Autumn In July For Vermont, For A Couple Days, Anyway

Part of my perennial garden in St. Albans, Vermont
enjoys a little evening sun after a bit of rain 
earlier in the day, The gardens will now cool off
a bit in a mid-summer break from the heat and humidity,

Autumn is here! Well, kinda, sorta, for a day or two.

Yesterday's storm system is long gone, having caused few problems locally. A band of strong storms did pass through southern Vermont and points south.  The only trouble from those I've seen so far in Vermont is in Saxtons River, where a tree fell on a house on Sunday. 

There were numerous reports of tree and wire damage, and some structural damage in the New York Capitol District, and in what you might want to call Rhodachusecut, basically southern New England.

A series of reinforcing cold fronts came through the last night, and the cool weather is here. 

This means for the next two or three days we in the Green Mountain State face something we basically haven't seen all summer: No heat, no humidity, no severe storm threat, no flash flooding, heck, no rain! It even looks like we'll have a reprieve from that wildfire smoke for a few days. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY/TONIGHT

A classic September day is on tap. Which is interesting, since right around July 21 is on average the hottest part of the summer. 

A few lingering showers early this morning should depart.  I said no rain above, but you do need an exception in everything. There could also be a sprinkle or two over the mountains today. 

In the broader valleys and in southeast Vermont, we'll call today partly sunny. Some clouds will be around, but I imagine the sun will be out half the time, or almost that.  I think the mountains and the Northeast, Kingdom will stay on the cloudy side, but even those places will have breaks of sun. 

Highs today should only get into the low 70s in the Champlain Valley and 60s across the rest of northern and central Vermont. The warmest parts of southern Vermont could reach the mid-70s. All this is pretty average for mid-September. 

It'll be downright chilly for many of us tonight, but look at it as a very comfortable sleeping night. Most of Vermont will be in the 40s by dawn Tuesday. We might even seen a 38 or 39 in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom. There might be some low 50s near Lake Champlain.  

Although all this is all pretty nippy compared to the weather we've had in most recent summers, historically, this cool spell is a yawner. In the 20th century and before, this kind of comfortable spell in a Vermont summer was routine, and it very often use to get much colder than this in July, 

It has been as cold as 39 degrees in Burlington in July and 29 degrees in West Burke (back in 1962),  Frost would hit the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom every once in awhile.  Climate change has now turned a routine July cool spell into something that now feels kind of exceptional, 

REST OF WEEK

Tuesday stays bright, sunny and cool for the season with highs in the 70s.  Tuesday night looks on the cool side, too, but not as chilly as tonight. The return to summer begins Wednesday, as we should be back in the 80s. 

By Thursday, it's back to the the heat and humidity, as it could reach 90 again. After that, the "heat dome" we keep talking about will center itself right in the middle of the U.S.  The heat will get nasty in most of the nation except the West Coast and maybe here in New England, 

Here in Vermont, it's going to be iffy. It seems like the door will be open for a series of weak cold fronts from the northwest starting the end of this week and going into August. But squirts of hot, humid air could also make it in between the fronts. And unlike the current cool spell, the air after each upcoming cold front won't be all that cold.

So, the consensus is for temperatures near or slightly above normal heading into early August, with near to perhaps slightly above normal precipitation. 

But that's just the broad brush. The devil is in the details, which we simply don't have. I almost guarantee some sort of surprise or two in that general weather pattern, but there's no telling what that might be. So we'll stay on our toes.

Kind Of A Stormy Vermont Sunday, New Wet Weekend Record Set. Then: More Rain, Cool, Then More Heat?

Dark green and yellow areas of this map are under
some risk of severe storms today, with yellow areas
at a slightly higher chance of severe weather. 

As of 7 a.m, this morning, it has officially rained today at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont.  

Not much rain, but enough to make this the 31st consecutive weekend with precipitation. That's a new record for consecutive wet and/or snowy weekends.

The bit of rain Burlington had early this morning is not the end of it.  More showers and storms are due today. In fact, there's still a chance of a severe thunderstorm or two today, primarily in southern Vermont. 

It's kind of a messy weather system with a sharp end to it. 

Usually, if you want severe storms, sunshine during the heat of the day helps destabilize the atmosphere, providing more lift for the strong updrafts that produce torrential downpours and strong thunderstorm wind gusts.

It'll be pretty cloudy today, so that ingredient is missing. However, the incoming cold front is more like one you'd see in the autumn than one in mid-summer. 

This autumnal style means there's a sharp temperature gradient involved. You usually don't see that in July. Winds aloft will be strong for this time of year.  South winds ahead of the cold front will collide with incoming north winds behind today's cold front. 

All that should fire up some pretty decent storms, or at least some downpours. Plus, there is some sun in southern Vermont, which will help prime the atmosphere, too. 

Scattered showers will continue this morning, then it appears a main band of showers and storms should enter northwestern Vermont around noon, give or take. 

The band of showers and storms should head northwest to southeast across Vermont during the early to mid afternoon, strengthening as it goes. 

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, we could have isolated instances of strong winds along and south of Route 2, and slightly more cases of potentially damaging winds along and south of Route 4.  The rest of central and southern New England is in that same boat.

Most places will be fine. But a few of us Vermonters will be dealing with toppled trees and power lines. Almost all the trouble should be near or south of Rutland and White River Junction.

Much like on Tuesday, there's an extremely low but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in southern Vermont and the rest of central New England.  That's not a big concern, since the chances are so low. But I'm throwing it out there to show that this cold front does mean business.

I also suppose a couple of the most intense and long lasting downpours could create a local issue with flash flooding in one or two spots today in Vermont. But if that happens, it will be really isolated, relatively minor and definitely not a statewide problem. 

Generally speaking Vermont should get a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain out of this with isolated higher amounts. 

COLD THEN HOT

As mentioned, this is an unusual cold front for July. It's more like something that would come through in September. (One of the reasons some storms might be so strong is because this front is out of season. An autumn cold front would not be interacting with such humid air from the south to boost the instability).

Anyway, by late afternoon, northern and probably central Vermont will be in the clear, with sunshine breaking out. There might be an isolated sprinkle left over, but nothing to worry about. Cool north winds will might make you want to grab a sweater if you're doing an evening outdoor barbecue or something like that. 

Monday will be a typical September day with sun and clouds alternating and afternoon highs just making it into the mid 60s and low 70s. Monday night temperatures will drop into the 40s with some low 50s in warmer valleys. This won't anything close to record cold, but still, we're not used to it.

But summer is not over,  that's for sure. 

As I described Friday, the "heat dome" which controls big summer heat waves in the United States, is migrating a little more toward the central U.S. But we're still prone to squirts of hot weather coming in from the west. It now looks like we'll have a sharp boost of heat and humidity late week. 

Wednesday should get into the 80s but the humidity will be reasonable. On Thursday, we have another possible shot at 90 degree temperatures, with oppressive humidity 

Another cold front should arrive by Friday, but that one will be a typically weak, July style version, so it will stay quite warm even after the front goes by.  The changing weather pattern looks like it will still favor additional mostly weak cold fronts in late July and early August.

That means we'll continue with mostly warm summer weather, but on most days the really intense heat would stay to out south and west, with just an occasional oppressive or broiling day thrown in.  

Trump Administration Feeling Heat On Texas Flood Response

The grim search for bodies continue after
the July 4 catastrophic floods in Texas,
as our early look at Trump era FEMA
response is not great, 

 The Trump team is finding out it's harder to manage major disasters than they thought.

And the public is learning why a fully staffed Federal Emergency Management Agency might not be such a bad idea after all. 

Let the state's handle it, FEMA isn't necessary,  the Trumpers said.  This Texas flood will manage itself, they must have thought. Or at least disappear in the next news cycle, so it won't be a problem for them anymore. 

