A Factory-Effect Snowstorm? Yeah, It Really Happened.

Radar imagery from Thanksgiving shows a 100-mile
long band of snow along Interstate 94 in Wisconsin
caused by, of all things,  factory.

Lake effect snowstorms are in the news this weekend. 

But here's an odd one: 

A factory-effect snowstorm shut down part of an Interstate highway in Wisconsin. That's right, a factory caused a snowstorm.

As the Washington Post describes it, a glass factory near Menomonie Wisconsin spewed steam and a few particles into the air on Thanksgiving, like it pretty much always does.

It was a dull Wisconsin morning, cold, damp, with a low overcast. Temperatures were in the 20s, and it was much colder than that a few thousand feet up.

The low stratus deck consisted of zillions of supercooled water droplets. 

Supercooled water droplets are at a temperature below freezing, but are still liquid. Those supercooled droplets will freeze if something hits them, like particles in the air or ice crystals.

The steam belching from the glass factory did the trick. As soon as the emissions hit that supercooled low overcast, the droplets froze and changed into snowflakes. Which fell out of the sky. In droves.

It was obviously only a very narrow band, as just one set of factory smokestacks can do so much. But the snow band pretty much paralleled Interstate 94 win Wisconsin for up to 100 miles. 

Hard to see due to thick snow falling, but traffic tie
ups on Interstate 94 in Wisconsin Thursday caused
by a weird factory-effect snowstorm. 

The variable visibility and slick pavement created by the snow caused some crashes which temporarily closed part of the Interstate.  There were reports of 16 crashes within five hours, including a six-car pileup. 

Snowfall amounts were fairly modest, as again, a factory isn't a lake and doesn't have the power to produce feet of snow like Lakes Erie and Ontario can in western New York. 

Still a good three inches of snow fell along some of the path of this factory-effect snow, so that's pretty impressive. 

This isn't the first time something like this happened but it's one of the more impressive. Emissions from power plants and even steam from relatively small rivers can create snow. Sometimes, it doesn't take much to make it snow. 

 

National Weather Service Burlington Had Amazingly Accurate Vermont Snow Forecast

Here's the forecast snow map issued by the 
National Weather Service office in South Burlington
Thursday morning...

 The final numbers are pretty much all in from Vermonts nice Thanksgiving snowfall, and it's time to assess the forecasters.  

Namely, the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

For this event, they get a very solid A, with bonus points for winning a tricky forecast. 

First map you see on this post is snowfall they were predicting as of early Thursday morning. The second map shows what actually happened.

As you can see, they're pretty much the same map. The National Weather Service nailed where the heaviest snow would fall, and where it would be lightest.

 They got exactly right the northward extent of the heaviest snow, and which parts of the state got pretty much nothing. 

The only thing "wrong" is in the areas that received the heaviest snowfall. The National Weather Service underestimated some of the highest totals in southern and eastern Vermont.  We seem to have a pattern of storms.

And this is the map showing actual snow totals from
Thursday. The two maps are practically the same.

Snowstorms when the temperature is close to the freezing point are notoriously hard to predict. Predicted temperatures on any given day are very often a couple degrees off from what actually happens. 

If you forecast rain and 50 degrees and it ends up being 53 degrees during the rainfall, people really aren't going to notice the difference. 

But if you think a spot is going to hover at 35 degrees with rain, and it ends up being 32 degrees with several inches of snow, that comes off as a real forecast bust.

So not only did the National Weather Service have to figure out where the heaviest precipitation would set up - which is a big trick in and of itself -  they had to determine how temperatures would behave at all the different elevations Vermont has.

Kudos to NWS Burlington. They've gotten the winter forecasting season off to a rousing start.

Epic Lake Effect Snows Are Now Beginning To Blast Parts Of New York State

Forecasts call for up to five feet of lake effect snow
near Watertown, New York and four feet south of
Buffalo by Monday. 

 Areas around the Great Lakes - especially in New York - are gearing up for an epic lake effect snowstorm. 

Between now and Monday, and probably beyond that, feet of snow will fall east of Lake Ontario, and off of Lake Erie south of Buffalo.

An area near Watertown, New York was forecast to receive more than five feet of snow between this morning and Monday morning. Towns south of Buffalo, New York can expect close to four feet of snow.

The lake effect squalls are expected to be intense enough so that the blizzard conditions would be punctuated by thunder and lightning at times.

Sunday's NFL Buffalo Bills home game could be interesting. The stadium is 10 miles south of Buffalo, right on the edge of where the heaviest lake squalls will set up. So it will either be OK, or a blizzard during the game. 

Other big lake effect snowfalls are happening along the southern shores of Lake Superior, in parts of Michigan, in southern Ontario and northern Ohio.

The New York squalls are powerful enough so that their remnants have started making it into Vermont this evening and should continue to do so through the weekend. That means a few flurries in the valleys, but perhaps a few inches of snow in some of the Green Mountains. 

The most accumulation will probably be near Jay Peak, which is great because that mountain received less snow Thursday than did resorts in central and southern Vermont. Kinda evens things up a little.

The ingredients in place are perfect for these enormous lake effect storms.

An oddly toasty autumn left Lakes Erie and Ontario much warmer than normal.  Now, cold winds are blowing across the lakes and will continue to do so for days. 

The bigger the temperature contrast between the lake water temperature and the air the more powerful the lake effect snows become.  The upcoming long stretch of weather with those persistent chilly westerly and northwesterly winds means a lot of snow can pile up in some spots. 

This won't be the biggest lake effect snow storm ever, but it really is a humdinger. 

The worst of course, was in December, 2022. Buffalo endured 37 hours of continuous blizzard conditions with winds as high as 72 mph.  The blizzard's onslaught came on suddenly, trapping people outdoors and in cars.  Some 41 people died from the storm's effects in and around Buffalo. A total of 52 inches of snow buried the city.

In mid-November, 2014, an intense lake effect snow dumped up to seven feet of snow on towns south of Buffalo, causing numerous roof collapses, and blocking roads to the point where gas and groceries were in short supply. That storm claimed 11 lives.

It's possible climate change is making some of these Great Lakes effect snowfall worse. The lakes stay warmer and more ice free than they used to in the late autumn and early winter. That contrast I mentioned between the unusually warm waters and cold winter air can make the storms more intense. 

Vermont Storm Over, High Elevation Snow Impresses, Lake Effect Leftovers To Add Bit More

Less than an inch of snow at my place in St. Albans,
Vermont, but still wintertime pretty after yesterday's
storm that dumped heavier amounts elsewhere in
the Green Mountain State. 

 The just departed snowstorm in Vermont turned out to be pretty impressive in the high elevations - and a yawner in some of the low spots. 

