Why You'll Never Receive A Wind Chill Warning Ever Again

The National Weather Service has scrapped wind chill
advisories and instead will issue cold weather advisories
or cold weather warnings when dangerously low
temperatures are expected. The logic: It doesn't matter
if it's windy or not.  If it's really cold, it's really
cold regardless of whether the wind blows or not.

 No, this isn't about climate change. 

Despite a warming planet, we in New England and many other parts of the United States will continue to see bouts of dangerously cold weather during the winter. 

But the headline on this post is accurate. The National Weather Service will never again issue a wind chill advisory or a wind chill warning. 

Those warnings have been replaced by weather alerts that the National Weather Service and social scientists hope will be simpler and easier to understand and absorb. 

For the first time this season, one of these new weather alerts has been issued for our area.  There's what is now known as a cold weather advisory up for Adirondacks tonight and early Sunday. 

Cold weather advisories replace what used to be wind chill advisories. These advisories alert people that  it's going to be pretty cold and to bundle up, because of the risk of frostbite and hypothermia, but it won't get quite as bad as it can get in that location

What used to be a wind chill watch is now a cold weather watch, meaning the it's becoming likely it will get dangerous cold. The old wind chill warning is now a cold weather warning, which means it's dangerously frigid outside, and you're better off staying indoors. If you must go out during a cold weather warning, make sure no skin is exposed to the bitter air. 

The National Weather Service explains why the winter cold alerts are now different:

"These changes seek to clarify that cold can be dangerous with or without wind, addressing a common misconception that extreme cold is only tied to colder temperatures when there is wind. Dangerously cold weather can accompany or follow wintry precipitation and the cold messaging can be overshadowed by wintry precipitation."

If the cold spell in question is windy, the cold weather warning will definitely mention the wind chill risk in the text of the warning. But it will emphasize that cold is cold.  It really doesn't matter whether the actual temperature is 30 below, with no wind,  or if the actual temperature is 0, but blustery air brings the wind chill down to minus 30.

Either way, it's dangerous.  

These new warnings haven't gotten much of a workout here in Vermont yet.  After tonight's in the Adirodacks, there might be further cold weather advisories Sunday and Sunday night. But after that, a warming trend will preclude these new warnings.  

We'll have to get used to them in January, I guess. 

Vermont Lake Effect Snow Develops In Champlain Valley; Up to 6 Inches Snow Possible

National Weather Service radar this morning showed
two lake effect snow bands coming off of Lake 
Champlain. One was hitting an area in and around
Colchester and Milton, while another stronger one
was in southern Chittenden County and 
in Addison County. 

 As mentioned in a post earlier today, it's still snowing a little across Vermont. 

But in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, especially in Addison County and the southern half of Chittenden County, something of a lake effect snowstorm has blossomed this morning. A winter weather advisory has been issued or those two counties. 

Areas along the Route 7 corridor from near the shores of the lake to the western slopes of the Green Mountains in this area can expect a storm total of up to six inches of snow.

There was actually two  snow bands coming off Lake Champlain this morning. One, was coming in from east of Grand Isle into Milton, Colchester and Burlington  

The second, stronger band was focusing on places like Charlotte, Shelburne and Ferrisburgh and nearby areas. 

So far 5.7 inches of snow had fallen at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington,  as of mid-morning and I'd say half or more of that was lake effect. 

These  pales in comparison to some of those epic storms you see off the Great Lakes. But it does show Lake Champlain is capable of creating its own little snowstorms.  Especially after a warm autumn when the contrast between lake and water temperature is great, and there's no ice on the lake.

Drier air moving in this afternoon should weaken and eventually end these snow bands. 

Small Snowfall Over-Performs, White Christmas Guaranteed Vermont/Much Of New England

A nice little coating of snow has appeared around St.
Albans, Vermont. A little over two inches of snow fell
since Friday afternoon, and it was still snowing a
little as of 8 a.m Saturday 

The snow that hit New England Friday afternoon and evening was by no means a blockbuster - nobody ever thought it would be - but it did over-perform. 

By that I mean the snow was a bit more persistent and in some cases deeper than many of us thought it would be. That lead to some trouble on the roads, but also guaranteeing a white Christmas for many of us in New England, and large swaths of New York and Pennsylvania.

I don't yet have many snow reports as of early this morning. 

But as of midnight, Burlington, Vermont had received 2.5 inches of new snow.  A little more fell after midnight. As of 7 a.m. today, my place in St. Albans had 2.2 inches of new fluff.

It was still snowing a little in both cities as of 8:15 a.m,, and in fact, the pace of the falling snow had temporarily picked up a bit since dawn.   

Forecasts ahead of the snow called for one to three inches in Vermont, and it looks like a number of places will go a little past that amount.  

Especially since parts of Vermont and the Adirondacks could see another one to three inches of snow today. 

It was still lightly snowing there and in most of Vermont and adjacent New York, New Hampshire and southern Quebec as of dawn today. 

The snow yesterday and last night was never intense enough to trigger any kind of winter weather advisories, but it did make a mess on the roads for the Friday evening commute.

Traffic was heavier than usual, what with the people coming home from work and school and people heading to and from Christmas activities and shopping. 

The snow was deceptive, too.  You get an attitude, "Ah, it's only light snow." But all those car and truck tires often compacted that little bit of snow into a thin, hard to see sheen of black ice. 

The result was traffic back ups around crashes and slide offs. Interstate 89 southbound near Exit 17 in Colchester, Vermont was briefly closed Friday afternoon due to a crash.

It was slow going in the Boston area, and much of the rest of Massachusetts yesterday afternoon, too. 

Eastern Massachusetts ended up getting an unexpectedly good thump of snow, guaranteeing a surprise white Christmas in Boston and environs. Boston saw 5.2 inches of new snow Friday.  A few places in that area got around six inches of snow.

New York's Central Park received 1.8 inches of snow as of this morning. That opens the possibility of the Big Apple's first White Christmas since 2009.  (Though there was a trace on the ground in 2017. And in 2010, there was no New York snow on Christmas, but 20 inches fell on Dec. 26-27 that year).

Roads around the region were still iffy this morning, so be careful out there Road crews are out, but some falling snow is still sticking to the roads, 

 FORECAST

We've got a traditionally frigid pre-Christmas weekend underway in New England, a contrast to recent past balmy Christmas times.

As mentioned, it'll keep snowing in Vermont today. Just flurries in the valleys, really. Some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains and ski areas could get another couple inches of super light fluff today.     

The temperature continues to fall, - a trend that started Thursday. It was mostly in the teens across Vermont as dawn broke this morning, and readings will barely rise through the day.  A steady north wind will make it feel colder. 

The temperature still looks like it will fall to within a few degrees either side of 0 tonight.