We know that if something doesn't directly benefit Trump or his minions, it's not worth dealing with it. So to their minds, why mess with that Texas mud pit?

But when disasters get this big and stay under the media spotlight like the Texas floods have done, it gets harder and harder to control the narrative.    

At last check, at least 134 people were confirmed dead  in the Texas flooding   Huge swaths of the Texas Hill Country are devastated, with houses washed away, others with flood damage up to the ceilings 

The Trump folks are publicly patting themselves on the back about what a good job they're doing with the Texas flood, but the evidence suggests otherwise. 

CALLS UNANSWERED

The New York Times on July 11 reported the now-really short-staffed FEMA was answering very few calls for help after the Texas disasters. Answer rates to the FEMA disaster assistance hotline fell to roughly the 35 percent rant on July 6 and just 16 percent on July 7. 

As USA Today reports: 

"The lack of responsiveness happened because the agency had fired hundreds of contractors at call centers, according to a person briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal matters.

The agency laid off the contractors on July 5 after their contracts expired and were not extended according to the documents and the person briefed on the matter.

Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary, who has instituted a new requirement that she personally approve expenses over $100,000, did not renew the contracts until Thursday, five days after the contract expired. FEMA is part of Department of Homeland Security."

It appears to me ICE Barbie, as I call her, did not worry about this mess-up until it appeared there might be a public relations problem brewing. 

ICE Barbie, who is much better at cosplaying and posing for the media, naturally went on TV.  Here's her quote from her appearance on NBC's 'Meet the Press with Kristen Welker."

"No employees were off of work....... Every one of them was answering calls, so false reporting, fake news and it's discouraging. It's discouraging that during this time, when we have such a loss of life and so many people's lives have been turned upside down, that people are playing politics with this because the response time was immediate."

Notice the careful wording.

A lot of employees had been let go. The ones that were left were answering calls. I'm sure every one of the few remaining did answer calls, as Noem said. She just left out the part that a bunch of people who could have helped handle the big call volume weren't there anymore. 

Any criticism is supposedly "playing politics."  The crisis in Texas is far from over, so you'd think prodding an agency to actually help people is the definition of caring about "so many people's lives."

MICROMANAGING

Noem's micromanaging - reviewing any expenditure over $100,000 - also slowed the response to the Texas flood in other ways. As CNN reported:

"For FEMA, where disaster response costs routinely soar into the billions as the agency contracts with on-the-ground crews, officials say that threshold is essentially 'pennies' requiring sign-off for relatively small expenditures.

In essence, they say the order has stripped the agency of much of its autonomy at the very moment its help is needed most.  

'We were operating under a clear set of guidance: lean forward, be prepared, anticipate what the state needs, and be ready to deliver it,' a longtime FEMA official told CNN. 'That is not as clear of an intent for us at the moment.'"

This for instance meant FEMA couldn't pre-position Urban Search and Rescue crews from a network of teams stationed regionally around the country. Noem reportedly didn't authorize FEMA's deployment of  the Urban Search and Rescue teams until more than 72 hours after the flooding started.

For their part, the Noem team used other search and rescue assets and didn't need this Urban Search and Rescue Team. 

Said a DHS spokesperson: 

"FEMA is shifting from a bloated, DC-centric dead weight to a lean, deployable disaster force that empowers state actors to provide relief for their citizens......The old processes are being replaced because they failed American emergencies for decades."

The spokesperson has it exactly backwards. Until now, FEMA has been praised for its rapid response I'm the immediate emergency in the hours and days after the disaster strikes.

UNEVEN DIRECT RESPONSE

The very valid criticism of FEMA comes in the recovery phase, where applying for assistance and money for rebuilding roads, other infrastructure, homes, and businesses, and girded for the next disaster, always seemed to become a horrible, bureaucratic slog. 

That's where the FEMA reform coulda, shoulda happened. 

FEMA has ultimately arrived in Texas, and they do seem to be trying to help. Parts of the old, better FEMA infrastructure are still there. At least for now.  

Victims are being encouraged to contact FEMA, despite the phone issues to start claims. The agency has set up a help center and has started processing claims. 

Some Texas flood victims said that FEMA has been helpful so far, which is a glimmer of encouragement here.

But private and church groups are leading the way, searching for victims, mucking out damaged homes and setting up field kitchens for people whose houses have washed away or otherwise have been left uninhabitable. 

Still the Texas FEMA stumbles are disconcerting. 

I doubt FEMA and the Trump administration will change course much, but the bad Texas disaster response is certainly being noticed. 

"Heck of a job, Secretary Noem," the Houston Chronicle editorial board sarcastically wrote. The remark is a throwback to former President George W. Bush's notorious and highly inaccurate praise for then-FEMA Director Michael Brown as New Orleans flooded during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Several Democratic members of Congress demanded an investigation into Noem's response to the disaster. Rep. Ed Markey, D-Massachusetts called for her resignation. None of this will happen, given the Republican fealty to whatever Trump and his minions do, but it's notable. 

The irony is that Noem, acting FEMA director David Richardson and the Trump administration is undoing what had been badly needed FEMA reforms after the Katrina debacle.

Speaking of Richardson, he didn't make any public statements and appearances for more than a week after the floods. Usually, FEMA directors are splattered themselves all over the news when there's big disasters, giving overviews of the federal response to these calamities. 

Richardson, who famously seemed unaware that the U.S. has a hurricane season, does not have five or more years of disaster management experience. The post-Katrina reforms require FEMA directors to have such experience, but the Trump administration is getting around that by keeping him as the so-called "acting" director. 

Another indication how unseriously the Trumpsters take disaster responses

And remember, this terrible flood happened in a red state.  Trump is the probably the most sinister transactionally motivated person in the world. He'll help his supporters until he doesn't need them anymore. 

But he'll attack his perceived enemies and try everything he can not to help.  What if the Texas disaster happened in a blue state?

We got a taste of that during and after the immense and deadly California wildfires back in January.  

Trump threatened to withhold disaster aid to California unless the state enacted voter ID laws. Never mind that those ID laws have nothing to do with wildfires. That casts doubt on whether he will approve $40 billion California Gov Gavin Newsom has requested to help pay for fire recovery costs.  

Meanwhile, other disasters have hit since Texas and more loom, Wildfire season is ramping up.  Forecasts point toward weather conditions in the coming days and weeks across much of the West that favor large fires. 

Hurricane season has started. The big ones usually hit soon - mostly in August and September. Those flash floods keep hitting all kinds of communities in the United States.

We've known for months that Trump and his loyal band of sycophants are not inclined to help their fellow Americans. Again, because there's nothing in it for them. No profits, no monetary gain. And gawd forbid any of this crew to help disaster victims because it's the right thing to do.

Trump, according to numerous reports, at least once called fallen military service members "losers and suckers."

I think he believes disaster victims are losers and suckers, too.  

Weekend Vermont Forecast Has Gotten More Complicated, With Downpours, Severe Weather Threat Sunday

A perfect summer day Friday at Taylor Park in downtown
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for the rest of this
weekend has suddenly gotten more complicated. 

 This was supposed to be a nice weekend in here in Vermont.  A couple days ago, we thought there might be a couple light showers Saturday night and Sunday morning, that's it. Otherwise, it would be mostly just sunshine and low humidity.  

Well, as everything goes these days, Ma Nature has thrown in a surprise. The weather forecast has suddenly gotten more complicated. And much wetter.  

Suddenly, our oversight tonight and Sunday will feature unexpectedly high humidity, the risk of severe storms in some areas and locally heavy downpours. 

