Vermont Week Ahead: More Big, Weird Temperature Swings, Lack Of Rain Continues.

Late autumn light on a bright and chilly late afternoon
Sunday in St. Albans, Vermont. Another big warm
 up is on the way, though. 

As we get set for the week in  Vermont, which I hear also includes some sort of election, the weather is going to be all over the place. 

Again.

It's already been weird. We had those hottest for so late in the season record highs on Halloween. On November 1, more record highs before dawn, and the afternoon turned out chilly. 

Here in St. Albans on Saturday afternoon, just 48 hours after it was in the upper 70s, it snowed briefly. 

In Burlington, thew low temperature Sunday morning was 29 degrees, the coldest temperature so far this autumn.

The only remarkable thing about that is how mild that coldest so far reading is. Especially if you consider the normal low is in the mid 30s and record lows in Burlington this time of year are in the teens. 

This week, the temperature roller coaster continues, with precious little rain as our long dry spell continues. 

Today

A warm front is approaching, so clouds will be increasing. 

Here's a first in the season alert:  There could be a patch or two of light freezing rain or sleet in a couple spots early this morning. Mostly in northern New York, but there could be isolated instances in northern Vermont.

It won't last long or be widespread.  But it's a here we go again moment, huh?

This afternoon won't be much warmer than Sunday ahead of this front, with highs reaching the 40s. Maybe 50 in the warm spots. Gusty south winds this afternoon could increase the fire danger, especially in southern Vermont where absolutely no precipitation is forecast. The forest fire danger in Vermont is listed as very high today, except "just" high up in the Northeast Kingdom, where they might get those sprinkles. 

Tonight, the temperature won't fall, and might even rise a bit overnight. 

A few showers might break out Monday night with the warm front, but they won't amount to much if they happen at all. Southern Vermont will again probably stay dry, the north might get vaguely damp. 

Tuesday

Election day and night will be weird for a whole bunch of reasons, as you can imagine. But that will include Vermont weather. 

 Temperatures will soar once again to frankly weird levels. Not like Halloween, but still. By afternoon, many of us will be in the 60s again. Maybe near 70 in a few spots if the sun shines a fair amount. 

Then it gets weirder Tuesday night. Many places, especially in western Vermont, will have another oddly balmy, summer-like night. Temperatures might  fail to drop below 60 degrees in some towns. Probably Burlington will be one of them. 

Wednesday

You'd think that the extreme warmth of Tuesday night would set us up for insanely warm temperatures Wednesday. It will be toasty, with some us making it to the low 70s. That is indeed pretty insane for November 6. 

But it will also be falling on the anniversary of one of increasingly bizarro warm spells in the age of climate change. On November 6, 2022, we had our warmest November day on record, making it to 76 degrees in Burlington. The low temperature that day was a July-like 62 degrees.

We probably won't be able to compete with that. Besides, a cold front will be coming through, probably in the afternoon, to keep temperatures ever so slightly in check. Depending on the timing of this front, temperatures might start falling back in the afternoon.

Once again, this cold front looks like it won't have much rain along it. This despite some strangely humid air for this time of year. The atmospheric dynamics aren't there. We just can't catch a break. There could be a tenth of an inch of rain north, and once again, probably nothing south.

For comparison, when the November 2022, heat wave began to break late on the sixth that year, downpours deposited a very nice 0.72 inches of rain on the Champlain Valley. Parts of Franklin and northern Chittenden County got two inches of rain in that episode. Not this year, I'm afraid.

Thursday and Beyond

Temperatures once again head downhill for the end of the week, but signs point to a cool down not a steep as the one we had this weekend. Highs would be in the upper 40s and 50s, which is near to a little bit above normal for this time of year. 

The air by the end of the week will be dry. The ground will be dry. The wind will be dry. And stiff at times. So, we'll have to worry about forest and brush fires again. 

The Long Haul

Once we get beyond five days, forecasts get less accurate. But NOAA's extended forecast that runs to November 17 continues to lean heavily toward warmer than normal temperatures through the middle of the month. 

Maybe not every day will be warm, but the odds are strongly tilted toward most days being, well, not winter..