The sun will come out tomorrow, as the song goes, but it won't heat us up at all. Temperatures will stay in the single numbers to maybe low teens in some of the milder spots. Those readings will crash tomorrow night, with everybody below zero by late Sunday night and towards dawn Monday A lucky few near Lake Champlain that will hold near zero.

We do see a bit of a milder trend heading toward Christmas and beyond, but it won't be as much of a warmup as earlier forecast.  Highs should reach near 20 Monday, in the 20s Christmas Eve and maybe near 30 or so Christmas.

Another weak system looks like it will spread some more light snow across the region to grace our surroundings on Christmas Eve. Gotta keep things looking traditional, so of course some Charlie Brown Christmas Special snow as we await Santa.

 

Last Week's Drenching Rainstorm Improved Vermont/New England Drought Only A Little

Yes, we had heavy rain in Vermont a little over a 
week ago, but the latest U.S Drought Monitor still
has southern Vermont in drought, (orange shading)
and the rest of the state as abnormally
dry (yellow shading)

 On Wednesday, December 11, between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain drenched Vermont. That was a pretty soggy rainstorms for December, dropping almost as much precipitation as some sections of the state get all month. 

It came during a drought, so that prevented any real flood problems. Despite all the rain, the episode proved how hard it is to erase a drought once it becomes established.  These things never go away after just one good rainstorm. 

Those drought conditions did improve with the rainstorm, but only to an extent. 

Every corner of the state is still regarded as abnormally dry, even though you might have encountered a little mud underfoot this week. 

But before the storm, drought encompassed all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, which was just "abnormally dry" according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Last Wednesday's storm erased the drought that covered most of northern and central Vermont, but it's still ongoing across southern Vermont. Instead of 70 percent of Vermont in drought, only 23 percent is as of this week. 

All of southern Vermont except a narrow strip right along the New York border is still considered in drought. The southeast corner of Vermont, down by Brattleboro, is still actually in severe drought. 

As the ground freezes up for winter now, I imagine it will be hard to erase the drought or abnormally dry conditions in the state.  I'm guessing the only way we'll get rid of the dryness once and for all is to see some nice accumulations of snow building up, then some decent spring rains.

Vermont has gotten a little more precipitation since the storm on December 11, but not all that much. 

Last week's storminess also affected the rest of the Northeast, and drought improved  as a whole across that entire region as well.  A week early, about 65 percent of the Northeast was in drought, this week, it's down to 46 percent.

An area of extreme drought in Massachusetts was reduced in severity to severe drought. It doesn't sound like an improvement but it is.  Almost every state in the region saw some improvement, but the U.S. Drought Monitor says it's still going to take a lot more precipitation for true relief from the drought.

Hey, at least the forests aren't burning like they were back in November.  

The outlook is mixed for more substantial precipitation in the coming coming weeks. It looks like it will probably be drier than normal for the next week or so in Vermont, though there will still probably be some episodes of light precipitation.

It does seem possible the weather pattern could get stormier beyond about a week from now.

Burlington, Vermont's Longest Ever Streak Of Continuously Above Zero Temperatures Could End This Weekend.

Rime ice on trees on Burlington, Vermont's waterfront on
a subzero morning in February, 2023.  Burlington has, as
of this month, broken a record for most consecutive days
continuously above zero. That streak has a very good
chance of being broken this weekend. 

As of yesterday, Burlington, Vermont has gone - by my calculation, - 661 consecutive days without the temperature going to or below 0 degrees.  

The last time it was zero degrees, as measured at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, was on February 26, 2023.  

The old record for consecutive days above zero was 654 days between February 22, 2001 and December 9, 2002.

In more than 120 years of records, Burlington has only had two winters in which the temperature never got to zero. 

Those were the winter of 2001-02 and last winter, which was the warmest on record.  The winter of 2001-02 used to be the warmest on record, but we've had four other winters since 2015-16 that were even toastier.

It's just another example of how climate change has affected our seasons here in Vermont. 

WEEKEND SETUP

All big streaks must come to an end, and I'd give the chances of the current continuous stretch of above zero temperatures ending this weekend at about 50/50.

We have a couple factors that favor it.   A weak system should dump an inch or two of snow on Burlington later today through Saturday morning. It will be light and fluffy and not amount to much.  But snow cover helps make clear, calm nights cooler.   

Another factors is that a strong high pressure system will be oriented to pull Arctic air down from northern Quebec. 

Then that high will settle pretty much overhead, especially Sunday night and early Monday.  When that happens, winds tend to die off and skies clear. Which means Burlington has a pretty strong shot at being at or below zero by dawn Monday. 

There's a few factors that might work against it getting below zero.  A thick, deep fresh snow cover is much more effective at refrigerating winter nights than the measly inch or two we're likely to see on the ground in Burlington this weekend. 

Winds stirring through Sunday morning might keep temperatures above zero in the Champlain Sunday morning. By dawn Monday, the core of the coldest air will be beginning to head off to the east, which could prevent a zero degree reading. 

Also, Lake Champlain is still warm and almost entirely free of ice. I don't think the warm influence of the lake will extend all that strongly to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, which is a few miles inland from the lake.

But the contrast between the warm lake and cold air could generate clouds. If that happens, the clouds would tend to keep temperatures above zero.

So it's a tossup as to whether it will hit zero in the Champlain Valley.  It's a lock for below zero weather in most of the rest of Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire. And Quebec for that matter. 

The coldest hollows of Northeast Vermont and the Adirondacks could be in the teens to near 20 below during this episode.

SUBZERO WEATHER DECLINING

Subzero nights in the Champlain Valley are still routine in most winters, but their numbers are declining. 

Attitudes like that depicted in this cartoon are getting
more rare in Vermont as the number of days that
get below zero are declining. 

Accurate daily temperature records for the winter started in about 1901-02.  In the 88 years between that winter and the winter of 1989-90, only seven winters had fewer than ten days that got below zero.

In the 33 years since then, 13 winters had fewer than ten subzero days. 

It's possible the heat island effect from added commercial development in South Burlington has contributed some to the lack of subzero nights in recent years, but climate change is almost surely having a hand in it, too.

If you're a glutton for punishment and like subzero weather, there's always the possibility we could have a  winter with a lot of 'em.  Some winters will still be cold, depending on weather patterns, with or without climate change.

But as the world heats up,  the chances of seeing a winter with dozens of subzero nights locally here in Vermont  keeps declining. 

The record for the most days that got to zero or colder in one season is 45 such day, back in the frigid winter of 1933-34. In February, 1979, we had 12 consecutive days with temperatures below zero, with the coldest in the streak at 30 below, a tie for the coldest on record in Burlington. 

 I'll almost guarantee we'll never see something like that again.  