This isn't going to be an end of the world type storm. Most places will just see rain and thunder. But we're now virtually guaranteed to break the record for the most consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Burlington needs at least a trace of rain by midnight Sunday to break that record. Current forecasts call for roughly a half inch of rain there late tonight and Sunday. 

TODAY  

Today is still going to be gorgeous Vermont summer day, with sunshine and low humidity and warm temperatures rising to the low 80s. I would rate today just a mini-step down from Friday, which I will regard as the most perfect summer day we've had this year.

Afternoon temperatures Friday were comfortably warm in the 70s.  The sky was a beautiful deep blue, without a hint of that annoying wildfire smoke we keep getting. That sky was decorated by puffy clouds. The hills and mountains gleamed their rich summer green at us, and a breeze kept the summer flowers dancing in the gardens.

Today will be pretty much the same, except it will be a touch warmer. And there might be some increasing clouds later in the afternoon and into the evening, but there's no worries about rain.

It'll be a perfect day to get outside and enjoy a Green Mountain summer. Especially since tomorrow is now looking problematic. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

An approaching cold front now appears likely to grab some higher humidity from the south. A conglomeration of weather disturbance will come in from the west at the same time, adding some lift and energy to the atmosphere. 

That's a recipe for rain and thunderstorms.  That there will be a complicated mix of very small bits and details in this system adds some questions to the forecast. It's unclear how extensive the rain and thunderstorms will become, but now we know it'll definitely rain. And many of us will hear thunder. 

 The first band of showers will come through after midnight to around or just after dawn.  Some of the rain could contain heavy downpours and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

On Sunday, you'll notice a return of high humidity Sunday, at least for awhile, although actually temperatures won't get all that warm, with highs in the 70s to low 80s south.

The door is open for possible severe storms in much of New England.

That severe risk will run from southern Vermont, along and south of Route 4, and on into the rest of southern New England, and most of  southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.   

Straight line winds and microbursts are the main threat.  As usual, only a few places in the risk zone would actually see a severe storm. Most places won't be so bad.

How many severe storms form depends a lot on how much sun comes out behind the initial band of storms early Sunday and how quickly a sharp cold front comes in from the northwest. 

Northern areas look to be too far removed from the best instability, so they should be safe from severe weather  Plus, a sharp cold front will hit northern areas first, putting an end to the rains by afternoon.  In fact, if northern Vermont is lucky, they could see a sharp drop in humidity and clearing skies by mid to late afternoon. It all depends on the timing of everything. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center also has a marginal, low level risk of flash flooding from this, but most meteorologists think we won't 'see enough rain to create trouble.  There will be some torrential downpours, but the storms will be moving along too fast to dump excessive amounts of rain in any one spot. 

A few places could see an inch or more of rain out of this,  but most of us will see something in the neighborhood of a half inch. Note that since the ingredients to this system are complicated, results may vary. We could still see another surprise or two out of this. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

This still looks like it's shaping up to be at least one of the coolest stretches of July weather we've seen in several years. 

You'll wake up to a cool Monday morning, then highs will only get to the low 70s at best in many locations. Some northern areas might not get out of the 60s. All that is a good ten degrees cooler than  normal for this time of year. 

Monday night will get into the 40s in many areas, but probably stay in the low 50s in warmer valleys. The cool high pressure system should stall briefly near us, keeping us sunny, dry and relatively cool on Tuesday. (Highs in the 70s)

We'll finally see a return southerly air flow starting Wednesday, so it should turn noticeably warmer and somewhat more humid for the end of the week.  At this point, it doesn't look like it'll get into the 90s again, but, as usual, no guarantees!  

Cool Summer Blast Of Air Relieves Us From Heat, New Weather Pattern Could Keep That Going

Storm damage in Swanton Thursday. The cold front that
caused isolated wind damage in Vermont has
introduced radically cooler, drier air into the state,
a welcome change from recent heat, humidity 

 The expected cold front came through last night as expected, and we woke up to refreshing air

The humidity is gone and we can actually go outside again. 

We lucked out with the severe weather, too.  The thunderstorms didn't really get that bad until they reached Quebec and western Maine. There were tornado warnings in Maine, and damage from those storms will be investigated for possible actual tornadoes,

Flash flooding and wind damage was reported in Quebec, too.

There were only a small handful of minor damage reports in Vermont. Perhaps the worst was a collapsed tree I encountered in Swanton that took down some wires and pulled some siding off a house. Elsewhere, a couple other trees and branches fell in Swanton and Alburgh.  Another tree fell in Royalton. That is apparently it.

Before the storms, we did end up making it to 92 degrees in Burlington Thursday, which gives us more hot weather statistics to chew on.

A heat wave in Burlington is considered three days in a row with 90 or above, so we did that. This is the sixth consecutive year with an official heat wave in Burlington. That ties the record with 1944-49 for the most consecutive years with heat waves. 

It's now been 90 degrees ten times in Burlington so far this year.  We're now up to six consecutive year with ten or more 90 degree days. Before this, there had never been more than four consecutive years with that many 90 degree days,  bad in 1946-1949

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE

The "heat dome" strong high pressure that created hot weather in the United States, was in the eastern United States, making it easy to get hot up here in Vermont. 

That heat dome looks like it is slowly migrating to the middle of the United States and showing signs of strengthening. That change indicates large parts of the U.S. are in for brutal and long lasting heat.

But likely not for us in Vermont, though it sort of depends upon  how this thing sets up. Most of the time, when the heat dome is in the middle of the nation, it sets up a northwest flow here in New England. 

Usually, that means some squirts of warm, humid air keep trying to work in and often briefly succeed, But that northwest flow also brings in occasional cold fronts that cut that hot air off at the pass.

In the coming week or two or three, we'll need to see to what extent that northwest flow develops. If some lingering high pressure stays in the East, the cold fronts won't zoom through as much and won't bring lots of refreshing air. 

If the heat dome really centers itself over, say the Great Plains, that means the second half of July here in Vermont could be a fair amount cooler than the first.   

The drawback to all this is the northern periphery of these heat domes often have frequent clusters of strong storms and heavy rain. That seems to be inevitable in the coming week or two in the northern Plains and maybe Great Lakes. I'm sure we'll continue to hear of severe weather and flash flooding in those areas of the nation. 

For us here in New England, the storm prospects over the next couple of weeks are iffy. 

 If the northwest flow is steep, the strong storms and heavy rains will pass us by to the south and west, hitting the southeastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic States. We'd be cut off from access to the really humid air and just get lighter showers and thunderstorms as the cold front goes by.

If the northwest flow is more westerly than north, we could share in these heavy bouts of rain storms. Again, we won't 'know until we're until right before each batch of storms develops. All we can do is forecast the short term, which I've got next.

MUCH COOLER FEW DAYS

The cold front that came through last night had an autumnal feel. It was accompanied and followed by gusty winds, which is uncharacteristic of a July front.

Any lingering winds this morning will quickly diminish for a gorgeous day. We'll enjoy sunshine, much cooler highs in the 70s and very low humidity. Dew points will keep crashing into the 40s, which is rock bottom for July. 

Overnight, actual temperatures across Vermont will drop into the very comfortable 50s.  Cooler hollows will be in the 40s. In cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, the forecast low Saturday morning is 39 degrees.

We'll briefly have some return flow of warmer air Saturday. The humidity will stay low, but highs should get into the low 80s in most places across Vermont.  

But a reinforcing cold front is on its way. A weak storm should pass over or near Vermont later Saturday night. Some light rainfall is quite likely. If Burlington sees at least a trace of rain Saturday night, which is almost certain, we will have had 31 consecutive weekends with precipitation, a new record. 

Temperatures will stay cool-ish Sunday then even chillier air will really flood in. Monday will feel downright autumnal. Highs Monday will only be in the 65 to 72 degree range for most of us. Monday night, temperatures for much of Vermont could reach the 40s. 