Totals I've seen so far are 17 inches in Mount Holly, 14 inches in Barnard and Ludlow; 12 inches in Plymouth and West Windsor and 11 inches in West Topsham.

Reports out of West Rutland show just how different higher elevations are from the valleys. A full 10 inches of new snow was measured at a 1,700-foot elevation on a hill above town. 

Then, judging from a convenient traffic camera on the valley floor in West Rutland (where most of the people in town live), it looks like there's only a couple inches of new snow. 

The Champlain Valley was rainy through most of the storm, with just a touch of snow at the end. Burlington reported no measurable snow - just a trace. If no measurable snow falls in Burlington today and tomorrow, this November will tie with five others as the least snowy on record with that trace total.

At my 620-foot elevation in St. Albans, a spot that's a wee bit colder because I'm away from the lake and a little higher, I managed just 0.6 inches. 

Roads in Vermont early this morning were still slick in some areas. Temperatures dipped below freezing in most spots, so any water and slush  left on roads froze. Take it easy heading into town for work or Christmas shopping this morning.

Or better yet, wait until later this morning when most of the roads should be just fine. Still, traffic cameras as of 7:30 a.m. show vast improvements over how things were on the highways during the storm. 

Power outages are still a problem in some areas. The heavy, wet snow brought down power lines and branches throughout the southeastern half of Vermont. 

The outages peaked at around 7:30 p.m. last evening, with roughly 9,400 Vermont homes and businesses without power. As of 6:30 a.m. today, that number had fallen to about 2,500.

This was also easily Vermont's wettest storm since at least late October, so the moisture it's providing will put a little dent in the drought. At least I hope.

Burlington has a solid 0.55 inches of precipitation, almost all rain. Bennington had 0.66 inches of rain and melted snow, so that's not bad. Springfield had a very nice inch of rain and melted snow.

So, with all the inconvenience it caused on the roads and such, this was a perfect early winter storm for Vermont.

The snow focused itself on mountains and ski resorts.  but at least partially spared valleys. That'll make cleanup easier for us valley dwellers, while the resorts can busy themselves grooming trails and giving their cash registers a nice early season workout. 

Even better, there's some ferocious lake effect snows gathering near Lakes Erie and Ontario in western New York (the subject of a separate post soon). The remnants of those lake effect storms will make their way to the Green Mountains over the next two or three days, starting this afternoon.

That means a few ski resorts might get a couple or a few inches of additional snow, while nothing more than light snow and scattered snow showers hit the valleys. 

A long spell of colder than average air is coming in for an extended stay as well, meaning most of whatever snow is on the ground-  especially in mid and high elevations - will stick around. 

Late Thanksgiving Afternoon Storm Update: Snow Playing Out Just As Expected, Tough Evening Travel

Traffic cam late this afternoon along Interstate 89 in
Brookfield. Looks like they were dealing with some kind 
of slide off there. 

 Today's snowstorm has behaved pretty much as expected, as central and southern Vermont has had a decent amount of wet snow. 

The low Champlain Valley has so far entirely escaped the storm, with a cold rain, occasionally mixing with a few wet snowflakes the name of the game all day today.   

At my 600 foot elevation in St. Albans, it rained all day, with wet snowflakes frequently mixing in and not accumulating. Further up the hill along my road, at about 900 feet of elevation, there was about an inch of snow on the ground as of 3:30 p.m. 

As of 4 p.m. snow totals include 10 inches in South Woodstock, 9 inches in Chester, 7.5 inches in Mount Holly and 7 inches in Bridgewater. 

Some of the heaviest snow bands with this storm were just setting up across parts of southern and south-central Vermont as of late afternoon, so several more inches will fall in that neck of the woods. Some mountain and favored relatively high elevation towns in the southeastern half of Vermont could easily reach a foot of new snow by the time this ends late tonight.  

Southern and central Vermont ski areas are rejoicing. Northern ski areas are getting so some snow too, so anything helps.

Northern Vermont so far features 4 inches in Stowe and 2 inches in Montpelier. 

A runner, possibly trying to counteract a Thanksgiving
Day feast, braves a mix of rain and snow for an
afternoon jog in Fairfax this afternoon.

Roads conditions are to nobody's surprise pretty bad where it's snowing, which is most of Vermont. I wouldn't go anywhere this evening, really. If you have to leave grandmother's house after the Thanksgiving feast, head out tomorrow morning when this will all be over. 

Just as I was getting ready to file this blog update, I noticed rain was rapidly changing to snow in the lowest elevations of Addison and Rutland counties, and in the Champlain Valley. 

As temperatures drop this evening, rain should continue changing to snow. I don't imagine we'll see much accumulation the the valley - maybe an inch - but as temperatures fall below freezing, it'll form ice on  many untreated surfaces. 

Power outages - also as expected - are mounting in Vermont. As of 4:30 p.m. about 4,400 homes and businesses had no electricity. Almost all the outages were over and east of the Gre en Mountains in the southern half of the state.

The snow should slowly end from west to east between 7 and 11 or so tonight. Eastern Vermont remains under a winter storm warning until 7 a.m. Friday because roads will remain treacherous and scary overnight in spots.

The next few days starting tomorrow should be on the cold, bland side, with a little sun mixed with a lot of clouds, with snow showers from time to time. The remnants of some pretty intense lake effect snows will occasionally hit parts of the Green Mountains, dumping snow showers that would accumulate daily on at least some ski slopes from time to time. 

Thanksgiving Snowstorm Is Here And Ramping Up; Snow Accumulation Forecast Up Again

Update snowfall forecast map from the National 
Weather Service office in South Burlington. Click
on it to make it bigger and easier to see. Compared
to earlier forecast, the areas expected more 
than six inches snow (yellow and orange) have
greatly expanded in the past 24 hours. 
Pretty much all of Vermont except maybe the
immediate shores of Lake Champlain are now
expecting accumulation. 

 Our big Thankgiving snowstorm is here, and will be ramping up through the day. 

Updated forecasts continue to increase total snow amounts, and expand the areas that will receive a decent amount of snow. That's especially true here in Vermont. 

The winter storm warnings extend through much of central and eastern New York, much of Vermont (details to follow), most of New Hampshire and all but coastal Maine. 

This will easily be the biggest Thanksgiving snowstorm for many of us since 1971.

If you're reading this Thanksgiving morning, things might not seem to intense yet, but it will ramp keep ramping up into this afternoon. 

I don't recommend travel through northern New York and the northern half of New England through today and into this evening. Not getting along with the family and want to leave? Well, buckle up, buttercup, you're stuck with them for the day. 

 If you live in areas where the snow is likely to be heaviest, charge your devices this morning. You might lose electricity.