Those extended forecasts lean slightly toward somewhat wetter weather by the middle of the month, but forecasters are hedging their bets on that one. 

Late Season Burst Of Tropical Storms; Southern Plains Battered By Tornadoes, Rain Steadfastly Avoids Northeast

That disorganized swirl of clouds between Cuba and
South America in this morning's satellite view
could eventually become Tropical Storm Rafael.

 UPDATE 5 PM SUNDAY:

Late this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center designated that disturbance in the western Caribbean as "Potential Tropical Cyclone #18".

The reason is, this thing has gotten a noticeable circulation since this morning, bringing it closer to tropical storm status.

It wasn't quite there yet, so the NHC is still calling it potential.

By morning, I'm pretty sure it will be officially Tropical Storm Rafael.

Forecasts are pretty bullish on this thing.  It's expected to become a hurricane.

It should be a strong tropical storm by the time it brushes past Jamaica Tuesday, and a hurricane Wednesday when the Cayman Islands and western Cuba deal with it.

From there, it's expected to move north or northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico where it faces a very uncertain future.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

The strange, busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is giving one last hurrah, with two systems now roaming out there. 

Meanwhile, the southern Plains keep getting battered by storms and the Northeast still seems to have a steadfast anti-rain shield.

TROPICS

Subtropical Storm Patty formed west of the Azores a couple days ago, and then moved eastward into those islands yesterday and overnight. 

It's subtropical, not Tropical Storm  Patty because it has the characteristics of both a tropical and non-tropical system.

  It's got a warm core like a tropical storm but it's formed within a larger storm system with a colder center, which is what you normally see with a non-tropical storm.

Patty's winds peaked at 65 mph yesterday and it's now weakening.  It's forecast to become a remnant low that'll hit northern Portugal and northwestern Spain toward Tuesday.  It won't cause too many problems there. Which is good, since Spain is reeling from that epic flood in the Valencia region on the opposite end of the nation. 

Patty is the ninth named tropical or tropical type storm to form in the Atlantic since September 24. That ties with 1950 as the most such storms to form in the Atlantic after that date in September. 

But wait, there's more! 

The real trouble is brewing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. That area has been monitored for more than a week for signs of a tropical storm. The area of disturbed weather is finally getting its act together and is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael within the next couple of days. 

If a tropical storm forms in November, this is the place they usually start.  The water temperature down there is still super warm, and it's too far south for autumn cold fronts to disrupt attempts at development. 

Early indications are Wannabe Rafael will try to move north and threaten Jamaica, Hispaniola or Cuba. It could even reach hurricane strength. 

Once Wannabe Rafael gets past Cuba, all bets are off. The early thinking is it will end up in the Gulf of Mexico, but will it eventually hit the United States and if so, where?

We don't know. Also. Wannabe Rafael could hit a hostile environment in the Gulf of Mexico. The gulf is far enough north to see those autumn cold fronts this time of year. A front like that would bring dry air and strong upper level winds, which would tend to rip a tropical storm or hurricane apart.

Then again, it's still possible for a hurricane to make landfall in the United States in November. It happened with Hurricane Kate back in 1985 and Nicole back in 2022, both of which hit Florida. So we'll see. 

Even if it's a weak system Florida does not need another hurricane or tropical storm this year after the damage and heartache Debby, Helene and Milton caused. 

Believe it or not, some forecast models depict another tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean around November 19-ish. However, those long range models very often create phantom forecast hurricanes that more often than not never form, so that that November 19 idea with a tremendously large grain of salt. 

SOUTHERN PLAINS

Storm chaser Nick Smith documented this severe
overnight tornado damage in Harrah, Oklahoma,
just east of Oklahoma City. 

The overall weather pattern is stuck, so storms keep hitting the southern Plains and that state of affairs seems like it will continue for awhile. A handful of tornadoes were reported in Oklahoma and Texas yesterday. 

Tornadoes around Oklahoma City damaged several homes and caused at least six injuries, television station KOCO reports. 

More severe weather and possible tornadoes are expected in the same region later today and especially tomorrow. 

Torrential storms caused flooding in what had been drought-stricken parts of Oklahoma overnight. More flooding is possible today and tomorrow. 