This could end up being the strongest July cool spell in a decade. By historical standards, this won't be unusual at all but recent Julys have been unusually warm, thanks in large part to climate change. So it will seem odd. 

Tuesday will be on the cool side, too, but it will warm back up and turn more humid again as the week wears on. It probably won't be as bad as recent days, but it will feel like summer again. 

Beyond the end of next week, who knows?

 

Early Afternoon Vermont Storm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center
highlighted the area in purple as the most likely
zone for scattered severe thunderstorms, and possibly
even a brief tornado spinup. Although there's a low
but not zero chance of such a spin up in Vermont,
tornadoes are slightly more likely in northwestern 
Maine of all places, and southern Quebec. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were already starting to break out in and around Vermont as of 1 p.m. as the air destabilizes south of a warm front and east of a cold front. 

By the time you read this, much of Vermont and parts of New Hampshire and Maine, and maybe some other areas will be under a severe thunderstorm watch. 

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a statement highlighting northern New England as a potential hot spot for severe storms this afternoon and early evening. 

Very moist air - gawd that humidity! - and an approaching little disturbance and a cold front, increasing winds aloft, combined with a low pressure system in southwestern Quebec are all doing their job to get those storms going, as we expected from earlier forecasts.

The timing of all this is perfect - afternoon and early evening. Those are the hours in which the strong July sun further destabilizes the air, ultimately making the storms more powerful.

There was some question as to whether we'd have enough late morning and early afternoon sun to prime the severe thunderstorm pump. but we've seen some big breaks in the clouds, especially early the afternoon.

This has all boosted temperatures well into the 80s. Even flirting with 90 in a couple spots. All that heat, combined with the already-mentioned humidity, is a recipe for big storms. 

Some of these storms will develop into at least brief supercells. Those are those rotating, powerful thunderstorms that can produce ferocious wind gusts, incredible rain rates and maybe tornadoes. 

The United States location with the greatest chance of seeing a couple tornadoes today is northwestern Maine. Go figure. Southern Quebec is also under the gu n for those twisters - especially those expansive flat areas outside of Montreal.

It's plausible northern Vermont could see a brief, weak tornado, but the chances are lower here than in southern Quebec or those parts of Maine. 

I'm pretty sure, though, that we will see scattered instances of straight line wind damage.

Not everyone will see a severe storm. Including in central and northern Vermont, where the risk is highest. There will only be scattered instances of damage. 

But be weather aware, and have a ready source to receive severe storm warnings quickly. If you get a warning you'll need to get into a sturdy building away from windows until it passes. 

As of 1:30 p.m., storms were rapidly developing, but most of them so far seemed to be in southern Quebec. Still, development is happening everywhere. And will increase as the afternoon wears on. The atmosphere is looking agitated, with storms seemingly forming pretty easily and quickly.  

Keep an eye to those skies this afternoon, folks!

Another Day Of 90 Degree Vermont Heat Wednesday; Possible Severe Weather Today, Then.... Ahhhhhhh!

Best chance of severe storms today is in northern
New England (yellow shaded area). Southern
Quebec might actually see a couple tornadoes, and
there is an extremely low but not zero chance
of a brief spinup in far northern Vermont. 

The high temperature in Burlington Wednesday reached 93 degrees, making it the fifth time this month and the ninth this year so far in which it got into the 90s. 

We're having another summer in which hot weather is overstaying its Vermont welcome.

In this age of climate change, 90 degree weather has definitely gotten more common.

I took a look at records from Burlington regarding hot weather. Out of the past 125 Julys, only 29 of them, including this year, had five or more days with 90 degree temperatures. Eleven of those Julys have happened just since 2010. 

There's a slim chance Burlington could make it to 90 degrees again today, but clouds, showers and thunderstorms might prevent that. 

But you never know. Of course, we're only halfway through the month, and I don't know whether it will hit 90 again this month or even this year. 

We've already had nine days with 90 degree heat this year, including the four such days we had in June.   Each of the past eleven years have had eight or more days with 90 degree temperatures in Burlington. 

 On average over the past century, the average number of such days annually is close to six.  And that average has been skewed upward slightly by the large number of hot days over the past decade or so. 

HEAT AND STORMS  

Today, we'll need to continue worrying about oppressive high temperatures and humidity, and we're going to throw the risk of severe storms into the mix. Those storms are for a good cause, though. More on that in a minute.

The low temperature in Burlington this morning was 80 degrees. That would tie the record for highest low temperature for any date. However, it'll get well below 80 degrees by midnight tonight, so the record won't in fact end up being tied.

Still this muggy morning portends an another awful days. Despite clouds and some scattered showers and isolated storms out there this morning, we'll  have no trouble reaching well into the 80s today, with some spot 90 degree readings, especially in southeast Vermont. The humidity will remain sky high all day.

But there is a cold front coming our way.  That will interact with the heat and humidity to produce some thunderstorms this afternoon. As always, they'll tend to be hit and miss, with some towns getting nailed, others getting "meh" type storms and others getting practically nothing at all.

The best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms is in central and northern Vermont (and northern parts of New York, New Hampshire and Maine).  NOAA has these areas under a "slight" or level 2 on a five point risk scale of severe thunderstorms. Further south, there might only be an isolated strong to severe storm or two.

Northern areas are a little more under the gun because they're closer to a low pressure system that is support the cold front. That low pressure puts a little spin in the atmosphere. There could even be a few supercells, though those are more likely in southern Quebec. Environment Canada has already issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southern Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City today. 

The main threat from these storms are damaging straight line winds. There is a still a very low, but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in northern or central Vermont.  But again, the chances of any twisters is more likely in southern Quebec.  

There is still a marginal chance of a local instance of flash flooding or two. With all this humidity, the rainfall with these storms will be absolutely torrential. A saving grace is these storms won't be able to stall over one particular spot for very long, which minimizes the chance that inches upon inches of rain would fall. 

I'd stay weather aware, but the chances of you seeing a tornado are exceptionally remote. But if you get a severe thunderstorm warning, definitely take shelter in a sturdy building. Those winds can really cause damage even with no tornado.

BIG RELIEF

When you go to bed this evening, it might still feel awfully humid, with or without the storms. By the time you get up Friday morning, you will notice a HUGE change in the air.

The temperature at dawn will be down in the upper 50s north, 60s south. But the humidity will have crashed. 

The dew point is near 70 today, with is oppressive. By tomorrow morning that dew point will be in the 50s, which is soooo comfortable. The last time we had truly comfortable, dry air in Vermont was July 5, so we were really overdue for this relief. 

 During the day tomorrow, the dew point will stay in the refreshing upper 40s and 50s, with highs only in the 70s. With maybe near 80 in some of the warmer valleys. 

The whole weekend will be on the comfortable side. Saturday looks gorgeous, with highs in the 76 to 83 degrees.  That'll come with sunshine and that low humidity. 

A reinforcing cold front looks like it will come through Saturday night with a few showers. Maybe even a rumble of thunder.

 If it does rain, especially where things are measured in Burlington,  it would make it the 31st weekend in a row with precipitation, which will be a new record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow.

Sunday and Monday look like they will stay refreshingly cool-ish with humidity staying on the low side.  It does look like some very warm air and humidity will return during the middle or end of next week, but I don't know yet how bad it will get or how long it might last.  

A BIG Break Coming In Vermont Heat, Humidity, Storm Threat Siege

Another muggy morning dawns on my mid-summer
perennial gardens in St. Albans, Vermont. Much 
better air is finally due around here on Friday,
but we have heat and storm threats before then.

Yesterday was the eighth day already this summer that Burlington, Vermont made it to 90 degrees, so we're already ahead of normal for the entire year with those kinds of temperatures. 