MORNING SETUP AND CHANGES

Snow and rain had overspread most of Vermont as of 8 a.m. but was falling lightly and has yet to cause many problems. Warmer valleys are having a cold rain, as expected, but you don't have to go up much in elevation to hit snow. 

Conditions were already starting to go down hill. As of 8 a.m., traffic cameras were showing Interstates 89 and 91 and state highways were already starting to get snow covered in areas outside the Champlain Valley and lowest elevations in southwest Vermont.

Here are some changes to the forecast that hint at perhaps a bigger storm that we were thinking a couple days ago:

Traffic cam image from Route 9 in Searsburg, 
Vermont shows treacherous conditions already
at 9 a.m.  Roads statewide will continue to
get worse through the day. 

1. The storm has a boatload of moisture, more than first anticipated. That would increase the amount of precipitation and snowfall accumulations. 

It would also bump more snow northwestward in Vermont than first thought. So this snow will cover more real estate than the earlier thinking.

2. The heavier precipitation means that it will cool the atmosphere a little more efficiently. 

 That means some places like the Champlain Valley - especially away from the immediate lake shore - will have some accumulating snow after all. Not as much as the rest of the state, but we're looking at a whiter look.  

As things started, I found it interesting that it was already snowing in low elevation downtown Brattleboro. Traffic cams along Route 4 in low elevation West Rutland showed rain at 8 a.m. but a flip to snow by 9 a.m. It was still rain in Burlington and St. Albans, and we'll see how that goes through the day. It could change to snow earlier than forecast??

The Warnings, Alerts And Accumulations

The winter storm warning has been expanded in Vermont to cover a good chunk of the Northeast Kingdom. Most of the eastern half of Vermont is now under the warning and can expect four to nine inches of new snow, with higher amounts in the mountains and in southern parts of the state. 

Some high elevations in southern and central Vermont could get a foot of snow out of this. The areas in this zone that are now expected to get more than six inches of snow has roughly doubled since yesterday's forecasts.  

A classic bridges freeze before road scenario at 9:15
this morning at Interstate 89 exit 10 in Waterbury,
Vermont. Most of the roadway is a little slushy,
but note the thicker snow and ice on the exit ramp bridge.

The winter weather advisory north and west of the winter storm zone was expanded to Franklin County. So now only Grand Isle County in Vermont is not under any weather alerts. 

There might  not be much snow in the northern Champlain Valley with expected accumulations of one to four inches. But given it's Thankgiving and the first true wintry spell of the season, the National Weather Service office in Burlington figures it's worth the precautions.

What To Expect/What To Do

The storm will peak this afternoon, with snowfall rates in southern Vermont probably hitting more than one inch per hour at times. That's too fast to keep up with the snow plowing, so travel will be abysmal. 

This will be a wet snow, which tends to compact into ice under the pressure from tires in traffic. So it won't be just snow on the roads. I expect local road closures at times, especially in hilly areas, due to stuck cars and trucks, slide offs, and trees and branches falling onto road ways. 

In northwestern Vermont, the snow won't be as heavy, and will come later. It might trick you a bit. You might notice roads aren't so bad at midafternoon and you'll head out, only to see the pavement get covered up with  snow and black ice pretty quickly as temperatures fall later today. 

I'm not sure of the timing of when snow will hit in the Champlain Valley. That area is a wild card with this storm, and probably the hardest area to forecast with this storm. If the atmosphere cools just a degree or two more than expected late this morning, there could be more snow there than forecast. On the other hand, a degree or two warmer than expected, and we revert to just mostly rain. 

Power outages unfortunately look inevitable this afternoon and evening in the heavy snow areas. This stuff is wet cement type schmutz, which will click to trees and power lines and knock some of them down. Unfortunate timing, since a power outage would certainly screw up a turkey feast.

As of 9 a.m., there was already one small power outage, affecting 37 homes in high elevation Stamford, on the Massachusetts border. By this afternoon, hundreds or even thousands of homes and businesses could be without electricity. 

I also want to give a huge shout out here to the road crews who will will be struggling to clear the roads and the utility workers who will be restoring power. Instead of spending time with their families this holiday, they will be toiling away in miserable weather to keep you safe. 

The storm will wind down during the first half of tonight, but iffy, icy roads will linger as temperatures drop. I'd wait until tomorrow to get in the car and drive anywhere.

And watch it while shoveling the snow. This is heart attack stuff. Get your strapping teenage boys and athletic teenage girls in your families to shovel the driveway. Your family and local emergency room will thank you.  

Storm Benefits

Yeah, I get it, the storm was inconveniently timed for some of us and the road conditions are a pain. But this storm is giving Vermont a huge benefit, too.

The unofficial start to the ski season is Thanksgiving weekend, and our resorts have been dealing with a lack of snow and often weather that's too warm for making snow. 

This one storm fixes a lot of those problems. The storm is laying down a nice base, which will stick around for awhile since it's supposed to stay cold for days or weeks after this storm. The publicity this snowstorm is giving ski areas is probably better than a $1 million ad campaign. Day trippers will probably be talked into coming to northern New England to enjoy the best Thanksgiving week conditions in years. 

This story is also timed beautifully just ahead of a big World Cup skiing event at Killington, set to start tomorrow. 

This storm is also very wet, and is focusing its fury on the part of Vermont worst affected by this autumn's drought, which by the way continues full force as of earlier this week. Much of southern Vermont will get the equivalent of an inch or more of rain out of this storm. Some of this moisture will immediately soak into the ground, while more will do so when the snow eventually melts. 

This snowstorm won't erase the drought, but it will put a needed dent into it. 

So, there's definitely bright sides to this storm, so enjoy!

 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Thanksgiving Storm Update: Getting A Little More Intense?

Wednesday evening snow prediction map. Projected
amounts have gone up some, but the high elevations
of southern and central Vermont are in the sweet spot
for heaviest snow. Looks like everyone in Vermont
will get at least a little, though. 

 A few changes to the forecast came up this afternoon that could make the long-hyped Thanksgiving storm a little wilder in at least parts of Vermont than first thought. 

The forecast track of the storm nudged just slightly northward compared to this morning's forecast. 

That could well put a band of especially heavy snow into parts of southern and central Vermont for a few hours Thursday afternoon.

The slight adjustment to the forecast would also put central Vermont ski areas in play for several inches of snow. And unlike this morning's predictions, the Champlain Valley now looks like it will get a little snow. Not much, but a little. 

The bottom line is depending on which part of Vermont you're in, the storm you experience will be far different than if you a Vermonter in another part of the state.

Details: 

The sweet spot still looks like the high elevations of southern Vermont.  There, heavy, wet snow will accumulate quickly, especially during the afternoon. 

That means roads in that part of the state could become nearly impassable at times. Power outages look like a good bet, and some back roads might be blocked by snow, and fallen branches and trees.