Dashcam Shows Intensity Of California Tornado

 The rare California tornado that struck the community Scotts Valley last Saturday was "only" and EF-1 with a brief path. Wind topped out at 90 mph, and it only traveled for about a third of a mile before dissipating. 

In a screen grab from a dash cam in a parked truck
in Scotts Valley, California last Saturday, a tornado
emerges from behind a 7-Eleven and in a couple
seconds, will flip the vehicle with the dash cam.

A dash cam video of that tornado which recently emerged shows the power and suction of even a modest tornado that pales in comparison to the monsters that sometimes roam the Great Plains and South. 

Television station KSBW aired footage from a dash cam in a truck parked in the Mt. Herman shopping center lot that was hit by the storm. The video is at the bottom of this post.

In the video, things initially don't seem so bad. There's increasing wind and rain, and some small branches zip by in the gusts. But soon enough a narrow but violent looking funnel appears from behind a 7-Eleven store

The debris-filled swirl hits the front of the truck, then goes over it, flipping it on its side, coming to rest against a white car parked next to it.  The funnel is so narrow that it didn't really hit the white car just a couple feet to the right. That white car stays pretty much where it was.   

The truck that contained the dash cam was totaled, said owner Myrl Wallace. 

This small tornado demonstrates graphically that it's always important to seek shelter in a sturdy building if you hear a tornado warning. Vehicles are not safe places in tornados. 

It doesn't look like anybody was in the truck with a dash cam. And in the Scotts Valley case, the twister formed so quickly there was no tornado warning. But you get the idea. 

To view the video, click on this link. Or, if you see the image below, click on the image below

UPDATE: Among Many Potential Casualties Of Musk/Trump Shutdown Effort Is Critical Disaster Aid

House Speaker Mike Johnson worked out a deal to prevent
the government from shutting down, but it appears his 
overlords Elon Musk and Donald Trump don't approve.
Which means the government has a high chance of 
shutting down, and badly needed FEMA disaster
relief won't go to victims who have 
already been waiting a long time for help. 

 So, President Musk, I mean, President-elect Trump don't like the budget deal that would prevent a government shutdown, so these kings of chaos want to make a mess.  

They're doing a good job of it. 

Sure, the negotiated deal between Republican and Democratic house members is a bit o a cumbersome mess.

The whole effort by Musk to shut everything down, though, seems designed solely to throw a monkey wrench into the workings of government by any means necessary, and this is just the opening salvo of the chaos that we will endure for the next four years. 

This being a weather and climate blog, I'll ignore for now most of the zillions of things that will go wrong if there is a government shutdown.

But part of the deal that Musk and Trump and the MAGA crowd don't like is the more than $100 million in badly needed FEMA relief money from the weather and climate disasters we've had in the past year. Those included Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and the some of the flood disasters here in Vermont.

Per CBS News:

The now-threatened funding "included $110.4 billion in disaster aid:  $29 billion for FEMA's disaster relief fund; $8 billion for federal highways and roads, $12 billion for the Community Development Block grants and disaster relief; and $3.2 for Tribal Assistance grants. It also replenishes the Small Business Administration's disaster loan program with $2.2 billion. The program was exhausted in the aftermath of Hurricanes Milton and Helene earlier this year."

Vermont's Congressional delegation say they are ready to vote for the continuing resolution if it includes  the disaster aid. "I will not abandon Vermonts. I will not abandon those around the country impacted by flooding, wildfires, hurricanes and other extreme weather. I will not vote for a continuing resolution without comprehensive disaster aid," Sen. Peter Welch, D-VT said via a posting on Threads. 

Bottom line: Those of you who need help from the federal government after enduring climate and weather disasters are on their own, at least if shadow president Elon Musk, Trump and his minions have their way. Which seems a near certainty.

We'll see whether a deal is reached by Friday, but I'm not holding my breath.  

Small "Snowstorm" Was A Bust In Vermont Valleys; One More Shot At Whitish Christmas

This tiny patch of frozen snow on my St. Albans, 
Vermont property this morning at the moment represents
our only hint of a white Christmas. But we have
one more shot of an inch or two of snow tomorrow
and Saturday.

 Last night's small storm was a flop in most of Vermont's valleys. 

The thing never had much cold air to work with anyway, and there was even a little less than forecast. The result was a few hours of light rain that never did end as a period of snow, as some people hoped

In fact, it was still above freezing in many areas of Vermont as dawn approached this morning - hours after the bulk of the precipitation had moved away

Higher elevations -  as expected - did receive some snow, so your ski areas got a fresh little coat. 

 Also, traffic cameras this morning  are showing a dusting to a couple of inches of new snow in parts of central and eastern Vermont, but low elevations all through western Vermont show bare ground. 

Temperatures were falling, and we've already seen our high temperatures for the day. Untreated roads, driveways and sidewalks are freezing up early this morning, so be careful out thee.

But there will be precious little snow with this, maybe flurries in the valleys and another inch of fluff way up high. Still, if you have snow on the ground this morning, you'll have snow on the ground on Christmas.

To me, it's not that important whether we have a white Christmas or not.  I do know we have fewer of them in Vermont than we used to. Back in the 1960s and 1970s, it happened almost every year. Now,  our age climate change, not quite so much. 

The unofficial rule of thumb is a white Christmas requires at least an inch of snow on the ground. In the decade of Christmases ending last year in Burlington, six out of 10 years had a white Christmas. So it's gotten inconsistent in the age of climate change. 

For those of you who do want snow on the ground for Christmas morning, there's still some hope. 

A weak Alberta clipper that is to bring frigid air to us this weekend had been expected to pretty much fall apart on its way here. Earlier forecast indicated this thing would bring plenty of cold air with it, but no snow. 

Turns out the Alberta clipper's last gasps will be enough to spread some snow over us.  Not much, and it will be light and fluffy and nothing substantial, but it does look like it might snow pretty much region wide later Friday and part of Saturday. 

A fairly strong storm forming well east of the New England coast Friday night and Saturday might also add just a little lift to the atmosphere to squeeze out a little snow. (The storm itself will entirely miss New England).

Bottom line: We have at least a shot of seeing one to three inches of fluff by the time the potential snow ends later Saturday. The one inch amounts are more likely in the valleys, with three inches up high.

You're going to want to hide behind the parkas and scarfs Saturday and especially Sunday and Monday morning as temperatures will be well below normal. Highs on Sunday will only be 8 to 15 above, and many of us will be below zero Sunday and Monday mornings. 

Temperatures will moderate by Christmas to near normal temperatures for this time of year.  

Little Storm Is In Vermont This Evening, Cold Rain Valleys, Snow Up On Hills

About as dank and dark as you can get this time of
year, as a snow-free landscape drinks up a chilly
drizzle Wednesday afternoon in St. Albans, Vermont.
We might end up with a little snow overnight to
brighten things up, but no blockbuster. 