That rain is not heading east, so the drought-stricken Northeast will continue with its long stretch of parched ground and wildfires.  

National Drought Worsens, As We In Vermont Are Getting Drier Too

As of this week, 87 percent of the Lower 48 is abnormally
dry or in drought. That's the most since at least the
year 2000. Only areas in white are not too dry. 

A drought across most of the United States has continued to worsen.  

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor, issued Thursday morning, now shows that 87.16 percent of the Lower 48 United States is abnormally dry or in drought. That's the greatest percentage since this drought monitor started in 2000.

A full 54 percent of the Lower 48 is in drought, which is affecting about 150 million people. 

The reason, of course, was the lack of storminess in October. Preliminary data suggests the Lower 48 might have had its third driest October on record. Only central Florida, which dealt with Hurricane Milton on October 9-10 and northeastern New Mexico, which endured destructive flash flooding on October 19 were notably wet. 

Several cities in the Northeast, South and Midwest had no measurable rain in October. 

Finally, some good rains are in the forecast for a large swath of the nation's middle from northern Texas to the central Great Lakes starting now and continuing for the next few days. 

But of course, given that we always seem to have extremes in this age of climate change, some of the rain is much too much of a good thing. Parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri appear poised to go from drought to flood in the next few days as five to eight inches of rain are in the forecast. 

I guess a silver lining is that rivers are so low in that region that the inevitable flooding from this storm will not be as bad as it would have if there wasn't a pre-existing drought. 

NORTHEAST 

Wildfire in Monson, Massachusetts on Friday.
Fires are getting worse in the Northeast due to 
a long and getting longer dry spell. 

In the Northeast, which covers the zone from West Virginia and Maryland to Maine, drought and dry conditions expanded quite a bit. That's not surprising given the past week has had little or no rain in the region. 

Last week's report had 64 percent of the region as abnormally dry or in drought. That figure zoomed up to 79 percent this week. Areas in drought went from 29 to 28 percent in that week. 

Most of the Northeast is expecting little rain in the next seven days, with some areas seeing no rain in the forecast at all.  

Wildfires - ongoing for weeks - continued to worse in the region, especially Friday, when dry, gusty winds swept through.  Some were taking on some characteristics of those big western fires we often see on the news.

Eight homes were evacuated in Rockaway Township, New Jersey Friday due to a fast-spreading wildfire. At last report, it looks like firefighters saved those homes. 

During a typical Massachusetts October, about 15 wildfires break out. This October, the state endured at least 200 of them during the month. 

On Friday, a very large forest fire was burning around Monson, Massachusetts and firefighter were working to protect several homes in the area. 

VERMONT 

Most of Vermont is  now considered abnormally dry
due to an ongoing rainfall shortfall. The small orange
areas in far southern Vermont represent drought. 

Here in Vermont, abnormally dryness expanded exponentially. Last week, only southern Vermont was regarded as "abnormally dry." Now, the only areas not considered dry like that are most of the Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom. 

Personally, I'm feeling lucky because as I poke around in the gardens, ground moisture here in St. Albans still looking OK. 

Not exactly sopping wet but so far not much to worry about. I even got a few brief showers that left a few hundredths of an inch of rain Friday afternoon.

Not much, but given the weather pattern, I'll take what we can get. 

Drought in southern Vermont ticked upward a bit, too. It now encompasses about half of Bennington County and a few corners of Windham County.

Rainfall in Vermont is forecast to be pretty paltry, too. Especially in southern Vermont where they need it the most. As of Saturday, the seven day rain forecast had totals ranging from nothing in the southern half of Vermont to maybe a quarter inch at most along the the Canadian border.

We need a lot more rain than that. But long range forecasts keep us dry into mid-November.  

NOAA Fact Check Dishearteningly Necessary, Not That Millions Of Wackos Would Believe Actual Facts, Science

NOAA launched a web page meant to debunk lots of
wild conspiracy theories about the weather. 
Great effort, but large portions of the population
chose to believe things that defy basic physics. 

 With all the deeply crazy conspiracy theories about the weather that an alarmingly large number of people believe, NOAA recently had to post a page on its web site debunking the whacko ideas out there.  