Meanwhile, people in nearby low elevations like Bennington and Brattleboro might wonder what all the fuss is about. 

The mid and high elevation heavy snow, or at least heavy-ish, now looks like it will extend to central Vermont. Yay! Sugarbush and Mad River Glen!

A classic November landscape in St. Albans on Wednesday
with shafts of sun and dark clouds mingling with
stick season. By tomorrow afternoon and evening, virtually
all of Vermont will have some snow on the ground,
and parts of central and southern Vermont will have a lot.

This storm has a boatload of moisture with it, so that's one reason for the heavy snow potential. It's also a quick mover, so this will be in an out quickly.

 Which is why the forecasts don't really call for one of those 20 inch blockbusters. But a foot of snow in some spot is not out of the question.

Things will go downhill in the morning, and start to clear up a few hours after dark Thanksgiving night. 

For the record, a winter storm warning is up for the two southernmost counties Vermont, east of Route 7 in Rutland County, east of Route 116 in Addison County, along with all of Windsor, Orange and Washington counties. 

Places under the winter storm warning can expect four to nine inches of snow, except locally more in higher elevations. Especially at places like Okemo and Mount Snow. 

A winter weather advisory is up for the rest of Vermont except Franklin and Grand Isle counties, where no particular alerts are up. The advisory zone should get one to four inches of new snow.

The Champlain Valley still looks like it'll have a lot of rain mixed in, but there should be a complete changeover to some snow in the later afternoon or evening. So many areas there will see their first accumulations of the season. Though it won't be spectacular.

Bottom Line

Expect highly variable travel conditions in Vermont all day Thanksgiving, but it will be mostly bad on the roads.  The higher you go up in elevation, the worse it will get. At times in central and southern Vermont, the snow will accumulate too quickly for road crews to really get on top  of it. 

The storm will probably peak from late morning to late afternoon or early evening. 

If you don't have to travel Thanksgiving day, don't. If you want to get to your Thanksgiving destination safely, try to get there by 7 a.m. tomorrow. 

If you want to leave, consider waiting until Friday morning to do so. By then, the storm will be out of our hair, and road crews will have had a chance to clean everything up. 

Power outages are most likely in mid and high elevations of southern and central Vermont and are most likely in the afternoon. 

For many in Vermont, this will be the biggest Thanksgiving snowstorm since the granddaddy of big humdinger Thanksgiving snows back in 1971. 

 

Storm Bert Departs, Leaves UK Destruction Behind

Damage in England after severe flooding from Storm 
Bert. Photo from Northampton Chronicle.

One of the two "bomb cyclones" I mentioned in an entry I posted here this past Saturday was Storm Bert in the UK, that I said was a dangerous storm.  

You bet it was. 

Storm Bert focused much of its fury on central England and Wales, where several communities were inundated by flood waters. Five deaths have been reported with this storm.  

A flood wall collapsed in TenburyWells (see videos below) sending a surge of water through town. 

Later,  a 57 year old man proved that weather-related stupidity is not just a creature of the United States. This idiot blasted through the flooded town on a large farm tractor through floodwaters, causing a huge wake and waves that damaged shops far beyond just what the existing flooding would have done. 

The man was later arrested. 

Storm Bert flooded a large mobile home park, affecting 114 families. It was the third time the neighborhood had been flooded within a year.

Parts of Wales also suffered debris flows from what are known as coal tips. Those are big piles of waste material from coal mining. These piles have sat largely abandoned after the coal industry collapsed decades ago. 

Some of the flooding extended into Northern Ireland, where some towns were flooded over the weekend. 

Flood warnings remain in effect in parts of England and Wales. New rains are due in the coming several days, but they are not forecast to be as intense as those that hit with Storm Bert.

 Video shows the moment when flood defenses failed and a gush of  floodwater surged through the small town of Tenbury Wells in Worcestershire. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Video of people bailing water, being evacuated and a dog being rescued as water rises in a Welsh town after Storm Bert. Again, click on this link or if you see the image below, click on that:

And here's the idiot I mentioned above who blundered through a flooded town with a tractor, causing a lot of added damage. The driver has since been arrested.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

As Of Wednesday Morning, Everything You Need To Know About New England Thanksgiving Snow

Latest snow accumulation forecast map for our
anticipated Thanksgiving storm. The sweet spot
for heaviest snow looks to be the higher 
elevations of southern Vermont, and a good'
chunk of New Hampshire. 

 Now that we're 24 hours away from our expected Thanksgiving snows, winter storm watches are now up for central New York, central and southern Vermont, much of New Hampshire and southern Maine. 

Basically, our long-hyped Thanksgiving storm will feature in a nice snow hit in central New England. Points further south will see rain, and points further north won't see anything heavy. 

Our storm will be a day long affair, so there won't be a particular time on Thanksgiving Day where it is completely "safe" on the roads to avoid the snow. 

Today: If you want to get to your Thanksgiving destination, today is the perfect day to do it, as there will be no weather issues to speak of. A few light rain and snow showers were departing early today, and we'll have some partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

Roads were fine this morning, and will stay that way all day. Traffic might be heavy in spots, but oh well. Weather related flight delays in and out of the airport in Burlington shouldn't be a big problem either. But it's an extremely heavy air travel day, so problems are inevitable. Check before you leave home whether your flight is still on schedule, and if it is, get to the airport early. 

Thanksgiving: Our storm is taking a perfect path to dump a substantial amount of snow on the southern half of Vermont and a good chunk of New Hampshire. With a caveat I'll get into in a sec.

Before we get any further, do note, that there is still a little disagreement among forecasts as to just how heavy the snow will get and exactly where the heaviest stuff will set up. What follows is how things look as of Wednesday morning. 

The storm should be about over New York City at the start of the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade tomorrow morning, making for a soggy, rainy event. The storm will then trek northeastward to a spot a little south and east of Boston in the afternoon. 

In this type of storm, the heaviest snow usually sets up 50 to 100 miles north an west of its center. Which puts southern Vermont in the crosshairs.   

The winter storm watch currently covers Vermont south of a line from roughly Middlebury to St. Johnsbury.  Western and central New Hampshire is also now under a winter storm watch. 

Southern Vermont

It looks like southern and central Vermont ski areas from about Killington south are in the sweet spot, and they should see a good six inches of snow at least. We might even see isolated instances of a foot of snow if things work out right. 

Here's the caveat I mentioned: Southern Vermont valleys are a wild card. This storm doesn't have much cold air to work with so the valleys will probably be looking at a rain/snow mix. However, sometimes, when precipitation gets heavy enough, it cools the atmosphere. If that happens, southern Vermont valleys could get a nice burst of more torrential snow. That could surprise folks with several inches of snow if that happens. 