Our little storm is here in Vermont late this afternoon. The valleys were getting a cold, November-like rain, and that rain was mixing with snow in mid elevations, and it was snowing up at the ski areas.  

Which is good.

This won't be an incredible storm by any stretch of the imagination. There's not even any kind of winter weather advisories out there. 

That's mostly because most of Vermont's populated areas are in valleys, where little snow will accumulate tonight. 

Still, during bursts of heavier precipitation this evening, the rain will tend to change to snow, and in southern Vermont, you could get a quick inch within an hour the heavier bands of snow.  I imagine the National Weather Service office in South Burlington will issue a special weather statement this evening to warn us the roads kinda suck. 

Road conditions were already just starting to get worse in higher elevations as of 5 p.m. Traffic cameras were showing it snowing fairly hard in high spots like Route 17 in Buels Gore and Route 4 in Mendon. Those conditions will gradually get lower and lower in elevation as the evening wears on. 

Temperatures were gradually cooling enough for the slow transition to snow to happen. I noticed that between 4 and 5 p.m., both Newport and Montpelier, Vermont flipped from rain to snow, though temperatures in both communities were still above freezing. 

In the end, most of us will see one to three inches of snow, with maybe even less than that near Lake Champlain and the warmer valleys of southwest and southeast Vermont. Some of the ski areas could still clock in with six inches of snow with this. 

Unlike what I pessimistically said this morning, if tonight doesn't give you a white Christmas, there are some other subtle chances coming up of seeing snow covered ground by the time Santa's sleigh lands.

We're still looking at a dusting of snow Friday and Saturday as the weather turns frigid. And it now looks like we might see some sort of weak weather system Christmas Eve and part of Christmas Day. We don't know if that will bring us snow or mixed precipitation, and if so,  how much. 

But it's something to keep an eye on, since many of us will be traveling that day. 

Mega-Disaster Cyclone That Might Have Killed Thousands On Island Strangely Ignored

Death and devastation on the island of Mayotte, north
of Madagascar after a devastating cyclone hit this week.

A powerful cyclone struck the tiny island Mayotte, possibly killing more than a thousand people, but so far, it hasn't really been in the news much for some reason.  

That's a surprise, given the magnitude of the disaster. 

Mayotte is a French territory off the east coast of Africa, a little north of Madagascar and east of northern Mozambique. To be honest, it's the first time I've heard of this place, and I'm good at geography. It's too bad this new knowledge came because of a tragedy. 

The cyclone was the most powerful to hit the island in more than a century.  Abnormally warm water on the path of the approaching storm fueled the storm, making is stronger than it otherwise would be. The island is heavily populated, and impoverished. The combination looks like it proved lethal.

From the Associated Press:

"Mayotte resident Fahar Abdoulhamidi described the aftermath as chaotic. In Mamoudzou, the capital, destruction was total - schools, hospitals, restaurants and offices were in ruins. Roofs were ripped from homes, and palm trees were half-shorn from winds that exceeded 136 mph, according to the French weather service."

At last report, rescuers were searching for victims and bodies, but some areas were still inaccessible to emergency teams. 

The potential death toll was made worse because many ignored cyclone warnings in the day before it hit, apparently underestimating its power, reports the AP.

"'Nobody believed it would be that big,' Abdoulhamidi told the Associated Press by phone. 'Those who live in bangs stayed in despite the cyclone, fearing their homes would be looted,' he said, referring to the island's informal settlements." 

Estimates of how many people died range widely in the hundreds or thousands. We might never know how many people were lost in the cyclone. Officials said it would be hard to count the deaths and many won't ever be recorded, in large part because of the Muslim tradition of burying people with 24 hours. 

The Washington Post offers more context as to why the death toll is likely so high:

"The damage is feared to be especially severe in the slums of Mayotte, where many undocumented immigrants live. Estelle Youssouffa, a member of France's National Assembly representing Mayotte, tweeted Sunday that shantytowns have been 'razed' and some of their inhabitants engulfed in mud and sheet metal' Most of the houses there were stripped of their roofs, she said, and there was no electricity, water or food."

France is rushing rescuers to the island, but it might be too little too late.

Cyclones, which is the name for hurricanes in the region, are fairly common in the southwestern Indian Ocean and frequently hit spots like Madagascar and eastern Africa.  This one was the 22nd documented cyclone to pass within 30 nautical miles of Mayotte, but obviously, it was the worst in a century or so.

Even with this relative frequency of cyclones, climate change is rearing its ugly head in this cyclone region. 

WaPo again: 

"'The intensity of tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean has been increasing, and this is consistent with what scientists expect in a changing climate - warmer oceans fuel more powerful storms,' said Liz Stephens, a professor of climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading in Britain."

Unfortunately, Mayotte probably won't be the last huge cyclone tragedy we'll see in or near Africa in the coming years.  

Drone video shows the devastation on Mayotte. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Vermont's Iffy Shot At A White Christmas Tonight, Then A Cold Blast

If you don't have snow on the ground now, a storm
later today and tonight gives you the best chance of
a white Christmas. Though it's still iffy in the
Champlain Valley and lowlands of southern 
parts of the state. 

There's still some snow on the ground in much of eastern Vermont and in the high elevations, but lower spots in western and central Vermont are seeing bare ground just a week before Christmas.  

Since so many people are invested in having a traditional White Christmas, will it actually happen?

That's a big maybe.  Depends what happens later today and tonight. 

A modest storm is coming through, passing just to our south tonight. That path would normally put Vermont in the sweet spot for some snow, and for sure, most of us should get some. 

This time, though, there's not a lot of cold air to work with, so things could go either way. 

The storm is coming in a little faster than first thought, which means it'll start this afternoon. When it's warmer.  The higher elevations are fine. It'll snow, and just that'll just add to whatever's on the ground there. 

The valleys, though, will start off as rain.  Plus, it doesn't look like it will cool off all that rapidly as we head into tonight.  Which leaves valley dwellers in communities like Burlington, Middlebury, Rutland, Bennington and Brattleboro are in a race against time.

Will it get cold enough later tonight for it to snow before the moisture from this storm gets whisked away, ending the precipitation?

Said precipitation could come down  hard for a time in south central Vermont. Heavier precipitation tends to cool the atmosphere a little, so those areas stand a better chance of seeing some snow.  No guarantees for those of you on valley floors in Rutland, Castleton, Fair Haven and Clarendon, though.  But you all have a shot of at a couple inches of snow at least. 

The southern and central Champlain Valley seems problematic to me. The National Weather Service hour-by-hour temperature graphic has Burlington's temperature only falling to 34 degrees or so by 3 a.m.  By then, most of the small storm will be leaving the state, so areas close to the lake might get screwed out of snow. 