The NOAA debunking info is a  mindnumbingly Captain Obvious web page, but I don't blame them. We live in an idiocracy, a society increasingly controlled by stupid people. Or at least willfully ignorant ones. 

I don't know if NOAA's conspiracy debunking page will do much good, because people cling to their out there ideas like their life depended on it. Never mind if what they think is going on defies basic laws of physics. 

 For the record, here's some facts that NOAA provides. The meteorologists there tell us they can't control or steer hurricanes. They don't do cloud seeding, though some private companies do that to produce a little rain in highly local areas.

Also, have you ever seen NOAA Doppler radar installations? They look like a giant white snowball atop a radio tower. This now very commonly used radar is really good at peering inside storms, helping in many ways.  One great example is how Doppler radar finds shifting winds inside a severe thunderstorm to determine whether a tornado is forming so meteorologists can warn us if they do find something suspicious. 

But nope! NOAA has to try and debunk all those who are saying those Doppler radar towers are somehow steering hurricanes and targeting specific communities. As if some random National Weather Service meteorologist decided they had a bad vacation experience in Fort Myers and decided to smite the city with a hurricane as revenge. 

NOAA also sees fit to debunk something called HAARP.  This one is an old classic.

The conspiracy theory behind HAARP has been going for years now. It's supposedly the mechanism in which the evil government controls the weather, or sprays us with mind control chemicals or ensures child trafficking can go on, or gawd knows what else.

Sigh. 

There actually is such a thing as HAARP.  It's a small little National Science Foundation-funded research center in remote Gakona, Alaska that is focusing on the ionosphere, which is 30 to 600 miles above the Earth's surface - and above the Earth's weather.  HAARP is basically a large radio transmitter. 

REACTION

NOAA posted on X a link to their conspiracy debunking page and as you can imagine, the comments on the post were depressing as hell.

I still can't get over how people create entire new realities from thin air. 

There's a ton of breathless responses about how "they" are controlling the weather and NOAA is lying. As if they're some top secret organization that's somehow mustering the energy of 10,000 atomic bombs to steer hurricanes into the United States without a bunch of people noticing it.  

Somehow, a Hurricane Helene or a Hurricane Milton is "proof" of some grand conspiracy, rather than hurricanes just following the laws of physics, like they always do. 

Many of the conspiracy comments conflate cloud seeding, which as I previously noted can produce some rain in very local areas, to this Huge Project to flood out vast sections of the United States. Or something. It's never clear what these conspiracy theorists are getting at. 

I also hardly see any of these people explain why they think the government is steering storms and just making life miserable on purpose. 

Sales of tin hats these days must be at record high levels. 

Other people posted photos of jet contrails and cirrus clouds as somehow "proof" of weather modification. Normal people just note that the photos are just standard issue clouds that you see them all the time.

One response to NOAA on X showed time stamped videos showing how NOAA or the U.S. government "controls" the weather. The videos start at around 7:30 in the morning show a few jet contrails and cirrus clouds. As the morning goes on in this video series, the clouds gradually lower and thicken, until by 2 p.m. it looks like it's going to rain.

You can't get it through this person's head that what they documented was the approach of some type of weather system, probably a run-of-the-mill warm front. 

This same person posted dozens and dozens of photos of various clouds "showing" government weather control. Literally all of the photos show the type of clouds we've all seen hundreds of times in the sky. By the way, the jet contrails she keeps showing consist of either water vapor or more likely ice crystals. 

It all goes on and on. 

What's completely ignored in these theories is that humans are actually controlling the weather in one way. At least sort of.

It's called climate change.  Which of obviously not something that people are directing at any one group. But it is affecting all of us. 

There is plenty of evidence that because of human-caused  climate change, storms are in general getting worse, precipitation is getting heavier in some storms and record heat waves have gotten much more common place. Hell, just this week, dozens if not hundreds of record high temperatures across the United States. 

I've actually got a conspiracy theory of my own.  

The people who make up and embrace these crazy notions of weather control understand they - fairly or not - lead an unremarkable life that maybe is to them a little boring. Not to say my life is a James Bond style thrill every second of my existence. I'm definitely nothing special. But I like to live in reality, thank you. Or at least look for reliable evidence if somebody throws a theory or "fact" out there. 