It used to be the average number of 90 degree days was half that. Now, I see the average being bandied about as six, as such hot days have increased in recent years.

MORE HEAT

Today is a lock in Burlington - and many other towns in Vermont, for another day with temperatures above 90 degrees. It'll even be a little hotter than yesterday, 

The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys. If you combine today's heat and high humidity, the air will feel like it's in the mid and upper 90s. 

The rest of Vermont doesn't quite qualify for an official heat advisory, but it will feel horrible out there. You'll need to take it easy. 

The good news is the smoke and haze from wildfire smoke from yesterday is a little thinner. The bad news is it's still in the air, though. So the combination of a  little air pollution and the hot, humid air won't be so great on the lungs. 

CHANGES AFOOT

If you're tired of this weather, I've got a little more good news. A cold front that would end the heat is looking like it has a little more oomph than previously thought, and it's coming at us a little more quickly that originally planned. 

Before we get there, it's going to be hot and noisy.  Very typically, something called a pre-frontal trough often comes through before the actual cold front. That pre-frontal trough looks like it will come through after midnight tonight, 

So on top of the stuffy, humid air you'll deal with if you don't have air conditioning, you might be woken up early in the morning by thunder or the roar of a downpour on the roof, Not everyone will bet that, but some of us will.

The clusters of storms will move fairly slowly, so there's a low risk of local flash flooding. If anything happens, it will be isolated.

There's a slight chance Burlington could make it to 90 again tomorrow, but clouds and storm threats will probably keep things in the humid 80s. 

The actual cold front looks like it wants to come through in the late afternoon or evening. The timing is such that we might have another round of severe thunderstorms 

It looks to be the typical thing. Hit and miss. A few towns will get blasted by damaging winds and hail and torrential rains. Many of us will get a garden variety storm or just some rain. A few places will get nothing at all.

One literal twist in this is the low pressure system attached to the cold front will past by not far to our northwest, in southern Ontario and southern Quebec. This little low pressure system will add a bit of spin to the atmosphere. If that happens, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center suggests, there would be a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado with this.

That type of chance happens two or three times a summer, it seems, so there you go.

For now, there's a lowest level marginal chance of severe storms and flash floods in Vermont. I suspect they might eventually slightly boost the chances of severe storms from "marginal" to "slight" which would be level two out of five on the risk scale. Stay tuned

WHAT COMES NEXT

The dew point, a rough measure of how humid the air feels, has been hovering in the mid 60s to low 70s for days. That -  as you know - is oppressive as hell.

You're going to love Friday and Saturday. Dew points Friday and Saturday are forecast to crash down into the 50s, which is quite comfortable. It will stay warm but certainly not hot. Highs Friday will be in the 70s, with a couple spot low 80s here and there. 

Friday night's temperatures should drop into the 50s, so fling open those windows and let those cool night breezes in! Saturday looks sunny, the humidity will stay low and temperatures should pop back up into the low 80s. A Chamber of Commerce weather day, at least we hope!

We have an uncertain chance of showers on Sunday, we're not sure about that yet. But if it does rain a little in Burlington Sunday, that'll break the record for most consecutive weekends with rain at 31,  It's fun to see record broken, so I actually hope we get a sprinkle or two Sunday. Maybe before dawn or after dusk would be nice. 

American Stupidity: Why Did Family Go Hiking In Blasting Phoenix Heat Wave

Hiking trails around Phoenix, Arizona do look lovely,
but what possessed parents in a family group to
take kids on a hike there on a 110+ degree day?

 You don't want to be outside for any length of time this time of year in Phoenix. 

That will seem obvious, given that Phoenix is probably the hottest major American city, at least in terms of temperature.  So anybody in their right mind would demur when somebody suggest a nice long hike in that weather, right?   

So why the living hell did, on June 29 a group of five adults and six children, mostly between the ages of 5 and 11, set off on a hike? They started around 10 a.m. and buy noon, they needed help. Desperately.  

A tactical rescue team was dispatched to the Holbert Trail, where the group was. "We basically dispatched the equivalent of a first alarm mountain rescue. We had upwards of five mountain rescue teams who responded. That's a lot of resources," Phoenix Fire Department Captain Rob McDade told AZFamily.com

"There's no reason to be on trails at 10 a.m. on an extreme heat day like this. Especially with younger children," McDade added, putting on his Captain Obvious hat.

I wonder if the Darwin Awards have a division for entire families instead of just winnings for individuals. Although I'd give the award to just the adults in the group. The ages of the children were 3, 5, 9, 10, 11 and 15. 

 The family also endangered the rescuers who had to go up and get them. The heat surely affected them, too, though I'm happy to report the rescuers survived the ordeal. At least until somebody else gets stupid in the Arizona desert summer. 

 Other members of the Phoenix fire department also panned the group.

"Trying to get the family out is very commendable but hiking on a day of extreme heat ad going around well-placed sigs that say 'This trail is closed,' is one of the worst decisions to make," Capt. Todd Keller of the Phoenix Police Department told the Arizona Republic. "The overwhelming feeling is not surprise, but disappointment."

Aside from common sense,  the family was not supposed to be there at all.  

The city of Phoenix closed most municipal trails, including the Colbert Trail that day because of the extreme heat. The city typically closes their trails from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on particularly hot days. 

The high temperature the day the family was rescued reached 114 degrees with an early morning low of a still sweltering 87 degrees. The normal June 29 high in Phoenix is 107, with a record high of 119.

So by any measure June 29 was a ridiculously hot day in Phoenix. 

Phoenix has a city ordinance that allows them to cite people who go into closed parks. Those convicted face a fine of $50 or more and eight hours of community service. 

 As azfamily.com reports:  

"You can face charges for leaving a child in a hot car, you could face charges for taking them hiking in the heat. Child crime experts say parents could be charged for neglect or abuse for knowingly bringing their children on hiking trails in extreme heat."

The Arizona Republic says people have died on Phoenix area trails when take foolhardy summer hikes. 

Ultimately, the hikers were not cited.  The city released this statement regarding the issue:

"While the city retains the authority to cite individuals for entering a closed park or trail, health and safety is the priority during an emergency rescue. The objective is to get individuals to safety off the mountain and connected to medical care as quickly as possible. No one should ever be deterred from calling for help out of concern or receiving a citation"

OK, fine, but inquiring minds want to know what possessed this group to go hiking in the first place. Alas, I could find no evidence of anybody from the group explaining what happened.  

I also, wonder - and hope - whether child protective services is looking into the matter. 

Climate And Environmental Pessimism In Vermont/U.S: Heat, Smoke, Floods, Invasives And More

This gloomy thunderstorm cloud, photographed Sunday
matched my mood Monday evening as I contemplated
bad weather, climate change, and environmental threats

I fell into a negative mood last evening. 

I was sitting outside, sweating in the tropical Vermont humidity, a few hours after an alleged "cold front" had passed through town where I am, not far from the Canadian border. 

I'd tried to do some needed yard work, but it was too sultry to get much done. I figured I should just sit down and enjoy the day lilies blooming around me. 

 Mid-summer flowers usually improve my mood. Last evening, those flowers, bright as they are, weren't lifting my spirits as much as I'd like. 

Sure, Vermont was lucky with the weather once again on Monday. A few places around the state saw some strong storms, but there wasn't really any damage, no real flooding this time. That was good news.  

But as usual these days, my social media feed last evening was filled with news of new weather emergencies, probably fueled in large parts by climate change. 

A tropical system was brewing near Florida. But once again, it produced news of another one in 1,000 year rainfall event. This time it was around Plant City, Florida, which managed to receive 10 inches of rain in just three hours. Funny how those one in one thousand year flood events keep happening like, every hour. 