I think the northern Champlain Valley up by Georgia, St. Albans, Swanton, those sort of place will manage to squeeze out an inch or two of snow. Not sure about the Champlain Islands, though. 

All this said, the National Weather Service forecast - and anybody else's forecast for that matter - has a high bust potential.  If it gets a little colder than forecast, everybody gets at least a couple inches of snow, and more likely a few inches. If it stays a little warmer, more people get rain. 

For now, it looks like most places will clock in with two or three inches of snow, with greater amounts the higher up you go.  Places near Lake Champlain, and the lowest elevations of southwest and southeast Vermont maybe only an inch. Or possibly less. 

Do plan on some tricky driving conditions tonight. The higher you go in elevation, the worse it will get. 

MUCH COLDER

Once temperatures get below freezing later tomorrow morning or afternoon, it will stay below that magical 32 degree reading until Christmas Day afternoon at the earliest. So any snow that does fall will stick. Plus, there's a chance of a little more snow Friday and Saturday, but there would be no more than a dusting in the valleys. The ski areas could pick up a couple additional inches of fluff, though.

Be prepared to shiver Saturday through Monday, as the toughest cold snap of the year so far is still in the cards.  It won't be anything close to record-breaking, but it will feel shockingly chilly given the warmth we've had all year. 

Banana belt towns will see highs in the teens to around 20 and lows close to 0 during this episode. Most of the rest of Vermont gets below zero Saturday and Sunday nights. 

A major and possibly fairly long lasting warm up does look like it wants to start either Christmas afternoon or the day after. That relative balminess could last to the New Year, depending on whether iffy long range forecasts hold.  

Arctic Now Becoming Emitter Of Carbon Dioxide, That Dreaded Greenhouse Gas

In this photo from U.S. Bureau of Land Management,
permafrost, which has been increasingly thawing in
the Arctic, erodes into the Beaufort Sea.

Once upon a time, the Arctic used to be the place where carbon dioxide went to die.  

At least it seemed that way. It would get stored in the permafrost, seemingly locked in that icy prison never to bother us in the atmosphere again. never to bother us in the atmosphere again. 

Back in the day, that didn't matter much anyway.  There wasn't so much carbon dioxide in the air, so no real climate change. At least that's the way it was a century or more ago.

Now, just when we don't need more greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the Arctic is starting to belch it out, according to new information from NOAA. 

 The world has warmed up enough through climate change to alter the ecosystems of the Arctic, and that is prompting that stored carbon in the permafrost to come out of hiding to join the world's hot and getting hotter party. 

The news comes the 2024 Arctic Report Card, researched and written by 97 scientists from 11 countries.

NOAA says

"After storing carbon dioxide in frozen soil for millennia, the Arctic tundra is being transformed by frequent wildfires into an overall source of carbon to the atmosphere, which is already absorbing record levels of heat-trapping fossil fuel pollution."

Wildfires in the areas of North America with permafrost have increased in the past couple decades. The report says that since 2003, emissions from polar wildfires averaged 207 million tons of carbon each year. That's more than the annual carbon emissions from nations like Argentina and Austria. 

Arctic wildfires are only a relatively small piece of the problem.  The permafrost is melting more and more, releasing carbon into the air instead of storing it. That's why, for the first time, the Arctic is making the climate change problem worse, not better.

I found a good explanation of this at NPR:

"Twila Moon, lead editor of the Arctic Report Card and  scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, likened permafrost to chicken in the freezer: As long as it stays frozen, microbes stay away.

'Once you have that chicken out of your freezer, it's thawing and all those microbes are getting to work, breaking down the chicken, making it rot,' she said. 'The permafrost is really doing the same thing.'"

There was the tiniest glimmer of good news from Greenland, but it was definitely nothing to get the Champagne and confetti out to party. 

The Greenland Ice sheet mass loss was the lowest since 2013, mostly because it snowed more than usual up there. Still, the ice shoot lost somewhere in the broad range of 22 and 77 billion tons of ice last year. 

That was enough to raise the global sea levels by 0.15 millimeters. Which is too small for anybody to notice. But if you add in all the other sources of sea level rise, and compound them year after year, it starts to make a big difference. 

This report demonstrates that the Arctic has changed much in just a few decades. There's no way it's going to stay as it is  now, either. It's going to get worse.

The Arctic is the fastest warming region of the world.  There's no signs, and no reasons for that warming to slow down as fossil fuel emissions keep cranking.  Since the Arctic is also adding those emissions, if anything, the pace at which the Arctic deteriorates will also increase.  

Christmas Seasons Past Shiver Vermont Timbers. Recent Years, Not So Much

 Sure, we have some pretty nippy weather coming up this weekend, and there's snow in the forecast here and there.  

A pre-Christmas snow globe look to Burlington's
Intervale in December, 2017.  Holiday season
cold and snow use to be pretty extreme in Vermont
decades ago, but in recent years, not so much. 

But comparing this season with Vermont's holiday season history of intense cold, blizzards shows just how wimpy pre-Christmas weather has gotten in recent years.   

As I mentioned this past Sunday, this has been a pretty easy early winter.  In many years in the week or so leading up to Christmas, the weather turned Vermonters' Ho Ho Ho quickly into Bah Humbug.

The most recent example came just last year, when destructive flooding smashed parts of the state on December 18-19, inundating neighborhoods, already damaged by floods a few months later, and ones that would be damage again the following July. 

More often than not, though, the pre-Christmas rush has been marked by intense cold and way too much snow and wind.

FRIGID CHRISTMAS HISTORY

According to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book, the worst example of this takes us way back to 1835.   The "high" temperature on December 16, 1835 was in the mid-teens below zero. Northwest gales that day probably plunged wind chills into the 40s or even 50s below zero.

Some other notable Christmas season cold snaps that will make this weekend's expected overnight lows near 0 seem like a walk on the beach at Key West:

1942: Early season record cold greeted Christmas shoppers on December 20. Lows included 23 below in Burlington, minus 29 in St. Johnsbury and 32 below in Newport. 

1955: Records still stand for the coldest for so early in the season in Burlington, where it was 22 below in December 21, minus 20 on December 22, and then "warmed" up to a balmy -18 on the 23rd. At least Christmas Day itself that year was warm, as temperatures rocketed up to 41 degrees.

1958: West Burke was below zero every day from December 8 to 27, with the temperature dropping to 29 below on the 11th and minus 30 on the 12th.  Of the 25 days leading up to Christmas that year in Burlington, lows on 21 days were in the single numbers above or below zero. 

1970: This was probably the harshest pre-Christmas on record if you combine low temperatures and extreme snowfall. Repeated snowstorms with intense cold started on December 4 that year.  By Christmas Day, there was 32 inches of snow on the ground in Burlington. 