The snow should we wet and heavy and sloppy, so I do worry there could be some power outages here and there. Which is sub-optimal, as I would put it, if you're cooking a Thanksgiving feast. If you live in higher elevations in southern Vermont, try to prepare as many meals ahead of time as you can. 

This area of heaviest snow should also encompass much of New Hampshire away from the seacoast. 

Northern Vermont

The northern half of the state, mostly north of Route 4, looks like it will be too far north to enjoy the heaviest snow. Higher elevations should still see a couple to a few inches of snow - one to five inches, depending on elevation.

The big "loser" in this storm - if you enjoy snow - would be the Champlain Valley.  It'll be too warm for much snow there. And the precipitation won't be heavy enough to cool the air like it might in southern Vermont. 

So, expect a cold rain, maybe mixed with sloppy wet snowflakes from time to time. The storm might end as a period of wet snow Thanksgiving night, but it's not looking like it will amount to much. 

Travel and Timing

The snow and rain will start early in the day and end later at night, so no matter how you slice it, you'll be dealing with weather on Vermont roads any time Thanksgiving Day. 

Roads of course can get slick anywhere, but anywhere that's  above 1,000 feet is sure to have snow-covered roads. Wet snow tends to compact in ice under car tires. Then that ice mixes with a little water to really create skating rinks on the pavement. 

This storm is a quick mover, so things should be improving greatly by Friday morning. If you're one of those crazies that get up way before dawn to hi the Black Friday deals, you probably will encounter some slick spots.

But during the day, main roads should clear up nicely, especially since Friday afternoon temperatures should get a little above freezing in most spots 

Up in the mountains and ski areas, any snow that does fall should mostly stick around for a long time, as forecasters expect cold weather to start this weekend and last well into December. 

No matter where it snows

Brief Tuesday Evening Thanksgiving Vermont Travel Update: Messy, But Could Be Worse?

Gloomy skies Tuesday afternoon, after rain and freezing
rain departed. Next up, a sloppy mix of rain and snow
seems likely on Thanksgiving. 

 Forecasters have settled on a Vermont Thanksgiving Day scenario in which we get a fairly quick shot of rain and snow, but with any luck, this could do more good than harm. 

Before we get to Thanksgiving, the freezing rain that caused havoc on Vermont roads this morning is gone. Good riddance. Light rain or snow showers might be scattered around tonight, but no biggie.

As of Tuesday evening, the forecast calls for not all that much snow in Vermont valleys. It'll be rain mixes with snow or just plain cold rain for most of the event, that is if the forecast holds.

The mountains (Read: Ski areas) get several inches of snow at least under this scenario. 

The event looks like it will be an all day affair on Thanksgiving, with the precipitation peaking from late morning to early evening. 

Slick roads are possible anywhere in Vermont with this, but higher elevations of course would be the worst.

One big caveat: Remember how I kept telling you for the past few days that the European computer models give us a much bigger snowstorm than the American?

Well, as of late Tuesday afternoon, the European model is stubbornly sticking to its story of giving us a fairly substantial snowstorm, even in the valleys. 

The other models are coalescing around a less snowy outcome. Except in the mountains. Especially southern Vermont mountains. 

But one thing to remember: The granddaddy of big Thanksgiving snowstorms, in 1971, was supposed to be a modest affair and ended up dumping eight to 20 inches of snow on Vermont.

Forecast accuracy has come a long way since 1971, so don't hold your breath for a repeat. But you never know.....

I'll have more details in tomorrow morning's post. 

Dude Picked To Run Commerce Department Will Probably Wreck The National Weather Service

Howard Lutnick is set to take over the Commerce 
Department under Trump.  Commerce controls NOAA
and the National Weather Service, and this all
bodes poorly for climate change research, and
timely weather emergency warnings. 

Last week we received word, that Donald Trump wants this guy named Howard Lutnick to be his commerce secretary.  

The U.S. Commerce Secretary's main role is to promote U.S. business, trade and innovation. 

Trump, as you probably heard on the news Wednesday, wants to impose these big tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.  Lutnick is a big cheerleader for tariffs, so his pick is no big surprise.

Never mind that most economists tell us that tariffs like those Trump and Lutnick so love would tank the economy and make the inflation we saw under the early parts of the Biden administration seem like a walk in the park. 

OK, I can hear you telling me, fine, but this is supposed to be a weather and climate blog. Why the hell are you blathering on about tariffs?

Fair enough, but I'm finally getting to the point now. 

Commerce is a sprawling agency, overseeing a lot of other agencies. Among Lutnick's management duties is NOAA, in which th National Weather Service is a big part. 

Given Lutnick's loyalty and general agreement and subservience to Trump on just about everything, this is bad.  Since he's such a Trump loyalist, he'll likely follow through and wreck the National Weather Service too. 

Trump's campaign statements that he doesn't know much about Project 2025, the blueprint for "governance" that his minions put out, is ominious.

Per NPR: 

"Project 2025 - a planning document drafted by Trump allies - calls for dismantling the parent agency of the weather service, NOAA, and either eliminating or privatizing its functions or turning them over to the states. 

While Trump has sought to deny a connection, there is plenty of overlap between Project 2025 and his agenda."

This would dwarf the mischief that Trump and his then commerce secretary Wilbur Ross conducted during Trump's first term.

This goes back to the famous "Sharpie" incident in which Trump falsely said Hurricane Dorian threatened Alabama.  That's when Trump showed a weather map altered with a Sharpie that purported to show the hurricane was headed toward Alabama.

National Weather Service meteorologists in Alabama ran afoul of Trump by truthfully saying that the hurricane was no threat to Alabama. 

Ross threatened to fire meteorologists who contradicted Trump.

That incident was small potatoes compared to what's coming. 

Project 2025 calls for dismantling NOAA, I'm thinking mostly because scientists there study climate change, and Trump is trying to gaslight the world by vainly trying to convince everyone that said climate change doesn't exist.

This Project 2025 also would get rid of the National Weather Service, likely by privatizing it.  The results, at least from what I can tell, would be far less accurate forecasts, no coordinated warning system for severe weather, and worse, perhaps putting weather forecasts behind a paywall, so that only people who can afford it can get, say tornado or flash flood warnings.

All you rubes who can't afford a paywall like this are on your own. If you get killed by a tornado or a hurricane, it's your fault for not being rich, apparently.  

So, we knew Trump's picks for his cabinet would be bad for the battle against climate change, and against science in general. How that will happen is now coming into focus as we learn who's going to doing what in the Trump administration.  

Vermont Thanksgiving Snow Forecast: Not A Huge Storm (We Think!) But Some Travel Trouble

The roads probably won't be quite this gummed up
with snow on Thanksgiving in Vermont, but it now
looks guaranteed that at least parts of the state
will have some travel issues with snow
on the holiday. Especially in higher elevations. 