I continued on, doom scrolling with my iPhone, coughing a bit in the Vermont air that had once again become smoky from giant, distant wildfires in Canada. I saw we're under another air quality alert. So much for pristine Green Mountain air. 

That air quality alert will stay in effect through at least today.  It's going to be another hot, humid one, too. Health officials are telling us that the combination of sultry, tropical air, the smoke and all that means we should once again limit outdoor activity, especially if you have pre-existing health issues. 

More weather updates on my phone. New York City just had its second wettest hour on record, with 2.07 inches, half its normal monthly installment of rain.  The Central Park downpour was second only to the mega-former Hurricane Ida floods in the Big Apple in 2021.  

Subway service was suspended, roads were under water, cars were trapped, flights were delayed, What a mess!

In neighboring New Jersey, as much as six inches of rain fell in a matter of hours. Flash flood warnings were blaring in most of the Mid-Atlantic states. Parts of the New Jersey Turnpike were really rivers. Fast flowing water raced through homes and businesses in Plainfield, New Jersey, and other towns.  The governor of New Jersey declared a state of emergency. 

Emergency? Yeah, no kidding. 

Climate change is really turbocharging summer downpours. As I've written previously, it's the summer of floods in the U.S.. and that shows no signs of change.  

Day lilies glow in the hazy morning sun today in St
Albans, Vermont. Despite worries like climate change
and the environment, there's lots to be grateful for, 

I gazed up my phone at the yard as it was growing dark.  A couple fireflies blinked half-heartedly in the humid dusk. 

There used to be a lot more fireflies. I don't know whether this is a one-summer lull at my house or something else. But I do know firefly  numbers are declining. 

I used to enjoy the bats that once swooped around my deck at dusk in the summer. They're gone, too, decimated by something called white nose syndrome, a fungus that kills them, 

My crowded perennial gardens used to buzz with bees. This summer, only a few have been buzzing around. Was it this year's rainy weather or something else? I know bee populations are crashing, mostly because of our use of pesticides and a disease spreading mite that came from overseas in the 1980s. 

Global trade is great on our pocketbooks, but not on the environment.  All kinds of invasive are killing things we love.  Giant chestnut trees were lost at the turn of the 20th century Our big gracious big elms in the mid-century to dutch elm disease.

I glanced upward last night in the gathering dusk around my house at the nearby dead trees. They were deceased white ash trees, decimated by the emerald ash borer. Those dead ash trees are everywhere now, giving a winter look in spots to our oppressively hot, smoky Vermont summer. 

Next on the list potentially is our beloved sugar maples, central to Vermont's identity. Asian longhorn beetles are spreading in the U.S., and could eventually create real, disheartening trouble to our maple syrup industry.

I turned again to the weather forecast before giving up for the evening. We'll have a couple days that reach at least 90 degrees in many locations today and tomorrow.  Great beach days, right? Despite the smoke?

Well, some beaches are closed due to algae blooms. And Burlington has an unfortunate mishap at the sewage treatment plant, and that closed beaches around that city. 

By Thursday, the risk of showers and thunderstorms returns with the approach of a cold front. 

That might be a reason to lift my spirits.   The next cold front looks like it means business. We could actually have some delightfully dry and seasonably cool air by later Friday and Saturday.  A reason to go on living! 

I've always been fascinated and embrace the weather, the outdoors, nature. Sure, I get gloomy sometimes thinking about what's going on.  With climate change. Environment trouble. Invasives.  

The solution, of course, is to not let the negativity that I was experiencing last evening to linger. Do something about climate change and the environment to the best of your ability. There's only so much we can contribute, of course. 

Most importantly we need to love what we still have. And if you think about it, that's still plenty. 

Which brings us to this morning. Songbirds, as usual, were my sunrise happy alarm clock. I ventured outdoors.   The view from my house of Lake Champlain and the Adirondacks beyond was obscured by smoke. 

But those day lilies happily danced in the early morning breeze and hazy sunshine, this time doing their job and making me smile. 

The woods around my house had that beautiful, soothing deep green mid-summer lushness it always has in July. The hydrangeas were decked out in their early season white blooms, flecked with delicate pink. A couple of dragonflies did their helicopter-like aerial acrobatics, expertly removing annoying biting insects from the yard. 

Despite everything, there's still a lot of beauty out there. Enjoy it. For your own sanity. 

The Usual For Vermont These Days: Humidity, Storms, Wildfire Smoke, But Where Will The Worst Of It Hit?

A menacing thunderstorm with great structure approaching
Georgia, Vermont last evening. Despite appearance, the
storm wasn't severe. Storms that came through parts of
Vermont Sunday were relatively tame, so no problems
with wind damage or floods were reported. 

 It's another humid morning out there in Vermont among many humid morning we've already seen this summer. 

There's more on the way, so that will be a familiar topic. So, too, will be the risk of storms, local flash flooding. Plus our old friend wildfire smoke is returning too. Oh, joy! 

Someday, we'll have cool, dry, clean air, but not too soon I'm afraid.

There is good news to report. None of the showers and storms that came through Vermont yesterday and last evening were severe, even if they were accompanied by menacing looking clouds. 

Some of the storms knocked down a few trees and power lines in northern New York, but none of those storms caused trouble once they crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Those storms kept their flooding issues west and north of Vermont, too.  We was a flash flood warning for a time in part of the Adirondacks. And further west, there was substantial flash flooding in central New York, especially around Newark Valley, New York, southeast of Ithaca. 

Flash flooding was also reported around the Montreal metro area. Up to three inches of rain in a short time flooded basements and highways, cut power and caused flight delays at the city's airports. 

We have a new weather record to report, too. At least a tie.  Burlington received a little rain Sunday, just 0.16 inches. But that's enough to have made this past weekend the 30th in a row with at least some precipitation.  That ties the record for most consecutive weekends with at least some rain or snow in Burlington. 

STORMS/FLOOD POTENTIAL

The additional good news - for Vermont anyway - is that if we do see any flash flooding from additional storms today those instances will be pretty isolated. 

The more substantial flood trouble will be to our south, most in the Mid-Atlantic region. Down by Washington DC, Philadelphia, New Jersey and that area, there's a serious risk of real flood trouble today.  

While we will have thunderstorms in Vermont today they're also unlikely to be severe.

One thing that's helping is the weather front that will be driving today's storms is moving a bit faster than expected. It's technically a cold front, but unlike most cold fronts it doesn't get any cooler or much less humid behind it. 

Showers and thunderstorms seen erupting late
Sunday afternoon looking west from Georgia, Vermont. 

But the front does have a punch of drier air higher up in the atmosphere, and that will help suppress showers and  thunderstorms in northwestern Vermont, which got the most rain yesterday. 

 I suspect areas north of Route 2 and west of the Green Mountains should be done with the shower and storm risk by mid-afternoon at the latest. 

We'll still have to watch through the day for potential isolated instances of flash flooding in the Northeast Kingdom, parts of which are still recovering from last week's flood. 

If we do have any flash flooding today - remember, that's just an if - far southern Vermont will be the most likely place. They had some pretty heavy downpours Saturday. And today's storm and downpour threat will last all day into the early evening down there. 

Do note that almost everybody in Vermont will get much less than an inch of rain today. It will just be a few pinpoint locations that really get hit with the downpours. 

SMOKE

Those wildfires in central Canada, after simmering down for a time, have really perked up again. Those fires have also spread into Ontario.  

Smoke from the fires has been choking the Upper Midwest for a few days now. This weather front coming into Vermont today will help pull some of that smoke into our area starting later today and continuing at least through tomorrow and probably beyond.