Since we're talking about pre-Christmas weather, December 22, 1970 stands out. Heavy snow, strong winds and subzero cold all combined to put the kibosh on pretty much every holiday party planned that day. Temperatures stayed below zero all day in most of Vermont amid heavy snowfall and gale force winds. Blizzards, especially those that cold, are no fun.

Montpelier had 31 inches of new snow between Dec. 17-24, 1970 bringing the depth of snow on the ground to 43 inches on Christmas Day. Temperatures were as low as 21 below in Montpelier a low of minus 21 and a high of 2 above with 5 inches of snow that 

1989: This was l the coldest December on record in Burlington. Fourteen days between the first of the month and Christmas got below zero in Burlington. In Montpelier, not one day that December got above freezing until the 31st, and 24 days got below zero.

WARM RECENT DECEMBERS

Recent years have mostly been just the opposite of this frigid pre-Christmas and Christmas history in Vermont. 

On Christmas Eve, 2015, for instance, the temperature reached 68 degrees in Burlington, which is the warmest December on record. It was a balmy 70 in Rutland that day.  

Fresh green daffodil shoots pop up Christmas morning,
2020 amid record warmth in the 60s.

On Christmas morning 2020, it was 65 degrees in Burlington for a new record high.

  At 8 a.m. EST that Christmas morning, the Lower 48's warmest U.S. weather station was, of all places, Highgate, Vermont, on the Canadian border with a temperature of 65 degrees.   At that hour, it was 54 in Miami and 49 in Phoenix. 

December 16 and 17, 2021 both reached 60 degrees in Burlington.  

This coming weekend, we in Vermont are expecting the sharpest pre-Christmas cold snap since at least 2019.  Which actually isn't saying much, given the warm Decembers of the past decade.

High temperatures this weekend and the start of next week will probably only make it into the teens to around 20, with lows of 0 to 10 below, even chillier than that in the colder mountain valleys.  

That kind of weather would have almost felt like a warm spell during many of the frigid Decembers back in the 1950s, 60s and 70s.

And true to modern form, after the cold snap this weekend, it seems likely Vermont temperatures will likely soar to well above normal levels as we head into Christmas next week. 

Gusty Winds Northern VT/NY Tonight, Tomorrow, Hang On To Those Christmas Decorations

Wind gusts to near 50 mph slammed this dead tree
down on a garden in St. Albans last spring. We 
might see similar scenes here and there Tuesday
as gusts to 50 mph might tear down a few weakened
and vulnerable trees and branches. 

Two rounds of expected strong gusts, one overnight tonight, another during the day Tuesday have prompted some wind advisories in northern Vermont and New York

Those advisories go into effect at 9 this evening for Franklin, Grand Isle and Orleans counties in far northern Vermont, and for most of Adirondacks and the counties bordering Canada east of Massena. 

Winds could gust in this region up to 50 mph, which could drop a few trees, branches and power lines.

The two rounds will strike two different areas.

The first blast of wind, mostly in the few hours before and after midnight, will focus mostly on the northern Champlain Valley and northern Adirondacks.

After a bit of an early morning lull, the winds will pick up again, this time focusing on the eastern Adirondacks and the eastern slopes of the northern Green Mountain. 

The forecast wind speeds won't be all that odd for winter, but with everybody's Christmas decorations up, it's worth it to be wary.  Make sure all that Christmas stuff is fastened, attached and otherwise secure before the wind really hit.

Decorations blowing around can hit other objects, like houses, cars and power lines, adding to the damage.

Before the winds arrive, areas of freezing drizzle and light freezing rain are possible this evening in Vermont along and east of the Green Mountains.   We could see some icy roads in spots before temperatures start to rise late tonight. 

A winter weather advisory is up for adjacent New Hampshire this evening because of that freezing drizzle risk. 

Rain will arrive later, then end quickly Tuesday morning. The winds will tend to diminish in the afternoon.

No rest for the weary with weather systems, though. Snow and rain look like they'll want to arrive Wednesday night.  We'll see updates on expected amounts of snow tomorrow, but it looks like the Champlain Valley will once again see little snow while the mountains pile it up.

It's also now looking like this coming weekend will be quite cold - even chillier than the temperatures we had over the weekend. 

Current Congressional Government Shutdown Threat/FEMA Fight Is Small Hint Of Discord We'll See In Trump Administration

Congress has until Friday to pass a continuing 
resolution, and hopefully fund FEMA disaster
relief, though neither is a sure bet. 

The U.S. Senate plans to adjourn December 20, and there's a last ditch effort to pass some badly needed disaster relief money for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA.  

That FEMA money would hopefully one part of a continuing spending resolution must pass or there will be a government shut down.  Yeah, Congress is kicking the can down the road again instead of just doing the budget like they're supposed to.

FEMA funding is emerging as a major sticking point. 

As NewsNation reports:

"While there is broad bipartisan support for disaster relief, some Republicans have raised concerns with the size and scope of the White House's request, particular proposed fund in areas like the Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency."

Against that backdrop,  Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vermont is pushing for giving FEMA at least $98 billion in emergency funding to cope with a slew of big U.S. disasters in recent months. As we well know, some of those disasters have occurred in Vermont. 

Welch said Congress hasn't passed comprehensive disaster aid since 2022 and the need is piling up. 

"The longer we wait to help disaster victims, the more disaster victims we will have. The list of needs will only grow Delay hurts, it doesn't help. That's why I am asking my colleagues in the Senate and the House to act now and act quickly. 

For Vermont, and for every state hit by a disaster since we passed a disaster bill so many storms ago....We cannot wait. We have common ground in our common crisis. We must send a disaster bill to President Biden's desk," Welch said. 

FEMA funding is more important than ever because, as Welch just told us, those disasters are piling up. More and more people live in places with dangerous weather, and climate change continues to make those disasters worse than they otherwise would be. And they're expanding in scope.

In the short term, between now and December 20, the biggest obstacle to potential FEMA funding is the so-called Freedom Caucus, 

The caucus would only support disaster funding if money is taken out of the budget somewhere else. In a statement last week, members of the Freedom Caucus said. "The House should consider only what is absolutely necessary right now to prove critical relief to hurricane victims and farmers, and pay for it with offsets from wasteful spending elsewhere in the government, then wait for President Trump to take office to better manage disaster relief."

As of Saturday, at least some observers seemed optimistic some disaster aid will be approved in a stopgap measure, even if it's not the $98 billion the Biden administration - and Sen. Welch - want.

No matter what happens with Congress and FEMA funding this week, the problem is going to keep getting worse.  Like it or not, the federal government is going to have to fund more and more money for disaster relief in the coming decade. 

Even though Donald Trump, about to enter the White House doesn't want to spend money on things like that. 

The Trump and MAGA people seem intent on making life as hard as possible for most working class people, including disaster victims.  I think disaster aid will be severely curtailed during the Trump administration, even as those disasters will almost surely keep piling up.