 Once we get past the icy mess on some of Vermont's roads, highways and sidewalks this fine Tuesday morning, we look ahead to that potential Thanksgiving snow we've been talking about for days now.

The early read on this thing is it won't be an enormous snowfall, at least for us in Vermont, but it will probably be enough to complicate things on the roads once again. 

It's another sign The slick road thing started this morning and we should get used to it. We'll be dealing with it an awful lot at least through most of March. 

By the way, this morning was a mess, I'm not kidding. Interstate 89 near Exits 7 and 8, that's around Montpelier and Berlin was gummed up with several cars and trucks sliding off the road and/or crashing.  The Exit 7 on ramp to 89 northbound was closed for awhile, too.

Hardwick officials were warning people to stay off the roads. Pretty much all rural roads in central and eastern Vermont were a mess. 

So, bottom line, if you're planning on being on the roads today in Vermont, you're all set if you wait until late morning or early afternoon.  

Wednesday continues to look fine for road travel in and near Vermont. That leads us to Thanksgiving.

THANKSGIVING

While details of the forecast still need to be sorted out, we're getting a more clear picture of what to expect. At least we know pretty much for sure now that Vermont will at least be affected to some extent by this system coming through. 

Here's what it looks like at this point. I have to yell from the rafters, though, that this is subject to change. More info coming in later today and tomorrow will probably cause some forecast adjustments 

It'll be another modest, mid-sized storm heading by to our south.  So southern and central Vermont should see the most snow.  Early guess are one to four inches. Maybe more in the mountains from Killington south. 

Less snow will fall to the north, but light precipitation is expected all the way to the Canadian border and beyond. 

This looks like it might turn out to be another one of those elevation type storms.  The mountains could get some heavy wet snow and travel issues, even maybe some unwelcome power outages here and there. Broader, warmer valleys might be warm enough for rain to mix in, or for things to just change over to a cold rain.  

Things should switch back over to snow Thanksgiving night even in low elevations, so the trip home might be dicey too. 

After this goes by, the weekend will have a wintry feel with blustery winds, cold temperatures and snow showers here and there, especially up in the mountains. 

Like I said all this could change with subsequent forecasts, but I think meteorologists have gotten a pretty good handle on this. 

Heads Up Vermont: This Morning's Road Ice Even Worse Than Forecast

Beware, Vermont motorists. Roads throughout the state
will be icy for this morning's commute as freezing
rain moves in after a chilly night. 

 Heads up, Vermont commuters.

Chances are there's more ice on the roads that previously forecast early this morning.  

Skies stayed clear long enough last night so that temperatures fell well down into the 20s. Before dawn, rain was moving in, and it's going to freeze on a lot of roads, bridges and sidewalks. 

Some places will be worse than others, but be prepared for ice no matter where you are in Vermont this morning.  Even in the Champlain Valley, where temperatures were starting to rise above freezing as the rain moved in.

With the temperatures up in the mid 30s or so, you'd think there wouldn't be a problem. But the cold temperatures earlier dropped surfaces below freezing. So even if plain rain hits, it would still freeze on roads and such. 

The winter weather advisory that was in effect in central and eastern Vermont has been expanded to include all of Vermont, including the Champlain Valley. 

Be especially careful when encountering bridges. The road might be OK and you're cruising along on wet pavement. The ground might still be just warm enough under some roads in some areas to keep the rain from freezing.

But there's no ground under the bridges, obviously, so there's nothing to prevent the bridge from freezing. So a wet road turns into a skating rink on the bridge as you're zipping along at or over the speed limit, and that's a recipe for disaster. 

If you can postpone driving until mid morning or after, do that. If you can't, then drive very cautiously and leave plenty of extra time to get to where you are going. 

The rest of the day might be a bit rainy, but the roads should be fine this afternoon.

I'll update our potentially snowy Vermont Thanksgiving in a post later this morning. 

Just A Brief Monday Evening Iffy Storm Update: Still Deciding On Vermont Snow

As of Monday evening, we were still awaiting some agreement
on the computer models on whether it will be a snowy
Vermont Thanksgiving or just a meh kind of weather day.

 Frustratingly, we still don't have all that much firm forecasting on the potential storm in New England on Thanksgiving.  

Since this morning, the forecasts have leaned a little more toward the less dire scenario, with some snow but not all that much. Plus, this scenario doesn't have much cold air, so we'd also have some rain in the warmer valleys, but not a super substantial snowstorm.

The European model continues to cling to a scenario in which Vermont and surrounding areas get several inches of snow Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving night.  

Let's hope Tuesday morning forecasts are more consistent, we'll see 

We're still looking at icy roads in central and eastern Vermont early tomorrow morning from light freezing rain that's expected to fall, starting in the pre-dawn  hours. It'll change to rain later in the morning. 

The one place where forecasts are remarkably consistent is for the week or two after Thanksgiving. It'll be colder than  normal, so winter will have arrived. Unfortunately, extended forecasts have trended drier than normal, too, so we won't get much snow or other precipitation to erase the dry conditions we still have, despite some recent rains. 

Climate Change Supercharged Hurricane Wind Speeds

Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean in early July.
New study indicates hurricanes like this have 
stronger winds due to climate change. 

 Scientists have long said climate change is making hurricanes worse. 

A recent post I wrote talked about how

some hurricane' forward motion is slowing to a crawl, intensify flooding that tends to happen with these storms.

Additionally, a new study involving hurricane wind speeds is adding to that pile of research. 

As Axios reports, the study indicates that climate change increased the wind speeds of all 11 Atlantic hurricanes that formed this year. 

The increase in wind speeds among those hurricanes ranged from 9 to 28 mph. 

Hurricane Helene's maximum wind speed was 16 mph higher than it otherwise would have been. Hurricane Milton's peak intensity was 23 mph more than it would have been without climate change, according to the study. 

"Every hurricane in 2024 was stronger than it would have been 100 years ago," said Daniel Gifford, who led this new research. 

Damage potential increases exponentially with higher wind speeds.  A hurricane with top winds of 110 mph has a damage potential 21 times greater than that of a hurricane with just 75 mph winds.

A doubling of wind speed from 75 mph to 150 mph does not mean doubling potential damage. It's actually a 256 times increase, says NOAA.

The higher wind speeds in hurricanes wasn't just this year. More than two dozen such storms in recent years were studies and the same conclusion emerged. 

"The research......  found that 30 hurricanes in the study reached intensities that were one category higher than they otherwise would have been. 

The study found three hurricanes that reached Category 5 intensity largely because of climate change: Hurricane Lorenzo in 2019, Ian in 2022 and Lee in 2023."