I wonder if some of these conspiracy theories with pedestrian lives imagine placing  themselves in a made up bad TV drama about some mad scientist bent on destroying the world through weather modification, atmospheric mind control, whatever they come up with. 

Maybe they picture themselves as real-life Columbus or Matlocks, you know the underestimated character who figures out what is really going on and brings the villains to justice. 

All this is encouraged by people - supposed leaders - who are actually trying to gain control.  Many of the people feeding the conspiracy theory this steady diet of nonsense have their own aims. Not to control the weather, they know they can't do that. 

But feeding the conspiracy beast earns them money, power, status, autocracy in some cases  

And people are falling for these distractions hook, line and sinker.  

Just As You Probably Thought: October Vermont Was Warm, Dry

A warm, dry October in Vermont that was punctuated by
some great "snoliage" at mid month. 

 To the surprise to I imagine very few people October in Vermont turned out to be on the warm and dry side. 

Boosted by an especially warm second half of the month, October, 2024  mean temperature as measured in Burlington came out to 53.3 degrees. 

That's 3 degrees above the "new normal." which is based on the average of years from 1990 to 2020, when climate change had already started to elevate our temperatures. 

Had this same month occurred a few decades ago, it would have been more than five degrees warmer than average.

As it was, this October managed to be the ninth warmest on record in Burlington. Incredibly, it's the seventh month so far this year that has been one of the top ten warmest on record. That's just a complete re-write of the history books. Climate change indeed!

Everywhere else in Vermont also had a warmer than average October, but the departure from the "new normal" average was one to three degrees. 

We had a lot of clear or mostly clear days and nights, and that's reflected in the temperature data. Sunshine tends to boost daytime temperatures, but clear skies tend to be cooler than cloudy ones. 

Most Vermont weather stations had average daytime highs in October that were three to five degrees warmer than average.  But the average low temperature for October was close to average. Rutland and Woodstock actually had average October lows marginally cooler than the "new normal."

 Combined with lots of sunshine in September, the frequent sunny weather in October subjectively makes this the nicest autumn up to this point I can remember.  The bright, calm weather really extended the foliage season out to nearly the entire month, which is nice.

True, the lack of rain is a little disconcerting, but so far, the dry conditions in the Green Mountain State aren't nearly as bad as points south of here, which had almost no rain in October. 

DRY MONTH

 Burlington had a month's total of 2.35 inches, which is about an inch and a half on the dry side. The just ended month bucked a trend toward wetter Octobers.  This one in Burlington was the driest October since 2004.  In the 132 years since 1892, when good precipitation records started, 43 Octobers were drier than this year's. 

A perfect October sugar maple tree in St. Albans,
Vermont. Photo taken on October 23.  Foliage season
ran a little later than average thanks to a very
warm autumn so far. 

The further south and east you went in Vermont this October, the drier it got. St. Johnsbury had a shade under two inches of rain in October, which was more or less half the normal. 

Bennington's October rainfall was two inches of their normal 3.61 inches. Woodstock's rainfall was a scant 1.67 inches, nearly three inches below normal.

Despite the warmth during the month, snow made an early season appearance as it often does in October. In both cases the snow over-performed, but luckily caused little harm, and some benefits. 

The October 16 snow on the mountain summits was impressive. Mount Mansfield had a foot of snow in that episode, the most for so early in the season. Even at 3,300 feet up the mountain in Underhill State Park, 11 inches accumulated. Over in New York State, 15 inches buried the summit of aptly named Whiteface Mountain. 

This high elevation snow hit during peak foliage, so "snoliage" - colorful leaves and white-topped mountains under clear blue skies on October 17 was gorgeous, to understate how beautiful it was. 

Snow hit valley locations on October 27. Burlington had its first trace of October snow in four years. Many other locations had a dusting to two inches. Early morning temperatures fell below freezing that morning, so we had our first of the season little bout with icy roads. That contributed to a few crashes on the highways. 