 If Trump and his minions have their way, disaster victims will be on their own more than ever.  Eventually, there will be a lot of angry people out there.  Before I go on, I'll make things clear that I don't want anybody to threaten violence or actually cause it. 

But you saw the visceral anger in the past couple weeks at the murderous and dystopian U.S. health care industry after the murder of the United Health CEO. 

If the new administration dares screw over disaster and climate victims over the next four years, it could get ugly. Even some of Trump's biggest fans will turn on him, though I admit his most rabid followers will make excuses for him.

The inevitable upcoming disasters and a lack of response to them will sow even more discord in the U.S., as if we don't have enough already.   

Vermont Weather Week Ahead: So Far, No Hard Core Winter

A large hawk took advantage of clear skies and good
hunting weather Saturday to perch on a tree in my 
back yard to help rid my property of moles, voles and mice.

 I'm not saying this entire winter will be an easy one here in Vermont, at least when it comes to the weather, but it's certainly off to a simple start.  

The biggest "crisis" so far was the flood threat we had this past Wednesday and Thursday, but that turned out to be no big deal at all. 

We've had snow and ice and wind and rain, of course, but knock on wood, nothing scary. 

The weather has been easy so far this month, compared to many early winters in Vermont, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Sure, we'll have complications with the weather this upcoming week, but nothing terrible.

We can start with this morning, which was the coldest so far this early winter season. That's not saying much. It got down to 13 this morning in Burlington. That's a "mere" 25 degrees warmer than the record low for the date, so we're not exactly dying here. 

A few places that have some snow cover in northern and eastern Vermont did make it just below zero, but again, that's no great shakes for mid-December.

UPCOMING WEEK

We have a few sort of storms coming up this week, but none of them look super big.

The first will make a run at us tonight and tomorrow, but it will fall apart because it's running into that high pressure system that gave us the near-record high air pressures yesterday. Burlington peaked at 1048.8 millibars or 30.97 inches. So it was up there.

Sun will fade behind clouds today. Tonight's "storm," such as it is, will probably throw a few snowflakes at us in northern Vermont, maybe, and deposit a dusting south through early Monday morning. 

A stronger, warmer storm arrives Monday night with - sorry, winter sports fans - rain.  It won't rain all that hard, and the way the storm is oriented, the Champlain Valley will probably only manage a tenth of an inch of rain if that. Other spots in Vermont should see only a quarter inch of rain, give or take. Obviously, no need to worry about any flooding at all. 

You will notice some gusty winds, especially in the Champlain Valley, but again, nothing too frightening.

After that, we're going to keep getting sprayed with small storms. The further out we look the harder it is to tell you what kind of storm, exactly when they'll  hit and what will fall from the sky.  Temperatures will start to trend cooler starting later Wednesday and into next weekend, so chances increase that anything we do get will be snow. 

Something small looks like it wants to come through later Wednesday with a little snow or rain. Another small packet of light snow seems possible next Saturday, at least if current forecasts hold.

CHRISTMAS QUESTIONS

Since next weekend is right before Christmas, we start to look at travel weather, and also the question of who, if anyone in Vermont gets a traditional White Christmas. 

Bottom line on those question is it's too soon to tell.

Click-baiting weather geeks on social media keep bleating about some sort of Big East Coast Snowstorm ™ around Christmas, but there's no way you can definitively say that.  There's dozens upon dozens of weather models that depict long range forecasts.

These click baiters cherry pick one or two of the models that go nuts about a big snowstorm while ignoring the dozens of computer models that yawn and give us no particular noteworthy weather for the holiday. 

Here's what we actually know, and it isn't much, at least not yet:

There seems to be signals that there might be some sort of storminess in or near New England somewhere around Christmas Day.  But that's not 100 percent certain.  If that storm does form, we don't know when it will hit, how strong it might be, whether it will be snow or rain or a mix. 

We don't even know whether those somewhat colder temperatures we're expecting next weekend will stick around for a few more days and linger into Christmas.

If you're that interested in whether we'll see a storm on or around Christmas, you're going to have to wait until just a few days before Santa actually arrives.  I, of course, will keep you posted.  

San Francisco A New Tornado Alley. At Least On Saturday

Storm damage in San Francisco Saturday, after
the city had its first-ever tornado warning.
Meteorologists are now investigating whether
a tornado actually touched down. Photo by
Richard Pena via Mission Local 

UPDATE, NOON SUNDAY

Judging from news from the National Weather Service office in the Bay Area, a tornado did not touch down in San Francisco. It looks like the damage was also caused by intense straight-line winds.

However, they did confirm that tornado in Scotts Valley, just north of Santa Cruz

It was an EF-1 with 90 mph winds. The tornado had a short path length, about a third of a mile. Local media reported six injuries, three of whom were hospitalized and one of those people was critically injured. 

Most of the injuries appear to be occupants of vehicles that were flipped over by the tornado or caught outdoors as pedestrians. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Even in December, I would never be all that surprised if a tornado hit somewhere in Oklahoma, or Alabama or Florida.  

But San Francisco?

The first-ever tornado warning that anyone's aware of was issued for San Francisco early this morning. 

As of early this evening, it's still not confirmed whether a tornado actually touched down in the city, but there is wind damage, and radar showed a classic tornado signature. 

The tornado warning was issued at 5:51 a.m. local time and expired about 25 minutes later. 

There's quite a bit of tree damage in Golden Gate Park, where some of the strongest rotation was detected on radar.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service office in Monterey, which covers San Francisco, plan to investigate the park and perhaps other sections of the city to determine whether it was a tornado or straight line winds that caused the damage. 

Winds reportedly gusted to 83 mph during the storm at San Francisco Airport.

Radar images Saturday morning  also indicated debris being lifted into the air and strong rotation in Davenport, California.  Davenport is along the California coast about 60 miles south of San Francisco.

Video showed either the same apparent tornado or a different one in Scotts Valley, California, about a dozen miles east of Davenport and just north of Santa Cruz, California. 

Although tornadoes have occurred near San Francisco in the past, none are known to have actually passed through the city. 

The possible tornadoes were part of a strong storm that slammed into northern California last night and today. A constellation of flood and coastal flood alerts, wind advisories and winter storm warnings were up for various parts of northern California.

A good two feet of snow was expected in parts of the Sierra Nevada range, and avalanches are likely in the back country.  Traffic was snarled Saturday in highways through the mountains.  

At this point, the storm that hit California today is not expected to become a major system as it crosses the United States 

 

Under Pressure: Near Record High Barometric Pressure In Vermont Today

Clear skies started this Saturday morning as barometric
pressure in Vermont approached near record highs for
December. Very high pressure almost always leads
to clear skies. 