Some scientists point out one caveat to this research.  It appears that a warmer Atlantic Ocean fed these hurricanes and made them stronger. But was that warming entirely due to climate change? Or were other factors involved, like pollution controls that allow brighter sun to penetrate and heat the water. Or natural cycles could have contributed to the ocean water warming. 

That will take even more study. But climate change is surely one factor making all these hurricanes more intense.  

Monday Morning Vermont Thanksgiving Week Travel Forecast: Still Some Questions (Sigh!)

Turkeys in the snow a few winters ago in St. Albans,
Vermont. We're still not sure whether Thanksgiving,
2024 in Vermont will be snowy or not. Some 
clarity in the forecast is emerging, though.

 We know the decidedly non-wintry November we've had so far will take a decisively wintry turn this week with expected bouts of ice, snow, wind and cold, but the questions still swirl around how things will go Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. 

The computer models are still split on what's going to happen in Vermont and the rest of northern New England, but the answers are slowly coming into focus. Sort of. 

But before we get to that, we do have one tale of travel trouble regionally before we get to Thanksgiving. 

We'll take it day by day again here 

Today: Nothing to worry about at all. There should be at least some sun, temperatures will reach the pretty seasonable low to mid 40s, and winds won't be a factor. If your Thanksgiving getaway starts today you're in luck.

Tuesday. Definitely the first uh-oh day of the bunch. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has hoisted a winter weather advisory from 1 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tuesday for the eastern half of Vermont.

That's for some expected freezing rain, unfortunately. 

It's from that long-advertised relatively minor storm system coming in from the west.  The rain is expected to start just in time for the Tuesday morning commute. It should be cold enough along and east of the Green Mountains for some freezing rain. It'll be patchy, so you'll need to be ready for road surprises early Tuesday.

You'll be cruising along on wet pavement, then you turn a corner or go down a hill and suddenly it's a skating rink. It looks like it will be just a bit too warm for freezing rain in the Champlain Valley, but it will be close. So keep an eye on that. 

By late morning Tuesday it will have warmed up, so by then it should just be raining.  If you have to travel anywhere tomorrow, wait until late morning and you should be fine. 

Those ice alerts, by the way, extend into the Adirondacks, most of New Hampshire and western Maine.

Wednesday: Still looking fine. Partly cloudy and seasonable. No travel trouble. 

Thanksgiving: The European and American computer models are still arguing with each other on this one. 

The European model keeps bringing Vermont and most of the rest of northern New England a decent snowfall, while the American is persisting on a whiff to the south. 

The consensus among the models is leaning toward snow in our neck of the woods but as of this Monday morning it's still not a slam dunk. 

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington explains it, a key to this is what an upper level low way up by James Bay Canada does.

If it backs up to the west a little bit more, it'll draw the storm northward more and Vermont gets snow. This is what the European model thinks will happen.

On the other hand, the American model has that thing up by James Bay elongate in an east-west arrangement. That would force the next storm to more southward and miss us. We'd get little or no snow. 

The ingredients for our possible Thanksgiving storm were just approaching the West Coast early today. Once those ingredients get inland later today, the models will be able to take better samples of it to judge how the wannabe storm will interact with the upper level storm up in James Bay.

I'm hoping by this evening we'll have a better idea. Fingers crossed! 

If it does snow on Thanksgiving, it will probably be a fairly wet snow, and there's still a possibility it could be mixed with rain, especially south. That's another question that's yet to be fully answered. If we do get the storm, it'll probably be a day-long thing and its effects on roads would probably last into Friday morning.

So if you're getting up way before dawn for Black Friday sales, gawd knows why, keep that in mind

Thanksgiving Snow History

If it does snow on Thanksgiving it certainly won't be the first time that's happened. Records from Burlington show that measurable snow has fallen on 32 Thanksgivings since 1893. 

Far and away the biggest Thanksgiving snow was in 1971. Burlington had 8.6 inches of snow that day, but other parts of Vermont had much more. Montpelier and Waitsfield each clocked in with a whopping 20 inches. 

If it does snow on Thanksgiving this year, it will be a pretty late first measurable snow for many of us. 

The average date for the first measurable snow of the season in Burlington is November 7.  (The latest first measurable snow was on December 7, 2009.

Sunday Evening Update On Thanksgiving Iffy Storm: Little New Clarity

Cold late November light Sunday afternoon, St. Albans,
Vermont. We still have not much clarity on what might
happen with a potential winter storm over the
Thanksgiving holiday. Stay tuned!

 Since everyone is interested in Thanksgiving holiday travel, I thought I'd throw out a little Sunday evening update on potential storminess in Vermont and the Northeast.  

Unfortunately, I don't have much new clarity fresh clarity on this, as the computer models are disagreeing on what might happen. 

Since people will be traveling all week, here's the latest updates for in and around Vermont

Monday: You're fine. Nothing to worry about.

Tuesday: Looks like we're in for a little freezing rain and even sleet in parts of Vermont early on Tuesday as the next storm blows in. It won't be much, but just a tiny bit of freezing rain will cause havoc. Freezing rain is least likely in the Champlain Valley, most likely in eastern Vermont.

It'll warm up by late morning, so if you're on the roads Tuesday, wait until after 10 a.m. or so. By then, it'll just be plain rain. 

Wednesday: There might be some mountain snow showers and slick spots early in the morning, but things should improve pretty quickly. Just like on Tuesday, if you wait until after 9 or 10 a.m. or so to hit the roads, you should be fine

Thanksgiving and Friday: Here's where the question marks are still huge. Just as in this morning's forecast, the European computer models give Vermont and the rest of northern New England either a moderate snowfall, or some snow and mixed garbage. 

The American model tries to take everything too far south of Vermont to cause much snow. However, some of the American models this afternoon have trended north with the storm, which could be an early sign that the American model is beginning to gel with the European.

I don't know whether this is a trend, but we'll watch it tomorrow and Tuesday.  I'm hoping we have a better handle on this by Tuesday night. 

Saturday and Beyond: Broad brush, it looks like it will be cold and wintry and breezy with snow showers, but I can't offer anything more specific than that just yet. 

Four Typhoons Hit Philippines In 10 Days

 If you thought the hurricane season in the United States was bad (it was), the Philippines would like a word. 

Wreckage and flooding after one of four typhoons in
the Philippines within 10 days this month.

Earlier this month, that nation was hit by four typhoons with 10 days, probably their most active stretch of such scary weather on record.   

Typhoons, by the way, are exactly the same thing as hurricanes. That's just the name for them in the western Pacific. 

Overall, typhoon activity in the western Pacific has actually been a little quieter than average this year. But that big flurry of activity has the Philippines begging to differ.

