing weather this year, the chances of it happening are diminishing fast. Normal temperatures have begun their slow ascent as spring nears. That'll make it increasingly hard for afternoons to stay under 32 degrees 

I'll have an updated Vermont forecast in tomorrow morning's post