 As of early this morning, Burlington's air pressure, corrected for sea level was 1047.8 millibars or 30.92 inches. 

That is wicked high and it's still rising. Today, we'll come within a whisker of breaking the record for highest December air pressure in Vermont on record. It'll all just short of the records set around Christmas, 1949.

As I mentioned in passing yesterday, this won't screw up your life.  Which is a good thing. There's enough high pressure trying to get ready for the holiday, without the atmosphere making it worse. 

To oversimplify, when the air pressure is high, you basically have a big pile of air sitting on top of you. Air is sinking under areas of high pressure, which is how you get those elevated pressures to start with.

CLEAR, COLD

Sinking air also tends to destroy clouds, so it's usually pretty clear under strong high pressure systems. That this one is hitting in December is great for those of you affected by seasonal affective disorder. 

The days this time of year are short to begin with.  It's also almost always overcast in Vermont during December. So a spell of sunshine is always welcome this time of year, even if it is rather chilly. 

If you're going to have near record high pressure, chances are it will happen in the winter.  Weather systems - be they storms or areas of high pressure - tend to be stronger in the cold seasons than in the summer. 

It's usually cold when the air pressure is super high in the winter. Sometimes super cold, if the high pressure came down from the Arctic  Cold air is dense, which increases air pressure.  

This time, and during the December record high pressure in 1949, the cold isn't extreme. The air did not come from the Arctic, but instead has some influence from the Pacific Ocean.

Today will only be slightly cooler than average. But strong high pressure encourages calm, clear nights.

Where it cleared up overnight in southern Vermont, temperatures at dawn today were in the single digits in places like Bennington and Springfield. Lingering clouds kept northern areas somewhat warmer.

Tonight will be by far the chilliest of the winter so far. Blame that strong high pressure.  The Banana Belt Champlain Valley should end up in the single numbers above zero.  The coldest hollows of the Adirondacks will be in the low teens below zero.  Much of Vermont will be near zero.

That's not extreme for this time of year, but it is much colder than we're used to.

EXTREME WEATHER

I've noticed the weather can often get pretty extreme before and especially after bouts of near record high pressure, but that doesn't seem to be the case this time. 

Sure, next week will be unsettled, but nothing wild for December.

In the 1949 high pressure, it was chilly during the peak of it, but record high temperatures preceded and followed the event. 

Near record high pressure hit on February 12-13, 1981,  and that brought seasonable cold temperatures. But right after that, Vermont had an extreme week long February heat wave, in which daily high temperatures were in the 50s to low 60s.

The wildest case of dramatic weather happening around the time of record high pressure was in 1920.  this happening might have been 1920.

The all-time record high pressure in Burlington, Vermont for any time of year was 31.12 inches on January 31, 1920.  This one came down from the Arctic, and it was bitterly cold. The high temperature that day in Burlington was minus 9 with a low of 28 below, still a tie for the third coldest reading on record in the city. 

Then came an incredibly temperature surge. Enosburg Falls went from 39 below on the morning of February 1, 1920 to 47 above on February 2, a jump of 86 degrees!

The current high pressure will move on to the east and weaken starting tomorrow, opening the door to some fairly unremarkable storm systems to give us bits of rain and snow occasionally next week. 

 

No Surprise, World And U.S. Had Near Record Warm November, World's Warmest Year In 2024 A Certainty

The world was seeing red again in November. NOAA
reports it was the second warmest on record and
typically of the past few years, it's hard to find
places that were on the cool side during the month. 

 We all knew November would calculate out to be a warm month for the world as a whole and  United States in particular, and it's just been confirmed. 

NOAA's  National Centers for Environmental Information released their monthly report Thursday, and tell us that for the nation as a whole,  the world's superheated trend continued in November.

THE WORLD

Just as in October, November turned out to be the world's second warmest month on record,  coming in a wee bit shy of the record set last year.  Both 2023 and 2024 were warmer than any previous November by a large margin.

In November, 2024, a little under 11 percent of world's surface had record heat, the largest in the database and even more than in 2023. 

As usual, the world was warm almost everywhere. NCEI said Asia had its warmest November on record while South America and Oceania were second warmest. 

Other areas that were particularly warm relative to average were the Arctic, the eastern half of North America, northern and southwestern Europe, Siberia, and northwestern and southern Africa. 

As has so often been the case in recent years, it was hard to find cold spots around the world in November. Parts of the western United States, central Africa, southern Greenland and Antarctica were just a smidge on the cool side. 

The amount of sea ice around the world was the second smallest for November in 46 years. There was about a million square miles less sea ice than the average over the 30 years ending in 2020.

Global tropical storm activity matched a record for November, with 13 named storms. Three of them were in the Atlantic Ocean, which makes November unusually busy there. One of the hurricanes, Rafael, peaked as a Category 3, again, weird for so late in the season. 

Year to date for 2024 is the hottest on record. Basically, the only way this year will end up cooler than last is if we have a civilization-ending meteor strike within the next couple of minutes: Spoiler:  That won't happen. 

UNITED STATES

November was warm across the eastern two thirds of the
United States and just meh in the western third.

November in the Lower 48 of the United States was the sixth warmest out of the past 130 years, says NCEI  The eastern half of the nation was warm, while the western half was near normal, more or less.

Maine, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana had their warmest November on record. The coolest state, relative to average, was Nevada, which had its 38th coolest November out of the past 130 years. 

According to NCEI, Vermont overall had its 11th warmest November in 130 years. As measured in Burlington, it was tied for 10th warmest, so at least everybody is consistent with each other. 

Reversing the very dry national trend we saw in October, November turned out to be the 17th wettest out of the past 130 years in the Lower 48. 

The Plains states, especially down toward Texas and Oklahoma were quite wet, as was northern California and Oregon. Oklahoma had its wettest November on record. Kansas came close, scoring #2 on the November wetness scoreboard. 

Dry areas included the drought-plagued Northeast, southern California, Arizona and Florida. 

Autumn, regarded by climatologists as the period from September 1 to November 30, was the nation's hottest on record. 

Year to date, the nation is still experiencing its hottest year on record.  Some areas are ridiculously on the warm side. An area stretching from Minnesota, through the Great Lakes and across northern New England are running a full five degrees warmer than average for the year so far. That's insane!

However, the United States might or might not mirror the world as a whole as making 2024 the hottest on record. 

As Yale Climate Connections explains:

".....2024 may fall short of the current record holder, 2012.  That year had the 20th warmest December in U.S. history, whereas this month to date has seen cold temperatures in the East roughly balancing warmth in the west, making the month near-average in temperature."

That said, extended forecasts entrench warm air across the western United States, and mixed signals toward the eastern part of the nation, though most long range forecasts trend towards a cool East for the rest of the month. 

We'll touch base on this in January to see how we did.