Temperatures quickly warmed after that. And as I wrote Friday morning, it ended up bringing us by far the warmest Halloween on record. Numerous high temperature records were set, many of which clocked in as the warmest for so late in the season. 

Long range outlooks into mid-November - if they come true - look good for the heating bills, but bad for the fire risk and drought. NOAA is leaning toward a mostly warm next couple weeks with drier than average conditions. 

If November proves unusually warm in Vermont, this could prove to be one of our top ten warmest autumns. As it stands now, seven of the top 10 warmest autumns as measured in Burlington have occurred since 2011.

Yet another likely case of climate change affecting us right where we live. 

Those Record Highs In The Northeast Kept Coming, And I'm Gobsmacked

My surroundings on Thursday said stick season, but the
air said midsummer as record highs were smashed in
Vermont and across the Northeast and southeastern
Canada. Overnight lows were hot, too.

 Updated lists of record highs in the Northeast and southeastern Canada kept coming in, and locally around Vermont and New York, the figures are astounding. 

Plattsburgh, New York takes the cake for breaking record highs in the most dramatic fashion to say the least. 

It did get to 83 in Plattsburgh Thursday, smashing the record for the date of 72.  It was also the latest 80 degree reading on record there. (The old record was October 28). Their low temperature in Plattsburgh was 62 degrees, breaking the record for warmest minimum for the date by a full ten degrees, which is insane.

Then it gets even more whacko in Plattsburgh.  It was still 77 degrees there at 12:01 this morning. That means Plattsburgh broke the record for the warmest reading for the entire month of November.  Also, it's rare to break a previous high temperature by more than five degrees, so breaking it by 10 or 11 degrees is also ridiculous.

Burlington, Vermont was definitely in on the record breaking party, too.  We have confirmation this morning that yesterday's high in Burlington was 77 degrees, breaking the old record by six degrees and becoming the warmest for so late in the season.

Thursday's low temperature in Burlington was 64 degrees which broke the record for warmest minimum temperature for the date by five degrees. 

Then, at 12:01 a.m. in Burlington, it was still 72 degrees, enough to break the record high for the date today, November 1. 

Just a few of of the dozens of other records set Thursday include:

Montpelier, Vermont, 75, old record 70.

Caribou, in northern Maine, 77,  old record 69

Massena, New York, 77, old record 73

Hartford, Connecticut 84, old record 82 

Syracuse, New York 81, old record 75.

Canadian cities smashed record highs as well. Here's a partial list:

Montreal reached 76 degrees, old record 71.

Quebec City, 71, old record 64.

Sherbrooke, Quebec 75, old record 68. 

Ottawa, 75, old record 70.

As I noted yesterday, climate change is helping to turn what might have been fairly impressive warm spells to off the charts gonzo heat waves. This is the latest example.

UP NEXT

A cold front was sweeping through this morning, and temperatures were gradually falling. More record highs might occur today in eastern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the cold front. 

Wildfires worries will continue into November, especially in southern New England and the Mid-Atlatic States. The cold front is carrying very few showers if any showers. Gusty winds and dry air today have prompted red flag warnings for fire danger across southern New England, southern New York and parts of New Jersey.

Little or no rain is forecast in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states for at least a week, continuing an increasingly dangerous drought there. 

Up here in northern Vermont, a little rain fell, but nothing impressive. Burlington reported 0.04 inches. Montpelier came in with 0.03 inches early this morning. With those gusty winds, the forest fire risk today in Vermont is high across northern areas and very high in the southern half of the state, according to the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. 

A statewide burn ban remains in effect. 

Temperatures in Vermont will slowly fall all day and be in the 50s for the most part by late afternoon. 

The weekend will be generally sunny and just a little cool for the season, but certainly not the least bit unusual for early November.  We'll have highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s. It'll just seem cold compared to the weather we just had.

A warm front will prompt some chilly rain Monday in northern New England. We should see another brief squirt of very warm air Tuesday and part of Wednesday, but it won't be as intensely balmy as the air we just experienced on Halloween.

If you have not already voted, you should have no trouble going to the polls with the weather Tuesday given the expected toasty weather for the season.

I'll have my monthly summary of how Vermont's weather fared in October in a separate post later today.