You'll notice the haze tomorrow for sure. The air quality will probably not be all that great either. Especially since it will be combined with the expected heat and humidity, the smoke could be a problem for people with health issues. So you'll want to take it easy.  People with asthma will want to have their stuff together in case of an attack

HEAT/HUMIDITY

Despite the sun being dimmed a bit from the smoke, a burst of hot weather is likely Tuesday, Wednesday and maybe Thursday.  Warmer valley could reach 90 degrees all three days. The hottest day looks like it will be Wednesday, when many of us will see highs in the low 90s. 

The humidity will remain awful. On the bright side, I suppose, high pressure will ensure that thunderstorms will probably remain few and far between Tuesday and Wednesday. But the slightest little trigger in this kind of weather can pop up a slow moving storm with torrential downpours, so we won't be completely out the woods. 

THE END?

A slightly better cold front than that poor excuse for today's weather front seems like it wants to approach us later Thursday or Friday. We'll have to watch that one for heavy rains and a flood risk again toward the end of the week. But it looks like temperatures and humidity should fall to near normal levels by the weekend. 

That "normal" is  the new normal of course. In this climate changed world, normal high and low temperatures are higher than they once were. This time of year "normal" highs and lows in Burlington are deemed at 83/63.   The normal high and low in Burlington in mid-July a few decades ago was 80/59.

The Flood And Heat Train Rolls On In Nation And Here In Vermont

The sky over South Burlington, Vermont looked
pretty unstable this morning, hinting at how
the lingering warmth and humidity will trigger
additional rounds of scattered storms today. 
Northern New York today looks most at risk
for local flash floods. 

Across the U.S. the flooding keeps striking, So does the humidity and heat in the East

 Let's get run through today's headlines and then go into details. 

FLOOD: Many areas under the gun this weekend. Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and New York are most under the gun today. 

HERE IN VERMONT:  The heat and humidity continue. Watching for our own risk of some local flash flooding and strong storms today and tomorrow

BIG RECORD TIED: Vermont ties record for the most consecutive weekends with rain

So let's get into the details

NATIONAL FLOODING CONTINUES TOLL

Saturday, it was Oklahoma, among other places, especially in and around Oklahoma City. It brought us the familiar scenes of blinding rain, stranded cars in deep water and water rescues.

Meanwhile, central Texas, including the Hill Country, is seriously under the gun again today. Flash flood warnings are in effect for a broad area of the state, and in parts of the area where more than 100 people died in flooding last weekend. 

Some places have gotten more than six inches of rain, and it's still pouring. Still, the amounts that are coming down aren't quite as extreme as last weekend. Plus, Texans are on high alert, given what has already happened. 

For the rest of today, renewed flash flooding is likely in New Mexico, scene of some horrible floods and debris flows around Ruidoso last week that killed three and severely damaged or destroyed at least 59 homes 

Slow moving or repeated thunderstorms in a wide band from central Virginia to the Adirondacks of New York are expected to create areas of dangerous flash flooding later today, It's impossible to know exactly where in this band the worst of it will be. Just depends on where thunderstorms set up

 VERMONT: MORE HEAT, CONTINUED LOCAL FLOOD RISK

Vermont is on the eastern edge of that risk zone for flash flooding today. 

As of early this afternoon we're starting to watch  eastern New York, including the Adirondacks for the higher risk of locally severe storms and pockets of flash flooding.  That risk in the Adirondacks should start to fire up by mid-afternoon. 

Here in Vermont, some loud thunderstorms erupted this morning in the far northwest corner of Vermont. That might have created a "pre-soak" environment for other storms later today. 

The morning storms also demonstrated how easy it is to fire up storms in such a humid environment. That humidity ensures storms could fire up anywhere during the day.  Between now and late afternoon, they should be pretty random in Vermont, maybe firing up over the mountains and hills, and then slowly moving off into the valleys.

Those slow moving thunderstorms could cause isolated pockets of flash flooding, but the risk is quite low.  The storms drifting in from that heavier, more dangerous activity in New York could trigger some flash flood risk this evening north of Route 2 and west of the Green Mountains. That might be especially true up by Alburgh, Swanton and Highgate, places like that, which got drenched early today. 

Whether or not you get a storm, today will be uncomfortable everywhere. It might be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday, because of the extra clouds around. There's also a breeze in the Champlain Valley, which is helping a little.

Burlington got above 90 degrees again Saturday, for the seventh time this summer so far. I'm guessing Burlington will fall short of 90 degrees today. But who knows? With a long enough period of sun, it could make it to that level again. But even if it doesn't, dew points between 65 and 70 degrees will ensure we're sweating - whether to the oldies or not. 

 MONDAY

The warmth and humidity grind on, as that weather front slowly stumbles across Vermont. It will be another day of showers and thunderstorms 

The risk tomorrow will come if several storms move one after another over the same area as the move parallel to that weak front. That puts us in another what is for now a low level marginal risk of flash flooding.

We'll need to watch trends, though. If updated forecasts call for more storms than forecast, or the storms move more slowly than we expect, that could boost the flash flood risk a bit.

We'll have updates tomorrow morning, of course!  

This hot weather will keep rolling on with seemingly no end in sight.  There is an end in sight, though.

Tuesday and Wednesday look really hot, with a couple more days with 90 degree temperatures. At least as far as I can tell today, it looks like the risk of storms goes down both days, but doesn't completely go away. 

Another, more juicy cold front should approach Thursday. We'll have to watch that day in case more heavy rain wants to break out. After that, early hints suggest - FINALLY - cooler and less humid air arriving maybe on Friday.   

 RAINY WEEKEND RECORD

Some of those northwest Vermont showers and thunderstorms brushed past the National Weather Service office in South Burlington this morning. Enough to drop 0.09 inches of rain, ensuring this weekend is now the 30th consecutive with at least some precipitation. 

This ties the record for most consecutive "wet" weekends, first set between September 1, 1934 and March 23, 1935. 

 It's obviously too soon to know whether we'll break the record next weekend. Early guesses call for a cooler, much less humid spell next weekend, which might minimize the chances of showers.  But we've seen the forecast change radically in the past. There's no reason it can't happen again. 

U.S. Summer Of Flash Flood Roars On, Flash Flood "Emergencies" Soar; Vermont On Guard For More Potential Trouble

A large severe-warned storm erupts over the northern
Green Mountains on Thursday. If this type of storm
moves slowly enough, flash floods can develop.
There is a minimal risk of flash floods today
and some risk Sunday night and Monday in Vermont. 

Weather alerts that are worded as as "flash flood emergencies" are rare, accounting for maybe one percent of all flash flood warnings. 

All flash floods are dangerous, but when you hear "flash flood emergency" you know you are in deep trouble - and probably deep water. 

When the National Weather Service issues a flash flood emergency, it's a dire warning telling the public that a catastrophic flood with an extreme threat to life and property is either ongoing or about to happen any minute. 

As extreme rains ramp up, in large part due to climate change, those flash flood emergencies are increasing. There were at least 91 such emergencies in 2024, a record high. 

Vermont is not immune from these emergencies. One was declare in the Northeast Kingdom during the July 30, 2024 floods up there. Emergencies were declared in Vermont in the July, 2023 floods as well. No flash flood emergencies were declared in the Northeast Kingdom flash flooding we had this week. 

We don't have figures for this year, but flash flood emergencies have been declared incredibly frequently in recent weeks. Such an emergency was declared in central Texas for the extreme and deadly July 4 weekend floods there. Another flash flood emergency was declared in Ruidoso, New Mexico on Tuesday as walls of water rushed down from wildfire burn scars above town. 

Just yesterday, another flash flood emergency was declared in and around Davenport, Iowa as intense rains flooded streets, homes and businesses there. 

Expect more of this. A humid air mass has enveloped most of the eastern half to two thirds of the United States. Dew points are practically off the charts in some spots. Any little weather disturbance can touch off a big local flood, especially since there's no large scale storms or fronts to move things along. Things are just sitting there. 