Especially since these weren't exactly wimpy storms. 

The first one hit the northern tip of Luzon island on November 7 with top sustained winds of 150 mph. The next one hit on November 11 a little further south on Luzon with top winds of 80 mph. Just three days later, Luzon was hit again with another typhoon, this one worse with 140 mph to sustained winds.

Finally, within 24 hours after that, the final typhoon hit with 130 mph winds. 

The third in the series appeared to be the worst. Video shows incredible winds smashing through the region in near zero visibility because of the torrential rains. 

Luzon is the Philippines most populated island, which is the one that kept getting hit  The four typhoons combined have killed at least 160 people.

The fourth typhoon just piled onto damage from the previous storms. In total, at least 8,000 homes were destroyed or severely damaged, and 700,000 people had to flee to emergency shelters or relatives' homes. 

Farmland is so badly damaged that the country will probably have to import more rice.   

The spate of typhoons has since ended at least for now, so the Philippines are safe from further damage for awhile yet. 

Vermont/Northeast Winter Storm Rumors For Thanksgiving Weekend Are True. With Asterisks

Breaks of sun visible this morning west of St. Albans,
Vermont this morning, but those darker clouds
overhead move east and develop into snow showers
by the time they hit the western slopes of the 
Green Mountains. No biggie, but there's a possible
larger winter storm looming end of week.

 Even as many other parts of the nation have received their first substantial snows of the season, most of Vermont and the rest of northern New England is still waiting.  

If current forecasts hold true, there's a decent chance that wait might be over starting later on Thanksgiving Day and continuing into next weekend.

There's a chance we could see a fairly substantial snowstorm in Vermont and other parts of northern New York and New England at the end of the upcoming week.

It's by no means a slam dunk. It's a good four to five days away so things could radically change. Yes, an expected storm could take a "perfect path" across eastern New England and give Vermont several inches of snow.

But this thing could still go too far south to give us much. Or it could come too far north, or not have enough cold air to work with, and we end up with an icy, rainy, schmutz.

More on that storm in a bit, but first, we have to go through some winter appetizer systems before we get to the potential main event at the end of the week.

TODAY

Today could be interesting in parts of Vermont, but not in an extreme way. 

That storm that gave the wet, sometimes snowy and weird weather to the Northeast the past couple of days is now off in the Canadian Maritimes.

We have that classic post-storm northwest flow of air.  Those of us in the northern Champlain Valley can see patches of blue this morning off to the northwest, but the Green Mountains look socked in by clouds.

Winds coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks suppress clouds, causing that narrow band of clearing on the west shore of Lake Champlain. But the air is forced to rise as it heads into the Green Mountains. That rising air makes moisture condense into snow showers. 

Some of those snow showers could back as far west as Route 7 today, so those areas might see what has been a rare sight so far this year - snowflakes. 

Those flakes won't accumulate in the valleys, but they will up in the ,mountains. Maybe just one to three inches of new snow, with more than six on some of the northern Green Mountain summits. So at least some places in Vermont will end up finally looking like winter today. 

Whatever happens, it will feel blustery, and cold today. So bundle up like it is winter. Because it kinda is. 

EARLY WEEK

After a quiet Monday, a modest storm comes through Monday night and Tuesday. This one looks warm enough to bring more rain. However - and it's a big however - this could start as freezing rain in central and eastern Vermont. 

It won't be a lot, but when it comes to freezing rain, a little dab will do ya. I'd start planning on possible slick roads for the Tuesday morning commute. Even a brief shower of freezing rain is enough to mess up the roads. 

Any freezing rain will thaw out during the day. But after the storm goes by, colder air will change things to snow showers Tuesday night, so there might be slick spots Wednesday morning, too.

THE MAIN EVENT

For those of you traveling on Thanksgiving, the morning should be fine. It's just the evening, and Black Friday travel days that might be the issue. 

Again, we're not sure of the path of this potential storm  yet. This morning's American computer model mostly takes it too far south of us to cause much hassle. 

The European computer model in general creates a stronger storm that moves up from the Mid-Atlantic States and right through eastern New England Friday. That puts us in the cross hairs for either a snowfall in Vermont or even a mix of crap.

Stay tuned for updates on this. Nobody is sure who will win this forecasting battle: The American or European models. It's a tossup.

If any snow does fall out of this, it will stick around for awhile as the weather pattern is shifting to a cold, wintry one that keeps any real thaws away from us heading well into December. 

Bomb Cyclone Finally Wanes In Pacific Northwest; New "Bomb" in UK Raising Havoc This Weekend

Big waves from Storm Bert crash into Devon, UK
The bomb cyclone is causing havoc throughout
the UK this weekend. 

 Storminess is finally waning along the West Coast as a one-two punch from a bomb cyclone and atmospheric river finally wane. 

The bomb cyclone - an explosively developing, intense storm - unleashed ferocious winds on the Pacific Northwest, notably Washington State. 

Two people were killed by falling trees, and power was cut to hundreds of thousand of homes and businesses.

The storm's atmospheric river - an intense band of moisture in the air, set its sights on northern California in the past three days. 

Venado, California received 17.4 inches of rain and Austin Creek wasn't far behind with 15.6 inches. 

Santa Rosa, California had its wettest three-day period on record, with around 12;5 inches of rain. Downtown San Francisco suffered some flash flooding as three inches of rain deluged the city Friday. 

Mudslides and flooding were widespread, inundating streets in San Francisco among other cities and closing parts of the Pacific Coast Highway in Mendocino County. 

This could have been worse had the atmospheric river not hit during the beginning of the wet season. Dry soils were able to absorb part of the deluge, but certainly not all of it. 

More rain is forecast from the central California coast all the way to Washington and beyond the next several days, but it will be much lighter than it was during the atmospheric river. No major new flooding is anticipated.

BRITISH BOMB

A bomb cyclone named Bert is strafing Great Britain with heavy snow, rain, storm surges and strong winds.  British meteorologists are, in their usual understatement, calling it the storm a "multi-hazard event."

One person has already died when a tree fell on his car. Five people in Wales had to be rescued when a mudslide engulfed their home. 

High elevations in northern England and in Scotland were expecting 8 to 16 inches of snow.  Temperatures were expected to warm up and snow was likely to change to rain in some areas, raising the risk of flooding from snowmelt. 

Up to six inches of rain was expected this weekend in parts of Wales and southwestern England. That's about the amount of rain that should fall there in the entire month of November, according to the BBC 

Significant flooding is also reportedly developing in Ireland. Travel was discouraged and much of Scotland and some train service was suspended.

In Europe, they name their big winter storms, like the United States names hurricanes. That's why this one is named Bert.

Rough weather in the UK from Bert is forecast to continue the rest of the weekend.