Today, huge parts of Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma are especially prone to flash flooding. In some places in that broad area, significant, big flash floods are possible today. 

VERMONT RISK

Here in Vermont, we're relatively safe, but definitely not off the hook. With high humidity in place and not much wind to move the inevitable thunderstorms around, there's always the risk of a local flood problem. 

This is going to seem like a broken record until the very humid weather pattern breaks down. We've had hotter, more humid summers lately, and that increases the flash flood risk.

You'll probably get sick of me telling you almost daily about a low but real flash flood risk. But it's unavoidable. And of course, we have to stay on our toes with these things. We'll just keep up with the details each day as forecasts develop,

Today

There's a very low but not zero chance of a local problem today, especially in southern Vermont, where thunderstorms might be a little more numerous this afternoon and evening than in the north.  All of Vermont is under a marginal risk for flash floods today, the lowest of four alert levels. 

There's already been a couple isolated storms here and there early today. A flood advisory was in effect early in the day for the northwest corner of New Hampshire near the Vermont border because of overnight storms. A complex of storms, which seemed to be weakening as of 7 a.m. was approach southwest Vermont from New York State. 

Storms will redevelop in hit and miss fashion this afternoon. 

Many places won't see any rain at all, but a few rogue thunderstorms could sit and dump an enormous rain in a short amount of time in one or two spots. That's where you get your isolated flood problems. 

Meanwhile, highs will get well into the 80s to near 90. The 90 degree readings will hit in broader valleys that either don't see a thunderstorm at all or, ,the showers hold off until late in the day. 

Sunday/Monday

The heat and humidity goes on Sunday, with very humid air and highs once again reaching the 80s to near 90.

A couple random thunderstorms could erupt any time Sunday, but most will hold off until Sunday night and Monday. 

We're watching late Sunday into Monday closely.  A weak weather front will slowly approach and then begrudgingly limp through Vermont overnight Sunday and during the day Monday. 

Moisture should really pool ahead of this front, providing a lot of fuel for showers and thunderstorms. With all that wet air, and storms sluggishly moving parallel to the front, we could see some more spot problems with downpours bad enough to once again touch off a few local flash flood problems. 

This is one to watch for future updates. If things speed up, then that reduces the problems. If the front stalls over us, or just barely to the west, that could set off heavier rain.

We're up against another hot, humid week coming up, which means more scattered storms. The approach of a cold front Thursday or Friday will probably grow more storms, so that's the time period to be on alert again after Monday.  

Latest Vermont Flood: Details Emerge As Questions Grow About FEMA

Map of rainfall yesterday in Vermont, from data 
collected by the National Weather Service in 
South Burlington. Heavy rains were confined
to parts of the Northeast Kingdom, and a 
couple spotty areas in central Vermont. 

For the third year in a row, some Vermonters are picking up the pieces today after yet another flash flood. 

The tiny town of Northeast Kingdom town of Sutton, population of less than 1,000, appears to be the hardest hit. The good news is that so far, I haven't heard of any serious injuries with this latest flood. 

But the damage was also scattered around the state. A large section of the Middlebury Union High School roof was torn off by intense thunderstorm winds on Thursday. The roof damage allowed some of torrential rains with the storm pour into the boy's locker room, cafeteria and auditorium. 

Officials at the school said the interior damage was thankfully not severe. 

Flood damage was still being tallied in West Burke, East Haven and other Northeast Kingdom towns, along with some spots in Addison County.  But Sutton took the brunt of it. Video from Live Storms Media showed water racing across a road near Sutton, forming a waterfall on one side where the road had washed away. 

 Vermont Public reports that the swift water rescue in Sutton involved a couple and their dog, who were pulled off their roof by the rescue group during the flood. 

Rainfall was highly variable and highly localized. Only a few places received torrents of rain. Many  Vermont towns received little or no rain yesterday. 

The disparity was evident even within the counties hit hardest. West Burke in Caledonia County reported 5.12 inches of rain. But in the opposite end of the county, Wells River and Barton saw only 0.04 inches.  

This is a map of rainfall in the July, 2023 flood. As you
can see here, that one affected pretty much the whole
state, not just a few areas. Pink and purple areas had
at least five inches of rain. Compared to yesterday,
July 23 was many times worse. 

Slow moving thunderstorms parking over certain towns were to blame. Disconcertingly, that same issue of stalled downpours has arisen today. But the storms are very few and far between, and smaller in size than yesterday's.   

If any new flash flooding develops late this afternoon or this evening, it will be highly isolated. However, we're still looking at low but not zero chances of isolated flash flooding Saturday, Sunday and Monday. 

That the chances of new flooding are - fingers crossed - low is good news, as some towns already have a ton of damage. 

Further details from Vermont Public:

"Roughly 20 homes in the Caledonia County town remained cut off from road access as of Friday morning, according to the town fire chief. Town officials said they've made contact with most of these homeowners, but expect it will take several days to make these roads passable.

The storm overwhelmed many of Sutton's roads, culverts and ditches and damaged several homes along Calendar Brook Road. 

According to initial estimates, repairs to the town infrastructure could cost upward of a million dollars - after Sutton has already spent millions on recovery from previous floods."

I don't think anybody knows where Sutton - and other affected towns in the Northeast Kingdom will get the money to fix damage from the latest calamity. 

This is especially true with the Federal Emergency Management Agency's future in doubt. 

FEMA AND VERMONT

We won't know for awhile yet whether the damage in Vermont would qualify for federal assistance even under the "old rules" for federal assistance that were in effect before Donald Trump took office in January. 

Even if Vermont qualifies for help under those old rules, who knows whether we'll receive it? Everything Trumpian is subject to his whims, and information and plans shift like the breeze.

Trump has said he wants to abolish FEMA. Or change it. Or shift all the responsibility to the states. 

Today, as Trump headed to Texas to survey damage from a deadly Fourth of July flood that was many, many orders of magnitude worse than what Vermont saw, his administration's previous vows to abolish FEMA are wavering. 

Per today's Washington Post:

"A senior White House official told the Washington Post that no official action is being taken to wind down FEMA, and that changes in the agency will probably amount to a 'rebranding' that will emphasize state leaders' roles in disaster response."

In other words, nobody has a clue what will happen. 

Which is the question everybody including Vermonters who would deal with disasters are asking. .  

Per Vermont Public: 

"State and national experts say only one thing is clear as of now: The new federal administration wants states to assume a bigger role in disaster response and recovery. The ambiguity over what that looks like, according to Eric Forand, director of Vermont Emergency Management, has complicated the business of disaster preparedness for state officials trying to gird for the next catastrophe."

Given Vermont's track record, this is really an important question.

Vermont Public had an eye-opening stat: 

"Vermont, which has experienced 25 federal disaster declarations since 2011, has been particularly reliant on federal aid. According to a recent analysis, the state has received more federal disaster assistance per capita over the past 14 years than any states but Louisiana, Hawaii, and New York."

There's no reason to think that trend will stop. Vermont is a flood-prone state. Climate change will continue to intensify storms, so more big floods are inevitable. We've already had two damaging flash floods this year, and we're only now getting into the peak of what you might call peak flash flood season.

Those humid July and August dog days can really produce those downpours. More so with climate change. 

 The theoretical solution for this entire mess is for the state, and disaster-prone towns to build up a rainy day fun to deal with inevitable future disasters. 

Good luck with that. The floods of 2023 and 2024 cost several individual towns more money than their entire annual budget. I'm pretty sure local taxpayers can't hand over twice the amount or more they've been paying already. 

We're lucky yesterday wasn't as bad as it could have been.

But still, we're screwed.